College Football Week 11 Picks 2021 (November 11-13)

Upsets in Week 10 have shaken up the College Football PlayOff picture, but the only change in the top four has seen the Ohio State Buckeyes move in ahead of the Michigan State Spartans, who were beaten.

The Big Ten Conference still has some twists and turns to come before the final two teams are decided, but you would have to say there is pressure on the Buckeyes, Spartans and Michigan Wolverines. All three play in the same Division, but you have to believe any two loss team will not be invited into the College Football PlayOff.

Over the next three weeks we will find out plenty about those three teams, but there is also some pressure on other teams in and around the top four. Alabama haven't looked that good in the last three weeks and a defeat in the SEC Championship Game, assuming they get there, would likely end their time in the top four, while the Oklahoma Sooners have yet to be respected by the Committee despite remaining unbeaten.

Week 11 is likely to shake things up a little more and you can read my selections below.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: A decision was made that the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons would be considered a non-Conference one, but it was still important for the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4). They rallied from a deficit in the second half of the final Quarter and were able to end the unbeaten season of the Demon Deacons, but it was also important for an underachieving North Carolina team to move to within one game of being Bowl eligible.

They would have needed a road upset in their final three games if the Tar Heels had been beaten in Week 10, but the rally gives them some confidence. However, this is a short week of preparation for Week 11 as they look to play spoiler for a Divisional rival, while keeping an outside chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game alive for one more week.

It is a long shot for the Tar Heels to say the least and they are heading to the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) who are narrowly ahead of the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Coastal in what is a very open Conference. The two teams that will be playing in the Championship Game are going to be very confident they can go on and win, but the Panthers have a little work to do if they are going to be taking part in early December.

They demolished the Duke Blue Devils in Week 10 and the big game for the Panthers may be the the one on deck against the Virginia Cavaliers which may end up determining the winner of the Division. There is extra preparation time for that game and things could become very complicated if the Panthers were to drop this game, but both losses have come at home this season and that leaves them potentially vulnerable with the next two both being played here.

I do think this could be a really fun game with Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett leading their teams and facing Defensive units that have holes in the Secondary to exploit, but the Panthers look to have an edge in the trenches over the Tar Heels and that may be key to the outcome of the game. Take nothing away from the two Quarter Backs mentioned who will be getting scouted by those in the NFL, but Football at all levels can be dominated at the line of scrimmage and the Pittsburgh Defensive Line may be able to outplay the North Carolina Defensive Line to separate the two teams on the day.

For much of this season it has been very difficult to run the ball against the Panthers Defensive Line and if they can make some plays at the line of scrimmage there will be real pressure on Sam Howell and the Tar Heels. They have been solid at establishing the run, but any time they are in third and long spots, the Panthers have the pass rush to get into the Quarter Back's face and force mistakes or to stall drives.

The Pittsburgh Offensive Line has not always opened holes up front, but they should have considerable success against this Tar Heels Defensive Line. North Carolina cannot sell out to stop the run with Kenny Pickett likely to carve up the Secondary, although the one concern for the Panthers is that they have suffered some injuries on the Offensive side of the ball and those players may not be able to suit up on the short week.

Pat Narduzzi will not want to take any risks with his players with what could be a ACC Coastal Division decider to come in Week 12, but his Pittsburgh team have every chance of surpassing the eight wins which have been the best they have managed in the Head Coach's time with the team. Keeping momentum through to the big game with Virginia is important and I do think Kenny Pickett will outplay Sam Howell thanks to a stronger support on the ground.

Games between these Divisional rivals have been well competed, but two years ago Pittsburgh did beat North Carolina by 7 points at home.

The Tar Heels are now 2-6 against the spread in their last eight on the road, while they are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten after a win. The team is also 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the underdog and now have to face a Panthers team that is 5-1 against the spread in their last six as a favourite.

Pittsburgh are off a blow out and this is a tough, short week, but I do think they can score enough points to win and cover here. It should be a fun game with a lot of scoring, but I am looking for the Panthers to nail down the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should lead to a win by a Touchdown at the least.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears Pick: There isn't much love for the Big 12 Conference at the moment with none of their teams Ranked inside the top seven of the College Football PlayOff Committee's latest release, but there is an opportunity for someone to impress in Waco in Week 11. The Oklahoma Sooners (9-0) are coming in off a Bye Week and they are the sole undefeated team in the Conference, but they have a big test in front of them against the Baylor Bears (7-2) who have massively overachieved so far this season.

It has been a mirror season to 2020 for the Bears who finished 2-7 in Dave Aranda's first season as Head Coach, but one more win will see them have the second highest win totals in a single season since 2015. The Bears may yet be targeting the 11 wins secured in 2019, but they will need to upset the Sooners in this one having dropped a disappointing game at the TCU Horned Frogs last week.

That defeat means the Bears will need help to make the Big 12 Championship Game, but their hopes rest on this game- a defeat likely means they will not be able to finish in the top two of the Conference, especially having already lost to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and that should mean the Bears are ready to bounce back from a loss.

However, it won't be easy against an unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners team that has to be feeling disrespected down at Number 8 in the College Football PlayOff Rankings. They do have a big chance to make a statement to the Committee with their remaining three games all looking like difficult ones on paper, but the Sooners should be motivated by the fact that no one seems to believe in them.

Coming in off a Bye Week could be a big advantage for the Sooners who have blooded Caleb Williams in at Quarter Back in place of Spencer Rattler who has had a surprisingly poor season. Caleb Williams has sparked the Sooners Offensively and I do think the Bye Week will make them even more dangerous ahead of the three tough games with Baylor, Iowa State and rivals Oklahoma State to come.

Much is going to start at the line of scrimmage and whether the Oklahoma Sooners can establish the run as well as their rivals the Cowboys did in a win over Baylor. The Bears Defensive Line cannot be underestimated, but they will be tested by the Oklahoma Offensive Line who have been dominant up front in recent games and that will only make things a little more comfortable for Caleb Williams at Quarter Back.

It will also be key to just slowing down any Baylor pass rush that may rattle the young Quarter Back, but Williams has dealt with all in front of him so far this season. Extra preparation time makes Caleb Williams very dangerous and the Baylor Bears have given up some big yards through the air which should mean the Sooners are able to move the ball up and down the field in Waco.

I would be surprised if the Sooners are able to blow out their hosts though and that is largely down to how effective Baylor have been Offensively. Only the very strong Oklahoma State Cowboys Defensive unit has been able to slow them down consistently and there is a balance to the Bears on this side of the ball which should give them a chance to challenge the Sooners.

There should be a balance to the way Baylor approach this game and that should at least mean the game is relatively close, although coming off a Bye should help the Sooners. The Bears have also lost their Associate Head Coach to the Texas Tech Red Raiders which may have disrupted some of the preparation for this game and I do think the Sooners will make the big plays to find a way to win this one by a Touchdown.

Baylor have lost seven in a row to the Sooners, but they have largely kept things very competitive and I do think that will be the case in Week 11.

They have a strong record as the home underdog which has to be respected, but the Sooners can begin to show why they belong in the top four of the College Football PlayOff Rankings by winning this one on the road.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: These teams may not be concerning themselves about the Big 12 Championship Game, but that does not mean there is a dead rubber taking place. The Kansas State Wildcats (6-3) have won three in a row to pull to 0.500 in Conference play and also secure their Bowl eligibility, while the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-5) are still chasing the wins to reach six for the season and make sure they are having the extra Bowl practices in December.

There is always a rivalry in Conference games with schools familiar with one another and holding bragging rights for another season is important. The Mountaineers have been able to do that in this series with five straight wins in the series and that includes winning their last two visits to Manhattan.

The Mountaineers Defensive unit did as well as they could to keep the team in the game in their loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but ultimately the team saw their two game winning run come to an end. They are likely going to need at least one upset in their final three games to have a chance of playing in a Bowl game, but West Virginia will believe there is enough about them to do that.

It is certainly a spot that may not be ideal for the Kansas State Wildcats having beaten rivals Kansas in Week 11 and having the chance to potentially play spoiler for the Baylor Bears next week. Motivation should still be high after the losses to the West Virginia Mountaineers in recent years, but the feeling is that this could be a Defensive battle and so there is plenty of points to get behind the road underdog.

West Virginia have to believe the effort of their Defensive Line has to improve if they are going to earn the upset with recent games seeing them worn down up front. The Wildcats have improved themselves and will feel they can get on top of the Mountaineers up front, and that could be key to actually seeing the home team win this game and cover the mark.

Balance is so important in Football and Kansas State have certainly found that Offensively which makes them very dangerous. Deuce Vaughn has been pounding the rock behind the Offensive Line very effectively during this three game winning run and that has opened things up for Skylar Thompson who is a vastly experienced Quarter Back at this level.

It is an area where the Wildcats will feel they can get on top of West Virginia and open the door for the victory over a team that has not been as effective outside of Morgantown as they have been in front of their own fans.

The line of scrimmage has been controlled by the Kansas State Wildcats on both sides of the ball and they will certainly feel they can prevent the Mountaineers having nearly the same balance Offensively as Kansas State can put together for themselves. It starts by clamping down on the run and forcing Jarret Doege to feel the pressure at Quarter Back.

So far this season it has been that pressure which has hurt the Mountaineers and their Quarter Back who has 11 Touchdown passes and 8 Interceptions. While there are some holes in the Secondary which can be exposed, Kansas State will feel they can tempt Jarret Doege into another mistake here and the Defensive unit can lay the foundation for another win.

Stopping the run will also mean West Virginia's Offensive Line needing to find Doege the time to throw down the field, but the Wildcats should be able to exert plenty of pressure up front. Again, that may lead to mistakes and rushed passes and I think the Wildcats will be able to snap their losing run to this rival with a strong win in Week 11 of the 2021 season.

The Wildcats are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten home games, while they are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite. With some strong plays at the line of scrimmage, I will look for Kansas State to win this game and cover the mark thanks to their balanced Offensive unit backing up the strong Defense we have seen in recent weeks.

Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Three of the top seven Ranked teams in College Football are housed in the Big Ten East and that means there is a big end to the regular season in store. The Michigan Wolverines (8-1) will believe that winning out this season may earn them a spot in the College Football PlayOff and they are finally playing big time Football games in November again.

The Wolverines are on course for double digit wins in a single season for the fourth time in the seven seasons under Jim Harbaugh and bouncing back from a sub-par 2020 has given the Head Coach some breathing room. A defeat to the Michigan State Spartans has ended the unbeaten season, but the Wolverines are still Ranked above their rivals and they can make a statement down the stretch with a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes to round out the season.

It is up to the team to make sure that is still an important game- a few weeks ago the trip to the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) looked like it could be a vital one in the Division, but the Nittany Lions are only 3-3 in Big Ten play this season. The team ended a three game losing run by beating the Maryland Terrapins in Week 10 and James Franklin will be looking for his team to have a strong end to the season when they get the chance to play spoiler for Michigan and Michigan State.

The Nittany Lions will have a difficult time in doing that this week as they have struggled to find the Offensive balance to just make things a little easier all around. The Penn State Offensive Line have not really been able to establish the run in the manner the Head Coach would have wanted and it is far from ideal to be in third and long spots against the Michigan Wolverines, even with the talent that Penn State have on the Offensive side of the ball.

Sean Clifford at Quarter Back and Jahan Dotson at Wide Receiver have shown a real chemistry, but the Michigan Secondary have been playing at a really high level. Performing from third and long spots in obvious passing Down and distance should only aid the Wolverines Secondary and the pressure generated by the Michigan pass rush should give Penn State's Offensive Line further issues.

No one can really expect Penn State to stall completely, but I do think Michigan have the Defense to match up well with this opponent and they should be able to give themselves a foundation for success.

Having a strong Defensive unit is obviously important for any team, but Michigan have seen a real improvement on the Offensive side of the ball which has helped propel them forward and in with a chance of reaching the College Football PlayOff for the first time. There are injury issues in the skill positions on this side of the ball, but Michigan continue to perform strongly and they should be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than Penn State in this one.

Firstly Michigan should be aided by the Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes up front in recent games and I do think the Wolverines will be able to establish the run against the Nittany Lions. Blake Corum has been a huge part of the Michigan rushing Offense and the Running Back could be missing, but Hassan Haskins is no back up and I expect the Wolverines to be in front of the chains for much of the day.

Cade McNamara has had a really good year at Quarter Back and he should be successful with his team able to run the ball with some efficiency. He has given Michigan a proper passing threat and shown off his talent in recent games and I do think the Wolverines will be able to keep things ticking along nicely as they look for a major road win.

Penn State have won the last two between the teams, but Michigan look to be the stronger team in 2021 and I think they can cover as the narrow road favourite. The favourite is actually 6-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series and Michigan look like they will have the superior Offensive output of the two teams.

James Franklin is a Head Coach I don't like opposing and especially not in the underdog role, but the Wolverines are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and they can remain on track in the Big Ten East with a vital win.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: The sole defeat suffered by the Oklahoma State Cowboys has come at the hands of the Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) and that keeps this team alive in the race for the Big 12 Championship Game. However, it is a difficult path for the Cyclones to travel if they are going to make that Championship Game having dropped a couple of Conference games already and they are likely going to need to upset the Oklahoma Sooners next week to have any chance.

With that in mind, you do have to wonder if they are looking past their opponent in Week 11 to the big game with the Sooners. It would be a big mistake knowing one more loss will be fatal to their chances, but you can't always blame players for doing so.

It is especially the case when you think the Iowa State Cyclones are going to be facing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4) who were blown out by the Sooners a couple of weeks ago. The Bye Week saw them perhaps surprisingly fire Matt Wells as Head Coach, especially as the Red Raiders have a winning record after back to back losing seasons, and preparation for this game may not have been as ideal as the team would have liked.

Avoiding another losing record and returning to a Bowl game is the goal for Texas Tech in the remaining three weeks of the season, but it is far from easy as they face the teams currently sitting in second through fourth in the Big 12 Conference in that time. A new Head Coach has been hired, but one who will not be taking over until the end of the season, and it feels like it could be a difficult month for Texas Tech.

Even with perfect preparation this would be a tough game for the Red Raiders who will be facing a solid Defensive unit that is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to hit the Red Raiders hard up front and force them to rely on the pass and Iowa State have shown they can do that against stronger teams than the one they will be facing in Week 11 of the season.

Most Big 12 teams are good enough Offensively to make some plays so this is unlikely to be a blow out in the manner that Iowa State put on Texas last week, but Texas Tech can't really get themselves in a shoot out either.

Unfortunately they might have some real issues stopping Iowa State from moving the ball at will and that is down to the balance that the Cyclones have shown with an improving Brock Purdy leading them from Quarter Back. The Texas Tech Defensive Line have made things a little tougher on the ground, but Iowa State will not be afraid to give the ball to Breece Hall at Running Back and he should at least find some creases to keep the team in third and manageable spots.

Brock Purdy is going to be the key though and he is facing a Red Raiders Secondary that have not been able to stop the pass in recent games and now have to face a confident Quarter Back. I expect Brock Purdy to have a big game and he should be able to set the Cyclones up for a big win ahead of the huge game with the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Cyclones have won the last five in the series and they are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games in Lubbock.

Texas Tech have been strong out of a Bye Week, but this has not been a normal one with the Head Coach being fired mid-season. The Red Raiders are just 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five games at home and I think the Cyclones can cover what is a very big mark.

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: There is still a chance for the Miami Hurricanes (5-4) to win the ACC Coastal Division and take part in the Championship Game, but they would have loved to have seen the Pittsburgh Panthers knocked off on Thursday night. That didn't happen, so the Hurricanes have to focus on themselves as they look for three wins to close out the regular season and see if that is enough to take them forward.

First up is a big rivalry game as the Miami Hurricanes make the relatively short journey to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles (3-6). The Seminoles have not really been able to recover from their 0-4 start to the season and they have lost back to back games heading into this Week 11 game and will be trying to cool off a Miami team who have won three in a row.

Being able to play spoiler for their in-State rivals should be motivation enough for the Seminoles, but they are facing a team that has not missed a beat since losing their starting Quarter Back.

There is some uncertainty as to who will be starting for the Seminoles after the blowout loss to the NC State Wolfpack in Week 10 and that is largely down to a virus, not Covid-19, that affected them. We have yet to really get any clarity as to how many players are ready to compete and being short-handed would hurt the Seminoles who have had a tough season anyway.

Florida State would love to have Jordan Travis back in the line up to offer a dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, but even without Travis the game-plan will be to run the ball and try and keep the Offense in front of the chains. Running the ball against Miami has been anything but easy though and there will be some real pressure on the Seminoles if they are not able to establish the ground game.

It would mean the Offensive Line is put under pressure from the Miami pass rush and that could see the Seminoles struggle for any consistency when they have the ball.

There are holes in the Miami Secondary which can be exposed, but I am not sure the Florida State Seminoles have the consistency to do that. However, it should mean they are able to have better Offensive success than they have enjoyed in the last couple of games when averaging just 17 points per game, but the Seminoles will also need their own Defensive unit to step up.

An injury to D'Eriq King looked like it would be setting Miami back, but they look capable of becoming Bowl eligible again and have to be excited by what they have seen by talented, young skill players. Tyler Van Dyke has taken over at Quarter Back and he has thrived in the system, while Miami have Jaylan Knighton back running the ball with real power.

The balance provided by these players makes Miami dangerous and I do think the Hurricanes will be able to have more Offensive success against a Seminoles Defensive unit that has been a little inconsistent. The Florida State Defensive Line will believe they can at least contain Knighton to some extent, but Tyler Van Dyke has looked really confident at Quarter Back and there is little to suggest that he can't have another big outing having already thrown 15 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions, while the passing yards have made his mark in the history books.

Miami have gotten the better of this rivalry in recent years and I do think they are capable of doing that again and keeping the pressure on the teams in and around then in the ACC Coastal Division.

The Hurricanes are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games at Florida State, while they have covered in their last four road games.

Florida State are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the underdog and I think the Miami Hurricanes can do enough to win and cover here.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The 'Spoilermakers' tag for the Purdue Boilermakers (6-3) has caught the headlines after yet another victory to ruin a season in Week 10 when beating the Michigan State Spartans. However, it would be wrong to suggest Purdue's sole motivation is to play spoiler for teams in their Conference as the team are one of four with an identical 4-2 record in the Big Ten West and who will be hoping to push their way into the Championship Game.

The losses to the Wisconsin Badgers and Minnesota Golden Gophers means Purdue will need to likely win out and hope other results go their way, but the Boilermakers know they have a very difficult test in front of them.

They will be heading to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) who currently hold one of the top four Ranking spots released by the College Football PlayOff Committee. However, the pressure is on the Buckeyes who know one more defeat will likely mean they are going to be ruled out of being involved in the PlayOff again and with two big games to come after this one against the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans.

You won't need to remind the Buckeyes that they can ill-afford to look past the Boilermakers though as they were beaten the last time these schools met in 2018. That defeat cost Ohio State a place in the PlayOffs despite being the sole loss they suffered that season and so there will be a focus in the home camp.

Ohio State have not really impressed in the last couple of wins against Penn State and Nebraska and this is a chance to show the rest of the nation that they are a one loss team that deserves to be involved in the National Championship discussion. Some of the issues that have perhaps hindered the Buckeyes is the lack of balance they have had Offensively, but that is not likely to be the case in this game.

The Offensive Line should be able to open some big holes against the Purdue Defensive Line and that will only make life easier for CJ Stroud who had over 400 passing yards in the win over the Cornhuskers last week. However, the Buckeyes would prefer their Quarter Back to manage the game as much as possible with those yards coming alongside 2 Interceptions and especially as CJ Stroud will be facing an aggressive Boilermakers Secondary.

I do think the Buckeyes will be able to run the ball and that is key to the outcome of this game with a huge spread in front of them.

Unlike Ohio State, Purdue's Offensive Line may not have things going their way up front and failing to establish the run against the Buckeyes could make it a very difficult day for them. Aidan O'Connell is coming off a monster performance against the Michigan State Spartans at Quarter Back, but it is not easy to imagine him replicating that without support from the run and I don't think he will have much of that.

The Buckeyes have been incredibly stout against the run in recent games and that has sparked a powerful pass rush that should be able to get after Aidan O'Connell in this one. The Quarter Back showed his poise in throwing for well over 500 yards in the upset of the Spartans in Week 10, but the Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive unit is another step up from that level and I can see this game getting out of hand for the Boilermakers if they fall behind by a couple of scores.

You can't dispute the fact that Aidan O'Connell will have some success considering his own performances of late for Purdue, but it may not be as consistent with a strong pass rush expected to get to him. That could lead to the mistakes that help the Buckeyes pull away and produce an impressive performance ahead of two big Divisional games as they look to secure a top four Ranking.

The last meeting between the teams may have been 2018, but stories will have been told of that day and Ohio State should be motivated for revenge.

The 'Spoilermakers' have been a very good underdog with Jeff Brohm at Head Coach, but the feeling is that there is more pressure on them this week with people 'expecting' them to be competitive. It should be close for a while and the backdoor could be open for Purdue, but the Buckeyes can showcase their own quality in a big win and a big cover.

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Missouri Tigers Pick: They have had just two winning seasons in six years and a new Head Coach was expected to need some time to get his ideas across to the players. With that in mind, the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-4) are absolutely overachieving in 2021 and they will be looking to become Bowl eligible with another victory and return to December Football for the first time since 2018.

While they have been overachieving, this has been a difficult season for the Missouri Tigers (4-5) who have not had a losing season since 2016, but who look like they are going to struggle to win the six games needed to become Bowl eligible. They are going to be the underdog in their remaining three games and Missouri need to win two of those, and it could be argued that this is their 'easiest' game left.

The Tigers were blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 10 and they are going to be up against a South Carolina team that have improved on the Defensive side of the ball after winning two of their last three games. Tyler Badie is going to be the key for Missouri and he has continued to run the ball very well, while keeping the Tigers in a position to have some success Offensively.

I expect there to be a heavy dose for Tyler Badie in this one as Missouri continue to have some difficulty in finding consistency out of the Quarter Back position. The Tigers Offensive Line should help Badie put together some decent numbers in this game, but the South Carolina Defensive Line have shown improvement the longer the season has gone on and that should mean they can at least force Missouri to have to make some plays through the air.

Connor Bazelak has been struggling with an injury and that has meant the Tigers have used a couple of players to split Quarter Back duties. They will need more out of that position if they are going to win this game, even if Bazelak is back in the line up, which is a possibility in Week 11.

The South Carolina Secondary have played well though and they will feel they can limit the damage through the air and coupled with the Defensive Line, this is a unit that can come together to stall drives and give themselves every chance of another win.

Offensively the feeling is that the Gamecocks will be able to pick up from where they left off in their upset blowout of the Florida Gators. They punished the Gators on the ground and the South Carolina Gamecocks are now facing a Missouri Defensive Line which has given up an outrageous amount of yards on the ground.

It can only be good news for Jason Brown at Quarter Back and I think he will have a relatively comfortable day trying to manage the game. He did that perfectly well in the win over Florida and with the Gamecocks likely to pummel out some massive yards on the ground, Jason Brown should be able to keep things ticking along for his team.

Missouri have won the last couple of games between these SEC East Divisional rivals, but the South Carolina Gamecocks look in a really good position to snap that run against them.

Being a slight road favourite is an unfamiliar position for the Gamecocks in recent years and that may have an impact on the team, but Missouri have not covered in any of their last seven home games. Recent performances suggest the Gamecocks can control the clock in this game through their ability to move the ball on the ground and I think that will see South Carolina reach the six win mark as they leave the Tigers on the brink of suffering a losing season.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The Gary Patterson era is over at the TCU Horned Frogs (4-5), but the players will not want that to be a distraction for them as they look to secure two more wins before the end of the regular season. They showed they are willing to dig deep despite the Head Coach leaving and the upset of the Baylor Bears has given the Horned Frogs a chance of earning a Bowl spot.

It remains a tall task for a team that has underperformed in 2021 and they will likely need to upset one of the Big 12 Championship game chasing teams on the road. First up for TCU is the Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) who control their own destiny when it comes to making the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially even earning a spot in the College Football PlayOffs.

Four wins are needed if the Cowboys are going to earn a PlayOff spot and they will be hard to ignore as two of those would likely need to be secured against the currently unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners. Mike Gundy will not allow his players to look too far ahead, but they have looked really good on both sides of the ball, although the sole defeat to the Iowa State Cyclones does leave the Cowboys vulnerable to missing out on the Championship Game if they were to lose any of their remaining three games.

So much of the successes the Cowboys have had this season is thanks to a very impressive Defensive unit that continues to play at a high level. Despite the experience in the Horned Frogs Offense, I do think the Oklahoma State Defense can largely contain their visitors and that should put them in a very good position to win and even cover a big spread.

Much of the power of the Cowboys is on the Defensive Line and I do think they can clamp down on the TCU Offensive Line and leave the Horned Frogs in a position where they will have to make plays through the air to keep the chains moving. In recent games, the Horned Frogs have not been able run the ball as well as they would have liked, and I do think Oklahoma State will shift the pressure onto the TCU passing game.

If TCU could turn to Max Duggan they may well have felt they have some chance, but instead it will be Chandler Morris at Quarter Back who is coming off a really big performance in the win over Baylor. Fans inside the Stadium won't forget his background though and being a former Sooner should motivate the Cowboys Defensive Line to make sure there is extra power in the pass rush that should be able to rattle Morris.

Chandler Morris is also going to be throwing into a very good Oklahoma State Secondary and I do think the Horned Frogs may struggle to move the ball as they did against Baylor. That was also a big emotional effort after seeing the long-time Head Coach depart the school and putting the same effort together for this game will be a big challenge.

Even with a powerful Defensive unit like the one the Cowboys have, this is a very big spread to cover and that is because they have not really had the same strength on the Offensive side of the ball. However, this could be a good match up for Oklahoma State who can hand the ball to Jaylen Warren with a belief in the Running Back to make some big plays on the ground against what has been a worn down TCU Defensive Line.

In recent games the Horned Frogs have given up some big plays on the ground I do think the Cowboys Offensive Line can control the line of scrimmage to give Warren the chance to keep the team in third and manageable spots.

Spencer Sanders has been tasked to look after the ball at Quarter Back and he has managed to do that for the majority of the season. The Quarter Back can still make plays with his arm though and he should be successful with the Cowboys likely to be in front of the chains and that should see Oklahoma State move the ball and score enough points to get over this mark as long as the Defensive unit continues to play at the elite level they are operating at.

Oklahoma State will also be motivated by revenge having lost to the TCU Horned Frogs in 2020 and the home team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series between two schools that may lead the Big 12 Conference when Texas and Oklahoma move on to the SEC.

The Cowboys have covered in their last seven games, while TCU are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog. Chandler Morris' connection with Oklahoma should be red rag to the Oklahoma State players and fans and I think the Cowboys will be motivated to make a big statement as they secure a strong win.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)

Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)

Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

2021 Season: 46-41-1, + 0.23 Units (88 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2019 (December 29th)

This is very much the time of the year that we all want to enjoy with families so this is a shorter NFL Picks thread than I have had for much of the season.

Any additional Picks will be placed in this thread on Sunday.


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The six places in the NFC bracket of the NFL PlayOffs have been decided, but the final Seedings are still up for grabs. That includes the Number 1 Seed in the Conference which will give a team the opportunity to reach the Super Bowl without leaving home and that has to be the target for the New Orleans Saints who look in a good position at 12-3.

A win on Sunday coupled with losses for the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers would guarantee the Saints the Number 1 Seed, but they have to make sure they focus on this one game and see how they land. Anything less than a win and the Saints could find themselves having to play on Wild Card Weekend next week and that has to be motivation enough for them.

I would expect the Carolina Panthers to want to try and play spoiler for their Divisional rival, but they dropped to 5-10 last week and have lost seven times in a row. In Week 16 they were beaten heavily at the Indianapolis Colts who destroyed Carolina in the Special Teams area, while the uncertainty surrounding the future of some members of the team and who will be the Head Coach is certainly not going to be helping things.

Last week the Panthers gave the ball to Will Grier to see what the young Quarter Back could offer a team that might be moving on from Cam Newton and who have not been convinced by Kyle Allen at that position. It was a very difficult debut for Grier who was not helped by anyone other than Christian McCaffrey, but relying on one special player makes it difficult for any team to produce a big performance.

The Panthers are going to lean on McCaffrey in this one and they will be encouraged by some of the big yards given up by the Saints Defensive Line throughout the season. Injuries on the Defensive Line have hurt New Orleans, but I am not sure there will be a big respect for what Will Grier will be able to do in the passing game and that means the Saints can concentrate on trying to shut down McCaffrey.

Janoris Jenkins has arrived in New Orleans to give them some additional support in the Secondary and I do think the Saints can limit what Grier is able to do through the air. The young Quarter Back won't have much success if the New Orleans Saints are able to force Carolina to fall behind the chains and get the pass rush ramped up against what has been a questionable Offensive Line for the Panthers to say the least.

Inexperience is not the word you would use with the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees looks to be peaking for another run at the Super Bowl. His last two performances have seen him snap Peyton Manning's record for Touchdown passes thrown in the regular season and he dominated a Tennessee Secondary last week to keep the momentum going.

There is no doubt that he is facing a pretty weak Defensive unit on Sunday in Week 17 and you have to wonder how the Panthers are going to slow down this New Orleans Offense. The Saints have not been particularly strong at running the ball in recent games, but Alvin Kamara had a big performance in Week 16 and he should be able to get something going against a porous Carolina Defensive Line.

I do think Kamara will have success and that is only going to open things up for the Saints when it comes to passing through the air. Michael Thomas is next to unstoppable and the balance that New Orleans should be able to find from an Offensive standpoint is likely going to put them in a position to win and cover this number, even if it is a very big one for a road team.

After covering last week, New Orleans have maintained their very good road record against the spread and I think they push ahead and earn another one here. They should be highly motivated to win and Carolina have a young Quarter Back who will make mistakes, while New Orleans are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to this NFC South Divisional rival.

No doubt this is a very big spread, but New Orleans should find a way to score enough points to cover.


Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: They are already on the clock as far as the NFL Draft is concerned and that should mean the Cincinnati Bengals can look to pull out all of the tricks to try and end this miserable season on a high. Andy Dalton is likely playing his last game at Quarter Back for the Bengals with the team expected to choose Joe Burrow with the Number 1 Overall selection in the Draft, while other players are going to be trying to prove to the team that they are capable of helping in the rebuild.

They should be motivated to get one over on their Divisional rivals Cleveland Browns in this Week 17 game and the Bengals have every chance of doing that against a team who look to be imploding from within.

Freddie Kitchens doesn't have the kind of respect you would think for a Head Coach at any level, while the top skill players don't particularly want to play for the Browns. Baker Mayfield has also been banged up and it makes it very hard to see them as the road favourite and see all of the public money that is coming down on them.

If Kitchens was a better Coach you may expect a game-plan that is going to feature a lot of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt whether running the ball or taking short passes from Mayfield and finding room to run. The Bengals Defensive Line have really been struggling to clamp down on the run and I do think Cleveland have been happiest when the Offensive Line is asked to block downfield and get Chubb or Hunt going.

That will also be important in keeping Mayfield in a position to try and make some plays through the air in what has been a difficult 2019 for the Quarter Back. He does have two very good Receivers in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr, but neither has been particularly happy and both believe their Quarter Back and the play-calling have not been getting the ball in their hands as much as they should do.

It is possible for both to have a very good game, but I think the health of Mayfield has to be questioned and the way they fell apart in the home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 has to be a concern. That would have meant a lot to Cleveland but they came up short and I am not sure whether they will care as much about beating the team with the worst record in the NFL.

The Browns won the first meeting between these teams, but it was a competitive game and I think this one can go the same way. Andy Dalton being back at the Quarter Back position has given the Bengals some fire and they will believe they match up well with the Browns Defensive unit which has been struggling massively.

Losing Myles Garrett would have hurt, but I also think a team who have lacked belief in their Coaching staff has not had the required effort needed on the field. Teams have been able to run all over Cleveland in their last three games and Joe Mixon has been ending the season with some momentum which can be summed up with a big performance from the Running Back in Week 17.

With Dalton back at Quarter Back, Cleveland can't just look to try and slow Mixon and hope they can shut down Cincinnati, especially as the Secondary have given up some big yards through the air. Again you have to wonder what the motivation for the Browns will be after a disappointing season and the way they have been performing down the stretch and I do believe Dalton can help lead the Bengals to a potential upset here.

Neither team has many trends they can write home about, but Cincinnati are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten against the Browns and I will take the points on offer with the home team.


Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: After the upset of Divisional rivals Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football, the Green Bay Packers improved to 12-3 and will be looking for another victory which should be enough to earn at least a Bye into the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs. There are still one or two questions surrounding the Packers which has many not really believing this is a Super Bowl team in the making, but the Packers keep winning games and will be difficult to knock off if Aaron Rodgers rounds into form.

They go into Week 17 as big road favourites to knock off the Detroit Lions who have had a disappointing 2019 season which has them going into the final game of the regular season with a 3-11-1 record. The Lions have lost eight in a row this season and they have lost starting Quarter Back Matthew Stafford to injury, although the lost season is not one that has worried the ownership enough to want to make Coaching changes.

We could yet see a change of opinion on that front, but for now the Lions are looking to try and stay the course with a system being put in place that will supposedly lead to successes in the years ahead.

It is hard to imagine seeing too many successes for them in this one game though as the regular season comes to an end for a team who have not performed to the level that was expected coming into the season. There had been some early hints that 2019 was going to be a big year for the Detroit Lions, but injuries have hurt the team and none more than losing Quarter Back Matthew Stafford.

In his place David Blough has been looking to impress with his ability as a starter, but it hasn't been the case for much of the time the Quarter Back has played. While there have been some good moments for Blough, the Lions have not scored more than 20 points in any of the four games he has started and now they have to face a Green Bay Defensive unit which has been one of the big strengths of a team at 12-3 for the season.

You can't just look at the Quarter Back and blame him for some of the Offensive issues, but the Lions have not been able to run the ball as they would have liked. Surprisingly Kerryon Johnson was back for the Lions at Running Back in Week 16 after missing multiple weeks through injury, but even with him back on the depth chart it won't be easy for the Lions to establish the run against a Green Bay Defensive Line which has held teams to under 4 yards per carry in their last three games.

David Blough has been somewhat inconsistent throwing the ball and won't be helped by the injuries which have shorn him of some of his big threats in the passing game. The Detroit Offensive Line has not really been able to help him with much pass protection so it looks unlikely that the two Smiths at Defensive End are likely to be causing havoc in the backfield for Green Bay. That pressure could lead to mistakes throwing against an improved Packers Secondary and the feeling is that the visitors will be able to limit the threat Detroit can pose Offensively.

There has to still be one or two questions about whether Green Bay could cover this kind of number with the lack of Offensive production we have seen for much of the season. The Green Bay Offense looks like it doesn't match up as well with the Detroit Defense as you may have thought with the team capable of running the ball better than they have been when it comes to throwing even with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back.

Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have been powerful runners behind this Offensive Line, but the Lions have been pretty stout up front down the stretch. At the same time they are giving up almost 300 passing yards per game in their last three games, although Aaron Rodgers has yet to have a really big performance in 2019 and has admitted he doesn't need to throw a bunch of Touchdowns for the Packers to be successful.

I do think Jones and Williams will have some joy on the ground, while both could be effective as Receivers coming out of the backfield. Aaron Rodgers may also find more time to throw down the field considering the lack of pass rush Detroit have been able to generate and I think that gives the Packers a chance of keeping the ball moving.

You have to believe the Lions are going to be highly motivated to try and play spoiler in their final home game of the season, but they do look short of what the Green Bay Packers bring to the table. The win on Monday Night Football in Minnesota has improved the very good trend of backing Green Bay in road games and I think they are going to have too much for Detroit with enough big plays on both side of the ball to pull away for a healthy win.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: There is no doubt that the Dallas Cowboys roster is better than the 7-8 record they hold in the 2019 season, but at least they still have one last shot to make the PlayOffs as NFC East Champions. After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, Dallas have lost control of their own fate, although the Cowboys can win and then hope for an Eagles loss to finish as the Division winner.

The loss to the Eagles did feel like the end of the world for some Cowboys fans and not many will expect them to have a reprieve here which means big questions for Jerry Jones to answer as soon as the season is concluded. Jason Garrett's role as Head Coach has to be something that is going to be challenged, but he has to focus on things that he can control and that means winning in Week 17 and see how the chips fall.

Last week the Cowboys did not look like they were comfortable with either the game-plan or some of the pain that their top players are dealing with. One of those was Dak Prescott who has been struggling with accuracy ever since he banged his shoulder and hand and I do think the Cowboys need to give him a better chance to keep the chains moving.

Dallas can do that if they keep things simple and we have been hearing all week that the team need to lean on the Offensive Line and get Ezekiel Elliot running the ball. It has baffled me for some time that the Cowboys have not been able to use Elliot more than they have in recent weeks, and it would be negligent on their part if they are not able to establish the run behind the Running Back.

In recent games the Washington Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run and Elliot should be able to make some big gains on the ground. That will make sure the limited Washington pass rush is just eased off, while keeping Dak Prescott in third and manageable will at least make it easier to target what is a very good Receiving corps.

Injuries in the Washington Secondary and on the Defensive Line has just left them susceptible to the pass and I think Prescott will be able to have a decent outing. Even then it can't be ignored that he has not been at his best as he plays through an injury and I think it has to be factored in that the Cowboys could pull the Quarter Back if the Eagles are up big in their game and Prescott is not at 100%.

The Cowboys are big favourites to win this game and I do think they are going to be able to move the ball well in this one, although covering this number won't be easy. They are facing a Washington Redskins team who have lost three in a row and who will be targeting the Number 2 Pick in the next Draft which could mean bringing in someone like Chase Young.

However Washington are going to want to give a Divisional rival something to think about in a game which means more to them than it does for the Redskins. Dwayne Haskins is out for the season, but Case Keenum will start for the Redskins at Quarter Back and he will want to remind teams looking for a stopgap at that position that he could be someone they want to think about bringing in.

Keenum is going to be able to hand the ball to Adrian Peterson to keep the Cowboys honest, but the holes in the Dallas Secondary won't be lost on him. I do think there is a lack of talent to support Keenum as Washington are already thinking about the 2020 season, but even then you would think the Redskins can have some success as long as their Quarter Back does not make the back-breaking mistakes which have blighted him throughout his career.

While they have not faced too many top teams, Washington have been very competitive in their last five games. They pushed the Eagles all the way in a 10 point loss a couple of weeks ago and the Redskins were very close to winning that game outright, while the experience of Keenum should keep them competitive in this one too against a Dallas team who have a losing record in case they are over-rated by some.

The last three games between these teams have been decided by ten points or less, and the Redskins are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven in Dallas.

Dallas have dominated the NFC East in recent games with a 14-3 record against the spread in their last seventeen against Divisional rivals. The Cowboys are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as a favourite though, while Washington are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog.

This looks a very big number considering the atmosphere that Dallas could be playing in and I do think Washington will do enough to keep this close enough to cover.


Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There was still a glimmer of hope for the Los Angeles Rams to make the PlayOffs going into Week 16, but the narrow loss to the San Francisco 49ers have ended their chances. They have had an additional day to prepare for the Week 17 game against another Divisional rival, although you will have to question how much motivation is still going to keep the locker room going after missing out on the post-season.

However the Rams could benefit from facing a struggling Arizona Cardinals team who have won two in a row, but who could be without a number of key players that have been limited in practice during the week. The Cardinals stunned the Seattle Seahawks on the road last week and they beat the Cleveland Browns as a home underdog in Week 15, but Arizona have a poor recent record against the Rams which is going to need changing.

That might not happen at the end of the 2019 season with Kyler Murray limited at Quarter Back after picking up an injury in Week 16. I have little reason to believe the Cardinals will risk their young Quarter Back in what is a meaningless game for them and that could mean Brett Hundley is starting for them in that position.

Hundley played well enough in relief of Murray last week, but this time he is going to be facing a strong Los Angeles Defensive unit. That may give the Rams a chance to try and crack down on Kenyan Drake and David Johnson when it comes to running the ball, although the Los Angeles Defensive Line has struggled to clamp down on the run all season.

We know the backup Quarter Back is not as strong as Murray when it comes to running the ball, but Brett Hundley is someone who can move the chains with his legs. It does make it feel like a game in which the Cardinals will be able to establish the run and at least give themselves an opportunity even with the injuries, plus it would be important to at least slow down the Rams pass rush.

If they are behind the chains Arizona will find it very difficult to convert drives into points. You do have to wonder about the Rams mindset off the back of a loss which has knocked them out of the PlayOffs, but this is a Secondary which has improved against the pass since Jalen Ramsey arrived. Unfortunately Ramsey is not playing for the Rams in Week 17, but that will be balanced off if Kyler Murray is limited or if Brett Hundley is starting for him.

It won't just been the Cardinals who will be using backups, but the same could be said for the Los Angeles Rams whose Head Coach Sean McVay admitted he will be resting anyone who is dealing with an injury. The Rams have nothing to play for, which means key players could be left out and that makes it hard to get a really good read on the game.

What can be seen is that the Arizona Cardinals Defensive unit have played well down the stretch, although they could be missing Chandler Jones for this game. If Jones can suit up, the Cardinals should find a way to get a pass rush going, while the Defensive Line have been pretty stout against the run in recent games. Todd Gurley could be missing for the Rams too which could make things easier for Arizona to clamp down on the run and that could give the Cardinals a strong foundation to build their success upon.

There have been some nice performances from the Rams when it comes to passing the ball, but if Jared Goff is given some reps off it may make it more difficult for them to move the ball in this one. The Cardinals have had issues stopping the pass for much of this season, but again there have been signs of improvement in the last three weeks and I think the motivation of the home team has to be questioned in this one.

It certainly makes it hard to believe they are going to cover this spread and I think the underdog could be worth backing even though Arizona have a poor recent record against the Rams.

The Rams have a good set of recent trends, but Arizona are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog. Both teams are potentially going with backups in key areas, but I think the Cardinals may want this a bit more than the Rams and it will be tough for the home team to cover this number with the improvements made by Arizona down the stretch.

After the huge effort Los Angeles put in to the Week 16 defeat at San Francisco I think the Rams might be mentally not ready to do the same here so taking the points look the play.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: Things have become very clear for the Philadelphia Eagles after beating the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16 and they will be playing in the post-season if they win or the Cowboys lose in Week 17. If the Eagles are able to claim the NFC East Division, they are going to be hosting either the San Francisco 49ers or the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs, but they can't focus on anything but this game having been in PlayOff mode for the entire month.

Any loss in that time would have likely meant the Eagles were out of contention to make the PlayOffs so the players have rallied together at just the right time to produce a three game winning run. Injuries have been piling up, but Carson Wentz has shown a real desire to carry this team and is justifying why the Eagles were happy enough to let Nick Foles go and get fully behind Wentz at Quarter Back.

Earlier this month the Eagles needed to recover from a big deficit to the beat the New York Giants, but you have to think the latter do have one big effort left for them. The Giants have won two in a row, although the one change from the first meeting between these Divisional rivals is the return of Daniel Jones at Quarter Back.

In Week 14 it was Eli Manning leading the New York Giants, but Jones can have similar success as the veteran. He will be backed up by Saquon Barkley who was restricted to 66 yards in the first game, but the Giants Offensive Line have opened more holes of late and the Eagles Defensive Line has just had one or two issues slowing the run.

I expect Barkley to have a bit more success than in their Week 14 meeting, but the Giants will lean on Daniel Jones against what has been a vulnerable Philadelphia Secondary. The Quarter Back should have his full complement of Wide Receivers and the Philadelphia pass rush may not be able to impact the game like they would want and that gives the Giants every chance of pushing their NFC East rivals all the way.

The Eagles should also have a very successful passing day against this Giants Secondary, but there are one or two things that may favour the home team which can see them involved in a very competitive game. The first is the fact that New York have been playing the run pretty well in recent games and the Defensive Line may find a way to stop Miles Sanders, although I do think the Running Back could be a major factor coming out of the backfield as a safety blanket for Carson Wentz.

If the Giants can push Philadelphia behind the chains they have the pass rush which can harass Carson Wentz and force him to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he may like.

It could lead to drives being stalled and the second reason you have to believe the Giants could potentially cause an upset is all of the injuries Philadelphia are dealing with in the Receiving units. It may mean some inconsistent drives for the Eagles and I do like the points being given to the underdog even if Carson Wentz is throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to stop anyone down the stretch.

The Giants have not been a good home underdog to back, but I think we get an A plus effort from them as they look to play spoiler for a rival. The Eagles have done enough to win games, but they have not blown anyone away and the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

College Football Week 6 Picks (October 6th)

Week 5 of the College Football season proved to be another winning one on the season, but we haven't even reached the half way stage of the regular season and that means this is not even close to the time to be giving yourself a pat on the back.

Last week I had a little more time to put out the full analysis for all of the selections but I know that won't be the case in Week 6, although I will have the breakdown for some of my selections which you can read below.

The full selections for Week 6 can be seen at the bottom of the thread.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: It will take a brave person to stick their neck on the line and oppose the Alabama Crimson Tide from repeating as National Champions in 2018. Many have considered this to the best team Nick Saban has had since taking over as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide and setting the benchmark for College Football and the team have been dominating opponents whether they have in or out of the SEC Conference.

The Crimson Tide have been winning games by a wide margin with an average of 41.2 points per game more than their opponents over the first five games of the season.

Things are pretty settled with Alabama who are already focused on trying to make the Play Offs and win the National Championship again. The same can't be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks in the first season Chad Morris is Head Coach of the programme.

Arkansas have begun with a 1-4 record and they are looking unlikely to surpass the four wins they earned in the 2017 season. Usually the Head Coach will be given time when taking over a team for the first season, but the Razorbacks have some high demands and the fans have not been impressed by what they are seeing despite bringing back nine starters on the Offensive unit and eight starters on the Defensive unit.

The 27 point home loss to the North Texas Mean Green is the performance that hurt the fans the most, but the Razorbacks have also been beaten by 31 points by the Auburn Tigers. Last week was better with a more competitive performance against the Texas A&M Aggies, but the challenge is much bigger this week against what looks like it could go down as one of the strongest College Football teams in years.

It is so important for the Razorbacks to try and establish the run in this one if they are going to have a serious chance of upsetting the Crimson Tide. The Offensive Line have yet to really impose themselves on games this season, but the Alabama Defensive Line has not been the all conquering unit of years gone by yet either so there is a chance for Arkansas to get something going.

This will make Ty Storey a little more comfortable at the Quarter Back position, but the inexperience could be tough to overcome. The Offensive Line have not really protected Storey as well as they would have liked and he will be under siege whenever the Razorbacks are in third and long or other obvious passing downs.

Storey will be making a third start in a row for the Razorbacks but facing pressure up front means he is more likely to make the mistakes that will see the ball turned over by the Crimson Tide.

Alabama have always been a team who love to pound the ball themselves and show their power on the ground and this Crimson Tide team have also had success moving the ball with their Running Backs. One area where Arkansas have played well this season is stopping the run with a decent Defensive Line holding teams to 3 yards per carry, but opponents have been able to expose the run game by going at the Secondary through the air.

There haven't been many times in the Nick Saban era that he has been able to call on a Quarter Back like Tua Tagovailoa and the passing numbers have been eye-catching. Tagovailoa should be able to dissect the Arkansas Secondary who have struggled in 2018 and the way the Crimson Tide have been rolling I do think they can cover what is a very big number on paper.

I am a bit concerned by Alabama's 1-5 record against the spread in their last six Conference games, and this is a big number. The Crimson Tide also haven't been able to beat Arkansas by more than 32 points in any of their last four games against one another, but this Alabama team may be the best of those and Arkansas look like a team lacking real confidence.

It isn't a straight forward play, but Alabama have won their two SEC games by 5 55 points and 22 points. I think Arkansas are more like Ole Miss than Texas A&M and I will back the Crimson Tide here.


Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The latest edition of the Red River Rivalry takes place in Week 6 of the 2018 season and there is every chance that this could be the first of two potential games between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns this season.

Both teams are unbeaten in Big 12 play, although the Texas Longhorns were beaten in Week 1 in another surprise loss to the Maryland Terrapins. That may be an issue when it comes to the Play Off selection committee later in the season, but Tom Herman won't worry about anything but running the table and finally returning to the top of the Big 12.

Herman is Coaching under some pressure at the moment with his seat feeling much warmer after the opening week loss to the Terrapins. However the four straight wins would have cooled that seat down and Herman will likely be safe in his job if he can help prevent the Oklahoma Sooners beating Texas three times in a row.

Much of the outcome of this game is going to be based on the big battle between the Sooners Offensive unit and the Texas Defensive unit. Both of those units have been in fine form in the 2018 season and it really does feel the outcome of this game will be decided on that side of the ball.

Kyler Murray has played very well at the Quarter Back position for Oklahoma and he is going be important to this game. Murray had to sit out the first series in Week 5, but he then came in and dominated the Baylor Bears and Texas have to find the right plays to make sure they can at least contain Murray to some extent.

Murray will be facing his toughest challenge against a Texas Secondary who have held teams to 218 passing yards per game, but he is capable of making plays with his legs too which makes it tough to contain the dual threat Quarter Back. The Longhorns Defensive Line can get some pressure up front, but they have to make sure they are able to be stout against the run and at least make Murray play from third and long where they can.

In all reality it looks like this could be another high-scoring rivalry game and that means the Longhorns have to find some real consistency from their own Offensive unit. They have not run the ball as well as they would have liked and it is the play of Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back which has been helping them win games.

Ehlinger will need his Offensive Line to be at their best with the pressure Oklahoma have generated from the pass rush being a real key to some of their successes in 2018. The Quarter Back should have some success throwing the ball against the Oklahoma Secondary but Ehlinger will be under pressure to make sure he looks after the ball and that should give the Longhorns a chance of keeping this game close even in a losing effort.

The last four Red River Rivalry games have seen the winner take home the victory by 7 points or fewer. Oklahoma have won three of the last four, but Texas have lost all of those games by the same 5 point margin and I do think the points being given to the underdog are appealing enough to back them here.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 35 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)