Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 19th February)

We are moving into the business end of the tournaments that have been scheduled for this week and more retirements in Dubai will lead to more questions.

The final eight names in the WTA 1000 event are surprising in the main, and the Quarter Final matches look tough to call.

You can say the same for the Quarter Finals in Doha with one selection made from that tournament and one from the remaining Second Round matches scheduled in Delray Beach.

Any selections from the ATP Rio tournament will be added to this thread and the weekly totals will also be updated once the full results from Wednesday are in.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The World Number 1 has not been at his very best in the ATP Doha tournament, but Carlos Alcaraz will be comfortable with the level he has been producing to move through to the Quarter Final.

He arrived after completing the career Grand Slam with the title at the Australian Open, but credit has to be given to Alcaraz for stating there is still more development to improve his tennis.

It is a desire that could see Carlos Alcaraz competing for Grand Slam titles for many years to come and he will be seen as the player to beat at the remaining Slams to be played in 2026.

Strong numbers have been produced on the hard courts since the start of the 2024 season and Carlos Alcaraz is developing the serve, which is going to make it even easier for him to put opponents under pressure. It has been a strong weapon for him over the last couple of years, but the early signs are that Alcaraz is going to have an even better serve in 2026 and that will allow him to play with some real aggression on the return.

He will be challenged in this Quarter Final by a big hitting, aggressive player in Karen Khachanov who gave Carlos Alcaraz all he could handle in a tight defeat at the Rome Masters on the clay last season.

The World Number 17 has needed to go the full three sets in both opening wins in Doha, but he will be glad the conditions will offer his first serve some support. That is going to be vital for Karen Khachanov to see if he can keep Carlos Alcaraz under considerable pressure and look for that to dictate how the Spaniard responds.

However, Karen Khachanov will also be aware that he cannot afford to allow too many looks at his second serve against a return player like Carlos Alcaraz who will be looking to control rallies from the opening shot played.

Karen Khachanov is not having nearly as much success as Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to the return game and that will put more pressure on his serve. He has held almost 90% of service games played on the hard courts this season, which will give Khachanov real belief, but the highest Ranked opponent faced in 2026 is the World Number 25 and this is a considerably tougher test against the Australian Open Champion.

In the previous five matches on the Tour, Carlos Alcaraz has a huge edge in terms of Breaks of serve put together and the Spaniard may be able to push through and find the Breaks needed to cover this relatively big line.

Taylor Fritz - 3.5 games v Rafael Jodar: The 19 year old Spaniard is going to be improving his World Ranking again at the end of the tournament in Delray Beach, but he will be looking to crack the top 100 for the first time.

Rafael Jodar will need an upset over the top Seed in the tournament and that may be asking too much of him at this stage of the career.

The numbers produced over the last twelve months on the hard courts are impressive- Jodar has won 77% of the matches played with over fifty wins produced, while he has held 81% of service games played and broken in 32% of return games.

However, those numbers have largely been built on dominating lower Ranked opponents and Rafael Jodar is 2-2 over the last twelve months against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts. His serve has been attacked relentlessly by the better players on the Tour and Taylor Fritz can certainly put the youngster under pressure, even with a limited return game.

Taylor Fritz is very comfortable on the hard courts and he reached the Final last week in Dallas.

In the limited amount of matches played on the hard courts in 2026, Taylor Fritz has not been nearly as strong on the return of serve as he has been in previous years. He will want to seen that improved ahead of the tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, while Taylor Fritz will not have faced too many players as inexperienced as the one in front of him in this Second Round match.

There is every reason to believe that Taylor Fritz will be helped by the opponent he is facing on Thursday and the American may do enough to find the Breaks needed to cover this spread. 

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Taylor Fritz - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-8, - 3.03 Units (14 Units Staked, - 21.64% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 17th February)

With just the Semi Finals to go at the ATP events being played and the WTA Doha Final to be played, there are much fewer options when it comes to the Tennis Picks on Saturday.

The WTA Dubai main draw will begin on Sunday, so that is expected to be a busier day than usual alongside the conclusion of events in Delray Beach, Buenos Aires and Rotterdam.

Before that you can read my Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Saturday.

There was a temptation to back Elena Rybakina to beat Iga Swiatek, but it is not ideal for the former Wimbledon Champion to have had to play her Semi Final while the World Number 1 received a Bye through to the Final.

Iga Swiatek has also enjoyed playing in the Middle East, especially here in Doha, and this is one of those matches to sit back and appreciate with two of the top WTA players going at it.

Rotterdam has two Semi Final matches that also look tough to call with a slight lean on Grigor Dimitrov getting the better of Alex De Minaur for a second season in succession at the tournament.

Jannik Sinner should beat the home favourite, but Tallon Griekspoor has loved the conditions for his serve and it could be a more competitive Semi Final than some will expect.

That means the focus will be on Buenos Aires and Delray Beach where four Semi Final matches are set to be played.

Selections will be added to this thread when markets have been put together with Quarter Final matches played late into the evening in London.

The totals for the week have been updated, and any Tennis Picks will be added here on Saturday.

Tommy Paul - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This is the kind of situation that should motivate Frances Tiafoe- he has dropped below Tommy Paul in the World Rankings, but will be looking to remind the American public that he is still amongst the best players in the world.

It has been a difficult six months for Frances Tiafoe and his 2024 season has not started nearly as he would have expected.

Last week he suffered a one-sided defeat to Marcos Giron and his performances remain a little sketchy.

Now he has to face the Dallas Champion and a player who is competing with real confidence in Tommy Paul. The World Number 14 has an edge in terms of the numbers being produced and a comfortable Quarter Final win should mean that the Second Round battle with Alex Michelsen is not going to be affecting him so much.

Tommy Paul has also won the last two matches against Frances Tiafoe and he can level up their series on the pro Tour. He is serving well enough to do that, but it is Paul's return game where he looks to have a real edge in this contest and that could see him get the better of an opponent who is still perhaps a little vulnerable mentally after some poor losses in recent months.

It is a big spread that Frances Tiafoe could use to keep this close, but the play is backing Tommy Paul to do just enough on both sides of the court to show why he has moved past Tiafoe in the World Rankings.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Nicolas Jarry: He has not been at his most convincing best, but Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from defending the title he won in Buenos Aires in 2023.

He can then move onto the ATP 500 event in Rio next week looking to go one better than last year as Carlos Alcaraz looks to keep his Rankings points high in his bid to return to World Number 1.

There have been moments in this tournament where Alcaraz has just struggled to impose his tennis on the opponent as he would like and this is a tough looking Semi Final against Nicolas Jarry.

They met in Rio last year and Carlos Alcaraz had to fight through two tough sets before pulling away in the decider, while Nicolas Jarry gave him plenty to think about at Wimbledon, a Grand Slam tournament that Alcaraz eventually went on to win.

Nicolas Jarry has a big serve and it is effective on the clay courts, but he was perhaps fortunate to benefit from a Tomas Martin Etcheverry retirement in the Quarter Final. That match looked to be swinging in the direction of the home player before a leg injury ended the contest at the end of the second set and Jarry will know he needs to be a lot better in this one.

Serving well will give him a chance, and getting as many first serves in play as possible will certainly be very important to the outcome of the match.

However, the Jarry second serve has been attacked this week and Carlos Alcaraz is likely going to have success doing the same.

The World Number 2 has been serving well enough to keep Nicolas Jarry under pressure too and he may have enough to cover what is a big spread for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-8, - 2.40 Units (32 Units Staked, - 7.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 16th February)

It is never that much fun watching a match where the fine edges move against the Tennis Picks and especially not in a season where it seems to be happening far more often than it should do.

For example, on Thursday the two Picks from Doha ended up a combined six points fewer than their opponents, but both were beaten in straight sets.

While that is frustrating, it does not help the mood to see the two other selections made win THIRTY more points, yet have to struggle to get over the line. This just sums up the early part of the 2024 season and it just feels like there is very little fortune landing on the side of the Picks.

Bad Picks are not going to be ignored, but it is very strange to see so many dominating the numbers and still not being able to close the door on the matches as would be expected.

Turning around this inconsistent week is still the main ambition to start moving back in a positive direction, but it has been a tough slog. Poor selections would actually be a situation that could be resolved, but it is much harder to find the changes needed when so many players have been a point or two away from doing what is expected of them, only to then blow matches by losing the big points time after time.

Below you can see my early selections from the Quarter Final/Semi Final matches to be played at the four tournaments running this week.

Any further Picks from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach will be added to the thread on Friday morning.

Marcos Giron - 3.5 games v Patrick Kypson: It has been a positive time back in the United States for Marcos Giron who reached the Final in Dallas last week and has maintained strong form in Delray Beach.

With big events to come up in Indian Wells and Miami, Marcos Giron has to be feeling very good about where his tennis is right now.

Facing up against Patrick Kypson will be a challenge considering the young American has won a Challenger event in Cleveland in early February and he has won two matches here in Delray Beach. Taking full advantage of his Wild Card, Patrick Kypson has won back to back matches in straight sets and he has a serve that can be very dangerous.

The numbers have only slightly dipped when Patrick Kypson has faced top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months and so this is a match that Marcos Giron has to take very seriously.

However, the veteran in this match up has been playing at a really high level and that could be too much for Patrick Kypson to deal with over the length of time needed on the court.

If he serves well, Patrick Kypson will pose a threat, but Marcos Giron has been in strong returning form over the last couple of weeks and may find the breaks he needs to cover this line.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It has been a really strong run in the first two Middle East tournaments for Elena Rybakina and she is continuing to exert plenty of pressure on her opponents.

Serving as well as she has been, Elena Rybakina will be looking to keep that going against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The latter has had a strong run in the tournament too, but has not been nearly as convincing in her performances- the fine margins are landing in Pavlyuchenkova's side of the court, but she is going to need more than that if she is going to upset the World Number 4.

It is a big spread and especially if Pavlyuchenkova serves as well as she can.

An aggressive style is dangerous if Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is feeling her tennis, but you do have to feel that the match is going to be played on the Rybakina racquet.

Over the last couple of weeks, Elena Rybakina has not just been winning matches, but she has been winning matches really well and she can earn a measure of revenge for a French Open defeat to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in May 2021.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Alexander Shevchenko: He is 23 years old and heading back towards a career high World Ranking so the confidence will be in a pretty good place before Alexander Shevchenko thinks about what he will consider to be the best win of his career.

The Second Round saw Shevchenko get the better of Holger Rune and he has shown solid resliency this week in Rotterdam by winning both matches as an underdog. Both have been won in a final set decider too and that will give Shevchenko the belief that he is never out of this Quarter Final.

He is up against veteran Grigor Dimitrov who has enjoyed a very strong start to 2024.

Last week he came up short in the Marseille Final, but Dimitrov won a title last month and he has looked in pretty good nick in his two wins in Rotterdam.

The serve is expected to be an important weapon after Alexander Shevchenko struggled with his returning consistency against Holger Rune.

It is a big spread when you consider how Alexander Shevchenko has been serving in Rotterdam, but the scoreboard pressure could help Dimitrov reach yet another Semi Final on the Tour in 2024.

Tommy Paul - 1.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The only addition from the remaining Quarter Finals in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires is this selection from the opening match in Florida.

Two players who have been enjoying playing the hard court events in the United States meet in this Quarter Final and both Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul have to be feeling good about the tennis being played.

Tommy Paul won the title in Dallas last week and earned a Bye through to the Second Round in Delray Beach- his three hour win over Alex Michelsen may have sapped some of the energy, and that time spent on court is the one factor that has to reduce enthusiasm for the pick.

He is also facing an opponent in Jordan Thompson who has been winning matches with a real level of comfort over the last two weeks, although the Australian may have benefited from the draws to some extent. Three of the four wins he has produced in Dallas and Delray Beach have been against opponents Ranked Number 149 or even lower down the Rankings, although the win over Dan Evans deserves some respect.

It does mean Jordan Thompson is 4-4 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024 and his return game remains a relative weakness that can be exploited by Tommy Paul as long as he is still holding some energy in reserve.

The Thompson serve is a big weapon, but it did falter a couple of times in his defeat to Ben Shelton last week and Tommy Paul is a better return player compared with his compatriot. Of course he has played a lot more tennis than most in the last couple of weeks and that could show up, but Tommy Paul looks in a position to earn his first victory over Jordan Thompson on the Tour having lost their previous meeting on a grass court in the Netherlands.

Big serving should shorten the points and that should help Tommy Paul as he bids to reach another Semi Final on the United States hard courts.

MY PICKS: Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.42 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 23rd)

Thursday proved to be another very strong day with just one pick left to be played at the time of writing.

The other five picks all returned as winners to keep a strong week trending in a very positive direction and it also means back to back very good weeks to turn the 2018 season back around in a positive position.

In a long season this is certainly feeling like a strong portion with the last two weeks providing plenty of winners, but I am hoping the research continues to pay off as well as it has, although I do also recognise that I will have some tough moments when the luck is a little more negative than it has been.

Player are making use of their strong performances and turning those into wins for me and I looking for that to continue to round off another good week.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: Both Garbine Muguruza and Daria Kasatkina have been in very good form to reach the Dubai Semi Finals and both have deserved their place in the last four here.

Strong performances will give the players confidence in this Semi Final, although I am leaning towards Muguruza who reached the Final in Doha last week too and has opened up 2018 in fine form.

One of the key differences between the players which should make the difference is the ability behind serve that the two players have. Where Muguruza can be very dangerous when she is getting her first serves in, Kasatkina has had to work hard to protect her serve and that is going to be challenged by her opponent in this Semi Final.

There is a slight edge towards Kasatkina when it comes to the quality of return, but Muguruza is also very good on that side of the court. She should have a little more time to attack the Kasatkina serve too so I am liking the Spaniard to find moments where she can serve herself out of trouble while keeping the young Russian under immense pressure for much of the match.

They did play a really close match in Brisbane at the start of the 2017 season, but I like Muguruza to come through with a break more in the first two sets for a straight sets victory.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I backed Karen Khachanov in the Second Round and he didn't disappoint when crushing Mischa Zverev for the loss of just three games.

That is yet another strong performance in 2018 from the young Russian and I think he can beat veteran Julien Benneteau in front of his home fans in Marseille in this Quarter Final.

Benneteau has a couple of strong wins under his belt already this week and also upset Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round. However there is little doubt he was very fortunate in that match and a similar level is not going to be good enough to win a match like this one.

His numbers in 2018 have begun slightly down on 2017 on the hard courts and Benneteau is going to be challenged by Khachanov who has dominated those players further down the World Rankings. The win over Zverev in the Second Round means Khachanov is 4-0 against players Ranked outside the top 50 this season.

As I mentioned yesterday, Khachanov has opened 2018 in much stronger form on the hard courts than he produce in 2017. Those numbers are even more impressive when playing those outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and I really like the way Khachanov has returned in those matches.

This will be tough facing a Frenchman in France, but I am going to back Khachanov to win and cover this number of games too.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: There have been some signs that Tomas Berdych has lost some of his edge on the tennis court, but he has been in good form to open 2018 and I think he can continue that in this Quarter Final.

Berdych had a very difficult time in the Second Round win in Marseille, but he did eventually win and the numbers have looked good for him in 2018. The serve is performing slightly better than it did on the hard courts in 2018, but importantly for Berdych he has been producing a much superior return which is helping him make a strong start to the season.

It won't be easy for Berdych to dominate completely against Damir Dzumhur who has played well enough to open the new season himself. This is the second Quarter Final he has reached on the hard courts and Dzumhur has a solid enough return that he will believe he can force Berdych into tough positions when facing the big serve from the Czech player.

The concern for Dzumhur will always be a serve that can be attacked and I think Berdych will get enough joy from that side of the court to get into a position to win this match in straight sets.

Dzumhur has not quite been able to cut it against the top 20 players over the last few years and his return is not quite as effective in those matches. That underlines the vulnerability of his own serve and I would expect Berdych to find a couple more breaks of serve than his opponent which should lead to a cover of this number of games.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: 2018 has not started as well as Steve Johnson would have liked, but he has played well in his two matches in Delray Beach and I think he can continue his progress through one more Round at least.

He will need to play at the kind of level he has shown already this week to see off Evgeny Donskoy, even if the latter has perhaps been a little fortunate to get past Donald Young.

Donskoy beat Roger Federer last year in Dubai so has shown what kind of talent he possesses, but it has been tough to replicate that and the majority of his successes have come against players lower down the Rankings. The numbers are severely impacted when Donskoy plays top 100 Ranked players, especially on the return of serve, and I am not convinced he will be able to get through as many difficult moments as he did in the win over Young earlier this week.

It has to be remembered that Johnson's return game is far from the best, but he has been seeing the ball big enough this week and the numbers have been much better than what you may usually expect from him. That momentum should be enough to at least put pressure on his opponents serve and I would expect the American to make it through to the Semi Final.

The number of games is one less than I was expecting from this match and I will back Johnson to come through with a cover of them.


Peter Gojowczyk - 2.5 games v Reilly Opelka: There are plenty of comparisons between Reilly Opelka and John Isner with the two tall Americans in possession of a monster serve, but perhaps not the best once you get them into a deep rally or on the return of serve.

In 2018 Opelka has shown some improvement in his return game, at least in the first couple of months of the year, and that potentially will see a huge jump in the World Rankings with a serve capable of taking the racquet out of anyone's hands.

However Peter Gojowczyk has been playing well at a higher level than Opelka and the experience of playing John Isner this week will have done him a lot of favours. He also beat Opelka twice in 2017 and the German has a serve that can make sure he is not giving his opponent too many opportunities to get in front of this one.

Gojowczyk did struggle with his return of serve in the win over Isner but he didn't offer too many chances up to break serve and I think knowing that kind of pace and how to deal with it will stand him in good stead in this one. Those wins over Opelka also came with a number of breaks of serve so I do think Gojowczyk will be able to make enough balls to at least force his opponent to play some solid tennis to win points.

Eventually that may see Opelka just break down and I think Gojowczyk can find the breaks of serve to make sure he can cover this number of games. It won't be easy with the German sometimes liable to throw in a terrible service game, but I am expecting him to look after that side of his game and come through a difficult assignment with a 7-6, 6-4 kind of win.


Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 games v Taylor Fritz: An all North American battle between two young players who are hoping to make a big impact in the years ahead looks to be a fascinating one.

I like the way both Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz approach their tennis with big time winners the way forward. Both possess solid serves which can set them up to put pressure on the opponents and I expect to see some fine tennis in this Quarter Final.

However I am surprised the layers have not placed too much between them considering Shapovalov's seemingly complete transition onto the main ATP Tour. While there is room for improvement from Shapovalov, he has been playing well at a higher level than Fritz who had some injury concerns over the last eighteen months which has curtailed his own progress.

Shapovalov has also been showing an improvement when it comes to the return of serve and that could see him make the next step in his progress to the top of men's tennis. While I am not underestimating how well Fritz has played in his two wins this week and the confidence he will have earned from a winning habit in 2018, I think his serve is the slightly more vulnerable and in a close match I am favouring the Canadian to come through.

Personally I had Shapovalov down as a bigger favourite than he is for this match and I will back him to win and cover against the young American Fritz in what should be a good looking match.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Peter Gojowczyk - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-6, + 19.44 Units (48 Units Staked, + 40.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 22nd)

This has been a solid week after a number of successes on Wednesday, but there is still time for things to turn sour.

That means I have to make sure the research being put into these Tennis Picks continue to hit the mark as they have so far this week.

I've also had some fortune on my side which had been missing earlier in the season. A couple of breaks at key moments and players saving a host of break points was part of the strong day on Wednesday, but it feels like those situations are beginning to even up from some of the terrible luck I was having earlier this season.


On Thursday the Quarter Final matches at WTA Dubai will be completed, while the other four tournaments will complete their Second Round matches and set up their Quarter Final matches for Friday.

I am looking to keep the positive momentum going with these Tennis Picks.


Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Mischa Zverev: The first pick from Thursday will come from the ATP Marseille event and this is the first pick I am making from this tournament this week.

It isn't the deepest field, but this Second Round match looked intriguing even if Karen Khachanov has lost his two previous matches against Mischa Zverev.

I am a big fan of Khachanov and I think he is destined to be a top 10 player as he gains further experience on the Tour. His numbers in the early part of 2018 have been significantly improved compared to previous years, especially on the serve although Khachanov does have room for improvement when it comes to the break of serve.

However I think Khachanov can earn some opportunities against Zverev who has been struggling in 2018. I am still not completely convinced that Zverev is completely healthy as his service numbers have not been that impressive considering he has a big serve and looks to cut off angles at the net very quickly.

Zverev has returned a little better than I would expect from him, but I think he will have difficulty against Khachanov who is serving huge. I think the youngster can work through some tough moments to come through this Second Round match and he has been performing at a higher level than Zverev which should see Khachanov cover this number of games.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are a couple of really good young players on the ATP Tour who have already made an impact at the highest level. One of those is Denis Shapovalov who looks to potentially be the best of the 'Next Gen' of players coming through the Ranks and he is taking part in a Second Round match at Delray Beach on Thursday.

The serve is already a big weapon for Shapovalov and I think he can use that to put plenty of pressure on Jared Donaldson who simply has not been able to produce off that shot to the same level as the young Canadian.

Donaldson is also a young player with a decent future in the game, but I think he could be under some significant scoreboard pressure in this one.

Shapovalov does have room to improve when it comes to the return of serve, but I think he will have a few opportunities against Donaldson while also being able to limit the break point chances his opponent is able to create.

The hard courts are a very comfortable surface for Shapovalov and I think he can progress in straight sets which should be enough to earn a cover of this number of games.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: It is great to see Juan Martin Del Potro back amongst the very best players on the ATP Tour, although it is also clear that he is not quite up to the level he once was able to produce on the Tour.

Playing in Delray Beach has been a lot of fun for Del Potro having won the title once before and reaching the Semi Final in each of the last two seasons. His win over Jeremy Chardy came in impressive fashion and I think he will beat Frances Tiafoe in this Second Round match.

These two met at the Australian Open and it was a fairly comfortable day for Del Potro who won with at least one break in each of the sets in a straight sets victory. Del Potro has continued to serve very well, which will put his young opponent under pressure, and the return has been good enough to see opponents fall away mentally by the scoreboard pressure.

Tiafoe may have some more success having played Del Potro recently and knowing what he would need to do to make this a more competitive match. However he is still not producing to the same level as what Del Potro can and I would expect the Argentinian to find a way to earn at least a break more in a straight sets victory in this Second Round encounter.

The number of games to be covered is a big one in a best of three set match. However I do think Del Potro is going to be able to have enough break points to at least have a chance to do that and I like the way he has been playing so will back him to cover here.


Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Naomi Osaka: After winning her first set against Qiang Wang 6-1, it looked like Elina Svitolina would be able to move through to the Quarter Final much easier than it turned out being. She spent more time on court than she would have liked and Svitolina will feel she has to be better if she is going to beat Naomi Osaka in this match.

Osaka also spent longer on court than was perhaps needed as she blew a 5-2 lead in the second set of her own match before seeing off Anett Kontaveit in a second set tie-breaker. 

The Japanese player has been in good form in 2018, although it has to be said that she has struggled to remain competitive in her losses. She will be tested by Elina Svitolina even if she has won their last two matches because the latter is much stronger on the court than she was in 2016 when those matches were played.

Svitolina has the superior returning numbers which can be critical in a match where both players have decent serves and will be looking to earn plenty of cheap points.

I think Osaka will have her moments too, but Svitolina should be the stronger player with the better numbers on the day and I think that will help her win this Quarter Final and cover a number of games that I expected to be at least one higher than it is.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: After having to come through a really tough battle to beat Carla Suarez Navarro, Karolina Pliskova will know she is in for another difficult day when she faces Angelique Kerber in this Quarter Final.

While there are some similarities with the way Suarez Navarro and Kerber will approach things, the latter is a former World Number 1 who is playing very close to the level she produced in 2016 when getting to that position.

Kerber is perhaps a little vulnerable when it comes to her serve, but she has been able to protect it with strong defensive skills and the ability to quickly turn things from defence to attack. That is going to be an issue for Pliskova who can stumble when being asked to play more balls than she would normally be accustomed to.

The Czech player wasn't playing at her best on Wednesday and her own serve has been surprisingly attackable in recent matches. Pliskova will need to serve far better if she is going to win this match and I think that may be a big ask on current form.

She should have chances against the Kerber serve at times, but I think ultimately the defensive work from the German will help her win and cover in this Quarter Final.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Caroline Garcia: I had to add this pick later than the others simply because the markets had not been released with Garbine Muguruza finishing late in the day in Dubai.

It was actually late in the evening before the Spaniard was able to move through to the Quarter Final and my biggest concern has to be the recovery time between the Second Round win over Catherine Bellis and this Quarter Final against Caroline Garcia.

Even with that in mind, I expect Muguruza to frank her win over Garcia in Doha last week and I am looking for her to cover this win too.

She is being asked to cover the same number of games in this Quarter Final and she managed to do that after dropping the first set last week. However it was clear that Muguruza was the better return player on the day and I expect her to show off that side of her game in this match too.

As much as I like Garcia as a player, she is heavily reliant on the serve working to its best and someone like Muguruza should be able to crunch a few returns to put the Frenchwoman under pressure. Garcia has been serving well enough this week to beat the opponents she has, but I think this is a step up and her own return game is not as strong as some of the other players in the top 10 of the World Rankings.

I think that shows up here and sees Muguruza win and cover against Garcia for a second week in a row on the hard courts.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-5, + 12.94 Units (36 Units Staked, + 35.94% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 23rd)

This is going to be a very short thread.

I am going to have no more tennis picks this week after too many bad luck situations through the last ten days which has really messed with my mind. The final straw today was Elina Svitolina winning 20 more points than her opponent but not being able to get near to the cover, a number which told me all I wanted to know about where the fortune is going this week.

That match alone made me decide sometimes it is better to take a step back, refocus, and get back on the horse.

Another stat that I tweeted out earlier just summed up the way things were going- I took a match from each of the last three days that hasn't covered and noticed my players had 53 break points compared with 26 and yet none of those players could get over the hump. Again, you have to look at the stats and say something is going wrong this week when everything is pointing to it being right.

The numbers don't lie so where I usually apportion the blame to myself and making 'bad picks', this time I am going to say it is clear that I need to hit the reset button on the week. I should have been on the right side of at least five picks this week which has added to at least three more from last week where the players I picked won more points but somehow still conspired to lose the match.

I'm pissed off.

And that means the mind is a little clouded and needs a couple of days to clear up.

On this blog you will see the NBA Picks and the Weekend Football Picks and hopefully I can get next week off to a much better start on Sunday when the ATP Dubai tournament begins. This is a long season for the tennis picks so being able to take a step back and refocus should not be seen as a negative, but a positive to improve the general feeling and then take that forward.

Good luck to those having a better week with their tennis picks than I have been.

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 21st)

I have to say I was really frustrated with the tennis picks on Monday as I missed one thanks to a retirement when in a strong position and then Diego Sebastian Schwartzman only secures 5 break points from 21 opportunities and somehow didn't cover in a match he dominated against Renzo Olivo.

The picks in Dubai were also hit with a couple of unfortunate moments and I have to say Monday was a really annoyingly disappointing day.

There are five tournaments being played this week and that means Tuesday is an incredibly busy day with the majority of those getting through their First Round matches and Dubai having their whole Second Round played in the same day.

Hopefully there will be better fortune behind the picks on Tuesday after the frustration of Monday.


Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: This is a very good Second Round match to open the play on Tuesday in Dubai and Dominika Cibulkova is hoping for a better tournament than she had last week in Doha when she did reach the Semi Final in a rain affected tournament. This won't be an easy match for Cibulkova who meets the player who beat her at the Australian Open as Ekaterina Makarova came through her First Round match to set up this match.

That loss in the Australian Open was a really disappointing one for Cibulkova considering the injury Makarova had been carrying and I am not sure the latter is at 100% for this one. An early loss in St Petersburg has been followed by three wins for Makarova which will have given her some belief, but Cibulkova is considerably better than any player she has played in those wins.

The problem in backing Cibulkova is clearly her own serve can be vulnerable and that has led to her dropping sets as she tries to back up the serve on the ground. It is a pressure on any player to have to do that over and over and I also think Cibulkova has been a little under the standards she usually sets for herself.

It is balanced out by the fact that Makarova has not exactly been in very good form and has not really produced her best tennis in either Doha or Dubai. She does have an awkward serve to deal with, but I think Cibulkova can have a little more success than she did in the Australian Open and I like her to win this match 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.


Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Samantha Stosur only gave up six games in her First Round win in Dubai, but Ana Konjuh surpassed that by only giving up one game to a talented player in Shuai Zhang. That was an incredible performance from the young Croatian and I am going to back her to back that up with another solid win over this veteran.

The Stosur performances over the last couple of weeks has seen her snap a long run of losing matches and she might have had some confidence restored. However Stosur is going to need to serve at something like her best levels because I am not sure she is going to get a of joy attacking the Konjuh serve in this one.

It is the Konjuh serve that builds the confidence for the rest of her game and she is playing a returner in Stosur who is not at the top of the WTA in that regards. That should mean Konjuh is getting plenty of short balls and being able to dominate the rallies and I think that pays off with an impressive win.

Konjuh is only 19 years old and so it is no surprise she can have some ups and downs within a match as she perhaps still struggles to cope with the mental side of the game. However I actually think she may be the superior player by some distance at this stage of the careers of these players and I think Konjuh will have the majority of break points against Stosur and can cover this number.


Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 games v Kristina Pliskova: Last week was further proof that Karolina Pliskova has not got into a position where she believes she can win any tournament she enters. Another title in Doha has added to that but backing it up in Dubai is a big ask for the World Number 3.

That isn't just because playing as much tennis as Pliskova has over the last ten days is tough for most players, but Pliskova is also facing Kristina Mladenovic in her first match in Dubai. I have been very critical of Mladenovic in the past because I have felt she has massively underachieved as a Singles player and I even doubted she would really 'get it' to make it to the very top of the women's game.

However I might be eating my words of late having seen Mladenovic win the title in St Petersburg with some very impressive performances along the way. She was surprisingly beaten by Timea Bacsinszky in the Fed Cup since then, but Mladenovic made easy work of Katerina Siniakova in the First Round thanks to a pretty big serve of her own.

Both players in this one will feel their serve is going to be key, so Mladenovic can't afford to throw in as many Double Faults as she did on Monday. She was still a fairly comfortable winner and the three previous matches with Pliskova have been very competitive with this one having the makings of another.

Pliskova is rightly the favourite, but I think Mladenovic can make a match out of this one and I will take the games with the underdog.


Alison Riske - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: It was Alison Riske who came through the all-American clash with Coco Vandeweghe in the First Round as the underdog, but I think this time she can get the better of Anastasija Sevastova as the favourite in the Second Round.

Sevastova had a very good win in the First Round too and I think this is going to be a very good match although I do think Riske has a few edges that can help her through.

2017 has been a solid season for Riske to this point as she finished as Runner Up in Shenzhen, the Third Round in the Australian Open and has helped the United States win their Fed Cup tie with Germany. The hard courts remain her favourite surface as Riske has a fairly decent serve and backs that up with heavy and consistent groundstrokes which I feel will give her the advantage over Sevastova.

The end of 2016 and start to 2017 has been more difficult for Sevastova and I do think she is perhaps lacking a bit of confidence which can be huge when it comes to the big points. She has a decent game herself, but Riske might just have a little too much off the ground and I do like her finding a way to get through this match.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Mona Barthel: She isn't the World Number 1 after failing to defend her title at the Australian Open and 2017 has proven to be a tough season so far for Angelique Kerber. An early loss in Doha to Daria Kasatkina for the second time this season was a blow for Kerber and she will be looking to have a really strong week in Dubai to get this season started.

This is a tough match to open against Mona Barthel who played really well at the Australian Open before finding Venus Williams a little too strong. It was a long tournament for Barthel having come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw at the first Grand Slam of the season, but that tournament looks an outlier compared with the majority of her performances over the last twelve months.

There is some power behind the Barthel groundstrokes which will give Kerber some problems, while she will be able to attack the Kerber serve which has had issues all season. However I also think Kerber's defensive skills can extract mistakes from Barthel and I think ultimately the higher Ranked German can get the better of her compatriot in this evening match.

Kerber is only 4-4 so far in 2017 which is not what was expected of a player who reached three Grand Slam Finals last season and won two Grand Slam titles. She has covered this number in 3 of her 4 wins though and I will look for Kerber to do that in the Second Round here and try and build some momentum through the draw.


Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Illya Marchenko: There is so much to like about the potential Andrey Rublev has, but it is up to him to start producing the consistent performances to move up the World Rankings. His best recent performances have come in the Challenger events that Rublev has participated in, but the two wins in the Qualifiers has to give the Russian some confidence going into the First Round in Marseille.

It will certainly be more than can be said for Illya Marchenko who has lost 14 of his last 18 matches and that includes at the Challenger level. While there are times Marchenko looks very good, he can't maintain those levels and that has seen his opponents break him down.

Some of those losses have come against players who are far less talented than Rublev and I think the latter is someone who will believe he can overpower Marchenko. He has to be careful though as the latter will use all of his veteran know how to try and frustrate Rublev, but I can't help but think Rublev will be too good on the day.

I won't be surprised to see this one go into a third set, but Rublev might just believe in himself a little more at that point and he can come through with a 6-4, 6-7, 7-5 win.


Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I am not going to say much about this match except I cannot understand why Aljaz Bedene has been set as the favourite to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu. 

I understand that Mathieu is not the player he once was and that he is on the downward portion of his career, but Bedene has not exactly been winning loads of matches. Bedene was beaten as a big favourite in the First Round at the Australian Open and his return game on the hard courts has a lot of room for improvement which will give Mathieu a chance to win this match outright.

The Frenchman will be the one receiving plenty of vocal support from the crowd and I think he will be able to do enough to win a set which will give him a chance of covering this number.

This might not be a lot of games for Mathieu, but he is good enough even at this stage of his career to make them count and I just have to back him when I still believe he should be the favourite to win the match.


Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: Over the last week, Donald Young must have become accustomed to playing some of the biggest men, and serves, on the ATP Tour. Last week he beat both Reilly Opelka and John Isner in his run to the Semi Final in Memphis, and Young has been drawn to play Ivo Karlovic in the First Round in Delray Beach on Tuesday.

To be fair, Young rode his luck hugely against Isner to snap his losing run to him, but he will likely need to do the same if he is going to beat Karlovic for the first time. The Croatian has won all three previous matches between these players, including at the US Open last season, and the big man has won all seven sets they have competed against one another.

Two years ago Karlovic won the title in Delray Beach by beating Young in the Final so there is plenty of mental confidence he should have coming into the match. 2017 has not produced a great start for Karlovic but he is still producing plenty of big serves and I think he will be a little more effective at the big moments than Isner was last week in his loss to Young.

Coming forward makes it tough for opponents to continuously pass him and the mental pressure of having to stay with Karlovic could see Young produce a couple of loose service games which the Number 2 Seed can take advantage of. I don't worry too much about Karlovic producing a big serving day and I think that sees him come through in a tournament he has enjoyed in the past.

MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-4, - 6.18 Units (10 Units Staked, - 61.8% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 20th)

The first six weeks of the season have been up and down for the picks I have been making, but last week was clearly the worst one I was suffering through at the half way mark. Fortunately the last three days have been much better, but it still means the positive numbers for the season have been erased.

There are now two really big weeks left in February going through to early March where the big names and big events are played on both the ATP and WTA Tour. I am looking for two consistent, positive weeks that can move this season into a positive position ahead of the first two Masters events of the season at Indian Wells and Miami.


This week we have five different tournaments taking place from Bucharest, Delray Beach, Dubai, Marseille and Rio de Janeiro and that means there are plenty of opportunities to put a good week together. I have to be careful of getting into a big hole like I did last week when I didn't have much luck which coupled with some poor picks made it tough.

I am looking for the momentum from the last few days to carry through to the tournaments this week as I begin with picks from the scheduled play on Monday.


Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Yaroslava Shvedova: No one will ever take away the fact that Monica Puig won a Gold Medal for her country at the 2016 Olympic Games, but now is the time to produce more consistency on the WTA Tour. A poor start to 2017 was a disappointment for Puig, but she played well in reaching the Semi Final in Doha last week and I am expecting her to come through the First Round in Dubai.

Puig is facing Yaroslava Shvedova in the First Round in Dubai and while the latter has the head to head lead in this match up, I find it tough to know where she will find the confidence to increase that lead. While Shvedova has produced some very good runs on the Singles Tour, she has lost all three matches she has played in 2017 and five matches in a row going back to last season.

Last season Shvedova did reach the Second Round in Dubai having won three Qualifiers to get into the main draw and she is at her best on the hard courts. However the run of losses is going to have an affect if this match comes down to a few big points here and there and I like Puig to come through with the win.

It isn't easy to back Puig to cover this kind of number because of the way she plays. Puig will go for her shots and that can lead to plenty of unforced errors, and she does give away some silly sets of tennis behind those unforced errors. However Shvedova isn't playing with a lot of confidence and I think Puig will be good enough to come through in this one.


Madison Brengle - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There are likely to be a lot of break points, and subsequently breaks of serve, in this match between two players who are reliant on making plenty of balls and who have had an issue with their serves. Neither Madison Brengle nor Misaki Doi has a serve that is going to produce a lot of easy points and that means we are likely going to see a big battle in this First Round match.

It is Brengle who has had the biggest win of 2017 when she beat Serena Williams in Auckland, but the American has not really been able to back up that victory. Coming through the Qualifiers to play in Doha will at least have given Brengle some confidence, but Misaki Doi is returning to the court for the first time since reaching the Quarter Final in Taipei City earlier this month.

That should mean Doi is playing with some belief in this First Round match too, but Brengle has won the last two head to head between these players and can back that up with another on Monday.

I do think Brengle has also had the slightly better performances all around in 2017 and I will look for her to have the edge at the back end of the first two sets and earn the cover.


Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: Winning a title in St Petersburg has to make Kristina Mladenovic find some belief in her game on the Singles Tour having had her best performances on the Doubles Tour over the last couple of years. The Frenchwoman is still young and that title win might be seen as the breakthrough moment for a player on the brink of entering the top 20 of the World Rankings.

This would all be a big for Mladenovic whose success in St Petersburg was the first at this level on the WTA Tour and she is likely to reach a career best Ranking if she can put a strong performance together in Dubai. I do wonder whether she has finally understood what she needs to do and can protect a big first serve by backing it up with the consistency and heaviness of her groundstrokes.

It will be a test against Katerina Siniakova who has won both previous matches against Mladenovic and who won the title in Shenzhen earlier this season. Siniakova has not played well in her next two tournaments since that title win, but there is a lot to like about the young Czech player from a nation that has produced some significant talent in recent seasons.

However I do think Siniakova may struggle to deal with the Mladenovic power if the latter is anything close to the level she was producing in St Petersburg. The courts in Dubai should suit her game and allow her to penetrate the Siniakova defences and I think Mladenovic can battle through to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.


Daria Kasatkina + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Last week was a very good tournament for Caroline Wozniacki as she reached the Final in Doha, but it is a quick turnaround for the former World Number 1. She played the Final on Saturday and is now in action in the First Round in Dubai on Monday, while the rain in Doha has meant Wozniacki has played plenty of tennis over the last few days.

Daria Kasatkina also reached the Quarter Final in Doha before finding Monica Puig a little too strong, but she had some more impressive wins to add to her CV including another over Angelique Kerber. There is a lot to like about Kasatkina's game as I have mentioned, but someone like Wozniacki is capable of exposing her vulnerabilities by getting plenty of balls back in play and waiting for the young Russian to self-destruct.

The youngster does make a lot of balls back in play herself and she has had a little more time to get to Dubai and adjust to the conditions here where it is warmer than Doha. Kasatkina has also had a couple of days to recover from the exertions in Doha compared with Wozniacki and I do wonder if a day of rest is enough for her to win this match as easily as the layers are suggesting.

I do think Kasatkina is going to be able to give Wozniacki some problems on the return of serve and I think this could be a real battle. Whether she has enough to win the match outright is less of a concern when getting as many games as this one, but Kasatkina is capable of pushing this into a third set and I will take the games with the underdog.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Renzo Olivo: The clay court event in Rio de Janeiro is the first ATP 500 event to take place on the clay courts this season. That has attracted a decent field to this Golden Swing tournament and two Argentinians meet in the First Round in front of Brazilian fans that may not care too much for either.

This might be the thirteenth time Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Renzo Olivo have met on the Tour and it is the former who leads 7-5 and has won three matches in a row. However they have not met since 2014, but I do think Schwartzman can maintain the edge he has had over Olivo.

Olivo does have his best performances on the clay courts and has won some Challenger titles on the surface while also being competitive for the most part. However Olivo has gone 10-9 against this number in his clay court losses over the last twelve months, but that doesn't tell the full story as Olivo is 7-1 in his last eight losses.

So that should make it dangerous to go against him with such a big number, but Schwartzman should be comfortable with the match up having grown up against this opponent. He did win a title on the main Tour in Istanbul on the clay and has also been in some solid form over the last six months on the clay courts including winning a Challenger title of his own.

Since the French Open, Schwartzman would be 9-2 covering this number on the clay courts and I think he will be able to battle through to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 kind of win.


Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The defeat to Ryan Harrison in Memphis was surprisingly one-sided, but Sam Querrey can at least take solace in the fact that his compatriot has been in fine form and ended up winning the title in Memphis on Sunday. Querrey does usually have his best tennis reserved for North America so I am looking for him to bounce back and get the better of Dudi Sela in this First Round match.

The Israeli has won a Challenger title in 2017 and he reached the Semi Final in Chennai, but Sela has not had a lot of matches since then with an early loss at the Australian Open and Sofia. You would think Sela has every chance of outlasting Querrey in the rallies if he can handle the initial power that the American throws at hime, but the key for Sela is going to be to serve well and not allow Querrey to hit the first strike in the rallies.

Querrey has to find more out of his own serve too, but the hard courts are his favoured surface and I do think he is going to have a little too much power in his game for Sela. Something of a surprise to me was the fact that Querrey and Sela have split four previous matches and that includes beating him in the United States in Atlanta, but last season Querrey lost just two games in Acapulco against him.

I think Querrey is not half as good as some people may think because he makes too many errors and the backhand wing is a big weakness. However I do think he can use his big serve to put too much pressure on Sela and try and crack his resistance in this one and can cover this number.

Querrey is the defending Champion in Delray Beach having previously had some difficulties in this tournament, but being the defending Champion should give him the confidence to win this one 7-6, 6-4.

MY PICKS: Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Brengle - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2017: - 2.54 Units (426 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)

Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units