Tennis Picks 2026 (Monday 16th February)

That was not the start to the new week that I would have wanted, but it is frustrating that it was a point or two that saw both Picks slip into the losing side of the ledger.

Linda Noskova and Liudmila Samsonova both had opportunities to break serve which would have put them in command of the opportunity to cover the spread.

Instead those Break Points were won by the opponents and that leaves work to do in order to get this week back on track.

On Monday the rest of the First Round at the WTA 1000 event in Dubai will be completed and there are a couple of Second Round matches also scheduled.

The ATP 500 events in Doha and Rio will also get into main draw action, as will the 250 tournament being played on the hard courts of Delray Beach. Selections from the two tournaments played on the North and South American continents will be added to the threads on most days over the coming week and that is simply because those markets will come out much later than for the two events being played in the Middle East.

Ultimately it is all about getting back on track and trying to put the best week together since the end of the Australian Open.

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: After stating her excitement about being back in Abu Dhabi where she had won titles in the previous two appearances, Belinda Bencic would have been extremely disappointed to have had to withdrawn before her first match with an illness. She did not take part in Doha last week either, which has meant slipping back outside the top ten in the World Rankings, but Belinda Bencic has begun 2026 in solid form and will be looking to pick up some important Ranking Points this week in Dubai.

This has not been a tournament in which Belinda Bencic has had nearly as much success as Abu Dhabi, but that does mean she has little in terms of Ranking Points to defend. In 2025 she was beaten in the Second Round and Belinda Bencic will certainly be targeting a longer stay before heading over to the United States to take part at Indian Wells and Miami.

A Second Round defeat in Melbourne would have hurt, but Belinda Bencic had a really strong run at the United Cup and she will know she should have won that match at the Australian Open.

Every player on the Tour will feel there is room for improvement and Belinda Bencic may want to protect the second serve a little more efficiently, but the overall performances on the hard courts over the last twelve months makes her a contender to win titles on the surface.

As much as you have to respect Jessica Bouzas Maneiro for working her way into the top 50 of the World Rankings, it cannot be ignored that she has had a difficult start to 2026.

The 23 year old has lost three of the four matches played since the beginning of the new season, while Bouzas Maneiro also finished with a losing record on the hard courts last year.

It would be something that could be excused if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro had been given some really tough draws, but she crushed Coco Gauff at the United Cup and has since lost to the then World Number 66 and World Number 367. The manner of those defeats would be a real concern, while Bouzas Maneiro was beaten by Anna Kalinskaya in very routine fashion last week in Doha.

As long as Belinda Bencic is still not feeling a lingering effects from the illness that forced her out of Abu Dhabi, the Swiss player should have too much on this surface and she can win with a break or two more in each set.

Emma Navarro - 2.5 games v Elena-Gabriela Ruse: You are never going to get over a difficult period where you have lost form and confidence very easily, but Emma Navarro did put at least one win on the board in Doha last week. That was not something she could extend to consecutive matches for the first time since Adelaide, but the American has an opportunity to at least the Second Round here in Dubai.

She will be opening up against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, who was beaten very comfortably in Cluj in front of the home fans.

The World Number 72 came through Qualifying wins in Brisbane and Adelaide, but was not able to win main draw matches, before Elena-Gabriela Ruse reached the Third Round at the Australian Open. Winning two Qualifying matches here in Dubai has to have given Ruse a boost in confidence, while the familiarity with the conditions is a factor that goes in her favour too.

Like many on the Tour, Elena-Gabriela Ruse knows the importance of backing up the first serve on the faster surfaces and that has led to a winning record on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

However, the numbers have taken a significant dip when only considering matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface in that time period. In those Elena-Gabriela Ruse has a 3-8 record, while she has not been able to serve nearly as effectively as she would like and that has placed additional pressure on the return game.

Of course she is facing an opponent who is not in confident mood and that will help, but Emma Navarro is still getting enough of her own serve to believe she will begin to turn things around.

Having little in terms of World Ranking Point to defend in the Middle East run is a help, but Navarro will also suggest she is still playing at a high enough level to beat this opponent in front of her.

Two previous matches, both on the hard courts, have gone in Emma Navarro's favour with the most recent being played around six months ago in Beijing.

It was far from a win as comfortable as the scoreboard may suggest with both players giving the other plenty to think about on the return of serve.

That is likely to be the case again on Monday in the First Round in Dubai, even in the quicker conditions we tend to see at this tournament.

Those conditions could help Emma Navarro a little more though and that is where the World Number 18 may find a way to battle past the opponent and the line set for this match.

Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: A spread like this one does look a little disrespectful to a former Grand Slam Winner in Jelena Ostapenko, but these days her most consistent tennis tends to be played on a Doubles court.

With that being said, respect has to be given to the World Number 24 for reaching the Doha Semi Final at a WTA 1000 event.

The run was unexpected considering Jelena Ostapenko had been 2-4 on the hard courts in 2026, but she took advantage of a number of upsets around her in Doha. While beating one top 20 Ranked opponent, the other three wins in the tournament were against players Ranked Number 57 or lower and Jelena Ostapenko found herself well beaten by Victoria Mboko in the Semi Final.

Over the last two and a bit years on the hard courts, Jelena Ostapenko's numbers have been declining and she finished with an 8-14 record on the surface last year.

Reaching the Semi Final in Doha will help the confidence, but Ostapenko played a lot of tennis at that tournament having also reached the Doubles Final. The Latvian, and her partner, blew a massive lead in that Final before being beaten and this is a match up that has given Jelena Ostapenko problems in the past.

Anna Kalinskaya has made a much stronger start to 2026, although she was beaten in the Quarter Final in Doha to eventual Champion Karolina Muchova.

All four of the defeats suffered in 2026 have been against top 20 Ranked opponents, which also deserves a lot of respect, and the Anna Kalinskaya numbers being put together on the hard courts have been much better than those produced by Jelena Ostapenko.

The World Number 28 will certainly feel she can be more effective behind the second serve compared with Jelena Ostapenko, while the latter is much more likely to throw in too many Unforced Errors.

In the three previous matches on the Tour, Anna Kalinskaya has not only won all three, but she has not dropped a set and the service numbers have been much stronger on her side of the net.

Having had a little more time to prepare for this tournament in Doha, most factors seem to be in favour of the lower Ranked player and Anna Kalinskaya can lay the foundation for another strong Middle East run by producing a strong win in this First Round match in Dubai.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Emma Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 16th February)

A title might have been handed out at 1000 level when Amanda Anisimova completed her win over Jelena Ostapenko on Saturday, but the talking point throughout the sport would have been the news that broke earlier in the day.

Jannik Sinner has been suspended for three months for the failed test he administered last year in Indian Wells.

However, this is a story that has upset many involved in the sport- many believe the suspension is lenient and the fact that Sinner has been allowed to not only compete, but has won two Grand Slams in New York City and Melbourne has really not been a good look for the sport.

The same will be said about the one month suspension that was handed out to Iga Swiatek, also at a time when it would not really affect her overall plans.

Yes, Sinner will miss a couple of big events in Doha and Dubai and both Masters events in North America, but he is scheduled to return at the Rome Masters and cleared to play at the French Open.

It this really the right punishment? If a deal has been struck to serve the suspension now, and a limited one at that, is that going to be something other players stating mistakes have led to failures can also ask for?

Even level headed players are going to be concerned about this outcome- Stan Wawrinka made his feelings clear through his social channels- and this is a story that is set to run and run.

The timing of the suspension doesn't feel like much of a deterrent and having top players pick and choose what they are willing to accept seems bizarre. Having Sinner back in time for Rome will obviously see him ease his back onto the Tour with the fans behind him, but many will look at this whole situation cockeyed and wondering how clean the sport really is.

A tough week for the Tennis Picks has come to a conclusion on Saturday, but a new week means a new game and a chance for redemption.

The season numbers have been updated and there are some big events taking place this week, which will make it feel like a Grand Slam week.

Top names are out on the courts and it should be one the fans can enjoy, even with Jannik Sinner being a notable absentee.

Linda Noskova - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The WTA Tour moving through the Middle East has given Linda Noskova an opportunity to pick up some vital World Ranking points and she has played well in Abu Dhabi and Doha.

Three wins were secured in Abu Dhabi and two more were put on the board in Doha, while Linda Noskova will feel she played well enough to beat Iga Swiatek last week.

Next up is Dubai and another WTA 1000 event with the main draw getting underway on Sunday. The First Round has placed Linda Noskova in a rematch with Yulia Putintseva having beaten her last week in Doha, but there will have to be a respect for the latter.

It was only the end of January when Yulia Putintseva earned a spot in the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time in her career, but she is 1-2 during this run through the Middle East. One of the keys to the early successes on the Tour was the effectiveness of the first serve, but that has not been the case for Yulia Putintseva this month and Linda Noskova was able to also win enough points on that shot to then expose what has been a vulnerable second serve.

The return has not always been the best part of Noskova's game, but the younger player will feel she can get in front of the rally if she is able to have the successes she did when facing Yulia Putintseva last week in Doha. Overall the return has been working much better in the tournaments in Abu Dhabi and Doha and that should give Linda Noskova the edge in this First Round match.

Linda Noskova is the World Number 35 and so the lower Ranked player in this First Round match, but she has been serving really well over the last couple of weeks and that is an important factor that gives her the edge over Yulia Putintseva.

The latter is dropping out of the top 20 in the World Rankings when the new numbers are released and Yulia Putintseva will do well to turn things around against an opponent who had dominated the match last week.

Tennis is a sport of inches and so Putintseva will feel she can win the bigger points, especially as it felt like Linda Noskova won all of the Break Points that they competed in- however, Noskova created five opportunities compared with just two for the higher Ranked player and she can win this match and cover the relatively wide spread.

Belinda Bencic - 5.5 games v Aoi Ito: You cannot blame Belinda Bencic if she was a little disappointed to have not been invited to compete at the tournament in Doha last week, but it has been a positive month for the returning star. Winning the title in Abu Dhabi will have just eased the frustration of not playing in Doha and Belinda Bencic is already back up to World Number 66 and she can push on with a big run at this WTA 1000 event.

No one could have really expected to see this level of tennis from Belinda Bencic just months after giving birth, but also missing so much competitive action.

Belinda Bencic is playing at a good level, although there will be a feeling that there is still plenty of scope for improvement even after winning the title in Abu Dhabi.

The portion of the draw will not be easy to negotiate, but Belinda Bencic will be a solid favourite to get the better of Aoi Ito in the First Round.

The 20 year old Japanese player has won a lot of tennis matches over the last twelve months and will have to be given respect for beating Ashley Krueger in the final Qualifying Round. It was Ashley Krueger who faced Belinda Bencic in the Abu Dhabi Final, so is clearly a player in some form, and that will only have Aoi Ito believing in her tennis that much more as she begins to get used to playing top 100 Ranked opponents.

She had also Qualified for the tournament in Doha, but Ito was crushed in the First Round by Jelena Ostapenko, although that is a defeat that does not look so bad when you think of the fact that the Latvian made the Doha Final.

A title has also been won, albeit not at the main Tour level, and Aoi Ito may feel she can upset the odds if Belinda Bencic overlooks her.

There will be little knowledge of Aoi Ito, which also is a factor moving against Belinda Bencic, but this is a match that the latter should still be favoured to win.

Much will depend on the serve and just building some pressure on Aoi Ito, and the rest might actually have done Belinda Bencic some good after the long run earlier this month. This could all pay off for a solid win to open her campaign here in Dubai at the last big event to be played on the WTA Tour this month.

MY PICKS: Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 34-21, + 14.51 Units (93 Units Staked, + 15.60% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- O'Shaquie Foster vs Abraham Nova (February 16th)

It still grates that this should have been the weekend in which the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship of the World would have been decided.

A cut, not one that I personally think was done deliberately, has just postponed matters until mid-May and that fight should go ahead with all of the financial penalties that have been set up around the bout.

The postponement has left this weekend a little more open than most thought and that is why we have a couple of fight nights being shown on Friday rather than attempting to clash with the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk bout.

One card will be taking place in the United States and one in Mexico and both are headlined by fighters or fights who truly gave the fans a lot to be excited about the last time they were out on the ring.

A World Title is being defended in New York City and a big rematch will headline in Mexico.

The previous couple of fight nights had not been very effective for the Boxing Picks, but last Saturday was much better thanks to Hamzah Sheeraz' big win over Liam Williams.

It is a big performance that should have Sheeraz pushing on towards World level once Ramadan is over. The next step up is going to be crucial and Hamzah Sheeraz has given himself options by naming the likes of Chris Eubank Jr and Nathan Heaney as well as the current Middleweight World Champions in what is a weaker Division than we have been used to seeing in recent years.

Others that impressed and will be looking to move forward are Masood Abdulah and Sam Noakes who had strong showings on the undercard in London.

Frank Warren has to be happy and especially ahead of his Magnificent Seven card set for Birmingham in a month's time. It just shows that Queensberry are building up a solid roster of fighters, although the key for them, and Matchroom, is finding the next wave of stars that can lead British Boxing going forward.

O'Shaquie Foster vs Abraham Nova

A late rally saw O'Shaquie Foster retain the World Titles in a really good fight against Rocky Hernandez- he was down in the cards, but Foster came out and earned the Stoppage with just 22 seconds left in that contest.

It was a fight on a different platform, but the options to further the deal did not impress and O'Shaquie Foster is now in a multi-fight deal with Top Rank.

First up on the current deal is the chance of O'Shaquie Foster to headline an event in New York City against Abraham Nova.

Unifications are likely to be next up for Foster, but he will know that he cannot overlook any opponent, while promoter Bob Arum will likely be encouraging the Champion to try and impress after some of the bigger names under his promotional banner have failed to do that in 2024.

Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson underperformed and they will say the same themselves, but O'Shaquie Foster has shown he can get on the front foot when he has needed to.

Whether that is going to be the case on Friday is another matter though- the feeling is that Foster can box and keep Abraham Nova at a relatively comfortable distance.

However, there will be some who will point out the fact that Nova was Stopped by Robeisy Ramirez at a lower weight Division and O'Shaquie Foster should be much more comfortable at the Super Featherweight limit. He has shown he hits hard enough and the feeling is that Foster may feel he needs to do a bit more to make sure he is making positive headlines.

I can see a situation where O'Shaquie Foster is very much in control of this fight and breaking down Abraham Nova.

This should see him just feel a little more comfortable to turn the screw late on and backing O'Shaquie Foster to find a Stoppage in the second half of the bout looks a decent way to approach this one.

The chief support on the undercard looks like it could be something of a firefight when Andres Cortes faces Bryan Chevalier.

The latter comes in with a huge Knock Out record, but he was Stopped in the sole defeat suffered by either man.

Andres Cortes is the home fighter, but this is an opportunity to really try and steal the show and he has spoken about giving the fans what they would want to see.

Bryan Chevalier will be dangerous and will feel he can put a dent in Cortes, but the latter may find the bigger shots against someone who knows what it is like to be Stopped.

Over the last couple of days, there has been a definite surge of money trending towards the Champion and the fighter looking to repeat his success from the first bout.

Not many had given Adrian Curiel much of a chance of the upset, and even fewer would have predicted it would come in the manner it did. A highlight reel KO will always grab the headlines and Curiel turned the Jr Flyweight Division on its head.

He has home advantage this time and the prices are vastly different compared to the first fight with Adrian Curiel hardening into a relatively strong favourite.

However, Sivenathi Nontshinga has a chance to prove that the defeat was nothing more than a blip in his career.

So much hype had been built around the South African who won the IBF World Title in Mexico in a Split Decision.

Winning here will not be easy, but revenge can be earned as long as Nontshinga avoids the kind of punch that ended the first fight. It really was a surprise when you think of the relative lack of KO success that Adrian Curiel has had in his career, while Sivenathi Nontshinga will feel he was in control of the tempo of the fight before things turned badly.

Seeing the drift in prices is a concern and earning a Decision here will not be easy, but a small price on the underdog is the play as Nontshinga looks to get his career back on track.

The chief support in Mexico features the return of Bronco Mauricio Lara who feels a lot older than his 25 years of age.

There is already a lot of miles on the clock thanks to tough bouts in the United Kingdom against Josh Warrington and Leigh Wood, while Lara lost his World Title on the scales before the Decision defeat to Wood.

He has moved up to Super Featherweight and Mauricio Lara is making it clear that his career is far from over.

It is unlikely that Daniel Lugo will be too hard to find and this is a considerable step up for the underdog, one that he tried to take before and was Stopped in a Sixth Round defeat.

Even with that in mind, this is the toughest fight that Lugo will have faced and Mauricio Lara can announce his return with a big, early win.

There are some very interesting fights that can be made in this Division if Mauricio Lara can get back into the mix and that will be what he will be looking to do by stealing some of the headlines with a big performance.

MY PICKS: O'Shaquie Foster to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Andres Cortes to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Sivenathi Nontshinga @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mauricio Lara to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 8-11, + 6.56 Units (31 Units Staked, + 21.16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 16th February)

It is never that much fun watching a match where the fine edges move against the Tennis Picks and especially not in a season where it seems to be happening far more often than it should do.

For example, on Thursday the two Picks from Doha ended up a combined six points fewer than their opponents, but both were beaten in straight sets.

While that is frustrating, it does not help the mood to see the two other selections made win THIRTY more points, yet have to struggle to get over the line. This just sums up the early part of the 2024 season and it just feels like there is very little fortune landing on the side of the Picks.

Bad Picks are not going to be ignored, but it is very strange to see so many dominating the numbers and still not being able to close the door on the matches as would be expected.

Turning around this inconsistent week is still the main ambition to start moving back in a positive direction, but it has been a tough slog. Poor selections would actually be a situation that could be resolved, but it is much harder to find the changes needed when so many players have been a point or two away from doing what is expected of them, only to then blow matches by losing the big points time after time.

Below you can see my early selections from the Quarter Final/Semi Final matches to be played at the four tournaments running this week.

Any further Picks from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach will be added to the thread on Friday morning.

Marcos Giron - 3.5 games v Patrick Kypson: It has been a positive time back in the United States for Marcos Giron who reached the Final in Dallas last week and has maintained strong form in Delray Beach.

With big events to come up in Indian Wells and Miami, Marcos Giron has to be feeling very good about where his tennis is right now.

Facing up against Patrick Kypson will be a challenge considering the young American has won a Challenger event in Cleveland in early February and he has won two matches here in Delray Beach. Taking full advantage of his Wild Card, Patrick Kypson has won back to back matches in straight sets and he has a serve that can be very dangerous.

The numbers have only slightly dipped when Patrick Kypson has faced top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months and so this is a match that Marcos Giron has to take very seriously.

However, the veteran in this match up has been playing at a really high level and that could be too much for Patrick Kypson to deal with over the length of time needed on the court.

If he serves well, Patrick Kypson will pose a threat, but Marcos Giron has been in strong returning form over the last couple of weeks and may find the breaks he needs to cover this line.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It has been a really strong run in the first two Middle East tournaments for Elena Rybakina and she is continuing to exert plenty of pressure on her opponents.

Serving as well as she has been, Elena Rybakina will be looking to keep that going against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The latter has had a strong run in the tournament too, but has not been nearly as convincing in her performances- the fine margins are landing in Pavlyuchenkova's side of the court, but she is going to need more than that if she is going to upset the World Number 4.

It is a big spread and especially if Pavlyuchenkova serves as well as she can.

An aggressive style is dangerous if Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is feeling her tennis, but you do have to feel that the match is going to be played on the Rybakina racquet.

Over the last couple of weeks, Elena Rybakina has not just been winning matches, but she has been winning matches really well and she can earn a measure of revenge for a French Open defeat to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in May 2021.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Alexander Shevchenko: He is 23 years old and heading back towards a career high World Ranking so the confidence will be in a pretty good place before Alexander Shevchenko thinks about what he will consider to be the best win of his career.

The Second Round saw Shevchenko get the better of Holger Rune and he has shown solid resliency this week in Rotterdam by winning both matches as an underdog. Both have been won in a final set decider too and that will give Shevchenko the belief that he is never out of this Quarter Final.

He is up against veteran Grigor Dimitrov who has enjoyed a very strong start to 2024.

Last week he came up short in the Marseille Final, but Dimitrov won a title last month and he has looked in pretty good nick in his two wins in Rotterdam.

The serve is expected to be an important weapon after Alexander Shevchenko struggled with his returning consistency against Holger Rune.

It is a big spread when you consider how Alexander Shevchenko has been serving in Rotterdam, but the scoreboard pressure could help Dimitrov reach yet another Semi Final on the Tour in 2024.

Tommy Paul - 1.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The only addition from the remaining Quarter Finals in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires is this selection from the opening match in Florida.

Two players who have been enjoying playing the hard court events in the United States meet in this Quarter Final and both Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul have to be feeling good about the tennis being played.

Tommy Paul won the title in Dallas last week and earned a Bye through to the Second Round in Delray Beach- his three hour win over Alex Michelsen may have sapped some of the energy, and that time spent on court is the one factor that has to reduce enthusiasm for the pick.

He is also facing an opponent in Jordan Thompson who has been winning matches with a real level of comfort over the last two weeks, although the Australian may have benefited from the draws to some extent. Three of the four wins he has produced in Dallas and Delray Beach have been against opponents Ranked Number 149 or even lower down the Rankings, although the win over Dan Evans deserves some respect.

It does mean Jordan Thompson is 4-4 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024 and his return game remains a relative weakness that can be exploited by Tommy Paul as long as he is still holding some energy in reserve.

The Thompson serve is a big weapon, but it did falter a couple of times in his defeat to Ben Shelton last week and Tommy Paul is a better return player compared with his compatriot. Of course he has played a lot more tennis than most in the last couple of weeks and that could show up, but Tommy Paul looks in a position to earn his first victory over Jordan Thompson on the Tour having lost their previous meeting on a grass court in the Netherlands.

Big serving should shorten the points and that should help Tommy Paul as he bids to reach another Semi Final on the United States hard courts.

MY PICKS: Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.42 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 16th)

It has not been a very good week for the Tennis Picks at all, but I have also been on the wrong end of some poor fortune.

Ultimately I have to hold my hands up and say it has not been good enough, but Wednesday offers a chance to turn things around.

Any selections from Delray Beach or Rio will be added to this post.

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Jill Teichmann: It says plenty about the quality of the field at any tournament that someone Ranked at Number 35 has to come through the Qualifiers to take part in the main draw. That is the case for Jill Teichmann, although she benefited as one of the Lucky Losers from the final Qualifying Round to earn her spot in the draw in Dubai.

The Swiss player has taken full advantage of that by beating Elise Mertens in the First Round, but Jill Teichmann is going to have to win more big matches if she is going to have a deep run here. Performances in 2022 has shown that Jill Teichmann is not intimidated by facing the better players on the Tour, although she has not been able to find the consistency she has needed to win those matches.

In saying that, the hard court numbers before this event in Dubai have been less than impressive as Jill Teichmann has found her second serve and her return game put under some pressure. The second serve could be a problem in this match, but I think the left hander should have a bit more success on the return against what has been a vulnerable Elina Svitolina serve, although perhaps not enough success for Teichmann to be able to earn the upset.

Elina Svitolina may have missed her window to win a Grand Slam, and she has slipped outside the top 10 of the World Rankings after a disappointing Australian summer. Like Jill Teichmann, Elina Svitolina played well in her First Round match here and was relatively comfortable in progressing through to the Second Round, while her overall hard court numbers in 2022 have been slightly more convincing than her opponents.

Both previous matches between these players have come on the clay courts, but in both Elina Svitolina has battered the Jill Teichmann second serve. The matches have been split 1-1, but the Ukrainian player has looked the better player in both and I do think the hard courts suit her game a little more than for Teichmann.

The first serve should be important to both players, but Elina Svitolina has shown a little more ability to protect the second serve and has the superior returning numbers. While I expect Jill Teichmann to have her moments throughout this match, Elina Svitolina can do enough to win and cover this mark.

Simona Halep - 6.5 games v Elena Ruse: I still think there is a Grand Slam or two that Simona Halep can win before she calls time on her career, but the 30 year old has the first ambition of trying to make her way back up the World Rankings. She has started 2022 on fire and Simona Halep was a comfortable winner over Alison Riske in the First Round to continue what has been a largely dominant run to open the season.

A couple of disappointing setbacks will have concerned Simona Halep, but her tennis should be well suited to the quick conditions most players face in Dubai. Her serve was working particularly well in the win over Alison Riske and it could have come by a much wider score on the board if Halep had taken all of the chances she had created.

There might be something of an inferiority complex on the court for this Second Round match too and that can be understandable as Elena Ruse takes on a compatriot at a relatively early stage of her own career. Elena Ruse would likely have looked up to Simona Halep and she has only recently hit her career best World Ranking of Number 59, which is someway below the level that Halep operates at.

Mentally it will be a challenge for Ruse, but she has come through the Qualifiers and earned a win over Paula Badosa in the First Round. It has to give the younger Romanian plenty of confidence having never beaten a top 20 Ranked opponent before, while Elena Ruse has struggled in most aspects of her tennis when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

The 24 year old may be improving, but she has struggled in her two matches against Simona Halep which have been played over the last four months. Both were on hard courts and Simona Halep lost a total of six games across four sets these two have competed in, something that may underline the point I made about there being a mental obstacle for the younger player to overcome.

Elena Ruse has struggled with her serve and barely been able to get into the Simona Halep service games in those losses and I think that may be the same in Dubai. The quicker conditions could give Ruse a chance to put more pressure on Halep, but any rally will likely end in advantage to the former World Number 1 and I will look for Simona Halep to win by a good margin against her compatriot yet again.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (February 16th)

We are down to the final eight players in both the Men's and Women's draws at the Australian Open and there look to be some fantastic matches that are still in front of us.

The Men's draw have put together at least three top quality looking matches that would have made plenty of appeal before a ball had been tossed in the tournament, while the Women's draw has been a mix of the elite and those ready to break into that conversation.

With a few days left before we get to the end of the tournament, I think both titles look open to all of the remaining players and they should all have some belief they can go on and pick up the trophies on offer over the weekend. I am pretty comfortable with the positioning of the Outright Selections with only two of the players selected going out of the tournament before the Quarter Final, but there is still work for those to do if they are going to provide a positive return.

The Tennis Picks have yet to really recover from what was a terrible couple of days over the Second Round, but there is time to turn things around and produce a positive return. Momentum is trending in a relatively decent direction, but the next couple of days will be important as matches run down.

We have four Quarter Finals set to be played on Day 9 and four more on Day 10 and I think it is going to be very enjoyable for the viewers. All of the Singles matches will now be played on the Rod Laver Arena with a couple during the day and a couple in the Night Session and my thoughts on those four matches from Day 9 can be read below.

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Aslan Karatsev: It looked like the dream run at the Australian Open was going to come to an end for Aslan Karatsev in the Fourth Round a couple of days ago, but the recovery from 2-0 down in sets to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime has given the rank outsider another few days in Melbourne.

A whole host of streaks have been ended by this run- Aslan Karatsev is the first Qualifier to reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open since 1991 and also the first Qualifier to make the Quarter Final of any Grand Slam since 2011. Add in the fact that he is the first debutant to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam in twenty-five years and the Russian has made a new name for himself.

For tennis fans the name has largely been associated with the darker side of the sport and that is something that is going to have a light shone on it the longer Aslan Karatsev is in the main draw. It will also be a potential story that follows him around in the coming months when he will become a regular on the main ATP Tour, but the focus has to be continuing his 'nothing to lose' attitude on the court and his numbers in the Australian Open have been staggering.

So far in the tournament Aslan Karatsev has only dropped two sets and he has held 88% of service games played, while the return has been a real threat with 41% of return games ending in a break of serve. These are stunning numbers compared to his previous successes on the main Tour, but the Russian has used his run of wins on the Challenger Tour to pick up his level on this grand stage and I think it will be a tough match for Grigor Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian may have missed his best chance to win a Grand Slam, but Dimitrov won't believe that and his straight sets win over US Open Champion Dominic Thiem in the Fourth Round will be encouraging and confidence building. He has yet to drop a set in the tournament and Grigor Dimitrov has held just under 94% of service games played and broken in 43% of return games which gives him a slight edge over the underdog.

Much could depend on how much emotional energy Aslan Karatsev used up in his win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round. It is never easy to back up a win in five sets when you have to come from 0-2 behind and Dominic Thiem found that out against Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round.

While the numbers are strong, I do think you have to factor in the amount of break points that Karatsev has faced in this tournament. Both of these players are creating plenty of chances, but Grigor Dimitrov has not faced as many as Aslan Karatsev across the last three Rounds and I do think his experience at this level could be crucial.

The Australian Open has had a habit of finding a surprise player that can force their way through the draw, but I think this is where the Aslan Karatsev run will come to an end. Grigor Dimitrov will have to ride out some rough moments, but the feeling is that he will have the physical and emotional edge that can see him back up what have been stronger numbers so far in this tournament of the two players.

I think it will see Grigor Dimitrov to win this in either three or, more likely, four sets as he reaches a fourth Grand Slam Semi Final and the second time in Melbourne.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: After reaching the US Open Final in September and the Semi Final at the Australian Open last year, Alexander Zverev has made short work of the four opponents he has faced in the tournament this year. At 23 years old the German looks like he is ready to take the next step in his development, although we will see how Zverev responds to a much bigger challenge than he would have seen in the tournament so far.

None of the four wins have come against a player Ranked inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but Alexander Zverev will still be feeling good about his chances, especially in light of some of the Novak Djokovic struggles.

An injury in the third set in the Third Round against Taylor Fritz meant Novak Djokovic had to bite down on the gum shield and come through in five sets, but there were all kinds of rumours and suggestions as to the seriousness of the injury. At the time Djokovic suggested he had torn a muscle which may have prevented him taking the court in the Fourth Round, but he didn't just play against Milos Raonic but also deservedly come through in four sets.

Since then he has refused to discuss the 'tear' any more, but there was nothing to suggest he was overly hindered in the Fourth Round and the feeling is that it was the shock and uncertainty which saw him limp over the line in the Third Round. Last time out Novak Djokovic was only broken once by Milos Raonic and he won a healthy amount of return points which has restored the World Number 1 and eight time Australian Open Champion to favouritism to win this tournament.

Both players have produced strong numbers in the tournament behind serve, but I have to be impressed with the Alexander Zverev returning compared with Novak Djokovic. However it would be foolish to ignore the kind of opponents each have faced and I do think the numbers would be flipped back over if these two swapped opponents.

Much depends on how Novak Djokovic is feeling- if he is close to 100% he will be leaning on the 5-2 head to head advantage he has over Alexander Zverev which becomes 4-1 when only considering their hard court meetings. One of those came in Melbourne last week as Djokovic deservedly beat Zverev in three sets at the ATP Cup where the World Number 1 faced a single break point compared with the six he created.

Their head to head numbers are heavily skewed in favour of Novak Djokovic who has held 90% of the service games played against Alexander Zverev on hard courts, while restricting his younger opponent to a 74% hold percentage in those matches. The only doubt is the injury from the Third Round, but Novak Djokovic has had some time to manage any pain he is still feeling and I think he is likely to win this one in four sets.

With the advantage Novak Djokovic has on the return of serve when these two have met on the hard courts, I think he can cover this handicap mark too on his way to yet another Semi Final at the Australian Open.

Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka over 18.5 games: When you look at the style of the two players taking to the court you have to feel that Naomi Osaka is always going to overpower Su-Wei Hsieh and not allow the latter to even begin her bamboozling style which has earned many an upset win over the year. Su-Wei Hsieh has all of the shots, but ultimately Naomi Osaka can play first strike tennis and feel like she can take control of the match, although the aggressive approach is always a risky one if not feeling your best on the court.

The underdog has already beaten two top 20 Ranked players in this tournament, although one of those was against Bianca Andreescu who had not played in any competitive tournament since the end of 2019. Even then it was an impressive win for Su-Wei Hsieh who has only dropped a single set in her four wins so far in the tournament.

Unsurprisingly, Su-Wei Hsieh's returning numbers are the ones that catch the eye, but I have been pretty impressed with her serving for the most part too. While not as dominant as some of the big hitting players on the Tour, Hsieh has been looking after her serve to the extent that only Sara Errani has managed to earn more than six break points against her in the four matches played and that will be encouraging for the underdog.

Naomi Osaka is likely going to test that with 46% of return points won in the tournament and that despite playing opponents like Garbine Muguruza, Caroline Garcia and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who could all be considered solid servers. She has created at least seven break points in every match played in the tournament and she doubled that total in the win over Muguruza in the Fourth Round and now Naomi Osaka has to be feeling pretty confident with three Grand Slams won across the Australian and US Opens.

The conditions in Melbourne have felt faster than recent years and this match is being played in the middle of the day when the ball should move the quickest. That will be encouraging to Naomi Osaka who has produced some stunning service numbers at the Australian Open, although the last two opponents have had more success than the first two did.

Su-Wei Hsieh has lost four of the previous five matches against Naomi Osaka and they will be meeting each other for the first time since August 2019. However I do think it should be noted how close those previous matches have been despite Naomi Osaka getting the better of the majority of them and all three previous hard court matches have gone the distance.

The surprising numbers are how well Su-Wei Hsieh has served in those three matches and she has actually created more break points in two of those matches than Naomi Osaka has managed to create. She has won 40% of return points against the Osaka serve and Su-Wei Hsieh could make this a closer match than most anticipate if she can begin to get a read of where Naomi Osaka is targeting and drag her into some longer rallies.

Most are expecting a blow out for the Japanese player, but I think Hsieh can contribute to this match and it may go longer than most are predicting.

Serena Williams-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There are some tremendous Quarter Final matches that are going to take place at the Australian Open over the next couple of days, but on Tuesday this Women's Quarter Final looks like the match of the day. Both Serena Williams and Simona Halep have won multiple Grand Slam titles, although the former has obviously dominated the sport to the point where she is one Slam away from matching Margaret Court's record number of Singles titles.

That has been the case since Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2017 and while she has reached the Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open since then, her best run at Melbourne has been the Quarter Final in 2019. Last year she was upset in the Third Round and Serena Williams need to knuckle down and use all of her experience to beat Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round over the weekend.

The experience is invaluable, but it won't be enough to see off Simona Halep who beat Serena Williams in their most recent meeting- Williams has a 9-2 head to head advantage, but it was the underdog Halep who won the Wimbledon Final when these two met in July 2019 and the former World Number 1 is someone who will play her game and try and dictate the direction the match takes rather than hoping Serena Williams is off her game.

Simona Halep also needed three sets to get through her Fourth Round match against Iga Swiatek and Halep has been serving well enough to only offer up seven break points across her last two wins. She hasn't been very good at saving them with four ending up being converted into breaks of serve, but Simona Halep also has a very effective return and she will be playing with some belief in her own game.

Returning has also been a strength for Serena Williams in this tournament with 49% of those played being won, and she will be well aware that she is going to see a lot more balls in this one compared to the last match against the big hitting Belarusian Sabalenka. That will give Williams a chance to get into attack mode and try and avoid the longer rallies which could see her wear down physically against someone like Halep.

For Simona Halep the key will be to try and get enough first serves in to prevent Williams from doing that, while she will also need to be effective against the second serves she is facing. In this tournament players have had successes attacking the Serena second serve and those two aspects for vital for the Romanian in her convincing win over Williams in the Wimbledon Final.

Serena Williams has won the last six between these two on a hard court and that includes wins at the US Open and Australian Open. However both matches have needed to go the distance and the match here in the Fourth Round two years ago was very close and could easily have ended up in a Simona Halep win on another day.

In both of those hard court Grand Slam matches, Simona Halep has served well enough to stay with Serena Williams and at this stage of her career I do think the former has a real chance. The layers feel the same with this being a pick 'em match, but regardless of the winner it would be a surprise if there aren't some twists and turns which could see the match going long in terms of the total games being played.

Even a competitive two setter could see the line covered and in the conditions and with the way both have been playing I think this will be a tight match. At the end of it all I think the Serena Williams first serve may prove to be the key to the outcome of the match, but I would not be surprised if this is another meeting between the two players that needs to go the distance to be decided in Melbourne and I will look for that to be the main outcome of the match.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka Over 18.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Serena Williams-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 40-37, - 3.30 Units (154 Units Staked, - 2.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 16th)

It might have been a busy day on Friday around the four tournaments that are being played this week, but I could only find a couple of matches that I felt comfortable in.

That wasn't a bad decision as both Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils won their Quarter Final matches in Rotterdam without dropping a set and that continues what should be another winning week to put into the books. There are still two days of Tennis to be played to conclude the week and I have no intention of giving anything back after a strong week.

You can see the Picks from the matches scheduled for Saturday below.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: In the last couple of weeks Daniil Medvedev has been a very strong player to back and he has worked out for me with a number of winning selections behind the young Russian. This isn't only a two week hot streak as Medvedev has been in strong form throughout the first six weeks of the 2019 season which has seen him play in two Finals already and looking to make a third this week.

He was a dominant winner over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Quarter Final and Medvedev has deserved to make his way through the Rotterdam draw after winning the title in Sofia. Unlike some other players, Medvedev has not really had an easy path through the last couple of weeks which underlines how well he is playing.

The numbers continue to back that up as Medvedev is looking after serve effectively, while the returning numbers are very strong. In the last week Medvedev has been even stronger on the return than he has been in 2019 overall, and that makes it very dangerous for opponents to face Medvedev when he is seeing the ball like a beach ball at the moment.

So far in Rotterdam Medvedev has broken at just under 38% of the games he has been returning and that is very impressive on the indoor hard courts. Gael Monfils will feel he can challenge Medvedev with the way he has been serving this week, but the overall hold percentage is down to 81% compared with his 84% hold percentage for 2019 on the hard courts.

The Frenchman has responded with some very strong returning to make up for the service slips, but this is a step up from the last two Rounds. It is also the second time in two weeks that Monfils and Medvedev are playing each other and it was Medvedev who I picked to win their match in Sofia and I think he can frank that form as he did when beating Tsonga for the second time in 2019 on Friday.

Daniil Medvedev dominated the return of serve in Sofia and as well as Monfils is playing this week, Medvedev is playing a little better. I think he can use the returning powers he has produced for the season to get the better of Monfils in this one and I think he edges him out with a tough win here and I think Medvedev covers against Monfils again.

He is being asked to cover one more game than he was last week in Sofia, but Medvedev is playing well enough to do that.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: The two tournaments being played in the Middle East in Doha and Dubai on the WTA Tour do bring in some of the very best players on the Tour to these events. With that in mind the players who reach the Final at the these tournaments tend to have come through some tough matches and that is the case for Elise Mertens and Simona Halep who play each other for the title on Saturday.

Both players have had a couple of tough wins and both were forced to win a deciding set in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two matches Simona Halep had to invest more emotional exertions to turn her Semi Final against Elina Svitolina back in her favour having won the final five games in a row to narrowly edge out the Ukrainian.

Elise Mertens did drop the second set in her win over Angelique Kerber, but she won the final set 6-1. However the potential fatigue factor is balanced out by Halep having played the first Semi Final and the Romanian has dominated Mertens in their two previous matches, although both have come on Halep's favoured clay courts.

The feeling in this one is that both players are going to be heavily reliant on their strong returns of serve to put themselves in a position to win the title. Neither has a dominant serve and both Halep and Mertens have seen that side of their game being attacked and I do think the way the two players have been returning will see a number of break points in this one.

In this tournament the edge has to be given to Mertens for the way she has been returning, but she has been a little fortunate at times as opponents have not taken the chances they have created. She can't expect Halep to be that generous considering the former World Number 1 has won 47% of return points played this week and she has also dominated the Mertens serve by winning 57% of points against it in the two matches between these players.

Elise Mertens has been returning very well too which will give her a chance to cover this number of games in this Final. However I think the match up with Halep is yet to be one that Mertens enjoys and her overall hard court numbers have been a little better than average in the last couple of years.

This week still feels like an outlier in terms of her overall hard court ability and I think Halep can break down the Mertens game and cover this number too.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-7, + 15.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 34.39% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 15-18)

There was a real feeling of deflation at around 10pm on Tuesday evening once the Manchester United defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was confirmed, but I really do think that is how far Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has changed the mood at Old Trafford since taking over from Jose Mourinho.

I genuinely believed United could win the First Leg, although I was very much unsure about winning the tie as a whole and it does feel the Champions League race is run.

It is important for the players to remember that they can still make this a very successful season if they can win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premier League, especially when you think where the club were the day Mourinho was sacked.

The FA Cup is up this weekend with the Fifth Round taking centre stage while the Premier League clubs who are out of the competition get a chance to rest and recover for the big League games ahead. There are a number of lower League clubs hosting Premier League teams from Friday through to Sunday and the television companies will select those games for live coverage hoping to be able to find an upset or two. Finally it will be the turn of Chelsea and Manchester United who play on Monday evening just after the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round is made.

That does mean we are not having any Fantasy Selections this week, but those will be back in the thread for the Premier League games next weekend.


Queens Park Rangers v Watford Pick: The opening FA Cup Fifth Round tie comes from Loftus Road on Friday night as one of a number of selected games for live coverage. I am not sure Steve McClaren will be that pleased that his team are being asked to play on Friday considering Queens Park Rangers played in the League on Tuesday, but there isn't a lot the manager can do about that.

It is already a difficult enough challenge for Queens Park Rangers to take on a Premier League opponent, but Watford should be well rested having been in action last Saturday. However trying to second guess the manager is not easy and Javi Gracia making wholesale changes as he has done in the first couple of FA Cup ties will perhaps leave Watford a little vulnerable in this one.

Loftus Road is not an easy venue to play at and through the last few years where Queens Park Rangers have been struggling a number of big clubs have visited here without success. Those have come in League games as Queens Park Rangers have had miserable Cup records, but McClaren's men have won both FA Cup ties at home against Leeds United and Portsmouth and will believe they can make it a hat-trick on Friday.

Queens Park Rangers have scored a huge amount of goals at home over the last couple of months and they have managed at least two in 7 of their last 9 here in all competitions. That certainly makes them dangerous and confident of causing an upset and Watford will have to be on their toes to avoid that.

The Premier League team can be encouraged if they watched Queens Park Rangers concede four goals in home losses to Preston North End and Birmingham City in recent weeks. Watford have also been a team who have scored plenty of goals in away games since early December and I have a feeling we are going to be given an entertaining game on Friday evening.

I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous in this one, but Queens Park Rangers and Watford have shown they can score plenty of goals at home/away respectively. Neither has looked defensively sound either and I am surprised to see three or more goals being scored priced up at odds against.

My feeling is that Watford may just do enough to win here with fatigue perhaps seeing Queens Park Rangers tire after League exertions on Tuesday evening, but the Premier League club look plenty short at odds on to win. Backing goals looks a more appealing price all in all and that will be my selection from this Fifth Round tie.


Brighton v Derby County Pick: This FA Cup Fifth Round tie is a tough one to try and predict what the managers of both Brighton and Derby County will be thinking considering League matters are the priority for both Chris Hughton and Frank Lampard.

In recent weeks Brighton have slumped back towards the bottom three thanks to teams below them improving and the 1-3 home defeat to Burnley was a big blow to them. You would think they still have enough to avoid relegation, but Hughton will be aware of their slide and I do wonder if that comes into his thinking when selecting a team ahead of big Premier League games to come.

The bonus for the manager is the fact that Brighton are not due out again until a week on Tuesday because their League game with Chelsea is postponed next week as The Blues are playing in the League Cup Final. They've had plenty of time to get players ready for this one and it may mean Chris Hughton selects a strong team in a bid to rediscover the winning feeling which has been lost.

All season Frank Lampard has picked strong teams in the Cups for Derby County and he has been rewarded with some big performances. They have drawn 2-2 at both Manchester United and Southampton in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively and both times Derby County were able to win on penalties, while The Rams also pushed Chelsea in the League Cup at Stamford Bridge in what was an eventual 3-2 defeat.

The players won't be overawed by this occasion either, but Derby County have played a game during the week while Brighton were resting and have another big League game to come on Wednesday. That does potentially impact the team selection for the visitors and makes the prices look hard to oppose.

I was keen on selecting Derby County with a start on the Asian Handicap, but the schedule spot looks to favour Brighton who are also at home. What Derby County can do is give their hosts something to think about and the fact they have scored at least two goals at three Premier League grounds in the Cup already this season will give the fans belief that an upset can be created.

A lack of Brighton goals is a worry for Chris Hughton, but Derby County don't defend as well as they would like away from home and we may see goals in this one. The weather looks good for football this weekend and I do think the two teams can expose vulnerabilities the other has in defensive areas to make this another FA Cup Fifth Round tie that does have at least three goals shared out this weekend. 


AFC Wimbledon v Millwall Pick: There won't be too many times clubs like AFC Wimbledon and Millwall will have the kind of opportunity to make the Quarter Final of the FA Cup as the one they are presented with this weekend.

Both sets of fans have seen their clubs have success in the FA Cup in the past and both upset Premier League clubs at home in the Fourth Round to earn their spot in this tie, but there will be a different feeling around this one. With just two wins between them and a stunning outing at Wembley Stadium the players will look to put their relegation battles in League One and the Championship respectively aside for this weekend.

In the last Round neither club were under pressure to win, but I do think AFC Wimbledon and Millwall players will have a different feeling for this one. Knowing they have a very winnable tie in front of them to reach a FA Cup Quarter Final is going to be the distraction they need to avoid to make sure each player is doing the job assigned to him and I do think this is a very close one to call.

The obvious favourite is Millwall considering they are twenty-nine places higher up the League standings than AFC Wimbledon. However you can't ignore how poorly Millwall have played away from home during this entire season and the results are not exactly the kind you would want to see from an odds on shot to win a game of football.

Millwall have perhaps been unfortunate in some of those games, but they have to be feeling the pressure a little more than AFC Wimbledon who will still believe they can use the underdog spirit to shock their higher League opponents. That pressure may have affected Millwall in a 1-0 loss to League One strugglers Rochdale in the FA Cup last season when Millwall were playing much higher up the Championship at that time and I do think they are vulnerable as the favourites.

It is hard to back an AFC Wimbledon team who have not scored enough goals and who have lost to the likes of Sunderland and Burton Albion since the win over West Ham United. Both of those clubs came down from the Championship and Millwall should have a clear edge in terms of quality in this one too.

However the situation of the fixture and AFC Wimbledon having nothing to lose gives them every chance of the upset. It can't be ignored that Millwall have struggled for away wins and the players know the weight of expectation is on them, while that 1-0 loss at Rochdale last season shows they may potentially struggle to cope with that.

Backing AFC Wimbledon with the start looks the way to go in this one as they can at least force Extra Time before they perhaps fade against a team from a higher Division. The first goal will be critical for them and if AFC Wimbledon get that I do think they will avoid defeat within the ninety minutes.


Newport County v Manchester City Pick: It might be a football game where eleven play eleven, but I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to see Manchester City as a huge favourite to beat Newport County and move through to the FA Cup Quarter Final for the second time under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.

The 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic twelve months ago has really been something that Guardiola has not forgotten and that has seen him pick strong teams in the domestic Cup competitions as they have made progression on four fronts. Heavy wins over the likes of Oxford United, Burton Albion and Rotherham United from the lower Leagues shows what Manchester City can do even when they make a few changes to the starting eleven and the squad depth is actually pretty scary.

In this one you can expect to see seasoned internationals like Danilo and Nicolas Otamendi playing in defensive areas, while Fabian Delph played at the World Cup last summer and also could come in. Both Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus are players who terrorise opponents in the Premier League so all the quality is with Manchester City and it is going to need to be a serious off day for them to lose here.

Newport County can't be completely dismissed though- a lot of the big Manchester City wins over lower League opponents have come at the Etihad Stadium where the playing surface is a carpet. Rodney Parade is far from that and it might just take a bit of time for the visitors to adjust to their surroundings.

The League Two club have beaten Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Leicester City in the FA Cup at home over the last thirteen months. Tottenham Hotspur needed an 82nd minute Harry Kane equaliser to force a Replay last season, but Manchester City don't have the same luxury with this tie needing to be completed on Saturday evening.

With that in mind I expect a slightly stronger team than the one that played and won 0-1 at Burton Albion in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg last month. Even that Manchester City team had the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero playing, but I don't think this team will be littered with the Academy players like that Second Leg line up was.

It should mean Manchester City win pretty easily on the day, but they are being asked to cover a very big handicap on a playing surface that is not easy to deal with. A Newport County goal can't be ruled out as they load the box and look for set pieces to try and disrupt Manchester City, but at the end of the day the Premier League leaders should be comfortable enough.

Comfortable means matching the wins at Oxford United and Burton Albion in the League Cup earlier this season. Manchester City won 0-3 and 0-1 on those days and I think this one is likely to be closer to the former scoreline. In the win at Oxford United, Manchester City scored twice in the final twelve minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline and I have a feeling something similar is going to happen here.

For the first 45 minutes I can see Newport County having the energy to chase their runners but I am expecting them to tire against a relentless Manchester City team. It's looking like a dry weekend so the pitch won't cut up too much and it feels Manchester City will wear down their opponents and then pull away in the second half so backing the second period to be the higher scoring half is my selection.

In the League Cup wins over Oxford United and Burton Albion at home, as well as the FA Cup wins over Rotherham United and Burnley, Manchester City scored more goals in the second half than the first. At just under odds on I think that happens here, while so looking at in-play markets may back a goal to be scored in the final ten minutes if the prices suit.


Bristol City v Wolves Pick: The first live FA Cup tie on Sunday afternoon comes from Ashton Gate and this has all the makings of a really interesting Fifth Round meeting between Bristol City and Wolves. Neither team has made it through to the latter stages of the FA Cup for a long time now and the players have to be smelling the opportunity of really making this a memorable season in the competition even if the priority for both may be finishing as high as possible in their respective Divisions.

Lee Johnson and Nuno Espirito Santo have six days to prepare their teams for their next League fixtures though and I think the managers will appreciate the chance in front of Bristol City and Wolves respectively.

Bristol City have been in fine form of late too with 9 straight wins in all competitions and they have been scoring plenty of goals at Ashton Gate. That will give them the belief they can find a way past Wolves having beaten Premier League Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this season and last season seeing off the likes of Stoke City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Ashton Gate in the League Cup on their way to the Semi Final.

That makes them dangerous and this is going to be a tough test for a Wolves team who may be pretty good defensively, but who don't earn a lot of clean sheets. Wolves needed to come from 2-0 down to earn a late draw with Shrewsbury Town in the initial FA Cup Fourth Round tie away from home, but they have won 0-2 at Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup and much will depend on what kind of team the manager selects.

Even a full strength Wolves team will be tested, but they have shown they can turn on the style away from home and picking a winner is not easy. The chances of seeing Extra Time can't be ignored, but Bristol City and Wolves tend to be involved in entertaining games over the last three seasons and that trend being continued suggests there will be a winner in normal time.

The last 5 between these clubs have all ended with at least three goals shared out and 2 of those have come at Ashton Gate. 3 of those 5 games have featured at least four goals and both teams have scored in each of those fixtures.

I do think both teams will score here and the 1-1 is perhaps the one scoreline that will let me down with my selection. However I think both teams will really want to go for this and it could mean an open, attacking game of football that features at least three or more goals shared out as Bristol City and Wolves have done in recent meetings against each other.

That's an odds against shot here and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Fifth Round tie.


Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace Pick: The second of the live televised games in the FA Cup on Sunday comes from the Keepmoat Stadium as Doncaster Rovers try and upset Premier League Crystal Palace. That is something the television companies will be looking for in this tie and the home team are in good enough form to believe they can bridge the gap to a Premier League opponent.

Being at home is the key for Doncaster Rovers who are unbeaten in 10 in front of their own fans in all competitions and they have won 8 of those games. Goals have been flowing at home with at least two scored in each of those 10 fixtures and Doncaster Rovers have something of a reputation of being able to upset higher League clubs over the last few years.

It won't be easy to knock off a Crystal Palace team who have been scoring a lot more goals away from home than they do at Selhurst Park. Part of the reason is that teams come onto their in front of their own fans and that has left spaces for a pacy front three to exploit, but it doesn't feel like Doncaster Rovers will be playing with that kind of attacking intent in mind.

Yes I do think Doncaster Rovers will get forward and try and rattle their Premier League opponents, but they will also respect the fact that they are not favourites and so will also be making sure they don't give too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack.

The mentality of the Crystal Palace players will be the key to how well they do on Sunday- if they are fully focused and respect Doncaster Rovers you would expect them to win, but Bristol City and Middlesbrough have knocked out The Eagles from domestic Cup competitions under Roy Hodgson. Both of those losses came away from home so Doncaster Rovers could come close to upsetting them too with the Premier League the priority for the former England manager.

Crystal Palace do have a week before they are back in League action so they can pick a strong team and this feels like yet another Cup tie this weekend that is going to see a lower League club contribute to a high-scoring game against a Premier League one. I did consider backing Doncaster Rovers with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap, but my overriding feeling is that is going to be a push as the visitors edge through by scoring the majority of the three goals shared out on Sunday.

I do think Doncaster Rovers will play their part, but they may also leave themselves open if they begin chasing the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Cup tie in England this weekend.


Swansea City v Brentford Pick: Both Swansea City and Brentford have to be looking at this FA Cup Fifth Round tie and really believing they have an excellent chance to not only reach the Quarter Final, but with the right draw could also play at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final.

A maximum of six Premier League clubs can make the Last Eight in the FA Cup this season and with the way the Third and Fourth Round have gone I don't think anyone will be surprised if a couple more than expected were to be beaten in the Fifth Round.

It would really open the door for the winner of this tie depending on the draw on Monday and I think that does create some pressure on the players. At least the Swansea City players have the experience of playing in the Quarter Final eleven months ago and I do believe home advantage is going to see them edge out Brentford in this one.

The Bees have improved away from home in the last couple of months, but they are still a team who struggle to produce wins on their travels. On the other hand Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5 games at the Liberty Stadium and Graham Potter has them playing some very good football here.

Swansea City have a good record against Brentford at home, but host them for the first time in over ten years. They did win 2-3 at Griffin Park to give them a slight mental advantage in this Fifth Round tie and I think Swansea City are going to edge it.

I will not be surprised if this is yet another high-scoring FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I give Swansea City enough of an edge to back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Home advantage should just see the pendulum swing in their favour and Swansea City's run of 3 wins in 4 games here can be extended to put their name into the draw for the Quarter Final.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw for the Fifth Round of the FA Cup was made there was only one tie that leaped off the page and it has been selected for live television coverage on Monday evening. A part of the problem was the Chelsea participation in the Europa League on Thursday evening, but that isn't going to make Manchester United fans feel any better having to travel to London for a late Monday night fixture.

The fans are secondary to the television money will come as no surprise to those who regularly attend matches, but there isn't much you can do about that now.

On the field the fixture looks to be coming at a better time for Chelsea than it does for Manchester United despite the fact the visitors have had two extra days to prepare for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie. Unfortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United are coming off a loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League which has really burst what had been a positive bubble for the club.

Bouncing back would have been much more likely if both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard were available, but muscle injuries suffered last Tuesday means they are unlikely to be risked here. It gives Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku another opportunity to impress after both were key to the win over Arsenal in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the Emirates Stadium last month, but neither has really been a big part of the Solskjaer plans and may be under pressure to deliver.

Chelsea may have played on Thursday and they may not be long off the embarrassing loss to Manchester City in the Premier League, but a win in Malmo would have just eased some tensions. They have also been in much better form at home in the last six weeks than on their travels and Chelsea have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge while scoring two or more goals in each of those.

The Blues also have a very strong recent record against Manchester United with 9 games unbeaten against them at Stamford Bridge. They've also won the last 4 FA Cup ties between the clubs including beating Manchester United 1-0 in each of the last two seasons (one Quarter Final and one Final). That has to give them belief they can make it a hat-trick here, but Manchester United can play their part and offer a threat on the counter attack as they did at the Emirates Stadium last month.

Both teams will be looking to get on the front foot and for me Chelsea look short considering they have shown signs of being a team that drop heads when they fall behind. If United were at full strength I would fancy them to win here, but the injuries may just have come at the wrong time.

I still expect a reaction from the players after the 0-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Manchester United should have their chances on the counter attack. With Chelsea being in better form at home this could be a decent FA Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy on Monday evening too, and I think it is going to be one that produces at least three goals.

In recent seasons games between Manchester United and Chelsea have been tight affairs, but the outlook and approach of the two managers suggests this one will be different. A Jose Mourinho led Manchester United team scored twice here back in October and Ole Gunner Solskjaer is going to want his team to get forward.

There remain serious defensive issues that can be exploited by Chelsea too though and I think both teams will hit at least one goal in this one. Neither manager will want to settle for Extra Time or penalties so I imagine a positive game develops through much of the evening and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.

MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Sporting Bet
Brighton-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor
AFC Wimbledon + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Newport County-Manchester City Second Half Highest Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Bristol City-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power
Doncaster Rovers-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Paddy Power