Tennis Picks 2026 (Sunday 15th February)

It was an inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks, but avoiding a big losing one is always important.

Karolina Muchova would have enjoyed the week much more than most as she picked up the WTA 1000 title in Doha and she will be looking to complete the Middle East double with the Dubai event beginning on Sunday.

There have been a couple of high-profile withdrawals from the next tournaments taking place, but in the main this looks like one where the top names are ready for one more big effort before resting and preparing for the Sunshine Double in the United States next month.

Sunday is usually a quieter day for the Tennis Picks with most tournaments concluding on the day, but that is not the case then the Middle East swing is in operation with Finals scheduled for Saturday.

This week we also have some big ATP 500 events taking place and so it could be one of the busier weeks for the Tennis Picks if matches fit the criteria being used for selections. 

Linda Noskova - 3.5 games v Ann Li: The swing through the Middle East takes in two WTA 1000 events and the second of those begins on Sunday in Dubai.

There are a few Byes littered through the draw, but World Number 12 Linda Noskova will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing run in Doha. She is Seeded low enough to have to begin in the First Round in Dubai, while the 21 year old will be looking to put together some momentum before the big Masters events in North America which are played through March to conclude the first half of the hard court season.

The faster surfaces have been more productive for Linda Noskova over the last twelve months and that will be a reason she will be a little disappointed with her early results.

Linda Noskova continues to serve with some authority, but she has been put under pressure to make sure enough first serves are put into play. That is partly down to the relatively weak returning numbers and that is going to be tested on what have normally been pretty quick hard courts.

Of course that will allow Noskova to get a little more out of the first serve, but her opponent, Ann Li, is going to be very confident of using the conditions to her own advantage.

Her own first serve has proved to be a strong weapon on the hard courts, but Ann Li is perhaps not averaging as many first serves landing as she would like. This has put plenty of pressure on her own second serve and return game and Ann Li has found herself coming up a little short at key moments.

She played well in Doha, which will also give her some confidence, but Ann Li was beaten in a match she would have been favoured to win.

Both players will be looking to contain the threat of the other with the serve, but it does look like Linda Noskova deserves to be given favouritism.

The loss in Doha will have been a blow, but Linda Noskova has been very solid when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 on the hard courts over the last twelve months. The numbers back that up, while Ann Li has struggled to impose her tennis on top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface throughout her career and that may be the case in this First Round match in the latest WTA 1000 tournament.

Liudmila Samsonova - 2.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: Both of these players are Ranked inside the top 30, but neither can really point to much positive form to open the 2026 season.

Out of the two, Liudmila Samsonova has reached a couple of Quarter Finals, including in Abu Dhabi earlier this month, but she did suffer an opening Round defeat in Doha.

That is still considerably stronger form than Leylah Fernandez who has lost five of the six hard court matches played this season and all of those losses have been in matches in which she entered as the higher Ranked player. The Canadian is a former US Open Finalist, but Fernandez has struggled to put the consistency together and she has a record that is only just over 0.500 over the last twelve months to underline the statement.

A real concern for Fernandez is that she has struggled to be competitive- her sole win in 2026 has been against the World Number 220, and all of her defeats have been in straight sets.

The serve has been vulnerable, but it is the return game which has really been troubling Leylah Fernandez and she may struggle to get a lot of joy out of the Samsonova serve.

In the three previous matches against one another, it is Liudmila Samsonova who has won twice, but the numbers have suggested she has been the better player each time. The two hard court matches have been split with a win apiece, but the edge has to be with Samsonova against an out of sorts Leylah Fernandez.

MY PICKS: Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Liudmila Samsonova - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 47-35, + 13.16 Units (148 Units Staked, + 8.89% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Jack Catterall vs Arnold Barboza Jr (Saturday 15th February)

There was a card in the United States on Friday and that is the longer thread for the Boxing Picks this week and can be read here.

The idea was to split the cards into two threads simply because the events are being run on separate nights and may make for easier reading.

Jack Catterall vs Arnold Barboza Jr

The interim WBO World Title is on the line as both Jack Catterall and Arnold Barboza Jr head into their thirty-second professional fight of their respective careers.

Barring a controversial Decision, both Jack Catterall and Arnold Barboza Jr would have the same 31-0 record, but the former was on the wrong end of the judges' scorecards in his first fight with Josh Taylor.

In another reality, Jack Catterall is not only a World Champion, but an Undisputed World Champion in the Light-Welterweight Division and he may even have moved up into the Welterweight Division to chase bigger fights.

Instead he is hoping that his run of four wins in a row since the loss to Taylor can be extended and the interim World Title is around his waist at the end of the night. There is every chance that is going to be upgraded sooner than later with the expectation being that full Champion, Teofimo Lopez, will not want to fight the winner of this bout as mandated.

Arnold Barboza Jr has perhaps been carefully building up his level of competition, and for some it will feel like the career has been managed too carefully.

He is 33 years old now and Barboza Jr needs to get going if he is going to achieve all he wants in the sport.

After a surprising struggle to beat Sean McComb, Arnold Barboza Jr earned his most impressive win last time out when getting the better of Jose Carlos Ramirez and it did feel he was a more comfortable winner than the cards may have indicated.

This is the first time Arnold Barboza Jr is competing in a Twelve Round fight, which is not the case for Jack Catterall, and the home fighter may just use that experience to win what should be a competitive fight through the Championship Rounds.

With the fans behind him, Jack Catterall can use his Southpaw stance to just make things awkward for Arnold Barboza Jr, who perhaps does not have the best footwork either. The British fighter may also hold the slight edge when it comes to the power and Jack Catterall has shown that he is fundamentally sound and able to find a way to put the winning Rounds together.

His win over Regis Prograis showed off some of the character, grit and determination with which Jack Catterall is fuelling his career and the feeling is that he is going to be able to just outwork Arnold Barboza Jr for a tough win on the cards.

There are some decent undercard fights to support the main event.

Pat McCormack is hoping to put some momentum behind his career as he steps up to face veteran Robbie Davies Jr in a crossroads fight for both.

The younger, fresher fighter can carry can his power and he may just force Davies Jr out of there, although the veteran has the experience and will to at least push Pat McCormack through his paces and get through a few Rounds.

A real rivaly fight between Reece Bellotti and Michael Gomez Jr has been built up after the latter pulled out of their original meeting at the eleventh hour.

Reece Bellotti felt Gomez Jr had 'swallowed it', but the latter will have home support and deserves a lot of respect.

However, the defending British and Commonwealth Champion has become a much more well rounded fighter as he has gotten older and Reece Bellotti may just be able to defend his Belts in a tight contest.

Zelfa Barrett is back after ten months and he is going to be well supported by the home fans- he is another who needs to just step up and build momentum, especially still being Ranked pretty highly with the IBF.

He is also facing a veteran that has perhaps seen his best days and Jezza Dickens has been Stopped in four of the five defeats suffered.

MY PICKS: Jack Catterall to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Pat McCormack to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Reece Bellotti to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Zelfa Barrett to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 4-15, - 12.85 Units (25 Units Staked, - 51.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th February)

It has been a disappointing end to the week for the Tennis Picks and that was not helped with one losing selection and one player withdrawing after falling behind to the other selection made.

These things happen in a long season, but it does not lessen the frustration considering the start that was made to the week.

We still have time to turn things around across the weekend, although it does depend on the right spreads/prices being set by the layers as far as the selection criteria goes.

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There were plenty of big names involved in the tournament in Doha this week, which is no surprise as a WTA 1000 event, but the Final has to be considered an unexpected one.

Both Jelena Ostapenko and Amanda Anisimova have done very well to get to the Final and there is plenty on the line other than the title for the two players.

If Amanda Anisimova is able to win the title on Saturday, she will crack the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time and the potential that many believed the American holds will perhaps begin to turn into on-court success. There is no doubting the talent, and all of Anisimova's wins in Doha have been against players Ranked at least 30.

This deserves respect and Amanda Anisimova has served with some consistency and that has allowed her to attack the return and put herself in strong positions in matches. Her performances here in Doha have also backed up a solid start to the 2025 season with big events in Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami to be played on the hard courts before the clay court season gets underway.

All of the matches won and the level produced will give Amanda Anisimova a lot of confidence, but there is no doubting the same can be said for Jelena Ostapenko, who is a player that can be very difficult to stop once she gets on a roll like she has this week.

The fiery Latvian is a former Grand Slam Champion and reached as high as World Number, but only winning the title here on Saturday will push Jelena Ostapenko back into the top 20. She had not won a match before arriving in Doha, but you would not have guessed that having won every set at the tournament.

Making it more impressive is the fact that only two sets have seen Jelena Ostapenko give up more than three games.

You could accept that if Jelena Ostapenko had been given a kind draw, but she has beaten two of the top four and Ons Jabeur in the last three matches and none of those players have won more than four games against the former French Open Champion.

Jelena Ostapenko has crushed World Number 4 Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2 and did the exact same to Ons Jabeur in the Quarter Final.

Perhaps most impressive is beating Iga Swiatek, the World Number 2, 6-3, 6-1 in the Semi Final and Jelena Ostapenko is making hay behind the first serve. Backing that up is the aggressive mentality on the return, which has seen Ostapenko win 55% of return points played in Doha and you have to give her the edge in the Final.

These two players actually met here in 2022 and it was Jelena Ostapenko who came through a very competitive match that needed all three sets to separate her from Amanda Anisimova.

It was the Jelena Ostapenko first serve that might have been the key shot in that Second Round match three years ago and the feeling is that it could just see the Final edge towards the Latvian too.

MY PICKS: Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 1.43 Units (7 Units Staked, - 20.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 15th February)

The news about Rafael Nadal has to be considered a disappointment after he confirmed that he would not be healthy enough to play in Doha as he was hoping.

There is still a desire to head to Indian Wells as he takes good care of his body and makes sure he is ready to compete when the clay court season rolls around in April. However, it only strengthens the feeling that this may be his last year on the Tour and that really begin the passing of the torch to the next generation, if we have not already begun to see that happening.

Finding another Rafael Nadal is going to be as difficult as finding another Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic, but the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz can take the Tour forward. Both are already Grand Slam Champions and the hope amongst fans is that they can push each other to great heights in the years ahead.

The WTA tournament in Doha has reached the Quarter Final Round and the three ATP tournaments are effectively a day behind with their own Quarter Final line up completed on Thursday and played on Friday.

Like many Middle East tournaments, the Finals are played on Saturday rather than Sunday and that is the case in Doha and expected to be the case in Dubai when the WTA Tour pitches up there next.

The ATP tournament in Doha will begin next week before the Dubai tournament is next up, although the names involved are perhaps not the elite list we have come to expect.

Below are the selections from the Quarter Final matches to be played in Doha- nothing in Rotterdam appealed as the Second Round is concluded and any selections from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach from the Second Round matches to be played there on Thursday will be added on the day.

Danielle Collins - 1.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: A tough First Round win in the Qualifiers aside, Danielle Collins has continued to play at a high level in Doha and she has four matches in a row in straight sets to reach the Quarter Final.

Despite the fast court conditions at the tournament, Danielle Collins will know she needs to be a bit more effective behind serve if she is going to move into the final four.

No one should be too concerned about the performances behind the first serve, but Collins will not want to allow Anastasia Pavyluchenkova to have too many looks at the second serve. The aggressive American has been confident on the return in the tournament and it will be a match that Collins can feel she can win as long as she serves as she can.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova snapped a losing run to Marketa Vondrousova in the Third Round and will be looking to do the same in this Quarter Final. All three previous matches have ended in defeat against Danielle Collins and the Russian has not been effective enough on the return of serve.

She will go for her big shots and that should mean some success for Pavlyuchenkova when she is able to set her feet, but the aggression of Danielle Collins means there will be plenty of pace coming her way too.

The Russian player has been very good on the return in this tournament, but her own serve has not been working as well as it could and it is Danielle Collins who can progress.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: She may have benefited from a walkover in the Third Round, but Naomi Osaka has won back to back matches in Doha prior to that. This is the first time she has managed to do that in a hard court tournament since the Miami Masters back in March 2022, although of course Naomi Osaka has had a year out from competitive tennis.

One of the few matches played in 2024 was against Karolina Pliskova and Naomi Osaka was beaten in a very tight, competitive match.

She will be hoping to turn that result around as she did against Caroline Garcia and there has to be an accumulated fatigue in play working against Pliskova.

After winning the title in Cluj on Sunday, Karolina Pliskova was playing in Doha on Monday and she has won a match on each of the last three days to reach another Quarter Final. Confidence will have been given a real boost by the fight and quality of tennis she has produced, but Karolina Pliskova has spent over six hours on the court and has had to come from a set down twice.

She should have been beaten in the Third Round, but Linda Noskova struggled to put away her compatriot when serving for the match. That can happen to younger players trying to beat a veteran from the same country, but Karolina Pliskova is facing someone who is motivated to show they belong back with the elite on the WTA Tour and someone who will want to earn a measure of revenge for a tight defeat.

Take nothing away from the run Karolina Pliskova is on, but it is tough to sustain the wins when playing on the tight margins. The second serve is likely going to be attacked by Naomi Osaka and it may be tough for Pliskova to really get a good feeling in the return.

It could be tight again with Osaka still getting up to speed, but she should be the physically fresher player and that may show up in this Quarter Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: The Australian Open ended a little prematurely as far as Carlos Alcaraz would be concerned, but he has decided to take in the South American Golden Swing for a second year in a row.

He had a very successful time in South America twelve months ago and Carlos Alcaraz will be defending his title in Buenos Aires.

The move from the hard courts to the clay courts should not be a massive issue for someone like Alcaraz, but he will have to deal with a home player in the Second Round. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won a Challenger title on the clay and is very much at home on the red dirt, while he has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in Buenos Aires.

This will mean Carabelli is well adjusted to the conditions and he will have to try and use that to his advantage against one of the best players on the Tour.

He has won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in this tournament, although the margins were slim, and it is a big ask for Camilo Ugo Carabelli to raise his level for long enough to beat someone like Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard is likely going to put the Carabelli serve under pressure throughout this Second Round match and he should have the qualities to find the breaks of serve to cover this relatively wide handicap mark.

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 games v Luciano Darderi: His toughest win in Cordoba was against Sebastian Baez, but Luciano Darderi was able to work his way past the World Number 30 and eventually won the title.

He earned a Special Entry into the Buenos Aires event and Darderi was a crushing winner in the First Round to keep the positive momentum going.

That title win last week has pushed Luciano Darderi into a new career high World Ranking mark and the confidence is clearly not going to be an issue for him.

Sebastian Baez will be playing with revenge on his mind- he beat Darderi in Cordoba in 2023 before losing in the Quarter Final last week. The First Round win was comfortable to earn a rematch with the Italian and Sebastian Baez will feel a stronger start should put him in a position to turn the result around.

The serve let him down last week, but Sebastian Baez should be the slightly fresher player in this Second Round match and he is capable of better than what he showed in the loss. Putting that together here and perhaps being a little more clinical on the Break Points will turn the result around and he can get the better of Luciano Darderi, even at this confident stage of his career.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 15th)

There are plenty of matches set to be played on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches at the five tournaments are scheduled to go onto the courts around the world.

I will be looking to add any selections from Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but for now I have selections from Doha, Dubai and Marseille which can be read below.

Corentin Moutet - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: The primetime evening session at the ATP Marseille tournament features French players on Tuesday, but the second match may be of more interest from a picks point of view.

That is the match featuring two of the younger ATP players from France after Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Gilles Simon have met prior to this First Round encounter. In this one Hugo Gaston and Corentin Moutet are facing one another and the poor form of the former has got to be a worry when they meet in Marseille.

Hugo Gaston has only won once in 2022, while the numbers have been really worrying. The left hander has only held 62% of the service games played on the hard courts so far in 2022 and that has placed a big burden on the returning aspect, something that has ultimately broken down the Hugo Gaston game.

He is not a bad return player though and that should give Hugo Gaston some chances to get into the Corentin Moutet serve considering the lower Ranked, but older, Frenchman can sometimes have issues holding on his serve. In 2022 it has been a different story for Corentin Moutet though who has held 84% of the service games played on the hard courts and that is where I think the difference will be made in this match.

Like his opponent, Corentin Moutet has actually returned pretty well, but his serve has been better protected than Hugo Gaston's and I think that will show up to separate the two players on the day. Corentin Moutet has the slightly superior return numbers too and I am going to look for him to produce the better tennis in this match which eventually sees him wear down and beat Hugo Gaston.

In matches between compatriots, there can be a pecking order when it comes to how players deal with one another on the court and I think the older Corentin Moutet will have an edge over Hugo Gaston overall. The latter may start turning his form around, but I think he will have to wait at least one more week to do that and Corentin Moutet can find the breaks of serve to win this one and cover the spread.

Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 games v Elias Ymer: There is a bright future ahead of Lorenzo Musetti, but the young Italian has yet to find the consistency he would like on the Tour. Plenty of new faces are beginning to make a real impact on the Tour led by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but Lorenzo Musetti will feel he has the tennis to challenge those players for the big titles in the years ahead.

A poor Australian summer would have hurt, but Lorenzo Musetti has reached the Quarter Final at the last two tournaments he has played. Some may feel it is a little surprising that the Italian has not decided to play in the events in South America rather than the indoor hard courts, but it may be a learning experience for a player that has been a little inconsistent on this surface.

The returning side of his game has been letting Lorenzo Musetti down, but he may have more joy against Elias Ymer who enters this tournament as a Lucky Loser. Those players can be dangerous having had a couple of matches in the conditions to become accustomed to how the court and the balls are playing, while Elias Ymer also reached the Quarter Final of a hard court tournament played in 2022.

Unlike his brother Mikael, Elias Ymer has yet to really find his feet on the full ATP Tour and remains well outside the top 100 of the World Rankings. Many felt he had the talent to produce more than we have seen and Elias Ymer has yet to crack the top 100, but he has beaten both players from inside the top 100 that he has faced so far this season.

Eiias Ymer may have surprised some with his two top 100 wins considering he was 1-8 in those matches on the hard courts in 2021. His return has been pretty decent in those matches, but Elias Ymer has a serve that can be attacked and that should give Lorenzo Musetti a chance to produce one of his better days in the office.

Last week Lorenzo Musetti actually beat Mikael Ymer in Rotterdam and I think the tennis he will be facing in this one will be similar, although Elias Ymer is not playing at the same kind of level as his brother.

It will be a tough test for the young Italian, but it is one that he can find a way of winning and I think he will be able to cover this spread too.

Taro Daniel + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: After meeting at the Australian Open, Taro Daniel and Andy Murray will face each other once again at the ATP Doha tournament being played this week. This First Round match could be quite interesting after Daniel upset the former World Number 1 at Melbourne Park, but the layers are not convinced there will be much chance of a repeat.

I think that underestimates Taro Daniel who had a very productive Australian summer, although he has not played any competitive tennis since losing in the Fourth Round at the first Grand Slam of the season. His numbers have been very productive behind serve and return in 2022, although the big question for someone like Taro Daniel is how long he can continue to produce at a level that he has not been able to sustain previously.

Taro Daniel has been serving really well, but winning 68% of points played behind that shot is a level that he is unlikely to keep performing at. However, Andy Murray has been a mixed bag in 2022 as he looks to find the tennis that took him to World Number 1 and it can be hard to know what kind of form he is going to bring to the court on a day to day basis.

At his peak, Andy Murray's return was a key part of the successes he was able to have on the Tour, but he hasn't always been able to defend around the court as he did at his best, That has allowed opponents to get on top of rallies and break down Andy Murray, while the British player is only holding 80% of service games played on the hard courts so far this season.

Andy Murray did reach the Final of a tournament in Sydney before the Australian Open begun, but his numbers have been disappointing since then. The service hold percentage has dropped to 72% in the four matches played after the Final in Sydney, and that has to offer Taro Daniel plenty of belief when he arrives on the court.

Their match at the Australian Open was closer than a straight sets win for Taro Daniel would suggest, but it may be a big ask for Andy Murray to turn the result and win by a wide enough margin to cover this spread. If Taro Daniel serves anything like he has been in 2022, I expect him to keep this match tight on the scoreboard and he can be backed with the games being given to him by the layers.

MY PICKS: Corentin Moutet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Taro Daniel + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (February 15th)

It is an extremely busy day at the Australian Open, but the last one of the Grand Slam tournament as the Singles draws are whittled down on the final stretch to finding the first two Champions of the 2021 season.

I should have a fuller thread for the Day 9 Picks as we will have the full Quarter Final line up in place by then and can have a look back through the Outright Selections and also the feeling of how the tournament will develop. A difficult Day 7 has just dropped some of the moment, but I am looking for better on Day 8 with the remaining Fourth Round matches to be played.

Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: It is hard to really understand what was going through Daniil Medvedev's mind in the Third Round as he suddenly lost what had seemingly been complete control of his match against Filip Krajinovic. Whatever the issue was, Medvedev's Coach had enough of some of the antics and it turned out the decision to walk out on the match was the best one as it refocused the Russian to win the final set decider without dropping a game.

At the end of the match there was no real concern about the actions of the Coach or the player, but Daniil Medvedev will largely just be glad to still have an opportunity in winning a maiden Grand Slam. However the bottom half of the draw looks fraught with danger now and the second favourite for the title is going to have to work hard to reach his second Grand Slam Final.

This is probably one of the better matches Daniil Medvedev could have asked for in the Fourth Round as he looks to make easier progress than he had in the Third Round. That isn't being disrespectful to Mackenzie McDonald who has done very well to reach the Fourth Round for the second time at Grand Slam level, although it is only the second time he has been beyond the Second Round in a major.

He did that at the 2018 Championships at Wimbledon and was beaten in four sets by Milos Raonic, but this is a different kind of test of the American. Mackenzie McDonald has beaten Borna Coric in the tournament, but his other two wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 80 in the World Rankings and McDonald showed little in the first two tournaments played in 2021 to believe this kind of run was going to be within him.

Like many players, Mackenzie McDonald has made good use of the quicker conditions with strong holding numbers, while he has impressed in terms of the return too. Both aspects of his game are likely to be severely tested by Daniil Medvedev though who has shown a consistency on the hard courts over the last eighteen to twenty-four months which could take him to a level that the World Number 192 is unable to reach.

These two did play out a competitive match at Indian Wells a couple of years ago, but Medvedev was able to take control after a tight first set in a straight sets win. The Daniil Medvedev serve was key to the outcome of that match and I think that is likely to be the case in Melbourne in this Fourth Round match too.

Mackenzie McDonald is talented and better than his World Ranking may suggest and he has challenged top 10 players he has faced on the hard courts, although more often than not he has ended on the losing side. I think he will give Daniil Medvedev things to think about in this Fourth Round match too, but the the higher Ranked player should be able to put a run of games together at some point that takes the match away from the American.

The Daniil Medvedev return is thriving in the conditions and he has broken in 40% of return games played in the tournament. He has already broken nineteen times in the tournament and I think he will be able to add enough to that tally to get into a position to cover this handicap in a match that may be more competitive than the final scoreline will suggest.

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Fabio Fognini: These two players have been on the Tour for a long time and have come across each other plenty of times and not always seen eye to eye on things. Then again not many have played Fabio Fognini as many times as Rafael Nadal and not had some kind of falling out with the extremely talented Italian who has a tendency to talk his way into trouble.

We saw some of that in the Second Round in his win over compatriot Salvatore Caruso when the two players got into an argument at the end of the match, but Fognini also has plenty of talent which makes him very dangerous when at his best.

In somewhat of a surprise, this is only the third time these two will be meeting in a Grand Slam and both hold a win over the other. You should see plenty of action from Fabio Fognini's Grand Slam win over Rafael Nadal considering he came from 2-0 down in sets to beat him on the hard courts at the US Open in September 2015, but that is also the sole win in seven previous hard court matches between this pair.

It was a very close match at the US Open and Rafael Nadal will feel he blew it, but it has also focused him in matches against this rival. and he has won seven of eight matches against Fognini since then. On the hard courts they have met four times since September 2015 and Rafael Nadal has won all four with 90% of service games being held and breaking in just under 40% of return games played.

I am not sure how much the Nadal back issues are bothering him, but his numbers have been strong in this tournament and he has been competing at a higher level than Fabio Fognini. The latter had an impressive win over Alex De Minaur in the last Round which will give him some real confidence, but Rafael Nadal is producing the superior returning and you have to have more faith in his serve than the Fabio Fognini one on this surface.

This should be a good watch with the talent on the court and I expect to see some top shot-making on display. However the edge has to be with Rafael Nadal who has largely dominated Fabio Fognini when meeting him on a hard court and who has been playing the better tennis of the two in this tournament so far.

We may need four sets to separate them on the day, but Rafael Nadal has won four of the last six sets between them on the hard courts by either a 6-1 or 6-2 score and I think he will be able to find the breaks to cover the mark here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: If the two players are fully healthy it could be the match of the day when Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Matteo Berrettini, but there are some questions about the status of the Italian who struggled to get over the line in the Third Round. An obvious injury was hindering Berrettini who might have had difficulties winning the match if he had been forced to play a fourth and potentially a fifth set, and now there is limited time for Matteo Berrettini to get ready for this one.

We have seen from Novak Djokovic that it is possible for an injury to clear up, but Matteo Berrettini will have had trouble with this match up anyway and so any hinderance to his health could be an issue for him here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has been in fine form in Melbourne since arriving for the Australian Open and he has backed up strong showings at the ATP Cup with three impressive wins. He did need the full five sets to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, but I think that stands Tsitsipas in good stead with his mental strength evident in winning a match he deserved to rather than falling short as he did in a similar spot at the US Open last September.

His numbers have been brilliant over the last month, although there is always the question as to how Stefanos Tsitsipas is able to sustain those. The serve has been a big weapon for him for some time, but I have been critical of the return game and felt he needed a big improvement in that aspect of his tennis if he was going to go on and win a Grand Slam title and more beyond.

So far we have seen a vast improvement on that side of his game- Stefanos Tsitsipas has broken in around 17-20% of return games played on hard courts over the course of a season in the last three seasons. However he has improved that mark to 35% in Melbourne which includes a couple of matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and that has to offer Tsitsipas and his fans huge encouragement for what may come at the end of this week.

The return numbers would be tested by the big serving Matteo Berrettini brings to the court, but if he is restricted it could make him vulnerable in this Fourth Round match. If he can't get enough first serves in play it will give his opponent a real edge considering the returning struggles Matteo Berrettini has had on the hard courts and I think we will get a similar kind of win as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas had over this opponent two years ago at the Australian Open.

On that occasion Stefanos Tsitsipas only faced two break points in the match and earned three breaks of serve to come through in four sets and also cover this mark. I think he will likely have too much again for Matteo Berrettini who will challenge for a while, but perhaps not be able to compete behind his serve as much as usual and see Stefanos Tsitsipas continue his surprisingly strong returning to open the 2021 season.

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Casper Ruud: If someone had asked me at which Grand Slam would I expect Casper Ruud to make the second week for the first time, the French Open would have been very high on my list. His best results have certainly come in Paris, but Casper Ruud has backed up his Third Round run at the US Open last September by reaching the Fourth Round in Melbourne, although he has benefited from the draw.

The Norwegian has yet to beat anyone Ranked below Number 49 in the world, while he was also beaten in his first match in the warm up event held here last week. Overall the numbers look decent enough with Casper Ruud holding 90% of service games played in the tournament and with breaks in 27% of return games played.

That will give Ruud some confidence, but he has been returning to a higher level than he has produced in the last couple of years on the hard courts. It will be interesting to see if he can sustain that beyond the small sample of matches we have seen at the Australian Open, but Casper Ruud will also be the first to admit that this is going to be a considerably tougher match than he has faced in 2021.

Casper Ruud is just 3-14 when playing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts and in those matches he has held 80% of service games played and broken in just 11% of return games.

Now he has to take on the in-form Andrey Rublev who looks to be developing at an extremely fast pace and who has been playing really well in the ATP Cup and Australian Open in 2021. The Russian had really strong hard court numbers in 2020 and he has continued performing at a top level in the opening month of the new year with the feeling being this could be another strong year for Rublev on the Tour.

In the seven matches played in 2021, Andrey Rublev has held 97% of service games played and that does put an immense amount of pressure on opponents. He is winning 75% of service points played and has only been broken once at the Australian Open and I do think there is room for improvement when it comes to the return despite the relatively straight-forward three wins put together in the tournament.

Andrey Rublev will be looking to have a bit more success on the return and it may give Casper Ruud some confidence he can at least stay with the higher Ranked opponent he is facing. However, it should be noted that Rublev has still managed to break in 25% of return games played in the tournament and added to the serving it makes it very hard for player's to keep that belief going.

The Russian has beaten Casper Ruud in both previous matches and has held 83% of the time, while breaking in 33% of return games. Those have come on clay courts so this is expected to be a tougher match in which to break, but Andrey Rublev should have the superior moments and I think he will be able to pull away if he does get into a lead as the pressure from the return picks up on Casper Ruud.

Elise Mertens - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: Backing up big wins can be very challenging for any player on the Tennis Tour, and there is also the lack of experience of playing in the latter stages of the Grand Slams which could go against Karolina Muchova. However she has reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final before and last year managed to get to the US Open Fourth Round and that will give Muchova belief after beating compatriot Karolina Pliskova in the Third Round.

This is another tough match for the Czech player as she prepares to take on Elise Mertens- the Belgian has some strong numbers, but she has to prove she is able to handle the pressure of playing some of the better players on the Tour. Elise Mertens has reached three Grand Slam Quarter Finals and all of those have come on the hard courts, but her best successes have actually been on the Doubles Tour and that is sometimes down to the inability to beat some of the better names on the Tour in the Singles draws.

It has been a strong tournament for Elise Mertens so far having won every set played and only one of those sets has seen her drop more than three games. Unsurprisingly the numbers have been eye-catching and it has also backed up the run she had to the title in a warm up event for the Australian Open so you would think confidence won't be an issue for her, although controlling nerves may be the biggest factor.

Like Mertens, Karolina Muchova has not dropped a set in the tournament, but she needed to come from 5-0 down in the second set in her Third Round win over Karolina Pliskova to keep the run going. Much of that was down to Pliskova's drop in level, but Karolina Muchova has to be better and more consistent if she is going to beat someone who is playing as well as Elise Mertens has been.

When they met on the hard courts at the end of the 2020 season, Elise Mertens dominated the match against Karolina Muchova which was backed up by her strong serving. That shot is going to be the key for both players in this Fourth Round match and I do think Mertens has the edge in that department so far in the tournament and in that previous match in Ostrava in October.

It should see the Belgian have the edge at key moments and I think she is going to be too good for Karolina Muchova.

Elise Mertens has sometimes put in a terrible performance in the business end of Grand Slams as the pressure has perhaps got to her, but she is playing the better tennis of the two and I think that sees her through to another Quarter Final.

Jennifer Brady - 4.5 games v Donna Vekic: In ten consecutive Grand Slam tournaments Jennifer Brady had failed to go beyond the Second Round, but the 25 year old broke through in a big way at the US Open when reaching the Semi Final last September. She has backed that up and the American has reached the second week of the Australian Open for the second time in her career in 2021.

Jennifer Brady is at a career high World Ranking and is set to break into the top 20 in the coming weeks, but for now the American is looking to keep the momentum behind her. She has been dominant in her three wins at the Australian Open and none of the six sets she has played has seen an opponent win more than three games against Brady.

The numbers have been special with a single break of serve being allowed, and that has given Jennifer Brady an opportunity to get her teeth into return games and so far she has won over 51% of return points played. Jennifer Brady has broken fourteen times in three matches and in all of those she has earned at least four breaks of serve.

It is very encouraging as Jennifer Brady gets set to take on Donna Vekic, a player who put in a lot of physical and emotional effort in coming from a set and a break down to beat Kaia Kanepi in the Third Round. She needed over two and a half hours to win that match, and it is the second time in the tournament that Donna Vekic has gone into a third hour in a match while she has had to come from a set behind to win matches twice too.

Donna Vekic has strong serving numbers which will give her a chance in matches, but it will be an aspect of her game that is challenged by Jennifer Brady if Vekic is feeling the exertions of the first week of the tournament. While she has returned well enough in the Australian Open, Vekic has not been the best in that part of her game in recent years on the hard courts and it could be a big challenge for her facing this Jennifer Brady serve.

The returning against Kaia Kanepi will be very encouraging and I think that will give Donna Vekic a chance, but I do think the American opponent facing her is playing with extreme confidence at the moment. Jennifer Brady is blowing opponents off the court and I think she will have too much for Vekic if the returning numbers and successes regress to the kind of levels the Croatian has generally shown throughout her career.

Donna Vekic did win their sole previous meeting, but that was on the clay courts and I think Jennifer Brady earns a measure of revenge by making it to her first Australian Open Quarter Final in some style.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 36-35, - 6.58 Units (142 Units Staked, - 4.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 15th)

We are down to the final four at the tournaments that have been played this week and at the same time the Qualifiers will be beginning for the four new events that are set to be played over the next several days.

I am still looking to round off this week with a positive run that can ensure a winning record and adding to the 2020 totals. That may finally be decided by how the Picks from the Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Saturday go. There are some good looking Semi Finals to be played through the course of the day, although I am going to have to add any selections from ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York to this thread once those markets are put together.

The other tournaments have managed to put some early markets together for their Semi Final matches and you can read the Picks below.


Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: For the third match in a row Pablo Carreno Busta needed a lot of time on the court to come through a three setter. The accumulated fatigue could be a potential issue for the Spaniard, but there has to be some confidence in Carreno Busta's play having saved Match Points on his way to beating Jannik Sinner on Friday.

That confidence can be built up by winning consecutive matches in a final set Tie Breaker, but Carreno Busta might have been able to win matches a little easier if he had not dropped the second set in every match played this week. Pablo Carreno Busta has also been saving a lot of Break Points so far in Rotterdam having faced twenty-three in the last two matches while creating just ten of his own.

The serve has been in decent nick throughout 2020 for Pablo Carreno Busta and he has won 66% of the points played behind serve in Rotterdam and has held 87% of the service games played. However there is a reason the results have not been as good as Carreno Busta would have wanted and that is largely down to the struggles he has had on the return of serve with breaks of serve in just 14% of return gams played so far this week.

It is going to be a big test for Pablo Carreno Busta on the return when facing Felix Auger Aliassime whose numbers in 2020 have been significantly better than the ones the Spaniard has been producing. The young player has spent a lot less time on court so far this week which may be a key difference on the day, while Auger Aliassime has some strong numbers behind him.

The Canadian has held 87% of service games played so far this week and he is winning 68% of service points played which should help Auger Aliassime try and stay on top of Pablo Carreno Busta. While those numbers are similar to Pablo Carreno Busta's, Felix Auger Aliassime has broken in 25% of return games played and that is where he can have a little more success than his opponent and thus get into a position to not only win the match, but also to cover the mark.

It has to be said that the return can sometimes be a little limited from Felix Auger Aliassime, but he should be the fresher player and has shown significantly better form so far this week. There is enough here to make me believe the younger player is worth getting behind here and that is what I will do.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Both of these Rotterdam Semi Finalists had to win a very tight opening set on a Tie Breaker and both will know the match could have easily begun in a very different way. Ultimately both Gael Monfils and Filip Krajinovic did win those Tie Breakers and then were deserved winners as they get set for the second week in a row.

Last week Gael Monfils beat Filip Krajinovic in the Montpellier Semi Final and he went on to win the title there and he is looking to defend his title here in Rotterdam too. The Frenchman's return has been huge for him so far this week and he has broken opponents regularly throughout the tournament and it might be the key difference between these two in this Semi Final.

It won't be easy for Monfils because Filip Krajinovic has been serving very well in the matches he has played here. He has held in 93% of service games played although that is a mark that is significantly better than where Krajinovic has been with his serve in the last three seasons.

Even this season Krajinovic has held 78% of the service games played on the hard courts so the feeling is that his mark will come back to his usual average at some point before the tournament is completed. Filip Krajinovic has returned well enough too as he has been able to free his arms thanks to the confidence he has earned from his serving, but the mark is some way below where Gael Monfils has been with his return game an I still think that gives the higher Ranked player a real advantage.

In their two previous hard court matches against one another, Filip Krajinovic has held 76% of the service games played compared with Gael Monfils' 87% mark. The match last week was fairly competitive, but Monfils was not really threatened on his own serve and there was a 10% difference between the two players in favour of Monfils when it came to percentage of points won behind the serve.

Neither player has been taxed in terms of the length of time spent on court and so I do expect to see the best of both of them. My edge has to be with Gael Monfils whose serve might be enough of a difference on the day to help the Frenchman win and cover.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-16, + 6.02 Units (74 Units Staked, + 8.14% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 15-18)

There was a real feeling of deflation at around 10pm on Tuesday evening once the Manchester United defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was confirmed, but I really do think that is how far Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has changed the mood at Old Trafford since taking over from Jose Mourinho.

I genuinely believed United could win the First Leg, although I was very much unsure about winning the tie as a whole and it does feel the Champions League race is run.

It is important for the players to remember that they can still make this a very successful season if they can win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premier League, especially when you think where the club were the day Mourinho was sacked.

The FA Cup is up this weekend with the Fifth Round taking centre stage while the Premier League clubs who are out of the competition get a chance to rest and recover for the big League games ahead. There are a number of lower League clubs hosting Premier League teams from Friday through to Sunday and the television companies will select those games for live coverage hoping to be able to find an upset or two. Finally it will be the turn of Chelsea and Manchester United who play on Monday evening just after the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round is made.

That does mean we are not having any Fantasy Selections this week, but those will be back in the thread for the Premier League games next weekend.


Queens Park Rangers v Watford Pick: The opening FA Cup Fifth Round tie comes from Loftus Road on Friday night as one of a number of selected games for live coverage. I am not sure Steve McClaren will be that pleased that his team are being asked to play on Friday considering Queens Park Rangers played in the League on Tuesday, but there isn't a lot the manager can do about that.

It is already a difficult enough challenge for Queens Park Rangers to take on a Premier League opponent, but Watford should be well rested having been in action last Saturday. However trying to second guess the manager is not easy and Javi Gracia making wholesale changes as he has done in the first couple of FA Cup ties will perhaps leave Watford a little vulnerable in this one.

Loftus Road is not an easy venue to play at and through the last few years where Queens Park Rangers have been struggling a number of big clubs have visited here without success. Those have come in League games as Queens Park Rangers have had miserable Cup records, but McClaren's men have won both FA Cup ties at home against Leeds United and Portsmouth and will believe they can make it a hat-trick on Friday.

Queens Park Rangers have scored a huge amount of goals at home over the last couple of months and they have managed at least two in 7 of their last 9 here in all competitions. That certainly makes them dangerous and confident of causing an upset and Watford will have to be on their toes to avoid that.

The Premier League team can be encouraged if they watched Queens Park Rangers concede four goals in home losses to Preston North End and Birmingham City in recent weeks. Watford have also been a team who have scored plenty of goals in away games since early December and I have a feeling we are going to be given an entertaining game on Friday evening.

I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous in this one, but Queens Park Rangers and Watford have shown they can score plenty of goals at home/away respectively. Neither has looked defensively sound either and I am surprised to see three or more goals being scored priced up at odds against.

My feeling is that Watford may just do enough to win here with fatigue perhaps seeing Queens Park Rangers tire after League exertions on Tuesday evening, but the Premier League club look plenty short at odds on to win. Backing goals looks a more appealing price all in all and that will be my selection from this Fifth Round tie.


Brighton v Derby County Pick: This FA Cup Fifth Round tie is a tough one to try and predict what the managers of both Brighton and Derby County will be thinking considering League matters are the priority for both Chris Hughton and Frank Lampard.

In recent weeks Brighton have slumped back towards the bottom three thanks to teams below them improving and the 1-3 home defeat to Burnley was a big blow to them. You would think they still have enough to avoid relegation, but Hughton will be aware of their slide and I do wonder if that comes into his thinking when selecting a team ahead of big Premier League games to come.

The bonus for the manager is the fact that Brighton are not due out again until a week on Tuesday because their League game with Chelsea is postponed next week as The Blues are playing in the League Cup Final. They've had plenty of time to get players ready for this one and it may mean Chris Hughton selects a strong team in a bid to rediscover the winning feeling which has been lost.

All season Frank Lampard has picked strong teams in the Cups for Derby County and he has been rewarded with some big performances. They have drawn 2-2 at both Manchester United and Southampton in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively and both times Derby County were able to win on penalties, while The Rams also pushed Chelsea in the League Cup at Stamford Bridge in what was an eventual 3-2 defeat.

The players won't be overawed by this occasion either, but Derby County have played a game during the week while Brighton were resting and have another big League game to come on Wednesday. That does potentially impact the team selection for the visitors and makes the prices look hard to oppose.

I was keen on selecting Derby County with a start on the Asian Handicap, but the schedule spot looks to favour Brighton who are also at home. What Derby County can do is give their hosts something to think about and the fact they have scored at least two goals at three Premier League grounds in the Cup already this season will give the fans belief that an upset can be created.

A lack of Brighton goals is a worry for Chris Hughton, but Derby County don't defend as well as they would like away from home and we may see goals in this one. The weather looks good for football this weekend and I do think the two teams can expose vulnerabilities the other has in defensive areas to make this another FA Cup Fifth Round tie that does have at least three goals shared out this weekend. 


AFC Wimbledon v Millwall Pick: There won't be too many times clubs like AFC Wimbledon and Millwall will have the kind of opportunity to make the Quarter Final of the FA Cup as the one they are presented with this weekend.

Both sets of fans have seen their clubs have success in the FA Cup in the past and both upset Premier League clubs at home in the Fourth Round to earn their spot in this tie, but there will be a different feeling around this one. With just two wins between them and a stunning outing at Wembley Stadium the players will look to put their relegation battles in League One and the Championship respectively aside for this weekend.

In the last Round neither club were under pressure to win, but I do think AFC Wimbledon and Millwall players will have a different feeling for this one. Knowing they have a very winnable tie in front of them to reach a FA Cup Quarter Final is going to be the distraction they need to avoid to make sure each player is doing the job assigned to him and I do think this is a very close one to call.

The obvious favourite is Millwall considering they are twenty-nine places higher up the League standings than AFC Wimbledon. However you can't ignore how poorly Millwall have played away from home during this entire season and the results are not exactly the kind you would want to see from an odds on shot to win a game of football.

Millwall have perhaps been unfortunate in some of those games, but they have to be feeling the pressure a little more than AFC Wimbledon who will still believe they can use the underdog spirit to shock their higher League opponents. That pressure may have affected Millwall in a 1-0 loss to League One strugglers Rochdale in the FA Cup last season when Millwall were playing much higher up the Championship at that time and I do think they are vulnerable as the favourites.

It is hard to back an AFC Wimbledon team who have not scored enough goals and who have lost to the likes of Sunderland and Burton Albion since the win over West Ham United. Both of those clubs came down from the Championship and Millwall should have a clear edge in terms of quality in this one too.

However the situation of the fixture and AFC Wimbledon having nothing to lose gives them every chance of the upset. It can't be ignored that Millwall have struggled for away wins and the players know the weight of expectation is on them, while that 1-0 loss at Rochdale last season shows they may potentially struggle to cope with that.

Backing AFC Wimbledon with the start looks the way to go in this one as they can at least force Extra Time before they perhaps fade against a team from a higher Division. The first goal will be critical for them and if AFC Wimbledon get that I do think they will avoid defeat within the ninety minutes.


Newport County v Manchester City Pick: It might be a football game where eleven play eleven, but I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to see Manchester City as a huge favourite to beat Newport County and move through to the FA Cup Quarter Final for the second time under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.

The 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic twelve months ago has really been something that Guardiola has not forgotten and that has seen him pick strong teams in the domestic Cup competitions as they have made progression on four fronts. Heavy wins over the likes of Oxford United, Burton Albion and Rotherham United from the lower Leagues shows what Manchester City can do even when they make a few changes to the starting eleven and the squad depth is actually pretty scary.

In this one you can expect to see seasoned internationals like Danilo and Nicolas Otamendi playing in defensive areas, while Fabian Delph played at the World Cup last summer and also could come in. Both Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus are players who terrorise opponents in the Premier League so all the quality is with Manchester City and it is going to need to be a serious off day for them to lose here.

Newport County can't be completely dismissed though- a lot of the big Manchester City wins over lower League opponents have come at the Etihad Stadium where the playing surface is a carpet. Rodney Parade is far from that and it might just take a bit of time for the visitors to adjust to their surroundings.

The League Two club have beaten Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Leicester City in the FA Cup at home over the last thirteen months. Tottenham Hotspur needed an 82nd minute Harry Kane equaliser to force a Replay last season, but Manchester City don't have the same luxury with this tie needing to be completed on Saturday evening.

With that in mind I expect a slightly stronger team than the one that played and won 0-1 at Burton Albion in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg last month. Even that Manchester City team had the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero playing, but I don't think this team will be littered with the Academy players like that Second Leg line up was.

It should mean Manchester City win pretty easily on the day, but they are being asked to cover a very big handicap on a playing surface that is not easy to deal with. A Newport County goal can't be ruled out as they load the box and look for set pieces to try and disrupt Manchester City, but at the end of the day the Premier League leaders should be comfortable enough.

Comfortable means matching the wins at Oxford United and Burton Albion in the League Cup earlier this season. Manchester City won 0-3 and 0-1 on those days and I think this one is likely to be closer to the former scoreline. In the win at Oxford United, Manchester City scored twice in the final twelve minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline and I have a feeling something similar is going to happen here.

For the first 45 minutes I can see Newport County having the energy to chase their runners but I am expecting them to tire against a relentless Manchester City team. It's looking like a dry weekend so the pitch won't cut up too much and it feels Manchester City will wear down their opponents and then pull away in the second half so backing the second period to be the higher scoring half is my selection.

In the League Cup wins over Oxford United and Burton Albion at home, as well as the FA Cup wins over Rotherham United and Burnley, Manchester City scored more goals in the second half than the first. At just under odds on I think that happens here, while so looking at in-play markets may back a goal to be scored in the final ten minutes if the prices suit.


Bristol City v Wolves Pick: The first live FA Cup tie on Sunday afternoon comes from Ashton Gate and this has all the makings of a really interesting Fifth Round meeting between Bristol City and Wolves. Neither team has made it through to the latter stages of the FA Cup for a long time now and the players have to be smelling the opportunity of really making this a memorable season in the competition even if the priority for both may be finishing as high as possible in their respective Divisions.

Lee Johnson and Nuno Espirito Santo have six days to prepare their teams for their next League fixtures though and I think the managers will appreciate the chance in front of Bristol City and Wolves respectively.

Bristol City have been in fine form of late too with 9 straight wins in all competitions and they have been scoring plenty of goals at Ashton Gate. That will give them the belief they can find a way past Wolves having beaten Premier League Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this season and last season seeing off the likes of Stoke City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Ashton Gate in the League Cup on their way to the Semi Final.

That makes them dangerous and this is going to be a tough test for a Wolves team who may be pretty good defensively, but who don't earn a lot of clean sheets. Wolves needed to come from 2-0 down to earn a late draw with Shrewsbury Town in the initial FA Cup Fourth Round tie away from home, but they have won 0-2 at Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup and much will depend on what kind of team the manager selects.

Even a full strength Wolves team will be tested, but they have shown they can turn on the style away from home and picking a winner is not easy. The chances of seeing Extra Time can't be ignored, but Bristol City and Wolves tend to be involved in entertaining games over the last three seasons and that trend being continued suggests there will be a winner in normal time.

The last 5 between these clubs have all ended with at least three goals shared out and 2 of those have come at Ashton Gate. 3 of those 5 games have featured at least four goals and both teams have scored in each of those fixtures.

I do think both teams will score here and the 1-1 is perhaps the one scoreline that will let me down with my selection. However I think both teams will really want to go for this and it could mean an open, attacking game of football that features at least three or more goals shared out as Bristol City and Wolves have done in recent meetings against each other.

That's an odds against shot here and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Fifth Round tie.


Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace Pick: The second of the live televised games in the FA Cup on Sunday comes from the Keepmoat Stadium as Doncaster Rovers try and upset Premier League Crystal Palace. That is something the television companies will be looking for in this tie and the home team are in good enough form to believe they can bridge the gap to a Premier League opponent.

Being at home is the key for Doncaster Rovers who are unbeaten in 10 in front of their own fans in all competitions and they have won 8 of those games. Goals have been flowing at home with at least two scored in each of those 10 fixtures and Doncaster Rovers have something of a reputation of being able to upset higher League clubs over the last few years.

It won't be easy to knock off a Crystal Palace team who have been scoring a lot more goals away from home than they do at Selhurst Park. Part of the reason is that teams come onto their in front of their own fans and that has left spaces for a pacy front three to exploit, but it doesn't feel like Doncaster Rovers will be playing with that kind of attacking intent in mind.

Yes I do think Doncaster Rovers will get forward and try and rattle their Premier League opponents, but they will also respect the fact that they are not favourites and so will also be making sure they don't give too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack.

The mentality of the Crystal Palace players will be the key to how well they do on Sunday- if they are fully focused and respect Doncaster Rovers you would expect them to win, but Bristol City and Middlesbrough have knocked out The Eagles from domestic Cup competitions under Roy Hodgson. Both of those losses came away from home so Doncaster Rovers could come close to upsetting them too with the Premier League the priority for the former England manager.

Crystal Palace do have a week before they are back in League action so they can pick a strong team and this feels like yet another Cup tie this weekend that is going to see a lower League club contribute to a high-scoring game against a Premier League one. I did consider backing Doncaster Rovers with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap, but my overriding feeling is that is going to be a push as the visitors edge through by scoring the majority of the three goals shared out on Sunday.

I do think Doncaster Rovers will play their part, but they may also leave themselves open if they begin chasing the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Cup tie in England this weekend.


Swansea City v Brentford Pick: Both Swansea City and Brentford have to be looking at this FA Cup Fifth Round tie and really believing they have an excellent chance to not only reach the Quarter Final, but with the right draw could also play at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final.

A maximum of six Premier League clubs can make the Last Eight in the FA Cup this season and with the way the Third and Fourth Round have gone I don't think anyone will be surprised if a couple more than expected were to be beaten in the Fifth Round.

It would really open the door for the winner of this tie depending on the draw on Monday and I think that does create some pressure on the players. At least the Swansea City players have the experience of playing in the Quarter Final eleven months ago and I do believe home advantage is going to see them edge out Brentford in this one.

The Bees have improved away from home in the last couple of months, but they are still a team who struggle to produce wins on their travels. On the other hand Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5 games at the Liberty Stadium and Graham Potter has them playing some very good football here.

Swansea City have a good record against Brentford at home, but host them for the first time in over ten years. They did win 2-3 at Griffin Park to give them a slight mental advantage in this Fifth Round tie and I think Swansea City are going to edge it.

I will not be surprised if this is yet another high-scoring FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I give Swansea City enough of an edge to back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Home advantage should just see the pendulum swing in their favour and Swansea City's run of 3 wins in 4 games here can be extended to put their name into the draw for the Quarter Final.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw for the Fifth Round of the FA Cup was made there was only one tie that leaped off the page and it has been selected for live television coverage on Monday evening. A part of the problem was the Chelsea participation in the Europa League on Thursday evening, but that isn't going to make Manchester United fans feel any better having to travel to London for a late Monday night fixture.

The fans are secondary to the television money will come as no surprise to those who regularly attend matches, but there isn't much you can do about that now.

On the field the fixture looks to be coming at a better time for Chelsea than it does for Manchester United despite the fact the visitors have had two extra days to prepare for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie. Unfortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United are coming off a loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League which has really burst what had been a positive bubble for the club.

Bouncing back would have been much more likely if both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard were available, but muscle injuries suffered last Tuesday means they are unlikely to be risked here. It gives Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku another opportunity to impress after both were key to the win over Arsenal in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the Emirates Stadium last month, but neither has really been a big part of the Solskjaer plans and may be under pressure to deliver.

Chelsea may have played on Thursday and they may not be long off the embarrassing loss to Manchester City in the Premier League, but a win in Malmo would have just eased some tensions. They have also been in much better form at home in the last six weeks than on their travels and Chelsea have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge while scoring two or more goals in each of those.

The Blues also have a very strong recent record against Manchester United with 9 games unbeaten against them at Stamford Bridge. They've also won the last 4 FA Cup ties between the clubs including beating Manchester United 1-0 in each of the last two seasons (one Quarter Final and one Final). That has to give them belief they can make it a hat-trick here, but Manchester United can play their part and offer a threat on the counter attack as they did at the Emirates Stadium last month.

Both teams will be looking to get on the front foot and for me Chelsea look short considering they have shown signs of being a team that drop heads when they fall behind. If United were at full strength I would fancy them to win here, but the injuries may just have come at the wrong time.

I still expect a reaction from the players after the 0-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Manchester United should have their chances on the counter attack. With Chelsea being in better form at home this could be a decent FA Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy on Monday evening too, and I think it is going to be one that produces at least three goals.

In recent seasons games between Manchester United and Chelsea have been tight affairs, but the outlook and approach of the two managers suggests this one will be different. A Jose Mourinho led Manchester United team scored twice here back in October and Ole Gunner Solskjaer is going to want his team to get forward.

There remain serious defensive issues that can be exploited by Chelsea too though and I think both teams will hit at least one goal in this one. Neither manager will want to settle for Extra Time or penalties so I imagine a positive game develops through much of the evening and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.

MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Sporting Bet
Brighton-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor
AFC Wimbledon + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Newport County-Manchester City Second Half Highest Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Bristol City-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power
Doncaster Rovers-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Paddy Power