Premier League Darts Night 11 Picks 2026 (Thursday 16th April)

Just six weeks remain in the Premier League Darts before we enter the Play Offs at the end of May and the pressure is building on those hoping to take part.

Night 10 was a week of upsets and a third Nightly win for Jonny Clayton should be enough for the current Premier League leader to feel pretty confident he will be one of the final four standing.

Luke Littler and Gerwyn Price both failed to add to the points already achieved, but at 21 and 19 points respectively, they probably need to avoid Quarter Final defeats in half of the next six weeks and that should be enough to progress to the Semi Final. They are due to face off on Night 10 in Rotterdam, but there will be no sense of panic as far as the player losing a second consecutive Quarter Final is concerned.

It was a strong week in Brighton for Michael van Gerwen, although he will be disappointed he was not able to close out the Nightly win having moved into a dominant position in the Final against Clayton. Three more points keeps him in 4th place though and van Gerwen is now 4 points clear of Gian van Veen in 5th place which means the pressure is certainly building on those hoping to chase a Play Off spot.

One of those now beginning to look like he is in a desperate position is the defending Champion.

Luke Humphries has not played poorly, but he has lost far too many matches he should have won and 11 points means he has a lot of work to do over the next few weeks- it has been a really poor campaign in terms of results with only one Final reached and Humphries having been beaten in his opening match in half of the Nights played, including on each of the last three weeks.

While not quite in 'must win' mode, Luke Humphries has to dig in being on the tougher half of the draw on Night 11 nad facing Luke Littler in the Quarter Final on Night 12.

If Luke Humphries still has some hope of pushing into the top four, the same can be said for Stephen Bunting who also has 11 points on the board, but he HAS to win his Quarter Final on the weaker side of the draw in Rotterdam, even if Bunting is set to face an improving Josh Rock.

Another European Tour event will be taking place in Germany this weekend, but some of those in the Premier League were involved in Players Championship tournaments earlier this week.

Challenges of getting to these European Tour events have been frustrating for some of the British and Irish players making their way onto the continent, but that should be less problematic from Rotterdam.

The two Lukes are not attending, but a good field is getting together at the European Darts Grand Prix ahead of this weekend's action.

Before that, the latest Premier League Night will have to be played and completed.

Luke Littler to win & most 180s v Gerwyn Price: After the criticism that was hurled his way following a controversial conclusion to his defeat against Gian van Veen, Luke Littler did not look at all interested in his Quarter Final defeat to Stephen Bunting last week.

He is a young man and mistakes will be made, but the PR team that should be supporting Littler has let him down and he is likely to receive an 'interesting' response in Rotterdam on Night 11.

There are times when the crowd can dictate the Luke Littler mood, but he should be focused on this Quarter Final as he looks to maintain the current edge over Gerwyn Price.

The Welshman has been playing like the second best player in the world through 2026, but he has been a little under the weather earlier this week and that could be an issue in this match. Even at full health, Gerwyn Price has found a way to come up a little short when facing Luke Littler and all four Premier League defeats have been in competitive matches.

It is the Night 7 Final defeat that will particularly sting as Gerwyn Price failed to convert a 5-0 lead in a race to six Legs, but he will be happy with his overall form in 2026.

However, if Price is not yet fully recovered, he could come up a touch short again and Luke Littler's power scoring has seen him complete this Match Double in all four Premier League wins over The Ice Man.

Luke Humphries to win & most 180s v Gian van Veen: Dropping down to 7th place in the Premier League standings has put Luke Humphries under immense pressure to find a string of positive results over the next month.

Three Quarter Final losses in a row will have dented some of the confidence, while Luke Humphries had a couple of mixed days in Players Championship action earlier this week.

This looks a seriously tough test for the World Number 2, at least from a mental point of view, with Night 11 of the Premier League being played in Rotterdam.

Both Dutch players taking part in the Premier League will receive huge support and it is Gian van Veen going out first for this Quarter Final.

Four matches between the players in 2026 have been split with two wins apiece, while they are 1-1 in the Premier League.

However, there is a lot on the line in this Quarter Final with the two points so important to the chances of one of these players to start getting closer to the top four positions.

Gian van Veen did get to the Final of a Premier League Night a couple of weeks ago, but his overall recent form has not been the best and that has to give Luke Humphries a huge amount of encouragement. The World Number 2 remains the bigger maximum hitter and he will need to find some early rhythm in this one to make sure he earns enough opportunities at the doubles to find a way into the Semi Final.

The home fans may not be best pleased by the result in this Quarter Final, but they may have more to celebrate soon afterwards.

Michael van Gerwen to win & both players over 1.5 180s v Jonny Clayton: He may still be wondering how he was beaten in the Night 10 Final, but the three points earned has put Michael van Gerwen in a strong position in the standings.

More work has yet to be done if the Dutchman is going to return to the Play Offs, but he can snap this losing run against Jonny Clayton.

Credit has to be given to the new Premier League leader for a third Nightly win and the battling display from Jonny Clayton to recover from 2-5 behind to win the Final can only give him further confidence. There has been little wrong with the level of performance produced so far in 2026 and Clayton continues to hit plenty of maximums and show strong doubling when it really matters.

Ending a run of early losses will have been a boost for Clayton, but Michael van Gerwen can use the home crowd to continue picking off the points.

Jonny Clayton put a few wins together across a couple of Players Championship tournaments earlier in the week, but Michael van Gerwen will have been preparing for Rotterdam and can edge past the League leader in what should be another quality Quarter Final.

Josh Rock most 180s v Stephen Bunting: Winning Premier League matches three weeks in a row means Josh Rock has closed on 7th placed Luke Humphries, but he has not been able to string the wins together in each of those Nights.

He has long known that he likely needs to win at least three Premier League Nights if he is going to have any hope of making the final four, but the positive for Josh Rock is that fans are seeing the kind of level he can produce.

The averages are improving, but most notable is the maximum hitting which had deserted Rock earlier this season.

He goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite to progress, but Stephen Bunting will haveb something to say about that having put together a better overall Premier League record compared with last year. There is still a real hope for Bunting fans that their man can reach the Semi Final at the end of May, but he is another who just needs to find some consistency and especially having landed in the 'weaker' half of the draw on Night 11.

Stephen Bunting may win, but Josh Rock's recent maximum hitting has been very improving all of the time- despite playing fewer matches than this opponent, Josh Rock has been peppering the treble 20 bed and now has just one fewer maximum than Stephen Bunting.

All of the pressure is on Bunting and that may allow Josh Rock to continue to show the fans what he is all about and why he was selected for the Premier League in the first place.

MY PICKS: Luke Littler to Win & Most 180s @ 2.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Luke Humphries to Win & Most 180s @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michael van Gerwen to Win & Both Players Over 1.5 180s @ 2.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Josh Rock Most Maximums @ 2.10 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 47-68, - 12.83 Units (112 Units Staked, - 11.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2026 (Friday 13th February)

The business end of the current tournaments has come around with the Quarter Final matches scheduled at the three ATP events, while the WTA Doha event has reached the Semi Final.

It has been an inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks, but there is still an opportunity to finish with some strong form and to add some positive numbers to the season total.

Any selections from the tournaments in Dallas and Buenos Aires will be added to this thread once assessed after the markets have been fully formed.

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: After dropping the first set in her Quarter Final match against Iga Swiatek, Maria Sakkari was a significant underdog to progress.

Not only is the 30 year old dropping down the World Rankings, but Swiatek had not been beaten in her previous 109 WTA 1000 level matches after taking the opening set.

The World Number 52 has had to spend two and a half hours on the court in the Quarter Final, but that victory will be pushing Maria Sakkari back up towards the top 30 in the World Rankings. She will have taken a lot of confidence from the win over the top Seed in Doha and Maria Sakkari has put together four good wins in the tournament to move into the Semi Final.

After a decline in 2025, Sakkari will be feeling much better about her level of performance in the early events in 2026 and she will certainly feel she has the tennis to give Karolina Muchova plenty to think about.

One mid-match withdrawal aside, Karolina Muchova has eased through the draw and her win over Anna Kalinskaya in the Quarter Final continues her fine form.

She has faced a much more manageable part of the draw compared with Maria Sakkari who has two top ten wins on the board.

However, Karolina Muchova has been playing at a higher level on the hard courts over the last twelve months and she has been winning a lot of tennis matches on the surface since the beginning of January.

With the upsets that have taken place in the tournament, Karolina Muchova will feel there is a big opportunity for her to win the title here, while that may be good enough to earn her a return to the top ten herself.

Both players have been backing up the serve very effectively here in Doha, but it is Karolina Muchova who has been getting slightly more out of that shot. It is the World Number 19 who has also been the slightly more effective return player and that could show up in this latest meeting between the two veterans of the Tour.

They have not faced one another since August 2023 when Karolina Muchova beat Maria Sakkari on the hard courts of Cincinnati, but it was a match that went the distance. Back then Maria Sakkari was the higher Ranked player and it may be tough for her to bridge the gap, especially having put in so much physical and mental effort to win the Quarter Final on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Karolina Muchova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 8-7, + 0.23 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 8th February)

Big titles are going to be won this weekend beginning with the event in Abu Dhabi on Saturday and ending with the other tournaments, including Rotterdam, on Sunday.

Qualifiers have already begun for the WTA Doha tournament, which is the first big WTA 1000 event to be played in the Middle East this month, while the first of the Golden Swing events is played on the ATP Tour in Argentina.

Friday was a disappointment for the Tennis Picks with the sole selection going down in three competitive sets, but it has still been a solid enough week and finishing with a flourish is the challenge to end strong.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v Mattia Bellucci: Italian tennis has been thriving over the last couple of years and Mattia Bellucci has already secured a new career high World Ranking thanks to his run to the Rotterdam Semi Final. Another upset would see Bellucci enter the top 60 of the World Rankings and wins over Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have given the young player a huge amount of confidence.

Credit has to be given to Mattia Bellucci for playing the clutch moments as well as he has, particularly when he has been put under pressure on his own serve.

In the last two matches against Medvedev and Tsitsipas, Mattia Bellucci has faced 16 Break Points and he has managed to save 15 of those to earn the upsets over two players Ranked inside the top 12.

The lefty serve is traditionally one that orthodox players have struggled to deal with and that has been the case in 2025 with Bellucci managing to hold 90% of his service games played. That number is up at 95% for the tournament here in Rotterdam, although Mattia Bellucci is going to know that the challenge presented by Alex De Minaur on the return is another tough one to deal with.

Strong runs in Rotterdam have become a part of Alex De Minaur's early season form and that is the case again in 2025 with three very strong wins on the board. The draw has opened up for the Australian, but Alex De Minaur has taken advantage and he has been a dominant winner in all three matches.

He has served as well as Mattia Bellucci, but the edge for De Minaur is how well he has been returning and he is capable of putting the Italian under pressure by making sure he gets his teeth into rallies.

You cannot overlook how well Bellucci has handled the pressure against big names already this week, but he will need to keep that going and someone like Alex De Minaur is going to test him mentally and physically. As mentioned earlier this week, De Minaur has been very good when playing those he is expected to beat and the World Number 8 will begin next week higher than Novak Djokovic in the World Rankings with a win in this Semi Final.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but Alex De Minaur has been playing really well this week and wearing opponents down and he can do the same with Mattia Bellucci.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.54 Units (5 Units Staked, + 10.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 6th February)

The tournaments that are played in the Middle East tend to be concluded on Saturday and so we are already at the Quarter Final stage in Abu Dhabi, while the Second Round is completed in Rotterdam on Thursday.

For the second day in a row, there is one selection from each event in what has been a considered return to the Tennis Picks following the solid returns from the Australian Open.

Bigger events are coming up through the remainder of the month, which may offer up more selections, but we will see how that pans out when the tournaments come around and the only focus for now is on the Picks that are being made.

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The return to the Tour after becoming a mother could not have gone much better for Belinda Bencic and she taking full advantage of playing under a Protected Ranking or a Wild Card.

Last month she was able to surprisingly reach the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before losing to a top player in Coco Gauff and that effectively halved her World Ranking.

This week she entered the tournament in Abu Dhabi as the World Number 157, but two wins over top 52 Ranked opponents has helped Belinda Bencic reach the Quarter Final and her return continues to pick up serious momentum.

Next up is Marketa Vondrousova, who has also won two matches here and who also would have entered the Abu Dhabi tournament with something to prove.

Injury meant the World Number 37 was not able to play at the Australian Open, but Marketa Vondrousova has won all four sets played in this tournament and wins over Emma Raducanu and Yulia Putintseva have to be respected. Winning in the manner she has only makes Vondrousova more dangerous and any player that has a Grand Slam in the trophy cabinet can put together the tennis to win events like this.

The run has been surprising considering an injury suffered last month in Adelaide was enough to keep Marketa Vondrousova from attempting to play in the opening Grand Slam of 2025. The fact is that she had also missed all events in 2024 following an early exit as the defending Champion at Wimbledon, and both players will have something to prove.

Matches between these players have been competitive in the past, although this is the first time Belinda Bencic and Marketa Vondrousova are facing off since 2021 when they met twice in a short space of time at the Tokyo Olympics and Cincinnati Masters.

Both of those matches were won by Belinda Bencic and she does look the more likely winner of this Quarter Final on the form displayed over the last few weeks.

The first serve is going to be important for both players, but Bencic has looked a little more capable of protecting the second serve and that could prove to be the difference in a very close match. One concern for both is the amount of tennis being played in a short space of time having spent so much time away from the Tour, but Belinda Bencic has been playing with the confidence of a solid Australian Open behind her and she can edge out Marketa Vondrousova into the Abu Dhabi Semi Final ahead of big events in Doha and Dubai.

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Tallon Griekspoor: After watching Paula Badosa make such a big impact at the Australian Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to take some inspiration into turning his own form around.

The First Round loss in Melbourne would have really stung and Stefanos Tsitsipas has fallen out of the top ten in the World Rankings, while he also had a difficult year on the hard courts in 2024.

Beating the World Number 138 in the First Round in Rotterdam might not be a match that will live long in the memory, but it could be key for Stefanos Tsitsipas to just have something to build upon in a busy six weeks before the Tour moves onto the clay court part of the season.

This Second Round match is going to be much tougher when going up against Tallon Griekspoor, who is going to be backed by the home fans and who has enjoyed his recent visits to Rotterdam. Only Jannik Sinner has found a way to stop the Griekspoor runs in the last couple of seasons, but the World Number 1 is not involved this week and the win over Matteo Berrettini showed how effective the World Number 43 can be on an indoor hard court.

His serve can be a huge weapon on the indoor courts and that was the key for Tallon Griekspoor to just get the better of Matteo Berrettini, although the Italian will be frustrated by his defeat.

One big issue that Tallon Griekspoor has is getting enough out of the return, but he will be confident in his ability to win matches when getting into tie-breakers and hoping the scoreboard pressure from his own serving can crack an opponent.

This has to be a concern for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has not been serving as well as he can, but who did put a strong display on the board in his First Round win.

He will have the mental edge having crushed Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets as the Australian Open two years ago and it was a match where Stefanos Tsitsipas produced the much stronger serving. That will be the challenge for him again and this is expected to be competitive in front of Tallon Griespoor's fans, but Stefanos Tsitsipas can find a way to edge past the home hope.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.17 Units (2 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 5th February)

The sporting world never slows down and it is Simona Halep who has become the latest former Grand Slam Champion that has announced her retirement from tennis.

As the Romanian told the home fans, she has achieved all that she set out to do and winning the French Open and Wimbledon and also earning the World Number 1 Ranking and Simona Halep has to be credited for the career she has put together.

Injury has perhaps hastened the exit from the sport, but Halep sounded pretty happy about her decision and that is all any player can do when moving onto the next stage of their career.

The tournaments being played this week continue on Wednesday and there are a couple of selections from the events in Abu Dhabi and Rotterdam.

Alex De Minaur got the week off to a winning start, but hopefully that can be backed up with a couple more winners to just keep things ticking over.

Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: Reaching the Quarter Final in Adelaide and following up with a Fourth Round run at the Australian Open means World Number 11 Daria Kasatkina has made a positive start to the season.

Twelve months ago, Daria Kasatkina reached the Final here in Abu Dhabi before a couple of disappointing early exits in Doha and Dubai and this is a month where she will be looking to move back into the top ten of the World Rankings.

An administrative error has led to some headlines that Daria Kasatkina would have preferred to avoid- her name was placed alongside the Spanish flag during the draw ceremony and that led to some believing Kasatkina may have switched allegiance from Russia to Spain, which has since been denied and an apology issued to the player.

It was already going to be difficult for Kasatkina to return home and this has not really helped at all, so it will be a challenge for the player to focus on her tennis.

The hope has to be that Daria Kasatkina will benefit from this match taking place in the middle of the week and a few days after the draw ceremony had been run. Her performances on the hard courts this season and over the last twelve months makes Daria Kasatkina a solid performer on the surface and she will be expecting to get the better of Ashlyn Krueger.

The 20 year old American is an improving player on the Tour and reached a new career high World Ranking at the end of last month.

A tough three set win in the First Round will have given Ashlyn Krueger a boost and she has reached the Quarter Final in both Brisbane and Adelaide before losing early at the Australian Open. The draw was a tough one in Melbourne against Ajla Tomljanovic who had the fans behind her, and the next step for Ashlyn Krueger in her development is to find more successes when facing the better players on the Tour.

Over the last twelve months, the American has an 8-12 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents, and the key will be improving the returning aspect of her tennis in those matches.

She will feel she can get her teeth into the Daria Kasatkina service games, but this is a test for Ashlyn Krueger having lost to this opponent in the Second Round in Abu Dhabi last year. In that match it was Daria Kasatkina who took her chances when the Break Points were earned and her hard court performances over the last month do give the higher Ranked player an edge.

Wins over Marta Kostyuk and Paula Badosa last month in Adelaide means Krueger deserves to be given a lot of respect and especially having had a win under her belt here in Abu Dhabi.

However, Daria Kasatkina may still have an edge on the hard courts between these players and the World Number 11 can win this Second Round match and put the controversy from earlier in the week behind her.

Jiri Lehecka-Hubert Hurkacz over 23.5 games: A serious injury hampered Hubert Hurkacz through the second half of the 2024 season, even if he was somehow able to play through the pain.

He did reach the Quarter Final in Cincinnati, but Hubert Hurkacz played just five more matches in 2024 and the off-season was important for the World Number 21. Some solid performances were produced at the United Cup, but Hubert Hurkacz will be disappointed with the lack of an impact at the Australian Open before the First Round win here in Rotterdam.

This is going to be a very tough match for Hubert Hurkacz against an opponent who is close to cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings for the first time.

Last month Jiri Lehecka was able to win a title in Brisbane and he reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before being beaten by Novak Djokovic in a more competitive match than the straight sets defeat would have suggested. The current World Number 24 was an impressive opening winner in Rotterdam and Jiri Lehecka has really been making the best use out of his serve.

It has led to 92% of his service games being held and Jiri Lehecka will feel he can certainly keep on top of the Hubert Hurkacz return, which has been something of a weakness for the Polish player.

The 4-4 record on the hard courts is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz has only broken in 13% of return games played and that number is not going to be offering much encouragement against the serve he is facing in the Second Round on an indoor hard court.

This may mean there is some pressure on Hubert Hurkacz to serve well, although he has shown himself to be a player that can do that with 90% of service games held on this surface over the last month.

Jiri Lehecka and Hubert Hurkacz met here in Rotterdam twelve months ago and there was just a single break of serve in a three set match with both dominant behind that shot. More of the same can be expected when they meet again in the Second Round in 2025 and there is every chance that both of the opening two sets may need tie-breakers to separate the two.

Any need for a third set should see the total games line comfortably surpassed, but the serving power of Lehecka and Hurkacz could see this inflated line beaten even in a straight sets win for either player.

MY PICKS: Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jiri Lehecka-Hubert Hurkacz Over 23.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 0.83 Units (1 Unit Staked, + 83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 4th February)

The first Grand Slam is in the books and there would have been plenty of people who would have backed Jannik Sinner to retain the title he won in Melbourne in 2024.

The World Number 1 underlined his position as the top hard court player after picking up a third straight Grand Slam on that surface and he is now enjoying some time away from the court having withdrawn from the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam.

He is expected to return later in the month when the Tour moves into the Middle East where a couple of big ATP tournaments are played in and around the WTA events.

Once again it was the women's event that created the bigger upset at the last Grand Slam with Madison Keys winning a Major for the first time in her career.

All credit has to be given to any player that can beat the top two players in the Rankings in consecutive matches as Madison Keys did and the American has to also be credited for being able to hold herself together as well as she did in the Semi Final and Final against Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka respectively.

Can Madison Keys kick on and win more big tournaments? It isn't beyond her talent, but inconsistency has been a feature of her career and Keys is also going to be playing with a bigger target on her back, which has been tough for first time Champions to deal with in the recent past.

All of the big names are heading to the WTA 1000 events in Doha and Dubai, which begin next week, although Madison Keys has decided to withdraw from the first of those events through a hamstring injury. That does increase the likelihood of Keys next being out on the court when the US hard court tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami are played next month.

There are a couple of big events being played this week and it is an important month on the Tennis Tour.

A decision was made to have a break after the Australian Open, if only to reset and in a week where Davis Cup and smaller events were taking place.

The 2025 Australian Open was night and day compared with the 2024 results and having a positive foundation to build upon is clearly a much better position to be in compared with twelve months ago.

It may not be a week in which Tennis Picks are made every day, especially with my tighter margins used at the Australian Open, but there is a lot of players out on the courts and plenty of matches to get through.

Of course it is most important to put some winners together and it is important to build on the performance from the Slam in Melbourne.

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v David Goffin: The home Grand Slam is always going to mean more to any player on the Tour and it was a very big moment for Alex De Minaur when he found his way into the Australian Open Quarter Final for the first time.

Despite that, the overall feeling out of the tournament may be one of disappointment after barely being able to lay a glove on Jannik Sinner in a very convincing defeat.

The run in Melbourne has pushed Alex De Minaur back into the top eight of the World Rankings, but the key for the Australian is to build on his performance. The Ranking has been built on the fact that Alex De Minaur tends to beat the players he should, but this is the first match since that Quarter Final defeat in front of his friends and family and we will get to find out how much that has affected the World Number 8.

Twelve months ago, Alex De Minaur was the Runner Up in Rotterdam having lost the Final against nemesis Jannik Sinner, but that run will at least mean he is returning to a favourable court.

First up is veteran David Goffin who is a former World Number 7, but at 34 years old is now outside the top 50 in the Rankings and who is having a tough opening to the 2025 season.

Four matches have been played by David Goffin this season and he has lost all of those, although the Belgian did at least win a set for the first time last week in Montpellier. The real concern for Goffin has to be the fact that all of the defeats have been against players Ranked lower than himself and now he has to face a top ten opponent who has been playing with a lot of confidence, even if the last time we saw him on the court was in a horribly one-sided defeat.

David Goffin is really struggling to protect his serve and someone like Alex De Minaur is going to make him play a lot- he is only holding 56% of service games in his four matches this year.

To make matters tougher, David Goffin has to overcome a 0-5 professional head to head record against Alex De Minaur, which includes losing ten of the eleven sets played. They actually met here in Rotterdam last year and De Minaur won very easily, while David Goffin has only held 50% of the service games played against the Australian in his career, which suggests he is going to have a hard time turning things around in 2025.

The Alex De Minaur serve is not a big weapon for him against the top players on the Tour, but over the last twelve months, he has held 85% of service games played on the hard courts when facing players Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

With the head to head in his favour, Alex De Minaur can grind down David Goffin in this First Round match and he can cover this relatively big spread. In their last three matches, David Goffin has won three, four and four games and two of those matches have been right here in Rotterdam where the higher Ranked player can find a way to cruise through to the next Round.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 27-14, + 15.40 Units (79 Units Staked, + 19.49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 6th)

The late finishes at the ATP events in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires has meant needing to wait for the Semi Final markets to be put together and that means I have had to wait to put my Semi Final Picks together.

The Final in Doha looks a good one on paper, but I can't really pick a winner between Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, two former multiple time Grand Slam Champions who have made a very strong start to 2021. That is particularly the case for Muguruza who had Match Points to beat Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, form that has been franked by the run Osaka had to the title in Melbourne.

After a slow start and some frustrations, the last two days have turned around the form on the selections and it has justified my belief that the system to identify Picks is not a major issue. Adjustments always need to be made and slight tweaks, but ultimately my feeling was that there was more bad luck than bad identification that was causing the start to the 2021 season.

Too many times the inches had just gone against those players I had picked, but it happens over the course of a long Tour and I think the key was to remain largely grounded. If Borna Coric had taken the multiple Break Points he had created in the second set against Kei Nishikori it could have been a clean sweep on Friday, but I am always happy when a positive outcome is seen at the end of the day.

As I have mentioned, the lack of time between the completion of the Quarter Final matches and the start of the Semi Final matches means I will not have full analysis written down below.

Instead you can see my selections for the day with the tournaments winding down before moving onto five new spots next week.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-16, - 0.66 Units (68 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 5th)

I won't deny that it has been another difficult week with some of the selections being bad ones, but some being afflicted by bad luck, although they add together to give us the same result either way.

At least Thursday proved to be a little better and gives me something to build upon going through the weekend and into the next set of tournaments that are going to begin on Monday. I will add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires Quarter Finals to this thread on Friday once the markets are out, but you can read my analysis of a couple of the selections below.

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: 2021 has started really well for Jessica Pegula and she is beginning to make a splash on the WTA Tour. The numbers last season were not bad at all, but this year there feels like another step in her development has been taken and her run through to the Semi Final in Doha has to be respected.

It comes after a good showing in Australia and Jessica Pegula came through the Qualifiers here despite the improvement in the World Ranking meaning she should be able to earn direct entry into these events going forward. A new career best Ranking is around the corner, but the American would love to earn that by winning the title here.

The layers are struggling to separate Pegula and Petra Kvitova and that has to be down to the manner in which the former has cruised through the draw. It may also take into account the tough Quarter Final Petra Kvitova had to get through when seeing off Anett Kontaveit in three sets and she is going to have to serve a lot better if she is going to win this match.

Petra Kvitova is very dangerous because she seems to have her eye in as far as the return of serve goes and I expect her to challenge Jessica Pegula much more than Karolina Pliskova was able to do in the Quarter Final. The last two opponents have not really been able to get after the Pegula serve as they would have liked, but it hasn't been the perfect weapon for the slight underdog in this match and I do think Petra Kvitova will edge the match.

They played a really close match at the US Open last September and the straight sets win for Petra Kvitova doesn't tell the whole story. The inches went her way to secure the win, but I think the Czech player will have enough from the return to edge this one too.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Spending a little over two hours on court won't be a major problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he won his Second Round match to move into Friday's Quarter Final. This looks another big hitting match in front of the Number 2 Seed in Rotterdam who is also the favourite to win the tournament now that Daniil Medvedev has exited the event.

He will need to do plenty of big hitting of his own if Tsitsipas is going to hold off Karen Khachanov who has won both his matches here relatively comfortably. The victory over Stan Wawrinka will have given Khachanov huge confidence, and he has yet to drop serve in the week on an indoor hard court that should suit his game.

Serving as well as he has seems to have opened up the return game and Karen Khachanov has been on his best form on that side of his game. However, you do have to wonder how much success he will have against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won 71% of his service points played in Rotterdam and held 89% of his service games played.

There is a slight concern that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been broken three times in the two wins so far this week, while he has not been returning as well his opponent, but he has enjoyed the head to head with Karen Khachanov.

Both players are capable of strong serving, but in the two wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Karen Khachanov there has been a significant edge to the Greek player when it comes to the return of serve. Their last meeting in October 2018 was a close one that barely went in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think he is the slightly better player at this stage of their career and I think that will show up here.

I expect both players to run through some of their service games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may find the inspiration to turn a set in his favour and I think he will work his way through to the Semi Final with a solid win.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-15, - 5.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 9.89% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 3rd)

Tuesday has been one of those days when an early night is needed- like many, it has been one of those days where you miss the life we led a year ago and enduring a third lockdown has been arguably more difficult than the first two.

In this thread I am placing the Tennis Picks from the ATP Rotterdam, WTA Doha and WTA Lyon matches that are scheduled to be played on Wednesday.

I will update the weekly record and and any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires tournament on the day when the schedule for the tournament has been released.

A strong start to the Tuesday Tennis Picks was replaced by a poor ending and it means I have yet to turn this week around. Hopefully that begins on Wednesday as the Second Round gets going at most tournaments and I have added three selections from the Buenos Aires tournament being played this week with those matches starting much later in the day compared with the other three events.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 16th)

It might have been a busy day on Friday around the four tournaments that are being played this week, but I could only find a couple of matches that I felt comfortable in.

That wasn't a bad decision as both Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils won their Quarter Final matches in Rotterdam without dropping a set and that continues what should be another winning week to put into the books. There are still two days of Tennis to be played to conclude the week and I have no intention of giving anything back after a strong week.

You can see the Picks from the matches scheduled for Saturday below.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: In the last couple of weeks Daniil Medvedev has been a very strong player to back and he has worked out for me with a number of winning selections behind the young Russian. This isn't only a two week hot streak as Medvedev has been in strong form throughout the first six weeks of the 2019 season which has seen him play in two Finals already and looking to make a third this week.

He was a dominant winner over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Quarter Final and Medvedev has deserved to make his way through the Rotterdam draw after winning the title in Sofia. Unlike some other players, Medvedev has not really had an easy path through the last couple of weeks which underlines how well he is playing.

The numbers continue to back that up as Medvedev is looking after serve effectively, while the returning numbers are very strong. In the last week Medvedev has been even stronger on the return than he has been in 2019 overall, and that makes it very dangerous for opponents to face Medvedev when he is seeing the ball like a beach ball at the moment.

So far in Rotterdam Medvedev has broken at just under 38% of the games he has been returning and that is very impressive on the indoor hard courts. Gael Monfils will feel he can challenge Medvedev with the way he has been serving this week, but the overall hold percentage is down to 81% compared with his 84% hold percentage for 2019 on the hard courts.

The Frenchman has responded with some very strong returning to make up for the service slips, but this is a step up from the last two Rounds. It is also the second time in two weeks that Monfils and Medvedev are playing each other and it was Medvedev who I picked to win their match in Sofia and I think he can frank that form as he did when beating Tsonga for the second time in 2019 on Friday.

Daniil Medvedev dominated the return of serve in Sofia and as well as Monfils is playing this week, Medvedev is playing a little better. I think he can use the returning powers he has produced for the season to get the better of Monfils in this one and I think he edges him out with a tough win here and I think Medvedev covers against Monfils again.

He is being asked to cover one more game than he was last week in Sofia, but Medvedev is playing well enough to do that.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: The two tournaments being played in the Middle East in Doha and Dubai on the WTA Tour do bring in some of the very best players on the Tour to these events. With that in mind the players who reach the Final at the these tournaments tend to have come through some tough matches and that is the case for Elise Mertens and Simona Halep who play each other for the title on Saturday.

Both players have had a couple of tough wins and both were forced to win a deciding set in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two matches Simona Halep had to invest more emotional exertions to turn her Semi Final against Elina Svitolina back in her favour having won the final five games in a row to narrowly edge out the Ukrainian.

Elise Mertens did drop the second set in her win over Angelique Kerber, but she won the final set 6-1. However the potential fatigue factor is balanced out by Halep having played the first Semi Final and the Romanian has dominated Mertens in their two previous matches, although both have come on Halep's favoured clay courts.

The feeling in this one is that both players are going to be heavily reliant on their strong returns of serve to put themselves in a position to win the title. Neither has a dominant serve and both Halep and Mertens have seen that side of their game being attacked and I do think the way the two players have been returning will see a number of break points in this one.

In this tournament the edge has to be given to Mertens for the way she has been returning, but she has been a little fortunate at times as opponents have not taken the chances they have created. She can't expect Halep to be that generous considering the former World Number 1 has won 47% of return points played this week and she has also dominated the Mertens serve by winning 57% of points against it in the two matches between these players.

Elise Mertens has been returning very well too which will give her a chance to cover this number of games in this Final. However I think the match up with Halep is yet to be one that Mertens enjoys and her overall hard court numbers have been a little better than average in the last couple of years.

This week still feels like an outlier in terms of her overall hard court ability and I think Halep can break down the Mertens game and cover this number too.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-7, + 15.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 34.39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 15th)

Thursday was not a brilliant day and the Picks are set for a losing day at the time of writing. I will update the weekly totals on Friday when I will also add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York Quarter Final matches as those markets will be put together during the night.

At least the markets in the WTA Doha and ATP Rotterdam tournaments have been set and you can read my selections from those events below.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: After a miserable start to the 2019 season there won't have been too many rushing to back Damir Dzumhur to put a strong run together at the ATP Rotterdam event. He has previously played well here, but the 0-3 start to the season on the hard courts and a First Round match against Australian Open Semi Finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas would have likely been where most would have expected Dzumhur's tournament to end.

Instead he has been able to work his way through a couple of matches and Dzumhur is in good form so far this week which suggests he can give Gael Monfils a real test. One of the keys to his performances this week has been how well Dzumhur has been able to get into return games in the conditions in Rotterdam and that is going to be important if he is going to upset Monfils.

That won't be easy as Monfils has also been playing well and has the kind of serve that can offer up a few more cheap points than Dzumhur's own serve can. While they won a similar percentage of points behind serve in this tournament, Monfils has held serve at a slightly better rate as that bigger serve also gives him a chance to get out of awkward spots facing break points with a little more effectiveness than Dzumhur.

Gael Monfils has been returning well in Rotterdam too and I do think he can get the better of Dzumhur simply because I am expecting the Frenchman to earn a few more break points over the course of the match. The hard work that Dzumhur puts into his tennis will mean he will be competitive, but he is going to have to be a lot better than when these players met at the Australian Open last month.

On that occasion Monfils held 90% of the service games he played compared with Dzumhur's 27% number. I would be very surprised if Dzumhur's form falls off a cliff in Rotterdam and he can barely hold serve in this Quarter Final, but I do think Monfils holds the aces in this match and he can win and cover the number.

Having a day of rest between matches should mean Monfils is fresh and ready to go this weekend in a bid to take home a big title.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Both Daniil Medvedev and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won titles on the indoor hard courts last week and they have used the momentum earned to put a couple of wins on the board in Rotterdam. Confidence can't be much higher for both players ahead of this match, but I think Medvedev has a chance to frank his win over Tsonga from earlier this season.

You can't take anything away from Tsonga having won the title in Montpellier and looking very comfortable around the court, but his run of wins have not exactly come against elite players on the Tour. The Frenchman has put together seven wins in a row but none of those wins have come against an opponent Ranked inside the top 30.

The serve has been a key to Tsonga's wins and he has yet to be broken in Rotterdam where he has had considerable success in previous visits to this tournament. However in this match he faces a young opponent whose return of serve has been the reason he has been able to produce some very strong wins throughout 2019 and also seen him challenge the likes of Kei Nishikori and Novak Djokovic on the hard courts.

It is the Medvedev return that has been important for him this week having won 45.5% of points against the opponent's serve and that despite facing two big serving players in Jeremy Chardy and Fernando Verdasco. The Russian has created at least ten break points in both matches played this week and he might be able to offer some resistance to Tsonga's big serve that the latter has not been faced with over the last ten days.

Daniil Medvedev has been serving very well throughout the first six weeks of the season and he has continued that here. All credit has to be given to Tsonga for his returning numbers in this tournament, but he is overachieving and maintaining a 33% break percentage against the Medvedev serve is very unlikely.

When they met in Brisbane in January Medvedev held 90% of his service games against Tsonga and had a lot of success returning on that day. I think this match will be closer than the 7-6, 6-2 win that Medvedev produced that day, but I think this is the toughest match Tsonga has played since the Australian Open and the Medvedev form can see him edge to the victory in this good looking Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-7, + 12.40 Units (42 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 13th)

The tournaments continue on Wednesday and we move into the Second Round for the majority of those, although some First Round matches have also got to be played.

Tuesday proved to be a good, but not a spectacular start to the week despite a very good start to the day. The later picks in Doha, New York and Buenos Aires were not so positive but overall you can never complain about a winning start to the week.

Wednesday is going to be another busy day with a huge amount of matches scheduled. I have a full Picks written out which you can read below, but I may have to add those from Buenos Aires and New York once the markets have been put together. A number of those matches are involving players who have had to win First Round matches on Tuesday and so the layers take a little time to get the prices out on the next matches set to go.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: A couple of strong weeks have been put into the books by Daniil Medvedev and Jeremy Chardy, although it was the former who added yet another title to his collection in his young career. Last week Medvedev was barely pushed in winning the title in Sofia and that has seen the organisers in Rotterdam give him a little more time to be ready for another indoor event.

Backing up titles are tough for even the very best players on the Tour and the short turnaround from winning in Sofia and then flying to Rotterdam and getting used to the new conditions is tough for Medvedev. You have to assume Chardy has been on the site for a few more days having been beaten in the Quarter Final in Montpellier last week, but that was a good showing from the veteran Frenchman and he has something to build upon as he looks to improve his Ranking to the point of being Seeded at the bigger events coming up in the months ahead.

The goal for Medvedev is bigger than that this season as he looks to push on and perhaps challenge for a place in the ATP Tour Finals. He is one of a number of young players looking to take the next step in their career, but Medvedev has arguably opened 2019 in the best form of the likes of Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov, even if it is Tsitsipas who has had the run that has made the most impact on the Tour when reaching the Australian Open Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev has been looking after his own serve incredibly well over the last six weeks on the hard courts and an almost 87% hold rate is a strong showing. However the reason Medvedev has reached two Finals and won a title is because of the way he has been returning and the Russian has managed to break serve in 31% of return games on the surface which is a really good number.

The returning side of his game has really improved over the last thirteen months and that makes Medvedev a tough out for anyone not Ranked in the top 10 at the moment. He gave Novak Djokovic plenty of things to think about in their match at the Australian Open and that percentage of games where he has broken serve is almost double what Jeremy Chardy has produced at 17%.

In the last year Chardy has found the return of serve a little difficult on the hard courts and it does put a lot of pressure on him to find his best with the ball in hand. So far he is holding at 85% on the season on this surface, but I think that number will drop over the weeks and months ahead and this is going to be a tough challenge for him if Medvedev is feeling fresh and seeing the ball as well as he has been so far in 2019.

Plus in this match Chardy is taking on one of the better players on the Tour and he has not exactly thrived in this spot on the hard courts. Since the start of the 2017 season Chardy has played fourteen matches against players Ranked in the top 20 on the hard courts and his record is 3-11. In those matches the Frenchman's hold percentage drops significantly to 70% and his break percentage is down to 12% and that is not going to cut it against an in-form Medvedev who has played some strong tennis on this surface.

Fatigue is a concern, but Medvedev should be ready to go on Wednesday after playing the Sofia Final on Sunday and I think he will have too much power on the return for Chardy to deal with. I expect Medvedev to make enough balls back in play to get into rallies and break down Chardy and I think he can cover the big looking number on his way to another win in 2019.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: The title win in Montpellier was an important one for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if only to give him a real boost in confidence on his return to the Tour after a long injury issue meant playing just six matches at the back end of the 2018 season after being away from the Tour since March.

It helped to bring his World Ranking back up to Number 140 and the next few months are going to be a good chance for Tsonga to start making a significant move up the Rankings. With no points to defend everything he earns goes to improving that Ranking, but the danger is that he won't be Seeded at some of the big events coming up and thus could end up playing the likes of Novak Djokovic very early in the draws as he did at the Australian Open.

The Frenchman is not ready to compete with the likes of Djokovic just yet, but he was in great form last week in Montpellier as he continues to play some of his best tennis in front of home supporters. This week Tsonga has used his Protected Ranking to enter the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam and this is a tournament he has enjoyed in the past having reached one Final and also winning the title here when last competing at the event in 2017.

Tsonga has had a few days to get ready for this tournament and he should be well rested having not really been pushed too hard in the Semi Final or Final in Montpellier. That will help as will as the booming serve which has helped Tsonga win 70% of the points behind that shot as well as holding serve at just under 88% of the time. Take away the loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and you can see how important the serve has been to Tsonga and also covers up some of the deficiencies when it comes to the return of serve.

It is an area that Italian Thomas Fabbiano will try and expose especially as he has been showing some decent serving numbers in 2019. Over the last twelve months Fabbiano has a strong record on the hard courts, but his overall numbers have been boosted by the Challenger and Qualifying events he has participated in.

He still needs to be respected when you think he is holding at around 80% over the last twelve months in main ATP matches on the hard courts, but the returning numbers have been slightly down on what Tsonga is able to produce. That could be the key to the match with Tsonga likely able to get a little more consistency out of his serve compared with Fabbiano and the pressure build up may just see the Italian crack at times.

Unlike Tsonga, Fabbiano is going to have to work hard to make sure he is looking after his service games and can't rely on the cheap points that Tsonga is able to pick up. It does leave him vulnerable is Tsonga is rattling through games and I think the favourite can be backed to cover a number I would not usually be comfortable backing Tsonga to do so.

This could be fairly tight in terms of the cover, but I do think if Tsonga looks after his own serve as he has been doing he should get the chances to do that. The Fabbiano serve will be similar to the likes of Radu Albot and Gilles Simon and both of those players were broken down by Tsonga in Montpellier last week and I will look for him to do the same to the Italian here.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The Second Round gets underway at the ATP Rotterdam tournament on Wednesday and it is Gael Monfils who will be playing on back to back days. He battled hard to get past David Goffin in the First Round and now the Frenchman will be favoured to beat Andreas Seppi in this match.

It has been a good start to 2019 for Monfils who is looking to get his World Ranking moving back in a positive direction. The run to the Semi Final in Sofia last week was important for Monfils and the character shown in the First Round suggests he is looking to back up that week with another strong showing in Rotterdam having reached the Final when he last played in the event.

The serve has been a big weapon for Monfils who is holding at 84% so far in 2019 but he will feel there is some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve. The percentage of return points won has remained pretty steady since 2017, but Monfils would love to up the break percentage from the current 25% mark he is operating at.

It won't be easy to do that on the hard courts over the course of 2019, but Monfils should have some success facing Andreas Seppi who is holding serve at below 80% on the hard courts so far this season. That is slightly down on his 2017 and 2018 numbers, but the veteran is surely going to take a step back down in level of performance too and this may be the start of that.

The Italian has been returning well enough from the small sample we have from the first six weeks of the season, but Seppi has to find a way to get into the Monfils service games in this Second Round match. He has just been a little inconsistent when it comes to return games over the last few weeks, but Seppi did battle through a difficult First Round match that could give him some confidence to take into the match.

This is actually the seventh time these players are facing one another, but the last of those was some time ago and I am not sure those head to head stats are that relevant. Andreas Seppi beat Gael Monfils when they last met on a hard court in 2012, but that is a long time ago now and I do think Seppi is not quite as good as he once was.

We should be expecting a competitive match between these two players, but it looks like Monfils has a slight edge when it comes to the serve and the return of serve and that should add up to a win for the Frenchman. As long as he is not feeling too tired from his exertions in beating David Goffin I think Monfils is going to be working into a position to beat Andreas Seppi and also cover this number in the victory.


Julia Goerges - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: Over the last couple of years Julia Goerges has begun to show some serious form on the hard courts and she is now one of the better players on this surface on the WTA Tour. The German is still capable of producing a really poor performance on any given day and her return game needs work but Goerges has a serve that gives her every chance of winning matches on the hard courts.

When that serve is firing Goerges can be very difficult to stay with and she showed that by saving all eight break points faced in her First Round win over Qualifier Alja Tomljanovic on Tuesday. The first serve is a particularly strong weapon for Julia Goerges and she is going to need to see that shot at its best if she is going to beat Alison Riske in the Second Round.

The American has been given a second chance to enter the draw after losing in the Qualifiers and earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot in the main draw. She took full advantage by winning her First Round match and Alison Riske is playing well enough in 2019 to believe she can challenge one of the top players on the WTA Tour.

Her return game has mainly been much better than the Goerges return game in 2019, but you can't ignore the kind of level of opponents both have played. When Alison Riske has been asked to step up and play a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts since January 2017 she has struggled to maintain those return numbers and that puts too much pressure on her to produce a big serving day.

In those matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, Riske is 3-8 but her service numbers and return numbers take a big hit. The latter drops from around a 43% of return points won to 39% when facing those better players and it is going to be a real test for her to get involved in the Goerges service games considering how the latter has been playing.

I can't ignore the Goerges numbers which sees her winning around 41% of return points on the hard courts and that means a good serving day from Riske will give her the chance of the upset. However I can see the pressure building up thanks to the Goerges serve and that may see Riske go for a little more to protect her own serve and also begun to be picked off as she heads towards the net to shorten points.

In their one previous match, which was also played on the hard courts, it was the Goerges serve that dominated and she was able to break Riske four times in that match in Miami in 2017. I expect Goerges to have the majority of break points in this one too and I think she can make her way through to the Quarter Final with a good looking win that sees her cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 2.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.38% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 18th)

I said in the Saturday thread for the Tennis Picks that this has been a good week already and that was underlined with two more winners yesterday.

The other Pick ended with a retirement after David Goffin suffered a really unfortunate injury in his Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov. An attempted volley ricocheted off the racquet and into Goffin's eye and it was not surprise that the Belgian player decided to pull out at that moment.

However both Petra Kvitova and Dominic Thiem returned as winners and it has made a strong week possible, one that I needed just to restore some belief in the numbers. To be fair the numbers have been great indicators, but I just hadn't had a lot of luck earlier in the 2018 season and at the end of the 2017 season and so this week is one that I feel I have deserved.

On Sunday the Finals of the four tournaments played this week will be played before we move on to five new tournaments on Monday.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: The new World Number 1 will be looking to underline his status in that position by winning the title in Rotterdam on Sunday and Roger Federer is a strong favourite to do that. He won't have things completely his own way against Grigor Dimitrov, but Federer is playing at a very high level at the moment and I am not sure 'Baby Fed' will be able to stay with him.

The service numbers have been impressive from both players, although Dimitrov was being put under a lot of pressure by David Goffin in the Semi Final before injury ended that match unexpectedly.

Dimitrov should have success behind his serve, but I think Federer's return numbers have been more impressive so far in 2018 and that is going to be the difference between these two players on Sunday.

Ultimately I would expect Federer to create a few more break point opportunities with his returns of serve proving to be a little more effective of the two players. I don't doubt Dimitrov will be able to cause a few problems of his own, but I think the Federer serve has been working very well and can get Federer out of a few tough spots.

Matches between Federer and Dimitrov can be close and the latter has shown he can raise his performances against the best players. However I think Federer may open the door for success with a late break in the first set and then go on from there to record a fairly routine win while covering this number of games.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-6, + 17.22 Units (44 Units Staked, + 39.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 17th)

The four tournaments that have been played this week come down to the business end on Saturday with the Semi Final matches in Buenos Aires, Doha, New York and Rotterdam all scheduled to be played.

One of those Semi Finals, at the time of writing, has already been concluded with Simona Halep pulling out of the tournament in Doha and leaving Garbine Muguruza to take her place in Sunday's Final.

The rest of the matches are still set to go and I am looking to put an exclamation mark at the end of the best week of the 2018 season so far.


Petra Kvitova v Caroline Wozniacki: The Semi Final that is still to be played in Doha looks a really good one on paper as both Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki have been in fine form.

Wozniacki is playing with the confidence of having won the Australian Open and that helped her through a very tough Quarter Final against Angelique Kerber. On the other hand, Kvitova has been in dominant form since her early exit in Melbourne by winning the title in St Petersburg and looking very strong in Doha to follow that up.

Both players have produced some very strong numbers in 2018 and both have been in good form which suggests this is going to be a very close match. However I do like Kvitova as the underdog in this one having beaten Wozniacki at the end of 2017 in Beijing, while she has the power to hit through Wozniacki.

The longer match played by Wozniacki on Friday may play a part too and I am going to back the underdog to come through with the win.

Kvitova's power and superior serving should make the difference in this match, although it would not surprise me if she needs three sets to finally see off Wozniacki.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v David Goffin: There is no denying how well David Goffin has been playing to open 2018, and he is well rested for this Semi Final having seen Tomas Berdych withdraw prior to their Quarter Final.

Even with the positive results, it is hard to ignore that Goffin never seems far away from a poorer performance which makes him vulnerable to be beaten. He is also facing an opponent in this Semi Final who has had his number and who beat him twice at the ATP Finals back in November.

Grigor Dimitrov has some decent wins in 2018, although the Bulgarian has not been anything like as dominant in his wins as Goffin has been. There is a real room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve, but Dimitrov has enjoyed this match up and I expect he will feel comfortable in it.

One question mark for Dimitrov is his sole loss to Goffin in nine previous professional matches came in Rotterdam twelve months ago. That could play a part mentally, but I think Dimitrov's wins over Goffin in London in the ATP Finals will be fresh in the mind and he can find a way to get past this opponent and move onto Sunday's Final.

It could be a close match that goes the distance, but I do like Dimitrov to find a way to cover this number of games in this win.


Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: I am adding this pick from Buenos Aires where the winner of this Semi Final will feel they are favourites to go on and win the title in Argentina.

Both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils have played well to get through to the final four, although the edge has to be given to Thiem for the more serene progress. That may not be a surprise as a I think he is one of the top clay courters in the world and arguably just behind Rafael Nadal when it comes to favouritism to win the French Open.

Thiem also holds a strong head to head with Monfils and I think he can show that again when they meet on Saturday.

The Frenchman has played well on the clay courts in his career, but I think his serve is not as effective as Thiem's and both players are very good returners. That means Thiem is likely to get through a few more service games without being put under immense pressure and that can play a huge part in his success in this Semi Final.

I imagine the match will be closely contested, but Thiem does hold the advantages and I will look for him to move through to the Sunday Final with a win and a cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-6, + 13.48 Units (40 Units Staked, + 33.70% Yield)