Tennis Picks 2023 (July 21st)

A couple of early winners got the day off to a solid start, but the Jordan Thompson pick was a really poor one, although that is mainly down to the final result than the actual identification of a selection.

The Australian just had a really tough day in the office and these things can happen on a tennis court.

Overall it was at least another positive step forward after a really bad start to the week, but there is still more room for improvement with the tournaments entering the Quarter Final Round on Friday.

Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 games v Hamad Medjedovic: A couple of days ago I was tempted to back Hamad Medjedovic to get the better of Dominic Thiem in the Second Round in Gstaad, but ultimately thought the odds were just about right and the value might not have been there.

That did prove to be a wrong decision on the day, although the young Serb, who had celebrated his 20th birthday the day before, battled back after dropping the second set to beat the former Grand Slam Champion.

It is a result that has been part of a big week for Hamad Medjedovic, although this is going to be another tough test for him in the Quarter Final. You might not think that after beating Dominic Thiem, who has reached the French Open Final at his best, but you also have to accept that the Austrian is still finding his way back on the Tour after injury.

This is not going to be the case for Yannick Hanfmann, who also needed three sets to win his Second Round match. The World Number 46 could seen reach a new career best World Ranking and a win in this Quarter Final will go a long way in doing that for Hanfmann, who has been a comfortable clay courter in his time on the Tour.

Beating those he has been expected to has been key to the rise up the World Rankings for Yannick Hanfmann who has a 16-3 record on the clay courts when playing opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. The numbers produced in those nineteen matches have been very impressive with Hanfmann holding 85% of service games and breaking in 38% of return games, although one of those losses came in the final Qualifying Round at Roland Garros before Yannick Hanfmann was given a Lucky Loser spot.

Yannick Hanfmann obviously would not have covered this line in those three defeats against players outside of the top 100, but he has overcome the line in the sixteen wins. He has lost just two sets in the victories and Hamad Medjedovic has already played a lot of tennis in Gstaad this week after coming through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw.

Hamad Medjedovic has two top 100 wins on the clay this week, but he was just 1-4 in those matches on the red dirt in 2023 prior to the run to the Quarter Final here. The numbers have made for tough reading with the Medjedovic serve being attacked and the pick here is that Yannick Hanfmann has enough to win and cover this line set.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-10, - 3.26 Units (38 Units Staked, - 8.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 21st)

The weather in London reached ridiculous heights on Tuesday and it certainly meant I did not want to be on a laptop or computer any longer than I needed to be.

After the day for the Tennis Picks, it was easy for me to take a day off to recover.

Bad luck seemed to be flying all over the place over the first couple of days of this week and I needed the mental break of a day off just to cool down (mentally and physically).

What a day- I will make no excuses for the Cristian Garin and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman picks- but I have struggled to accept some of the other selections and the way in which they were undone.

Laslo Djere won his first set 6-1 and was up 4-2 in the second set having held onto serve all the way at that point of the match, but somehow was beaten 6-1, 6-7, 3-6.

Thiago Monteiro played poorly, but did have his chances in the second set which would have seen him cover.

Fabio Fognini was leading 6-3 after set one and looked to have momentum having recovered from a break down in the second set before once again losing focus.

Jaume Munar won the first set with a double break, but lost the second having dropped serve twice more than his opponent and then waited until the cover was impossible before winning four games in a row to secure the match.

And worst of all, Marc-Andrea Huesler who led 7-6, 5-4, 40/0 on serve and having not faced a Break Point in the match... Amazingly he failed to serve it out and ultimately lost the match.

Honestly it is tough to take a day like that when so many seemed to blow strong positions and it was frustrating to say the least.

While it likely means a losing week, I am expecting much better through the remainder of this week and month to back up what had been a solid grass court season.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players met in the Quarter Final in Umag twelve months ago and both were Seeded.

Back then Filip Krajinovic was the Number 3 Seed, but Carlos Alcaraz was the Number 7 Seed and Number 73 in the World Rankings... Now he is playing in Hamburg as the top Seed in the draw and the World Number 6 to underline the kind of progress that Alcaraz has made on the Tour.

Earlier this season he was playing like the World Number 1 and it was telling that so many were tipping Carlos Alcaraz to truly announce himself to a wider public by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ultimately he was narrowly beaten in the Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz will be someone to watch out for at the US Open next month and especially if he can produce some confidence boosting tennis in the build towards that event.

The Spaniard is a confident hard court player, but the tournament in Hamburg will help build the Ranking, while Carlos Alcaraz has made it clear that his main ambition for the season is making sure he is playing in his first ATP Finals. He is well on course for that and I think Carlos Alcaraz will be all the better for the challenging win in the First Round having produced some of the best clay court numbers of any player on the Tour in 2022.

The Quarter Final win over Filip Krajinovic in Umag was far from easy last season, but Carlos Alcaraz has moved past the Serb who is an inconsistent clay court player. Filip Krajinovic had a solid win over Sebastian Baez in the First Round, but the latter had a deep run in Bastad and I think that ultimately made the difference in the match.

I do think this is going to be a much tougher match for Krajinovic who has not really returned as well as he would have liked on the clay courts with breaks in just 18% of return games played. Filip Krajinovic will likely feel the pressure on his own serve against a player like Carlos Alcaraz who wins plenty of return points and who has broken in 33% of return games played on this surface this season.

Carlos Alcaraz has improved on the Tour mainly because of his serve and I expect a much better performance on this side of his tennis than we saw in the First Round. He has been winning 65% of service points behind his serve on the clay courts and I think that will also build the pressure on Filip Krajinovic and to a higher extent than when they met last season.

It is a big spread to cover, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be much better than he was in the First Round and he has the return game to cover the mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Bernarda Pera - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 18-22)

The FA Cup Semi Final matches are to be played on Saturday and Sunday this week, but the Premier League is also entering its penultimate round of the season as GW37 begins on Saturday afternoon.

The four teams involved in the Semi Final have had their League matches pushed back to Tuesday and Wednesday and then the final games of the 2019/20 season will be played at the same time on Sunday. There is still plenty to play for at both the top and bottom of the table, but the tight window to fit in all the football needed to complete the season does mean that there is more thinking time for players to analyse what kind of results they need to achieve their ambitions for the campaign.

I am not sure that is helping or hindering, but teams are responding to the pressure in a better way than I may have imagined. That also goes for the Championship where Leeds United are a point away from securing their place back in the Premier League after a long absence and both West Brom and Brentford are still fighting to join them.


This week the top four race in the Premier League will see Leicester City try and set the standard for the results when they play on the same day Manchester United face Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi Final. A win for Leicester City will mean a draw on the final day is likely to be enough to earn a Champions League spot, but they face Tottenham Hotspur who are desperately trying to earn their spot in the Europa League.

Later this week Manchester United and Chelsea have big Premier League games to try and put themselves in commanding spots for the top four places too and there is a feeling the Cup Semi Final may give the winning team the momentum and the losing team in a poor spot going into the final week of the Premier League season.


Down the bottom both Bournemouth and Aston Villa may look at their remaining fixture list and believe the 'great escape' is still on. They've both earned big points over the last week and in their final home games they will be chasing wins that will put some serious pressure on the loser of the big West Ham United versus Watford game which is played on Friday night.

Watford need the win more on that evening with Manchester City and Arsenal to round out the season and that would also potentially leave a huge West Ham United versus Aston Villa clash to come on the final day of the season.


Things will definitely be a lot, lot clearer by the time this penultimate round of fixtures are completed- it is also a big round for those chasing points in the Fantasy Football game and I will have more thoughts on that below.

Before that you can read my thoughts on the upcoming Premier League games and the two FA Cup Semi Final matches below.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Mikel Arteta has some inside knowledge of Manchester City, but passing that on to players that are clearly not as good as those that Pep Guardiola can call upon doesn't mean an awful lot.

Arteta's Arsenal team did start brightly when these teams met last month, but Manchester City ended up warming up to the task and were comfortable 3-0 winners at the Etihad Stadium. They were aided massively that day by David Luiz who made a mistake to allow Raheem Sterling in for the opener and was then sent off while giving away a penalty early in the second half.

Since the opening two games of the resumption, Arsenal have won 5 of 7 games in all competitions. However you do have to worry about the amount of chances they have given up in the last couple of games and I am not going to read too much into a very fortunate win over a Liverpool team that have seemingly come off the boil since winning the title.

The Gunners can't rely on that this weekend when facing Manchester City who have rested some key players and have been creating chances for fun. They were not at their best in the 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday, but Manchester City should have the confidence of Aymeric Laporte back in the team, while a fully rested Kevin De Bruyne is a real threat to Arsenal.

Kevin De Bruyne has already scored three times against Arsenal this season and I do think Manchester City are going to have large periods of control in this one.

Arsenal have been clinical in front of goal and have players who can produce the stunning finish, but defensively there are holes. They are going to need Manchester City to be as wasteful in front of goal as Liverpool were to have any chance, but I think that is a long shot.

Manchester City have beaten Arsenal 7 times in a row and I simply can't see that run ending here. All of those wins have come by two or more goal margins including a 3-0 win in the League Cup Final in 2018 and I do think the defending FA Cup Winners will have too much on the day.

I have to respect the fact that Arsenal have managed to stay in games where they have been put under intense pressure, but this Manchester City have been blowing past teams when they get the wind in their sails. I would worry for Arsenal if they concede first and I will back Manchester City to win by two or more goals in the first of the FA Cup Semi Finals to be played this weekend.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: The second Semi Final in the FA Cup this weekend looks to be a very competitive affair, although you can understand the reasons Manchester United are favourites to win this one.

They have beaten Chelsea in all 3 meetings in 2019/20 and Manchester United have found goals fairly easy to come by in those wins. They are also unbeaten in 6 against Chelsea since losing to them in the FA Cup Final at the end of the 2017/18 season, while Manchester United are unbeaten in 19 in all competitions and their last 12 away from Old Trafford.

Chelsea have been in anything but poor form having won 8 of their last 10 in all competitions, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 away from Stamford Bridge. A bigger worry is the amount of goals conceded in those games (8) and if the recovery time between games was the same for both clubs I would really like Manchester United to win this one.

I still give the favourites the edge, but I don't think it should be underestimated the advantage Chelsea potentially have with the way the schedule has worked out.

The Blues played at home on Tuesday, but Manchester United have had to travel down to London on Thursday and then return to Manchester before making another long journey down to the capital on Sunday. This comes at the end of a week when Manchester United also played on Monday night and there have been one or two signs of fatigue in a squad that has been heavily relying on their starting eleven.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can't really freshen up the team in the way he would like without weakening the starting eleven, but he will be confident his attacking players are performing well enough to expose Chelsea's soft underbelly.

However, it has to be noted that Chelsea are playing well going forward themselves and they managed to give some key players a bit of rest in their 1-0 win over Norwich City.

Neither manager is likely to play a cautious style and I do think the amount of football being played over the last month will have an affect in this one. The key for Manchester United is to get on the front foot early and make Chelsea open up, while Frank Lampard may want to ride out the early storm with the expectation that his team will likely have more in the legs the longer this game goes.

You can't ignore how well Manchester United have seemingly matched up with Chelsea this season, although the results have perhaps been a little harsh on the West London club. 10 of the last 16 FA Cup Semi Finals have ended with at least three goals shared out and both Manchester United and Chelsea have produced plenty of positive attacking football over the last month coupled with some iffy performances at the back to believe this could be the latest Semi Final to trend in the goals direction.

I still give Manchester United a narrow lean, but the scheduling alarms me and instead I will back goals to be the outcome of the second Semi Final.


Norwich City v Burnley Pick: It has been a hard month for Norwich City who have shown very little fight to avoid the drop.

This isn't down to a lack of effort, but Norwich City have simply been short of quality at either ends of the pitch at this level. They don't create enough chances and they don't defend well enough and ultimately that is not a recipe that will enable a team to avoid relegation.

Norwich City have lost all 4 Premier League games played here since the three month break and they have not scored in any of those. There haven't been a lot of chances for them, although they are facing a Burnley team who have been giving up some big opportunities without being punished.

Confidence is flowing in the away dressing room as they have battled through difficult moments to find big results. Burnley are unbeaten in 3 away Premier League games and have kept 2 clean sheets in that time so the feeling is that they will be a little too good for Norwich City in this one too.

Burnley have recently won at Crystal Palace and West Ham United and in the last three seasons they do have a 3-4-2 record away from home against those clubs that have been relegated. This season they have won at three of the five clubs that are sitting immediately above Norwich City and been unbeaten in the other League games.

The squad is stretched by injury, but I still think there is enough quality from set pieces that could give Burnley the edge here. I would expect Norwich City to put in a huge effort to end their losing run in the League in their final home game, but they have simply not been up to task of late and Burnley securing a narrow win looks the most likely outcome of this one.


Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: There is plenty more on the line for Bournemouth compared with Southampton in this South Coast derby, but the home team are going to get anything but an easy ride.

Despite having little to play for, Southampton have been playing with verve and attacking intent and that has helped produce a 5 game unbeaten run. They are also unbeaten in 4 away from St Mary's and have played their best football away from their own Stadium, while Southampton look to be creating chances for fun at the moment.

An injury hit Bournemouth defence is going to struggle to contain them if Southampton are anything near the standards they set in draws at Everton and Manchester United. With Danny Ings still hoping to chase down the Golden Boot I do think Southampton are going to provide plenty of threat here.

However, Southampton are far from watertight at the back and that has to be encouragement for Bournemouth who likely need two wins from their remaining two Premier League games if they are going to avoid the drop.

Eddie Howe will feel there is every chance Bournemouth can do that having seen his team impress against Leicester City and Manchester City over the last eight days. The team look to have suddenly have been given a huge shot of confidence and Bournemouth are producing the kind of attacking threat which had seemingly disappeared down the stretch.

A bit of good fortune helped on their way to the win over Leicester City last weekend, but that has encouraged the players and I do think Bournemouth will get forward and attack this game.

Everything is pointing to goals even though the South Coast derby at the Vitality Stadium has tended to be tighter affairs than the fixture played at St Mary's. Earlier this season four goals were shared out when these teams met at Southampton which means the last 3 at St Mary's have ended with three or more goals shared out, but the last 2 here have finished up with low-scoring draws being the outcome.

The situation should make this an open game and both teams have been creating plenty of chances to believe we will see goals here.


Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City Pick: This is a huge game for both Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City who are both aiming for European competition next season. At least Leicester City are secured of playing in the Europa League, but Brendan Rodgers and his team are hoping for a Champions League berth, while Tottenham Hotspur are desperate to at least be playing in the Europa League.

Both teams had impressive wins during the week against Newcastle United and Sheffield United respectively, but I think both Jose Mourinho and Brendan Rodgers know this will be a much more difficult outing for their teams.

Chances may not be flowing in this fixture, but I do have to give the edge to Tottenham Hotspur who are playing at home.

Tottenham Hotspur have won their last 3 games here and deservedly so and now host a Leicester City who have lost 4 of their last 7 away games in all competitions and failed to win any of those. The absence of James Maddison is a real blow for Leicester City, although Jamie Vardy will be confident his pace can hurt an ageing Tottenham Hotspur back line.

Ultimately Leicester City have not been creating a lot of chances away from home of late and if you take away the nine goals scored at Southampton you would note they have only scored 22 goals in 17 away games.

In recent matches this is a team struggling to create good chances in the final third and Tottenham Hotspur have defended well enough at home to believe they can at least contain their visitors.

Jose Mourinho's tactics can be difficult to watch at times, but Tottenham Hotspur have created decent chances in their last 3 home games. They have won all 3 and the win at Newcastle United will have continued the good feeling around the club who can put the pressure on those around them by winning on Sunday.

Tottenham Hotspur have won their last 2 home games against Leicester City and they might have a narrow edge in this one. I just think Spurs are creating the better chances of the two teams of late and having home advantage may be enough to secure a narrow win here.


Brighton v Newcastle United Pick: There isn't as much on the line in this fixture as the thinking may have been back in August, but both Brighton and Newcastle United have performed well enough to earn their spot in the Premier League.

Brighton are not mathematically safe just yet, but they have a vasty superior goal difference to Aston Villa and Bournemouth and it would be a stunning turn of events that would send them down now.

That should give the players some freedom and Graham Potter has refused to change the style with his team looking to get forward and play enterprising football. It has been effective at bringing more entertainment for the fans, but Brighton have not been as strong defensively as they were under Chris Hughton.

However, the attacking style will work well against a Newcastle United team who have achieved all they can and who have looked shaky at the back in the last couple of weeks. Injuries have been piling up and Steve Bruce may already be thinking about the improvements he will need to make for the squad to perhaps push on next season.

At least his team have still looked a threat going forward and they will likely find some spaces to exploit too in a game that could be more entertaining than most would believe. Newcastle United have scored goals aplenty since the restart (at least when they are not facing Manchester City) and they do have players who can make a big difference for them.

Both teams should find a way to hit the net so the attacking players could be interesting 'cheaper' choices for those playing the Fantasy game. I honestly would not be surprised if we see at least three goals produced with a 2-1 scoreline either way looking the most likely outcome of the fixture.


Sheffield United v Everton Pick: It might have been a disappointing 2-0 defeat at the King Power Stadium for Sheffield United, but Chris Wilder and the squad know it is not one that has ended their chances of playing European Football for the first time. They have to respond on Monday when they host Everton, but there is every chance they can do that when you consider some of the levels produced by Carlo Ancelotti's men over the last couple of weeks.

Reaching acceptable standards is the minimum Chris Wilder accepts at Sheffield United and I do expect a reaction from his team to their defeat at Leicester City.

The Blades will work hard and they might have too much intensity for Everton, especially at home. Sheffield United had won 3 of their previous 4 Premier League games before the loss to Leicester City, while they have won 4 home League games in succession and have looked very good in doing that.

I expect Sheffield United will have the better of the chances in this one and their visitors have just had a few issues at the back which have been exposed since their win over Leicester City. Everton have been conceding far too many chances and I do think the home team can expose those problems.

To make matters tougher for Everton, they have lost some consistency going forward and breaking down Sheffield United has been a tough task for many this season. The side have lost 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games and Everton have not scored in their last 2 on their travels.

The one concern for Sheffield United is that they have not always been clinical in the final third- the first goal will be huge in this fixture, but I do think Chris Wilder will have his team coming out with a lot more intensity than Everton and that can see them control the fixture and produce a big win.

All signs are pointing towards the home team being the more likely winner, although the last few games in any Premier League season can produce some surprising results. The pressure is on Sheffield United to win the game if they want to earn a place in the Europa League, but I think Chris Wilder will have them ready to produce.


Wolves v Crystal Palace Pick: Roy Hodgson will not want his Crystal Palace team to end the season with eight straight Premier League losses, but injuries are piling up at the back and this is a team who do not score a lot of goals to make up for that.

In their last 6 defeats, Crystal Palace have conceded at least twice in 5 of those. Their last 3 away defeats have all come by two or more goal margins at Liverpool, Leicester City and Aston Villa and the squad is stretched.

This should be the kind of game that Wolves take advantage of, although it does have to be said that Nuno Espirito Santo's team can be one that works hard and doesn't really blow teams away. They dropped two points last week at Burnley, but Wolves have had time to prepare for this fixture and they have won 4 of their last 6 at home.

The 3-0 win over Everton was helped by goals either side of half time, but Wolves will be confident they can create chances against a Crystal Palace team who have struggled at the back. Crystal Palace have been giving up some big chances through the last month and away from home they have really been struggling which can be exposed by Wolves.

The home team will have to bare their teeth and make sure they don't allow Crystal Palace to hang around when they can become very dangerous with nothing to lose.

I do believe Wolves can do that though with Raul Jimenez back amongst the goals and Crystal Palace slumping towards the end of the season. Wolves have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 at home in all competitions and they have largely been able to contain their opponents.

Now they face a Crystal Palace team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 Premier League games including in each of the last 3 away from home. You can never discount the likes of Wilfried Zaha or Andros Townsend doing something special to change that, but Wolves have largely defended very well and I think they are more likely to win this game with a clean sheet to boot.


Watford v Manchester City Pick: After winning the domestic treble last season, Manchester City are 'only' going to win one of the three trophies they compete for in England this time around. It is a hugely disappointing season, but Pep Guardiola will be reminding his players that there is still the huge prize of the Champions League on offer.

The defeat to Arsenal in the FA Cup Semi Final is a huge blow for Manchester City and the final two Premier League games is a chance to earn some momentum before the Champions League resumes. They didn't play badly against Arsenal, but the attacking play was largely predictable and defensively Manchester City continue to offer out chances to opponents.

Away from home they have really begun to struggle with 4 losses in their last 6 games played away from the Etihad Stadium.

However no one can take anything for granted against Manchester City who have been creating plenty of chances and who thumped Brighton 0-5 at the Amex Stadium in their last away Premier League game.

Watford know all about the kind of devastating attacking football Manchester City can play having lost 4 of the last 7 against them by five or more goal margins. Even hosting the game at Vicarage Road hasn't helped much with 4 losses in a row to Manchester City and those coming by a 2-15 margin.

The home team have won back to back games here, but they were behind to both Norwich City and Newcastle United and recovering from a goal down against Manchester City is a completely different kettle of fish. Nigel Pearson will also have been disgusted to see the level produced in Watford's 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Friday evening and will know that it simply is not going to be good enough against a team as powerful as Manchester City.

Nigel Pearson may get a break if Manchester City make big changes to the starting eleven, but I expect a strong team to be selected as Pep Guardiola looks for a big response to the Cup defeat. They should be able to expose the issues Watford have had at the back, although the home team could play their part with the pace they have in the final third and with Troy Deeney up front.

Even then it is a big ask for Watford to contain Manchester City and I think they will be too good on the day. They have responded to their last 4 defeats by winning the next game by at least two goals and I would expect the visitors to be a little more clinical in the final third which can set them on the way to a comfortable win here.


[UPDATE] Since writing this preview the surprising news out of Vicarage Road was that Nigel Pearson was being sacked with two games left. It is very difficult to know how the players will respond over the last week of the season, while most fans and neutrals will feel the decision is very harsh on Pearson.

Ultimately Watford have usually made the right choices when it comes to changing direction with their manager, but this is going to be a tight finish. There was clearly some real disappointment in the performance at at West Ham United and Watford may need help to survive the drop considering which two opponents they have left.

We may see a big reaction from the home team with a new voice to listen to, but even now I would be surprised if Manchester City don't dominate the game and prove too strong when all is said and done.


Aston Villa v Arsenal Pick: This is not an easy game to get a read on, but it looks like being one that is arguably more important for Aston Villa than Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta's men are desperate to return to European competition, but results have gone against them over the last two weeks and they may effectively be out of contention by the time this fixture kicks off. That would mean the focus is on the FA Cup and it is not out of the question that Arteta will rotate his first eleven who have put in a huge effort to see off Liverpool and Manchester City in back to back games.

Those are impressive wins at any time of the season, but Arsenal have not been dominant and perhaps been fortunate to have won both games. In terms of chances they have been dominated, but Arsenal do have clinical attacking players who have to be respected.

They are players who can cause a host of problems for Aston Villa, although I do think Dean Smith's team have defended much better this side of the three month break. 4 points from the last 6 available has given Aston Villa a shot in the arm in their fight against relegation and this is a team who have been creating chances and perhaps deserved more points than they have earned.

A part of the problem is that Aston Villa do not have a striker who can be relied upon to score the chances that do come their way, but I think they have players who can give Arsenal something to think about.

If Arsenal are perhaps just a little fatigued from the efforts put into the last two games, Aston Villa can take advantage here. They should be rested having last played on Thursday and Aston Villa have created chances against opponents at Villa Park while getting ready to face an Arsenal team who have looked vulnerable at the back despite the positive results earned.

Arsenal did win 3 away games in a row before the defeat at Tottenham Hotspur and they are a team who have world class talents in the final third that don't need too many good looks to score goals. That is a concern for Aston Villa, but I think the home team have been playing well down the stretch and can at least earn a point which should give themselves every chance of avoiding the drop as we enter the final weekend of the 2019/20 season.


Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: There were a couple of changes made to the Manchester United team to try and freshen things up, but tactically Ole Gunnar Solskjaer looked to have got things wrong in their FA Cup Semi Final defeat to Chelsea on Sunday.

A change in system simply removed some of the attacking intent we have seen from Manchester United in recent weeks, but the defeat will be put to the back of the fans' minds if they can win this fixture. A win would put Manchester United in command of a top four place with a single game left to play and a big win would really put the side in a very strong spot ahead of the final game at Leicester City.

The first port of call for Manchester United will be making sure they win the game though and not to worry about the margin of victory. At Old Trafford Manchester United have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that has to be encouraging for the players as they look to bounce back from a poor performance.

David De Gea will be hoping to be given a chance to redeem himself after being to blame for the first two Chelsea goals on Sunday, but the attacking players should all be restored to the starting eleven. That is important for Manchester United who have to take the game to a West Ham United team whose back to back wins might have kept them in the Premier League.

The Premier League status could be officially confirmed without West Ham United needing to kick another ball if Aston Villa fail to beat Arsenal, but regardless David Moyes looks to have guided the team out of trouble.

In recent games West Ham United have looked menacing going forward, but there are still holes defensively which should be exposed by Manchester United. The Hammers may have nothing to lose, but that may also mean a slight drop in intensity and they are a team who do allow teams to build up some steam and create important chances against them.

Manchester United have won 3 in a row at home against West Ham United and I think they will be grateful for having this game on Wednesday. There have been one or two signs of some fatigue as the run of games might have taken a toll on what has been a small squad that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer looks to trust, but I do think there is enough in the final third for Manchester United to win this game well.

I think it is fair to believe West Ham United will cause some problems with their own talented threat in the final third, but ultimately I think Manchester United bounce back from the defeat on Sunday. The home team might have too many goals for West Ham United and I think Manchester United win by at least two goals.


Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: There has been a slight drop in intensity in the Liverpool team since they won the Premier League title, but I do think some of the results have been a little harsh on them. They have dominated both Burnley and Arsenal in their last two League games, but a combination of poor finishing and strong goalkeeping has restricted the amount of goals Liverpool have been able to score.

To make matters worse, Liverpool have not defended very well with mistakes being punished at the back.

However, Jurgen Klopp has to believe his team are still playing at a good enough level to win a game like this one. He will be looking for his players to produce a performance fitting of a day on which Liverpool will pick up the top flight League trophy for the first time in thirty years and the players are well rested compared with Chelsea.

Liverpool last played a week ago and Chelsea just had a tough FA Cup Semi Final to complete on Sunday, although the win will have given Frank Lampard's team a spring in their step.

With Leicester City crushed just down the road at Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea are now one win from securing their Champions League spot for the 2020/21 season. Frank Lampard would love to ease the tension on the final day by winning this fixture, and Chelsea have long had a decent record at Anfield before being beaten here last season.

Chelsea do produce an attacking threat away from home which will have to be respected, but they have been struggling defensively and that has to encourage Liverpool here.

The first goal feels like it would be very important on the day and I do think Liverpool are playing better than their results suggest. They are creating chances and I would expect the home team to do that against this vulnerable Chelsea defence, while the occasion should be one that Liverpool enjoy with their trophy presentation coming at the end of the fixture.

It should be a decent game, but I think Liverpool will have the edge and can end their 2019/20 season at Anfield in a manner fitting the rest of the campaign.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Bournemouth-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
Sheffield United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves Win to Nil
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 37+

Every week I make a transfer I do look back and wonder if it was the right decision and the two made last week have turned out to be the correct choices.

Raul Jimenez did indeed get on the scoresheet as I was concerned about, but Roberto Firmino continues to be well off the pace. Replacing both with Danny Ings and Gabriel Jesus turned out to be good moves as both scored and combined for 15 points, while Captaining Anthony Martial continues to give me good returns.

It was another decent enough week for the Fantasy team selected, although I did miss out on Manchester United's clean sheet at Crystal Palace which hurt. I can't complain too much though and I have a team that looks capable going into GW37+ and knowing I have the Free Hit Chip to come in the final week of the season.

I already have some ideas as to who I am going to target in the final GW, but that will come in the next post.

My one transfer in GW37+ will be used and one of the two players I am likely to drop are either Michail Antonio or Christian Pulisic despite both being in good form.

It will mean losing out on some money if I want to bring them back for GW38+, but I am not overly concerned about that and those are two high priced investments played at Old Trafford and Anfield respectively. Instead I am looking to make sure I upgrade the spot with some names already in the reckoning.

Jack Grealish intrigued me in a home game against Arsenal who will have played a big Cup game on Saturday while Aston Villa were resting. He has looked threatening in recent games and is close to breaking his run without a goal, while Arsenal might already be out of Europa League contention if results have gone against them.

Another young Englishman who could pay off is Phil Foden, although I am a touch concerned that the majority of his recent minutes have come in home games. He hasn't made a big impact in the last two of those compared with the early games out of the restart, so instead an additional Manchester City threat could come from David Silva.

The veteran Spaniard has started three of the last four Premier League games, but second guessing Pep Guardiola is hard enough from his press conferences the day before matches, let alone after a FA Cup Semi Final ahead of which the deadline for GW37+ has already closed.

Looking at my thoughts for the weekend games, David Brooks could provide a telling difference- as well as Southampton have been playing, they are vulnerable at the back and you would have to think Bournemouth are going to be forced into going all out for the win regardless of the result on Friday between West Ham United and Watford. Brooks scored against Manchester City as a substitute and has to be given a start here, although the better option from that team could be Junior Stanislas who is a potential penalty taker if Josh King is not on the pitch.

Junior Stanislas has looked a more consistent attacking threat in the minutes he has been getting for Bournemouth and might be a decent option in the hope the game with Southampton develops into the attacking one expected on paper.

Another game which has the potential for an attacking fixture is the Brighton versus Newcastle United fixture on Monday evening- both look to be safe and neither have defended well, while offering a decent threat in the final third.

I have Dwight Gayle starting this week with that in mind, but Leandro Trossard could be a major threat for the home team in that one.

As you can see, I am targeting these mid-range midfielders because I don't have the funds to go big, but I do think those all have chances of decent returns and certainly more than I expect from Pulisic or Antonio. If I don't pick David Silva, I can keep Christian Pulisic in the squad and have him down as my first sub against a Liverpool team who have not looked completely focused in their last few Premier League games.

It will mean a strong looking eleven on paper and once again I will stick with the Manchester United options in the Captaincy and Vice-Captaincy positions. The risk is that they play the Cup Semi Final first, but it would be a huge disappointment if both Anthony Martial and Bruno Fernandes are missing on Wednesday.

The importance of the top four race should mean both start if they are to play any part in the fixture against a West Ham United team who might have secured Premier League Football before the game kicks off. David Moyes' team have been looking a little better defensively, but this is a very good Manchester United attack being faced and Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Newcastle United have all managed at least two goals against The Hammers.

Manchester United have scored at least twice in their last 6 Premier League games since the draw at Tottenham Hotspur and their attacking options look much more secure as starters than the Manchester City players selected, even though they love demolishing Watford.

My starting eleven for GW37+ is likely to be this one:

Alisson (Liverpool v Chelsea)

Harry Maguire (Manchester United v West Ham United)

Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool v Chelsea)

Willy Boly (Wolves v Crystal Palace)

Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City v Watford)

Anthony Martial (Manchester United v West Ham United)
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United v West Ham United)
*Midfielder- lean is towards Bournemouth, but there is time until the deadline and I will have that final choice up on Twitter*

Dwight Gayle (Newcastle United v Brighton)

Danny Ings (Southampton v Bournemouth)

Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City v Watford)

Bench: Emiliano Martinez, Christian Pulisic, James Justin, Federico Fernandez

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 21st)

I am spending the day away from the computer as I’ve booked tickets for an event which takes place this afternoon, but I did manage to research the Tennis Picks for Saturday’s Semi Finals.

It has proven to be a difficult week for the Picks after a poor Friday with the Quarter Final matches letting me down.

However I am going back to the well with one player who did secure a win for me on Friday and who is on the brink of a second clay court title on the main Tour in 2018. Marco Cecchinato is still perhaps a little overrated thanks to a great run at the French Open, but he has been playing well enough to win his Semi Final at the kind of level this tournament in Unag is operating at.

This has not been a deep field and I do like Cecchinato today as my sole pick from the Semi Final matches to be played.

I am having to write this out on a mobile today so unfortunately the thread has a different feel to normal but I will be back to the usual feel tomorrow. If I’m back before this match begins I will update the weekly totals too.


MY PICK: Marco Cecchinato - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2018- Oleksandr Usyk vs Murat Gassiev (July 21st)

2018 has been a really good year for Boxing fans but the best fight we may get to see in the calendar year may be the Cruiserweight Final of the World Boxing Super Series.

That is a big shout when you think Canelo vs GGG 2 is yet to take place and I have no doubt that may produce the bigger numbers, but this Cruiserweight Final looks really good and features two boxers who could be mixing with the big boys of the Heavyweight Division.

The winner absolutely will be propelled into a big time title shot at Heavyweight within eighteen months, while whoever loses will have the time to rebuild considering the performances produced in the World Boxing Super Series.


There was some scepticism about how the tournament would work in practice when it was first announced, especially as previous tournaments had not really worked as well as the organisers had hoped. But the Cruiserweight and Super Middleweight events were strong and it has all led to this moment as the first of those tournaments is concluded.

The success has whetted the appetite of the fans and the announcement of two very good looking fields at Bantamweight and Light Welterweight is only further good news for the fans. I am writing this before the Draft Gala has been completed, but I think both tournaments are going to set up some huge fights over the next twelve months which is great news for us Boxing fans.


The Usyk-Gassiev fight absolutely is stealing the headlines, but Liam Smith is also in action this weekend as he takes on Jaime Munguia for the WBO Light Middleweight World Title. Smith is a former holder of that belt and has some huge fights in front of him if he can upset Munguia who announced himself in a big way by hammering Sadam Ali back in May.

Munguia is clearly looking to fulfil his mandatory and then take up some huge fights in a stacked Division, but Smith has every chance of upsetting the odds in my opinion. Beefy has already spoken about fighting at Anfield and defending a World Title there, but I don't think he is overlooking the man in front of him and Munguia still has a lot to prove before people really have to accept he is for real.

Fedor Chudinov vs Nadjib Mohammedi

One of the main undercard bouts for the Usyk-Gassiev card features a former World Champion in Fedor Chudinov defending his WBA International Title against an opponent who has mixed in some very prestigious company.

Nadjib Mohammedi has fought the likes of Sergey Kovalev and Oleksandr Gvozdyk at Light Heavyweight, but he is coming back down in weight to take on Chudinov at Super Middleweight.

The last three fights Mohammedi has had have been back down at Super Middleweight, but this is another step up from the kind of level he has been operating at.

Chudinov is best known in the United Kingdom for being stopped by George Groves for the WBA World Title but he has come back strong and this kind of level is one on which he is comfortable. I am not sure Chudinov will ever be a World Champion in what has traditionally been a tough Division, but a win will get him back into position to have another shot perhaps against the World Boxing Super Series winner and a rematch against George Groves or even a chance to take on new Regular Champion Rocky Fielding.

I think the Russian will be able to win this fight on home soil and I think Mohammedi has found it tough when he has taken the step up in competition. Being stopped by the likes of Kovalev and Gvozdyk is no shame for any boxer, but that does mean four of his five losses have come with a stoppage and Chudinov has enough pop to do the same.

I will be having a small interest in Chudinov getting it done inside the distance in this undercard bout.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Murat Gassiev

This has to be the most exciting fight of the year as the World Boxing Super Series Cruiserweight tournament comes to a close with the potential to unify all four titles in this Division.

This will be the second Division which has all the belts being held by one fighter having seen Terence Crawford do the same at Light Welterweight earlier in the year, but the potential for the winner of Oleksandr Usyk and Murat Gassiev is arguably even bigger than Crawford's.

Ultimately the Heavyweight Division is the star Division in Boxing and the winner of this one will propel themselves into that Division and into the big fights from the off.

I'm guessing most Boxing fans are feeling what Usyk did before his Semi Final against Mairis Briedes.

'I am feel. I am very feel'.

No one will be underestimating Murat Gassiev who has had two impressive wins to move into the Final himself and the closer the fight has come the more people seem to have fallen behind the young Russian. Being trained alongside Gennady Golovkin has only helped Gassiev who has all the tools to come back even if he was to lose this fight.

With that in mind I do feel there is more on the line for Usyk who has to be a road warrior for the third time in this tournament and being Ukrainian will be put under more pressure by the Russian home crowd. I don't think that will bother Usyk at all and I think he is the all around superior boxer, although Gassiev may have the edge when it comes to the power stakes.

Usyk is the older man and it will be that much tougher to rebuild with a strong reputation he has from the amateurs when opponents simply won't want to fight him coming off a loss. He still has time to do that, but I think it will be 'easier' for Gassiev to bounce back and that additional motivation for Usyk may just tip him over the edge in what looks like being a 'Fight of the Year contender'.

The layers are finding it hard to split the fighters now and I think it will come down to one of two scenarios.

Either Gassiev finds the big punches to slow down Usyk and stop him late or I think the Ukrainian will just use his superior angles and shot selection to just pepper Gassiev back and win this one on points.

Controversy is a concern with a Ukrainian fighting in Moscow and all the political tensions between the two countries, but I think the World Boxing Super Series banner will erase the chance of a 'dodgy scorecard' from ruining what has been a fabulous tournament.

My feeling from day one of this tournament was that it was a coming out party for Usyk before the move up to Heavyweight to take on the really big challenges out there. I still lean towards him, although Gassiev has arguably been the most impressive fighter in the tournament and I think Usyk does enough to win this one on points.

However I will just back him to win the fight in any way at odds against.

Jaime Munguia vs Liam Smith

The WBO Light Middleweight Title is on the line in Las Vegas as Jaime Munguia defends the Title he won by hammering Sadam Ali back in May.

It should have been Liam Smith taking on Ali, but the British fighter had to pull out just two weeks before the event and Munguia took full advantage.

That was the end of a remarkable month for the young Mexican who was deemed 'not worthy' to fight Gennady Golovkin for the Middleweight Title in replacement of Canelo Alvarez. He then showed enough against Ali to really raise his stock and now he is a huge favourite to beat Liam Smith, far shorter than he was against Ali when he was a slight underdog.

I am not sure I buy into that just yet.

Liam Smith may not be a world beater, but he is a former World Champion and his one loss has come against Canelo. He hasn't exactly lit things up since then with his three wins, especially as two of them were very close against Liam Williams.

In saying that he is the toughest fight Munguia would have had and I think Beefy is not as big an underdog as the layers think he should be.

This is the toughest test Munguia would have had and I am not going to anoint him the next big thing in boxing for obliterating what was effectively a Welterweight at Light Middle. I expect Smith to weather an early storm and then perhaps see a tired Munguia down the stretch struggling once his power is perhaps not what it was and I will back the Liverpudlian to once again become a World Champion.

MY PICKS: Fedor Chudinov to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oleksandr Usyk @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Liam Smith @ 7.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 17-32, + 4.90 Units (75 Units Staked, + 6.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 21st)

I've just had a few things to do on Thursday which means I am not able to produce the full breakdowns of the Tennis Picks from the Quarter Final matches that are scheduled for Friday.

For this thread I will simply put the picks down below and I should be back with a proper thread for the Semi Final matches as long as I have any picks from those matches.


MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.72 Units (18 Units Staked, + 9.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 21st)

The Canadian Masters and Premier Event are being played next week rather than in August and the timing of the event has seen a number of the big names decide to pull out of the event. While many of the top Singles players will be taking part at the Olympic Games, others have decided that this change in their usual schedule is not worth undertaking and the event, particularly the ATP event, has taken a big hit in star power.

The likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have pulled out all citing they need more time to recover physically from Wimbledon/wrist injury and much of that has to be have been affected by this tournament moving forward at least two weeks.

Others have followed suit although notably not Novak Djokovic (not yet anyway) and I think the Toronto Masters now looks a big chance for someone to pick up some huge Ranking points and perhaps the biggest title of their career.


Thursday will see a number of tennis matches played across the seven tournaments being played this week and we are beginning to get to the business end of events. It is the final non-hard court events on the main Tour for the rest of the season and the run to the US Open will begin next week in Canada and take in a number of stops on the road to New York at the end of August.


Robin Haase - 1.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: It might be Horacio Zeballos who is Ranked higher than Robin Haase, but I think the Dutchman is rightly considered the favourite in this Gstaad Second Round match.

Both players have come through their First Round match relatively comfortably and some may look to the underdog considering how well Zeballos has played on the clay courts at the Challenger level. In recent weeks Zeballos has won two Challenger events on this surface and reached the Final in another, but he has not been able to turn that success into wins on the main Tour.

Zeballos did play well in reaching the Second Round at this tournament last season, coming through the Qualifiers to get to that Round. However you have to wonder if he has the consistency to play at the highest level even if he is playing against an opponent that is far from consistent and capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match when not expecting him to do so.

2016 has been a tough season for Haase who is in danger of slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but a strong end to this tournament will get him moving in the right direction. Haase has had some disappointing losses on the clay this season, but the summer months have seen him produce his best tennis and he could be in line for another strong run in this tournament.

I don't think this will be easy and I wouldn't be surprised to see some twists and turns through the match, but I do think Haase is capable of winning this one 64, 36, 63.


Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The Second Round match between Johanna Larsson and Sara Sorribes Tormo will be played in Bastad on Thursday. While Larsson came through her First Round match without too much fuss, Sorribes Tormo had to play three sets in her own First Round encounter after coming through two Qualifiers before that.

The young Spaniard has won a couple of titles at the levels below the WTA Tour and she will clearly favour clay with much of her life seeing her play on this surface. That will make Sorribes Tormo a threat, but she has yet to turn her successful results into deep, positive runs on the main Tour.

Last week it took Timea Bacsinszky to stop Sorribes Tormo's run, and the same player beat Larsson in the Quarter Final. It was a poor serving display from Larsson in that one, but that is one of her big weapons especially the kick she can get out of it, while being at home has proven to be a positive experience in the past.

Larsson won the title here last season without dropping a set and that was after twice previously being a losing Finalist in Bastad. Her game seems to work here and the motivation of playing in front of her home supporters clearly keeps her focused and I think Larsson can use all of her experience to get the better of Sorribes Tormo here too.

As long as she serves well, I think Larsson will have chances to break the Sorribes Tormo serve and come through this one 64, 64.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: There are times when I have to question the scheduling players have and this is one of those times after seeing Angelique Kerber in the draw. I am not entirely sure what has motivated the Australian Open Champion to take in another clay court tournament in a season where just 6 of her 35 wins have come on the surface, but now she is here I would expect a full effort.

Anything less will mean Kerber is going out of the tournament in the Second Round against Lara Arruabarrena. The latter might be Number 98 in the World Rankings, but Arruabarrena has had her best results on the clay and would have another winning record in a single season on this surface if she can win this match.

Some of the defeats have been disappointing for Arruabarrena and she has been beaten in all three previous matches against Kerber. That includes a tight three set defeat in Charleston earlier this season, but you can't ignore the fact that Kerber had lost four in a row on the clay courts outdoors, even if she did win the title in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court.

Motivation is a concern when backing Kerber this week, but she showed enough in coming back from a set down to beat Cornelia Lister in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for her in any shape or form against a clay court specialist, but I think Kerber can battle through for a 46, 62, 64 win.


Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: This is a big match for two players who have perhaps slipped further down the World Rankings than they would like to see. Bethanie Mattek-Sands is hoping to improve her own Ranking to ensure she can earn a direct entry into the US Open played next month, while Julia Goerges has to feel she is much better than her current Number 73 in the World Ranking.

I think Mattek-Sands was fortunate with the draw when meeting Kiki Bertens who reached the Final in a rain hit Gstaad last week. A lot of her matches were played in a short period of time at the end of the rain affected week which would have sapped physical strength as Bertens got through to the Final and I do think the American took advantage of that.

It is a big win and Mattek-Sands is capable of producing some big time tennis when she is in her best form. She will need all of that to beat Goerges in this Second Round match as the latter is the superior clay court player and can match the power that Mattek-Sands will bring to the court.

Goerges will again need to serve well and make sure she remains mentally focused when things are not going completely her way. Keeping unforced errors down and working Mattek-Sands around is important if she is to make it three wins in a row against the American, but I like Goerges' chances to do that.

The German did beat Mattek-Sands in straight sets earlier this season in Rome and I think she can match that with a 75, 64 win.


Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Two American players meet in the Second Round in Stanford in the final match of the day and it is Coco Vandeweghe who is a healthy favourite against Nicole Gibbs. I can't disagree with that even if Gibbs is in the midst of her best season on the Tour.

As well as Gibbs has played at times, her serve remains very vulnerable and that has seen her defeats come by wide margins. In her six defeats on the hard courts this season, Gibbs' opponents would have covered this number four times and Coco Vandeweghe has the kind of firepower that will cause her a few problems.

That will only be amplified if Vandeweghe is serving as well as she can and the pressure on Gibbs will come from the other side of the court and the scoreboard. It will be tough to ignore that on the faster surfaces where one break could be enough for someone like Vandeweghe to take the set and she can be a strong front runner as confidence builds.

My one concern for Vandeweghe has to be the poor run she had on the North American courts at this time last year and she can be a little loose when the break points come her way. However I think she will create enough chances to win this one 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals to be played on Friday.


Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the in-form players on the Tour is Steve Johnson who made a strong start to his hard court season with a convincing win over Adrian Mannarino. He should expect a much stronger challenge from Ryan Harrison, even if the latter is Number 158 in the World Rankings.

Harrison has really struggled for consistency since his breakout year on the Tour in 2012 and the majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days. However Harrison still has a pretty big serve and can play some strong stuff on the hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent despite what the World Ranking may indicate.

He has already won three matches here in Washington having come through the Qualifiers and Harrison certainly has an ability to steal sets off of his opponents on the hard courts even if he ultimately comes up short in the match. It has to be a concern in backing Steve Johnson who might be full of confidence, but who has a losing record on the hard courts this season.

Johnson did reach the Semi Final in Washington last season and will be looking to match that performance to make sure he keeps his Ranking high enough to be Seeded at his home Grand Slam next month. The higher Ranked American in this contest has certainly been serving very well and I think he can get the better of Harrison in this one although it is likely to be in two competitive sets as I look for Johnson to come through 76, 63.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: Most of the players left in the men's draw in Washington are Seeded players, but part of the reason we haven't seen a clean sweep is because of Daniel Evans. The British player was a deserving winner over an out of form Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round and he will be looking to back that up when he faces Jack Sock on Thursday.

A place in the Quarter Final is at stake and it would be a huge boost for Evans in terms of his World Ranking which was at a career high just last week. He is still inside the top 100 and Evans will be looking to keep that Ranking trending in the right direction, but the win over Dimitrov might make him a little over-rated in this one.

There is no doubting that Jack Sock has plenty of room for improvement including backing up his serve more effectively than he does and improving his return game. However the American does have some heavy groundstrokes, particularly the forehand wing, and Sock will be looking for a run that could potentially see him move inside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Sock had a tough win over Lukas Lacko in the last Round and the next few weeks present him a real chance to put up some big Ranking points with nothing much to defend. He did reach the Quarter Final in Washington last season and Evans hasn't played too many matches at this level over the last few seasons. I respect how well he played to see off Dimitrov, but Sock should be a much more confident player and can win this one 76, 63.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: At Wimbledon, John Isner made it seven straight wins over Marcos Baghdatis and I think the American will have his chances to make it eight in a row on Thursday. His serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but the key to this one is that Baghdatis is likely to throw in a cheap service game or two which can be difficult to retrieve on the faster hard courts.

Their match at Wimbledon was close, but I do think Baghdatis is more comfortable on the grass than Isner, whereas the hard courts are much more to Isner's liking. Both players performed well to win their Second Round matches on Wednesday, but this is a step up in competition for both and the mental edge has to be given to Isner considering their previous head to head match ups.

When Baghdatis builds up some momentum he can be tough to stop, but there are plenty of early exits on the hard courts that the Cypriot has experienced over the last few seasons. Too many second serves gives players a chance to have a real swing against him and Baghdatis has to be mentally right at the races to stay with Isner in this one.

The Davis Cup loss to Marin Cilic was a big disappointment for Isner but he has an easier way to get over those mental blows with his serve being a huge weapon on the hard courts. He might need a tie-breaker to win the first set, but I think Isner will then have a few chances against the Baghdatis serve as tiredness and scoreboard pressure build up which will lead to a 76, 64 win for the Number 1 Seed.


Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: One of the most frustrating players on the Tour has to be Alexandr Dolgopolov who has all the talent, but rarely makes the right shot selection. He looks like a player that simply goes out on the court and will play his own way regardless of whether it is the right tactic for the day and Dolgopolov will take his chances whether he wins or loses.

I don't know if it matters to him so much if he doesn't win and so it can be hard to know what exactly you are going to see from the Dolgopolov racquet on any given day.

That is not the case with Sam Querrey who will look to dominate behind a big serve and heavy forehand wherever possible. The win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon has raised his stock, but it is important for Querrey to back that up over the next few weeks on what should be his favoured hard courts.

Querrey has had an inconsistent year on the hard courts with early losses in Indian Wells and Miami, but winning a title in Delray Beach. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks which will give him a chance to really improve his Number 29 position in the World Rankings and the American has won his last three matches against Dolgopolov including both matches last season.

I just believe Querrey won't be as erratic as Dolgopolov who had success at this stage of the Tour last year but who has been very inconsistent through 2016. It should be an interesting match while it lasts but I think Querrey can come through and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 25.53% Yield)