Tennis Picks 2023 (July 21st)

A couple of early winners got the day off to a solid start, but the Jordan Thompson pick was a really poor one, although that is mainly down to the final result than the actual identification of a selection.

The Australian just had a really tough day in the office and these things can happen on a tennis court.

Overall it was at least another positive step forward after a really bad start to the week, but there is still more room for improvement with the tournaments entering the Quarter Final Round on Friday.

Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 games v Hamad Medjedovic: A couple of days ago I was tempted to back Hamad Medjedovic to get the better of Dominic Thiem in the Second Round in Gstaad, but ultimately thought the odds were just about right and the value might not have been there.

That did prove to be a wrong decision on the day, although the young Serb, who had celebrated his 20th birthday the day before, battled back after dropping the second set to beat the former Grand Slam Champion.

It is a result that has been part of a big week for Hamad Medjedovic, although this is going to be another tough test for him in the Quarter Final. You might not think that after beating Dominic Thiem, who has reached the French Open Final at his best, but you also have to accept that the Austrian is still finding his way back on the Tour after injury.

This is not going to be the case for Yannick Hanfmann, who also needed three sets to win his Second Round match. The World Number 46 could seen reach a new career best World Ranking and a win in this Quarter Final will go a long way in doing that for Hanfmann, who has been a comfortable clay courter in his time on the Tour.

Beating those he has been expected to has been key to the rise up the World Rankings for Yannick Hanfmann who has a 16-3 record on the clay courts when playing opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. The numbers produced in those nineteen matches have been very impressive with Hanfmann holding 85% of service games and breaking in 38% of return games, although one of those losses came in the final Qualifying Round at Roland Garros before Yannick Hanfmann was given a Lucky Loser spot.

Yannick Hanfmann obviously would not have covered this line in those three defeats against players outside of the top 100, but he has overcome the line in the sixteen wins. He has lost just two sets in the victories and Hamad Medjedovic has already played a lot of tennis in Gstaad this week after coming through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw.

Hamad Medjedovic has two top 100 wins on the clay this week, but he was just 1-4 in those matches on the red dirt in 2023 prior to the run to the Quarter Final here. The numbers have made for tough reading with the Medjedovic serve being attacked and the pick here is that Yannick Hanfmann has enough to win and cover this line set.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-10, - 3.26 Units (38 Units Staked, - 8.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 19th)

It felt like deja vu on Tuesday- I swear I lived the exact same day when it came to the Tennis Picks back in April when the Madrid Masters took place.

Once again I have fallen foul of a truly miserable day when seemingly anything that could conspire to go wrong would go wrong.

There is no doubt in my mind that Mikael Ymer's eighteen month suspension, which was announced before brother Elias entered the court in Bastad, had an affect on the performance of the other Ymer on the Tour.

However, he was not the better player and ultimately deserved to lose, whether he was unfocused or not.

The Picks that actually grate on me much more are the ones where everything points in one direction, but the exact opposite has happened.

Both Alexander Zverev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were on the wrong end of the very fine margins as they failed to cover to my absolute irritation- let's face facts, if you're creating a lot more Break Points than your opponent, you are clearly doing something right on the court, but both of those players played those big points incredibly poorly.

Alexander Zverev had fifteen Break Points compared to his opponent's six in the match... But Zverev broke four times and lost serve three times.

In the first two sets Tomas Martin Etcheverry played, he had seven Break Points and gave up two... Yep, you've figured it out, Etcheverry broke once and his opponent managed to break twice!

So between those two players selected, they played thirty Break Points and won eight of those!! On the return of serve, Zverev and Etcheverry created twenty-two Break Points and won five of those key points.

That is quite something when you think about it.

After a really solid first half of the year, this is the second day outside of a Grand Slam that has given me a thumping, but it would be a lot more concerning if Picks were being dominated. Ultimately both of those matches could be played again and if the same number of Break Points were played, the likes of Zverev and Etcheverry would win say half of those and in all likelihood would have both had a serious case for the win and cover.

This is the main reason I have not lost faith in the way Picks are being identified, but it would be nice to have a strong end to this week after the debacle of Tuesday. It won't be easy if these margins continue to test the patience, but being patient is the key in a long season when you have to accept some ups and downs.

Over the last month it does feel like we have been on a considerable dip, but I would accept seeing my Picks dominate the Break Point count knowing that the numbers should even out.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Jurij Rodionov: Both of these players have come through the Qualifiers in Gstaad, although it does feel like Zizou Bergs has played the better players to reach the Second Round here.

In saying that, confidence can be built by dismissing players in the manner that Jurij Rodionov has done and he will need to serve well to win this match.

Over the course of the season and in recent years, you would have to give Bergs the edge in clay court performances compared with the Austrian. His serve has been slightly more effective, while Zizou Bergs has proved to be the superior return player on the two in 2023.

The three previous meetings between the players have all been on grass courts, but you might have felt those courts would have suited Jurij Rodionov more than Zizou Bergs. Last month they split two grass court matches so Bergs will be confident he has the tennis to win this match, especially on the red dirt where he has tended to do his best work over the last twelve months.

Conditions in Gstaad tend to make this a faster clay court, which will aid Rodionov, but Zizou Bergs can get the better of him to reach this ATP Quarter Final with the expectation that the Belgian can produce the stronger return numbers on the day.

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: He won the title in Eastbourne in the week before Wimbledon began, but Francisco Cerundolo was not able to keep the grass court successes going as he was dumped out in the Second Round.

Over the last eighteen months, the Argentine has been one of the most improved players on the Tour and last summer he was able to win the title in Bastad before reaching the Semi Final at Hamburg.

Things didn't really go to plan for Francisco Cerundolo after that Semi Final run so he has very little to defend in terms of Ranking points over the next few months. First he has to try and defend the title he won here and you have to believe Cerundolo will be motivated to have a good run in the European clay court events being played.

A bye through to the Second Round means Francisco Cerundolo is playing his first match this week and he is taking on young Frenchman Luca Van Assche who has flashed potential as he grows onto the Tour. A First Round win means Van Assche should be ready to deal with the conditions in Bastad, although he has yet to have a really big defining win in his young career.

Only one top 50 Ranking win on any surface backs up that perception of Luca Van Assche, but he should have some successes in this one against an opponent who is not going to blow you away behind his serve. However, Van Assche will have difficulties in containing the Francisco Cerundolo return game and that is effectively expected to make the difference in this Second Round match.

Luca Van Assche did play well enough to take a set from Novak Djokovic on the clay courts in April, but he was worn down over three sets in that match and Cerundolo should be able to something similar in this encounter.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Isner @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 18th)

A strong grass court season for the Tennis Picks was not quite signed off with the momentum I would have wanted, but it was a positive set of results over the month.

Like many, I have taken a week off since Wimbledon was concluded just to take a short break in what is always a very long season.

The remainder of this month will see some clay court tournaments played as both Tours see some bigger names on the courts who are trying to pick up some vital Ranking points, while the end of the month will be the beginning of the run towards the US Open.

Before that there are some big tournaments to be played and the next three weeks will be about managing the Tennis Picks and avoiding any really poor days.

Pedro Martinez - 2.5 games v Carlos Taberner: A heat wave has hit Europe and temperatures have been soaring across the continent- things won't be any different in Gstaad on Monday when this ATP tournament gets underway with main draw action.

Two Spanish players will be meeting and you do have to expect both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner to be used to playing in hot conditions, although it is a challenge for two players who have not been in the best form to ignore the difficult temperatures being faced by players.

Despite being comfortable clay courters, this has not been a season to write home about for either Pedro Martinez or Carlos Taberner. The former has won one of his last eight clay court matches going back to early April, while Carlos Taberner has won two of his last eight matches and neither has produced very strong clay court numbers in 2022.

I think both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner are going to have to work hard to protect serve in this match, while Taberner has at least had an edge with his return numbers. He looks to be playing the big points much better than Pedro Martinez on the clay in 2022, but this has regularly been a bad match up for Carlos Taberner and his own personal form is not going to be inspiring a lot of confidence.

The numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2022 are very similar, but Pedro Martinez may be coming into a match with a slight mental edge.

Ending his losing run on the clay in his last tournament will have been a boost for Pedro Martinez, while he has won nine of eleven previous matches against Carlos Taberner, including each of the last three. Those three matches have been played since 2019 and are perhaps the most relevant to this one, although the last time Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner played one another is ten months ago.

In those last three matches, Martinez has had a huge edge in the serving numbers and has managed to win 51% of return points against the Carlos Taberner serve, which has led to breaks in 51% of return games played.

I will admit that it is not easy to trust someone who has gotten so used to losing as Pedro Martinez has, but he has enjoyed this match up and that is expected to give him more confidence than he may have had against other opponents. The heat could be a problem for both players, but I think Pedro Martinez will be able to produce enough quality on the return to edge past his compatriot and earn a spot in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Pedro Martinez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 14th)

It has been a strong week on the Tour for the picks with plenty of winners coming in as we reach the Finals in the majority of tournaments being played.

The only negative is that Newport saw their Semi Finals rained off and that means double duty for the player that will be picking up the trophy. I will also be putting up the outright picks from the tournaments that will begin on Monday later on during the day as well as the update for the season totals.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Fernando Verdasco has been playing some solid tennis this week and he has also shown his character in fighting through a couple of matches that have gone the distance.

The Spaniard hasn't win a title this season, but he is playing just about as good as I have seen at any point in the last twelve months and it is no surprise that he could see his Ranking improve again this week. Verdasco will want to be seeded for the US Open and that means picking up as many points int the next month as possible and you can see he is very motivated.

That isn't to say that Carlos Berlocq will be an easy match for him in the Final as the Argentinian is very comfortable on the clay courts and he is very likely to finish with his best record on the Tour.

However, there is definitely more upside in the Verdasco game and I think his aggression is going to give him a few chances to break serve, while he has been pretty effective behind serve for much of the week. There will be breaks simply because they are on a clay court and Berlocq is comfortable on the surface, but I do believe Verdasco is going to be too strong and win his first title after a 63, 64 match.


Sara Errani - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: These two are best friends off the court, but that hasn't stopped Sara Errani dominating the most recent matches between them on the WTA Tour.

The Doubles partners will meet in the Final in Palermo on Sunday and I am comfortable backing Errani to come out on top again having won the last five matches between the players without dropping a set.

It seems Errani is comfortable playing against the variation that Roberta Vinci brings to the court as she is bound to have seen that many times in practice over the years and I do believe the higher Ranked Italian is very happy being back on the clay courts.

One set is bound to be tight, but you have to like Errani being a little too good at key moments and recording a 64, 62 win to take the title home again.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised yesterday and rain delayed in Newport

Weekly Update: 16-5, + 20.10 Units (40 Units Staked, + 50.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 13th)

Friday looked like being a total disaster in terms of the picks this week- it has been a strong week, but exits for Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils in Bastad and Stuttgart respectively means two out three outright picks are out.

However, the daily picks are still in a strong position despite the first losing day of the week and there is still the positive of Lleyton Hewitt being involved in Newport after he came from a set down to win his Quarter Final. Hewitt will need to play a lot better if he is to get past John Isner in the Semi Final, a repeat of the Final from last year, especially with his first serve percentage being too low at the moment.

The Australian will know that he can't afford to let Isner get involved in his service games as it will be tough to break him at a tournament where Isner has won back to back titles. The winner of that match will feel they are the favourites to win the tournament, although Nicolas Mahut will certainly have something to say about that with one grass court title under his belt this season.


It is Semi Final day on Saturday and these are my picks:

Fernando Verdasco v Grigor Dimitrov: I have backed Fernando Verdasco in the last two Rounds here and I think he is worth chancing one more time at least in this Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov.

Verdasco played erratically against Nicolas Almagro in his Quarter Final and those errors can look terrible at times- he missed plenty of easy shots, but he remained aggressive in that match and had his compatriot in defensive positions for a lot of the match.

Grigor Dimitrov came through pretty comfortably against Juan Monaco in the last Round and he has had some big performances on the clay courts this season already. While his profile has been raised by some of those results, Dimitrov can still be a little too inconsistent for me and I think this match will have both players fluctuating their levels between the poor and world class.

I think the Verdasco aggression may help the Spaniard find a way past Dimitrov in this one- his lefty serve is setting up points very effectively at the moment and as long as he can keep hold of his errors and the loose shots, I think he will put a lot of pressure on the youngster.

I like Dimitrov and the way he approaches the game, but Verdasco is a player in form and has looked very motivated this week. I think he is still the more capable of the two on the clay and I think he finds a way to get through in three sets.


Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Michael Russell: Nicolas Mahut always had the game to be dangerous on the grass courts and this season he has fulfilled some of those expectations by winning his first tournament on the surface.

Confidence has to be high in the Frenchman with the amount of wins he has had over the last month and he has come through the first three Rounds here fairly comfortably. Even the win in the Quarter Final was a lot easier than the 64, 76 scoreline would indicate.

I expect Mahut to hold on to serve for most of the match, although Michael Russell shouldn't be underestimated with the veteran believing he is playing as well now as he has at any point in his career. However, Russell has a lot of tennis in his legs over the last couple of weeks and that could finally catch up with him, especially after the three tiebreaks he needed to see of Igor Sijsling in the Quarter Finals.

If Mahut continues to serve at the level we saw in the last Round, I expect he will have a little too much for Russell in this one and come through 75, 64.


Klara Zakopalova + 5.5 games v Sara Errani: Sara Errani was a big favourite to win the tournament in Palermo before the event began, but she could find it a tougher Semi Final than the layers imagine.

While I expect Errani to have plenty of success against the Klara Zakopalova serve, I also believe the latter has the power to hit through the Italian and will be able to earn the chance to break her serve on a number of occasions.

There is no doubt that Zakopalova can be very erratic at times, but she has pushed some of the best players on the Tour in the past and she should have plenty of confidence having reached the Semi Final here.

I don't think Zakopalova wins the match, but I do think she has a chance to at least make it competitive and so I will take the games in this one.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Klara Zakopalova + 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: + 16.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 45.28% Yield)