Midweek Football Picks 2014 (August 19-21)

That was a troubled opening weekend of the new football season for the picks and one that escalated quickly with the poor results. If it wasn't for an injury-time goal from Sergio Aguero, it really would have been a torrid start for the picks.

Some of the blame has to be taken by me, but there were some real surprising results, none more so than the terrible display put forth by Manchester United after all the promise of pre-season. There were a number of injuries to contend with, but that would be a big excuse for Louis Van Gaal and not one he is likely to employ as United started with players that had been performing in pre-season games.

Stoke City's home loss to Aston Villa was another disappointing result, the second season in a row that Villa have started with an upset on their travels in the Premier League. And then both Arsenal and Liverpool scored late winners, but edged over the line in games against Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively.


A portion of the poor performances could be played on the tiredness that some players may have felt from the World Cup and I do think there was a real argument to put the League campaign back one more weekend as they have done in Spain and Italy. I think that was partially the reason that Arsenal and Liverpool laboured as much as they did, although the first day/month of the season can be a little stop-start for the players as they regain their form and fitness.


In a weekend where Manchester United disappointed so greatly, I was casting some envious glances at Chelsea where Cesc Fabregas returned to the Premier League as if he had never been away. Fabregas is suited so well to the Premier League and was in fantastic form against Burnley as he pulled the strings from the middle of the park, an area where United need improvement.

Why they didn't pursue the Spanish international as they did last summer is beyond me? If I had to put my finger on a reason though, I would hazard a guess that Fabregas told United he isn't interested in coming to the club and thus the statements made to the media are more of a face-saving exercise than a genuine 'we didn't want him'.

The next two weeks are going to be critical for Manchester United as they look to bring in reinforcements that were supposed to be wrapped up weeks before the start of the season. Unfortunately, this window is beginning to look more and more like last summer which should mean fingers are pointed at Ed Woodward and the Glaziers even in light of their grand declarations that we can spend whatever we like.

Anyone with a semblance of knowledge of how the Glaziers have run United over the last ten years will be more than a little dubious about those claims and they have two weeks to prove us all wrong and bring in the faces that will ensure a bid for a top four place. Failure to do that could be catastrophic for a team and a quick look down the M62 will show United fans how difficult it is to return to the elite in the Premier League in the face of financial restraints and a poor squad that needs an injection of new blood to get them moving in the right direction again.


This week is another Champions League/Europa League qualifying week and it is the final one before the Group Stage begins in both of those competitions. There are some big teams in action and some big Play Off matches that will be played over the next eight days as the likes of Arsenal, Napoli, Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur all play this week.

Hopefully this August month will pick up and not follow the trend of twelve months ago when I really struggled early in the season with my picks before turning the season around for a profitable one.


Besiktas v Arsenal Pick: As much as I believe that Arsenal are a big favourite to beat Besiktas over two legs to move back into the Champions League Group Stage, I can't help but feel they are very short to win the first leg in Turkey.

I do think Arsenal are a much better team than Besiktas, even with the latter signing Demba Ba this summer, and I think the pressure is on the Turkish side to get something out of this game. Previous matches in England have ended badly for Besiktas more often than not so anything other than having something to defend next week could be curtains for them already.

Arsenal also have the benefit of the experience of winning in the Play Off Rounds and also beat Fenerbache of Turkey last season in the first leg- that came after a disappointing performance at home in the Premier League so there isn't a lot for the fans to worry about as they head to Turkey.

The Gunners have won all 12 games played at this stage of the Champions League and I do think they are capable of winning this one too. However, they may have to ride out an early Besiktas storm and Arsenal might have to wait until after the break before they take control.

Their last 3 away wins in the Champions League have all come after Arsenal have gone into the break level, while Arsenal also haven't been ahead in 3 of their last 4 away Play Off games in the Champions League, but have won all of those. That means the value may be in backing Arsenal to win a game after it goes in level at the break.


Napoli v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Out of all the ties that are to be played in the Champions League this week, Napoli versus Athletic Bilbao looks to be the most exciting one, although I do think the experience of the Italians may win the day.

Napoli have performed very well in the Champions League in their appearances over the last three seasons and they were very unlucky not to split Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund in the top two places of their Group last season. That follows their campaign in 2011/12 where they did help knock out Manchester City and it is the home games that have provided the winning platform.

The side have won 6 of their 7 home games in the Champions League, including the last 5 in a row and that means they should be plenty confident of beating Athletic Bilbao. In Rafa Benitez, Napoli also have a manager that has had a lot of success in European games, particularly knock out ties and I believe the former Liverpool manager will have the team tactically and mentally ready for this one.

One factor going against Napoli is that they have had a lot more players coming back from the World Cup than Athletic Bilbao and we have seen teams struggle with that aspect in the Premier League. However, Athletic Bilbao's Ernesto Valverde admitted that shows that Napoli have the higher quality and his team need to use their work ethic to win this game.

It'll be tough for Athletic Bilbao who haven't had the best recent away record in European competition to get a result here and I do believe Napoli can have a lead to take to Spain next week. I expect to see some very good football over the next 180 minutes played by these teams, but this is a game that I think Napoli can win and give themselves a platform to move back into the Group Stage.


Lille v Porto Pick: This looks like a tight European Champions League Play Off and the layers clearly are feeling the same about this first leg with both teams at big prices to earn the advantage ahead of the second leg in Portugal.

I am much the same in trying to separate the teams and their chances to win this game and I think the draw is a major player in this first leg where both teams would believe that gives them a real chance to progress.

Lille have been tough to beat at home, but they draw plenty of games as they can sometimes struggle against stubborn teams. Their home record in the Champions League at the highest level is not the best in recent season, but on the other hand Porto have struggled to win games on their travels too.

With just 1 win from their last 9 away games in all competitions and just 1 win from their last 9 away games in Europe, Porto might be quite content to take this tie back home to complete the job. Porto did struggle at home last season in the Group Stage, but prior to that had won 6 of 8 home games in the Champions League and were unbeaten in those games, while the team also won their last 2 home games in the Europa League last season.

Everything seems to be pointing to a tight battle on Wednesday too and I think the draw is the most pleasing result for both managers with all to play for next week in Portugal.


Maribor v Celtic Pick: After the controversy of the last round, Celtic will be looking to take full advantage of their reprieve in the Champions League. However, the defeat to Legia Warsaw at least highlighted to the fans that Celtic are not a guarantee to beat the Slovenian Champions Maribor who will also be familiar of breaking Glaswegian hearts.

Maribor knocked Rangers out of the Europa League three years ago in a Play Off, while they have also beaten Hibernian from Scotland the year before that. This is a side that has generally found the Champions League a happy hunting ground until they have reached this stage, but Maribor won't look at Celtic as a team that has earned their place at this stage through their performances on the field.

That isn't to say that they will take Celtic lightly, but Maribor do look a big price to win the first leg- it was only twelve months ago that Shakhter Karagandy surprised Celtic with a 2-0 home win in Kazakhstan and Maribor have been very strong at home in recent Champions League home ties.

The concern is that Maribor have lost their last 2 home games in the Champions League Play Offs, but I don't believe Celtic are better than Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen, especially with the players that have departed this summer.

I actually think Celtic would accept a draw and try to complete the win at Celtic Park next week, but that may give Maribor enough of an incentive to push on and earn a first leg advantage. The price just looks out of sync from what we have seen from Celtic so far this season and Maribor have won their last 2 home games when Scottish teams have visited them.

Add in the strong home form in the European competitions, over the last three seasons and Maribor may just become the latest European team that surprises the Scottish Champions.

MY PICKS: Draw HT-Arsenal FT @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Napoli @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lille-Porto Draw @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Maribor @ 3.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

August Update: 1-6, - 8.8 Units (13 Units Staked, - 67.69% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2014

And then there were four... The NBA season is winding down with the four teams that most would have predicted would be facing off in the Conference Finals all taking their seats.

Eastern Conference Finals Picks and Preview

                                                                       

Indiana Pacers (1) v Miami Heat (2)

The two teams that were considered the best in the Eastern Conference get a chance to meet once again with a place in the NBA Finals on the line and this should be a better series than what some may expect after seeing what we have in the Play Offs to this point.

The Indiana Pacers have looked vulnerable as they struggled to see off the Atlanta Hawks and the Washington Wizards in the first two Rounds of the Play Offs. After losing just six home games during the regular season, the Pacers have lost four times on this court in the Play Offs and the hard work to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Pacers clearly match up very well with a Miami team that have crushed Charlotte and Brooklyn for the loss of one game so far in the Play Offs. Roy Hibbert provides the height and power to prevent the easy access to the rim, while they have enough length and speed to close on the three point shooters that make the eat so dangerous.

An issue for Indiana is going to be try and get a consistent performance from the team through this series as their up and down games against their first two opponents won't cut it. They've only won back to back games once in the Play Offs and failed to do that at home.

I do think the series will be closer than the form may indicate simply because Indiana have played Miami so close as shown by the 7-7 record over the last 14 games. Even with that in mind, I can't go against the Heat making to their fourth straight NBA Finals simply because the Pacers have been too inconsistent to beat them four times in my mind.

Prediction: Miami Heat in Six Games

Sunday 18th May

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game One Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly can make life difficult for the Miami Heat with the rotations they can put on the court and this is a bad match up for the defending NBA Champions, but it also means ignoring what we have seen over the last two months from Indiana.

If they can impose their style on Game One, the Pacers will always be able to win their share of games against Miami, but home court hasn't been much of an advantage for the team over the last three weeks. Losing four games on their own floor in the Play Offs doesn't inspire confidence in the Pacers to win this series and Miami have plenty of experience to come to the Bankers Life Fieldhouse and steal at least one of the first two games here.

Indiana have rarely put together back to back impressive performances in the Play Offs so Game One might be a real chance for Miami to take away home court that the Pacers invested so much energy into taking in the regular season. A couple of extra days of rest is also on Miami's side in time for Game One and I believe they win and cover the spread to open the Eastern Conference Finals.


Tuesday 20th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Two Pick: Before the Eastern Conference Finals began, it was clear that the Indiana Pacers would give Miami plenty of match up problems, but I doubt anyone would have predicted the performance they were going to produce in Game One.

Indiana were hitting plenty of shots outside of the three point perimeter and managed to earn a big lead when it came to free throws attempted and that raises the question of whether they can achieve the same thing for two games in a row.

I would have to expect Miami to improve their defensive effort in Game Two than they had on Sunday, but the Heat will be confident they can steal home court advantage if they can replicate their own offensive success from Game One. The Heat will also expect to be better from the three point perimeter where they struggled on Sunday and I do think this will be a lot closer in Game Two.

This Pacers team is built to beat Miami, but they are so inconsistent that it is hard to see them back up their Game One almost perfect performance with another one on Tuesday. I expect a tough, tense Game Two, but one where the Heat make the adjustments to take away home court before the series returns to South Beach at the weekend.


Saturday 24th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Three Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly do match up well against the Miami Heat and better shooting in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two would have given the Pacers a two game lead in the series. However, their offensive problems are well-documented and the lack of consistency, especially once they get down to the bench players, is going to be tough to overcome.

The three days rest will have given Paul George enough time to recover from the concussion he suffered in Game Two and I would expect him to take to the court. However, if he is limited or unavailable, the Miami Heat will have a big advantage when they have the ball in hand.

Even with George on the court, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade showed what they are capable of doing in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two and they will need a little more help from their role players to get away from the Pacers. Chris Bosh is yet to show up in the series so could be due a big game and Miami have found a way to get it done against Indiana at home in recent games of the series.

Miami have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games against Indiana overall and have also covered in 3 of their last 4 at home. I will back them to cover the spread in Game Three.


Monday 26th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Four Pick: The Miami Heat have overcome slow starts to win the last two games in this series and I think they have a little too much depth and offense for the Indiana Pacers to deal with.

With the chance to really put their foot on Indiana's throat, I think Miami extend their home winning run against the Pacers.

The fact that they have also covered the spread in four of the last five games against Indiana at home is another plus for Miami and I think they can do the same again in Game Four.


Wednesday 28th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Five Pick: The close out game of any series is always a much tougher game to play, but the experience of the Miami Heat over the last four years should give them the confidence to get this Eastern Conference Finals completed as soon as Wednesday night. The Heat will also be very much aware that they have got the Indiana Pacers on the floor and they will not want to allow this dangerous opponent get up and force a pressure filled Game Six back in Miami.

Being without Ray Allen could present some problems as he has been very effective from the three point line and has been provided Miami with another offensive spark outside of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but these two players have been the best players during the series at clutch time which has helped Miami lead 3-1 when they could easily be at 2-2 or 1-3.

I do expect a big effort from the Indiana Pacers, but I think they are lacking another consistent offensive weapon outside of Lance Stephenson and Paul George, while the bench isn't providing enough to allow Indiana to pull away from the Heat.

I've backed Miami in every game in the series and they have come up trumps three times out of four games- I would feel I've over thunk this situation if I don't back the Heat to close the show on Wednesday evening.


Friday 30th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Six Pick: There were a few very strange calls in Game Five from the officials that gave Indiana the chance to win after being in a big hole and all with LeBron James having to have extended time on the bench. The calls of James were ridiculous with at least three of the five fouls he picked up being very poor decisions from the officials, but the Heat, unlike Indiana, didn't do any talking about that and are simply focusing on Game Six and closing the series.

The other major talking point of Game Five was Lance Stephenson and his antics during the entire evening, one that may come back to bite him on the backside after he was caught blowing in James' ear.

With the pent up disappointment of Game Five that saw James log a Play Off low in minutes and points, I can see him reclaim his place on the throne with a huge performance in Game Six.

Can Paul George really replicate his performance from Game Five that saw the Pacers stave off elimination? I think it would be much harder when he is mentally trying to keep up with James and I also like to remember how close Miami came to winning Game Five even without their best player on the court for much of it.

I tweeted that Miami will blow Indiana out in Game Six after the third quarter of Game Five because of all the poor decisions that went against them and James sitting for all but 13 minutes to that point- the last couple of days haven't seen me change my mind.

Western Conference Finals Pick and Preview

San Antonio Spurs (1) v Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The Western Conference Finals should be very good fun to watch, although I think the key injuries on both sides of the court are going to cast a shadow over the series. The Oklahoma City Thunder look like they will be missing Serge Ibaka for the rest of the Play Offs and that will only put more pressure on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to take over offensively.

On the other hand, the San Antonio Spurs are going to have a limited Tony Parker who should take to the court in Game One of the series, but who is going to have to look after the hamstring that forced him out of Game Five of the Semi Final series win over the Portland Trail Blazers.

It is a difficult series to predict because the Thunder have the two best players on the court, as far as I am concerned at least, but the San Antonio Spurs have a deeper rotation that can provide a spark and are a better unit.

I think the absences of Ibaka is going to be critical for the Thunder who have dominated San Antonio in recent games in the series between the teams. However, without another scorer on the court besides Westbrook and Durant, Gregg Popovich is likely to find the formula to force enough stops and then find the hot hand on the offensive side of the court.

Danny Green, Patty Mills, Kahwi Leonard or Marco Belinelli are all capable of going off from outside the three point perimeter and the Spurs may just get their rematch with the Heat that they have wanted ever since last season.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in Seven Games


Monday 19th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game One Pick: Oklahoma City's speed and athleticism goes against the San Antonio experience and proven system and this should be a fascinating Conference Finals. The loss of Serge Ibaka may just have swung the pendulum in favour of the San Antonio Spurs, but I also can see Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson causing big problems for Tony Parker and testing the hamstring out to the full.

The Thunder have also had a strong recent record against San Antonio which will give them a boost in confidence for the series.

Game One should be a close one to call with both teams able to go on scoring streaks but I think Oklahoma City are being given a little too many points in the point spread market. They have found a way to deal with San Antonio over the last couple of years and I expect this series to be similar to the one the Thunder played against the LA Clippers with games likely to be very close throughout.


Wednesday 21st May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Two Pick: It was a largely impressive performance from San Antonio in Game One of this series and I am not sure what adjustments Oklahoma City can make in time for Game Two. The absence of Serge Ibaka was always going to be instrumental in the series, but I still think it was surprising to see the Thunder give up the paint as much as they did in Game One.

That only opened things up for the Spurs to get their three point shooting going and I think there isn't enough Oklahoma City can do defensively to change things with just one day between games.

The Thunder might have to resort to the small line up that gives them a real offensive identity, but also means they may struggle defensively, and I will back this game to finish above the total points line that has been set.


Sunday 25th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Three Pick: I am of the belief that this series is dead in the water unless Serge Ibaka has made a miraculous recovery and not just takes to the court, but is also at his best to keep the San Antonio Spurs from doing what they want for a third game in a row.

If Ibaka sits again, the Spurs are going to be incredibly difficult to stop if they continue hitting their shots from the three point mark and dominate the paint as they have in the first two games of the series. This is leading to foul trouble against Oklahoma City, who also need to find a consistent third scorer on the court from one of the role players to turn this series around.

Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook also need to be more efficient with the points they are scoring, but both are dealing with a San Antonio defensive scheme that is effectively playing 5 on 2 basketball.

If they can't get another playing going, this is going to be an incredibly short series, but I feel the Thunder are going to have recouped and come out in a better manner than they finished Game Two. Whether that is enough to win the game is another matter and the layers aren't quite sure either as to which way this game goes.

However, I expect more scoring from Oklahoma City which could help this game head over the total points set.


Tuesday 27th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Four Pick: The return of Serge Ibaka in Game Three highlighted why his presence is so important for Oklahoma City on both ends of the floor- he finished with 15 points on the offensive side of the court, but added 4 blocks defensively and also clogged up the paint where San Antonio had made hay in the first two games of the series.

It also showed why the Thunder have such a strong record against San Antonio over the last couple of years as their athleticism and length caused problems for Tony Parker and the outside shooters that the Spurs rely upon.

I do think the Spurs are going to play better in Game Four than they did in Game Three, but I also have a lot of respect for the fact that Oklahoma City have dominated them at home in recent games in the series.

With another big performance from Serge Ibaka, I think the Thunder find a way to level this series as it moves back to San Antonio in two days time.


Thursday 29th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Five Pick: When looking at this series, you can see a definite shift in momentum since the return of Serge Ibaka for the Oklahoma City Thunder and now they can really make that point with Game Five taking place back in San Antonio and the Spurs seemingly reeling.

Ibaka's return has shown why the Thunder have posed so many problems for San Antonio over the last couple of years and they improved to 6-0 with the big man in the starting line up and 0-2 without him.

There have to be some tension in the Arena today too as the fans will only be too familiar with the pattern of the series that is replicating the Western Conference Finals of two years ago that saw the Thunder come back from 0-2 down in the series and win four straight games to make the NBA Finals.

All four previous games have been won easily by whichever team has gotten away, but I think Game Five is so pivotal for both teams with the winner the clear favourite to win the Western Conference. That should have both teams focused, but I can't ignore how well Oklahoma City match up against San Antonio.

With Ibaka in the line up and Reggie Jackson cleared after turning an ankle in Game Four, all the momentum is with the Thunder and I am going to take the points on offer and look for them to make this a very close Game Five, even a game that Oklahoma City could win outright.


Saturday 31st May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Six Pick: There was a feeling that the Oklahoma City Thunder were a little fatigued when they were blown out in Game Five on Thursday and now they face an elimination game at home against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Miami Heat will be resting up at home in the hope that this series is extended to Game Seven, which is scheduled to be played on Monday (three days before the NBA Finals are due to begin), and the Heat may just get their wish.

Oklahoma City were able to rest their starters towards the end of the blow out in Game Five so I expect a fresher team to take to the court, while they have dominated San Antonio at home including blow out wins in Game Three and Four.

The concern is trying to slow down the momentum San Antonio picked up on Thursday as an adjustment in bringing in Matt Bonner to the starting line up opened up the shots for the Spurs. However, I think the Thunder will have at least one more big stand and I can see the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook duo finding a way to help the Thunder extend this to one more game.

MY PICKS: 18/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
19/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
21/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 211 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 208 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/05 Miami Heat - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5 Points  @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/05 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.20 Units

Conference Semi Finals: 12-10, + 1.36 Units
First Round Final: 22-19, + 2.02 Units

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (May 13-16)

The domestic football season is about two weeks away from finishing off and the attention will soon turn to the World Cup in Brazil which begins in a little over a month from today.

During this week, we will see the Europa League Final and also a couple of the Play Off Finals in the lower Leagues in England set for the week on Saturday.


It was a surprisingly tough final day in the Premier League for the picks, although it was a late goal from a Fulham youngster and a Sergio Aguero miss from two yards with the goal gaping that prevented it being a very good day.

The good news is that there wasn't too much damage done to the totals for the month thanks to Derby County's success in the second leg of their Play Off Semi Final.


Leyton Orient v Peterborough United Pick: I picked the first leg to have some goals and a little better finishing from Leyton Orient would have certainly seen at least three goals scored, but the 1-1 draw will also make the home team a strong favourite to move through to the League One Play Off Final.

However, Peterborough United have proved their capabilities against Leyton Orient already this season by winning at Brisbane Road and they are a dangerous team that can't be under-estimated considering the amount of goals they do score.

The weather in London might bog down the pitch which could reduce the chances for goals, but these teams love getting forward and I would be surprised if there isn't at least three scored tonight.

I also considered picking Leyton Orient to win a game where both teams score which looks a huge price considering the way games have gone when these teams have met this season, but I am going to stick with just picking the home team to win at odds against.


Rotherham United v Preston North End Pick: If it wasn't for a truly special goal from Joe Garner in the first leg of this Semi Final, I don't know if I would have fancied Preston North End to break down Rotherham United and I believe the home team in this second leg will prevail.

Rotherham have been playing very well at home in recent games and they do score plenty of goals which could make it tough for Preston North End to keep up with them.

The fact that Preston have come off the boil to the extent of losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the League doesn't bode well for them. However, Preston can be tough to beat and that does raise some doubts about backing the home team.

On the other hand, Preston have been beaten at Peterborough United, Wolves, Brentford and Swindon Town on their travels this season and those teams were four of the top seven in the campaign. Goals also change teams approach, especially in a close tie like this one and I have a feeling that Rotherham United can score first and then counter-attack their way into the League One Play Off Final next weekend.

MY PICKS: Leyton Orient @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Rotherham United @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

May Update: 9-12, - 0.60 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.58% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (May 10-12)

The final round of Premier League football in the 2014 season is going to be played on Sunday as most of the issues have already been decided in the last seven days with all three relegation teams knowing their identity as well as all four Champions League participants.

Of course, Manchester City still have to earn at least a point from their final League game to finish as Champions, while Tottenham Hotspur need a point or Manchester United to fail to win at Southampton to confirm their place in European competition.

It does mean that the television cameras don't have two games of real drama that they can put on the screens for football fans, although you just don't know what the Premier League will throw up on any given weekend.


While there may not be as much big moments in the final Premier League games, the Play Offs in the lower Leagues will continue as we have the Championship Play Off Final being set by Monday evening and the start of the League One and League Two Play Off Semi Finals too.


The Spanish La Liga has also produced plenty of twists and turns in the last week as Real Madrid have somehow blown a huge opportunity to win the title and Barcelona are suddenly looking like a team that has every chance of winning it all. That has all come about by Atletico Madrid's surprising 2-0 loss at Levante and could mean a 'winner takes all' match between the top two next weekend if both win as expected this weekend.


Peterborough United v Leyton Orient Pick: The away goals rule doesn't apply in the Play Offs so the tense first legs are not always the case as they are in the big Champions League/Europa League ties when conceding at home can be fatal.

The way both Peterborough United and Leyton Orient approach the game means the lack of away goals can allow both to play their football to the best of their ability. That freedom to play the natural game should make this an entertaining Play Off Semi Final and one that is likely to be left on tenterhooks for the second leg.

It is actually a hard first leg to call as both teams finished the season with some decent form behind them and both are capable of scoring plenty of goals.

When this Play Off was set, the first thing I envisioned was seeing goals in both legs so I was more than a little surprised that the over 2.5 goals was set at odds against. I am expecting both teams to get forward and try and take a commanding position in the tie, while both meetings during the League season were also high-scoring affairs.

Leyton Orient have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals in their recent away games, while Peterborough United found some form going forward at London Road. I can see both teams scoring at least once in this game but I also believe one of the teams will have a lead to take into the second leg.

I fancied Leyton Orient to win this first leg, but their recent away form means I will simply back there being at least three goals scored.


Preston North End v Rotherham United Pick: The consensus opinion when it comes to the first leg of Play Off/knock out ties is that they are going to be tense and tight battles and I can understand the thinking as neither team will want to be beaten before the second leg.

That really plays out where the away goal rule comes into play, but that isn't the situation for the League One Play Offs and that should enable both Preston North End and Rotherham United to be able to try and get forward and win the match.

Both will be confident with Preston losing the joint fewest home games and Rotherham winning the joint most away games this season, while both teams are capable of scoring plenty of goals. The 3-3 draw between the two teams at this venus three months ago shows what they are capable of, while the two draws this season shows it could be another close game.

Preston North End have scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 home games and they have scored three or more in 4 of their last 5 at Deepdale so they will put plenty of pressure on Rotherham. However, Rotherham will be aware that Preston have 1 clean sheet in their last 5 at home, while the side themselves have scored at least two away goals in 3 of their last 4 on their travels.

When putting that all together, it is hard to understand why the layers believe this could be a game with less than three goals shared between the teams and I will back goals in the second League One Play Off game on Saturday too.


York City v Fleetwood Town Pick: The layers can't separate York City and Fleetwood Town in this opening game of the League Two Play Offs and I am not surprised considering the form that the home side have shown for three months and Fleetwood's strong away record.

Much of the success of York City has come behind their defensive strength and that has shown through the season with only 15 League goals conceded at home. They have only conceded 2 goals in their last 9 League games at home and Nigel Worthington will feel confident that can give them the basis of a successful first leg.

However, York have a poor home record against Fleetwood and they have lost 3 in a row here against them, all without scoring, and the lack of goals in the home side have to be a concern too.

With the way recent York game have gone, it is no surprise the layers have shortened the odds for two or fewer goals scored, but I still think they are taking a chance with the offer of 1.85 that both teams do not score.

3 of the last 5 Fleetwood Town away games would have seen that pick ending up a loser, but those have been the exceptions generally, while one team has failed to score in 12 of the last 15 games at Bootham Crescent.


Fulham v Crystal Palace Pick: This is another dead rubber in a Premier League weekend full of them, but a London derby should always get the players and fans up for the battle and I expect that to be the case at Craven Cottage.

Fulham had been playing better at home in the last few weeks, but it came too late in the season to avoid relegation, while the 2-0 lead against Hull City that eventually turned into a 2-2 draw was the critical blow to that aim.

They have won 2 of their last 4 games at Craven Cottage, but are coming up against a confident Crystal Palace team that have been effective defensively and have the pace going forward to cause plenty of problems.

The lack of motivation in terms of position in the Premier League table would be a concern for Crystal Palace, but their performance against Liverpool shows there is a real desire that Tony Pulis has instilled into the side. With three away wins in a row to their name, a small interest on Crystal Palace winning here has to be the call at the odds.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: There might be a few disappointed fans that arrive at Anfield on Sunday as it looked like the long wait for a top flight title was coming to an end this season, especially after they beat Manchester City at Anfield with a late winner. One of their main players was even celebrating being 'Champions' in a bar after that game to the point of buying drinks for anyone in his vicinity, but a slip has given Manchester City the initiative.

While the fans might be a little downbeat, Liverpool players will want to end the season in the positive manner that has seen them come so close to winning the Premier League and also were exceeding the expectations set out. The Champions League was the aim, but not many would have tipped Liverpool to come so close to winning the title and that has to make the players proud even if they do come up short.

Anfield has proved a happy hunting ground for Liverpool who come forward in waves and with plenty of pace through the side. That is going to be tough for Newcastle United to deal with on current form, especially considering they have been beaten comfortably at Chelsea, Southampton and Arsenal in recent away games.

I am not sure how the Newcastle players are feeling with the rumours surrounding Alan Pardew's future as manager of the club and I think a number of their players have performed as if their holidays have already started.

They have even taken some heavy losses at home in recent matches with the likes of Everton and Manchester United securing heavy wins and I can see Newcastle perhaps dropping their heads if they become the latest team to concede early at Anfield. If that happens, I expect Liverpool go on and record a heavy home win even if that leaves them just short of their first title since 1990. 


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: The game on Wednesday night against Aston Villa would have given the fans something of a trial run as to how they are going to be feeling on Sunday afternoon at the Etihad Stadium with very little expectation of West Ham United setting out in a dissimilar manner.

Patience will be the key for Manchester City as they look to wrap up the Premier League title, but the return of Sergio Aguero gives them another clever, creative player that could make life difficult for West Ham to shut up shop.

Manchester City showed they will eventually wear down teams mentally when they are moving them around with the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Samir Nasri and now Aguero all capable of playing the magic pass that unlocks the toughest of defences. The other factor to consider is that West Ham United, no matter how much they protest otherwise, don't have a lot to play for and that means they can lose concentration with not a lot on the line.

That happened to Aston Villa as soon as they conceded to go behind and I would fear for West Ham if they were to concede early in this game as it could become a very long day in the office for them. West Ham United will also have some poor memories of facing Manchester City having conceded 12 goals against them in three games this season and I think there is too much attacking talent for Manchester City to blow this now.

They have also begun to score goals again and have hit at least two goals in their last 7 League games, while City have also scored at least three goals in 4 of their last 5 League games at the Etihad Stadium. I would expect Manchester City to perhaps get away with this game as they did on Wednesday night if they go ahead and I fancy them to win big again and pick up the title for a second time in three years.


Southampton v Manchester United Pick: As a fan, the late fixtures are those that are especially important to determine how difficult finishing with titles could become, and that has been the case for Manchester United over the last two decades. In June, I was thinking a trip to Southampton could be a tough place to try and win a Premier League title if it got that far, but there was no way anyone could have predicted the season we have seen.

A long, gruelling season is coming to an end on Sunday and the excitement of the next few months will begin as many changes are expected to be made by the new manager, which looks like being Louis Van Gaal.

For now, Ryan Giggs will look to make it 3 wins from 4 games as interim manager, but I imagine he may pick a starting eleven that has a blend of youth and experience as he did against Hull City on Tuesday evening. That might give Southampton the edge in the game as they are also a side that likes to get forward, although it will be interesting to see how the players and manager cope in what could be the last games for the club for Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw and manager Mauricio Pochettino.

However, both teams can play with the freedom that comes with knowing there is nothing to lose from the game and I can imagine it is a fun one for the fans in attendance. There are goals in both teams and neither team has been involved in too many low-scoring games in recent home/away games respectively.

Before the 1-1 draw this season, the last 8 games between Manchester United and Southampton had also seen at least three goals scored, including both last season, and I will back that to happen on Sunday.


West Brom v Stoke City Pick: It will be interesting to see how West Brom respond to the fact that their manager is likely to be leaving at the end of this game and that could make it a tough afternoon for them with the uncertainty surrounding the club.

The fact that this game is being played at the Hawthornes should give West Brom plenty of motivation to perform, but the visit of Stoke City has not been much fun for the locals in recent seasons.

Stoke City have won 4 in a row at this ground and 5 of their last 6 when visiting this part of the Midlands and they will be confident of the way they have been playing. However, they remain a team that struggles to win games away from the comforts of the Brittania Stadium and that does reduce my enthusiasm for backing them to win here.

I do believe that Stoke City are the right side to back considering the odds on them to win the game, which are far higher than I anticipated, but I will just make sure it is only a small interest on the away win.


Derby County v Brighton Semi Final Second Leg Pick: The win at the Amex Stadium has given Derby County a very strong advantage in this Semi Final and I think it is going to be very tough for Brighton to turn this around from this position.

The biggest problem for Derby may be whether the Rams are struggling with the 'stick or twist' nature of a 2-1 lead, but I think they will find it hard to curb the attacking instincts that have seen them score so many home goals. I also think they will be very dangerous on the counter-attack and it might be too much for Brighton to avoid a fourth straight defeat to Derby County this season.

Brighton know they have to win here if they have any chance of making it through to the Play Off Final and that could lead to some desperate scenes as they chase the game which should give Derby the opportunity to put them away.

With 5 straight home wins behind them and plenty of goals going in, I will back Derby County to win again in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Peterborough United-Leyton Orient Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Preston North End-Rotherham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
York City-Fleetwood Town Both NOT to Score @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (3 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 (4 Units)
Southampton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 3.60 Coral (1 Unit)
Derby County @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

May Update: 6-6, + 4.86 Units (19 Units Staked, + 25.88% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (May 6-9)

The Premier League took a remarkable turn at the top and the bottom of the table this past weekend and I doubt anyone would have predicted the way Liverpool were going to collapse in their game at Selhurst Park on Monday.


On Saturday, Cardiff City and Fulham both had their relegation confirmed thanks to Sunderland winning at Old Trafford and Norwich City were essentially confined to life in the Championship the following day when they failed to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Those results have taken away some of the drama at the bottom of the table for the final day and Norwich City could have their relegation confirmed as soon as Wednesday evening depending on the result in the Sunderland game against West Brom.


Manchester City also franked their tag as favourites with a 2-3 win at Everton on Saturday and the title race came down to two teams when Chelsea couldn't score the goal to win the game against Norwich at home.


It looked for all the world that Liverpool were going to shift the pressure back onto Manchester City as they went 0-3 up at Crystal Palace on Monday as all the commentators began wondering if they could also make a big dent in the goal difference which stood 9 goals in City's favour at kick off.

As Liverpool pushed forward for more goals and the clock was about to tick into the 79th minute, something remarkable happened from the home team that saw them score three goals in eight minutes. The draw left the likes of Luis Suarez sobbing on the pitch at the full time whistle, while the fans couldn't contain themselves in the stand either as the best chance in 24 years to win the top flight title looks to have slipped from the Liverpool grasp.


It isn't all over just yet with Manchester City having to earn four points from their final two home games and the only way they can ease the pressure is by winning on Wednesday against Aston Villa. This also means the final day drama that the television companies were salivating over may not be as critical as they would have hoped and you can just imagine all the top executives at Sky TV will be desperate for City to fail to win on Wednesday.

Personally, I think it would take some sort of epic collapse from City to fail to win either of their last two games, let alone fail to win both of them, but until it is mathematically impossible for Liverpool to win the League, there will be some excitement perhaps to come.


This week we will see the start of the Play Offs in the lower Leagues in England and also the remaining three 'make up' games in the Premier League which comes to a close on Sunday. This weekend proved to be one with a number of surprising results throughout Europe, a situation that can occur with the holidays and World Cup fast approaching to distract players that may not have a lot left to play for, or for those that are in the pressure-filled situations of trying to win League titles/avoid relegation.


Manchester United v Hull City Pick: It has been a long season for Manchester United fans visiting Old Trafford, but they get their last chance to do that until August and I expect a better performance than the one they produced against Sunderland on Saturday.

It was clear that the game meant more to Sunderland than it did for Manchester United who continued to play at a tempo that hasn't been the norm for the side over the last quarter of a century. A lack of ideas in the final third has been another issue for much of the season and once again it was a frustrating afternoon for the home fans.

This game should be a little easier to deal with for Manchester United as they are playing a Hull City team that have looked out of sorts since reaching the FA Cup Final. Steve Bruce is adamant that the side cannot perform as poorly as they did against Aston Villa and use the Cup Final as an excuse, but that is often the case with nothing to play for in the League and with such a big game coming up.

Hull have conceded too many goals in recent games and the return of Robin Van Persie should give Manchester United a threat going forward. However, they have to show more creativity going forward and that is tough to really believe in for United fans with the way a lot of the games at Old Trafford have gone.

Even with that in mind, Manchester United have scored four goals in 3 of their last 5 games in the Premier League and I can see Hull City perhaps struggling with nothing to play for. The players could easily be looking after themselves with the Cup Final in mind rather than going into every challenge on the football field and that may give United enough of an edge to win this game by a couple of goals.


Manchester City v Aston Villa Pick: Liverpool's loss of concentration and collapse at Selhurst Park on Monday must surely have had the Manchester City players bouncing in training on Tuesday morning and I expect they will bring that onto the field on Wednesday in this game in hand.

The absence of Sergio Aguero is always a blow to Manchester City, but Yaya Toure, David Silva and Samir Nasri are all capable of creating chances for Edin Dzeko up front and I expect the side to put Aston Villa on the back foot from the kick off.

The recent draw with Sunderland here will also focus the players so I don't expect Manchester City to take their foot off the pedal and allow Aston Villa to sneak into the game. Liverpool's collapse from 0-3 up will be another motivational tool for Manuel Pellegrini in asking his players not to let up if they have the lead in this game and I expect Manchester City to really put themselves in a commanding position in the League table.

Aston Villa are a dangerous away side as they have pace and enjoy trying to hit teams when they come onto them, but they are missing Christian Benteke and Gabby Agbonlahor is a doubt so they might not have as much bite as usual. They also confirmed their place in the Premier League on Saturday and may just be relieved to the extent that they are maybe 5/10% below their usual level on Wednesday.

They were beaten heavily at Manchester United and Swansea in recent away games, while Manchester City have outscored Aston Villa 16-2 in their last 4 Premier League home wins against them. With the boost given to the team by the Liverpool result, I think Manchester City might be able to push forward and record a big win on Wednesday that will give them one hand on the Premier League trophy.


Sunderland v West Brom Pick: If this game was being played in another League, one that may not have the same code of professionalism as the Premier League claims to have, the price on this game being a draw would be a lot shorter than what is being quoted for this game.

Let's face facts for a minute- a draw would suit both of these teams down to the ground as both would then be safe from relegation on the final day of the season. That isn't to say either manager will set out to play for the draw, but I can see the last twenty minutes being one of slow tempo if there is a stalemate and neither team will really push for the winner in my honest opinion.

Sunderland certainly won't want to risk losing the game and have the pressure of needing a result against Swansea on Sunday so I can see Gus Poyet setting them up to be difficult to beat. West Brom also want to finish the season with some positive results and won't want to risk another away defeat in the Premier League.

Add the fact that Sunderland have won just 2 of their last 11 home Premier League games and West Brom have won just 2 of their last 15 away Premier League games and the draw that does so much for both teams might be the most likely result.


Brighton v Derby County Pick: All four teams in the Championship Play Offs will be quietly confident of their chances of getting through to the Premier League so I imagine the Semi Finals are going to be very well contested.

Brighton will feel they have nothing to lose having scored an injury time winner the City Ground last Saturday to make their way through to the Play Offs, while the experience of being at this stage twelve months ago should be an important factor for them. They have been very tough to play in front of their own fans, but will also know that they probably need a lead to take to the Midlands if they are to make it past the stage they were beaten at last season.

That could play into the hands of Derby County who have a fast, attacking team that can score plenty of goals at home and away as they have shown through the 46 game season. That has been even more impressive since Steve McClaren took over from Nigel Clough and the former England manager has admitted that he has no reason to ask his players to take a backwards step in the Play Offs.

McClaren realises the team have played well with the tactics they are used to and he won't be changing that at this important time of the season and I can see Derby County being a little too good for Brighton over the two legs.

At the price, I think Derby County look a big price to win at the Amex on Thursday night considering their away form for much of the season. The goals in the side are going to be hard for Brighton to replicate and a small interest on the away side looks the call.


Wigan Athletic v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Both Wigan Athletic and Queens Park Rangers can't really point to a lot of positive form heading into the Play Offs and you can understand why they are considered bigger underdogs than Derby County when it comes to promotion.

However, both squads are full of players that have Premier League experience and there is plenty of quality to think that any slump can be forgotten in time for the next two and half weeks where so much can be achieved.

Their two League matches against one another have been very closely contested this season and it would be a surprise if this one is any different with the tension that the two relegated sides from last season will feel. Neither team will want to spend another year in the Championship as the longer they are out of the top flight is that much more difficult to return to the top flight.

With that in the back of the mind of the players, caution could take over and make this a very tense Semi Final to be competed in the next few days. Queens Park Rangers have been very poor away from home in the League over the last few weeks, but Wigan Athletic have not been pulling up trees in front of their own supporters either.

Therefore, a small interest in the draw from the first leg of the Semi Final looks a decent shout.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (4 Units)
Sunderland-West Brom Draw @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Derby County @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Wigan Athletic-Queens Park Rangers Draw @ 3.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

May Update: 2-5, - 4.04 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.67% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2012

I didn't post up my picks for Saturday's games in the Divisional Round as I wasn't overly convinced about either, but it turned out they went 1-1 (picked Denver on the spread and over 45 points in the San Francisco game).

Both games surprised me yesterday- I was completely bamboozled by John Fox's decision to NOT let Peyton Manning throw the ball and engineer a late drive to put the game to bed, although it wasn't the Head Coach's fault that Raheem Moore took the worst angle possible as a Safety in allowing Baltimore to tie the game with 31 seconds left.

I also thought the San Francisco game would be much closer, but I guess Colin Kaepernick had seen what Joe Webb was able to do against the Green Bay Packers last week and he just took it to the next level. Kaepernick was brilliant, making some clutch throws and the correct decision when to run and when to put the ball into the hands of Frank Gore.

The dominant performance of the San Francisco team also confirmed that Jim Harbaugh was right to make the change from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick and I am beginning to think this will be the team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season.

Harbaugh Bowl is still a possibility in the big game, but I am still holding sway with New England in the AFC, particularly as they will have home field advantage in both games left if they win out.


Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I really am not a big fan of when one team is being favoured in all quarters, yet they are still being given points as the layers are generally not silly people.

However, there are so many elements of this game that are favouring the Seattle Seahawks that I have to say the points are too appealing to ignore.

Seattle are going to be able to run the ball against the Atlanta Falcons and they should be able to keep Russell Wilson in short yardage situations throughout the game. Marshawn Lynch and Wilson both provide the ammunition to run the ball straight at Atlanta and the Falcons have not been good against the rush all season.

The lack of pressure they get from their Defensive Line will be another issue for Atlanta and Wilson will have time to find receivers downfield and the Quarter Back has looked after the ball enough to think Seattle are going to score at least 21-24 points in this one.

That'll put the pressure on Matt Ryan who has yet to win a Play Off game and who has seen his team beaten heavily in their last 2 Play Off appearances against the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants.

Ryan is going to be under pressure from a Seattle Defense that has got a lot of pressure on opposition Quarter Backs, while the match up again is in the Seahawks favour. The Seattle Secondary is capable of taking away Roddy White and Julio Jones just enough to force Atlanta to settle for field goals or having to punt the ball away and that is mainly because they will become one-dimensional with their Offense.

It is possible to find some running lanes against Seattle, but Michael Turner may not be the Running Back to expose those flaws and that will mean Matt Ryan is left in long yardage situations and have to move the chains with his arm.

I can see a big turnover going in favour of Seattle in this one and I'll take the field goal worth of points in this one. However, I am limiting my interest simply because this isn't the best spot in terms of time and having to play on the East Coast for Seattle.


Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: I hate big spreads in the Play Offs and I guess I haven't learned my lesson from the Denver Broncos game last night as I am going to back the New England Patriots to win this one and cover the 9.5 point spread.

This pick isn't solely because New England are at home where they absolutely smashed Houston to bits in the regular season, but mainly because I think the Patriots are going to be very tough to stop when they have the ball and they have too many weapons for the Texans Defense.

For Houston to have any chance in the game, they have to get Arian Foster going in a similar manner to how he went off against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. The whole Houston Offense is based on the fact that they can get the run established and that opens up the play-action for Matt Schaub, a Quarter Back that can struggle when the pressure is on him to drop back and find receivers in regular formations.

The problem for the Texans is that New England have been very stout against the run this season and Aqib Talib is good enough to at least restrict Andre Johnson in the passing game. If those two players do not get it going, Houston just aren't going to keep up with the Patriots.

I am expecting Tom Brady to dissect this Houston Defense again, especially with Rob Gronkowski back in the line up. While Houston are healthier on that side of the ball, New England have enough weapons that cause match up problems, particularly the two Tight Ends, and they should be able to move the chains fairly comfortably.

The Patriots also have a solid rushing game to complement Brady and they will find running room if Houston decide they are going to drop men into coverage to stop the aerial threat. This should all in all lead to more touchdowns rather than field goals and I like the Patriots to cover.


MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

English Play Off Finals

I am going to use this one post for my English Play Off Finals that are to take place over the next 8 days starting with the Championship game on May 19th.


Blackpool v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14301-Blackpool-v-West-Ham.htm)

Huddersfield v Sheffield United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14344-Huddersfield-v-Sheffield-United.htm)


MY PICKS: West Ham to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Huddersfield-Sheffield United Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

English Football Play Off Second Leg Picks

With the football season just about going through its final moments for the 2011-12 season, I figured I would keep this one thread for the English Play Offs that are taking place in the lower Leagues for the rest of the week.

Either tomorrow or Wednesday, I will begin working on my 'thoughts of the season' post and will give you my take on how each Premier League team performed as well as handing out some awards for significant achievements like 'Manager of the Year', 'Team of the Year' and so on.

Later in the week, I will break down the Champions League Final and give my 'keys to the game', while also writing up a full preview of the game.


Sheffield United v Stevenage Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14253-Sheffield-United-v-Stevenage.htm)

Southend v Crewe Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14278-Southend-v-Crewe.htm)

Torquay United v Cheltenham Preview (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14286-Torquay-United-v-Cheltenham.htm)


MY PICKS: Sheffield United-Stevenage Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crewe + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Torquay United-Cheltenham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

English Football Midweek Picks (May 1-4)

This is the post I will use where the previews of the games in the Premier League as well as the First Leg of the Championship Play Off games will be posted.

Any time I add new previews, I will post a link to it as normal.

Hopefully later on Tuesday, or perhaps Wednesday, I will post up a few thoughts on the last weekend in the Premier League as well as my thoughts on Manchester United and the title race.


Liverpool v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14039-Liverpool-v-Fulham.htm)

Stoke City v Everton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14040-Stoke-City-v-Everton.htm)

Chelsea v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14067-Chelsea-v-Newcastle-United.htm)

Bolton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14064-Bolton-Wanderers-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)

Cardiff City v West Ham United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14087-Cardiff-City-v-West-Ham.htm)

Blackpool v Birmingham City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14088-Blackpool-v-Birmingham-City.htm)


MY PICKS: Liverpool-Fulham Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stoke City Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United + 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Panbet (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Blackpool-Birmingham City Score Draw @ 7.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NFL Divisional Round Play Offs (January 14-15)

I will post up all the plays from the Divisional Round of games taking place this week- personally I think we are going to see a lot of good games in this Round.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12976-Denver-Broncos-at-New-England-Patriots.htm)

New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I like the San Francisco 49ers to cover the spread at the very least tonight for the following reasons:

First, the New Orleans Saints are not the same team when you take them out of the Superdome and get them dealing with the elements outside.


Second, San Francisco will be looking for revenge after New Orleans destroyed them with blitzes in a pre-season game, something they have clearly not forgotten about.


Third, how about this for a statistic? Teams that have scored 40 points or more are just 3-18 against the spread in their next game.


The key for San Francisco will be trying to finish drives with TDs rather than FGs and also trying to create pressure on Drew Brees, just like St Louis did in the biggest surprise of the season as far as I am concerned.


I think the Saints can be got at Defensively, so I think the 49ers will keep this game close enough to cover, if not win outright.


Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12983-Houston-Texans-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is easily the game of the weekend in my humble opinion and I like the Giants, after much consideration, to cover the spread in a shoot-out for the following reasons:

First, they are full of confidence right now after pushing the Packers all the way at home and they are playing with a bit of swagger having been in Play Off mode for the past two weeks (beating Dallas in Week 17 was essentially a Play Off game as the loser went home).


Second, the Giants have a front 4 that could at least pressure Aaron Rodgers and cause some problems for them, even if the Secondary can give up the big play.


Third, the Packers Defense is definitely susceptible to the big play and being passed on and I cannot see how they will stop Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz consistently enough to keep the Giants from scoring.


Fourth, the road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between the teams.


Fifth, Play Off teams are just 12-20 against the spread when coming in off a bye week (New England and San Francisco have that at 2-0 following their wins yesterday).


I am looking forward to seeing a high scoring game with the team that has the ball last being the one to win the game... I can't really see the Packers losing at home, but to give the Giants more than a TD looks too generous to me (famous last words?)


MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

NFL Wild Card Weekend (January 7-8)

Time has been a real factor for me this week so I have not been able to write too much about the NFL coming into the Play Offs.

Below I have my picks for this weekend's slate of games:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12916-Cincinnati-Bengals-at-Houston-Texans.htm)

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12919-Detroit-Lions-at-New-Orleans-Saints.htm)


MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals + 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)