Tennis Picks 2023 (August 1st)

Monday was a busier day than usual for scheduled matches on the Tour, but nothing of interest came up for the Picks.

After a solid end to last week, I am looking for the momentum to continue on Tuesday where I have a single selection from Kitzbuhel.

Any Picks from Washington and Los Cabos will be added to this thread.

Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 games v Marc-Andrea Huesler: A really poor run of form on the clay courts will be difficult to shift for Marc-Andrea Huesler as he takes on an opponent who has put some strong results together on the surface.

Daniel Altmaier is at a career best World Ranking and he can move into the top 50 for the first time with a decent run here.

Two years ago he reached the Semi Final in Kitzbuhel, while the German reached the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week. Overall his numbers on the clay courts have been pretty good and he is facing an opponent who has lost his last seven matches on the red dirt, including First Round defeats in Gstaad and Umag in the last couple of weeks.

The challenge only increases for Huesler when noting he has lost both previous matches to Daniel Atmaier and both of those were on the clay courts- he was beaten in Geneva two years ago, but Altmaier also won their meeting in the First Round at the French Open without dropping a set.

On that day Daniel Altmaier had a significant edge on the serve and he should be able to get into the Marc-Andrea Huesler serve in this First Round match too. I would expect Altmaier to have the majority of Break Points in the match and he is playing well enough to believe he can get the better of the Swiss player who has been struggling on the clay as much as he has in 2023.

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Two players who have had injury issues to drop them well out of the top 100 of the World Rankings are hoping the US hard courts gives them an opportunity to get closer to the level they once showed.

This only makes this a bigger match for both Lloyd Harris and Kei Nishikori, who enjoyed strong tournaments in Atlanta last week.

Out of the two, Kei Nishikori is perhaps going to be offered a couple more Wild Cards into the biggest events compared with Lloyd Harris and so the harder path back towards the top of the ATP Tour will definitely need to be treaded by the South African. His results on the hard courts have been mixed, but the run in Atlanta will have helped his confidence, although he is facing a Kei Nishikori that has found a decent level on his return to the Tour.

Taylor Fritz ended his run last week and went on to win the title in Atlanta, but Kei Nishikori has won a title at Challenger level on his favourite surface and the former US Open Finalist will still feel more is to come.

Of course you can never really know how your body is going to react after such a long lay off from the Tour and playing weekly is tough, but Kei Nishikori does hold a win over Lloyd Harris on the hard courts of Washington and that will give him a boost.

He should have the edge on the return of serve too and Kei Nishikori can battle past this opponent.

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: You have to first note that Yoshihito Nishioka made the Final in Washington last year and so has to be afforded a lot of respect as potential being a 'horse for course' in an environment he would have enjoyed.

However, the opponent has been less positive for Nishioka who has lost all three pro matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and on all three surfaces on the Tour. The defeat on the hard courts was a premature one as Nishioka had to withdraw in the middle of the match, but the defeats on the clay and grass have been much more routine and this is a tough match up for him.

2023 has already proved to be a tough year on the hard courts for Yoshihito Nishioka who was beaten early in Atlanta last week and has been beaten in his last five matches played on the surface.

In saying that, Emil Ruusuvuori had lost a bit of confidence having lost five matches in a row before arriving in Washington, but he was a solid winner in the First Round, which should help. He has shown he is a solid hard court player and Ruusuvuori is expected to have an edge on the serve, as has been the case in the previous meetings between these players too.

When you have been struggling for confidence, nothing will come easy, but the win in the First Round is expected to provide a major boost for the player from Finland. There should be breaks of serve both ways, but I am expecting Emil Ruusuvuori to come out on top more often than not and get the better of Yoshihito Nishioka again.

MY PICKS: Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 2nd)

Friday is an important day for me personally so this thread will be the last one of the week.

The next Tennis Picks will come from the Canadian Masters which begin this weekend, although my first selections will be made on Monday. I will update the season totals in that thread and that will include the results from this week as I won't be updating the results from Thursday in the Friday thread.

My selections are based from the matches that have already been set for Friday in the Quarter Finals so that means there won't be anything from ATP Washington or ATP Los Cabos where the Friday line up will be completed during the night in the United Kingdom.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Casper Ruud: It has been a very productive month for Albert Ramos-Vinolas between the conclusion of Wimbledon and the main tournaments in the US hard court swing beginning this weekend. The Spaniard entered three clay court events being played with the last two being on the main Tour and he has reached two Semi Finals and won a title in Gstaad last week.

He could have perhaps been feeling a little fatigued after playing as much tennis as he has and I think that was part of the reason Ramos-Vinolas struggled through his First Round win over Marton Fucsovics here in Kitzbuhel. After dropping the first set to the Hungarian, Albert Ramos-Vinolas has won six sets in a row in Austria and he has been playing some of his best tennis of 2019 over the last few weeks.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas has held 86% of his service games played on the clay courts since the start of July and he has also found his feet with the return of serve having broken in 33% of return games played. This week Ramos-Vinolas has won 64% of the service points played and he has won 41% of the return points as confidence continues to flow through the Spaniard as he looks for yet another chance to win a title this weekend.

This is not going to be an easy match against Casper Ruud who is very comfortable on the clay courts and whose best results have been on the surface. He has perhaps not been as consistent as Ramos-Vinolas when playing on the clay over the last month, but the Norwegian has been in fine form in Kitzbuhel which has to be respected.

Like Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Casper Ruud has only dropped one set which came in the First Round. His numbers have been considerably better than what he had been producing on the clay over the last three weeks, and that is both on the serve and return, but Ruud has to forget the fact that he has lost all three previous matches against Ramos-Vinolas and all of those have been on the clay courts.

Their match in Madrid in the Qualifiers was very close and Ramos-Vinolas was perhaps a little fortunate to win when you look at the way the first two sets. However he looks to be in confident mood at the moment and I think he can be backed to see off Casper Ruud in this match and he can cover the number in the victory too.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: You could have made a case for three of the Semi Finalists in Kitzbuhel, but I am not sure you could say the same for Lorenzo Sonego. The Italian had been on a losing run on the main Tour in clay court matches, but he has battled through a couple of Rounds where it would have taken one or two points to swing against him. A stronger win over Fernando Verdasco in the Quarter Final will be a boost for Sonego's confidence, but now he has to play a home favourite.

For someone who has the kind of clay results that Dominic Thiem has produced in recent years, it is something of a surprise that he has only ever reached one Final in Kitzbuhel and he is yet to win the title here. Prior to this tournament Thiem was only 8-7 in matches in Kitzbuhel, but he has looked to be in decent form in the first two matches he has won in the 2019 edition.

The Austrian is yet to drop a set, but he will feel he can get more out of his serve having held just 78% of the service games he has played in the tournament. It is something of a surprise when you think he has won 68% of the points played behind the serve, but Dominic Thiem has only saved 3 of the 7 break points he has faced and you would think his serve would be capable of protecting those big points a little better.

Lorenzo Sonego has been slightly better at holding serve with 79% of his games being protected so far in Kitzbuhel. However I have to point out he has won 63% of points behind serve so you would have to think he is going to be challenged by Dominic Thiem who has broken in 45% of return games played having won 47% of return points in the two matches he has won.

The return of serve looks to be a big difference between the players as Sonego has only broken in 20% of return games played. That number is only slightly better than his seasonal number on the clay courts and I do think the Italian will find it difficult to get into a lot of the Dominic Thiem service games as long as the favourite does not feel the pressure of trying to reach a home Final for only a second time in his career at this event.

Dominic Thiem is the superior returner and also has the edge when it comes to the serve and I think that should show up on the day. This is a big number if Thiem is not being a little better when it comes to the big points on his own serve, but he should have the majority of chances in this one to get ahead and I think that will see him break down the Italian who has had a surprising week.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 1st)

I didn't have a lot of luck on Wednesday with the Tennis Picks being made and a couple of games would have literally swung the day to be a very strong one. In saying that, I can't complain whenever a winning record is put on the board and that continues to turn this week back around.

On Thursday I will be adding any Tennis Picks to this thread once the markets in Washington and Los Cabos have been set. Those matches are being put together during the night as the full Second Round is completed in both events to try and ensure the tournaments are completed before the Canada Masters begins this weekend.

Hopefully it can be one more positive day to get this week back into the black. I will also update the weekly totals once all of the Wednesday Picks have been played.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Playing in front of home crowds should always be a boost for players and I do think someone like Frances Tiafoe will thrive in those kind of conditions. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round, but the level of opponent increases significantly when he faces Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round.

There has been a consistency to the Tiafoe performances on the hard courts and the numbers he has produced in 2019 are virtually identical to 2018. In both seasons the American has held 81% of his service games played on the surface, and he has won 64% of service points played in each year too.

Even on the return there are similarities with Tiafoe breaking in 19% of return games in 2018 and moving that to 20% in 2019. This season he has more breaks but he is winning slightly fewer return points in terms of a percentage and Tiafoe's numbers are fairly average on the hard courts.

Now Frances Tiafoe has to face Daniil Medvedev who only recently reached a new career high of Number 9 in the World Rankings. The Russian has shown significant improvement on the hard courts in 2019 and he is playing some of his best tennis on the surface this year.

He has continued to prove to be effective behind serve having held 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019. The numbers are similar to 2018 in terms of hold percentage, but Medvedev is actually winning a higher percentage of points behind serve, while the real key to his success on the surface has been the improvement in the return.

Last year Daniil Medvedev broke in 24% of return games on the hard courts, but he has improved that number to 28% in 2019. He looked strong in his Second Round win over Bjorn Fratangelo and I think he can get the better of Tiafoe in this one too.

I was hoping that Medvedev would still be a little under-rated by the layers, but they are on top of him at the moment. However I think he should have been favoured to cover a handicap number slightly higher than where the line has been set and I will back Daniil Medvedev to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 1.08 Units (38 Units Staked, - 2.84% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 31st)

With some of the tournaments being played in North America and Mexico this week, it does mean that the layers are perhaps taking some time to formulate their markets. This week in particular is an issue because the tournaments are trying to be completed before the Canadian Masters begins this weekend and that means players are being asked to play on consecutive days from very early in the week.

Matches are being played through the night and the winners are going to be playing in the next Round on Wednesday. I will add any Tennis Picks from those matches to this thread and I will also update the weekly totals at that time too.


Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: On Monday both Roberto Carballas Baena and Lorenzo Sonego had to come through difficult First Round matches and their progression came after needing three sets to see off opponents. Tough wins can build character though and there is a chance to build some momentum as they play each other for a place in the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel on Wednesday.

Winning matches is clearly important, but both players will know they could have easily been beaten in the First Round too. It does mean there needs to be an improvement if Carballas Baena or Sonego are going to make it through to the next Round and this match could easily come down to which of the players is able to find that improvement the best.

Out of the two players Carballas Baena has been the more consistent, although the Spaniard has a serve that his opponent's will all feel like they can get into. He is holding 76% of the service games he has played on the clay courts in 2019 and he wins 61% of the points played with both numbers being pretty steady over the last five seasons.

The Spaniard will be expecting to have a little more success when facing Lorenzo Sonego who has struggled with his return on the clay courts having won 36% of return points and breaking in less than 20% of return games played. It does put some pressure on Sonego to make sure he is finding the big first serve with some regularity, but for the most part he has been successful doing that having held 83% of service games played.

It was the serve that got him out of trouble in the First Round against Federico Delbonis with all eight break points saved in the final set decider. However Lorenzo Sonego had a pretty good record against Delbonis which may have helped him from a mental standpoint, but that is not the case against Carballas Baena with three defeats to this opponent.

One of those came earlier this year on the South American Golden Swing, and all have been on the clay courts. Roberto Carballas Baena has found a way to break in 36% of return games played against Lorenzo Sonego and restricted the Italian to 58% of service points won which is someway down on his numbers overall.

I do think Sonego may have more success on his return than he does generally considering Carballas Baena remains at a steady 76% of service games held against the Italian. However Carballas Baena wins a few more service points and I think he will position himself to get the better of Lorenzo Sonego for a fourth time that they have met.

Prior to the win over Delbonis, Lorenzo Sonego had lost six matches in a row on the main ATP Tour on the clay. He will be boosted by snapping that run, but this looks a tough match up for him and I think Roberto Carballas Baena can be backed to win and cover the number.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Dennis Novak: As one of the higher Ranked players at the ATP Kitzbuhel tournament, Pablo Cuevas was given a bye into the Second Round of the draw. This could be an important week for Cuevas as it is the last clay court event with significant World Ranking points attached to it in the 2019 season, although it comes at the end of what has been a poor month for the Uruguayan.

He would have been hoping for much better from appearances in Bastad and Hamburg, but Pablo Cuevas did not receive favourable draws in defeats to Federico Delbonis and Dominic Thiem at those tournaments. This Second Round match looks much more winnable, although Cuevas has only played in Kitzbuhel once before and was upset by a home player in 2017.

Now he has to face Dennis Novak who came through his First Round match very comfortably although he has yet to move beyond the Second Round here. The majority of Novak's time is spent away from the main ATP Tour and the 25 year old Austrian has to be wondering whether he can find the consistency to crack into the top 100 of the World Rankings which would open the door to main Tour events in the future.

Dennis Novak has to be feeling good about the way he has performed when playing on the main Tour in 2019 even though he is only 3-3 on the clay in those matches. He has been holding 83% of the service games he has played in those matches and Novak is also breaking in 21% of return games, but I have to note that in his career Novak only holds in 73% of service games played on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.

He may have a bit more joy against Pablo Cuevas who can be a little erratic when it comes to his return of serve, although the Uruguayan has some strong numbers to fall back upon. He has broken in 30% of return games played on the clay in 2019 and Cuevas has been particularly strong when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 100 as shown by his percentage improving to 38% in that category.

Pablo Cuevas also does possess a strong serve and he does hold 81% of service games played on this surface against players Ranked outside the top 100. It can be difficult for players when they go up against an unfamiliar opponent for the first time, especially one that won't have a lot of film on him like Dennis Novak, but I expect to see Cuevas having a bit too much for him.

It may even need three sets to get it done, but I would expect Cuevas to find the big return games to earn the edge in the match and he can use that return to cover this number.


Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner over 10.5 games first set: A strong First Round win produced by Hubert Hurkacz over Donald Young has set him up with this match against John Isner. The American was one of a number of Seeds who received a bye through to the Second Round in Washington, although a big six weeks are coming up for Isner if he wants to avoid another drop down the World Rankings.

Last year John Isner reached the Quarter Final at the US Open so there are plenty of points he is going to have to defend there. He can make up for it having lost early in both Canada and Cincinnati, but Isner needs some momentum in what has been a difficult year for him.

The serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Isner and we have seen 40 year old Ivo Karlovic continue to be an effective player on the Tour thanks to the serve he possesses. The same is likely going to be the case for Isner who is winning 76% of the points played behind his serve and holding 94% of his service games on the hard courts in 2019.

Suffice to say it will be a huge challenge for Hubert Hurkacz to get his teeth into the return games especially as the Polish player is only winning 35% of return points on the hard courts this year. He has struggled to find the breaks of serve in general and now faces one of the top servers on the Tour.

It does mean there is some pressure on Hurkacz knowing one slip on serve would likely prove to be fatal, but he will be confident he can keep the scoreboard ticking along. Hubert Hurkacz has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts in 2019 and John Isner is an even more limited returner with breaks of serve in just 10% of return games while he wins less than 30% of the points played on an opponent's serve.

You would think the serve is going to be strong for both players at the outset of this match and five of the last seven John Isner matches have needed a tie-breaker to determine the first set. It has not been as common in Hubert Hurkacz matches, but he is likely going to need to serve well to stay with the American and backing the first set to at least reach 5-5 is the play in this one.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Over the last two years Kevin Anderson has played some of his very best tennis on the US hard court swing which concludes with the final Grand Slam of the season. He will be looking for another strong run over the coming weeks and the opening match in Washington looks like being a good one for the big South African.

Kevin Anderson is the Number 4 Seed in Washington and that does mean he received a bye through to the Second Round. That could give Adrian Mannarino some encouragement having put a straight sets win on the board in the First Round, but the Frenchman has to get over the mental obstacle of a really poor head to head with Anderson.

It is Anderson who has won their last four matches head to head on the hard courts including a First Round win at the Australian Open. The South African has held 90% of the service games he has played against Mannarino in those four matches and that is vastly superior to the latter who has only managed to hold 67% of his own service games in that time.

In 2019 Kevin Anderson has held 87% of his service games played on the hard courts and he will feel he can keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure. The Frenchman has been struggling with his return on the hard courts through the season and that increases the pressure on a player who does not have the most effective serve with 76% of his service games being held.

That has contributed to the Mannarino only securing a 5-10 record and I do make Anderson a strong favourite. There are some concerns that covering such a number like this is difficult for a player who has a limited return like Anderson, but even the breaks in 18% of return games might not be such an issue when you think of the way he has matched up with Mannarino.

During the course of this match I think Kevin Anderson can find a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino and he should have enough to cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 29th)

Leaving last week with a positive number was a surprise considering how the week had developed and it keeps the Tennis Picks chugging along in 2019. Being able to add to what has been a successful season is a good thing and this week we move on to more events ahead of the really big hard court events that take place in early August.

Those events in Canada and Cincinnati are the big warm up events for the top names on the Tour as we approach the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season at the US Open in New York City. That Slam begins in just under a month from now, but there is quite a bit of tennis to get through even though Novak Djokovic announced he won't be playing too much warm up tennis ahead of the US Open.


This week the Tour moves to Washington, San Jose, Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel with the last of those the only one being played on the clay courts. The rest of the tournaments are hard court events and there are a number of players who have shifted from the clay of Umag, Bastad and Hamburg to the hard courts so that is something to be aware of this week.

With the differing time zones of the various events being played, it does mean that the thread is going to have some selections added to it after it has been posted. Those selections will mainly be from Los Cabos and San Jose which are being played at least seven hours behind the London time zone so markets and order of players will be coming out much later than the ones for Kitzbuhel or Washington.


I am looking for a more consistent week than the last one, although I am always pleased if a winning record is produced. That is the minimum I look for in each week as I look for my own momentum to take into the final Grand Slam of the season which begins at the end of next month.

Monday is usually a quiet day compared with Tuesday in these weeks- there are some First Round matches scheduled for Monday, but the majority of them will be played the following day. I do have some selections from the Monday offerings though which can be read below.

I have also updated the season totals at the bottom of this thread.


Lorenzo Sonego v Federico Delbonis: He might have reached a career high Ranking ahead of Wimbledon, but Lorenzo Sonego has not been able to build on that in the last month. A First Round loss in Gstaad last week means the Italian has actually lost his last six matches on the main Tour on the clay courts and it does make Lorenzo Sonego a hard player to back.

However I do think he can find a way to get back to winning ways when he faces Federico Delbonis in the First Round in Kitzbuhel. He has shown better form than Sonego over the last month with a Challenger title secured as well as a run to the Semi Final in Bastad and a tight loss to Alexander Zverev in Hamburg last week.

On the pure numbers you would have to say that Delbonis deserves his spot as the favourite as well as the fact that Sonego has been on the losing run on the clay courts at the main ATP level. The Argentinian has been holding in 76% of his service games played on the clay courts while he has broken in 29% of return games and it is the success on the return that does give him an edge in this one.

While Lorenzo Sonego is a very good server who can build pressure with that shot, he has struggled to breaking in just 19% of return games played on the clay courts. It is a big difference between the two players, but Sonego has been much more comfortable when he has faced Delbonis.

These two players have met twice on the clay courts since September 2018 with the last of those matches coming earlier this year. In those matches the Lorenzo Sonego serve has been the bigger weapon with 95% of his service games being held compared with Federico Delbonis being down at 75%. The Italian has also kept Delbonis under pressure in those return games with 42% of the points won on the Delbonis serve and I do think Sonego will feel his serve can keep his opponent feeling the pressure in this one too.

I think this is going to be a close match and it looks to be one that Sonego will feel comfortable with. That makes the underdog appealing considering how he has played against Federico Delbonis and a strong serving day will give the Italian every chance of earning the upset.


Hugo Dellien v Roberto Carballas Baena: Coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draws of Hamburg and Kitzbuhel will certainly give Hugo Dellien some confidence, but he has not been able to have a deep run in any of the events played since Wimbledon concluded. The draws have not been that kind to the Bolivian who has been beaten by Juan Ignacio Londero in Bastad (who reached the Final there, and then Nikoloz Basilashvili in Hamburg (who won the title there).

Both defeats have been competitive enough to believe Dellien is feeling pretty good about his game and he is looking to surpass his career best World Number 74 position which was earned earlier this year. It will mean Hugo Dellien needs to have a big week to put some strong Ranking points in the bank, but this looks to be another difficult early match in the main draw.

Hugo Dellien has been very comfortable on the clay courts with some strong results, but the majority of those have come under the main Tour. The same can be said for Roberto Carballas Baena, although back to back Quarter Final runs in Bastad and Gstaad will make the Spaniard feel pretty good about his level going into this event.

On the numbers the slight edge has to be given to Carballas Baena who has held onto his serve in 76% of games played on the clay courts in 2019, while Hugo Dellien is at 73%. There is also a slight edge in terms of the return on this surface with Carballas Baena breaking in 33% of return games compared with Dellien being at 32%, but the percentage of points won by the two players are virtually identical.

It is the Bolivian who may hold the mental edge having beaten Carballas Baena in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year in a match where he created three times as many break points as his opponent. Roberto Carballas Baena really struggled with his serve on that day and I do think Hugo Dellien could frank that win having put a couple of wins on the board in the Qualifiers to become accustomed with the conditions in Kitzbuhel.

With very similar numbers, the value seems to be with Hugo Dellien here and I am going to back the underdog to win.


Ivo Karlovic v Bjorn Fratangelo: No one will be doubting that Ivo Karlovic is on the downward slope of his career, but he still possesses a big serve which will give him chances in matches. That is especially the case in matches like this one in the First Round in Washington, and I am not entirely sure Karlovic should be the underdog.

He might be 40 years old, but Ivo Karlovic has held 95% of his service games played on the hard courts and that is a number that surpasses the 2016, 2017 and 2018 season totals on the surface. The return of serve continues to be an issue for Karlovic, but he will be hoping he can build some scoreboard pressure in this one by trying to run through his service games and make Bjorn Fratangelo feel like he is serving all the time.

This has been a difficult season for Fratangelo who has held 81% of the service games he has played on the hard courts while he has broken in 18% of return games. The American will receive the support from the fans, but he has also struggled in his two previous matches against Karlovic and will need some luck to get through this match.

Ivo Karlovic has held in 90% of his service games played against Bjorn Fratangelo in their two previous matches. At the same time the Croatian has broken in just under 20% of return games played and I think that is a significant edge considering the last match between them was less than twelve months ago.

The feeling is that Karlovic can use his serve to edge out Fratangelo in this one and I am not sure he should be the underdog in the match. At the prices I will back Ivo Karlovic in this opening Round match in Washington.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hugo Dellien @ 2.37 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 117.55 Units (1389 Units Staked, + 8.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 2nd)

Monday and Tuesday were disappointing, but Wednesday has proved to be a lot better for the Tennis Picks to begin to turn this week around.

At the time of writing there are still a couple of matches to be completed in the ATP Washington Second Round which will really determine how positive this week has begun to look, but the first four Tennis Picks made on Wednesday have all returned winners.

I was a little lucky with Kyle Edmund covering against Andy Murray despite losing the match, but the other three winners were pretty much deserved even if a couple of the players missed out on winning the match in much easier fashion than it turned out to be. That doesn't matter to me when it comes to finding winners, especially where those players have deservedly moved through, and I have something to build on this week to try and add some positive numbers to the season totals before the move to Canada as the Masters/Premier Events in Toronto and Montreal begin next week.


Timea Babos v Maria Sakkari: This is a Second Round match from San Jose as the Quarter Final line up is put together for Friday and I am going to back the underdog to win this match.

The layers are not finding it easy to split Timea Babos and Maria Sakkari, but I do think the latter is a touch overrated thanks to some stand out wins on the Tour in 2018. Maria Sakkari has been a strong winner against some of the best players on the Tour, but her numbers suggest it is an unsustainable level that she is producing and Babos is a very competent hard court player that could edge her out.

One of the stand out issues Sakkari has had on the hard courts is she has struggled with her return this season compared to the last couple of years. That could be put to the test against a decent server like Babos and I think the Hungarian has an edge here.

I also expect Babos to have enough success against the Sakkari second serve to have every chance of securing the upset in this match.

Babos has also shown herself to be a dangerous player once she puts a couple of wins together in the same tournament and that has especially been the case on the hard courts in 2018. This is a player who has dropped off the standard she set for herself in 2015 and 2016, but Babos has shown signs she is getting back to that kind of level and I expect that will be too much for Sakkari who is a good player, but one who has been overachieving in 2018.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Heather Watson: There have been definite signs of slippage in the Venus Williams game in 2018 and I do wonder if the former World Number 1 has missed her best chance to add another Grand Slam to her collection in 2017.

Venus Williams was able to reach the Final of the Australian Open and Wimbledon as well as the US Open Semi Final but she won none of those tournaments and 2018 has been much more difficult all around. At least a move back onto the hard courts can give the elder Williams sister a chance to put some wins together and rebuild her confidence.

In general her hard court numbers have been pretty solid in 2018 and that definitely gives Venus Williams the edge over Heather Watson who has slipped outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Watson began 2018 with a strong run in Hobart having come through the Qualifiers and eventually make the Quarter Final of that tournament. That has helped her produce an 8-10 record for the season, but Watson is just 1-7 since the end of her run in Hobart and her numbers and her numbers have taken a hit right across the board.

The win over Claire Lui in the First Round at least ended her run of losses on the hard courts, but Watson is now facing a much bigger challenge. You have to factor in the fact that Venus Williams is playing her first hard court tournament of the summer, but even that may not be enough to see Watson challenge the American here.


Denis Istomin + 2.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: The clay courts have not been very kind to Denis Istomin in 2018, but his numbers suggested that he had been very unfortunate not to have put some wins up. After losing all 9 matches played on the clay courts in 2018, Istomin has found some form in Kitzbuhel where he has come through the Qualifiers.

Adding a couple more wins in the main draw means Istomin has reached a Quarter Final on the surface and I think he has a better chance of the upset against Maximilian Marterer than the layers believe.

Istomin is serving effectively on the surface although there is no doubt he would like to be a really more dangerous on the return of serve. His actual percentage of points won against the serve are not that bad, but Istomin has not been able to convert the break points he has created and that has put some pressure on the serve.

Even then his return numbers are better looking than those that Marterer has produced and his serve has been a little more solid on this surface. Of course Marterer did reach the Fourth Round at the French Open, but that may have influenced his prices and he is winning less points on serve and return in terms of a percentage than Istomin.

With the momentum the latter has built up he should be confident he can secure an upset, but I will take the games available in case of a tight third set defeat for Istomin.


Jaume Munar - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: You have got to be impressed with the way both of these players have been playing on the clay courts over the last six weeks. Both Jaume Munar and Taro Daniel have had considerable success on the clay courts at the Challenger level and they have bought that onto the main Tour too.

Even then you would have to say both Munar and Daniel would have hoped for more wins and they also were beaten by the same Roberto Bautista Agut in back to back matches in Gstaad last week.

The key to the match could be how well Daniel serves- he has been producing some of his best tennis of his career as far as the serve has been going and that has been especially true on the clay courts. However this time he is facing a strong returner in Munar who has broken opponents very quickly and who will look to force Daniel to beat him from the back of the court.

Munar may be the more comfortable on the clay courts, but I don't think Daniel will be too scared of having to break the Spaniard's serve considering it is a weapon that can be attacking. He may also have confidence from having beaten Munar in the Barcelona Qualifiers around fifteen months ago but Munar looks an improved player now and I think he edges out Daniel this time.


Cameron Norrie v Adrian Mannarino: This is only the second pick I am making from Los Cabos this week and I am backing the fast improving Cameron Norrie to get the better of his fellow left-handed opponent in Adrian Mannarino in this Quarter Final.

Norrie had a strong run in Atlanta last week and his College experience in the United States should mean he is very comfortable on the hard courts. His numbers have backed that up in 2018 with a slight improvement in his service hold percentage and points won behind serve percentage despite the step up to more regular time on the ATP Tour.

His returning is decent enough on the hard courts too and the results have been good over the last couple of weeks which will have given him confidence.

Adrian Mannarino cannot be underestimated considering all of the veteran experience he has and the Frenchman is a very competent hard court player in his own right. However his returning numbers have taken a hit from previous seasons and that could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight Quarter Final to be played on Thursday.

Those returning numbers have shown a sharp decline when facing opponents Ranked in the top 100 and Cameron Norrie can make another Semi Final on the hard courts this week.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The ATP Washington event has had plenty of problems with rain this week and that may be the case on Thursday too so don't be surprised if this match is not in a position to take to the courts.

However at some point David Goffin and Francis Tiafoe will have to play and I am giving the edge to the Belgian in what looks a potentially very good match.

There has been a big improvement from Tiafoe this year and he looks a player that will make some serious strides up the World Rankings in the next twelve months. The American has moved into the top 50 of the World Rankings but there is still some more room for improvement as the 20 year old continues to show some inconsistencies which won't be a massive surprise.

His serve has improved, but Tiafoe is still working on getting the best out of his return game although he may have a few more chances against the David Goffin serve. In saying that, Goffin has been able to look after his serve well enough on the hard courts in 2018 and he will be all the better for battling past Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the Second Round.

Goffin has not been in the best form since the end of the French Open, but he will be happy to be back on the hard courts and I think he will edge out Tiafoe in what could be a very fun match to watch once the rain clears away.

MY PICKS: Timea Babos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.68 Units (26 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 1st)

After the glorious British summer we have been experiencing, and continue to experience, it is frustrating to see all the rain in Washington which is taking its toll on the ATP and WTA event being played there.

To be fair, Tuesday was a much clearer day which has allowed the majority of matches to be completed, but there are expected to be more rain delays on Wednesday and the rest of the week there.

At least the other events being played in Kitzbuhel, Los Cabos and San Jose look to be getting through the schedule as they would like ahead of the move to Canada and the first of two Masters events to be played before the US Open commences.


It has been a frustrating time for the players, but also a frustrating time for the Tennis Picks which opened the week with a 0-4 start. Thankfully there were signs of getting things turned back around later on Tuesday with three winners from four matches played in Washington, and we also have Alexander Zverev 6-2 up in the first set against Malek Jaziri although I hate matches that have the rain break which can see momentum shift very quickly.

Wednesday offers up a large amount of Second Round matches and the selections I have made can be read below.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Dennis Novak: After getting through the tough Qualifiers and reaching the Third Round at Wimbledon for a career best performance, Dennis Novak will be a more familiar face in his home tournament in Kitzbuhel these days.

However it is clear that there is still some big improvements the 24 year old can make if he is really going to become a feature on the main Tour in the years ahead. The World Ranking points earned at Wimbledon and winning a First Round match here will give Novak the chance to enter bigger tournaments in the months ahead, although he still has work to do to crack the top 100.

The performances on clay have not been too bad in 2018, but Novak is going to be challenged by someone who is playing very well on the surface and I think Dusan Lajovic will be able to edge him out in straight sets.

Novak will be the new Austrian Number 2 at the end of this week, but his numbers on the clay are not as strong as Lajovic's and that is despite the latter playing mainly on the ATP Tour compared with Novak's time spent on the Challenger circuit. Lajovic has been very strong behind his serve and he has made a small improvement on his return of serve which has paid off for him.

Has Lajovic been overachieving? Maybe a little bit, but his form has remained strong going back onto the clay courts this past month and I like him to win this with a break more in each set of a straight sets victory.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Radu Albot: Winning the first Singles and Doubles titles of his career last week will have given Matteo Berrettini a bunch of confidence, but the question is how much tennis does he have left in the tank?

The fight shown to come back and beat Gilles Simon in the First Round in Kitzbuhel suggests the Italian is not going to roll over for anyone and he did crush Radu Albot on his way to success in Gstaad last week.

Berrettini did not drop a set in Gstaad, but it is playing the Doubles and having success in that tournament too which may have drained the energy levels. That has to be the biggest fear in backing him this week in Kitzbuhel, although Berrettini may feel this is an important time to build up his Ranking points which will offer him direct entry into the Masters events in the months ahead.

Albot did crush Josef Kovalik in the First Round, who had tremendous success last week too, but his clay court numbers are simply not on the level of what Berrettini can produce. The serve is one that the Italian had a lot of success against last week when they played in the First Round in Gstaad and the Italian has a serve of his own which can be very effective for him.

It should be the case at this level and backing Berrettini off the same mark as last week is my selection even with the fatigue issues to consider.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Tim Smyczek: These two players meet for the second week in a row on the Tour and I think Mischa Zverev has enough to frank the victory he had over Tim Smyczek in Atlanta last week. Even though he needed three sets to get the job done, Zverev was the better player on the day and should really have won much more comfortably than it turned out to be on the scoreboard.

Even then it was relatively straight forward for Zverev who could be in line to face brother Alexander in the next Round if both are able to progress through their Second Round matches on Wednesday.

Smyczek is a solid veteran of the Tour and can blow hot and cold which makes him potentially dangerous for an erratic player like Zverev. The key for the German is going to be how well he can serve on the day with that side of his game struggling on the hard courts so far in 2018, although this time of the season tends to be faster than earlier in the campaign.

He put enough pressure on Smyczek last week to believe in his serve, and Zverev has actually been returning pretty effectively which saw him create 17 break points against the American in Atlanta. That is another match to add to the 2018 calendar when Zverev has produced some of his more effective hard court returning games and could be the key here as he edges out Smyczek for a second week in a row.


Kyle Edmund - 1.5 games v Andy Murray: Most would have read Andy Murray was able to show the grit and determination which has helped him have so much success in his career in the First Round win over McKenzie McDonald in Washington. However Murray himself admitted he will have to be a lot better when he faces Kyle Edmund for the second time during his brief return to the Tour.

When they met on the grass in Eastbourne it was Edmund who dominated Murray and was able to underline his current place as the World Number 1. That is arguably on the weakest surface for Edmund, although the worry for him is that this is the first match back on the hard courts compared with Murray who has the win under his belt.

Edmund didn't have a good time in Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year with losses in his first match at both tournaments, but he is a capable hard court player and right now looks the better of the two Brits.

You can never underestimate Murray and I imagine he has been looking forward to playing Edmund again after being beaten so easily by him at Eastbourne. At this moment I am not sure Murray has enough tennis in his legs to really expect to get the better of Edmund and this is all about getting enough matches into the legs to take into the US Open at the end of the month.

The Edmund serve was a big weapon for him when he beat Murray in Eastbourne and he is a big returner when his eye is in. Again it is the first match on the surface which has to be a concern, but Edmund has that strong run in Australia to help himself ignore the losses in North America and I think he can win this one against the former World Number 1.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was something of a surprise that Steve Johnson did not enter the Atlanta tournament last week but it may have been a time for the American to rest having won the title in Newport following Wimbledon.

The hard courts should be the surface on which Johnson has his most success and his 9-8 record does not indicate how well he has been performing. There have been some disappointing losses in matches Johnson should have won, but the serve continues to be a big weapon for him and he is returning about as well as ever on this surface.

The return game has always held Johnson back, but the numbers there have been strong enough to think he can get the better of Alex De Minaur in what is going to be their third match of the season.

Both have had a win apiece over the other and those wins have come on home soil for the two players with De Minaur winning in Brisbane and Johnson returning the favour in Irving. The Australian has taken in the hard court event in Atlanta and won a First Round match here which should be factored into things when you think Johnson is returning to the hard courts for the first time in a few months.

De Minaur has some strong 2018 hard court numbers, but the successes came very early in the year when playing in Australia. Since then it has been much tougher for him and there has been a noticeable drop in the service and return numbers since the end of the Australian Open.

That includes the heavy loss to Johnson and I think the latter can use the momentum he built in Newport to make a winning return to the hard courts on Wednesday.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Prior to the injury problems, giving birth, and off court issues relating to custody of her son Victoria Azarenka was one of the top WTA players out there. Many would have assumed she would be leading the way for the next generation of players along with Garbine Muguruza and this match up could have been one which featured in multiple Grand Slam Finals in the years ahead.

Both have had their successes on the Tour, but it has been tough work for Azarenka on her return to the Tour following the clearing of the issues with the father of her baby. Her return has not come with the same discussions as to where she should be Seeded as it has with Serena Williams and that has meant a much tougher return for Azarenka.

She has played well but it is clear that Azarenka has yet to reach anything near the level she could play at when a regular on the Tour. It will come with time, but I think Garbine Muguruza can get the better of her here despite being one of the most erratic top players on the Tour.

The lack of matches since Wimbledon has to be a concern when looking to back Muguruza as is the tendency to blow hot and cold on a week to week basis on the Tour. When the Spaniard is good she is very good though and her numbers on the hard courts have been pretty impressive in 2018 which makes her one of the favourites going into the US Open.

The serve is a key weapon for Muguruza and if she is serving well I would expect her to win this match. While Azarenka is still a quality returner, her own serve can be attacked and so a strong display from Muguruza may be enough to beat the former World Number 1 for the first time.

It should be a quality match in the early hours of Thursday morning, but one I am edging towards Muguruza to get the better of Azarenka in.

MY PICKS: Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.4 Units (16 Units Staked, - 27.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 31st)

As I said on Monday, the next couple of days were going to be those when I just added my Tennis Picks to the blog but without the usual analysis I write down.

With the tournaments split between Europe and Central and North America, I will update the weekly total and also add the Picks from the matches at Washington, San Jose and Los Cabos on Tuesday.


MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (August 5th)

The men's draw at the US Open lost another big name when defending Champion Stan Wawrinka called time on 2017 just days after Novak Djokovic did the same. Wawrinka has been suffering with a knee issue that needs rest and recuperation, but that means two of the top five names in the outright market are gone before a ball has been struck in New York City.

We may have to add Andy Murray to that list after the World Number 1 pulled out of the Canadian Masters next week. His recovery looks to be taking a lot of time and I think I am beginning to believe he won't be able to be ready to compete at Flushing Meadows.

All of that means it looks like being a two horse race for the end of season World Number 1 spot between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who look like being the top two Seeds at the US Open. Perhaps the absence of three of the top five players in the world may open the door for another surprise name to win the final Grand Slam event of the season, or it may have left the chance for one of the 'Next Gen' players to show they are ready.

The most likely could be Alexander Zverev who has reached the Semi Final in Washington this week and who has had a big Masters win in Rome. Zverev is yet to really perform at his best at the Grand Slam events, but has the game to really make an impact on the hard courts and I am looking forward to seeing how he does in Montreal and Cincinnati over the next couple of weeks.


The tournaments this week are into the final few matches before the majority of the Tours head off to Canada for the Masters and Premier Event which is played next week. The draw for the men's and women's tournaments have already been released although the First Round matches are scheduled to begin on Monday. Before that the events this week have to conclude.


Joao Sousa + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The Final in Kitzbuhel is likely to see Philipp Kohlschreiber receive the majority of the support from the crowd. That may not bother Joao Sousa though who has beaten two home hopes in the last two Rounds and has previously given Kohlschreiber plenty to think about.

That includes on the grass courts in Halle in June on a surface you would think Kohlschreiber would be able to really get the better of Sousa. However the latter was able to force a deciding set before going down and I think the clay courts may close that gap a little more and perhaps even see the Portuguese player earn the upset.

That won't be easy, but Sousa has looked in better form than Kohlschreiber so far this week. The German was fortunate to get through in the Quarter Final and the muscle injury he had last week is going to be tested by someone like Sousa who is able to rally all day from the back of the court.

Sousa has been returning well this week, but the bigger factor may be the freedom he has been able to have in attacking opponents thanks to strong serving displays. He did struggle at times against Gerald Melzer, but generally Sousa has been very strong on the serve and I think that could be a key here.

I do have to say that Sousa had been in poor form before this last month back on the clay courts, but his confidence looks in a much better place now. I will be looking for Sousa to return well enough to take a set and that should give him a chance to cover with this number of games, even if Sousa is not able to win the title in Kitzbuhel.


Got a couple of hours between a wedding party today to add the three picks from Washington and Stanford. Hopefully they can have better luck than being a break up and still not winning a set like Sousa had this afternoon in Kitzbuhel.

MY PICKS: Joao Sousa + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (August 3rd)

Novak Djokovic has called an end to his 2017 season with a lingering injury, and another big name will be worrying about their own injury issues going into the next month ahead of the US Open.

Maria Sharapova has only just returned from a long lay off from injury, but she had to pull out of her Second Round match in Stanford, although the Russian insists it is only a precautionary decision. After all the hullabaloo surrounding her return from the ban imposed by the ITF, Sharapova has had a tough time in 2017 with those injuries beginning to have a toll on her.

She is likely going to have to play the Qualifiers at the US Open barring a surprising Wild Card into the main draw and Sharapova will be hoping she can be healthy for the big events in Toronto and Cincinnati upcoming. All in all it has not been the fairytale return to the Tour that some would have been expecting (remember Sharapova was the second favourite to win the French Open a few days after her return to the Tour) and she looks to be in a position where she will simply be hoping to have a few months of injury free tennis before using the off-season to recharge the batteries.


The tournaments being played this week continue on Thursday and the tennis matches are spread throughout the day with events being played in Europe and North and Central America. With the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos having their markets prepared in the coming hours, I will begin with the two picks from Kitzbuhel before adding any picks I have from those events in Washington, Los Cabos and Stanford.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: It is hard to trust Fabio Fognini when you know this is a player who can blow hot and cold as much as the Italian can. Add in the fact he had a long week in Gstaad where he won the title and those factors do concern me.

He is also facing an opponent in Thomaz Bellucci who is very capable on the clay courts and who has had two solid wins already in the main draw to move into the Quarter Final. Those have come at an important time for the Brazilian who had lost nine of his last ten matches including the last seven in a row before this week.

Some of those losses have been narrow ones which may underline the lack of confidence Bellucci had to be playing with in recent weeks. However narrow losses also means it could be a big ask for Fognini to cover the number of games I am looking from him.

In saying Bellucci has lost some tight matches, I really mean by the numbers rather than on the scoreboard. During his run of nine losses in ten matches, Bellucci was beaten seven times in best of three set matches and would not have covered this number six times.

A poor record against Fognini can't be ignored either, even if there is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind that the Italian could always be in 'gift giving' mode. On this day I am hoping for the motivated Fognini that had been in action last week and I will look for him to find his way past Bellucci with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.


Gerald Melzer + 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: It might be something of a surprise that I am taking the games with a player that spends the majority of his time in tournaments on the Challenger Tour when facing an opponent who has played ATP events throughout 2017. But that is the case when I look for Gerald Melzer to give Joao Sousa plenty to think about in this Quarter Final.

You have to give Melzer credit for another good run in Kitzbuhel as he reached a Quarter Final for the second year in a row. Last year Melzer made it through to the Semi Final and I think the two wins he has this week have to be respected.

Now he faces Joao Sousa who has just started winning matches again after a really poor run of form. Sousa reached the Quarter Final last week in Gstaad and he has done the same here despite previously losing eleven of twelve matches on the Tour. That would have knocked the confidence of Sousa and he has needed three sets twice already this week.

If this one is to go into a third set, Melzer will have his chance to cover with this number of games behind him. Melzer has some confidence having had two strong showings in the Challenger events in Perugia and Cortina, although I do respect the fact that Sousa is an upgrade in level of opponent to anyone that Melzer has played since his participating in the Golden Swing tournaments in South America.

Home comforts may help Melzer control the nerves and I think he can keep this match close. His numbers in 2017 have suggested that too, while Sousa is 0-3 when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2017 and with some poor numbers behind him. I will look for Gerald Melzer to take at least a set and that should give him a chance to cover with the games.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: With the Canada Masters event just a few days away, the ATP event in Los Cabos has reached the Quarter Final Round on Thursday. That will give time for the players to head over to Montreal, even those who may be competing on Finals day, and one of those keen to go all the way will be Tomas Berdych.

A great field hasn't been put together for this draw, which is no surprise with the back to back Masters events which will begin next week. Add in the fact there is an ATP 500 event being played in Washington, and this tournament has felt more in line with a glorified Challenger tournament adding in a couple of big names.

Berdych does look the stand out player in the draw and he is a big favourite to see off Adrian Mannarino against whom he has a 4-0 head to head record. That includes a relatively straightforward win in the Miami Masters on the hard courts and I think Berdych is likely to match that margin here.

On that day it ended 6-3, 7-5 for Berdych as he was able to dictate things behind the serve and force a couple of loose games from the Mannarino serve. While I do think the left-handed Frenchman will be able to get through a few games on serve, he is always close to throwing in a really poor one and that can make up for the declining return numbers Berdych has produced over the last twelve months.

To give Berdych his credit, he has been returning a little better in recent matches and I think that will be enough to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are definitely some positive signs for Jared Donaldson as he learns more and more from being on the main ATP Tour. The experiences he is having will be a positive for the 20 year old player in the coming years, but I still think he is a little short of being able to compete with the better players on the Tour.

Jack Sock may not be in the best form and he may have a limited return game which puts pressure on him to serve at his highest level. However he is still strong on the North American hard courts and the heavy forehand can give Donaldson some problems as it did when they met earlier in 2017 in a match where the younger American won just three games.

The Donaldson numbers have been slightly weaker when he has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts compared to when he has faced top 50 players. Slightly weaker service points won and return points won do make a big difference and I think that is going to show up when he faces Sock in the Third Round in Washington.

This isn't the kind of number Sock is used to covering as shown by the fact he has won eleven of twelve matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings on the hard courts, but only in five of those has he covered this number. At odds against it is worth chancing though having shown he can get into the Donaldson service games when they played in Miami as well as Donaldson's generally weaker numbers when serving against top 20 opponents.

Sock will have to take the chances that do come his way, but I think he can earn enough break point chances to bring up three breaks of serve which may be enough for a 7-6, 6-3 win on the day.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for the way he was serving in his Second Round win over Lucas Pouille, although the Frenchman underlined my belief that his limited return game is going to prevent him staying inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

If Paul is serving as well as he was this will be a tough match for Gilles Muller, although the mental edge belongs to the latter having crushed the young American for the loss of four games last week in Atlanta.

Fatigue may have gotten the better of Paul last week as that defeat came after winning four matches in a row all in three sets. That has to be considered, but Paul will also be dealing with the mental pressure of losing return games fairly comfortably if Muller is serving as well as he can.

This is still a big number of games being asked of Muller and I am only interested because it is offered at odds against for him to cover. He crushed Dmitry Tursunov on Wednesday and Paul is coming off a career best win which can be tough for inexperienced players to back up as we see regularly through the course of a year on the Tour.

Muller serving first would be important and I think he can then earn the two breaks to win this one 6-3, 6-4.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: The problem with backing Simona Halep to cover spreads like this one on the hard courts is the fact that her serve is not the biggest and she has to work so hard to protect it. Over the course of a match that means opponents do have their chances to break serve and those can be critical despite the Romanian being the kind of returner who will create plenty of pressure off the return herself.

The return game is very important on the WTA Tour and Mariana Duque-Marino is capable of breaking the Halep serve. The win over Shelby Rogers was impressive in the First Round, but this is another step up in class for Duque-Marino.

She is facing an opponent who has a 14-3 record on the hard courts over the last four years when facing a player Ranked outside the top 100. Halep has been very good in that spot in 2017 with strong numbers produced, but I don't think those are sustainable which is a concern for me.

However, Halep is 9-5 against this number in those fourteen wins in that time while Duque-Marino is 0-6 lifetime against a top 10 Ranked player and is 1-5 with this number of games behind her. Duque-Marino is also 0-7 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and she has only covered with this number of games once and I do think Halep will prove to be too good on the day.

Clay is the best surface for Mariana Duque-Marino and her numbers on the hard courts are slightly weaker across the board compared with clay. While she challenged Halep on the clay back in 2011, Halep is a much stronger player these days and I will look for her to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.


Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have said for a few years that Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most overrated players on the WTA Tour with many pricing her up on her one strong season back in 2014. While Bouchard did have a winning record in 2016, this is a player that has struggled on the Tour and her Number 59 World Ranking is testament to that.

The Canadian is overrated and that can be highlighted by the fact she has been a favourite twenty-one times over the last twelve months. Bouchard has won just 33% of those matches which is a remarkably poor record (7-14) and some of her best results in that time have come when set as the underdog and the pressure free environment that may be creating for her.

Even her First Round win here came as the underdog against Christina McHale so I am questioning the fact I am taking Bouchard to win this match as the favourite. However I thought she would be a much stronger favourite to beat the declining Andrea Petkovic who has slipped down to Number 78 in the World Rankings.

Petkovic is just 8-15 on the Tour this season and the German is another player who tends to be priced up with her previous form in mind rather than what she is producing on the court these days. Over the last two seasons Petkovic is just 28-35 when playing top 100 Ranked players and that becomes 16-17 on the hard courts.

Both players have had their issues, but I think Bouchard has been the slightly superior performer which can show up on the scoreboard. Expect breaks of serve and expect a deciding set, but I will look for Bouchard to earn the narrow victory and cover this number.


Alison Riske v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The final pick from the Thursday tennis matches comes from Stanford where I am looking for the underdog Alison Riske to get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

I am not entirely sure why Riske is the underdog considering she has the 3-1 advantage on the head to head and has certainly been showing superior form in recent weeks compared with Pavlyuchenkova.

The better hard court results in 2017 have come from Pavlyuchenkova, but she is returning to the surface after a poor grass court season. This is also an event where Riske reached the Semi Final last season and the American put together a solid win in the First Round which will have given her confidence back in Stanford.

The recent numbers on this surface are very similar for both Riske and Pavlyuchenkova and that is where the recent positive form and the head to head lead Riske has could pay off.

It won't be an easy match for Riske if Pavlyuchenkova is at her best with her ability to hit very big and take the racquet out of the hand of the American. However, I think Riske is playing well enough and Pavlyuchenkova has not been in the best form to think the former can come through with a three set win and I will back the underdog here.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-11, - 8.50 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.61% Yield)