Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Marin Cilic had to dig down much deeper than he would have imagined to see off young star Andrey Rublev in the Second Round, but the more playing time he gets, the better for the US Open Champion. After a long lay-off through injury, it will take some time for Cilic to get back to his very best, although he is one of the better grass court players in the world and should enjoy the extended season on that surface.
First of all Cilic is trying to get himself into some form to take into the French Open as he looks to make an impact at the second Grand Slam of the season after missing the Australian Open. Cilic's win over Rublev should set him up for a solid week in Geneva ahead of the tournament in Paris, but backing it up won't be easy against Santiago Giraldo.
It has not been the best clay court season for the Colombian, although his two wins in Geneva will have helped Giraldo get back on track. However, he has a bad match up against Cilic whose aggression on return has put the pressure on Giraldo in their four previous matches which have all been won by the Croatian.
There have been signs of Cilic getting back to that aggressive return game which helped him win the US Open last September, but consistency will be an issue for him for a while because of that lay off. However, I think his ability on the court and what he wants to do matches up well with Giraldo and I can see Cilic finding his way into the Semi Final with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Stan Wawrinka hasn't quite made it onto my blacklist despite some poor recent performances of late as he looks to change his form on the court after some off-court issues have been affecting his personal life. Those issues have seen Wawrinka have troubles finding the consistency to string some wins together, but playing back in Switzerland should help as should the fact that he is meeting an opponent who hasn't been pulling up any trees himself.
You have to respect any player that has won back to back matches to reach the Quarter Final, although the level of competition goes up a couple of level for Federico Delbonis in this match. The Argentinian has been a little inconsistent in recent weeks, but he did win a Challenger tournament and Delbonis is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces.
That will make Delbonis a dangerous Quarter Final opponent for the home favourite, but he has struggled at the highest level this season and will offer Wawrinka chances to break serve and come through.
I can see match with breaks both ways on current form, but one that Wawrinka eventually takes control of as he come through 75, 64.
Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Two Argentinian players who are most comfortable on the clay courts meet in a Quarter Final in Nice with the winner in a very strong position to go all the way and win the title. Leonardo Mayer might be the Number 1 Argentinian player on the ATP Tour at this moment in time, but I think Juan Monaco is producing more positive results and can win the battle between them.
I do think Mayer has the stronger serve, but I would favour Monaco to be able to dictate the rallies from the baseline and eventually he should have the chances to break serve and control the match. There are times when Monaco seems to feel the pressure when ahead, which would be a concern against a quality player like Mayer, but the former has been winning more matches of late which should help him through the tough moments.
There will be some long rallies and some gruelling moments for both, while I also expect there to be chances to break serve for both Monaco and Mayer.
However, I think Monaco will eventually find more winning rallies as he breaks down the Mayer game and I think the former can frank the form that saw him beat Mayer in Buenos Aires earlier this season.
Borna Coric - 3.5 games v James Duckworth: There are a couple of really big talents coming through the ranks and one of those is Borna Coric who is looking to reach his first Semi Final since Dubai in February. That isn't to say that Coric hasn't been playing well, but that simply he is like many other young players who struggle for consistency.
This is the kind of tournament where someone like Coric can make hay as many of the top names are already preparing for the French Open and it is no surprise that he is the favourite to see off James Duckworth in this Quarter Final.
It is a surprise to see Duckworth reach the Quarter Final, but he has taken advantage of Gilles Simon's withdrawal at the top of the draw and his two wins this week are not really up to the level of main ATP Tour events. That fortune has helped the Australian and Duckworth has spent the majority of his time playing at Challenger level on the clay courts with his game much more suited to the fast surfaces.
While Duckworth can serve well at times, he is going to have to be very strong from the baseline if he is going to secure the upset. I would give Coric a real edge when it comes to the extended rallies that tend to develop on a clay court and I think the youngster comes through 64, 64 to move into the Semi Final.
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: She might not be at the same level as when she managed to reach World Number 1, but Jelena Jankovic is still capable of very strong showings and I like her chances against Sloane Stephens on a clay court. The biggest question mark about Jankovic is whether she is over the issues that has seen her miss the majority of the clay court season, although her performance in Rome and winning two matches here have erased any doubts.
With the way that Sloane Stephens can play, this is far from an easy match for Jankovic even if I do think the latter is the stronger player on the clay courts.
Jankovic has also found a way to diffuse the Stephens power and extract enough errors to win all three previous matches between these players, although none of those have come on the clay. Stephens has done well to come through her two matches here too, but this is her worst surface and Jankovic is the better mover on it.
That can be a key in the extended rallies as the better mover is more likely to be in a more effective position to turn the tables and I think Jankovic is playing well enough to do that. This might need three sets to separate the two players, but I like Jankovic to find a 76, 46, 63 win to move into the Semi Final.
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Both of these players came through Second Round matches impressively as the underdogs and now have a real chance to pick up some vital Ranking points. Elena Vesnina is Number 95 in the World Rankings and Virginie Razzano is Number 251 which only highlights how important the points they can earn are this week with big names not taking part in the draw.
Vesnina displayed all of her power to knock Alize Cornet off of her game and come through in three sets on Wednesday which means she has now won 4 of her last 5 matches to improve confidence. Virginie Razzano was an impressive winner over Francesca Schiavone, but she has mainly been playing at a lower level to try and rebuild her career and I think that is going to be an issue in this match.
Razzano has really not been competing with so much on the line in recent weeks and I think that can play a part mentally as the Frenchwoman tries to get back up the World Rankings. She has gone through some real hardship off the court which will have made her a stronger character, but Razzano could be pushed back by the power of Vesnina if the latter is on her game.
That power might be enough to help push Vesnina onto the baseline and dictate this match, although she has to avoid the unforced errors that blighted her in the first set against Cornet yesterday. If she can do that, I believe she can get the better of Razzano in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.36 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.22% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Nice Picks. Show all posts
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Thursday, 21 May 2015
Wednesday, 20 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 20th)
Wednesday is a very busy day across the tournaments being played this week with all of them looking to get the results in the bag by Saturday as the French Open will begin on Sunday. That means all the Quarter Finals will be played on Thursday, Semi Finals on Friday and Finals on Saturday which means the tournaments are looking to get on schedule on Wednesday.
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
Tuesday, 19 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 19th)
You have to be careful this week not to fall into a trap of backing a player that might have to head to Paris early for the qualifying ahead of the French Open. It will be less of a concern as the week goes on with the majority of those players likely to be out of events, but it proved to be a real issue on Monday at some of the tournaments being played.
I always wonder why players who know they need to head off early are allowed to be entered into tournaments this week as you know they are going to tank away a match at some point to prepare for that qualification coming up. That just seems really strange to me and something tournaments and the Tour have to work on together to prevent happening too often.
Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It hasn't been the most consistent return to the Tour for Janko Tipsarevic, but that has to be expected for a player that hadn't played a tournament in eighteen months.
Tipsarevic can't look back at his career with disappointment as he really did get the best out of his ability, but he clearly has made a return because he feels there is some unfinished business for him. And you can look at his return with some positives that he has won matches on his return and none of his losses has seen him outplayed to such an extent as to knock his confidence.
If Tipsarevic can bring that confidence to Geneva, I would fancy his chances to beat Denis Istomin who has slipped down the World Rankings and who has been struggling for some time on the court. The clay season has almost gone by with a lot of losses for Istomin, although I do think his game has to be respected as he has plenty of talent at his disposal.
However, Istomin's confidence has to be in a poor place and he is always liable to throw in a terrible service game or two and that might give Tipsarevic the chance to come through with a narrow 75, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He had been awarded a Wild Card into the French Open Qualifiers this year having won the Junior title last season, but Andrey Rublev doesn't seem to have taken that. That is a surprise to me considering how much he has been playing on the main Tour and the young Russian has all the makings of someone who is going to be amongst the next generation at the top of the men's game.
He has already won a fair few First Round matches on the main Tour, including beating Jarkko Nieminen in the First Round here, while Rublev's best win has come against Fernando Verdasco in Barcelona last month.
Rublev has some power off the ground and is growing into his body, but it will be a big ask to beat the reigning US Open Champion even if Marin Cilic has been struggling to get back into the groove since his injury lay off.
Cilic has had some disappointing losses over the last few weeks and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but those have come at a high level for the most part and Rublev will be under pressure by the aggressive return of serve Cilic employs. It won't be easy for Cilic simply as he tries to work out what Rublev is going to bring to the court, but I think Cilic is good enough to still find a way to find a break of serve more in each set and come through 63, 75.
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: He is the kind of character that tennis will love to have amongst their ranks as Nick Kyrgios will likely bring in a lot of attention for casual viewers as long as he continues progressing at his current rate. I am not convinced Kyrgios will ever become a serial winner on the Tour, but his serve will give him a chance for plenty of upset wins as shown already in his young career as he has wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
The clay courts would have been expected to be Kyrgios' worst surface, but he has reached the Final in Estoril and has beaten Federer on it this season. That kind of form gives him a great chance to beat Mikhail Kukushkin who has generally struggled on clay through his career and doesn't have much form coming into this tournament.
There is no doubting the talent that Kukushkin has, but he can be so erratic with his play and can't afford to do that against a player that serves as big as Kyrgios.
As long as Kyrgios remains focused and not look ahead to the French Open, where he will be Seeded, I think the Australian has enough in his game to come through with a 63, 76 win.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: The American players generally are not big fans of the European clay courts and Sam Querrey is no different as he takes in a stop in Nice ahead of the French Open. Querrey has lost early in Madrid and Rome and must be looking forward to the extended grass court season before returning home for the North American hard court swing leading into the US Open.
Those faster surfaces suit Querrey as his serve really can carry him through matches, while his movement is less of an issue with rallies generally being shorter. However, on the clay those issues are exposed and someone like Juan Monaco has all the experience to find the holes in the Querrey game to move into the Quarter Final.
It has been a little bit of a disappointment for Monaco on the clay courts so far as he would have expected to have picked up more wins than he has so far since the Miami Masters when he was a surprise Quarter Finalist on the hard courts. Monaco has been guilty of missing some opportunities as he has struggled to put away opponents when they looked down and out, but he should have the edge in any of the rallies that get into five shots or more territory.
Both were impressive First Round winners, but the extra clay court nous that Monaco has should help him come through with a 64, 64 win as long as Querrey doesn't serve extra-big in this one.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.06 Units (6 Units Staked, + 84.33% Yield)
I always wonder why players who know they need to head off early are allowed to be entered into tournaments this week as you know they are going to tank away a match at some point to prepare for that qualification coming up. That just seems really strange to me and something tournaments and the Tour have to work on together to prevent happening too often.
Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It hasn't been the most consistent return to the Tour for Janko Tipsarevic, but that has to be expected for a player that hadn't played a tournament in eighteen months.
Tipsarevic can't look back at his career with disappointment as he really did get the best out of his ability, but he clearly has made a return because he feels there is some unfinished business for him. And you can look at his return with some positives that he has won matches on his return and none of his losses has seen him outplayed to such an extent as to knock his confidence.
If Tipsarevic can bring that confidence to Geneva, I would fancy his chances to beat Denis Istomin who has slipped down the World Rankings and who has been struggling for some time on the court. The clay season has almost gone by with a lot of losses for Istomin, although I do think his game has to be respected as he has plenty of talent at his disposal.
However, Istomin's confidence has to be in a poor place and he is always liable to throw in a terrible service game or two and that might give Tipsarevic the chance to come through with a narrow 75, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He had been awarded a Wild Card into the French Open Qualifiers this year having won the Junior title last season, but Andrey Rublev doesn't seem to have taken that. That is a surprise to me considering how much he has been playing on the main Tour and the young Russian has all the makings of someone who is going to be amongst the next generation at the top of the men's game.
He has already won a fair few First Round matches on the main Tour, including beating Jarkko Nieminen in the First Round here, while Rublev's best win has come against Fernando Verdasco in Barcelona last month.
Rublev has some power off the ground and is growing into his body, but it will be a big ask to beat the reigning US Open Champion even if Marin Cilic has been struggling to get back into the groove since his injury lay off.
Cilic has had some disappointing losses over the last few weeks and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but those have come at a high level for the most part and Rublev will be under pressure by the aggressive return of serve Cilic employs. It won't be easy for Cilic simply as he tries to work out what Rublev is going to bring to the court, but I think Cilic is good enough to still find a way to find a break of serve more in each set and come through 63, 75.
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: He is the kind of character that tennis will love to have amongst their ranks as Nick Kyrgios will likely bring in a lot of attention for casual viewers as long as he continues progressing at his current rate. I am not convinced Kyrgios will ever become a serial winner on the Tour, but his serve will give him a chance for plenty of upset wins as shown already in his young career as he has wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
The clay courts would have been expected to be Kyrgios' worst surface, but he has reached the Final in Estoril and has beaten Federer on it this season. That kind of form gives him a great chance to beat Mikhail Kukushkin who has generally struggled on clay through his career and doesn't have much form coming into this tournament.
There is no doubting the talent that Kukushkin has, but he can be so erratic with his play and can't afford to do that against a player that serves as big as Kyrgios.
As long as Kyrgios remains focused and not look ahead to the French Open, where he will be Seeded, I think the Australian has enough in his game to come through with a 63, 76 win.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: The American players generally are not big fans of the European clay courts and Sam Querrey is no different as he takes in a stop in Nice ahead of the French Open. Querrey has lost early in Madrid and Rome and must be looking forward to the extended grass court season before returning home for the North American hard court swing leading into the US Open.
Those faster surfaces suit Querrey as his serve really can carry him through matches, while his movement is less of an issue with rallies generally being shorter. However, on the clay those issues are exposed and someone like Juan Monaco has all the experience to find the holes in the Querrey game to move into the Quarter Final.
It has been a little bit of a disappointment for Monaco on the clay courts so far as he would have expected to have picked up more wins than he has so far since the Miami Masters when he was a surprise Quarter Finalist on the hard courts. Monaco has been guilty of missing some opportunities as he has struggled to put away opponents when they looked down and out, but he should have the edge in any of the rallies that get into five shots or more territory.
Both were impressive First Round winners, but the extra clay court nous that Monaco has should help him come through with a 64, 64 win as long as Querrey doesn't serve extra-big in this one.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.06 Units (6 Units Staked, + 84.33% Yield)
Saturday, 24 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 24th)
The French Open draw was made on Friday and I will have a full breakdown of the event before the Grand Slam gets underway on Sunday. For now, I am concentrating on the Finals of this week's tournaments that are to be completed on Saturday and allow the players to make their way to Paris with some momentum behind them.
Of course, the majority of the players left on Saturday won't be expected to have a deep run in Paris over the next two weeks, but the added confidence they have earned this week may make them surprise packages against the more established names on the Tour.
After the disappointment of Thursday, Friday proved to be a much better day with the luck ending up going with me rather than against me. That was proven by Ivo Karlovic's win in his Semi Final in Dusseldorf despite winning fewer points than Jiri Vesely and also means the week has at least recovered from the terrible Thursday action.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Both players have come through to the Final with little trouble in the Semi Final, but overall you would have to say that Federico Delbonis has had the better week in terms of results and ease of moving through the draw.
That won't matter to Ernests Gulbis who will look to keep the pressure on his opponent with a big serve that can produce a lot of easy points. The easy power that the Latvian can generate off the ground should also give Delbonis plenty to think about, although you have to credit the young Argentine for reaching another Tour Final on the clay courts.
The lefty serve will cause some problems for Gulbis, particularly early in the match, but I think the latter will still get involved in more service games and eventually that pressure will help him breakthrough.
At the end of the match, I would be expecting Gulbis to be lifting the title after a 64, 64 win.
Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: I have a lot of respect for what Silvia Soler-Espinosa has done this week considering she had to come through the qualifiers before heading all the way to the Final in Strasbourg, but her run should come to an end at the hands of Monica Puig.
The hard hitting South American is very comfortable on the clay courts and she has been very impressive all week and I think Puig has the confidence and ability to finish it off in the right manner and pick up the title.
I expect Puig's power to be one of the key differences between the two players and I also think three consecutive matches that have needed three sets to be completed may end up taking the toll on Soler-Espinosa. That is more fatiguing when considering matches have been played without rest for three or four days and it has already been a long week for the Spaniard.
There should be some breaks of serve, but I expect Puig to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.50 Units (27 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Of course, the majority of the players left on Saturday won't be expected to have a deep run in Paris over the next two weeks, but the added confidence they have earned this week may make them surprise packages against the more established names on the Tour.
After the disappointment of Thursday, Friday proved to be a much better day with the luck ending up going with me rather than against me. That was proven by Ivo Karlovic's win in his Semi Final in Dusseldorf despite winning fewer points than Jiri Vesely and also means the week has at least recovered from the terrible Thursday action.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Both players have come through to the Final with little trouble in the Semi Final, but overall you would have to say that Federico Delbonis has had the better week in terms of results and ease of moving through the draw.
That won't matter to Ernests Gulbis who will look to keep the pressure on his opponent with a big serve that can produce a lot of easy points. The easy power that the Latvian can generate off the ground should also give Delbonis plenty to think about, although you have to credit the young Argentine for reaching another Tour Final on the clay courts.
The lefty serve will cause some problems for Gulbis, particularly early in the match, but I think the latter will still get involved in more service games and eventually that pressure will help him breakthrough.
At the end of the match, I would be expecting Gulbis to be lifting the title after a 64, 64 win.
Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: I have a lot of respect for what Silvia Soler-Espinosa has done this week considering she had to come through the qualifiers before heading all the way to the Final in Strasbourg, but her run should come to an end at the hands of Monica Puig.
The hard hitting South American is very comfortable on the clay courts and she has been very impressive all week and I think Puig has the confidence and ability to finish it off in the right manner and pick up the title.
I expect Puig's power to be one of the key differences between the two players and I also think three consecutive matches that have needed three sets to be completed may end up taking the toll on Soler-Espinosa. That is more fatiguing when considering matches have been played without rest for three or four days and it has already been a long week for the Spaniard.
There should be some breaks of serve, but I expect Puig to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.50 Units (27 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Friday, 23 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 23rd)
That was pretty much as awful a day as I have had in the whole season with players not getting over the line and winning matches despite taking first sets/serving for the match and it was an extremely disappointing Thursday.
Friday sees the tournaments reach the Semi Finals, but the biggest talking story in tennis will be the draw for the French Open that will take place in the morning before the Grand Slam begins on Sunday. I think the draw is probably as important as it has been at Roland Garros for a decade, especially on the men's side, as the top two players in the world may just be a little vulnerable if they have to go through some big tests to reach the Final.
I will have an outright preview of the French Open out this weekend before the tournament begins once I have had the chance to look through the draw that will be out by lunch time.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Ernests Gulbis has dominated Albert Montanes since being beaten by the Spaniard at the French Open in 2007 and he is much more of a resilient competitor these days. Gulbis highlighted that in his Quarter Final win yesterday when he came from a break down in the final set to beat Dmitry Tursunov in a tie-break.
He seems in a much better place mentally these days and could be the player that de-thrones Montanes as the winner in Nice, even if the veteran showed a real fight to defend his title by coming from a set down to beat Leonardo Mayer on Thursday.
However, Montanes' serve is much more vulnerable against someone like Gulbis who can dominate behind his own serve and create pressure with 'easy' holds. That proved to be the case when these two players met in Barcelona in April on the clay courts and I can see Gulbis proving a little too good again for the veteran.
Gulbis came through a tight first set and then ran away with the match and he may do something similar on Friday.
Ivo Karlovic v Jiri Vesely: There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the favourite surface for Ivo Karlovic, but he has proven this week that he is capable of producing big results on the clay. I think he is being completely under-rated against the talented youngster Jiri Vesely who may struggle mentally with facing a server like Karlovic.
Older heads can stay in the match by accepting their inability to get a racquet on every Karlovic serve effectively, but a younger player may allow it to pressure him mentally and also struggle to cope with that facet of the game. Karlovic also earned a big win over Juan Monaco, a real clay courter, on Thursday so his confidence has to be high.
I don't doubt Jiri Vesely is feeling very good about his own game after dismissing Jurgen Melzer without a breaking a sweat in the Quarter Final. The Czech player is comfortable on the clay courts, but I still don't think he should be such a strong favourite to win this kind of match just yet in his career.
With that in mind, a small interest in Ivo Karlovic to win the match is my call.
Monica Puig v Madison Keys: There is a lot to like about Monica Puig's game from the heavy groundies to the fact that she can protect serve effectively and I think she proves a little too good for Madison Keys in this Semi Final.
Keys certainly has a bright future on the WTA Tour in my opinion, but I think she has yet to gain the consistency that is required to make sure her solid first serve is backed up by a decent second serve.
That is where I think this match will be won- I think Puig is going to win a higher percentage of second serve points and I think she is going to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that looks like giving her the edge in this match where the slightest edge could make the whole difference.
Both players have enjoyed a successful week to this point, but I expect Monica Puig to be playing in the Final on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Monica Puig @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.01% Yield)
Friday sees the tournaments reach the Semi Finals, but the biggest talking story in tennis will be the draw for the French Open that will take place in the morning before the Grand Slam begins on Sunday. I think the draw is probably as important as it has been at Roland Garros for a decade, especially on the men's side, as the top two players in the world may just be a little vulnerable if they have to go through some big tests to reach the Final.
I will have an outright preview of the French Open out this weekend before the tournament begins once I have had the chance to look through the draw that will be out by lunch time.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Ernests Gulbis has dominated Albert Montanes since being beaten by the Spaniard at the French Open in 2007 and he is much more of a resilient competitor these days. Gulbis highlighted that in his Quarter Final win yesterday when he came from a break down in the final set to beat Dmitry Tursunov in a tie-break.
He seems in a much better place mentally these days and could be the player that de-thrones Montanes as the winner in Nice, even if the veteran showed a real fight to defend his title by coming from a set down to beat Leonardo Mayer on Thursday.
However, Montanes' serve is much more vulnerable against someone like Gulbis who can dominate behind his own serve and create pressure with 'easy' holds. That proved to be the case when these two players met in Barcelona in April on the clay courts and I can see Gulbis proving a little too good again for the veteran.
Gulbis came through a tight first set and then ran away with the match and he may do something similar on Friday.
Ivo Karlovic v Jiri Vesely: There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the favourite surface for Ivo Karlovic, but he has proven this week that he is capable of producing big results on the clay. I think he is being completely under-rated against the talented youngster Jiri Vesely who may struggle mentally with facing a server like Karlovic.
Older heads can stay in the match by accepting their inability to get a racquet on every Karlovic serve effectively, but a younger player may allow it to pressure him mentally and also struggle to cope with that facet of the game. Karlovic also earned a big win over Juan Monaco, a real clay courter, on Thursday so his confidence has to be high.
I don't doubt Jiri Vesely is feeling very good about his own game after dismissing Jurgen Melzer without a breaking a sweat in the Quarter Final. The Czech player is comfortable on the clay courts, but I still don't think he should be such a strong favourite to win this kind of match just yet in his career.
With that in mind, a small interest in Ivo Karlovic to win the match is my call.
Monica Puig v Madison Keys: There is a lot to like about Monica Puig's game from the heavy groundies to the fact that she can protect serve effectively and I think she proves a little too good for Madison Keys in this Semi Final.
Keys certainly has a bright future on the WTA Tour in my opinion, but I think she has yet to gain the consistency that is required to make sure her solid first serve is backed up by a decent second serve.
That is where I think this match will be won- I think Puig is going to win a higher percentage of second serve points and I think she is going to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that looks like giving her the edge in this match where the slightest edge could make the whole difference.
Both players have enjoyed a successful week to this point, but I expect Monica Puig to be playing in the Final on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Monica Puig @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.01% Yield)
Thursday, 22 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 22nd)
The French Open draw is now only twenty-four hours away and the tournaments that are being played this week are already at the Quarter Final stage. The tournaments need to be completed by Saturday as the second Grand Slam of the season starts the First Round action on Sunday.
There are a couple of big name players in action this week, but not really anyone that you would consider a contender to win in Roland Garros, so the players should be able to give their all to win a title and perhaps more money than they will in Paris next week.
Leonardo Mayer v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes did win the title in Nice last season so will have a big motivation to defend his title this week, but I think Leonardo Mayer can produce a surprise win in this Quarter Final.
Mayer has plenty of momentum behind him having won five matches in Nice already to get to this stage, although the concern would be all that tennis causing fatigue.
He does have a good record against Montanes and Mayer has a decent clay court pedigree to think he can come through even as the underdog. The Argentinian player has a serve that could set up a few more cheaper points than Montanes and I expect there to be opportunities for both players to take control.
However, I believe Mayer has a little more quality at key moments that helps him through in three sets.
John Isner v Federico Delbonis: On a clay court, someone like Federico Delbonis will certainly feel they have a better chance in taking on John Isner and the huge serve he possesses, but the American has always said he feels comfortable on the slower surfaces.
Isner explains that his serve doesn't lose as much bite as the hard courts, while he can set up his groundstrokes a little better on the slower surface and he certainly feels he has a chance to perform on the clay courts.
He has big wins on the surface in the past having beaten Roger Federer, while also pushing Rafael Nadal to five sets in the French Open. I expect the serve to put a lot of mental pressure on Federico Delbonis whose own game is a little inconsistent and makes his serve vulnerable to being broken.
Delbonis will feel he has a real chance considering some of the losses that Isner has suffered during the clay court swing, but I would be worried about what decent servers like Ivan Dodig and Feliciano Lopez have done against the Argentinian too. I just feel he won't cope with the mental burden of keeping ahead of/up with Isner and I like the American to win a place in the Semi Final.
Carlos Berlocq v Gilles Simon: I was surprised that Gilles Simon is being set as the favourite to win this Quarter Final and have a feeling his performance against Rafael Nadal in Rome may be keeping his price artificially high.
He has been beaten in three of the last four matches against Carlos Berlocq, all on the clay courts, and I do believe the latter has a better clay court pedigree having won two titles on the surface over the last twelve months.
There should be a lot of extended rallies in the match as both players can get a lot of balls back in play, but I do think Berlocq has wrongly been set as the underdog and can eventually force enough mistakes from Simon.
Don't be surprised if there are a number of breaks of serve before it is all said and done, but Berlocq to move through is my pick from this Quarter Final.
Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games v Karin Knapp: This week has already been a productive one for Karin Knapp who snapped a long losing run on the Tour, but she may have to settle for reaching this stage of the tournament. That is because she is playing one of the form players in Caroline Garcia who is finally showing the form that had seen Andy Murray tip her as a future World Number 1 in the women's game.
There is a chance that Garcia is looking ahead to the French Open and a chance to play in front of her home support, but I think she will want to maintain the momentum that has seen her go 13-1 in her last fourteen matches.
That includes winning a title in Bogota on the clay courts and she will feel confident she can beat Knapp who had lost eight in a row prior to this week. Knapp has some easy power that will allow her to dominate some points of the match, but she can be frustrated by Garcia's defensive skills.
The Frenchwoman also has some easy power of her own and I think she will prove too much for Knapp and move through to the Semi Final.
Eugenie Bouchard - 4.5 games v Yaroslava Shvedova: Eugenie Bouchard has won her first two matches this week without breaking a sweat and while I think this one will be more difficult, I also think the Canadian comes through fairly comfortably.
Bouchard did beat Yaroslava Shvedova last month on the clay courts in a match where she took her chances and served better than her opponent.
That will be the key to this match as Bouchard should earn the easier points if she gets a decent amount of first serves into the match and that should also give her a chance to fend off more break points than her opponent.
The extra power that Bouchard has on her side of the court could prove to be the difference in a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
John Isner @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.60 Units (12 Units Staked, + 30% Yield)
There are a couple of big name players in action this week, but not really anyone that you would consider a contender to win in Roland Garros, so the players should be able to give their all to win a title and perhaps more money than they will in Paris next week.
Leonardo Mayer v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes did win the title in Nice last season so will have a big motivation to defend his title this week, but I think Leonardo Mayer can produce a surprise win in this Quarter Final.
Mayer has plenty of momentum behind him having won five matches in Nice already to get to this stage, although the concern would be all that tennis causing fatigue.
He does have a good record against Montanes and Mayer has a decent clay court pedigree to think he can come through even as the underdog. The Argentinian player has a serve that could set up a few more cheaper points than Montanes and I expect there to be opportunities for both players to take control.
However, I believe Mayer has a little more quality at key moments that helps him through in three sets.
John Isner v Federico Delbonis: On a clay court, someone like Federico Delbonis will certainly feel they have a better chance in taking on John Isner and the huge serve he possesses, but the American has always said he feels comfortable on the slower surfaces.
Isner explains that his serve doesn't lose as much bite as the hard courts, while he can set up his groundstrokes a little better on the slower surface and he certainly feels he has a chance to perform on the clay courts.
He has big wins on the surface in the past having beaten Roger Federer, while also pushing Rafael Nadal to five sets in the French Open. I expect the serve to put a lot of mental pressure on Federico Delbonis whose own game is a little inconsistent and makes his serve vulnerable to being broken.
Delbonis will feel he has a real chance considering some of the losses that Isner has suffered during the clay court swing, but I would be worried about what decent servers like Ivan Dodig and Feliciano Lopez have done against the Argentinian too. I just feel he won't cope with the mental burden of keeping ahead of/up with Isner and I like the American to win a place in the Semi Final.
Carlos Berlocq v Gilles Simon: I was surprised that Gilles Simon is being set as the favourite to win this Quarter Final and have a feeling his performance against Rafael Nadal in Rome may be keeping his price artificially high.
He has been beaten in three of the last four matches against Carlos Berlocq, all on the clay courts, and I do believe the latter has a better clay court pedigree having won two titles on the surface over the last twelve months.
There should be a lot of extended rallies in the match as both players can get a lot of balls back in play, but I do think Berlocq has wrongly been set as the underdog and can eventually force enough mistakes from Simon.
Don't be surprised if there are a number of breaks of serve before it is all said and done, but Berlocq to move through is my pick from this Quarter Final.
Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games v Karin Knapp: This week has already been a productive one for Karin Knapp who snapped a long losing run on the Tour, but she may have to settle for reaching this stage of the tournament. That is because she is playing one of the form players in Caroline Garcia who is finally showing the form that had seen Andy Murray tip her as a future World Number 1 in the women's game.
There is a chance that Garcia is looking ahead to the French Open and a chance to play in front of her home support, but I think she will want to maintain the momentum that has seen her go 13-1 in her last fourteen matches.
That includes winning a title in Bogota on the clay courts and she will feel confident she can beat Knapp who had lost eight in a row prior to this week. Knapp has some easy power that will allow her to dominate some points of the match, but she can be frustrated by Garcia's defensive skills.
The Frenchwoman also has some easy power of her own and I think she will prove too much for Knapp and move through to the Semi Final.
Eugenie Bouchard - 4.5 games v Yaroslava Shvedova: Eugenie Bouchard has won her first two matches this week without breaking a sweat and while I think this one will be more difficult, I also think the Canadian comes through fairly comfortably.
Bouchard did beat Yaroslava Shvedova last month on the clay courts in a match where she took her chances and served better than her opponent.
That will be the key to this match as Bouchard should earn the easier points if she gets a decent amount of first serves into the match and that should also give her a chance to fend off more break points than her opponent.
The extra power that Bouchard has on her side of the court could prove to be the difference in a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
John Isner @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.60 Units (12 Units Staked, + 30% Yield)
Wednesday, 21 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 21st)
The tournaments before the French Open will be continuing on Wednesday as Second Round action commences. The Tuesday picks produced a 2-2 record, while I have only found two matches of interest through the day with thoughts already turning to Paris.
Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 games v Robin Haase: It hasn't been a good clay court season for Dmitry Tursunov with some really poor results on the surface, but one of the successes he had came against Robin Haase in Monte Carlo.
The Dutchman also has had a pretty poor six weeks on the clay courts, although he did reach a Semi Final in Bucharest and that will have sapped some confidence for Haase who relies on mentally being in a strong place to win matches.
Tursunov's serve may keep Haase on his toes in this one and I think the heavy shots off the ground could give him the edge in this match. It was the first serve that gave Tursunov a platform to build upon in Monte Carlo and if he serves at a high clip in this Second Round, I would expect him to come through.
Either way, I am struggling to understand why Tursunov is the underdog in this match by a considerable margin and I will take the games he is being given.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: Martin Klizan must feel in a great place having won nine matches in a row which saw him take the title in Munich after qualifying for that event. He had some big wins over the likes of Tommy Haas and Fabio Fognini in that tournament and is obviously in a good place, but Ernests Gulbis should pose plenty of problems for him.
It has taken some top players to prevent Gulbis from really going deep into a tournament the last month, but the Latvian is playing some of the most consistent tennis of his career.
Gulbis has a decent serve and a heavy weight of shot off the ground and I expect that will trouble Klizan, although the latter has a lefty serve that will cause its own problems.
A tight first set may end in a tie-breaker, but I expect Gulbis to then pull away and win this match 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 games v Robin Haase: It hasn't been a good clay court season for Dmitry Tursunov with some really poor results on the surface, but one of the successes he had came against Robin Haase in Monte Carlo.
The Dutchman also has had a pretty poor six weeks on the clay courts, although he did reach a Semi Final in Bucharest and that will have sapped some confidence for Haase who relies on mentally being in a strong place to win matches.
Tursunov's serve may keep Haase on his toes in this one and I think the heavy shots off the ground could give him the edge in this match. It was the first serve that gave Tursunov a platform to build upon in Monte Carlo and if he serves at a high clip in this Second Round, I would expect him to come through.
Either way, I am struggling to understand why Tursunov is the underdog in this match by a considerable margin and I will take the games he is being given.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: Martin Klizan must feel in a great place having won nine matches in a row which saw him take the title in Munich after qualifying for that event. He had some big wins over the likes of Tommy Haas and Fabio Fognini in that tournament and is obviously in a good place, but Ernests Gulbis should pose plenty of problems for him.
It has taken some top players to prevent Gulbis from really going deep into a tournament the last month, but the Latvian is playing some of the most consistent tennis of his career.
Gulbis has a decent serve and a heavy weight of shot off the ground and I expect that will trouble Klizan, although the latter has a lefty serve that will cause its own problems.
A tight first set may end in a tie-breaker, but I expect Gulbis to then pull away and win this match 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Monday, 19 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 20th)
Two Masters tournaments have come and gone on the clay courts and that has left Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as the clear favourites to win in Roland Garros which begins at the end of this week.
They have both looked vulnerable at times and I am looking forward to the draw on Friday which will make it clearer as to who is likely to pick up the title in Paris, but the top two players in the World have certainly strengthened their positions at the top of the market for the French Open.
Serena Williams looked much stronger in Rome than when she was forced to withdraw from Madrid and I would expect her to remain a strong favourite to retain her title won at the French Open twelve months ago. If Williams brings her form into Roland Garros, it will be tough to prevent her winning the title, but over the last eighteen months we have seen her have one really poor match in the Grand Slams and suffer some surprising defeats that have prevented her sweeping all titles in front of her.
The absence of Victoria Azarenka hurts the women's draw, but the likes of Maria Sharapova, Na Li and perhaps losing French Open Finalist Sara Errani could have deep runs in the tournament and take advantage of any slip up from Williams.
Rome at least provided an upturn in fortunes for the picks after a pretty terrible time in Madrid and gives some momentum to move into this final week before the French Open. This week can be a dangerous one with most of the biggest names on the Tour having time to recover before the start of the second Grand Slam event of 2014, so there may be a few surprising results. However, most of the players taking part have very small real ambitions at the French Open and will likely put in a good shift to try and win a title.
I might not necessarily make picks for every day this week unless there is something that catches my eye, but hopefully we will see a positive week to take into the French Open whose main draw will be completed on Friday morning.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: It was a strong week for Julien Benneteau who won the tournament in Bordeaux, albeit at the Challenger level, but that may also make him vulnerable early in the event in Nice.
Playing in front of the home support will inspire Benneteau, but he hasn't really performed on the clay courts in the last few seasons and may be a little fatigued from the events of last week. The win also came on the level below the main Tour and I think that is where Carlos Berlocq could take advantage.
The Argentinian has won a clay court title just three weeks ago in Oeiras, and even Berlocq's disappearance over the last two weeks might not be as big a concern in this match. Of the two, Berlocq is much more comfortable on the clay courts and he has won two titles at this level on the surface.
Berlocq might need three sets to come through, but I expect him to do that and cover this handicap.
Stefanie Voegele v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: Neither of these players have had a great season as they come into this match with identical 5-12 record in main Tour matches, although Silvia Soler-Espinosa has won a couple of matches in the qualifiers to boost the confidence.
That at least shows some form compared with what Stefanie Voegele has produced over the last three months, but the Swiss player has dominated the head to head with Soler-Espinosa.
Including in that is a win in Morocco last month, although I would have thought the clay courts would favour Soler-Espinosa more than Voegele. That hasn't been the case and I think Voegele has some sort of match up problem for the Spaniard to deal with and shouldn't be an underdog in this match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Any time Sloane Stephens is playing in a smaller tournament where the attendance may not bring in the grandeur she loves, she can be guilty of perhaps not taking a match as seriously as she should.
Stephens has a ton of talent but her work ethic has to be questioned at times- how can a player that has made Quarter Finals in three of the four Slams yet to have made one Final in any Tour event is beyond me.
It hasn't been a good start to 2014 for a player that seemed to have made her breakthrough last season, but Stephens should have too much for Julia Goerges. This is a player that has struggled in the last couple of years and is now outside of the top 100 and her inconsistency is not helped by a poor mental attitude to constructing points outside of hitting the ball harder and harder.
There should be plenty of breaks of serve in this one with both players likely to have their moments, but I will back the American to come through 63, 46, 75.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who has seen this young Italian player on a tennis court will know that Camila Giorgi has a lot of talent that could lead her to the top of the women's game if it is handled correctly.
One issue is the stories that have accompanied Giorgi's rise on the Tour that came to a head earlier in the season and that has stunted her growth as far as I am concerned.
However, she should still have plenty in the locker to give Alize Cornet some real problems in this First Round match in Strasbourg, especially if their two matches earlier in the season are any indication. Giorgi has the power to really hurt the Frenchwoman's serve and I can see her powering her way to taking at least one of the sets in the match.
Whether Giorgi has enough to see off a hard working Cornet is another matter, especially during the periods when the shots are a little more erratic, but I think the games being given to the Italian could prove too much for Cornet to cover.
MY PICKS: Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanie Voegele @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rome Final: 14-8, + 9.20 Units (44 Units Staked, + 20.91% Yield)
Season 2014: + 31.64 Units (657 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
They have both looked vulnerable at times and I am looking forward to the draw on Friday which will make it clearer as to who is likely to pick up the title in Paris, but the top two players in the World have certainly strengthened their positions at the top of the market for the French Open.
Serena Williams looked much stronger in Rome than when she was forced to withdraw from Madrid and I would expect her to remain a strong favourite to retain her title won at the French Open twelve months ago. If Williams brings her form into Roland Garros, it will be tough to prevent her winning the title, but over the last eighteen months we have seen her have one really poor match in the Grand Slams and suffer some surprising defeats that have prevented her sweeping all titles in front of her.
The absence of Victoria Azarenka hurts the women's draw, but the likes of Maria Sharapova, Na Li and perhaps losing French Open Finalist Sara Errani could have deep runs in the tournament and take advantage of any slip up from Williams.
Rome at least provided an upturn in fortunes for the picks after a pretty terrible time in Madrid and gives some momentum to move into this final week before the French Open. This week can be a dangerous one with most of the biggest names on the Tour having time to recover before the start of the second Grand Slam event of 2014, so there may be a few surprising results. However, most of the players taking part have very small real ambitions at the French Open and will likely put in a good shift to try and win a title.
I might not necessarily make picks for every day this week unless there is something that catches my eye, but hopefully we will see a positive week to take into the French Open whose main draw will be completed on Friday morning.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: It was a strong week for Julien Benneteau who won the tournament in Bordeaux, albeit at the Challenger level, but that may also make him vulnerable early in the event in Nice.
Playing in front of the home support will inspire Benneteau, but he hasn't really performed on the clay courts in the last few seasons and may be a little fatigued from the events of last week. The win also came on the level below the main Tour and I think that is where Carlos Berlocq could take advantage.
The Argentinian has won a clay court title just three weeks ago in Oeiras, and even Berlocq's disappearance over the last two weeks might not be as big a concern in this match. Of the two, Berlocq is much more comfortable on the clay courts and he has won two titles at this level on the surface.
Berlocq might need three sets to come through, but I expect him to do that and cover this handicap.
Stefanie Voegele v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: Neither of these players have had a great season as they come into this match with identical 5-12 record in main Tour matches, although Silvia Soler-Espinosa has won a couple of matches in the qualifiers to boost the confidence.
That at least shows some form compared with what Stefanie Voegele has produced over the last three months, but the Swiss player has dominated the head to head with Soler-Espinosa.
Including in that is a win in Morocco last month, although I would have thought the clay courts would favour Soler-Espinosa more than Voegele. That hasn't been the case and I think Voegele has some sort of match up problem for the Spaniard to deal with and shouldn't be an underdog in this match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Any time Sloane Stephens is playing in a smaller tournament where the attendance may not bring in the grandeur she loves, she can be guilty of perhaps not taking a match as seriously as she should.
Stephens has a ton of talent but her work ethic has to be questioned at times- how can a player that has made Quarter Finals in three of the four Slams yet to have made one Final in any Tour event is beyond me.
It hasn't been a good start to 2014 for a player that seemed to have made her breakthrough last season, but Stephens should have too much for Julia Goerges. This is a player that has struggled in the last couple of years and is now outside of the top 100 and her inconsistency is not helped by a poor mental attitude to constructing points outside of hitting the ball harder and harder.
There should be plenty of breaks of serve in this one with both players likely to have their moments, but I will back the American to come through 63, 46, 75.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who has seen this young Italian player on a tennis court will know that Camila Giorgi has a lot of talent that could lead her to the top of the women's game if it is handled correctly.
One issue is the stories that have accompanied Giorgi's rise on the Tour that came to a head earlier in the season and that has stunted her growth as far as I am concerned.
However, she should still have plenty in the locker to give Alize Cornet some real problems in this First Round match in Strasbourg, especially if their two matches earlier in the season are any indication. Giorgi has the power to really hurt the Frenchwoman's serve and I can see her powering her way to taking at least one of the sets in the match.
Whether Giorgi has enough to see off a hard working Cornet is another matter, especially during the periods when the shots are a little more erratic, but I think the games being given to the Italian could prove too much for Cornet to cover.
MY PICKS: Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanie Voegele @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rome Final: 14-8, + 9.20 Units (44 Units Staked, + 20.91% Yield)
Season 2014: + 31.64 Units (657 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 21st)
There is a lot of rain around in Europe at the moment, particularly in the north of France and Belgium where a couple of the WTA tournaments are being played this week. It could also be a slight problem for the organisers of the French Open as it is expected to rain every day in Paris up until the weekend meaning a lot of the qualifiers for the next Grand Slam could be forced indoors.
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 20 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 20th)
I didn't make too many picks last week as I just felt the tournament in Rome was a little unpredictable... My gut feeling was correct, especially as all five picks failed to come off, and so I was glad to have stepped out for the most part.
It also goes without saying that there is a possibility this will be a quiet week, although I will make picks wherever I see fit. I have added one outright pick for the week which can be found here
Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Both of these players will consider the clay courts as their favourite surface, but I think the younger man can prevail in the contest.
Albert Ramos has certainly shown the more consistency in recent matches compared with Victor Hanescu, although the latter has reached a couple of Quarter Finals in the smaller clay court tournaments himself.
I think both players will feel confident behind their own serve, but I just feel that Ramos is perhaps a little more solid on that front and that can prove to be the difference in the match. While Hanescu certainly can serve effectively, he does tend to throw in at least one poor game per set and this could easily end with a 64 64 win for the Spaniard.
Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: These two young American players will likely be looking forward to the Tour moving away from the clay courts in the next couple of weeks, but for now they have a chance to move through to the Second Round of a clay court tournament.
Of the two, Christina McHale has shown more form on the surface compared with Lauren Davis, particularly when it comes to the main tour level events. That includes reaching the Third Round at the French Open when she beat Davis enroute and I think McHale's experience will likely be the key to her beating her compatriot again.
Like many WTA Tour matches, especially on clay courts, I expect a few breaks of serve but for McHale to have come through with a break more in each set at least.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
It also goes without saying that there is a possibility this will be a quiet week, although I will make picks wherever I see fit. I have added one outright pick for the week which can be found here
Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Both of these players will consider the clay courts as their favourite surface, but I think the younger man can prevail in the contest.
Albert Ramos has certainly shown the more consistency in recent matches compared with Victor Hanescu, although the latter has reached a couple of Quarter Finals in the smaller clay court tournaments himself.
I think both players will feel confident behind their own serve, but I just feel that Ramos is perhaps a little more solid on that front and that can prove to be the difference in the match. While Hanescu certainly can serve effectively, he does tend to throw in at least one poor game per set and this could easily end with a 64 64 win for the Spaniard.
Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: These two young American players will likely be looking forward to the Tour moving away from the clay courts in the next couple of weeks, but for now they have a chance to move through to the Second Round of a clay court tournament.
Of the two, Christina McHale has shown more form on the surface compared with Lauren Davis, particularly when it comes to the main tour level events. That includes reaching the Third Round at the French Open when she beat Davis enroute and I think McHale's experience will likely be the key to her beating her compatriot again.
Like many WTA Tour matches, especially on clay courts, I expect a few breaks of serve but for McHale to have come through with a break more in each set at least.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
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