Tennis Picks 2020 (February 8th)

The poor start looks some way behind us coming to the end of the week and it was a decent Friday which has completed the turn around.

It is good to see the formula being used as one that is still helping produce a profit, although I don't think early February is the time to get too excited about results. As I say many times over the course of eleven months, the Tennis Tour is a very long season and it is only going to be a successful one if you can get out of any negative ruts without spiralling out of control first.


We are down to the final four at the three ATP tournaments on Saturday and so the Tennis Picks over the next two days might be a little limited.

The two Semi Final matches at ATP Montpellier look difficult to call and I will take a look at the ATP Cordoba Semi Finals when the markets have been formulated. However, I do think we can take a side in both Semi Final matches at ATP Pune which can be read below.

I will add the Weekly Totals at the very least to this thread once the Friday matches are completed and any Picks from Cordoba will also be placed here at that time.


MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Egor Gerasimov @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-10, + 1.82 Units (44 Units Staked, + 4.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 7th)

I have wanted to have a slight mental reset in the last couple of days and that has been the main reason I have not wrote out full analysis from the matches being selected for the Tennis Picks.

I am likely going to keep that going for the remainder of this week as the three tournaments in Cordoba, Montpellier and Pune are concluded, but I expect to have a fuller Football post up with Fantasy Football thoughts from the GameWeek being split over two weekends.

Next week we get the first ATP 500 event of the season in Rotterdam and the WTA Tour will also be returning as they get ready for some big tournaments to be played through the remainder of the month. At that point I would expect to have some fuller threads for the Tennis Picks going through the rest of the month barring anything unforeseen cropping up.


A brutally slow start in the first couple of days after the Australian Open has made it a difficult week, but things have just begun to pick up in the last couple of days. I will have the updated totals from the week once Diego Sebastian Schwartzman's match against Jaume Munar has been completed, while any Picks that need to be added from Montpellier and Cordoba will be placed in this thread once the markets have been put together.


MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ricardas Berankis @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Marcora + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Soon Woo Kwon @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrej Martin + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 6th)

The remainder of the Second Round matches in Cordoba, Montpellier and Pune are going to be played on Thursday as the three ATP tournaments continue this week.

The Fed Cup will begin this weekend which is the reason there are no WTA events scheduled for this week, but there are some big tournaments to be played in the remainder of the month including the Middle East events in Doha and Dubai.

We didn't have the big, big names out on Tour this past week, but it is an important one for those who are playing as they bid to improve Rankings which in turn leads to better Grand Slam draws. The Quarter Final line up in all three tournaments will be set by the end of Thursday and you can see my Picks from the remaining Second Round matches below.

I will add the Weekly Update on Thursday morning when the Cordoba Picks from Wednesday have been completed.


MY PICKS: Egor Gerasimov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Soon Woo Kwon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-6, - 7.36 Units (18 Units Staked, - 40.89% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 3rd)

There will be a much fuller thread for the Tuesday Tennis matches as the ATP Tour moves past the Australian Open with three events being played this week.

Unsurprisingly most of the big names are going to be resting following their exploits in Melbourne, but for many others this represents a week in which they can try and put some strong Ranking points on the board and also build some confidence for bigger tournaments to come later this month and beyond in the 2020 season.

We don't have a long list of First Round matches on Monday, but I don't have the time to write out full analysis for these matches and will just place my Tennis Picks below.

MY PICKS: Salvatore Caruso - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (January 6th)

It would have been an incredibly frustrating week if Andrey Rublev had not managed to win his Semi Final against Guido Pella on Friday, but ultimately it has still be a tough week.

The first week of the new tennis season can be tough to really get a read on and there are usually a number of upsets. That has shown up so far this week with some of the names that have reached the business end of the events, while the big names are all about getting ready for Melbourne and the Australian Open.

This week could have been worse, but I was hoping for a little more breaks when the big points came along, but that has ultimately not been the case.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: The best Semi Final to be played on Saturday comes at the ATP Brisbane event between Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios. Both players have plenty of fans who wish they can fulfil the talent they have, but it will be interesting which one is going to make their breakthrough at the Grand Slam level first.

Both Dimitrov and Kyrgios have had solid showings in the Slams before, but they have the kind of talent that has seen them both tipped to be Slam Winners.

I am still not convinced about Dimitrov because he can produce some sloppy moments, but his performance at the ATP Finals will have given him a boost in confidence. The Bulgarian has had to work hard to win his two matches so far this week, but Nick Kyrgios also has had a couple of long matches on his return from injury.

The Australian may not have a lot of good press, but his charisma certainly brings eyes onto the court for his matches. Kyrgios has a big all around game, but mentally there is plenty of room for improvement although I do think that will come with maturity as he understands what he wants from his tennis career.

While having a couple of good wins, I do think Kyrgios is still not quite up to full speed after making a return from an injury that ended in his 2017 season. At the moment Dimitrov is perhaps playing at almost his top level and I think he will make it 3-0 in the head to head against Kyrgios with a narrow 7-6, 6-4 win on Saturday.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was worried about the head to head between Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon when picking the Croatian to win their Semi Final. After dominating the first set I didn't feel so bad, but Cilic fell apart in the second two sets and that has seen the Frenchman through to the Final in Pune.

However it can't be ignored that Simon has clearly slipped from the player he was and he is not able to defend his serve as well as he once could. The World Ranking may improve at the end of this week, but this time he is facing Kevin Anderson who has beaten him in all three previous professional matches.

Th big South African is back up to Number 14 in the World Rankings thanks to a really good US Open when reaching the Final back in September. Anderson came into 2017 with a few injury issues, but he looks much healthier this season and he has come through three matches to reach the Final.

Anderson needed to rally to beat Benoit Paire on Friday, but he should have enough energy to produce his best tennis in this Final. The big serve makes it a little easier for Anderson to at least shorten points and I expect Anderson to really get his teeth into the Simon service games which can give him every chance to win and cover.

I do think Anderson will have enough chances to do that and it is all about continuing to produce the big time serves to set up plenty of short balls to put away. I just don't think Simon defends as well as he once did, and while Anderson is not the best returner on the Tour, he has been returning well enough this week to earn a 6-4, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 53.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (January 5th)

It has been a tough start in the tennis season for my Tennis Picks with little luck attached to the selections so far. You have to accept it will be up and down, but I do want a better year than the last two as I have perhaps changed the way I have approached things, or, more likely, I have not evolved with the tennis seasons as much as I should have done.

I have still been solid enough at the Grand Slam events so I am looking forward to the start of the Australian Open, but I would love to end this week with a few winners just for a boost in confidence.

A bit more luck and that should be the case.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I still can't get my head around Grigor Dimitrov being Number 3 in the World Rankings and he will have a few supporters in the outright markets in Melbourne in a couple of weeks time.

The Bulgarian should have been given a boost in confidence after winning the biggest title of his career at the ATP Finals in London at the end of the 2017 season. That may have played a part in his three set win over John Millman in the Second Round in Brisbane, especially as Dimitrov had to come from a set down to win a second set tie-breaker before coming through the match in the decider.

I still question whether Dimitrov has the mindset to avoid the lulls in matches which can prove so costly, especially when being forced to play more tennis than is perhaps needed to win matches. While the serve is a good weapon, Dimitrov needs to make sure he is making the right shot selections behind it to keep Kyle Edmund under pressure in this match.

There will be big hopes that Edmund can see his career kick on in 2018 and he has played well this week to beat a couple of players that could be amongst those in the 'Next Gen' to take the ATP forward in the years ahead. Edmund has needed three sets to beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hyeon Chung, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the run going in this Quarter Final.

Edmund can cause problems for Dimitrov, but I think the latter's superior returning can prove to be a difference maker. It can be tough to trust Dimitrov not to throw in a sloppy game which could cost him a set and thus this cover of the games, but I think he should have enough success on the return to work his way to a 7-6, 6-3 win.


Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: You have got to give Aliaksandra Sasnovich a lot of credit for the way she has battled through to the biggest Semi Final of her career, but there has to be something that has been left out on the court.

Sasnovich has come through the Qualifiers into the main draw, and she has now won four straight matches while coming from a set down. That has to have taken something physically and mentally from Sasnovich and I think Anastasija Sevastova is good enough to break her down.

The Latvian is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings thanks to a special run at the US Open last September, and Sevastova is perhaps playing with more confidence thanks to that performance. She has won all three matches this week without dropping a set and I do think Sevastova is going to be a little too good for Sasnovich on the day.

I would expect the Sevastova return and movement around the court to be an issue for Sasnovich and perhaps there will be some issues mentally as the Belarusian has to try and dig deep and come back again. Sevastova doesn't possess a great serve which should give Sasnovich a chance, but I do think the higher Ranked player is the fresher one on the court and that should see her move through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: If Serena Williams is not playing at the Australian Open, Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina will be amongst the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the season. They can set an early marker in this Semi Final in Brisbane and this has all the makings of a very good match.

Both players have decent serves, although the edge is given to Pliskova on this surface. However it is Svitolina who is the better defensive player and will believe she can earn the edge in the rallies which move past six or seven strokes.

The problem for Svitolina against an opponent like Pliskova is that a slightly under par serving day will allow her opponent to play some first strike tennis. That has been the issue when they have met in previous matches, although it was Svitolina who snapped a five match losing run against Pliskova by beating her last season in Rome.

That match was on the clay courts which are the weakest of the surfaces for Pliskova and instead this feels like a match that may follow the pattern of twelve months ago when the Czech player beat Svitolina in straight sets in the Semi Final in Brisbane.

It will likely be closer than it was that day, but I like Pliskova to win and cover the games in this one.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a good start to the 2018 season for Gilles Simon who looked to have slipped irreversibly in 2017. He has almost dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I do wonder if Simon is going to be thinking about calling it a day, perhaps even as soon as after the French Open in June.

However performances like he has had this week will have offered the Frenchman some encouragement that he can rediscover his best form. Simon has yet to drop a set in his three wins in Pune and the return game has been working really well.

That will be challenged by Marin Cilic who has also won his matches without dropping a set in what has looked a weak field from the off. The Croatian would have expected to be playing in the Final this week having previously begun seasons with impressive results, although the one concern has to be the poor head to head with Simon.

It has come down to Simon being able to produce enough balls back in court and seeing Cilic break down as he tries to hit closer and closer to the lines. This may not be the case any more with Simon perhaps losing half a step around the court and Cilic should be able to take advantage of that with his heavier groundstrokes.

I do think Simon can cause some problems for Cilic if the Croatian is not at his best, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough this week to beat a player who is on the slide. The concern has to be the head to head and wondering if Simon is the kind of defensive player that can wear down Cilic, but I think the higher Ranked player is going to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: The tournament in Doha usually produces a pretty good field for the opening event of the season, but this year it is perhaps lacking the same type of star power. That may have contributed to the first Semi Final to be played on Friday as Andrey Rublev takes on Guido Pella.

Rublev is a player who is likely to be amongst the best in the years ahead, but there is still some work to do for the young Russian to reach his full potential. He has played well in his Quarter Final win over Borna Coric, but Rublev rode his luck to beat Fernando Verdasco and he will have to make sure he is not having too many fluctuations in his play if he is going to beat a veteran of the Tour like Pella.

The Argentinian is only 27 years old, and he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and looking to make a move into the top 50 at the end of this week. It has been a good week for Pella having dominated the last couple of matches he has played with strong returning numbers, but he was also a little fortunate to come through a match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas earlier this week.

The lefty serve should give Rublev a few issues to deal with and the Russian's own serve can be a little erratic as he continues to grow into his body.

Overall I do think Rublev is the better hard court player of the two and I think he can work his way to the win in this one. It won't always be easy with the way Pella has been returning in the last couple of Rounds, but I think Rublev can find a way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.


Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The second Semi Final in Doha is the one the local fans are likely to be looking forward to a little more as the two players competing are much more well known names to the casual fans.

The early season form of Dominic Thiem continues to be a positive for a player who has tended to run out of gas at the back end of seasons thanks to a poor schedule for the year. The points earned early in the year have kept Thiem inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and he is a player that can produce some very good tennis on the hard courts.

The Austrian also has won all three previous matches against the enigmatic Gael Monfils who is now on the back end of his career. It's funny to think Monfils has hit 31 years old now, but he has made a positive return to the Tour this week after injury curtailed his 2017 season at the end of the US Open.

Monfils will have to step up his game a little more when he faces Thiem in the Semi Final, but he has played well this week. The wins have come against players Monfils would have expected to beat, but Thiem has proven to be a tough player for him to compete with considering the power and relative consistency the latter can produce.

He is also the better shot selector of the two playing in this Semi Final and has a serve that can keep Monfils under pressure and I think that shows up here. It will be closer than the 6-3, 6-2 win Thiem managed over Monfils at Indian Wells last March, but I do think Thiem will win and find a way to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)