Premier League Darts Night 16 Picks 2026 (Thursday 21st May)

We have made it through to the final regular season Night of the Premier League Darts, but not many would have anticipated that almost everything would have been decided ahead of time.

Both Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price reached the Final on Night 15 and that has pushed them into the Play Offs along with Jonny Clayton and Luke Littler.

The only situation of real importance on Night 16 is determining whether Humphries or Price finish 3rd in the standings and thus take on Clayton in the Semi Final, while the player finishing 4th will face Luke Littler at the O2 Arena.

It is not what the organisers would have wanted and it may finally mean a change in the format, which is something that the fans have been clamouring for over the last couple of years.

At the moment there is no changes and so the last regular season Night will be played as usual and with the Semi Final lineup to complete.

Luke Littler to win & over 5.5 total 180s v Josh Rock: There is nothing to lose for either player in this Quarter Final, but Josh Rock will be looking to round back into some kind of consistent form.

He won the last European Tour title, which is a big achievement, but his Players Championship runs have not been that impressive since then.

Josh Rock will be looking to have one more big impact in the Premier League and there has been little wrong with his maximum hitting, but Luke Littler is well rested and has just received his MBE award.

The World Number 1 has been skipping recent European Tour events and has not been playing in the Players Championship floor events, but he had won three Premier League Nights in a row before losing to Luke Humphries in the Semi Final last week. He may yet be hoping to avoid facing Humphries in the Play Offs next week, at least until the Championship Match, but Littler should also be focused enough to want another strong showing on the stage ahead of the visit to the O2 Arena where he will be looking to reclaim the title lost.

That focus should see Luke Littler have a bit too much for Josh Rock for the sixth time in a row in 2026.

Luke Humphries to win & both players over 1.5 180s v Michael van Gerwen: It took fifteen weeks, but Luke Humphries was finally able to pick up a Premier League Nightly win and remove all drama from Night 16.

The five points on the board have secured the defending Champion a spot in the Play Offs, but he may need to win another Nightly title if he wants to avoid facing Luke Littler in the Semi Final next week.

Luke Humphries picked up another Players Championship title earlier in the week and he will be confident in his own form even if he is to face Littler in his first match back at the O2 Arena, but avoiding the latest clash with the World Number 1 until the Championship Match is preferable.

Momentum is with Humphries who has won a couple of big titles over the last eight days and that will help against Michael van Gerwen who will be very disappointed that he has missed the Play Offs again.

Missing one of the fifteen Premier League Nights with an illness has proved costly for the Dutchman, but his overall form has been impressive and Michael van Gerwen can be confident it will lead to more titles over the remainder of the year.

Unlike Humphries, Michael van Gerwen did not play in the Players Championship events this week- that may be an issue when it comes to trying to beat the in-form World Number 2, but van Gerwen can certainly contribute in what should be a quality match and both players can hit at least two maximums in a Quarter Final that is eventually won by Luke Humphries.

Jonny Clayton-Stephen Bunting over 5.5 180s: Both of these players enjoyed one strong run at the two Players Championship events played earlier this week and that will give them some confidence.

That will be needed as both Jonny Clayton and Stephen Bunting look for much stronger Premier League efforts than in Night 15 when they were beaten 6-0 in Quarter Final matches.

This is a 'dead rubber' in terms of the standings, but both players should be motivated to want to have one more big night on this stage- Jonny Clayton is heading to Finals Night next week and he will be keen to keep his strong form going.

However, Stephen Bunting has shown he can pile in with the maximums when he does find time to build up his rhythm, while Jonny Clayton is very confident around the treble 20 as well.

Only the top two Ranked players in the world have more maximums than Jonny Clayton in the Premier League and this is a Quarter Final that can feature at least six as long as we don't have another blowout one way or the other.

Gerwyn Price to win & most 180s v Gian van Veen: After admitting he was not feeling his best and some uncertainty around his decision to skip the World Cup of Darts, Gerwyn Price produced a couple of key wins last week to earn his spot in the Premier League Finals.

He should be well rested having skipped the latest Players Championship events and Gerwyn Price may have too much for Gian van Veen in this Quarter Final.

The young Dutchman will have learned plenty during his Premier League run, but the last couple of months have been difficult as Gian van Veen has lost some confidence and his own health has not been at 100%.

Gian van Veen was unfortunate in his defeat to Price last week, but that has ended hopes of finishing in the top four in the Premier League standings, while a couple of relatively early defeats in the last Players Championship tournaments will not have helped the confidence.

Motivation has to be questionable for Gerwyn Price who may be more focused on the Premier League Finals next week, but there is a chance to avoid playing Luke Littler in the Semi Final. That may be important enough for the Welshman to dig in on Night 16 and Gerwyn Price has shown his power scoring throughout this Premier League run.

MY PICKS: Luke Littler to Win & Over 5.5 Total 180s @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Luke Humphries to Win & Both Players Over 1.5 180s @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jonny Clayton-Stephen Bunting Over 5.5 180s @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Gerwyn Price to Win & Most 180s @ 2.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 64-96, - 19.96 Units (157 Units Staked, - 12.71% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)

We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers is played on Sunday night.

That does mean that the Western Conference Finals will begin first rather than the Eastern Conference Finals and Game 1-4 are played on alternate days.

All NBA fans have to be excited about the Western Conference Finals- the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs could build up a real rivalry over the next several years with two young rosters filled with some incredible talent.

The winner of the Western Conference Finals will be expected to be set as favourites in the NBA Finals, but the New York Knicks have produced some of the best basketball of this year's Playoffs and will certainly have something to say about that.

Twenty-seven years have passed since the Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and fifty-three since New York last won a NBA Championship, but they have won seven Playoff games in a row and mostly in supremely confident fashion.

Nothing can be taken for granted against whoever they face in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks are going to be favourites and it is up to this team to manage the huge expectations that have been placed on their shoulders.

NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4

Monday 18th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: This is the Western Conference Finals that fans would have wanted to see and the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be favourites to move through to another NBA Finals.

They have breezed through the Playoffs without dropping a game, but this is going to be a significantly tougher Series.

However, that ability to make comfortable progress has meant the Oklahoma City Thunder are well rested and they are also expecting to have Jalen Williams available in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The depth of the Thunder has been a huge advantage over the rivals faced in the Playoffs so far, while Oklahoma City have been allowed to play with real physicality and that has seen them dominate the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.

Both of those teams were shorthanded, but that is not going to be the case in the Western Conference Finals and the San Antonio Spurs have to believe their own depth helps them match up well with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Spurs may not have the MVP of the League on the roster, but they will believe Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the court all the same. Using the depth to keep themselves competitive when Wemby has to be given a rest is the key for the Spurs, and it remains an important factor that San Antonio won four of the five regular season meetings between the teams.

There has been nothing wrong with the Oklahoma City Defensive unit, but recent games have been tougher for them even if they should be stronger at home. They are going to need to play well on this side of the court against a San Antonio team that have been very strong Defensively and used that to wear down the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Second Round Series.

Some will like the fact that the Spurs have not lost a lot of rhythm by playing in the Second Round until Friday, but the Oklahoma City Thunder showed that rest will not bother them. You would expect the Thunder to find their rhythm at home pretty quickly, but the defending Champions will also want to make an early statement against a team that gave them so much trouble in the regular season.

This is the shortest spread that the Thunder will have faced in the post-season at home in 2026, but that is the kind of respect that the San Antonio Spurs.

In saying that, the Spurs may still feel they are being overlooked by having this many points given to them and the road team can be backed in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, which has all of the signs of being one that could potentially go all the way.

Tuesday 19th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Twenty-seven years have passed since the New York Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and multiple generations have failed to see the team win the NBA Championship.

After what had been something of an inconsistent regular season and falling 2-1 behind in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the Knicks have found some of their best basketball. The momentum has grown as they have not only won seven straight Playoff games, but the Knicks completely overwhelmed the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers and fans will believe they won't have many better opportunities to reach the NBA Finals.

Last year the season ended in the Eastern Conference Finals after a Game 6 loss to the Indiana Pacers, but injuries had held the team back and the Knicks look to be heading into the 2026 Conference Finals in much better shape.

OG Anunoby missed some time in the Second Round sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers, but he has been back in full practice with the team giving him a big chance of recovering with the rest days they have had between Series. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing about as well as he ever has in the NBA, while Jalen Brunson is expected to enjoy this match up.

The Knicks have been underrated Defensively, while the three point shooting has been at historically strong levels in the previous two Rounds as the team have rallied together and found a really good rhythm.

One of the only concerns for the fans is that the long layoff between the end of the Second Round Series and the start of the Eastern Conference Finals could work against New York.

However, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come into the Conference Finals having had to dig in to beat the Detroit Pistons in Game 7 and that is the second Series in the post-season that has gone all the way. Donovan Mitchell stepped up to lead the Cavaliers into the Eastern Conference Finals, which is also the first time Mitchell will have been that far in the Playoffs, but the key starters who have all been so important for Cleveland have already had a lot of minutes in the post-season.

This is a Series that is also going to feel very different for the Cavaliers- this time they are facing an opponent that will believe they can match the Offensive firepower on the other side of the court. After seeing the barrage of three pointers that the Knicks have been connecting on, the pressure will be on Cleveland to find the energy to get out to those shooters, while a returning Anunoby gives the Knicks the kind of Defensive length and intensity to put plenty of pressure on the Cavaliers.

Big favourites and Game 1 home teams have struggled in recent Conference Finals Series, but in recent situations where the Number 3 Seed has been favoured by at least 3.5 points, those teams have tended to cover.

A number of adjustments are going to have to be made by the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals compared with what has come before, but this feels a tough spot for them with a day of rest between Game 7 of the Second Round Series and this opening contest.

It is a big spread, but the New York Knicks have a lot of momentum that could carry into the Eastern Conference Finals and they may find some three point shooting rhythm to cover at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

Wednesday 20th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: These two Western Conference rivals are expecting to battle one another for the next several years at the very top of the NBA and Game 1 suggests the Western Conference Finals could be an epic affair.

Double Overtime was needed before the San Antonio Spurs eventually prevailed thanks to a monster game from Victor Wembanyama.

For all intents and purposes, the Spurs fans will know the team have already achieved all they would have wanted from the first two games of the Series, but the players will feel there is an opportunity to really take control of this Conference Finals. Another win on the road would put the Spurs in a very strong position before returning home and they have shown they have what it takes to beat the defending Champions time and time again throughout this season.

Game 1 was won without De'Aaron Fox, who has to be considered Questionable for Game 2, but Wemby put the team on his back and had a big moment to level things up in the first Overtime played. His 41 Points alone would impress, but adding 24 Rebounds along with 3 Blocks and 3 Assists underlines the impact Victor Wembanyama had on the game as he became the youngest player to ever have at least 40 Points and 20 Rebounds in a Playoff game.

Asking for more of the same may be too much, but the San Antonio Spurs will feel Victor Wembanyama is the most impactful player on the court even if he did not win the MVP.

The player who did, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, produced an inefficient 24 Points in Game 1 as the Spurs crowded him, but that did mean the Oklahoma City Thunder had multiple open looks that were missed. Some will believe that is down to the fact they have won all eight Playoff Games and so had a lot of rest between the end of the Second Round Series and Game 1 of the Conference Finals, but you have to think the Thunder are confident that the shooters will be better when those looks come up again.

Oklahoma City's regular season record against the Spurs will put them under some pressure, but they are the defending Champions and a response is expected.

Once again they are being asked to cover a big spread, which has not been a good position for favourites in the Conference Finals, but teams playing after a loss are 34-19-1 against the spread at this stage of the post-season.

Big favourites have struggled in the Conference Finals, but Number 1 Seeds have a 21-14 record against the spread when favoured by at least 6.5 points and this Thunder team have the experience and the quality to find a way to bounce back.

The Spurs covered as a big underdog, but that has not always been a good spot for the Number 2 Seed in the Conference Finals and those teams being given at least 5 points are now 7-16 against the spread.

Opposing the Spurs is not easy considering how they have matched up with the Thunder all season, but Oklahoma City may be facing a team that could soon turn their attention to 'holding serve' at home having already stolen home court advantage away. If that is going to happen, Game 2 looks the spot and the Thunder should be a little more efficient with the looks they missed out on last time out, which should see them edge past this spread line set.

Thursday 21st May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: Most of the attention is going to be focusing on the New York Knicks after putting together a historic comeback that will have fans believing destiny is with them as they bid to return to the NBA Finals for the first time in twenty-seven years.

They were 22 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining and no one would have given the Knicks a shot at recovering.

Instead the team rallied to force Overtime and overwhelmed the Cleveland Cavaliers to produce the biggest comeback in the history of the New York Knicks as far as the post-season goes, while also being the second biggest deficit clawed back in the Fourth Quarter of any Playoff game in the last thirty years.

The number crunchers gave the Knicks a 0.1% chance of winning with a little over half of the Fourth Quarter remaining, but somehow it is New York who have a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Jalen Brunson put the team on his back and could not miss, but there were also key contributions from three point shooters who had been ice cold for the first three Quarters. Some of that is clearly down to the big gap between games, but the Knicks found their rhythm just in time and all of the momentum is with a team that have won eight straight Playoff games.

Credit has to be given to New York for the fight shown, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are rightly going to be facing criticism.

James Harden was exposed time and time again on the Defensive side of the court as the Knicks turned up the heat, which also impacted his level on the Offensive side as he was worn down. Donovan Mitchell had been playing really well, but drifted out of the game as the Cavaliers looked for someone to take control, although he has played down an injury concerns.

And Head Coach Kenny Atkinson has had to face the critics having failed to use his Timeouts in a bid to at least curtail the Knicks run in the Fourth Quarter when almost everyone else would have used them, even just to slow the clear momentum shift.

Adjustments will have to be made by the Cavaliers, but they have responded to adversity throughout these Playoffs and that makes them dangerous- yes, they did lose two in a row at the Detroit Pistons to open the Second Round Series, but the Cavaliers won road games in Game 5 and Game 7 to show they can come through difficult, hostile environments.

However, there has to be a concern about the way things went at the end of Game 1 and the relative lack of recovery time before the teams face off again in Game 2 at The Garden.

Open shooters will have to be more clinical with those opportunities, while Mitchell cannot allow himself to become a non-factor as he did in the second half of the Fourth Quarter and in Overtime in Game 1.

The challenge for the Cavaliers is knowing that this New York Knicks team had been completely out of sync for so long in Game 1 that they should have won on the road, while now they are dealing with a team that did find rhythm with their shots. The three point shooting has been eye-catching in this Playoff run, but the Knicks have so much room for improvement from the Tuesday efforts that they feel very, very dangerous if the Cavaliers do not come out with a point to prove.

Big favourites have found it tough in the Conference Finals, while teams playing after a loss have bounced back effectively, which are both trends favouring the road team.

Game 2s have tended to be very good for home teams after a win with those putting together an 8-5 run against the spread and the New York Knicks have to believe the manner of the opening win is going to have a hangover effect on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It is imperative the Knicks come out fast and use the emotion of the crowd to get on top of the Cavaliers as early as they can and, if they can do that, they should have a better shooting day with some of the looks they saw in Game 1 to believe they can win and take a 2-0 lead in the Series with a cover of the spread line set.

Friday 22nd May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: They did what they needed to during a two game road business trip to Oklahoma City, but it has come at a cost for the San Antonio Spurs.

De'Aaron Fox was already missing and another primary ball-handler in Dylan Harper suffered an injury in the Third Quarter of Game 2, which ultimately tipped things in favour of the defending Champions. Turnovers killed the San Antonio Spurs with Stephon Castle being most guilty and they are going to be desperate to have at least one of Fox or Harper available for Game 3 as the Western Conference Finals shifts to San Antonio for the next two in the Series.

Every team needs players who can bring the ball up the court and create plays and San Antonio are no different- after the Double Overtime win in Game 1 behind a monster game from Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs best player was not as influential a factor in Game 2 and some of that is down to the inability of those outside of De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper being able to set the tempo with turning the ball over.

Turnovers have long been situations from which the Oklahoma City Thunder shine and most would have expected a big response from this group after losing Game 1.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander had a really efficient day from the field, even if his flopping on almost every shot taken is beginning to be noted more and more, while the intensity of the team meant they were not outgunned on the boards for a second time in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder were out-Rebounded in Game 2, but by a 4 board margin rather than the 21 more recoveries earned by the Spurs in Game 1.

It wasn't a perfect night for the Thunder, who may have lost Jalen Williams to another injury, while there have been plenty flagging up some of the physical, rough-housing the officials either missed or ignored against Victor Wembanyama.

On San Antonio's home court, those calls may end up trending in favour of the Spurs and it does make Game 3 that much more interesting for viewers.

In recent years, the Conference Finals have seen the zig-zag theory working really well with teams coming off losses producing strong numbers in the next game. The San Antonio Spurs will be hoping another day of recovery will help them here and you would expect De'Aaron Fox to suit up having been a game-time decision on Wednesday.

That will help, as will a few more positive calls from the officials, but this Oklahoma City Thunder deep have showcased the kind of depth they have.

Number 2 Seeds have been solid backs when favoured in Conference Finals games, while it should also be noted that Number 1 Seeds have not performed well as small favourites or underdogs, which is what the Oklahoma City Thunder have been set as in this important Game 3 battle.

Instead of picking a side, it may pay for this one to end up surpassing a total that has moved up a couple of points compared with Game 2.

That opening Double Overtime Game 1 has sapped some early energy and we saw signs of that in Game 2, while the officials may be more on top of some of the physicality we have seen where obvious fouls were not being called. Those have been highlighted nationally and it could be a Game 3 where whistles are more frequent, which in turn leads to drawn out Quarters as teams head to the Foul Line.

Three point shooting was more efficient in Game 2 as the Defensive players perhaps struggled to get out to those spot up shooters with tired legs recovering from the opening outing in the Western Conference Finals.

If that continues, this line may still be a touch low and it should be stated that Conference Finals games where the total has been set between 209 and 216 points have now finished with an 'over' in twenty-five of the last thirty-six occasions that has happened, including in Game 2 of this Series.

Turnovers lead to quick points too and the Spurs could be guilty of that again, but the home team are also showing they can break down this Oklahoma City Defensive scheme and this total may end up being surpassed in a Game 3 that really feels like it is finely balanced.

MY PICKS: 18/05 San Antonio Spurs + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

21/05 New York Knicks - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals: 3-0, + 2.74 Units (3 Units Staked, + 91.33% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (May 21st)

I was hoping a few things would have been cleared up in my personal life that would have given me the time to write out fuller Tennis Pick threads over the last week.

However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.

I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.

With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.


MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2019 (May 14-21)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- Conference Finals Picks Games 1-4 (May 14-21)

It has taken a month to get here, but we are down to the final four teams in the 2018/19 NBA season and there are a couple of surprises involved.

They might have finished with the Number 1 Seed, but back in August I don't think the Milwaukee Bucks would have had too many backers outside of their own fanbase to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks deserve to be here because of how they have played all season, but they have to be considered a surprise name compared with the Toronto Raptors who would have been pegged with the Boston Celtics as the teams most likely going to be in a position to take advantage of LeBron James leaving the Conference.

The Golden State Warriors being involved in a fifth straight Western Conference Finals will have been short odds back in August, but the Portland Trail Blazers have upset the odds to join them. Portland have to be respected for winning two Series where their opponents were picked to beat them, but this is another big step up for them.

In this thread I am going to tally up the results and selections from the first four games of the Conference Finals. I will put together a new thread to cover Games 5-7 from next week if necessary.

So far the PlayOffs have been mainly positive for the NBA Picks, but I had a miserable middle part of the Second Round which meant ending with a slight negative. Overall the numbers are still very much on the up going into the Conference Finals.

Tuesday 14th May

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: The big news coming out of this Conference Finals is that Kevin Durant is expected to miss at least the first two games in the Series. Both of those are being played at home for the Golden State Warriors who closed their Second Round Series with the Houston Rockets without Durant, but you can't disguise the absence of the best player in the world and what it could potentially mean to the direction this Series takes.

The Portland Trail Blazers rallied from a huge first half deficit to beat the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their own Second Round Series and they will be playing with some real belief right now. No one would have picked the Trail Blazers to reach the Western Conference Finals at the beginning of this season after they had been swept out of the First Round of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans twelve months ago, but the Trail Blazers have held themselves together for long enough to make their way through to the Conference Finals.

They have had a couple of days to come down from the euphoria of winning a Game 7 on the road, but the Portland Trail Blazers will need to raise their game even more if they are going to upset the Warriors. Even without Durant Golden State showed what they are made of by beating the Houston Rockets in Game 6 on the road and the return to form of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry is pivotal to their chances of having success.

The 'Splash Brothers' can be lights out from the three point range and that is going to be an issue for Portland who will be trying to steal games by outperforming Golden State from that distance. In Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum the Trail Blazers have two players who can get very hot from any distance too, but Lillard has not been at his best in the PlayOffs so far and that has to be a real concern for Portland because they will need both of their top players at their best.

CJ McCollum was the star of Game 7 for Portland, but this is going to be another pressurised environment to play. They did split four games with Golden State in the regular season, but Portland don't really look to be match up that well with the Warriors and especially not with Jusuf Nurkic in the line up.

Enes Kanter has done well in his stead, but the Warriors know they can look to restrict Portland to taking awkward jumpers and I think the superior shooting of the defending Champions can see them through the Series.

In Game 1 I do think the potentially tough seven game Series in the last Round can play against Portland, while Golden State can continue to try and rally together to make up for Durant's absence. The last couple of teams who have won their Conference Second Round Series in Game 7 have been beaten by double digits in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and Golden State are capable of scoring points in bunches to pull away from Portland, even if they remain a tough home team to back against the spread.

Portland are 9-22 against the spread in their last thirty-one games at the Oracle Arena though and they are also just 1-5 against the spread when given 6 or more points as the underdog this season. Zagging after a Portland win has been a good move too as they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six following a win and I do think the emotions of winning their Second Round Series could play into this Game 1.

Unsurprisingly Golden State have some terrible home trends to overcome, but they are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen Conference Final games. The Warriors could take advantage if Portland do struggle to make their three pointers in this one and being able to oppose the public with the defending Champions is not a bad thing.

The spread has just come down half a point from opening which may have been down to Kevin Durant's confirmed absence, but I like the Warriors in this one.


Wednesday 15th May
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: The entire Arena had to hold their collective breath as Kawhi Leonard's shot bounced around the rim for what seemed an eternity. Eventually it fell in Game 7 of the Toronto Raptors Second Round Series win over the Philadelphia 76ers and that has taken the Raptors through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

That game was played on Sunday so the Raptors have had a little more time than the Portland Trail Blazers were afforded when they began their own Conference Finals Series on Tuesday. They are also facing a Milwaukee Bucks team who have earned their spot in the final four much faster than the other three teams competing for a place in the NBA Finals and the Raptors may feel they can get the better of a team who might have lost some rhythm from the long rest between games.

The Bucks crushed the Boston Celtics in the Second Round having dropped Game 1 at home when they had been playing on five days rest. This time they are getting six days rest between games and playing a team with their rhythm and adrenaline pumping from a Game 7 win and who also have had enough time to see fatigue drip away.

However, the Milwaukee Bucks have looked very, very impressive in the NBA PlayOffs as they have won eight of nine games and they have covered the number in each of their wins. They also had the better of the Toronto Raptors in the regular season with three wins from the four meetings between these teams and two of those wins came in blow out fashion.

Toronto do have a very good team, but they are going to find it much tougher against Milwaukee than they did against Philadelphia. This time they face a team with a similar depth and also with a star player in Giannis Antetokounmpo who can match the production of Leonard.

Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka could cause one or two problems for the 'Greek Freak' and Gasol's trade was with a potential PlayOff Series against the Bucks in mind. He has been important for Toronto, but I think Milwaukee can match the depth that the Raptors bring and arguably have the better players around their star performer which can make a difference in this Series.

There are a lot of trends that would favour the Bucks, but it can't be ignored that they were only favoured once in the regular season against the Raptors and lost that game at home outright. They are also 5-14-1 against the spread in their last twenty games when playing on three or more days rest and we saw the Bucks lay an egg in Game 1 of the Second Round Series with the Boston Celtics.

The road team is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight between the Raptors and the Bucks and the underdog has covered in seven straight. Having a bit more time than Portland to recover from a Game 7 win in the Second Round has to help the Raptors in this one too and I can't help but think they are the right play in Game 1 of this Series.

Opposing the Milwaukee Bucks is not something I want to do too often during this Series, but Game 1 looks a strong spot to do that. The Bucks winning all eight games while covering in the PlayOffs can't be set aside easily, but I think the Raptors can keep this one competitive at the least even if I am not convinced they have enough to actually win.


Thursday 16th May
There are times when you have to accept you made the right choices when putting your selections together and simply didn't have enough fortune to earn the winner.

That is the case on Wednesday as the Toronto Raptors led for the large part of Game 1, let alone been in a position to cover, but failed to score in the last four minutes and saw the Milwaukee Bucks produce a 10-0 run which helped them win the game by 8 points.

I really don't think that game could have been capped better and anyone backing the Bucks got a break. However that also means the Bucks are 9-1 in the NBA PlayOffs and they have covered the spread in all of their wins, while the Toronto Raptors have to pick themselves up very quickly with Game 2 being scheduled for Saturday.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The Golden State Warriors finally blew Game 1 open for good in the fourth quarter and that has seen them hold serve and move into a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson stepped up as they knew they were going to have to without Kevin Durant and the Warriors are going to be looking for more of the same with Durant at least out for Game 2.

It is going back to the basics which made the Warriors the dominant team that Durant wanted to join and that means creating turnovers with their energy Defensively and shooting lights out from the three point arc. Both were in evidence in Game 1, but it needed a real run at the beginning of the fourth quarter to really take control of things and turn the screw on a Portland team that may also have been dealing with fatigue.

That could be a reason for the lacklustre performance from the Trail Blazers who struggled from the field and were not able to look after the ball anything like they need to if they are going to win this Conference Finals. Even then the team are looking at the positives of sticking with the Warriors until the fourth quarter despite not playing their best game and now it is up to Portland to make the adjustments they need to be more competitive.

CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard both have plenty of room for improvement after a slow Game 1 and they are going to be key for the Trail Blazers. While they are not as strong as the back court that the Warriors have, there is enough talent for Lillard and McCollum to at least match the 'Splash Brothers' in a one off game and that is key for Portland who also have to look after the ball much better than they did in Game 1.

Portland have won at the Oracle Arena in the regular season so they should not be overawed by the situation, but it is tough off a seven game Series to be asked to play back to back games on the road. In fact it is the third road game in a row for the Portland Trail Blazers, but the players won't want to return home in a 0-2 hole and I do think it is going to be a real motivated Trail Blazer team who should be a lot better than a couple of nights ago.

I do think the Trail Blazers will shoot much better than they did in Game 1- the reality is I can't imagine they can play as poorly again all around- and the dept of Portland could give them a chance to perhaps steal Home Court. They are appealing with the start on the spread in this one, especially when you think of the Golden State record against the spread at home.

Golden State are 19-41-2 against the spread in their last sixty-two games following a double digit win which is a remarkable number. They also face a Portland team who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a loss and so I can see the road team covering, although I think they are going to have to be much better Offensively to do that.

If they are then this is a game that could surpass the total points line after that number dropped a couple of points from Game 1 to Game 2. I still anticipate the Golden State Warriors to earn their points even if they should be more challenged from the three point line and the 'over' has a strong trend in recent games between these teams and also in recent Portland games when coming in off a loss.

My expectation is an improved Portland who have refocused will come out in Game 2 and I do think the line is right on the money with a case that can be made for both sides. My lean is that the Portland Trail Blazers will cover in Game 2, but I think that will have to happen in a game where both teams hit the triple digit mark by a comfortable margin and so I am going to back this game to surpass the total line being set.


Friday 17th May
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: I was on the Toronto Raptors two nights ago and felt pretty disappointed with the end of Game 1 as they blew a lead and didn't cover the spread thanks to failing to score in the last three minutes. The fans must have felt even worse as the Raptors missed a huge opportunity to steal Home Court in the Eastern Conference Finals and I am struggling to know how Toronto can pick themselves up from such a loss after needing seven games to get through their Second Round Series.

The fact of the matter is they are also facing a much better team than the Philadelphia 76ers and now the Milwaukee Bucks should have shaken off the cobwebs that was clearly evident in their play in Game 1.

They were playing that one off a big rest between games, but this time the Milwaukee Bucks are off a day of rest and I expect them to be a lot more ready to go from the off. Once again they showed they can wear down an opponent and I do worry for the Raptors that their role players are not stepping up to the plate as they would like.

Kyle Lowry had a huge Game 1, but it is hard to expect the Bucks to allow him to dominate from the three point line as he did. I would also expect the Milwaukee shooters to be a lot more ready to go than they were in Game 1 and by the fourth quarter of that one you could see the rhythm was coming back so I am expecting them to pick up from where they left off.

It makes it tough to see how the Raptors can be any better barring someone like Pascal Siakem coming out of his slump. The length of the Bucks makes it very difficult to challenge them and they have some wonderfully strong trends which back them in this one.

The Raptors dropped to 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and Milwaukee remain perfect in the post-season against the spread whenever they have won a game. I would have loved to be backing Milwaukee off a straight up loss like I did in the Second Round against the Boston Celtics, but I think the players will be looking to show a much more complete game anyway in Game 2 and I will back them to win and cover.


Saturday 18th May
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers are in a similar position as the one the Toronto Raptors were facing in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After blowing a chance to steal Home Court in the last game, the Trail Blazers have to pick themselves up immediately and try and respond in the right way.

That was not the case for the Toronto Raptors who were blown out by the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 on Friday, but Portland are in an even more desperate position as they return home 0-2 down. Another defeat will all but end this Series and it is hard to see how Portland can play much better than they did in Game 2.

Even the Golden State Warriors admitted that they were fortunate to come away with the win in Game 2, but win they did as they continue to deal without Kevin Durant. The All Star has been ruled out for the next two games as he has not travelled to Portland, but this could be important time off for Durant who is still hoping to be passed fit if the Warriors reach the NBA Finals which is set to begin later this month.

The Warriors are not playing badly without Durant having won their last three full games in his absence and also holding off the Houston Rockets in Game 5 of the Second Round Series in which he was injured. They seem to have found a good rhythm that the players had before Durant signed for the team and this does seem to be a difficult spot for Portland having invested so much to come up short on Thursday.

They have some decent trends that favour them and of course there is the recent NBA winning trend of backing a team that is 0-2 down in a Series on the half time spread. The layers have cottoned onto that trend and so Portland are actually by the same amount at half time as they are to win the full game.

Portland did have a big lead at half time of Game 2, but that trend of backing a team 0-2 down in a Series to be covering at the end of the first half has remained true this season. That includes the Houston Rockets doing the same in a Game 3 win over the Golden State Warriors in the Second Round Series and I think that might be the best back to back Portland who should come out with some intensity to try and make this Western Conference Series competitive.


Sunday 19th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 3 Pick: The Toronto Raptors need some of their role players to step up right now if they are going to make this Eastern Conference Finals something more than a procession for the Milwaukee Bucks. In reality the Raptors should have been at least level in the Series, but they blew a big chance in Game 1 and were then blown out by the Bucks in Game 2.

It can be easy to overreact to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks have only held serve so far in the Conference Finals by winning the first couple of games at home. However the Toronto Raptors are under pressure to respond as no team has won a PlayOff Series in the NBA when they have trailed 0-3, but teams have made positive starts to games in which they are trailing 0-2.

That was the case on Saturday when I backed the Portland Trail Blazers on the Half Time spread which saw them cover easily. The problem was they could not contain the Golden State Warriors in the second half and perhaps some fatigue is involved for the two teams who needed a Game 7 to win their Second Round Series.

You can't deny that the Toronto Raptors have to be concerned about that fatigue that has built up with some of their bigger names going cold in the fourth quarter. Being back at home might be a real inspiration though and we have seen Portland cover in the Half Time market on Saturday and the same trends apply for the Raptors here.

I just can't oppose the Milwaukee Bucks who have been so good in the NBA PlayOffs and who should be highly motivated considering the layers have set them as the underdog in this one. This is a team who have a star in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but whose role players are stepping up and different players have taken over the last couple of games to help them lead 2-0.

Milwaukee not only covered as the underdog twice on the road in the PlayOffs at the Boston Celtics, but they also won both of those games straight up. They are 9-2 against the spread as the underdog and you can add in the fact that the Bucks have won twice on the road against the Toronto Raptors already this season and both of those wins have come as the underdog too.

The Bucks have a very strong 20-6-1 record against the spread in their last twenty-seven on the road and the mental edge over the Raptors could see them come on strong in the second half of this one. I did consider laying the points on the Half Time market as I did with the Portland Trail Blazers, but my main belief is the Milwaukee Bucks being able to exert their pressure on the Raptors as they continue to give them plenty of issues with the size they have.

So many factors seem to be pointing to the road underdog winning here and I am going to back Milwaukee to do that in what should be a lower-scoring game than Game 2 barring the referees getting whistle happy again.


Monday 20th May
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: For the second game in a row the Portland Trail Blazers blew the big first half lead they had opened up by going cold in the third quarter. Once again it was the Golden State Warriors taking advantage of that and then wearing down this opponent to move to 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals as they recorded a comfortable win on the road and now have a chance to close the Finals with the first sweep in the post-season in 2019.

It won't be easy for Golden State to do that when you think of the pride with which the Portland Trail Blazers will likely be operating. They were swept out of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round twelve months ago, but another sweep would be a real body blow for the players to absorb considering they had their chances to win Game 2 and Game 3.

Damian Lillard has not been allowed to dominate the Series and his task has been made all the tougher by news that he is playing with separated ribs. I have no idea how that works, but it sounds excruciatingly painful and puts more pressure on CJ McCollum and the rest of the team to step up for him.

At times different players have managed to get hot from the field, but the Portland Trail Blazers won't be surprised that it has been hard for those role players to maintain their performance throughout the 48 minutes of each game. With the Warriors not changing what they want to do and how they want to Defend against this team, those players have begun to miss the open looks they have received and Golden State have been far too good for Portland.

While I am expecting the crowd and the players to perform with the motivation of wanting to extend this Series at least one more game and avoiding consecutive sweep defeats in the post-season, it may still not be enough for Portland. They have taken two huge mental blows having lost the last two games despite holding big leads at half time and it is tough to imagine how Portland can pick themselves up to really compete at the level they need.

It was Draymond Green who picked up the Warriors in Game 3 on Saturday and this is a team that has performed with a level of comfort even without Kevin Durant. They seem to have rallied together and gone back to the old methods that proved successful even before Durant signed for the team and Portland have not been able to cope with the power scoring surges Golden State have been able to put together.

The body language was not ideal from the Trail Blazers in Game 3 as it slipped away from them, although my one concern in backing the Warriors has to be how much intensity they are going to have in coming out for a sweep. They have needed to rally in the last couple of games with big second half recoveries to wipe out big deficits and I am not sure they will be able to do the same here knowing they will be likely able to close the Series in a couple of days time when it would return to the Oracle Arena.

However if the Trail Blazers are feeling sorry for themselves it could be a real chance for Golden State to get this Series done and then have ample time to rest before the NBA Finals are due to begin. The Warriors are 5-3 against the spread in their last eight games when leading a PlayOff Series 3-0 and all of those have been played on the road which should mean the players are very much aware of what they need to do.

Portland have bounced back from heavy losses and recent trends are favouring them, but the way the last two games have gone has been hard to shift for me. Pride is one thing, but mentally it will be difficult for Portland and I think the Warriors will be able to play their way into Game 4 and eventually pull away for another win and another cover.


Tuesday 21st May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 4 Pick: A double Overtime was needed for the Toronto Raptors to dig deep and just about hold off the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3 to pull this Series back to 1-2. The pressure is still on the home team to look after their own court or they could be facing elimination when the Eastern Conference Finals will be heading back to Milwaukee in a couple of days time.

It really took a big effort from the Raptors who basically led from wire to wire, but couldn't quite finish off Milwaukee when they had the chances to do that. Late missed free throws gave the Bucks the chance to keep extending the game and that could have taken something away from the Toronto legs even though they managed to win the game.

Kawhi Leonard had a huge game despite showing an obvious limp during Game 3 as he played 52 minutes. He admitted he is feeling sore, but Leonard has shown he wants to dig deep for his team even though he may be moving on in Free Agency at the end of the season..

Despite the loss, the Milwaukee Bucks have to still be feeling pretty confident about their chances of reaching the NBA Finals to take on the Golden State Warriors. They played as poorly as they have in any game in the PlayOffs and yet they were right there at the end with a chance of winning and that was without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe making a real impact on things.

George Hill continues to step up for the Bucks and give the bench a huge boost and it would not be a big surprise if he is given a starting spot in favour of Bledsoe who has been struggling in the post-season. Those minor adjustments could help Milwaukee move to the brink of reaching the NBA Finals, although I don't think there is anything to really worry about right now and there is a real chance they go into Game 4 with a similar mindset as the last couple of games.

The oddsmakers are certainly expecting to see a positive reaction from Milwaukee as they have been set as the favourite just two days after being the underdog in the same venue. They might be taking no chances in opposing the Bucks who are 21-5 against the spread in their last twenty-six games following a loss and who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five in Toronto.

Toronto have to be respected at home and they are 5-3 against the spread when set as the underdog being given less than 3 points. They also have performed well when hosting the best teams in the NBA, but the fatigue factor has to be going against them after the way Game 3 ended.

With the Milwaukee Bucks showing immense bounce back performances throughout the season, I am expecting a big response from the road team. I can't imagine Antetokounmpo and Middleton both struggling again as much as they did in Game 3 and those two can take the Bucks over the edge here and get into a position to close the Eastern Conference Finals in two days time.

MY PICKS: 14/05 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/05 Toronto Raptors + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/05 Golden State Warriors-Portland Trail Blazers Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/05 Portland Trail Blazers - 2.5 Points HALF TIME @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/05 Milwaukee Bucks @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/05 Golden State Warriors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Conference Finals Update: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Second Round: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

First Round: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (May 21st)

The final weekend of the Premier League 2016/17 season is played on Sunday before a few Cup Finals and a round of World Cup Qualifiers completes the campaign.

Only four days after the Scotland v England World Cup Qualifier the fixtures for the 2017/18 Premier League season will be released, although the two months wait for the new season will feel like a long time.


Arsenal v Everton Pick: They might have beaten Watford 1-0 at home last weekend, but Everton have not been at their best in the final weeks of the season as the players have achieved all of their goals for the current campaign. That doesn't mean they are going to roll over for Arsenal in this one, but Everton have looked like they have been struggling for motivation at times.

Everton haven't been that good away from home this season either and the lack of motivation compared with Arsenal might prove to be a difference maker.

Like many times in recent seasons, The Gunners are finishing the season with a flourish, but this time it looks like they are not going to do enough to finish in the top four. Arsene Wenger will urge his team to focus on their own matters and win this game to force Liverpool to do the same when they host Middlesbrough, but an early lead for Liverpool is likely to see the supporters turn on the manager.

The players have at least responded for their manager and I think Arsenal will have the majority of the play as they look to end the season with a fifth consecutive home win. Arsenal still have the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez to open the door against a stubborn Everton team who are missing some key defensive faces and I think they can win this game.

Only two teams, Chelsea and Liverpool, have beaten Everton by more than a single goal margin this season, but I will look for Arsenal to do that this weekend against a demotivated opponent.


Burnley v West Ham United Pick: There is no doubt that a number of the players in both squads will be looking forward to the end of the season in which Burnley have overachieved and West Ham United have underachieved. While Sean Dyche is preparing for the new season already, Slaven Bilic is under big pressure as manager of West Ham United with the raised expectations there.

It is important that Bilic sees a reaction from his players after the awful display in the second half of the 0-4 loss to Liverpool. West Ham United looked disorganised and offered very little resistance to the speed and creativity that Liverpool produced on Sunday.

That is not going to be the way that Burnley approach things and so it may be a little easier for West Ham United to defend this weekend. They had been looking solid in the new three at the back system before being ripped apart by Liverpool, and goals may be at a premium when you think how Burnley have just lost their edge down the stretch.

I do think Burnley have the slight edge in terms of motivation playing at home, and a narrow success for the home team would not surprise me here. However I think there could be a real end of season feel to this one and I am backing fewer than three goals to be shared out between Burnley and West Ham United in this one.


Chelsea v Sunderland Pick: There will be another party atmosphere at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea will be given the Premier League trophy at the end of this fixture. However this time the fans will likely be given a chance to thank the majority of players who led the way for the triumph in the League this season and that doesn't bode well for this Sunderland side.

It was yet another away loss for Sunderland during the week and they can thank goalkeeper Jordan Pickford for only losing by a couple of goals at Arsenal. The team looks tired and not up to the standard of the Premier League and it feels like it will be a long afternoon for them against a Chelsea team who will want to sign off at Stamford Bridge in style.

The 'win to nil' is not as attractive as it was for Arsenal to beat Sunderland on Tuesday and instead I am looking for Chelsea to win this one by a wide margin.

They did concede some sloppy goals against Watford on Monday, but Chelsea should have the key players back in the defensive unit and Sunderland have simply not shown they can score a lot of goals.

With the attacking players likely to enjoy some spaces, Chelsea can win this one with a slightly easier margin than Arsenal produced on Tuesday.


Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The last couple of weeks have been difficult for Hull City as what looked like being a positive fight against relegation were ended in unceremonious fashion. The 0-2 home loss to Sunderland seems to have deflated all confidence and belief that Marco Silva had built up and following that up with a 4-0 loss at Crystal Palace underlined that.

It will be difficult for the players to go out on a high on Sunday despite their really strong record at home under Silva’s watch. The problem for Hull City is they are facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been in rampant form and are making a serious bid to make sure they end this season with positive momentum behind them unlike last season.

On the final day last season Tottenham Hotspur visited the North East against an already relegated opponent and were humbled 5-1 at Newcastle United. That is unlikely to happen again this weekend and it is more likely that Tottenham Hotspur will reverse that scoreline if their 1-6 win at Leicester City on Thursday is anything to go by.

A team playing with the confidence Tottenham Hotspur have is going to be tough to slow down and I am not sure I can see how Hull City will be able to compete with them. While Hull City have had some really good results at home under Silva, including beating Manchester United and Liverpool, confidence has to be shot.

I can only see another strong Tottenham Hotspur win on Sunday to sign off on another season of improvement and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: 10th place looks to be on the line when Leicester City and Bournemouth meet in the final fixture for both clubs on Sunday and that might initially sound like an almost meaningless achievement. However there is no doubt the difference in feeling when ending with a top half finish compared with a bottom half finish and so both Leicester City and Bournemouth should be motivated enough.

Leicester City are coming off a humbling experience from Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday and there has to be some tiredness in the legs. That is an area Bournemouth will look to expose with their passing game keeping the home players on the move and chasing the game.

However The Foxes have been very good at home under Craig Shakespeare and I think Thursday might just be an exception to the rule. Leicester City have scored plenty of goals since Shakespeare took over from Claudio Ranieri, but defensive injuries means there will be chances for Bournemouth too.

It does feel like both clubs will create opportunities for the likes of Jamie Vardy and Josh King and I am going to look for the season to finish with a flourish at the King Power Stadium on Sunday.

I backed goals when Leicester City hosted Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday and I think there will be goals in this one as two attacking teams meet.


Liverpool v Middlesbrough Pick: This is a huge game for Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool for the development of the club as they are on the brink of getting back into the Champions League. The financial aspect is one element, but being able to offer big name players the chance to compete in the premier European competition is huge for Liverpool as they try and bridge the gap to the teams above them in England.

Failure is simply not an option for Liverpool and the only way they can guarantee their place in the top four of the Premier League is by winning this fixture. The concern for the fans has to be the fact that Liverpool have not won any of their last 3 at Anfield against the likes of Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Southampton, and that will open the door for Arsenal.

However, I think facing Middlesbrough or Sunderland would have been the ideal situation for Liverpool and I think an early goal could potentially see Middlesbrough crumble. They have tried to be more positive under Steve Agnew, but that has seen the side concede 11 goals in their last 3 away games and at least three times in each game.

Middlesbrough have looked disinterested and lacking belief in their losses to Chelsea and Southampton over the last two weeks and I am not sure they can pick themselves up to dent the Liverpool bid to make the top four.

The one thing Liverpool can do is score goals and I expect they are going to be able to breach the Middlesbrough defences a few times. It could be nervy if there is a narrow lead being protected by the home team, but I can see Liverpool putting Middlesbrough to the sword early and creating enough chances to win this game by a comfortable margin to ensure Champions League Football is back at Anfield in August.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: This is clearly a game that both Manchester United and Crystal Palace would likely happily set aside and move on to more important matters. After confirming their place in the Premier League last weekend, the Crystal Palace players may easily have booked their holiday plans for the coming couple of weeks before the World Cup Qualifiers for some and the focus and intensity might not be there.

On the other hand, Manchester United are not playing a recognised team in this final game with the Europa League Final just days away and Jose Mourinho has already stated he hoped Crystal Palace will take it easy against his young team.

It does make the prices on a Crystal Palace win attractive to a point, but those have shortened in the last week as Mourinho's intentions have been made clear. Now that Crystal Palace have secured their place, it is also hard to know how much the players will really push forward to win here even if someone like Wilfried Zaha would love to show the Old Trafford crowd what didn't work in his time with Manchester United.

The young Manchester United players will have an education trying to break down a Crystal Palace team organised by Sam Allardyce and this feels like it could have a pre-season kind of feel for both teams.

That usually means limited goals and the fans at Old Trafford may have to sit through another 1-1 scoreline which has been grating on so many over the course of the season. That scoreline is the one that worries me when it comes to opposing both teams scoring here like I did when Manchester United travelled down to St Mary's during the week, but I will look for this game to feature fewer than three goals on Sunday.


Southampton v Stoke City Pick: With the season ending on Sunday, it is hard to know what the future holds for Southampton and Stoke City who have both struggled down the stretch which won't have pleased the fans. It would be a huge surprise if Stoke City didn't give Mark Hughes another transfer window to bring in the players he wants to improve this squad, but Southampton are almost certainly going to be looking for someone to replace Claude Puel.

A lack of goals has been the complaint for both Southampton and Stoke City and all the signs are pointing to another game which will send the fans to sleep at St Mary's. There is a lot of endeavour in the Southampton side, but they can lack a cutting edge, while Stoke City's flair players just simply don't play as well away from the Bet365 Stadium.

There are many an occasion at the end of season when teams loosen up and produce fireworks and that could happen here if an early goal is scored by either. However it feels much more likely that the teams could sleepwalk through the ninety minutes with limited chances at both ends and so I will go back to the same pick I had when Southampton hosted Manchester United on Wednesday.

Southampton have failed to scored in 5 of their last 6 home League games, but they have also had 3 goalless draws in that time including on Wednesday. Stoke City had failed to score in 6 straight away games before the 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last time out and I will back one, if not both, team to fail to score on Sunday.


Swansea City v West Brom Pick: Instead of the tension filled final day of the season that Paul Clement and the Swansea City supporters must have been expecting, this game at the Liberty Stadium is a chance for the fans to show their appreciation of their club which has avoided relegation to the Championship.

The hard work will begin on Monday for Clement, but for now he will send the players out to enjoy their relative successes. It should mean Swansea City can play with some freedom and enjoyment in front of their fans where they have won 5 of their last 7 Premier League games.

That has been vital to their achievement of escaping the bottom three and another win looks to be on the cards on Sunday against a West Brom team who have been demotivated since March. The lack of intensity has seen West Brom lose 6 of their last 7 Premier League games and the players may struggle to match Swansea City in this final game.

It is what I am expecting on Sunday and I can see Swansea City winning another home game under Paul Clement which will give them plenty of belief going into the new season. Home form is likely going to be important for them again in the 2017/18 campaign and I will back The Swans at odds against to earn the three points on offer on Sunday.


Watford v Manchester City Pick: The decision to announce Walter Mazzarri's sacking days before the end of the season is an interesting one from Watford and I am not sure he is going to get the reaction from the players he would want. There have been suggestions that the players and the manager have not seen eye to eye for some time and now he is going, the current team may decide they can perhaps ease off.

That would be a huge danger against this Manchester City team who have looked rampant at times over the last few games of the season. They can score plenty of goals and being away from home has suited Manchester City with the expectation that opponents will come onto them at some stage and leave spaces open.

Watford will feel they can create chances against this defence, but the lack of motivation could be a real problem for them.

On the other hand, Manchester City will be searching for the three points that will take them into the Champions League Group Stage next season and I expect they will earn those. Manchester City have won 11 times away from home in the Premier League, which only trails Chelsea's 13 away wins, and 8 of those have come by at least two goals.

The majority of those have come against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table and I can only see one winner this weekend when these teams conclude their campaigns.

I just don't think the Watford players will be able to match the intensity that Manchester City will come in with, nor deal with the pace and creativity in the final third considering all the defensive absences in the home team's squad. I will look for Manchester City to conclude the season with a bang and cover the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Burnley-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United-Crystal Palace Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton-Stoke City Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)