The men's draw at the US Open lost another big name when defending Champion Stan Wawrinka called time on 2017 just days after Novak Djokovic did the same. Wawrinka has been suffering with a knee issue that needs rest and recuperation, but that means two of the top five names in the outright market are gone before a ball has been struck in New York City.
We may have to add Andy Murray to that list after the World Number 1 pulled out of the Canadian Masters next week. His recovery looks to be taking a lot of time and I think I am beginning to believe he won't be able to be ready to compete at Flushing Meadows.
All of that means it looks like being a two horse race for the end of season World Number 1 spot between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who look like being the top two Seeds at the US Open. Perhaps the absence of three of the top five players in the world may open the door for another surprise name to win the final Grand Slam event of the season, or it may have left the chance for one of the 'Next Gen' players to show they are ready.
The most likely could be Alexander Zverev who has reached the Semi Final in Washington this week and who has had a big Masters win in Rome. Zverev is yet to really perform at his best at the Grand Slam events, but has the game to really make an impact on the hard courts and I am looking forward to seeing how he does in Montreal and Cincinnati over the next couple of weeks.
The tournaments this week are into the final few matches before the majority of the Tours head off to Canada for the Masters and Premier Event which is played next week. The draw for the men's and women's tournaments have already been released although the First Round matches are scheduled to begin on Monday. Before that the events this week have to conclude.
Joao Sousa + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The Final in Kitzbuhel is likely to see Philipp Kohlschreiber receive the majority of the support from the crowd. That may not bother Joao Sousa though who has beaten two home hopes in the last two Rounds and has previously given Kohlschreiber plenty to think about.
That includes on the grass courts in Halle in June on a surface you would think Kohlschreiber would be able to really get the better of Sousa. However the latter was able to force a deciding set before going down and I think the clay courts may close that gap a little more and perhaps even see the Portuguese player earn the upset.
That won't be easy, but Sousa has looked in better form than Kohlschreiber so far this week. The German was fortunate to get through in the Quarter Final and the muscle injury he had last week is going to be tested by someone like Sousa who is able to rally all day from the back of the court.
Sousa has been returning well this week, but the bigger factor may be the freedom he has been able to have in attacking opponents thanks to strong serving displays. He did struggle at times against Gerald Melzer, but generally Sousa has been very strong on the serve and I think that could be a key here.
I do have to say that Sousa had been in poor form before this last month back on the clay courts, but his confidence looks in a much better place now. I will be looking for Sousa to return well enough to take a set and that should give him a chance to cover with this number of games, even if Sousa is not able to win the title in Kitzbuhel.
Got a couple of hours between a wedding party today to add the three picks from Washington and Stanford. Hopefully they can have better luck than being a break up and still not winning a set like Sousa had this afternoon in Kitzbuhel.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Stanford Picks. Show all posts
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Saturday, 5 August 2017
Thursday, 3 August 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (August 3rd)
Novak Djokovic has called an end to his 2017 season with a lingering injury, and another big name will be worrying about their own injury issues going into the next month ahead of the US Open.
Maria Sharapova has only just returned from a long lay off from injury, but she had to pull out of her Second Round match in Stanford, although the Russian insists it is only a precautionary decision. After all the hullabaloo surrounding her return from the ban imposed by the ITF, Sharapova has had a tough time in 2017 with those injuries beginning to have a toll on her.
She is likely going to have to play the Qualifiers at the US Open barring a surprising Wild Card into the main draw and Sharapova will be hoping she can be healthy for the big events in Toronto and Cincinnati upcoming. All in all it has not been the fairytale return to the Tour that some would have been expecting (remember Sharapova was the second favourite to win the French Open a few days after her return to the Tour) and she looks to be in a position where she will simply be hoping to have a few months of injury free tennis before using the off-season to recharge the batteries.
The tournaments being played this week continue on Thursday and the tennis matches are spread throughout the day with events being played in Europe and North and Central America. With the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos having their markets prepared in the coming hours, I will begin with the two picks from Kitzbuhel before adding any picks I have from those events in Washington, Los Cabos and Stanford.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: It is hard to trust Fabio Fognini when you know this is a player who can blow hot and cold as much as the Italian can. Add in the fact he had a long week in Gstaad where he won the title and those factors do concern me.
He is also facing an opponent in Thomaz Bellucci who is very capable on the clay courts and who has had two solid wins already in the main draw to move into the Quarter Final. Those have come at an important time for the Brazilian who had lost nine of his last ten matches including the last seven in a row before this week.
Some of those losses have been narrow ones which may underline the lack of confidence Bellucci had to be playing with in recent weeks. However narrow losses also means it could be a big ask for Fognini to cover the number of games I am looking from him.
In saying Bellucci has lost some tight matches, I really mean by the numbers rather than on the scoreboard. During his run of nine losses in ten matches, Bellucci was beaten seven times in best of three set matches and would not have covered this number six times.
A poor record against Fognini can't be ignored either, even if there is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind that the Italian could always be in 'gift giving' mode. On this day I am hoping for the motivated Fognini that had been in action last week and I will look for him to find his way past Bellucci with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: It might be something of a surprise that I am taking the games with a player that spends the majority of his time in tournaments on the Challenger Tour when facing an opponent who has played ATP events throughout 2017. But that is the case when I look for Gerald Melzer to give Joao Sousa plenty to think about in this Quarter Final.
You have to give Melzer credit for another good run in Kitzbuhel as he reached a Quarter Final for the second year in a row. Last year Melzer made it through to the Semi Final and I think the two wins he has this week have to be respected.
Now he faces Joao Sousa who has just started winning matches again after a really poor run of form. Sousa reached the Quarter Final last week in Gstaad and he has done the same here despite previously losing eleven of twelve matches on the Tour. That would have knocked the confidence of Sousa and he has needed three sets twice already this week.
If this one is to go into a third set, Melzer will have his chance to cover with this number of games behind him. Melzer has some confidence having had two strong showings in the Challenger events in Perugia and Cortina, although I do respect the fact that Sousa is an upgrade in level of opponent to anyone that Melzer has played since his participating in the Golden Swing tournaments in South America.
Home comforts may help Melzer control the nerves and I think he can keep this match close. His numbers in 2017 have suggested that too, while Sousa is 0-3 when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2017 and with some poor numbers behind him. I will look for Gerald Melzer to take at least a set and that should give him a chance to cover with the games.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: With the Canada Masters event just a few days away, the ATP event in Los Cabos has reached the Quarter Final Round on Thursday. That will give time for the players to head over to Montreal, even those who may be competing on Finals day, and one of those keen to go all the way will be Tomas Berdych.
A great field hasn't been put together for this draw, which is no surprise with the back to back Masters events which will begin next week. Add in the fact there is an ATP 500 event being played in Washington, and this tournament has felt more in line with a glorified Challenger tournament adding in a couple of big names.
Berdych does look the stand out player in the draw and he is a big favourite to see off Adrian Mannarino against whom he has a 4-0 head to head record. That includes a relatively straightforward win in the Miami Masters on the hard courts and I think Berdych is likely to match that margin here.
On that day it ended 6-3, 7-5 for Berdych as he was able to dictate things behind the serve and force a couple of loose games from the Mannarino serve. While I do think the left-handed Frenchman will be able to get through a few games on serve, he is always close to throwing in a really poor one and that can make up for the declining return numbers Berdych has produced over the last twelve months.
To give Berdych his credit, he has been returning a little better in recent matches and I think that will be enough to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are definitely some positive signs for Jared Donaldson as he learns more and more from being on the main ATP Tour. The experiences he is having will be a positive for the 20 year old player in the coming years, but I still think he is a little short of being able to compete with the better players on the Tour.
Jack Sock may not be in the best form and he may have a limited return game which puts pressure on him to serve at his highest level. However he is still strong on the North American hard courts and the heavy forehand can give Donaldson some problems as it did when they met earlier in 2017 in a match where the younger American won just three games.
The Donaldson numbers have been slightly weaker when he has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts compared to when he has faced top 50 players. Slightly weaker service points won and return points won do make a big difference and I think that is going to show up when he faces Sock in the Third Round in Washington.
This isn't the kind of number Sock is used to covering as shown by the fact he has won eleven of twelve matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings on the hard courts, but only in five of those has he covered this number. At odds against it is worth chancing though having shown he can get into the Donaldson service games when they played in Miami as well as Donaldson's generally weaker numbers when serving against top 20 opponents.
Sock will have to take the chances that do come his way, but I think he can earn enough break point chances to bring up three breaks of serve which may be enough for a 7-6, 6-3 win on the day.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for the way he was serving in his Second Round win over Lucas Pouille, although the Frenchman underlined my belief that his limited return game is going to prevent him staying inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
If Paul is serving as well as he was this will be a tough match for Gilles Muller, although the mental edge belongs to the latter having crushed the young American for the loss of four games last week in Atlanta.
Fatigue may have gotten the better of Paul last week as that defeat came after winning four matches in a row all in three sets. That has to be considered, but Paul will also be dealing with the mental pressure of losing return games fairly comfortably if Muller is serving as well as he can.
This is still a big number of games being asked of Muller and I am only interested because it is offered at odds against for him to cover. He crushed Dmitry Tursunov on Wednesday and Paul is coming off a career best win which can be tough for inexperienced players to back up as we see regularly through the course of a year on the Tour.
Muller serving first would be important and I think he can then earn the two breaks to win this one 6-3, 6-4.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: The problem with backing Simona Halep to cover spreads like this one on the hard courts is the fact that her serve is not the biggest and she has to work so hard to protect it. Over the course of a match that means opponents do have their chances to break serve and those can be critical despite the Romanian being the kind of returner who will create plenty of pressure off the return herself.
The return game is very important on the WTA Tour and Mariana Duque-Marino is capable of breaking the Halep serve. The win over Shelby Rogers was impressive in the First Round, but this is another step up in class for Duque-Marino.
She is facing an opponent who has a 14-3 record on the hard courts over the last four years when facing a player Ranked outside the top 100. Halep has been very good in that spot in 2017 with strong numbers produced, but I don't think those are sustainable which is a concern for me.
However, Halep is 9-5 against this number in those fourteen wins in that time while Duque-Marino is 0-6 lifetime against a top 10 Ranked player and is 1-5 with this number of games behind her. Duque-Marino is also 0-7 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and she has only covered with this number of games once and I do think Halep will prove to be too good on the day.
Clay is the best surface for Mariana Duque-Marino and her numbers on the hard courts are slightly weaker across the board compared with clay. While she challenged Halep on the clay back in 2011, Halep is a much stronger player these days and I will look for her to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have said for a few years that Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most overrated players on the WTA Tour with many pricing her up on her one strong season back in 2014. While Bouchard did have a winning record in 2016, this is a player that has struggled on the Tour and her Number 59 World Ranking is testament to that.
The Canadian is overrated and that can be highlighted by the fact she has been a favourite twenty-one times over the last twelve months. Bouchard has won just 33% of those matches which is a remarkably poor record (7-14) and some of her best results in that time have come when set as the underdog and the pressure free environment that may be creating for her.
Even her First Round win here came as the underdog against Christina McHale so I am questioning the fact I am taking Bouchard to win this match as the favourite. However I thought she would be a much stronger favourite to beat the declining Andrea Petkovic who has slipped down to Number 78 in the World Rankings.
Petkovic is just 8-15 on the Tour this season and the German is another player who tends to be priced up with her previous form in mind rather than what she is producing on the court these days. Over the last two seasons Petkovic is just 28-35 when playing top 100 Ranked players and that becomes 16-17 on the hard courts.
Both players have had their issues, but I think Bouchard has been the slightly superior performer which can show up on the scoreboard. Expect breaks of serve and expect a deciding set, but I will look for Bouchard to earn the narrow victory and cover this number.
Alison Riske v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The final pick from the Thursday tennis matches comes from Stanford where I am looking for the underdog Alison Riske to get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
I am not entirely sure why Riske is the underdog considering she has the 3-1 advantage on the head to head and has certainly been showing superior form in recent weeks compared with Pavlyuchenkova.
The better hard court results in 2017 have come from Pavlyuchenkova, but she is returning to the surface after a poor grass court season. This is also an event where Riske reached the Semi Final last season and the American put together a solid win in the First Round which will have given her confidence back in Stanford.
The recent numbers on this surface are very similar for both Riske and Pavlyuchenkova and that is where the recent positive form and the head to head lead Riske has could pay off.
It won't be an easy match for Riske if Pavlyuchenkova is at her best with her ability to hit very big and take the racquet out of the hand of the American. However, I think Riske is playing well enough and Pavlyuchenkova has not been in the best form to think the former can come through with a three set win and I will back the underdog here.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-11, - 8.50 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.61% Yield)
Maria Sharapova has only just returned from a long lay off from injury, but she had to pull out of her Second Round match in Stanford, although the Russian insists it is only a precautionary decision. After all the hullabaloo surrounding her return from the ban imposed by the ITF, Sharapova has had a tough time in 2017 with those injuries beginning to have a toll on her.
She is likely going to have to play the Qualifiers at the US Open barring a surprising Wild Card into the main draw and Sharapova will be hoping she can be healthy for the big events in Toronto and Cincinnati upcoming. All in all it has not been the fairytale return to the Tour that some would have been expecting (remember Sharapova was the second favourite to win the French Open a few days after her return to the Tour) and she looks to be in a position where she will simply be hoping to have a few months of injury free tennis before using the off-season to recharge the batteries.
The tournaments being played this week continue on Thursday and the tennis matches are spread throughout the day with events being played in Europe and North and Central America. With the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos having their markets prepared in the coming hours, I will begin with the two picks from Kitzbuhel before adding any picks I have from those events in Washington, Los Cabos and Stanford.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: It is hard to trust Fabio Fognini when you know this is a player who can blow hot and cold as much as the Italian can. Add in the fact he had a long week in Gstaad where he won the title and those factors do concern me.
He is also facing an opponent in Thomaz Bellucci who is very capable on the clay courts and who has had two solid wins already in the main draw to move into the Quarter Final. Those have come at an important time for the Brazilian who had lost nine of his last ten matches including the last seven in a row before this week.
Some of those losses have been narrow ones which may underline the lack of confidence Bellucci had to be playing with in recent weeks. However narrow losses also means it could be a big ask for Fognini to cover the number of games I am looking from him.
In saying Bellucci has lost some tight matches, I really mean by the numbers rather than on the scoreboard. During his run of nine losses in ten matches, Bellucci was beaten seven times in best of three set matches and would not have covered this number six times.
A poor record against Fognini can't be ignored either, even if there is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind that the Italian could always be in 'gift giving' mode. On this day I am hoping for the motivated Fognini that had been in action last week and I will look for him to find his way past Bellucci with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: It might be something of a surprise that I am taking the games with a player that spends the majority of his time in tournaments on the Challenger Tour when facing an opponent who has played ATP events throughout 2017. But that is the case when I look for Gerald Melzer to give Joao Sousa plenty to think about in this Quarter Final.
You have to give Melzer credit for another good run in Kitzbuhel as he reached a Quarter Final for the second year in a row. Last year Melzer made it through to the Semi Final and I think the two wins he has this week have to be respected.
Now he faces Joao Sousa who has just started winning matches again after a really poor run of form. Sousa reached the Quarter Final last week in Gstaad and he has done the same here despite previously losing eleven of twelve matches on the Tour. That would have knocked the confidence of Sousa and he has needed three sets twice already this week.
If this one is to go into a third set, Melzer will have his chance to cover with this number of games behind him. Melzer has some confidence having had two strong showings in the Challenger events in Perugia and Cortina, although I do respect the fact that Sousa is an upgrade in level of opponent to anyone that Melzer has played since his participating in the Golden Swing tournaments in South America.
Home comforts may help Melzer control the nerves and I think he can keep this match close. His numbers in 2017 have suggested that too, while Sousa is 0-3 when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2017 and with some poor numbers behind him. I will look for Gerald Melzer to take at least a set and that should give him a chance to cover with the games.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: With the Canada Masters event just a few days away, the ATP event in Los Cabos has reached the Quarter Final Round on Thursday. That will give time for the players to head over to Montreal, even those who may be competing on Finals day, and one of those keen to go all the way will be Tomas Berdych.
A great field hasn't been put together for this draw, which is no surprise with the back to back Masters events which will begin next week. Add in the fact there is an ATP 500 event being played in Washington, and this tournament has felt more in line with a glorified Challenger tournament adding in a couple of big names.
Berdych does look the stand out player in the draw and he is a big favourite to see off Adrian Mannarino against whom he has a 4-0 head to head record. That includes a relatively straightforward win in the Miami Masters on the hard courts and I think Berdych is likely to match that margin here.
On that day it ended 6-3, 7-5 for Berdych as he was able to dictate things behind the serve and force a couple of loose games from the Mannarino serve. While I do think the left-handed Frenchman will be able to get through a few games on serve, he is always close to throwing in a really poor one and that can make up for the declining return numbers Berdych has produced over the last twelve months.
To give Berdych his credit, he has been returning a little better in recent matches and I think that will be enough to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are definitely some positive signs for Jared Donaldson as he learns more and more from being on the main ATP Tour. The experiences he is having will be a positive for the 20 year old player in the coming years, but I still think he is a little short of being able to compete with the better players on the Tour.
Jack Sock may not be in the best form and he may have a limited return game which puts pressure on him to serve at his highest level. However he is still strong on the North American hard courts and the heavy forehand can give Donaldson some problems as it did when they met earlier in 2017 in a match where the younger American won just three games.
The Donaldson numbers have been slightly weaker when he has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts compared to when he has faced top 50 players. Slightly weaker service points won and return points won do make a big difference and I think that is going to show up when he faces Sock in the Third Round in Washington.
This isn't the kind of number Sock is used to covering as shown by the fact he has won eleven of twelve matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings on the hard courts, but only in five of those has he covered this number. At odds against it is worth chancing though having shown he can get into the Donaldson service games when they played in Miami as well as Donaldson's generally weaker numbers when serving against top 20 opponents.
Sock will have to take the chances that do come his way, but I think he can earn enough break point chances to bring up three breaks of serve which may be enough for a 7-6, 6-3 win on the day.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for the way he was serving in his Second Round win over Lucas Pouille, although the Frenchman underlined my belief that his limited return game is going to prevent him staying inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
If Paul is serving as well as he was this will be a tough match for Gilles Muller, although the mental edge belongs to the latter having crushed the young American for the loss of four games last week in Atlanta.
Fatigue may have gotten the better of Paul last week as that defeat came after winning four matches in a row all in three sets. That has to be considered, but Paul will also be dealing with the mental pressure of losing return games fairly comfortably if Muller is serving as well as he can.
This is still a big number of games being asked of Muller and I am only interested because it is offered at odds against for him to cover. He crushed Dmitry Tursunov on Wednesday and Paul is coming off a career best win which can be tough for inexperienced players to back up as we see regularly through the course of a year on the Tour.
Muller serving first would be important and I think he can then earn the two breaks to win this one 6-3, 6-4.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: The problem with backing Simona Halep to cover spreads like this one on the hard courts is the fact that her serve is not the biggest and she has to work so hard to protect it. Over the course of a match that means opponents do have their chances to break serve and those can be critical despite the Romanian being the kind of returner who will create plenty of pressure off the return herself.
The return game is very important on the WTA Tour and Mariana Duque-Marino is capable of breaking the Halep serve. The win over Shelby Rogers was impressive in the First Round, but this is another step up in class for Duque-Marino.
She is facing an opponent who has a 14-3 record on the hard courts over the last four years when facing a player Ranked outside the top 100. Halep has been very good in that spot in 2017 with strong numbers produced, but I don't think those are sustainable which is a concern for me.
However, Halep is 9-5 against this number in those fourteen wins in that time while Duque-Marino is 0-6 lifetime against a top 10 Ranked player and is 1-5 with this number of games behind her. Duque-Marino is also 0-7 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and she has only covered with this number of games once and I do think Halep will prove to be too good on the day.
Clay is the best surface for Mariana Duque-Marino and her numbers on the hard courts are slightly weaker across the board compared with clay. While she challenged Halep on the clay back in 2011, Halep is a much stronger player these days and I will look for her to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have said for a few years that Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most overrated players on the WTA Tour with many pricing her up on her one strong season back in 2014. While Bouchard did have a winning record in 2016, this is a player that has struggled on the Tour and her Number 59 World Ranking is testament to that.
The Canadian is overrated and that can be highlighted by the fact she has been a favourite twenty-one times over the last twelve months. Bouchard has won just 33% of those matches which is a remarkably poor record (7-14) and some of her best results in that time have come when set as the underdog and the pressure free environment that may be creating for her.
Even her First Round win here came as the underdog against Christina McHale so I am questioning the fact I am taking Bouchard to win this match as the favourite. However I thought she would be a much stronger favourite to beat the declining Andrea Petkovic who has slipped down to Number 78 in the World Rankings.
Petkovic is just 8-15 on the Tour this season and the German is another player who tends to be priced up with her previous form in mind rather than what she is producing on the court these days. Over the last two seasons Petkovic is just 28-35 when playing top 100 Ranked players and that becomes 16-17 on the hard courts.
Both players have had their issues, but I think Bouchard has been the slightly superior performer which can show up on the scoreboard. Expect breaks of serve and expect a deciding set, but I will look for Bouchard to earn the narrow victory and cover this number.
Alison Riske v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The final pick from the Thursday tennis matches comes from Stanford where I am looking for the underdog Alison Riske to get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
I am not entirely sure why Riske is the underdog considering she has the 3-1 advantage on the head to head and has certainly been showing superior form in recent weeks compared with Pavlyuchenkova.
The better hard court results in 2017 have come from Pavlyuchenkova, but she is returning to the surface after a poor grass court season. This is also an event where Riske reached the Semi Final last season and the American put together a solid win in the First Round which will have given her confidence back in Stanford.
The recent numbers on this surface are very similar for both Riske and Pavlyuchenkova and that is where the recent positive form and the head to head lead Riske has could pay off.
It won't be an easy match for Riske if Pavlyuchenkova is at her best with her ability to hit very big and take the racquet out of the hand of the American. However, I think Riske is playing well enough and Pavlyuchenkova has not been in the best form to think the former can come through with a three set win and I will back the underdog here.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-11, - 8.50 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.61% Yield)
Tuesday, 1 August 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (August 1st)
With one tournament being played in Europe and the other four events taking place in North America, it does mean the Tennis Picks will come out at two times this week.
Anything from Kitzbuhel will hopefully be written first and I will add any picks from the tournaments in Los Cabos, Stanford and Washington at some point after that once the 'order of play' is released. Those picks will still be able to be put together a number of hours before the start of play, and will also be the case with the tournaments in Cincinnati and Canada which are coming up as markets are not fully developed as early as the European ones for those of us based in the United Kingdom.
Last week was a difficult one for the tennis picks with so much bad luck surrounding the picks that it did make the frustration levels reach a significant high. There are bigger tournaments ahead in August which means I won't want another week like that one in what has been a difficult season so far for the tennis picks.
I haven't written anything about Novak Djokovic's decision to withdraw from events for the remainder of the 2017 season.
It was a decision I think Djokovic had to make in light of the injuries and emotional stress he has been feeling. But I am not sure he is going to have the immediate impact Roger Federer did on his return from a lay off at the Australian Open because of the different style of play Djokovic has.
While Federer can turn a match on his racquet, that aggressiveness is not shared by Djokovic and rediscovering the consistency that took the Serb to the top of the men's game is likely to take longer than Federer's attacking game returned. Some will question if Djokovic will ever return to the very top of the men's game, and I do think that could be a valid question with his aura of invincibility ended and some of the younger players perhaps ready to take the next step in their careers.
Ruling out a Djokovic return to peak form would be foolish considering how the likes of Federer and Rafael Nadal have played in 2017, but I do wonder if his style is one that can make a quick return to top form after the lay off he is going to be working through over the next several months.
Tuesday will see the remainder of the First Round matches across the tournaments and it is a busy day with the number of matches set to be played on the Tour. Hopefully it will be one where a positive return can be found.
Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: You wouldn't really tick the mental strength column when breaking down the positives of Robin Haase's game so being 0-3 down to Santiago Giraldo in the head to head has to be a concern. However this is a tournament that Haase has played well in before, winning in Kitzbuhel twice before, although the two recent tournaments here for Haase have not been his best.
He is coming in off a run to the Semi Final in Gstaad although Haase has to pick himself up from the disappointment of losing in the Semi Final. Facing an opponent who has won two Qualifiers in the current conditions of a tournament can be tough too and these factors would usually be enough to put me off picking the Dutchman here.
However I am picking Haase to win this match and win by a wide enough margin to cover the games he is being asked to get the better of. The main reason for that is the performances of Haase this season compared with Giraldo whose numbers have declined since he last played Haase in 2015.
Giraldo has particularly been struggling on the clay courts which has to be a worry for the Colombian. His service numbers have been a real concern and Haase has been returning better than the last couple of years on this surface. It is possible the ball flies a little faster in the altitude, which will help Giraldo's serve, but I think Haase should be capable of getting involved in the return games and that area could be the key in earning his first win over Giraldo.
The Haase serve has been effective enough, although there are obvious concerns backing someone as flaky as the Dutchman can be. However he has enough of an edge at a tournament he has enjoyed in the past to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Giraldo.
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: It was a special week for Yannick Hanfmann in Gstaad having come through the Qualifiers and reaching the Final in Gstaad with some impressive wins under his belt. It was an emotional and physical week for Hanfmann who had to win all four of his main draw matches in three sets before finding Fabio Fognini too good in the Final.
It has moved Hanfmann to the brink of entering the top 100 of the World Rankings as he comes into this tournament at a career best Ranking of Number 125.
That is all a positive for Hanfmann but he hasn't had a lot of time to prepare for this tournament and now faces an opponent who is comfortable on the surface and who can play very well against players Ranked lower than himself. Jiri Vesely feels like a player who needs to be very confident to perform at his best and he tends to be in that position when expected to win a match.
Vesely has reached back to back Quarter Finals in Umag and Hamburg to show he is in good form on the clay courts and he has a very strong return game against players Ranked below him on this surface. That will be tested by Hanfmann if he is serving as well as he was last week, but I do think tiredness has to play a part in this one after investing so much to reach the Final in Gstaad.
I just can't ignore that and I think Hanfmann will be challenged by the Vesely serve which can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win for the Czech player.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Sloane Stephens: After coming so close to winning at the French Open and at Wimbledon, Simona Halep has to show she has the mental strength to deal with her setbacks again. She showed admirable heart at Wimbledon after the really disappointing way Roland Garros ended, but now Halep has to get back to the grind as she takes in a surprising appearance in Washington.
Usually we don't expect to see Halep until the Premier Events in Canada and Cincinnati, but perhaps she feels she needs to get over the disappointment of the last two Slams by getting back on the court. Darren Cahill has made it clear that he wants to see Halep focusing at all times and that has been rewarded with some really positive results over the last three months.
The push towards the US Open will begin for her on Tuesday and in normal circumstances a First Round clash with Sloane Stephens would be far from ideal. The American is going to be well supported here and has had some really good results on the hard courts in her career, although her record against the top 10 Ranked players needs to improve if she is to fulfil the potential people believe she has.
However these aren't normal circumstances as Stephens plays in just her second tournament in twelve months after an injury lay off from the Tour. She played well against Alison Riske at Wimbledon, but it was clear that Stephens is going to need time to get back to the level she once performed at and I am looking for Halep to be a little too good all around for her.
The head to head is only 3-2 in favour of Halep, but she did beat Stephens the last time they met on the hard courts. Barring the American having found some new levels of consistency on her return from injury since Wimbledon, Halep should be able to work her way to a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Most tennis fans who follow the sport outside of the Grand Slams may feel that Catherine Bellis has the kind of potential which will lead to a stronger career than the one Alize Cornet has been able to produce at this stage. Bellis has some very positive numbers which will see her really challenge for the biggest prizes if she can increase those as she gains more experience.
However I do think she may be slightly overrated in this First Round match in Stanford against the Frenchwoman who is capable of playing very well on the hard court. Cornet can be a tough character to trust as she is capable of falling away mentally at any given moment in a match, but she has the return game to trouble Bellis in this one.
If Cornet is serving to the kind of standards she can produce, then she can give Bellis a rough ride in this one and this feels like it may be one game too many being asked of the American to cover.
While Bellis has had some tremendous performances in her young career, she has also struggled at times under the expectations which is not going to be a surprise with her lack of experience. Losses to the likes of Kirsten Flipkens and Naomi Broady as a big favourite on the hard courts has to be a concern for Bellis and I do think she is a little better when going into a match without the expectation of winning.
Bellis is improving in those situations but Cornet can keep this one competitive in the early hours of the morning in the United Kingdom and I will back the Frenchwoman with the games to at least keep this one close.
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: It is hard to gauge where Jordan Thompson is in his career at this stage having had some positive results and some really negative ones. That inconsistency is an obvious concern when backing Thompson fresh off reaching the Final in a Challenger a few days ago, but at least that is more hard court experience of late than Ruben Bemelmans.
This does feel like a match that belongs on the Challenger level compared with the ATP 500 one and I think both Thompson and Bemelmans have to see this as a chance to really improve the World Rankings.
The Thompson numbers at the Challenger level on this surface are impressive enough, but I do want to give Bemelmans his respect. He may not have had the consistency of others players on the Challenger Tour on the hard courts, but Bemelmans has reached the Final of one tournament and the Semi Final of another which deserves respect.
Bemelmans is also 1-3 as an underdog on the hard courts this season and that is the situation in which he finds himself on Tuesday. Playing an opponent who has reached the Final of an event just days earlier may be important, especially when you consider the heat in Washington which was affecting players on Monday, but I am looking for Thompson to have the slight edge which can be found on the scoreboard at the end of the match.
Serving well is going to be important for both players, but I will look for Thompson to battle his way to a 7-6, 6-4 win in this First Round encounter.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Donald Young: This is a match up that has worked in favour of Kei Nishikori more often than not with five wins in six matches against Donald Young. The first match back on the hard courts can be tough for any player and that might be the biggest factor against Kei Nishikori going into this Second Round match.
His opponent Donald Young has had plenty of positive results over the last few weeks and he has a strong winning record on the hard courts which have to be respected. However his numbers are down across the board in 2017 compared with 2016 on this surface and I do wonder if there is going to be a decline in those results over the next month.
Last week Young was hammered by Lukas Lacko in Atlanta where he won just four games and he is going to be challenged by a returner as effective as Nishikori can be. While Young's own returning numbers are not that impressive, he is facing an opponent whose serve can be vulnerable when Nishikori is not feeling at his very best.
I would be concerned about that, but Nishikori should feel comfortable in the match up and that is important for him. While he may take some time getting used to the hard courts back underneath the feet, Nishikori can eventually have too much for Young and break down the American's game.
That should lead to a 6-4, 6-3 win for Nishikori who would have covered this number of games in 3 of the last 4 best of three set matches between these players on the hard courts.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: One player who is potentially going to be overrated going into the hard court season is Mischa Zverev whose numbers on serve are far below where you may expect on this surface. That is a problem for the German with the bigger tournaments ahead, but I still think he will be too good for Guido Pella in this Second Round match in Washington.
Like with many of the Seeds here in Washington this week, Zverev has to work his way back onto the hard courts against an opponent who has been playing in Atlanta last week and won a First Round match here this week. That may make Pella a dangerous player for Zverev, but the hard court numbers of the Argentine over the last three years are far below average.
His serve has not had the impact he would have liked and that is going to give someone like Zverev a chance, even if the German's return game is limited. However Zverev has produced some solid numbers on the return on this surface in 2017 and I think he will find himself in a position to break serve at least twice during the course of the match.
The Pella return has struggled on this surface although he may feel he can have an impact against Zverev if he can make a few awkward returns. Those will come against a player who will look to rush the net as much as possible and produce the serve-volley game that saw him make a big breakthrough at the Australian Open.
A first set tie-breaker could be in the offing, but I can see Zverev using that to help him get past Pella with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: You can see the steady decline in the Fernando Verdasco service numbers on the hard courts over the last three years. It is no surprise that the veteran is beginning to show his age in the numbers, but Verdasco has been continuing to win matches because his return has been a few points better than it has been in recent years.
The declining service numbers do make Verdasco more vulnerable to the upset, but I think the match up should be a good one for him against young American Ernesto Escobedo. The latter's service numbers on the hard courts have not been that impressive and Verdasco's return game should prove to be very successful over the course of the match.
It also has to be noted that Escobedo's return numbers are not that good and he might not be able to expose the declining Verdasco service numbers.
They have met once before in 2017 and Verdasco won a narrow match against Escobedo in two tight sets. The numbers on that day definitely leaned towards Verdasco in line with his season numbers and the same can be said for Escobedo, numbers which should see Verdasco have enough to win this one by a slightly wider margin.
Escobedo was beaten last week by Jared Donaldson and won just four games on the day. In this one he may win a few more games, but Verdasco can win this one 6-4, 6-4.
Peter Polansky - 2.5 games v Yasutaka Uchiyama: The draw in Los Cabos is not exactly the most loaded when you note two players who were in the Granby Challenger last week have been given direct entry into the tournament this week. The First Round match between Peter Polansky and Yasutaka Uchiyama is important for both as it gives them a chance to add some significant Ranking points compared to their usual level.
Both players are much more likely to be found on the Challenger circuit and it is Polansky who has beaten Uchiyama twice on the hard courts in 2017 at that level. That includes a victory over him in Granby last week with the biggest concern for the Canadian being fatigue having reached the Final there before heading over for this tournament.
That could be an issue, but Polansky has shown the superior numbers on the hard courts compared with Uchiyama whose two losses to Polansky have both come since Wimbledon. That's a tough position to be in mentally and the numbers from those matches definitely make for better reading for the Canadian.
It is Polansky who has been the superior returner in both of those matches and he has also been able to protect the second serve more effectively. Combining those two factors has given him the edge and I do think he can make it a hat-trick of wins over someone who will have the mental obstacle to overcome.
Uchiyama may have taken some notes from the last two matches that makes him more effective in this one, but I am looking for Polansky to find his way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Peter Polansky - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Anything from Kitzbuhel will hopefully be written first and I will add any picks from the tournaments in Los Cabos, Stanford and Washington at some point after that once the 'order of play' is released. Those picks will still be able to be put together a number of hours before the start of play, and will also be the case with the tournaments in Cincinnati and Canada which are coming up as markets are not fully developed as early as the European ones for those of us based in the United Kingdom.
Last week was a difficult one for the tennis picks with so much bad luck surrounding the picks that it did make the frustration levels reach a significant high. There are bigger tournaments ahead in August which means I won't want another week like that one in what has been a difficult season so far for the tennis picks.
I haven't written anything about Novak Djokovic's decision to withdraw from events for the remainder of the 2017 season.
It was a decision I think Djokovic had to make in light of the injuries and emotional stress he has been feeling. But I am not sure he is going to have the immediate impact Roger Federer did on his return from a lay off at the Australian Open because of the different style of play Djokovic has.
While Federer can turn a match on his racquet, that aggressiveness is not shared by Djokovic and rediscovering the consistency that took the Serb to the top of the men's game is likely to take longer than Federer's attacking game returned. Some will question if Djokovic will ever return to the very top of the men's game, and I do think that could be a valid question with his aura of invincibility ended and some of the younger players perhaps ready to take the next step in their careers.
Ruling out a Djokovic return to peak form would be foolish considering how the likes of Federer and Rafael Nadal have played in 2017, but I do wonder if his style is one that can make a quick return to top form after the lay off he is going to be working through over the next several months.
Tuesday will see the remainder of the First Round matches across the tournaments and it is a busy day with the number of matches set to be played on the Tour. Hopefully it will be one where a positive return can be found.
Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: You wouldn't really tick the mental strength column when breaking down the positives of Robin Haase's game so being 0-3 down to Santiago Giraldo in the head to head has to be a concern. However this is a tournament that Haase has played well in before, winning in Kitzbuhel twice before, although the two recent tournaments here for Haase have not been his best.
He is coming in off a run to the Semi Final in Gstaad although Haase has to pick himself up from the disappointment of losing in the Semi Final. Facing an opponent who has won two Qualifiers in the current conditions of a tournament can be tough too and these factors would usually be enough to put me off picking the Dutchman here.
However I am picking Haase to win this match and win by a wide enough margin to cover the games he is being asked to get the better of. The main reason for that is the performances of Haase this season compared with Giraldo whose numbers have declined since he last played Haase in 2015.
Giraldo has particularly been struggling on the clay courts which has to be a worry for the Colombian. His service numbers have been a real concern and Haase has been returning better than the last couple of years on this surface. It is possible the ball flies a little faster in the altitude, which will help Giraldo's serve, but I think Haase should be capable of getting involved in the return games and that area could be the key in earning his first win over Giraldo.
The Haase serve has been effective enough, although there are obvious concerns backing someone as flaky as the Dutchman can be. However he has enough of an edge at a tournament he has enjoyed in the past to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Giraldo.
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: It was a special week for Yannick Hanfmann in Gstaad having come through the Qualifiers and reaching the Final in Gstaad with some impressive wins under his belt. It was an emotional and physical week for Hanfmann who had to win all four of his main draw matches in three sets before finding Fabio Fognini too good in the Final.
It has moved Hanfmann to the brink of entering the top 100 of the World Rankings as he comes into this tournament at a career best Ranking of Number 125.
That is all a positive for Hanfmann but he hasn't had a lot of time to prepare for this tournament and now faces an opponent who is comfortable on the surface and who can play very well against players Ranked lower than himself. Jiri Vesely feels like a player who needs to be very confident to perform at his best and he tends to be in that position when expected to win a match.
Vesely has reached back to back Quarter Finals in Umag and Hamburg to show he is in good form on the clay courts and he has a very strong return game against players Ranked below him on this surface. That will be tested by Hanfmann if he is serving as well as he was last week, but I do think tiredness has to play a part in this one after investing so much to reach the Final in Gstaad.
I just can't ignore that and I think Hanfmann will be challenged by the Vesely serve which can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win for the Czech player.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Sloane Stephens: After coming so close to winning at the French Open and at Wimbledon, Simona Halep has to show she has the mental strength to deal with her setbacks again. She showed admirable heart at Wimbledon after the really disappointing way Roland Garros ended, but now Halep has to get back to the grind as she takes in a surprising appearance in Washington.
Usually we don't expect to see Halep until the Premier Events in Canada and Cincinnati, but perhaps she feels she needs to get over the disappointment of the last two Slams by getting back on the court. Darren Cahill has made it clear that he wants to see Halep focusing at all times and that has been rewarded with some really positive results over the last three months.
The push towards the US Open will begin for her on Tuesday and in normal circumstances a First Round clash with Sloane Stephens would be far from ideal. The American is going to be well supported here and has had some really good results on the hard courts in her career, although her record against the top 10 Ranked players needs to improve if she is to fulfil the potential people believe she has.
However these aren't normal circumstances as Stephens plays in just her second tournament in twelve months after an injury lay off from the Tour. She played well against Alison Riske at Wimbledon, but it was clear that Stephens is going to need time to get back to the level she once performed at and I am looking for Halep to be a little too good all around for her.
The head to head is only 3-2 in favour of Halep, but she did beat Stephens the last time they met on the hard courts. Barring the American having found some new levels of consistency on her return from injury since Wimbledon, Halep should be able to work her way to a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Most tennis fans who follow the sport outside of the Grand Slams may feel that Catherine Bellis has the kind of potential which will lead to a stronger career than the one Alize Cornet has been able to produce at this stage. Bellis has some very positive numbers which will see her really challenge for the biggest prizes if she can increase those as she gains more experience.
However I do think she may be slightly overrated in this First Round match in Stanford against the Frenchwoman who is capable of playing very well on the hard court. Cornet can be a tough character to trust as she is capable of falling away mentally at any given moment in a match, but she has the return game to trouble Bellis in this one.
If Cornet is serving to the kind of standards she can produce, then she can give Bellis a rough ride in this one and this feels like it may be one game too many being asked of the American to cover.
While Bellis has had some tremendous performances in her young career, she has also struggled at times under the expectations which is not going to be a surprise with her lack of experience. Losses to the likes of Kirsten Flipkens and Naomi Broady as a big favourite on the hard courts has to be a concern for Bellis and I do think she is a little better when going into a match without the expectation of winning.
Bellis is improving in those situations but Cornet can keep this one competitive in the early hours of the morning in the United Kingdom and I will back the Frenchwoman with the games to at least keep this one close.
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: It is hard to gauge where Jordan Thompson is in his career at this stage having had some positive results and some really negative ones. That inconsistency is an obvious concern when backing Thompson fresh off reaching the Final in a Challenger a few days ago, but at least that is more hard court experience of late than Ruben Bemelmans.
This does feel like a match that belongs on the Challenger level compared with the ATP 500 one and I think both Thompson and Bemelmans have to see this as a chance to really improve the World Rankings.
The Thompson numbers at the Challenger level on this surface are impressive enough, but I do want to give Bemelmans his respect. He may not have had the consistency of others players on the Challenger Tour on the hard courts, but Bemelmans has reached the Final of one tournament and the Semi Final of another which deserves respect.
Bemelmans is also 1-3 as an underdog on the hard courts this season and that is the situation in which he finds himself on Tuesday. Playing an opponent who has reached the Final of an event just days earlier may be important, especially when you consider the heat in Washington which was affecting players on Monday, but I am looking for Thompson to have the slight edge which can be found on the scoreboard at the end of the match.
Serving well is going to be important for both players, but I will look for Thompson to battle his way to a 7-6, 6-4 win in this First Round encounter.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Donald Young: This is a match up that has worked in favour of Kei Nishikori more often than not with five wins in six matches against Donald Young. The first match back on the hard courts can be tough for any player and that might be the biggest factor against Kei Nishikori going into this Second Round match.
His opponent Donald Young has had plenty of positive results over the last few weeks and he has a strong winning record on the hard courts which have to be respected. However his numbers are down across the board in 2017 compared with 2016 on this surface and I do wonder if there is going to be a decline in those results over the next month.
Last week Young was hammered by Lukas Lacko in Atlanta where he won just four games and he is going to be challenged by a returner as effective as Nishikori can be. While Young's own returning numbers are not that impressive, he is facing an opponent whose serve can be vulnerable when Nishikori is not feeling at his very best.
I would be concerned about that, but Nishikori should feel comfortable in the match up and that is important for him. While he may take some time getting used to the hard courts back underneath the feet, Nishikori can eventually have too much for Young and break down the American's game.
That should lead to a 6-4, 6-3 win for Nishikori who would have covered this number of games in 3 of the last 4 best of three set matches between these players on the hard courts.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: One player who is potentially going to be overrated going into the hard court season is Mischa Zverev whose numbers on serve are far below where you may expect on this surface. That is a problem for the German with the bigger tournaments ahead, but I still think he will be too good for Guido Pella in this Second Round match in Washington.
Like with many of the Seeds here in Washington this week, Zverev has to work his way back onto the hard courts against an opponent who has been playing in Atlanta last week and won a First Round match here this week. That may make Pella a dangerous player for Zverev, but the hard court numbers of the Argentine over the last three years are far below average.
His serve has not had the impact he would have liked and that is going to give someone like Zverev a chance, even if the German's return game is limited. However Zverev has produced some solid numbers on the return on this surface in 2017 and I think he will find himself in a position to break serve at least twice during the course of the match.
The Pella return has struggled on this surface although he may feel he can have an impact against Zverev if he can make a few awkward returns. Those will come against a player who will look to rush the net as much as possible and produce the serve-volley game that saw him make a big breakthrough at the Australian Open.
A first set tie-breaker could be in the offing, but I can see Zverev using that to help him get past Pella with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: You can see the steady decline in the Fernando Verdasco service numbers on the hard courts over the last three years. It is no surprise that the veteran is beginning to show his age in the numbers, but Verdasco has been continuing to win matches because his return has been a few points better than it has been in recent years.
The declining service numbers do make Verdasco more vulnerable to the upset, but I think the match up should be a good one for him against young American Ernesto Escobedo. The latter's service numbers on the hard courts have not been that impressive and Verdasco's return game should prove to be very successful over the course of the match.
It also has to be noted that Escobedo's return numbers are not that good and he might not be able to expose the declining Verdasco service numbers.
They have met once before in 2017 and Verdasco won a narrow match against Escobedo in two tight sets. The numbers on that day definitely leaned towards Verdasco in line with his season numbers and the same can be said for Escobedo, numbers which should see Verdasco have enough to win this one by a slightly wider margin.
Escobedo was beaten last week by Jared Donaldson and won just four games on the day. In this one he may win a few more games, but Verdasco can win this one 6-4, 6-4.
Peter Polansky - 2.5 games v Yasutaka Uchiyama: The draw in Los Cabos is not exactly the most loaded when you note two players who were in the Granby Challenger last week have been given direct entry into the tournament this week. The First Round match between Peter Polansky and Yasutaka Uchiyama is important for both as it gives them a chance to add some significant Ranking points compared to their usual level.
Both players are much more likely to be found on the Challenger circuit and it is Polansky who has beaten Uchiyama twice on the hard courts in 2017 at that level. That includes a victory over him in Granby last week with the biggest concern for the Canadian being fatigue having reached the Final there before heading over for this tournament.
That could be an issue, but Polansky has shown the superior numbers on the hard courts compared with Uchiyama whose two losses to Polansky have both come since Wimbledon. That's a tough position to be in mentally and the numbers from those matches definitely make for better reading for the Canadian.
It is Polansky who has been the superior returner in both of those matches and he has also been able to protect the second serve more effectively. Combining those two factors has given him the edge and I do think he can make it a hat-trick of wins over someone who will have the mental obstacle to overcome.
Uchiyama may have taken some notes from the last two matches that makes him more effective in this one, but I am looking for Polansky to find his way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Peter Polansky - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Saturday, 23 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 23rd)
I am not able to access a computer on Friday but I wanted to put up my Saturday picks after another solid day of picks.
I don't have the time for a full write up, but I will put up my picks below and add those from Washington and Stanford later as I have all week.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-12, + 5.42 Units (58 Units Staked, + 9.34% Yield)
I don't have the time for a full write up, but I will put up my picks below and add those from Washington and Stanford later as I have all week.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-12, + 5.42 Units (58 Units Staked, + 9.34% Yield)
Friday, 22 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 22nd)
The first couple of days of this week were pretty poor, but there has been some kind of recovery in the last couple of days.
At the time of writing this post, I still have two picks running from Washington and Stanford and if both of those come in I should be very close to getting this week back into the positive.
In the mean time I have started making my picks from the matches to be played on Friday when the Quarter Finals take over in the majority of the tournaments, although Kitzbuhel has already gotten to the Semi Final Round of that event.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Damir Dzumhur has beaten one Italian already this week, but now he takes on the best player from that nation on the ATP Tour in Fabio Fognini. There will be a revenge element in play for Dzumhur who was beaten in straight sets by Fognini last year in Umag in a Second Round match, although there is more on the line this time around with a Semi Final berth awaiting the winner.
I wasn't sure how Fognini was going to react to losing Rubber 4 in the Davis Cup Quarter Final on Sunday, although it has to be noted he looked the better player for much of that defeat to Federico Delbonis. I think he was struggling physically, but he should be well rested by Friday having needed to win just one match to get to this Quarter Final.
It has been a disappointing season for Fognini on the clay courts and he still has a losing record on the surface going into this match. That is in contrast to Dzumhur who has a winning record even though he has had to come through Qualifiers in a number of big tournaments. However he had lost four in a row on the clay prior to his win here earlier in the week and Dzumhur is not going to overpower Fognini in this one.
There should be some long rallies in this one as both players are capable of producing strong defensive tennis, but I think Fognini is the better player and that should eventually show. Last year he was a fairly comfortable winner, but this year it might be a closer 75, 64 kind of win for the Italian as he gets through to a rare Semi Final in 2016.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: It was a withdrawal from Angelique Kerber which allowed Lara Arruabarrena through to the Quarter Final, but she faces another German if she wants to go any further in the draw. Laura Siegemund reached the Semi Final in Bucharest last week and she has had her best results on the clay courts this season which makes her the favourite.
This has already been a career year for Siegemund and she has played some solid tennis to get through to the Quarter Final. Both of her wins have come in straight sets and I think Siegemund has the kind of game that will give Arruabarrena a lot to deal with.
The last seven losses Arruabarrena has had on the clay courts has seen her fail to get within this number and someone like Siegemund can get the better of her here. The Spaniard did reach the Semi Final in Bastad last season which would suggest she is comfortable in the conditions at this tournament, but Arruabarrena is not in really strong form at the moment.
Missing a match might keep her physically ready for this match, but it isn't enough against someone who will be battle hardened and I expect Siegemund to come through 64, 64.
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Annika Beck: This has been a tournament that Johanna Larsson has loved playing at throughout her career with three Final appearances here. The defending Champion plays well in front of her own supporters and I think she can get the better of Annika Beck in what could be a very competitive Quarter Final.
I have to respect what Beck will bring to the table which can cause Larsson some problems. We saw Sara Sorribes Tormo give Larsson a hard time by making a few more balls back in play and Beck will be looking to do that throughout this match and try and break down the home favourite mentally as well as physically.
One difference between the players is that Larsson has a much bigger serve than her opponent and I expect her to get a few more free points in this one. Larsson broke the Sorribes Tormo serve every time on Thursday and she will have a chance to play first strike tennis against the Beck serve in this Quarter Final with much of the match on her racquet.
Larsson has been a dominant force in her home tournament over the seasons and she doesn't drop a lot of sets here in winning efforts. I expect her to win this match and so I will back her to cover this number in a three set win.
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: There was an element of fortune about Samantha Stosur's Second Round win over Caroline Wozniacki as the latter had to retire with an injury while leading by a set. Now it is up to the Australian to make use of her reprieve in the draw and look to push on for another title on the hard courts in North America.
She looks to have been given a favourable draw against Jessica Pegula of the United States, even if the latter has produced two quality wins so far this week. This has been the first main Tour hard court tournament that the young American has entered this year and wins over Aleksandra Wozniak and Christine McHale, both in straight sets, are decent results to move forward with.
Some of the other results on the hard courts have been less impressive from Pegula this season but Stosur should give her respect considering she pushed Dominika Cibulkova to three sets last year at the US Open. The difference between Cibulkova and Stosur is the latter will produce some big time serving which will increase the pressure on Pegula who is trying to back up a huge upset win over McHale.
Stosur isn't at the same level that saw her win the US Open and the backhand remains a weakness, while she hasn't been blowing players off court too often on the hard courts. However she does save her best tennis for the US hard court swing and I am going to back her to cover a very big number at odds against.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Saisai Zheng: It has been a spectacular twelve months for Johanna Konta who will be amongst the Seeds at the US Open but I think the British Number 1 will be the first to admit to her disappointment with the way the grass court season went for her. A run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne was a solid result, but she was beaten in the Second Round in each of her other three events, including at Wimbledon.
One of the more disappointing defeats had to be the one suffered at the hands of Saisai Zheng, a player Konta had beaten fairly comfortably the previous two times they had met. I am not sure if there was a physical issue there, or whether the mental pressure of playing at home was the reason for that loss, but Konta looked good in her opening win in Stanford.
Both of Zheng's wins this week have looked good too, particularly the way she dismissed Alize Cornet in the last Round. However her game is one that Konta won't be overawed by and the latter has to feel she can get into those service games and earn break points through the contest.
The issue for Konta in Nottingham was that she simply did not serve well enough to keep Zheng under pressure and made too many mistakes through the match. That won't get it done against a solid, if unspectacular, opponent and Konta will know she has to be a little cleverer at the big moments to make this an easier day in the office.
The first serve is the key for Konta- if she can dominate behind that shot, I would expect she will have enough chances to record a 64, 63 win in this one and that is what I will be backing.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: A strong end to the tournament in Washington will give Dominika Cibulkova every chance to work her way back into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Cibulkova is now a married player on the Tour and that has worked out well for some of the ATP players over the last couple of years and it will be interesting to see how it works out for her.
She played well in her first win in Washington, but Cibulkova's issue will always be protecting the serve well enough to come through matches on the faster hard courts. Her run to the Australian Open Final suggests she can do that, but the North American hard courts tend to play a little faster than the ones 'Down Under'.
Being overpowered shouldn't be a concern for Cibulkova in this Quarter Final as she meets Misaki Doi for the first time in their careers. Doi has won two matches as a strong favourite, but the First Round was far from straight forward and this is a player that has plenty of issues with her own serve.
The key for Doi is to try and stay in the rallies and look for an aggressive Cibulkova to make a lot of unforced errors as she starts chasing the lines. However I do think Cibulkova will have success on the return against a weak serve and I believe the Slovakian can move through to the Semi Final behind a 76, 62 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: There is no doubt that Coco Vandeweghe is still a very erratic player capable of mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, but she needs to find a little more consistency if she is going to be Seeded at the US Open. Her come from behind win over Nicole Gibbs would have given her confidence, but Vandeweghe will have to be a lot stronger in a lot of departments if she is going to see off compatriot Alison Riske in this Quarter Final.
It has been a difficult season for Riske when it comes to trying to find the consistency to improve her own World Ranking, but she does have a few Finals to call upon. Coming off a decent grass court season, although one that saw her disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon, should have raised the confidence levels backed up by two come from behind wins in Stanford.
However I do wonder if that is going to have a physical effect on Riske having played six sets compared with three Vandeweghe has played. She hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks which should help, but there is only so many times you can go to the well and recover from a set down, with the mental fatigue also a potential factor.
My concern whenever I back Vandeweghe is that her aggressive style will lead to a lot of unforced errors which gifts breaks of serve away. The actual serve is a big weapon, but you have to follow that up correctly and failure to do that will give Riske a way into this match. In saying that, I think the latter has played a lot of tennis already this week and I don't think it will be possible for her to come back from a set behind again and I like Vandeweghe to move through behind a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 1.84 Units (46 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
At the time of writing this post, I still have two picks running from Washington and Stanford and if both of those come in I should be very close to getting this week back into the positive.
In the mean time I have started making my picks from the matches to be played on Friday when the Quarter Finals take over in the majority of the tournaments, although Kitzbuhel has already gotten to the Semi Final Round of that event.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Damir Dzumhur has beaten one Italian already this week, but now he takes on the best player from that nation on the ATP Tour in Fabio Fognini. There will be a revenge element in play for Dzumhur who was beaten in straight sets by Fognini last year in Umag in a Second Round match, although there is more on the line this time around with a Semi Final berth awaiting the winner.
I wasn't sure how Fognini was going to react to losing Rubber 4 in the Davis Cup Quarter Final on Sunday, although it has to be noted he looked the better player for much of that defeat to Federico Delbonis. I think he was struggling physically, but he should be well rested by Friday having needed to win just one match to get to this Quarter Final.
It has been a disappointing season for Fognini on the clay courts and he still has a losing record on the surface going into this match. That is in contrast to Dzumhur who has a winning record even though he has had to come through Qualifiers in a number of big tournaments. However he had lost four in a row on the clay prior to his win here earlier in the week and Dzumhur is not going to overpower Fognini in this one.
There should be some long rallies in this one as both players are capable of producing strong defensive tennis, but I think Fognini is the better player and that should eventually show. Last year he was a fairly comfortable winner, but this year it might be a closer 75, 64 kind of win for the Italian as he gets through to a rare Semi Final in 2016.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: It was a withdrawal from Angelique Kerber which allowed Lara Arruabarrena through to the Quarter Final, but she faces another German if she wants to go any further in the draw. Laura Siegemund reached the Semi Final in Bucharest last week and she has had her best results on the clay courts this season which makes her the favourite.
This has already been a career year for Siegemund and she has played some solid tennis to get through to the Quarter Final. Both of her wins have come in straight sets and I think Siegemund has the kind of game that will give Arruabarrena a lot to deal with.
The last seven losses Arruabarrena has had on the clay courts has seen her fail to get within this number and someone like Siegemund can get the better of her here. The Spaniard did reach the Semi Final in Bastad last season which would suggest she is comfortable in the conditions at this tournament, but Arruabarrena is not in really strong form at the moment.
Missing a match might keep her physically ready for this match, but it isn't enough against someone who will be battle hardened and I expect Siegemund to come through 64, 64.
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Annika Beck: This has been a tournament that Johanna Larsson has loved playing at throughout her career with three Final appearances here. The defending Champion plays well in front of her own supporters and I think she can get the better of Annika Beck in what could be a very competitive Quarter Final.
I have to respect what Beck will bring to the table which can cause Larsson some problems. We saw Sara Sorribes Tormo give Larsson a hard time by making a few more balls back in play and Beck will be looking to do that throughout this match and try and break down the home favourite mentally as well as physically.
One difference between the players is that Larsson has a much bigger serve than her opponent and I expect her to get a few more free points in this one. Larsson broke the Sorribes Tormo serve every time on Thursday and she will have a chance to play first strike tennis against the Beck serve in this Quarter Final with much of the match on her racquet.
Larsson has been a dominant force in her home tournament over the seasons and she doesn't drop a lot of sets here in winning efforts. I expect her to win this match and so I will back her to cover this number in a three set win.
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: There was an element of fortune about Samantha Stosur's Second Round win over Caroline Wozniacki as the latter had to retire with an injury while leading by a set. Now it is up to the Australian to make use of her reprieve in the draw and look to push on for another title on the hard courts in North America.
She looks to have been given a favourable draw against Jessica Pegula of the United States, even if the latter has produced two quality wins so far this week. This has been the first main Tour hard court tournament that the young American has entered this year and wins over Aleksandra Wozniak and Christine McHale, both in straight sets, are decent results to move forward with.
Some of the other results on the hard courts have been less impressive from Pegula this season but Stosur should give her respect considering she pushed Dominika Cibulkova to three sets last year at the US Open. The difference between Cibulkova and Stosur is the latter will produce some big time serving which will increase the pressure on Pegula who is trying to back up a huge upset win over McHale.
Stosur isn't at the same level that saw her win the US Open and the backhand remains a weakness, while she hasn't been blowing players off court too often on the hard courts. However she does save her best tennis for the US hard court swing and I am going to back her to cover a very big number at odds against.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Saisai Zheng: It has been a spectacular twelve months for Johanna Konta who will be amongst the Seeds at the US Open but I think the British Number 1 will be the first to admit to her disappointment with the way the grass court season went for her. A run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne was a solid result, but she was beaten in the Second Round in each of her other three events, including at Wimbledon.
One of the more disappointing defeats had to be the one suffered at the hands of Saisai Zheng, a player Konta had beaten fairly comfortably the previous two times they had met. I am not sure if there was a physical issue there, or whether the mental pressure of playing at home was the reason for that loss, but Konta looked good in her opening win in Stanford.
Both of Zheng's wins this week have looked good too, particularly the way she dismissed Alize Cornet in the last Round. However her game is one that Konta won't be overawed by and the latter has to feel she can get into those service games and earn break points through the contest.
The issue for Konta in Nottingham was that she simply did not serve well enough to keep Zheng under pressure and made too many mistakes through the match. That won't get it done against a solid, if unspectacular, opponent and Konta will know she has to be a little cleverer at the big moments to make this an easier day in the office.
The first serve is the key for Konta- if she can dominate behind that shot, I would expect she will have enough chances to record a 64, 63 win in this one and that is what I will be backing.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: A strong end to the tournament in Washington will give Dominika Cibulkova every chance to work her way back into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Cibulkova is now a married player on the Tour and that has worked out well for some of the ATP players over the last couple of years and it will be interesting to see how it works out for her.
She played well in her first win in Washington, but Cibulkova's issue will always be protecting the serve well enough to come through matches on the faster hard courts. Her run to the Australian Open Final suggests she can do that, but the North American hard courts tend to play a little faster than the ones 'Down Under'.
Being overpowered shouldn't be a concern for Cibulkova in this Quarter Final as she meets Misaki Doi for the first time in their careers. Doi has won two matches as a strong favourite, but the First Round was far from straight forward and this is a player that has plenty of issues with her own serve.
The key for Doi is to try and stay in the rallies and look for an aggressive Cibulkova to make a lot of unforced errors as she starts chasing the lines. However I do think Cibulkova will have success on the return against a weak serve and I believe the Slovakian can move through to the Semi Final behind a 76, 62 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: There is no doubt that Coco Vandeweghe is still a very erratic player capable of mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, but she needs to find a little more consistency if she is going to be Seeded at the US Open. Her come from behind win over Nicole Gibbs would have given her confidence, but Vandeweghe will have to be a lot stronger in a lot of departments if she is going to see off compatriot Alison Riske in this Quarter Final.
It has been a difficult season for Riske when it comes to trying to find the consistency to improve her own World Ranking, but she does have a few Finals to call upon. Coming off a decent grass court season, although one that saw her disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon, should have raised the confidence levels backed up by two come from behind wins in Stanford.
However I do wonder if that is going to have a physical effect on Riske having played six sets compared with three Vandeweghe has played. She hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks which should help, but there is only so many times you can go to the well and recover from a set down, with the mental fatigue also a potential factor.
My concern whenever I back Vandeweghe is that her aggressive style will lead to a lot of unforced errors which gifts breaks of serve away. The actual serve is a big weapon, but you have to follow that up correctly and failure to do that will give Riske a way into this match. In saying that, I think the latter has played a lot of tennis already this week and I don't think it will be possible for her to come back from a set behind again and I like Vandeweghe to move through behind a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 1.84 Units (46 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Thursday, 21 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 21st)
The Canadian Masters and Premier Event are being played next week rather than in August and the timing of the event has seen a number of the big names decide to pull out of the event. While many of the top Singles players will be taking part at the Olympic Games, others have decided that this change in their usual schedule is not worth undertaking and the event, particularly the ATP event, has taken a big hit in star power.
The likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have pulled out all citing they need more time to recover physically from Wimbledon/wrist injury and much of that has to be have been affected by this tournament moving forward at least two weeks.
Others have followed suit although notably not Novak Djokovic (not yet anyway) and I think the Toronto Masters now looks a big chance for someone to pick up some huge Ranking points and perhaps the biggest title of their career.
Thursday will see a number of tennis matches played across the seven tournaments being played this week and we are beginning to get to the business end of events. It is the final non-hard court events on the main Tour for the rest of the season and the run to the US Open will begin next week in Canada and take in a number of stops on the road to New York at the end of August.
Robin Haase - 1.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: It might be Horacio Zeballos who is Ranked higher than Robin Haase, but I think the Dutchman is rightly considered the favourite in this Gstaad Second Round match.
Both players have come through their First Round match relatively comfortably and some may look to the underdog considering how well Zeballos has played on the clay courts at the Challenger level. In recent weeks Zeballos has won two Challenger events on this surface and reached the Final in another, but he has not been able to turn that success into wins on the main Tour.
Zeballos did play well in reaching the Second Round at this tournament last season, coming through the Qualifiers to get to that Round. However you have to wonder if he has the consistency to play at the highest level even if he is playing against an opponent that is far from consistent and capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match when not expecting him to do so.
2016 has been a tough season for Haase who is in danger of slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but a strong end to this tournament will get him moving in the right direction. Haase has had some disappointing losses on the clay this season, but the summer months have seen him produce his best tennis and he could be in line for another strong run in this tournament.
I don't think this will be easy and I wouldn't be surprised to see some twists and turns through the match, but I do think Haase is capable of winning this one 64, 36, 63.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The Second Round match between Johanna Larsson and Sara Sorribes Tormo will be played in Bastad on Thursday. While Larsson came through her First Round match without too much fuss, Sorribes Tormo had to play three sets in her own First Round encounter after coming through two Qualifiers before that.
The young Spaniard has won a couple of titles at the levels below the WTA Tour and she will clearly favour clay with much of her life seeing her play on this surface. That will make Sorribes Tormo a threat, but she has yet to turn her successful results into deep, positive runs on the main Tour.
Last week it took Timea Bacsinszky to stop Sorribes Tormo's run, and the same player beat Larsson in the Quarter Final. It was a poor serving display from Larsson in that one, but that is one of her big weapons especially the kick she can get out of it, while being at home has proven to be a positive experience in the past.
Larsson won the title here last season without dropping a set and that was after twice previously being a losing Finalist in Bastad. Her game seems to work here and the motivation of playing in front of her home supporters clearly keeps her focused and I think Larsson can use all of her experience to get the better of Sorribes Tormo here too.
As long as she serves well, I think Larsson will have chances to break the Sorribes Tormo serve and come through this one 64, 64.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: There are times when I have to question the scheduling players have and this is one of those times after seeing Angelique Kerber in the draw. I am not entirely sure what has motivated the Australian Open Champion to take in another clay court tournament in a season where just 6 of her 35 wins have come on the surface, but now she is here I would expect a full effort.
Anything less will mean Kerber is going out of the tournament in the Second Round against Lara Arruabarrena. The latter might be Number 98 in the World Rankings, but Arruabarrena has had her best results on the clay and would have another winning record in a single season on this surface if she can win this match.
Some of the defeats have been disappointing for Arruabarrena and she has been beaten in all three previous matches against Kerber. That includes a tight three set defeat in Charleston earlier this season, but you can't ignore the fact that Kerber had lost four in a row on the clay courts outdoors, even if she did win the title in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court.
Motivation is a concern when backing Kerber this week, but she showed enough in coming back from a set down to beat Cornelia Lister in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for her in any shape or form against a clay court specialist, but I think Kerber can battle through for a 46, 62, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: This is a big match for two players who have perhaps slipped further down the World Rankings than they would like to see. Bethanie Mattek-Sands is hoping to improve her own Ranking to ensure she can earn a direct entry into the US Open played next month, while Julia Goerges has to feel she is much better than her current Number 73 in the World Ranking.
I think Mattek-Sands was fortunate with the draw when meeting Kiki Bertens who reached the Final in a rain hit Gstaad last week. A lot of her matches were played in a short period of time at the end of the rain affected week which would have sapped physical strength as Bertens got through to the Final and I do think the American took advantage of that.
It is a big win and Mattek-Sands is capable of producing some big time tennis when she is in her best form. She will need all of that to beat Goerges in this Second Round match as the latter is the superior clay court player and can match the power that Mattek-Sands will bring to the court.
Goerges will again need to serve well and make sure she remains mentally focused when things are not going completely her way. Keeping unforced errors down and working Mattek-Sands around is important if she is to make it three wins in a row against the American, but I like Goerges' chances to do that.
The German did beat Mattek-Sands in straight sets earlier this season in Rome and I think she can match that with a 75, 64 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Two American players meet in the Second Round in Stanford in the final match of the day and it is Coco Vandeweghe who is a healthy favourite against Nicole Gibbs. I can't disagree with that even if Gibbs is in the midst of her best season on the Tour.
As well as Gibbs has played at times, her serve remains very vulnerable and that has seen her defeats come by wide margins. In her six defeats on the hard courts this season, Gibbs' opponents would have covered this number four times and Coco Vandeweghe has the kind of firepower that will cause her a few problems.
That will only be amplified if Vandeweghe is serving as well as she can and the pressure on Gibbs will come from the other side of the court and the scoreboard. It will be tough to ignore that on the faster surfaces where one break could be enough for someone like Vandeweghe to take the set and she can be a strong front runner as confidence builds.
My one concern for Vandeweghe has to be the poor run she had on the North American courts at this time last year and she can be a little loose when the break points come her way. However I think she will create enough chances to win this one 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals to be played on Friday.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the in-form players on the Tour is Steve Johnson who made a strong start to his hard court season with a convincing win over Adrian Mannarino. He should expect a much stronger challenge from Ryan Harrison, even if the latter is Number 158 in the World Rankings.
Harrison has really struggled for consistency since his breakout year on the Tour in 2012 and the majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days. However Harrison still has a pretty big serve and can play some strong stuff on the hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent despite what the World Ranking may indicate.
He has already won three matches here in Washington having come through the Qualifiers and Harrison certainly has an ability to steal sets off of his opponents on the hard courts even if he ultimately comes up short in the match. It has to be a concern in backing Steve Johnson who might be full of confidence, but who has a losing record on the hard courts this season.
Johnson did reach the Semi Final in Washington last season and will be looking to match that performance to make sure he keeps his Ranking high enough to be Seeded at his home Grand Slam next month. The higher Ranked American in this contest has certainly been serving very well and I think he can get the better of Harrison in this one although it is likely to be in two competitive sets as I look for Johnson to come through 76, 63.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: Most of the players left in the men's draw in Washington are Seeded players, but part of the reason we haven't seen a clean sweep is because of Daniel Evans. The British player was a deserving winner over an out of form Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round and he will be looking to back that up when he faces Jack Sock on Thursday.
A place in the Quarter Final is at stake and it would be a huge boost for Evans in terms of his World Ranking which was at a career high just last week. He is still inside the top 100 and Evans will be looking to keep that Ranking trending in the right direction, but the win over Dimitrov might make him a little over-rated in this one.
There is no doubting that Jack Sock has plenty of room for improvement including backing up his serve more effectively than he does and improving his return game. However the American does have some heavy groundstrokes, particularly the forehand wing, and Sock will be looking for a run that could potentially see him move inside the top 20 in the World Rankings.
Sock had a tough win over Lukas Lacko in the last Round and the next few weeks present him a real chance to put up some big Ranking points with nothing much to defend. He did reach the Quarter Final in Washington last season and Evans hasn't played too many matches at this level over the last few seasons. I respect how well he played to see off Dimitrov, but Sock should be a much more confident player and can win this one 76, 63.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: At Wimbledon, John Isner made it seven straight wins over Marcos Baghdatis and I think the American will have his chances to make it eight in a row on Thursday. His serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but the key to this one is that Baghdatis is likely to throw in a cheap service game or two which can be difficult to retrieve on the faster hard courts.
Their match at Wimbledon was close, but I do think Baghdatis is more comfortable on the grass than Isner, whereas the hard courts are much more to Isner's liking. Both players performed well to win their Second Round matches on Wednesday, but this is a step up in competition for both and the mental edge has to be given to Isner considering their previous head to head match ups.
When Baghdatis builds up some momentum he can be tough to stop, but there are plenty of early exits on the hard courts that the Cypriot has experienced over the last few seasons. Too many second serves gives players a chance to have a real swing against him and Baghdatis has to be mentally right at the races to stay with Isner in this one.
The Davis Cup loss to Marin Cilic was a big disappointment for Isner but he has an easier way to get over those mental blows with his serve being a huge weapon on the hard courts. He might need a tie-breaker to win the first set, but I think Isner will then have a few chances against the Baghdatis serve as tiredness and scoreboard pressure build up which will lead to a 76, 64 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: One of the most frustrating players on the Tour has to be Alexandr Dolgopolov who has all the talent, but rarely makes the right shot selection. He looks like a player that simply goes out on the court and will play his own way regardless of whether it is the right tactic for the day and Dolgopolov will take his chances whether he wins or loses.
I don't know if it matters to him so much if he doesn't win and so it can be hard to know what exactly you are going to see from the Dolgopolov racquet on any given day.
That is not the case with Sam Querrey who will look to dominate behind a big serve and heavy forehand wherever possible. The win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon has raised his stock, but it is important for Querrey to back that up over the next few weeks on what should be his favoured hard courts.
Querrey has had an inconsistent year on the hard courts with early losses in Indian Wells and Miami, but winning a title in Delray Beach. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks which will give him a chance to really improve his Number 29 position in the World Rankings and the American has won his last three matches against Dolgopolov including both matches last season.
I just believe Querrey won't be as erratic as Dolgopolov who had success at this stage of the Tour last year but who has been very inconsistent through 2016. It should be an interesting match while it lasts but I think Querrey can come through and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 25.53% Yield)
The likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have pulled out all citing they need more time to recover physically from Wimbledon/wrist injury and much of that has to be have been affected by this tournament moving forward at least two weeks.
Others have followed suit although notably not Novak Djokovic (not yet anyway) and I think the Toronto Masters now looks a big chance for someone to pick up some huge Ranking points and perhaps the biggest title of their career.
Thursday will see a number of tennis matches played across the seven tournaments being played this week and we are beginning to get to the business end of events. It is the final non-hard court events on the main Tour for the rest of the season and the run to the US Open will begin next week in Canada and take in a number of stops on the road to New York at the end of August.
Robin Haase - 1.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: It might be Horacio Zeballos who is Ranked higher than Robin Haase, but I think the Dutchman is rightly considered the favourite in this Gstaad Second Round match.
Both players have come through their First Round match relatively comfortably and some may look to the underdog considering how well Zeballos has played on the clay courts at the Challenger level. In recent weeks Zeballos has won two Challenger events on this surface and reached the Final in another, but he has not been able to turn that success into wins on the main Tour.
Zeballos did play well in reaching the Second Round at this tournament last season, coming through the Qualifiers to get to that Round. However you have to wonder if he has the consistency to play at the highest level even if he is playing against an opponent that is far from consistent and capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match when not expecting him to do so.
2016 has been a tough season for Haase who is in danger of slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but a strong end to this tournament will get him moving in the right direction. Haase has had some disappointing losses on the clay this season, but the summer months have seen him produce his best tennis and he could be in line for another strong run in this tournament.
I don't think this will be easy and I wouldn't be surprised to see some twists and turns through the match, but I do think Haase is capable of winning this one 64, 36, 63.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The Second Round match between Johanna Larsson and Sara Sorribes Tormo will be played in Bastad on Thursday. While Larsson came through her First Round match without too much fuss, Sorribes Tormo had to play three sets in her own First Round encounter after coming through two Qualifiers before that.
The young Spaniard has won a couple of titles at the levels below the WTA Tour and she will clearly favour clay with much of her life seeing her play on this surface. That will make Sorribes Tormo a threat, but she has yet to turn her successful results into deep, positive runs on the main Tour.
Last week it took Timea Bacsinszky to stop Sorribes Tormo's run, and the same player beat Larsson in the Quarter Final. It was a poor serving display from Larsson in that one, but that is one of her big weapons especially the kick she can get out of it, while being at home has proven to be a positive experience in the past.
Larsson won the title here last season without dropping a set and that was after twice previously being a losing Finalist in Bastad. Her game seems to work here and the motivation of playing in front of her home supporters clearly keeps her focused and I think Larsson can use all of her experience to get the better of Sorribes Tormo here too.
As long as she serves well, I think Larsson will have chances to break the Sorribes Tormo serve and come through this one 64, 64.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: There are times when I have to question the scheduling players have and this is one of those times after seeing Angelique Kerber in the draw. I am not entirely sure what has motivated the Australian Open Champion to take in another clay court tournament in a season where just 6 of her 35 wins have come on the surface, but now she is here I would expect a full effort.
Anything less will mean Kerber is going out of the tournament in the Second Round against Lara Arruabarrena. The latter might be Number 98 in the World Rankings, but Arruabarrena has had her best results on the clay and would have another winning record in a single season on this surface if she can win this match.
Some of the defeats have been disappointing for Arruabarrena and she has been beaten in all three previous matches against Kerber. That includes a tight three set defeat in Charleston earlier this season, but you can't ignore the fact that Kerber had lost four in a row on the clay courts outdoors, even if she did win the title in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court.
Motivation is a concern when backing Kerber this week, but she showed enough in coming back from a set down to beat Cornelia Lister in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for her in any shape or form against a clay court specialist, but I think Kerber can battle through for a 46, 62, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: This is a big match for two players who have perhaps slipped further down the World Rankings than they would like to see. Bethanie Mattek-Sands is hoping to improve her own Ranking to ensure she can earn a direct entry into the US Open played next month, while Julia Goerges has to feel she is much better than her current Number 73 in the World Ranking.
I think Mattek-Sands was fortunate with the draw when meeting Kiki Bertens who reached the Final in a rain hit Gstaad last week. A lot of her matches were played in a short period of time at the end of the rain affected week which would have sapped physical strength as Bertens got through to the Final and I do think the American took advantage of that.
It is a big win and Mattek-Sands is capable of producing some big time tennis when she is in her best form. She will need all of that to beat Goerges in this Second Round match as the latter is the superior clay court player and can match the power that Mattek-Sands will bring to the court.
Goerges will again need to serve well and make sure she remains mentally focused when things are not going completely her way. Keeping unforced errors down and working Mattek-Sands around is important if she is to make it three wins in a row against the American, but I like Goerges' chances to do that.
The German did beat Mattek-Sands in straight sets earlier this season in Rome and I think she can match that with a 75, 64 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Two American players meet in the Second Round in Stanford in the final match of the day and it is Coco Vandeweghe who is a healthy favourite against Nicole Gibbs. I can't disagree with that even if Gibbs is in the midst of her best season on the Tour.
As well as Gibbs has played at times, her serve remains very vulnerable and that has seen her defeats come by wide margins. In her six defeats on the hard courts this season, Gibbs' opponents would have covered this number four times and Coco Vandeweghe has the kind of firepower that will cause her a few problems.
That will only be amplified if Vandeweghe is serving as well as she can and the pressure on Gibbs will come from the other side of the court and the scoreboard. It will be tough to ignore that on the faster surfaces where one break could be enough for someone like Vandeweghe to take the set and she can be a strong front runner as confidence builds.
My one concern for Vandeweghe has to be the poor run she had on the North American courts at this time last year and she can be a little loose when the break points come her way. However I think she will create enough chances to win this one 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals to be played on Friday.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the in-form players on the Tour is Steve Johnson who made a strong start to his hard court season with a convincing win over Adrian Mannarino. He should expect a much stronger challenge from Ryan Harrison, even if the latter is Number 158 in the World Rankings.
Harrison has really struggled for consistency since his breakout year on the Tour in 2012 and the majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days. However Harrison still has a pretty big serve and can play some strong stuff on the hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent despite what the World Ranking may indicate.
He has already won three matches here in Washington having come through the Qualifiers and Harrison certainly has an ability to steal sets off of his opponents on the hard courts even if he ultimately comes up short in the match. It has to be a concern in backing Steve Johnson who might be full of confidence, but who has a losing record on the hard courts this season.
Johnson did reach the Semi Final in Washington last season and will be looking to match that performance to make sure he keeps his Ranking high enough to be Seeded at his home Grand Slam next month. The higher Ranked American in this contest has certainly been serving very well and I think he can get the better of Harrison in this one although it is likely to be in two competitive sets as I look for Johnson to come through 76, 63.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: Most of the players left in the men's draw in Washington are Seeded players, but part of the reason we haven't seen a clean sweep is because of Daniel Evans. The British player was a deserving winner over an out of form Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round and he will be looking to back that up when he faces Jack Sock on Thursday.
A place in the Quarter Final is at stake and it would be a huge boost for Evans in terms of his World Ranking which was at a career high just last week. He is still inside the top 100 and Evans will be looking to keep that Ranking trending in the right direction, but the win over Dimitrov might make him a little over-rated in this one.
There is no doubting that Jack Sock has plenty of room for improvement including backing up his serve more effectively than he does and improving his return game. However the American does have some heavy groundstrokes, particularly the forehand wing, and Sock will be looking for a run that could potentially see him move inside the top 20 in the World Rankings.
Sock had a tough win over Lukas Lacko in the last Round and the next few weeks present him a real chance to put up some big Ranking points with nothing much to defend. He did reach the Quarter Final in Washington last season and Evans hasn't played too many matches at this level over the last few seasons. I respect how well he played to see off Dimitrov, but Sock should be a much more confident player and can win this one 76, 63.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: At Wimbledon, John Isner made it seven straight wins over Marcos Baghdatis and I think the American will have his chances to make it eight in a row on Thursday. His serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but the key to this one is that Baghdatis is likely to throw in a cheap service game or two which can be difficult to retrieve on the faster hard courts.
Their match at Wimbledon was close, but I do think Baghdatis is more comfortable on the grass than Isner, whereas the hard courts are much more to Isner's liking. Both players performed well to win their Second Round matches on Wednesday, but this is a step up in competition for both and the mental edge has to be given to Isner considering their previous head to head match ups.
When Baghdatis builds up some momentum he can be tough to stop, but there are plenty of early exits on the hard courts that the Cypriot has experienced over the last few seasons. Too many second serves gives players a chance to have a real swing against him and Baghdatis has to be mentally right at the races to stay with Isner in this one.
The Davis Cup loss to Marin Cilic was a big disappointment for Isner but he has an easier way to get over those mental blows with his serve being a huge weapon on the hard courts. He might need a tie-breaker to win the first set, but I think Isner will then have a few chances against the Baghdatis serve as tiredness and scoreboard pressure build up which will lead to a 76, 64 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: One of the most frustrating players on the Tour has to be Alexandr Dolgopolov who has all the talent, but rarely makes the right shot selection. He looks like a player that simply goes out on the court and will play his own way regardless of whether it is the right tactic for the day and Dolgopolov will take his chances whether he wins or loses.
I don't know if it matters to him so much if he doesn't win and so it can be hard to know what exactly you are going to see from the Dolgopolov racquet on any given day.
That is not the case with Sam Querrey who will look to dominate behind a big serve and heavy forehand wherever possible. The win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon has raised his stock, but it is important for Querrey to back that up over the next few weeks on what should be his favoured hard courts.
Querrey has had an inconsistent year on the hard courts with early losses in Indian Wells and Miami, but winning a title in Delray Beach. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks which will give him a chance to really improve his Number 29 position in the World Rankings and the American has won his last three matches against Dolgopolov including both matches last season.
I just believe Querrey won't be as erratic as Dolgopolov who had success at this stage of the Tour last year but who has been very inconsistent through 2016. It should be an interesting match while it lasts but I think Querrey can come through and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 25.53% Yield)
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