Tennis Picks 2023 (February 8th)

This has been a week in which I have largely been keeping an eye out on the opening matches at the five tournaments being played and that is because there have not been a lot of options that have hit my criteria to be down as a Tennis Pick.

Some quality players are looking to build some Ranking points, but the lines have been pretty tight, while the majority of the First Round and Second Round matches that have been played have been tough for me to get a really good read on.

The biggest event of the week is the WTA tournament in Abu Dhabi, where a number of top 20 Ranked players are playing, and that is where the focus for the Tennis Picks are for Wednesday.

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: Being inside the top ten of the World Rankings is clearly a positive for any player, but Belinda Bencic must feel her chances of winning a first Grand Slam are getting longer and longer in each passing season. She opened 2023 in pretty strong form with a defeat to Iga Swiatek the only one before the Australian Open, but the Swiss Miss was beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in Melbourne and her wait for a Slam goes on.

A glass half full kind of character would at least point out that the two defeats suffered by Belinda Bencic this season have both come against top quality opponents. And Sabalenka going on to win the Australian Open might suggest that Belinda Bencic is not that far away when it comes to winning a Grand Slam in what is a very open WTA Tour.

Belinda Bencic has shown she has an all-court game with some decent clay court results and she will look at February and March as an opportunity to build some momentum before the run towards the French Open begins. Winning a title in Abu Dhabi at a WTA 500 level will be a real boost for the overall confidence and I do think Bencic is rightly put down as the favourite to win this week.

However, she cannot expect players to roll over for her and this is the first match that Belinda Bencic will have played since her disappointing exit at the Australian Open. On the other hand, Marta Kostyuk reached the Quarter Final in Hua Hin last week and has already won a First Round match here in Abu Dhabi while Bencic was receiving a Bye into the Second Round.

The young Ukrainian has perhaps been at the forefront of other tennis discussions rather than those focused on her actual play, but that leadership quality will help Marta Kostyuk in the future. She has long been seen as a potential Grand Slam Champion and the 20 year old has shown the kind of level she can produce when she is at her best.

Consistency is going to be the key and Marta Kostyuk has yet to find that as often as she would like- her numbers have been decent on the hard courts since the start of the 2023 season, but five of her nine wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100 and the 4-4 record against the stronger players on the Tour is less encouraging.

The returning numbers have not been good enough as far as Kostyuk is concerned, while she has a 0-5 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. In that time Marta Kostyuk has won a single set, and her second serve has been a considerable weakness in those matches, which is an area that Belinda Bencic will look to exploit.

Belinda Bencic serves well to put the pressure on her opponents, but there is room for improvement when it comes to the points won against serve. However, there has been a big leap from her overall returning numbers to when Bencic faces players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I do think she can beat Marta Kostyuk as she did in Miami last year.

This one is not likely to be as comfortable as it was in that Masters event, but Belinda Bencic can win and cover this handicap mark.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After their meeting at the Australian Open, Jannik Sinner will be looking to make a much faster start than he did in Melbourne when he found himself 0-2 down in sets to Marton Fucsovics.

They were two close sets and Sinner should have won at least one of those, but he managed to take full control of the match over the remaining three sets and only dropped three more games.

Marton Fucsovics has been on the path back from injury, but there is still work to do as he has dropped back to World Number 69 and the Hungarian was well beaten twice in Davis Cup action this past weekend. He did win a First Round match here and Jannik Sinner has not played since losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but it may still not be enough reason to believe Fucsovics can make this a closer match than it ended up being in Melbourne.

My biggest concern with backing Jannik Sinner to cover this kind of line is that he has not always been able to look after his serve as he would like- he has held 83% of hard court service games played in 2023 and Sinner was broken five times by Marton Fucsovics when they met last month. However, the Italian did show some positive improvement in the return part of his tennis over the first month of the season and this Fucsovics serve is still one that is vulnerable as he looks to get back up to full speed.

Over the last twelve months Marton Fucsovics has only held 76% of service games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.

That number has dipped to 62% in the first month of this season against such opponents and I think Sinner can do enough to cover here.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.50 Units (6 Units Staked, - 41.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (February 27th)

There are a couple of days left at the four tournaments being played this week and I have been a little lazy in not finding the time to write out my analysis for the Tennis Picks being made.

With two days left I will hope to have at least one fuller thread, but for the Saturday selections you can see my Picks below.

I will add any selections from the ATP Cordoba Semi Finals to this thread on Saturday morning, and that is only if any hit the criteria I expect from them.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (February 26th)

After a difficult few days, the Tennis Picks returned a winning day on Thursday.

There is still considerable work to do to turn this week all the way around, but there was better fortune behind the selections after very little in the first few days at the tournaments being played. Even then I could have some complaints about the way Shelby Rogers managed to blow her match against Cori Gauff, but these things happen and I do think the general selection method is still one that is identifying the right plays.

Adjustments have to be made to stay in front of the plays, but I have managed to do that in the last few seasons and even a difficult start to the 2021 season is not one that is knocking the belief in those plays at this moment.

There are plenty of matches to be played on Friday, but I have only a couple of selections from those scheduled. I may have additional Tennis Picks from the ATP Cordoba event, but this looks a tough day with some close matches throughout the day.

MY PICKS: Peter Gojowyzck @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Facundo Bagnis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-6, - 6.92 Units (18 Units Staked, - 38.44% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (February 24th)

With the Tour moving on to four different spots around the globe, it does feel like we are moving into a more natural progression having not heard of quarantine procedures at those events and with the Golden Swing and indoor hard court tournaments in Europe looking like they will go as planned.

We will also see the big events that are held in the Middle East get going with both the WTA and ATP Tours having stops in Qatar and Dubai over the next month. Those events have taken over the empty slot left over by the Indian Wells Masters tournament, but Miami is still going ahead with some fans in attendance and that should clear the way for the European clay court events in the lead up to the French Open which begins in late May.

The uncertainty does mean players will pick and choose their events in the lead to the Miami Masters, but that is always the case and some big names have been committed to tournaments over the next month. Both WTA events being played in Qatar and Dubai in back to back weeks look loaded with many of the top ten on the players list, while Roger Federer is also due to return to the courts in the coming weeks having committed to playing in the two ATP events scheduled to be played in Qatar and Dubai too.

There are some major Ranking points that are on offer before we go into the first Masters event of the 2021 season and ahead of the build up to the next Grand Slam of the season. It should motivate players who won't have to go through the same as they did in Australia and I think the vaccine rollout will certainly see the Tour restored to further normality the longer the year goes.

It is my hope that Wimbledon will have some fans able to attend too and I would certainly hope to be in a position where I could attend if tickets are re-released. That is something that will be clearer when the current United Kingdom lockdown plan develops over the coming weeks and months, but there is an all around more positive feel which has to be expanded to all aspects of our usual lives.

Naomi Osaka and Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open Women's and Men's titles respectively and I think it would be a bigger surprise if we don't see both in the Winner's enclosure again in a Grand Slam at some point in 2021.

The former looks to be the best hard court player in the world as far as the WTA goes, but Naomi Osaka will have something to prove when the Tour moves onto the clay and grass courts over the next several months, I would consider her to be amongst the favourites in terms of names, but that is the layers not taking chances and my personal Rankings will have Naomi Osaka some way down at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

She could change my mind with strong runs in the lead up events and benefiting from a kind draw, but I think Osaka will be a strong favourite at the US Open rather than at the next two Slams. That will open the door for other players to take home big titles and I do think the Women's draws have a sense of fascination about them being as open as they are.

It is not really the case in the Men's side of the draw despite the obvious improvements some of the younger players have made. At the moment you would have to say Novak Djokovic is favourite to win at Wimbledon and the US Open, while Rafael Nadal can win another French Open and will be hard to oppose, and that only raises thoughts about which of the 'Big Three' will go down as the Greatest of All Time.

At this stage I would be surprised if Roger Federer finishes with the most Grand Slams on the Men's side and I do think both Djokovic and Nadal won't just be targeting an ending to their career with the most Men's Singles Grand Slam titles, but will also believe they can overtake Margaret Court for the overall record.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are both on 20 Grand Slam titles and Novak Djokovic is trailing them by two at 18, but both the Spaniard and the World Number 1 will feel they have more left in the tank. Both are looking more than capable of being at the business end of every Slam they play in at the moment and even the improvement shown by the likes of Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev hasn't quite closed the gap.

In a best of five set match both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will feel very good about their chances of beating those youngsters that are leading the new challengers and it honestly would not be a surprise if the end of 2021 sees Nadal moving to 21 Grand Slam titles and Djokovic holding 20.

I can only imagine what may have been for the 'Big Three' if they had played in an era without the other two, but I also think Men's Tennis has become such an attraction because of the battles between the top names. They may easily go down as the top three Men's players of all time even if they were to end their careers today, but the worry for the next crop of stars is the motivation, the fire and, most importantly, the quality of the Big Three has shown little sign of slippage.

There is no doubting how much I have enjoyed the return of Tennis with three Grand Slams played over the last six months, but the Australian Open was a more joyous occasion if only because we finally had some fans back in attendance.

The less said about the spectator who decided she would swear at Rafael Nadal the better, but the crowd for the Dominic Thiem win over Nicolas Kyrgios really added to the match. My only regret is that the fans were not able to witness Stefanos Tsitsipas' comeback against Nadal in the Quarter Final with the last four days not as topsy-turvy as some of those last eight matches were.

Ashleigh Barty could have done with the support in her own Quarter Final defeat, but it is encouraging to see fans back and I am looking forward to a time when fuller crowds will return.

It wasn't quite the tournament I would have wanted for the Tennis Picks, but Novak Djokovic's title win at least meant the Outright Picks returned a profit. The daily Picks were less successful at the end, but the Australian Open and US Opens tend to be my weaker events.

That's no excuse and the focus over the next month is getting this season back into the black after a relatively slow start. Last season we didn't have the same kind of clay court season as a normal Tour season brings, but I am looking forward to having some momentum to go into that part of the year.

The Tuesday Tennis Picks could have had a better start with one close defeat, one winner and one comfortable loss. It is early in a new week though and I have time to get things turned around, although I am also looking at making some small adjustments to get back to some consistency.

MY PICKS: Soon Woo Kwon - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 7.80 Units (195.5 Units Staked, - 3.99% Yield)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (February 23rd)

The Australian Open is over and two dominating players have won the titles.

That is the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season in the books, but the Tours have already moved on with four tournaments taking place in different countries and continents around the world. A clay court Golden Swing has begun in South America and the early indoor tournaments that are usually played in Europe have also gotten going.

We do have two new events on the schedule this week compared to normal times, but there are plenty of decent names out there this week as players look to earn some decent Ranking points before the system resorts back to the one year Rankings rather than the two year spot we have now.

The Tennis Picks haven't had the best start to the 2021 season, but I will have a fuller thread for the Wednesday matches.

With First Round action to be played throughout the day from around the globe, I am going to place my picks in this thread.

MY PICKS: Yasutaka Uchiyama - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 7th)

I have wanted to have a slight mental reset in the last couple of days and that has been the main reason I have not wrote out full analysis from the matches being selected for the Tennis Picks.

I am likely going to keep that going for the remainder of this week as the three tournaments in Cordoba, Montpellier and Pune are concluded, but I expect to have a fuller Football post up with Fantasy Football thoughts from the GameWeek being split over two weekends.

Next week we get the first ATP 500 event of the season in Rotterdam and the WTA Tour will also be returning as they get ready for some big tournaments to be played through the remainder of the month. At that point I would expect to have some fuller threads for the Tennis Picks going through the rest of the month barring anything unforeseen cropping up.


A brutally slow start in the first couple of days after the Australian Open has made it a difficult week, but things have just begun to pick up in the last couple of days. I will have the updated totals from the week once Diego Sebastian Schwartzman's match against Jaume Munar has been completed, while any Picks that need to be added from Montpellier and Cordoba will be placed in this thread once the markets have been put together.


MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ricardas Berankis @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Marcora + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Soon Woo Kwon @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrej Martin + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 5th)

The first couple of days at the tournaments being played this week have been difficult with players missing Match Points and another making a slow start before rallying one game too late. Put it all together with a couple of poorer selections and it means the week has begun with a poor run of losses.

On Wednesday all of the tournaments being played will get into Second Round action, although there are also some First Round matches that need to be completed. I am sticking with a process that has been very successful over the last couple of years to produce some strong winning records, but I do hope Wednesday can begin the turnaround for this week's game.


MY PICKS: Taro Daniel - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Christian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-4, - 8 Units (8 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 3rd)

There will be a much fuller thread for the Tuesday Tennis matches as the ATP Tour moves past the Australian Open with three events being played this week.

Unsurprisingly most of the big names are going to be resting following their exploits in Melbourne, but for many others this represents a week in which they can try and put some strong Ranking points on the board and also build some confidence for bigger tournaments to come later this month and beyond in the 2020 season.

We don't have a long list of First Round matches on Monday, but I don't have the time to write out full analysis for these matches and will just place my Tennis Picks below.

MY PICKS: Salvatore Caruso - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 9th)

The Friday Quarter Final matches at the ATP Cordoba tournament have yet to be completed at the time of writing this post, but I have completed my look through the matches scheduled in the Fed Cup and the ATP Sofia and ATP Montpellier events that continue on Saturday.

There are quite a few matches taking place through the day on Saturday, but I am not going to have the time to write out any analysis for the Tennis Picks. That is mainly down to time restrictions, but you can see my Picks from the matches I have researched below.

I will add any selections from the ATP Cordoba Semi Final matches on Saturday once that line up is completed and at the same time I will update the weekly totals.


The ATP Cordoba tournament was cut short so I still have one more Pick running from there that is going to be concluded on Saturday. Weekly totals have been updated with that one selection still to go.


MY PICKS: Aliaksandra Sasnovich - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-7, + 3.90 Units (34 Units Staked, + 11.47% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 8th)

After a pretty good start to the week Thursday proved to be a more difficult time for the Tennis Picks.

On Friday all three ATP events move onto their Quarter Final matches scheduled.

The ATP Cordoba tournament is still concluding the Second Round matches while I am writing this post and that means I will add any Picks from that tournament to this thread on Friday.

I will also update the weekly totals at that time once all of the matches from the Thursday selections have been put into the books.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: On first glance I was a touch surprised that the layers had a similar number to the one I had set for this Quarter Final match in Montpellier. I was hoping that Filip Krajinovic's two wins here would have perhaps swayed them to give him a bit more a chance to upset Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player has the bigger name and so it is perhaps less than surprising than I first imagined.

Either way this is the number I was happy to back Berdych at as he continues his return to the Tour following an injury-hit 2018 which has seen him slip down the World Rankings. There is a chance his current Ranking could take another decline over the next couple of months if Berdych is not able to settle back onto the Tour as he likes, but so far 2019 has seen playing some of his better tennis and his run here will help.

Tomas Berdych is a comfortable player on the indoor hard courts, but he will be looking to get a little more out of his serve. So far in this tournament he has held at just over 81% of his service games and his overall service numbers are some way down on what he has been producing on the hard courts in 2019.

However Berdych has been backed up by some strong returning and he is going to need that aspect of his game working to the best possible level. In this Quarter Final Berdych is facing an opponent who has yet to have his serve broken, but Filip Krajinovic has generally not been able to find the level he produced against David Goffin on a consistent basis.

In the last couple of years Krajinovic has only held less than 80% of his service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked in the top 100 of the World Rankings. That part of his game should be challenged by Berdych in his form in this tournament as well as how he has been able to return on the hard courts in the last couple of years. He has found a way to break at around the 28% mark and I do think Berdych will be able to find the majority of break points in this one.

Filip Krajinovic is clearly enjoying the tournament here, but I think Berdych will be able to find a break more than him in each of the first two sets played and he can cover the spread in this one.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The last Quarter Final to be played in Montpellier on Friday is the all-French battle between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jeremy Chardy. The fans will be looking forward to this match as Tsonga is the latest veteran making his way back from an injury that ended his 2018 season much earlier than he wanted.

He is a very popular figure around the world and Tsonga particularly enjoys playing on the indoor hard courts in France. Some of his best results have been in these conditions and Tsonga has looked very good coming through the draw after dropping the first set he played in the First Round.

Jeremy Chardy will have his support being a home player too and he can be a very dangerous customer when at his very best. It is hard to get a read of his form though as Chardy has been able to beat two players Ranked outside the top 100 to reach this Quarter Final and this is the first significant test he will have faced in this tournament.

Chardy has opened 2019 with some strong serving numbers on the hard courts, but a weakness of his game has long been the returning side of things. That hasn't been a problem for Chardy against overmatched opponents in this tournament, but there has been a decline of his returning numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the last few years.

No one will ever confuse Tsonga with being a top returner on the Tour, but he can put opponents under immense pressure when he is serving at the top of his game. That is what he will be looking to do and then hoping it sees Chardy break down and in their head to head matches in the past that has been the case.

It has been very difficult for Chardy to get anything out of the Tsonga serve in their previous matches. In fact Chardy has only broken the Tsonga serve once in four previous matches against him, but he has produced at least one service game which has led to a break for Tsonga against him in three out of four of those matches.

The serving statistics and the superior Tsonga numbers should set him up for a win in this one too and I will back him to cover the spread with a single break of serve arguably enough to do that.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.88 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 7th)

Wednesday proved to be another good start to the week for the Tennis Picks with the six selections ending up with a 4-2 record.

It could have been better, but I was surprised at how poorly David Goffin played in his loss, while Karen Khachanov started off very well and kind of fell apart to lose in three sets.

Fortunately it was a good day for the most part and I am looking to produce a fourth winning week on the Tour after having backed up the strong selections at the Australian Open to keep the 2019 season moving in a positive direction.

The remaining Second Round matches at the three ATP events are being played on Thursday so it is another busy day with plenty of action throughout from Montpellier and Sofia leading into the tournament being played in Cordoba to begin the South American Golden Swing.

I have yet to have a selection from the Cordoba event on the clay, but that will change on Thursday with the majority of the selections being made from that tournament. It is the first clay court action of the season for many of the players in Argentina, but a number of specialists are in the draw too before some of the much bigger names on the Tour join the Golden Swing through the remainder of the month.

I have looked at a couple of matches in depth below and then I have added the remaining selections to the 'MY PICKS' section below. The weekly totals are updated below that.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Both Pablo Cuevas and Malek Jaziri won their first match at the ATP Cordoba event and move through to this Second Round meeting.

Over the years playing on the clay courts has been far from easy for Jaziri, but the veteran had a good looking win in the First Round over Carlos Berlocq and that should give him some confidence. He did not serve as well as he would have liked in that win, and that is going to be a problem for Jaziri in this match as it has been when playing on the main ATP Tour on this surface throughout his career.

Malek Jaziri did have a decent enough season on the clay courts in 2018 so there may be a feeling that he has gotten comfortable on the surface. However this is a step up in level for the Tunisian who has reached a career best World Ranking already in 2019 and could improve on that with a strong run in this tournament.

His return of serve is going to be important on the clay courts, but Jaziri will also have to look after this own serve better than he did in the First Round and better than his levels produced in the last few years. That is the case when facing someone like Pablo Cuevas who is very strong on the clay courts and has a serve that can set him up to win plenty of matches.

Pablo Cuevas holds serve considerably better than Jaziri on the clay courts and he was a dominant First Round winner where Jaziri did have his difficulties.

While the return game is perhaps not quite as good as it could be, Cuevas is someone who has a consistent ability to break serve on the clay courts. In each of the last four years Cuevas has won between 37.5% and 38.5% of the return points against the serve and that has led to a pretty consistent break percentage on the clay courts.

That is the kind of level that could give him every chance to not only win this match with Jaziri, but also find the breaks of serve to cover a big number. Pablo Cuevas has beaten Malek Jaziri on a hard court in 2016, but the clay is his favoured domain and I do think his superior serve numbers will see him give up fewer break points and ultimately do enough to move through to the Quarter Final with a relatively straight-forward win.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There are some big Ranking points for Fabio Fognini to defend on the clay courts over the next month, but the Italian is still very close to achieving his best World Ranking in his career. He remains inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but Fognini could see a considerable drop if he is not able to produce his best tennis during the Golden Swing.

Over the last few years the Fognini numbers on the clay courts have been far from elite level, but he has managed to win plenty of matches on the surface. One of the main problems for Fognini is his serve is one that can be attacked, especially if he is failing to get enough first serves in play, while Fognini is never too far away from mentally checking out of sets.

That can see him drop sets by wide margins as he perhaps focuses on the next set rather than fighting to get back into one. It is a criticism of Fognini, but his tennis clearly works for him as he gets set for his first clay court match of the 2019 season.

He may not have been able to ask for a much better opponent as Fognini takes on Aljaz Bedene who was a strong winner in the First Round. A couple of years ago Bedene was in fantastic form on the clay courts and his numbers were very impressive, but last year they were back at a level that has been more in keeping with the rest of his career.

It was the Bedene serve which really sparked his strong 2017 showing on the clay courts as he held at 83% with 66% of points won behind serve. In 2018 those numbers dipped back to 73% and 61% respectively and Bedene is going to have some trouble picking up his play in this match.

Fabio Fognini has won all seven previous matches played against Bedene and he has won six of those on the clay courts. The numbers in those previous matches on the clay have seen Fognini hold serve at a much higher percentage than his usual level on this surface, while Bedene has only managed to hold 69% of service games played.

The last of those matches came last year in Rio de Janeiro and Fognini would have covered this number in four of six matches against Bedene on the clay courts including the last three in a row. He clearly enjoys this match up and I think Fognini can cover again as long as he doesn't take too long getting readjusted to tennis back on the clay courts.

The Italian's numbers are slightly superior to Bedene's overall, but you can see he has a clear edge when they have faced one another. I expect that to be the case again and I will look for Fabio Fognini to win by a wide enough margin to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.08 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 6th)

There were very few Tennis matches that fit my criteria last week although I will admit a couple did come close before I ultimately decided to pass on those.

While having a limited number of Picks, it was another good week as the season totals were added to.

I would imagine there are going to be more matches fitting into my reckoning this week and in fact this Wednesday will have more selections than the entirety of last week. The three ATP tournaments are the main focus, but Fed Cup matches are being played all week too and could be part of the selection plan if matches are put together and markets are formulated.


I won't have my full analysis of the matches to be played in the First and Second Rounds at the tournaments that are being played on Wednesday, but you can see those selections below.


MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 31.64 Units (219 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 10th)

I am very much in the midst of 'man flu' which has left me achy and irritable, but I will survive I'm sure.

It does mean I am lacking a bit of energy to get my thoughts down for the Semi Final matches from the three ATP events that are coming to a conclusion this weekend before the first ATP 500 event in Rotterdam begins on Monday.

Friday started poorly, but it rounded out much better and hopefully Saturday can push on with these selections.

MY PICKS: David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.92 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.2% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 9th)

There have been three tournaments being played in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia on the ATP World Tour this week, but it has been difficult finding many plays from the matches that have been set.

On Friday the Quarter Final matches at the three events are scheduled to take place and I will add the Tennis Picks from those matches in this thread.

Unfortunately I have had a few things to do on Thursday which means I have not been able to produce the usual write-ups for this thread. Suffice to say that I have put in the necessary research to believe in the picks to be placed in this thread with any coming from the ATP Quito event to be added on Friday before lunchtime in London.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 11th)

It has been a terrific week for the tennis picks, but it could have been even better if Richard Gasquet had completed his win over Kenny De Schepper when he had a chance to serve for the match at the end of the second set.

Even with that defeat, the majority of the picks did enough to come into the winner's enclosure on Friday and that has really put some solid numbers on the board this week. It makes up for a really poor week after the Australian Open and hopefully that will give me some momentum to take into the rest of the month with plenty of tennis and big tournaments to be played.

The remainder of February sees the first ATP 500 events of the season taking place as well as the Golden Swing to South America. The WTA Tour also has some of their own Premier Events before March is occupied by the two big Masters events in North America and it does look like a fun few weeks ahead with some of the biggest names on the Tour ready to return to the court.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: I have to consider it a mental lapse in concentration that Richard Gasquet was unable to finish his Quarter Final in straight sets. That meant he had to spend more time on court than necessary and found himself in a precarious position at times, but the defending Champion has moved through to the Semi Final in Montpellier.

He will be playing compatriot Benoit Paire in the Semi Final and Paire should be well rested having played just a handful of points before being the beneficiary of Dustin Brown's back injury. It was a shame for the fans because that would have been a fun match to watch, but it does mean the home fans know there will be at least one Frenchman in the Final on Sunday.

Picking the winner isn't straight forward because Paire has opened 2017 in good shape and I am still not convinced Gasquet is at 100%. However I think Gasquet is the more consistent player and should have the better game plan going onto the court than Paire who can go wandering mentally which leads to some strange shot selection.

I am anticipating Paire will use plenty of slices, drop shots and serve-volley plays to move Gasquet out of his rhythm, but the latter has shown he can handle that with three wins out of three against Paire on the Tour. I imagine both are very familiar with what the other wants to do on the court and I am looking for Gasquet to execute better over the two hours they are likely to spend out on court.

This has been a good run in the draw for Paire who is a previous Finalist in Montpellier, but this is a tournament that Gasquet has thrived in. I think he can improve the head to head on the Tour and I am looking for Gasquet to be a little stronger mentally to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win over his compatriot and move into another Final at this event.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I have little doubt that Alexander Zverev is a potential Grand Slam winner and a player that will spend a lot of his time in the top ten of the World Rankings in his career. He continues to display the talent that is going to help him get to the top of the men's game, but I still think Zverev needs to improve the fitness and I do wonder if the last week has sapped some energy from his reserves.

He represented Germany in three Davis Cup Rubbers last weekend and the young man has had to battle through two Rounds to get into the Semi Final in Montpellier. In both matches this week Zverev has needed three sets to come through and he is going to have to raise his level by a couple of gears if he is going to have enough to beat home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Tsonga has had two very impressive wins already this week having missed the France Davis Cup tie which has given him more time to get ready for this event. The Tsonga serve has been a monster weapon so far for the Frenchman and neither Pierre-Hugues Herbert nor Daniil Medvedev have come very close to breaking the Tsonga serve.

Serving big will put pressure on Zverev even if this opponent is a better returner than the two players Tsonga has played so far this week. While I expect Zverev to get a few more balls back and find a way to get into the weaker Tsonga backhand, when Tsonga is serving this big he is going to be able to play first strike tennis more often than not. From there he will look to build pressure to get into the Zverev service games and I do think Tsonga is going to win this match.

A tie-breaker is likely to be in play from where Tsonga can break the Zverev belief and I will look for the higher Ranked player to come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.


Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: This has been a memorable week for Nikoloz Basilashvili already having beaten Dominic Thiem and reached the Semi Final of the ATP Sofia event. Of course he will want more, but I do wonder if there is a lot of energy left in the tank and now Basilashvili has to take on home favourite Grigor Dimitrov.

Basilashvili had to come from being given a bagel in the first set of his Quarter Final against Martin Klizan before moving through in three sets. He will have to be playing a lot better all around if he is going to challenge Dimitrov, although this week has looked like an exception rather than the usual standards Basilashvili is able to produce on the indoor hard courts.

Beating the likes of Thiem and Tomas Berdych on the indoor hard courts shows Basilashvili has something about his game, but there are plenty of disappointing losses in that time too. Now he is facing Dimitrov who is off an impressive looking win over Victor Troicki and who has opened 2017 with a new found belief about his game.

That was shown at the Australian Open where Dimitrov reached the Semi Final and he also has a title won in the early weeks of the new season. Winning another title here might suggest Dimitrov is going to find the consistency to challenge the very best players on the Tour and he can be a very good player when playing with the confidence he has at the moment.

2016 wasn't a great season for Dimitrov in terms of results on the indoor hard courts, but that had much to do with the difficult early draws he was given. He has played at a higher level than Basilashvili who would not have covered this number in his last six losses on the indoor hard courts in 2016. I will look for Dimitrov to earn a break more in each set to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Barbora Strycova: An injury has blighted the start to the 2017 season for Garbine Muguruza, but she should be well rested and ready to go in the Fed Cup this weekend. Her performances have helped Spain head back into the World Group and Muguruza is unbeaten in Fed Cup action for her nation having won all six previous Rubbers and she has a 4-0 record on the indoor hard courts.

None of that will intimidate Barbora Strycova who helped the Czech Republic win the Fed Cup again at the end of last season and she did beat Muguruza when they last played at the Australian Open in 2016. Strycova does have the unenvious task of filling the Petra Kvitova boots for her nation, but she has shown she is capable of matching the best players on the Tour when she brings her best to the court.

It will be interesting to see how quick the conditions are on this indoor court- while it would help Karolina Pliskova, Garbine Muguruza's big game would also be aided and put Strycova very much on the defensive for much of this match. The Muguruza serve has not been working as well as it can and she remains a little up and down with the groundstrokes, but being able to get first strike tennis in this match will give her a big edge.

I like the way Strycova competes, but she is not going to get as many cheap points from the serve as Muguruza can and I think that makes a difference in this opening Rubber. It won't be a one-sided match because that is not what a battle hardened player Strycova will allow to happen, but I do think Muguruza has a break more in each set to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win for Spain.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Two clay court specialists meet in Quito's first Semi Final, but both Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Paolo Lorenzi may have needed some time to get used to the conditions here. The altitude in Quito makes this clay court faster than most others and that can take some getting used to, although both players have won a couple of matches now and should be accustomed to what they are going to see on the court.

The extra matches that Paolo Lorenzi had to play at the Davis Cup last weekend could be a factor in this one, but I am not going to put too much stock into that as a decider.

Instead I have to say that Ramos-Vinolas has played with plenty of belief over the last six months and that showed up in his win in the Quarter Final. Pressure points have not bothered him as much as they used to and he has been good at the key moments. However he has to respect Lorenzi who is arguably playing his best tennis of his career over the last twelve months which has helped him become the Italian Number 1 and Lorenzi has two very good looking wins already here.

Both came against players who are perhaps not as comfortable on the clay courts as Ramos-Vinolas and I think the added quality the Spaniard brings will help him reach the Final here. The last two matches have been won by Ramos-Vinolas between these players and I like him to battle through with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.


Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: If Quito was the only tournament ever played on the Tour, Victor Estrella Burgos might be the World Number 1 player. That is obviously a tongue in cheek suggestion as the top players on Tour would pitch up here, but is making a point that the two time defending Champion remains unbeaten in Quito despite showing little to go deep in other tournaments through the season.

He isn't outside the top 100 in the World Ranking for any other reason.

However Estrella Burgos continues to find his best form here and is looking to beat Thomaz Bellucci for a third time in a row in Quito. Those wins have come in the Semi Final in 2015 and Final of 2016 so it isn't like Estrella Burgos has caught the Brazilian cold, and it makes the games appealing for him this season despite the Dominican being a year older.

Bellucci looked very good in his Quarter Final win, but he battled past Janko Tipsarevic in the Second Round and hasn't looked that comfortable on the court in 2017. He has plenty of power and a solid lefty serve which makes him dangerous, but Estrella Burgos has found a way to negate his strengths and turn matches in his favour.

It has all the hallmarks of another tight match between them and I can imagine plenty will be backing Estrella Burgos as the big underdog to keep the winning run going. I am not so sure that Bellucci doesn't find a way to win this match over three sets this time around, but I think the games being given to the underdog could be useful and I will take those and look for a close and competitive match even if Estrella Burgos is finally defeated in Quito.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-4, + 16.40 Units (36 Units Staked, + 45.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 10th)

The Quarter Final matches in the three ATP tournaments are set to be played on Friday while the Fed Cup matches are to be played from Saturday.

On Thursday we did hear that both Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of the big event in Rotterdam next week. It has weakened the first ATP 500 event of the season, but it still looks a very strong field and should still be a very good event for the fans attending.

Both Wawrinka and Nadal have been told to rest themselves for the bigger events that are to come in the next few weeks, but I do hope it is just a precautionary action rather than one with deeper consequences for the 2017 season.


The tennis picks went 2-2 on Thursday to keep the week in a positive position, although I would have much preferred to keep the winning momentum behind them. Hopefully Friday proves to be a better day with picks from the Quarter Final matches in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia.

Like I have all week, I will add any picks from Quito on Friday if any appeal.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Kenny De Schepper: He took his time to get the better of Malek Jaziri in the Second Round, but Richard Gasquet may be all the better for having had some difficulties in that match. The defending Champion got stronger as the match progressed after losing focus in the middle of the first set and he was a fairly comfortable winner on the day.

The rhythm of this Quarter Final is going to be different as he faces the big serving lefty Kenny De Schepper who has made a surprise run through the draw. De Schepper won both Qualifiers and he has come through two Rounds in the main draw as the underdog which should give him confidence, but this is a big step up for the big man when he is facing a compatriot who has a much higher profile.

Both previous matches have been won fairly easily by Gasquet but a lot will always depend on how he handles the big serve that De Schepper has. From what I have seen over the years, De Schepper is certainly a player that can have trouble holding himself in rallies and Gasquet getting enough balls back in play is going to give him a significant advantage in the match.

He should be much superior when it comes to the rallies that get past the fourth and fifth shot and I think Gasquet will serve well enough to prevent De Schepper getting a look in as long as Gasquet doesn't make too many errors. There will be some games that go by in a flash, but I do think Gasquet will have chances to create break points and I expect he is going to be too good for De Schepper in this one.

At the end of the match, I am expecting Gasquet to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: When I was considering the prospective spreads for the matches to be played on Friday, I thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's impressive Second Round win would have meant he was being asked to cover the same number of games as he was in that match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev is not considerably better than Herbert as a Singles player, but Tsonga's performance would have him as the big favourite was more the line I was thinking.

Medvedev is one of the young guns on the Tour who is trying to take the next step in his development and he had a very good win over Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round. That should ease concerns about Medvedev's injury at the Davis Cup which forced him to pull out of his match against Novak Djokovic in the fourth set, but facing Tsonga is now a considerable step up to facing Verdasco.

Unlike the Spaniard, Tsonga is not going to lose as many points behind the first serve and that should put some pressure on the youngster. Medvedev is a tall man whose serve should enjoy the conditions indoors on a hard court and that has shown up with considerable success on the surface at the Challenger level.

This is a big step up for him though and I think Tsonga's own serve will build the pressure and see Medvedev break down in a couple of games that allows the home player to step up and pull away. Break points could be at a premium on Friday, but I like Tsonga to take the chances that do come his way and win this match 6-4, 6-4.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: On the face of things you would think that Gilles Muller is going to be much happier on the indoor hard courts than a player like Roberto Bautista Agut. However it is the latter who has had the better results over the last couple of years on the indoor hard courts and it is Bautista Agut who is the defending Champion in Sofia.

These players met in a tight match last season here in the Semi Final and Bautista Agut was able to frank than win when beating Muller in Rio at the Olympic Games a few months later.

The form guide shows that both players have made similar starts to the 2017 season with both Muller and Bautista Agut winning a title already. While the Muller serve is the big weapon, Bautista Agut has shown he has been able to blunt it for just long enough to take the lead in the matches and manage to stay in front of this opponent on the court.

I expect the return game and movement of the Spaniard to be a key to this match too although Muller can take a match out of an opponent's hands if he is serving as well as he can. The Bautista Agut serve can be a weakness against the very best players on the Tour, but I think he can get Muller on the move and defend the aggressive actions Muller takes on the court which can help the Spaniard come through in this one in a very similar manner as the last two times these players have met.

Both of those matches have ended with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline to Bautista Agut and I will back him to find a way to cover this number too.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: Two players who will likely be friends off the court having spent a lot of time together with the Belgium Davis Cup team will be meeting in the Quarter Final in Sofia. You have to give Steve Darcis some credit for the way he has been playing over the last week which included two big wins in the Davis Cup tie in Germany before two more here in Sofia.

The wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis the confidence to take on David Goffin, but I do think the consistency of the latter makes him the most dangerous player Darcis has played over the last week.

Goffin did have his difficult moments in the Second Round win over Radu Albot, but I think that has more to do with a loss of focus than anything else. You would imagine that Goffin is well aware of how good Darcis can be and that should mean we see a more focused effort throughout this match while this isn't the first time they have played one another which means any distraction from the friendship is going to be able to be dealt with.

There should be plenty of long rallies in this one with neither player possessing a dominating serve, although I do think Goffin has an edge in that department. I also think Goffin is the more effective player from the baseline and I would expect him to have a little too much for Darcis the longer this match goes, although I won't be surprised if there are breaks of serve for both players.

However I do think Goffin will eventually come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win and move through to the Semi Final.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: It has already been a very good tournament for Roberto Carballes Baena who has come through the Qualifiers and won two matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Final. Both wins in the main draw have come in very comfortable fashion which will have given Carballes Baena the confidence to take into this match, although it is always a different feel when taking on a compatriot who has the edge in terms of experience and World Ranking.

That is what is in front of Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first of the Quarter Final matches in Quito. While Carballes Baena has had to win four matches to get to this Round, Ramos-Vinolas was a solid winner over Alejandro Falla in the Second Round to do the same.

The clay courts are very much the favoured surface for both players, but the altitude in Quito does make this a different kind of tournament. It gives both players a little more opportunity to hit through the court but I do think Ramos-Vinolas will have the edge considering the higher level he generally plays at. Ramos-Vinolas has also won three of four previous matches against Carballes Baena including a fairly comfortable victory at the clay event in Bastad in 2016.

The younger Spaniard is playing well enough to keep Ramos-Vinolas on his toes, but I do think the experience and better play will be with the higher Ranked player. That should lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win over a couple of hours on the court.


Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: In most cases you would expect Paolo Lorenzi to have a significant edge on the clay courts against Rajeev Ram, but I do think the altitude of Quito does give the American a chance to play his own game effectively. On most clay courts it is hard to win points solely with aggression without the patience to build rallies, but Ram might have a chance to hit through Lorenzi in this one.

Even with that in mind, Lorenzi should be a little too good for Ram whose record on the clay courts is nothing to really write home about. Ram played here last year and found clay court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas a little too good over three sets and I anticipate something similar could happen here.

Tiredness would then become a factor as Lorenzi has shown he is capable of spending lots of time out on the court on this surface despite the Italian being 34 years old. His serve can be a little erratic which gives Ram a chance to get on the offensive, but I still think Lorenzi can outlast Ram the longer the rallies go and that should eventually wear down his opponent.

I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but Lorenzi to be a little too good at the back end of each set to come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.


Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 games v Federico Gaio: A long Second Round win over Ivo Karlovic has kept Victor Estrella Burgos' unbeaten run in Quito going for one more match. The question is whether that has taken something out of the Estrella Burgos tank even if the match is more of a mental battle against Karlovic than a physical one.

It is going to be a much different kind of match in the Quarter Final when Estrella Burgos faces Italian Qualifier Federico Gaio. There should be a lot more rallies being contested in this match and the rhythm will be much different than when the defending Champion faced Karlovic whose booming serve is a huge weapon.

Both Estrella Burgos and Gaio have had some long matches already this week and at some point that is going to catch up with them. As solid as Gaio's wins have been this week, this is another step up in competition when you think he is facing someone who has been very happy in the conditions and I think that is going to give Estrella Burgos a significant edge in the match.

Gaio has to be respected considering the successes he has had at the Challenger level on the clay courts and he is facing someone that he would perhaps be expected to beat in most events outside of this one in Quito. The two do usually play in a similar level which is shown up by their World Rankings being very close, but Estrella Burgos could be the fresher player having played two matches and six sets fewer than Gaio over the course of the week.

This could help Estrella Burgos come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to continue the winning run in Quito.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 36.55% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 9th)

After deciding to sit out on Monday, it looks like a decision that has paid off for the picks so far this week which have produced plenty of winners.

While it is a good start, we still have four more days to go this week and I am looking to make sure it is a much better one than last week by ensuring we give nothing back in the coming days.

Any picks from the tournament in Quito will be added on Thursday once the schedule of play and full markets have been released.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is a lot of pressure on Alexander Zverev to become the next big star coming out of Germany and I think that may have hindered him in the Davis Cup tie at home last weekend. His surprise defeat in Rubber 4 meant Belgium were able to upset Germany, while Zverev still has some of the inconsistencies which young players do tend to display.

He reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last season and Zverev has shown he can be very comfortable on the indoor hard courts and I do believe he can win this match. His opponent Aljaz Bedene has fallen outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he did produce a solid come from behind win over Borna Coric in the First Round although I do believe that says a lot more about where Coric is with his game than where Bedene is.

Bedene has just struggled to find a place on the main Tour with too many up and down results preventing him from being comfortable at this level. The British player has a decent serve and can play very well when he is allowed to, but I am not sure Zverev is going to give him a chance to completely settle.

This is a big number when you think of the inconsistent performances Zverev can produce within a match, but I think the German holds the edge when it comes to the power and the first serve. As long as he doesn't lose focus mentally, Zverev should find a way to get involved in the Bedene service games and I think he will wear down his opponent for a 6-4, 6-3 win to move into the Quarter Final.


Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: The veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu had to ride out some difficult moments in his win in the First Round and will be looking to back that up on Thursday. He reached the Final in Montpellier last season, but that was an exception to the usual trend for Mathieu here as he had previously been 3-4 in matches at this indoor hard court event.

While the win over Vincent Millot was a good one, Mathieu has to know that his level of performance has to go up at least one, maybe two gears from where he was on Wednesday. The first serve was not going in as much as he would like and Mathieu is in for a big test against compatriot Jeremy Chardy who is younger and well rested having won his First Round match a couple of days ago.

It does have to be said that Chardy has been anything but flying at the beginning of the 2017 season, but his battling win over Marcel Granollers has to give him confidence. I also can't ignore the fact that Chardy does not have the best record on the indoor hard courts, but I do think he has the shot making to give Mathieu problems if he is looking a little fatigued as he did at times on Wednesday.

Chardy has to make more use out of his own serve and can be encouraged by having won four of the last five matches against Mathieu. He should be too good for the veteran, but might have to save a few break points on the way to a 7-6, 6-4 win.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: The defending Champion Richard Gasquet makes his first appearance in Montpellier this season and has to feel he has a significant physical edge over Malek Jaziri who had to battle through a tough three set First Round match on Wednesday.

Jaziri came very close to losing his First Round match before taking the final two sets 7-5, 7-6 to come from behind and beat Tristan Lamasine. There is no doubt he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to beat another Frenchman here and one who is accustomed to producing solid results on the indoor hard courts.

The question about Gasquet is how he is feeling physically as he has only decided to play at the Australian Open in 2017. He didn't play badly at Melbourne Park, but the lack of matches can be a problem for players especially as he will be playing someone who has won a match here and also played well at the Australian Open.

However I do wonder if the First Round match yesterday has taken something out of the Jaziri tank ahead of this one. This is not a player who has had the greatest record on the indoor hard courts but Gasquet will still need to be focused and make sure he doesn't offer Jaziri too many easy ways into games and the match. I do think Gasquet will have the majority of break points as Jaziri has to work hard to try and win some of the points off the second serve and I will look for the Frenchman to come through 6-4, 6-3.


Andreas Seppi v Steve Darcis: Coming back from Argentina and Davis Cup action on a different surface might have put Andreas Seppi in a difficult position going into the Sofia main draw. However he proved his battling qualities with a three set win on Wednesday and now takes on Steve Darcis who was beaten by the Italian in four sets at the Australian Open last month.

On that occasion Seppi was a stronger favourite than he is in this one, but I think the factors of the journey from Argentina and Darcis having played a couple of days ago has influenced the prices.

Darcis had been impressive in Davis Cup action himself this week as he led a Belgium team to success in Germany despite not having David Goffin to call upon. Wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis confidence that he can reverse a tight defeat to Seppi at Melbourne Park and this one could come down to which of these players is able to get more out of the first serve.

I am anticipating a tight match here, but I think Seppi is able to frank his form from last month and come through in three sets. He does have the slightly stronger first serve which can set up a few more easier rallies, while I also believe Darcis has still enjoyed the majority of his success at the lower level than the one Seppi tends to play on. It should go three sets though and there might be a couple of key moments here and there that decides the outcome of the match, but I am looking for Seppi to knuckle down and win the big points to move through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 62.57% Yield)