Tennis Picks 2023 (July 28th)

The Quarter Finals take centre stage on Friday at the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Hamburg event is already into the Semi Final Round.

Any selections from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals will be added to this thread on Friday, but the four Picks from the other events can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: It sounds like Alexander Zverev is going to deal with the latest allegations made against him very much in the same manner as he did the first and it has seemingly made little effect on his tennis.

He was beaten in the Quarter Final in Bastad last week, but that was against a quality player in Andrey Rublev and it is the kind of result that may have happened at any time. If there was an impact from the latest news headlines, that has not been backed up by Alexander Zverev's performances in Hamburg this week as he has produced two solid wins and the fans have not really been on his back.

This looks like another very winnable match up for him when taking on Frenchman Luca Van Assche, who was perhaps a little fortunate to come from a set behind to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round.

Luca Van Assche has proven to have a pretty effective return on the clay courts, but he is facing a big serving Alexander Zverev who has faced just three Break Points in his two wins in Hamburg. The second serve is where Van Assche has to expect to get some joy, but Alexander Zverev is getting in a high percentage of first serves and you have to believe that he will largely contain the threat from the other end of the court if Zverev can continue to make 70% plus of his first serves.

If he can do that, Alexander Zverev will certainly have a lot of faith in his own returning ability having won 43% of return points played on the clay courts this season when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those have come in eighteen matches, so far from a small sample, while the German has broken four times in both wins in this tournament.

There are plenty of positives for the 19 year old Van Assche to take, but he is still growing into his body and the serve is likely to be improved once he does so. He is only winning 58% of service points against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and Luca Van Assche has been broken in 29% of his service games played against those stronger players.

Alexander Zverev will feel his serving can be one that builds pressure on the scoreboard too and this is a match that the German can win and cover this handicap as long as he remains focused.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Arthur Fils: There have been criticisms of the kind of schedule that Casper Ruud is willing to play, but it was still a surprise to hear him speak about it in his press conference in Hamburg.

Some believe his World Ranking is not justified as he plays, and wins, a lot of the ATP 250 tournaments, but Ruud is more than a flat track bully. Any player that has reached two French Open Finals and a US Open Final deserves more respect, especially as Casper Ruud has been unfortunate to lose those three Grand Slam Finals to Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

He has not enjoyed his time too much in Hamburg this week and had criticisms of the court, while the indoor conditions might be something Ruud has to face again.

Two tough wins over Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin might have just hardened Casper Ruud and this should be a little more comfortable as a match up.

That is not being disrespectful to young Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is still learning at this level even if he won the title in Lyon before the French Open. A win over Francisco Cerundolo to take the title home is one that has to be given credit, but Arthur Fils is just 1-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and his serve has proven to be a vulnerable one in those matches.

He has played well this week to win his two matches, but Fils will know this is a significant increase in level of opponent and the suggestion is that his returning may not be up to the level that may be needed to stay with Casper Ruud.

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: These two met last week in Gstaad and the match ended prematurely when Roberto Carballes Baena had to withdraw midway through the second set.

He looks like he is better this week after winning his Second Round match while dropping four games, but Roberto Carballes Baena has had a slightly disappointing season on the clay courts, which are usually where he is considered a specialist.

Of course he is facing a former French Open Champion, but one who is not the same player he was at his best. Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find the consistency to get back towards the very top of the Tour and at 38 years old it is very difficult to imagine he will have enough of an Indian summer to at least have another strong Grand Slam run.

Improving his World Ranking would help, but that has been tough for Wawrinka who is just 27-22 over the last twelve months.

Two wins in Umag will have given Stan Wawrinka confidence and he could be tough to stop if he serves as well as he can- he is holding 83% of his service games played on the clay courts this season and Wawrinka has only dropped serve three times in his two wins here. He has broken nine times in those victories over Filip Misolic and Federico Coria and Stan Wawrinka should have success against this Carballes Baena serve.

I would not put too much stock into the match in Gstaad considering Roberto Carballes Baena had to pull out, but Stan Wawrinka should have the Break Points to win this match. That hasn't always mattered this month, but creating the chances should put Wawrinka in a position to win this match against the higher Ranked player who only won 58% of his service points against Taro Daniel in the Second Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.26 Units (32 Units Staked, - 19.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.


Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 25th)

This has not been a great week for the Tennis Picks and some of the frustration is down to the poor conversion of break points between the players I've picked and those they are playing.

It was the case on Wednesday as Casper Ruud blew a set and a break lead before going down in three sets. Dominic Thiem then missed his first eight break points before finally converting some and the day was wrapped up by Juan Ignacio Londero missing five break points before dropping the first set in his eventual three set defeat.

This week has thus been one of the worst of the 2019 season, but there are still four days to come before the tournaments are completed in Hamburg, Gstaad, Atlanta, Jurmala and Palermo. If Thursday is a really poor day I am thinking I might put a pin in the week, but I am looking for better results from the three selections made below.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: There were high expectations of Alexander Zverev going into the 2019 season after his success at the ATP Finals last November. Ultimately he has underwhelmed and Zverev was very critical of himself after another early Grand Slam exit at Wimbledon earlier this month.

He is clearly searching for a level of confidence and that has meant Zverev has taken an entry into the Hamburg Open where the ATP are running a 500 level event this week. The home favourite earned a solid win over Nicolas Jarry in the First Round, although that was against an opponent who was winning a title on Sunday and could have been a little fatigued.

In the Second Round Alexander Zverev takes on Federico Delbonis who was a Semi Finalist in Bastad before his run was ended by Jarry and who has followed up with a solid looking win over Marco Cecchinato in the First Round here. It has been a good month for the Argentinian who has won a Challenger title in Perugia before the run in Bastad and who continues to play his best tennis on the clay courts.

A solid month of clay court tennis has seen Federico Delbonis really improve the way he has been returning serve with 44% of points won against an opponent's serve. That has seen the Argentinian break in 36% of return games played and he will feel he can put Alexander Zverev under pressure with what has been a vulnerable confidence in matches over the last few months.

In 2019 Alexander Zverev has seen his numbers drop being serve and return on the clay courts, and that has seen him offer up seven fewer wins this year compared with 2018. He might be able to close that number in what is a relatively weak field for an ATP 500 event, but this is going to be a tough match for Zverev.

These two have some similar numbers which does make it difficult to back Zverev here, but I think a couple of factors could favour him. He should be the fresher player considering how much tennis Delbonis has played over the last few days, while their match at Geneva ahead of the French Open on the clay courts there will stand him in good stead.

Alexander Zverev held 81% of his service games played compared with Federico Delbonis who was at 64% in the same category. There was a marked difference in the percentage of service points won by each player and, while Delbonis is playing with more confidence now, I do think we will see the service edge with the German in this one too.

This is a big spread on the handicap considering how vulnerable Alexander Zverev's confidence seems to be, but I think the home crowd can carry him through this one. Federico Delbonis can cause problems, but I think Zverev is going have a little too much for him and can win and cover here.


Bernard Tomic v Matthew Ebden: Falling out of the top 100 of the World Rankings has not exactly humbled Bernard Tomic who still seems to have a strained relationship with the rest of the world. He is not in the mix when it comes to the Australian Davis Cup team, while Tomic has perhaps been enjoying the spoils of his career rather than looking to really make the most of his potential.

His come from behind win over Frances Tiafoe in the First Round is a big result, but it will be meaningless to Tomic if he is not able to take advantage of opening up the draw. However I have no doubt the fact that Tomic is so erratic day to day that the layers are not convinced he will be able to do that when facing compatriot Matthew Ebden.

The latter was a solid winner in the First Round too, but in general Matthew Ebden has had a difficult time on the hard courts. He only improved to 3-9 on the hard courts with his win over Kamil Majchrzak and Ebden has seen his numbers decline significantly from 2018 to 2019 on this surface.

In those years Matthew Ebden has seen his number of service games held drop from 78% to 73% on the hard courts and that has only made it more difficult to hide the relatively weak return numbers. It will be an issue for him against someone like Bernard Tomic who has been holding 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and who continues to be as good as his serve allows him to be.

Bernard Tomic has also been a lot more effective than Matthew Ebden when it comes to the return of serve and I do think he is someone that can be backed at the prices on offer. The 3-0 head to head in favour of Tomic is not entirely relevant as their last match against each other came back in 2014, but compatriots playing each other can produce something of a hierarchal issue for the supposed underdog to overcome.

I do think Matthew Ebden will feel like that even though this is a virtual pick 'em on the day. Backing Bernard Tomic is not an easy decision, but I think he can use the stronger serve to edge out his fellow Australian.


Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Two very young players on the Tour have begun to make an impact at the main ATP level which has seen Miomir Kecmanovic and Ugo Humbert both reach peak World Rankings going into this tournament in Atlanta. Another strong run will see them improve further and the layers have set this up as a pick 'em with both having very similar numbers for the 2019 season.

These two actually met in Antalya on the grass courts when Kecmanovic managed to beat Humbert in straight sets back in June, but the hard court form also seems to suggest that the young Serbian can be backed here.

Miomir Kecmanovic reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells earlier this season and, while he has yet to really put together some consistency on the surface, he is someone who has produced some decent numbers. The Serbian has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts at the main ATP Tour level and he has also broken in almost 22% of return games which does make him a credible player on the surface.

Those numbers stay steady on the serve when only considering the Kecmanovic performance against players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings on this surface. However Kecmanovic will be confident going into this match considering he has upped his return numbers to finding breaks in almost 28% of return games played.

I do have to admit the return numbers are in for a strict test from Ugo Humbert as the young, lefty Frenchman has held 87% of service games played on the hard courts. The serve has been a massive weapon for Humbert who has won 67% of points played on the hard courts in his matches on the main Tour and that is going to give him every chance of trying to build some scoreboard pressure on Kecmanovic.

The issue for Humbert has been trying to get enough out of his own return of serve and against a server like Kecmanovic he can't expect to have a lot of joy. Ugo Humbert has only broken in 13% of return games played on the main Tour, but even adding the Qualifiers and Challenger events in 2019 and he has broken in less than 20% of his return games played on the hard courts.

With similar levels of serving, I do think the Kecmanovic return can give him the edge when it comes to facing someone like Humbert. Both should be confident that the serve can set them up for success, but I favour Kecmanovic to earn the win and place into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 27th)

I didn't have any Tennis Picks on Thursday as tiredness from a tough week got the better of me meaning I could not put in the research I would like whenever I am making a Pick from any sport.

Of course it came after a really disappointing Wednesday when veterans Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco let me down- I won't back the latter as a favourite again, while the former is close to joining the permanent black list of players too.

That has turned a positive start to the week to a negative position and matches are not easy to call on Friday when we reach the Quarter Final matches across the five tournaments being played.

Any picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread on Friday morning.

Edit: The Picks from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals have been added now.


MY PICKS: Jozef Kovalik - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.92 Units (14 Units Staked, - 20.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 23rd)

The run to the US Open officially begins this week when the ATP Tour moves to Atlanta, but there are some big tournaments in Europe too on the clay courts.

There is one ATP 500 event in Hamburg on the clay courts which is a big chance for players who love that surface to pick up some big Ranking points, while another ATP 250 event is played in Gstaad in another clay court event.

The main WTA tournament is played in Moscow on the clay too.

Once again the main names on the Tour are having another week getting some rest and recuperation from their exploits at Wimbledon but that gives the chance for the likes of Marco Cecchinato, Steve Johnson, Fabio Fognini, Alize Cornet and Anastasija Sevastova to build on title wins last week and earn more Ranking points.

Players of that ilk will be hoping to do that this week and my first couple of Tennis Picks from the week can be found below.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: Two Spanish players meet in the First Round of the ATP Gstaad tournament on the clay courts on Monday. Out of the two players it is Roberto Carballes Baena who is the more comfortable on the surface considering he spends the majority of his time on the clay courts, but Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has been good enough to put together plenty of wins on this surface too.

Both players have actually produced very similar numbers on the clay courts in 2018 with both Garcia-Lopez and Carballes Baena winning around 62% of points behind the serve and around 40% of the returning points. It won't surprise anyone that they have similar hold and break percentages on the clay courts too, although Garcia-Lopez has tended to play at the higher level.

There isn't going to be much between the two players on the day, but Garcia-Lopez could have the edge thanks to the superior level of competition he tends to play against on a more consistent time on the Tour compared with his compatriot.

It feels like a match that is going to see both players have plenty of opportunities to break serve and I am leaning towards Garcia-Lopez to have the edge even though he was beaten by Carballes Baena when they met in a clay court Final on the Challenger Tour in 2017.

On that day Carballes Baena was something of a fortunate winner and I think Garcia-Lopez can earn a measure of revenge with a win in this First Round match. You do have to be a little concerned that this is the first match back on the clay for Garcia-Lopez since the French Open compared with Carballes Baena who was beaten in the First Round in Bastad last week. Carballes Baena also spent a month playing clay court Challenger events rather than any grass tennis so his familiarity with the surface could give him the chance to earn the upset.

However I am not sure Carballes Baena will have the majority of the break points in this one and I like Garcia-Lopez to win and cover if he takes the chances that come his way.


Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: 2018 has been a tremendously poor year for Donald Young and his World Ranking has slipped outside the top 200. It means he will be looking for some Wild Cards to enter events during the North American hard court swing as he may be short of even entering the Qualifying for some of the Masters events coming up and confidence has to be incredibly low.

The overall record over the last twelve months has been very poor, but Young's 2018 record has seen him win just one of the nine matches played on the hard courts. It would be great to say that Young has just had some really difficult draws in those defeats, but that has not always been the case and his numbers have been very poor too.

Those have been particularly poor when it comes to the serve as Young's numbers have slipped from the standards he has set for himself in recent years on the hard courts. He is struggling to hold serve, although facing up against Ivo Karlovic may help with a long known fact the big serving Croatian is a limited returner.

While it has been a tough year for Young, Ivo Karlovic will no doubt feel his own time on the tennis court at the top level is coming to a close. The serve remains a potent weapon for Karlovic, but he is under more pressure to make sure he looks after that side of his game with the return numbers showing even more of a decline.

In each of the last four seasons his percentage of return points won have been in decline and no one should be surprised to see that his break percentage has also declined. Karlovic has broken just under 6% of the time on the hard courts in 2018 which makes it hard to trust him, but he has a strong record against Donald Young and is facing a player who is very short of confidence.

I am anticipating the Karlovic serve putting plenty of mental pressure on Young who has been known for throwing away service games on this surface in 2018. Doing that against Karlovic would be fatal in a set and I think Young will have a hard time getting the better of the Croatian in this one.

Karlovic has not exactly pulled up trees which makes it hard to trust him, but I think he can win this match and cover the small handicap.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.12 Units (1209 Units Staked, + 2.57% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 28th)

Thursday proved to be a busy day for me, and a long one, which means my focus is simply getting the picks out for the Friday Quarter Final matches that will be played.

Wet weather remains an issue for the organisers of the events in Europe, but the tournaments remain on schedule and there hasn't been the need for players having to win two matches in a single day to remain in the draw.

It has been a poor week for the picks with little fortune behind them as players have continued to blow winning positions and subsequently missed the cover I have been looking for.

Tough weeks are part and parcel of a long season, but it is still frustrating when so many winning positions have been blown and the manner in which they have been blown.


MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 6th)

The Olympic Games tennis tournament is played this week in Rio de Janeiro and it should be a fascinating week.

The nature of the draw means there are some very strange names in the mix of a 64 player tournament as it is an event that is opened up to include as many nations as possible. However it has also produced some really interesting First Round matches and there should be some excellent tennis on display over the next few days.

I am not sure how much television coverage there will be of the tennis before the later stages of the tournament, but I won't be around for much of Saturday so won't really know how that coverage will work until Sunday. There are plenty of courts on which the tennis will be played, but I can't imagine too much televised matches outside of the top two courts, although I am hoping to be pleasantly surprised in the coming days.

Anyway I will also use this thread to post any picks from the Atlanta Semi Finals which will take place on Saturday, but I won't add those until early Saturday evening once I am back home.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There was an improvement made by Grigor Dimitrov in reaching the Toronto Quarter Final last week, a run that included a win over Ivo Karlovic who beat Marin Cilic in the opening Round there. However I am not going to suggest Dimitrov is already back to his best after one good tournament as there have been some false dawns in a turn around of his form over the last twelve months.

Dimitrov has had more tennis this summer than Cilic which might give him a slight edge, but a loss to Daniel Evans won't inspire much confidence. His best performances have come on the hard courts though and Dimitrov can give Cilic plenty to think about, especially if the latter is not serving as well as he can.

The Croatian has been involved in Davis Cup action since Wimbledon where he did beat John Isner but the early loss in Toronto was an unexpected setback for Cilic. A poor hard court record in 2016 is an issue for Cilic, but he has saved his best performances for the US Open and these courts are supposed to play most similar to that tournament.

I do think Cilic will have more belief in his own game even if he falls behind in this one and that is why I give him the edge over Dimitrov. It will likely be a tense battle but I am looking for Cilic to take a tight opening set and then perhaps with a little more comfort in the second set to cover this number.


Illya Marchenko + 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The favourite for this match might be Andreas Seppi, but it is Illya Marchenko who comes into this First Round contest as the higher Ranked player.

Marchenko has shown some solid form in winning one Challenger and ending as Runner Up in another on the hard courts since Wimbledon. Both of those were played in Europe which might be an issue, but Marchenko's confidence should be in a very good place heading into this match.

Compared with Marchenko, Seppi has not been playing a lot of tennis since the third Grand Slam of the season ended. He has lost his two matches since Wimbledon and 2016 has been a difficult year for the Italian on the hard courts as he is just 5-6 in his matches played on that surface.

The experience edge has to be given to Seppi, while Marchenko's recent wins have come on the Challenger circuit rather than the main Tour. However his confidence can't be underestimated in this one and what that will give Marchenko and facing someone who might not be feeling his best on this surface should give the Ukrainian a chance to cover with this number of games in his hand.


Evgeny Donskoy - 1.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Playing Challenger events in Kazakhstan might not be the best preparation for the Olympic Games in Brazil, but Evgeny Donskoy won that event after reaching the Semi Final of another hard court Challenger event in Italy.
That makes him the favourite in this First Round match against Jan-Lennard Struff who has been playing on the main Tour this summer but in clay court events. Neither player has the best of records at the main Tour level, but Donskoy can point to a 16-3 record on the Challenger and Qualifier level on hard courts compared with Struff who is going to be playing just his fourth hard court match in 2016.

The familiarity with the surface might give Donskoy the edge in the match although he is yet to take his Challenger level successes onto the main Tour. Some of the losses would have been particularly disappointing for the Russian, but he did reach the Second Round at the US Open last season after coming through the Qualifiers and that followed successes on the Challenger circuit at this time of the season.

I don't think there will be a lot between these players, but I think Donskoy may have the edge having played plenty of hard court tennis in recent weeks compared with Struff. A narrow win is likely to be the outcome and I will back Donskoy to achieve that and cover this number of games.


Due to time constraints, picks from the Women's matches on Saturday will be set up in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Reilly Opelka + 3.5 games v John Isner: There were a couple of markets that leaped off the page as I looked through the two Atlanta Semi Finals and both involved the second Semi Final of the night. It is John Isner versus 'The New John Isner' Reilly Opelka and the youngster has played well enough to deserve more respect on the game handicap than I feel he is getting.

Both players have big serves that are going to be difficult to break and so getting this many games for Opelka at odds against looks too much to ignore.

Tiebreakers are likely to play a key part in this match and this potentially needs John Isner to break two more times than Opelka to come through with a cover of this number. It will be difficult to break the big serve once, let alone twice, while the Isner serve has been more vulnerable this summer than in previous years.

At odds against I have to say I do like Opelka's chances to keep this one competitive and I will back the younger player to do that.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Illya Marchenko + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 5th)

On Thursday the draw for the Olympic Games tennis tournament was made and it was an interesting one with some real stand out matches in the First Round of the 64 Single player tournament.

The one that will garner most of the headlines has to be Novak Djokovic taking on Juan Martin Del Potro in a rematch of the Bronze Medal match from four years ago. That is one tough start for the World Number 1 who would love to join Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in earning a Singles Gold Medal at the Olympic Games and Novak Djokovic will be confident of going all the way if he can get past a difficult First Round opponent.

Andy Murray should be happy with his draw as he looks to defend the Gold Medal he won four years ago in London and also make history as the first male player to win two Singles Gold Medals.

Serena Williams will also be looking to become the first female player to achieve that record and in the modern game it will be difficult for anyone to match that achievement going forward.

I will analyse the full Olympic draw in the Saturday post which will also include First Round picks from the matches that will open the tournament.


On Friday we will have the four Atlanta Quarter Finals and the Florianopolis Final played and I will have picks from those matches on this thread.

I am out on Thursday evening so I will not be able to add those picks until Friday, but that is still plenty of time before those matches will be scheduled to be played.


Irina-Camelia Begu - 1.5 games v Timea Babos: I did get my prediction wrong yesterday in feeling that Monica Puig would get the better of Irina-Camelia Begu in their Semi Final, but I did always feel the winner of that match would likely win this tournament in Florianopolis.

The Friday Final is a little strange but both players will be making their way to the Olympic Games tournament which starts on Saturday and I don't think tennis players will be that bothered what day they have to play the Final.

Both players are in good form heading into the Final, but I do think the edge has to go to Irina-Camelia Begu simply because Timea Babos is making too many mistakes behind her serve. Being broken five times in a match like she has in her last two matches is not going to cut it against Begu in this Final, while Babos has also been guilty of poor shot selections from the tennis I have seen this week.

I am a fan of what Babos can do on the court, but she will have to be at her very best to win this one and I think Begu has played very well herself this week. I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but ultimately Begu being a little more solid in that aspect of her game and that can see her edge past Babos in three sets while covering this small number.


Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: These players had a competitive three set match at the Canadian Masters last year in Montreal and now Nick Kyrgios and Fernando Verdasco meet for a place in the Atlanta Semi Finals.

I actually though the layers might have this as a pick 'em contest in which case I would have left it alone, but I am not sure Fernando Verdasco should be as big an underdog as he is. The Spaniard has had a good summer and been playing well, while his game is very suited to a slightly faster hard court.

Of course Nick Kyrgios' game is going to be huge on this type of surface, but I am not convinced he is either fully healthy or fully focused on his tennis right now. I am not ashamed to say I am a fan of Kyrgios, but I also know he is going to be someone who has these hot and cold periods depending on his mood.

It was only last week that Kyrgios admitted that he hadn't been practicing his tennis as much as he should be and his defeat against Denis Shapovalov last week in Toronto showed that. Someone like Verdasco has the big game to frustrate the Australian if he is still not fully at the races and I am going to back the veteran to keep this one competitive even if he is not able to pull the upset as my gut is telling me he will.


Reilly Opelka + 3.5 games v Donald Young: Reilly Opelka had the biggest win of his career to date in the last Round when beating Kevin Anderson and the young American is looking to back that up by getting to his first ATP Semi Final. I do worry about backing players after a major win, especially when it comes in upset fashion and when the winning player is not used to winning matches of that magnitude, but Opelka has had a couple of days to move on from that.

The 'New John Isner' is how Opelka has been described and you can see why as he is of similar stature and bases his game around a big serve. While that will be an improving weapon as he fills out, Opelka still gets plenty of joy from that shot and will be hoping to use that to full effect against Donald Young who is likely to get more balls in play than Kevin Anderson.

The latter had success against the Opelka serve too, but it was the return game which impressed me the most as Opelka broke the big South African serve four times and fashioned eighteen break points. That should be followed up against Young in this one, and I do think Opelka can keep this competitive.

Young got out of jail in the last Round and continues to struggle covering this number of games even in winning matches. His poor record in Atlanta has to be taken into account and Young will give Opelka chances to break serve which is important when you consider how many games he is being asked to cover. With the Opelka serve, I am backing the new young gun of American tennis to beat the former Young gun.


John Isner-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: This is a lot of games for John Isner and Taylor Fritz to combine up and cover especially if we see a straight sets win for either player. However I think the younger American, Fritz, has shown he can stay with big servers on the hard courts and I wouldn't be surprised if this match sees a couple of tie-breakers to produce a winning Semi Finalist.

When Fritz played Ivo Karlovic a couple of weeks ago, he struggled to get any kind of real read on the Croatian's big serve and will face a similar battle on Friday in this Quarter Final. That does mean he will be under pressure on the scoreboard knowing one break of serve is likely to be costly, but he restricted what Karlovic was able to do with his own serve.

You can't doubt that John Isner is a better player than Karlovic, but not by a huge distance and his backhand remains weak. Isner is also not at the same confidence level as Karlovic who has a lot wins over the summer compared with Isner who has earlier than expected losses in Washington and Toronto.

It has to be noted that Isner seems to enjoy the conditions in Atlanta having won the last three tournaments here and favoured to go on and make it four in a row. However he is not at his very best at the moment and that will give Taylor Fritz his chance in this one although I am simply looking for both players to serve well enough to force at least two long opening sets which can see them combine to get over this total.

MY PICKS: Irina-Camelia Begu - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-3, + 12.02 Units (24 Units Staked, + 50.08% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 4th)

While only the hard core tennis fans will be really interested in the tournaments being played on the Tour this week, most others might be anticipating the draw for the Olympic Games which will be made on Thursday.

The actual tennis tournament will begin on Saturday and go on for nine days through to a week on Sunday although the latest player to pull out of the event was Stan Wawrinka who has a back issue that needs rest. While the Olympic Games is important, Wawrinka made the right decision with two big Ranking events played in August, the latter being the start of the US Open in New York City.

The Swiss team will be missing Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Belinda Bencic while Martina Hingis has been left without a Mixed Doubles partner just days before the tournament was to begin.

I am guessing most players just want to get the tournament going now after the negative headlines regarding the players that won't be in Rio, but one returning player is Rafael Nadal who has announced that he will play in the Olympic Games. I hope that turns out to be the right decision with a sore wrist an issue, especially as any setback would likely see Nadal join Federer in sitting out the remainder of 2016.

After a poor opening couple of days, Wednesday has proved to be a more positive day of picks and I am looking for Thursday to back that up. That would give me some further momentum to take into a very big month of tennis if I can produce another winning week to back up a positive July and keep things ticking over in the direction I want.

Horacio Zeballos - 1.5 games v Tobias Kamke: The tournament in Atlanta is going to give some of the lower Ranked players a chance to earn some important points and both Horacio Zeballos and Tobias Kamke have to be looking at this event in that way. Neither player has a really strong record on the hard courts, but it is Zeballos who is already in a position to Qualify for the US Open directly.

That is because Zeballos has played more tournaments at the main Tour level compared with Kamke who is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings. Like his opponent, Kamke has been spending a lot more time on the clay courts than the hard courts this season but he has already lost here in Atlanta this week and only got into the main draw as a Lucky Loser.

Kamke did beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in the First Round in two tie-breakers which should give him confidence, but Zeballos had a really strong performance in his own win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. If the Argentinian is serving as well as he was a couple of days ago, Kamke is going to have a difficult time getting into position to break serve and that is why I give Zeballos the edge in this Second Round match.

There are some clear limitations to the Zeballos game, but he should have his own chances to break serve against a vulnerable shot that Kamke possesses. I wouldn't be surprised if we do three sets in this one as I am not convinced Zeballos can reach the same level he did in the First Round, but he should eventually come through 46, 64, 63.

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Only a Protected Ranking has given Julien Benneteau a way into this draw in Atlanta, but there is a lot of work ahead of him to improve his Number 406 World Ranking. The veteran Frenchman has been hit by the injury bug over the last couple of years which has hurt him, but there is still some fire that is burning in his belly to get back to the upper level of the Tour.

This might not be the match up that Benneteau would have wanted as Fernando Verdasco used to get the better of him when the former was in his prime. These players met four times between 2006 and 2013 and Fernando Verdasco won all four while dropping a single set.

You can point out that Verdasco is not the same player as when they last met in 2013, but this summer has been strong for him. He reached the Final in Bastad on the clay courts and Verdasco was dominant in his First Round win over Dusan Lajovic, far more comfortable than the final score might suggest.

If Verdasco is serving as well as he was, he will put Benneteau under pressure although I do have a healthy respect for the Frenchman. The faster surface should suit Verdasco and I think he can just get the better of Benneteau over the course of this match thanks to having a few more break points against a player still trying to find their consistency on a return to the Tour.


Timea Babos - 3.5 games v Ana Bogdan: It does seem strange to be writing about a Semi Final in a tennis tournament for a Thursday, but that is the case in Florianopolis where the organisers want to conclude the event before the Olympic Games tennis tournament begins on Saturday.

The first Semi Final is between Ana Bogdan and Timea Babos and the latter is a significant favourite in the match. I can't argue with that and I do think Babos can get the better of Bogdan on a hard court with the momentum she has built up through the week.

Bogdan spends the majority of her time playing clay court events and this is only the second hard court event she has played this week. However the Romanian has to be respected having played some solid tennis in Stanford before heading to Florianopolis where she beat the Number 1 Seed Jelena Jankovic and is yet to drop a set this week.

However this isn't a player that has had a lot of success at this level on this surface and Babos has played well enough to think she will have her successes in this one. She has a solid serve, even if it wasn't at its best on Wednesday, and Babos has enjoyed some really strong runs on the hard courts at the main Tour level over the last twelve months.

She can battle past Bogdan in this one with a 64, 64 scoreline taking Babos through to the Friday Final.


Monica Puig - 1.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: The second Semi Final in Florianopolis at least has a real look of a WTA Semi Final at this level. Both Monica Puig and Irina-Camelia Begu have been in fine form through this week against opponents that have been overmatched, but my lean is towards the favourite.

Out of the two players, Monica Puig has looked much more steady and she has been serving well. Puig has only been broken twice this week and has won at least 69% of the points behind serve in each match which should mean she can put some pressure on Begu in this match.

That pressure will increase if Begu is perhaps not serving as well as she could. Begu has been broken six times this week and twice has lost 41% of the points behind serve and Puig has the game to keep that going and create chances to break serve in this match.

It was Begu who won a very close match against Puig when they played on the clay courts in Charleston, but I do think the latter is a stronger hard court player. It has been feast or famine for Begu on the hard courts in 2016, but Puig has shown a little more consistency while I do think her serving has been in a superior place this week which can give her the edge in this match.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is close, but I am looking for Puig to produce the goods at the big moments and work her way to a 63, 36, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Horacio Zeballos - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-2, + 8.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 53.75% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 3rd)

We might only be in the middle of the week, but the tournament in Florianopolis has already reached the Quarter Final stage as they look to get that event done before the Olympic Games begin on Saturday.

The other event are taking a more recognisable course during their week as we will see half of the Second Round matches played in Atlanta and Nanchang on Wednesday and the other half on Thursday which means the final three days of the tournaments are left for the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Final.

I am not that interested in the Nanchang event with the lack of real quality in the field, while any picks from the matches that have not been set in Atlanta and Florianopolis will have to be added on Wednesday if they do make appeal.

For now I will concentrate on picks from the three ATP Second Round matches set in Atlanta for Wednesday.


Reilly Opelka + 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: Backing a former Junior Wimbledon Champion whose career has been stalled thanks to injuries might be dangerous when not getting that many games against someone as solid as Kevin Anderson. However Reilly Opelka is a big man with a big serve and while there is still room for improvement in his game, that serve alone could make him a dangerous player in years to come.

It won't be often that Anderson has to look up at an opponent, but that is the case in this Second Round match and the courts are playing fast enough to make Opelka a danger to the Seeded player. I do think the Opelka return game has plenty of room for improvement, but Anderson is also a limited returner and the chances of seeing tie-breakers and few break point chance can make this number of games very appealing.

Anderson played well in Toronto last week which might be a sign of a change in his performances in 2016, but he has been inconsistent through the season. While he will also have plenty of success behind the serve, the Opelka wing span might be able to get enough balls back in play to fashion mistakes, although the key to this match in respect of this spread is how well Anderson returns.

His own size will mean he will likely get more balls back in play than Opelka is perhaps going to be accustomed to, and that can cause problems. However this is a big serve that will take Anderson out of his comfort zone and the price on the handicap makes this appealing to back the young American with the head start.


Tim Smyczek + 3.5 games v Donald Young: This might be the closest tournament at home for Donald Young but he hasn't made use of that in the past with his First Round win being only his second ever win in the tournament. He is the favourite to move through to the Quarter Final, but Tim Smyczek will have something to say about that.

Smyczek had to come from a set down to beat Tiago Monteiro in the last Round, but the American did say he was feeling good about his game. He has not been in the best form of late and Smyczek has taken two heavy losses in Washington and Toronto before heading to Atlanta in a field in which he can make hay if building up some steam.

There won't be anything that the other player has not seen before with this being the sixteenth time that Young and Smyczek will face one another. Eight of the previous fifteen have been won by Young, although it is Smyczek that has won four in a row including in both matches played in 2016 and I can see this one being another tight match between them.

That makes this number of games appealing at odds against especially when you consider it is Smyczek who has been getting the better of their recent matches. Even though Young has been in better form of the two players in recent weeks, none of his three wins on the hard courts would have seen him cover this number. Add in the poor record in Atlanta overall and Smyczek can turn this into a competitive match and I will take the games.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: This has not been a productive time of the season as John Isner would have been hoping, but he can begin to turn things back around if he can win the title in Atlanta. He has won the title here in each of the last three seasons and Isner is looking to make it four in a row as he gets his tournament up and running against Adrian Mannarino.

Backing Isner to cover this number has not been productive for me over the last couple of weeks on the hard courts, but he has had his chances to break serve early enough to get into a position to cover. Isner created plenty of chances against the Adrian Mannarino serve when these players met in Indian Wells back in March and I think he will have the majority of chances in this one too.

It does have to be said that Isner has covered this number in two of his five wins over Mannarino and the latter can have a dangerous lefty serve which needs to be respected. However it does have to be said that the Frenchman has struggled on the hard court so far this summer and he will be under immense scoreboard pressure against Isner.

There is no doubting it is a big number when you consider the limited return game Isner possesses, but he has created seventeen break points in the last two matches against the Frenchman. If Isner can take his chances better than he did in his defeat to Ryan Harrison in Toronto last week, I do think he is capable of recording a 64, 64 win in this one.


Taylor Fritz - 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: There has been a lack of real American threats in the mens draws of recent tennis seasons ever since Andy Roddick retired and the likes of Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey and John Isner failed to fill that gap as effectively as fans would have liked. Now a new generation of American players are moving onto the Tour with some of those featuring here in Atlanta.

The leading name has to be Taylor Fritz who had a strong Junior career and has made a solid start to life on the ATP Tour through 2016. There is nothing wrong with having a losing record on the Tour in your first year and Fritz can say he has already pushed the likes of Roger Federer in matches and he has reached the Final in a tournament in Memphis.

The hard courts will be his favoured surface which is no surprise considering the nation of his birth and Fritz should be looking at Atlanta as a big chance to secure top Ranking points in what is a weak field compared to what he will see the rest of the summer.

Fritz had an easy win in the First Round, but it will be tougher against Bjorn Fratangelo although he hasn't been able to turn into a consistent performer at this level. While Fratangelo had a solid win on Tuesday evening, he has not had the best set of results on the hard courts this summer and has had a couple of poor losses in that time including last week against Andrew Whittington.

Both players will rely on their serve to put them in a position to win this match, but I think Fritz has the edge when it comes to the returning game. That should provide him the difference maker in the big moments of the match and I like the younger player to move through to the Quarter Final behind a 64, 64 win.


Irina-Camelia Begu - 3.5 games v Nao Hibino: The third Quarter Final in Florianopolis on Wednesday will be played between Irina-Camelia Begu and Nao Hibino and I do think the former is perhaps not rated as strongly as I thought she would be.

It is Begu who has had the tougher run through the weak draw having dropped the first set she played in Brazil, but she has bounced back by winning her next four sets comprehensively. There have been plenty of early losses on the hard courts for an inconsistent player like Begu, but the difference has been clear once she gets a couple of wins in an event under her belt as she uses the momentum very well.

Begu could not have asked for a better Quarter Final against an opponent who has struggled at this level through the season. Take away the two wins Hibino has had earlier this week and she would be 5-9 on the hard courts this season while her defeats tend to be one sided and that is a concern for the young Japanese player.

Looking back through her hard court losses, Hibino would have come within this number once in her last twenty-two hard court defeats. Hibino's serve is vulnerable and Begu should have the edge off the ground which is likely to lead to a 63, 64 kind of win for the higher Ranked player and a move through to the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Reilly Opelka + 3.5 Games @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Smyczek + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 2nd)

I didn't make any tennis picks from the Monday offerings because I simply didn't find any value from the limited matches on offer.

On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches in Atlanta will be completed, while the tournament in Florianopolis will move onto the Second Round as they look to get that event completed before the Olympic Games tennis begins on Saturday.

After a solid month of July, I am looking for another good week of picks to put into the books and keep the momentum rolling as we move further into August.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: Last year was a rarity for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in recent seasons on the Tour as he finished 2015 with a winning record. That is the only winning record he has had in the last five years on the Tour, but the Spaniard is in a position to make it back to back years with a winning record for the first time since 2010.

Recent weeks have been difficult for Garcia-Lopez who will be hoping a move to the hard courts can help him change his form. It hasn't been the best surface for him in recent years and he has a losing record on the hard courts since 2010, but there is enough to like about his game against Horacio Zeballos who hasn't had much joy on this surface.

The latter hasn't played a lot of hard court tennis in recent years and is coming off the clay courts to take in this tournament in Atlanta. Horacio Zeballos is dangerous thanks to the lefty serve which can be difficult for players to read, but he can struggle with the consistency and speed coming through the courts.

I will admit it is hard to fully trust Garcia-Lopez considering the relatively weak serve and poor form he has been in. The hard courts are also not his favourite surface, but he does enjoy more success on these courts than Zeballos and I think that can be a key in a very tight match that can see Garcia-Lopez edge through 76, 64.


Sergiy Stakhovsky - 1.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The withdrawals from the Olympic Games meant there were late invitations for other players who had missed the cut. One of those was Sergiy Stakhovsky but he decided he won't make changes to his schedule and will play in Atlanta for important Ranking points rather than accept the chance to play in Rio de Janeiro.

The only way it will be seen by him and his team in being the right decision is if Stakhovsky can have a decent week in his first tournament back on the hard courts. It won't come easy as he will be faced by Ivan Dodig in the First Round, although the latter has lost six of his last seven matches including on the hard courts this summer.

That means Dodig has lost his last six matches on the hard courts and it is hard to stem that poor trend if the Croatian is not quite at full health. Dodig did play Borna Coric tough last week in Toronto, and his serve can be a dangerous weapon when firing at full potential.

Both players will look for their serve-volley game to dominate the other and it looks like it will be a close match between them. Like Dodig, Stakhovsky doesn't have a strong record on the hard courts at the main Tour level, but he has won a Challenger title on the surface in 2016 and I think he will have a slight edge from a fitness level to come through 64, 67, 63.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Both Fernando Verdasco and Dusan Lajovic have had some solid results since the end of Wimbledon, but those have come on the clay courts in Europe and now they play one another on the North American hard courts.

I can see both players coming into the match with confidence, but there is a clear difference in the results each has produced on the hard courts. Over the last three seasons, Dusan Lajovic is just 7-17 on the hard courts at the main Tour level and just 12-8 in either Challenger or Qualifiers level.

That isn't to say that Fernando Verdasco has been dominating on the hard courts, but he is 26-25 over the same period as the Lajovic results with all of those matches at the main Tour level. While it was Lajovic that won their previous match on a clay court, the hard courts should give Verdasco the edge with his power being able to hit through the courts and taking away some of the defensive work the Serbian can produce.

This is still a lot of games for Verdasco to cover, especially when you look at the results and see that the Spaniard struggles with this number on the hard courts. However I have seen Lajovic have a hard time staying with opponents once they pick up his serve, which is not the biggest, and Verdasco can have enough joy to find a 63, 64 win out of this one.


Monica Puig - 5.5 games v Olga Savchuk: The way Monica Puig plays her tennis means she is always liable to producing games filled with errors. There is plenty of aggression to like from the Puig game, but being slightly out of sync means a host of errors occur which will give her opponents confidence to upset her.

It will be a huge upset if Olga Savchuk is able to get the better of Puig when they meet on the hard courts of Florianopolis on Tuesday. This is a player that hasn't shown much form in recent weeks with plenty of losses behind her, while Savchuk has taken some heavy losses on the hard courts as players break down her game.

Savchuk would be 1-9 in her last ten losses on the hard courts when it comes to getting within this number and she is just 1-6 overall on this surface in Qualifiers or lower level tournament than the main Tour through 2016. The Ukrainian has taken some heavy losses to players that are not of the same level of Puig, although the latter is just 2-3 on the Tour since her surprising run to the Eastbourne Semi Finals.

However Puig has had the majority of her wins on the hard courts and she was an impressive winner in the First Round. As long as Puig is serving well, she should have her chances in this one to break serve consistently and I think she will eventually wear down a player that doesn't face opponents of this level too often. After a battle in the first set, I look for Puig to move through the gears and see off Savchuk 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sergiy Stakhovsky - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 31st)

The Quarter Finals are next up on deck in the various tournaments that are being played this week as we have reached the business end of the events. Next week the next ATP 500 event is played in Washington and that will see the return of more big names, but first Rafael Nadal will want to end his week at the current ATP 500 event in Hamburg with a title to his name.

He hasn't been at his best so far this week with the serve being particularly vulnerable, but Nadal has battled through two tough matches to move into the Quarter Finals where he faces a tough challenge in the form of Pablo Cuevas.

They had a very closely contested match earlier this season and Cuevas is a solid clay court player, although you will see that I still think Nadal is capable of winning and moving into another clay court Semi Final.


Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: These two players have gone 1-1 in their two previous meetings against one another as professionals, but Dominic Thiem is a much improved player these days and I expect him to get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta.

The Spaniard is obviously very comfortable on clay courts and has won Challenger titles on the surface, but Dominic Thiem has won titles on this surface at the main Tour level. While Carreno Busta will likely be a solid player on the Tour, Thiem has the talent to be a regular in the top ten as he can play effectively on clay and hard courts.

Winning the title in Umag was another confidence boost for the youngster and he backed up that win with an impressive performance against Federico Delbonis. Thiem has a solid serve, but is very effective off both wings when playing with confidence and that could be a key for him to overcome Carreno Busta.

Carreno Busta has played well on the clay in lower level tournaments, but the surprise is that he hasn't been able to take that into the main Tour level as he has lost more matches than he has won despite winning two more this week. He beat Robin Haase in the Second Round, but the Dutchman missed his chances and I don't think Thiem is as generous as he wins 64, 64.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: I like to give credit to any player that is basically getting the best out of their own potential and Joao Sousa is definitely one of those. His game is solid, but Sousa doesn't have a lot of power and there isn't any one aspect of his game that really stands out.

Except one thing... He is mentally very strong to be able to go out on Tour and beat players that are arguably more talented and Sousa has to be given a lot of credit for that. Unfortunately I think he will always come up short against the very best players simply because they are less likely to mentally fall away in matches and David Goffin has been playing very well over the last twelve months.

The Belgian player is up to World Number 14 in the Rankings and he has had a couple of solid runs this season while showing his ability to play on any surface. I think the lack of power may prevent Goffin from winning multiple Grand Slams, but he may feast on some of the players below him during his career with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play and dominate longer rallies.

Goffin isn't just someone who plays defensively by using his movement to get balls back in play and wear players down. He has the quality to turn rallies into his favour and I think he can do that against Sousa despite how comfortable the latter is on the clay courts.

It could be a punishing match for both players, but I think Goffin will begin to wear Sousa down who had a much tougher Second Round match on Thursday. That may eventually lead to a 64, 64 win for Goffin and a place in the Semi Final.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Two Frenchmen meet in this Quarter Final and it is only the recent amount of tennis that Benoit Paire has played which is reducing my enthusiasm for him to see off Lucas Pouille. Paire has won the title in Bastad last week, but has also had to go three sets to win his two matches this week and I do wonder if that has sapped anything he had left in the tank.

If there is still something left for Paire, I would consider him a healthy favourite to win this match as Lucas Pouille has struggled on the clay on the main Tour before this week. Pouille has also suffered some losses to players far below those he has met so far this week and I think Paire can use his heavier game to wear him down and end the run.

As much tennis as Paire has had to play, Pouille has also come through the qualifiers as well as two matches in the main draw so his own physical well being has to be questioned.

Confidence can have a big impact on matches and you have to think Paire will have the edge in that department and can make that tell in the match. He looks to be getting back to something near his best over the last ten days and I don't think Paire will be ready for it to end here as he beats Pouille 75, 64 for me.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: The serving of Rafael Nadal has been below par all week as he has been forced to dig deep to win those games, but his return game hasn't been out of sync. That has enabled the former undisputed 'King of Clay' a chance to work his way into games and come through to the Quarter Final, but Nadal needs to raise his game again as he gets set to face Pablo Cuevas.

It has been a strong season for Cuevas who reached a career-high Ranking earlier this year and he has had a couple of solid wins this week to back up his Semi Final run in Bastad last week. He will be used to having big weeks at this time of the season as Cuevas won back to back titles last season in Bastad and Umag, although facing Nadal is always a difficult challenge.

You can tell confidence is short in Nadal's game simply with the way he has struggled to protect his serve, but I think he is playing well enough to take the title here. He just needs to tighten up his game a little bit and Nadal should prove too good for a player that hasn't been playing that well this week.

Cuevas has come through two matches with a bit more difficulty than he would have expected and I think Nadal can find a way to break his game down. I do think Nadal will need to serve better, but even a little bit better than Thursday should be enough for a 64, 63 win.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Go Soeda: Both players have had some impressive wins this week for different seasons- Gilles Muller has been a comfortable winner in both of his matches, while Go Soeda has upset two players in a row which will give him a lot of confidence.

It will help if Soeda can put his matches with Muller to the back of the mind as he has lost all four previous matches while winning just one set. In fact, three of the matches has seen Muller win by wide margins on the scoreboard including in Atlanta three years ago.

You can perhaps understand why that has happened too. Muller has a huge serve in terms of pace and placement and it will be tough for Soeda to get involved in a lot of those games which in turn puts pressure on him to keep up on the scoreboard. The Soeda serve is already one of the weaker ones on Tour and this additional pressure sees him crack, especially as Muller is someone who will look to attack the net and make his opponent pass him under pressure.

I imagine something similar happening in this Quarter Final as long as Muller can serve well. If he does that, I do expect Soeda to crack twice in a 63, 75 defeat.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.14 Units (38 Units Staked, + 18.79% Yield)