Tennis Picks 2023 (July 29th)

The tournaments being played this week are into the Semi Final stage on Saturday and I have something to build upon from Friday having seen the Tennis Picks end up with a 4-1 day.

It is the best single day since Wimbledon, and it was nice to be on the right side of a capitulation having had some tough luck losses of late.

With the tournaments winding down, there are only a handful of matches scheduled to be played and that is also because of the rain in Warsaw which means that event is playing catch up through Saturday.

Anna Bondar v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The tournament in Lausanne has seen some surprises this week and it has been an important one for the players who are trying to pick up some vital World Ranking points ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season. Many playing here will be much more comfortable on the clay courts compared with the hard courts and so there may not feel like a lot of opportunities to improve Rankings over the next month.

It has been a tough twelve months for Anna Bondar, but winning the tournament this weekend will mean pushing back into the top 100. This will give her plenty of motivation and her performances in her three wins here this week have been solid, especially behind serve.

A good win over Mirra Andreeva will have given Anna Bondar some confidence, but this is the toughest test she might be facing this week against Elisabetta Cocciaretto who is already assured of a new career high World Ranking inside the top 40. Winning the title might mean cracking the top 30 and giving her a chance of being Seeded for the US Open draw next month and there is no doubt how well Cocciaretto is playing after coming from 5-0 down to win thirteen of sixteen games in her Quarter Final win on Friday.

Both players have produced very strong returning numbers, but Anna Bondar has gotten a little more out of her serve and that could be the difference for the underdog in this Semi Final.

That was the case when Bondar beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto last year on the clay courts, although the improvement of the Italian over the last year and the loss of form of Bondar is likely to mean this one is more competitve.

Even with that in mind, Anna Bondar might just be able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve, especially the first serve, and that may make the difference for her in a week where she has found some of her best tennis. Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was Ranked Number 50 and she has shown enough quality on the clay courts to beat a specialist like Elisabetta Cocciaretto as the underdog.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: This is an ATP 500 event being played in Hamburg so there are some big names that have entered the draw.

It makes this Semi Final all the more surprising, although both Laslo Djere and Zhizhen Zhang deserve their place in the final four having produced some quality wins already this week.

Out of the two players, Laslo Djere can argue he has had the stronger victories compared with Zhizhen Zhang and that could be key in helping get through this tough Semi Final. It is going to be difficult, but it is a winnable match for Djere, although Zhizhen Zhang has to be given a lot of respect for producing his best tennis when playing higher Ranked players than himself.

However, his best win this week has been against the World Number 45 and that does not compare to the victory Laslo Djere produced against defending Champion Lorenzo Musetti.

The serve has been a big weapon this week, but Djere has shown a bit more consistency on the return compared with his overall numbers on the clay courts, while Zhang has been overachieving. Zhizhen Zhang has found a way to get to Break Points even though his return has not been the best on the surface in 2023 and he has played those points really well, but Zhang may also need a bit more out of his serve to win this match.

Both have served well in the conditions and have to be respected, but Laslo Djere looks to be performing a little bit better and can earn the edge over the course of a couple of hours on court in this Semi Final match up.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: Any player that can hand out the kind of one-sided beating that Arthur Fils put together against Casper Ruud has to be respected.

Doing so on the grass would be perhaps not so notable, but Fils crushed Ruud in the Hamburg Quarter Final on a clay court and there is no doubting the kind of confidence boost this could offer the young Frenchman.

He saw his compatriot Luca Van Assche struggle to make much of an impact against Alexander Zverev on Friday, but Arthur Fils may feel his overall game is much bigger than Van Assche's and that makes him more dangerous.

However, Arthur Fils may need to find another level even to the one he produced against Casper Ruud if he is going to be Alexander Zverev in this Semi Final. The home player has been well supported in Hamburg and Zverev has been a very strong winner in all three matches played here and is serving at a huge level.

This has allowed Zverev to really have a go when it comes to the return of serve and he has broken at least three times in all three wins. While Arthur Fils had a strong serving day in the Quarter Final, he was given more of an examination by Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round and the Fils numbers have been far overachieving his overall performance on the clay courts.

Like his opponent, Arthur Fils has used his strong serving to give him some freedom on the return of serve and that has certainly worked for him in his three wins in Hamburg.

Playing against Alexander Zverev should be much tougher and Arthur Fils will struggle to match the emotion of his Quarter Final win. It makes it all the more difficult considering how well Zverev is playing this week and the home fans can push their favourite through to the Final.

MY PICKS: Anna Bondar to Win @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10, - 1.60 Units (42 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 28th)

The Quarter Finals take centre stage on Friday at the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Hamburg event is already into the Semi Final Round.

Any selections from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals will be added to this thread on Friday, but the four Picks from the other events can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: It sounds like Alexander Zverev is going to deal with the latest allegations made against him very much in the same manner as he did the first and it has seemingly made little effect on his tennis.

He was beaten in the Quarter Final in Bastad last week, but that was against a quality player in Andrey Rublev and it is the kind of result that may have happened at any time. If there was an impact from the latest news headlines, that has not been backed up by Alexander Zverev's performances in Hamburg this week as he has produced two solid wins and the fans have not really been on his back.

This looks like another very winnable match up for him when taking on Frenchman Luca Van Assche, who was perhaps a little fortunate to come from a set behind to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round.

Luca Van Assche has proven to have a pretty effective return on the clay courts, but he is facing a big serving Alexander Zverev who has faced just three Break Points in his two wins in Hamburg. The second serve is where Van Assche has to expect to get some joy, but Alexander Zverev is getting in a high percentage of first serves and you have to believe that he will largely contain the threat from the other end of the court if Zverev can continue to make 70% plus of his first serves.

If he can do that, Alexander Zverev will certainly have a lot of faith in his own returning ability having won 43% of return points played on the clay courts this season when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those have come in eighteen matches, so far from a small sample, while the German has broken four times in both wins in this tournament.

There are plenty of positives for the 19 year old Van Assche to take, but he is still growing into his body and the serve is likely to be improved once he does so. He is only winning 58% of service points against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and Luca Van Assche has been broken in 29% of his service games played against those stronger players.

Alexander Zverev will feel his serving can be one that builds pressure on the scoreboard too and this is a match that the German can win and cover this handicap as long as he remains focused.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Arthur Fils: There have been criticisms of the kind of schedule that Casper Ruud is willing to play, but it was still a surprise to hear him speak about it in his press conference in Hamburg.

Some believe his World Ranking is not justified as he plays, and wins, a lot of the ATP 250 tournaments, but Ruud is more than a flat track bully. Any player that has reached two French Open Finals and a US Open Final deserves more respect, especially as Casper Ruud has been unfortunate to lose those three Grand Slam Finals to Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

He has not enjoyed his time too much in Hamburg this week and had criticisms of the court, while the indoor conditions might be something Ruud has to face again.

Two tough wins over Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin might have just hardened Casper Ruud and this should be a little more comfortable as a match up.

That is not being disrespectful to young Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is still learning at this level even if he won the title in Lyon before the French Open. A win over Francisco Cerundolo to take the title home is one that has to be given credit, but Arthur Fils is just 1-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and his serve has proven to be a vulnerable one in those matches.

He has played well this week to win his two matches, but Fils will know this is a significant increase in level of opponent and the suggestion is that his returning may not be up to the level that may be needed to stay with Casper Ruud.

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: These two met last week in Gstaad and the match ended prematurely when Roberto Carballes Baena had to withdraw midway through the second set.

He looks like he is better this week after winning his Second Round match while dropping four games, but Roberto Carballes Baena has had a slightly disappointing season on the clay courts, which are usually where he is considered a specialist.

Of course he is facing a former French Open Champion, but one who is not the same player he was at his best. Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find the consistency to get back towards the very top of the Tour and at 38 years old it is very difficult to imagine he will have enough of an Indian summer to at least have another strong Grand Slam run.

Improving his World Ranking would help, but that has been tough for Wawrinka who is just 27-22 over the last twelve months.

Two wins in Umag will have given Stan Wawrinka confidence and he could be tough to stop if he serves as well as he can- he is holding 83% of his service games played on the clay courts this season and Wawrinka has only dropped serve three times in his two wins here. He has broken nine times in those victories over Filip Misolic and Federico Coria and Stan Wawrinka should have success against this Carballes Baena serve.

I would not put too much stock into the match in Gstaad considering Roberto Carballes Baena had to pull out, but Stan Wawrinka should have the Break Points to win this match. That hasn't always mattered this month, but creating the chances should put Wawrinka in a position to win this match against the higher Ranked player who only won 58% of his service points against Taro Daniel in the Second Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.26 Units (32 Units Staked, - 19.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 27th)

It was shaping up to be a brutal Wednesday after a couple of matches swerved away from the winning line late on, but a couple of solid results from Umag avoided the complete disaster.

There remain some frustrations with some of the Picks that have come close to crossing the line with a win, but fallen short, although I do feel the selections are still being identified in a decent way.

Ultimately that feeling will only be the right one if the winners start to pile in and there is time to make sure this is a solid week for the selections.

The focus on Thursday will be solely on Hamburg where all three Tennis Picks are played.

Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Finally getting one over on Francisco Cerundolo will have pleased Yannick Hanfmann, even if it came via a third set retirement, and the home player should be able to back that up against Zhizhen Zhang.

You would be foolish to completely dismiss the chances of Zhizhen Zhang only because we have seen Yannick Hanfmann throw in a poor match just last week in Gstaad, but the higher Ranked player has been the superior clay courter this season.

Zhizhen Zhang was beaten by the same opponent who eventually got the better of Yannick Hanfmann last week in Gstaad, but he has been good enough to take a set from Casper Ruud at the French Open and had a strong run in Madrid where he beat top 20 Ranked players Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz in consecutive Rounds. However, the majority of his clay court tennis over the last twelve months has been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and that makes his overall numbers a little disappointing.

The serve has proven to be an effective weapon for Zhang and it will be important here, but he has not returned as well as Yannick Hanfmann who has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay this season. If you remove the nine clay court matches played against opponents inside the top 50, Hanfmann's break percentage improves slightly to 30% and he has served just as well as Zhizhen Zhang in the main.

The lower Ranked player has broken in 21% of return games played on this surface in 2023 and again it has to be noted that the majority of those have been against opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. In those six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhang's break percentage drops to 14% in games and this should mean Yannick Hanfmann has the edge in terms of chances to get to Break Point.

Numbers don't always tell the full story and Yannick Hanfmann has just produced a 'big' win which can be tough to back up. However, having the home support should help and produce a much better all around effort than the one he had in his loss last week, while the German has a 23-8 record on the clay when looking at results against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings.

He has won fourteen out of eighteen matches on the clay against players Ranked lower than him when they have played, and he would have covered this handicap margin in eleven of the thirteen best of three set matches Hanfmann has won.

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 games v Eva Lys: This has already been a strong week for Eva Lys who is pushing back towards her career high World Ranking after back to back wins in Hamburg.

In both matches she has beaten higher Ranked opponents and has opened up the draw by beating the Number 2 Seed in the draw, while the German home crowd will give Eva Lys another boost.

The run has been a surprise considering Lys had lost all four clay court matches played in 2023 prior to the start of the tournament in Hamburg. She has made use of her place in the main draw and Eva Lys has to be respected for not only winning her matches, but winning in the style she has been with dominant results.

You have to expect this to be a much sterner examination for the home player than she has had in the tournament so far when facing Arantxa Rus, although the World Number 60 has already had to spend over five hours on the court. Winning will help, but Rus would have preferred to have avoided having to win a deciding set in each of her two wins this week.

On paper this should be an 'easier' test, but Lys has some momentum behind her.

However, I have to like the fact that Arantxa Rus has a 30-5 record on the clay courts when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, and that record becomes 26-2 when only considering matches against opponents outside of the top 100. Only one loss has been against a player lower in the World Rankings than Rus when the match has been played and you have to believe her returning will be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final.

Eva Lys will feel her own returning has been effective enough to create Break Points considering how she has played this week. She has been able to step up her own personal level when facing players Ranked higher than herself on the clay courts in her career, but Eva Lys may just find Arantxa Rus a little too battle hardened in this one.

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 games v Noma Noha Akugue: There are a couple of home players that have made it through to the Hamburg Quarter Final and both have surprised by managing to do that.

Out of the two, Noma Noha Akugue has certainly had a tougher time than Eva Lys, although you have to respect the character shown in coming back from 6-0, 5-4 down to win the match in three tough sets. The two and a half hours spent on the court should not be an issue for the young lefty, but Noha Akugue would have invested a lot of emotional energy into her Second Round win over Storm Hunter.

It will see her move into a new career high World Ranking come Monday morning, but Noma Noha Akugue is going to have to beat a tough clay courter in the Quarter Final when going up against Martina Trevisan.

The Italian is another lefty and her two wins this week have been impressive in what has otherwise been a mixed year on the clay courts. Martina Trevisan had been able to look after serve well enough this week and that has seen her dominate her two matches, although it is a vulnerable shot and makes it a little harder to trust Trevisan to cover big handicaps.

However, Martina Trevisan has been able to beat players she is expected to beat with her three losses against players Ranked below her being against Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and in a retirement.

Breaks have to be expected in a match like this, but Martina Trevisan can put Noma Noha Akugue under pressure with her clay court nous and the German player could be a little flatter after a big win on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 4.08 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.69% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 26th)

The events being played this week have been affected by the rain and it has led to a number of matches in Umag and Lausanne that have to be played on Wednesday having originally been scheduled to be played on Tuesday.

Hamburg has also been a wet tournament, and there could be some more poor weather to come, although that is an event that has a court with a roof which is a bonus.

With the Second Round beginning and some First Round matches to be completed, Wednesday is going to be another busy day. The Tennis Picks for the day can be seen below and I am looking to push on from a winning day to try and put a strong week in the books.

Once again the main focus is on the event in Hamburg, but there are a few selections from the other events that are being played this week.

Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Strong clay court form post-Wimbledon has taken Sebastian Ofner into a career high World Ranking and his Seeding in the Umag draw meant direct entry into the Second Round.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in Bastad in the week after winning a title in Salzburg and so there has to be a confidence in his tennis right now. We did not always see that in his two tough wins last week, but this should be a favourable enough match up for Ofner on the red dirt of Umag.

Motivation may be the biggest question mark with a clay court tournament in Austria coming up next week, one that Sebastian Ofner will be targeting for a successful week. That may mean he is not ready to put in the fight he needs to really have a deep run in Umag, and Ofner is not going to be good enough to win matches without a full effort.

This potential lack of motivation is a concern for sure, but Sebastian Ofner has been given a decent draw against Alexei Popyrin who is not exactly known for his clay court pedigree. It is something of a surprise to see the Australian in Europe after Wimbledon rather than the hard courts of North America, and this is the first tournament Popyrin is playing after a disappointing grass court season as far as he is concerned.

After coming through Qualifiers, Alexei Popyrin did have solid runs at the clay court Masters events in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier this year so he cannot be written off. The serve can still be a big weapon for him, even on the slower clay courts, and that can build scoreboard pressure on opponents.

Alexei Popyrin does hold 85% of his service games that have been played on the red dirt, but that number drops a little bit when only considering matches against opponents who come in as higher Ranked players. He is 3-6 in those matches this season and Popyrin has really had issues on the return of serve, something that Sebastian Ofner has to look to exploit.

These two have split two previous meetings with Popyrin winning on the grass last year and Sebastian Ofner holding a hard court win from 2018. The clay courts should give the Austrian a bit more of an edge and he can do enough to win this match and cover this handicap mark.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Sebastian Baez: For a lot of players, a long week on the Tour can take something out of the legs and it can be hard to replicate the success of one tournament in the next one played.

However, Casper Ruud has shown he can handle the European summer after Wimbledon and is happy to head to three different clay court tournaments and expect himself to produce his best tennis in each of those.

Last week Ruud ended as Runner Up to Andrey Rublev in Bastad, but he has been given until Wednesday to begin his Hamburg efforts as he looks to win another title on the red dirt. In his career, nine of ten titles won have been in clay court events and Casper Ruud took the title home in Estoril earlier this year in an event where he beat Sebastian Baez on the way to the trophy.

That match up came in the Quarter Final, but Sebastian Baez has been struggling for form in recent weeks and an early loss in Bastad will not have helped the confidence of a player that has slipped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings. He was Number 30 back in April, which underlines the recent issues Sebastian Baez has had, although he is a solid clay courter who will need to be respected.

Unfortunately, Baez has struggled when facing the elite on the surface and has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the red dirt this season, including that straight sets loss to Casper Ruud in Estoril.

Half of the sixteen clay court matches won by Sebastian Baez this season came during the early Golden Swing in South America and his numbers have been a little weaker on serve and return since the clay court events in Europe have begun to be played.

Sebastian Baez can be dangerous on the clay courts and has taken a set from both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie on this surface this season, but Casper Ruud might be playing at a higher level than both of those players on the clay courts.

He might need a bit of time to get rolling, but Ruud should be able to create the majority of Break Points and in more return games than the other way around and he can win this match with a bit of comfort on the scoreboard.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: There haven't been too many 16 year old tennis players making the kind of impression Mirra Andreeva is doing on the Tour and the young player can make her way through to the Quarter Final in Luasanne.

This is a big spread for someone so young to cover, but Mirra Andreeva is making short work of opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts. This season she has a 20-1 record against such opponents on this surface, while Andreeva has an unbelievable 34-3 mark against players outside of the top 100 on the clay in her career.

From any player that would be impressive, but for a recently turned 16 year old, it just underlines the potential that so many believe Andreeva is destined to fulfil.

Sixteen of her twenty wins against players outside the top 50 on the clay would have seen Mirra Andreeva cover this handicap mark set and it is going to be very difficult for Anna Bondar to stay with her barring having a huge serving day.

Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 50, but injury and loss of form has seen her fall out of the top 100.

Anna Bondar has beaten Karolina Pliskova on the clay this season, but she has a 2-5 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2023. She was well beaten last week by another young Russian player, Elina Avanesyan, and it feels like a match where Bondar is going to be under immense pressure in the majority of service games played.

The Mirra Andreeva serve is still a work in progress, which is not a surprise considering her age, but the World Number 64 looks after that shot effectively enough to believe she produces another strong win here in Switzerland before yet another jump in her career best World Ranking mark.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Arnaldi - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 25th)

A quiet start to the week saw a couple of Picks split with a win and loss apiece, while Mirra Andreeva had a change in opponent.

That did not stop the young player from crushing Dayana Yastremska and Andreeva continues to look like a potential superstar in the making. Her serve will only improve as she gets older, while the return already makes her very dangerous and the overall tennis being produced is very impressive from a 16 year old.

A much busier day is in store on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played in the five tournament venues hosting tournaments.

My main focus early in the week is the joint ATP and WTA tournament being played in Hamburg, although there is also a selection from the ATP Umag event taking place on the clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: Any player coming through the Qualifiers has to be considered dangerous early on in a tournament, even for the top Seeds in the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti has to appreciate the fact that Elias Ymer has won two matches here in straight sets and he has clearly put the defeat to Leo Borg last week in Bastad behind him. Circumstances were not ideal with brother Mikael announcing he had been given an eighteen month suspension on the morning of the Elias Ymer match with Borg, but that was a painful loss all the same against someone Ymer should be beating.

He has looked strong in the Qualifiers, but Elias Ymer will know there is a considerable gap to bridge to the World Number 18 who lost a couple of places after his Semi Final defeat in Bastad last week. The Italian played well in his first two matches, but Musetti still has a tendency to leave players hanging around within matches, while has not always played his best tennis against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

This season Lorenzo Musetti only holds a 3-4 record in those matches on the clay courts, which is a massive surprise and perhaps suggests he does not focus as he should do. Three of those four losses have been against players who were lowly Ranked earlier in the year, but who are well inside the top 100 now and Musetti was able to win two matches as expected last week before he fell to Casper Ruud in the Semi Final.

His return should be effective against the Elias Ymer serve, which has given up plenty of Break Points in the few matches he has had against top 100 Ranked opponents. The Swede does have a couple of wins on the clay courts in those matches, but was well beaten by Casper Ruud in the First Round of the French Open and Elias Ymer is expected to be put under pressure from the Musetti serve.

Elias Ymer can play well enough to create Break Points of his own, but this should be a match that is played on the Lorenzo Musetti racquet and the Italian can break down the Qualifier and pull away for a strong win.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Pedro Cachin: In general, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has beaten opponents that he would have expected to on the clay courts this season, but he did suffer a disappointing exit in Bastad last week.

The defeat has dropped his mark to 7-2 on the clay against opponents Ranked outside the top 20, although the Spaniard has the chance to make up for that when playing in the First Round in Hamburg.

Overall it has been a tough twelve months for Davidovich Fokina who has lost more matches than he has won, despite some quality performances. Stretching the wins together has been an issue and the Spaniard is close to slipping out of the top 40 in the World Rankings so this is an important tournament for him after reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg twelve months ago.

His return has not been an issue on the red dirt, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has not looked after his serve as well as he would have liked, although the numbers have been stronger when facing those outside of the elite on the Tour. Last week the serve kept Davidovich Fokina under pressure having to facing eight Break Points and he will need to be better when taking on a player who will be feeling really good after a very successful week.

Pedro Cachin is at a new career high World Ranking after winning the title in Gstaad on Sunday, the first ATP Tour title he has won his career.

He has played some solid tennis this season, but the emotion of Sunday could leave Pedro Cachin short both mentally and physically when he heads to the court just a couple of days later. The serve was a big weapon for him and Cachin was good for the Tennis Picks with wins in the Semi Final and Final, but it has to be noted that he has still to show more when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.

Last week he beat Roberto Bautista Agut to move to 3-5 in those matches in 2023, but Pedro Cachin was perhaps a little fortunate to win that tight match. His numbers have been dented in those tougher matches, although I would certainly give him more of a chance in this one if Cachin had not just played a long week with an emotional outcome.

A strong start may see him push through, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that may be in play and he can win and cover.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex Molcan: For the third time this season, Alexander Zverev and Alex Molcan are meeting in a clay court match on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev won very comfortably in Paris at the French Open, but he was made to work much harder last week in Bastad and needed all three sets to be played before earning a passage into the Second Round.

Some of that was down to wastefulness on Break Points with Zverev winning just four out of fifteen attempts compared with Alex Molcan's three conversions from six chances. He created a lot of chances to break in Paris too, but Alexander Zverev was much more ruthless on that day, while he also looked after the second serve a lot more effectively too.

Allegations from his personal life cannot be helping Alexander Zverev, but he has played on the Tour with those hovering over this head before and it was not the reason he was outplayed by Andrey Rublev in Bastad. Being back in front of home supporters should at least give Zverev more motivation having reached the Semi Final the last time he played in Hamburg and this is a match where he is expected to have plenty more Break Points.

Alex Molcan is struggling for form, but might have taken some confidence in winning a set against Alexander Zverev last week. He would have hoped for a kinder draw in Hamburg than having to face Zverev again, especially as Molcan has lost three matches in a row on the clay courts and having had a difficult time behind his serve.

He has played the big points well enough to avoid dropping serve at times, but this leads to pressure on his overall tennis and Molcan has been having his struggles on the court.

Maybe he can serve well enough to save another eleven Break Points in this match, but Alexander Zverev should be motivated to have a strong week in Hamburg and he can win this one with the Breaks needed to cover.

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Last year Francisco Cerundolo won the title in Bastad and reached the Semi Final in Hamburg in consecutive weeks on the clay courts, but his defence of the Bastad title ended in the Semi Final on Saturday.

The performance in the tournament was strong and Cerundolo was very unlucky to lose to Andrey Rublev, the eventual winner, so there is little doubt that this is going to be a confident player arriving in Hamburg.

He is facing one of the home players in the draw in Yannick Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo holds three wins over this opponent on the clay courts since February 2022. One of those came in straight sets at the French Open a couple of months ago and Francisco Cerundolo does look like he will enjoy the match up that Hanfmann brings to him.

In their two matches this year, Francisco Cerundolo has created thirty-three Break Point chances compared with eighteen for Yannick Hanfmann. The favourite will want to win a high percentage of the first serves that go in, but Francisco Cerundolo also has to be confident he can win the rallies that develop from second serves and he can make it four in a row against this opponent.

Yannick Hanfmann has enjoyed a solid year on the clay courts which has helped drag his World Ranking back up to Number 45, which is a career high mark. However, his service numbers have declined significantly when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this year and you have to believe that Francisco Cerundolo has the returning ability to keep the home player under pressure.

Nothing comes easy against Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo has all of the tools in his tennis to keep his run of wins going against the German player.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mayar Sherif - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 24th)

The last two tournaments have not been what I expect from the Tennis Picks, but those have brought plenty of frustration.

You can make adjustments when matches are blow outs going against the selections, but this has been a month where players have been in solid positions to win and then lost all form and played poor tennis at key times.

It is annoying, but it is also part of a long season on the Tour.

This week the tournaments move onto another few clay court stops in Europe, but there are a couple of hard court events being played as the run up towards the US Open officially begins in Atlanta. The big Masters events are due to go in August ahead of the tournament in New York City, but it has been confirmed that Novak Djokovic will not play the Canadian Masters as he looks to give himself more time to rest and recover.

The ATP Hamburg event is a pretty big one as an ATP 500 tournament, and the Tennis Picks are largely going to concentrate on that tournament this week. Monday tends to be a quieter day with Qualifiers being completed and some of the markets not produced for all of the matches that are set to be played, while I am looking for a stronger return all around after another poor week.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: A disappointing loss in Bastad will have hurt, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry can make up for that by earning a spot in the Second Round in Hamburg.

It has been a strong season on the clay courts with the notable result being his run to the Quarter Final at the French Open, and that was a run that helped Tomas Martin Etcheverry reach a career high World Ranking last month. With a couple more solid performances over the next four weeks, Etcheverry has to be thinking about being Seeded for the US Open, which may give him an opportunity to pick up some more World Rankings.

Things have not always been smooth for the Argentine and the defeat last week in Bastad means his post-Wimbledon performances on the clay courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive. Last year he was beaten in the First Round in all three clay court events played in the European summer, but the first serve has looked a more efficient weapon for Tomas Martin Etcheverry this year and this could be a key for him in this First Round match.

His opponent is someone that has to be respected- Laslo Djere is very capable at his best, but he is also never that far away from a really poor outing, which is perhaps why his numbers are average on the clay courts. Last week he was beaten in very poor fashion by Zizou Bergs in Gstaad, but overall Laslo Djere has played well against opponents outside of the top 20 on the clay courts and has a 12-6 record against them on this surface in 2023.

The numbers are much stronger in those matches and Djere is someone who can serve well on the clay, while the Serb's return game has to be respected too.

However, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been a little better all around on the surface over the last seven months and the feeling is that he will have enough quality to get the better of a tough opponent.

Both have similar service numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20, but Etcheverry has been slightly superior on the return and that could be shown up in this First Round contest that may be played under the Hamburg main court roof.

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 games v Erika Andreeva: It is always going to be tough to perform on the Tour when your younger sister is seen as the more talented up and comer and a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion in the making.

This did not stop Venus Williams from making a huge impact of her own on the Tour even when her father was speaking about the potential of Serena, and that is something that Erika Andreeva is going to have to show.

She has not really been able to find the strong results that Mirra has done, while Erika's World Ranking has slipped back outside of the top 150.

Things can quickly turn around, but it can also be very difficult to crack the top 100 once you slip out of those positions. Jil Teichmann is a great example of that having lost form in a twelve month period and the Swiss player is struggling to put the results together to end her slide.

A Quarter Final run last week will help, but that was in a WTA 125 tournament and this is a big week for the home player. The fans are going to be behind Teichmann, which will help the lefty, while a strong win over Erika Andreeva a few weeks ago will give the favourite more confidence to take into the match.

Erika Andreeva has flashed some of her potential, but her serve is still vulnerable and Jil Teichmann should be able to take advantage and frank the win she holds over her. While she is not playing at the level that took Teichmann into World Number 21 in July 2022, she does hold a 6-2 record against players not Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts and that includes that win over Andreeva.

For all of her potential, Erika Andreeva is just 4-6 in matches against players outside of the top 100 on the red dirt in 2023 and she has suffered some comfortable defeats in those matches.

MY PICKS: Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 21st)

The weather in London reached ridiculous heights on Tuesday and it certainly meant I did not want to be on a laptop or computer any longer than I needed to be.

After the day for the Tennis Picks, it was easy for me to take a day off to recover.

Bad luck seemed to be flying all over the place over the first couple of days of this week and I needed the mental break of a day off just to cool down (mentally and physically).

What a day- I will make no excuses for the Cristian Garin and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman picks- but I have struggled to accept some of the other selections and the way in which they were undone.

Laslo Djere won his first set 6-1 and was up 4-2 in the second set having held onto serve all the way at that point of the match, but somehow was beaten 6-1, 6-7, 3-6.

Thiago Monteiro played poorly, but did have his chances in the second set which would have seen him cover.

Fabio Fognini was leading 6-3 after set one and looked to have momentum having recovered from a break down in the second set before once again losing focus.

Jaume Munar won the first set with a double break, but lost the second having dropped serve twice more than his opponent and then waited until the cover was impossible before winning four games in a row to secure the match.

And worst of all, Marc-Andrea Huesler who led 7-6, 5-4, 40/0 on serve and having not faced a Break Point in the match... Amazingly he failed to serve it out and ultimately lost the match.

Honestly it is tough to take a day like that when so many seemed to blow strong positions and it was frustrating to say the least.

While it likely means a losing week, I am expecting much better through the remainder of this week and month to back up what had been a solid grass court season.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players met in the Quarter Final in Umag twelve months ago and both were Seeded.

Back then Filip Krajinovic was the Number 3 Seed, but Carlos Alcaraz was the Number 7 Seed and Number 73 in the World Rankings... Now he is playing in Hamburg as the top Seed in the draw and the World Number 6 to underline the kind of progress that Alcaraz has made on the Tour.

Earlier this season he was playing like the World Number 1 and it was telling that so many were tipping Carlos Alcaraz to truly announce himself to a wider public by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ultimately he was narrowly beaten in the Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz will be someone to watch out for at the US Open next month and especially if he can produce some confidence boosting tennis in the build towards that event.

The Spaniard is a confident hard court player, but the tournament in Hamburg will help build the Ranking, while Carlos Alcaraz has made it clear that his main ambition for the season is making sure he is playing in his first ATP Finals. He is well on course for that and I think Carlos Alcaraz will be all the better for the challenging win in the First Round having produced some of the best clay court numbers of any player on the Tour in 2022.

The Quarter Final win over Filip Krajinovic in Umag was far from easy last season, but Carlos Alcaraz has moved past the Serb who is an inconsistent clay court player. Filip Krajinovic had a solid win over Sebastian Baez in the First Round, but the latter had a deep run in Bastad and I think that ultimately made the difference in the match.

I do think this is going to be a much tougher match for Krajinovic who has not really returned as well as he would have liked on the clay courts with breaks in just 18% of return games played. Filip Krajinovic will likely feel the pressure on his own serve against a player like Carlos Alcaraz who wins plenty of return points and who has broken in 33% of return games played on this surface this season.

Carlos Alcaraz has improved on the Tour mainly because of his serve and I expect a much better performance on this side of his tennis than we saw in the First Round. He has been winning 65% of service points behind his serve on the clay courts and I think that will also build the pressure on Filip Krajinovic and to a higher extent than when they met last season.

It is a big spread to cover, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be much better than he was in the First Round and he has the return game to cover the mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Bernarda Pera - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 19th)

The hot weather sweeping across Europe had an impact in the early matches at the three stops taken in by the ATP and WTA Tours and there is another challenging day ahead for the players getting into First and Second Round action.

Wet weather is expected later in the week and the cooler conditions will benefit all as the events in Hamburg, Gstaad and Palermo continue.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: After snapping a long losing run to Fabio Fognini when these two players last met in 2019, Aljaz Bedene was back in a familiar position in Belgrade earlier this season.

Once again Fabio Fognini got the better of Bedene to extend his dominance of the head to head between the players and they are meeting on the clay courts again, this time in the First Round in Hamburg. All but one of their previous ten matches have been played on the clay courts and Fabio Fognini leads the Aljaz Bedene 8-1 as these two veterans of the Tour meet with some important Ranking points on the line.

The two players are slipping down the World Rankings and further drops, or the end of the Protected Ranking in Aljaz Bedene's case, will mean having to Qualify for some of the bigger tournaments on the Tour. I don't really envision either wanting to do that long-term and so it is important to pick up some Ranking points in the summer clay court swing before the majority of players head to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.

We have already seen the signs of the pressure that comes with having to Qualify for main draws last week when Fabio Fognini was beaten in the final Round of Qualifying for Bastad. He did eventually make the main draw as a Lucky Loser, but was beaten in the First Round and the Italian is clearly a player that has seen his better days.

His numbers back that up, but Aljaz Bedene has had an even more difficult season on the red dirt and he has a 3-7 record overall in 2022. The early defeat at Wimbledon under a Protected Ranking means the Slovenian has not played for three weeks now and I do think he is vulnerable in this match up even when at his best.

Fabio Fognini has a vulnerable serve on this surface, but his return game has proven to be a big problem for Aljaz Bedene to deal with. It has meant that Bedene has broken in 25% of the return games against Fognini on the clay compared with the 33% mark produced by the Italian and that is a significant edge.

It ended up being a very comfortable win for Fabio Fognini when these two met in Belgrade in April, but this one is likely to be a big tighter considering the lack of confidence that Fognini is seemingly playing with. Even then, the Italian should have the tennis to break down the Aljaz Bedene game and I think he will eventually be able to do enough to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a best of three set match.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: There have been a number of big name players that have missed significant time on the Tour due to injury and who have returned in 2022 looking to rediscover their best competitive form. The biggest is Dominic Thiem who has finally gotten back into something of a winning habit over the last couple of weeks, but don't underestimate the kind of talent that Borna Coric has and the hope is he can finally begin to fulfil that.

He reached a career high of Number 12 in the World Rankings, while Borna Coric looked to have the tennis that could make him very effective on all surfaces. At 25 years old, the Croatian could still have a very bright future, but the long layoff has left him vulnerable in 2022 and he has only won two of the eight matches played on the main Tour since returning.

With no World Ranking points on offer, I am perhaps not that surprised that Borna Coric decided to skip Wimbledon and instead play a couple of Challenger events on the clay courts. The Croatian will hold a Protected Ranking for now, but Borna Coric is currently outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and it is really important for him to pick up some momentum and plenty of wins to avoid having to play those smaller events more regularly.

It was a positive month for Borna Coric with a Quarter Final run in Perugia and then winning the title in Parma, but he returned with a First Round loss in a Challenger event last week and he may have hoped for a much better draw here in Hamburg. He has already been beaten by Laslo Djere once this season and the latter also holds a 2-0 head to head advantage over Borna Coric with both wins being earned on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has become a very steady, consistent player on the clay courts, although he doesn't seem to have the extra gear to really beat the best players on the Tour. He has been able to challenge them on this surface and he put together a decent tournament in Bastad last week before losing to Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final.

The numbers remain solid and Laslo Djere will feel he can get a little more from his return game than Borna Coric in this First Round match to make all of the difference in the outcome of it. When they met in Rome in May, the scoreboard suggests it was an easy enough win for Djere, but the Serb will be the first to admit that he played the big points much more efficiently than Borna Coric and that is going to have to be the case when they meet in Hamburg too.

There hasn't been much between these players in the two previous clay court matches, but Laslo Djere has been able to exert enough pressure to see Borna Coric crack. At this stage of their careers, I think that is still the case for Djere as Borna Coric continues his recovery to the level he was producing a couple of years ago, and I think the higher Ranked player will make it a hat-trick of victories over this opponent on the red dirt.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marc-Andrea Huesler - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.14 Units (12 Units Staked, - 9.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 18th)

A strong grass court season for the Tennis Picks was not quite signed off with the momentum I would have wanted, but it was a positive set of results over the month.

Like many, I have taken a week off since Wimbledon was concluded just to take a short break in what is always a very long season.

The remainder of this month will see some clay court tournaments played as both Tours see some bigger names on the courts who are trying to pick up some vital Ranking points, while the end of the month will be the beginning of the run towards the US Open.

Before that there are some big tournaments to be played and the next three weeks will be about managing the Tennis Picks and avoiding any really poor days.

Pedro Martinez - 2.5 games v Carlos Taberner: A heat wave has hit Europe and temperatures have been soaring across the continent- things won't be any different in Gstaad on Monday when this ATP tournament gets underway with main draw action.

Two Spanish players will be meeting and you do have to expect both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner to be used to playing in hot conditions, although it is a challenge for two players who have not been in the best form to ignore the difficult temperatures being faced by players.

Despite being comfortable clay courters, this has not been a season to write home about for either Pedro Martinez or Carlos Taberner. The former has won one of his last eight clay court matches going back to early April, while Carlos Taberner has won two of his last eight matches and neither has produced very strong clay court numbers in 2022.

I think both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner are going to have to work hard to protect serve in this match, while Taberner has at least had an edge with his return numbers. He looks to be playing the big points much better than Pedro Martinez on the clay in 2022, but this has regularly been a bad match up for Carlos Taberner and his own personal form is not going to be inspiring a lot of confidence.

The numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2022 are very similar, but Pedro Martinez may be coming into a match with a slight mental edge.

Ending his losing run on the clay in his last tournament will have been a boost for Pedro Martinez, while he has won nine of eleven previous matches against Carlos Taberner, including each of the last three. Those three matches have been played since 2019 and are perhaps the most relevant to this one, although the last time Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner played one another is ten months ago.

In those last three matches, Martinez has had a huge edge in the serving numbers and has managed to win 51% of return points against the Carlos Taberner serve, which has led to breaks in 51% of return games played.

I will admit that it is not easy to trust someone who has gotten so used to losing as Pedro Martinez has, but he has enjoyed this match up and that is expected to give him more confidence than he may have had against other opponents. The heat could be a problem for both players, but I think Pedro Martinez will be able to produce enough quality on the return to edge past his compatriot and earn a spot in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Pedro Martinez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 28th)

A really poor start to the week with some poor luck afflicting the selections was a bit of a blow, but a strong Saturday has turned things around and put the Tennis Picks in a position to return another profitable week on the Tour.

All three selections made on Saturday returned winners and on Sunday we conclude the tournaments played with all of the Finals scheduled to be completed. On Monday the Tour moves further into the US Open Hard Court Series with stops in Washington and San Jose, while there is one more clay court event to go for those who like to take in the red dirt between Wimbledon and the final Grand Slam of the season being played.


My focus in this thread is from the Final being played in Hamburg. Any selection from Atlanta will be made on Sunday once the two Semi Final matches and market for the Final have been formulated, while I have also updated the totals from this week below.


Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There has not been a player that has been able to defend the Hamburg title since 2005 when Roger Federer was able to do that before the tournament lost its status as a Masters event. That run might come to an end on Sunday when Nikoloz Basilashvili looks to defend the title he won twelve months ago.

The Georgian was able to beat home favourite Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final, although Basilashvili needed a final set tie-breaker to overcome his opponent. In fact Basilashvili was arguably the inferior player on the day, but he was able to win the big points much more effectively than Zverev who had 12 more break points on the day, but both players were able to earn four breaks of serve each.

This week we have seen Nikoloz Basilashvili produce much better numbers than he has been able to generate on the clay courts throughout his career. The serve has been important for Basilashvili who has won 64% of points played behind serve and held 83% of the service games, but it is the performance on the big points against the serve which have proved to be key for him.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has broken in 31% of return games played this week, but it will be a test to get the better out Andrey Rublev who is another player that has perhaps produced the best possible clay court tennis he can. The youngster has won 66% of the points he has played behind serve and backed that up with 41% of return points also being won and I think I am giving him the slight edge in this match, although the layers are of the same opinion too.

It could be argued that Rublev has not been as strong on the big points as Basilashvili considering he has held in 79% of service games and broken in 29% of return games compared with the 83% and 31% numbers in the same category his opponent has managed. Those are numbers that surprise considering Rublev is winning a higher percentage of points on both the serve and return.

I could say Basilashvili may also hold a slight mental edge having beaten Andrey Rublev on the hard courts in the very first week of the 2019 season. Both are off emotional wins in the Semi Final, but I think Andrey Rublev might be in a better place mentally having pulled away from Pablo Carreno Busta compared with Basilashvili needing a final set tie-breaker to get into the Final.

This Final could be a good one and I won't be surprised if we need to see three sets to determine a winner. However my edge is with Andrey Rublev as he perhaps sees Nikoloz Basilasvili fade following his Semi Final win which lasted over three hours on Saturday and I will back the young Russian to win his second career title at the main ATP level.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-7, + 3.32 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.76% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.


Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 26th)

It has been the kind of week where a player serves for the match, and the cover, but fails to do that and misses out by one game.

At the time of writing the final Tennis Pick from Thursday has yet to be played. I will update the weekly totals on Friday morning, but the selections from Friday Quarter Final matches can be seen below.

Any selections from Atlanta will be added once the full Quarter Final markets have been formulated.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Twelve months ago Dominic Thiem was beaten in the Quarter Final of the Hamburg Open and he is looking to move at least one step further in 2019. The Number 1 Seed is the big favourite to beat Andrey Rublev on Friday, but Dominic Thiem will know he will need to be a lot more effective when it comes to the break points if he is going to make this match go his way.

On the face of things you would make the Austrian a big favourite anyway when you consider Rublev's history on the clay courts, but the young Russian has been in good form so far this week.

Both of his wins have been solid as Rublev has got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve. This has been a relatively strong part of his game anyway, but Rublev has to be pleased with his run at Hamburg having won 43% of return points and breaking serve in 30% of return games played.

The serve is perhaps not as strong as Rublev would like, but he has won 65% of points played behind that shot. That is a few clicks higher than his overall clay court numbers in 2019, but Rublev has still had a few issues getting through all of his service games with holds in 76% of service games played this week despite the improvement as far as points won behind serve are concerned.

Now he has to play someone like Dominic Thiem who is at his most comfortable when it comes to playing tennis on the clay courts. Two wins over Pablo Cuevas and Marton Fucsovics has seen Thiem win all four wins sets played, and his serve has been a potent weapon with 95% of service holds secured in those victories.

Dominic Thiem was not as effective on the break points as much as he would have liked in the Second Round win over Fucsovics, but he has still broken in 26% of return games played. He has been able to put enough pressure on the return of serve to break his opponent's down, but Thiem will have to be a little more productive at the big points to ensure this is not another tough battle.

These two players met in Monte Carlo eighteen months ago and it was a close, competitive match between the players on the clay courts. Dominic Thiem edged that one, but he can make this a little more simple as long as he can take a couple more of the break points in this match than he has in his last couple of matches.


Pablo Carreno Busta v Fabio Fognini: Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fabio Fognini are very comfortable playing on the clay courts and they meet for a place in the Semi Final of Hamburg on Friday. Both players have won all four sets they have played in the first two Rounds so confidence should not be a big factor, although Carreno Busta may have the mental edge.

The Spaniard has won all six previous matches against Fabio Fognini and that includes three wins on the clay courts, although they have not played on this surface since 2017. Fabio Fognini has had slightly better fortunes playing Carreno Busta on the clay compared to their overall record, but the latter has had the edge with 77% of service games held compared with Fognini's 65%.

Pablo Carreno Busta has had a slight edge on the service points won too, which won't be a surprise considering those hold numbers, and I think mentally he may have the advantage in this one.

It does have to be said that Pablo Carreno Busta's return of serve has been very important for him in his two wins this week and he is playing at a significantly higher level than what he has managed in 2019 on this surface overall. This week he has won 44% of return points and broken in 35% of return games which is a significant improvement on his 2018 and 2019 numbers on the surface.

Maintaining that level will obviously be a challenge for Carreno Busta considering the numbers set in the last eighteen months, but he will be playing with some belief considering the success he has had against Fognini.

The Italian has had some strong runs on the clay in 2019, but he has been inconsistent with his level of play. This week it looks like we have got Fabio Fognini in some of his better form with 85% of service games held and breaks of serve in 33% of return games played. The serve has been a slight weakness for Fabio Fognini in general though and I expect Carreno Busta to challenge him in that regards.

Both players will be full of belief that their level can see off the other, but I am favouring Carreno Busta thanks to the head to head advantage and his general play on the clay courts. This week we have seen both players win their matches with some relative comfort, but I think Carreno Busta deserves the credit for having the best win of the two having seen off Jan-Lennard Struff in the Second Round.

At close to pick 'em prices, I will back Pablo Carreno Busta here.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.94 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 25th)

This has not been a great week for the Tennis Picks and some of the frustration is down to the poor conversion of break points between the players I've picked and those they are playing.

It was the case on Wednesday as Casper Ruud blew a set and a break lead before going down in three sets. Dominic Thiem then missed his first eight break points before finally converting some and the day was wrapped up by Juan Ignacio Londero missing five break points before dropping the first set in his eventual three set defeat.

This week has thus been one of the worst of the 2019 season, but there are still four days to come before the tournaments are completed in Hamburg, Gstaad, Atlanta, Jurmala and Palermo. If Thursday is a really poor day I am thinking I might put a pin in the week, but I am looking for better results from the three selections made below.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: There were high expectations of Alexander Zverev going into the 2019 season after his success at the ATP Finals last November. Ultimately he has underwhelmed and Zverev was very critical of himself after another early Grand Slam exit at Wimbledon earlier this month.

He is clearly searching for a level of confidence and that has meant Zverev has taken an entry into the Hamburg Open where the ATP are running a 500 level event this week. The home favourite earned a solid win over Nicolas Jarry in the First Round, although that was against an opponent who was winning a title on Sunday and could have been a little fatigued.

In the Second Round Alexander Zverev takes on Federico Delbonis who was a Semi Finalist in Bastad before his run was ended by Jarry and who has followed up with a solid looking win over Marco Cecchinato in the First Round here. It has been a good month for the Argentinian who has won a Challenger title in Perugia before the run in Bastad and who continues to play his best tennis on the clay courts.

A solid month of clay court tennis has seen Federico Delbonis really improve the way he has been returning serve with 44% of points won against an opponent's serve. That has seen the Argentinian break in 36% of return games played and he will feel he can put Alexander Zverev under pressure with what has been a vulnerable confidence in matches over the last few months.

In 2019 Alexander Zverev has seen his numbers drop being serve and return on the clay courts, and that has seen him offer up seven fewer wins this year compared with 2018. He might be able to close that number in what is a relatively weak field for an ATP 500 event, but this is going to be a tough match for Zverev.

These two have some similar numbers which does make it difficult to back Zverev here, but I think a couple of factors could favour him. He should be the fresher player considering how much tennis Delbonis has played over the last few days, while their match at Geneva ahead of the French Open on the clay courts there will stand him in good stead.

Alexander Zverev held 81% of his service games played compared with Federico Delbonis who was at 64% in the same category. There was a marked difference in the percentage of service points won by each player and, while Delbonis is playing with more confidence now, I do think we will see the service edge with the German in this one too.

This is a big spread on the handicap considering how vulnerable Alexander Zverev's confidence seems to be, but I think the home crowd can carry him through this one. Federico Delbonis can cause problems, but I think Zverev is going have a little too much for him and can win and cover here.


Bernard Tomic v Matthew Ebden: Falling out of the top 100 of the World Rankings has not exactly humbled Bernard Tomic who still seems to have a strained relationship with the rest of the world. He is not in the mix when it comes to the Australian Davis Cup team, while Tomic has perhaps been enjoying the spoils of his career rather than looking to really make the most of his potential.

His come from behind win over Frances Tiafoe in the First Round is a big result, but it will be meaningless to Tomic if he is not able to take advantage of opening up the draw. However I have no doubt the fact that Tomic is so erratic day to day that the layers are not convinced he will be able to do that when facing compatriot Matthew Ebden.

The latter was a solid winner in the First Round too, but in general Matthew Ebden has had a difficult time on the hard courts. He only improved to 3-9 on the hard courts with his win over Kamil Majchrzak and Ebden has seen his numbers decline significantly from 2018 to 2019 on this surface.

In those years Matthew Ebden has seen his number of service games held drop from 78% to 73% on the hard courts and that has only made it more difficult to hide the relatively weak return numbers. It will be an issue for him against someone like Bernard Tomic who has been holding 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and who continues to be as good as his serve allows him to be.

Bernard Tomic has also been a lot more effective than Matthew Ebden when it comes to the return of serve and I do think he is someone that can be backed at the prices on offer. The 3-0 head to head in favour of Tomic is not entirely relevant as their last match against each other came back in 2014, but compatriots playing each other can produce something of a hierarchal issue for the supposed underdog to overcome.

I do think Matthew Ebden will feel like that even though this is a virtual pick 'em on the day. Backing Bernard Tomic is not an easy decision, but I think he can use the stronger serve to edge out his fellow Australian.


Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Two very young players on the Tour have begun to make an impact at the main ATP level which has seen Miomir Kecmanovic and Ugo Humbert both reach peak World Rankings going into this tournament in Atlanta. Another strong run will see them improve further and the layers have set this up as a pick 'em with both having very similar numbers for the 2019 season.

These two actually met in Antalya on the grass courts when Kecmanovic managed to beat Humbert in straight sets back in June, but the hard court form also seems to suggest that the young Serbian can be backed here.

Miomir Kecmanovic reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells earlier this season and, while he has yet to really put together some consistency on the surface, he is someone who has produced some decent numbers. The Serbian has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts at the main ATP Tour level and he has also broken in almost 22% of return games which does make him a credible player on the surface.

Those numbers stay steady on the serve when only considering the Kecmanovic performance against players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings on this surface. However Kecmanovic will be confident going into this match considering he has upped his return numbers to finding breaks in almost 28% of return games played.

I do have to admit the return numbers are in for a strict test from Ugo Humbert as the young, lefty Frenchman has held 87% of service games played on the hard courts. The serve has been a massive weapon for Humbert who has won 67% of points played on the hard courts in his matches on the main Tour and that is going to give him every chance of trying to build some scoreboard pressure on Kecmanovic.

The issue for Humbert has been trying to get enough out of his own return of serve and against a server like Kecmanovic he can't expect to have a lot of joy. Ugo Humbert has only broken in 13% of return games played on the main Tour, but even adding the Qualifiers and Challenger events in 2019 and he has broken in less than 20% of his return games played on the hard courts.

With similar levels of serving, I do think the Kecmanovic return can give him the edge when it comes to facing someone like Humbert. Both should be confident that the serve can set them up for success, but I favour Kecmanovic to earn the win and place into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)