Tennis Picks 2023 (July 27th)

It was shaping up to be a brutal Wednesday after a couple of matches swerved away from the winning line late on, but a couple of solid results from Umag avoided the complete disaster.

There remain some frustrations with some of the Picks that have come close to crossing the line with a win, but fallen short, although I do feel the selections are still being identified in a decent way.

Ultimately that feeling will only be the right one if the winners start to pile in and there is time to make sure this is a solid week for the selections.

The focus on Thursday will be solely on Hamburg where all three Tennis Picks are played.

Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Finally getting one over on Francisco Cerundolo will have pleased Yannick Hanfmann, even if it came via a third set retirement, and the home player should be able to back that up against Zhizhen Zhang.

You would be foolish to completely dismiss the chances of Zhizhen Zhang only because we have seen Yannick Hanfmann throw in a poor match just last week in Gstaad, but the higher Ranked player has been the superior clay courter this season.

Zhizhen Zhang was beaten by the same opponent who eventually got the better of Yannick Hanfmann last week in Gstaad, but he has been good enough to take a set from Casper Ruud at the French Open and had a strong run in Madrid where he beat top 20 Ranked players Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz in consecutive Rounds. However, the majority of his clay court tennis over the last twelve months has been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and that makes his overall numbers a little disappointing.

The serve has proven to be an effective weapon for Zhang and it will be important here, but he has not returned as well as Yannick Hanfmann who has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay this season. If you remove the nine clay court matches played against opponents inside the top 50, Hanfmann's break percentage improves slightly to 30% and he has served just as well as Zhizhen Zhang in the main.

The lower Ranked player has broken in 21% of return games played on this surface in 2023 and again it has to be noted that the majority of those have been against opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. In those six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhang's break percentage drops to 14% in games and this should mean Yannick Hanfmann has the edge in terms of chances to get to Break Point.

Numbers don't always tell the full story and Yannick Hanfmann has just produced a 'big' win which can be tough to back up. However, having the home support should help and produce a much better all around effort than the one he had in his loss last week, while the German has a 23-8 record on the clay when looking at results against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings.

He has won fourteen out of eighteen matches on the clay against players Ranked lower than him when they have played, and he would have covered this handicap margin in eleven of the thirteen best of three set matches Hanfmann has won.

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 games v Eva Lys: This has already been a strong week for Eva Lys who is pushing back towards her career high World Ranking after back to back wins in Hamburg.

In both matches she has beaten higher Ranked opponents and has opened up the draw by beating the Number 2 Seed in the draw, while the German home crowd will give Eva Lys another boost.

The run has been a surprise considering Lys had lost all four clay court matches played in 2023 prior to the start of the tournament in Hamburg. She has made use of her place in the main draw and Eva Lys has to be respected for not only winning her matches, but winning in the style she has been with dominant results.

You have to expect this to be a much sterner examination for the home player than she has had in the tournament so far when facing Arantxa Rus, although the World Number 60 has already had to spend over five hours on the court. Winning will help, but Rus would have preferred to have avoided having to win a deciding set in each of her two wins this week.

On paper this should be an 'easier' test, but Lys has some momentum behind her.

However, I have to like the fact that Arantxa Rus has a 30-5 record on the clay courts when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, and that record becomes 26-2 when only considering matches against opponents outside of the top 100. Only one loss has been against a player lower in the World Rankings than Rus when the match has been played and you have to believe her returning will be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final.

Eva Lys will feel her own returning has been effective enough to create Break Points considering how she has played this week. She has been able to step up her own personal level when facing players Ranked higher than herself on the clay courts in her career, but Eva Lys may just find Arantxa Rus a little too battle hardened in this one.

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 games v Noma Noha Akugue: There are a couple of home players that have made it through to the Hamburg Quarter Final and both have surprised by managing to do that.

Out of the two, Noma Noha Akugue has certainly had a tougher time than Eva Lys, although you have to respect the character shown in coming back from 6-0, 5-4 down to win the match in three tough sets. The two and a half hours spent on the court should not be an issue for the young lefty, but Noha Akugue would have invested a lot of emotional energy into her Second Round win over Storm Hunter.

It will see her move into a new career high World Ranking come Monday morning, but Noma Noha Akugue is going to have to beat a tough clay courter in the Quarter Final when going up against Martina Trevisan.

The Italian is another lefty and her two wins this week have been impressive in what has otherwise been a mixed year on the clay courts. Martina Trevisan had been able to look after serve well enough this week and that has seen her dominate her two matches, although it is a vulnerable shot and makes it a little harder to trust Trevisan to cover big handicaps.

However, Martina Trevisan has been able to beat players she is expected to beat with her three losses against players Ranked below her being against Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and in a retirement.

Breaks have to be expected in a match like this, but Martina Trevisan can put Noma Noha Akugue under pressure with her clay court nous and the German player could be a little flatter after a big win on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 4.08 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.69% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 24th)

The last two tournaments have not been what I expect from the Tennis Picks, but those have brought plenty of frustration.

You can make adjustments when matches are blow outs going against the selections, but this has been a month where players have been in solid positions to win and then lost all form and played poor tennis at key times.

It is annoying, but it is also part of a long season on the Tour.

This week the tournaments move onto another few clay court stops in Europe, but there are a couple of hard court events being played as the run up towards the US Open officially begins in Atlanta. The big Masters events are due to go in August ahead of the tournament in New York City, but it has been confirmed that Novak Djokovic will not play the Canadian Masters as he looks to give himself more time to rest and recover.

The ATP Hamburg event is a pretty big one as an ATP 500 tournament, and the Tennis Picks are largely going to concentrate on that tournament this week. Monday tends to be a quieter day with Qualifiers being completed and some of the markets not produced for all of the matches that are set to be played, while I am looking for a stronger return all around after another poor week.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: A disappointing loss in Bastad will have hurt, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry can make up for that by earning a spot in the Second Round in Hamburg.

It has been a strong season on the clay courts with the notable result being his run to the Quarter Final at the French Open, and that was a run that helped Tomas Martin Etcheverry reach a career high World Ranking last month. With a couple more solid performances over the next four weeks, Etcheverry has to be thinking about being Seeded for the US Open, which may give him an opportunity to pick up some more World Rankings.

Things have not always been smooth for the Argentine and the defeat last week in Bastad means his post-Wimbledon performances on the clay courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive. Last year he was beaten in the First Round in all three clay court events played in the European summer, but the first serve has looked a more efficient weapon for Tomas Martin Etcheverry this year and this could be a key for him in this First Round match.

His opponent is someone that has to be respected- Laslo Djere is very capable at his best, but he is also never that far away from a really poor outing, which is perhaps why his numbers are average on the clay courts. Last week he was beaten in very poor fashion by Zizou Bergs in Gstaad, but overall Laslo Djere has played well against opponents outside of the top 20 on the clay courts and has a 12-6 record against them on this surface in 2023.

The numbers are much stronger in those matches and Djere is someone who can serve well on the clay, while the Serb's return game has to be respected too.

However, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been a little better all around on the surface over the last seven months and the feeling is that he will have enough quality to get the better of a tough opponent.

Both have similar service numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20, but Etcheverry has been slightly superior on the return and that could be shown up in this First Round contest that may be played under the Hamburg main court roof.

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 games v Erika Andreeva: It is always going to be tough to perform on the Tour when your younger sister is seen as the more talented up and comer and a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion in the making.

This did not stop Venus Williams from making a huge impact of her own on the Tour even when her father was speaking about the potential of Serena, and that is something that Erika Andreeva is going to have to show.

She has not really been able to find the strong results that Mirra has done, while Erika's World Ranking has slipped back outside of the top 150.

Things can quickly turn around, but it can also be very difficult to crack the top 100 once you slip out of those positions. Jil Teichmann is a great example of that having lost form in a twelve month period and the Swiss player is struggling to put the results together to end her slide.

A Quarter Final run last week will help, but that was in a WTA 125 tournament and this is a big week for the home player. The fans are going to be behind Teichmann, which will help the lefty, while a strong win over Erika Andreeva a few weeks ago will give the favourite more confidence to take into the match.

Erika Andreeva has flashed some of her potential, but her serve is still vulnerable and Jil Teichmann should be able to take advantage and frank the win she holds over her. While she is not playing at the level that took Teichmann into World Number 21 in July 2022, she does hold a 6-2 record against players not Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts and that includes that win over Andreeva.

For all of her potential, Erika Andreeva is just 4-6 in matches against players outside of the top 100 on the red dirt in 2023 and she has suffered some comfortable defeats in those matches.

MY PICKS: Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 21st)

The weather in London reached ridiculous heights on Tuesday and it certainly meant I did not want to be on a laptop or computer any longer than I needed to be.

After the day for the Tennis Picks, it was easy for me to take a day off to recover.

Bad luck seemed to be flying all over the place over the first couple of days of this week and I needed the mental break of a day off just to cool down (mentally and physically).

What a day- I will make no excuses for the Cristian Garin and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman picks- but I have struggled to accept some of the other selections and the way in which they were undone.

Laslo Djere won his first set 6-1 and was up 4-2 in the second set having held onto serve all the way at that point of the match, but somehow was beaten 6-1, 6-7, 3-6.

Thiago Monteiro played poorly, but did have his chances in the second set which would have seen him cover.

Fabio Fognini was leading 6-3 after set one and looked to have momentum having recovered from a break down in the second set before once again losing focus.

Jaume Munar won the first set with a double break, but lost the second having dropped serve twice more than his opponent and then waited until the cover was impossible before winning four games in a row to secure the match.

And worst of all, Marc-Andrea Huesler who led 7-6, 5-4, 40/0 on serve and having not faced a Break Point in the match... Amazingly he failed to serve it out and ultimately lost the match.

Honestly it is tough to take a day like that when so many seemed to blow strong positions and it was frustrating to say the least.

While it likely means a losing week, I am expecting much better through the remainder of this week and month to back up what had been a solid grass court season.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players met in the Quarter Final in Umag twelve months ago and both were Seeded.

Back then Filip Krajinovic was the Number 3 Seed, but Carlos Alcaraz was the Number 7 Seed and Number 73 in the World Rankings... Now he is playing in Hamburg as the top Seed in the draw and the World Number 6 to underline the kind of progress that Alcaraz has made on the Tour.

Earlier this season he was playing like the World Number 1 and it was telling that so many were tipping Carlos Alcaraz to truly announce himself to a wider public by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ultimately he was narrowly beaten in the Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz will be someone to watch out for at the US Open next month and especially if he can produce some confidence boosting tennis in the build towards that event.

The Spaniard is a confident hard court player, but the tournament in Hamburg will help build the Ranking, while Carlos Alcaraz has made it clear that his main ambition for the season is making sure he is playing in his first ATP Finals. He is well on course for that and I think Carlos Alcaraz will be all the better for the challenging win in the First Round having produced some of the best clay court numbers of any player on the Tour in 2022.

The Quarter Final win over Filip Krajinovic in Umag was far from easy last season, but Carlos Alcaraz has moved past the Serb who is an inconsistent clay court player. Filip Krajinovic had a solid win over Sebastian Baez in the First Round, but the latter had a deep run in Bastad and I think that ultimately made the difference in the match.

I do think this is going to be a much tougher match for Krajinovic who has not really returned as well as he would have liked on the clay courts with breaks in just 18% of return games played. Filip Krajinovic will likely feel the pressure on his own serve against a player like Carlos Alcaraz who wins plenty of return points and who has broken in 33% of return games played on this surface this season.

Carlos Alcaraz has improved on the Tour mainly because of his serve and I expect a much better performance on this side of his tennis than we saw in the First Round. He has been winning 65% of service points behind his serve on the clay courts and I think that will also build the pressure on Filip Krajinovic and to a higher extent than when they met last season.

It is a big spread to cover, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be much better than he was in the First Round and he has the return game to cover the mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Bernarda Pera - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 19th)

The hot weather sweeping across Europe had an impact in the early matches at the three stops taken in by the ATP and WTA Tours and there is another challenging day ahead for the players getting into First and Second Round action.

Wet weather is expected later in the week and the cooler conditions will benefit all as the events in Hamburg, Gstaad and Palermo continue.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: After snapping a long losing run to Fabio Fognini when these two players last met in 2019, Aljaz Bedene was back in a familiar position in Belgrade earlier this season.

Once again Fabio Fognini got the better of Bedene to extend his dominance of the head to head between the players and they are meeting on the clay courts again, this time in the First Round in Hamburg. All but one of their previous ten matches have been played on the clay courts and Fabio Fognini leads the Aljaz Bedene 8-1 as these two veterans of the Tour meet with some important Ranking points on the line.

The two players are slipping down the World Rankings and further drops, or the end of the Protected Ranking in Aljaz Bedene's case, will mean having to Qualify for some of the bigger tournaments on the Tour. I don't really envision either wanting to do that long-term and so it is important to pick up some Ranking points in the summer clay court swing before the majority of players head to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.

We have already seen the signs of the pressure that comes with having to Qualify for main draws last week when Fabio Fognini was beaten in the final Round of Qualifying for Bastad. He did eventually make the main draw as a Lucky Loser, but was beaten in the First Round and the Italian is clearly a player that has seen his better days.

His numbers back that up, but Aljaz Bedene has had an even more difficult season on the red dirt and he has a 3-7 record overall in 2022. The early defeat at Wimbledon under a Protected Ranking means the Slovenian has not played for three weeks now and I do think he is vulnerable in this match up even when at his best.

Fabio Fognini has a vulnerable serve on this surface, but his return game has proven to be a big problem for Aljaz Bedene to deal with. It has meant that Bedene has broken in 25% of the return games against Fognini on the clay compared with the 33% mark produced by the Italian and that is a significant edge.

It ended up being a very comfortable win for Fabio Fognini when these two met in Belgrade in April, but this one is likely to be a big tighter considering the lack of confidence that Fognini is seemingly playing with. Even then, the Italian should have the tennis to break down the Aljaz Bedene game and I think he will eventually be able to do enough to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a best of three set match.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: There have been a number of big name players that have missed significant time on the Tour due to injury and who have returned in 2022 looking to rediscover their best competitive form. The biggest is Dominic Thiem who has finally gotten back into something of a winning habit over the last couple of weeks, but don't underestimate the kind of talent that Borna Coric has and the hope is he can finally begin to fulfil that.

He reached a career high of Number 12 in the World Rankings, while Borna Coric looked to have the tennis that could make him very effective on all surfaces. At 25 years old, the Croatian could still have a very bright future, but the long layoff has left him vulnerable in 2022 and he has only won two of the eight matches played on the main Tour since returning.

With no World Ranking points on offer, I am perhaps not that surprised that Borna Coric decided to skip Wimbledon and instead play a couple of Challenger events on the clay courts. The Croatian will hold a Protected Ranking for now, but Borna Coric is currently outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and it is really important for him to pick up some momentum and plenty of wins to avoid having to play those smaller events more regularly.

It was a positive month for Borna Coric with a Quarter Final run in Perugia and then winning the title in Parma, but he returned with a First Round loss in a Challenger event last week and he may have hoped for a much better draw here in Hamburg. He has already been beaten by Laslo Djere once this season and the latter also holds a 2-0 head to head advantage over Borna Coric with both wins being earned on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has become a very steady, consistent player on the clay courts, although he doesn't seem to have the extra gear to really beat the best players on the Tour. He has been able to challenge them on this surface and he put together a decent tournament in Bastad last week before losing to Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final.

The numbers remain solid and Laslo Djere will feel he can get a little more from his return game than Borna Coric in this First Round match to make all of the difference in the outcome of it. When they met in Rome in May, the scoreboard suggests it was an easy enough win for Djere, but the Serb will be the first to admit that he played the big points much more efficiently than Borna Coric and that is going to have to be the case when they meet in Hamburg too.

There hasn't been much between these players in the two previous clay court matches, but Laslo Djere has been able to exert enough pressure to see Borna Coric crack. At this stage of their careers, I think that is still the case for Djere as Borna Coric continues his recovery to the level he was producing a couple of years ago, and I think the higher Ranked player will make it a hat-trick of victories over this opponent on the red dirt.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marc-Andrea Huesler - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.14 Units (12 Units Staked, - 9.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 28th)

A really poor start to the week with some poor luck afflicting the selections was a bit of a blow, but a strong Saturday has turned things around and put the Tennis Picks in a position to return another profitable week on the Tour.

All three selections made on Saturday returned winners and on Sunday we conclude the tournaments played with all of the Finals scheduled to be completed. On Monday the Tour moves further into the US Open Hard Court Series with stops in Washington and San Jose, while there is one more clay court event to go for those who like to take in the red dirt between Wimbledon and the final Grand Slam of the season being played.


My focus in this thread is from the Final being played in Hamburg. Any selection from Atlanta will be made on Sunday once the two Semi Final matches and market for the Final have been formulated, while I have also updated the totals from this week below.


Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There has not been a player that has been able to defend the Hamburg title since 2005 when Roger Federer was able to do that before the tournament lost its status as a Masters event. That run might come to an end on Sunday when Nikoloz Basilashvili looks to defend the title he won twelve months ago.

The Georgian was able to beat home favourite Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final, although Basilashvili needed a final set tie-breaker to overcome his opponent. In fact Basilashvili was arguably the inferior player on the day, but he was able to win the big points much more effectively than Zverev who had 12 more break points on the day, but both players were able to earn four breaks of serve each.

This week we have seen Nikoloz Basilashvili produce much better numbers than he has been able to generate on the clay courts throughout his career. The serve has been important for Basilashvili who has won 64% of points played behind serve and held 83% of the service games, but it is the performance on the big points against the serve which have proved to be key for him.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has broken in 31% of return games played this week, but it will be a test to get the better out Andrey Rublev who is another player that has perhaps produced the best possible clay court tennis he can. The youngster has won 66% of the points he has played behind serve and backed that up with 41% of return points also being won and I think I am giving him the slight edge in this match, although the layers are of the same opinion too.

It could be argued that Rublev has not been as strong on the big points as Basilashvili considering he has held in 79% of service games and broken in 29% of return games compared with the 83% and 31% numbers in the same category his opponent has managed. Those are numbers that surprise considering Rublev is winning a higher percentage of points on both the serve and return.

I could say Basilashvili may also hold a slight mental edge having beaten Andrey Rublev on the hard courts in the very first week of the 2019 season. Both are off emotional wins in the Semi Final, but I think Andrey Rublev might be in a better place mentally having pulled away from Pablo Carreno Busta compared with Basilashvili needing a final set tie-breaker to get into the Final.

This Final could be a good one and I won't be surprised if we need to see three sets to determine a winner. However my edge is with Andrey Rublev as he perhaps sees Nikoloz Basilasvili fade following his Semi Final win which lasted over three hours on Saturday and I will back the young Russian to win his second career title at the main ATP level.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-7, + 3.32 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.76% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.


Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 26th)

It has been the kind of week where a player serves for the match, and the cover, but fails to do that and misses out by one game.

At the time of writing the final Tennis Pick from Thursday has yet to be played. I will update the weekly totals on Friday morning, but the selections from Friday Quarter Final matches can be seen below.

Any selections from Atlanta will be added once the full Quarter Final markets have been formulated.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Twelve months ago Dominic Thiem was beaten in the Quarter Final of the Hamburg Open and he is looking to move at least one step further in 2019. The Number 1 Seed is the big favourite to beat Andrey Rublev on Friday, but Dominic Thiem will know he will need to be a lot more effective when it comes to the break points if he is going to make this match go his way.

On the face of things you would make the Austrian a big favourite anyway when you consider Rublev's history on the clay courts, but the young Russian has been in good form so far this week.

Both of his wins have been solid as Rublev has got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve. This has been a relatively strong part of his game anyway, but Rublev has to be pleased with his run at Hamburg having won 43% of return points and breaking serve in 30% of return games played.

The serve is perhaps not as strong as Rublev would like, but he has won 65% of points played behind that shot. That is a few clicks higher than his overall clay court numbers in 2019, but Rublev has still had a few issues getting through all of his service games with holds in 76% of service games played this week despite the improvement as far as points won behind serve are concerned.

Now he has to play someone like Dominic Thiem who is at his most comfortable when it comes to playing tennis on the clay courts. Two wins over Pablo Cuevas and Marton Fucsovics has seen Thiem win all four wins sets played, and his serve has been a potent weapon with 95% of service holds secured in those victories.

Dominic Thiem was not as effective on the break points as much as he would have liked in the Second Round win over Fucsovics, but he has still broken in 26% of return games played. He has been able to put enough pressure on the return of serve to break his opponent's down, but Thiem will have to be a little more productive at the big points to ensure this is not another tough battle.

These two players met in Monte Carlo eighteen months ago and it was a close, competitive match between the players on the clay courts. Dominic Thiem edged that one, but he can make this a little more simple as long as he can take a couple more of the break points in this match than he has in his last couple of matches.


Pablo Carreno Busta v Fabio Fognini: Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fabio Fognini are very comfortable playing on the clay courts and they meet for a place in the Semi Final of Hamburg on Friday. Both players have won all four sets they have played in the first two Rounds so confidence should not be a big factor, although Carreno Busta may have the mental edge.

The Spaniard has won all six previous matches against Fabio Fognini and that includes three wins on the clay courts, although they have not played on this surface since 2017. Fabio Fognini has had slightly better fortunes playing Carreno Busta on the clay compared to their overall record, but the latter has had the edge with 77% of service games held compared with Fognini's 65%.

Pablo Carreno Busta has had a slight edge on the service points won too, which won't be a surprise considering those hold numbers, and I think mentally he may have the advantage in this one.

It does have to be said that Pablo Carreno Busta's return of serve has been very important for him in his two wins this week and he is playing at a significantly higher level than what he has managed in 2019 on this surface overall. This week he has won 44% of return points and broken in 35% of return games which is a significant improvement on his 2018 and 2019 numbers on the surface.

Maintaining that level will obviously be a challenge for Carreno Busta considering the numbers set in the last eighteen months, but he will be playing with some belief considering the success he has had against Fognini.

The Italian has had some strong runs on the clay in 2019, but he has been inconsistent with his level of play. This week it looks like we have got Fabio Fognini in some of his better form with 85% of service games held and breaks of serve in 33% of return games played. The serve has been a slight weakness for Fabio Fognini in general though and I expect Carreno Busta to challenge him in that regards.

Both players will be full of belief that their level can see off the other, but I am favouring Carreno Busta thanks to the head to head advantage and his general play on the clay courts. This week we have seen both players win their matches with some relative comfort, but I think Carreno Busta deserves the credit for having the best win of the two having seen off Jan-Lennard Struff in the Second Round.

At close to pick 'em prices, I will back Pablo Carreno Busta here.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.94 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 25th)

This has not been a great week for the Tennis Picks and some of the frustration is down to the poor conversion of break points between the players I've picked and those they are playing.

It was the case on Wednesday as Casper Ruud blew a set and a break lead before going down in three sets. Dominic Thiem then missed his first eight break points before finally converting some and the day was wrapped up by Juan Ignacio Londero missing five break points before dropping the first set in his eventual three set defeat.

This week has thus been one of the worst of the 2019 season, but there are still four days to come before the tournaments are completed in Hamburg, Gstaad, Atlanta, Jurmala and Palermo. If Thursday is a really poor day I am thinking I might put a pin in the week, but I am looking for better results from the three selections made below.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: There were high expectations of Alexander Zverev going into the 2019 season after his success at the ATP Finals last November. Ultimately he has underwhelmed and Zverev was very critical of himself after another early Grand Slam exit at Wimbledon earlier this month.

He is clearly searching for a level of confidence and that has meant Zverev has taken an entry into the Hamburg Open where the ATP are running a 500 level event this week. The home favourite earned a solid win over Nicolas Jarry in the First Round, although that was against an opponent who was winning a title on Sunday and could have been a little fatigued.

In the Second Round Alexander Zverev takes on Federico Delbonis who was a Semi Finalist in Bastad before his run was ended by Jarry and who has followed up with a solid looking win over Marco Cecchinato in the First Round here. It has been a good month for the Argentinian who has won a Challenger title in Perugia before the run in Bastad and who continues to play his best tennis on the clay courts.

A solid month of clay court tennis has seen Federico Delbonis really improve the way he has been returning serve with 44% of points won against an opponent's serve. That has seen the Argentinian break in 36% of return games played and he will feel he can put Alexander Zverev under pressure with what has been a vulnerable confidence in matches over the last few months.

In 2019 Alexander Zverev has seen his numbers drop being serve and return on the clay courts, and that has seen him offer up seven fewer wins this year compared with 2018. He might be able to close that number in what is a relatively weak field for an ATP 500 event, but this is going to be a tough match for Zverev.

These two have some similar numbers which does make it difficult to back Zverev here, but I think a couple of factors could favour him. He should be the fresher player considering how much tennis Delbonis has played over the last few days, while their match at Geneva ahead of the French Open on the clay courts there will stand him in good stead.

Alexander Zverev held 81% of his service games played compared with Federico Delbonis who was at 64% in the same category. There was a marked difference in the percentage of service points won by each player and, while Delbonis is playing with more confidence now, I do think we will see the service edge with the German in this one too.

This is a big spread on the handicap considering how vulnerable Alexander Zverev's confidence seems to be, but I think the home crowd can carry him through this one. Federico Delbonis can cause problems, but I think Zverev is going have a little too much for him and can win and cover here.


Bernard Tomic v Matthew Ebden: Falling out of the top 100 of the World Rankings has not exactly humbled Bernard Tomic who still seems to have a strained relationship with the rest of the world. He is not in the mix when it comes to the Australian Davis Cup team, while Tomic has perhaps been enjoying the spoils of his career rather than looking to really make the most of his potential.

His come from behind win over Frances Tiafoe in the First Round is a big result, but it will be meaningless to Tomic if he is not able to take advantage of opening up the draw. However I have no doubt the fact that Tomic is so erratic day to day that the layers are not convinced he will be able to do that when facing compatriot Matthew Ebden.

The latter was a solid winner in the First Round too, but in general Matthew Ebden has had a difficult time on the hard courts. He only improved to 3-9 on the hard courts with his win over Kamil Majchrzak and Ebden has seen his numbers decline significantly from 2018 to 2019 on this surface.

In those years Matthew Ebden has seen his number of service games held drop from 78% to 73% on the hard courts and that has only made it more difficult to hide the relatively weak return numbers. It will be an issue for him against someone like Bernard Tomic who has been holding 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and who continues to be as good as his serve allows him to be.

Bernard Tomic has also been a lot more effective than Matthew Ebden when it comes to the return of serve and I do think he is someone that can be backed at the prices on offer. The 3-0 head to head in favour of Tomic is not entirely relevant as their last match against each other came back in 2014, but compatriots playing each other can produce something of a hierarchal issue for the supposed underdog to overcome.

I do think Matthew Ebden will feel like that even though this is a virtual pick 'em on the day. Backing Bernard Tomic is not an easy decision, but I think he can use the stronger serve to edge out his fellow Australian.


Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Two very young players on the Tour have begun to make an impact at the main ATP level which has seen Miomir Kecmanovic and Ugo Humbert both reach peak World Rankings going into this tournament in Atlanta. Another strong run will see them improve further and the layers have set this up as a pick 'em with both having very similar numbers for the 2019 season.

These two actually met in Antalya on the grass courts when Kecmanovic managed to beat Humbert in straight sets back in June, but the hard court form also seems to suggest that the young Serbian can be backed here.

Miomir Kecmanovic reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells earlier this season and, while he has yet to really put together some consistency on the surface, he is someone who has produced some decent numbers. The Serbian has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts at the main ATP Tour level and he has also broken in almost 22% of return games which does make him a credible player on the surface.

Those numbers stay steady on the serve when only considering the Kecmanovic performance against players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings on this surface. However Kecmanovic will be confident going into this match considering he has upped his return numbers to finding breaks in almost 28% of return games played.

I do have to admit the return numbers are in for a strict test from Ugo Humbert as the young, lefty Frenchman has held 87% of service games played on the hard courts. The serve has been a massive weapon for Humbert who has won 67% of points played on the hard courts in his matches on the main Tour and that is going to give him every chance of trying to build some scoreboard pressure on Kecmanovic.

The issue for Humbert has been trying to get enough out of his own return of serve and against a server like Kecmanovic he can't expect to have a lot of joy. Ugo Humbert has only broken in 13% of return games played on the main Tour, but even adding the Qualifiers and Challenger events in 2019 and he has broken in less than 20% of his return games played on the hard courts.

With similar levels of serving, I do think the Kecmanovic return can give him the edge when it comes to facing someone like Humbert. Both should be confident that the serve can set them up for success, but I favour Kecmanovic to earn the win and place into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 24th)

I won't lie, I do feel I left a few options out there on Tuesday and that felt pretty rubbish when the one and only Tennis Pick made was as poor as it was. At the end of the day the reason my season totals have been as strong as they are is because I have removed matches that have created some doubt, although picking Philipp Kohlschreiber and Tommy Robredo this week have not felt like great calls.

There was enough to believe in both players, but it has been the part of a frustration week through the first couple of days at the events being played. Hopefully things can begin to be turned around on Wednesday as we move through to the Second Round of the draws as I look to keep the positive run going after the conclusion of Wimbledon.


Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Two young players on the Tour are looking to use their week in Hamburg as a chance to add some significant World Ranking points to boost their current standings in the top 100. Wins in the First Round have put Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud on a collision course on Wednesday and the layers are having some difficulty separating these two.

I can see why that would be the case with Rublev having had the more successful set of results in his career than Ruud, but I like the latter in this match as I consider him the superior clay courter.

Earlier this year Casper Ruud had some real successes at the South American Golden Swing, and followed that up with a Third Round run at the Rome Masters and French Open. The serve is beginning to be a strong weapon for the 20 year old and Casper Ruud has been holding 80% of his service games played on the clay courts in 2019. The Norwegian player has also found a way to break serve in 27% of return games played and he is very comfortable on the surface and especially more than Andrey Rublev has been in his career.

That is not to say that Rublev is not capable of performing on the clay courts, but he does have a losing record on the main Tour on this surface. Andrey Rublev has to be respected considering he has won more points than he has lost on the clay courts in 2019, although his numbers are generally slightly weaker than Casper Ruud's.

The Russian has held 73% of his service games played on the clay and has broken in 28% of return games and I do think the Casper Ruud serve can prove to be a difference maker on the day.

I don't think it will be an easy match for either player and it may even need three sets to decide it, but my edge goes to Casper Ruud. I thought he might be a slightly stronger favourite than what are seeing here, and I am going to back the younger player to edge through and with a cover of this handicap mark.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: 2019 has not been the kind of year that Dominic Thiem has usually enjoyed on the clay courts, but he did reach the Final of the French Open for a second year in a row. His numbers have taken a slight decline from the last couple of years on the Tour, but Thiem remains amongst the best tennis players in the world when it comes to playing on the clay.

He is a big favourite to see off Marton Fucsovics after Dominic Thiem produced a relatively straight-forward win over Pablo Cuevas in the First Round. Opponent Fucsovics was also an impressive winner as he saw off Philipp Kohlschreiber for the loss of just three games.

However I still can't ignore the fact that Fucsovics has had a mixed time on the clay courts and now has to face an elite player on the surface. The Hungarian snapped a four match losing run on the clay with his win in the First Round, but I still think it will be difficult to back that up when you consider the general troubles he has had on the serve.

I can be critical of where Dominic Thiem stands when it comes to the return on any surface, but he has produced his best return numbers on the clay courts. That might not be a surprise when you think of the longer rallies that players tend to have to play when on this surface and I do think the Austrian will feel he can out-rally the majority of players he faces.

He is someone whose own serve can be important with over 80% of his service games being held and that is going to put some pressure on Marton Fucsovics. Dominic Thiem has won 40% of points played against his opponent's serve on the clay courts in 2019 and he should be able to get into the Fucsovics' service games which will give him the chance to find the breaks of serve he will need to cover this number on the handicap.

Marton Fucsovics has only produced a 1-6 record against top 20 opponents on the clay courts and his numbers take a slight dent on his overall figures on the clay in 2019. He can be a quality operator on his day, but Dominic Thiem should be the player with the majority of chances in this one and I expect he will be able to take them.


Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: These two players met at the French Open back in May and it was Juan Ignacio Londero who stunned Nikiloz Basilashvili with a very comfortable straight sets win. On that day Londero held 92% of the service games he played and he had Basilashvili under constant pressure having won almost 49% of points played on the Georgian's serve.

The surroundings should be more comfortable for Basilashvili who won the title in Hamburg twelve months ago, but he is not someone who has been able to find his consistent best tennis on the clay. His win over Hugo Dellien in the First Round means Nikoloz Basilashvili has improved his record to 6-6 on the clay, but he will need significant improvement to retain his title here this week.

The one consistency that Basilashvili has had is the struggles to win points on his serve and he has not won more than 59% of points behind serve in any of the last five years on the Tour. This year Basilashvili is only holding 74% of service games played on the surface and that does put some pressure on his return of serve.

We already saw that issue when these two players met in Paris a couple of months ago, but Juan Ignacio Londero is coming off a long week in Bastad when he reached the Final. The Argentinian was a comfortable winner in the First Round and he is holding in 81% of service games played on the clay in 2019.

It does have to be said that there is room for improvement for Londero when it comes to the return of serve, but he has broken in 25% of return games compared with Basilashvili whose number is 23% in the same category.

With a superior serve I do think Londero can come through this match, although he has played a lot of tennis over the last ten days. Nikoloz Basilashvili has the motivation of being a defending Champion here, but I think his reign could come to an end on Wednesday as I look for the lower Ranked player to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 22nd)

Last week was a decent one with the Tennis Picks producing a profit from the three days of selections being made.

This week we move onto a new week with another five tournaments being played including a big ATP 500 event in Hamburg on the clay courts there. The US Open hard court series begins this week too with the first of those events being played on the ATP Tour in Atlanta and the run to the US Open really does begin from here.

Over the next month we have some huge events in Washington, Canada, Cincinnati before the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season begins. The top names on the ATP Tour won't be back until the Masters tournaments next month, but the WTA Tour also has a significant stop in San Jose which is going to bring together a strong line up.


The First Round matches begin at the five tournaments on Monday and I have a couple of selections from those scheduled which can be read below.

I have also updated the season totals which are at the bottom of this thread.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It might be a tournament played on home soil, but Philipp Kohlschreiber has rarely been able to make the impact that he would have liked in Hamburg. His 15-14 record here is average at best, although his better results have come since the tournament lost Masters status and moved to July after Wimbledon was played.

Last year he was beaten in the First Round in Hamburg, but Kohlschreiber has a decent chance to put a win on the board when he faces Marton Fucsovics on Monday. I like the latter as a player who is getting the best out of his potential, but at this stage of their careers it still feels like Kohlschreiber is the superior player on the clay courts.

The home player has a winning record on the clay courts in 2019, while Fucsovics is only 5-7 on the surface. Part of the reason for the negative record for Fucsovics has been the struggles on the serve with less than 60% of points won behind that shot on the clay courts in 2019. It means there is plenty of pressure on him to find the breaks of serve to remain competitive and, while he has been successful to some extent doing that, it is a different kind of task against someone like Kohlschreiber.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won 60% of points played behind serve, but he has been strong enough to hold in 81% of service games played on the surface compared with Marton Fucsovics' number of 72%. The Kohlschreiber return has perhaps been a weakening part of his game, but he has still managed to break serve in 24% of return games compared with Fucsovics being at 22% and I do think the German can use his superior serve to earn the victory in this one.

The layers do think this will be a close match and I tend to think that is down to the decline we have seen from Kohlschreiber over the last few years. He is still capable of winning matches like this one, but the performances are more inconsistent these days and that does make this a slightly risky selection.

However the numbers are pointing to the narrow favourite and he has had a couple of solid runs in Hamburg since the tournament was moved to July. The tournament is not as familiar to Fucsovics as it is to Kohlschreiber and the Hungarian was beaten in the First Round twelve months ago in his only other appearance in Hamburg.

With Kohlschreiber holding a slight edge on both serve and return, I will back him to earn the win in this First Round match and also cover the handicap set for it.


Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Rudolf Molleker: For the majority of his career Leonardo Mayer has been very comfortable on the clay courts and this remains the favourite surface of the Argentinian. His best event may be the ATP tournament in Hamburg having produced significant results in his previous visits to Germany and Mayer has a number of Ranking points to defend again in 2019.

Leonardo Mayer lost his first match here in 2013, but since then he has won the title in 2014 followed by another First Round exit in 2016. The last two years has seen Mayer reach the Final in both appearances in Hamburg and he has won the title once more and Mayer's numbers at this tournament are significantly higher than his overall career on the clay to underline the point about this perhaps being his favoured event.

It has not been a great season for Mayer, but he was a Quarter Finalist in Umag last week which may give him a boost going into this event. The service numbers have remained strong, but the Argentinian has struggled when it comes to the return of serve with breaks of serve in only 16% of return games played on the clay courts.

Despite winning a higher percentage of return points compared with 2018, the break percentage is somewhat down for Mayer and is an area he will want to improve if he is going to have another strong run in Hamburg. He may have an opportunity to do that in this First Round match against Rudolf Molleker who has been given a Wild Card into his home tournament.

The 18 year old is yet to make a real breakthrough on the ATP Tour and Molleker has yet to crack into the top 100 of the World Rankings. It has been difficult for Molleker to really compete in his main Tour matches when you think he has won less than 60% of points on serve and broken in just 12% of return games in the three matches played on the clay courts at this level in 2019.

He has found more joy in the Challenger matches he has played, but Molleker is going to be given a thorough examination from the veteran Leonardo Mayer. The youngster is going to have to reach a level he has yet to show in his career to compete with Mayer and I would back the veteran to win this one with at least a break more in each set played.

It is a big handicap when you think of the overall performances produced by Leonardo Mayer, but the opponent and the tournament look to give him every chance of doing that.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thomas Fabbiano - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 116.23 Units (1353 Units Staked, + 8.59% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 27th)

I didn't have any Tennis Picks on Thursday as tiredness from a tough week got the better of me meaning I could not put in the research I would like whenever I am making a Pick from any sport.

Of course it came after a really disappointing Wednesday when veterans Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco let me down- I won't back the latter as a favourite again, while the former is close to joining the permanent black list of players too.

That has turned a positive start to the week to a negative position and matches are not easy to call on Friday when we reach the Quarter Final matches across the five tournaments being played.

Any picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread on Friday morning.

Edit: The Picks from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals have been added now.


MY PICKS: Jozef Kovalik - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.92 Units (14 Units Staked, - 20.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 25th)

Much like last week, it has been a very good start to the week but I am hoping I am able to maintain the success much better than I was able to do a few days ago.

On Wednesday we move into the Second Round of the matches to be played at ATP Atlanta, ATP Gstaad, ATP Hamburg as well as the two WTA events being played this week. My Tennis Picks are focusing on the men's tournaments taking place because of the better fields that have come together, although I imagine the WTA Moscow event will present some opportunities later in the week as the tournament reaches the business end.

Any Picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread at some point on Wednesday, but for now the three selections come from Gstaad and Hamburg.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: One of the big concerns for an inconsistent player like Fernando Verdasco has to be the long match he had to come through in the First Round in Hamburg. He spent around 40 minutes longer on the court than his opponent in this Second Round match, although it should be noted that Thiago Monteiro is in the draw as a Lucky Loser having won one and lost one Qualifier to get into the main draw.

The majority of his time is spent on the clay courts which makes Monteiro dangerous, but the best results he has tended to produce on the main Tour have come on the South American clay courts. His win over Gilles Simon in the First Round is a solid one which has to be respected, but Verdasco has already beaten the Brazilian very comfortably in 2018.

Verdasco had a very good win over Dusan Lajovic but his performances are becoming more and more erratic as the veteran reaches the latter stage of his career.

To be fair to Verdasco his numbers have been pretty strong in 2018 on the clay courts and they will certainly give him a chance to beat Monteiro for a second time on this surface. Thiago Monteiro has played well enough on the clay courts, but he has struggled with his return of serve and I think that could be a difference maker if Verdasco is not feeling too much tiredness after a long week in Bastad and a tough First Round match.

The struggles on the return of serve have been particularly evident when Monteiro has played on the main Tour and I do give Verdasco enough of an edge to cover this number. While his return of serve has only produced a 29% break rate in 2018, Verdasco has actually won more points on the return of serve this season than he has in previous years and I think it is the Spaniard who will have the majority of break points in this one.

It is always difficult to know what Verdasco will turn up to the court, but he dominated Monteiro when they met on the clay courts in South America earlier this season. If he serves as he has for much of the season on the clay courts Verdasco can do enough to cover this number in a victory over Monteiro.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: This is actually a pretty big number for Gael Monfils to cover when you think he is playing the defending Champion in Hamburg and has had close matches against Leonardo Mayer in the past.

In fact they played one another on the clay courts earlier this season and Monfils was a narrow winner, while he has also needed three sets to win his First Round match. Compare that to Mayer who has had a day of rest between his First Round match and this one and also was a strong winner in his match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

The fact Monfils is 3-0 against Mayer will help the confidence in this one and Mayer has struggled to really put the wins together on the clay courts in 2018. The title win in Hamburg will make Mayer feel better in these surroundings and he will point out the fact that Monfils was perhaps fortunate to beat Marco Cecchinato in the First Round.

The Frenchman has to be very pleased with that win when you think of how well Cecchinato has played on the clay in 2018. However he did win the title in Umag last week which may have meant the Italian was lacking something in the tank to beat Monfils.

The reason I do like Monfils is that he has had plenty of success on the clay courts in the past and the numbers are very similar to what Leonardo Mayer has produced. That is where the head to head could prove to be the difference in the critical moments of this match and I will look for Gael Monfils to end Mayer's defence of the title with a strong looking win.


Roberto Carballes Baena - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: This looks like it has all the makings of a very close Second Round match with the two players producing very similar numbers on the clay courts.

Both Carballes Baena and Taro Daniel have had good First Round wins too, but the difference could come from a mental point of view. It is the Spaniard who has won all five previous matches between himself and Daniel and all but one of those have been on the clay courts albeit the last of those was a couple of years ago.

There has been an improvement in both players since they last met in 2016 but I am not sure you can completely ignore the fact that Daniel has won just a single set between these players.

In 2018 both have served pretty well and also broke serve at around the same number, although Carballes Baena may just have a slight edge all around. Adding that to the head to head and I think the Spaniard can be backed in what is considered a close match in Gstaad.

It is Taro Daniel who has had the better winning percentage on the clay courts, but I think Carballas Baena is going to be the one moving through to the Quarter Final and I will back him to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.08 Units (8 Units Staked, + 38.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 28th)

Thursday proved to be a busy day for me, and a long one, which means my focus is simply getting the picks out for the Friday Quarter Final matches that will be played.

Wet weather remains an issue for the organisers of the events in Europe, but the tournaments remain on schedule and there hasn't been the need for players having to win two matches in a single day to remain in the draw.

It has been a poor week for the picks with little fortune behind them as players have continued to blow winning positions and subsequently missed the cover I have been looking for.

Tough weeks are part and parcel of a long season, but it is still frustrating when so many winning positions have been blown and the manner in which they have been blown.


MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 27th)

There were a number of matches on Wednesday but only one made my shortlist and then there were enough doubts when having a deeper look at that contest which put me off backing it.

It has been a pretty difficult week to find the right angles for picks this week and the only two I have been convinced about have both let me down. Both have been very, very close to success, but ultimately being close is not good enough and I am hoping for better on Thursday to get this week turned back around.

The remainder of the Second Round matches will be played on Thursday before we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the five events being played this week. On Thursday I do have five picks from the tournaments and I am looking for a really strong day to move this week into a positive position for the remaining three days.


Kiki Bertens - 5.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: This is the second time in 2017 that Kiki Bertens and Barbora Krejcikova will be meeting on the Tour and the latter will be hoping for much better than when she earned just three games in the Final in Nuremberg. That was a special tournament for Krejcikova, but Bertens has shown she is one of the better players on the clay courts on the WTA Tour with a title there and one won last week in Gstaad.

The Bertens numbers on the clay courts have been really impressive over the last two years and she has been able to look after her serve very effectively. That is perhaps no surprise when you think how good the serve is and Bertens is able to have the patience to work the points over.

It is also shown up in her return game overall, but those numbers get stronger across the board when Bertens has played opponents Ranked outside the top 100. Those small margins can make the big difference and it is difficult to see Krejcikova snap her 0-3 record against top 20 Ranked players on the clay despite the ease of her win over Annika Beck in the First Round here.

Tiredness could be a factor against Bertens who won the title in Gstaad but she didn't show that in her First Round win over Carina Witthoeft and I think the Bertens return game can set her up for a big win on Thursday. Serving as she has means Bertens can exert plenty of pressure on Krejcikova and I will look for the Dutchwoman to win this one 6-3, 6-3 and move into another Quarter Final on the clay in 2017.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Federico Delbonis: The decline in the David Ferrer game may be irreversible at this time of his career, but he won another title last week in Bastad. That was an impressive title win for Ferrer and I am a little worried that he will struggle to back that up with the inconsistency he has begun to show in his game.

Last week he beat Federico Delbonis who has suffered with injury and a loss of form to fall down the World Rankings and thus take part in more Challenger events than he has been used to. Delbonis has played well in those Challenger events with some deep runs in those tournaments which will have given him some confidence.

Winning two Qualifiers before a First Round success over Carlos Berlocq will add to that confidence and Delbonis and Ferrer did play a close match last week in Bastad. Both players were dominant on the return in that match and I think that will be the case again for both, although I can see Ferrer franking his form with another victory over Delbonis.

Ferrer has won all three previous matches against Delbonis without dropping a set, which is another mental edge for the veteran Spaniard, and I will look for him to win this one 7-6, 6-4.


Jiri Vesely - 2.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: He might not have been at his best in the First Round, but Jiri Vesely should take some heart from beating an in-form Fernando Verdasco over three sets. Playing a lefty in the First Round should mean Vesely is prepared for another meeting with Horacio Zeballos against whom he has won both previous matches.

Neither of those have been on the clay courts which will be Zeballos' preferred surface, but Vesely may also be at his best on this surface. His numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay have been very impressive and that is why I do lean towards Vesely winning this one and also covering this number.

I do have to respect the fact that Zeballos does get some pop on his serve which makes him dangerous, but his return game is not the best. Zeballos will also be challenged by the return game Vesely is able to produce against those players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that works together to see the Czech player move through to the Quarter Final.

In their two previous matches the superior returning of Vesely has proved to be a difference and I will be looking for this match to go the same way. A tie-breaker could be the key moment of the match, but I am looking for Vesely to win that and also the match 6-4, 7-6.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is much to admire about Karen Khachanov's game and the young Russian certainly looks like one of the names to look out for in the coming years. He has had a couple of solid performances at Grand Slam events over the last couple of months, and Khachanov is very comfortable on the clay courts.

He will have to be close to his best to beat Aljaz Bedene who has had a very strong run on the clay courts in 2017. Bedene has showed improvement in both serving and returning in 2017 and that has seen him produce better results.

However those have rarely come against players of the quality of Khachanov and I think that is going to be an issue. While Khachanov hasn't returned as well as he had been in the last couple of years, that has something to do with taken a step up in class when playing regular ATP events and Khachanov has produced better numbers when facing those players Ranked outside the top 50.

Khachanov beat Bedene twice on the clay courts in 2016 and I think he can produce another win over him here in Hamburg. While Bedene has played better tennis on the clay since his last match with Khachanov, I also think the latter is much improved and I can see him being too strong in a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)