Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 18th February)

A tough day in the office has to be set aside in what has been a difficult week with two poor days out of three.

That is a disappointment and it did feel like some meat was left on the table with a couple of selections not quite making the grade, but ultimately coming in as winners.

However, the last thirteen months have produced a positive return and that means 'trusting the process' rather than worrying about what may have been.

The opening Picks on Wednesday are concentrating on the Third Round matches in Dubai- the Second Round matches in Doha look awkward with some big spreads set, but not big enough to want to trust the underdog either.

Any selections from the ATP tournaments in Delray Beach or Rio will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Janice Tjen: There are going to be questions about the WTA Tour calendar when scheduling consecutive 1000 events on back to back weeks in the Middle East. While the tournament in Doha largely went as planned, there have been a huge number of withdrawals and mid-match retirements here in Dubai as we only get into the Third Round.

Something will have to change, although neither Doha nor Dubai are going to want to hear that the tournaments they run are being downgraded- both are ATP 500 events rather WTA 1000, but even that may not be enough to appease them and a new Council will come together and see how they can help.

Amanda Anisimova has been one of the beneficiaries of a walkover in the Second Round, which means she has only played one match since the Australian Open. Even that match ended with a mid-match retirement when Anisimova had to pull out with an illness, but she has stated she is feeling better and a couple more days of recovery can only help.

This is an important week for Amanda Anisimova who won the title in Doha last year, but who was not able to defend those World Ranking Points last week.

There is some room for improvement in the early season form, but Anisimova is very comfortable on the hard courts and she can get the better of Janice Tjen.

The 23 year old enters the tournament in Dubai under a new career-high World Ranking of Number 46 and this season offers Janice Tjen a big opportunity to really build on that mark. Improving the World Ranking means being able to enter bigger tournaments and Janice Tjen showed how comfortable she is on the hard courts with a huge amount of wins on the surface in 2025.

Of course it should be noted that those were against players of a lower level than what she will be facing at the tournaments she will now be entering and a 5-4 record over the last six weeks suggests this is something of a learning curve. Janice Tjen has won two matches here, which will help the confidence, but she has yet to really get to grips with the return of serve at this level.

The Indonesian player has struggled against the very best players on the Tour and that has led to two straight-forward losses to top 20 Ranked opponents. In those two losses, Janice Tjen has not only struggled to protect the second serve, but she has won just 23% of return points played and someone like Amanda Anisimova can put her under enough pressure to pick up the Breaks of serve needed to cover this spread.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Another player who earned a walkover in the Second Round in Dubai is the defending Champion Mirra Andreeva.

She had a dominant run here in 2025 and Mirra Andreeva just reached the Doha Third Round, but there will be some pressure to get as close as possible to defend the title and the Ranking Points. That may not be a big issue for older players, but Mirra Andreeva is still developing and will not want to slip out of the top eight of the World Rankings ahead of the Grand Slams to be played.

The lack of competitive tennis this week may be a potential problem, but Andreeva should be happy enough with the conditions having had so much success at the tournament already.

There has been a lot to like about the level being produced early in 2026 and Mirra Andreeva has a 20-6 record on the hard courts when facing players Ranked outside of the top 20 over the last twelve months. She has won over 49% of the return points played in those matches and the World Number 7 will certainly feel she can put this opponent under some extreme pressure.

Jaqueline Cristian won the first set of her Second Round match without dropping a game before her opponent decided to call it a day.

That means the World Number 39 has played three completed sets in Dubai on her way to the Third Round and Cristian has only dropped two games. However, both of those matches have been against opponents Ranked Number 69 or lower and this is a considerable step upwards for a player who had a 5-5 record on the hard courts before the tournament in Dubai begun.

The year started with a run to the Quarter Final in Adelaide, but it has been tough for Jaqueline Cristian since then with early losses becoming the norm before this event.

Over the last twelve months Jaqueline Cristian has played well on the hard courts, but she is just 1-8 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the surface. In those matches, Cristian has been put under significant pressure when serving, and she has struggled to really make a big impact on the return, which is going to be something that Mirra Andreeva looks to exploit in this Third Round match.

It should be noted that in those eight losses against top 20 Ranked opponents, Jaqueline Cristian would have won enough games to stay within this spread four times.

However that also means she has failed to cover in the other half of those defeats and Mirra Andreeva has covered this spread in seventeen of the twenty hard courts wins produced against players Ranked outside the top 20.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: A really disappointing performance in the Australian Open Quarter Final loss to Elina Svitolina saw Coco Gauff's anger on display when cameras caught her backstage smashing her racquet. She stated in her press conference that she did not want her frustration to be shown to those who look up to her and that was the reason she waited until she had left the court, while other players have not been happy with what they feel was too much intrusion at that opening Grand Slam.

An early defeat in Doha has just kept Coco Gauff out of the headlines, but she showed some character to come through some sticky moments in beating Anna Kalinskaya in the Second Round here.

Despite her own early exit in Doha, Coco Gauff was restored to the American Number 1 spot on the WTA Tour and she will certainly be looking to build on the solid win over Kalinskaya.

Next up is a match against a reinvigorated Elise Mertens who has won all four sets in Dubai by the same 6-2 scoreline as she has cruised through the draw.

Three wins at the United Cup and a run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open have given the Belgian some real confidence and there is no denying that the overall numbers have been impressive.

It is the first serve in particular that has been a big weapon for Elise Mertens and she will need plenty of those to try and keep the American opponent under some pressure.

Elise Mertens has also won a couple of matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season, which is a big improvement on the 0-5 record against those players in 2025. The second serve has been a weakness in those matches, although Mertens may have more success against the Coco Gauff serve than she has had in the main against those higher Ranked players.

Double Faults have been the big problem for Coco Gauff for some time and that was the case in the Second Round win.

She cannot afford to give away too many points to Elise Mertens, but Coco Gauff will take confidence from the perfect 4-0 record that she has against the World Number 22 on the Tour.

Two of those wins have been on the hard courts, although Coco Gauff and Elise Mertens have not met for a couple of years and that may help the underdog from a mental point of view.

Even with that in mind, Coco Gauff may still find herself coming out on top at key moments and she can do enough to get through to the Quarter Final with a cover of the handicap set for the match.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alejandro Tabilo - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 2.49 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24.90% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 23rd February)

This has been a decent enough week, but there are still those matches that 'got away' and it is very hard to make much sense of the way Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in her Quarter Final against Sorana Cirstea.

Leading 6-2, 5-1, the Wimbledon Champion missed multiple Match Points and failed to serve out the match on three separate occasions in a defeat that will potentially linger for some time.

She will have an opportunity to recover over the next month with some big hard court events to be played, but it is frustrating for the Tennis Picks to not have a stronger day when a loss like that one hits the board.

It was better in other events, but there is still a couple of days to negotiate before this week can be stamped as the first positive one of the season or not.

Selections from the two ATP events in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, if there are any selections, and the week totals will be updated at that time too.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: A dominant run through the Middle East in the last couple of years would have made Iga Swiatek the favourite to win the tournament in Dubai this week and the World Number 1 has not let anyone down.

With her main rivals all exiting before the Semi Final, Iga Swiatek is now a very strong favourite to pick up the title on Saturday.

However, she made it clear in her post match interview on Thursday that Swiatek is taking nothing for granted and she will have to give Anna Kalinskaya plenty of respect considering the start the Russian player has made to the 2024 season.

She reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and Kalinskaya has won six matches in Dubai after coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draw. Her win over Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final on Thursday will have really gotten people to take notice and Anna Kalinskaya has only dropped the one set in her run at this WTA 1000 event.

The World Number 40 is making good use of a heavy serve and strong groundstrokes and those really make a big impact on the courts here in Dubai. It is certainly going to make Anna Kalinskaya a threat to Iga Swiatek, although the Polish player is on very strong form and has a pretty solid serve of her own.

The difference is that Iga Swiatek has been a little more productive on the return of serve and she may be a bit more solid than Coco Gauff if she is able to get in front as the American did in the Quarter Final.

One of the best front runners on the Tour, Iga Swiatek can find a way to break down the Anna Kalinskaya game and the return of serve may prove to be a bit too strong for a much improved player. When she was beaten in Melbourne, Anna Kalinskaya just fell away against Qinwen Zheng and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will be able to break her down in this Semi Final.

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The defending Champion has made serene progress through the first couple of Rounds in Rio de Janeiro, but Cameron Norrie has to be expecting a much sterner test in the Quarter Final.

For starters this will be the first time this week that he will be facing a home player and the crowds in South America can really play a big part in the outcome of matches.

His opponent, Thiago Seyboth Wild, has been doing just enough to make his way through his opening two matches and that will have built up some confidence. While he will need to be a lot better than he was in the First Round, Seyboth Wild was stronger in the Second Round win and has shown plenty of promise on the clay courts over the last twelve months, even if the start to 2024 has been underwhelming.

Serving well will be very important for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just make sure he is keeping his side of the scoreboard ticking over. That is certainly going to at least put some pressure on Cameron Norrie, who has loved the conditions at this event and who has been dominant behind serve so far this week.

Anything below par will give Cameron Norrie the opportunity to attack Thiago Seyboth Wild and the World Number 23 has just shown a bit more sign of returning to his top level.

Beating a home player who has built up some momentum is never easy, but Cameron Norrie did beat Brazilian Thiago Monteiro on his way to winning the title in Rio de Janeiro last year and he can get the better of this home hope.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 17-12, + 5.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 10.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 22nd February)

The Tennis continues on Thursday, although the tournament in Rio de Janeiro looks like it is going to be hit hard by the weather through the remaining few days there.

That is not the case for the WTA Dubai event and the two ATP tournaments in Doha and Los Cabos and the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread.

However, the time zones and the faster than usual nature of the scheduling this week means the markets are taking a little longer to be put together. That is contributing to the need to add selections after the initial thread is posted and that remains the situation.

Rain has meant the entire Second Round of the Rio de Janeiro tournament has been pushed into Thursday and both selections from Wednesday will be completed then. The week update is of every match that has been completed with a full result and that is at the bottom of the thread, while selections from the two tournaments played in the Western part of the world have also been added.

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Some of the bigger names have had a challenging time working their way through to the WTA Dubai Quarter Final and the same could be said for Marketa Vondrousova, the Wimbledon Champion.

Well that certainly could have been said about her Second Round win over Payton Stearns as the Czech player came through a decider, but she was much stronger in the Third Round win on Wednesday.

After a relatively disappointing start to the season, Marketa Vondrousova has to be pleased with the level shown in Dubai through the first couple of matches. It is the return of serve that has been really effective for her and only a slight improvement in the serving numbers will be needed if Vondrousova wants to start stringing some wins together.

She will have to be very much focused on this Quarter Final opponent Sorana Cirstea who continues to enjoy playing some of her best tennis of her career just when it felt like she should be past her prime.

Even a defeat on Thursday will not prevent Sorana Cirstea from heading back to her peak career World Ranking which was achieved eleven years ago, while further successes in Dubai may finally see the Romanian crack the top 20 of the Rankings for the first time.

That has to be the ambition for Sorana Cirstea going forward and she will be happy with her own level in Dubai having won three matches and fighting back from what looked like being a losing effort in her win over Donna Vekic. Over two hours were needed for Sorana Cirstea to win that match and it will be interesting to see if she can recover physically as well as mentally to prepare for this Quarter Final.

It has been a solid start to 2024 for Cirstea and her first serve can be a very strong weapon when operating at its best. However, too many second serves will give Marketa Vondrousova the impetus to take control of rallies and it may give the Wimbledon Champion an opportunity to turn the tables after two closes losses to this opponent over the last eighteen months.

Both were on hard courts so there will be a confidence in Sorana Cirstea when she enters this match, but Marketa Vondrousova may feel she has just missed out when the big points have been played in those defeats and this time she could be playing well enough to turn things around. That will be 'easier' to do if Cirstea is feeling the efforts of her Third Round win and the Czech lefty can be backed to find a way through to the Semi Final.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Over the next three months, Iga Swiatek has a lot of World Ranking points to defend, but she has an opportunity to extend the gap to World Number 2 Aryna Sabalenka with a strong end to the tournament in Dubai.

Adding the Miami Masters to her schedule will give Swiatek a bit of room for error, while the World Number 1 remains the player to beat when the clay court events roll around.

Playing through the Middle East has been a very positive time for Iga Swiatek and she reached the Final in Dubai last year having won the title in Doha. She has already defended that title and Iga Swiatek is going to be tough to stop in her bid to win the title here too.

The Australian Open Runner Up may have something to say about that and Qinwen Zheng has looked pretty decent in the last couple of Rounds after an early loss in Doha. There are still some questions for the World Number 7 to answer despite reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and that is largely down to the lack of top quality opponents that have been beaten so far.

Qinwen Zheng did beat Marketa Vondrousova at the United Cup in January, but after that, the highest Ranked player she has beaten in 2024 is World Number 35 Anastasia Potapova. That win was earned in the Third Round on Wednesday, but it is hard to ignore that Zheng has been well beaten in both matches played against Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek this season and was pretty poor in her loss to Leylah Fernandez last week.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents and that falls to 3-5 against the top 10. On the face of it that is not too bad, but the likes of Elena Rybakina, Swiatek and Sabalenka are a different proving ground for Qinwen Zheng.

She has lost all five previous matches against Iga Swiatek, including all three played on the hard courts.

Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for the fact she has taken a set from the World Number 1 in two of the three hard court matches, but she has not been able to maintain the level required and all of the defeats have been relatively comfortable by the end of the match.

The first serve will be crucial for Qinwen Zheng, but there is room for improvement behind the second serve and her return of serve and these are areas that Iga Swiatek should exploit.

In the last two hard court matches between the two, Iga Swiatek has really taken hold of the return of serve and something similar in Dubai is likely going to lead to another strong win for the top player on the WTA Tour.

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The biggest challenge for Ugo Humbert may be the fact he is facing one of the big names in recent French Tennis history.

However, Ugo Humbert has played Gael Monfils twice before and he has to be feeling very confident having won a title already this month and sitting in the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Gael Monfils is still plenty athletic around the court and he is capable of some big serving, which does make him dangerous.

He has played just about well enough in the first two matches in Doha to reach this Quarter Final, but Monfils is playing on the fine margins and someone like Ugo Humbert is playing well enough to force the veteran on the back foot.

It is much more difficult to keep making the big plays when put under pressure and the feeling is that Ugo Humbert will break down the Gael Monfils game.

This has the potential of being an awkward spread, but Humbert can do enough to move into the Semi Final behind another decent win in 2024.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He is playing at a career high World Ranking after winning the title in Buenos Aires so Facundo Diaz Acosta will not be lacking for confidence.

A win over Stan Wawrinka in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro will have furthered that belief in his own tennis, but Diaz Acosta will remember a painful lesson that was dished out by Sebastian Baez just a couple of weeks ago.

This one is expected to be closer, but Baez continues to show he is a confident and solid clay courter and the expectation is that he franks the win he had over Facundo Diaz Acosta in Cordoba.

It is a tough spot for the lower Ranked of the compatriots having played all through last week, and that should give Sebastian Baez the narrow edge to progress with a win and a cover.

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games v Alex Michelsen: Both of these players have come through for me this week so it is is not easy to oppose either, but the expectation was that Jordan Thompson would be a stronger favourite than he is.

The Australian has continued playing at an extremely solid level when not facing the very top players on the Tour and the last month has been very good to him.

Jordan Thompson will be hoping a little bit of inexperience from Alex Michelsen also perhaps aids him in this match.

Alex Michelsen crushed Alex De Minaur in the Second Round for what may be his biggest Tour win in his career, but backing those up can be difficult the first couple of times around. That will be the challenge for him against someone like Jordan Thompson who is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

I do think the potential in Alex Michelsen is higher than Jordan Thompson has had in his career, but at this moment, the latter is playing well enough to just serve well enough and put enough pressure on his younger opponent to find a way past him into the Los Cabos Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 14-8, + 8.70 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.77% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)

The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.

All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.

There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.

Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.

Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.

Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.

Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.

Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.

Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.

You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.

Alexander Bublik v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.

All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.

However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.

It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.

While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.

The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.

In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.

Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.

Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.

One of those is backing Jaume Munar to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.

However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.

The expectation is also that Cameron Norrie, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.

The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.

While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving Jordan Thompson.

The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.

Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.

I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 20th February)

The WTA tournament being played in Dubai is using a big format and that means they are rushing through the Rounds.

To put it another way, the First Round may have been split over two days, but the entire Second Round is scheduled to be completed on Tuesday. This will mean the Third Round is played on Wednesday, the Quarter Finals on Thursday and the Semi Final and Final will be completed on Friday and Saturday.

Sixteen Second Round matches are set to be played on Tuesday and a number of courts are being used on what is going to be an extremely busy day for a tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

Matches are also scheduled for the tournaments being run by the ATP Tour, although the Picks, if any, from Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, as will the weekly update once all of the Monday scheduled matches are completed.

There are not going to be any Picks from the ATP Doha matches scheduled for Tuesday- the only one that even had me a little interested to find an angle proved unappealing in the end and that will be a tournament that will hopefully provide more options as we move into the Second Round and beyond.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: It was perhaps not as easy as the final scoreboard might have suggested, but Leylah Fernandez did play well enough to earn her spot in the Second Round at the WTA Dubai event. This keeps some positive momentum behind the Canadian who had not had the best start to 2024, but who played well in Doha last week and looks to have brung that form into this latest WTA 1000 tournament.

She was a favourite to beat Bernarda Pera and Leylah Fernandez will be the favourite again when she takes on Italian Jasmine Paolini in the Second Round.

Jasmine Paolini has had to Qualify for the WTA Dubai event in the last couple of years and managed to do that each time, but she had not won a main draw match until beating Beatriz Haddad Maia in the First Round on Sunday. The fightback within that match will have given Jasmine Paolini confidence and she is playing on a career high World Ranking mark.

Unsurprisingly there have been plenty of successes on the clay courts, but Paolini is a solid enough hard court player who deserves to be respected. She reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Jasmine Paolini has been able to snap a three match losing run in coming from behind to beat Haddad Maia.

There is no doubt that there is still room for improvement in her tennis on the hard courts- over the last twelve months it has been seen that the Paolini serve can be a little vulnerable when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface. That puts a bit more pressure on the return, which is clearly more challenging on the faster surfaces compared with her favoured clay courts.

You may not always expect Leylah Fernandez to have very strong serving numbers, but she does look after that shot well enough. If the Canadian can get enough first serves in play, she will believe she can dictate the tempo of this match and that will be key for Fernandez as she looks to earn a place in the Third Round.

The head to head will certainly give Leylah Fernandez plenty of confidence too having won all three previous matches against Jasmine Paolini. All of those have been on the hard courts and Fernandez is yet to drop a set, while the two most recent wins were both played in 2023.

Leylah Fernandez has had a clear edge in her serving games in the two wins produced over Jasmine Paolini last season and she won 51% of points played against the Paolini serve. That is likely to be the key to this match and the former US Open Runner Up can find a way to win and cover as she progresses to the Third Round of back to back tournaments in the Middle East.

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games v Payton Stearns: A win over Mirra Andreeva should give Payton Stearns a boost in confidence as she snapped a four match losing run to open her 2024 season.

It was a back and forth match against the talented teenager, but Stearns was able to come out on top and move into this Second Round match against Marketa Vondrousova.

After playing well at the US Open in September, Payton Stearns has really struggled for form in her hard court matches. Following her Fourth Round exit in New York City, Stearns had been on a 3-9 run on the Tour in hard court matches before getting the better of Andreeva in the First Round.

Marketa Vondrousova has not exactly been at her best level in 2024 herself, but there were some signs that she was getting closer last week in Doha. She had chances in her loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, although there are some question marks about Vondrousova's current form and whether she can cover such a big handicap mark.

She has beaten Payton Stearns pretty comfortably in the two previous matches- one of those was at Wimbledon, a tournament Marketa Vondrousova went on to win, and the other was at the US Open.

Much like Payton Stearns, Marketa Vondrousova followed the US Open with a relatively poor run of form that has seeped into the 2024 season.

However, over the last twelve months, Stearns has struggled to a 1-8 record when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her numbers have been pretty poor in that time too. While it is very difficult to trust Marketa Vondrousova on her current form, she has tended to be good enough to beat those outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and the Czech player has had an edge in the serving numbers when facing Payton Stearns.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Liudmila Samsonova: It looks a good opportunity to back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to continue her strong form from Doha as a slight underdog in this Second Round match.

A relatively comfortable win was produced in the First Round and there should not be any excuses about a long week in Doha in preventing Pavlyuchenkova from finding her best tennis in Dubai. The lack of distance between the tournaments and the fact that her Semi Final defeat was last Friday means there has been ample time to recover as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looks to get the better of her compatriot.

It had been a poor start to 2024 for Liudmila Samsonova who lost her first three matches, including a First Round exit at the Australian Open, but she had a solid run in Abu Dhabi.

Like her opponent, Samsonova found Elena Rybakina too hot to handle in that Semi Final in Abu Dhabi before another early exit in Doha last week. However, a solid First Round win in Dubai will have given Liudmila Samsonova a bit more confidence and she will know that her serve can be a massive weapon on relatively quick hard courts.

However, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can produce some dangerous serving of her own and looks to be playing with a bit more consistency of the two Russians.

Out of the two players, Pavlyuchenkova has been getting slightly more out of the return of serve and that could be key in a match that may come down to the fine margins.

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 games v Cristina Bucsa: The run to the Australian Open Quarter Final would have come as a surprise to those outside of Anna Kalinskaya's team. The challenge for the player is backing up that performance and building on reaching a new career high World Ranking, which is why the early defeat in Doha would have been a blow.

She has battled through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in Dubai and Anna Kalinskaya has won all three matches at the tournament without dropping a set.

This will have restored any drop in confidence and the hard court numbers in 2024 continue to impress.

Anna Kalinskaya deserves to be set as the favourite in this Second Round match against Cristina Bucsa who is playing in her third tournament this season as a Lucky Loser. She was beaten in the final Dubai Qualifier by Storm Sanders, but benefits from Ons Jabeur's subsequent withdrawal.

Cristina Bucsa did reach the Abu Dhabi Quarter Final as a Lucky Loser and she will feel this draw gives her a chance of extending her run in this tournament too. However, the Spaniard has not produced the same level as her opponent so far in 2024, especially when not playing the better players on the Tour, while Anna Kalinskaya will have fond memories of beating Bucsa in straight sets in Brisbane in January.

There was a massive edge in favour of the Russian on the return that day, but this match is expected to be closer. Of course it can't really be expected to be as one-sided as when Kalinskaya dropped just two games, but even a closer match is one in which the favourite can win and cover.

As long as Anna Kalinskaya can look after her own serve, the pressure should build on the Cristina Bucsa serve and the World Number 40 can find the breaks she needs to progress with some comfort.

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games v Nao Hibino: Any time a player reaches a Grand Slam Final, the target on their back will increase in size and opponents will really try and knock someone from off of their perch.

A 'nothing to lose' kind of approach to those matches can make it tough for the Grand Slam Finalist and especially when it has come unexpectedly.

Qinwen Zheng reached the Final at the Australian Open, but you have to factor in the way the draw opened up for her before she was well beaten in the Final by Aryna Sabalenka. Her performance in Doha was inconsistent to say the least and so it is perhaps a difficult spot in which to trust her to win, never mind cover a spread like this one.

However, Nao Hibino is not playing to the level she once was and she has suffered some one-sided defeats on the hard courts in 2024. Three wins in Dubai will have just given Hibino a boost in confidence to take into this Second Round match against an opponent who received a Bye through to this stage of the tournament, although the World Number 93 will know there is a considerable talent gap to bridge.

The Japanese player has always been comfortable on the hard courts, but she has a vulnerable serve and especially when she has been playing top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.

You don't always know what you are going to get from the Qinwen Zheng return, but she does have a big serve and that should at least contain some of the threat that Nao Hibino will bring to the court. Nao Hibino's return numbers have been pretty poor against the top players on the Tour over the last twelve months and it will build scoreboard pressure in favour of Zheng.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has won all fourteen hard court matches against players Ranked outside the top 50. The serve has dominated and she has won 47% of the return points played in those matches too.

Covering a spread like this one has been an issue with eight failures in those fourteen wins, but Nao Hibino has struggled to stay competitive within matches so Qinwen Zheng can be backed for a rare big cover here.

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: The biggest question about this Second Round match is how well Karolina Pliskova has recovered having played a lot of tennis over the last couple of weeks.

Winning the title in Cluj and then fighting her way through to the Doha Semi Final took its toll on the former World Number 1 and she was not able to compete in that match against Iga Swiatek.

Karolina Pliskova was able to beat veteran Shuai Zhang in the First Round, although that win is not massively impressive considering how long the latter has been out of competitive action. It was a solid, if unspectacular, performance from Karolina Pliskova and she may need to be a bit better when facing Ashlyn Krueger.

Coming from a set down to beat Caroline Garcia and having Monday as a day of rest is a benefit for the American, although it has been a relative struggle to find consistency for the 19 year old. She has put a few wins on the board in 2024, but Ashlyn Krueger knows the majority of those have been in Qualifying Rounds and this is a much tougher test.

None of the matches have been 'easy' though and wins over top 100 Ranked players have been racked up.

That will give Krueger confidence and she has been able to exert some control of matches with her serve. The teenager will need to serve well if Karolina Pliskova is bringing her best form to the court and the feeling is that the Czech player will ultimately have a bit too much know-how at this stage of their respective careers.

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 games v Lulu Sun: It looked like the run of beating everyone she has faced but Victoria Azarenka in 2024 might have been under threat when dropping four games in a row to lose the first set.

In previous years this might have ended up seeing Jelena Ostapenko just self-combust, but she has shown decent mental strength to recover and ultimately move through to the Second Round in Dubai without too many issues.

The Latvian will be a big favourite when playing Lulu Sun, the 22 year old from Switzerland who is Ranked outside the top 200 but who has been given a Wild Card into the Dubai tournament. A win over Paula Badosa should be a huge boost for Lulu Sun, even though the match ended prematurely at the end of the first set, while she did Qualify for main draw matches in Auckland and at the Australian Open.

It is still a big leap upwards to face Ostapenko in the form she has been in, while Sun had not been competitive in her two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Paula Badosa.

In fact she had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to the First Round here in Dubai and Lulu Sun had struggled to be very competitive. The first serve has been decent enough, but the second is vulnerable and finding enough quality on the return of serve is something the young player is still trying to develop.

An aggressive player like Jelena Ostapenko is likely going to offer a stern examination of the Lulu Sun game and the feeling is that the World Number 11 will continue her strong form to open this season.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: She reached the Final in Auckland before narrowly losing to Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina looked to be motoring in another strong Grand Slam effort at the Australian Open.

Three wins in straight sets took the Ukrainian into the Fourth Round in Melbourne, but an unexpected and shocking back issue forced Elina Svitolina to withdraw from that Fourth Round match after just three games had been played.

She has not really been able to explain what happened and Svitolina has spent some time away following the Australian Open, but she was able to produce a strong First Round win on Monday.

Now there is every chance Elina Svitolina can back that up against another veteran Tatjana Maria who has had a difficult start to the season. Her win in the First Round will be a boost, but Maria has suffered some extremely one-sided losses this season and it may be a tough match up for her in this one.

The five losses that Tatjana Maria has suffered this season have been by margins of eleven, seven, six, eleven and ten games- when she has lost, she has lost very, very easily.

The concern for her fans is that Tatjana Maria lost her last two hard court matches against Elina Svitolina in one-sided fashion, albeit the last of those was back in the 2018 US Open. Much has changed for both players in that time, but Elina Svitolina is still playing at a decent level after returning from giving birth and the edge has to be with the higher Ranked player.

Take away the retirement at the Australian Open and Elina Svitolina has won ten straight hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. Strong serving has set her on her way and Elina Svitolina can get plenty of joy in the return during this Second Round to produce a strong win.

Adding the Tennis Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Los Cabos with a few thoughts on those.

I do think both Sebastian Baez and Arthur Fils should both be able to cover big spreads- the former has been in decent form on the clay courts, while the latter is confident enough on the surface and taking on a young, inexperienced opponent.

Both of those players are competing in Rio, but in Los Cabos the play is on Marcos Giron to maintain the fine run of form he has been in through the month of February.

Taro Daniel can be dangerous on the hard courts, but Giron is playing well enough to grind him down and cover this relatively big handicap mark.

There are a couple of underdogs that could certainly thrive in the First Round in Los Cabos, but neither Flavio Cobolli nor Nuno Borges convinced me to add them to the selections.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-4, + 0.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 19th February)

The run through the Middle East before the majority of the Tour moves to the United States for back to back Masters events is an important time for many top names on the WTA and ATP.

It is especially the case for the WTA players with the events in Doha and Dubai both classed as 1000 events, while the ATP events in the same two venues are at 250 and 500 level.

Iga Swiatek won the title in Doha when getting the better of Elena Rybakina and both players will be looking to back up that run in Dubai. Another player in action is Australian Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka who competes for the first time since winning that Grand Slam title and only Jessica Pegula is unable to perform out of the very top players on this side of the Tour.

This should mean another strong event, although the Seeds tumbled very early last week- eventually the cream did rise to the top, but it does make the early Rounds a minefield to negotiate.

First Round action is completed in Dubai on Monday and the ATP events in Doha, Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro are move into main draw action too. With the massive time differences between events, prices for markets are not always out in good time in London and so some of the threads will have Picks added to them as has been the case through the start of the month.

The Tennis season has been very difficult so far and the month has been a poor one after the disappointment of the Australian Open.

This week has not started very well either, but it is only the start of the week and this is the time where the turnaround has to begin- that does put some pressure on the selections, but the demand for better has always been around the Tennis Picks and so the situation is not very different to normal.

However, things do have to change compared with the way they have been going- while the month has not been nearly as crushing as the start in January, it is very important to try and put a positive week on the board.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The big tournament in Dubai is an opportunity for players like Leylah Fernandez and Bernarda Pera to push their World Ranking much higher than their current positions. Both have enjoyed operating at a higher level previously, but it has been a tough twelve months for both Fernandez and Pera as they prepare to face off in the WTA Dubai First Round.

Having to come through the Qualifiers at events in 2024 has given Bernarda Pera some confidence to take into matches- she has already won two matches in Dubai so the conditions are clearly going to be comfortable for Pera.

She had to come from behind to win both Qualifying matches, and Bernarda Pera has won plenty of Qualifiers including two in Abu Dhabi earlier this month. However, she has only won one of her main draw matches in 2024 and the American is facing an opponent who had a decent run in Doha last week to build some confidence of her own.

It feels like a lot of time has passed since Leylah Fernandez reached the US Open Final and she has never really been able to produce that kind of success since.

Disappointing early exits at the United Cup and Australian Open in January would have been a blow, but Leylah Fernandez won three matches in Doha last week.

She can be difficult to trust to cover a spread like this one and that is because the Fernandez game is one that operates on fine margins- the Canadian does not have an overwhelming aspect to any part of her tennis and feels more like a reactive player than a proactive one with her speed around the court one of the stronger Leylah Fernandez attributes.

These players did meet on a hard court in Washington last season and Leylah Fernandez was a relatively comfortable winner.

The return game of both players has not been good enough to compete with the very top players on the Tour, but Leylah Fernandez does have a slight edge over Bernarda Pera in her serving numbers. It was also the case when they met in Washington several months ago and the Canadian can find a way to win and cover in this First Round match.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: Another strong showing in Doha has pushed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova back towards her natural place on the WTA Tour. Injury had contributed to a slip down the World Rankings, but she reached the Semi Final in Doha on Friday and Pavlyuchenkova will be looking to back that up with the short move to Dubai for another WTA 1000 event.

This is not an easy First Round match, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been serving well in 2024 and that has contributed to winning more often than not.

First up for the Russian is a match against Marie Bouzkova who had reached her career best World Ranking fourteen months ago, but who has lost four of her last five matches having begun the year by reaching the Quarter Final in Auckland.

Confidence will have been affected by that run of results, but Bouzkova has to be respected with her performances perhaps a little stronger than those results have been.

However this looks like a tough test for Marie Bouzkova.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has really been playing well against those players Ranked outside the top 20 and her numbers have been very impressive in those matches. If she can maintain that level, Pavlyuchenkova should have the ability to win this First Round contest and cover the spread set.

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Xiyu Wang: The suggestion is that Jelena Ostapenko did not want to shake Victoria Azarenka's hand at the end of their match in Doha because of a change in policy set out by the Latvian government. Much like Ukrainian players, Latvian players are now not expected to shake hands with opponents from Russia or Belarus, but Azarenka was not buying that.

The fact is that Ostapenko offered a racquet tap and there is clearly no love lost between them.

Jelena Ostapenko has to be frustrated considering she has lost all three matches played against Victoria Azarenka in 2024- that frustration is higher when you think she has a 14-0 record against every opponent faced.

She should be good enough to see off Xiyu Wang in the First Round, even though Wang wil be feeling happy with her tennis having crushed two opponents in the Qualifiers. Xiyu Wang did not drop a set in those two wins, although this is going to be a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Nothing can be taken for granted in this match with Wang showing she can be very competitive if her opponent is not playing at their very best.

However, the performances against top 50 players over the last twelve months have not been good enough and Xiyu Wang has struggled on the return of serve.

There is no doubt that Jelena Ostapenko can be a little hard to trust with her overly aggressive style potentially leading to errors. She has had twelve wins against players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2024 and Ostapenko has covered this line in ten of those matches.

While it won't be easy, Ostapenko may bounce back from the disappointing defeat in Doha to put another win on the board here.

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 games v Lucia Bronzetti: A Lucky Loser has entered the main draw after Marta Kostyuk was forced to withdraw, but this is a tough match for Lucia Bronzetti.

The Abu Dhabi Runner Up was beaten early in Doha and Daria Kasatkina has had a mixed start to the season in terms of her overall level of performance.

The tennis she produces means it can be something of a challenge for Kasatkina when it comes to covering big spreads- her serve can be vulnerable and she can be outhit, but it is very difficult to trust Lucia Bronzetti to be able to push the World Number 13 when you think she has lost eight matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents.

The Italian has really found it tough over the last twelve months when it comes to hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents too. Lucia Bronzetti is 1-10 in those matches and her second serve has been vulnerable, while she has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as she would have liked.

As mentioned, the Daria Kasatkina serve can be vulnerable which makes it hard to cover big spreads.

However, Kasatkina has won nearly 50% of return points played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 over a twelve month period in hard court matches. That ability to put pressure on the return can show up here and Daria Kasatkina may find the breaks of serve needed to earn a relatively comfortable passage into the Second Round.

It is a pretty busy day in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro too with the First Round matches getting underway.

I do like both Alex Michelsen and Roman Safiullon to win and cover in Los Cabos- the two players are in decent nick, but their opponents have been struggling for consistency and that could show up in those First Round matches.

Over in Rio, Cameron Norrie is the defending Champion and is expected to beat Hugo Dellien despite a poor tournament in Buenos Aires last time out. It can be tough to back Norrie to cover any kind of spread with his tennis played in tight margins and the fact he can play up or down to an opponent's level, but he should have enough to win his First Round match with the breaks of serve needed.

Alejandro Tabilo is playing a home player who had a very good year on the clay courts in Thiago Seyboth Wild.

The start to 2024 has not been nearly as effective though and Seyboth Wild is going to have to serve very well if Alejandro Tabilo is operating anywhere near his best form.

Back to back wins over the Brazilian should give Tabilo confidence too and he can edge past Thiago Seyboth Wild.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex Michelsen - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roman Safiullon - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 20th)

What a terrible week this one has been!

That's the biggest takeaway I can have with so many bad breaks that is beginning to feel like I've run over ten black cats and walked under a hundred ladders.

An eleven month season is going to have the ups and downs, but this is far below the standards I have set for the last two and a half seasons and I will be looking at Thursday as potentially being the last day of Tennis Picks for this week if things keep going into the 'weird zone'.

At some point the strong numbers that continue to be returned have to produce more winners than losers, but I am not into chasing a bad beat and so another poor day on Thursday will mean I will look to reset and get back to the Tennis Picks at the start of next week.

Let's see how it goes and whether this week is just one coming out of the Twilight Zone.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: In the years ahead once the 'Big Three' have perhaps hung up their racquets, it would not be a major surprise to see Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner taking on one another at the business end of the Grand Slams. Both look talented enough to win Major prizes, although it is clear that Medvedev is someway further down the line in his career than his Italian opponent.

That is not a major surprise when you think that Daniil Medvedev is five years older than Sinner and the Russian has already reached the Final of a Grand Slam tournament when doing that at the US Open last September. Daniil Medvedev might be a little disappointed with his performance at the Australian Open last month and he was beaten in his first match in Rotterdam last week, but I expect better from him as he gets set to play this Second Round match in Marseille.

At the end of the day the numbers have remained strong for Medvedev and he can play at a level that may be tough to match for Jannik Sinner despite the obvious talent the Italian player has. A solid win in the First Round will have made Sinner feel good after a good run at Rotterdam last week, but there is still some inconsistency in his play which is not a massive surprise as he finds his feet at a higher level than the Challenger and Qualifying events that Sinner was formerly playing at.

So far in 2020 Jannik Sinner has won 62% of his service points played and he has held in 77% of his service games played on the hard courts which are reasonable marks, but nothing that should intimidate Daniil Medvedev. His return game is up alongside the very best on the ATP Tour and breaks in 29% of return games played on this surface suggests he will be able to at least put Sinner under some real pressure.

There is a real difference in the way the two players have been returning on the Tour and Jannik Sinner has struggled to a break in 19% of return games played on this surface. That might be good enough against some opponents, but against someone who can return serve like Daniil Medvedev can then it is a mark that can be exposed.

I think this will be a good match with some strong tennis played by both, but you do have to think Daniil Medvedev can edge out Jannik Sinner with at least one break more in each of the two sets that are likely needed to be played in this Second Round match.


Marin Cilic v Denis Shapovalov: 2019 was a difficult year for Marin Cilic, but he has looked like he could have a bounce back year this time around. The Croatian is back for the first time since the Australian Open where he reached the Fourth Round and he came from a set down to deservedly move into the Second Round here in Marseille.

The match up is much tougher in this Round, but Denis Shapovalov has been struggling for his form. The young Canadian is a definite star going forward, but he has lost four matches in a row which includes defeats in his first match played in both Montpellier and Rotterdam.

Those will have dented some of the confidence and Shapovalov has really been struggling in a number of facets of his game. Despite winning 65% of service points behind serve, the Canadian is holding in 80% of the games being played which is putting a lot of pressure on a return game which has still got a lot of room for improvement.

Over the last twelve months Denis Shapovalov has broken in 16% of return games played on the hard courts, but that number has slipped to 9% in 2020 which is not going to win too many matches. He has not been creating too many break point opportunities in recent matches and that is a real concern, although Denis Shapovalov did crush Marin Cilic when these two met at Indian Wells eleven months ago.

That came at a time when Shapovalov looked to be in better form overall though and Marin Cilic has opened 2020 in decent shape. He is serving very well which can at least keep his younger opponent under the cosh and Cilic has broken in 19% of return games which is considerably better than the mark Denis Shapovalov has produced in the last seven weeks.

It could be the key to the outcome of this match and I do think Marin Cilic can be backed as the underdog in this Second Round match in Marseille. At some point Denis Shapovalov will get back to winning ways and producing solid runs in events, but Marin Cilic may have enough of an edge here on both the serve and return to just get over the line and move into the Friday Quarter Final.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Juame Munar: A return to the clay courts will be welcomed by Juame Munar, but even then it has been a difficult time for the Spaniard during the South American Golden Swing. He has been struggling for consistency, and Munar will know the kind of test that is in front of him when facing an opponent who has reached multiple French Open Finals on this surface.

Dominic Thiem is playing in his first tournament since coming up a little short in the Australian Open Final last month as he could not quite convert a 2-1 lead in sets to a first Slam title. It is no surprise he has taken a couple of weeks off from the Tour to recharge the mental batteries more than anything else as Thiem managed to win some big matches Down Under before finding Novak Djokovic just a little too good on the day.

He is a usual name we see when the Golden Swing hits South America and Thiem will be pleased he was pushed a little bit on the First Round here in Rio de Janeiro as it will have got the competitive spirit bubbling. Dominic Thiem was still largely dominant against a local prospect and the Austrian has been able to get a lot out of his serve on the clay courts which has always put opponents under pressure to try and respond.

To really step up and perhaps win a Grand Slam on the clay courts you might want to see Thiem pick up his level on the return of serve. On this surface you would like to think he can improve the 29% mark of return games in which Thiem has broken serve and that will be especially important just to make life easier in some matches.

This could be a match in which we see that as Dominic Thiem has beaten Juame Munar twice before on the clay courts and has managed to break serve in 42% of return games played. At the same time he has barely been threatened on his own serve by the Spaniard and nothing we have seen so far in 2020 gives much encouragement for Munar here.

Juame Munar is holding just 68% of the service games played on the clay courts in 2020 and over the last twelve months that number is 75%. While that is ok against many, it doesn't bode well against someone like Thiem who has managed to get himself into comfortable positions in the head to head between them.


Borna Coric - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: There are a number of younger players on the ATP Tour who have looked like they are close to breaking through and giving the 'Big Three' players something new to think about. Others have flashed their potential, but could be left behind as the 'Next Gen' continues to develop and I do think 2020 is an important season for Borna Coric.

There is no doubting the talent that Coric possesses, but at 23 years old he needs to have a bounce back from what was an injury hit and loss of form 2019. It was a season much below the kind of level the Croatian had produced in 2018 and a poor start to 2020 is not very encouraging.

Over the last twelve months the clay courts have proven to be his most effective surface so this Golden Swing in South America is an important time for Borna Coric. An early loss in Buenos Aires was very disappointing, but Coric had a very good win over Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round here in Rio and that should give him a boost to take into this Second Round match where he is a significant favourite to progress.

Borna Coric won't just be battling someone across the court from him, but Thiago Seyboth Wild is going to have plenty of support from his compatriots in this match. The youngster is turning 20 years old next month, but Seyboth Wild has yet to really make an impact on the Tour that he would have liked and his clay court numbers are largely fairly average despite playing at a lower level than the one he will see in Rio for the majority of his career.

Thiago Seyboth Wild did have a win as an underdog in the First Round, but it was a very close match against some Ranked considerably lower down the World Rankings than Borna Coric. The Brazilian was on the court for almost four hours which is incredible and Seyboth Wild is going to be challenged by Borna Coric who has the stronger serve and the superior returning on this surface.

This is also the first time Seyboth Wild is going to be taking on an opponent Ranked inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and the step up might be too much with fatigue a potential issue too. I think Borna Coric will be better for the win over a solid clay courter in Londero a couple of days ago and he can win this match and cover a big looking mark for someone who has been in mixed form.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-13, - 19.48 Units (34 Units Staked, - 57.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 19th)

I've had a much busier Tuesday evening than I envisioned and that means I have not been able to put my thoughts down for any of the Tennis Picks I have for Wednesday.

It was a difficult Tuesday with three selections all losing and another ending in a retirement with the Pick being in a strong position. My one disappointment so far this season is that three of the four weeks in which I have made Tennis Picks have now started with a losing record.

Thankfully the other two times it has happened I have managed to turn things around with the process being trusted, but I do think it can be a difficult position from which to recover if it keeps happening and so I will be looking for much better starts to the week going forward.


Below you can see the Tennis Picks from the Second Round matches that are set to be played on Wednesday and I have updated the weekly totals. I will be back with a fuller post for the Thursday selections and hopefully with more winners being produced than not.


MY PICKS: Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dennis Novak @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.74 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.63% Yield)