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Showing posts with label February 6th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February 6th. Show all posts

Wednesday, 5 February 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 6th February)

The tournaments that are played in the Middle East tend to be concluded on Saturday and so we are already at the Quarter Final stage in Abu Dhabi, while the Second Round is completed in Rotterdam on Thursday.

For the second day in a row, there is one selection from each event in what has been a considered return to the Tennis Picks following the solid returns from the Australian Open.

Bigger events are coming up through the remainder of the month, which may offer up more selections, but we will see how that pans out when the tournaments come around and the only focus for now is on the Picks that are being made.


Belinda Bencic - 2.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The return to the Tour after becoming a mother could not have gone much better for Belinda Bencic and she taking full advantage of playing under a Protected Ranking or a Wild Card.

Last month she was able to surprisingly reach the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before losing to a top player in Coco Gauff and that effectively halved her World Ranking.

This week she entered the tournament in Abu Dhabi as the World Number 157, but two wins over top 52 Ranked opponents has helped Belinda Bencic reach the Quarter Final and her return continues to pick up serious momentum.

Next up is Marketa Vondrousova, who has also won two matches here and who also would have entered the Abu Dhabi tournament with something to prove.

Injury meant the World Number 37 was not able to play at the Australian Open, but Marketa Vondrousova has won all four sets played in this tournament and wins over Emma Raducanu and Yulia Putintseva have to be respected. Winning in the manner she has only makes Vondrousova more dangerous and any player that has a Grand Slam in the trophy cabinet can put together the tennis to win events like this.

The run has been surprising considering an injury suffered last month in Adelaide was enough to keep Marketa Vondrousova from attempting to play in the opening Grand Slam of 2025. The fact is that she had also missed all events in 2024 following an early exit as the defending Champion at Wimbledon, and both players will have something to prove.

Matches between these players have been competitive in the past, although this is the first time Belinda Bencic and Marketa Vondrousova are facing off since 2021 when they met twice in a short space of time at the Tokyo Olympics and Cincinnati Masters.

Both of those matches were won by Belinda Bencic and she does look the more likely winner of this Quarter Final on the form displayed over the last few weeks.

The first serve is going to be important for both players, but Bencic has looked a little more capable of protecting the second serve and that could prove to be the difference in a very close match. One concern for both is the amount of tennis being played in a short space of time having spent so much time away from the Tour, but Belinda Bencic has been playing with the confidence of a solid Australian Open behind her and she can edge out Marketa Vondrousova into the Abu Dhabi Semi Final ahead of big events in Doha and Dubai.


Stefanos Tsitsipas v Tallon Griekspoor: After watching Paula Badosa make such a big impact at the Australian Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to take some inspiration into turning his own form around.

The First Round loss in Melbourne would have really stung and Stefanos Tsitsipas has fallen out of the top ten in the World Rankings, while he also had a difficult year on the hard courts in 2024.

Beating the World Number 138 in the First Round in Rotterdam might not be a match that will live long in the memory, but it could be key for Stefanos Tsitsipas to just have something to build upon in a busy six weeks before the Tour moves onto the clay court part of the season.

This Second Round match is going to be much tougher when going up against Tallon Griekspoor, who is going to be backed by the home fans and who has enjoyed his recent visits to Rotterdam. Only Jannik Sinner has found a way to stop the Griekspoor runs in the last couple of seasons, but the World Number 1 is not involved this week and the win over Matteo Berrettini showed how effective the World Number 43 can be on an indoor hard court.

His serve can be a huge weapon on the indoor courts and that was the key for Tallon Griekspoor to just get the better of Matteo Berrettini, although the Italian will be frustrated by his defeat.

One big issue that Tallon Griekspoor has is getting enough out of the return, but he will be confident in his ability to win matches when getting into tie-breakers and hoping the scoreboard pressure from his own serving can crack an opponent.

This has to be a concern for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has not been serving as well as he can, but who did put a strong display on the board in his First Round win.

He will have the mental edge having crushed Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets as the Australian Open two years ago and it was a match where Stefanos Tsitsipas produced the much stronger serving. That will be the challenge for him again and this is expected to be competitive in front of Tallon Griespoor's fans, but Stefanos Tsitsipas can find a way to edge past the home hope.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.17 Units (2 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

Tuesday, 6 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 6th February)

It has been a really poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks and that means there is a lot of work to do in order to turn things around.

However, it is a marathon not a sprint and it would be a big mistake to chase from the off.

Instead the plan is to rebuild slowly and that means putting strong weeks together as the Tours move into big tournaments in the Middle East before the two hard court Masters events played in North America.

That also means there will not be selections every day as I tighten the approach a little bit after a frustrating time at the Australian Open.


The first Grand Slam of 2024 was a good one as far as entertainment goes and the two Champions, Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka, will both feel they can add to the big titles won.

They will know there are a number of contenders that will be keen to bounce back and it looks like a good season is in store for all of the fans around the world.

It is the hard court events that continue to be the main focus for the players, but the Golden Swing in South America is another strong part of the Tour schedule.

We have some big Ranking points on offer over the next month before both the ATP and WTA Tours combine to play at Indian Wells and Miami and the focus for these pages is getting the season moving in a positive direction.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 games v Gregoire Barrere: An early exit in Montpellier has continued the poor start to the season made by Gregoire Barrere.

His two wins this season have been against the then World Number 256 and 214 and the confidence has to be a little dented after the defeats around those victories.

The home crowd will be behind him and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is returning to the Tour for the first time since his surprising defeat in the Second Round at the Australian Open. The Spaniard is going to have to deal with the emotion of facing a home player, while the serve is not as strong as it should be on the faster surfaces.

However, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did earn a good looking win over Hubert Hurkacz in the build up to the Australian Open and that is the best win either of these players have produced.

Gregoire Barrere has had some successes on the hard courts, while he did produce some solid indoor hard court tennis at this time of the season twelve months ago. He did not put together that kind of level in Montpellier last week, but in 2023 Gregoire Barrere had played well there, in Rotterdam and here in Marseille.

On his best day, Barrere has a decent enough serve, but his return game is not as effective as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's. This could be the difference in this First Round match and the higher Ranked player can find a way to move past the home player.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Hugo Gaston: Injury and a loss of form has contributed to Denis Shapovalov slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but he can frank his win over Hugo Gaston from last week by beating the same opponent again.

It has been a difficult opening month on the ATP Tour for Denis Shapovalov who has lost three of the four matches played.

The one exception was his win over Hugo Gaston when the lefty dropped just four games as he dominated the Frenchman in all aspects of the match.

Two wins in the Qualifying Rounds will have given Hugo Gaston a boost in confidence, although he will have noted the gap in level that will need to be bridged if he is going to turn the result around.

Hugo Gaston does not have the most productive serve and that does tend to put a lot of pressure on his return game. Over the last twelve months, Gaston has only held 73% of his service games played on the hard courts, and he was broken four times by Denis Shapovalov last week.

While Hugo Gaston has been able to return well enough to make up for the inefficient serve, it was very difficult for him to push Shapovalov last week. Having that experience will certainly help Gaston to prepare for this First Round match, but Denis Shapovalov showed enough in Montpellier to believe he may be approaching some of his best form and he can get the better of this opponent again.


Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 games v Juan Pablo Varillas: The South American Golden Swing is seen as a very good chance for the clay court specialists to really get their 2024 season underway after the hard court tennis played over the last month.

Both Yannick Hanfmann and Juan Pablo Varillas are very comfortable on the surface and both will arrive in Cordoba hoping for a better run than 2023.

Early exits were the order of the day for Hanfmann and Varillas last year and this is the first clay court match of the season for either.

There is very little doubting the qualities of both of these players when it comes to the tennis on the red dirt, but it was Yannick Hanfmann who showed a bit more last season. Neither enjoyed much positive form in the opening month of the season, but the slightly superior return performances produced by Hanfmann on the clay courts over the last twelve months should help him come through.

He has also won all three previous matches against Varillas and all three wins have been on the clay courts.

Yannick Hanfmann's win last year in Madrid was the toughest of the three victories over this opponent, but he still holds the mental edge.

The German has been the stronger player in the return part of any match against Juan Pablo Varillas and Yannick Hanfmann can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Monday, 6 February 2023

Tennis Picks 2023 (February 6th)

The solid return from the Australian Open and the ATP Tour having a week off to get a few Davis Cup ties played this past weekend contributed to my decision to take a short break from the Tennis Picks.

However, the first full week in February brings us the first 500 level event of the season when the WTA Tour begins a trip around the Middle East in Abu Dhabi and that will bring together some of the best players on that side of the two Tennis Tours.

The South American Golden Swing sees some early clay court action ahed of the move onto the European clay courts in April- we have Cordoba, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro and Santiago to come in the weeks ahead, while the indoor European hard court tournaments begin Montpellier before moving to Rotterdam and Marseille.

A slight change in the Tour schedule means the tournament in Doha has also been moved to this month in the week before the 500 event held annually in Dubai and it is a very busy month before the back to back Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami in March.


I won't have Tennis Picks from every tournament being played this week, at least not every day, but I am looking to build on the start made in Australia last month after what was an underperforming 2022.

Hopefully the Australian Open was the beginning of a really good season rather than being an outlier.

I should have a thread with more analysis behind some of my selections on Tuesday and through the rest of the week, but on Monday I have just found Picks from the First Round in Cordoba.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Friday, 5 February 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 6-8)

It has been a difficult season for real life football players and those of us playing the Fantasy Football games, especially with deadlines coming around every couple of days.

Things will at least slow down for Fantasy players with games moving into a weekly pattern over the next three months, but the reality is that there is going to be rotation with clubs involved in the FA Cup and European competitions that get back underway in February and are played through the remainder of the season.

I'll have a few thoughts about the Premier League games to be played this weekend and then get into my thoughts about GameWeek 23 after some miserable luck in GameWeek 22 to encapsulate my season.


Aston Villa v Arsenal Pick: Both Aston Villa and Arsenal are looking to bounce back from extremely disappointing results during the latest round of Premier League fixtures and inconsistent performances from both over the last month makes this a difficult game to read.

Since returning from their Covid-19 outbreak, Aston Villa have won 2 and lost 3 Premier League games which is about where they should be if you take performance levels into account. They were fortunate to beat Southampton, but unlucky to lose to Burnley, and I think Aston Villa have just hit the wall a little bit when it comes to how they are progressing.

Some of that has to be down to the fallout from the Covid-19 outbreak, but I also think the team have been overachieving at times and perhaps in a higher position than they deserve.

In saying that there are some talented players at Aston Villa who have gotten forward and created chances. Defensively they are not the best, but I do think Aston Villa can cause problems for an Arsenal team that could be without three of their preferred back line.

At the same time I do think Arsenal will be able to create chances here as their young players continue to play with very little to lose. Those youngsters are going to learn from the experiences, but Mikel Arteta's team are also struggling for consistency through the learning process and they can be a difficult team to work out.

In recent away games Arsenal have been creating more chances and looking stronger, but this is still a team who struggle with the balance between attack and defence. I think that leaves them vulnerable at times and Aston Villa have gotten the better of them in both Premier League games played over the last seven months.

This one should be close with confidence perhaps not the best in either camp- the first goal could be all important with that in mind, but I think the home team may have a narrow edge with their ability in the final third.

It should be close and competitive, but I believe Aston Villa edge this in what is shaping up to be a Premier League round of fixtures with a number of tight games to call.

Aston Villa home games and Arsenal away games have not featured too many draws this season and I think the former can just about do enough to earn the full three points.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: The last month has been very productive for both Burnley and Brighton who have earned some important points to move towards safety and they have also progressed to the FA Cup Fifth Round.

There are other similarities- Liverpool had not lost a League game at Anfield since April 2017, but Burnley snapped that with a 0-1 win at that ground only to be followed by Brighton who did the same this past weekend.

It is a happy similarity, but there is another which will be less pleasing to both Sean Dyche and Graham Potter. With smaller squads than the top clubs, both Dyche and Potter are dealing with several injuries in the squad that have not been helped by the fact that fixtures are needing to be played every few days at this stage of the season.

The two teams have FA Cup Fifth Round fixtures to come during the week so there is no time to rest or feel sorry for themselves and this is an important game down the bottom of the Premier League. The winning team will feel they are almost securing top flight football for another season, although the losing team won't be overly concerned.

It could mean an open approach to the game, but I also think both clubs would likely settle for a point and we did see a goalless draw when Brighton hosted Burnley three months ago. That was yet another game where Brighton have looked threatening going forward without scoring the goals they have deserved, but it was also another fixture in which they have played pretty well defensively.

Defensive performances have been very important for Brighton over the last couple of weeks with 4 clean sheets in a row in the Premier League. They haven't been fortunate either and Brighton may feel they can restrict a Burnley team which has not scored a lot of goals this season and who have not been blessed with a huge amount of chances in recent games either.

Burnley have defended well enough themselves and I think this will be a tight fixture and I am not expecting a lot of goals. With the strong defensive showings that Brighton have put together, I think one of these teams will fail to find the net and another goalless draw can't be ruled out either, a point suiting both teams after tough weeks.

I don't think either manager will settle for that, but I can see both looking to keep things tight and making sure the defensive approach is right towards the game. With some key players missing in both squads, I will look for at least one clean sheet to be produced from this fixture as both clubs keep ticking along and pressurising those three clubs in the relegation zone.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: There was a big moment in the 2nd minute of both Newcastle United's and Southampton's last Premier League match.

The Magpies took the lead against Crystal Palace in that minute but were eventually beaten 1-2, while Southampton were reduced to ten men at Manchester United and took severe punishment for the remaining 88 minutes in their 9-0 defeat.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back from a really poor result, but I have to give the edge to Newcastle United who are set as the home underdog. You can't ignore the recent form and the 3 home League losses in succession, but Newcastle United have created plenty of chances in the last 2 here and perhaps should have earned more points than they have.

They should be able to do the same against a Southampton team who are stretched to the limit with injuries and have lost two more players to suspension. The Saints should have earned a positive result against Aston Villa last weekend at home, but they have regressed to the mean when it comes to their conversion rate in the final third.

Earlier this season Southampton were being very clinical in the final third, but in recent games they have struggled for chances and the goals have dried up too. That has to be a concern for Ralph Hasenhuttl, but there is really nothing he can do with the team perhaps struggling through a period when the fixtures have been coming thick and fast and with little rest given to those who have to start most of them.

I think Southampton still have some quality players that can cause problems for Newcastle United, but the home team should be fresher and have been creating chances. I think that will eventually lead to better results if they continue on their current path and Newcastle United should be able to punish a Southampton defence which has struggled in recent away games.

Steve Bruce will be looking for his players to extend their home winning run against Southampton as Newcastle United search for a fourth win in a row here against this opponent. I feel they can edge to the points if they create the kind of chances they have in their recent home games as well as how Newcastle United played at Everton last weekend and I will look for them to get the better of Southampton.


Fulham v West Ham United Pick: This has been a volatile season, but on current form it is hard to look beyond West Ham United to earn another victory when they visit Craven Cottage on Saturday afternoon.

David Moyes might be seen as a manager who is more focused on his defensive organisation, but West Ham United have looked really good going forward over the last five weeks. They are creating a lot of chances and Jesse Lingard is the latest to thrive in the system having scored twice in the 1-3 win at Villa Park on Wednesday.

It was another deserved win and West Ham United are not giving too much away in their own defensive third which makes them very dangerous.

The manager will be looking to keep the momentum going as West Ham United have the chance to move into the top four with a victory, even for a few hours. There is a big FA Cup tie coming up at Old Trafford, but David Moyes will want to have some momentum going into that fixture and his West Ham United have won 4 away games in a row in all competitions and will want to extend that before the visit to one of his former clubs.

At the same time as West Ham United have been playing with confidence, Fulham have been struggling and they were beaten again last time out against Leicester City. In recent weeks Scott Parker had made his team harder to beat, but even that has begun to change in a negative direction and Fulham have lost their last 4 at Craven Cottage.

They have lost 4 of their last 6, while even the draw at Brighton saw Fulham ride their luck to a clean sheet.

Fulham have scored a single goal in their last 6 games at home in all competitions which is a major concern and especially when you add in how well West Ham United have been defending. During that poor run in front of goal, Fulham have found it hard to keep the backdoor shut too and I think The Hammers will have too much for them this weekend.


Manchester United v Everton Pick: It has been a remarkably strange season to this stage and home advantage has clearly been weakened.

Everton underline the point having won almost twice as many away games in the Premier League compared with wins at Goodison Park. They have won their last 4 away Premier League games including at Leeds United during the week and Everton will head to Old Trafford knowing teams have had considerable successes here over the last few months.

We didn't see any evidence of that on Tuesday when Manchester United crushed Southampton 9-0, but that was a fixture against an injury hit side who were reduced to ten men inside two minutes. A controversial Penalty was then awarded to Manchester United late on which sparked a late run of goals following another sending off, but that result alone should not cover the issues United have had playing here without fans.

They have scored 22 home League goals, but 15 have come against Leeds United and Southampton and Manchester United have only scored more than a single goal in 3 of their 11 home League games this season.

However they did manage three against Liverpool in a recent FA Cup win and Manchester United will recognise that Everton are a team who have not always defended as well as the results would indicate. Sheffield United and Wolves deserved more than they got against Everton and Leeds United might also feel hard done by which should be encouraging to Manchester United as they look to put some pressure on Liverpool and Manchester City before they face off on Sunday.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be looking to keep his players focused and he will be hoping Edinson Cavani is passed fit. This won't be an easy game for Manchester United when you consider how well Everton have played away from home, but I think the home team are creating more chances than their visitors.

It should make the difference on the day and I think Manchester United will be able to earn the three points here.

Everton could play their part here, but I think Manchester United will have enough quality in the final third to produce a victory in a game that will likely feature at least two goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: Two teams who are desperate for three points meet in the early Sunday afternoon slot in North London and both Tottenham Hotspur and West Brom have been struggling for form.

It certainly does make it a little more difficult to know which of these teams are going to get the better of things on the day- most will fancy Tottenham Hotspur to win, but they have created very little going forward in their last 3 games in the Premier League since Harry Kane went down with an injury.

All of those games have ended in defeat for Tottenham Hotspur who have made some tremendously poor mistakes inside their own final third which has offered encouragement to their opponents. Liverpool punished them, but both Brighton and Chelsea needed just a single goal to earn the victory over Tottenham Hotspur.

Jose Mourinho insists the players are still playing for one another, but his teams have a habit of making slow starts in recent years. The manager can say that he doesn't want his players to do that, but whatever is being worked on during the week has resulted in poor starts.

Fatigue is also causing an issue for Tottenham Hotspur as Mourinho doesn't rotate his squad as much as some fans would like and I do think this is a tougher fixture than it looks on paper.

I won't overestimate West Brom who have conceded twice to both Fulham and Sheffield United over the last week and earned a single point from a possible 6 available. Those results have left West Brom mired inside the bottom three and Sam Allardye is unlikely to be able to extend his record of never being relegated from the Premier League unless he is Sacked before that is confirmed.

Since Allardyce took over at The Hawthorns, his best results have come away from home but there haven't been enough of them.

The amount of goals being shipped has to be a major concern for West Brom and there is little sign of that changing, but Tottenham Hotspur are not exactly firing on all fronts. There was a slight suggestion that Harry Kane could potentially return, which would give Tottenham Hotspur a huge boost, but the lack of consistency in the final third could make it difficult to break what is expected to be a low block from the visitors.

West Brom have only conceded a single goal at Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool in the Premier League this season and they have earned draws at the latter two clubs which has to be respected. I expect Sam Allardyce will be looking for his team to make life as difficult as possible for an out of form opponent, but Tottenham Hotspur have been decent enough defensively to think they can limit the chances created by The Baggies too.

When they met earlier this season it took a very late goal for Tottenham Hotspur to win the game, and goals may not be on the agenda on Sunday either. West Brom might have conceded far too many goals of late, but they are unlikely to really want to take risks and will feel this Tottenham Hotspur team could be frustrated the longer the game is kept goalless.

7 of the last 9 between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and that may be the case again.


Wolves v Leicester City Pick: The feeling is that the experiences of last season will stand Leicester City in good stead as they bid to go a little better in 2020/21 and return Champions League Football to the King Power Stadium. Brendan Rodgers would love to pick up silverware too, but the focus has to be the Premier League after seeing the second half collapse which cost Leicester City a top four spot in the last campaign.

It made the win at Fulham even more important as Leicester City had drawn with Everton and lost to Leeds United prior to that, games in which they would have targeted a minimum of four points from. Instead of dragging out the run without a victory, Leicester City were comfortable winners at Craven Cottage and could be boosted by the returns of Wilfred Ndidi and Jamie Vardy this week.

Like many teams in the Premier League, Leicester City have thrived on their travels compared with games at the King Power Stadium. The victory on Wednesday means Leicester City have won 8 away League games compared with 5 home League wins and they are very dangerous in these settings as they expose spaces that home teams are almost obliged to leave behind.

That may not be the case when they face Wolves on Sunday- their Midlands rivals have largely been pretty productive defensively even if their results have been disappointing of late. The 2-1 win over Arsenal will be a boost in confidence for the Wolves players and there is pace and quality in the wide areas which make them dangerous if at their best.

However I am concerned with some of the spaces Wolves left for Arsenal who could have been out of sight before losing David Luiz to a red card on the stroke of half time. This Leicester City team have shown they can be very creative on their travels and I do think The Foxes will be more dangerous now Jamie Vardy is set for a return.

It would not be a huge surprise if one of the teams fail to score but that means my lean is towards a Leicester City win with the visitors more likely to earn that clean sheet.

They have looked dangerous away from home and are creating chances and I think Leicester City will just about have enough to secure the three points as they keep their title challenge and top four ambitions alive through another week.

Wolves can be very good on their day, but without Raul Jimenez I do think this team is not as strong as they would otherwise be. They looked to be on course for a third home loss in a row before the sending off which changed the game against Arsenal and Wolves still look a little unsure of themselves which will only benefit the visiting team.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: When the fixture list was produced a few months ago I think most would have circled this one as being likely to be between the two leading contenders for the Premier League title.

No one will have been surprised by that with Liverpool and Manchester City winning the last three Premier League trophies and with the two clubs so far ahead of the rest in those campaigns.

After a slow start Manchester City look to be fulfilling their role, but Liverpool have had a miserable month and that has seen them lose their place at the top of the Premier League. Not only lose it, but fall down to 4th place and 7 points behind their main title rivals who also have a game in hand.

Injuries have piled up at Anfield having had two relatively healthy campaigns and these have really hurt their chances of retaining the title won for the first time in thirty years. Back to back home losses to Burnley and Brighton have ended the aura around playing at Anfield which had been built by an unbeaten League run here stretching back to April 2017 and Jurgen Klopp has to be massively worried by the fact his team have not scored in their last 3 League games here.

No one is going to ignore the attacking talent Liverpool have, but if Sadio Mane is missing they are weakened. The midfield does not look as functional without Jordan Henderson and Fabinho playing in those positions and the latter may be missing even if the Captain is pushed forward having started at centre half during the week.

That leaves Liverpool vulnerable and now they have to face up to a Manchester City team who have won 13 in a row in all competitions and who look like they are playing with confidence. I do think they are not the same without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero, but Manchester City's foundation for success has been built upon a strong defensive base and that is going to be important on Sunday too.

Since losing 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City have conceded a single goal in 5 away Premier League games and I do think Pep Guardiola will be urging his players to not give anything away here. Even in the defeat to Spurs, Manchester City did not offer up too many big chances but were punished on the counter attack.

They have changed the base of the midfield since that loss to only make themselves tougher to beat and Manchester City have also been more careful with their approach going forward. In big games we have seen Manchester City not being as gung-ho as we have become accustomed to and I do think the lack of goals in those games is down to that solidness they are looking to put on the field.

Liverpool are struggling in front of goal, but they have only conceded more than a single goal in 1 of their last 14 home games in all competitions. And while Manchester City have shown more clinical finishing in the final third in recent away Premier League games, I think it is hard to ignore the fact they failed to score at Spurs and Manchester United in the League.

On the other side Manchester City have shown plenty of defensive solidity of late and Liverpool have not scored in their last 3 League games here. The current Champions might not concede a lot of goals at home, but they have also only scored more than a single goal in 2 of their last 8 at Anfield and I think these are numbers being underestimated by the layers.

Most will be expecting goals, but half of the last 6 between Liverpool and Manchester City have finished with less than three goals scored. On recent form I think this fixture could easily go the same way with neither looking to give too much away and I do think the price on the under 2.5 goals is far too big to be ignored.


Sheffield United v Chelsea Pick: Both Chris Wilder and Thomas Tuchel have to be very pleased with what they are seeing from their respective teams ahead of this latest Premier League fixture, although Sheffield United and Chelsea will be desperate for the three points for different needs.

A draw really doesn't do a lot for either team, but the improved form of Sheffield United makes the outcome a little more murky.

Even then it would be a surprise if Chelsea can't continue their revival under their new manager having earned 3 clean sheets in a row. In the last 2 games Chelsea have looked a little more threatening going forward having largely struggled in the goalless draw with Wolves, and I think that does give them the edge.

However, I am not sure I can be convinced this is going to be an easy game for Chelsea because of the way Sheffield United have been playing. They are not as strong as they were last season, but I think a part of the issue has been about the inches that were going their way twelve months ago are now going against them.

Sheffield United have won 2 of their last 3 home games and recently also won at Old Trafford in the Premier League. That has to be respected, but Chelsea look like they have had some of their confidence restored by Thomas Tuchel and the performances have looked good.

This will be close and competitive, but I think Chelsea will be the one that takes home the three points. The handicap looks right on the money, but picking Chelsea to win by either one or two goals brings a decent enough price together.

It would be a massive surprise if Chelsea were to win by a wider margin in the form that Sheffield United are displaying. For all of their struggles, Chris Wilder's men rarely roll over for anyone and especially not at home, while Chelsea are being solid, but are not battering teams and instead grinding them down.

Chelsea have only won a single away Premier League game by more than two goals since October 2019 and I think this will be a narrow away win on Sunday afternoon in what could be cold, cold conditions.


Leeds United v Crystal Palace Pick: Monday Night Football has been given a new fixture after both Manchester United and Everton progressed to the FA Cup Fifth Round and it will be Leeds United and Crystal Palace who go into action instead.

Both teams exited the FA Cup in the Third Round and are focusing on finishing as high as possible in the Premier League having displayed inconsistencies all season.

Leeds United have really struggled for results at Elland Road with the playing surface recently needing work done on it. The latest setback saw Leeds United beaten by Everton which means back to back home Premier League defeats, although they are still creating chances.

Defensively there are questions, but I am not sure Crystal Palace can expose the issues at the back. Wilfred Zaha is likely going to miss out and there is a long injury list at Selhurst Park which will give Roy Hodgson limited opportunities to rotate his squad.

Crystal Palace have won back to back Premier League games to ease any relegation concerns that may have been lingering in the minds of the players and the fans.

However it will be difficult for Crystal Palace to contain Leeds United without the out ball that Zaha will provide and they were fortunate to win at Newcastle United who had some strong chances. They are likely going to be challenged by Leeds United who love to send players forward to get into attacking positions, although I have to respect the ability of Crystal Palace from set pieces which is a big Achilles heel for Leeds United.

It would not be a big surprise to see Crystal Palace score when you think of the way they are likely going to approach getting at Leeds United.

But at the same time I do think Leeds United will be the latest to get after Crystal Palace and create chances. Much will depend on what kind of mood they are in when those chances come up, but Leeds United should have enough to secure the points in this latest Premier League fixture before finally having some time to prepare for the next one.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap
Burnley-Brighton Both Teams to Score- NO
Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur-West Brom Under 2.5 Goals
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool-Manchester City Both Teams to Score- NO
Chelsea to Win by One or Two Goals
Leeds United


Fantasy Football GameWeek 23
The scores may be ticking along pretty nicely, but I don't seem to be getting too many breaks this season which is negatively affecting the move I want to make up the standings.

Luke Shaw and Marcus Rashford both being withdrawn before the 60th minute mark on Tuesday really did underline some of the poor luck I feel my team is getting and that despite the consistent scores being produced.

It isn't only the fact that at least seven points were shaved off, but playing a ten man Southampton was a great chance to haul and the points were effectively gobbled up by Bruno Fernandes thanks to a dodgy Penalty and a late collapse from a then nine man opponent.

That hurts- instead of looking to make up some points with a couple of difference makers, the big name players earned the backdoor bonus.

It is frustrating, but there is still someway to go until the end of the season and at least my reasoning that some of the postponed games from earlier in the campaign would need to be made up sooner than later has benefited my squad. Without any more transfers I have at least five players in a DGW in both GW24 and GW25 and that does make my decisions a little easier this week and that is finally rolling over a transfer.


What is my main reasoning for that? I think the FA Cup Fifth Round being played during the week will give us a really good idea as to what shape DGW26 is going to take and I may be able to put a strong team out there and potentially even use a Chip without impacting my Free Hit or Wild Card which could then be used in April as I have always envisioned it could be.

As I have written about previously, I am convinced that the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur will definitely have two games in DGW26, but you could add the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton and Aston Villa to that list which could make it the biggest DGW left this season and perhaps the last chance to really use the Bench Boost to the fullest effect.

Leicester City are another likely to be playing twice that week and I think I could have as many as 12 players who could play twice that week which makes the three transfers between now and then very valuable. And also leave the Bench Boost Chip a perfect one to play.


Three of the seven games that are definitely going to need to be re-arranged have been given those dates in February, but I would not be surprised if we add Aston Villa vs Everton to the list in what is currently only a DGW for Leeds United and Southampton.

Aston Villa in particular could have as many as three postponed games by the end of the FA Cup Fifth Round if Sheffield United win their home tie against Championship Bristol City, while they are scheduled to play Manchester City on FA Cup Semi Final weekend and who would bet against them reaching a Cup Semi Final to force another postponement?

There are only so many free midweeks in which you can play games and once again I will say it would be risky for the Premier League to kick too many cans down the road. The decision about the Aston Villa-Everton game will be dependant on results in the FA Cup Fifth Round, but I think wins for Sheffield United and Tottenham Hotspur in their individual ties may force the Premier League to at least add another fixture to GW25.


The uncertainty about which fixtures are going to be postponed in GW29 on FA Cup Quarter Final weekend does make it easier to look to roll a transfer through this week. The Captain choice is perhaps the most difficult one to make this week and I am looking to choose between my Manchester United and Leeds United assets if I am being honest, but I will have a think about that up until the deadline on Saturday morning.

Ross Barkley was brought into my squad with little return during GW22, but the long-term picture was in mind with. Aston Villa needing to make up a host of fixtures already. I am a little worried about the performances of Aston Villa out of the Covid-19 outbreak, but those extra games can't be ignored as I look to chase down some leaders in my Mini-Leagues as well as getting closer to the top 100K in the standings.

Thursday, 6 February 2020

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 6th)

The remainder of the Second Round matches in Cordoba, Montpellier and Pune are going to be played on Thursday as the three ATP tournaments continue this week.

The Fed Cup will begin this weekend which is the reason there are no WTA events scheduled for this week, but there are some big tournaments to be played in the remainder of the month including the Middle East events in Doha and Dubai.

We didn't have the big, big names out on Tour this past week, but it is an important one for those who are playing as they bid to improve Rankings which in turn leads to better Grand Slam draws. The Quarter Final line up in all three tournaments will be set by the end of Thursday and you can see my Picks from the remaining Second Round matches below.

I will add the Weekly Update on Thursday morning when the Cordoba Picks from Wednesday have been completed.


MY PICKS: Egor Gerasimov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Soon Woo Kwon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-6, - 7.36 Units (18 Units Staked, - 40.89% Yield)

Wednesday, 6 February 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 6th)

There were very few Tennis matches that fit my criteria last week although I will admit a couple did come close before I ultimately decided to pass on those.

While having a limited number of Picks, it was another good week as the season totals were added to.

I would imagine there are going to be more matches fitting into my reckoning this week and in fact this Wednesday will have more selections than the entirety of last week. The three ATP tournaments are the main focus, but Fed Cup matches are being played all week too and could be part of the selection plan if matches are put together and markets are formulated.


I won't have my full analysis of the matches to be played in the First and Second Rounds at the tournaments that are being played on Wednesday, but you can see those selections below.


MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 31.64 Units (219 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Tuesday, 6 February 2018

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 6-7)

Tuesday 6th February is an important day for Manchester United and everyone associated with the club as it comes 60 years after the Munich Air Disaster which took the lives of so many of the Busby Babes.

It's always important to remember those who have come before.

The Flowers of Manchester will be remembered forever.


This week is the one really quiet one in the February Football calendar with a few FA Cup Fourth Round Replays to be played ahead of the resumption of the Champions League and Europa League and the Knock Out Rounds next week.

Some teams will get a little more rest than others in February with the Fifth Round of the FA Cup taking place in the middle weekend of the month and not at the expense of League games. However for some of the big clubs in England it is another busy month with those European games to come alongside League matters with so much still to play for at this stage of the campaign.


Birmingham City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The chance to host Manchester United in a live FA Cup Fifth Round tie is on the line for both Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town as they meet in a Fourth Round Replay on Tuesday. That will encourage the players, but the motivations of the two managers may not be more contrasting.

While Steve Cotterill has started to see his Birmingham City team put a little gap between themselves and the bottom three in the Championship, David Wagner's Huddersfield Town slipped into the bottom three of the Premier League this weekend having lost 5 straight League games.

There is no doubt the home game against Bournemouth this weekend is the priority for Wagner and getting the chance to host Manchester United again next season is a bigger draw than playing them at home again in the 2017/18 campaign.

No manager wants to lose a game deliberately, but the Wagner team selection is likely to see a number of fringe players starting with the key players rested for Sunday.

On the other hand Cotterill can pick a strong team as Birmingham City have been improving and have some momentum behind them. The home fans will be desperate to welcome Manchester United in the Fifth Round and I think the manager and players are also going to be very keen to see that happen.

Birmingham City have won 3 of their last 4 games at home and while there is a big gap between the teams in the League standings, the team selection may just lean towards the home team being the better one on the day.

It will be close as Birmingham City can be a little up and down at home, but they look to be improving at the right time. This fixture also comes at a better time for The Blues than Huddersfield Town and backing the home team on the Asian Handicap does at least return the stake in the event of a draw.

I do think they are the more likelier of the sides to win the game though and I will back Birmingham City here.


Rochdale v Millwall Pick: The winner of this tie is very likely to face Tottenham Hotspur at home in the FA Cup Fifth Round and that is going to make this Fourth Round Replay a little more tense.

Both Rochdale and Millwall will very much want to be in the position to host one of the best teams in England with the financial rewards on offer for a televised game.

After the 2-2 draw at the New Den the feeling is that Rochdale may have missed their best chance to beat Millwall. They were leading going into injury time on that day before having to settle for a Replay and Rochdale have not been in great form in recent weeks even though they did win this past weekend.

The struggles have come at Spotland too with back to back losses and Rochdale are taking on a Millwall team that have recently found consecutive away wins at a higher level. Millwall did blow a 0-2 lead here in the League last season before settling for a 3-3 draw, but they are a team playing with confidence and can get the better of Rochdale in the Fourth Round Replay.

It will be a tough game with the knowledge of the reward that is on the line, but Millwall can show their superior quality in the Replay.

At odds against they are worth backing to avoid the upset and move through to another FA Cup Fifth Round.


Swansea City v Notts County Pick: The Premier League remains the priority for Swansea City, but Carlos Carvalhal has picked strong teams in the FA Cup and that has helped build some momentum in the League too.

There is potentially more motivation for the manager personally as the winner of this tie gets to play at Hillsborough in the Fifth Round- Carvalhal was sacked by Sheffield Wednesday days before taking over as manager of Swansea City and the chance to return to his former club will be one he relishes.

I don't think the approach to the FA Cup will change from Carvalhal and that should see a strong Swansea City team picked.

They will respect League Two Notts County who gave a good account of themselves in the 1-1 draw in the initial tie in Nottingham. However this is a much different test for them having to travel to a Premier League club and I think the lower League club will end up coming up short.

While I don't think Swansea City will blow past Notts County, I do think they can perhaps catch Notts County chasing the game and potentially getting a little tired in the last twenty minutes of this Replay. That should see them able to win this fixture by a couple of goals on the evening and I will back Swansea City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newport County Pick: The only real question about this FA Cup Fourth Round tie is the kind of team that Mauricio Pochettino will pick for Tottenham Hotspur during a tough period in their season. With games to come against Arsenal in the Premier League and Juventus in the Champions League, the manager is likely going to see this as a chance to rest some key players.

However he has picked strong teams in the FA Cup this season despite playing against opponents that many would feel would give Tottenham Hotspur a chance for more rotation. For example Harry Kane and Jan Vertonghen have both started in the games against Wimbledon and Newport County as Pochettino seems to have made silverware a real priority.

The Fifth Round will see Tottenham Hotspur either visit Millwall or Rochdale which gives Spurs a very good chance of reaching the Quarter Final of the FA Cup again this season.

No one will be taking Newport County for granted having seen the League Two team play as well as they did at Rodney Parade in the initial tie. That was played on a pitch that was not the best though and it will be much tougher to repeat that at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur should be very comfortable playing their football.

Barring a real shock team selection, Tottenham Hotspur should be able to make some rotations and still have a team capable of winning this match fairly comfortably. They beat Wimbledon 3-0 at home in the Third Round and I can see Newport County perhaps having a similar night out as they struggle to maintain their fitness levels to the same place as Tottenham Hotspur.

That may mean Tottenham Hotspur are able to hit Newport County with a couple of late strikes that enables them to win this game fairly comfortably on the night. I will back the home team to win and cover the Asian Handicap to keep the momentum going as they move towards the North London derby this weekend.

MY PICKS: Birmingham City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet365 (2 Units)
Millwall @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Swansea City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Saturday, 6 February 2016

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (February 6-7)

The big story coming into the weekend football in the Premier League is the top of the table clash in the Premier League to open this round of fixtures as Manchester City host Leicester City.

There is no doubting this is the acid test for Leicester City who go to The Etihad Stadium this weekend and then visit The Emirates Stadium next weekend as to whether they can sustain a Premier League title challenge. If Leicester City can pick up four points from their next two games, Leicester City might actually be heading into the final round of fixtures in February as the favourite to win the title, something I could not have imagined at the beginning of the season.


The last game of the weekend might have been expected to have much bigger consequences than what we have when Chelsea play Manchester United. However there are renewed reports that Jose Mourinho has been asked to take over at Old Trafford this summer and that should cast a shadow over the game involving his last club and possibly the next club Mourinho manages.

I have little doubt that Sky will look to that angle as a way to promote what is an underwhelming game with both Chelsea and Manchester United underachieving. However, I do think it could be one of the better games of the weekend as two teams with a big need to earn the three points meet one another.


It is the 6th February... The Flowers of Manchester will be remembered on the 58th Anniversary of the Munich Air Disaster.


Manchester City v Leicester City Pick: The top of the Premier League is up for grabs when Manchester City meet Leicester City at The Etihad Stadium and this looks a very intriguing game.

I do think the absence of the likes of Vincent Kompany and Kevin De Bruyne is a big blow to Manchester City while we still don't know for sure how the players are responding to Manuel Pellegrini announcing his departure at the end of the season. They looked poor in the second half at Sunderland, but Manchester City did win that game and they are a much stronger team at home.

Manchester City have won seven of their last eight games at home in all competitions and it is tough to stop them winning games if they are scoring at least three goals in each as they have in those seven wins. Everton did earn a goalless draw here, but Sergio Aguero looks in much stronger form at this point and I think they will test an improved Leicester City defence.

I also do have a lot of respect for Leicester City who have won the most away games in the Premier League at this moment in time. However, they might have just begun to hit a wall on their travels as Leicester City were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa and were beaten at Liverpool on Boxing Day.

Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez both have the kind of pace to really hurt this Manchester City backline, but I think Leicester City will need to be at their very best defensively to stay in this game. The counter attack will make Leicester City very dangerous and they will have their chances as I think Manchester City will dominate the ball and they aren't as good defensively without Kompany.

However, Manchester City are scoring a lot of goals at home at the moment and I think they will win this game. Clean sheets have been a problem for Manchester City so I do think Leicester City will play their part, but ultimately I fancy the home team to sneak the victory on Saturday.


Liverpool v Sunderland PickThere are a lot of positives that Sunderland can take out of their performance against Manchester City and reaching those levels consistently will give them a great chance of avoiding the drop. The games at the Stadium of Light have been more competitive from Sunderland's view, but this is a team that has to improve markedly on their travels if they are to get out of the bottom three.

Conceding too many goals is a big problem for Sunderland away from home but they are going up against a Liverpool team that have just struggled of late. It has been hard for them at Anfield where the expectation is Liverpool getting forward and scoring goals, but Jurgen Klopp doesn't seem to have a lot of faith in Christian Benteke and the false nine isn't working as it should.

Liverpool have actually failed to score the last three times they have played Premier League opponents at Anfield and I think it might be asking too much for them to win this one by more than a single goal. That is if they win at all and Sunderland must be looking at this game and thinking there are 'surprise' points to be had to help them in their battle against relegation.

This has been a tough fixture for Liverpool in recent seasons as they haven't turned it into three point as often as they like. The players are still trying to figure what exactly Klopp wants from them and not having the focal point up front has been tough to deal with.

If Sunderland can just defend properly, they will have a chance to get something out of this game. The side have a decent recent record at Anfield and backing Sunderland on the Double Chance to avoid losing has to be worth a small interest, especially when considering Liverpool have won 1 of their last 6 games here against Premier League opponents.


Stoke City v Everton PickThis is a really big game for both Stoke City and Everton for different reasons- Stoke City can't afford to let a promising season fizzle out in February, while Everton need to keep the pressure off of Roberto Martinez from the stands.

It was a contrasting week for the two teams as Stoke City lost both games played while Everton moved into the FA Cup Fifth Round before crushing Newcastle United.

Goals have surprisingly become a problem for Stoke City in recent games, but they are facing an Everton team that does concede goals. John Stones is out which makes them a little more vulnerable and Stoke City will be able to create chances through an inspiring front four that haven't sparked as well as they could in recent games.

On the other hand I think Everton will be confident they can create chances themselves even if Romelu Lukaku is potentially out. Ross Barkley has been in strong form and Stoke City look vulnerable at the back without Ryan Shawcross who is likely out until the end of the month.

These two teams played a very entertaining game when they met at Goodison Park five weeks ago and I can see this match being similar. Both teams should have chances to get on the scoreboard and backing there being at least three goals at odds against looks an appealing option.


Tottenham Hotspur v Watford PickWhen you think about it, it would be just like Tottenham Hotspur to get into this position of being considered genuine Premier League title contenders and then lay an absolute egg of a game. The form at White Hart Lane has been a lot more mixed than away from home and Watford have proved they are anything but an easy out for any team in the Premier League.

The away team have a dangerous front two that will test this Tottenham Hotspur defence that is amongst the best in the Premier League. That should keep Tottenham Hotspur focused who had a much more comfortable game during the week than Watford and I do think the likes of Dele Alli and Harry Kane are in very strong form that does give the home team the edge.

One trend that might not be easy to ignore is the fact that Watford have failed to score in their last couple of away games in the Premier League.

It has to be a concern for Watford who have put in so much effort over the last seven days in their last couple of games and I think Tottenham Hotspur can take advantage. My concern is the way that Spurs have played at White Hart Lane in recent games as they have struggled with the balance between attack and defence, but this is a young team full of confidence and the momentum behind them is hard to ignore.

I just think Tottenham Hotspur are going to be a little too strong on the day and I like them to win this one by a couple of goals.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: This was originally set to be played on Monday Night Football, but West Ham United are involved in a FA Cup Fourth Round Replay this week meaning it was shifted to the late Saturday slot.

It looks a good game between Southampton and West Ham United who are both chasing European places from their Premier League form. Both teams are in the top half of the table and I think Southampton are about par as to where their goals were for the season, while The Hammers are overachieving.

Even though I think this is an intriguing game, it might not be one that sees too many goals scored by the teams involved. Both Southampton and West Ham United have been defending well and I can see this one being a tight game that could struggle to reach the three goal mark.

When they meet at Upton Park, the goals do tend to follow this fixture, but it has not been the case when the fixture is played on the South Coast. Last season it was a goalless draw, the second in a row since Southampton returned to the top flight, and the last six times they have played one another here we have seen two goals or fewer shared out.

With both teams knowing the importance of the three points on offer, I believe this fixture could see the teams cancel one another out and I will back there being two or fewer goals in the game.


Bournemouth v Arsenal PickI have to say the neutrals watching this game on Sunday should see plenty of good football as both Bournemouth and Arsenal look to impose their passing style against the other. There is pace and quality in the final third for both clubs too and I think there will definitely be goals in the game.

That looks an appealing price at odds against on first glance and I wouldn't be surprised if we see at least three goals shared between them.

However, the more appealing angle for me is backing Arsenal at a big price to win here.

This is actually a bigger price than Manchester United were to win at Bournemouth although the home team is arguably in better form now than they were in December. However, Bournemouth had won at Chelsea the week before that game against Manchester United and I have to think Arsenal would be a lot shorter if they had held on to beat Liverpool when leading 2-3 into the final minutes of that game at Anfield.

Arsenal would have definitely been shorter if they had taken one of a number of great chances against Southampton at home during the week and I think they will win this game if they create half as many chances. Bournemouth will allow Arsenal to play their football which is a big danger and the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez did everything but score on Tuesday.

Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United have won by wide margins here and I think Arsenal are capable of becoming yet another London team to earn the three points in this part of England. Bournemouth will likely play their part and I wouldn't be surprised if Benik Afobe pops up to score, but Arsenal have too much attacking talent to be held off the scoreboard again and I like them to win here.


Chelsea v Manchester United PickThe layers are not expecting a lot of goals when Chelsea meet Manchester United on Sunday in the second live game of the day, but I do think they might be missing something.

This is an important game for both teams but Chelsea have less to lose with their top four ambitions gone. Guus Hiddink is likely to ask his team to get forward and pressure Manchester United with Diego Costa leading the line unlike the game at Old Trafford where they played with a false nine.

And goals at Stamford Bridge have not been in short supply as Chelsea have scored at least twice in their last 6 games here in all competitions. However they haven't been winning games because Chelsea have kept a single clean sheet in their last 5 games at Stamford Bridge and have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 games.

Defensively they have looked suspect and this Manchester United team have actually scored more away goals than they have at home in the Premier League. They scored 3 at Newcastle United and at Derby County recently and 4 of Manchester United's last 6 away games have seen at least three goals shared by the teams.

Last season it did end 1-0 to Chelsea here, but the previous 4 Premier League games here between these teams had produced at least three goals. Anyone who has seen the last two times Chelsea and Manchester United have met should not have missed the chances that have been created even if the goals have not followed and I can see a big price looking overpriced at the end of this one.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Draw or Sunderland Double Chance @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)


February Update: 4-2-1, + 3.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 26.14% Yield)

January Final19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)
December Final15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/1687-128-5, - 38.37 Units (467 Units Staked, - 8.22% Yield)
Season 2014/15159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)