Tennis Picks 2023 (July 18th)

No one will ever say the 'Big Three' era of men's tennis has been bad for the sport, but there comes a time when the future has to arrive if a sport is going to continue to thrive.

Roger Federer has officially retired and it sounds like Rafael Nadal might try and get healthy for one more full year on the Tour in 2024 having not played since his Second Round upset loss at the Australian Open back in January. And at 36 years old, Novak Djokovic is certainly reaching the latter part of his career, which means someone had to come through and fill in.

The dominance of the Big Three has hurt a couple of generations of players, but men's tennis might finally be ready to see a new era of stars come through and win multiple Grand Slam titles.

Carlos Alcaraz will be leading the way as the current holder of the US Open title and now the Wimbledon Champion and he is one of a handful of multiple Slam Winners now operating on the Tour. The likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have had their Grand Slam moments and could have more than the one US Open that each has won, but Carlos Alcaraz looks the player that will take tennis forward with the likes of Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner now having someone to chase.

The Spaniard will likely go into the US Open as the favourite to defend the title he won there last year, but Novak Djokovic will know he was one or two points from winning the Wimbledon title himself and the Serb is going to be massively motivated by what happened on Sunday. This could mean we have a couple of years of a really good rivalry between the King and the Prince of men's tennis and hopefully the bar has been raised for some of the younger players who have the capabilities of bridging the gap.

Novak Djokovic has not won the US Open since 2018, but he has not had a lot of luck in New York in recent years and he will be doing all he can to change that. Last year he was not even allowed to travel to the tournament, but in 2020 it was a Default that proved costly in the Fourth Round, while the loss to Daniil Medvedev in 2021 saw Djokovic run out of steam having won the first three Grand Slams of the season and having a five set Semi Final win before losing the Final.

The final Grand Slam of the season cannot come around quickly enough and Novak Djokovic is still the favourite to finish with the Number 1 World Ranking at the end of the season. Carlos Alcaraz winning Wimbledon is great news for tennis fans because we are going to see Djokovic find a renewed motivation to keep himself on the throne as the King and this can only be good news for those watching on.

Sports are all about having the next generation come in and move things forward and Carlos Alcaraz is looking the player to get behind to take things on from the Big Three era.

Women's tennis is looking to Iga Swiatek to do that for their side of the sport, but it is a touch disappointing that the two perceived main rivals to the Pole were not able to win the title at Wimbledon. It means Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina both only have one previous Grand Slam victory and more is needed from both of them to really help build a genuine rivalry at the top of the WTA Tour.

Iga Swiatek has won four Grand Slam titles, but has never really enjoyed playing at Wimbledon so her Quarter Final defeat was not completely unexpected, even in the weaker half of the draw. Elena Rybakina was also beaten in the last eight, while Sabalenka will be wondering how she blew her winning position in yet another Grand Slam Semi Final defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

All credit has to be given to Marketa Vondrousova for winning the Wimbledon title and the lefty could be a top player on the Tour as long as she can stay healthy after wrist issues just held her career back. Not many would have tipped Vondrousova up for the title before a ball had been hit at Wimbledon and she was arguably one point away from losing her Quarter Final match against Jessica Pegula as the Czech player became the latest maiden Grand Slam winner.

The victory also means that half of the last fourteen Grand Slams played by the women has been won by a first time Slam Champion. Going a bit further, fourteen of the twenty-five Slams played since Serena Williams won her twenty-third and final title have been won by first time winners, while multiple Slam Champions like Naomi Osaska and Ashleigh Barty are not on the Tour now. As I have mentioned before, this is not ideal and there has to be a hope for fans of the WTA that one of the multiple former Grand Slam Champions in the US Open draw will be able to win the title.

The likes of Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff will have something to say about that in New York City in a few weeks time, but you would make the top three players in the current WTA Rankings to be the favourites when the tournament comes around.

The third Grand Slam of the season is over and there is just one more grass court tournament to be played, although that usually brings in a weaker field in Newport. This week the European summer clay court season has gotten underway with events in Bastad, Gstaad, Budapest and Palermo, while the hard court events will soon begin to get going in preparation for the US Open.

Some big names are taking part on the ATP Tour this week and I will be making some selections, although it may not be every day.

The focus will likely be on the European clay court events, with Tuesday beginning with Picks from the ATP Bastad event.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 games v Jozef Kovalik: Any player that comes through the Qualifiers has to be respected, but Jozef Kovalik has not had a very strong season on the clay courts.

In general his matches have been played against those outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and yet Kovalik holds an 11-17 record on the surface in 2023. Three times he has played against top 100 Ranked opponents and Jozef Kovalik has lost all three of those matches, while struggling with his return of serve.

It has to be expected that Kovalik will have more return success against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has won 61% of service points played on the red dirt in fourteen matches this year. That number does jump up to 64% when only focusing on matches played against those outside of the top 50 in the Rankings, while the Davidovich Fokina return is a major weapon for him on the surface.

Last year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina crushed Jozef Kovalik in straight sets in Hamburg and it was the return of serve that proved to be a major difference between the players on the day.

The Spaniard should have the return to put Kovalik under pressure and eventually break through the defences on his way to a relatively comfortable First Round win.

Elias Ymer - 5.5 games v Leo Borg: It will never be easy for the son of Bjorn Borg to make a big impact on the Tour with the expectations that come with the surname and that has been an issue for Leo Borg.

Of course the flip side is that Borg is going to be given a lot more opportunities because of the achievements his father had in his prime and a Wild Card into Bastad is an example of that.

Leo Borg faces another Wild Card in Elias Ymer, but the latter has been one of the stronger Swedish players since the retirement of Robin Soderling. Elias has not matched the progress made by his brother Mikael, who is surprisingly playing in Gstaad rather than here in Bastad, but Ymer is considerably higher in the World Rankings than Leo Borg.

The serve needs to be improved by Elias Ymer if he is going to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings, but he has struggled to find the consistency needed. The return is the stronger side of his tennis, but Ymer should still have too much all around for Leo Borg who has not beaten anyone Ranked inside the top 350 over the last twelve months on this surface.

The lower Ranked player has had issues remaining competitive within matches when things start going downhill and Elias Ymer should have enough to find at least four breaks of serve that should allow him to cover.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elias Ymer - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Bernabe Zapata Miralles - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 18th)

A strong grass court season for the Tennis Picks was not quite signed off with the momentum I would have wanted, but it was a positive set of results over the month.

Like many, I have taken a week off since Wimbledon was concluded just to take a short break in what is always a very long season.

The remainder of this month will see some clay court tournaments played as both Tours see some bigger names on the courts who are trying to pick up some vital Ranking points, while the end of the month will be the beginning of the run towards the US Open.

Before that there are some big tournaments to be played and the next three weeks will be about managing the Tennis Picks and avoiding any really poor days.

Pedro Martinez - 2.5 games v Carlos Taberner: A heat wave has hit Europe and temperatures have been soaring across the continent- things won't be any different in Gstaad on Monday when this ATP tournament gets underway with main draw action.

Two Spanish players will be meeting and you do have to expect both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner to be used to playing in hot conditions, although it is a challenge for two players who have not been in the best form to ignore the difficult temperatures being faced by players.

Despite being comfortable clay courters, this has not been a season to write home about for either Pedro Martinez or Carlos Taberner. The former has won one of his last eight clay court matches going back to early April, while Carlos Taberner has won two of his last eight matches and neither has produced very strong clay court numbers in 2022.

I think both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner are going to have to work hard to protect serve in this match, while Taberner has at least had an edge with his return numbers. He looks to be playing the big points much better than Pedro Martinez on the clay in 2022, but this has regularly been a bad match up for Carlos Taberner and his own personal form is not going to be inspiring a lot of confidence.

The numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2022 are very similar, but Pedro Martinez may be coming into a match with a slight mental edge.

Ending his losing run on the clay in his last tournament will have been a boost for Pedro Martinez, while he has won nine of eleven previous matches against Carlos Taberner, including each of the last three. Those three matches have been played since 2019 and are perhaps the most relevant to this one, although the last time Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner played one another is ten months ago.

In those last three matches, Martinez has had a huge edge in the serving numbers and has managed to win 51% of return points against the Carlos Taberner serve, which has led to breaks in 51% of return games played.

I will admit that it is not easy to trust someone who has gotten so used to losing as Pedro Martinez has, but he has enjoyed this match up and that is expected to give him more confidence than he may have had against other opponents. The heat could be a problem for both players, but I think Pedro Martinez will be able to produce enough quality on the return to edge past his compatriot and earn a spot in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Pedro Martinez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 18th)

A lot of the biggest names on the ATP and WTA Tours will have needed a break after Wimbledon and I have to admit I needed a couple of days to recharge from the third Grand Slam of the season too. I might not have needed any physical effort to enjoy the tennis over the first two weeks of the month, but it did take a mental effort to research the matches.

Ultimately I was rewarded with a strong tournament adding plenty of units to the 2019 season totals and it was also the third profitable Grand Slam of the year. That's a positive, but I always felt it was going to need a couple of days off from looking through matches before I was ready to try and add to the profits with a new game in a new week.

This week we have stops in Bucharest and Lausanne on the WTA Tour and Bastad, Newport and Umag on the ATP Tour. The First Round of all of those tournaments have been completed, but the Quarter Final line up has not been decided in all but Newport.

It might not be the week with the deepest level of quality at the events being played, but all those involved will be looking for key Ranking points in the last clay court or grass court events being played on the main Tour. At the end of this month the run to the US Open will begin with hard court events leading into the two big Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati which is when the very biggest of names will be back in action.


Below you will see the plays I have from Thursday with the focus being the two clay court events being played on the ATP Tour. I have also updated the season totals with the Wimbledon numbers in the books.


MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Facundo Bagnis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 112.21 Units (1337 Units Staked, + 8.39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 18th)

While we have a couple of tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and the ATP Bastad event which have regular start times, the ATP events in Umag and Newport have late starts which means the markets are slower at being released.

For now I am going to add my sole Pick from Bastad and I will add any from the other couple of ATP tournaments to this thread in a few hours from now.


The first couple of days after Wimbledon have been pretty positive for the Tennis Picks made and I am looking to keep the positive momentum going.

There are a lot of players who are more likely to be seen on the Challenger Tour who have entered the main Tour events this week so they can be a little tougher to read with the step up, but so far it has been a good week and I want that to continue as we move towards the middle of the tournaments.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: I'll be the first to admit that Fernando Verdasco is a player on the wane and one who can be difficult to trust considering some of the rumours that have swirled around his matches in recent years.

He had to come through in three sets in the First Round but Verdasco has continued his love affair with this tournament in Bastad.

I would expect Verdasco to be too good for Pedro Sousa who spends 99% of his time at the Challenger level and who hasn't exactly produced hugely impressive numbers in those matches. All respect to Sousa for coming through the First Round in the main draw here, but beating Radu Albot is a completely different test to trying to do the same to Verdasco in the Second Round.

I have little doubt that Verdasco is on the wane in his career, but his numbers on the clay courts have remained pretty strong in 2018. The results have not necessarily followed and Verdasco now throws in a really poor set compared with a couple of years ago when the Spaniard might have one or two poor games per match.

That is a concern when backing him to cover such a big number as this one, but I think Verdasco enjoys playing in Bastad and he is still significantly better than Sousa. The latter may have some good moments, but I expect Verdasco to wear him down with the superior tennis and I will back him to cover in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might be strange to see Albert Ramos-Vinolas down as the underdog in this Second Round match despite the fact he is the Seeded player who received a bye in the First Round. Add in the fact that this match is played on the favoured surface of the Spaniard and you can make a case for Ramos-Vinolas as the underdog.

However 2018 has been a difficult season for Ramos-Vinolas even on the clay courts and he has under performed to this point.

Now he faces a player in Dusan Lajovic who has been in very good form over the last couple of months and who has been playing the superior tennis of the two on this surface. There are still areas where Lajovic can look to improve, but his numbers on the clay courts have been strong enough to suggest he can get the better of Ramos-Vinolas especially with a solid win already under his belt.

I can see both players having their chances to break serve here, but Lajovic has been a little more productive when it comes to taking those opportunities.

I am expecting that to happen here and Lajovic is able to beat Ramos-Vinolas for the first time on clay and also cover the number on his way through to the Quarter Final in Umag on Friday.


Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It has recently been announced by Gilles Muller that he is planning to hang up his racquet at the end of the 2018 season. That may not be a big surprise when you see the slide down the World Rankings and the veteran is clearly not feeling he can play his best tennis nor having the desire to battle through Qualifiers to play in the big tournaments in the months ahead.

The final event he will play on grass comes here in Newport and Muller had a solid win in the First Round against Marcos Baghdatis which will give him some encouragement that he can have a strong week here.

He faces another veteran in Marcel Granollers, but the Spaniard is intent on fighting his way back up the World Rankings. Injuries and a loss of form have seen Granollers drop out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, and the majority of his 2018 has been on the Challenger Tour.

That isn't always a bad idea to step back and produce some wins and rebuild flagging confidence and Granollers has done that for the most part in 2018.

However you would expect Muller to be the favourite on the grass courts and he served well enough in the First Round to edge out Granollers. The return game is always a concern for Muller as is his poor season so far, but I think his win over Baghdatis could propel him to a strong week on the Tour and I like him to beat the Spaniard and cover the number in his Second Round win.


Matthew Ebden - 4.5 games v Tim Smyczek: There may be some regrets from Matthew Ebden that he was not able to go a little deeper into the Wimbledon draw after a very strong month on the grass courts. At least he gets the chance to finish his grass campaign on a high as Ebden bids to go one better than 2017 when he was beaten in the Newport Final.

This time Ebden is coming into the tournament in much better confidence after the strong results on the grass and the numbers have backed up the improved results.

I expect he will have too much for Tim Smyczek who battled through the First Round in a close match against Bjorn Fratangelo which could have easily gone the other way. Unlike Ebden, Smyczek's serve has shown to be pretty vulnerable on the grass courts and I expect the Australian to take advantage of that in this Second Round match.

This is not the first time they have played on the grass in 2018 after Ebden dismissed the challenge of Smyczek comfortably in Hertogenbosch last month. On that occasion Ebden lost just five games and I think he is going to be good enough to cover a big number in this Second Round clash too.

Smyczek's decision to take in a hard court Challenger event between this tournament and Wimbledon might not be ideal too even though he won in the First Round. I expect Ebden will be able to dominate his own service games for the most part and eventually expose the vulnerabilities of the Smyczek serve in a strong win.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: If Matthew Ebden was disappointed in his Wimbledon campaign you have to wonder what Mischa Zverev was feeling having been beaten in the First Round. That came just days after winning the title in Eastbourne and I have to factor in the expectation that Zverev could have been a little tired, although that doesn't give him an easy excuse for the poor First Round defeat.

This week there are no such fatigue issues and Zverev's game is tailor-made for the grass courts.

He will expect his serve to dominate Vasek Pospisil, who is a limited returner to say the least, but the key to this match is how well the German can begin to pick the big Pospisil serve.

The Canadian has been able to rattle through enough service games on the grass courts to keep him from ever being hammered on the scoreboard, while Pospisil is just as comfortable as Zverev getting up to the net and putting away volleys. Both players will be keen to get up to the net and put the pressure on their opponent to hit multiple passing shots to win the match, but I do edge towards Zverev being able to do that a little more than Pospisil.

Zverev has a few more effective returns than Pospisil and my bigger concern is that this is his first match on these grass courts having received a bye in the First Round. The first set could be very competitive with that in mind, but by the second I would expect Zverev to begin to get a read on the Pospisil serve and make enough returns to force a break or two.

That may be enough to cover the number in this Second Round match and I will back Zverev to earn the win and move through to the Quarter Final later this week.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 18th)

There were quite a few matches scheduled for Monday at the five tournaments being played this week, but I didn't really find anything but the one angle with the Carla Suarez Navarro pick.

Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.

On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.

The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.

The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.

That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.

These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.

Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.

However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.

That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.

Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.

The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.

The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.

Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.

As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.


Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.

Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.

The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.

The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.

It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 18th)

The change in the summer calendar on the ATP Tour to accommodate the Olympic Games means this week is another loaded with tournaments from across the globe. In total there are seven different draws taking place this week, even more than there were last week, with organisers making sure their event is not dropped from the calendar.

That means we get some weaker draws too as most of the top names will look to wait until the big event in Canada begins later this month, while those that are playing this week are spread across the various events.

It does give the chance to players who might not usually get into a main draw of a ATP Tour event, but the quality of that event is clearly lessened at the same time.


Last week was a solid one keeping the picks totals moving in a positive direction after a tough start to the season. A third winning week will be most welcome as we move on to the first of the two Masters events being played on the hard courts in preparation for the US Open. The first of those begins on Monday in Canada which will be the sole event taking place next week, but first we have to get through plenty of tennis this week.


Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games v Facundo Bagnis: It wasn't the best home tournament for Mischa Zverev last week in Hamburg as he was beaten in the First Round by a Qualifier, but that was a really close match. A similar performance would give him a chance to spring a surprise against Facundo Bagnis who reached the Quarter Final in Bastad, especially if his lefty serve gives the Argentinian as many problems as Fernando Verdasco's did last week.

My concern in backing Zverev has to be the fact he has won just one main Tour clay court match since 2011 and spends the majority of his time in Challenger level events these days. The German did win one of those Challenger events on this surface though and he is facing an opponent who generally plays at that level himself, although Bagnis has at least put together some wins at the main Tour level.

Bagnis has won three titles at the Challenger level on clay this season and he has shown he can win matches at the higher level on the red dirt as we only need to look at Bastad last week to see that.

This has all the hallmarks of being a very close match and this isn't a lot of games to be given, but I think they could be enough to keep the older player competitive. Zverev did beat Bagnis in a Challenger event just a couple of weeks ago in what was a match decided by a couple of points here and there. I expect this match to be similar and I am looking for Zverev to keep things close even if he does end up losing the match.


Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: His best days are likely behind him and Alex Kuznetsov is Ranked outside the top 300 in the World Rankings, but I still feel he might be under-rated in this First Round match in Washington. Kuznetsov has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set and he has a more wins in Challenger events/Qualifiers than he managed in the whole of 2015 already.

A couple of strong runs on the hard courts over the last month will have improved his confidence and I don't think Kuznetsov will be intimidated by Bjorn Fratangelo having played three competitive matches against him in 2015.

The younger American reached the top 100 in the World Rankings last month and he has been an improving player on the Tour. Anyone who can beat Novak Djokovic 62 in a set of tennis, as Fratangelo did in Indian Wells, has to be respected, but he does remain inconsistent on the hard courts and that is where Kuznetsov has to feel he will have his chances.

To me this looks a match where Fratangelo is being asked to cover too many games. It was only last week he was beaten outright by a player Ranked lower than Kuznetsov and the latter this week has already put together two wins in Washington to boost confidence. Their previous matches have generally been very competitive and I don't think there is a lot between them even if you consider the 200 places in the World Ranking. All in all I think Kuznetsov will keep this competitive and will take the games on offer.

MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 31.68 Units (1123 Units Staked, - 2.82% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 18th)

The first day of the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are in the book and you have to say it was a fascinating day with surprises, big comebacks, and teams on the brink of making it through to the Semi Finals. In fact the ties in Australia, Belgium and Argentina could all be completed on Saturday if the leading nation wins the Doubles rubber, although I am convinced that at least one of those ties is going to be surprising most tennis fans.

Australia were hosting Kazakhstan on the grass courts in Darwin and I had them as a pretty strong favourite to progress to the Semi Final, but both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios were beaten on the first day to put their nation in a big hole. It is not quite over yet for Australia as they are likely the favourites to win the remaining three rubbers, but Kazakhstan have raised their game when the players join up for Davis Cup duty and they look set to move on to take on France or Great Britain.

With Argentina and Belgium both 2-0 up in their ties too, the closest tie going into the weekend and the only one guaranteed to have at least one match on Sunday is the one between Great Britain and France.

The Doubles rubber does look to be pivotal in the tie assuming Andy Murray is to win his remaining Singles rubber and the French will be big favourites to see off James Ward for a second time.


While the Doubles takes centre stage in the Davis Cup ties being played around the world, the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have reached the Semi Finals as those events come to a close. It is a real chance for some players to improve their Rankings while the 'big names' are having a break and the inconsistency lower down the World Rankings has been highlighted this week with a number of surprising names in the Semi Finals.

None of the players will care though as they have a chance to win a title which can't be taken off the record as those Semi Finals are played through the day.


Johanna Larsson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: There are only two places in the World Rankings that separate Johanna Larsson from Yulia Putintseva and the two players have both been in decent form to suggest this will be a close match.

Both players were Finalists in clay tournaments last week and have barely been pushed on their runs to the Semi Finals here in Bastad. However, I am giving the edge to Larsson who has enjoyed playing in front of her home fans as her previous results in Bastad have suggested and she has a couple of weapons that may give her the chance to progress to another Final here.

The first of those is the serve where Larsson is capable of getting some very good angles and decent kick from it which could be a problem for Putintseva to deal with. Putintseva is one of the smaller girls out on Tour and the kicker might make it difficult for her to get on the front foot like she likes to do and that might allow Larsson to also dictate points.

The second is the obvious fun that Larsson has playing in Bastad and she is more than capable of winning the title here. She seems to have been in more control of her own emotions and Putintseva never seems that far away from mentally getting down on herself as she showed in her Second Round match with Alize Lim.

It might need three sets to separate the players, but I like Larsson to find her way through to the Final with a 57, 64, 63 win in this Semi Final.


Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu is the last remaining home favourite in Bucharest having disposed of Andreea Mitu in the Quarter Final but this looks a tough match up for her. The Romanian might be one of the more awkward players on the Tour to play with her variation of play and slice off both wings, but Sara Errani has won the last three matches between them.

Sara Errani is someone who won't mind all the skilful tennis that is likely to be on display as she will feel she can grind down Niculescu in the longer, drawn out rallies that we will likely see.

I am expecting a lot of breaks of serve in this one as neither of the players have a powerful serve that is going to earn a lot of cheap points. However, I think Errani is the better clay court player even if she has slipped from the level she showed a couple of years ago.

I think the Italian has also shown a little better form this week and Errani should be capable of winning this match and moving into the Final if she is not distracted by the crowd or the shot selection Niculescu will use. It could be tight for a couple of sets, but Errani should then break clear by just knuckling down enough on serve and moving to the Final.


Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: It hasn't been a great week for the picks, but one player that I have backed with some success is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. I see no reason to not back her again in this Semi Final against Polona Hercog even if the latter has been in good form this week too.

As impressive as Hercog has been in moving into the Semi Final having lost just fifteen games in three matches, Schmiedlova has been even better with just ten games lost in the same number of matches. Both have had some impressive wins, but I do think Schmiedlova's run has been the better of the two and she may also hold the mental edge having beaten Hercog in Miami as the underdog earlier this season.

It is Schmiedlova who has had the better success on this surface, but this has the makings of a close match where Schmiedlova will have to play the big points as well as she did in the Quarter Final.

The week has been a good one for Hercog, but she had been struggling prior to this time in Bucharest and I think her run comes to an end here. Schmiedlova should note that Hercog is someone that does enjoy playing the drop shots, but dealing with those and being aware of that shot should aid her in a fairly routine win.

MY PICKS: Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-12, - 9.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 23.05% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 18th)

Lukas Rosol + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The last two times these players have met have both come on the clay and both of those matches have also been very competitive with each player winning one.

I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.

The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.

Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.


Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.

The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.

Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.

Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.

It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.

If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.

There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 18th)

We finally got the confirmation we were looking for when Roger Federer took to the court on Wednesday- he has indeed changed his racquet, despite all the success he had with his old one.

Federer has decided to do something that Pete Sampras admitted he wished he had done- he has upgraded his racquet and has decided to move to a bigger head. This will increase his power and give Federer the chance to get in line with the other three top men's players on the Tour, although it will be interesting to see how his one-handed backhand holds up with a bigger racquet.

It is further proof that Federer is not convinced about his game after a pretty poor 2013 by his high standards and the early defeat at Wimbledon must have inspired a change he was perhaps considering anyway. I am guessing this was also the reason he decided to take a Wild Card in Hamburg and Gstaad so he can get a feel for the racquet ahead of the three big tournaments that will be played in August/September.

I can understand why Federer would decide to make the change, but the next couple of months will tell us all we need to know about his chances of getting back to the top of the game and having the chance to add to his Grand Slam tally.


It was a mixed bag when it came to the picks yesterday as they went 2-2, although I was a touch disappointed that Fernando Verdasco didn't cover after opening up a 40 lead in the final set and then double faulting his next service game away (three double faults in one game). Still, the picks are in the positive as we go into the fourth day of the week and that is at least something to hold on to.

Hopefully it will be a little more productive on Thursday with the following picks from the matches on offer.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I backed Nicolas Almagro in an identical spot last week against the same opponent and he managed to come through the hard way in that match after dropping the opening set.

It was a poor start from Almagro as Guillermo Garcia-Lopez got off to a fast start, but the rest of the match was mostly dominated by the former.

Both players will know what to expect from the other, but the Almagro serve could once again prove to be the difference as he is capable of setting up easy points on that shot, either through unreturned serves or with short replies.

He should have learned from the slow start last week and while we will see chances for both men to break serve, I think Almagro will come through in a more routine manner this week compared with last week in Bastad.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Carlos Berlocq is certainly enjoying a period of very strong form after winning his first title in Bastad last week and following that up with a couple of wins here in Hamburg.

However, he has to be feeling some effects from the amount of tennis he has had to play in the last couple of weeks, particularly as Berlocq has needed three sets to win both matches played this week.

He will be facing Tommy Haas, a player who sneaked through the last Round after a three set battle of his own. I just feel Haas can serve pretty big on his day and can be tough to break, while Berlocq has to earn every point he wins.

At some point the huge amount of tennis that Berlocq will catch up with him, while this is a player that has been beaten by players like Paul-Henri Mathieu, Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Sergiy Stakhovsky on the surface this season. Berlocq will likely make it a tough first set, but I expect Haas to just put a little too much pressure on him and record a 64, 63 win.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jan Hajek: I am sure Roger Federer is glad that he doesn't have to face Ernests Gulbis in this Third Round match and this is a much more winnable match for him.

With a new racquet in his hand, it is tough to know what Federer's intentions are this week- of course he wants to win the tournament, but is he in 'testing' mode and just trying to get comfortable with his new weapon of choice?

Either way, you have to think if he performs as he did in the last two sets against Daniel Brands that he will be too good for Jan Hajek, a player that has mainly achieved his successes on the Challenger Tour.

I expect Federer will be able to come through with a 61, 64 win.


Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v James Duckworth: The ATP tournament in Bogota is not exactly loaded with top players so the likes of Vasek Pospisil and James Duckworth can pick up some big Ranking points during the course of the week.

Both of these players have the chance to go very deep in the tournament this week and both have had success on the hard court at Challenger level. However, of the two, Vasek Pospisil seems to have the more upside to his game with a big serve going to be well aided by the conditions here in Bogota.

James Duckworth was a surprise winner in the First Round so his confidence has to be in a good place, but the Canadian's serve may be the difference between the two in this match and I see Pospisil going through to the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win under his belt.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1.80 Units (22 Units Staked, + 8.18% Yield)

Tennis Picks July 18th

I haven't put this post up any sooner as I didn't really like anything from the tournaments played in Europe so I was waiting for full markets from the layers for the tournaments in Atlanta and Carlsbad.

Yesterday was a mixed bag really, but it was the money management that let the picks down. Hopefully that will improve as the week moves on.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Michael Russell: I have already tipped up Kevin Anderson to win this tournament, but I do like his chances against the veteran Michael Russell who had a three setter last night.

Anderson was a little rusty in his First Round win over Paulo Lorenzi, but he managed to get through in straight sets and that win should put in a good place. The South African will also look back to last season when he beat Russell at this tournament in straight sets.

The veteran American still has a decent first serve that can help him set up points, but his second serve is a little vulnerable and that is where Anderson can make hay. I expect there to be more pressure on the Russell service games as he will know that he won't have too many chances to break the Anderson serve and that can lead to anxiety at crucial times.

Russell actually leads the head to head between the players 3-2, but I am expecting Anderson to win this one 6-4, 6-4.


MY PICK: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-4, - 1.93 Units (10 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks July 18th

After a very disappointing week all round last week, I am hoping for a little more luck and hope to get back into making profits.

Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:


Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.

In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.

Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.

The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.

Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.

I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.

The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.

Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.


Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.

Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.

I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.

I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.


James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.

I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.

Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.

I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.


MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)