NBA PlayOffs 2022- First Round, Game 1-4 Picks
Over the coming years I am expecting the Commissioner to make some changes to the way the NBA regular season is put together. The in-season tournament looks to be gaining traction, while the Play In Tournament has been a success over the last couple of years and is certain to stay.
Adam Silver wants his League to have the best players on view every time teams step foot on the court, but that means the 82 game regular season has to be changed. It is something that the NBA will be working on, but right now the focus is on the NBA PlayOffs with the First Round beginning this weekend.
There are some top Series that are going to be played, headlined by the Boston Celtics facing the Brooklyn Nets, and the games will be played across the next couple of months to decide the next Champion.
I am going to split the NBA Picks into a couple of threads for the First Round PlayOffs to ensure threads do not get overloaded. Game 1 through 4 will be covered here and any Series that need to move onto Game 5-7 will be placed in a new thread.
We should be ready for some good Basketball over the coming weeks and it's easy for me as neutral to enjoy these times with my New York Knicks watching from home.
Saturday 16th April
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Game 1 Pick: The opening game of the official NBA PlayOffs will be a First Round Game 1 between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.
On paper this looked a fascinating Series, but things have changed significantly at the end of the regular season when Luka Doncic went down with an injury. It is definitely going to cost him Game 1 and the Dallas Mavericks will be praying that their star player is able to recover really quickly.
It is an injury that swings the momentum in favour of the Utah Jazz and they have to believe they can leave Dallas with a split of the first two games at a minimum. The Jazz have lost both games played in Dallas in the regular season and both of those were only played as recently as March, but you cannot ignore the fact that it was Luka Doncic who scored a combined 67 points in those wins and added to those numbers 12 Assists and 26 Rebounds.
Those are numbers that simply cannot be made up by the rest of the roster who are very much reliant on Luka Doncic and the pressure will increase significantly on Spencer Dinwiddie and the other role players on the team. The creativity and star quality of Luka Doncic will be missing and also allows a strong Utah Defensive team to feel they will be able to largely contain the threat of the Dallas Mavericks in this opening game.
Utah have plenty of star players of their own, but this is a team that is happy to share the points around and take what is given to them. Now we have reached the PlayOffs, the Jazz would love to see Donovan Mitchell step his level and begin to take games over, while they did end the regular season feeling like they have stepped up the intensity on the Defensive side of the court.
It could be key to this game as Utah look to take home court advantage away from the Number 4 Seed, but the Jazz do need their star players to just pick up the pace Offensively. Rumours about the team going into a rebuild if they fail to have a big impact in the PlayOffs doesn't help anybody, and especially knowing that pressure will ramp up if they are beaten in this First Round Series, but this is a big chance for Utah.
Without the playmaking skills of Luka Doncic, you have to believe the Dallas three point shooters won't have the spaces they have enjoyed when top name has been on the court. That should help Utah a little more, while the Jazz should have an edge when it comes to the rebounding numbers.
They lost narrowly in their two visits to Dallas in March with Luka Doncic in the line up and I do think the Jazz can come out and win Game 1, although they have to respect the Mavericks and play with focus.
Backing them to cover here not easy when you look at the Utah record against the spread against the best teams in the NBA- those numbers are poor both at home and on the road.
Dallas have not played badly without Luka Doncic this season and have a respectable 8-9 record considering the impact you may expect without him. That includes a loss in Utah by just four points, but Dallas struggled with their Offensive output in that one and I am expecting something similar to occur in Game 1.
The Mavericks were 2-7 without Luka Doncic against teams that have made the Play In Tournament at the least this season and I think Utah will be able to make enough plays to silence the crowd and cover this mark. It doesn't feel great backing the Jazz as a road favourite, considering they have lost five of their last seven outright in that spot, but you have to believe they won't have a better chance to beat this Dallas Mavericks team.
It has been a struggle without Luka Doncic as a home underdog for the Dallas Mavericks and I think that shows up here, although the game will be close right down to the Fourth Quarter.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzles Game 1 Pick: So what is more important? A team trying to recover after an emotionally charged win to earn a spot in the PlayOffs, or one that has been rested and will be looking to shake off the long layoff and get into post-season Basketball mood immediately?
Resting starters to round out the regular season means the Number 2 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies have not played much competitive Basketball for almost ten days. The Play In Tournament means that layoff feels much longer than in previous years for those that have earned First Round spots with a top six finish in their Conference, but teams who made it through from the Play In struggled in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs last season.
That is only a small sample of games and in the years ahead we will really begin to work out how much of an impact the one or two games played prior to the PlayOffs beginning affects teams playing in Game 1. Last season those teams went 1-3, although the Memphis Grizzlies will know how momentum can carry over being the sole winner having won two Play In games to enter the First Round.
It is what the Minnesota Timberwolves will be hoping to do having beaten the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday, but it was a hugely emotional occasion. Karl-Anthony Towns had a poor game and fouled out relatively early, but the role players all stepped up and the team were not afraid to show how much it meant to them.
There does feel enough time for the Timberwolves to have recovered from the effort needed to make the First Round, but playing on the road in the PlayOffs is a vastly different experience. In saying that, Minnesota have played a couple of close games here in Memphis in the regular season even if they ultimately came up short both times.
Offensively the Timberwolves have a team that can cause problems for any as they showed against the tough Clippers Defensive schemes, and this Grizzles young team have shown they can be attacked with confidence.
The feeling is that it will be a high-scoring game considering how well the Grizzlies have played Offensively and the difficulty Minnesota have had in creating enough stops. They did force the Clippers to go cold from the field a couple of times in their Play In win, but this Grizzlies team is a different force and will feel they are a team that can shoot well enough from the three point range to hurt Minnesota.
I can't help shake an image that it may take the Grizzlies some time to get their eye in having rested their starters for as long as they have. Even in their regular season wins, Memphis needed Overtime to win by 7 points and won the other by just 8 points which is making this number of points being given to the Minnesota Timberwolves look tempting.
It is not easy to oppose the Grizzlies when you see how productive they have been at home and how strong they have been as a big favourite. Add in the fact that the Timberwolves have struggled in those games where they have been set as a big underdog and the emotional win and it can be difficult to trust them, but Minnesota have the scoring power to keep this close if there is any kind of rustiness with the Memphis players returning off a rest.
There is also a pressure of expectation on the young Grizzlies team having made the PlayOffs as the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference and it may add up to a close win for the home team. It could be a tough watch for Timberwolves backers if they make a slow start, especially if Memphis get motoring, but I think Minnesota can make the points count with Towns expected to be more of a factor and with their ability to score plenty of points.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 1 Pick: You wouldn't really want to get into an argument with Shaquille O'Neal, but I am surprised he thinks the Philadelphia 76ers are going to sweep past the Toronto Raptors in this First Round Series. For starters the 76ers lost three of their four regular season games against the Raptors and they are also going to have to visit Canada which has strict rules about which athletes can and cannot enter the country.
James Harden and Joel Embiid may be the two big names on the court and both may play for the Philadelphia 76ers, but this Toronto Raptors team is scrappy even if someway short of the talent that won the NBA Championship in 2019.
Both teams ended the regular season playing some strong Basketball and I do think the 76ers are notorious for falling short in the PlayOffs with James Harden a player that has come up short in some big moments throughout his career. He has yet to really settle with the 76ers too, but I do think the Offensive spark from Philadelphia will mean they are likely to find four wins in this Series to progress to the Conference Semi Finals.
Nothing will come easy for them, but the 76ers have been strong at home and they do have their full complement of players here. Much could depend on the players around Joel Embiid, who is going to get his numbers, and whether they can find their shooting stroke for long enough in the post-season to have a deep run.
In this Game 1 I do think playing at home is important for Philadelphia to make a strong start and they are facing a Toronto Raptors team that did have one or two issues Defensively down the stretch. Struggles to contain teams could be a major problem against the 76ers if Philadelphia are on their game Offensively and this could give the home team the edge.
There is nothing but respect for the hard work that the Toronto Raptors put in to secure a top six finish in the Eastern Conference and Nick Nurse is the kind of Head Coach that extracts everything from the players working for him. They clearly enjoy working with Nurse too and Toronto have been consistent Offensively with a transition team capable of hurting opponents.
When looking at the spread numbers, the 76ers are a team that you want to oppose as they tend to be overrated, while Toronto have a very strong record at the window when playing with points. They won here in March, so playing here will offer no fears, but I do think they may come up short in this road game with the historical struggles the Raptors have had in Game 1s of any Series they have played.
Number 4 Seeds have been a terrible back in the PlayOffs in recent years and Philadelphia are a pretty poor team to get behind, but I do think the emotion of the crowd can help them through Game 1 with some late plays seeing them pull clear. Recent trends do go against the 76ers, but it may be something to keep in mind as the Series develops and I will look for them to cover in this opening game of the First Round.
Sunday 17th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: Winning two consecutive Play In Tournament games has pushed the Atlanta Hawks into the First Round of the PlayOffs and they will be feeling pretty good about themselves after those victories over the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers.
This is going to be a much greater challenge for the Hawks as they take on the Number 1 Seeds in the Eastern Conference, but the Hawks have momentum.
They are also going to be facing a Miami Heat team that have not played a competitive game for around ten days with a number of starters rested for the final regular season game. As mentioned before, I do think the layoff from competition can hurt the higher Seeded teams in the opening games of the First Round, especially if facing a team that has come through two Play In Tournament games.
Even then, it would be an upset if the Atlanta Hawks are able to replicate their run to the Eastern Conference Finals to match last season. They are the underdog in this opening Series and will need all of Trae Young's special moments to push the Miami Heat.
It cannot be ignored that the Hawks have not been the same quality of team on the road as they have at home, while they ave been a pretty poor big underdog to back. Mentally they have to overcome the fact they have lost three of the four regular season meetings with the top Seeded Miami Heat, although the last two losses have been by narrow margins and it suggests the Hawks can be competitive.
Being without John Collins is another blow, but Atlanta have been shooting the ball pretty efficiently and the Miami Heat are going to have to pick up their levels now we are into the post-season. The Heat have the players to do that, but I do think momentum is with the Hawks and they can push their hosts all the way in Game 1.
A problem for Atlanta is they cannot be as loose with their own Defensive performance as they were early on in the win over the Cavaliers a few days ago. They were in a big hole early and the Miami Heat are not going to be as fragile as Cleveland were, but the Hawks have struggled Defensively and could be without Clint Capela too.
I have to be aware of the poor record the Hawks have as the road underdog, but I do think they have matched up well with the Miami Heat and this is plenty of points to be receiving.
Miami are a very good team and will be a test, but I am just going to be looking for the Hawks to put enough scoring on the board to at least keep this one close.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: If you can only pick one First Round Series to watch in its entirety in the NBA PlayOffs in 2022, it has to be the rematch between the Boston Celtics and the Brooklyn Nets. A relatively poor regular season meant the Nets had to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Play In Tournament to secure a Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but that was always going to lead to a very tough First Round Series.
Some teams may have been thinking about that and not pushing for a top two Seed in the East knowing there was a huge chance they would have to face the Brooklyn Nets very early in the post-season. However, a team like the Boston Celtics want to step up for the challenge as they look to earn a measure of revenge for the 4-1 First Round Series defeat twelve months ago.
There is no doubt that the Boston Celtics would have felt even stronger about their chances of winning this Series if Robert Williams III had not suffered a late season injury. The feeling is that the strong Defensive player is going to be back at some point in this Series, but he has been ruled out in Game 1 and that is a blow when facing up to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Both players had a major impact in the Play In win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, but Brooklyn were not at their best that day and allowed the game to be much closer than it should have been. It suggests the role players need to have a greater impact if they are going to beat the Celtics, while Brooklyn continue to wait on Ben Simmons since his trade from the Philadelphia 76ers.
It is going to be a test for Durant and Irving throughout this Series when you think of how tough the Boston Celtics have continued to Defend even without Robert Williams III and I do think that can give the home team an edge. Unlike many other higher Seeded teams, Boston played hard right through to the end of the regular season and Brooklyn only played one Play In Tournament game which should mean rustiness is not a major factor for the Celtics.
I have to have respect for how well the Brooklyn Nets have played when they have been given the points as a relatively small underdog.
They have the scoring power to win any NBA game, but Boston have looked as good as any team in the League over the last three months. Home court could be vital throughout this First Round Series and the Boston Celtics are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite.
I think the Boston Celtics will be well prepared for this game and they are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four when playing on three or more days rest. I expect the Defensive intensity to provide the edge for the Celtics who won the last three regular season meetings between these teams and I will look for Boston to open Game 1 with a cover.
Monday 18th April
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 2 Pick: A blowout loss in Game 1 still only means one loss for the Toronto Raptors, but bouncing back in Game 2 has become much more difficult as injuries looking to be hurting the road team before they head back to Canada.
Gary Trent, Thaddeus Young and Scottie Barnes could all be missing from the rotation and hurting the depth of the Toronto Raptors. After losing by 20 points in Game 1, the Raptors are under pressure to make some adjustments, but that becomes much tougher when you are missing some key players in the rotation like they are set to do on Monday.
Even then, I am expecting a reaction from the Toronto Raptors who are under the guidance of Head Coach Nick Nurse, a Coach that is coveted by the Los Angeles Lakers if rumours are to be believed. That underlines how highly respected this Head Coach is in the NBA and I do think he will get his players ready for Game 2 and I expect the Toronto Raptors to be much more competitive.
With that in mind you may think the extra amount of points being given to the Raptors between Game 1 and Game 2 might be appealing, but teams coming off blowout losses in the PlayOffs do tend to struggle against the spread in their next game.
The 76ers will also be expecting a much better all around effort from their visitors in this First Round Series- Tyrese Maxey was the star of Game 1, but the 76ers will be looking for a bit more from Joel Embiid who did not have the best shooting day.
Overall the Philadelphia 76ers are shooting the ball well and I think that continues with the Raptors missing someone like Scottie Barnes from the line up. It should give them enough to see off the Raptors who won't want to get into a scoring fight with a team like the 76ers who have a number of different ways to get to the bucket.
Toronto have been a team that have bounced back from defeats to produce a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five in that spot, while the Raptors are a pretty good underdog to back too. That has to be respected as well as the fact that the 76ers have tended to be overrated at times by the oddsmakers who know they will get public money on a star studded team like Philadelphia.
However, teams coming in off a blowout loss in the NBA PlayOffs are just 52-77-3 against the spread over the last seven years.
Another trend that favours the 76ers is that home teams who have won Game 1 have followed up with a 20-7 record against the spread in Game 2 since 2016 and I do think Philadelphia can ride the momentum in front of their own fans to win and cover again.
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Game 2 Pick: It has become a poor habit to get into, but at least the Utah Jazz were able to hold themselves together for just long enough to edge out the Dallas Mavericks having blown another big lead. A late miss turned the tide in favour of the Jazz, who almost fell behind with less than ninety seconds left, but Donovan Mitchell closed the show at the Free Throw line to underline a strong second half.
The win means stealing home court away from the Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz will be looking to make hay while the sun is shining. Luke Doncic is set to miss Game 2 for the Mavericks, but the big time superstar could return when the Series moves to Salt Lake City and so it is key for the Utah Jazz to try and take a stranglehold of this First Round match up.
Defensively the Jazz have done what they needed to do in Game 1, but there is room for improvement on the Offensive side of the court. Rudy Gobert was almost a non-factor on the Offensive side, but his big plays Defensively remain important to the Utah Jazz and they will be looking for a bit more out of him at both ends.
Donovan Mitchell made a poor start to the Series, but his second half display gives him something to build upon as Utah look to take another game on the road. There is no doubt that the role players have to make more of an impact in the game if Utah are going to win this game with less tension on them, but it has become a feature for the team to become embroiled in closer games than they should be and has to be factored into any selection made when they play.
The Mavericks will know how much they miss Luka Doncic, but they will also believe they played well enough in Game 1 and had their chances to steal the game as the home favourite. They were only beaten by 6 points despite being dominated on the boards and Dallas have made a point to mention the amount of Free Throws that were also missed.
Ultimately you do have to think that Dallas need a lot to go right for them to win a game against Utah without Luke Doncic in the line up. They are going with a small line up which makes it tough to beat the Utah Jazz around the boards, while the players in the rotation have not always been used to having the kind of pressure on their shoulders that Luka Doncic will usually carry for them.
Stronger shooting from the three point arc will help, but Dallas are facing pressures without Luka Doncic and I think that will see the Jazz come through with another narrow cover as they earned in Game 1.
There is no doubt that the Jazz are tough to trust as a road favourite considering their ability to allow teams to close into games even once building a big lead. However, Dallas are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and coming off a PlayOff loss at home has been a challenge for teams in the First Round.
Road favourites of at least 4.5 points have gone 29-12-1 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs with the Utah Jazz adding to that with their own victory in Game 1 and I think they use their size to make enough plays late on to cover again.
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: Considering the injuries that the Denver Nuggets have been dealing with all season, merely getting into the top six of the Western Conference has to be seen as a top achievement. They were blown out in Game 1 of the First Round Series with the Golden State Warriors, but the Nuggets have shown fight all season against the odds and I have no doubt that Steve Kerr and his players will be well aware that his Series is far from over.
Holding onto home court is the only thing the Warriors have to be thinking about and I do think they are playing with a bit more confidence and with a few more players that are capable of taking over a game.
Having Steph Curry back was an obvious bonus for Golden State and he may be given a few more minutes in this one, although likely to be playing off the bench to start. He still produced 16 points, while Jordan Peele had a huge Game 1 and is likely to have a chance to back that up being at home rather than on the road where role players can fall short.
It may have been a contributory factor against the Denver Nuggets who had a big outing from Nikola Jokic and Will Barton, but who didn't really have anyone else who stepped up to back them up. Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray may soon return from long-term injury issues, but the Denver Nuggets won't risk them if it means hurting for next season and if they are out of this First Round Series.
Defensively there have been issues for Denver all season and much of their successes have been able to find someone to take the scoring role next to Jokic. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they are facing a strong Defensive team in the Warriors and that may seen them worn down in this Series.
The Nuggets have been a team that have rallied from big losses, but the PlayOffs is a tough environment to do that and they may not be able to cover up their Defensive problems against a much healthier Golden State Warriors team.
There are some PlayOff trends that say teams off a blowout loss have really struggled to be competitive in their next game, while the Golden State Warriors will look to be the latest home team that wins both games at home to open a First Round Series. Those teams who have won Game 1 at home have followed up with a strong 20-7 record against the spread in Game 2 over the last six years and I think the Warriors shooting power gives them the edge to move over this mark again.
Tuesday 19th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: In recent years there has been a trend where teams who have lost by a blowout have struggled to pick themselves up quickly enough in the PlayOffs. A bigger one in recent seasons is the fact that higher Seeds who have won Game 1 at home have tended to back that up in Game 2 with another victory, while also going against the age-old zigzag theory with those home teams also covering the spread in 74% of Game 2s since 2016.
You can add the Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors to that mark and next up is the Miami Heat who hammered the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1.
Adjustments will always be made by both Coaching staffs, while the Miami Heat have no doubt that Trae Young is going to have a much bigger impact in Game 2 compared with his 1/12 effort from the field in Game 1. You also have to expect the Hawks to be much stronger from the three point arc having hit just 28% of their shots from the distance in Game 1 and that should mean this game is closer than the 24 point defeat suffered in the first game of this First Round Series.
The return of John Collins will have helped the Hawks who are missing Clint Capela, but his minutes are likely to still be limited and he will be expected to boost the bench unit. Losing Capela is a real blow though, and it was a key reason Miami were able to win the battle on the boards considering they had been out-hustled in the rebounding numbers in each of the last two regular season games against the Atlanta Hawks.
Making up for the absence of Clint Capela will be a challenge, but I would expect the Hawks to shoot the ball much better than they did in Game 1. However, they also have to accept the fact they are playing the Number 1 Seed with a solid Defensive rotation and the intensity of the PlayOffs may just have focused the Miami Heat even further.
The Heat will obviously feel very happy with their opening performance in the PlayOffs, but they are going to know there is room for improvement on their part too. Duncan Robinson was the star off the bench, but Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry can do even more, while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were non-factors in Game 1 and that is not something you will say too often.
They shot the ball much better than the Hawks in Game 1, but the Heat will believe their efficiency is at least sustainable against an Atlanta Defensive scheme which has struggled down the stretch. The Hawks are also not the same team on the road as they are at home, and they dropped to 6-20 against the spread in their last twenty-six as the road underdog when they were blown out in Game 1.
With the Heat covering in their last four as the home favourite, I think they can do the same here with a similar spread to the opening game of this First Round Series. As mentioned, the zigzag theory has not really been working against home teams that have won Game 1 in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent seasons and I think the Miami Heat will likely manage to win this one by double digits, albeit not by the same margin as they secured over the weekend.
Atlanta are experienced and have dangerous shooters to take the game away from any opponent, but losing Clint Capela is a blow and I am not sure they can stand up Defensively to this Miami Heat team who have more to give.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 2 Pick: You can't win or lose a Series in the NBA PlayOffs after a single game has been played, but there is no doubt that the momentum is going to feel like it is firmly behind the Minnesota Timberwolves. The upset win on the road means they have stolen home court from the Memphis Grizzlies, while the regular season games between these two teams were plenty competitive which will encourage the lower Seeded Timberwolves to believe they can earn the upset over the next couple of weeks.
The zigzag theory will suggest the right team to back in Game 2 is the Memphis Grizzlies who were beaten as a similar sized favourite over the weekend.
However, it has been a different story in recent years for those teams who have won their opening home game compared with those who have lost those. Since 2016, teams winning their Game 1 at home have been a very productive team to back against the spread in Game 2 as well, but those who have lost have followed up with a 3-8-1 record against the spread in Game 2 since 2013.
It is rare to lose at home in Game 1 of the First Round of the PlayOffs so there is some real pressure on the Memphis Grizzlies who finished with the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. Last season they were beaten 4-1 in the First Round of the PlayOffs, but that was a time when the Grizzlies came through the Play In Tournament and they were swept after winning Game 1.
That should mean this current Grizzlies team are well aware of how quickly the First Round Series can be turned around, but this has been a tough match up for the Grizzlies throughout this season. One of the main reasons is that they have not been as secure as they would like Defensively and that should allow the Minnesota Timberwolves to pick up from where they left off on Saturday afternoon.
Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1, but the Timberwolves dominated the boards and that allowed them to pull clear in that one.
One area of adjustment you would expect to see in Game 2 is better shooting from the three point line for the Memphis Grizzlies who secured just 28% of shots from the distance to open this Series. That is well below the season mark and I do think Memphis will be better and that may be enough to win and level the Series, although Minnesota have been shooting very well and it is expected they can cover again.
Each of their three visits to Memphis have been competitive, and this may be a rare moment over the last couple of seasons where a team can cover even when they lose outright.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns Game 2 Pick: They dared Chris Paul to beat them with his scoring and the veteran responded in the only way he knows how as he helped the Phoenix Suns beat the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Number 1 Seeded Suns looked good after a slower start than expected against the Pelicans, who had won two competitive games to earn a spot as the Number 8 Seed through the Play In Tournament. I expect the rustiness to have been shaken off by the Suns who have had the better of New Orleans in the regular season and I expect them to cover again.
It is a big spread, but one that has come in by a point compared with Game 1 and I am sticking with the positive response of home teams that have won their opening First Round PlayOff game at home. This has been a developing trend and perhaps one that the layers are willing to risk knowing how many people put in a lot of stock into the zigzag theory in the PlayOffs.
The Suns have been a little too good more often than not when facing the Pelicans, but they will expect a better showing from New Orleans who struggled from the field.
CJ McCollum is going to have be a lot more efficient if he is going to help his team make this a competitive Series, but the question is whether he can also be given enough support by those around him. Ultimately they are going to have to try and match the potential scoring power of the Suns and I do think they will come up short again when we get down to the crunch of the Fourth Quarter.
A problem for New Orleans is that the Suns are an underrated Defensive team too and I expect them to make enough stops to become the latest team to win their opening two home games in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. The Suns have not always been the best at covering big spreads, but they are facing a New Orleans team who have struggled as a big underdog and who will know they need to play perfect games to stick with the Suns.
I think it is much tougher to do that on the road and Phoenix have plenty of Offensive options to take this game away from the Pelicans.
New Orleans are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and I will look for the Phoenix Suns to pull away late and cover this spread.
Wednesday 20th April
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: A huge Fourth Quarter comeback looked to have put the Brooklyn Nets on the brink of stealing Game 1 and home court advantage from the Boston Celtics. However, a buzzer beating layup from Jayson Tatum earned the Celtics the win and there has to be an emotional impact on the Brooklyn Nets having lost the game in the manner that they did.
Kyrie Irving was hearing it all from the Boston home crowd having left in such disappointing fashion from his time with the Celtics, and his response has produced a fine. That won't bother Irving too much, but he will be using the fine as fuel for a big response when the Nets return to the TD Garden for Game 2.
Brooklyn will feel there is more in the tank to come- Kevin Durant did not have the best PlayOff game, but is never far away from taking over, while Ben Simmons could be in the rotation this weekend when the Series returns home. They found gaps in the Boston Defense missing Robert Williams III and that absence is still a big blow for the Boston Celtics in a tough First Round Series.
You have to imagine Kevin Durant is going to have a more efficient day despite the work that the Boston Celtics are going to put in to make sure one of the top two names is not able to take over this game. However, the key for the Brooklyn Nets has to be to find a third player to have a big impact on the game and just give them an edge to try and level the Series.
Adjustments are going to be made by the Boston Celtics too in order to avoid another Fourth Quarter collapse. The Celtics have much more balance with the way they play Offensively and will have felt pretty happy about their overall performance, but even then there will be some concern that Game 1 ended up as close as it did.
I hate being on a public backed team, but I do think the Brooklyn Nets could be the right team to back even after the hurtful manner in which they lost the opening game of the First Round. Teams that have been beaten by 3 or fewer points in the First Round of the PlayOffs have been very productive against the spread in their next game in recent years and I do think the Nets will feel there is more to come from their side of the court.
The Nets have improved to 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog, while they are 14-6 against the spread in the last twenty against the Boston Celtics.
I do have to be a little concerned by how well First Round PlayOff teams have been able to hold serve when winning Game 1 at home, but the Boston Celtics may need to hold off a powerful Brooklyn Offensive unit again. This is not a lot of points, but teams who lost their last game by 3 or fewer points and then are set between a 5 point favourite and underdog in the next game have managed a ridiculous 17-2-2 record against the spread.
It is a trend favouring the Brooklyn Nets and I think they can be backed with the points.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 3 Pick: With the vaccination status as it is, Matisse Thybulle has largely been left as a bit part player for the Philadelphia 76ers and it has not stopped the higher Seeded team winning both home games to open this First Round Series.
While one of their better Defensive players will be left at home, the 76ers are looking to keep the foot down on the Toronto Raptors. The first two wins have been behind strong Offensive shooting, but also perhaps benefiting from playing at home with a number of trips to the Foul Line, although being on the road makes those calls much harder to get.
The 76ers have actually been a pretty strong road team all season and Joel Embiid looks to have escaped serious injury despite being in the wars in the Game 2 win earlier this week. A banged up knee and elbow is not set to keep Embiid from suiting up and trying to take the Philadelphia 76ers closer to the Conference Semi Finals.
Earning that spot as soon as possible and earning some rest has to be the motivation for the 76ers, but the Fourth Quarter display in Game 2 has offered the Toronto Raptors some encouragement. They outscored the 76ers in that Quarter and it has given the Raptors something to build upon, but they have to find a way to cool down the 76ers Offensively.
Role players do tend to have a much harder time shooting the ball on the road than at home so the 76ers could step back slightly from their opening two games, but James Harden and Joel Embiid are experienced and will be leading the team.
Nick Nurse has not been happy with the fouls being awarded against his team and his comments may make the officials a little more wary, especially on the road. That should help the Raptors keep this one closer, but they are missing some depth and that has been hurting Toronto throughout this First Round Series.
Teams returning home in a 0-2 hole can find it tough and they have a relatively poor record at 16-35 straight up in Game 3 of the First Round.
The Raptors did get the better of the regular season, but they split two games in Canada, while their performances in the first couple of games in this Series have underlined the inconsistencies Toronto have had for much of the year and down the stretch. I expect better shooting at home, but Scottie Barnes is a big absentee and the Raptors are struggling to find stops.
Philadelphia have not been a very good road favourite to back in recent weeks and the Raptors have been a very good home underdog, but this is a spread that should be small enough for the 76ers to continue their dominance of the Series. With the recent struggles of home teams that have lost the opening two games of their First Round Series on the road, I think the layers may have shrunk the spread too far in this one.
It is likely to be a much more competitive game than the first two games in this Series, but I will back the 76ers to cover on the road.
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: Foul trouble limited the impact Giannis Antetokounmpo could make in Game 1 of this First Round Series, but the Chicago Bulls missed a big opportunity when dropping the game to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Number 3 Seed will expect to be better all around when these teams meet in Game 2 on Wednesday and they are going to need to if they are able to take a 2-0 lead to Chicago.
While there is room for improvement as far as the Bucks are concerned, Chicago will feel they can only be better if their top three players come out with a better shooting day. DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine struggled with their efficiency and that was the main reason the Bulls failed to score more than 86 points.
I do expect those Bulls to be better, but I also think the Milwaukee Bucks will be a little more consistent having allowed their First Quarter lead to disappear and become embroiled in a closer game than they would have hoped.
Before the PlayOffs, the last two games between the Bucks and Bulls in the regular season ended in big wins for Milwaukee and I think they will be able to exert more control in Game 2. Winning the first game is a huge boost when not at your best and I can only expect the defending Champions to be stronger all around.
The Bucks have not been a team to back with confidence as a double digit favourite, but big favourites in the NBA PlayOffs First Round have generally been a good cover. They failed in Game 1, but I think the Milwaukee Bucks can find a way to cover in Game 2 and head to Chicago with momentum and the chance to close out the Series on the road.
Thursday 21st April
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: There is no sense of panic in the Minnesota Timberwolves after being blown out in Game 2, especially as they will feel they have done their job by returning home with a 1-1 split at the Memphis Grizzlies. That means home court has been stolen by the Number 7 Seed, but momentum may be with the Grizzlies who blew out the Timberwolves earlier this week.
Things got out of hand for the Timberwolves in Game 2, but they will feel they can clean up their own performance and that will give them a chance to bounce back. Turnovers have been a factor and the difference between Game 1 and Game 2 was the lack of turnovers in the second game for the Memphis Grizzlies which helped them pull clear.
Minnesota had a huge drop off with their shooting in Game 2, but playing at home can change the momentum of a Series. The players were disappointed with the performance, but they are also making the point that you need to win four games out of seven to progress and the Timberwolves will feel they can bounce back with the support behind them.
Despite winning in Game 2, Memphis will still believe they can improve and the main area has to be the three point shooting which has been below par in both of the games played in this Series. They are facing a Timberwolves team with length and intensity to get out and challenge those shooters, but you do think there is room for improvement for the Grizzlies as they look to find a way to return to Memphis with home court advantage restored at the very least.
Games between these teams have been competitive all season, but the Timberwolves did win both home games against Memphis.
It can be the home environment which can inspire the role players to really come into their own and that will encourage the Timberwolves after the letdown of dropping the last game in a blowout. The Timberwolves also had a poor showing from the three point arc in Game 2 and that is another area that could benefit from playing at home as the slight underdog looks to move ahead in this First Round Series.
Minnesota have not always been at their best as a narrow underdog, but they are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve games following a blowout loss and that will give the fans some real belief that their team will respond.
As much as I have been impressed by the Memphis Grizzlies throughout this season, they are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine road games. The Number 2 Seed are the better team, but the lower Seed has played well in recent Game 3s as long as they return home with a split of the opening two games like the Timberwolves have done.
Blowout losses can linger in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but I think Minnesota can bounce back effectively as the Memphis Grizzlies did in Game 2 and I will take the points with the Timberwolves.
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz Game 3 Pick: The Dallas Mavericks may have been without Luka Doncic, but they would have accepted a 1-1 tie with the Utah Jazz after the first couple of games in this First Round Series. Being without your best player makes things difficult for the Mavericks, but the bounce back performance in Game 2 will have helped the rest of the Mavericks even if they have to go without Luka Doncic again.
His status is Questionable for Game 3, but the Dallas Mavericks may decide to give Luka Doncic a few more days to really shake himself free of injury and get ready to try and take over the rest of this Series.
If Doncic had been available from Game 1, you would have made the Mavericks big favourites, but the Utah Jazz will be pretty pleased in coming back home at 1-1 with home court advantage stolen away from the Mavericks. They did not play well in Game 2 and Utah may feel they have missed out on not having swept the first couple of games considering the drop off the Mavericks have without Luka Doncic.
A much improved Dallas Offensive showing took the game away from a consistently inconsistent Utah team in Game 2, but the Jazz have to be feeling like they have serious edges that can be exploited. For starters they have dominated the boards in both of the first two games and Utah will feel they can be better at both ends of the court playing at home where the Jazz have been a much stronger team all season.
The Jazz have won both home games against the Mavericks in the regular season and it is a big ask of players like Jalen Brunson to produce the same efforts on the road as they have at home. Jalen Brunson had a huge Game 2 and the Dallas Mavericks needed all of that to edge to the win and the feeling is that these role players may struggle for consistency in this Game 3.
Utah have not always played well off a straight up loss, but they are 9-4-2 against the spread in their last fifteen games as the home favourite.
You can't ignore the fact that Dallas have some solid trends behind them too and they are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen as the underdog, but I think this is the one game in which they could miss Luka Doncic the most. I expect the superstar to return in Game 4 if he is not quite able to play in this one and I think the Utah Jazz can build on a recent trend that home teams in Game 3 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have had.
That trend is that teams favoured by 4 points or more at home in Game 3 have produced a 10-1 against the spread in the lsat eleven times that situation has come up. Teams who have split the first two games on the road in the First Round Series have also covered more often than not in Game 3 and I do think the Utah Jazz can make the adjustments needed to do that here, even against this big line.
Utah have been pretty consistent Offensively, but I do think they will be better on the Defensive side of the court at home and that could be enough to take a 2-1 lead in this First Round Series.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Game 3 Pick: This has a very similar feel to the Toronto Raptors-Philadelphia 76ers First Round Series in which the home team has won in dominant fashion twice at home before being set as a narrow favourite on the road.
It feels like a spread that is there to entice people to back the Golden State Warriors who may underestimate the importance of the shift in this Series from playing in comfortable settings to moving into a hostile environment. However, First Round teams that have lost Game 1 and Game 2 on the road have struggled in Game 3 in recent times with the layers setting a number where they expect a reaction from that team when they return home.
There is no doubt that the Golden State Warriors are the better team and they are much healthier than the Denver Nuggets who have been struggling for answers. You can get through the regular season dealing with injuries, but the PlayOff intensity really puts a magnifying glass over glaring holes and the Nuggets are massively missing Michael Porter Jr and Jamel Murray to give them other scoring options away from Nikola Jokic.
You do have to expect the struggling role players to be better at home, but even that may not be enough to hold off a confident Golden State Warriors team who are getting massive production from Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Jordan Poole.
Defensive issues down the stretch have really shown up in the first two games for the Denver Nuggets and I do think they will struggle to stop the Golden State Warriors.
A fast start from the hosts can be expected, but the Warriors are plenty experienced with playing road games in the PlayOffs and still have a core of players that reached multiple NBA Finals in succession. Those players have shown they can share the ball around and step up and I think the Warriors are likely to have too much Offensive output for the Denver Nuggets to deal with.
Golden State have not been at their best as a narrow favourite this season, while they are just 2- 5 against the spread in their last seven as a road favourite. It is a concern, but the Nuggets have not covered as the home underdog and I do think the Golden State Warriors will pull away in the second half as long as they stay with the Nuggets early.
Friday 22nd April
The last couple of nights have been frustrating to say the least.
Watching one underdog blow a huge lead is one thing, but to see that happen on back to back nights in almost historic fashion has really stung for the NBA PlayOff Picks.
To see a team up by 21 points with the Fourth Quarter and change left and knowing you have points in hand should be a comfortable position, but Minnesota, like Brooklyn, played an awful Fourth Quarter that proved to be very costly.
It feels like this has happened a few times already in the First Round with teams coming back and covering despite being outplayed for much of their games. You can't do much about that, you have to accept the way it goes, but that doesn't mean you can't be irritated when putting in the work to identify the selections.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Game 3 Pick: The Number 1 Seeded Miami Heat are showing why they finished with that spot in the Eastern Conference and they have taken a 2-0 lead in the First Round Series against the Atlanta Hawks. Last season it was the Hawks who reached the Eastern Conference Finals, but they are struggling to find the right answers to be competitive against the Heat and Atlanta will be desperate to believe that a change in fortune can come simply by the change of venue.
There is no doubting that the Hawks have been a better team at home this season than on the road and that may at least spark them on the Offensive side of the court. Poor three point shooting has really let them down in this First Round Series, but the role players will feel more comfortable at home and may offer Trae Young more support.
After a poor Game 1, Trae Young was much better in Game 2, although he will be the first to admit that he has to shoot the ball better from beyond the arc. The Miami Heat do have a tough Defensive scheme which is adept at closing the distance to the shooters around the arc, but you have to believe the Hawks will be that much better shooting at home.
Even that may not be enough to hold serve at home in Game 1 as the Hawks have struggled to replace Clint Capela and all he gives the team. The big man is expected to miss another game and it has allowed Miami to do what they like Offensively against an Atlanta Defense which has struggled for much of the season.
The Heat did cool off with their own three point shooting between Game 1 and Game 2, but thy were still very strong and it may be enough to get the better of the Hawks again, as long as Miami handle the pressure of playing on the road for the first time in the post-season.
Miami have plenty of experienced players so I would expect them to be able to weather the early storm and handle the occasion.
They are now 5-1 against the spread in their last six against the Atlanta Hawks, and they are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten as the road favourite.
No one will be able to doubt how good the Hawks have been at home and they are certainly a team that seems to be much more confident in their own Arena. However, I think the Miami Heat can just work through a difficult First Half and eventually find the buckets to pull away for a narrow, but convincing win to take a chokehold of this First Round Series.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Game 3 Pick: There was no doubt that the Chicago Bulls were going to be better in Game 2 from an Offensive point of view, but the Milwaukee Bucks will be feeling pretty deflated about giving up home court advantage in this First Round Series. The Bulls were allowed to do whatever they wanted with the ball in Game 2 and Chicago's big name players all stepped up after underperforming in the opening game.
DeMar DeRozan in particular was very strong in Game 2, but his was backed up by Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine and all of them shot efficiently from the field. The 48% success from the three point arc was the key and it has given the Milwaukee Bucks something to think about if they are going to be able to return home at 2-2 at the worst.
Khris Middleton looked to be putting together the basketball needed in the second half to turn Game 2 in favour of the Bucks, but Milwaukee are going to be without their second best player the rest of the Series. An injury has cost Middleton playing time and it does mean the Bucks need to find another scorer to back up Giannis Antetokounmpo.
This season the Bucks are just 7-9 straight up without Khris Middleton, but one of their wins did come in a home game against the Chicago Bulls. Adjustments are going to have to be made by the Bucks if they are going to turn this Series back around, but there is also a feeling that the Bulls will not be able to shoot with the same efficiency from three point range as they did in their last win.
Bobby Portis has looked like he has escaped serious injury and should be able to suit up, while I do think the Milwaukee Bucks are plenty experienced and can bounce back from what they feel is a sub-par effort all around.
They have been a team capable of bouncing back from a loss and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a straight up defeat. The Bucks are also 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games as the road favourite, and they are 11-1 against the spread in their last twelve games in Chicago.
Of course the momentum is with the Chicago Bulls having won on the road, but you do have to wonder if they can keep shooting at the clip they were from the distance. The pressure may be on the Bulls too with people expecting them to be able to challenge a Milwaukee Bucks team that is missing Khris Middleton, while the Bulls have also been a poor team to back against the spread when it comes to being set as the home underdog and when they are playing with a single day of rest between games.
You cannot ignore the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks are the Number 3 Seed and the defending Champions will not be panicking after the defeat in Game 2. Number 3 Seeds in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have been strong bouncing back from a loss, especially when they play on the road, and they are 8-3 both straight up and against the spread in that position.
I expect the Bucks to make the adjustments to just bring the Chicago Bulls back when it comes to their efficiency shooting the three ball and that may be enough for the road team to cover.
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 Pick: The loss of Devin Booker is devastating and many believe this has shifted the First Round Series in favour of the Number 8 Seeded New Orleans Pelicans over the Phoenix Suns.
I will be the first to admit that Booker needs to be playing for the Suns if they are going to win the NBA Championship that they covet, but I do think Phoenix have shown they can win games without their top player too.
It is not a massive record in their favour compared with their season mark, but the Suns are 8-6 without Devin Booker. I can understand some of the Game 2 struggles with the in-game adjustments very difficult to make, but the Suns are a very good team and I do think they are going to be fired up coming out for Game 3.
New Orleans have shown they have tremendous scoring potential, but there are still some questions Defensively and they may feel there is some pressure on them now so many believe they can win this First Round Series. They have played well to come through the Play In Tournament and even get into the First Round of the PlayOffs, but this is a different intensity now with expectation growing.
Defensively Phoenix are one of the strong teams out there and I think they will lean on that to take back home court advantage.
The Suns have been a very productive 14-6 against the spread as a small favourite this season and the two days rest between Game 2 and Game 3 is important for the team to just refocus without Devin Booker.
I have to respect the fact that New Orleans won on the road in Game 2, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the home underdog.
Number 1 Seeds in the First Round of the PlayOffs do tend to show why they are quality teams and have performed very well as the small favourite or the underdog as the Suns are here. I know the public money seems to be down with the Suns, which can be alarming, but all of the talking heads think Phoenix are vulnerable and I expect this team to show they are still with every chance of making it through to the Western Conference Semi Finals without Devin Booker in the line up.
Saturday 23rd April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 4 Pick: It may not have had the same drama as Kawhi Leonard's buzzer beater for the Toronto Raptors over the Philadelphia 76ers which secured Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, but Joel Embiid will feel there was some redemption as he pushed his team into a 3-0 lead in the First Round of the 2022 NBA PlayOffs.
He has been banged up in this Series, but Joel Embiid will feel he can get plenty of rest if he can help the 76ers complete the sweep on Saturday.
Once again the 76ers have to believe they are going to have to weather an early Toronto storm, but they showed their character by not leading at any point in Game 3 until the final shot from Joel Embiid as time was winding down in Overtime. At the same time you do have to wonder if the Raptors are going to be mentally prepared for this Game 4 having lost the last game in the manner they did.
Nick Nurse admitted it was a really hard loss to take, but he is set to have Scottie Barnes back in the rotation to give the Raptors a boost. A bit more composure will be needed from the role players, while the Raptors are perhaps struggling without a real star in the rotation, especially when this game hits crunch time.
Being swept out of the First Round will be the only real ambition for the Toronto Raptors who are going to take this Series one game at a time as they look to become the first team to ever win a PlayOff Series in the NBA when trailing 3-0.
The problem for Toronto is that they played a pretty complete Game 3 and still lost, but I do think playing in front of their own fans will just see one more big push from the players. Philadelphia have been a very good road team all season, but the 76ers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite.
Toronto have been a pretty good home underdog in recent weeks for the main part and they are also a team that is extremely well Coached and will expect the extra day of rest between games to be a factor in favour of the Raptors.
Number 4 Seeds in the NBA PlayOffs First Round have not been a great team at the betting window in recent seasons, but Philadelphia have covered in all three games in this Series. However, home teams in Game 4 of the First Round have a a15-5-1 record against the spread when set between a 3 game favourite or underdog and the Toronto Raptors could be worth backing with the points.
Scottie Barnes being back could be a boost and Joel Embiid is dealing with a couple of knocks and it may leave the door open for a gentleman's sweep in the First Round of this Series.
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Game 3 Pick: Returning home will obviously be a boost for the Brooklyn Nets, but they must be wondering how they trailing 2-0 in this First Round Series. The Boston Celtics held off a Fourth Quarter rally from the Nets in Game 1 and scored a buzzer-beating winner, while it was a reversal in Game 2 as the Boston Celtics fought back from a big deficit and overcame the Brooklyn Nets again.
Being 2-0 up is a big advantage and this is a key game for the Brooklyn Nets, but they will at least feel that the Series is far from over with the Celtics simply holding serve twice at home.
No team have been able to recover from 3-0 down in the NBA PlayOffs and so there is an immense amount of pressure on the Nets to find a way to win. Kevin Durant had a really poor second half in Game 2 and his turnovers were also key in turning the momentum against the Nets, but Kyrie Irving also underperformed and Brooklyn will have spent a couple of days working on their adjustments.
The Boston Celtics will feel there is room for improvement as far as they are concerned too, but they do have a nice balance Offensively and the Defensive work on Kevin Durant has been really impressive. They forced Durant into mistakes and offered him little space or time to build a rhythm, but being able to keep that going on the road is going to be the big challenge in front of the Celtics.
Mentally the edge is with the Boston Celtics who have won five in a row against the Brooklyn Nets, but it has been a close Series and you have to believe being at home is a boost for the Nets. That includes the role players as well as the two big name stars, while Ben Simmons is going to be back for Game 4 as the reports read.
It makes this game that much more important for Brooklyn to make sure they are still in a Series when Ben Simmons is back and I do think they will be able to at least hold serve at home in Game 3.
Backing the Brooklyn Nets as the home favourite is not appealing considering their really poor numbers in this spot,
On the other hand the Boston Celtics have been a productive road underdog to back, but I do think Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving can come together and use their experience of winning Championships to make the adjustments they need. Both were the main reason the Nets blew their big lead in Game 2, but I think being at home changes the momentum for Brooklyn who can stay focused for longer.
Showing more intensity all around Defensively will help too, and I expect that to be the case in their home Arena and I will look for the Brooklyn Nets to at least make this a Series with a win in Game 3.
Sunday 24th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Game 4 Pick: This has already been a back and forth First Round Series and once again the Milwaukee Bucks are in control having dominated Game 3 on the road. That has moved them 2-1 ahead in the Series, but the Bucks will be the first to admit that they will expect a lot more from the Chicago Bulls who made the right adjustments to win Game 2.
Much is going to depend on the top three names in the Chicago rotation.
DeMar DeRozan, Nicola Vucevic and Zach LaVine have struggled mightily in the two Chicago defeats, but they were very effective in the narrow win in Game 2. All three admit they need to be stronger if the Chicago Bulls are going to be better and they insist that this Series will be determined by their Offensive showing rather than the Milwaukee Defensive adjustments.
Losing Khris Middleton for the Series will hurt, but the Milwaukee Bucks showed they can compete without their second top scoring option in Game 3. The expectation is that this one will be much closer, but the Bucks have enjoyed the match up with the Chicago Bulls through the season and I think they will feel they may have broken the back of the Series with the dominant win on the road.
However, the Bucks have to be focused and they will expect a big reaction from the Chicago Bulls early in this one. The blowout loss is a dent for the Bulls to deal with and teams have struggled to bounce back from those in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent times, while road favourites have a very strong record in the First Round Series when they are asked to lay 4.5 points or more, much like Milwaukee are in this game.
Those teams are on a huge 28-12-1 run against the spread and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks have shown they enjoy playing the Chicago Bulls.
After weathering an early storm, I expect the Bucks to control this Game 4 and find a way to do a little better on the boards to cover in another winning effort before returning home.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Game 4 Pick: There has not been a single team in the history of the NBA that have managed to overturn a 3-0 deficit in a PlayOff Series and that is the challenge facing the Denver Nuggets. The current group may take some heart from knowing that the Nuggets once fought back to level a Series from this deficit and were the first team to recover from 3-1 down twice in the same PlayOff run a couple of years ago, although you cannot ignore the fact that happened inside the NBA bubble.
This time they are going to have to win two road games at the Golden State Warriors and hold serve twice, but even forcing a Game 5 may be a big challenge. The Nuggets have struggled without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray and I am not sure they have the consistent shooting outside of Nikola Jokic to give the Warriors more to think about.
Golden State made some big late plays to secure the win in Game 3, while the team have a depth that will be tough for the Nuggets to deal with. The Warriors have won four in a row against the Denver Nuggets including the regular season and I do think they are a team that can find the big shots to keep Denver at bay as they look to close out the Series.
Big road favourites have a decent record in the NBA PlayOffs First Round, while those teams looking to avoid a close out at 0-3 down have tended to struggle in Game 4. The Toronto Raptors won outright in that spot on Saturday, but the Denver Nuggets may not have the same depth to beat a Golden State team that is playing with a lot of confidence.
Ultimately a big problem for the Nuggets is that they have struggled Defensively and the Warriors should be able to exploit holes both inside the paint and from the three point arc. With Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole and Steph Curry getting stronger, I think the Golden State Warriors are going to have enough firepower to move through to the Conference Semi Finals, while making sure the team get some extra rest in before that Series begins.
They should be well rested and ready to compete in Game 4 having had a couple of days rest between games and I think that could mean that Steph Curry is able to have a few more minutes added to his restrictions.
Denver put in a huge effort in Game 3 before coming up short, while the Nuggets are 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games at home. They have failed to cover in their last five as the home underdog and I think the Defensive woes will see them come up short here.
Monday 25th April
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Game 4 Pick: When you are down 0-3 in a NBA PlayOff Series there are going to be plenty of questions about those players that are on the court, but the Brooklyn Nets have to be wondering what to think about one who has not suited up for them since being traded to the Nets months ago.
Ben Simmons sat out the season with the Philadelphia 76ers and eventually got the move he desired but has that lit a match under him? Not a chance!
The Nets hoped he would be available from the opening tip of this First Round Series, but that has been pushed back until Game 4. And just when the team were ready to welcome the third piece of their new Big Three, Ben Simmons woke up, complained about back soreness and has asked to be sat out again.
Personally I have long thought he is a joke, but Simmons may just have put his team-mates in a position to question his worth going forward. The Nets have invested a lot to bring him in to Brooklyn, but Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have considerable sway with the executives and I would not be surprised if Simmons never plays for this team.
The off court issues cannot be a distraction for a team looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics- the Nets came into this season as one of the favourites to win the NBA Championship so a First Round exit will be a real underachievement anyway, but a sweep would be hard to deal with.
At the moment the Boston Celtics have all of the momentum and I think the Game 3 win on the road is the one that broke the back of the Series. However, I do think earning the sweep can be difficult and the Boston Celtics may struggle to put away the Brooklyn Nets with small home favourites/underdogs in Game 4 of the First Round of the PlayOffs having a very strong run in the post-season at the betting window.
Kevin Durant has really struggled in this Series and has suggested he has been overthinking on the court, but being 0-3 down may just free him up. All of the games in the Series have been competitive, although it should be noted that teams that are 0-3 down have struggled to avoid the sweep in recent years.
In saying that, both the Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets have extended their Series with home wins as the underdog in the First Round, and I do think the Brooklyn Nets can at least force one more game in Boston.
You have to really like everything about the way the Boston Celtics have played and they would love to earn the sweep and make up for the 4-1 First Round PlayOffs loss to the Brooklyn Nets last season. I think they have played well and have the star players finding many more holes to exploit than the Nets have been able to do, but there may be a slight relaxation after the Game 3 win.
Completing a sweep in the First Round is never easy, but this is one that is going to likely go down to the wire.
A lot of the betting trends are favouring the Boston Celtics, but I do think being home should inspire at least one more big effort from the Brooklyn Nets. That may be enough to secure a Game 5 at the TD Garden later this week and I will back the Nets to cover.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 5 Pick: I have been on top of this First Round PlayOff Series with a perfect 4-0 record through the first four games as the Philadelphia 76ers look to close out a spot in the Conference Semi Finals. They are a big favourite to do that, although there was some negative news this past week after it was announced that Joel Embiid is going to have to play the remainder of the post-season with an injury.
The good news is that it won't rule Embiid out of the PlayOffs with surgery scheduled for the off-season, but the 76ers will also know they need their best player at his best the longer they are involved in the PlayOffs.
Finishing off this First Round Series as soon as possible will at least mean getting in a few more days of rest for the team that dropped Game 4 on the road and hoping to avoid being the first team in NBA history to drop a Series having led 3-0. The Raptors Head Coach Nick Nurse has stated that 'somebody has to do it', but his team have been outplayed in their two visits to the 76ers and I do think being at home allows the role players to perform with much more consistency.
It could be the key for the 76ers who have blown out the Raptors in both Game 1 and Game 2 in this Series. The two games in Toronto were closer, but Fred VanVleet may be banged up for the visitors too and I am not sure the Raptors have enough consistency to stay with the 76ers, who have been able to do whatever they want for much of this Series.
Game 4 was an outlier from what we have seen from the 76ers and I do think a return home will be the key to the outcome of this one. I would expect better efficiency from the field and I also think playing on the road makes it tougher for the Raptors to find the consistency they need to stay with their hosts as happened in the opening couple of games in the Series.
Both of those ended with the 76ers winning by double digits and I think that is the most likely outcome of this one too.
The 76ers only hit 42% of their field goals in Game 4, but their marks were 51% and 52% in Game 1 and Game 2 and being at home means there is much more likelihood that the 76ers get back to finding what they want. The Toronto Raptors are well Coached and will have made adjustments, but I do think they will just be dragged into a shoot-out with the 76ers and that is where the home team may have the edge.
Philadelphia have played well in recent games as the home favourite and Game 5 teams playing at home are 16-10 against the spread since 2017. I expect the role players to step up alongside Joel Embiid and James Harden and that should see the 76ers make enough positive plays to keep the Toronto Raptors at arm's distance and find a cover.
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Game 5 Pick: This First Round NBA PlayOff Series is tied at 2-2, but there has been a significant change in the feeling around the Dallas Mavericks with the return of their superstar Luka Doncic. He made it back for Game 4 and had a really good game, but the Dallas Mavericks were beaten by a single point and the Utah Jazz will feel much better about themselves with the Series tied again.
The mentality of the players may feel a little different ahead of Game 5- the Dallas Mavericks had been set as the underdog in each of the first four games in the PlayOff Series, but this time it is the Utah Jazz who will be given the points.
It does change the mindset going into a game and I do think it has to be factored in, but the Dallas Mavericks have looked the stronger team overall in the Series. They have shot the ball well even when Luka Doncic has been setting on the sidelines and the Dallas Mavericks have a depth to their shooting which has been a tough test for the Utah Defensive scheme, which has had a muddled time on the court.
Utah are also under pressure with the suggestion that the executives will choose to break this team apart if the Jazz are not able to reach the Western Conference Finals at the very least. It puts pressure on the likes of Donovan Mitchell, but the shooting has not been as consistent as the Jazz would have liked in this First Round Series.
With that in mind, much of this Series depends on how well the Dallas Mavericks shoot the ball- when they have been at their best, Dallas have had too much for the Utah Jazz, but their three point shooting was a little looser in Game 4 compared with Game 3 and ultimately that made the difference on the day.
Dallas have been playing really well when they have been set as the home favourite, going 5-1 against the spread in the last six in that spot, while the Mavericks are 36-16 against the spread in their last fifty-two when playing off a straight up loss.
The Jazz are 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog, and they are just 6-19-1 against the spread in their last twenty-six on the road.
With Luka Doncic back, Dallas will feel confident at home and I expect their role players to enjoy playing in this environment in front of the fans.
Home teams are playing really well in Game 5 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent years and the Mavericks are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home against the Utah Jazz. There will be some back and forth in Game 5, which could be a pivotal one in this First Round Series, but I think the Dallas Mavericks will come out on top and cover this mark as the favourite.
MY PICKS: 16/04 Utah Jazz - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
16/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
17/04 Atlanta Hawks + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Boston Celtics - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Utah Jazz - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Miami Heat - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Phoenix Suns - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Brooklyn Nets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
20/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
20/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 10 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
21/04 Utah Jazz - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Golden State Warriors - 2 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
22/04 Miami Heat - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
22/04 Phoenix Suns - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/04 Toronto Raptors + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 Brooklyn Nets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/05 Brooklyn Nets - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/05 Philadelphia 76ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/05 Dallas Mavericks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 13-14, - 4.10 Units (29 Units Staked, - 7.24% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
