Tennis Picks 2023 (July 28th)

The Quarter Finals take centre stage on Friday at the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Hamburg event is already into the Semi Final Round.

Any selections from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals will be added to this thread on Friday, but the four Picks from the other events can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: It sounds like Alexander Zverev is going to deal with the latest allegations made against him very much in the same manner as he did the first and it has seemingly made little effect on his tennis.

He was beaten in the Quarter Final in Bastad last week, but that was against a quality player in Andrey Rublev and it is the kind of result that may have happened at any time. If there was an impact from the latest news headlines, that has not been backed up by Alexander Zverev's performances in Hamburg this week as he has produced two solid wins and the fans have not really been on his back.

This looks like another very winnable match up for him when taking on Frenchman Luca Van Assche, who was perhaps a little fortunate to come from a set behind to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round.

Luca Van Assche has proven to have a pretty effective return on the clay courts, but he is facing a big serving Alexander Zverev who has faced just three Break Points in his two wins in Hamburg. The second serve is where Van Assche has to expect to get some joy, but Alexander Zverev is getting in a high percentage of first serves and you have to believe that he will largely contain the threat from the other end of the court if Zverev can continue to make 70% plus of his first serves.

If he can do that, Alexander Zverev will certainly have a lot of faith in his own returning ability having won 43% of return points played on the clay courts this season when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those have come in eighteen matches, so far from a small sample, while the German has broken four times in both wins in this tournament.

There are plenty of positives for the 19 year old Van Assche to take, but he is still growing into his body and the serve is likely to be improved once he does so. He is only winning 58% of service points against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and Luca Van Assche has been broken in 29% of his service games played against those stronger players.

Alexander Zverev will feel his serving can be one that builds pressure on the scoreboard too and this is a match that the German can win and cover this handicap as long as he remains focused.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Arthur Fils: There have been criticisms of the kind of schedule that Casper Ruud is willing to play, but it was still a surprise to hear him speak about it in his press conference in Hamburg.

Some believe his World Ranking is not justified as he plays, and wins, a lot of the ATP 250 tournaments, but Ruud is more than a flat track bully. Any player that has reached two French Open Finals and a US Open Final deserves more respect, especially as Casper Ruud has been unfortunate to lose those three Grand Slam Finals to Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

He has not enjoyed his time too much in Hamburg this week and had criticisms of the court, while the indoor conditions might be something Ruud has to face again.

Two tough wins over Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin might have just hardened Casper Ruud and this should be a little more comfortable as a match up.

That is not being disrespectful to young Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is still learning at this level even if he won the title in Lyon before the French Open. A win over Francisco Cerundolo to take the title home is one that has to be given credit, but Arthur Fils is just 1-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and his serve has proven to be a vulnerable one in those matches.

He has played well this week to win his two matches, but Fils will know this is a significant increase in level of opponent and the suggestion is that his returning may not be up to the level that may be needed to stay with Casper Ruud.

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: These two met last week in Gstaad and the match ended prematurely when Roberto Carballes Baena had to withdraw midway through the second set.

He looks like he is better this week after winning his Second Round match while dropping four games, but Roberto Carballes Baena has had a slightly disappointing season on the clay courts, which are usually where he is considered a specialist.

Of course he is facing a former French Open Champion, but one who is not the same player he was at his best. Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find the consistency to get back towards the very top of the Tour and at 38 years old it is very difficult to imagine he will have enough of an Indian summer to at least have another strong Grand Slam run.

Improving his World Ranking would help, but that has been tough for Wawrinka who is just 27-22 over the last twelve months.

Two wins in Umag will have given Stan Wawrinka confidence and he could be tough to stop if he serves as well as he can- he is holding 83% of his service games played on the clay courts this season and Wawrinka has only dropped serve three times in his two wins here. He has broken nine times in those victories over Filip Misolic and Federico Coria and Stan Wawrinka should have success against this Carballes Baena serve.

I would not put too much stock into the match in Gstaad considering Roberto Carballes Baena had to pull out, but Stan Wawrinka should have the Break Points to win this match. That hasn't always mattered this month, but creating the chances should put Wawrinka in a position to win this match against the higher Ranked player who only won 58% of his service points against Taro Daniel in the Second Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.26 Units (32 Units Staked, - 19.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 26th)

The events being played this week have been affected by the rain and it has led to a number of matches in Umag and Lausanne that have to be played on Wednesday having originally been scheduled to be played on Tuesday.

Hamburg has also been a wet tournament, and there could be some more poor weather to come, although that is an event that has a court with a roof which is a bonus.

With the Second Round beginning and some First Round matches to be completed, Wednesday is going to be another busy day. The Tennis Picks for the day can be seen below and I am looking to push on from a winning day to try and put a strong week in the books.

Once again the main focus is on the event in Hamburg, but there are a few selections from the other events that are being played this week.

Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Strong clay court form post-Wimbledon has taken Sebastian Ofner into a career high World Ranking and his Seeding in the Umag draw meant direct entry into the Second Round.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in Bastad in the week after winning a title in Salzburg and so there has to be a confidence in his tennis right now. We did not always see that in his two tough wins last week, but this should be a favourable enough match up for Ofner on the red dirt of Umag.

Motivation may be the biggest question mark with a clay court tournament in Austria coming up next week, one that Sebastian Ofner will be targeting for a successful week. That may mean he is not ready to put in the fight he needs to really have a deep run in Umag, and Ofner is not going to be good enough to win matches without a full effort.

This potential lack of motivation is a concern for sure, but Sebastian Ofner has been given a decent draw against Alexei Popyrin who is not exactly known for his clay court pedigree. It is something of a surprise to see the Australian in Europe after Wimbledon rather than the hard courts of North America, and this is the first tournament Popyrin is playing after a disappointing grass court season as far as he is concerned.

After coming through Qualifiers, Alexei Popyrin did have solid runs at the clay court Masters events in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier this year so he cannot be written off. The serve can still be a big weapon for him, even on the slower clay courts, and that can build scoreboard pressure on opponents.

Alexei Popyrin does hold 85% of his service games that have been played on the red dirt, but that number drops a little bit when only considering matches against opponents who come in as higher Ranked players. He is 3-6 in those matches this season and Popyrin has really had issues on the return of serve, something that Sebastian Ofner has to look to exploit.

These two have split two previous meetings with Popyrin winning on the grass last year and Sebastian Ofner holding a hard court win from 2018. The clay courts should give the Austrian a bit more of an edge and he can do enough to win this match and cover this handicap mark.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Sebastian Baez: For a lot of players, a long week on the Tour can take something out of the legs and it can be hard to replicate the success of one tournament in the next one played.

However, Casper Ruud has shown he can handle the European summer after Wimbledon and is happy to head to three different clay court tournaments and expect himself to produce his best tennis in each of those.

Last week Ruud ended as Runner Up to Andrey Rublev in Bastad, but he has been given until Wednesday to begin his Hamburg efforts as he looks to win another title on the red dirt. In his career, nine of ten titles won have been in clay court events and Casper Ruud took the title home in Estoril earlier this year in an event where he beat Sebastian Baez on the way to the trophy.

That match up came in the Quarter Final, but Sebastian Baez has been struggling for form in recent weeks and an early loss in Bastad will not have helped the confidence of a player that has slipped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings. He was Number 30 back in April, which underlines the recent issues Sebastian Baez has had, although he is a solid clay courter who will need to be respected.

Unfortunately, Baez has struggled when facing the elite on the surface and has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the red dirt this season, including that straight sets loss to Casper Ruud in Estoril.

Half of the sixteen clay court matches won by Sebastian Baez this season came during the early Golden Swing in South America and his numbers have been a little weaker on serve and return since the clay court events in Europe have begun to be played.

Sebastian Baez can be dangerous on the clay courts and has taken a set from both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie on this surface this season, but Casper Ruud might be playing at a higher level than both of those players on the clay courts.

He might need a bit of time to get rolling, but Ruud should be able to create the majority of Break Points and in more return games than the other way around and he can win this match with a bit of comfort on the scoreboard.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: There haven't been too many 16 year old tennis players making the kind of impression Mirra Andreeva is doing on the Tour and the young player can make her way through to the Quarter Final in Luasanne.

This is a big spread for someone so young to cover, but Mirra Andreeva is making short work of opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts. This season she has a 20-1 record against such opponents on this surface, while Andreeva has an unbelievable 34-3 mark against players outside of the top 100 on the clay in her career.

From any player that would be impressive, but for a recently turned 16 year old, it just underlines the potential that so many believe Andreeva is destined to fulfil.

Sixteen of her twenty wins against players outside the top 50 on the clay would have seen Mirra Andreeva cover this handicap mark set and it is going to be very difficult for Anna Bondar to stay with her barring having a huge serving day.

Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 50, but injury and loss of form has seen her fall out of the top 100.

Anna Bondar has beaten Karolina Pliskova on the clay this season, but she has a 2-5 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2023. She was well beaten last week by another young Russian player, Elina Avanesyan, and it feels like a match where Bondar is going to be under immense pressure in the majority of service games played.

The Mirra Andreeva serve is still a work in progress, which is not a surprise considering her age, but the World Number 64 looks after that shot effectively enough to believe she produces another strong win here in Switzerland before yet another jump in her career best World Ranking mark.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Arnaldi - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 25th)

A quiet start to the week saw a couple of Picks split with a win and loss apiece, while Mirra Andreeva had a change in opponent.

That did not stop the young player from crushing Dayana Yastremska and Andreeva continues to look like a potential superstar in the making. Her serve will only improve as she gets older, while the return already makes her very dangerous and the overall tennis being produced is very impressive from a 16 year old.

A much busier day is in store on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played in the five tournament venues hosting tournaments.

My main focus early in the week is the joint ATP and WTA tournament being played in Hamburg, although there is also a selection from the ATP Umag event taking place on the clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: Any player coming through the Qualifiers has to be considered dangerous early on in a tournament, even for the top Seeds in the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti has to appreciate the fact that Elias Ymer has won two matches here in straight sets and he has clearly put the defeat to Leo Borg last week in Bastad behind him. Circumstances were not ideal with brother Mikael announcing he had been given an eighteen month suspension on the morning of the Elias Ymer match with Borg, but that was a painful loss all the same against someone Ymer should be beating.

He has looked strong in the Qualifiers, but Elias Ymer will know there is a considerable gap to bridge to the World Number 18 who lost a couple of places after his Semi Final defeat in Bastad last week. The Italian played well in his first two matches, but Musetti still has a tendency to leave players hanging around within matches, while has not always played his best tennis against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

This season Lorenzo Musetti only holds a 3-4 record in those matches on the clay courts, which is a massive surprise and perhaps suggests he does not focus as he should do. Three of those four losses have been against players who were lowly Ranked earlier in the year, but who are well inside the top 100 now and Musetti was able to win two matches as expected last week before he fell to Casper Ruud in the Semi Final.

His return should be effective against the Elias Ymer serve, which has given up plenty of Break Points in the few matches he has had against top 100 Ranked opponents. The Swede does have a couple of wins on the clay courts in those matches, but was well beaten by Casper Ruud in the First Round of the French Open and Elias Ymer is expected to be put under pressure from the Musetti serve.

Elias Ymer can play well enough to create Break Points of his own, but this should be a match that is played on the Lorenzo Musetti racquet and the Italian can break down the Qualifier and pull away for a strong win.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Pedro Cachin: In general, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has beaten opponents that he would have expected to on the clay courts this season, but he did suffer a disappointing exit in Bastad last week.

The defeat has dropped his mark to 7-2 on the clay against opponents Ranked outside the top 20, although the Spaniard has the chance to make up for that when playing in the First Round in Hamburg.

Overall it has been a tough twelve months for Davidovich Fokina who has lost more matches than he has won, despite some quality performances. Stretching the wins together has been an issue and the Spaniard is close to slipping out of the top 40 in the World Rankings so this is an important tournament for him after reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg twelve months ago.

His return has not been an issue on the red dirt, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has not looked after his serve as well as he would have liked, although the numbers have been stronger when facing those outside of the elite on the Tour. Last week the serve kept Davidovich Fokina under pressure having to facing eight Break Points and he will need to be better when taking on a player who will be feeling really good after a very successful week.

Pedro Cachin is at a new career high World Ranking after winning the title in Gstaad on Sunday, the first ATP Tour title he has won his career.

He has played some solid tennis this season, but the emotion of Sunday could leave Pedro Cachin short both mentally and physically when he heads to the court just a couple of days later. The serve was a big weapon for him and Cachin was good for the Tennis Picks with wins in the Semi Final and Final, but it has to be noted that he has still to show more when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.

Last week he beat Roberto Bautista Agut to move to 3-5 in those matches in 2023, but Pedro Cachin was perhaps a little fortunate to win that tight match. His numbers have been dented in those tougher matches, although I would certainly give him more of a chance in this one if Cachin had not just played a long week with an emotional outcome.

A strong start may see him push through, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that may be in play and he can win and cover.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex Molcan: For the third time this season, Alexander Zverev and Alex Molcan are meeting in a clay court match on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev won very comfortably in Paris at the French Open, but he was made to work much harder last week in Bastad and needed all three sets to be played before earning a passage into the Second Round.

Some of that was down to wastefulness on Break Points with Zverev winning just four out of fifteen attempts compared with Alex Molcan's three conversions from six chances. He created a lot of chances to break in Paris too, but Alexander Zverev was much more ruthless on that day, while he also looked after the second serve a lot more effectively too.

Allegations from his personal life cannot be helping Alexander Zverev, but he has played on the Tour with those hovering over this head before and it was not the reason he was outplayed by Andrey Rublev in Bastad. Being back in front of home supporters should at least give Zverev more motivation having reached the Semi Final the last time he played in Hamburg and this is a match where he is expected to have plenty more Break Points.

Alex Molcan is struggling for form, but might have taken some confidence in winning a set against Alexander Zverev last week. He would have hoped for a kinder draw in Hamburg than having to face Zverev again, especially as Molcan has lost three matches in a row on the clay courts and having had a difficult time behind his serve.

He has played the big points well enough to avoid dropping serve at times, but this leads to pressure on his overall tennis and Molcan has been having his struggles on the court.

Maybe he can serve well enough to save another eleven Break Points in this match, but Alexander Zverev should be motivated to have a strong week in Hamburg and he can win this one with the Breaks needed to cover.

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Last year Francisco Cerundolo won the title in Bastad and reached the Semi Final in Hamburg in consecutive weeks on the clay courts, but his defence of the Bastad title ended in the Semi Final on Saturday.

The performance in the tournament was strong and Cerundolo was very unlucky to lose to Andrey Rublev, the eventual winner, so there is little doubt that this is going to be a confident player arriving in Hamburg.

He is facing one of the home players in the draw in Yannick Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo holds three wins over this opponent on the clay courts since February 2022. One of those came in straight sets at the French Open a couple of months ago and Francisco Cerundolo does look like he will enjoy the match up that Hanfmann brings to him.

In their two matches this year, Francisco Cerundolo has created thirty-three Break Point chances compared with eighteen for Yannick Hanfmann. The favourite will want to win a high percentage of the first serves that go in, but Francisco Cerundolo also has to be confident he can win the rallies that develop from second serves and he can make it four in a row against this opponent.

Yannick Hanfmann has enjoyed a solid year on the clay courts which has helped drag his World Ranking back up to Number 45, which is a career high mark. However, his service numbers have declined significantly when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this year and you have to believe that Francisco Cerundolo has the returning ability to keep the home player under pressure.

Nothing comes easy against Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo has all of the tools in his tennis to keep his run of wins going against the German player.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mayar Sherif - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 18th)

A lot of the biggest names on the ATP and WTA Tours will have needed a break after Wimbledon and I have to admit I needed a couple of days to recharge from the third Grand Slam of the season too. I might not have needed any physical effort to enjoy the tennis over the first two weeks of the month, but it did take a mental effort to research the matches.

Ultimately I was rewarded with a strong tournament adding plenty of units to the 2019 season totals and it was also the third profitable Grand Slam of the year. That's a positive, but I always felt it was going to need a couple of days off from looking through matches before I was ready to try and add to the profits with a new game in a new week.

This week we have stops in Bucharest and Lausanne on the WTA Tour and Bastad, Newport and Umag on the ATP Tour. The First Round of all of those tournaments have been completed, but the Quarter Final line up has not been decided in all but Newport.

It might not be the week with the deepest level of quality at the events being played, but all those involved will be looking for key Ranking points in the last clay court or grass court events being played on the main Tour. At the end of this month the run to the US Open will begin with hard court events leading into the two big Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati which is when the very biggest of names will be back in action.


Below you will see the plays I have from Thursday with the focus being the two clay court events being played on the ATP Tour. I have also updated the season totals with the Wimbledon numbers in the books.


MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Facundo Bagnis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 112.21 Units (1337 Units Staked, + 8.39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 21st)

I am spending the day away from the computer as I’ve booked tickets for an event which takes place this afternoon, but I did manage to research the Tennis Picks for Saturday’s Semi Finals.

It has proven to be a difficult week for the Picks after a poor Friday with the Quarter Final matches letting me down.

However I am going back to the well with one player who did secure a win for me on Friday and who is on the brink of a second clay court title on the main Tour in 2018. Marco Cecchinato is still perhaps a little overrated thanks to a great run at the French Open, but he has been playing well enough to win his Semi Final at the kind of level this tournament in Unag is operating at.

This has not been a deep field and I do like Cecchinato today as my sole pick from the Semi Final matches to be played.

I am having to write this out on a mobile today so unfortunately the thread has a different feel to normal but I will be back to the usual feel tomorrow. If I’m back before this match begins I will update the weekly totals too.


MY PICK: Marco Cecchinato - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 20th)

Friday is regularly Quarter Final day on the Tennis Tour from week to week and this Friday is no different with all of the last eight matches in Bucharest, Gstaad, Bastad and Umag all set to be played.

Newport is a little different as they split their Quarter Finals across Thursday and Friday so the two remaining Quarter Final matches are set to go on Friday.


It has been a tough couple of days for the Tennis Picks with a couple of poor bits of fortune costing me the chance to have a couple of winning days.

On Friday I will add any Picks from the late matches in Umag that have yet to have their markets put together, but the majority of the Tennis Picks are below.


Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: The most impressive performance that Simone Bolelli would have produced for the majority of fans to see would have been his close encounter with Rafael Nadal at the French Open. However the Italian has been going about his work to improve the World Ranking and a strong run to the Quarter Final in Bastad after coming through the Qualifiers will be helping his improvement.

This has been part of a strong season on the clay courts for the veteran Italian who has been up and down throughout his career. The numbers have shown how well he has played at the lower level and Bolelli is not faced with an opponent who is used to playing at the main ATP level himself.

Henri Laaksonen has also come through the Qualifiers, but he was the beneficiary of a Lucky Loser spot to take his place in the main draw. He actually beat Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round after losing to the same player in the Qualifiers, and Laaksonen was much more impressive in the way he beat Matteo Berrettini in the Second Round.

Unlike Bolelli, Laaksonen's general numbers have not been that strong over the course of 2018 when it comes to the clay courts. There has been a decline across both serving and returning numbers compared with 2016 and 2017 and his 12-12 record has been aided by winning a couple of matches here in Bastad.

Bolelli has been much stronger as underlined by his 22-7 mark on the clay courts and the Italian has been holding serve at 85% which will give him a good platform to build on in this match against an opponent who has struggled with the return of serve. Add in the fact that Bolelli has a decent break percentage and I think he will break down Laaksonen and back up a very good win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Second Round.

In his 22 wins, 18 have seen Bolelli cover this number and I think he will better an opponent who has not had the same level of success on the Challenger Tour as Bolelli has had. I will back the Italian to find a way to earn the cover in this one and move through to a main Tour Semi Final which will offer a huge boost to the World Ranking.


Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: The feeling was that Marco Cecchinato would be a touch overrated in matches on the clay courts during this mini-European swing after layers would factor in the run to the French Open Semi Final. In saying that I am surprised that Cecchinato is not a stronger favourite to beat Laslo Djere in this Umag Quarter Final and I do like the Italian to work his way into another Semi Final on this surface.

Earlier this season Cecchinato won the title in Budapest which is the first real success he has had on the main Tour. Nothing he had done between that title win and the beginning of the French Open would have prepared us to see the run Cecchinato managed in Paris, but he is unsurprisingly very comfortable on the clay.

The numbers Cecchinato has produced have shown that some of his successes have had more to do with his performance than simple good fortune, but he can't expect to walk through Djere who has had a couple of solid wins behind him already this week.

Djere beating Pablo Cuevas shows this is a player ready to take the next step in his career and he has very similar clay court numbers to Cecchinato, albeit the majority of his matches coming at the lower level than the main ATP Tour. Since Roland Garros Djere has reached the Final of one Challenger event on the clay and won the title at another and that kind of confidence can be huge for a player who then moves onto a higher level of opponent.

That difference of level of opponent has to be considered, but I think that the layers have made this a tough match to separate the players because of how well Djere has been playing over the last month. Djere has been returning really well in his first couple of matches in Umag and he has brought up a lot of break points thanks to a strong level shown which makes him dangerous.

However I think Cecchinato has shown heart to come through a difficult Second round match and his belief has to be at peak level. The Italian has been that little bit stronger all around when he has played opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts in 2018 and I think he will edge out Djere here.


Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 games v Guido Pella: The clay courts have always been the favoured surface for Dusan Lajovic, but he has made slight improvements in his numbers in 2018 to produce more wins on the main Tour than previous years.

With a couple more wins he could be fast approaching his best ever World Ranking and Lajovic comes into this Quarter Final as the favourite to beat Guido Pella.

No one will be underestimating how good Pella can be on the clay courts considering this is a surface on which he would have been very used to playing all his life. His own numbers have been decent, but Pella has already had to come through two tough matches so far in Umag and that could mean he is vulnerable to Lajovic in the form he is in.

Both players have served well and Pella only has a slight edge when it comes to the return of serve, but I think the Lajovic serve will ensure that he is having to face off not as many break points as the Argentinian will have to.

I won't be at all surprised if this is a close match with another deciding set needed having seen both win in three sets in the Second Round. That is where Lajovic's slightly less tennis being played this week could mean he has more to offer and I will look to back him to get the better of Pella in this Quarter Final.


Evgeny Donskoy v Marco Trungelliti: Marco Trungelliti will be most known to tennis fans for the journey he made from Barcelona to Paris to take up a Lucky Loser spot in the French Open draw back in May. With his mother and grandmother crammed either side of his tennis racquets, Trungelliti took advantage of social media to show the fans a little insight into his life.

Travelling on the road is the life of a tennis player but especially the case for someone like Trungelliti who is making a tough living on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit, although he has shown in Umag that he should be respected on the clay courts which is his favoured surface.

Coming through a couple of Qualifiers and then winning a couple of main draw matches will help with the Ranking and he is favoured to reach the Semi Final here.

However I think Evgeny Donskoy could be a little underrated to upset the Argentinian having shown good form of his own. Donskoy has arguably the most impressive of the wins this week compared with Trungelliti and that can only aid the confidence of a player who has been serving very well on the clay courts in 2018.

I am anticipating a close match and I would not be surprised if we need a decider as both players had to battle through one in their last match. The serving prowess of Donskoy may give him enough of an edge to upset Trungelliti though and I am backing the Russian to get past his opponent and make the Semi Final in Umag.

MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-8, + 0.12 Units (34 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 19th)

The tournaments continue in the five destinations this week and we are already getting down to the final few days of the events which have come hot on the heels of the end of the third Grand Slam of the season.

While the majority of those players expecting to challenge at the US Open will be resting up and recharging the batteries, these weeks are very important to those players down the World Rankings with the open looking draws giving them a chance to pick up vital Ranking points.

Like Wednesday, I will add those Tennis Picks from the ATP Newport event on Thursday, but the way the Second Round is split in two at the majority of events means the markets are available for the other four tournaments and the matches scheduled to be played on Thursday.

This has been a tough week so I've not had a lot of time. While I have a full analysis of one of the matches, I am adding the other Tennis Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Patty Schnyder: Once upon a time Patty Schnyder was a top ten Ranked player on the WTA Tour but she decided to retire in 2011 and didn't return to the Tour until 2015. Her comeback has unsurprisingly not reached the kind of levels that Kim Clijsters did simply because Schnyder was already well into her mid 30s when she returned to the Tour.

The love for the game has kept Schnyder going when others may have decided it was not worth battling on the ITF Tour and the lower level events. Wins at that level has helped Schnyder get back into the top 200 of the World Rankings and she is still trending in a positive direction, although failures to Qualify for the Grand Slam events at the Australian Open and Wimbledon show Schnyder is still not quite up to the level she would like.

This is only the seventh match Schnyder will have played on the main Tour on the clay courts since returning from retirement and a player like Sam Stosur should be too good for her.

Stosur is another veteran of the Tour these days and her best days are clearly behind her, but she remains very competitive on the clay courts. The Australian dominated another older player in Francesca Schiavone in the First Round and her numbers have to be put into context compared with Schnyder's simply because of the differing levels they have been operating at.

While only holding an 8-6 record on the clay courts in 2018, there haven't been too many bad losses for Stosur as she continues to see off those opponents she would expect to beat. There has been a decline in the return numbers which will be of concern when you think of the handicap number in this one, but Stosur will put Schnyder under pressure thanks to a serve that remains very good.

It won't always be easy for Stosur, but I do think she can win this match and she can cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.48 Units (24 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 18th)

While we have a couple of tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and the ATP Bastad event which have regular start times, the ATP events in Umag and Newport have late starts which means the markets are slower at being released.

For now I am going to add my sole Pick from Bastad and I will add any from the other couple of ATP tournaments to this thread in a few hours from now.


The first couple of days after Wimbledon have been pretty positive for the Tennis Picks made and I am looking to keep the positive momentum going.

There are a lot of players who are more likely to be seen on the Challenger Tour who have entered the main Tour events this week so they can be a little tougher to read with the step up, but so far it has been a good week and I want that to continue as we move towards the middle of the tournaments.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: I'll be the first to admit that Fernando Verdasco is a player on the wane and one who can be difficult to trust considering some of the rumours that have swirled around his matches in recent years.

He had to come through in three sets in the First Round but Verdasco has continued his love affair with this tournament in Bastad.

I would expect Verdasco to be too good for Pedro Sousa who spends 99% of his time at the Challenger level and who hasn't exactly produced hugely impressive numbers in those matches. All respect to Sousa for coming through the First Round in the main draw here, but beating Radu Albot is a completely different test to trying to do the same to Verdasco in the Second Round.

I have little doubt that Verdasco is on the wane in his career, but his numbers on the clay courts have remained pretty strong in 2018. The results have not necessarily followed and Verdasco now throws in a really poor set compared with a couple of years ago when the Spaniard might have one or two poor games per match.

That is a concern when backing him to cover such a big number as this one, but I think Verdasco enjoys playing in Bastad and he is still significantly better than Sousa. The latter may have some good moments, but I expect Verdasco to wear him down with the superior tennis and I will back him to cover in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might be strange to see Albert Ramos-Vinolas down as the underdog in this Second Round match despite the fact he is the Seeded player who received a bye in the First Round. Add in the fact that this match is played on the favoured surface of the Spaniard and you can make a case for Ramos-Vinolas as the underdog.

However 2018 has been a difficult season for Ramos-Vinolas even on the clay courts and he has under performed to this point.

Now he faces a player in Dusan Lajovic who has been in very good form over the last couple of months and who has been playing the superior tennis of the two on this surface. There are still areas where Lajovic can look to improve, but his numbers on the clay courts have been strong enough to suggest he can get the better of Ramos-Vinolas especially with a solid win already under his belt.

I can see both players having their chances to break serve here, but Lajovic has been a little more productive when it comes to taking those opportunities.

I am expecting that to happen here and Lajovic is able to beat Ramos-Vinolas for the first time on clay and also cover the number on his way through to the Quarter Final in Umag on Friday.


Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It has recently been announced by Gilles Muller that he is planning to hang up his racquet at the end of the 2018 season. That may not be a big surprise when you see the slide down the World Rankings and the veteran is clearly not feeling he can play his best tennis nor having the desire to battle through Qualifiers to play in the big tournaments in the months ahead.

The final event he will play on grass comes here in Newport and Muller had a solid win in the First Round against Marcos Baghdatis which will give him some encouragement that he can have a strong week here.

He faces another veteran in Marcel Granollers, but the Spaniard is intent on fighting his way back up the World Rankings. Injuries and a loss of form have seen Granollers drop out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, and the majority of his 2018 has been on the Challenger Tour.

That isn't always a bad idea to step back and produce some wins and rebuild flagging confidence and Granollers has done that for the most part in 2018.

However you would expect Muller to be the favourite on the grass courts and he served well enough in the First Round to edge out Granollers. The return game is always a concern for Muller as is his poor season so far, but I think his win over Baghdatis could propel him to a strong week on the Tour and I like him to beat the Spaniard and cover the number in his Second Round win.


Matthew Ebden - 4.5 games v Tim Smyczek: There may be some regrets from Matthew Ebden that he was not able to go a little deeper into the Wimbledon draw after a very strong month on the grass courts. At least he gets the chance to finish his grass campaign on a high as Ebden bids to go one better than 2017 when he was beaten in the Newport Final.

This time Ebden is coming into the tournament in much better confidence after the strong results on the grass and the numbers have backed up the improved results.

I expect he will have too much for Tim Smyczek who battled through the First Round in a close match against Bjorn Fratangelo which could have easily gone the other way. Unlike Ebden, Smyczek's serve has shown to be pretty vulnerable on the grass courts and I expect the Australian to take advantage of that in this Second Round match.

This is not the first time they have played on the grass in 2018 after Ebden dismissed the challenge of Smyczek comfortably in Hertogenbosch last month. On that occasion Ebden lost just five games and I think he is going to be good enough to cover a big number in this Second Round clash too.

Smyczek's decision to take in a hard court Challenger event between this tournament and Wimbledon might not be ideal too even though he won in the First Round. I expect Ebden will be able to dominate his own service games for the most part and eventually expose the vulnerabilities of the Smyczek serve in a strong win.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: If Matthew Ebden was disappointed in his Wimbledon campaign you have to wonder what Mischa Zverev was feeling having been beaten in the First Round. That came just days after winning the title in Eastbourne and I have to factor in the expectation that Zverev could have been a little tired, although that doesn't give him an easy excuse for the poor First Round defeat.

This week there are no such fatigue issues and Zverev's game is tailor-made for the grass courts.

He will expect his serve to dominate Vasek Pospisil, who is a limited returner to say the least, but the key to this match is how well the German can begin to pick the big Pospisil serve.

The Canadian has been able to rattle through enough service games on the grass courts to keep him from ever being hammered on the scoreboard, while Pospisil is just as comfortable as Zverev getting up to the net and putting away volleys. Both players will be keen to get up to the net and put the pressure on their opponent to hit multiple passing shots to win the match, but I do edge towards Zverev being able to do that a little more than Pospisil.

Zverev has a few more effective returns than Pospisil and my bigger concern is that this is his first match on these grass courts having received a bye in the First Round. The first set could be very competitive with that in mind, but by the second I would expect Zverev to begin to get a read on the Pospisil serve and make enough returns to force a break or two.

That may be enough to cover the number in this Second Round match and I will back Zverev to earn the win and move through to the Quarter Final later this week.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 16th)

And just like that the World Cup and Wimbledon come to an end on the same day and sports fans must be feeling the void.

However the Tennis Tour doesn't stop until November and that means on Monday five new tournaments get underway across Europe and North America.

Clay events in Bastad and Umag are available for the ATP players, while there are a couple of clay court events in Bucharest and Gstaad for the WTA players. We also have the official end of the grass court season in Newport.

The next couple of weeks are a good time for the clay court players out there, but for many others the start of the hard court season is fast approaching as the build towards the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open gets going. At the end of July we will have events in California, Atlanta and Washington before we get into the two back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati.

The men's US Open looks like it will be a lot of fun now Novak Djokovic has joined Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the defending Champion, as a Slam holder in 2018. And the women's tournament doesn't look any less exciting although I imagine Serena Williams will be going in as the favourite at Flushing Meadows.


Wimbledon wasn't a great tournament for the Tennis Picks, but adding more positive numbers to the season can't be complained about and I am now hoping to keep the momentum going.

This week may be a little more difficult to find consistent picks with the majority of the big names out of action, but on this Monday I do have a couple of Tennis Picks.

However I haven't had the time to write out a full analysis of the matches and instead you can read them in the 'MY PICKS' section.


MY PICKS: Guido Pella - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Smyczek @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 33.36 Units (1165 Units Staked, + 2.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 22nd)

The five tournaments being played this week have moved into the Semi Final Round and it has been an inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks.

It can still be concluded as a winning week though, and that is the most important factor, as I try and get 2017 turned around after a miserable time between February and April.

The build up to the next Grand Slam at the US Open will begin next week with the first hard court event in North America being played in Atalanta, and I am looking for a strong six weeks to lead into the US Open and build some real momentum.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: It is David Ferrer who has the lead in the head to head between these players, but this is the first time Ferrer will play Fernando Verdasco since May 2015. In that time there is no doubt that Ferrer has declined as a player while Verdasco is perhaps a little more steady with his play these days.

You can't completely ignore the head to head because Ferrer may feel he still owns the mental advantage between himself and Verdasco. That can be a tough obstacle for players to overcome, but Verdasco has beaten him seven times in the past so wins over Ferrer won't feel so alien to him to see Verdasco struggle to cope.

There definitely seems to be a real edge in the numbers Verdasco is producing compared with Ferrer who is struggling to hold serve as effectively. His return numbers used to be a strength for Ferrer, but he has had his difficulties when playing the better players on the Tour and I think the Verdasco serve has certainly been offering up the chance for Verdasco to dictate the points.

The Verdasco return has been a key part of his game in 2017 and I do think he can put Ferrer under pressure in this Semi Final. The latter Spaniard had a long match in his Quarter Final too and these factors can come together in what could be a surprisingly comfortable win for Verdasco.

I expect Verdasco to have the better of the break point chances and he can win this one 6-4, 6-4.


Added one pick from Umag below. Am out for the day so can't do a full breakdown of the pick.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 @BetFred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.18 Units (26 Units Staked, + 4.54% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 19th)

There does feel like there is a distinct lack of quality out on the Tour this week which isn't a surprise days after Wimbledon came to a close. While some decent players are in action, the bigger matches are unlikely to be seen until the end of the week when those players are matched up against one another.

The Second Round matches might be better than we saw earlier in the week, but there are still enough mismatches to have some very short priced favourites on Wednesday when the first half of those Second Round matches are played at the five main Tour events.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I don't think I will ever forget the way the match went the last time Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Renzo Olivo met on the Tour. That came earlier in 2017 and Schwartzman somehow failed to cover this number of games despite producing 21 break points compared with just the 9 for Olivo, but the higher Ranked Argentinian could not find the breaks easy to come by.

That does mean Schwartzman has created 37 break points in the last two matches between these players, but his conversion rate has not been anything to write home about. That is a concern because maybe Olivo has some mental strength which enables him to get out of tough spots, but I am more encouraged by Schwartzman's return numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50.

Those numbers on the clay suggest Schwartzman won't be as generous at letting his break points slip away, while his service numbers have also been more productive. Of course this is a vulnerable serve, but Olivo has struggled when playing the top players on the clay as his recent 1-5 record against top 50 players highlights.

Olivo may also have the edge of being over in Bastad over the last two weeks and so accustomed to the conditions, but I think it is Schwartzman who will have the majority of the play.

I do expect breaks of serve for both players, but Schwartzman has the numbers which point to a 7-5, 6-3 kind of win for him in this one.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: A knee injury ruled Pablo Cuevas out of Wimbledon the year after he had reached the Final in Nottingham on the grass. The absence from the Tour with an issue that has blighted him before is an obvious concern, but I also know that some players have previously skipped the grass in order to keep their knees from wearing down, particularly Rafael Nadal.

That is the biggest question mark about this match which should be one that Cuevas is very comfortable in. While he is one of the better clay court players on the Tour, Cuevas faces Henri Laaksonen who is still finding his feet at the highest level of the Tour.

There have been six occasions Laaksonen has played a top 50 Ranked player on the clay and he has lost all six of those matches. He was narrowly beaten by Andreas Seppi in a Davis Cup tie, but the other five losses have come in one sided fashion and his struggles on the return are likely to be a big issue here.

Cuevas has loved playing those further down the World Rankings where he is able to generate plenty of success on the return of serve. That could be a big issue for Laaksonen in this one if Cuevas is feeling good and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to put his opponent under pressure.

The biggest question remains the Cuevas health, but if he feels ready to go in this one, I think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: Jiri Vesely got it done when picking him in the First Round and I do think he can cover this number against Radu Albot too.

The numbers against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay continue to impress from Vesely who has improved to 7-1 in that spot in 2017 to add to the 9-1 record he had in 2016. The serve becomes a big weapon for Vesely at this level, but the key is the way he has been able to get his teeth into the return games which was highlighted in his impressive First Round win over Norbert Gombos.

I will be looking for that dominance to show up at some point in this match too against Radu Albot who is coming off a decent grass court showing. However he is 0-4 when facing top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts and Albot's issues begin with what is a vulnerable serve, one that I would expect Vesely to exploit in this Second Round match.

He hasn't returned well enough against the top players, while Albot's overall return numbers on the clay makes it difficult to believe he will be capable of sticking with his opponent in this match.

I would expect Vesely to be in a position to break serve three or four times in this match and a decent day behind serve should see him come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0 Units (8 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 18th)

There were quite a few matches scheduled for Monday at the five tournaments being played this week, but I didn't really find anything but the one angle with the Carla Suarez Navarro pick.

Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.

On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.

The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.

The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.

That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.

These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.

Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.

However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.

That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.

Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.

The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.

The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.

Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.

As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.


Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.

Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.

The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.

The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.

It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 24th)

The tennis Tour will be moving on to Canada this week, but first we have to complete the tournaments that have been played over the last seven days. Kitzbuhel came to a close on Saturday, but the other six tournaments will have their Finals played on Sunday and so it will still be a busy day, perhaps busier than a usual Sunday.

After a really poor start to this week, things have turned around over the last few days and I am hoping another strong day will help put a third successful week in a row in the books. It is a slow grind turning around the season, but I am happy to take off the negative piece by piece in what has been a tough 2016 so far to follow a poor ending to 2015 which knocked that season down.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: This has been an important week for Robin Haase as he looks to prevent a slip outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but for now he can concentrate on simply winning another title on the clay. He is a significant underdog against Feliciano Lopez, which has surprised me, and I am happy taking the games with the Dutchman in this one.

It has been a good week for Lopez too who can potentially move back into the top 20 of the World Rankings, although wins over Jan Mertl, Elias Ymer and Dustin Brown is not the most taxing way through to a Final. The clay courts have not really suited Lopez through his career with the way he approaches the game, but Lopez has recorded the most wins in a season on the surface since 2011.

I do think Haase will present the toughest test for Lopez through this week and it can't be ignored that the former has won all three of their previous matches on the clay. Each time Haase has been able to come back from a set down to win the match and he has been serving well enough this week to give Lopez enough issues through this Final.

I have a gut feeling that Haase might actually win the title here, but this could also be an important amount of games for him to be getting in a losing effort. If both players can take a set in this one, Haase can use his big serve to at least keep this very competitive and I will take the games.


Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: This is the first career meeting between Fabio Fognini and Andrej Martin and it might be considered a surprise Final in Umag considering some of the other players in the draw. Fognini is capable of producing really strong form on the clay so his appearance is less of an upset, but Martin has been mainly playing on the Challenger circuit and has some impressive wins under the belt this week.

Perhaps it should not be as much of a surprise as I think it is as Martin did reach the Third Round at the French Open, but some of his losses on the Challenger circuit since then would not have had many rushing him to reach an ATP level Final.

This is going to be a real test for Martin as Fognini looks to be in really good form in Umag. He has looked focused and has been returning well and I think the Italian is going to be a little too good on the day as long as he can maintain his focus.

We can't underestimate how easy it is for Fognini to drop his focus, but I will back the Italian to win his fourth career title and first since 2014 with an impressive 63, 64 victory.


Lauren Davis + 2.5 games v Yanina Wickmayer: Looking at a head to head between players doesn't really give you the full tale of the tape when researching matches. Sometimes a player is performing on a better surface for themselves, while other times the physical effort used in matches also has to be a factor as well as recent form.

Match ups are still important though and it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Lauren Davis has won all three previous matches against Yanina Wickmayer including their two matches in 2016. It has not been a good season for the American overall, but a run to the Final in Washington will have given Davis a chance of getting back into the top 100 of the World Rankings as she moves into what is likely her best time of the season.

Davis doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks and she has the game that can extract mistakes from the Wickmayer game. The Belgian does have the power to hammer the Davis serve, although my one issue would be whether she can mentally keep going for the lines as she has been this week.

I can see both players having their opportunities in this one with Wickmayer having the power and Davis the defensive strength which should make it a fascinating match. The mental edge has to be given to Davis considering she has beaten Wickmayer twice already in 2016 and she can make use of the games she is being given after building up some momentum through the week in Washington.

If Wickmayer is firmly on her game, she might be tough to stop, but I will look for the lower Ranked player to keep it tight through to the end even if she doesn't quite have enough to win the title.

MY PICKS: Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lauren Davis + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 22-15, + 8.08 Units (74 Units Staked, + 10.92% Yield)