NFL Week 18 Picks 2023 (January 7-8)

There is no doubt that every NFL fan and a large majority of sports fans have been thinking about Damar Hamlin this week after the scary minutes of seeing the Buffalo Safety fighting for his life on the field on Monday Night Football.

It is a reminder that the sports we love are being played by human beings who are sons/daughters, brothers/sisters and fathers/mothers with real lives that are affected.

Of course we are going to be unhappy when our teams lose or blow a big play, but trolling athletes for mistakes is embarrassing and Hamlin's situation should be a reminder to anyone who partakes in such things of the potential impact you are having on another human being. Even Tee Higgins was not spared this week after being involved in a clear football play, but this is the world we live in these days and it is quite sad to see.

Hopefully Damar Hamlin will live a full, healthy life as he recovers from this moment. All praise to those who helped him first and the medical staff that have saved his life.

Just like that we have reached Week 18, the final week of the regular season.

PlayOff berths are still up for grabs at the bottom of both Conferences, while the AFC South Divisional Championship will be decided on Saturday.

Seedings are still to be worked out, but all will be confirmed by the end of Sunday night and the Wild Card Round will be set.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: There really is a lot of uncertainty as to what the NFL will decide to do after the awful events witnessed by a national audience in Cincinnati. While all thoughts are with Damar Hamlin and his family and friends, the NFL have an issue to deal with at the top of the AFC.

If this was only going to affect Seeding between Number 2 and Number 4 for the Divisional winners, I think it would have been easier for the NFL to make a decision that likely involved a cancellation. However, the Bills could have finished with the much coveted Number 1 Seed in the AFC if they had won their remaining two games and so there is going to be an awkward decision that has to be made in the NFL offices.

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) can only try and focus on winning this final regular season game with the likelihood that it will lead to the top Seed in the Conference. They would have the better winning percentage than the Bills if they are able to do that and would mean all roads to the Super Bowl have to come through Kansas City in this Conference.

Of course we don't really know how teams and players are going to have been affected by the scenes from Monday Night Football and that brings plenty of uncertainty to the table. While the Kansas City Chiefs have the motivation to try and finish with the Number 1 Seed, the Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) will be hosting this game having been eliminated from the post-season in what has been an underwhelming year.

They have already made the switch at Quarter Back from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham and you do have to wonder how hard the Raiders players are willing to play having seen a peer go down as he did on Monday Night Football. Spoiling things for a Divisional rival will provide some motivation, especially against the hated Chiefs, but players are human and emotionally it could be a really tough test and even more so after the effort put into a close loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17.

The Raiders will look to establish Josh Jacobs and give their young Quarter Back a chance to play from third and manageable spots, but this may not be as easy as it once was. In recent games the Offensive Line have not opened up the big gaps for Jacobs, while the Kansas City Defensive Line have just stepped up their play in restricting those attacks on the ground.

Even then, I do think Josh Jacobs will have a good game and that should help Jarrett Stidham who will be throwing into a tough Kansas City Secondary. The pass rush pressure will just be another problem for an inexperienced Quarter Back to deal with, but Stidham does have Davante Adams and decent support Receivers that can make plays for him in the passing game.

A key for the Las Vegas Raiders is making sure they remain competitive so they can stick to the game plan that they want to run.

And a huge part of doing that is looking for the Raiders Defensive unit to continue their strong play of recent weeks as they prepare to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs Offense.

Patrick Mahomes has had his way with the Las Vegas Raiders since being moved into the starting spot for the Kansas City Chiefs and he will feel he can continue that dominance. He can hand the ball off to Isiah Pacheco and have the rookie Running Back rip off some big gains, but Andy Reid is not someone that enjoys pounding the rock all day and will keep Mahomes throwing the ball as long as possible.

I do think the Chiefs will be able to establish the run when they go that route and it may be key for Patrick Mahomes as he faces an improved Secondary who have been playing hard for the team.

Stopping Patrick Mahomes completely is very, very unlikely, but the Raiders don't need to lose their focus in coverage by asking more players to try and pressure the top Quarter Back. Instead they will look for the Defensive Line to challenge this Kansas City Offensive Line at the line of scrimmage and try and take away the passing lanes for Patrick Mahomes down the field.

It would not be a big surprise to see Mahomes scrambling and picking up some First Downs with his legs, but this is a big spread if the Raiders are even semi-focused on trying to spoil the party. They look like they can control the clock at times and Kansas City have had issues closing out games for much of the season and could easily allow a backdoor cover if needed.

Kansas City have dominated this series in recent seasons, but they are just 2-13-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games against a team with a losing record, while they have failed to cover in any of their last six Divisional games.

As disappointing as the season has been, Las Vegas have covered in their last six games against a team with a winning record and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six at home. This is a team who have played hard after a loss with a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven following a defeat and I do think there are enough points for the home team to keep this one competitive.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There were questions about the motivation of the Tennessee Titans (7-9) ahead of their Week 17 game against the Dallas Cowboys- it was clear to Mike Vrabel and the team that the game was effectively meaningless and winning in Week 18 would be enough to secure a place in the post-season and so the Titans did decide to rest a number of key players in the eventual loss to the Cowboys.

The same approach could have been taken by the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8), but Head Coach Doug Pederson made it clear he wanted his starters to play in Week 17. They did get the better of the Houston Texans and that means there is a pathway to the PlayOffs that can be found even with a loss on Saturday, but Pederson will have been frustrated that his team have been scheduled to play a day earlier than he would have wanted.

Facing a rested opponent increases the pressure on the Jaguars who are favoured having pushed their way to the front of the AFC South thanks to winning four games in a row. That is real momentum for a team who looked to be well on their way to another losing season a few weeks ago, and a vastly different way to enter this pivotal Week 18 clash compared with the Tennessee Titans who have lost six in a row.

Losing Ryan Tannehill is a massive blow for Tennessee and they will be starting this game with Joshua Dobbs at Quarter Back. The newly signed veteran showed enough in Week 17 to have the Titans believing he is a superior option to Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs will benefit from having Derrick Henry behind him in the backfield.

The Tennessee approach to this game is not going to surprise anyone on the other sideline, but actually stopping Derrick Henry can be a challenging task. However, the Jaguars Defensive Line will feel they are playing well enough to contain King Henry and ensure he is not able to take over this game, while also forcing Joshua Dobbs to have to make some plays to keep the chains moving.

Being in third and manageable will give Joshua Dobbs a chance, otherwise he is likely going to be dealing with a significant Jacksonville pass rush that has gotten to the Quarter Back with regularity. It also becomes much more difficult to throw against the improving Jacksonville Secondary and Dobbs is going to have to be wary of throwing an Interception or two that could prove to be very costly.

Jacksonville may feel they can do enough on the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball to limit Derrick Henry, but they are not going to have a lot of joy in establishing the run themselves. Travis Etienne has had a strong season and the Jaguars Offensive Line have been a good unit to run behind, but the Titans have proven all season that they are not the team to give up much at the line of scrimmage and so it is a game that is made for Trevor Lawrence to take the next step in his professional career.

Some may have doubted Trevor Lawrence, but the Quarter Back has really grown over the last several weeks to guide the Jaguars into this position where they could return to the post-season.

The Offensive Line should be able to keep the pocket clean enough for Lawrence, even if he is throwing from third and long spots, and he has shown he can dissect Secondaries with his passing accuracy and arm strength. Interceptions have been a feature of the Titans Secondary in recent weeks, but they are still giving up significant numbers through the air and I do think Trevor Lawrence will do enough to put the Jaguars in a position to win and cover.

In recent seasons the Titans have been one of the top teams in the AFC and they have dominated this series with the Jaguars, but there does feel like a shift, at least at the end of this season.

While Tennessee does have a good road record against the spread, they are just 0-4-2 against the spread in their six game losing run and I simply don't think they have had the time to get Joshua Dobbs fully up to speed with the Offensive game plan. Add in the tough Defensive unit in front of them and I think Tennessee may struggle to score the points to stay with the home team in this AFC South decider.

The Jaguars have covered in each of their four game winning run and I think they can do that one more time.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: After the almost-tragic events of Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills (12-3) should feel a boost all around after hearing directly from Safety Damar Hamlin on Thursday.

Preparation for this Week 18 game would have been very difficult in most situations, especially playing on a short week, but the Bills players have been put through the emotional ringer over the last few days. Having Damar Hamlin on the road to recovery will be huge at the Bills may still have an opportunity to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and secure home field through the PlayOffs.

Of course the cancellation of the game at the Cincinnati Bengals was inevitable after what we all witnessed, but it has also left the NFL in a difficult position as to how to deal with the most unique of circumstances. Only the top Seed receives a Bye these days and of course that also means home field advantage, but the Bills can now only secure that by winning on Sunday and hoping Kansas City have been beaten on Saturday.

It puts some doubt as to how this game will go- if the Chiefs have won the NFL are offering up solutions as to how the AFC Championship Game will be played, but for Buffalo it will be clear that they have to play in the Wild Card Round next week. Sean McDermott will already be analysing and assessing his players and wondering if they are ready emotionally to compete, but if the Number 1 Seed is already gone, there is a scenario where players would be rested.

That could be a major plus for the New England Patriots (8-8) who suddenly find themselves in a 'win and you're in' situation after the collapse of the Miami Dolphins. A loss leaves the Patriots open to being overtaken by either the Dolphins or the Steelers, but Bill Belichick has to be happy with the position his team have forced for themselves.

If they are playing a Buffalo team that is unfocused or resting starters, the Patriots have a chance of the road win that will take them into the PlayOff (and potentially into a repeat against the Bills in the Wild Card Round).

Otherwise this is a very tough game for New England who have simply not matched up that well with the Buffalo Bills and who have struggled when facing the better teams in the NFL. They beat the Miami Dolphins last week to take control of the Number 7 Seed in the AFC, but the Patriots were out-gained in terms of yardage and the Offensive approach is one that the Bills Defensive unit will be comfortable dealing with.

New England will want to pound the rock, but they were restricted when these teams met in early December and even a returning Damien Harris is unlikely to provide a huge spark. If they cannot run the ball as they like, Mac Jones will be under pressure to win this game with his arm and I think the Buffalo Secondary has proven time and time again that they are not an easy team to beat through the air, at least not by a Quarter Back still finding his way in the pro game.

The biggest unknown remains the emotional mindset of the Buffalo players, but they are a team who can hurt the Patriots on the other side of the ball when at their best. Containing Josh Allen has proven to be beyond New England over the last couple of years and the Bills have won five of the last six between these AFC East rivals.

A strong Offensive Line will look to establish the run, but the key may be to get Josh Allen moving with his legs to just open up one or two passing lanes. It will be cold, but the conditions should not affect the Buffalo passing game and I think Allen has every chance of moving into the post-season behind a strong performance, even if he has not been quite at his best in recent weeks.

The Bills may not have a lot to play for, but the Patriots have failed to cover in their last four games against a team with a winning record. After all we saw on Monday, I feel the Buffalo players are going to be boosted by the news from Damar Hamlin and they can continue their dominance of this rivalry, although I would definitely look out for any news about starters and their time likely to be spent on the field if the Kansas City Chiefs have won on Saturday.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: If the ball had bounced slightly differently at times this season, the Minnesota Vikings (12-4) could easily have been chasing a Wild Card berth this week or perhaps even missing out on the post-season altogether. Instead they still have a chance to finish up with the Number 2 Seed in the tough NFC as they close out the regular season at the home of a Divisional rival.

Things are a lot different for the Chicago Bears (3-13) who have suffered through a miserable season, even though the developments seen in Justin Fields have been a bonus. The PlayOffs are of no concern for the Bears, but another loss coupled with a Houston win over Indianapolis would mean the Chicago Bears will be on the clock as the holders of the first pick in the NFL Draft coming up.

Unsurprisingly Justin Fields was shut down for the season and Nathan Peterman will be starting for the Chicago Bears at Quarter Back. There won't be many out there that believe Peterman is even a semi-decent backup, but he may be ideal for the Chicago Bears and the fanbase that will likely be very comfortable with a loss if it means a rapid turnaround for the franchise in the future.

The Bears may have suffered a somewhat competitive defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles, but their last two losses have been absolute blowouts with Chicago giving up more than 200 yards more than their opponent in both. Moving the ball in this one is going to be a massive challenge for Chicago, even against this Minnesota Defensive unit, and I think that is going to make it a very long day in the office for Nathan Peterman who has thrown 3 Touchdown passes and 14 Interceptions in his NFL career.

Chicago's best approach Offensively is going to be leaning on David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and hoping they can pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. The Bears Offensive Line looks to have produced some good numbers, but do not discount the impact Justin Fields has had on the running game and it is much different for Chicago with a much less mobile Quarter Back behind Center.

While it has been possible to run against the Vikings this season, I do think Minnesota will be daring Nathan Peterman to beat them through the air and the focus has to be on clamping down on the run up front. The RPO schemes are simply not going to be as daunting for Minnesota and putting Nathan Peterman behind the chains should see the Bears Offensive Line overwhelmed when it comes to the pass protection.

There may only be an outside chance of improving their Seeding, but Kevin O'Connell is expected to suit up his starters for this one as Minnesota look for some momentum following a crushing loss at the Green Bay Packers.

Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Offensive unit should be able to do what they like against this Chicago Defense which has traded away some key veterans through the course of the season.

The Quarter Back should be able to hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook and look for him to rip off some huge gains on the ground and that will only make things easier for Kirk Cousins when attacking this Secondary. Despite the Offensive Line issues in pass protection, being in third and manageable should mean Kirk Cousins has time and add to that the fact the Bears have struggled to get to the Quarter Back of late.

With little motivation, I doubt the Bears will suddenly hassle Kirk Cousins to the point of keeping this close and the Vikings can pull away for a big win.

Minnesota do have some really poor trends behind them, but the Chicago Bears are not faring any better and it should be a game dominated by the road team as Nathan Peterman struggles to keep up with Kirk Cousins.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There was never going to be a perfect way to deal with an unprecedented event, but the NFL's solutions to the PlayOff picture in the AFC are not making too many people happy at the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4). In fact, the Bengals are hoping enough teams reject the proposals set out by the NFL to deal with the cancellation of the game against the Buffalo Bills, a decision that has given Cincinnati the AFC North Divisional crown before Week 18.

However, the current proposals say a Baltimore Ravens (10-6) win on Sunday would mean relying on a coin flip to decide which of these teams host the Wild Card rematch that would take place next weekend. The reason would be that the Ravens had swept the season series, but were unable to have a real shot at playing for the Division, which may have been the case if the Bengals had lost to the Bills in Week 17.

It is a tough situation for the NFL to deal with, but the Bengals do have a chance to put that situation to rest by winning in Week 18.

Joe Burrow has admitted that some of his team-mates may find it difficult to get back on the field so soon after the events of Monday Night Football- you really have to wonder about Tee Higgins, although the news that Damar Hamlin is on the road to recover is a huge boost for the Wide Receiver who has been unfairly targeted by trolls.

Hearing that Hamlin is doing better should mean the Bengals are ready to go on Sunday, but preparation would have been far from ideal. The game may actually also mean more to the Bengals than the Ravens with the home field situation as it is, especially as Baltimore could choose to rest starters knowing they are very likely to be playing the same opponent again next week after losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

Lamar Jackson has been ruled out again, while Tyler Huntley is banged up and may not be risked. It would mean Anthony Brown starting behind Center and I do think that is a considerable drop off for the Ravens, even from the struggling Huntley.

Injuries could mean John Harbaugh is unwilling to risk those who could be important for the Wild Card Game next weekend and the Ravens are likely to struggle with the Offensive match up against this much improved Cincinnati Defensive unit. Where Baltimore will want to run the ball, especially with Brown likely to be starting at Quarter Back, the Cincinnati Defensive Line have clamped down up front and they will force the youngster to try and beat them through the air.

The passing game has been problematic in Baltimore ever since Lamar Jackson has been injured and I think the Ravens may struggle to have much of an impact on this side of the ball.

There is also the problem of injuries on the other side of the ball with Calais Campbell out and the Ravens Defensive Line struggled in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers without him. The Steelers were able to pile up some big numbers on the ground and Joe Mixon has every chance of picking up where they left off, and perhaps even more so considering the Quarter Back play that the Bengals will get out of Joe Burrow.

I am expecting one or two absences in the Secondary for the road team and Joe Burrow may just come out slinging the ball and putting the Bengals in a strong position to win and win big. The margin of defeat will not be expected to become a factor in any potential rematch here next week, but the Bengals may just exert enough control of the game to win by double digits with Burrow likely to have a big game targeting his top Receivers.

The Ravens are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven against their AFC North rivals and I am not sure there is enough motivation for them to try and win this game in the hope that a coin flip will see them host next week.

Momentum is behind the Bengals too and I think they draw a line on the unfortunate incident that occurred in Week 17 on this field by covering for a sixth time in a row at home and ensuring that the Wild Card game is played here.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: At this stage of the regular season, five straight losses should have ended any hopes the Miami Dolphins (8-8) had in making the PlayOffs. They have certainly lost control of their own destiny, but the Dolphins still have an opportunity to play in the post-season if they can win this game and the Buffalo Bills can beat the New England Patriots.

Events on Monday Night Football has just made things that much more awkward for the Miami Dolphins- instead of hoping the Buffalo Bills are still trying to secure the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, there is every chance the Kansas City Chiefs would have cemented top spot on Saturday evening and so the Bills will perhaps not be as motivated as they may have been.

Mike McDaniel has made it clear that the Dolphins cannot do anything other than focusing on playing the New York Jets (7-9) who have just been eliminated from the post-season. Quarter Back play has let the Jets down and it has been announced that Mike White will not be playing in Week 18 and New York will go with veteran Joe Flacco.

Quarter Back problems are also affecting Miami with Skylar Thompson announced as the starter and it is going to take some effort from the Dolphins to simply win this game and force New England to win in Buffalo.

The Dolphins will feel confident despite their five game losing run and that is largely down to the recent New York Jets performances which have seen them lose three in a row. With a veteran at Quarter Back who has long seen his best days past him, the Jets could have some issues moving the ball in this game considering the unlikelihood of being able to establish the run in any kind of fashion like they would hope.

A struggling Offensive Line is one thing, but the Jets are also running into a Miami Defensive Line which has been key in clamping down on the run even though the team have hit a losing run. And unlike some of the Quarter Backs that have been faced in recent defeats, the Dolphins will feel their Secondary have the tools to control Joe Flacco and the passing game, especially as the limited movement offered by Flacco is going to see him under pressure when he does drop back to throw.

In saying that, there cannot be a huge confidence in Skylar Thompson for the Miami Dolphins- the rookie simply has not shown he can be as accurate or have the arm strength to get the ball down the field and he will rely on short passers and hope for yards after the catch. Thompson has thrown a single Touchdown pass with 3 Interceptions and he is facing a Jets Secondary that have some talented players to deal with Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle.

However, Skylar Thompson is likely going to receive a lot more help from his Offensive Line and Running Backs as far as positioning on the field is concerned. In recent games the Jets Defensive Line has shown some wear and tear from a long season and this Miami team have been able to get something out of Raheem Mostert which will encourage the team.

I also expect the rookie Miami Quarter Back to have enough time to make his throws with that running game established and it could be enough for the home team to at least do their part and win this one.

As the season has petered out for New York, the Jets are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.

Miami have not exactly been a lot better, but they have won the yardage battle in their last two games and perhaps been a little unfortunate to not have beaten either the Green Bay Packers or New England Patriots. The Dolphins have largely been very good at home and I do think the support from the Running Backs and Offensive Line give them an edge over the Jets and Joe Flacco.

Asking a rookie to cover as a favourite is not ideal, but the Jets may struggle to even motivate themselves to play spoiler as it could be doing another AFC East rival a favour. Losing last week in the fashion they did is a concern and I will back the Dolphins to come away with a winning record for the season, even if it still leaves them short of a PlayOff berth.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Instead of wrapping up the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and ensuring a Bye through to the Divisional Round AND home field advantage in the post-season, the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) have dropped back to back games and just left the door slightly ajar to three teams chasing them with twelve wins on the board.

Once again the Eagles look for the fourteenth win of the 2022 season which will earn them the top Seed in the Conference as they host Divisional rivals the New York Giants (9-6-1) in Week 18.

The injury to Jalen Hurts has been key to the two Philadelphia defeats against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, but one piece of good news is that the Quarter Back is trending towards starting in Week 18 and then earning two weeks of rest before playing in the Divisional Round.

A major second factor is that the New York Giants have nothing to play for and are likely going to be sitting key starters in preparation for their Wild Card game next week. Playing spoiler would be fun against a Divisional rival, but the Giants have made it clear that they are more interested in having a successful season of their own and that means doing what is best for New York rather than the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers or Minnesota Vikings.

A drive or two would not be a big surprise from the New York starters, but the Giants will want to wrap up Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley as soon as possible. Losing either would be criticised wholeheartedly in Gotham and the Coaching Staff know they have a tough road game to come next week where both players will be really important.

Even if they were playing all of their Offensive starters, the Giants could struggle to really get things going against this opponent, which has looked a bad match up for them. Signing veterans to improve the Defensive Line play against the run has been important for the Philadelphia Eagles and they would likely be daring Daniel Jones and his mix of Wide Receivers to try and beat them through the air, although that is no easy task considering the talent the Eagles have in the Secondary.

Starters could have had issues and the backups are not expected to fare much better.

This should mean Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Offensive unit are able to produce enough points to secure the top Seed and the potential blowout is on, especially as the Eagles are likely to be entering a Bye Week. One major difference for Hurts is that Lane Johnson is going to be absent, but the Right Tackle is hopeful of returning for the Divisional Round and the mobility of the Philadelphia Quarter Back has been a true miss for the current Number 1 Seed.

Philadelphia should be much more effective at running the ball with the threat that Jalen Hurts will tuck the ball in and make plays himself and this Giants team have had issues all season in stropping teams on the ground. When these teams met earlier in the season, the Eagles piled up over 250 yards rushing the ball and I think Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders have big games to set the team up for the victory.

There is no doubt that the passing game will also have more consistency with Jalen Hurts back behind Center and I do think the Eagles will be able to pull away for a big win.

I do worry about a spread of this size and that is because it is very open to a backdoor cover, while the Eagles could take the foot off the gas once the game is in control.

However, Tyrod Taylor may not be able to move the ball as effectively as Daniel Jones and that may end up costing New York some short fields as the Eagles end up with a crushing victory.

The Giants have a strong 4-1 record against the spread in their last five visits to this NFC East rival, but motivational factors have to be questioned and the bigger picture is the focus on the PlayOffs beginning next week rather than this game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: There is still a chance for the Dallas Cowboys (12-4) to win the NFC East and even the Number 1 Seed if they are able to win in the nation's capital and the Philadelphia Eagles are to lose to the New York Giants in the other game being played at the same time.

It is a long shot when you think of the likelihood of the Giants resting starters, but the Cowboys have momentum of their own with six wins in seven games and are also playing off a 'mini bye' having beaten the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. This should mean Mike McCarthy chooses to give his starters ample playing time to make sure they don't lose any rhythm before what is likely to be three road games between the Cowboys and the Super Bowl.

Winning games in January is going to be key in determining McCarthy's future as Head Coach in Dallas and it has been a long time since the team found consistency in this month. There has to be a potential for the Cowboys to pull the starters in the second half if Philadelphia have a big lead in their own game, but Dallas have motivation to end the season with a strong win before heading off to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round if they are unable to improve their Seeding.

They are facing a Washington Commanders (7-8-1) team who have lost three in a row to be eliminated from the PlayOffs, although Head Coach Ron Rivera was seemingly unaware that could be a possibility in Week 17. The sub-par Quarter Back play has proven to be too much to overcome and Washington will be giving the ball to Sam Howell this week to see how the rookie can handle a full NFL game.

Both Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke have underperformed and Howell is surrounded by some solid weapons at Running Back and Wide Receiver. However, he is facing a Dallas Defensive unit that has been really good all season and the rookie is likely to have some teething problems in the pro ranks.

While the game is close, Brian Robinson Jr should be able to pound the rock with some success and keeping Sam Howell in third and manageable will be key to the outcome of this one. Obvious passing situations means dealing with the very strong Dallas pass rush and also throwing into a ball-hawking Secondary that will be looking to give the rookie Quarter Back the kind of outing that he won't soon forget.

A Secondary that takes chances to make big plays do allow one or two big gains and Sam Howell does have a couple of solid Receiving options that he can target. However, you have to imagine the rookie is going to make one or two mistakes that could give the Dallas Cowboys to win and win well on the road.

Recent games have not seen the Dallas Offensive Line at their best, but I do think they have faced tougher Defensive Lines than the one they may see in Week 18. Running the ball against the Eagles and Titans is not an easy task, but I expect more out of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard in Washington and that should just open up the playbook for Dak Prescott, who continues to mainly play well at Quarter Back.

Running the ball will be key to slowing down the Washington pass rush, while also meaning Prescott can get the ball out of his hands quickly enough to negate the pressure that will be coming in on him. This Commanders Secondary has to be respected for continuing to play hard, but I like the way CeeDee Lamb is being deployed by the Cowboys and my feeling is that Dallas will secure a big win by shutting things down on the Defensive side of the ball.

The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight visits to Washington and they have a strong record against NFC East rivals in recent seasons, while Dallas are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen when facing a team with a losing record.

After being eliminated from the PlayOff picture, Washington's motivation has to be questioned, especially with reports that Ron Rivera could be let go as soon as Monday. Offensively the Commanders may struggle to score enough points for even a backdoor cover and they are 1-4 against the spread in their five Divisional games played this season.

Barring a complete withdrawal of the starters for the second half, Dallas should be able to win and cover.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There is always one game flexed into the late Sunday primetime spot in the final week of the NFL, but the League always hopes it is a standalone game. On the face of things there is every chance this NFC North Divisional game will decide the last PlayOff place, but it has not been lost on anyone that the early schedule will dictate the overall importance of this one.

For the Green Bay Packers (8-8) nothing will change regardless of any permutation of results earlier in the day- they simply need to win a fifth game in a row and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be the Number 7 Seed in the NFC.

Things are murkier for the Detroit Lions (8-8) who will be eliminated if the Seattle Seahawks have beaten the Los Angeles Rams in the late afternoon slot. Players are going to be well aware of what has happened in Seattle when getting ready for this one, although Head Coach Dan Campbell will be demanding a strong end to the season even if the Lions are eliminated.

However, players are human beings and you do have to wonder what kind of emotional blow it will be if the Seahawks have won and the Lions, who have won seven of their last nine games, have fallen just short of the post-season. A deflated team could be potentially dangerous as they look to spoil the season for a hate rival on the road no less, but there also the potential for the entire sideline to be very flat.

Regardless of the situation, this is a tough game for the Detroit Lions on the Offensive side of the ball thanks to the vast improvements made by the Green Bay Defense. Most notable is the amount of turnovers they are finding and Jared Goff has regularly struggled in cold conditions as he looks to beat the Packers for the second time in the 2022 season.

The key for Goff and the Lions is making sure this game is competitive and they do not have to ignore the running game. We have seen Detroit's Offensive Line open up some solid holes for the Running Backs and the Green Bay Defensive Line continue to struggle to clamp down on the run.

Keeping the ball on the ground means controlling the clock, and limiting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Offensive unit's touches, while also wearing down the Packers and not having to throw into a Secondary which has been playing at a high level. A clean game gives the Lions a chance, especially as Jared Goff tends to be well protected and could find some of his Receivers down the field when using play-action to just get the Linebackers and Safeties to jump into position to try and stop the run.

Detroit should have some successes, but the Green Bay Packers look to have real momentum behind them and an improving passing game makes them very dangerous. The first game-plan will still involve Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon pounding the rock and the Packers will have seen what the Carolina Panthers did to the Detroit Defensive Line a couple of weeks ago, although that was also partly down to the RPO schemes that the Panthers will run.

Even then, there are holes up front and I do think the Packers Offensive Line can help exploit those for the Running Backs and that should make Aaron Rodgers' life that much more comfortable at Quarter Back. It has taken some time, but Rodgers looks to have found some chemistry with his new look Receiving corps, although the Packers will be facing an under-rated Lions Secondary and a pass rush that can get to the Quarter Back efficiently.

Turnovers are likely going to be the key to the outcome of the game and it was turnovers that cost Green Bay in a close loss to the Lions in Detroit. At the moment Aaron Rodgers is being a little more careful with his throws, while the Packers Defensive unit are finding a way to get the ball back into the hands of their future Hall of Fame player and I think that will be important in this late night offering.

My feeling is that Seattle will win earlier in the day too and a deflated Detroit might not have the emotional energy to keep up with a Green Bay team that have won four in a row.

Detroit have matched up well with the Packers in recent meetings and they are 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven between these NFC North rivals, but I think the momentum behind Green Bay will see them score in a late drive to take them over this number.

MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders + 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

NFL Wild Card Round Play Off Picks 2017 (January 7-8)

After a tough Week 16, the NFL Picks bounced back in Week 17 and that gives me some positive momentum to take into the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs which are played over this weekend.

We have one AFC and one NFC Wild Card game on both Saturday and Sunday and I think I speak for most people when I say the NFL Play Offs are the best post-season set of games in any sport.

The games usually get better and better at this point with the Super Bowl arguably an anti-climax to some of the games we will see on the road to the Super Bowl over the next three weeks. I will admit that the Wild Card Round is not as exciting as it may have been if all of the teams were coming into this weekend fully healthy, but if the teams I expect move through to the Divisional Round I would say at least three of the four games should be a lot of fun to watch.

It seems the fashionable thing is to pick a Super Bowl winner at this time of the season and there are plenty putting their brackets out there. The easiest selection is going with the New England Patriots taking on the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl as the two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC have looked very strong through the season and both come in with some momentum behind them.

While I think it is going to be very difficult to knock them off, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a repeat of a Super Bowl that was actually played just five years ago. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers look like they have the tools to win tough road games at the Patriots and Cowboys at some point over the next couple of weeks and both have have looked like they are getting hot at the right time and have plenty of experience of the post-season to head to Houston on Sunday 5th February.


Last season saw all four road teams win in the Wild Card Round to improve those teams to 8-4 over the last three seasons, but I think we will see a reversal from last season. In my opinion the four home teams have every chance of sweeping the Wild Card Round for the first time since 2012 but all will be revealed by Sunday evening when the Divisional Round has been set.


Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans Pick: The problems the Houston Texans have had at the Quarter Back position have been well documented through the 2016 season and an injury to Tom Savage means they will be going back to Brock Osweiler to open the Play Offs. Motivation has to be high for the Texans knowing the Super Bowl will be held in their home Stadium and they go into this one as the favourites thanks to a brutal injury suffered by the Oakland Raiders in Week 16.

Derek Carr had led the Oakland Raiders into a position to at least finish with a Wild Card Round bye before breaking his leg in the win over the Indianapolis Colts which has effectively ended his season. This game would have had a ready made storyline if Carr was available as he would be playing a Play Off game against the team his big brother was the Quarter Back in the early part of his century, but Oakland have suffered a huge blow with his injury.

The Raiders are actually down to their third string Quarter Back after Matt McGloin went down with an injury in Week 17. That means Connor Cook will get the call for Oakland and will become the first Quarter Back to make his first start in the post-season during the Super Bowl era.

With the problems at Quarter Back it is no surprise this is making the news in Oakland this week as they return to the Play Offs since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002 and really felt they could do something with Derek Carr. However one piece of news that can't be ignored is the injury to Left Tackle Donald Penn which rules him out of this game and that means Cook is going to have to be very careful.

Being hit from the blind side is always trouble for the Quarter Back and Cook is going to struggle to keep the Houston pass rush off him in obvious passing situations with their Defenders well rested in Week 17. Cook is also throwing into the Houston Secondary which is one of the better ones in the NFL after struggling with the Denver Broncos and that means leaning on the running game and hoping that can keep the Raiders in third and manageable spots for much of the afternoon.

Oakland have been able to run the ball but the injury to Penn hurts them in that department too and the Offensive Line looks like it is going to be banged up heading into the Wild Card Round. It has to be noted how good the Texans Defensive Line have been in shutting down the run and that means it could be a long day in the office for the Oakland Offense who will likely need some big plays from their own Defensive unit to try and stay with the Houston Texans and set up strong field position.

With the Oakland Raiders likely to struggle Offensively, Cook and company have to at least look after the ball and put pressure on the Texans with the field position battle. They have to know how much Brock Osweiler has struggled at Quarter Back, even if one of his best performances of the season came against the Texans in Mexico City.

Osweiler has been guilty of being something of a turnover machine this season and has to be careful throwing the ball with the likes of Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin trying to make plays up front. To be fair to the Houston Offensive Line, they have protected the Quarter Back who can be guilty of staring down Receivers and throwing right to the mark where Defenders can make a play on the ball.

It might be down to Osweiler to make some big plays for the Houston Texans despite the return of Lamar Miller at Running Back. Miller has proved to be a big weapon for Osweiler, but Houston have struggled to run the ball and this Raiders Defensive Line have been able to shut down the run which could leave Osweiler in third and long spots.

Turnovers and Special Teams are going to be massive in this game and could prove to be a difference maker. I think Houston have an edge on the Offense solely because of the experience Osweiler has over Cook and I think the Texans Defense is likely to be able to do more in shutting down what their opponents are trying to do.

I might hate myself for saying this, but I do like the Houston Texans in this game and I think they cover the spread. Scoring 17 points might be enough to do that and Osweiler has tended to play better at home for the most part, while also having some confidence of seeing this Oakland Raiders Defense previously in Mexico City. I simply don't know how Oakland are going to score enough points to stay with Houston outside of turnovers and Special Teams winning the game for them and ultimately I think the Derek Carr injury is going to be pointed as the moment this team was let down.

Cook is also likely to throw a ball or two that is either picked or close to being picked and I think Houston win this one by around a Touchdown in a low scoring game. The Texans Defensive unit can make a late play on Cook against the banged up Offensive Line to seal the deal and I will take the home favourite in this one.


Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Week 17 tilt between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions was flexed into Sunday Night Football with the belief that the winner would get into the Play Offs and the losing team would be heading home. A Washington Redskins loss earlier in the day meant the game was going to decide who hosted the New York Giants and which team would have to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend and it was the Lions who have drawn the tougher assignment.

Playing Seattle in Seattle in the Play Offs has proved to be a big challenge for teams in recent seasons and the Seahawks are definitely a team that have the experience and the Quarter Back to go deep in the Play Offs.

However it has to be said that the Seahawks have not quite come into the Play Offs as they have in previous seasons with a number of wins behind them. Instead they have been erratic and injuries to players like Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor have exposed a Defensive unit that prides itself on shutting teams down.

The Seahawks might have caught a break this week in facing a Detroit team led by Matt Stafford who has definitely not been as effective since hurting his finger on his throwing hand. His supporting cast is not as strong as some of the other teams in the Play Offs, but Stafford is a warrior and will believe he can make some plays downfield to give Seattle some issues.

The issues for Stafford may be if he is in third and long spots during the game as the Seattle pass rush has come alive and the Lions Offensive Line had issues blocking Green Bay last week. Now they face Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril up front with the likes of Frank Clark also able to create a push and that may take away some of the time Stafford needs if the Lions are not able to get in front of the chains.

Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones can have some success catching the ball and moving the chains, even when Stafford is under pressure, but the key player could be Zach Zenner at Running Back. Zenner has been praised by the Seahawks this week but running the ball against this Defensive Line is a much bigger test than doing that against the Green Bay Packers and it looks like Detroit will be inconsistent on the Offensive side of the ball.

That means Stafford and company will be hoping their Defensive unit can at least help out by limiting what the Seahawks can do and I do think they have some chance to do that. Seattle have struggled to run the ball all season without Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson being a little gimpy, although the latter is going to perhaps take off the knee brace to offer more mobility this weekend.

Even with that in mind, I am not sure Thomas Rawls or Alex Collins can get on track having had issues on the ground even when facing those teams that have struggled to stop the run like San Francisco last week. The Lions have not been the strongest up front and that was exposed by Green Bay last week, but this one looks like it will be down to their Quarter Back Russell Wilson to take any yards the Defense gives him and rely on his arm for the majority of the time.

Wilson's Offensive Line have not been very good in protection, but Detroit have just struggled for an effective pass rush up front and I am not sure they are the team to take advantage. I don't doubt we will see Wilson having to scramble from pressure at times because the Offensive Line has been that bad, but he is very dangerous on the run and still has some decent targets in the passing game even with Tyler Lockett's injury.

Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham are players that will keep running their routes even when Wilson is scrambling knowing how good his arm is on the run. Darius Slay was back for the Detroit Lions in the Secondary last week and he can at least give Detroit a chance to make some plays back there, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains in this game and it will be up to the Lions to keep up.

This is another home team I like this weekend and I do think Seattle can make a few plays on the Defensive side to pull away from the Detroit Lions who would have lost by double digits in three straight weeks if not for a Hail Mary at the end of the Week 17 game against Green Bay which ended in a 7 point loss. The Wild Card Round favourites of 7.5 points or higher are also 7-2 against the spread since 2005.

Add in how strong Seattle have been as a home favourite and Detroit are 0-3 against the spread and straight up outside this season and I think the Seahawks will be too good. The Seahawks lost their last home game, but the previous three had all been won by double digits and I think they win this one and cover the spread.


Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: This is another Wild Card Play Off Game that was played in the regular season, although this time the Pittsburgh Steelers will be hosting the Miami Dolphins. After a really poor start to the season, the Dolphins beat the Steelers at home in the regular season to move to 2-4 and that sparked the turn in form that saw them finish with a solid record that was good enough to end as the Number 6 Seed in the AFC.

It is clear there isn't a lot of belief in the Dolphins, who will be starting back up Quarter Back Matt Moore in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill, when you note they have been given as many points as they have in this one. The double digit favourites in the Play Offs since 2009 have gone 5-1 against the spread, but historically this has been a difficult situation in which they can cover.

Miami will be looking to control the clock and keep the Pittsburgh Offense off the field for as long as possible when they have the ball and that is by leaning on Jay Ajayi at Running Back. Ajayi had one of this three 200 yard rushing days against the Pittsburgh Steelers which should mean the latter are well aware of what he can do, but I don't think Miami should move too far from the game plan and make sure they try to establish the Running Back in this one.

Ajayi has a chance to do that because the Pittsburgh Defensive Line have had a few issues containing the run all season and struggled down the stretch. While the Dolphins Offensive Line is not at full strength, Ajayi should be able to produce a solid outing which at least keeps the Dolphins in third and manageable spots for Matt Moore at Quarter Back.

Moore hasn't played badly in relief of Tannehill and he has made some solid throws, but the one concern has to be the turnovers that have either been taken from him or barely been missed. The veteran has to be smart with the Pittsburgh Secondary capable of Interceptions but Moore should have time and Miami being able to run the ball means it could open things up down the field with some speedy and tricky Receivers on the roster.

The Dolphins didn't rest their starters in Week 17, but Pittsburgh Steelers had the luxury to do that with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC locked up in Week 16. A more recognisable team will be playing than the one that barely beat the Cleveland Browns last week and you have to think the Steelers will come out with some revenge on the mind after being beaten so easily in Miami as a big favourite in the regular season.

Le'Veon Bell has been a star for the Steelers down the stretch in a contract season and you have to think he will have a much better game than when first going up against the Dolphins earlier this season. Bell has had some big games for the Steelers as both a Running Back and a Receiver coming out of the backfield and the conditions in this Wild Card Game suggests Bell is going to have a big impact on Sunday.

Despite the star power on the Miami Defensive Line, the Dolphins have not been very good at stopping the run this season and so Bell should have a better outing than in the first game. That came off the back of a suspension to open the season and Bell is motoring now so expect the Steelers to be able to run the ball effectively.

That will make life all the easier for Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back who has the Play Off experience of being a two time Super Bowl winner. There might be some pressure up front from the likes of Suh and Wake, but Roethlisberger is a hard man to bring down and he will be able to make his throws downfield to the likes of Antonio Brown if the Dolphins are being forced to send men closer to the line of scrimmage to defend the run. Roethlisberger should have a big game in this one as well as Bell and you can understand why the Steelers are the favourites to win this game.

Even so, this feels like a big number for the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover. They are just 11-17 against the spread as a double digit favourite with Ben Roethlisberger while Matt Moore has been solid against the spread as the starting Quarter Back through his career. If Miami can run the ball as effectively as they in the second half of the season, I think they can keep this close and I will take the Dolphins with the points despite how well recent double digit Play Off favourites have played.


New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: When you looked at the four Wild Card Games this weekend, the one that most would have picked an upset from has to be the final one from Lambeau Field. Twice in recent years the New York Giants have upset the Green Bay Packers on this hallowed turf and both times they have gone on to win the Super Bowl so I am not surprised a lot of bettors are picking the Giants with the points.

There are some similarities with those recent Play Off games between these teams and the one going into this weekend. The Giants have looked a little inconsistent on the Offensive side of the ball and they have a Defense that will feel can lock down any team they face having beaten the Dallas Cowboys twice in the regular season.

Also in both of those Play Off upsets here, Green Bay had beaten the New York Giants in the regular season and they have done that again this season.

It has to be a worry for the home team, but I think Aaron Rodgers has been playing at a very high level and I am fully behind Green Bay as a team that can it all together and reach the Super Bowl in Houston. Finding an effective running game behind Ty Montgomery to balance out the Offense has been huge for the Green Bay Packers, but running the ball against this New York Defensive Line has been far from easy so it might be down to Rodgers being able to throw the ball against the NYPD (New York Pass Defense).

I am not sure I am any more impressed with that nickname than the Green Bay Receivers seemed to be earlier this week because this Giants team is one that has a couple of holes in the Secondary that a Quarter Back like Rodgers can expose. His Receivers have begun to win their battles on the outside and the return of Randall Cobb will give Green Bay another option, although Rodgers has to be wary of the likes of Landon Collins who have turned the ball over with the Giants capable of doing that.

Rodgers has looked a little more mobile down the stretch so even the pressure up front might not a be a concern for him and he is capable of taking off and running for First Downs where necessary. The Packers have looked very good on the Offensive side of the ball and should be able to move the chains and will look for the Defensive unit to step up and make some plays for them to win this game.

The Packers have to be concerned that Eli Manning tends to become a really strong Quarter Back at this time of the season despite some inconsistent play during the regular season. The Giants Offense have found a little more balance down the stretch with Paul Perkins showing he is the strongest Running Back they have on the roster and he should be able to establish the run and give Manning some support in this one.

Keeping New York in third and manageable spots will open things up for Manning while also easing the Green Bay pass rush and the Quarter Back should be able to hit the likes of Odell Beckham Jr for some big gains against this Green Bay Secondary which have struggled. There are enough pass catching Receivers here to make the Giants dangerous and not simply an option to keep OBJ quiet having seen the Receiver go off being lined up in different spots on the field.

I have said I do think the Green Bay Packers will come through this tough Wild Card Game, but this might be too many points for them to cover. You can't ignore the fact that the Packers are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 home Play Off games when they have been set as the favourite, nor the fact that the Giants are 8-0 against the spread as the underdog in the Play Offs since Manning took over as Quarter Back.

The Giants have matched up well with the Green Bay Packers and I think the Offense will play better and more consistently at this time of the season as their past successes have shown. It should be a really fun game to watch and I will take the points with the Giants in this one as I look for the underdogs to show some bite on Sunday after two favourites complied on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 11.5 Points @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (January 7th)

The tennis tournaments that have opened the 2017 season get down to the business end of the week as at least three Finals are played on Saturday with two other events completing their Semi Final matches.

Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.

I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.


Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.

That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.

It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.

Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.

I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.

Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.

There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.

I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.


Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.

That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.

I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.

Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.

It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.

MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (January 6-9)

It has lost some of the shine of yesteryear, but I still love the FA Cup Third Round draw and then the first weekend of January which is reserved for that Round to be played. It might have something to do with my time growing up when the FA Cup not only meant something to most people, but was the one competition in which Manchester United actually used to have something approaching regular success when the League always seemed beyond their reach.

That has meant the Cup has imprinted on me and some of my favourite memories and goals for Manchester United have come in the FA Cup over the years. Winning last season after waiting so long was easily the best moment of the Louis Van Gaal era and the defence of the trophy begins on Saturday.

However it is clear that the FA Cup has gone down the list of priorities for many clubs in recent years with other competitions and avoiding relegation/earning promotion/finishing in the top four (delete as applicable) meant managers would rest players in this famous old Cup. The Third Round being played over the weekend following a hectic festive period hasn't helped, but I still think most fans love being in the Cup and having a chance to go all the way to Wembley Stadium in May.


The opening picks in January stunk to say the least and I am looking for much better for the rest of the month. This weekend is all about the FA Cup Third Round while I will then have a thread for the English Football League Cup Semi Final First Legs to be played next week.

Then we are back into the Premier League with some big games set for next weekend in a month where a number of the top six clubs will play one another. Hopefully this weekend can give us the start of the recovery from the opening picks and get this month back on track after a poor end to December too.


Manchester United v Reading Pick: The FA Cup might not have the same prestige as it did when I was growing up, but the fans still enjoy these Cup runs and most Manchester United fans will have appreciated winning the famous old competition last season.

That has something to do with how long it has been since Manchester United won the FA Cup and Jose Mourinho has shown that he wants to win everything they have entered this season. I still anticipate some changes to be made to the starting eleven with big games against Hull City and Liverpool to come later in the week and especially off the three games in a week they have just played.

However Jose Mourinho has also shown he is willing to play his best players in as many games as possible this season and Manchester United have won all 5 Cup games played at Old Trafford. Some of those have come by wide margins with four goals scored against Fenerbahce, Feyenoord and West Ham United and Reading have to be a little wary having conceded at least two goals in their last 4 away games.

Jaap Stam certainly has Reading playing with some confidence, but I also anticipate changes in the away side who have also had a busy week of football and have big League games to come. Stam made changes in the English Football League Cup loss at Arsenal earlier in the season and the League game coming up on Thursday has to be the bigger priority for the manager.

It should still be a decent Cup game with the changes in the home side expected to have an impact too. However I do think the home momentum will give Manchester United the edge and I will back them to win with a clean sheet as both Fulham and Leeds United have beaten Reading in recent games on their travels. Arsenal did the same in the League Cup and it looks a decent pick at almost odds against.


Blackpool v Barnsley Pick: Bloomfield Road could be a real equaliser with this pitch always on the verge of cutting up and that might be the best chance Blackpool have in upsetting Championship side Barnsley who have been impressing this season. It isn't that long ago that these clubs were operating at a similar level, but Blackpool have taken a step back while Barnsley look to have improved.

There are likely to be some changes made by both teams after a tough December, while some may think Barnsley being on the brink of the Play Offs in the Championship will influence their decision making in terms of the FA Cup.

I am not buying that so much with Lee Johnson likely to want to build some momentum and being upset by a League Two club is not the way to do that. Barnsley have plenty of goals in the side and will play an attacking brand of football, while they have won 3 of their last 4 away games which suggests they can do the same here.

It has been a little more difficult for Blackpool of late who have lost their last 2 games at Bloomfield Road and are in mid-table in League Two. I expect Barnsley are able to show the difference in level of quality both clubs have and can move through with a win without the need for a replay at odds against.


Bolton Wanderers v Crystal Palace Pick: I don't think it would surprise anyone to hear that this competition might not be a big deal for Crystal Palace and Sam Allardyce this season with the Premier League position precariously close to the bottom three. The Cup run to the Final last season will have given the fans a lot of joy, but Allardyce has been drafted in as manager to prevent relegation and won't be worried about the FA Cup as a distraction to his most immediate goal.

The one factor that has to be considered is that Allardyce won't want his squad of players to have their confidence dented any more than necessary by losing to League One level of opponents. I don't think that will influence his team selection with some key players already absent, but this becomes a very dangerous game for Crystal Palace against a confident and in-form Bolton Wanderers team.

Bolton Wanderers have won 10 in a row at home which means they will believe the upset is on here and the layers have given them a shot at producing one. They have been scoring goals at home, but Bolton Wanderers have been far from watertight and even a changed Crystal Palace team will feel they can create opportunities to score goals.

While the layers have got it right with the drift on the Crystal Palace to win price, I do think they are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals. I believe both teams will score at least once in this one and The Macron Stadium has a good playing surface which should mean there is a chance for the attacking football to shine here.

At odds against, I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Brentford v Eastleigh Pick: A Championship side hosting a non-League side has made Brentford obvious favourites to see off Eastleigh, but they will have to be careful. Last season Eastleigh pushed then Championship club Bolton Wanderers all the way to a replay and were barely outclassed over the two games.

However that should also mean Brentford are more focused as they look to book their place in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup this weekend. Being at home gives Brentford a considerable advantage compared with Bolton Wanderers who had to play the initial tie at Eastleigh this time last year, while the latter were also in arguably better form twelve months ago heading into the Third Round.

Wins at Swindon Town and Halifax Town have been solid results for Eastleigh who have a taste for a Cup shock, but they have lost 3 of their last 5 away games and will need to produce something special over ninety minutes to stay with Brentford. The home team have goals in them at Griffin Park and I do think it will be tough for Eastleigh to contain them throughout this one.

The question is can Brentford grind down Eastleigh and win by a comfortable margin? I think as long as Eastleigh don't score early, Brentford's superior fitness will tell at home and they can wear down this opponent. Brentford were upset by Walsall at home this time last season, but Walsall were considerably stronger than the Eastleigh team they will see this weekend and I think Brentford win by at least two goals in front of their own fans.


Brighton v MK Dons Pick: It has been confirmed by Chris Hughton that he is going to make changes to his squad with the Championship the priority for the season rather than a long FA Cup run. Of course he was always going to say he wants Brighton to go through to the next Round, but I don't think Hughton would be overly concern if they were to lose this game.

In saying that, I don't think Brighton will lose to the MK Dons who have been struggling and taking some heavy losses away from home. They will also be looking to the League and trying to avoid relegation to League Two having been playing in the Championship last season and I do think the focus might not be on this game which is not one of the more appealing Third Round ties the MK Dons could have got.

Despite the changes, I think Brighton are going to play their football in the manner they like to and I think they will create chances and score goals. They have beaten the MK Dons the last 2 times they have hosted them and I expect the home side to be too strong on the day.

The Asian Handicap will return half the stake if Brighton do only manage to win by the one goal, but I think they can make things a little more comfortable at The Amex Stadium and I will back them to win by a couple.


Everton v Leicester City Pick: On first glance Everton look a short price at odds on to win this game but I do think the press conferences led by Ronald Koeman and Claudio Ranieri have played a part in the prices. While Koeman has talked up the FA Cup, Ranieri has made it clear he is contemplating changes with Leicester City's Premier League survival in the balance at this moment in time.

Out of the two teams I would expect Everton to have the stronger starting eleven with this Cup being the best avenue for a successful season.

At least Leicester City still have the Champions League to play next month and I am not sure Ranieri's comments won't filter down to the players. That should mean Everton have more motivation and being at home should give them another edge even if they have not played Leicester City that well at home in recent games.

Ultimately I think Everton have a much more recognisable eleven starting and showed they can bully Leicester City if they are missing players like Robert Huth when they won 0-2 at The King Power Stadium on Boxing Day. With the likelihood of Leicester City making changes very high, I think Everton can be backed to win this FA Cup Third Round tie this weekend.


Huddersfield Town v Port Vale Pick: You have to say that Huddersfield Town continue to surprise in the Championship with some impressive results behind them which means they are up to 4th in the League table. With a chance of earning promotion to the Premier League, the FA Cup might be a distraction to David Wagner's side although the fans are looking forward to perhaps having a decent run in the competition.

The biggest tie Huddersfield Town fans have enjoyed in recent years was a Fourth Round one at The Emirates Stadium against Arsenal in 2011 and they have to look at this fixture as a chance to reach that stage again. Huddersfield Town hit the buffers a bit, but they look to be back on form and a team that can create plenty of chances should have too much for Port Vale who are having a difficult season in League One.

There is nothing to lose for Port Vale in this game, but they have taken some heavy losses of late and I am not sure they have enough to challenge Huddersfield Town. The 4-0 loss at Wimbledon would be particularly worrying as Port Vale have struggled for goals and even the expected changes should not slow down The Terriers too much.

The Third Round of the FA Cup can be difficult to get a read on the manager's but I think Wagner will understand the importance of Huddersfield Town keeping some momentum behind them and I like the home team to win. It will be tough at times, but I think Huddersfield Town wear down Port Vale and become the latest side to beat them by a couple of goals on their travels.


Millwall v Bournemouth Pick: There are a few Premier League clubs playing against teams from the lower Leagues this weekend in the FA Cup Third Round and there are a couple that people might have focused on and perhaps be expecting an upset.

The performances that Millwall have had at The New Den in recent weeks will have given them confidence when they get ready to take on Bournemouth. However I do think they are going to be playing a strong enough Bournemouth team who are doing well enough in the Premier League for Eddie Howe to perhaps focus on the FA Cup and so a good Cup run will only add to a growing CV.

Howe has been linked with the England job in the past and touted as a future Arsenal manager so adding silverware to a stellar job done at The Vitality Stadium will only increase his chances of taking a bigger job. I expect Bournemouth will play a team that is strong enough to win this game and they did win two away ties at lower League clubs in the FA Cup last season.

On both occasions Bournemouth came from behind to win those ties and I do think they will be too strong for Millwall on the day with decent weather likely to leave a good playing surface for the Premier League club to exploit. The price is just attractive enough on the Bournemouth win to back them here and I will take them to get the job done without the need for a replay.


Rotherham United v Oxford United Pick: This has all the makings of a potential upset as Rotherham United continue to struggle in the Championship and play a team from League One who will fancy their chances. Oxford United are not one of the leading contenders in League One, but they play good football and will have more confidence than Rotherham United which makes this a dangerous test for the home team.

One of the issues Oxford United do have is scoring enough goals and that might be a problem for them despite how badly Rotherham United have seemingly played all season. The home side concede too many goals and so you have to think Oxford United will have opportunities, but I also think Rotherham United can have success going forward.

The 4-5 loss to Morecambe at this Stadium in the League Cup shows what can happen in Rotherham United home games and goals have been flowing at both ends for a number of weeks. Oxford United have had some very good away results in the League and they have scored in four of their last five away games and I do think they can play more than their part here.

With Rotherham United scoring and conceding in 4 of their last 5 home games and the fact that they will be urged to push forward, I do think both teams score in this one. I will back a third goal to be shared out too as they have been in recent Rotherham United games and that looks a decent price if Oxford United have brought their shooting boots with them to Yorkshire.


Sutton United v Wimbledon Pick: This might not be the glamour tie that either of these clubs would have wanted, but both will think it presents a big chance to move into the Fourth Round of the FA Cup. For Wimbledon it would be the first time since their newly formed club has moved into that Round after the old Wimbledon magically won the Cup in 1988, and they return to the ground where this current Wimbledon played their first game fourteen years ago.

The magic of the Cup is still in the Wimbledon bones having recovered from large deficits in the last two Rounds to move into the Third Round. They are the favourites to win this tie, but Sutton United have to be encouraged by the fact that Wimbledon trailed Curzon Ashton 3-0 in the Second Round.

Of course less encouragement is the fact that Wimbledon scored four times in the last ten minutes to win that game 3-4, but it does show Sutton United could have success if they challenge them. 4 home wins in a row will give Sutton United further belief, but their run of 3 consecutive clean sheets here will be put to the test against this Wimbledon team.

However Wimbledon have not scored in 3 away games since putting four past Curzon Ashton and so there is hope for an upset in this one. I don't think Sutton United will be able to keep Wimbledon at bay, but I also think they will score and there is every chance this is a game filled with attacking football and chances at both ends.

That is what I am expecting and I am looking for the teams to find a way to share out three goals in this Third Round tie.


West Brom v Derby County Pick: Trying to work out what managers are going to do in the Cup competitions can be a big task on its own and that is the only issue clouding my judgement in this game. I would be surprised if Derby County were not making changes, but I am expecting Tony Pulis to pick a strong West Brom side with the FA Cup a genuine competition they can have a go at.

The Premier League looks to be well in hand for Pulis but obviously staying in the top flight is the priority for West Brom in August. Now they have 29 points on the board you have to think the FA Cup can increase in importance and West Brom will have a week before they are due to play again.

It certainly feels like West Brom will be keener on this Third Round tie than Derby County and The Baggies have been bouncing at home in recent weeks. They have won 4 of their last 5 at home and West Brom have scored at least three goals in all of those wins which should fill them with confidence.

I expect West Brom to be too good on the day and I think they can get the better of a Derby County team that perhaps is more focused on other things. The home team are odds on to win, but I think they can be backed to do that.


Preston North End v Arsenal Pick: In something of a surprise, Arsene Wenger has told the press that he is going to play a strong a team as possible in this FA Cup Third Round tie at Deepdale. I believe that tells us a lot about the pressure the manager feels under at The Emirates Stadium with another title challenge being derailed in the last month and winning silverware might be the only way to appease the growing support against him.

Going out in the Third Round to a Preston North End team who are mid-table in the Championship would be a huge blow to Wenger's chances of extending his stay as Arsenal manager beyond the end of this season. While he is resting Petr Cech, Laurent Koscielny and Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal should have enough quality on the field to beat this Preston North End.

The home side have been tough to beat at Deepdale this season although they have recently been crushed by Leeds United and Preston North End will give Arsenal something to think about here. I very much think they can play their part in the game, but Arsenal should have too much even without the likes of Sanchez and Mesut Ozil in the line up.

They beat Nottingham Forest 0-4 in the League Cup with a much changed line up, but I expect this Arsenal team to be stronger than the one that started that day. Nottingham Forest are of a similar level to Preston North End and I think Arsenal can snap a 3 game run without a win away from home with an impressive showing in the late Saturday offering.


Liverpool v Plymouth Argyle Pick: This is all about the team that Liverpool use in the FA Cup Third Round as to how comfortable, or not, the afternoon will be at Anfield. I do think Jurgen Klopp will make a number of changes to his first team, but there should be enough quality coming into the side to see the home side through with some comfort against League Two opposition.

These games can be difficult for Premier League teams as they are not used to the style of their opponents and fresh off a tough festive period. Changes made to the starting elevens can also have an impact on the rhythm of a team and that can make life difficult for the Premier League club if they can't get in control of the game early.

Liverpool have made fast starts under Klopp at Anfield and that style won't change in this one and it is up to Plymouth Argyle to stay in contention for as long as possible. This is a good chance for the Plymouth Argyle players to have an enjoyable afternoon in a big Stadium but it is likely to be a long afternoon for the League Two promotion chasers.

I expect enough notable names to start for Liverpool even with the League Cup Semi Final next on deck and a League game at Old Trafford to come next Sunday. That should give them the edge on the Asian Handicap to perhaps match the 3-0 win over Exeter City from last season in the FA Cup and I will back the home team to cover the number.


Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa Pick: Last season the FA Cup exit to Crystal Palace sparked a really poor run of form for Tottenham Hotspur and they won't want to snap the positive momentum they have built up right now. The FA Cup is arguably the third priority for Mauricio Pochettino, but he has a few days to ensure his squad is ready to take part in this Third Round tie and I do think a decent Tottenham Hotspur team will start.

Having a home game against lower League opposition should make for a good start for Tottenham Hotspur especially as this game likely means even less for Aston Villa than it does to the hosts. Winning a Cup is still missing from the Pochettino CV so I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to give this a go with the home draw a benefit to them.

Tottenham Hotspur have been in good enough recent form to think they can win this one with some comfort and they did beat Aston Villa fairly comfortably at White Hart Lane when they played in the Premier League last season. Aston Villa have just hit a bad patch of form of late and have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in the League and I am not sure Steve Bruce will be as keen for a Cup run as he was with Hull City last season considering the difference in League position for the clubs.

There will be some tight moments in this one as Aston Villa push forward, but I think Tottenham Hotspur will ultimately prove too strong and book their place in the FA Cup Fourth Round draw which will take place on Monday evening.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win to Nil @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barnsley @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers- Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brentford - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rotherham United-Oxford United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sutton United-Wimbledon Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

January Update: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)