Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (May 18-19)

The short turnaround from GameWeek 36 to GameWeek 37 is a difficult one for players, but I expect the home teams to be given a huge boost from the returning fans.

You can read my thoughts on the fixtures to be played over the next two days as well as my Fantasy plans for this GameWeek having been hit with another injury.

Manchester United v Fulham Pick: The Premier League is winding down over the next few days and this is the last home game Manchester United will be playing this season.

Like the rest of the clubs in the Division, the final home game will be played in front of the supporters who have been locked out of their grounds since March 2019 and there sounds like being around 10,000 Manchester United fans at Old Trafford on Tuesday.

Unlike other clubs, those fans might be ready to remind the owners of their disgust at their stewardship, but I also think they will get behind the players who are looking to end this campaign with silverware. Manchester United have lost back to back games at Old Trafford, but they will be looking for some momentum to take them towards the Europa League Final and this looks a very good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

I expect Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to pick a strong line up in a bid to get back to winning ways, and he might not have been able to select a much better opponent.

Fulham have gone down with a whimper and the team are really struggling to be competitive at both ends of the field. They are allowing big chances and not creating as much as they were a few weeks ago and it is no surprise that recent defeats have come in comfortable fashion on the scoreboard.

The latest was the 3-1 defeat at Southampton and I do think the Fulham squad are perhaps not very focused at the moment. Many of them will be returning to their parent clubs having been on loan at Fulham and that means there is some uncertainty about their futures, a distraction that could see Fulham struggle in their remaining two fixtures.

Defeats in 7 of their last 8 Premier League games and in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games is a huge blow for Fulham's confidence. They have a really poor record at Old Trafford and I think the push from the supporters will see Manchester United come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day.

Manchester United had won 5 in a row at home before the back to back losses to Champions League chasing Leicester City and Liverpool, but Fulham are not of that quality. The home team should have the attacking players to break down the Fulham defences and I think it will result in a win by a couple of goals on the day.

Southampton v Leeds United Pick: Both Southampton and Leeds United might still be chasing spots above them in the Premier League table, but in the main these two clubs have nothing to lose when they face each other on Tuesday afternoon.

That can only be good news for the neutrals with two managers who like to see their teams get forward and cause problems for opponents in the home and away dugout. Both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Marcelo Bielsa like to see their teams press the opponent into mistakes, but also get forward in numbers and I think Southampton and Leeds United could produce some fireworks for the home fans who are finally back at St Mary's.

There are some quality attacking players on the field playing in both home and away colours and an early goal would really spark the fixture.

Goals have been flowing in recent Southampton and Leeds United games and you would think an early goal would really open this entire fixture up. The two teams are scoring plenty, but they are looking far from watertight at the back which makes picking a winner a little more difficult, although everything is pointing to this being one of those high-scoring end of season games.

When Leeds United hosted Southampton, three goals were shared out.

In each of their last 2 Premier League fixtures coming into this one, there has been four goals shared out in those and the chances are that this fixture leans towards that mark again. Neither team is likely going to sit on a lead unless we are down to the final minutes and that attacking enterprise should see a few goals shared out on the day.

Brighton v Manchester City Pick: This should be a decent game of football with the styles that both Graham Potter and Pep Guardiola implement on their teams.

When Manchester City and Brighton met earlier this season, Guardiola was very complimentary with the performance of the latter although his Manchester City team continue to get the better of Brighton.

Manchester City have won all 7 Premier League games and also a FA Cup Semi Final against Brighton since the latter returned to the top flight. The 1-0 win earlier this season was closer than expected, but Manchester City have won 1-4 and 0-5 in their last two visits to the Amex Stadium and injuries in the home camp certainly make them vulnerable.

Brighton did dig in and earn a result against West Ham United, but Manchester City showed against Newcastle United that standards have not slipped despite winning the Premier League title. That was a much changed Manchester City team, but I would expect the manager to pick stronger elevens in the final two Premier League games to make sure key players are well prepared for the Champions League Final.

Both Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez look to be influential figures for Manchester City in the Champions League Final but have played very few minutes in the last couple of Premier League games. That rest should mean they are available for selection and ready to go in the final two Premier League games and I expect Manchester City to have a bit too much for a Brighton team who have just slowed down in the underlying numbers in recent games.

Brighton are unbeaten in 4 at home which makes them a confident team, but they were a little fortunate to hold West Ham United on Saturday.

Now they face a Manchester City team who have won 12 in a row away from home in the Premier League and I do think the visitors will have a bit too much for them here. Chances should be created by the Champions and I think their performances in visits to the Amex Stadium suggests they will be able to win this game by a couple of goals on the day.

Chelsea v Leicester City Pick: The FA Cup Final has been won by Leicester City and they should have a big mental edge going into this pivotal top four clash at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.

Brendan Rodgers will know he is still going to be judged on whether or not his Leicester City can avoid another late collapse to fall out of the top four places and this is a big game for them. The results over the last eight days have given Leicester City control of one of the top four positions, but a defeat would leave them vulnerable and they are likely going to be without Jonny Evans.

The leadership will be missed, but Leicester City will feel they were able to defend against Chelsea with a lot of success on Saturday even after Evans was forced off. That will be encouraging, although Leicester City will want to pose more of an attacking threat having scored a special goal to win the Cup Final but not really creating a lot else.

Thomas Tuchel's team are under pressure after back to back 0-1 defeats with the lack of consistency in the final third hurting Chelsea. They play a lot of good football, but the final pass or finish has let them down and anything less than a win on Tuesday will give Leicester City and Liverpool the advantage in the race for a top four finish.

Pressure has only increased after losing the FA Cup Final, but Chelsea will feel they have been defending well enough to at least contain Leicester City in this one.

The Cup Final was a tight, competitive contest and I can only see this Premier League game following suit. Chelsea had the better of the chances on Saturday and I would not be surprised if they did win this one, but Leicester City can dig in and try and counter their hosts which will suit their game.

An early goal could spark the game, but Chelsea games have been tight in recent weeks and the margins are very fine in their performances. I expect the manager to still want his team to be largely secure defensively and hope for something to break in the final third, but Leicester City can keep this one close and then look to exploit spaces if Chelsea get desperate.

Goals might end up being at a premium on Tuesday evening and I think another tight final scoreline will be in the offing.

Everton v Wolves Pick: Two out of form teams meet on Wednesday in the Premier League and ambitions for both Everton and Wolves have not been met so far this season.

Ultimately it is too late for Wolves who are set for a bottom half finish as injuries have hurt what has been small squad in recent seasons. That was always the worry for Wolves and this summer the transfer window is going to be important to strengthen in order to perform much higher up the standings next time around.

There is still the faintest of hopes for Everton to earn a top seven finish and a return to European Football, but the 0-1 defeat to Sheffield United has likely ended those barring upsets and other results going their way. At this point the sole focus has to be on winning this Premier League game, but it is very difficult to trust Everton considering their lack of goals and performances at Goodison Park.

However, there is the boost of playing this fixture in front of supporters and that may just push Everton to ending their run without a victory here. They are also facing a Wolves team who are struggling for consistency and who have had a hard time scoring goals without Raul Jimenez.

Pace in the final third makes Wolves potentially dangerous, but Everton should be able to create chances in this game. They have not capitalised on those in recent games, and the first goal is going to be critical in this one between two out of form and unconfident teams.

Everton should have the slightly superior attacking options though and I think they may just edge this. They are not easy to trust considering form at home, but the supporters can push Everton over the line in this one and I think they can earn the three points.

Newcastle United v Sheffield United Pick: You would be foolish to ignore Sheffield United’s win at Everton on Sunday, but the underlying numbers suggest this team have been out of their League this season and on another day they would not have secured a positive result.

The squad are trying and they are playing with relative ease, but Sheffield United were fortunate that Everton made some big mistakes which ultimately cost them at both ends of the field.

They may have the same outcome on Wednesday when travelling to Newcastle United, but the home team have been playing with real attacking intent and have been creating and scoring chances. Losing Callum Wilson is a blow for Steve Bruce and his team, but Newcastle United have been scoring goals and that makes them very dangerous.

It is a significant edge over Sheffield United who simply don’t offer the same attacking threat on a consistent basis and I think that is going to be the key difference here.

A place in the Premier League has been secured so the Newcastle United fans should be fully behind their players without putting them under undue pressure and that is key for the home team.

Winning has not been easy for Newcastle United all season, but they do score goals and that is likely going to help them secure the points here against a goal-shy Sheffield United team. At St James’ Park in particular Newcastle United have got forward and scored goals and I think they will secure a narrow victory on Wednesday.

Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for clubs in England, but playing in any kind of European competition is important for Tottenham Hotspur with the extra revenue generated for the club not to be ignored.

The new format of the competition may also make life a little easier for those clubs involved in the Europa League and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for two wins this week to confirm their top six finish in the Premier League.

This does look the 'easier' of the two fixtures left as Tottenham Hotspur complete their home schedule with fans back in the stands. The side have won 6 of their last 7 at home in the Premier League which includes all 3 games played here under Ryan Mason and the manager has tended to pick attacking teams to get Spurs on the front foot.

Aston Villa's poor second half of the season has seen them struggle having overperformed the numbers earlier this campaign. They have returned closer to the mean over the last couple of months, although losing Jack Grealish to injury was a severe blow for the team.

Jack Grealish may start this game which will give Aston Villa more of a threat going forward and especially against a vulnerable Tottenham Hotspur defence. However, Spurs will definitely feel confident in breaking down the Aston Villa defence which has given up some big chances in recent matches and who have lost 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games.

The visitors are conceding too many goals of late and Tottenham Hotspur have the attacking talent to hurt them. Spurs have won their last couple of games at home with comfortable scores and they have been creating enough chances to believe they can win this one with some relative comfort too.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: In general terms this looks like a London derby with very little on the line for both Crystal Palace and Arsenal, although the latter will be looking to keep the pressure on those teams in the European places and at least have a chance of a top seven finish on the final day of the season.

Some of that is out of their hands, but Arsenal have won their last 3 away Premier League games without conceding a goal and will believe they can earn a victory here and then hope Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United slip up.

Crystal Palace have secured Premier League Football and they are not able to finish in the top half, but motivation for the players will be playing in front of supporters. The fans have been missed at Selhurst Park, while another motivation is giving Roy Hodgson the send off he deserves after the manager announced he will be leaving Crystal Palace at the end of the season.

On Sunday the players showed they are willing to fight for their manager even with very little to play for and they came from behind to beat Aston Villa 3-2. In their last few Premier League games, Crystal Palace have been playing with attacking freedom and creating chances and they have given Arsenal plenty to think about in recent matches between the clubs.

Arsenal have been finishing the Premier League season with momentum which makes them dangerous, but they were a touch fortunate to secure a 0-1 win at Chelsea last week. The team are well rested which makes life more difficult for Crystal Palace, but I think the motivation to perform for their retiring manager will see The Eagles put up plenty of fight and I would be surprised if they are seen off easily on their current form.

Burnley v Liverpool Pick: You do have to wonder if fate is on Liverpool's side having scored a late winner at West Brom and through the goalkeeper no less.

That victory means Liverpool are favourites to finish in the top four positions in the Premier League, but Jurgen Klopp will be looking for a little more composure when it comes to the final third. His team created enough chances to win at The Hawthorns without the need for an injury time strike, but Liverpool need to be more clinical in the final third.

They could be facing the right opponent on Wednesday as they take on a Burnley team that have conceded eight goals in their last 3 at Turf Moor. The latest result on this ground saw Burnley beaten 0-4 by Leeds United this past Saturday, although Sean Dyche will feel his team did enough in the final third to have scored on the day and at least put some pressure on their visitors.

Burnley have posed an attacking threat and will feel this Liverpool defence is plenty vulnerable to their front two. It will give Burnley a chance of an upset and the fans will also be in the Stadium to give the players another boost, but Burnley have struggled when hosting Liverpool who have plenty of attacking threats of their own.

In recent games Burnley have struggled defensively and could be without Nick Pope again which is a huge blow for them.

I do think Burnley will cause problems for Liverpool, but the visitors are creating plenty of chances and a little more composure could lead to a comfortable win on the day. Liverpool have won 1-3 and 0-3 in their last couple of visits to Turf Moor and I think they are likely going to match those margins in this fixture as they look to move into the top four before the final fixture to be played this Sunday.

West Brom v West Ham United Pick: There might not be much for West Brom to play for, but they showed their desire in the narrow defeat to Liverpool on Sunday. The big question has to be how much that fixture has taken out of the players, although any sense of fatigue can only be replaced by the adrenaline boost the fans should be able to give the squad on Wednesday.

Returning fans is huge for clubs and players and I do think West Brom will be able to cause some problems for West Ham United. At home they have been creating chances, although defensively it has been hard work for The Baggies and Sam Allardyce has not been able to make them much tougher at the back.

The manager will be looking to get one over one of his former employers though and I think he will pick a West Brom team that will look to make life tough for a West Ham United team who need the points.

That need does bring a pressure of its own and West Ham United have struggled just as it looked like they might surprisingly push for one of the Champions League places on offer in the Premier League. They have won just 1 of their last 5 Premier League games and West Ham United have lost 3 of those which makes it difficult to pick them to win at odds on.

I imagine those prices are based on West Ham United 'needing' to win, but this is a squad that has just struggled in recent weeks. They are still favourites to earn a place in Europe, but West Ham United are under pressure to pick up a result before hosting Southampton in front of their fans this weekend.

West Ham United did play well at Brighton and create the better chances, but they are vulnerable at the back and they could be exposed by their hosts if getting desperate.

This has the makings of a tense game and I think both teams will have their chances with the first goal likely to be very important. Either way I would be surprised if West Brom capitulate in their final home game and with the fans behind them and I think they can at least push West Ham United all the way.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton-Leeds United Over 3.5 Goals

Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap

Chelsea-Leicester City Under 2.5 Goals

Everton

Newcastle United

Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap

Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap

West Brom + 1 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 37

I had to take a hit in GameWeek 36 with the four teams blanking on FA Cup Final Weekend, but even then I ended up with only nine players producing minutes.

To pick up 47 points (- 8 for hits) was a decent enough return, but the injury sustained by Diogo Jota has ruled him out of the season so it really was a poor transfer decision.

Unsurprisingly Jota is going to be replaced by me this week and I am targeting Raphinha from Leeds United as the replacement- I mentioned last week that Leeds United had three relatively good looking fixtures to play and the 0-4 win at Burnley on Saturday suggests Marcelo Bielsa has his team ready to produce a big finish.

Raphinha has only recently returned from an injury which may mean minutes being managed over the last week, but I would be surprised if he does not start both remaining games. Bringing him in also means I can likely make solid changes for the final GameWeek of the season and produce a strong eleven to conclude this Fantasy season, especially as I get to leave some money in the bank ahead of GameWeek 38.

I will put up my GameWeek 37 team on Twitter at around 5:30pm, but remember the deadline is an hour earlier on Tuesday.

Boxing Picks 2018- Adonis Stevenson vs Badou Jack (May 19th)

It was an absolute pleasure watching Vasyl Lomachenko work last week, but a lot of credit has to be given to Jorge Linares who made the bout as competitive as it was.

I hate when people say Linares quit- I rated him from getting up from a perfect liver punch and it was clear how hurt he was.

There is no way Linares quit on the day, but he just didn't have anything left from a great punch from Lomachenko who has now elevated himself to the Number 1 position in the pound for pound list. I would love to see Lomachenko come over to the United Kingdom if only to have the chance to see a truly special fighter perform, although it looks like Lomachenko is heading towards a SUPER fight with Mikey Garcia assuming both fighters pick up their second World Tittles in the Lightweight Division in the coming months.

Both Lomachenko and Garcia are set for Unification bouts in the summer which would set up a blockbuster between the two for the end of 2018.


Can you imagine an end of the year where Lomachenko-Garcia and Joshua-Wilder both set to go? I think the former is more likely to happen, especially with the news about the latter bout slowing down over the last week as the two teams continue to hash out the details of the deal.

I am hopeful that they will get together and figure it out, but it looks more and more likely that both will be in action this summer in different bouts and any fight between the top two Heavyweights in the world will have to wait until 2019. Hopefully by that time we will be talking about Joshua and Wilder being a part of the top three Heavyweights as Tyson Fury will be a year into his return to the sport too.


One other fighter who we have been hearing a lot from over the last couple of weeks is Tony Bellew who is fresh off another win over David Haye. Bellew has a lot of options and continues to speak about being the best Cruiserweight in the world, but I would have him behind all four Semi Finalists from the World Boxing Super Series.

Bellew won't mind being an underdog to anyone as he has raised his performances in each bout he has been disregarded, but I don't think he truly chases the winner of the World Boxing Super Series as they may not be a 'big enough name' for the casuals to get excited about. That will be the case even if the winner is expected to move up to Heavyweight and instead Bellew is looking at Tyson Fury and Andre Ward as the next fighter he wants to take on.

He is considerably bigger than Ward which would make the fight much closer than most expect, but I would expect Fury to deal with Bellew comfortably.

Having options is great for the Bomber though and it will be interesting to see where he takes himself going forward.


On Saturday we have some really intriguing fights coming up with the headliner from Toronto between Adonis Stevenson and Badou Jack. I can't wait for that one and it really does look a close one to call.

A huge domestic dust up comes from Elland Road earlier in the day and I am looking forward to another big day of Boxing with the Picks from those bouts below.

Lee Selby vs Josh Warrington

A hostile atmosphere awaits Lee Selby as the IBF Featherweight Champion puts his World Title on the line against local hope Josh Warrington at Elland Road in Leeds.

There is plenty on the line for the winner with a likely bout with Carl Frampton set to be put into play at Windsor Park this summer, but neither Selby or Warrington will be looking past this one where genuine dislike between the fighters and the two teams have developed.

This is a fight that Selby does feel is beneath him having reached World level and defended his World Title four times. Some have suggested we have not seen the best of Selby for some time, but I think this is the kind of bout that would have got the adrenaline going and I think we are going to see one of the best performances from Selby as he takes on an unbeaten fighter in front of his own fans.

Being unbeaten means Warrington will come in with a lot of belief in his ability to win the fight but I think this is a significant step up in class for him. His best wins have come against Dennis Ceylan, Kiko Martinez and Hisashi Amagasa but I don't think any of those are great preparation for taking on someone with the ability Selby has.

Even the win over Martinez came by Majority Decision against a fighter who has been stopped by the likes of Scott Quigg and Leo Santa Cruz (and both stopped him within Five Rounds).

I think Warrington will show plenty of heart and come forward and try to rough up Selby, but the latter is a slick boxer and I am looking for him to build up the accumulation of punches as he times Warrington coming in. Neither fighter is known for their Knock Out percentages and so the layers are anticipating the cards being read which is the most likely outcome of this one.

However I think Warrington's style may see him go out on his shield in this one as Selby starts to really dominate in the second half of the fight. Some are questioning whether Selby has some problems making weight, but he has looked good and very confident this week and I think he may just time Warrington onto something late in the fight as the home crowd urge their man forward to try and get back into the bout.

A small interest in Selby finding a second half stoppage to underline his position above Warrington's level is my call.

Gary Russell vs Joseph Diaz

The one loss on Gary Russell's record looks better in each passing month.

Russell was beaten on a Majority Decision by Vasyl Lomachenko but he has bounced back to win four consecutive fights and he has stopped his last three opponents and he has picked up the WBC Featherweight World Title in that time.

He looks to be peaking, although this will only be the third time we see Russell in the ring since April 2016 and it has been almost a year to the day when he beat Oscar Escandon. That inactivity is disappointing when it looks like Russell has plenty of talent and it is never a good look to waste too many years by taking one fight a year.

Facing his mandatory in Joseph Diaz is a tough place to return and Diaz is unbeaten which will make him more of a threat. Fighting from the southpaw stance is going to mean Russell has to readjust his shots and Diaz is definitely a live contender.

However the resume is hard to get a read on for Diaz and Russell is a considerable step up in class for the Golden Boy fighter. His team are confident he can time Russell onto some big shots and with both expected to trade this could be the surprisingly best fight of the night.

The speed of the Russell combinations is likely going to be the difference once he has worked out the southpaw stance and where Diaz is going to be expected to be. I think both fighters will land some big shots, but I expect Russell to begin to get the better of the exchanges by the middle Rounds.

Diaz is going to tough out some moments, but eventually I expect Russell's combinations to perhaps get the referee to step in and record a fourth consecutive stoppage. It could be a really fun fight though with both having to ride out some difficult moments, but I like Russell to get the stoppage at some point.

Adonis Stevenson vs Badou Jack

Superman is back this weekend for the first time in a long time we are expecting to see Adonis Stevenson given a stern examination as a World Champion. The home crowd should be behind Stevenson who has been criticised for the choices of opponents since picking up the WBA Light-Heavyweight Title, but there is no doubting that Badou Jack is a big opponent for him.

Badou Jack has come up from Super-Middleweight and dispatched Nathan Cleverley last year to announce himself at the Light-Heavyweight limit.

Jack has also been on a strong run with wins over the likes of George Groves, Anthony Dirrell and a draw with James DeGale in a fight many thought he had won and all of these fights have come after his loss.

Confidence won't be an issue for Jack, but it does feel like the most important questions are going to be needed to be answered by Stevenson.

Is he too old at 40 years old? Has inactivity slowed down Stevenson? Has he ever been the real deal at Light-Heavyweight or has Stevenson ducked live opponents to keep hold of the WBA Title?

Stevenson does look in fine shape to be honest and I think my lean has been towards the Haitian born, Canadian based Champion to make a statement this weekend. The power is quite staggering from Stevenson and it is a fight changer against any opponent and I just think he may hit Jack with something very early that puts the challenger in a tough situation.

Jack has to try and keep out of trouble and test the stamina of a 40 year old Champion, but I think Stevenson is going to be fresh enough to last the distance if necessary and I think he is also capable of carrying power through the 12 Rounds. There is no doubting Jack is a tough fighter mentally, but he was put down by DeGale and he has been hurt by fighters who simply don't hit anything like as hard as Stevenson who also provides more awkward moments coming out of the southpaw stance.

I just think rumours of the Stevenson demise have been greatly exaggerated and I think he re-announces himself on the world stage with a big performance.

I've had a gut feeling this is an early win for Stevenson to really send out a statement to the rest of the Division and perhaps even line up a potential rematch with Tony Bellew at a catchweight. At some stage I expect Stevenson to hurt Jack to the body and follow up with some thudding shots that hurt the challenger. He won't let Jack off the hook either and I expect Stevenson to hold back Father Time for at least one more fight.

While I've got a feeling it is going to come early, I will simply look for Stevenson to find the stoppage in the fight which is almost a pick 'em coming close to the opening bell.

MY PICKS: Lee Selby Win Between 7-12 @ 6.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Gary Russell to Win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 2.62 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Adonis Stevenson to Win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 2.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2018 Update: 14-28, + 3.63 Units (63 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 19th)

The Tennis Picks had a good Friday to produce a winning record, but it could have been better if Alexander Zverev had been able to win his match against David Goffin without losing one more game.

A winning day is still a winning day though and I am looking for another positive return on Saturday as the four Semi Final get set to be played.

Friday was a busy day for me and I have been looking forward to getting some rest. That means I am simply putting down my Tennis Picks for the day on Saturday which can be read below.

MY PICKS: Anett Kontaveit + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Marin Cilic + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 14-10, + 5.74 Units (48 Units Staked, + 11.96% Yield)

FA Cup Final 2018 Pick- Chelsea v Manchester United (May 19th)

Chelsea v Manchester United FA Cup Final 2018

Expected Chelsea Team: Courtois, Azpilicueta, Cahill, Rudiger, Moses, Alonso, Bakayoko, Fabregas, Kante, Hazard and Giroud

Expected Manchester United Team: De Gea, Valencia, Young, Smalling, Jones, Matic, Pogba, Herrera, Rashford, Lingard, Alexis Sanchez

This is an important game for both Manchester United and Chelsea with a chance to end another campaign with silverware to put into their bursting trophy cabinets.

Neither team will be completely satisfied with the performances in the Premier League, but Manchester United should be in a better place than Chelsea who have missed out on Champions League Football for the coming season.

Rumours continue to persist that Antonio Conte will be relieved of his position as manager of Chelsea in the coming days and I do think that has an impact on the preparation for the Cup Final.

It is almost in stark contrast to last season when Chelsea went into the FA Cup Final as the strong favourites to beat Arsenal and complete the Double after winning the Premier League a few days earlier. This time they come in with the questions and face a team who have achieved some of their goals and perhaps feeling in a better place all around.

However recent Manchester United performances have been under-par and it is hard to turn the switch to produce a much better display. In saying that Manchester United have raised their game against the best teams and you can't ignore the fact they have beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal since their 2-0 loss here against Spurs in the Premier League at the end of January and 2 of those wins have come away from Old Trafford.

The likely absence of Romelu Lukaku is a blow as he has been a very important part of the team with the way Mourinho sets Manchester United up. His participation is touch and go, but I think Lukaku will be a bench player at best and Mourinho may decide to play with Alexis Sanchez as his most forward player in this one, although he will be able to interchange with Marcus Rashford who scored last week which may earn him the start.

Manchester United have shown they can score against the top teams in those recent wins and they have managed at least two goals in each of those. They won the FA Cup in 2016 so the majority of the squad will know the feeling of doing that as they snapped Manchester United's wait for a success in this competition which had dragged back to 2004.

On the other hand Chelsea know what it is like to lose a Final having done that just twelve months ago. This is a club who had won four of six FA Cups between 2007 and 2012, but who have not won the competition since then and the rumours about Antonio Conte's future will not be helping.

Chelsea did beat Liverpool a couple of weeks ago, but they had a poor recent record against the top clubs in 2018 prior to that having lost to Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur. The side have not found their best away from Stamford Bridge for large portions of this calendar year too and the negative display at Newcastle United last weekend is a big worry.

There is clearly some quality in the starting line up for Chelsea and they played well at Old Trafford for half an hour with the game turning on Manchester United's equaliser. I think they will pose problems and I expect the players to produce a much bigger performance than last weekend when they perhaps knew their chances of a top four finish was already beyond them.

A close game should develop, but I don't think it will be one without chances for both teams and the layers are taking a chance with the prices for at least three goals to be shared out.

4 of the last 6 FA Cup Finals have ended with at least three goals shared out including last seasons and that looks like it will have every chance of happening here at the big prices being offered.

Picking a winner in normal time is difficult with neither team playing their best football to end the season. However the difference in the results Manchester United and Chelsea have had in 'big' games over the last couple of months does make me believe Jose Mourinho can add another trophy to his list of honours and another to the heaving Manchester United trophy cabinet.


I just expect a more 'together' performance from Manchester United across the ninety minutes and there is a chance, albeit a slight one, that Chelsea produce another sub-par performance for their beleaguered manager. Both teams could play a part in this one, but I will look for Manchester United to prevail on the Asian Handicap which is effectively a 'Draw No Bet' market for the Cup Final.

MY PICKS: Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2017 (May 19th)

We have reached the Quarter Finals at the Rome Masters/Premier Event taking place this week and familiar names have once again gotten to the business end of a clay court tournament.

It has become clear who should be leading the way as the top contenders at the French Open in both the men's and women's events to be played there, although the question marks about the mental strength and the composure for a couple of the players in the women's draw are going to be much harder to determine.

The draw takes place in a week on Friday and that is going to be a key as to which players could be backed for a long bid to win a Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. That is a matter for another day and I am focusing on the eight matches that are due to be played in Rome on Friday.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The clay court season has been a memorable one for Anett Kontaveit who has beaten some of the big names on the WTA Tour in the last few weeks. Garbine Muguruza and Angelique Kerber are the biggest names Kontaveit has beaten, but facing off against Simona Halep may be the ultimate test for her at this moment.

It looks like Halep will head into the French Open as the favourite to win the women's title there having come close to Grand Slam success in the past. She has furthered her claims by winning the title in Madrid last week and the two wins Halep has produced this week, especially in the manner she has won those matches, will only have more and more people expecting the Romanian to win her maiden Grand Slam title.

This is not going to be an easy Quarter Final with the way Kontaveit has been playing and fatigue won't be an excuse for either player with the amount of tennis both have played. There is plenty of power that comes off the Kontaveit racquet, but Halep has the better movement and I do think she is the superior clay court player which should see her find her way into strong positions throughout this match.

The heavy win Halep had over Kontaveit in Miami a couple of months ago might also play a part when the pressurised moments arrive and I think Halep is going to be too strong on the day. It will be closer than their match in Miami was, but I would expect Halep to have enough in her game to come back with a 6-4, 6-3 win.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: It was another impressive fightback from Daria Gavrilova to come through her Third Round match against Svetlana Kuznetsova, but there has to be some fatigue in play when you get to this Quarter Final. She has battled her way through the draw, but I am still not completely convinced about her comfort on the clay and there were some special shots needed to turn this match in her favour in the third set.

There are only so many times you can go to the well and Gavrilova is likely going to need to that again on Friday when taking on Kiki Bertens who has been very comfortable back on the clay courts.

The Dutchwoman has perhaps not been as strong as she would have liked, but Bertens is showing plenty of consistency over the last couple of weeks as she backs up a strong run in Madrid with another Quarter Final showing in Rome. Bertens has played well in the last couple of Rounds and she has the power to really push Gavrilova back in this one, although the feisty Australian is never going to be a pushover.

I am expecting there will be some tight moments between these two as both are able to earn the break points to put themselves in a strong position in the match. It would be a bigger surprise to me if we didn't see a number of breaks of serve, but I do think Bertens is the superior server and that can give her the edge in the match, even if it needs three sets to separate them.

After a tough match, I will be backing Bertens to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 kind of win.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v John Isner: There is no doubt that we are going to see a lot of big serving whenever Marin Cilic and John Isner meet, but the Croatian has generally found a way to get enough balls back in play to crack Isner's game. Cilic is big enough to get to more balls than many others on the Tour and he will always feel he can get the better of the rallies once they develop.

It is a big reason Cilic is 6-1 up in the head to head between these two players, although it should be noted that the most recent match ended with Isner snapping his run of losses against the Croatian. That came on the fast indoor courts at the Paris Masters, but the conditions won't be anything near that quick in Rome on the clay courts.

The heat that has been around in Rome will mean the Isner serve still travels through the court and the big American has a couple of solid wins so far including beating Stan Wawrinka. However I have to say that Cilic is showing a lot more form than Wawrinka at this moment and I don't think he will be as loose with his game as Wawrinka was.

Cilic has also found a way to get into break point positions against the Isner serve and has the patience to wait for his moment and I think that is important for him in this Quarter Final. While there will be moments when Isner is throwing down unplayable bombs, Cilic will have his moments making enough returns to get some mistakes from the Isner game and I think that is where he will take control of the match.

The Istanbul Champion has looked good so far this week and I think he can get the better of Isner with a 7-6, 6-4 kind of win to help him through to the Semi Final.


Alexander Zverev v Milos Raonic: This has been set as a pick 'em contest, but I am really surprised that Alexander Zverev has been set as the underdog between these two players. He has been playing with some consistency on the clay courts and Milos Raonic does prefer the faster surfaces despite his solid run in the draw in Rome.

Raonic has reached the Semi Final in Rome before, but that is an outlier to his usual performances here and this season is actually his second best run. The conditions simply do not favour Raonic whose serve can be nullified by players while the patience you need to really perform on the clay courts is not the game that the Canadian wants to bring to the court.

He did reach the Final in Istanbul during the clay court swing, but there haven't been a lot of stand out wins for Raonic. His losses to Marin Cilic and David Goffin are against players who are around the same level as Zverev on the clay courts and I think the young German can continue what has been a fine 2017 so far.

Only one of the losses on the clay have been disappointing for Zverev with the others having real reasons behind them. He is playing with the confidence which saw him dominate Fabio Fognini in the Third Round and the key for the youngster is not allowing emotion to overcome him if Raonic does hit a few big serves which is what you have to expect from him.

Zverev has won a title on the clay courts already this season and he looks like someone who is getting more comfortable on the surface. This is unlikely to ever be Raonic's favourite surface and I think the underdog can find a way to win this one and move into the Semi Final.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This is the third tournament in a row on the clay courts that Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal will play one another, although the last two matches have both been in the Final in Barcelona and Madrid. This time it is a Quarter Final match and we will get to see what Thiem has learned from his last two experiences against the 'King of Clay'.

The first meeting in Barcelona ended in one sided fashion for Nadal, but the Final in Madrid was much more competitive. However that might have something to do with the faster clay court conditions that don't suit Nadal as much as they will in Rome and I think the Spaniard will be able to win this by a couple of games clearer than he did in Madrid.

Fatigue has to be an issue for Thiem who had to go deep into a third set to beat Sam Querrey on Thursday and had a tight two set win over Pablo Cuevas on Wednesday. While both reached the same stage in Madrid last week, Nadal has been able to basically have a walkover in one Round and was a much more comfortable winner over Jack Sock in the Third Round.

I've got so much time for Dominic Thiem and I really do enjoy the way he plays, but I can't escape the fact that he has to be feeling all the tennis he has played. Someone like Rafael Nadal is going to play every point with the intention of wearing down his opponent and I think he will ultimately be able to do that against the young and upcoming star of the ATP Tour.

I do think this one might go in the direction of their meeting in Barcelona rather than the one in Madrid. That means the first set could be very competitive but that is when Thiem may begin to feel the fatigue build up and Nadal can come away with a 6-4, 6-3 win and move into yet another Semi Final on the clay courts and further strengthen his position as favourite to win the French Open.


Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Over the years matches between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro have been incredibly tight and competitive affairs. That was even happening off Del Potro's return to the Tour during the peak Djokovic years and I simply think this is a match up that will always give the Serb problems.

As well as Djokovic may return, Del Potro possesses a serve that can bring up short balls and he has the power and consistency to penetrate the famed Djokovic defences. Not many players can replicate that from Del Potro over the course of two hours like the Argentinian can and that is enough to make him very tough for Djokovic to handle.

The clay courts arguably favour Djokovic enough to help him have the edge in this match, but he has not played with the confidence of twelve months ago. It should mean Del Potro is able to get a foot hold in the match too and push this match the distance which has not been uncommon when these players have met.

Twice already in 2017 Djokovic has been able to see off Del Potro but both times he has needed to go the distance to do that. Five of their last six matches in a best of three environment have gone the distance and all of those have been won by Djokovic with the exception being won by Del Potro at the Olympic Games last summer.

I think this is another that will enter the third set and both players will have their chances to win in that decider. However I think Djokovic will just show a little more at the key moments in that set and I will have a small interest in him winning this in three sets.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic Win 2-1 in Sets @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 13-8, + 7.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 18.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (May 19th)

You have to be careful this week not to fall into a trap of backing a player that might have to head to Paris early for the qualifying ahead of the French Open. It will be less of a concern as the week goes on with the majority of those players likely to be out of events, but it proved to be a real issue on Monday at some of the tournaments being played.

I always wonder why players who know they need to head off early are allowed to be entered into tournaments this week as you know they are going to tank away a match at some point to prepare for that qualification coming up. That just seems really strange to me and something tournaments and the Tour have to work on together to prevent happening too often.


Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It hasn't been the most consistent return to the Tour for Janko Tipsarevic, but that has to be expected for a player that hadn't played a tournament in eighteen months.

Tipsarevic can't look back at his career with disappointment as he really did get the best out of his ability, but he clearly has made a return because he feels there is some unfinished business for him. And you can look at his return with some positives that he has won matches on his return and none of his losses has seen him outplayed to such an extent as to knock his confidence.

If Tipsarevic can bring that confidence to Geneva, I would fancy his chances to beat Denis Istomin who has slipped down the World Rankings and who has been struggling for some time on the court. The clay season has almost gone by with a lot of losses for Istomin, although I do think his game has to be respected as he has plenty of talent at his disposal.

However, Istomin's confidence has to be in a poor place and he is always liable to throw in a terrible service game or two and that might give Tipsarevic the chance to come through with a narrow 75, 64 win.


Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He had been awarded a Wild Card into the French Open Qualifiers this year having won the Junior title last season, but Andrey Rublev doesn't seem to have taken that. That is a surprise to me considering how much he has been playing on the main Tour and the young Russian has all the makings of someone who is going to be amongst the next generation at the top of the men's game.

He has already won a fair few First Round matches on the main Tour, including beating Jarkko Nieminen in the First Round here, while Rublev's best win has come against Fernando Verdasco in Barcelona last month.

Rublev has some power off the ground and is growing into his body, but it will be a big ask to beat the reigning US Open Champion even if Marin Cilic has been struggling to get back into the groove since his injury lay off.

Cilic has had some disappointing losses over the last few weeks and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but those have come at a high level for the most part and Rublev will be under pressure by the aggressive return of serve Cilic employs. It won't be easy for Cilic simply as he tries to work out what Rublev is going to bring to the court, but I think Cilic is good enough to still find a way to find a break of serve more in each set and come through 63, 75.


Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: He is the kind of character that tennis will love to have amongst their ranks as Nick Kyrgios will likely bring in a lot of attention for casual viewers as long as he continues progressing at his current rate. I am not convinced Kyrgios will ever become a serial winner on the Tour, but his serve will give him a chance for plenty of upset wins as shown already in his young career as he has wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.

The clay courts would have been expected to be Kyrgios' worst surface, but he has reached the Final in Estoril and has beaten Federer on it this season. That kind of form gives him a great chance to beat Mikhail Kukushkin who has generally struggled on clay through his career and doesn't have much form coming into this tournament.

There is no doubting the talent that Kukushkin has, but he can be so erratic with his play and can't afford to do that against a player that serves as big as Kyrgios.

As long as Kyrgios remains focused and not look ahead to the French Open, where he will be Seeded, I think the Australian has enough in his game to come through with a 63, 76 win.


Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: The American players generally are not big fans of the European clay courts and Sam Querrey is no different as he takes in a stop in Nice ahead of the French Open. Querrey has lost early in Madrid and Rome and must be looking forward to the extended grass court season before returning home for the North American hard court swing leading into the US Open.

Those faster surfaces suit Querrey as his serve really can carry him through matches, while his movement is less of an issue with rallies generally being shorter. However, on the clay those issues are exposed and someone like Juan Monaco has all the experience to find the holes in the Querrey game to move into the Quarter Final.

It has been a little bit of a disappointment for Monaco on the clay courts so far as he would have expected to have picked up more wins than he has so far since the Miami Masters when he was a surprise Quarter Finalist on the hard courts. Monaco has been guilty of missing some opportunities as he has struggled to put away opponents when they looked down and out, but he should have the edge in any of the rallies that get into five shots or more territory.

Both were impressive First Round winners, but the extra clay court nous that Monaco has should help him come through with a 64, 64 win as long as Querrey doesn't serve extra-big in this one.

MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.06 Units (6 Units Staked, + 84.33% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks (May 19th)

It is the final day of the Premier League season and it is one where a number of famous faces from the English game will be moving on, most notably Sir Alex Ferguson.

You have to be aware about motivation at this point of the season and it can be a bit of a minefield with some players beginning to think about where they are going to be sunning themselves on a beach next week.


Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: It has been rumoured that the Manchester City players were very happy to see the back of Roberto Mancini earlier this week and they did respond with a comfortable 0-2 win at Reading on Tuesday night.

This looks like the perfect chance to end their season with some positive memories as they are facing a Norwich City team that has been very poor on their travels this season and one that secured their Premier League future last weekend.

I am expecting an attacking Manchester City side to get stuck into their opponents and I do think Norwich may just have relaxed a little bit after beating West Brom at Carrow Road. The Canaries have conceded a lot of goals in their away games this season including heavy losses at Liverpool and Manchester United and I think Manchester City win this one by a couple of goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland Pick: There is nothing that Tottenham Hotspur can really do about whether they finish in the top four or not as they are relying on Newcastle United to get some sort of a result against Arsenal in the North East. However, the home team will know anything less than three points in this game will give them no chance at all and I expect them to do that at the very least.

Tottenham have been scoring a fair few goals of late and they seem to be facing Sunderland at the right time. The away team are now safe in the Premier League and they are missing a lot of their main attacking talent, while their motivation is gone. Paolo Di Canio has demanded his players give a full effort in the game, but it remains the point that Sunderland have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the Premier League, were thumped 6-1 at Villa Park in their latest away game, and many of the players will be aware that big changes will be coming in the off-season.

Those factors could see Sunderland struggle to contain Tottenham, but all the prices have been adjusted because the home team 'needs' the win.

Instead, I think it makes more sense for Gareth Bale to be named 'Man of the Match' as he is likely to play an integral part of any win Spurs can manage, while he has been scoring plenty of winning goals for them himself. After winning all the personal awards you can this season, Bale will be high in the thoughts of the 'Man of the Match' award and you have to think he would likely get it if he is on the scoresheet.


Wigan Athletic v Aston Vila Pick: The Wigan Athletic fans have enjoyed the highs and the disappointment of the lows in the last week as their side won the FA Cup, but were also relegated from the Premier League.

I can't imagine them rolling over here, but it has to be a real shock to the system of the players that will be playing their third game in a week and I think Aston Villa could spring the surprise win.

Aston Villa have been playing a lot better to close the season when they secured their place in the Premier League and even in the absence of Christian Benteke, they certainly look a side capable of scoring goals. Villa have won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League, including at struggling sides Reading, Stoke City and Norwich City, and they have the pace to exploit tired Wigan legs.

The side also have a strong record at the DW Stadium having been unbeaten in their last 6 visits to this stadium. Last season, this fixture ended goalless, but Aston Villa had won 4 straight before that and I can see them ending their season with a flourish.


MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gareth Bale win 'Man of the Match' @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 4.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


May Update: 5-7, - 0.80 Units (14 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)

April Final: 10-21, - 9.15 Units (45 Units Staked, - 20.33% Yield)
March Final: 16-20, + 7.43 Units (55 Units Staked, + 13.51% Yield)
February Final: 14-23, - 2.81 Units (48 Units Staked, - 5.85% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 3.42 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.63% Yield)

English Play Off Finals

I am going to use this one post for my English Play Off Finals that are to take place over the next 8 days starting with the Championship game on May 19th.


Blackpool v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14301-Blackpool-v-West-Ham.htm)

Huddersfield v Sheffield United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14344-Huddersfield-v-Sheffield-United.htm)


MY PICKS: West Ham to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Huddersfield-Sheffield United Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Champions League Final 2012

The Champions League Final is in Munich this year and at least one of these teams has to be considered a real surprise Finalist. When the draw for the Quarter Finals were made, I think the majority of people out there would have thought this was going to be a Final between the two Spanish giants of Real Madrid and Barcelona, but both were ousted by Bayern Munich and Chelsea at the Semi Final stage.

I think the two teams need to be given absolute credit for reaching this stage and it is no surprise that Bayern Munich are considered the favourites with the Final taking place in their home stadium, but the last team given this right was Roma back in 1984 and they failed to win that Final against another English side, Liverpool.

Below you will find my keys to the game and what I believe will be the decisive factor when it is all said and done. I will also post a link to my preview of the game and my pick from the Final.

Keys to the Final

Can Chelsea defend as they did in the Semi Final: Chelsea were rightly given a lot of praise for their win over Barcelona in the Semi Finals, but I think they were given a little too much for their defensive performance as they did afford the Catalan club a number of chances to score in both legs, although the second half performance in the second leg with ten men was more than admirable.

Defending Bayern Munich in that manner may lead to more problems for Chelsea as they will be dealing with front man in Mario Gomez that Barcelona do not have. Gomez is very much a striker that will look to get on the end of chances and also gives Bayern a 'Plan B' as he is very good in the air and that is an element that Barcelona do not have.

That also meant that Chelsea could defend much narrower in the Semi Final with the confidence that Barcelona would not launch balls into the box and, even if they did, that they could defend anything that came in there. But Chelsea are missing some big defenders and that leads me to the second key for the game.

How will Chelsea cope in the absence of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic: Both teams are misisng some players through suspension, but these two could be the absolute key for the London club as that means the likes of Gary Cahill and David Luiz are likely to make up the back four, two players that have not played much football recently through injury.

Without the calming influence Terry provides (at least when he is not kneeing opponents in the backside), it is going to be a tougher day in the office for the defence, while David Luiz in particular  has to show the discipline he did in the latter half of the season rather than what he was showing earlier in the campaign.

With the Bayern Munich wingers, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, being their main dangers, that is where the absence of Branislav Ivanovic could be huge as Paulo Ferriera or Jose Bosingwa, his most likely replacements, are a huge drop off in terms of defending class compared with the Serbian.

An unfamiliar back four is not the ideal way any team would want to start a Champions League Final.

The Midfield Battle: This is another area where Chelsea will be missing some key personnel like Ramires and Raul Meireles, but this is also a position where Bayern Munich will be missing Luis Gustavo who did a lot of good work in the Semi Final against Real Madrid.

The problem for Chelsea is they are missing two of their more dynamic central midfield players and they could find it hard to keep tabs on the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos when Bayern are on the attack.

Midfield is always an important part of any football game and it does seem that the German side have the edge in that department. Chelsea will need Frank Lampard, who will be Captain for the day, at his very best, but I do worry about the impact Jon Mikel Obi can have in a game of this magnitude.

Problems earlier in the season for Chelsea can from a tired looking midfield and that is something I worry about them here. I don't think they have the legs required there to keep the roaming Bayern players at bay.

However, the Bavarians will be missing Gustavo and he is the main player that looks to break the play for them. This will give Chelsea the chance to spring some counter attacks and try and expose a Munich defence that isn't the best.

Chelsea have to be quick on the counter and take any half chances coming their way: Much as they did against Barcelona, Chelsea need to make maximum use of the counter attack, and they have to take any chances that land to them.

Let's face facts- they literally had about 4 chances against Barcelona in the Semi Final and were very efficient by taking 3 of them, but they will need that type of production if they are going to win this Final.

I expect they will look to contain Bayern for large parts of this game, so they have to make full use of the speed they are likely to employ in wide positions and hope Didier Drogba is in the same mood he was for the Barcelona games in what could be his final appearance for the Blues.

The Bayern Munich defence is definitely the weakest aspect of their team and, like Chelsea, they are missing a couple of key players in Holger Badstuber and David Alaba. This is an area that Chelsea will be able to exploit as long as they are efficient and making the right decisions when they do have the ball going forward.

Dealing with the expectation: This is a big emotional factor in the game- all season, Bayern Munich have spoken about getting to the Final that will be held in their own Stadium and now that they are here, the question has to be asked as to how she deals with the expectations of their supporters and upper levels of management.

Bayern are the favourites almost every where you look and that is a big expectation to deal with for the players as they enter the biggest match of their careers (for a lot of them at least).

How they deal with it is a tough question to answer- I can tell you after I watch the game, but there is no real telling before kick off.but this will be a big key in the contest.

I will be expecting Bayern to make a fast start and try and ease their own nerves, but nerves do lead to mistakes and they have to be careful not to overplay the game in their minds.

Luck: Sometimes all you need is luck (I think that's what the Beatles were singing about)... Chelsea have had their fair share of luck already in this tournament, but they could win the trophy if they haven't used it all up.

Chelsea were fortunate in games against Napoli and even Barcelona to a certain extent, but that doesn't mean it is due to run out. I remember Manchester United's run to the 1999 Champions League trophy and we had our fair share of luck in wins over Inter Milan, Juventus and then against Bayern Munich in the Final when we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals down.

Is it their destiny to win the Champions League? I guess we will find out on Saturday.

Predicted Teams

Bayern Munich: Neuer, Contento, Lahm, Boateng, Tymoschchuk, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Pranjic, Robben, Ribery and Gomez (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Cole, Cahill, Luiz, Mikel, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Kalou and Drogba (4-3-3)

Preview

You can find my full preview of this game and why I am picking what I am here (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14299-Bayern-Munich-v-Chelsea.htm)


MY PICK: Bayern Munich @ 1.80 Coral (3 Units)