Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 22nd February)

The Tennis continues on Thursday, although the tournament in Rio de Janeiro looks like it is going to be hit hard by the weather through the remaining few days there.

That is not the case for the WTA Dubai event and the two ATP tournaments in Doha and Los Cabos and the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread.

However, the time zones and the faster than usual nature of the scheduling this week means the markets are taking a little longer to be put together. That is contributing to the need to add selections after the initial thread is posted and that remains the situation.

Rain has meant the entire Second Round of the Rio de Janeiro tournament has been pushed into Thursday and both selections from Wednesday will be completed then. The week update is of every match that has been completed with a full result and that is at the bottom of the thread, while selections from the two tournaments played in the Western part of the world have also been added.

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Some of the bigger names have had a challenging time working their way through to the WTA Dubai Quarter Final and the same could be said for Marketa Vondrousova, the Wimbledon Champion.

Well that certainly could have been said about her Second Round win over Payton Stearns as the Czech player came through a decider, but she was much stronger in the Third Round win on Wednesday.

After a relatively disappointing start to the season, Marketa Vondrousova has to be pleased with the level shown in Dubai through the first couple of matches. It is the return of serve that has been really effective for her and only a slight improvement in the serving numbers will be needed if Vondrousova wants to start stringing some wins together.

She will have to be very much focused on this Quarter Final opponent Sorana Cirstea who continues to enjoy playing some of her best tennis of her career just when it felt like she should be past her prime.

Even a defeat on Thursday will not prevent Sorana Cirstea from heading back to her peak career World Ranking which was achieved eleven years ago, while further successes in Dubai may finally see the Romanian crack the top 20 of the Rankings for the first time.

That has to be the ambition for Sorana Cirstea going forward and she will be happy with her own level in Dubai having won three matches and fighting back from what looked like being a losing effort in her win over Donna Vekic. Over two hours were needed for Sorana Cirstea to win that match and it will be interesting to see if she can recover physically as well as mentally to prepare for this Quarter Final.

It has been a solid start to 2024 for Cirstea and her first serve can be a very strong weapon when operating at its best. However, too many second serves will give Marketa Vondrousova the impetus to take control of rallies and it may give the Wimbledon Champion an opportunity to turn the tables after two closes losses to this opponent over the last eighteen months.

Both were on hard courts so there will be a confidence in Sorana Cirstea when she enters this match, but Marketa Vondrousova may feel she has just missed out when the big points have been played in those defeats and this time she could be playing well enough to turn things around. That will be 'easier' to do if Cirstea is feeling the efforts of her Third Round win and the Czech lefty can be backed to find a way through to the Semi Final.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Over the next three months, Iga Swiatek has a lot of World Ranking points to defend, but she has an opportunity to extend the gap to World Number 2 Aryna Sabalenka with a strong end to the tournament in Dubai.

Adding the Miami Masters to her schedule will give Swiatek a bit of room for error, while the World Number 1 remains the player to beat when the clay court events roll around.

Playing through the Middle East has been a very positive time for Iga Swiatek and she reached the Final in Dubai last year having won the title in Doha. She has already defended that title and Iga Swiatek is going to be tough to stop in her bid to win the title here too.

The Australian Open Runner Up may have something to say about that and Qinwen Zheng has looked pretty decent in the last couple of Rounds after an early loss in Doha. There are still some questions for the World Number 7 to answer despite reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and that is largely down to the lack of top quality opponents that have been beaten so far.

Qinwen Zheng did beat Marketa Vondrousova at the United Cup in January, but after that, the highest Ranked player she has beaten in 2024 is World Number 35 Anastasia Potapova. That win was earned in the Third Round on Wednesday, but it is hard to ignore that Zheng has been well beaten in both matches played against Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek this season and was pretty poor in her loss to Leylah Fernandez last week.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents and that falls to 3-5 against the top 10. On the face of it that is not too bad, but the likes of Elena Rybakina, Swiatek and Sabalenka are a different proving ground for Qinwen Zheng.

She has lost all five previous matches against Iga Swiatek, including all three played on the hard courts.

Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for the fact she has taken a set from the World Number 1 in two of the three hard court matches, but she has not been able to maintain the level required and all of the defeats have been relatively comfortable by the end of the match.

The first serve will be crucial for Qinwen Zheng, but there is room for improvement behind the second serve and her return of serve and these are areas that Iga Swiatek should exploit.

In the last two hard court matches between the two, Iga Swiatek has really taken hold of the return of serve and something similar in Dubai is likely going to lead to another strong win for the top player on the WTA Tour.

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The biggest challenge for Ugo Humbert may be the fact he is facing one of the big names in recent French Tennis history.

However, Ugo Humbert has played Gael Monfils twice before and he has to be feeling very confident having won a title already this month and sitting in the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Gael Monfils is still plenty athletic around the court and he is capable of some big serving, which does make him dangerous.

He has played just about well enough in the first two matches in Doha to reach this Quarter Final, but Monfils is playing on the fine margins and someone like Ugo Humbert is playing well enough to force the veteran on the back foot.

It is much more difficult to keep making the big plays when put under pressure and the feeling is that Ugo Humbert will break down the Gael Monfils game.

This has the potential of being an awkward spread, but Humbert can do enough to move into the Semi Final behind another decent win in 2024.

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He is playing at a career high World Ranking after winning the title in Buenos Aires so Facundo Diaz Acosta will not be lacking for confidence.

A win over Stan Wawrinka in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro will have furthered that belief in his own tennis, but Diaz Acosta will remember a painful lesson that was dished out by Sebastian Baez just a couple of weeks ago.

This one is expected to be closer, but Baez continues to show he is a confident and solid clay courter and the expectation is that he franks the win he had over Facundo Diaz Acosta in Cordoba.

It is a tough spot for the lower Ranked of the compatriots having played all through last week, and that should give Sebastian Baez the narrow edge to progress with a win and a cover.

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games v Alex Michelsen: Both of these players have come through for me this week so it is is not easy to oppose either, but the expectation was that Jordan Thompson would be a stronger favourite than he is.

The Australian has continued playing at an extremely solid level when not facing the very top players on the Tour and the last month has been very good to him.

Jordan Thompson will be hoping a little bit of inexperience from Alex Michelsen also perhaps aids him in this match.

Alex Michelsen crushed Alex De Minaur in the Second Round for what may be his biggest Tour win in his career, but backing those up can be difficult the first couple of times around. That will be the challenge for him against someone like Jordan Thompson who is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

I do think the potential in Alex Michelsen is higher than Jordan Thompson has had in his career, but at this moment, the latter is playing well enough to just serve well enough and put enough pressure on his younger opponent to find a way past him into the Los Cabos Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 14-8, + 8.70 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.77% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)

The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.

All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.

There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.

Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.

Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.

Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.

Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.

Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.

Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.

You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.

Alexander Bublik v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.

All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.

However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.

It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.

While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.

The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.

In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.

Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.

Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.

One of those is backing Jaume Munar to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.

However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.

The expectation is also that Cameron Norrie, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.

The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.

While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving Jordan Thompson.

The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.

Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.

I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 20th February)

The WTA tournament being played in Dubai is using a big format and that means they are rushing through the Rounds.

To put it another way, the First Round may have been split over two days, but the entire Second Round is scheduled to be completed on Tuesday. This will mean the Third Round is played on Wednesday, the Quarter Finals on Thursday and the Semi Final and Final will be completed on Friday and Saturday.

Sixteen Second Round matches are set to be played on Tuesday and a number of courts are being used on what is going to be an extremely busy day for a tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

Matches are also scheduled for the tournaments being run by the ATP Tour, although the Picks, if any, from Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, as will the weekly update once all of the Monday scheduled matches are completed.

There are not going to be any Picks from the ATP Doha matches scheduled for Tuesday- the only one that even had me a little interested to find an angle proved unappealing in the end and that will be a tournament that will hopefully provide more options as we move into the Second Round and beyond.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: It was perhaps not as easy as the final scoreboard might have suggested, but Leylah Fernandez did play well enough to earn her spot in the Second Round at the WTA Dubai event. This keeps some positive momentum behind the Canadian who had not had the best start to 2024, but who played well in Doha last week and looks to have brung that form into this latest WTA 1000 tournament.

She was a favourite to beat Bernarda Pera and Leylah Fernandez will be the favourite again when she takes on Italian Jasmine Paolini in the Second Round.

Jasmine Paolini has had to Qualify for the WTA Dubai event in the last couple of years and managed to do that each time, but she had not won a main draw match until beating Beatriz Haddad Maia in the First Round on Sunday. The fightback within that match will have given Jasmine Paolini confidence and she is playing on a career high World Ranking mark.

Unsurprisingly there have been plenty of successes on the clay courts, but Paolini is a solid enough hard court player who deserves to be respected. She reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Jasmine Paolini has been able to snap a three match losing run in coming from behind to beat Haddad Maia.

There is no doubt that there is still room for improvement in her tennis on the hard courts- over the last twelve months it has been seen that the Paolini serve can be a little vulnerable when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface. That puts a bit more pressure on the return, which is clearly more challenging on the faster surfaces compared with her favoured clay courts.

You may not always expect Leylah Fernandez to have very strong serving numbers, but she does look after that shot well enough. If the Canadian can get enough first serves in play, she will believe she can dictate the tempo of this match and that will be key for Fernandez as she looks to earn a place in the Third Round.

The head to head will certainly give Leylah Fernandez plenty of confidence too having won all three previous matches against Jasmine Paolini. All of those have been on the hard courts and Fernandez is yet to drop a set, while the two most recent wins were both played in 2023.

Leylah Fernandez has had a clear edge in her serving games in the two wins produced over Jasmine Paolini last season and she won 51% of points played against the Paolini serve. That is likely to be the key to this match and the former US Open Runner Up can find a way to win and cover as she progresses to the Third Round of back to back tournaments in the Middle East.

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games v Payton Stearns: A win over Mirra Andreeva should give Payton Stearns a boost in confidence as she snapped a four match losing run to open her 2024 season.

It was a back and forth match against the talented teenager, but Stearns was able to come out on top and move into this Second Round match against Marketa Vondrousova.

After playing well at the US Open in September, Payton Stearns has really struggled for form in her hard court matches. Following her Fourth Round exit in New York City, Stearns had been on a 3-9 run on the Tour in hard court matches before getting the better of Andreeva in the First Round.

Marketa Vondrousova has not exactly been at her best level in 2024 herself, but there were some signs that she was getting closer last week in Doha. She had chances in her loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, although there are some question marks about Vondrousova's current form and whether she can cover such a big handicap mark.

She has beaten Payton Stearns pretty comfortably in the two previous matches- one of those was at Wimbledon, a tournament Marketa Vondrousova went on to win, and the other was at the US Open.

Much like Payton Stearns, Marketa Vondrousova followed the US Open with a relatively poor run of form that has seeped into the 2024 season.

However, over the last twelve months, Stearns has struggled to a 1-8 record when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her numbers have been pretty poor in that time too. While it is very difficult to trust Marketa Vondrousova on her current form, she has tended to be good enough to beat those outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and the Czech player has had an edge in the serving numbers when facing Payton Stearns.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Liudmila Samsonova: It looks a good opportunity to back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to continue her strong form from Doha as a slight underdog in this Second Round match.

A relatively comfortable win was produced in the First Round and there should not be any excuses about a long week in Doha in preventing Pavlyuchenkova from finding her best tennis in Dubai. The lack of distance between the tournaments and the fact that her Semi Final defeat was last Friday means there has been ample time to recover as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looks to get the better of her compatriot.

It had been a poor start to 2024 for Liudmila Samsonova who lost her first three matches, including a First Round exit at the Australian Open, but she had a solid run in Abu Dhabi.

Like her opponent, Samsonova found Elena Rybakina too hot to handle in that Semi Final in Abu Dhabi before another early exit in Doha last week. However, a solid First Round win in Dubai will have given Liudmila Samsonova a bit more confidence and she will know that her serve can be a massive weapon on relatively quick hard courts.

However, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can produce some dangerous serving of her own and looks to be playing with a bit more consistency of the two Russians.

Out of the two players, Pavlyuchenkova has been getting slightly more out of the return of serve and that could be key in a match that may come down to the fine margins.

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 games v Cristina Bucsa: The run to the Australian Open Quarter Final would have come as a surprise to those outside of Anna Kalinskaya's team. The challenge for the player is backing up that performance and building on reaching a new career high World Ranking, which is why the early defeat in Doha would have been a blow.

She has battled through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in Dubai and Anna Kalinskaya has won all three matches at the tournament without dropping a set.

This will have restored any drop in confidence and the hard court numbers in 2024 continue to impress.

Anna Kalinskaya deserves to be set as the favourite in this Second Round match against Cristina Bucsa who is playing in her third tournament this season as a Lucky Loser. She was beaten in the final Dubai Qualifier by Storm Sanders, but benefits from Ons Jabeur's subsequent withdrawal.

Cristina Bucsa did reach the Abu Dhabi Quarter Final as a Lucky Loser and she will feel this draw gives her a chance of extending her run in this tournament too. However, the Spaniard has not produced the same level as her opponent so far in 2024, especially when not playing the better players on the Tour, while Anna Kalinskaya will have fond memories of beating Bucsa in straight sets in Brisbane in January.

There was a massive edge in favour of the Russian on the return that day, but this match is expected to be closer. Of course it can't really be expected to be as one-sided as when Kalinskaya dropped just two games, but even a closer match is one in which the favourite can win and cover.

As long as Anna Kalinskaya can look after her own serve, the pressure should build on the Cristina Bucsa serve and the World Number 40 can find the breaks she needs to progress with some comfort.

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games v Nao Hibino: Any time a player reaches a Grand Slam Final, the target on their back will increase in size and opponents will really try and knock someone from off of their perch.

A 'nothing to lose' kind of approach to those matches can make it tough for the Grand Slam Finalist and especially when it has come unexpectedly.

Qinwen Zheng reached the Final at the Australian Open, but you have to factor in the way the draw opened up for her before she was well beaten in the Final by Aryna Sabalenka. Her performance in Doha was inconsistent to say the least and so it is perhaps a difficult spot in which to trust her to win, never mind cover a spread like this one.

However, Nao Hibino is not playing to the level she once was and she has suffered some one-sided defeats on the hard courts in 2024. Three wins in Dubai will have just given Hibino a boost in confidence to take into this Second Round match against an opponent who received a Bye through to this stage of the tournament, although the World Number 93 will know there is a considerable talent gap to bridge.

The Japanese player has always been comfortable on the hard courts, but she has a vulnerable serve and especially when she has been playing top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.

You don't always know what you are going to get from the Qinwen Zheng return, but she does have a big serve and that should at least contain some of the threat that Nao Hibino will bring to the court. Nao Hibino's return numbers have been pretty poor against the top players on the Tour over the last twelve months and it will build scoreboard pressure in favour of Zheng.

Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has won all fourteen hard court matches against players Ranked outside the top 50. The serve has dominated and she has won 47% of the return points played in those matches too.

Covering a spread like this one has been an issue with eight failures in those fourteen wins, but Nao Hibino has struggled to stay competitive within matches so Qinwen Zheng can be backed for a rare big cover here.

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: The biggest question about this Second Round match is how well Karolina Pliskova has recovered having played a lot of tennis over the last couple of weeks.

Winning the title in Cluj and then fighting her way through to the Doha Semi Final took its toll on the former World Number 1 and she was not able to compete in that match against Iga Swiatek.

Karolina Pliskova was able to beat veteran Shuai Zhang in the First Round, although that win is not massively impressive considering how long the latter has been out of competitive action. It was a solid, if unspectacular, performance from Karolina Pliskova and she may need to be a bit better when facing Ashlyn Krueger.

Coming from a set down to beat Caroline Garcia and having Monday as a day of rest is a benefit for the American, although it has been a relative struggle to find consistency for the 19 year old. She has put a few wins on the board in 2024, but Ashlyn Krueger knows the majority of those have been in Qualifying Rounds and this is a much tougher test.

None of the matches have been 'easy' though and wins over top 100 Ranked players have been racked up.

That will give Krueger confidence and she has been able to exert some control of matches with her serve. The teenager will need to serve well if Karolina Pliskova is bringing her best form to the court and the feeling is that the Czech player will ultimately have a bit too much know-how at this stage of their respective careers.

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 games v Lulu Sun: It looked like the run of beating everyone she has faced but Victoria Azarenka in 2024 might have been under threat when dropping four games in a row to lose the first set.

In previous years this might have ended up seeing Jelena Ostapenko just self-combust, but she has shown decent mental strength to recover and ultimately move through to the Second Round in Dubai without too many issues.

The Latvian will be a big favourite when playing Lulu Sun, the 22 year old from Switzerland who is Ranked outside the top 200 but who has been given a Wild Card into the Dubai tournament. A win over Paula Badosa should be a huge boost for Lulu Sun, even though the match ended prematurely at the end of the first set, while she did Qualify for main draw matches in Auckland and at the Australian Open.

It is still a big leap upwards to face Ostapenko in the form she has been in, while Sun had not been competitive in her two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Paula Badosa.

In fact she had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to the First Round here in Dubai and Lulu Sun had struggled to be very competitive. The first serve has been decent enough, but the second is vulnerable and finding enough quality on the return of serve is something the young player is still trying to develop.

An aggressive player like Jelena Ostapenko is likely going to offer a stern examination of the Lulu Sun game and the feeling is that the World Number 11 will continue her strong form to open this season.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: She reached the Final in Auckland before narrowly losing to Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina looked to be motoring in another strong Grand Slam effort at the Australian Open.

Three wins in straight sets took the Ukrainian into the Fourth Round in Melbourne, but an unexpected and shocking back issue forced Elina Svitolina to withdraw from that Fourth Round match after just three games had been played.

She has not really been able to explain what happened and Svitolina has spent some time away following the Australian Open, but she was able to produce a strong First Round win on Monday.

Now there is every chance Elina Svitolina can back that up against another veteran Tatjana Maria who has had a difficult start to the season. Her win in the First Round will be a boost, but Maria has suffered some extremely one-sided losses this season and it may be a tough match up for her in this one.

The five losses that Tatjana Maria has suffered this season have been by margins of eleven, seven, six, eleven and ten games- when she has lost, she has lost very, very easily.

The concern for her fans is that Tatjana Maria lost her last two hard court matches against Elina Svitolina in one-sided fashion, albeit the last of those was back in the 2018 US Open. Much has changed for both players in that time, but Elina Svitolina is still playing at a decent level after returning from giving birth and the edge has to be with the higher Ranked player.

Take away the retirement at the Australian Open and Elina Svitolina has won ten straight hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. Strong serving has set her on her way and Elina Svitolina can get plenty of joy in the return during this Second Round to produce a strong win.

Adding the Tennis Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Los Cabos with a few thoughts on those.

I do think both Sebastian Baez and Arthur Fils should both be able to cover big spreads- the former has been in decent form on the clay courts, while the latter is confident enough on the surface and taking on a young, inexperienced opponent.

Both of those players are competing in Rio, but in Los Cabos the play is on Marcos Giron to maintain the fine run of form he has been in through the month of February.

Taro Daniel can be dangerous on the hard courts, but Giron is playing well enough to grind him down and cover this relatively big handicap mark.

There are a couple of underdogs that could certainly thrive in the First Round in Los Cabos, but neither Flavio Cobolli nor Nuno Borges convinced me to add them to the selections.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-4, + 0.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 19th February)

The run through the Middle East before the majority of the Tour moves to the United States for back to back Masters events is an important time for many top names on the WTA and ATP.

It is especially the case for the WTA players with the events in Doha and Dubai both classed as 1000 events, while the ATP events in the same two venues are at 250 and 500 level.

Iga Swiatek won the title in Doha when getting the better of Elena Rybakina and both players will be looking to back up that run in Dubai. Another player in action is Australian Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka who competes for the first time since winning that Grand Slam title and only Jessica Pegula is unable to perform out of the very top players on this side of the Tour.

This should mean another strong event, although the Seeds tumbled very early last week- eventually the cream did rise to the top, but it does make the early Rounds a minefield to negotiate.

First Round action is completed in Dubai on Monday and the ATP events in Doha, Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro are move into main draw action too. With the massive time differences between events, prices for markets are not always out in good time in London and so some of the threads will have Picks added to them as has been the case through the start of the month.

The Tennis season has been very difficult so far and the month has been a poor one after the disappointment of the Australian Open.

This week has not started very well either, but it is only the start of the week and this is the time where the turnaround has to begin- that does put some pressure on the selections, but the demand for better has always been around the Tennis Picks and so the situation is not very different to normal.

However, things do have to change compared with the way they have been going- while the month has not been nearly as crushing as the start in January, it is very important to try and put a positive week on the board.

Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The big tournament in Dubai is an opportunity for players like Leylah Fernandez and Bernarda Pera to push their World Ranking much higher than their current positions. Both have enjoyed operating at a higher level previously, but it has been a tough twelve months for both Fernandez and Pera as they prepare to face off in the WTA Dubai First Round.

Having to come through the Qualifiers at events in 2024 has given Bernarda Pera some confidence to take into matches- she has already won two matches in Dubai so the conditions are clearly going to be comfortable for Pera.

She had to come from behind to win both Qualifying matches, and Bernarda Pera has won plenty of Qualifiers including two in Abu Dhabi earlier this month. However, she has only won one of her main draw matches in 2024 and the American is facing an opponent who had a decent run in Doha last week to build some confidence of her own.

It feels like a lot of time has passed since Leylah Fernandez reached the US Open Final and she has never really been able to produce that kind of success since.

Disappointing early exits at the United Cup and Australian Open in January would have been a blow, but Leylah Fernandez won three matches in Doha last week.

She can be difficult to trust to cover a spread like this one and that is because the Fernandez game is one that operates on fine margins- the Canadian does not have an overwhelming aspect to any part of her tennis and feels more like a reactive player than a proactive one with her speed around the court one of the stronger Leylah Fernandez attributes.

These players did meet on a hard court in Washington last season and Leylah Fernandez was a relatively comfortable winner.

The return game of both players has not been good enough to compete with the very top players on the Tour, but Leylah Fernandez does have a slight edge over Bernarda Pera in her serving numbers. It was also the case when they met in Washington several months ago and the Canadian can find a way to win and cover in this First Round match.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: Another strong showing in Doha has pushed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova back towards her natural place on the WTA Tour. Injury had contributed to a slip down the World Rankings, but she reached the Semi Final in Doha on Friday and Pavlyuchenkova will be looking to back that up with the short move to Dubai for another WTA 1000 event.

This is not an easy First Round match, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been serving well in 2024 and that has contributed to winning more often than not.

First up for the Russian is a match against Marie Bouzkova who had reached her career best World Ranking fourteen months ago, but who has lost four of her last five matches having begun the year by reaching the Quarter Final in Auckland.

Confidence will have been affected by that run of results, but Bouzkova has to be respected with her performances perhaps a little stronger than those results have been.

However this looks like a tough test for Marie Bouzkova.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has really been playing well against those players Ranked outside the top 20 and her numbers have been very impressive in those matches. If she can maintain that level, Pavlyuchenkova should have the ability to win this First Round contest and cover the spread set.

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Xiyu Wang: The suggestion is that Jelena Ostapenko did not want to shake Victoria Azarenka's hand at the end of their match in Doha because of a change in policy set out by the Latvian government. Much like Ukrainian players, Latvian players are now not expected to shake hands with opponents from Russia or Belarus, but Azarenka was not buying that.

The fact is that Ostapenko offered a racquet tap and there is clearly no love lost between them.

Jelena Ostapenko has to be frustrated considering she has lost all three matches played against Victoria Azarenka in 2024- that frustration is higher when you think she has a 14-0 record against every opponent faced.

She should be good enough to see off Xiyu Wang in the First Round, even though Wang wil be feeling happy with her tennis having crushed two opponents in the Qualifiers. Xiyu Wang did not drop a set in those two wins, although this is going to be a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Nothing can be taken for granted in this match with Wang showing she can be very competitive if her opponent is not playing at their very best.

However, the performances against top 50 players over the last twelve months have not been good enough and Xiyu Wang has struggled on the return of serve.

There is no doubt that Jelena Ostapenko can be a little hard to trust with her overly aggressive style potentially leading to errors. She has had twelve wins against players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2024 and Ostapenko has covered this line in ten of those matches.

While it won't be easy, Ostapenko may bounce back from the disappointing defeat in Doha to put another win on the board here.

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 games v Lucia Bronzetti: A Lucky Loser has entered the main draw after Marta Kostyuk was forced to withdraw, but this is a tough match for Lucia Bronzetti.

The Abu Dhabi Runner Up was beaten early in Doha and Daria Kasatkina has had a mixed start to the season in terms of her overall level of performance.

The tennis she produces means it can be something of a challenge for Kasatkina when it comes to covering big spreads- her serve can be vulnerable and she can be outhit, but it is very difficult to trust Lucia Bronzetti to be able to push the World Number 13 when you think she has lost eight matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents.

The Italian has really found it tough over the last twelve months when it comes to hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents too. Lucia Bronzetti is 1-10 in those matches and her second serve has been vulnerable, while she has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as she would have liked.

As mentioned, the Daria Kasatkina serve can be vulnerable which makes it hard to cover big spreads.

However, Kasatkina has won nearly 50% of return points played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 over a twelve month period in hard court matches. That ability to put pressure on the return can show up here and Daria Kasatkina may find the breaks of serve needed to earn a relatively comfortable passage into the Second Round.

It is a pretty busy day in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro too with the First Round matches getting underway.

I do like both Alex Michelsen and Roman Safiullon to win and cover in Los Cabos- the two players are in decent nick, but their opponents have been struggling for consistency and that could show up in those First Round matches.

Over in Rio, Cameron Norrie is the defending Champion and is expected to beat Hugo Dellien despite a poor tournament in Buenos Aires last time out. It can be tough to back Norrie to cover any kind of spread with his tennis played in tight margins and the fact he can play up or down to an opponent's level, but he should have enough to win his First Round match with the breaks of serve needed.

Alejandro Tabilo is playing a home player who had a very good year on the clay courts in Thiago Seyboth Wild.

The start to 2024 has not been nearly as effective though and Seyboth Wild is going to have to serve very well if Alejandro Tabilo is operating anywhere near his best form.

Back to back wins over the Brazilian should give Tabilo confidence too and he can edge past Thiago Seyboth Wild.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex Michelsen - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roman Safiullon - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 1st)

I didn't have a lot of luck on Wednesday with the Tennis Picks being made and a couple of games would have literally swung the day to be a very strong one. In saying that, I can't complain whenever a winning record is put on the board and that continues to turn this week back around.

On Thursday I will be adding any Tennis Picks to this thread once the markets in Washington and Los Cabos have been set. Those matches are being put together during the night as the full Second Round is completed in both events to try and ensure the tournaments are completed before the Canada Masters begins this weekend.

Hopefully it can be one more positive day to get this week back into the black. I will also update the weekly totals once all of the Wednesday Picks have been played.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Playing in front of home crowds should always be a boost for players and I do think someone like Frances Tiafoe will thrive in those kind of conditions. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round, but the level of opponent increases significantly when he faces Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round.

There has been a consistency to the Tiafoe performances on the hard courts and the numbers he has produced in 2019 are virtually identical to 2018. In both seasons the American has held 81% of his service games played on the surface, and he has won 64% of service points played in each year too.

Even on the return there are similarities with Tiafoe breaking in 19% of return games in 2018 and moving that to 20% in 2019. This season he has more breaks but he is winning slightly fewer return points in terms of a percentage and Tiafoe's numbers are fairly average on the hard courts.

Now Frances Tiafoe has to face Daniil Medvedev who only recently reached a new career high of Number 9 in the World Rankings. The Russian has shown significant improvement on the hard courts in 2019 and he is playing some of his best tennis on the surface this year.

He has continued to prove to be effective behind serve having held 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019. The numbers are similar to 2018 in terms of hold percentage, but Medvedev is actually winning a higher percentage of points behind serve, while the real key to his success on the surface has been the improvement in the return.

Last year Daniil Medvedev broke in 24% of return games on the hard courts, but he has improved that number to 28% in 2019. He looked strong in his Second Round win over Bjorn Fratangelo and I think he can get the better of Tiafoe in this one too.

I was hoping that Medvedev would still be a little under-rated by the layers, but they are on top of him at the moment. However I think he should have been favoured to cover a handicap number slightly higher than where the line has been set and I will back Daniil Medvedev to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 1.08 Units (38 Units Staked, - 2.84% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 30th)

There are plenty of matches scheduled for Tuesday at the various tournaments being played and you can read my selections from the First Round below.

I have noted that the ATP Washington event will move onto the Second Round on Tuesday too, but those markets have yet to be formulated and any Picks from those matches scheduled for the day will be added to this thread on the day around lunchtime.

At that point I will also update the weekly totals after a mixed start to the week with two of the three underdogs I picked outright losing in the final set. Hopefully Tuesday will prove to be a much more productive day and get this week moved back into the black.


Cori Gauff - 2.5 games v Zarina Diyas: A huge spotlight shone on Cori Gauff at Wimbledon earlier this month as the 15 year old Qualified for the main draw and then reached the second week of the third Grand Slam of the 2019 season. The potential the young American has shown seemed to come to fruition in SW19, but the new expectations and exposure Gauff had means expectations have been raised and her own fanbase has also increased tremendously.

Cori Gauff is still at an age where she is not allowed to join the Tour full time unlike in past years and that means she has to pick and choose her events. It also means it is difficult for Gauff to improve her immediate World Ranking to ensure automatic entry into some of the tournaments to be played this summer, but Gauff was high enough to enter the Washington Qualifiers and made light work of her two opponents to reach the main draw.

Her peak World Ranking came at the end of Wimbledon, but Cori Gauff is almost certainly going to move above that mark as long as she can win at least one match in the main draw in the nation's capital. She is favoured to see off Zarina Diyas, but the veteran is someone that has to be respected in this First Round match.

There have been some solid numbers produced by Diyas on the hard courts in the last couple of years, but she has not been as strong on the surface at the main WTA level in 2019. Zarina Diyas has played well in a couple of ITF events which have seen her reach 17 hard court wins for the season, but only 6 of those have come at this level as the Kazakhstan player has seen her numbers drop on both the serve and the return compared with 2018.

This is only the second top 100 Ranked player that Gauff would have played on the hard courts in 2019 and she was comfortably beaten by Daria Kasatkina in the Second Round in Miami back in March. It has to be a concern when backing her as the favourite as there is limited numbers that we can look at considering the lack of main Tour tennis the young American has played.

We do know that Cori Gauff has a very good serve that should be very effective on the hard courts if Zarina Diyas is not quite up to her best level on the return. The latter has also been beaten by a couple of young, up and coming opponents already on this surface in 2019 although Diyas has only lost one match out of six played against someone Ranked outside the top 100.

I do think Gauff is going to be over-rated by the layers on the form she showed at Wimbledon, but I think this is a good chance for her to come through the First Round in Washington. The veteran won't roll over easily, but Zarina Diyas has lost to some of the younger players on the Tour who are looking to make their step up onto the main Tour level and I think Gauff can add to that list against her.


Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Allie Kiick: There are some really talented players coming through the ranks in American tennis, but Allie Kiick has been given a Wild Card into the Washington main draw despite not really being amongst the players with big expectations on their shoulders. She is Ranked at Number 130, although Kiick would likely surpass her career best mark of Number 126 if she can win this First Round match.

It won't be easy for the American considering the lack of tennis she has played at this level. Allie Kiick was beaten in the opening Qualifying Rounds in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami and also failed to get through the Qualifiers to reach the Australian Open main draw.

A couple of solid runs at the level below the main WTA Tour would have given Kiick some belief, but now she faces a quality operator in Monica Puig in the First Round in Washington.

To be honest this has not been a great season for Puig who won the Olympic Gold Medal on a hard court in 2016. In each of the last three seasons Puig has produced at least 22 wins on the hard courts, but she is 4-7 in 2019 and her service numbers are considerably down on the standards she has set between 2016 and 2018.

Even the return of serve is slightly down on her numbers, but Puig has felt the pressure of not being to get through her service games as effectively as she has previously. It does make her a vulnerable player to back, especially as she has not played any competitive tennis since going out in the Second Round at Wimbledon, but the Puerto Rican should be happy with the match up here.

The Allie Kiick return could be a big weapon for her if the upset is going to be secured, but I also expect her own serve to be challenged by Monica Puig. The key for the latter is to not give her opponent too much confidence by making a slow start in this match and as long as she can avoid doing that, I think Puig can win and cover in this one.


Donna Vekic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: At 23 years old it may be something of a surprise to read that I think Donna Vekic needs to start making serious inroads with her career if she is going to fulfil the potential so many believed she had. It does feel like Vekic has been on the Tour forever, but there might not be a big window for her to develop into a top 10 player with a new crop of talented youngsters making the headlines in 2019.

The Croatian is playing arguably her best tennis on the hard courts in her career and she did reach a peak Ranking last month, although the Donna Vekic fans will be disappointed that their player has not been able to crack the top 20 yet.

There has been a clear improvement in the level of performance produced by Vekic in each of the last four years. Her serve has been one that has produced a higher percentage of points on both the first and second serve in each of the past four seasons and Vekic has also improved the percentage of points won against the opponent's serve in each of those years too.

Donna Vekic is winning 46% of return points on the hard courts in 2019 and that is the kind of returning which should put plenty of pressure on Misaki Doi. The Japanese left hander has been pretty average on the hard courts in 2019 and was hammered by Vekic when these players met in Acapulco earlier this year.

A lot of the positives have come against players much lower down the Rankings, but Misaki Doi is only 2-6 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2019. The serve is not as effective in those matches, but the real slippage comes on the return of serve and I do think Donna Vekic is going to be someone that should be able to run through the majority of her service games without being under immense pressure.

It happened when they met in Acapulco where Vekic did not face a break point in her dominant win over Doi. On that day the Croatian also won 53% of return points played and I think she will have the edge in this one on both sides of the court which should give Donna Vekic a chance to win and cover in this First Round match.

I would be surprised if Vekic only loses three games again, but I think she will still do enough to cover the mark set by the layers.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: These two players both turn 20 years old in the next month and both have entered the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to some positive performances in 2019. Both Miomir Kecmanovic and Alexei Popyrin have played plenty of tennis on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour, but it is the Serbian who has perhaps been the more consistent.

I backed Kecmanovic a couple of times with success last week and I do believe he is rightly favoured in this First Round match. That isn't a disrespect to Popyrin who reached the Quarter Final in Atlanta last week along with Kecmanovic, but it is Kecmanovic who has been the more consistent player of the two.

Both have played a fair few matches off the main Tour, but there is enough data to take away from their performances in hard court matches at the highest level. The serve has been key for both Kecmanovic and Popyrin and I expect it is going to be an important part of their success or failure on Tuesday too.

Miomir Kecmanovic has held 85% of his service games played on the hard courts in main Tour events, while Alexei Popyrin is at 83%. The narrow edge also belongs to Kecmanovic as far as service points are concerned having won 67% of the points played behind his serve compared with 66% for Popyrin.

Where the match could be won and lost is the success the two players can have on the return of serve with break point chances expected to be few and far between in hot conditions in Washington. This is an area where Kecmanovic has had a significant edge over Popyrin having broken in 21% of return games on the surface compared with the Australian's number of 15%.

You can't always factor in how a player will perform on the break points, especially when there are not expected to be a host of them either way, but the slightly more productive return of Kecmanovic could be the key to the outcome of this match. It will likely be close and I would not be that surprised if three sets are needed, but I will back the slight favourite to cover in this one.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On the face of things it is quite stunning to see Grigor Dimitrov outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings, but it says a lot about how his last eighteen months have gone. Another upset last week saw Dimitrov beaten in the First Round in Atlanta, and he really has become a player that I will not back too often as he is over-rated by the layers.

In saying that I do think he could be potentially under-rated in this First Round match against Steve Johnson. The two players have met six times on the Tour and it is Grigor Dimitrov who has won four of those matches, which also includes winning their last three matches on the hard courts.

The last of those was in 2017 and things are much different for Dimitrov these days, although his numbers on the hard courts in 2019 suggests he should have had better than a 6-4 record that he holds. In 2018 the Bulgarian won 16 matches on the hard courts, but he won a fewer percentage of points played behind both serve and return than Dimitrov has in 2018. That suggests he is not playing the big points as well as he should be when seeing he is holding 81% of his service games compared with 83% last year, but he has been much more successful when it comes to breaking an opponent's serve.

The return game is going to be tested by American Steve Johnson who has surprisingly chosen to play in Los Cabos rather than Washington this week. Johnson is playing his first hard court match since the Miami Masters in March and he is just 4-7 on the surface this year, although Johnson has not been playing as poorly as that losing record would suggest.

The American has held 83% of his return games, but Johnson's struggles on the return of serve continues to blight him. Steve Johnson has won 33% of return points played and he has broken in just 15% of return games played compared with Grigor Dimitrov who is at 39% and 25% in those categories respectively.

It is that edge on the return which makes me favour Dimitrov in this match and in their past meetings on the hard courts we have seen the Bulgarian hold 89% of his service games compared with Johnson at 75%. That might not seem a huge difference, but it is significant enough to give Grigor Dimitrov the edge in this one.

He is a vulnerable favourite when you consider the inconsistent results Dimitrov has earned all season, but I think he can edge out Steve Johnson here. I will look for him to cover in very hot conditions in Los Cabos on Tuesday in this First Round match.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Injuries have been blighting Kyle Edmund's season and it was a factor in his defeat at Wimbledon to Fernando Verdasco when blowing a 2-0 lead in sets. He has had a few weeks to recover and get ready for the hard court season as Edmund looks to reverse his slip down the World Rankings and receiving a bye into the Second Round at Washington means he has had a few more days to get used to the hot conditions at this event.

Having a bye does mean that Edmund is facing an opponent who has the confidence of winning a First Round match and Lloyd Harris will be looking to take advantage of the British player if he is not at 100%.

Kyle Edmund has been able to play some strong hard court tennis in 2019, although his best result has been winning a Challenger event played at Indian Wells at the end of February. When he has played at the main Tour level Edmund has pretty consistent kind of results on the surface with a strong hold percentage but perhaps not being as strong on the return of serve as he would like.

However he should have the edge over Lloyd Harris who has not had as strong a year on the surface as he may have expected, especially as much of his time is still spent below the main Tour level. The South African came from a set behind to beat Ricardas Berankis in the First Round to improve to 2-4 in hard court matches on the ATP Tour, but Harris has only been holding in 63% of service games played and that number is not that much better at 78% overall in 2019.

Like Edmund, Harris is not the best returner on the surface and I do think the British player's superior serve can be the difference on the day. These two players met earlier in the season and it was Edmund who dominated the match despite needing three sets to beat Harris. The difference in serve proved to be the big factor on the day and I think the same may happen in Washington on Tuesday.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Karen Khachanov: At 34 years old you would have to guess that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's best days are now behind him, but he should be able to vastly improve his current World Ranking in the weeks and months ahead. There are very few points for Tsonga to defend from 2018 and he is playing well enough to at least make an impact at the next few events to push up the Rankings from his Number 70 spot.

He was a solid First Round winner on Monday and Tsonga is back in action on Tuesday as a slight underdog in a virtual pick 'em Second Round match against Karen Khachanov. These two players have met twice before, but not since 2017, and Tsonga will be looking for a third win over the young, improving Russian.

Karen Khachanov has seen his numbers drop significantly from the level produced on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2019. He is just 7-7 in matches on the surface, while Khachanov has seen his percentage of games held behind serve drop from 88% to 83%. The Russian has also seen the return of serve decline with breaks earned in 22% of return games in 2018 dropping to 17% in 2019.

Now he has to face an opponent in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been able to produce some big serving and who can expose some of the limitations Khachanov has had on the return of serve. The Frenchman is also a fairly limited returner, but he may have the edge on the serve which can be the difference when it comes to what looks like being a close match.

It can't be ignored that Tsonga is 0-3 on the hard courts against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2019, although he has only faced Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Novak Djokovic. Both of those players are significantly better returners than Khachanov though and I think Tsonga will enjoy this kind of match up a bit more with the aggression coming from the other side of the net meaning points are going to be relatively short.

This Second Round match going the distance would not be a surprise, but I think Tsonga may have the edge with the match under his belt in these conditions. In each of the last two seasons, Karen Khachanov has lost his first hard court match played between Wimbledon and the US Open and a strong serving day from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will give him a chance to add to that run here.

MY PICKS: Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 3.60 Units (8 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 3rd)

I have begun writing this post out on Thursday, but the lack of angles from the ATP Kitzbuhel Semi Final matches meant I was always going to wait until Friday before posting any Tennis Picks.

Looking back at the overnight results from Thursday and it has become clear that this week has been turned around effectively after opening up with a 0-4 start.

Since then the Tennis Picks have gone 13-3 to move this week into a positive position, but I do want to put a neat bow on things by making sure there is something to add to the season totals. We still have a couple of days this week before the first of the back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati so there is still work to be done.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: If you're looking for a player to be a genuine contender for the US Open title at the end of this month and want to oppose the favourites then I think Juan Martin Del Potro could be the man you want on your side.

He is currently at double digit quotes to win a second US Open title but that could shorten significantly if he has a strong time on the hard courts over the next three weeks. The Argentinian has already showed how good he can be on this surface by winning titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells already this season, while Del Potro backed those weeks up by reaching the Miami Semi Final.

Being injury free is always the question mark around Del Potro these days, but he is coming into this month as healthy as he has looked all season and is also closing in on his highest ever World Ranking. There also has been no suggestions he has arrived in Los Cabos to only enjoy the beach with a couple of dominating wins, although Damir Dzumhur provides a tougher challenge.

Even then Del Potro has some stunning numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and his return game has been of a similar level to when he won the US Open back in 2009. Those will put some real pressure on Dzumhur who has not been at his best on the hard courts in 2018 and I do think the serve is going to be under attack for much of this match.

Del Potro has won both previous matches against Dzumhur and he has been strong in both of those wins. I anticipate he will have the majority of break point chances in this match and I like Del Potro to cover a big looking number on his way to the Final here.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: On Thursday I backed David Goffin to cover this same number against another talented youngster coming up on the Tour and he managed to do that very comfortably. I have little doubt it will be tougher for him when he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I will look for the Belgian to do that again.

There is no doubt that Tsitsipas is developing in a manner which will make him a threat to win many Grand Slam titles in the years ahead and he has all the makings of a future World Number 1. However Tsitsipas is still a work in progress and has to get more out of his return game if he is going to take the next step in his very young career.

The serve is a huge weapon for the Greek player though and it is one that can build pressure on opponents when Tsitsipas is at his best. Winning two matches in Washington already suggests he is near his top level especially when you look at the way Tsitsipas has beaten Jared Donaldson and James Duckworth but this is a significant step up in class.

David Goffin might not have the eye-catching serve that some players have, but it has been good enough for him and he is holding almost 80% of his service games on the hard courts. That should be a number he can replicate against Tsitsipas who has struggled on the return, while that also should give Goffin a chance to go on the attack when in his own return games.

The Belgian has a very good return game and I do think he can put some pressure on Tsitsipas in this Quarter Final from that side of things. I expect Goffin to really try and get after the second serve and I like his chances of beating Tsitsipas in a tight match.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The Australian Open was a huge tournament for Elise Mertens who reached the Semi Final Down Under, but playing on the hard courts has been much more difficult for her since then.

Since that stunning run through the draw which came up a little short, Mertens' numbers have really declined and it is perhaps no surprise that she is just 4-5 on this surfaced since February.

Now she has to face a confident Johanna Konta who backed up her crushing of Serena Williams with another strong performance in the Second Round. Konta inflicted the worst loss in Serena's career and she is a player that has had considerable success on the hard courts over the last couple of years to believe she could round into some good form over the next month despite a disappointing 2018 so far.

To be fair to Konta, her numbers on the hard courts have been very similar to the last couple of years but she has not been able to win the close matches to prolong her run in tournaments. The win over Serena Williams may be the shot of confidence Konta needed to make those close losses turn into close wins and I think she is the superior hard court player in this match.

These players met at the Miami Premier Event earlier this season and it was Konta who crushed Mertens for the loss of just three games. I doubt it is as straight-forward as that again, but I do think Konta can keep things rolling in San Jose by winning this match and covering the number.


Venus Williams - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: I picked Timea Babos to beat Maria Sakkari on Thursday and that has to be the worst pick I have made this week as Babos won a single game in a heavy loss.

However I am not willing to knock my theory on the head that Sakkari is massively overachieving in terms of her results at the moment and her numbers don't back her up.

I have to give her some credit for protecting the second serve as she has done, but Sakkari's return numbers are down and now she faces Venus Williams who is still playing at a decent level. The American is clearly in decline these days but she has managed to produce a solid 10-4 record on the hard courts and the serve remains a decent weapon for her.

The key to this match is that Venus Williams is still returning much better than Sakkari and I don't think the latter will be able to get away with too many second serves in this one. All credit to Sakkari for putting the wins together as she has, but I do want to oppose her here even if I am on the wrong side of things for a second day in a row.

I was expecting Venus Williams to be a much stronger favourite than is the case and I will look for the veteran to get this done and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, + 24.10% Yield)