It would have been an incredibly frustrating week if Andrey Rublev had not managed to win his Semi Final against Guido Pella on Friday, but ultimately it has still be a tough week.
The first week of the new tennis season can be tough to really get a read on and there are usually a number of upsets. That has shown up so far this week with some of the names that have reached the business end of the events, while the big names are all about getting ready for Melbourne and the Australian Open.
This week could have been worse, but I was hoping for a little more breaks when the big points came along, but that has ultimately not been the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: The best Semi Final to be played on Saturday comes at the ATP Brisbane event between Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios. Both players have plenty of fans who wish they can fulfil the talent they have, but it will be interesting which one is going to make their breakthrough at the Grand Slam level first.
Both Dimitrov and Kyrgios have had solid showings in the Slams before, but they have the kind of talent that has seen them both tipped to be Slam Winners.
I am still not convinced about Dimitrov because he can produce some sloppy moments, but his performance at the ATP Finals will have given him a boost in confidence. The Bulgarian has had to work hard to win his two matches so far this week, but Nick Kyrgios also has had a couple of long matches on his return from injury.
The Australian may not have a lot of good press, but his charisma certainly brings eyes onto the court for his matches. Kyrgios has a big all around game, but mentally there is plenty of room for improvement although I do think that will come with maturity as he understands what he wants from his tennis career.
While having a couple of good wins, I do think Kyrgios is still not quite up to full speed after making a return from an injury that ended in his 2017 season. At the moment Dimitrov is perhaps playing at almost his top level and I think he will make it 3-0 in the head to head against Kyrgios with a narrow 7-6, 6-4 win on Saturday.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was worried about the head to head between Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon when picking the Croatian to win their Semi Final. After dominating the first set I didn't feel so bad, but Cilic fell apart in the second two sets and that has seen the Frenchman through to the Final in Pune.
However it can't be ignored that Simon has clearly slipped from the player he was and he is not able to defend his serve as well as he once could. The World Ranking may improve at the end of this week, but this time he is facing Kevin Anderson who has beaten him in all three previous professional matches.
Th big South African is back up to Number 14 in the World Rankings thanks to a really good US Open when reaching the Final back in September. Anderson came into 2017 with a few injury issues, but he looks much healthier this season and he has come through three matches to reach the Final.
Anderson needed to rally to beat Benoit Paire on Friday, but he should have enough energy to produce his best tennis in this Final. The big serve makes it a little easier for Anderson to at least shorten points and I expect Anderson to really get his teeth into the Simon service games which can give him every chance to win and cover.
I do think Anderson will have enough chances to do that and it is all about continuing to produce the big time serves to set up plenty of short balls to put away. I just don't think Simon defends as well as he once did, and while Anderson is not the best returner on the Tour, he has been returning well enough this week to earn a 6-4, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 53.25% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Brisbane Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brisbane Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, 6 January 2018
Friday, 5 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 5th)
It has been a tough start in the tennis season for my Tennis Picks with little luck attached to the selections so far. You have to accept it will be up and down, but I do want a better year than the last two as I have perhaps changed the way I have approached things, or, more likely, I have not evolved with the tennis seasons as much as I should have done.
I have still been solid enough at the Grand Slam events so I am looking forward to the start of the Australian Open, but I would love to end this week with a few winners just for a boost in confidence.
A bit more luck and that should be the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I still can't get my head around Grigor Dimitrov being Number 3 in the World Rankings and he will have a few supporters in the outright markets in Melbourne in a couple of weeks time.
The Bulgarian should have been given a boost in confidence after winning the biggest title of his career at the ATP Finals in London at the end of the 2017 season. That may have played a part in his three set win over John Millman in the Second Round in Brisbane, especially as Dimitrov had to come from a set down to win a second set tie-breaker before coming through the match in the decider.
I still question whether Dimitrov has the mindset to avoid the lulls in matches which can prove so costly, especially when being forced to play more tennis than is perhaps needed to win matches. While the serve is a good weapon, Dimitrov needs to make sure he is making the right shot selections behind it to keep Kyle Edmund under pressure in this match.
There will be big hopes that Edmund can see his career kick on in 2018 and he has played well this week to beat a couple of players that could be amongst those in the 'Next Gen' to take the ATP forward in the years ahead. Edmund has needed three sets to beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hyeon Chung, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the run going in this Quarter Final.
Edmund can cause problems for Dimitrov, but I think the latter's superior returning can prove to be a difference maker. It can be tough to trust Dimitrov not to throw in a sloppy game which could cost him a set and thus this cover of the games, but I think he should have enough success on the return to work his way to a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: You have got to give Aliaksandra Sasnovich a lot of credit for the way she has battled through to the biggest Semi Final of her career, but there has to be something that has been left out on the court.
Sasnovich has come through the Qualifiers into the main draw, and she has now won four straight matches while coming from a set down. That has to have taken something physically and mentally from Sasnovich and I think Anastasija Sevastova is good enough to break her down.
The Latvian is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings thanks to a special run at the US Open last September, and Sevastova is perhaps playing with more confidence thanks to that performance. She has won all three matches this week without dropping a set and I do think Sevastova is going to be a little too good for Sasnovich on the day.
I would expect the Sevastova return and movement around the court to be an issue for Sasnovich and perhaps there will be some issues mentally as the Belarusian has to try and dig deep and come back again. Sevastova doesn't possess a great serve which should give Sasnovich a chance, but I do think the higher Ranked player is the fresher one on the court and that should see her move through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: If Serena Williams is not playing at the Australian Open, Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina will be amongst the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the season. They can set an early marker in this Semi Final in Brisbane and this has all the makings of a very good match.
Both players have decent serves, although the edge is given to Pliskova on this surface. However it is Svitolina who is the better defensive player and will believe she can earn the edge in the rallies which move past six or seven strokes.
The problem for Svitolina against an opponent like Pliskova is that a slightly under par serving day will allow her opponent to play some first strike tennis. That has been the issue when they have met in previous matches, although it was Svitolina who snapped a five match losing run against Pliskova by beating her last season in Rome.
That match was on the clay courts which are the weakest of the surfaces for Pliskova and instead this feels like a match that may follow the pattern of twelve months ago when the Czech player beat Svitolina in straight sets in the Semi Final in Brisbane.
It will likely be closer than it was that day, but I like Pliskova to win and cover the games in this one.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a good start to the 2018 season for Gilles Simon who looked to have slipped irreversibly in 2017. He has almost dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I do wonder if Simon is going to be thinking about calling it a day, perhaps even as soon as after the French Open in June.
However performances like he has had this week will have offered the Frenchman some encouragement that he can rediscover his best form. Simon has yet to drop a set in his three wins in Pune and the return game has been working really well.
That will be challenged by Marin Cilic who has also won his matches without dropping a set in what has looked a weak field from the off. The Croatian would have expected to be playing in the Final this week having previously begun seasons with impressive results, although the one concern has to be the poor head to head with Simon.
It has come down to Simon being able to produce enough balls back in court and seeing Cilic break down as he tries to hit closer and closer to the lines. This may not be the case any more with Simon perhaps losing half a step around the court and Cilic should be able to take advantage of that with his heavier groundstrokes.
I do think Simon can cause some problems for Cilic if the Croatian is not at his best, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough this week to beat a player who is on the slide. The concern has to be the head to head and wondering if Simon is the kind of defensive player that can wear down Cilic, but I think the higher Ranked player is going to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: The tournament in Doha usually produces a pretty good field for the opening event of the season, but this year it is perhaps lacking the same type of star power. That may have contributed to the first Semi Final to be played on Friday as Andrey Rublev takes on Guido Pella.
Rublev is a player who is likely to be amongst the best in the years ahead, but there is still some work to do for the young Russian to reach his full potential. He has played well in his Quarter Final win over Borna Coric, but Rublev rode his luck to beat Fernando Verdasco and he will have to make sure he is not having too many fluctuations in his play if he is going to beat a veteran of the Tour like Pella.
The Argentinian is only 27 years old, and he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and looking to make a move into the top 50 at the end of this week. It has been a good week for Pella having dominated the last couple of matches he has played with strong returning numbers, but he was also a little fortunate to come through a match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas earlier this week.
The lefty serve should give Rublev a few issues to deal with and the Russian's own serve can be a little erratic as he continues to grow into his body.
Overall I do think Rublev is the better hard court player of the two and I think he can work his way to the win in this one. It won't always be easy with the way Pella has been returning in the last couple of Rounds, but I think Rublev can find a way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The second Semi Final in Doha is the one the local fans are likely to be looking forward to a little more as the two players competing are much more well known names to the casual fans.
The early season form of Dominic Thiem continues to be a positive for a player who has tended to run out of gas at the back end of seasons thanks to a poor schedule for the year. The points earned early in the year have kept Thiem inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and he is a player that can produce some very good tennis on the hard courts.
The Austrian also has won all three previous matches against the enigmatic Gael Monfils who is now on the back end of his career. It's funny to think Monfils has hit 31 years old now, but he has made a positive return to the Tour this week after injury curtailed his 2017 season at the end of the US Open.
Monfils will have to step up his game a little more when he faces Thiem in the Semi Final, but he has played well this week. The wins have come against players Monfils would have expected to beat, but Thiem has proven to be a tough player for him to compete with considering the power and relative consistency the latter can produce.
He is also the better shot selector of the two playing in this Semi Final and has a serve that can keep Monfils under pressure and I think that shows up here. It will be closer than the 6-3, 6-2 win Thiem managed over Monfils at Indian Wells last March, but I do think Thiem will win and find a way to cover this number.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
I have still been solid enough at the Grand Slam events so I am looking forward to the start of the Australian Open, but I would love to end this week with a few winners just for a boost in confidence.
A bit more luck and that should be the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I still can't get my head around Grigor Dimitrov being Number 3 in the World Rankings and he will have a few supporters in the outright markets in Melbourne in a couple of weeks time.
The Bulgarian should have been given a boost in confidence after winning the biggest title of his career at the ATP Finals in London at the end of the 2017 season. That may have played a part in his three set win over John Millman in the Second Round in Brisbane, especially as Dimitrov had to come from a set down to win a second set tie-breaker before coming through the match in the decider.
I still question whether Dimitrov has the mindset to avoid the lulls in matches which can prove so costly, especially when being forced to play more tennis than is perhaps needed to win matches. While the serve is a good weapon, Dimitrov needs to make sure he is making the right shot selections behind it to keep Kyle Edmund under pressure in this match.
There will be big hopes that Edmund can see his career kick on in 2018 and he has played well this week to beat a couple of players that could be amongst those in the 'Next Gen' to take the ATP forward in the years ahead. Edmund has needed three sets to beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hyeon Chung, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the run going in this Quarter Final.
Edmund can cause problems for Dimitrov, but I think the latter's superior returning can prove to be a difference maker. It can be tough to trust Dimitrov not to throw in a sloppy game which could cost him a set and thus this cover of the games, but I think he should have enough success on the return to work his way to a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: You have got to give Aliaksandra Sasnovich a lot of credit for the way she has battled through to the biggest Semi Final of her career, but there has to be something that has been left out on the court.
Sasnovich has come through the Qualifiers into the main draw, and she has now won four straight matches while coming from a set down. That has to have taken something physically and mentally from Sasnovich and I think Anastasija Sevastova is good enough to break her down.
The Latvian is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings thanks to a special run at the US Open last September, and Sevastova is perhaps playing with more confidence thanks to that performance. She has won all three matches this week without dropping a set and I do think Sevastova is going to be a little too good for Sasnovich on the day.
I would expect the Sevastova return and movement around the court to be an issue for Sasnovich and perhaps there will be some issues mentally as the Belarusian has to try and dig deep and come back again. Sevastova doesn't possess a great serve which should give Sasnovich a chance, but I do think the higher Ranked player is the fresher one on the court and that should see her move through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: If Serena Williams is not playing at the Australian Open, Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina will be amongst the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the season. They can set an early marker in this Semi Final in Brisbane and this has all the makings of a very good match.
Both players have decent serves, although the edge is given to Pliskova on this surface. However it is Svitolina who is the better defensive player and will believe she can earn the edge in the rallies which move past six or seven strokes.
The problem for Svitolina against an opponent like Pliskova is that a slightly under par serving day will allow her opponent to play some first strike tennis. That has been the issue when they have met in previous matches, although it was Svitolina who snapped a five match losing run against Pliskova by beating her last season in Rome.
That match was on the clay courts which are the weakest of the surfaces for Pliskova and instead this feels like a match that may follow the pattern of twelve months ago when the Czech player beat Svitolina in straight sets in the Semi Final in Brisbane.
It will likely be closer than it was that day, but I like Pliskova to win and cover the games in this one.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a good start to the 2018 season for Gilles Simon who looked to have slipped irreversibly in 2017. He has almost dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I do wonder if Simon is going to be thinking about calling it a day, perhaps even as soon as after the French Open in June.
However performances like he has had this week will have offered the Frenchman some encouragement that he can rediscover his best form. Simon has yet to drop a set in his three wins in Pune and the return game has been working really well.
That will be challenged by Marin Cilic who has also won his matches without dropping a set in what has looked a weak field from the off. The Croatian would have expected to be playing in the Final this week having previously begun seasons with impressive results, although the one concern has to be the poor head to head with Simon.
It has come down to Simon being able to produce enough balls back in court and seeing Cilic break down as he tries to hit closer and closer to the lines. This may not be the case any more with Simon perhaps losing half a step around the court and Cilic should be able to take advantage of that with his heavier groundstrokes.
I do think Simon can cause some problems for Cilic if the Croatian is not at his best, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough this week to beat a player who is on the slide. The concern has to be the head to head and wondering if Simon is the kind of defensive player that can wear down Cilic, but I think the higher Ranked player is going to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: The tournament in Doha usually produces a pretty good field for the opening event of the season, but this year it is perhaps lacking the same type of star power. That may have contributed to the first Semi Final to be played on Friday as Andrey Rublev takes on Guido Pella.
Rublev is a player who is likely to be amongst the best in the years ahead, but there is still some work to do for the young Russian to reach his full potential. He has played well in his Quarter Final win over Borna Coric, but Rublev rode his luck to beat Fernando Verdasco and he will have to make sure he is not having too many fluctuations in his play if he is going to beat a veteran of the Tour like Pella.
The Argentinian is only 27 years old, and he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and looking to make a move into the top 50 at the end of this week. It has been a good week for Pella having dominated the last couple of matches he has played with strong returning numbers, but he was also a little fortunate to come through a match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas earlier this week.
The lefty serve should give Rublev a few issues to deal with and the Russian's own serve can be a little erratic as he continues to grow into his body.
Overall I do think Rublev is the better hard court player of the two and I think he can work his way to the win in this one. It won't always be easy with the way Pella has been returning in the last couple of Rounds, but I think Rublev can find a way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The second Semi Final in Doha is the one the local fans are likely to be looking forward to a little more as the two players competing are much more well known names to the casual fans.
The early season form of Dominic Thiem continues to be a positive for a player who has tended to run out of gas at the back end of seasons thanks to a poor schedule for the year. The points earned early in the year have kept Thiem inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and he is a player that can produce some very good tennis on the hard courts.
The Austrian also has won all three previous matches against the enigmatic Gael Monfils who is now on the back end of his career. It's funny to think Monfils has hit 31 years old now, but he has made a positive return to the Tour this week after injury curtailed his 2017 season at the end of the US Open.
Monfils will have to step up his game a little more when he faces Thiem in the Semi Final, but he has played well this week. The wins have come against players Monfils would have expected to beat, but Thiem has proven to be a tough player for him to compete with considering the power and relative consistency the latter can produce.
He is also the better shot selector of the two playing in this Semi Final and has a serve that can keep Monfils under pressure and I think that shows up here. It will be closer than the 6-3, 6-2 win Thiem managed over Monfils at Indian Wells last March, but I do think Thiem will win and find a way to cover this number.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Thursday, 4 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 4th)
It was a tough start to the Tennis season with the sole pick made on Wednesday failing to return a winner, but the events to open the 2018 season continue as we have reached the Quarter Final in some cases.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: There were some tough moments for Johanna Konta in the second half of the 2017 season, but her two wins in Brisbane will have given her a lot of belief. In both cases Konta has managed to win a deciding set, but now she has to face Elina Svitolina who I consider a possible Grand Slam Champion in the making in 2018.
Svitolina has been a dominant winner in her two matches so far this week, but there are still some questions about whether she is able to maintain the control in matches without the lapses of concentration.
That has been part of the reason Svitolina has yet to make a serious impact in a Grand Slam event, but I do think she is an ever improving player. The serve is solid enough when Svitolina is feeling her game, while her ability off the ground is going to make her very difficult to beat.
Johanna Konta also has a decent serve, but she has yet to really employ it as effectively as she would have liked in the tournament. The problem for Konta is that she needs to be better on the serve because she doesn't have the same consistency as Svitolina from the baseline and I do think that will prove to be the difference between the players.
Perhaps the tennis under the belt this week will also have a negative effect on Konta as a little fatigue in some tough conditions would not be a big surprise. I like Svitolina to win the battle of the breaks and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It's good to see Kaia Kanepi back on the Tour and playing some big time tennis and her run to the US Open Quarter Final has clearly got the confidence back into a good place.
The next few weeks are all about improving the World Ranking though and making sure Kanepi does not have to come through the Qualifiers like she did this week in Brisbane. Kanepi has been a dominant winner in each of her four matches this week, but the level of competition goes up again when facing Karolina Pliskova in the Quarter Final.
Pliskova beat Catherine Bellis very easily, and she has the kind of game that could be tough for Kanepi to deal with. The huge serve and the powerful forehand could give Pliskova the chance to dominate the rallies very early in the points, although Kanepi is likely going to put pressure on her opponent with her own serve too.
It won't be a match with a lot of long rallies and the player who can produce the most first strike tennis is going to be the one that makes it through to the Semi Final.
With that in mind, I would expect Pliskova to be the player to do that much more than Kanepi. The Pliskova serve is the superior weapon of the two and I think that is going to help her get past this opponent with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: There were some tough moments for Johanna Konta in the second half of the 2017 season, but her two wins in Brisbane will have given her a lot of belief. In both cases Konta has managed to win a deciding set, but now she has to face Elina Svitolina who I consider a possible Grand Slam Champion in the making in 2018.
Svitolina has been a dominant winner in her two matches so far this week, but there are still some questions about whether she is able to maintain the control in matches without the lapses of concentration.
That has been part of the reason Svitolina has yet to make a serious impact in a Grand Slam event, but I do think she is an ever improving player. The serve is solid enough when Svitolina is feeling her game, while her ability off the ground is going to make her very difficult to beat.
Johanna Konta also has a decent serve, but she has yet to really employ it as effectively as she would have liked in the tournament. The problem for Konta is that she needs to be better on the serve because she doesn't have the same consistency as Svitolina from the baseline and I do think that will prove to be the difference between the players.
Perhaps the tennis under the belt this week will also have a negative effect on Konta as a little fatigue in some tough conditions would not be a big surprise. I like Svitolina to win the battle of the breaks and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It's good to see Kaia Kanepi back on the Tour and playing some big time tennis and her run to the US Open Quarter Final has clearly got the confidence back into a good place.
The next few weeks are all about improving the World Ranking though and making sure Kanepi does not have to come through the Qualifiers like she did this week in Brisbane. Kanepi has been a dominant winner in each of her four matches this week, but the level of competition goes up again when facing Karolina Pliskova in the Quarter Final.
Pliskova beat Catherine Bellis very easily, and she has the kind of game that could be tough for Kanepi to deal with. The huge serve and the powerful forehand could give Pliskova the chance to dominate the rallies very early in the points, although Kanepi is likely going to put pressure on her opponent with her own serve too.
It won't be a match with a lot of long rallies and the player who can produce the most first strike tennis is going to be the one that makes it through to the Semi Final.
With that in mind, I would expect Pliskova to be the player to do that much more than Kanepi. The Pliskova serve is the superior weapon of the two and I think that is going to help her get past this opponent with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Wednesday, 3 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 3rd)
It feels like only yesterday that we were seeing the end of the 2017 Tennis season, but here we go again at the beginning of another long slog for the players around the world.
This has been a busy time with the festive period meaning spending time with family and that has been the main reason I have not got round to researching any picks so far this week in the opening tournaments of the 2018 season.
That does not mean I have not shown any interest in the matches though.
With the Australian Open beginning in less than two weeks time, this is the time to see how players have gotten through their intense work to get ready for the new season. Of course all of the tournaments in the next two weeks are to prepare mentally for the first Grand Slam of the season although it looks like the men's draw is going to be extremely lopsided with a few big names still struggling with injuries.
All eyes will be on the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and wondering if the two players who went into the 2017 season as the top two on the ATP can return and challenge the old guard of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal again.
The other big story will be Serena Williams who has been back on a tennis court for the first time since giving birth to her first child. However the American has yet to commit to the first Slam of the new season and that is likely to leave the women's draw as wide open as it has been since Williams has been absent.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Michael Mmoh: It was during the Australian swing on the Tour that Mischa Zverev found some form although that does mean he has plenty of Ranking points to defend over the next month. He has made a good start with a straight sets win in the First Round here in Brisbane and Zverev continues to be inspired by younger brother Alexander.
Zverev is favoured to beat Michael Mmoh in the Second Round even though the younger player has come through three matches to reach this stage of the tournament.
However Mmoh is facing his toughest challenge so far in the tournament and the American has not really had a lot of success at this level to this point of his young career. His serve is decent weapon, but I do wonder how Mmoh will cope with Zverev likely looking to get to the net and force his opponent to make a number of passes throughout the day.
A limited return game will need to be improved if Mmoh is to have a real impact at the main Tour level and it is a tough ask in this match. With Zverev hitting his spots and the lefty serve behind him, Mmoh might find it difficult to find the returns against someone who is also going to get up to the net and look to make his volleys.
The first set could be very close, but I do think Zverev is going to wear down Mmoh mentally in this one which will lead to a couple of loose service games. That is where the German can take advantage and help him win this match and cover the number in a 7-6, 6-4 win in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
This has been a busy time with the festive period meaning spending time with family and that has been the main reason I have not got round to researching any picks so far this week in the opening tournaments of the 2018 season.
That does not mean I have not shown any interest in the matches though.
With the Australian Open beginning in less than two weeks time, this is the time to see how players have gotten through their intense work to get ready for the new season. Of course all of the tournaments in the next two weeks are to prepare mentally for the first Grand Slam of the season although it looks like the men's draw is going to be extremely lopsided with a few big names still struggling with injuries.
All eyes will be on the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and wondering if the two players who went into the 2017 season as the top two on the ATP can return and challenge the old guard of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal again.
The other big story will be Serena Williams who has been back on a tennis court for the first time since giving birth to her first child. However the American has yet to commit to the first Slam of the new season and that is likely to leave the women's draw as wide open as it has been since Williams has been absent.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Michael Mmoh: It was during the Australian swing on the Tour that Mischa Zverev found some form although that does mean he has plenty of Ranking points to defend over the next month. He has made a good start with a straight sets win in the First Round here in Brisbane and Zverev continues to be inspired by younger brother Alexander.
Zverev is favoured to beat Michael Mmoh in the Second Round even though the younger player has come through three matches to reach this stage of the tournament.
However Mmoh is facing his toughest challenge so far in the tournament and the American has not really had a lot of success at this level to this point of his young career. His serve is decent weapon, but I do wonder how Mmoh will cope with Zverev likely looking to get to the net and force his opponent to make a number of passes throughout the day.
A limited return game will need to be improved if Mmoh is to have a real impact at the main Tour level and it is a tough ask in this match. With Zverev hitting his spots and the lefty serve behind him, Mmoh might find it difficult to find the returns against someone who is also going to get up to the net and look to make his volleys.
The first set could be very close, but I do think Zverev is going to wear down Mmoh mentally in this one which will lead to a couple of loose service games. That is where the German can take advantage and help him win this match and cover the number in a 7-6, 6-4 win in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Friday, 6 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 7th)
The tennis tournaments that have opened the 2017 season get down to the business end of the week as at least three Finals are played on Saturday with two other events completing their Semi Final matches.
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 6th)
Things could have turned around completely for this week if I had a little more fortune with the Aljaz Bedene pick on Thursday and he had covered in his win rather than throwing away a late break of serve.
Thursday still had a big impact on the earlier losses this week but I am looking to turn this week around completely over the next couple of days when the tournaments come to a close. We then head to a couple of events next week in the lead up to the draw for the Australian Open which takes place next week just a few days before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
One of the news stories that did pique my interest on Thursday was the news that last year's Junior Boy's Australian Open Champion has been charged with fixing a match. It is all alleged at the moment, but it would be a real eye opener for the authorities who have spent a year really burying their head in the sands about events that seemingly have been happening regularly for anyone who follows the right people on Twitter.
There are some people out there flagging up the 'dodgy' matches, but nothing has really been done about it in my opinion and now it will be interesting to see the follow up to this story regarding Oliver Anderson who is now going to be tarred with the brush of being a 'match fixer'. That will be the case even if this case is eventually thrown out and makes it a tough career for him going forward with every match scrutinised more than most.
Anderson was a player that people had some solid hopes for, but that looks a long way away at this moment.
On Friday we move onto the Quarter Finals in the cases of most of the tournaments being played this week, although we have also got to the Semi Final in a couple of the events. That means there are some big matches out on the courts as players look to throw down their markers for the 2017 Australian Open.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The way Stan Wawrinka recovered in his match against Victor Troicki and then took complete control of the match has to be a confidence boost for the Swiss player who will go into the Australian Open as the Number 4 Seed.
He has a chance to really lay down a marker for what he can achieve in Melbourne Park if he can go on to win the title in Brisbane. However Wawrinka has some big challenges to come even if I expect the first of those to be one that he can deal with relatively comfortably.
2017 could be a really big season for Kyle Edmund who is looking to take the next step in his career and was playing well before Lucas Pouille had to pull out of their Second Round match. Edmund will feel he can get a little closer to Wawrinka having played against him in Shanghai in a match that was closer than the final scoreline might have suggested.
He will need to have more success against the Wawrinka serve having struggled outside of one break of serve, especially as it may ease some of the pressure that Edmund will feel when trying to protect his own service games. I still think Edmund does play too many loose games on his own serve and someone like Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of those lapses of concentration if he is not being taxed too much on his own serve.
I do think this match is still a little early for Edmund if Wawrinka can play to a similar level as he did in the win over Troicki. While Edmund can have more points won on the return, I still believe Wawrinka can come through with a 63, 64 win to match the score in Shanghai.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: These players met in a pre-season tournament at the Mubadala Tennis Championships and it was Rafael Nadal who came through against Milos Raonic in three sets. Things are going to be a little different when they play in this Quarter Final, but I am going to back Nadal to come through with a victory and a cover.
The spread is a difficult one when you think of the way Raonic can serve and him bringing his very best in that department will make it very difficult for Nadal. However the Spaniard has tended to find a way to get himself into the points and will then feel he can out-rally Raonic, although the latter has been an improving player over the last twelve months.
My issue with Raonic is that he needs to be very close to his ultimate level if he is going to win these kind of events and Grand Slam events and that brings its own pressure. While we have seen Raonic produce some top tennis, notably at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals in November, that level is yet to be found consistently.
I also like the way Nadal has been playing this week having won the Mubadala Tennic Championships which will have given him confidence. The serve can still be a little bit of a concern for him, but Nadal has looked after that aspect of his game well enough to think he can win this match. It will be a battle, but I like Nadal to win a tie-breaker and use the momentum to find a break of the Raonic serve which helps him cover this number and move into the Semi Final in Brisbane.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who saw the Alize Cornet win over Dominika Cibulkova in the Quarter Final in Brisbane on Thursday will perhaps have seen the Frenchwoman at her very best. She was serving effectively until the middle of the second set and put Cibulkova under pressure on the return with some very clever shot selection allowing her to keep the Slovakian off-balance.
It is going to be a different kind of test for Cornet when she faces Garbine Muguruza who is capable of producing some huge first serves which will be much more difficult to fight off than the Cibulkova serve. The one concern that remains with Muguruza is whether she is capable of backing up those serves without the errors that have blighted her game over the last six months.
An impressive win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final might have given Muguruza a little more confidence in her ability to produce her best tennis when it matters. She will need to remain patient in this one against an opponent like Cornet who will look to redirect the pace back at the Spaniard and is also capable of making sure she gets more balls back in play than opponents expect.
Cornet has to show she has recovered from her tough Quarter Final which involved a lot of running around the court and both a physical and mental battle which she had to overcome. It can be difficult to do that without too much rest and I think that is a problem for Cornet in this one and I do think Muguruza will have a little too much for her.
I would imagine Muguruza is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one and she can come through with a 63, 64 win for a place in the Final in Brisbane.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: On Thursday I had Elina Svitolina on my shortlist to use the games she was being given to keep things close against Angelique Kerber, but I ultimately felt she needed at least one more game to do that. I was wrong considering Svitolina managed to upset the World Number 1 in their Quarter Final and backing up that victory is going to be a challenge for her.
Mentally it was a big win, but Svitolina has beaten Kerber while the latter has been World Number 1 in Asia after the US Open last season and did win her next match so that aspect isn't a concern. However Svitolina is 0-4 against Karolina Pliskova in their head to head and I do think the Czech player is going to take another step forward in her career in 2017.
Reaching the Final at the US Open in 2016 would have given Pliskova another dose of belief and she has the big serve and heavy forehand which is going to take her deep into tournaments through this season. Mentally she will be stronger with that run too as well as helping the Czech Republic to win the Fed Cup and I do think she has the power to give Svitolina a lot to think about and work out in this one.
I do think Pliskova could be a little better off the backhand and has to learn to deal with players extending rallies, but this is a shoot out and I expect Svitolina to break down a little more. Her serve is not as good as Pliskova's and at big moments I think Svitolina could find herself struggling to cope with the pressure at those times whereas Pliskova can get out of trouble with a big serve.
The head to head gives Pliskova a little more of a mental edge and I think she will battle through to a 75, 64 win and set up a big Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The run to the Quarter Final for Dudi Sela has come as a surprise when you consider he was an underdog in both of his first two matches in Chennai. Being an underdog in this Quarter Final won't bother Sela, but I do think Albert Ramos-Vinolas can get the better of him in this one.
It has been a good start to 2017 when you consider that Sela has generally spent his best moments on the Tour below the main ATP level and he only had 10 wins at this level through the whole of 2016. The hard courts are his favourite surface so Sela will have plenty of confidence to take into this match, especially in the manner he has won the last two matches.
The level does go up considerably when Sela takes on Ramos-Vinolas who is coming off a career year. The Spaniard might have his best results on the clay courts, but he has shown he can be effective on the hard courts when he has his lefty serve working well and I do think Ramos-Vinolas is going to be able to use the superior level he has been playing at to his advantage.
Ramos-Vinolas has had some solid results on the hard courts even if he did not have a great start to the 2016 season and I think this is a good chance to reach another Semi Final on the hard courts. Both players can have issues on the serve which the other has to look to expose, but I do think Ramos-Vinolas is the better player overall and he can show that over the course of three sets.
In his last eight wins on the hard courts, Ramos-Vinolas would have covered this number on six occasions and I do think he is the more likelier winner. Therefore I will look for him to cover the number in the win and move into the Semi Final.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I will be the first person to tell you that backing Benoit Paire isn't an easy proposition because you don't know when he will suddenly decide that he will throw in terrible shot selections and give away games without much effort.
There were moments in his Second Round win when it looked like Paire was on the brink of throwing away his serve, but he knuckled down at big moments and has to look at this tournament as one he can win. After saving all seven break points he faced on Thursday, Paire is yet to be broken in this tournament and he has to have the confidence to produce his best tennis when he needs it most in this Quarter Final.
There is also a chance that Aljaz Bedene could be a little fatigued having spent a lot longer on court on Thursday than he may have anticipated. While his two wins this week have been impressive, I would argue the level of competition is raised by at least a level in this one and Bedene can't continue to throw in a poor service game or two per set if he is going to upset the Frenchman.
I do think there will be moments when Bedene looks the better player, but I also believe he will give Paire a few opportunities in this one and I like the latter to eventually wear him down and come through. Bedene won a tight match between these players last year at Queens but that was on the grass which is not a surface Paire has shown much appetite for in the past.
The hard courts should favour Paire more and I think he can get the better of Bedene with the narrow cover also achieved.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The final pick of the day also comes from Chennai and I thought Roberto Bautista Agut might be at least a game bigger favourite to win this match against Mikhail Youzhny. I expect a margin of five games between these opponents over the course of this match so I will back the Spaniard to get the better of the veteran in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt that Bautista Agut and Youzhny are at different points in their career even if the latter had a better season in 2016 than most would have expected. Youzhny's wins this week have come against players he would have been expected to beat and so there is a different pressure on the Russian when going up against Bautista Agut.
Youzhny can still play some very good tennis and he is a fighter which means he should give Bautista Agut some problems against a serve which is not amongst the best on the Tour. However the style that Bautista Agut employs will mean he is going to believe he can out-last Youzhny when it comes to the rallies on the court and there should be plenty of those for the Spaniard to get his teeth stuck into.
The serve has been well protected by Youzhny so far this week, but I think Bautista Agut is the best returner he has faced and I expect there to be break point chances for the latter. I do think think Youzhny will have some opportunities too in a good looking match, but I do think Bautista Agut eventually comes through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 1.10 Units (44 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Thursday still had a big impact on the earlier losses this week but I am looking to turn this week around completely over the next couple of days when the tournaments come to a close. We then head to a couple of events next week in the lead up to the draw for the Australian Open which takes place next week just a few days before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
One of the news stories that did pique my interest on Thursday was the news that last year's Junior Boy's Australian Open Champion has been charged with fixing a match. It is all alleged at the moment, but it would be a real eye opener for the authorities who have spent a year really burying their head in the sands about events that seemingly have been happening regularly for anyone who follows the right people on Twitter.
There are some people out there flagging up the 'dodgy' matches, but nothing has really been done about it in my opinion and now it will be interesting to see the follow up to this story regarding Oliver Anderson who is now going to be tarred with the brush of being a 'match fixer'. That will be the case even if this case is eventually thrown out and makes it a tough career for him going forward with every match scrutinised more than most.
Anderson was a player that people had some solid hopes for, but that looks a long way away at this moment.
On Friday we move onto the Quarter Finals in the cases of most of the tournaments being played this week, although we have also got to the Semi Final in a couple of the events. That means there are some big matches out on the courts as players look to throw down their markers for the 2017 Australian Open.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The way Stan Wawrinka recovered in his match against Victor Troicki and then took complete control of the match has to be a confidence boost for the Swiss player who will go into the Australian Open as the Number 4 Seed.
He has a chance to really lay down a marker for what he can achieve in Melbourne Park if he can go on to win the title in Brisbane. However Wawrinka has some big challenges to come even if I expect the first of those to be one that he can deal with relatively comfortably.
2017 could be a really big season for Kyle Edmund who is looking to take the next step in his career and was playing well before Lucas Pouille had to pull out of their Second Round match. Edmund will feel he can get a little closer to Wawrinka having played against him in Shanghai in a match that was closer than the final scoreline might have suggested.
He will need to have more success against the Wawrinka serve having struggled outside of one break of serve, especially as it may ease some of the pressure that Edmund will feel when trying to protect his own service games. I still think Edmund does play too many loose games on his own serve and someone like Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of those lapses of concentration if he is not being taxed too much on his own serve.
I do think this match is still a little early for Edmund if Wawrinka can play to a similar level as he did in the win over Troicki. While Edmund can have more points won on the return, I still believe Wawrinka can come through with a 63, 64 win to match the score in Shanghai.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: These players met in a pre-season tournament at the Mubadala Tennis Championships and it was Rafael Nadal who came through against Milos Raonic in three sets. Things are going to be a little different when they play in this Quarter Final, but I am going to back Nadal to come through with a victory and a cover.
The spread is a difficult one when you think of the way Raonic can serve and him bringing his very best in that department will make it very difficult for Nadal. However the Spaniard has tended to find a way to get himself into the points and will then feel he can out-rally Raonic, although the latter has been an improving player over the last twelve months.
My issue with Raonic is that he needs to be very close to his ultimate level if he is going to win these kind of events and Grand Slam events and that brings its own pressure. While we have seen Raonic produce some top tennis, notably at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals in November, that level is yet to be found consistently.
I also like the way Nadal has been playing this week having won the Mubadala Tennic Championships which will have given him confidence. The serve can still be a little bit of a concern for him, but Nadal has looked after that aspect of his game well enough to think he can win this match. It will be a battle, but I like Nadal to win a tie-breaker and use the momentum to find a break of the Raonic serve which helps him cover this number and move into the Semi Final in Brisbane.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who saw the Alize Cornet win over Dominika Cibulkova in the Quarter Final in Brisbane on Thursday will perhaps have seen the Frenchwoman at her very best. She was serving effectively until the middle of the second set and put Cibulkova under pressure on the return with some very clever shot selection allowing her to keep the Slovakian off-balance.
It is going to be a different kind of test for Cornet when she faces Garbine Muguruza who is capable of producing some huge first serves which will be much more difficult to fight off than the Cibulkova serve. The one concern that remains with Muguruza is whether she is capable of backing up those serves without the errors that have blighted her game over the last six months.
An impressive win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final might have given Muguruza a little more confidence in her ability to produce her best tennis when it matters. She will need to remain patient in this one against an opponent like Cornet who will look to redirect the pace back at the Spaniard and is also capable of making sure she gets more balls back in play than opponents expect.
Cornet has to show she has recovered from her tough Quarter Final which involved a lot of running around the court and both a physical and mental battle which she had to overcome. It can be difficult to do that without too much rest and I think that is a problem for Cornet in this one and I do think Muguruza will have a little too much for her.
I would imagine Muguruza is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one and she can come through with a 63, 64 win for a place in the Final in Brisbane.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: On Thursday I had Elina Svitolina on my shortlist to use the games she was being given to keep things close against Angelique Kerber, but I ultimately felt she needed at least one more game to do that. I was wrong considering Svitolina managed to upset the World Number 1 in their Quarter Final and backing up that victory is going to be a challenge for her.
Mentally it was a big win, but Svitolina has beaten Kerber while the latter has been World Number 1 in Asia after the US Open last season and did win her next match so that aspect isn't a concern. However Svitolina is 0-4 against Karolina Pliskova in their head to head and I do think the Czech player is going to take another step forward in her career in 2017.
Reaching the Final at the US Open in 2016 would have given Pliskova another dose of belief and she has the big serve and heavy forehand which is going to take her deep into tournaments through this season. Mentally she will be stronger with that run too as well as helping the Czech Republic to win the Fed Cup and I do think she has the power to give Svitolina a lot to think about and work out in this one.
I do think Pliskova could be a little better off the backhand and has to learn to deal with players extending rallies, but this is a shoot out and I expect Svitolina to break down a little more. Her serve is not as good as Pliskova's and at big moments I think Svitolina could find herself struggling to cope with the pressure at those times whereas Pliskova can get out of trouble with a big serve.
The head to head gives Pliskova a little more of a mental edge and I think she will battle through to a 75, 64 win and set up a big Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The run to the Quarter Final for Dudi Sela has come as a surprise when you consider he was an underdog in both of his first two matches in Chennai. Being an underdog in this Quarter Final won't bother Sela, but I do think Albert Ramos-Vinolas can get the better of him in this one.
It has been a good start to 2017 when you consider that Sela has generally spent his best moments on the Tour below the main ATP level and he only had 10 wins at this level through the whole of 2016. The hard courts are his favourite surface so Sela will have plenty of confidence to take into this match, especially in the manner he has won the last two matches.
The level does go up considerably when Sela takes on Ramos-Vinolas who is coming off a career year. The Spaniard might have his best results on the clay courts, but he has shown he can be effective on the hard courts when he has his lefty serve working well and I do think Ramos-Vinolas is going to be able to use the superior level he has been playing at to his advantage.
Ramos-Vinolas has had some solid results on the hard courts even if he did not have a great start to the 2016 season and I think this is a good chance to reach another Semi Final on the hard courts. Both players can have issues on the serve which the other has to look to expose, but I do think Ramos-Vinolas is the better player overall and he can show that over the course of three sets.
In his last eight wins on the hard courts, Ramos-Vinolas would have covered this number on six occasions and I do think he is the more likelier winner. Therefore I will look for him to cover the number in the win and move into the Semi Final.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I will be the first person to tell you that backing Benoit Paire isn't an easy proposition because you don't know when he will suddenly decide that he will throw in terrible shot selections and give away games without much effort.
There were moments in his Second Round win when it looked like Paire was on the brink of throwing away his serve, but he knuckled down at big moments and has to look at this tournament as one he can win. After saving all seven break points he faced on Thursday, Paire is yet to be broken in this tournament and he has to have the confidence to produce his best tennis when he needs it most in this Quarter Final.
There is also a chance that Aljaz Bedene could be a little fatigued having spent a lot longer on court on Thursday than he may have anticipated. While his two wins this week have been impressive, I would argue the level of competition is raised by at least a level in this one and Bedene can't continue to throw in a poor service game or two per set if he is going to upset the Frenchman.
I do think there will be moments when Bedene looks the better player, but I also believe he will give Paire a few opportunities in this one and I like the latter to eventually wear him down and come through. Bedene won a tight match between these players last year at Queens but that was on the grass which is not a surface Paire has shown much appetite for in the past.
The hard courts should favour Paire more and I think he can get the better of Bedene with the narrow cover also achieved.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The final pick of the day also comes from Chennai and I thought Roberto Bautista Agut might be at least a game bigger favourite to win this match against Mikhail Youzhny. I expect a margin of five games between these opponents over the course of this match so I will back the Spaniard to get the better of the veteran in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt that Bautista Agut and Youzhny are at different points in their career even if the latter had a better season in 2016 than most would have expected. Youzhny's wins this week have come against players he would have been expected to beat and so there is a different pressure on the Russian when going up against Bautista Agut.
Youzhny can still play some very good tennis and he is a fighter which means he should give Bautista Agut some problems against a serve which is not amongst the best on the Tour. However the style that Bautista Agut employs will mean he is going to believe he can out-last Youzhny when it comes to the rallies on the court and there should be plenty of those for the Spaniard to get his teeth stuck into.
The serve has been well protected by Youzhny so far this week, but I think Bautista Agut is the best returner he has faced and I expect there to be break point chances for the latter. I do think think Youzhny will have some opportunities too in a good looking match, but I do think Bautista Agut eventually comes through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 1.10 Units (44 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Wednesday, 4 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 5th)
It was a bit of a frustrating day on Wednesday with some of the players being in a position to do much better when it came to clearing the numbers. Others threw in one really poor service game which cost them an opportunity to cover and I was a little disappointed with the returns.
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 4th)
The tennis tournaments in Auckland, Brisbane, Chennai, Doha and Shenzhen continue in the opening week of the 2017 season and the Hopman Cup is also in action. These tournaments will feature the biggest names on the ATP and WTA Tour this week before most will decide to have a rest next week ahead of the Australian Open beginning on Monday 16th January.
The Second Round matches will be either completed or begun on Wednesday as we reach the middle of the first week of the 2017 season and I will have picks from the various events being played.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The Ashleigh Barty story is a very interesting one with the player leaving what looked a promising tennis career to become a cricket player. She returned to the WTA Tour after a two year break and is still only 20 years old with a chance to make an impact on the Tour.
It does have to be mentioned that the majority of her early successes came on the Doubles Tour and Barty might actually be a better team player than a Singles one. That is not disparaging the young Australian, but I do worry about her ability to cover the court on the Singles Tour especially when up against the very best players on the Tour.
Barty will be playing the very best player in the Second Round in Brisbane as Angelique Kerber makes her first appearance of the 2017 season. 2016 will always be a memorable one for the German who will be entering the Australian Open as the World Number 1 in a Grand Slam event for the first time, as well as trying to defend the title she won twelve months ago.
The movement Kerber produces around the court has proved to be a real difference maker and I think she is going to put Barty into some tough positions while also making the youngster hit one more ball than she perhaps expects to when it comes to winning points. That is going to lead to errors and Kerber also has the quality to turn defence into attack very quickly which has helped her reach the top of the women's game.
I think that is going to be a key in this match and help Kerber come through with a fairly comfortable win after weathering the Barty storm. There will be some strong moments for Barty, but I believe Kerber will be able to wear her down and come through with a 64, 62 win and a place in to the Quarter Finals.
Kristyna Pliskova v Kai-Chen Chang: Seeing twin sister Karolina Pliskova take another step in a positive direction at the end of the 2016 season has to inspire Kristyna Pliskova in a bid to improve her Number 60 position in the World Rankings. She has a serve to rival Karolina's and it is coming from a lefty which makes Kristyna very dangerous, but she has yet to find the consistency on the ground to really make big leaps up the World Rankings.
This is going to be anything but an easy match against Kai-Chen Chang who had some strong results to finish up the 2016 season. That looks to have given Chang some confidence having already won three matches in Shenzhen and it makes her a big test for Pliskova.
These players met a few months ago and it was a tight match won by Pliskova. This looks like another that potentially goes the distance and it has to be said that the Pliskova first serve could be the difference maker in the match as it will allow her to earn a couple of cheaper points.
That eases the pressure at big moments and I think it could help Pliskova to narrowly find a way past Chang in this one. The latter will have to work hard for all she gets on the court and I believe that ultimately sees her come up short and I will back Pliskova in this pick 'em contest.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: A couple of seasons ago David Ferrer would be a big favourite to win a match like this, but the last few months have seen a regression from the Spaniard. There is clearly some fire left in the belly of the veteran after making a coaching change to perhaps reverse the natural arc of a career, and Ferrer did have an impressive First Round win over Bernard Tomic here in Brisbane.
Ferrer faces another Australian in the Second Round when meeting Jordan Thompson who put together some solid results at the back end of 2016 albeit at a lower level than the ATP Tour.
He had a solid First Round win and Thompson has some good shots in his locker which can give Ferrer trouble. The serve is important for Thompson to try and keep Ferrer on the back foot in this one but he has to make sure a high enough percentage of first serves in play to stop Ferrer from being able to step forward and attack him immediately.
The regression in the Ferrer play has to be a concern for the Spaniard and his fans going into the season, but I think he is still good enough to win matches like this. He served very well in his first match and I think Ferrer is capable of forcing Thompson to dig deep and try and win the longer rallies even if the unforced errors come a little more frequently from Ferrer these days.
Extracting errors from Thompson and making the Australian look to hit winners quicker than he may want to should lead to Ferrer being able to match the margin of victory that he had against Tomic in the First Round. I will back the veteran to come through with a cover in this Second Round match.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: The first match after a long lay off is always a challenge for the players beginning their return to the Tour and Stan Wawrinka could have hoped for an easier Second Round match. He does have a very strong record against Victor Troicki which will give Wawrinka the mental edge in this match, but he will have to produce something like his best tennis to win.
His opponent has a win under his belt from the First Round, and Troicki also won the title in Sydney at this time of the season in 2016. That was one of the successful tournaments that helped the Serbian move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings and Troicki will be Seeded at the Australian Open.
Troicki serves well and it does have to be said that Wawrinka can be a little passive when it comes to the return which will give Troicki a chance to dictate rallies. However Troicki never seems that far away from a mental collapse when playing some of the better players on the Tour and that has been the case when he has played Wawrinka.
Those problems against the top 10 players is shown up in Troicki's 9-60 career record against them, and he would have been 2-4 covering this number of games in a best of three set match against top 10 opponents in 2016. Stan Wawrinka was one of those players who wore down Troicki and I expect him to do the same in his opening match in Brisbane and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The head to head sees Nicolas Almagro leading Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-4 and it was the Spaniard who won the sole match between these veterans in 2016. That did take place on the clay courts at the French Open and that surface would be giving Almagro the edge.
I am not sure that is the case on the hard courts though and I think Kohlschreiber will have the advantage on a surface on which Almagro has really struggled over the last twelve months.
Even his win over Paolo Lorenzi saw Almagro come through some difficult moments and I think he just finds it a little tougher to find his rhythm on the faster surfaces. Almagro is just 9-11 on the hard courts since the 2014 season and that has to be a concern considering he should have the serve and the forehand to have success on the surface.
Kohlschreiber is definitely on the slide in his own career too, and he didn't exactly produce a strong set of results on the hard courts himself in the 2016 season. He doesn't match up that well with Almagro on the face of things, but half of his four wins over Almagro have come on the hard courts.
I just feel the German has still got a little more in the tank on this surface than Almagro and I expect that to make a difference between two well matched opponents. Kohlschreiber has to make sure he doesn't allow Almagro to dictate too many of the rallies by offering up too many second serves, but I think he can do that and I believe he can win this match in a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The first time I am taking the games in the 2017 season comes from a Second Round match in Doha when I will back Jiri Vesely to keep things competitive against Tomas Berdych. It does have to be said that Vesely has yet to come close to fulfilling the potential he has, but he has pushed Berdych in their last two matches and can give his compatriot something to think about in this one.
Vesely is a big man and a lefty, but he needs to get more out of the first serve in 2017 if he wants to show real improvement on the court. The younger player should be well rested having had his First Round match a couple of days ago, and I do think he can expose some of the movement in the Berdych game by serving big and following it up with some big groundstrokes.
The length also means Vesely can get a few more balls back in play on the return of serve which has given Berdych problems in their two matches in 2016. Both went the distance at Wimbledon and Shenzhen and Vesely can certainly push him into a deciding set in this one.
A key to the number is Vesely serving well and making sure he takes the chances when they are presented on the return of serve. There is little doubt in my mind that Berdych remains the superior player at this moment of time and also has the mental edge having won all three previous matches against his compatriot. However I think this is a decent match up for Vesely if he is limiting his unforced errors and I will take the games and look for a close match.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Match from Tuesday
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 9.57% Yield)
The Second Round matches will be either completed or begun on Wednesday as we reach the middle of the first week of the 2017 season and I will have picks from the various events being played.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The Ashleigh Barty story is a very interesting one with the player leaving what looked a promising tennis career to become a cricket player. She returned to the WTA Tour after a two year break and is still only 20 years old with a chance to make an impact on the Tour.
It does have to be mentioned that the majority of her early successes came on the Doubles Tour and Barty might actually be a better team player than a Singles one. That is not disparaging the young Australian, but I do worry about her ability to cover the court on the Singles Tour especially when up against the very best players on the Tour.
Barty will be playing the very best player in the Second Round in Brisbane as Angelique Kerber makes her first appearance of the 2017 season. 2016 will always be a memorable one for the German who will be entering the Australian Open as the World Number 1 in a Grand Slam event for the first time, as well as trying to defend the title she won twelve months ago.
The movement Kerber produces around the court has proved to be a real difference maker and I think she is going to put Barty into some tough positions while also making the youngster hit one more ball than she perhaps expects to when it comes to winning points. That is going to lead to errors and Kerber also has the quality to turn defence into attack very quickly which has helped her reach the top of the women's game.
I think that is going to be a key in this match and help Kerber come through with a fairly comfortable win after weathering the Barty storm. There will be some strong moments for Barty, but I believe Kerber will be able to wear her down and come through with a 64, 62 win and a place in to the Quarter Finals.
Kristyna Pliskova v Kai-Chen Chang: Seeing twin sister Karolina Pliskova take another step in a positive direction at the end of the 2016 season has to inspire Kristyna Pliskova in a bid to improve her Number 60 position in the World Rankings. She has a serve to rival Karolina's and it is coming from a lefty which makes Kristyna very dangerous, but she has yet to find the consistency on the ground to really make big leaps up the World Rankings.
This is going to be anything but an easy match against Kai-Chen Chang who had some strong results to finish up the 2016 season. That looks to have given Chang some confidence having already won three matches in Shenzhen and it makes her a big test for Pliskova.
These players met a few months ago and it was a tight match won by Pliskova. This looks like another that potentially goes the distance and it has to be said that the Pliskova first serve could be the difference maker in the match as it will allow her to earn a couple of cheaper points.
That eases the pressure at big moments and I think it could help Pliskova to narrowly find a way past Chang in this one. The latter will have to work hard for all she gets on the court and I believe that ultimately sees her come up short and I will back Pliskova in this pick 'em contest.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: A couple of seasons ago David Ferrer would be a big favourite to win a match like this, but the last few months have seen a regression from the Spaniard. There is clearly some fire left in the belly of the veteran after making a coaching change to perhaps reverse the natural arc of a career, and Ferrer did have an impressive First Round win over Bernard Tomic here in Brisbane.
Ferrer faces another Australian in the Second Round when meeting Jordan Thompson who put together some solid results at the back end of 2016 albeit at a lower level than the ATP Tour.
He had a solid First Round win and Thompson has some good shots in his locker which can give Ferrer trouble. The serve is important for Thompson to try and keep Ferrer on the back foot in this one but he has to make sure a high enough percentage of first serves in play to stop Ferrer from being able to step forward and attack him immediately.
The regression in the Ferrer play has to be a concern for the Spaniard and his fans going into the season, but I think he is still good enough to win matches like this. He served very well in his first match and I think Ferrer is capable of forcing Thompson to dig deep and try and win the longer rallies even if the unforced errors come a little more frequently from Ferrer these days.
Extracting errors from Thompson and making the Australian look to hit winners quicker than he may want to should lead to Ferrer being able to match the margin of victory that he had against Tomic in the First Round. I will back the veteran to come through with a cover in this Second Round match.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: The first match after a long lay off is always a challenge for the players beginning their return to the Tour and Stan Wawrinka could have hoped for an easier Second Round match. He does have a very strong record against Victor Troicki which will give Wawrinka the mental edge in this match, but he will have to produce something like his best tennis to win.
His opponent has a win under his belt from the First Round, and Troicki also won the title in Sydney at this time of the season in 2016. That was one of the successful tournaments that helped the Serbian move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings and Troicki will be Seeded at the Australian Open.
Troicki serves well and it does have to be said that Wawrinka can be a little passive when it comes to the return which will give Troicki a chance to dictate rallies. However Troicki never seems that far away from a mental collapse when playing some of the better players on the Tour and that has been the case when he has played Wawrinka.
Those problems against the top 10 players is shown up in Troicki's 9-60 career record against them, and he would have been 2-4 covering this number of games in a best of three set match against top 10 opponents in 2016. Stan Wawrinka was one of those players who wore down Troicki and I expect him to do the same in his opening match in Brisbane and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The head to head sees Nicolas Almagro leading Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-4 and it was the Spaniard who won the sole match between these veterans in 2016. That did take place on the clay courts at the French Open and that surface would be giving Almagro the edge.
I am not sure that is the case on the hard courts though and I think Kohlschreiber will have the advantage on a surface on which Almagro has really struggled over the last twelve months.
Even his win over Paolo Lorenzi saw Almagro come through some difficult moments and I think he just finds it a little tougher to find his rhythm on the faster surfaces. Almagro is just 9-11 on the hard courts since the 2014 season and that has to be a concern considering he should have the serve and the forehand to have success on the surface.
Kohlschreiber is definitely on the slide in his own career too, and he didn't exactly produce a strong set of results on the hard courts himself in the 2016 season. He doesn't match up that well with Almagro on the face of things, but half of his four wins over Almagro have come on the hard courts.
I just feel the German has still got a little more in the tank on this surface than Almagro and I expect that to make a difference between two well matched opponents. Kohlschreiber has to make sure he doesn't allow Almagro to dictate too many of the rallies by offering up too many second serves, but I think he can do that and I believe he can win this match in a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The first time I am taking the games in the 2017 season comes from a Second Round match in Doha when I will back Jiri Vesely to keep things competitive against Tomas Berdych. It does have to be said that Vesely has yet to come close to fulfilling the potential he has, but he has pushed Berdych in their last two matches and can give his compatriot something to think about in this one.
Vesely is a big man and a lefty, but he needs to get more out of the first serve in 2017 if he wants to show real improvement on the court. The younger player should be well rested having had his First Round match a couple of days ago, and I do think he can expose some of the movement in the Berdych game by serving big and following it up with some big groundstrokes.
The length also means Vesely can get a few more balls back in play on the return of serve which has given Berdych problems in their two matches in 2016. Both went the distance at Wimbledon and Shenzhen and Vesely can certainly push him into a deciding set in this one.
A key to the number is Vesely serving well and making sure he takes the chances when they are presented on the return of serve. There is little doubt in my mind that Berdych remains the superior player at this moment of time and also has the mental edge having won all three previous matches against his compatriot. However I think this is a decent match up for Vesely if he is limiting his unforced errors and I will take the games and look for a close match.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Match from Tuesday
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 9.57% Yield)
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