I was hoping a few things would have been cleared up in my personal life that would have given me the time to write out fuller Tennis Pick threads over the last week.
However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.
I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.
With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Strasbourg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strasbourg. Show all posts
Tuesday, 21 May 2019
Thursday, 24 May 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (May 25th)
The final week before a Grand Slam begins is a tough time to be making daily picks from the Tennis Tour and it is no surprise I have only had three picks all week despite four tournaments being played.
The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.
Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.
Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.
The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.
Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.
It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.
Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.
On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.
It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.
Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.
His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.
A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.
Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.
The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.
It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.
Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.
Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.
Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.
The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.
Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.
There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.
Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.
Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.
The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.
Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.
It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.
Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.
On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.
It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.
Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.
His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.
A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.
Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.
The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.
It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.
Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.
Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.
Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.
The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.
Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.
There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Wednesday, 23 May 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (May 23rd)
The week before any Grand Slam event can be tough to get a real read of because players are going to be focusing on keeping something in the tank for the upcoming Slam.
Of course the majority of those players expecting to challenge for the title at the French Open are not playing this week and it does mean we have some open draws.
I haven't found a lot of options over the first couple of days at the four tournaments with a number of players in the draws that would not normally be playing at this level. As we progress through to the latter stages of the tournaments we should get more familiar match ups and we have reached the Second Round on Wednesday which has produced some options to be backed.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Natalia Vikhlyantseva: Two Russian players meet in a bid to find some form before the French Open as both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Natalia Vikhlyantseva have struggled on the clay courts.
Out of the two players there does seem to be more room for improvement from Pavlyuchenkova who has previously had some success on this surface.
Pavlyuchenkova has definitely had the tougher draws during the clay court season compared with Vikhlyantseva and the latter has not had the same quality wins as her compatriot has had.
I expect in this match Pavlyuchenkova will have more joy from the return of serve than she has had in her clay court matches so far. That isn't a surprise when facing the quality of servers she has seen, but Vikhlyantseva has not been able to get the best out of her serve on the clay courts and it should mean Pavlyuchenkova has some success.
Her own serve is a little more consistent and I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to win and cover on Wednesday.
Sam Stosur v Daria Gavrilova: This is a virtual pick 'em set by the layers and that says a lot about the declining numbers Sam Stosur has been producing in 2018 overall and on the clay courts.
At one time Stosur was one of the best clay courters on the WTA Tour and she has enjoyed considerable success on the surface, but she has struggled for consistency this season. One of the major issues has been the lack of impact on the return of serve which has put more pressure to get it right when serving and allowed opponents to take control of matches.
The return should have a better outing against the Daria Gavrilova serve which is a vulnerable shot and forces Gavrilova into tough matches regardless of the opponent. She did reach the Final in Strasbourg last season but generally Gavrilova has been a little hard to predict on the clay courts.
That Final ended in a loss to Stosur and Gavrilova had to take another in Prague on the clay courts this season when she couldn't continue after being taken into a deciding set.
There should be a number of breaks in this match, but I do think Stosur may still be the superior clay court player despite the declining form. It will be close and may need a decider but I will look fo the veteran Australian winning this match.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Sam Stosur @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Of course the majority of those players expecting to challenge for the title at the French Open are not playing this week and it does mean we have some open draws.
I haven't found a lot of options over the first couple of days at the four tournaments with a number of players in the draws that would not normally be playing at this level. As we progress through to the latter stages of the tournaments we should get more familiar match ups and we have reached the Second Round on Wednesday which has produced some options to be backed.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Natalia Vikhlyantseva: Two Russian players meet in a bid to find some form before the French Open as both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Natalia Vikhlyantseva have struggled on the clay courts.
Out of the two players there does seem to be more room for improvement from Pavlyuchenkova who has previously had some success on this surface.
Pavlyuchenkova has definitely had the tougher draws during the clay court season compared with Vikhlyantseva and the latter has not had the same quality wins as her compatriot has had.
I expect in this match Pavlyuchenkova will have more joy from the return of serve than she has had in her clay court matches so far. That isn't a surprise when facing the quality of servers she has seen, but Vikhlyantseva has not been able to get the best out of her serve on the clay courts and it should mean Pavlyuchenkova has some success.
Her own serve is a little more consistent and I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to win and cover on Wednesday.
Sam Stosur v Daria Gavrilova: This is a virtual pick 'em set by the layers and that says a lot about the declining numbers Sam Stosur has been producing in 2018 overall and on the clay courts.
At one time Stosur was one of the best clay courters on the WTA Tour and she has enjoyed considerable success on the surface, but she has struggled for consistency this season. One of the major issues has been the lack of impact on the return of serve which has put more pressure to get it right when serving and allowed opponents to take control of matches.
The return should have a better outing against the Daria Gavrilova serve which is a vulnerable shot and forces Gavrilova into tough matches regardless of the opponent. She did reach the Final in Strasbourg last season but generally Gavrilova has been a little hard to predict on the clay courts.
That Final ended in a loss to Stosur and Gavrilova had to take another in Prague on the clay courts this season when she couldn't continue after being taken into a deciding set.
There should be a number of breaks in this match, but I do think Stosur may still be the superior clay court player despite the declining form. It will be close and may need a decider but I will look fo the veteran Australian winning this match.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Sam Stosur @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sunday, 20 May 2018
Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 20th)
This has been a busy, busy weekend and it has been tough to get the time I need to write down my analysis of matches to be played in Rome.
We have gotten to the final day in Rome on Sunday and this week we will also see the four tournaments to be played in the week ahead also beginning First Round matches on Sunday. The main reason for that is the French Open actually gets going next Sunday rather than the traditional Monday start for the other Slams and so there is a pressure on the tournaments this week to make sure they are concluded by Saturday.
The Picks on Saturday were not as good as Friday with a couple of near misses turning my fortunes, but it has still been a winning week to this point. Hopefully the two remaining Picks from Rome can make sure there are some positive numbers to add to the season totals.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Sachia Vickery - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rome Update: 15-13, + 1.34 Units (56 Units Staked, + 2.39% Yield)
We have gotten to the final day in Rome on Sunday and this week we will also see the four tournaments to be played in the week ahead also beginning First Round matches on Sunday. The main reason for that is the French Open actually gets going next Sunday rather than the traditional Monday start for the other Slams and so there is a pressure on the tournaments this week to make sure they are concluded by Saturday.
The Picks on Saturday were not as good as Friday with a couple of near misses turning my fortunes, but it has still been a winning week to this point. Hopefully the two remaining Picks from Rome can make sure there are some positive numbers to add to the season totals.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Sachia Vickery - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rome Update: 15-13, + 1.34 Units (56 Units Staked, + 2.39% Yield)
Monday, 22 May 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (May 22nd)
The final week before any Grand Slam tournament is usually one where the top names decide to skip out and keep the energy fresh for the major event ahead. That is the case for the most part this week with the French Open due to begin next Sunday, although there are still plenty of recognisable names in the events being played across four tournaments this week.
In saying that, it can be the attempt to ride some treacherous seas when negotiating picks through weeks like this and is certainly one of caution for myself.
While I am planning to make picks, I do think there will be the potential for not really seeing anything worth backing with the fact that the French Open is beginning this weekend in my mind. Some of the tournaments have already got into the main draw on Sunday and I didn't have any picks from the events and we will see how it goes over the week.
Oceane Dodin - 1.5 games v Shuai Zhang: It has been a tough battle on the clay courts for Shuai Zhang and confidence is going to have been damaged having lost five in a row on the surface. In general it has been a disappointing season for Zhang so far and this First Round match looks a tough one on paper for her.
Oceane Dodin has yet to really put together the consistency she would like on the WTA Tour but she has improved her World Ranking and looks to be a player capable of fulfilling the potential she clearly has. Playing on the clay courts shouldn't be an issue for a player that has grown up on the surface, although the inconsistency already mentioned makes it tough to really believe in her fully.
However, I do think Dodin has had enough wins over the last few weeks to believe in her game a little more than Zhang does at this moment. It can be argued that Dodin has the more 'respectable' losses on the clay over the last few weeks and I think she can get the better of Zhang even if it takes three sets to get the job done.
Zhang's last eight losses on the clay courts would have failed to see her get within this number and I will look for Dodin to play just big enough to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.
Alize Cornet v Shuai Peng: This has been set as a pick 'em contest by the layers and I think that says a lot about the inconsistency that Alize Cornet continues to produce on a week by week basis. Her home Grand Slam is coming up next week and Cornet has to show some form to build momentum to take into the French Open, although failing to reach her standards will give Shuai Peng the edge to win the match.
The clay court season has not been one that Cornet has enjoyed so far, although her loss to Elina Svitolina came in two tough sets last week in Rome against the eventual winner of that Premier Event.
Peng is not really on that level, especially not on the clay courts and I think she may be on the wrong end of another narrow loss. Both of her clay court losses in 2017 have come in three sets against very strong opponents, but Peng may not have the same nous on the clay courts as the Frenchwoman she faces in the First Round.
I have little doubt there will be shifts of momentum during the match on the way to a Cornet win, which is never straightforward. However I do think Cornet should have the superior clay court game compared with Peng and she can win here this week in another three set match.
MY PICKS: Oceane Dodin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
In saying that, it can be the attempt to ride some treacherous seas when negotiating picks through weeks like this and is certainly one of caution for myself.
While I am planning to make picks, I do think there will be the potential for not really seeing anything worth backing with the fact that the French Open is beginning this weekend in my mind. Some of the tournaments have already got into the main draw on Sunday and I didn't have any picks from the events and we will see how it goes over the week.
Oceane Dodin - 1.5 games v Shuai Zhang: It has been a tough battle on the clay courts for Shuai Zhang and confidence is going to have been damaged having lost five in a row on the surface. In general it has been a disappointing season for Zhang so far and this First Round match looks a tough one on paper for her.
Oceane Dodin has yet to really put together the consistency she would like on the WTA Tour but she has improved her World Ranking and looks to be a player capable of fulfilling the potential she clearly has. Playing on the clay courts shouldn't be an issue for a player that has grown up on the surface, although the inconsistency already mentioned makes it tough to really believe in her fully.
However, I do think Dodin has had enough wins over the last few weeks to believe in her game a little more than Zhang does at this moment. It can be argued that Dodin has the more 'respectable' losses on the clay over the last few weeks and I think she can get the better of Zhang even if it takes three sets to get the job done.
Zhang's last eight losses on the clay courts would have failed to see her get within this number and I will look for Dodin to play just big enough to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.
Alize Cornet v Shuai Peng: This has been set as a pick 'em contest by the layers and I think that says a lot about the inconsistency that Alize Cornet continues to produce on a week by week basis. Her home Grand Slam is coming up next week and Cornet has to show some form to build momentum to take into the French Open, although failing to reach her standards will give Shuai Peng the edge to win the match.
The clay court season has not been one that Cornet has enjoyed so far, although her loss to Elina Svitolina came in two tough sets last week in Rome against the eventual winner of that Premier Event.
Peng is not really on that level, especially not on the clay courts and I think she may be on the wrong end of another narrow loss. Both of her clay court losses in 2017 have come in three sets against very strong opponents, but Peng may not have the same nous on the clay courts as the Frenchwoman she faces in the First Round.
I have little doubt there will be shifts of momentum during the match on the way to a Cornet win, which is never straightforward. However I do think Cornet should have the superior clay court game compared with Peng and she can win here this week in another three set match.
MY PICKS: Oceane Dodin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wednesday, 20 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 20th)
Wednesday is a very busy day across the tournaments being played this week with all of them looking to get the results in the bag by Saturday as the French Open will begin on Sunday. That means all the Quarter Finals will be played on Thursday, Semi Finals on Friday and Finals on Saturday which means the tournaments are looking to get on schedule on Wednesday.
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
Monday, 18 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 18th)
Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova both won their respective tournaments in Rome to head into the French Open with momentum and both will have a well earned rest this week to get focused for the next Grand Slam of the season.
Djokovic has been in great form all season and has every chance of winning the title that he craves more than any other- he would have hardened as favourite having won the titles in Monte Carlo and Rome and Djokovic will be expected to win the title in Paris in three weeks time.
The biggest threat to Djokovic may actually be himself- can he cope with the huge expectation on his shoulders to win the title in Paris or will that hinder him at a critical moment and give one of his rivals the chance to knock him off? I'd say that is probably the biggest question going into Roland Garros next week and one I am looking forward to see how it gets answered.
The woman's draw is much more open with the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep leading the way when it comes to the expectation of the fans. However, all four of those players have to hope the draw favours them with some dangerous players like Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka and Carla Suarez Navarro all capable of beating them if they are off their game and I think it could be the WTA draw which is the more intriguing.
This week is one where the majority of the big name players will be taking a week off to prepare for the Grand Slam coming up and I will be doing the same for the majority of it. However, there are some opportunities to make picks and I will take them where I see them.
It might mean that I miss a day or two during the course of the week if there is nothing I like, while this weekend the concentration will shift to the French Open which is the Grand Slam that gets things kicked off on Sunday.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Joao Souza: This is going to be fun simply to hear how the umpire is going to distinguish between Joao Sousa from Portugal and Joao Souza from Brazil.
Both players will feel the clay courts are their best surfaces, but neither has had much success during the last six weeks although Sousa has at least put together a couple of wins during that time.
On the other hand, Souza has struggled to bring the form to Europe that took him into a couple of long runs during the South American Golden Swing earlier in the season. He has lost six straight matches, including a couple of early losses in the qualifiers, and his confidence has to be in a poor place heading into this tournament.
I don't feel overly comfortable backing Joao Sousa simply because he has to work so hard to hold serve, but I think he has at least put some wins together during this clay court season in Europe and is the better player of the two. As long as Sousa can pressure the Souza serve as expected, he should find a way to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Christine McHale: Two young American players meet in the First Round this week and neither will really expect to have a big impact at the French Open despite some positive results on the clay over the last six weeks.
Madison Keys has had two early exits in Madrid and Rome since reaching the Final in Charleston, while Christine McHale reached the Quarter Final in Rome despite having a number of early losses prior to that tournament. McHale was aided by Serena Williams withdrawing from their Third Round match, but four wins in the Italian capital might give her some confidence to take into the remainder of the season.
Both of these players will feel confident in the conditions in Strasbourg having both reached the Semi Final here last season, but both Keys and McHale will be hoping another strong week isn't followed by a First Round exit in Paris.
I like Keys in the match because I think her extra power and ability on the serve will just set things up a little easier for her. Keys can be inconsistent off the ground at times, but she should have enough in her game to force McHale backwards and that should give her the edge in the match and help Keys win this one 64, 64.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Monica Puig hasn't been in the best form coming into Strasbourg, but it was a similar story for her twelve months ago before she went on to win the title here. It is going to be a difficult task for Puig to defend her title with a very tough First Round match against Sam Stosur and I favour the latter to come through the match.
Ut has been a disappointing clay court season for Stosur too coming into this event as she looks to pick up some form for the remainder of the 2015 season. The Australian has a strong serve, but has failed to back it up effectively from the ground and that has just worn her out at times.
Stosur's losses have come at a higher level than Puig's and I think she has been close in a couple of losses which suggests she isn't so far away from having a decent run somewhere. The winner of this match may feel they can go all the way, but I think Stosur's serve will give her the slight edge in both sets.
Being back in Strasbourg should inspire the defending Champion Puig, but I think Stosur finds a chink in her armour a couple more times than the other way round which leads to a 64, 64 win for the Australian.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rome Final: 11-12, - 4.30 Units (46 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: + 41.99 Units (653 Units Staked, + 6.43% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Djokovic has been in great form all season and has every chance of winning the title that he craves more than any other- he would have hardened as favourite having won the titles in Monte Carlo and Rome and Djokovic will be expected to win the title in Paris in three weeks time.
The biggest threat to Djokovic may actually be himself- can he cope with the huge expectation on his shoulders to win the title in Paris or will that hinder him at a critical moment and give one of his rivals the chance to knock him off? I'd say that is probably the biggest question going into Roland Garros next week and one I am looking forward to see how it gets answered.
The woman's draw is much more open with the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep leading the way when it comes to the expectation of the fans. However, all four of those players have to hope the draw favours them with some dangerous players like Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka and Carla Suarez Navarro all capable of beating them if they are off their game and I think it could be the WTA draw which is the more intriguing.
This week is one where the majority of the big name players will be taking a week off to prepare for the Grand Slam coming up and I will be doing the same for the majority of it. However, there are some opportunities to make picks and I will take them where I see them.
It might mean that I miss a day or two during the course of the week if there is nothing I like, while this weekend the concentration will shift to the French Open which is the Grand Slam that gets things kicked off on Sunday.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Joao Souza: This is going to be fun simply to hear how the umpire is going to distinguish between Joao Sousa from Portugal and Joao Souza from Brazil.
Both players will feel the clay courts are their best surfaces, but neither has had much success during the last six weeks although Sousa has at least put together a couple of wins during that time.
On the other hand, Souza has struggled to bring the form to Europe that took him into a couple of long runs during the South American Golden Swing earlier in the season. He has lost six straight matches, including a couple of early losses in the qualifiers, and his confidence has to be in a poor place heading into this tournament.
I don't feel overly comfortable backing Joao Sousa simply because he has to work so hard to hold serve, but I think he has at least put some wins together during this clay court season in Europe and is the better player of the two. As long as Sousa can pressure the Souza serve as expected, he should find a way to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Christine McHale: Two young American players meet in the First Round this week and neither will really expect to have a big impact at the French Open despite some positive results on the clay over the last six weeks.
Madison Keys has had two early exits in Madrid and Rome since reaching the Final in Charleston, while Christine McHale reached the Quarter Final in Rome despite having a number of early losses prior to that tournament. McHale was aided by Serena Williams withdrawing from their Third Round match, but four wins in the Italian capital might give her some confidence to take into the remainder of the season.
Both of these players will feel confident in the conditions in Strasbourg having both reached the Semi Final here last season, but both Keys and McHale will be hoping another strong week isn't followed by a First Round exit in Paris.
I like Keys in the match because I think her extra power and ability on the serve will just set things up a little easier for her. Keys can be inconsistent off the ground at times, but she should have enough in her game to force McHale backwards and that should give her the edge in the match and help Keys win this one 64, 64.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Monica Puig hasn't been in the best form coming into Strasbourg, but it was a similar story for her twelve months ago before she went on to win the title here. It is going to be a difficult task for Puig to defend her title with a very tough First Round match against Sam Stosur and I favour the latter to come through the match.
Ut has been a disappointing clay court season for Stosur too coming into this event as she looks to pick up some form for the remainder of the 2015 season. The Australian has a strong serve, but has failed to back it up effectively from the ground and that has just worn her out at times.
Stosur's losses have come at a higher level than Puig's and I think she has been close in a couple of losses which suggests she isn't so far away from having a decent run somewhere. The winner of this match may feel they can go all the way, but I think Stosur's serve will give her the slight edge in both sets.
Being back in Strasbourg should inspire the defending Champion Puig, but I think Stosur finds a chink in her armour a couple more times than the other way round which leads to a 64, 64 win for the Australian.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rome Final: 11-12, - 4.30 Units (46 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: + 41.99 Units (653 Units Staked, + 6.43% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 24 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 24th)
The French Open draw was made on Friday and I will have a full breakdown of the event before the Grand Slam gets underway on Sunday. For now, I am concentrating on the Finals of this week's tournaments that are to be completed on Saturday and allow the players to make their way to Paris with some momentum behind them.
Of course, the majority of the players left on Saturday won't be expected to have a deep run in Paris over the next two weeks, but the added confidence they have earned this week may make them surprise packages against the more established names on the Tour.
After the disappointment of Thursday, Friday proved to be a much better day with the luck ending up going with me rather than against me. That was proven by Ivo Karlovic's win in his Semi Final in Dusseldorf despite winning fewer points than Jiri Vesely and also means the week has at least recovered from the terrible Thursday action.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Both players have come through to the Final with little trouble in the Semi Final, but overall you would have to say that Federico Delbonis has had the better week in terms of results and ease of moving through the draw.
That won't matter to Ernests Gulbis who will look to keep the pressure on his opponent with a big serve that can produce a lot of easy points. The easy power that the Latvian can generate off the ground should also give Delbonis plenty to think about, although you have to credit the young Argentine for reaching another Tour Final on the clay courts.
The lefty serve will cause some problems for Gulbis, particularly early in the match, but I think the latter will still get involved in more service games and eventually that pressure will help him breakthrough.
At the end of the match, I would be expecting Gulbis to be lifting the title after a 64, 64 win.
Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: I have a lot of respect for what Silvia Soler-Espinosa has done this week considering she had to come through the qualifiers before heading all the way to the Final in Strasbourg, but her run should come to an end at the hands of Monica Puig.
The hard hitting South American is very comfortable on the clay courts and she has been very impressive all week and I think Puig has the confidence and ability to finish it off in the right manner and pick up the title.
I expect Puig's power to be one of the key differences between the two players and I also think three consecutive matches that have needed three sets to be completed may end up taking the toll on Soler-Espinosa. That is more fatiguing when considering matches have been played without rest for three or four days and it has already been a long week for the Spaniard.
There should be some breaks of serve, but I expect Puig to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.50 Units (27 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Of course, the majority of the players left on Saturday won't be expected to have a deep run in Paris over the next two weeks, but the added confidence they have earned this week may make them surprise packages against the more established names on the Tour.
After the disappointment of Thursday, Friday proved to be a much better day with the luck ending up going with me rather than against me. That was proven by Ivo Karlovic's win in his Semi Final in Dusseldorf despite winning fewer points than Jiri Vesely and also means the week has at least recovered from the terrible Thursday action.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Both players have come through to the Final with little trouble in the Semi Final, but overall you would have to say that Federico Delbonis has had the better week in terms of results and ease of moving through the draw.
That won't matter to Ernests Gulbis who will look to keep the pressure on his opponent with a big serve that can produce a lot of easy points. The easy power that the Latvian can generate off the ground should also give Delbonis plenty to think about, although you have to credit the young Argentine for reaching another Tour Final on the clay courts.
The lefty serve will cause some problems for Gulbis, particularly early in the match, but I think the latter will still get involved in more service games and eventually that pressure will help him breakthrough.
At the end of the match, I would be expecting Gulbis to be lifting the title after a 64, 64 win.
Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: I have a lot of respect for what Silvia Soler-Espinosa has done this week considering she had to come through the qualifiers before heading all the way to the Final in Strasbourg, but her run should come to an end at the hands of Monica Puig.
The hard hitting South American is very comfortable on the clay courts and she has been very impressive all week and I think Puig has the confidence and ability to finish it off in the right manner and pick up the title.
I expect Puig's power to be one of the key differences between the two players and I also think three consecutive matches that have needed three sets to be completed may end up taking the toll on Soler-Espinosa. That is more fatiguing when considering matches have been played without rest for three or four days and it has already been a long week for the Spaniard.
There should be some breaks of serve, but I expect Puig to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.50 Units (27 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Friday, 23 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 23rd)
That was pretty much as awful a day as I have had in the whole season with players not getting over the line and winning matches despite taking first sets/serving for the match and it was an extremely disappointing Thursday.
Friday sees the tournaments reach the Semi Finals, but the biggest talking story in tennis will be the draw for the French Open that will take place in the morning before the Grand Slam begins on Sunday. I think the draw is probably as important as it has been at Roland Garros for a decade, especially on the men's side, as the top two players in the world may just be a little vulnerable if they have to go through some big tests to reach the Final.
I will have an outright preview of the French Open out this weekend before the tournament begins once I have had the chance to look through the draw that will be out by lunch time.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Ernests Gulbis has dominated Albert Montanes since being beaten by the Spaniard at the French Open in 2007 and he is much more of a resilient competitor these days. Gulbis highlighted that in his Quarter Final win yesterday when he came from a break down in the final set to beat Dmitry Tursunov in a tie-break.
He seems in a much better place mentally these days and could be the player that de-thrones Montanes as the winner in Nice, even if the veteran showed a real fight to defend his title by coming from a set down to beat Leonardo Mayer on Thursday.
However, Montanes' serve is much more vulnerable against someone like Gulbis who can dominate behind his own serve and create pressure with 'easy' holds. That proved to be the case when these two players met in Barcelona in April on the clay courts and I can see Gulbis proving a little too good again for the veteran.
Gulbis came through a tight first set and then ran away with the match and he may do something similar on Friday.
Ivo Karlovic v Jiri Vesely: There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the favourite surface for Ivo Karlovic, but he has proven this week that he is capable of producing big results on the clay. I think he is being completely under-rated against the talented youngster Jiri Vesely who may struggle mentally with facing a server like Karlovic.
Older heads can stay in the match by accepting their inability to get a racquet on every Karlovic serve effectively, but a younger player may allow it to pressure him mentally and also struggle to cope with that facet of the game. Karlovic also earned a big win over Juan Monaco, a real clay courter, on Thursday so his confidence has to be high.
I don't doubt Jiri Vesely is feeling very good about his own game after dismissing Jurgen Melzer without a breaking a sweat in the Quarter Final. The Czech player is comfortable on the clay courts, but I still don't think he should be such a strong favourite to win this kind of match just yet in his career.
With that in mind, a small interest in Ivo Karlovic to win the match is my call.
Monica Puig v Madison Keys: There is a lot to like about Monica Puig's game from the heavy groundies to the fact that she can protect serve effectively and I think she proves a little too good for Madison Keys in this Semi Final.
Keys certainly has a bright future on the WTA Tour in my opinion, but I think she has yet to gain the consistency that is required to make sure her solid first serve is backed up by a decent second serve.
That is where I think this match will be won- I think Puig is going to win a higher percentage of second serve points and I think she is going to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that looks like giving her the edge in this match where the slightest edge could make the whole difference.
Both players have enjoyed a successful week to this point, but I expect Monica Puig to be playing in the Final on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Monica Puig @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.01% Yield)
Friday sees the tournaments reach the Semi Finals, but the biggest talking story in tennis will be the draw for the French Open that will take place in the morning before the Grand Slam begins on Sunday. I think the draw is probably as important as it has been at Roland Garros for a decade, especially on the men's side, as the top two players in the world may just be a little vulnerable if they have to go through some big tests to reach the Final.
I will have an outright preview of the French Open out this weekend before the tournament begins once I have had the chance to look through the draw that will be out by lunch time.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Ernests Gulbis has dominated Albert Montanes since being beaten by the Spaniard at the French Open in 2007 and he is much more of a resilient competitor these days. Gulbis highlighted that in his Quarter Final win yesterday when he came from a break down in the final set to beat Dmitry Tursunov in a tie-break.
He seems in a much better place mentally these days and could be the player that de-thrones Montanes as the winner in Nice, even if the veteran showed a real fight to defend his title by coming from a set down to beat Leonardo Mayer on Thursday.
However, Montanes' serve is much more vulnerable against someone like Gulbis who can dominate behind his own serve and create pressure with 'easy' holds. That proved to be the case when these two players met in Barcelona in April on the clay courts and I can see Gulbis proving a little too good again for the veteran.
Gulbis came through a tight first set and then ran away with the match and he may do something similar on Friday.
Ivo Karlovic v Jiri Vesely: There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the favourite surface for Ivo Karlovic, but he has proven this week that he is capable of producing big results on the clay. I think he is being completely under-rated against the talented youngster Jiri Vesely who may struggle mentally with facing a server like Karlovic.
Older heads can stay in the match by accepting their inability to get a racquet on every Karlovic serve effectively, but a younger player may allow it to pressure him mentally and also struggle to cope with that facet of the game. Karlovic also earned a big win over Juan Monaco, a real clay courter, on Thursday so his confidence has to be high.
I don't doubt Jiri Vesely is feeling very good about his own game after dismissing Jurgen Melzer without a breaking a sweat in the Quarter Final. The Czech player is comfortable on the clay courts, but I still don't think he should be such a strong favourite to win this kind of match just yet in his career.
With that in mind, a small interest in Ivo Karlovic to win the match is my call.
Monica Puig v Madison Keys: There is a lot to like about Monica Puig's game from the heavy groundies to the fact that she can protect serve effectively and I think she proves a little too good for Madison Keys in this Semi Final.
Keys certainly has a bright future on the WTA Tour in my opinion, but I think she has yet to gain the consistency that is required to make sure her solid first serve is backed up by a decent second serve.
That is where I think this match will be won- I think Puig is going to win a higher percentage of second serve points and I think she is going to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that looks like giving her the edge in this match where the slightest edge could make the whole difference.
Both players have enjoyed a successful week to this point, but I expect Monica Puig to be playing in the Final on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Monica Puig @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.01% Yield)
Monday, 19 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 20th)
Two Masters tournaments have come and gone on the clay courts and that has left Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as the clear favourites to win in Roland Garros which begins at the end of this week.
They have both looked vulnerable at times and I am looking forward to the draw on Friday which will make it clearer as to who is likely to pick up the title in Paris, but the top two players in the World have certainly strengthened their positions at the top of the market for the French Open.
Serena Williams looked much stronger in Rome than when she was forced to withdraw from Madrid and I would expect her to remain a strong favourite to retain her title won at the French Open twelve months ago. If Williams brings her form into Roland Garros, it will be tough to prevent her winning the title, but over the last eighteen months we have seen her have one really poor match in the Grand Slams and suffer some surprising defeats that have prevented her sweeping all titles in front of her.
The absence of Victoria Azarenka hurts the women's draw, but the likes of Maria Sharapova, Na Li and perhaps losing French Open Finalist Sara Errani could have deep runs in the tournament and take advantage of any slip up from Williams.
Rome at least provided an upturn in fortunes for the picks after a pretty terrible time in Madrid and gives some momentum to move into this final week before the French Open. This week can be a dangerous one with most of the biggest names on the Tour having time to recover before the start of the second Grand Slam event of 2014, so there may be a few surprising results. However, most of the players taking part have very small real ambitions at the French Open and will likely put in a good shift to try and win a title.
I might not necessarily make picks for every day this week unless there is something that catches my eye, but hopefully we will see a positive week to take into the French Open whose main draw will be completed on Friday morning.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: It was a strong week for Julien Benneteau who won the tournament in Bordeaux, albeit at the Challenger level, but that may also make him vulnerable early in the event in Nice.
Playing in front of the home support will inspire Benneteau, but he hasn't really performed on the clay courts in the last few seasons and may be a little fatigued from the events of last week. The win also came on the level below the main Tour and I think that is where Carlos Berlocq could take advantage.
The Argentinian has won a clay court title just three weeks ago in Oeiras, and even Berlocq's disappearance over the last two weeks might not be as big a concern in this match. Of the two, Berlocq is much more comfortable on the clay courts and he has won two titles at this level on the surface.
Berlocq might need three sets to come through, but I expect him to do that and cover this handicap.
Stefanie Voegele v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: Neither of these players have had a great season as they come into this match with identical 5-12 record in main Tour matches, although Silvia Soler-Espinosa has won a couple of matches in the qualifiers to boost the confidence.
That at least shows some form compared with what Stefanie Voegele has produced over the last three months, but the Swiss player has dominated the head to head with Soler-Espinosa.
Including in that is a win in Morocco last month, although I would have thought the clay courts would favour Soler-Espinosa more than Voegele. That hasn't been the case and I think Voegele has some sort of match up problem for the Spaniard to deal with and shouldn't be an underdog in this match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Any time Sloane Stephens is playing in a smaller tournament where the attendance may not bring in the grandeur she loves, she can be guilty of perhaps not taking a match as seriously as she should.
Stephens has a ton of talent but her work ethic has to be questioned at times- how can a player that has made Quarter Finals in three of the four Slams yet to have made one Final in any Tour event is beyond me.
It hasn't been a good start to 2014 for a player that seemed to have made her breakthrough last season, but Stephens should have too much for Julia Goerges. This is a player that has struggled in the last couple of years and is now outside of the top 100 and her inconsistency is not helped by a poor mental attitude to constructing points outside of hitting the ball harder and harder.
There should be plenty of breaks of serve in this one with both players likely to have their moments, but I will back the American to come through 63, 46, 75.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who has seen this young Italian player on a tennis court will know that Camila Giorgi has a lot of talent that could lead her to the top of the women's game if it is handled correctly.
One issue is the stories that have accompanied Giorgi's rise on the Tour that came to a head earlier in the season and that has stunted her growth as far as I am concerned.
However, she should still have plenty in the locker to give Alize Cornet some real problems in this First Round match in Strasbourg, especially if their two matches earlier in the season are any indication. Giorgi has the power to really hurt the Frenchwoman's serve and I can see her powering her way to taking at least one of the sets in the match.
Whether Giorgi has enough to see off a hard working Cornet is another matter, especially during the periods when the shots are a little more erratic, but I think the games being given to the Italian could prove too much for Cornet to cover.
MY PICKS: Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanie Voegele @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rome Final: 14-8, + 9.20 Units (44 Units Staked, + 20.91% Yield)
Season 2014: + 31.64 Units (657 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
They have both looked vulnerable at times and I am looking forward to the draw on Friday which will make it clearer as to who is likely to pick up the title in Paris, but the top two players in the World have certainly strengthened their positions at the top of the market for the French Open.
Serena Williams looked much stronger in Rome than when she was forced to withdraw from Madrid and I would expect her to remain a strong favourite to retain her title won at the French Open twelve months ago. If Williams brings her form into Roland Garros, it will be tough to prevent her winning the title, but over the last eighteen months we have seen her have one really poor match in the Grand Slams and suffer some surprising defeats that have prevented her sweeping all titles in front of her.
The absence of Victoria Azarenka hurts the women's draw, but the likes of Maria Sharapova, Na Li and perhaps losing French Open Finalist Sara Errani could have deep runs in the tournament and take advantage of any slip up from Williams.
Rome at least provided an upturn in fortunes for the picks after a pretty terrible time in Madrid and gives some momentum to move into this final week before the French Open. This week can be a dangerous one with most of the biggest names on the Tour having time to recover before the start of the second Grand Slam event of 2014, so there may be a few surprising results. However, most of the players taking part have very small real ambitions at the French Open and will likely put in a good shift to try and win a title.
I might not necessarily make picks for every day this week unless there is something that catches my eye, but hopefully we will see a positive week to take into the French Open whose main draw will be completed on Friday morning.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: It was a strong week for Julien Benneteau who won the tournament in Bordeaux, albeit at the Challenger level, but that may also make him vulnerable early in the event in Nice.
Playing in front of the home support will inspire Benneteau, but he hasn't really performed on the clay courts in the last few seasons and may be a little fatigued from the events of last week. The win also came on the level below the main Tour and I think that is where Carlos Berlocq could take advantage.
The Argentinian has won a clay court title just three weeks ago in Oeiras, and even Berlocq's disappearance over the last two weeks might not be as big a concern in this match. Of the two, Berlocq is much more comfortable on the clay courts and he has won two titles at this level on the surface.
Berlocq might need three sets to come through, but I expect him to do that and cover this handicap.
Stefanie Voegele v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: Neither of these players have had a great season as they come into this match with identical 5-12 record in main Tour matches, although Silvia Soler-Espinosa has won a couple of matches in the qualifiers to boost the confidence.
That at least shows some form compared with what Stefanie Voegele has produced over the last three months, but the Swiss player has dominated the head to head with Soler-Espinosa.
Including in that is a win in Morocco last month, although I would have thought the clay courts would favour Soler-Espinosa more than Voegele. That hasn't been the case and I think Voegele has some sort of match up problem for the Spaniard to deal with and shouldn't be an underdog in this match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Any time Sloane Stephens is playing in a smaller tournament where the attendance may not bring in the grandeur she loves, she can be guilty of perhaps not taking a match as seriously as she should.
Stephens has a ton of talent but her work ethic has to be questioned at times- how can a player that has made Quarter Finals in three of the four Slams yet to have made one Final in any Tour event is beyond me.
It hasn't been a good start to 2014 for a player that seemed to have made her breakthrough last season, but Stephens should have too much for Julia Goerges. This is a player that has struggled in the last couple of years and is now outside of the top 100 and her inconsistency is not helped by a poor mental attitude to constructing points outside of hitting the ball harder and harder.
There should be plenty of breaks of serve in this one with both players likely to have their moments, but I will back the American to come through 63, 46, 75.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who has seen this young Italian player on a tennis court will know that Camila Giorgi has a lot of talent that could lead her to the top of the women's game if it is handled correctly.
One issue is the stories that have accompanied Giorgi's rise on the Tour that came to a head earlier in the season and that has stunted her growth as far as I am concerned.
However, she should still have plenty in the locker to give Alize Cornet some real problems in this First Round match in Strasbourg, especially if their two matches earlier in the season are any indication. Giorgi has the power to really hurt the Frenchwoman's serve and I can see her powering her way to taking at least one of the sets in the match.
Whether Giorgi has enough to see off a hard working Cornet is another matter, especially during the periods when the shots are a little more erratic, but I think the games being given to the Italian could prove too much for Cornet to cover.
MY PICKS: Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanie Voegele @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rome Final: 14-8, + 9.20 Units (44 Units Staked, + 20.91% Yield)
Season 2014: + 31.64 Units (657 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 21st)
There is a lot of rain around in Europe at the moment, particularly in the north of France and Belgium where a couple of the WTA tournaments are being played this week. It could also be a slight problem for the organisers of the French Open as it is expected to rain every day in Paris up until the weekend meaning a lot of the qualifiers for the next Grand Slam could be forced indoors.
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 20 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 20th)
I didn't make too many picks last week as I just felt the tournament in Rome was a little unpredictable... My gut feeling was correct, especially as all five picks failed to come off, and so I was glad to have stepped out for the most part.
It also goes without saying that there is a possibility this will be a quiet week, although I will make picks wherever I see fit. I have added one outright pick for the week which can be found here
Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Both of these players will consider the clay courts as their favourite surface, but I think the younger man can prevail in the contest.
Albert Ramos has certainly shown the more consistency in recent matches compared with Victor Hanescu, although the latter has reached a couple of Quarter Finals in the smaller clay court tournaments himself.
I think both players will feel confident behind their own serve, but I just feel that Ramos is perhaps a little more solid on that front and that can prove to be the difference in the match. While Hanescu certainly can serve effectively, he does tend to throw in at least one poor game per set and this could easily end with a 64 64 win for the Spaniard.
Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: These two young American players will likely be looking forward to the Tour moving away from the clay courts in the next couple of weeks, but for now they have a chance to move through to the Second Round of a clay court tournament.
Of the two, Christina McHale has shown more form on the surface compared with Lauren Davis, particularly when it comes to the main tour level events. That includes reaching the Third Round at the French Open when she beat Davis enroute and I think McHale's experience will likely be the key to her beating her compatriot again.
Like many WTA Tour matches, especially on clay courts, I expect a few breaks of serve but for McHale to have come through with a break more in each set at least.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
It also goes without saying that there is a possibility this will be a quiet week, although I will make picks wherever I see fit. I have added one outright pick for the week which can be found here
Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Both of these players will consider the clay courts as their favourite surface, but I think the younger man can prevail in the contest.
Albert Ramos has certainly shown the more consistency in recent matches compared with Victor Hanescu, although the latter has reached a couple of Quarter Finals in the smaller clay court tournaments himself.
I think both players will feel confident behind their own serve, but I just feel that Ramos is perhaps a little more solid on that front and that can prove to be the difference in the match. While Hanescu certainly can serve effectively, he does tend to throw in at least one poor game per set and this could easily end with a 64 64 win for the Spaniard.
Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: These two young American players will likely be looking forward to the Tour moving away from the clay courts in the next couple of weeks, but for now they have a chance to move through to the Second Round of a clay court tournament.
Of the two, Christina McHale has shown more form on the surface compared with Lauren Davis, particularly when it comes to the main tour level events. That includes reaching the Third Round at the French Open when she beat Davis enroute and I think McHale's experience will likely be the key to her beating her compatriot again.
Like many WTA Tour matches, especially on clay courts, I expect a few breaks of serve but for McHale to have come through with a break more in each set at least.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
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