The Medal matches in the men's tournament at the Olympic Games in Rio take place on Sunday with the Bronze Medal match followed by the Gold Medal match this afternoon.
We also have the beginning of the Cincinnati Masters on Sunday with that being the last major tournament before the US Open begins on Monday 29th August, although it is an event that will miss Novak Djokovic.
The rest of the top players are in the draw which should make it a very good one, but it is going to be a rude awakening for some of the players that have been playing in the Olympics as the Cincinnati courts will play a lot faster than the ones in Rio. That is going to take some adjustment going forward for those players, which might make the early Rounds a little difficult to make picks from, but hopefully I can make the right choices to keep the momentum behind the picks.
It has been difficult over the last couple of days as the picks have gone 3-6, but the overall weekly record has been strong. That is keeping the positive trend going since Wimbledon and I am looking to end the Olympic Games with a couple of wins to put the exclamation point on a successful week.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The player trying to get over the bigger disappointment in this Bronze Medal match has to be Rafael Nadal who was beaten in a final set tie-breaker on Saturday. That came after taking the first set against Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am wondering what kind of physical state Kei Nishikori is in after a pretty tame Semi Final performance after a really difficult Quarter Final against Gael Monfils.
It is Nadal who has managed to get the better of Nishikori in their previous matches with nine wins from ten matches between them. That includes two wins in 2016 with one of those coming on the hard courts in Indian Wells as the underdog and I think he does hold the slight edge in this one.
I would always consider Nadal the superior player when it comes to natural fitness, but he is coming off a long lay-off which has to be a concern. Nadal might already have achieved his goals in Rio having won the Gold Medal in the Doubles tournament, but he doesn't strike me as someone who plays any tennis match without putting in every ounce of effort he has in his body and I think that will give him a slight edge in this one.
Nishikori is a tough competitor but he is more likely to have a few physical issues after a long week in Brazil and I think Nadal can win this one in three sets as he comes through 63, 36, 64.
Juan Martin Del Potro-Andy Murray over 36.5 games: Andy Murray has made plenty of history for British tennis having broken the curse of winning Grand Slams as a male player as well as the long wait for a Wimbledon Champion. However he now has the chance to make overall tennis history by becoming the first player to win two Gold Medals at the Olympic Games in the Singles tournament.
That would be an incredible achievement for a player who looks capable of finishing the year as the World Number 1 as he will go into the US Open as arguably the favourite to win. There might not be any Ranking points at stake, but Murray will be desperate to improve his legacy with another Gold Medal, although a rejuvenated Juan Martin Del Potro will hope to add Gold Medal to the Bronze Medal he won in London four years ago.
The run has been a memorable one for Del Potro having beaten World Number 1 Novak Djokovic and then beating Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final. This is maybe a bigger test for Del Potro because the question is can he cover the obvious weaknesses at the backhand wing for long enough to bring that powerhouse forehand in play? Secondly, can that forehand puncture the Murray defences on a court that has played slowly this week?
Murray will also earn cheaper points off the serve than Djokovic and Nadal and I think he is the more likely winner. However Murray hasn't always been at his best this week himself and is dealing with the pressure of making history and I do think Del Potro can at least take a set. Backing the games to be covered in this one looks the best option for the Gold Medal game.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro-Andy Murray Over 36.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 26-19, + 7.68 Units (88 Units Staked, + 8.73% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Rio 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rio 2016. Show all posts
Sunday, 14 August 2016
Friday, 12 August 2016
Olympic Games Tennis Picks 2016 (August 12th)
There was no need for a new post for the Olympic Games tennis picks on Thursday as the entire Wednesday schedule had been rained out but things are back on track going into the final three days of the tournament here.
The Tour will then move on to Cincinnati where the final Masters ahead of the US Open is to take place, although it was announced that Novak Djokovic would miss that event. The World Number 1 is apparently suffering with a wrist issue and Cincinnati has never gelled well with Djokovic as the faster surfaces have seen players able to hit through him.
It might also make Andy Murray the favourite to win the US Open and the British Number 1 is definitely favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal for the second time in his career after coming through a scare against Fabio Fognini. The latter had been up a break in the final set but lost five games in a row to see Murray move into the Quarter Finals although the conditions in Rio have been difficult with plenty of wind affecting the timing of the ball.
Hopefully the conditions will settle down in the last three days so we can see some top tennis and on Friday it is all about the men's Quarter Finals and women's Semi Finals.
It looks like being another strong week for the tennis picks after the matches saw a 5-2 record come out of Thursday and it would have been even better if Rafael Nadal had served out the match in the second set when he was broken by Gilles Simon. I won't be greedy though as I look to put another serious dent into the season totals and I have set myself an ambition of getting back into the positive before the US Open begins at the end of the month.
That is a challenge and will need a lot of winning picks to get back into the black, but it has been a very strong seven weeks since the beginning of Wimbledon when I was certain it was going to be a disappointing back to back losing seasons.
I just have to keep focused and make sure I can continue reading matches as well as I have and also receive the bit of luck that everyone making picks will be looking for.
I will have the Friday picks up in a few hours once the full markets are available.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Monica Puig: There can't be too many players in better form than Monica Puig at the moment who has breezed through the Olympic draw to ensure she will be competing for a Medal on Saturday. Whether that is the Gold or the Bronze is yet to be determined, but Puig has made it clear how much she is thriving playing for her country this week.
It follows a run to the Semi Final in Florianopolis last week and my concern for Puig is at what point does all of the tennis begin to affect her game? I think she has been helped by breezing through the draw in the manner she has and Puig is yet to drop a set and only fourteen games in her four matches so far this week. Back to back 6-1, 6-1 wins in the Third Round and Quarter Final will only increase the confidence she is clearly feeling.
And it is not as though Puig has faced poor players with wins over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and the complete wipeout of Garbine Muguruza the stand out results. However she is going to be facing a very dangerous Petra Kvitova in the Semi Final who has only dropped a single set herself and one who dropped just two games to Serena Williams' conquerer Elina Svitolina in the Quarter Final.
This is only the second Semi Final that Kvitova will be playing this season which might play a part in the match, but she has looked confident in her matches this week too. Kvitova can be erratic and hard to judge on a day by day basis, but I am giving her the edge with Grand Slam titles under her belt compared with Monica Puig who is playing her biggest match of her career.
Puig doesn't have the best record against top 20 opponents and I will look for Kvitova to use all of her experience to battle through to the Gold Medal match behind a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: It has already been a memorable 2016 season for Angelique Kerber but I don't think that means she is going to be satisfied with what she has achieved so far. Winning the Australian Open Final and reaching the Wimbledon Final has given Kerber a new found confidence and she will believe she can go on and win the Gold Medal here in Rio.
Her Semi Final is going to be far from straight-forward against Madison Keys who is beginning to reach the business end of tournaments more regularly. A lot of hype has surrounded Keys with her impressive serve and big hitting off the ground, but there is still room for improvement from the young American and some of her vulnerabilities can be attacked by Kerber.
I am still not convinced Keys has the consistency to beat someone as defensively strong as Kerber, a player that can also quickly turn the tables on opponents. A 'better version' of Keys in Serena Williams has struggled in her matches with the German who can get enough serves back in play and deep enough to prevent the quick strike tennis that both Serena and Keys will look to play.
This could easily be a breakthrough tournament for Keys if she can get past Kerber, but it has been a more difficult route through to the Semi Final for the American. Having to play one more ball than she is accustomed to will also likely see Keys going for the lines a little more and that in turn leads to more unforced errors, while Kerber is good enough to go for plenty of winners of her own.
Kerber has a strong 4-1 head to head advantage over Keys which includes a straight sets win over her in Miami back in March. The conditions might make it difficult for Keys to hit through Kerber consistently and I think the Aussie Open Champion will be playing in the Gold Medal game on Saturday behind a 64, 64 win.
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This was the one Quarter Final I was really interested to see how the layers priced up as I thought Roberto Bautista Agut deserved to go in as the favourite. The bigger name is clearly Juan Martin Del Potro who has won the US Open and also had the stand out result in the men's draw when beating Novak Djokovic in the First Round earlier in the week.
The wins over Joao Sousa and Taro Daniel came with some effort from Del Potro and he now faces a player in Bautista Agut who can be very good defensively and eased past big serving Gilles Muller on Thursday.
A key for the Spaniard is going to be getting into rallies with Del Potro, who I am very glad to see producing big results again. The backhand wing still remains an issue for Del Potro and while the forehand is a cannon, getting Del Potro moving on the run to that side will give Bautista Agut a chance of extracting mistakes.
My fear for Bautista Agut is that the serve can be a bit of a let down for him and this isn't a lot of games to receive, but I do think he is good enough to take a set. In fact I think he is playing well enough to think he can win the match outright and even this small number of games can be telling if the Spaniard is playing to the level he can. He has to try and wear the big man down in this one and try not to give too much away, but Bautista Agut can do that and I will take the games being offered to him.
Gael Monfils + 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: One of the best looking Quarter Finals in the men's draw has to be Gael Monfils taking on Kei Nishikori as both have been in some stunning form over the last few weeks. Monfils won the title in Washington before reaching the Semi Final of the Canadian Masters, while Nishikori managed to reach the Canadian Masters Final.
Their two previous matches have also been highly competitive as they have needed to go the distance each time, but there is more on the line this time with a chance to move into the Medal matches for the winner.
Picking a winner is difficult as there are strengths and weaknesses for both players that do seem to match up well against each other. It is Monfils who has the edge in serve and athleticism around the court, but Nishikori can sometimes be the more aggressive player off the ground meaning he can push and pull the Frenchman around the court and dictate the play.
Monfils did need three sets to beat Marin Cilic on Thursday so tiredness is a factor, although he showed in Washington and Toronto that he can handle a lot of tennis in a short period of time. I can see both players producing a lot of flashy tennis in this one and it should be the most enjoyable match to watch, but I have leaned towards Monfils with this number of games on the board.
When they met in Miami it was missed opportunities to break serve which cost Monfils, but he looks to be returning even better at the moment. The Nishikori serve will give him chances and I think Monfils is at the height of his confidence and can certainly keep this one competitive throughout. It looks like it could go right down to the wire as their match in Miami did and I will take the games and look for Monfils to perhaps even pull the 'upset' as the underdog.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: One poor service game cost Rafael Nadal the cover on Thursday, but the Spaniard won't care about that as he still moved through to the Quarter Final. A former Olympic Gold Medal winner, Rafael Nadal has to be the favourite to get to the Gold Medal match from the top half of the draw, although he is going to be in a rare position of not being the crowd favourite in this Quarter Final.
In the past Nadal has received huge support from the Brazilian crowd and all week he has received massive support, but taking on home favourite Thomaz Bellucci in a Davis Cup kind of atmosphere is going to see that support shift to Bellucci. I don't think Nadal will be overly concerned about that and might even thrive in what will be a tremendous atmosphere on Friday.
It has already been a strong week for Bellucci but getting to play for a Medal at his home Olympics is only going to be motivating him even more. He rode his luck at times to win the first set against David Goffin in the Third Round to pull the upset, while Bellucci was the beneficiary of Dustin Brown's unfortunate injury in the First Round.
The confidence has to be improving, but I can't help feel that things have gone Bellucci's way so far and playing Rafael Nadal is an altogether different test. The lefty advantage is gone and Nadal has beaten Bellucci all five previous times they have met and the Spaniard would have covered this number in the first two sets of all of those wins (four of five been played at Grand Slam level, Nadal won 14/14 previous sets).
I don't know if Nadal is ready to beat the best players on the Tour, but he has played well this week and a slightly better serving display than yesterday should give him a serious edge in this match. Bellucci had lost eight of nine matches on the hard courts before his wins in the Olympic Games and he would be 2-5 in covering this number over two sets with another loss coming via retirement.
I will be looking for Nadal to be a little better when the break points come his way and just play a little more solid behind his serve to help him to a 75, 63 win in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Tennis Update: 23-12, + 14.96 Units (70 Units Staked, + 21.37% Yield)
The Tour will then move on to Cincinnati where the final Masters ahead of the US Open is to take place, although it was announced that Novak Djokovic would miss that event. The World Number 1 is apparently suffering with a wrist issue and Cincinnati has never gelled well with Djokovic as the faster surfaces have seen players able to hit through him.
It might also make Andy Murray the favourite to win the US Open and the British Number 1 is definitely favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal for the second time in his career after coming through a scare against Fabio Fognini. The latter had been up a break in the final set but lost five games in a row to see Murray move into the Quarter Finals although the conditions in Rio have been difficult with plenty of wind affecting the timing of the ball.
Hopefully the conditions will settle down in the last three days so we can see some top tennis and on Friday it is all about the men's Quarter Finals and women's Semi Finals.
It looks like being another strong week for the tennis picks after the matches saw a 5-2 record come out of Thursday and it would have been even better if Rafael Nadal had served out the match in the second set when he was broken by Gilles Simon. I won't be greedy though as I look to put another serious dent into the season totals and I have set myself an ambition of getting back into the positive before the US Open begins at the end of the month.
That is a challenge and will need a lot of winning picks to get back into the black, but it has been a very strong seven weeks since the beginning of Wimbledon when I was certain it was going to be a disappointing back to back losing seasons.
I just have to keep focused and make sure I can continue reading matches as well as I have and also receive the bit of luck that everyone making picks will be looking for.
I will have the Friday picks up in a few hours once the full markets are available.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Monica Puig: There can't be too many players in better form than Monica Puig at the moment who has breezed through the Olympic draw to ensure she will be competing for a Medal on Saturday. Whether that is the Gold or the Bronze is yet to be determined, but Puig has made it clear how much she is thriving playing for her country this week.
It follows a run to the Semi Final in Florianopolis last week and my concern for Puig is at what point does all of the tennis begin to affect her game? I think she has been helped by breezing through the draw in the manner she has and Puig is yet to drop a set and only fourteen games in her four matches so far this week. Back to back 6-1, 6-1 wins in the Third Round and Quarter Final will only increase the confidence she is clearly feeling.
And it is not as though Puig has faced poor players with wins over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and the complete wipeout of Garbine Muguruza the stand out results. However she is going to be facing a very dangerous Petra Kvitova in the Semi Final who has only dropped a single set herself and one who dropped just two games to Serena Williams' conquerer Elina Svitolina in the Quarter Final.
This is only the second Semi Final that Kvitova will be playing this season which might play a part in the match, but she has looked confident in her matches this week too. Kvitova can be erratic and hard to judge on a day by day basis, but I am giving her the edge with Grand Slam titles under her belt compared with Monica Puig who is playing her biggest match of her career.
Puig doesn't have the best record against top 20 opponents and I will look for Kvitova to use all of her experience to battle through to the Gold Medal match behind a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: It has already been a memorable 2016 season for Angelique Kerber but I don't think that means she is going to be satisfied with what she has achieved so far. Winning the Australian Open Final and reaching the Wimbledon Final has given Kerber a new found confidence and she will believe she can go on and win the Gold Medal here in Rio.
Her Semi Final is going to be far from straight-forward against Madison Keys who is beginning to reach the business end of tournaments more regularly. A lot of hype has surrounded Keys with her impressive serve and big hitting off the ground, but there is still room for improvement from the young American and some of her vulnerabilities can be attacked by Kerber.
I am still not convinced Keys has the consistency to beat someone as defensively strong as Kerber, a player that can also quickly turn the tables on opponents. A 'better version' of Keys in Serena Williams has struggled in her matches with the German who can get enough serves back in play and deep enough to prevent the quick strike tennis that both Serena and Keys will look to play.
This could easily be a breakthrough tournament for Keys if she can get past Kerber, but it has been a more difficult route through to the Semi Final for the American. Having to play one more ball than she is accustomed to will also likely see Keys going for the lines a little more and that in turn leads to more unforced errors, while Kerber is good enough to go for plenty of winners of her own.
Kerber has a strong 4-1 head to head advantage over Keys which includes a straight sets win over her in Miami back in March. The conditions might make it difficult for Keys to hit through Kerber consistently and I think the Aussie Open Champion will be playing in the Gold Medal game on Saturday behind a 64, 64 win.
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This was the one Quarter Final I was really interested to see how the layers priced up as I thought Roberto Bautista Agut deserved to go in as the favourite. The bigger name is clearly Juan Martin Del Potro who has won the US Open and also had the stand out result in the men's draw when beating Novak Djokovic in the First Round earlier in the week.
The wins over Joao Sousa and Taro Daniel came with some effort from Del Potro and he now faces a player in Bautista Agut who can be very good defensively and eased past big serving Gilles Muller on Thursday.
A key for the Spaniard is going to be getting into rallies with Del Potro, who I am very glad to see producing big results again. The backhand wing still remains an issue for Del Potro and while the forehand is a cannon, getting Del Potro moving on the run to that side will give Bautista Agut a chance of extracting mistakes.
My fear for Bautista Agut is that the serve can be a bit of a let down for him and this isn't a lot of games to receive, but I do think he is good enough to take a set. In fact I think he is playing well enough to think he can win the match outright and even this small number of games can be telling if the Spaniard is playing to the level he can. He has to try and wear the big man down in this one and try not to give too much away, but Bautista Agut can do that and I will take the games being offered to him.
Gael Monfils + 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: One of the best looking Quarter Finals in the men's draw has to be Gael Monfils taking on Kei Nishikori as both have been in some stunning form over the last few weeks. Monfils won the title in Washington before reaching the Semi Final of the Canadian Masters, while Nishikori managed to reach the Canadian Masters Final.
Their two previous matches have also been highly competitive as they have needed to go the distance each time, but there is more on the line this time with a chance to move into the Medal matches for the winner.
Picking a winner is difficult as there are strengths and weaknesses for both players that do seem to match up well against each other. It is Monfils who has the edge in serve and athleticism around the court, but Nishikori can sometimes be the more aggressive player off the ground meaning he can push and pull the Frenchman around the court and dictate the play.
Monfils did need three sets to beat Marin Cilic on Thursday so tiredness is a factor, although he showed in Washington and Toronto that he can handle a lot of tennis in a short period of time. I can see both players producing a lot of flashy tennis in this one and it should be the most enjoyable match to watch, but I have leaned towards Monfils with this number of games on the board.
When they met in Miami it was missed opportunities to break serve which cost Monfils, but he looks to be returning even better at the moment. The Nishikori serve will give him chances and I think Monfils is at the height of his confidence and can certainly keep this one competitive throughout. It looks like it could go right down to the wire as their match in Miami did and I will take the games and look for Monfils to perhaps even pull the 'upset' as the underdog.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: One poor service game cost Rafael Nadal the cover on Thursday, but the Spaniard won't care about that as he still moved through to the Quarter Final. A former Olympic Gold Medal winner, Rafael Nadal has to be the favourite to get to the Gold Medal match from the top half of the draw, although he is going to be in a rare position of not being the crowd favourite in this Quarter Final.
In the past Nadal has received huge support from the Brazilian crowd and all week he has received massive support, but taking on home favourite Thomaz Bellucci in a Davis Cup kind of atmosphere is going to see that support shift to Bellucci. I don't think Nadal will be overly concerned about that and might even thrive in what will be a tremendous atmosphere on Friday.
It has already been a strong week for Bellucci but getting to play for a Medal at his home Olympics is only going to be motivating him even more. He rode his luck at times to win the first set against David Goffin in the Third Round to pull the upset, while Bellucci was the beneficiary of Dustin Brown's unfortunate injury in the First Round.
The confidence has to be improving, but I can't help feel that things have gone Bellucci's way so far and playing Rafael Nadal is an altogether different test. The lefty advantage is gone and Nadal has beaten Bellucci all five previous times they have met and the Spaniard would have covered this number in the first two sets of all of those wins (four of five been played at Grand Slam level, Nadal won 14/14 previous sets).
I don't know if Nadal is ready to beat the best players on the Tour, but he has played well this week and a slightly better serving display than yesterday should give him a serious edge in this match. Bellucci had lost eight of nine matches on the hard courts before his wins in the Olympic Games and he would be 2-5 in covering this number over two sets with another loss coming via retirement.
I will be looking for Nadal to be a little better when the break points come his way and just play a little more solid behind his serve to help him to a 75, 63 win in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Tennis Update: 23-12, + 14.96 Units (70 Units Staked, + 21.37% Yield)
Wednesday, 10 August 2016
Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 10th)
The World Number 1 on the ATP Tour has already been knocked out of the Olympic Games and he was joined by the World Number 1 player on the WTA Tour and defending Olympic Champion Serena Williams on Tuesday.
That was another big upset in the tournament as Williams was beaten in straight sets by Elina Svitolina and she can now head back to the United States to get ready for Cincinnati and the US Open later this month. Serena Williams has not looked at the races in her three matches in Rio and she has also been beaten in the Women's Doubles with her sister Venus Williams and her Singles loss has opened up the Gold Medal prospects for the remaining eight players in the draw.
Those Quarter Final matches are due to be played on Wednesday along with the Third Round men's matches but the weather doesn't make it too promising for tennis. That might be good news for British hope Johanna Konta who spent a long time on court on Tuesday and will need to be at her physical best if she is going to get past Angelique Kerber in the Quarter Final.
So far it has been a very good tournament for the picks after a strong day on Tuesday moved the totals in a positive direction. I hope I can keep this momentum going and finish this week on a high to take into the Cincinnati Masters and Premier Event which is going to be played next week.
Another dent in the season totals would be very good to keep the positive trend going as we head towards the US Open.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: The rain might be the big equaliser for Johanna Konta in this Quarter Final against Angelique Kerber and the British Number 1 could do with a delay in proceedings. Konta was forced to spend a lot of time on court on Tuesday which has to have had a physical effect on her and someone like Kerber can play enough balls to expose any tiredness that might be in the legs.
While Konta was spending over three hours on court, Kerber came through what looked a testing match very comfortably against Samantha Stosur. With Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza exiting the tournament on Tuesday, Kerber is going to be a big favourite to add the Gold Medal to the Australian Open title she won earlier this year.
The German has been serving well enough, but she has been particularly good when it comes to the big points which has helped her come through the draw without dropping a set. I do think the Konta first serve is arguably better than Kerber's but the latter will make plenty of returns and has the consistency around the court to earn her second win over Konta in the 2016 season.
I just think Kerber won't make the same number of unforced errors in this one and physical tiredness does lead to mental mistakes. The Australian Open Champion can win this one 64, 64 with a half decent serving display and move through to the Semi Final.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: It has been a difficult 2016 season for Petra Kvitova who hasn't had the consistency that she would have liked. However her win over Ekaterina Makarova in the Third Round at the Olympic Games and Kvitova is now favourite to reach only her second Semi Final of the 2016 season.
She will need to be wary as she goes up against Elina Svitolina who has been in good form and earned the stand out win of the tournament when beating Serena Williams on Tuesday. Backing up that win might be tough from a mental perspective as it can be for any upset winner and Svitolina will do well to put that victory to the back of her mind.
Svitolina was helped by a lot of mistakes from Serena Williams who didn't look comfortable in the conditions, but I do think Kvitova has enjoyed the courts here. The issue I am having in backing Kvitova is her inconsistency which makes this a difficult number of games to cover, but I still believe Svitolina is more likely to drop a set with a couple of breaks of serve going against her.
It is difficult to back up a monumental win like the one Svitolina only had on Tuesday and I think the draw has opened up for Kvitova to have her best result of the year. There should be a few breaks of serve but I think Kvitova will eventually wear down Svitolina in a 46, 64, 62 win.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: Steve Johnson has made it comfortably through the draw into this Third Round match and I think he is a deserving favourite to see off Evgeny Donskoy. The Russian had a memorable win on Tuesday as he came from a set and a break down to beat David Ferrer in three sets, but that took a big physical effort and little time to recover makes it difficult for Donskoy.
I have to give Donskoy credit for taking his fine recent form at the Challenger level into the Olympic Games, but this is a significant test for him. Steve Johnson has been serving very effectively and does just enough in return games to find a couple of breaks of serve and he is a strong front runner.
If Donskoy was to slip behind in this one, Steve Johnson is playing well enough to put the foot down on the accelerator and really put the pressure on the Russian to get back into the match. As well as Donskoy has played, he has offered up break point chances and doing that against Johnson will be costly as the American is not giving up so many opportunities on his own serve.
I do think Johnson has the bigger game and that can come out in this Third Round match. Both players will be confident, but Donskoy has a lot of tennis and travel in his legs of late and I will back Johnson to find a way to a 63, 64 kind of win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: With Novak Djokovic out of the draw, both Gilles Muller and Roberto Bautista Agut have to feel they have every chance of earning a Medal at the Olympic Games. Juan Martin Del Potro is a threat in the top half as is Rafael Nadal, but both Muller and Bautista Agut might feel there are vulnerabilities they can expose if they can get past this Third Round encounter.
It is a match up of styles that should blend together for a very good match.
Muller will look to use a big serve and plenty of aggression from the forehand and at the net, while Bautista Agut might believe his returning ability and defensive skills can force mistakes from the big lefty. Their last two matches have been tight with little to separate them and it will take one or two opportunities being taken to make all of the difference.
I am favouring Bautista Agut as I think the courts are playing a little slower, while he has had the better hard court results this season. The Gilles Muller win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has to be respected, but Bautista Agut is a little more solid than the Frenchman and I believe he can come through with a repeat of his win in Sofia earlier this year and move through 76, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a positive return to the Tour for Rafael Nadal who has made it through to the Doubles Semi Final in Rio and now looking to do the same in the Singles. There is no doubting that Nadal is playing a lot of tennis on his comeback from a wrist issue and he will have three more matches on Wednesday with one of those coming against the defensively strong Gilles Simon.
There will be some soreness that Nadal is feeling, but he has looked strong around the court in his first two wins in the Singles tournament as well as his performances in the Doubles. The serve has been working well for the most part, while I think the speed of the court is suiting the former World Number 1 who might be the favourite to reach the Final from the top half of the draw now Novak Djokovic is out.
Nadal won't be paying any attention to that though as he will know how difficult Gilles Simon can make things on the court. It should be a court on which Simon can be able to use all of his defensive skills, but the key for the Frenchman is going to be getting a little more out of his serve.
It has been a more difficult path through the draw for Simon but he remains a threat if Nadal is slightly off his game. However it is Nadal who has won seven of their eight previous matches and I think he has returned well enough to expect him to have plenty of break points going his way too. They have played some competitive matches in the past, but I think Nadal can come through this test with a 75, 63 win.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Andrej Martin: John Millman gave Kei Nishikori plenty to think about in the Second Round, but the Japanese top 10 player found a way to battle past the Australian. He is a big favourite to win this Third Round match against Andrej Martin who was the beneficiary of Philipp Kohlschreiber's withdrawal from the tournament.
You can understand why the layers have the prices as they do because Martin spends almost all of his time on the clay courts. In fact he had not played on the hard courts for just under twelve months and his serve is not one that will offer up too many cheap points.
That means trying to rally with Nishikori who should be the better player off the ground, although his own serve is not exactly a big weapon. Failing to earn too many cheap points on serve means Nishikori will likely offer up chances to break which also makes these big spreads tough to negotiate.
However I think we will see a much better performance from Nishikori than he produced in the last Round and that should see him hold a significant edge in this match. He might need to come through a tight first set, but Nishikori can then begin to wear down his opponent with a 75, 62 win.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: The home crowd will certainly inspire Thomaz Bellucci who has moved through to the Third Round, but this has been a difficult season for him. His best results have come at Challenger level and Bellucci is far short of the 29 main Tour wins he had last season, while his match against David Goffin looks a very difficult one.
It has been a comfortable path through the draw for Goffin so far and the Belgian has won the last two matches against Bellucci including earlier this year in Brisbane. While the lefty serve that Bellucci possesses is a big weapon, Goffin is a very effective returner and I think the key to the cover will be how well the Belgian Number 1 serves.
The serve can be a weakness at times as Goffin doesn't have the same pop as the very best players, but he will feel he can out-rally Bellucci in this one. I do think the home crowd will get firmly behind Bellucci, but Goffin has played plenty of Davis Cup and should be aware of the kind of atmosphere he could be facing.
Bellucci has had some very one sided defeats on the hard courts this season and will have to be at his very best to make this one a competitive match. Unfortunately I don't think Bellucci has the confidence to do that against some as consistent as David Goffin and I will look for the latter to move into the Quarter Final behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Olympic Games: 18-10, + 10.80 Units (56 Units Staked, + 19.23% Yield)
That was another big upset in the tournament as Williams was beaten in straight sets by Elina Svitolina and she can now head back to the United States to get ready for Cincinnati and the US Open later this month. Serena Williams has not looked at the races in her three matches in Rio and she has also been beaten in the Women's Doubles with her sister Venus Williams and her Singles loss has opened up the Gold Medal prospects for the remaining eight players in the draw.
Those Quarter Final matches are due to be played on Wednesday along with the Third Round men's matches but the weather doesn't make it too promising for tennis. That might be good news for British hope Johanna Konta who spent a long time on court on Tuesday and will need to be at her physical best if she is going to get past Angelique Kerber in the Quarter Final.
So far it has been a very good tournament for the picks after a strong day on Tuesday moved the totals in a positive direction. I hope I can keep this momentum going and finish this week on a high to take into the Cincinnati Masters and Premier Event which is going to be played next week.
Another dent in the season totals would be very good to keep the positive trend going as we head towards the US Open.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: The rain might be the big equaliser for Johanna Konta in this Quarter Final against Angelique Kerber and the British Number 1 could do with a delay in proceedings. Konta was forced to spend a lot of time on court on Tuesday which has to have had a physical effect on her and someone like Kerber can play enough balls to expose any tiredness that might be in the legs.
While Konta was spending over three hours on court, Kerber came through what looked a testing match very comfortably against Samantha Stosur. With Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza exiting the tournament on Tuesday, Kerber is going to be a big favourite to add the Gold Medal to the Australian Open title she won earlier this year.
The German has been serving well enough, but she has been particularly good when it comes to the big points which has helped her come through the draw without dropping a set. I do think the Konta first serve is arguably better than Kerber's but the latter will make plenty of returns and has the consistency around the court to earn her second win over Konta in the 2016 season.
I just think Kerber won't make the same number of unforced errors in this one and physical tiredness does lead to mental mistakes. The Australian Open Champion can win this one 64, 64 with a half decent serving display and move through to the Semi Final.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: It has been a difficult 2016 season for Petra Kvitova who hasn't had the consistency that she would have liked. However her win over Ekaterina Makarova in the Third Round at the Olympic Games and Kvitova is now favourite to reach only her second Semi Final of the 2016 season.
She will need to be wary as she goes up against Elina Svitolina who has been in good form and earned the stand out win of the tournament when beating Serena Williams on Tuesday. Backing up that win might be tough from a mental perspective as it can be for any upset winner and Svitolina will do well to put that victory to the back of her mind.
Svitolina was helped by a lot of mistakes from Serena Williams who didn't look comfortable in the conditions, but I do think Kvitova has enjoyed the courts here. The issue I am having in backing Kvitova is her inconsistency which makes this a difficult number of games to cover, but I still believe Svitolina is more likely to drop a set with a couple of breaks of serve going against her.
It is difficult to back up a monumental win like the one Svitolina only had on Tuesday and I think the draw has opened up for Kvitova to have her best result of the year. There should be a few breaks of serve but I think Kvitova will eventually wear down Svitolina in a 46, 64, 62 win.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: Steve Johnson has made it comfortably through the draw into this Third Round match and I think he is a deserving favourite to see off Evgeny Donskoy. The Russian had a memorable win on Tuesday as he came from a set and a break down to beat David Ferrer in three sets, but that took a big physical effort and little time to recover makes it difficult for Donskoy.
I have to give Donskoy credit for taking his fine recent form at the Challenger level into the Olympic Games, but this is a significant test for him. Steve Johnson has been serving very effectively and does just enough in return games to find a couple of breaks of serve and he is a strong front runner.
If Donskoy was to slip behind in this one, Steve Johnson is playing well enough to put the foot down on the accelerator and really put the pressure on the Russian to get back into the match. As well as Donskoy has played, he has offered up break point chances and doing that against Johnson will be costly as the American is not giving up so many opportunities on his own serve.
I do think Johnson has the bigger game and that can come out in this Third Round match. Both players will be confident, but Donskoy has a lot of tennis and travel in his legs of late and I will back Johnson to find a way to a 63, 64 kind of win.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: With Novak Djokovic out of the draw, both Gilles Muller and Roberto Bautista Agut have to feel they have every chance of earning a Medal at the Olympic Games. Juan Martin Del Potro is a threat in the top half as is Rafael Nadal, but both Muller and Bautista Agut might feel there are vulnerabilities they can expose if they can get past this Third Round encounter.
It is a match up of styles that should blend together for a very good match.
Muller will look to use a big serve and plenty of aggression from the forehand and at the net, while Bautista Agut might believe his returning ability and defensive skills can force mistakes from the big lefty. Their last two matches have been tight with little to separate them and it will take one or two opportunities being taken to make all of the difference.
I am favouring Bautista Agut as I think the courts are playing a little slower, while he has had the better hard court results this season. The Gilles Muller win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has to be respected, but Bautista Agut is a little more solid than the Frenchman and I believe he can come through with a repeat of his win in Sofia earlier this year and move through 76, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a positive return to the Tour for Rafael Nadal who has made it through to the Doubles Semi Final in Rio and now looking to do the same in the Singles. There is no doubting that Nadal is playing a lot of tennis on his comeback from a wrist issue and he will have three more matches on Wednesday with one of those coming against the defensively strong Gilles Simon.
There will be some soreness that Nadal is feeling, but he has looked strong around the court in his first two wins in the Singles tournament as well as his performances in the Doubles. The serve has been working well for the most part, while I think the speed of the court is suiting the former World Number 1 who might be the favourite to reach the Final from the top half of the draw now Novak Djokovic is out.
Nadal won't be paying any attention to that though as he will know how difficult Gilles Simon can make things on the court. It should be a court on which Simon can be able to use all of his defensive skills, but the key for the Frenchman is going to be getting a little more out of his serve.
It has been a more difficult path through the draw for Simon but he remains a threat if Nadal is slightly off his game. However it is Nadal who has won seven of their eight previous matches and I think he has returned well enough to expect him to have plenty of break points going his way too. They have played some competitive matches in the past, but I think Nadal can come through this test with a 75, 63 win.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Andrej Martin: John Millman gave Kei Nishikori plenty to think about in the Second Round, but the Japanese top 10 player found a way to battle past the Australian. He is a big favourite to win this Third Round match against Andrej Martin who was the beneficiary of Philipp Kohlschreiber's withdrawal from the tournament.
You can understand why the layers have the prices as they do because Martin spends almost all of his time on the clay courts. In fact he had not played on the hard courts for just under twelve months and his serve is not one that will offer up too many cheap points.
That means trying to rally with Nishikori who should be the better player off the ground, although his own serve is not exactly a big weapon. Failing to earn too many cheap points on serve means Nishikori will likely offer up chances to break which also makes these big spreads tough to negotiate.
However I think we will see a much better performance from Nishikori than he produced in the last Round and that should see him hold a significant edge in this match. He might need to come through a tight first set, but Nishikori can then begin to wear down his opponent with a 75, 62 win.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: The home crowd will certainly inspire Thomaz Bellucci who has moved through to the Third Round, but this has been a difficult season for him. His best results have come at Challenger level and Bellucci is far short of the 29 main Tour wins he had last season, while his match against David Goffin looks a very difficult one.
It has been a comfortable path through the draw for Goffin so far and the Belgian has won the last two matches against Bellucci including earlier this year in Brisbane. While the lefty serve that Bellucci possesses is a big weapon, Goffin is a very effective returner and I think the key to the cover will be how well the Belgian Number 1 serves.
The serve can be a weakness at times as Goffin doesn't have the same pop as the very best players, but he will feel he can out-rally Bellucci in this one. I do think the home crowd will get firmly behind Bellucci, but Goffin has played plenty of Davis Cup and should be aware of the kind of atmosphere he could be facing.
Bellucci has had some very one sided defeats on the hard courts this season and will have to be at his very best to make this one a competitive match. Unfortunately I don't think Bellucci has the confidence to do that against some as consistent as David Goffin and I will look for the latter to move into the Quarter Final behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Olympic Games: 18-10, + 10.80 Units (56 Units Staked, + 19.23% Yield)
Tuesday, 9 August 2016
Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 9th)
The Olympic Tennis tournament is moving onto Day 4 and the Women's Quarter Finals will be set at the end of this day filled with plenty of matches.
The Second Round of the Men's draw will also be completed on Tuesday and there is no doubt that the biggest result in the Olympic Games in the Tennis tournament has to be the exit of Novak Djokovic in the First Round against Juan Martin Del Potro. It has really opened up the top half of the draw, although the first look at the draw looks like the bottom half is loaded with the talent that are most likely to win the event.
Rafael Nadal could be the big winner in the section now that Djokovic is out, but I would suggest that players like Kei Nishikori and Gael Monfils would be favourites to at least reach the Final next Sunday if they had been in the top half rather than bottom half of the draw.
I would love to see Del Potro continue his run all the way to the Final, but it looks tough and Andy Murray is now a strong favourite to go and win a second Gold Medal at the Olympic Games. He has a decent run before the Semi Final and I'd back Murray to beat anyone he faces at that stage, although momentum built up at the end of the week is important.
The Women's draw has seen the majority of the big names work their way through to the Third Round and so there should be some quality matches out on the courts on Tuesday. It has also been a good tournament for the picks being made so far from this tournament as I look to make another dent in the season totals and continue the momentum that has been built up from Wimbledon through to last week.
Like Monday, I will add the picks from the Olympic Games in a few hours once all the markets have been released.
Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: The Third Round of the women's Olympic Games Singles event begins on Tuesday and Ekaterina Makarova will know she needs to be a little more solid if she is going to get past fellow lefty Petra Kvitova to move into the Quarter Final.
Both times this week Makarova has had to come from a set behind to win her matches while Kvitova has made light work of Timea Babos and Caroline Wozniacki. The former two time Wimbledon Champion has dropped just nine games in four sets to move into the Third Round and that form makes her a very dangerous opponent for Makarova in this one.
However it is Makarova who has gotten the better of Kvitova in their recent matches having won three of the last four including both played this year. The win on the Miami hard courts might be the most revealing one as those courts tend to play a little slower like they have felt in Rio this summer and Makarova has the ability to give Kvitova all sorts of problems on the court.
Makarova hasn't been in the best form since Wimbledon, but she enjoys this match up and Kvitova has not often managed three wins in a row over the last twelve months. Kvitova has only managed to do that twice since the US Open last year and she will be feeling the pressure against someone who has gotten the better of her in recent matches and I will take the underdog with the games in hand.
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: Both of these players have had to come from a set behind in the First Round at the Olympic Games before securing much more routine wins in the Second Round. Now Daria Kasatkina and Sara Errani play one another for a place in the Quarter Finals of this tournament and I think it could be a long drawn out match.
Even a straight sets match would be a long one as both Errani and Kasatkina are very comfortable in rallies and looking to outlast their opponent. There is a little more power behind the Kastakina game which might see her dictate more points though, while the Errani serve continues to be one of the most vulnerable shots in the women's game.
The title win in Dubai is the reason why Errani's best results have come on the hard courts this season, but she didn't play well on the clay which was a surprise. Also, take away the five wins she had in Dubai and the Italian would be just 7-7 on the hard courts this season and I can see Kasatkina being too good for her if she makes use of the return games.
The Kasatkina serve can be an issue at times, but she showed she can deal with similar players like Errani in her run to the Canadian Premier Event Quarter Final. I do have to respect Errani for looking strong so far this week, but I think Kasatkina will be a little too good for her when it is all said and done and move through with a 63, 36, 63 win.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This might look a lot of games on paper for Angelique Kerber to cover, but I think the German is rounding into some strong form and can beat Samantha Stosur for a place in the Quarter Final. Kerber's experiences in the Grand Slams this season would have given her plenty of confidence to take into the tournament and she is playing the big points very well so far in Rio.
It was playing the big points effectively that helped Kerber beat Eugenie Bouchard on Monday, especially in the second set when she managed to win four of five games that had been at 30-30 or Deuce. Those moments build further confidence in a player who reached the Semi Final in Montreal ten days ago and Kerber is also pretty comfortable with the match up with Sam Stosur.
As big as the Australian's first serve can be, Kerber is certainly an effective returner and her movement around the court can eventually see Stosur make errors. More importantly is the match up of the Kerber forehand which naturally goes into the weaker Stosur backhand wing and that can earn the short ball and give Kerber the advantage.
Kerber has won three of the last four matches between the players and all of those wins have come on the hard courts. The German would have covered this number in each of those wins too and I think she will get the better of Stosur who has been inconsistent all season and who might not be able to rely on her first serve getting her out of jail in this one.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Elina Svitolina: It always looked like being a tough Second Round match for Serena Williams when she faced off against Alize Cornet if only from a mental perspective. The American spent the first set battling with her emotions as well as her opponent, but Serena Williams rolled through the second set and should be a lot freer with her actions on Tuesday.
At least she will have had the time to get ready to face Elina Svitolina who has proven to be a tough competitor but one who is perhaps lacking the consistency to challenge the very best players on the Tour. The Ukrainian has come through two matches where she has needed three sets to see off opponents and now the level of her opponent is raised significantly from what Svitolina has dealt with so far.
The problem I see for Svitolina is that her serve is not the weapon that it should be and she is likely to throw in a really poor set where she struggles to hold. That is not good news when facing someone as good as Serena Williams and I can see the American proving too good for her like she was when they faced off at the French Open in May.
The two previous hard court matches between the players have been competitive, but this match very much depends on the Serena Williams racquet. After coming through the Second Round as effectively as she did, I think Williams will get her nose in front in this one and then run away for a 63, 62 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: There will have been a few players that would have hoped they were in the top half of the Olympic draw after seeing Novak Djokovic knocked out in the First Round. Unfortunately for these two players that is not the case, but David Ferrer and Evgeny Donskoy won't be looking too far ahead as they meet in the Second Round.
This is the second time in the space of a few months that Ferrer and Donskoy will play one another and the latter will be hoping for much better than winning three games in three sets at the French Open. Donskoy has to feel the hard courts gives him better chances against Ferrer, especially as the latter is not quite as quick around the court as he used to be, but the conditions in Rio might be suiting the Spaniard more.
It has looked pretty difficult to hit through the court (unless your name is Juan Martin Del Potro) and that should mean Ferrer is able to make enough balls back to extract mistakes from Donskoy. While the Russian has had his strongest results on the hard courts, those have come at Challenger and Qualifier level and he has come up short against the better players on the main Tour.
Ferrer has definitely slipped and is now outside of the top 10 in the World Rankings, but he should still have too much for Donskoy. The Ferrer serve is a weakness but I can see him earning three or four breaks of serve which should produce a 64, 63 win for the veteran.
Steve Johnson - 4.5 games v Gastao Elias: It has been a promising few months for Gastao Elias who has moved up to Number 6o in the World Rankings but the positive results have been built on the clay courts. In fact this is just his fourth hard court match of the season and Elias' win over Thanasi Kokkinakis has to have an asterisk attached considering Kokkinakis was coming off a big injury.
This should be a much bigger test for Elias as he faces Steve Johnson who has been in fine form since June and should be capable of breaking into the top 20 of the World Rankings in the coming weeks. The hard courts have been his favoured surface in his career, which is no surprise for an American player, although Johnson has been a little inconsistent on the surface in 2016.
The return game can sometimes be a little weakness for Johnson but his serve is strong and he should have success against the Elias second serve in this match. The longer the rally goes, the more it should favour Elias, but Johnson can play quick strike tennis when his forehand is in form and I think he will be too good on the day.
I do think Johnson will have the majority of the break point chances in this one and that can lead to a 64, 63 win for the American and a place in tomorrow's Third Round.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The one concern I have in backing Rafael Nadal in this Second Round match is how the wrist is feeling after being off the Tour since May. He has been playing Doubles as well this week so I am guessing Nadal feels strong, while he has to be motivated from the chance of winning a second Gold Medal now that Novak Djokovic is out of the draw.
Nadal looked good in the First Round win over Federico Delbonis, but Andreas Seppi should pose more problems in this one. On the other hand, the Italian is a little fortunate to have made it through to the Second Round having just about edged out Illya Marchenko who was arguably the better player in their First Round match.
It is Nadal who has won six of their previous seven matches, but I think it is right to also point out they are 1-1 on the hard courts and both matches have been highly competitive. The last of those did come back in 2009, but it shows that Seppi won't be overawed by the occasion although I am not convinced he is at full health for this match.
Seppi has also had a difficult time finding his consistency on the hard courts in 2016 and Nadal has played well on the surface with a Final in Doha and Semi Final in Indian Wells under his belt. The Nadal serve can be a problem, but he should have a fair few chances to break the Seppi serve too and I think the Spaniard can move through to the Third Round with a 75, 63 win.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Dudi Sela: This is a lot of games being asked of David Goffin to cover, but I think the match up with Dudi Sela will give him every chance of doing that. Both players have a similar style on the court, but Goffin is more effective consistently and that can prove to be a major difference between the two players in this Second Round match.
Neither player can really point to a terrific serve to get them out of a jam, but they will look to dictate the points behind the first serve. Both will rally from the back of the court and the key will be which of either Goffin or Sela is able to keep the unforced errors in check for long enough to win the match.
I do believe Goffin's first serve is slightly more effective than Sela's though and I think the Belgian is also the stronger returner of the two players. Putting those together should mean it is Goffin who has the majority of break point chances in this one and converting his chances should mean being firmly in control of the match.
Sela can be competitive in matches, but this looks a bad match up for him on paper and I think he might be worn down in a 64, 62 win for David Goffin.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 12-8, + 4.78 Units (40 Units Staked, + 11.95% Yield)
The Second Round of the Men's draw will also be completed on Tuesday and there is no doubt that the biggest result in the Olympic Games in the Tennis tournament has to be the exit of Novak Djokovic in the First Round against Juan Martin Del Potro. It has really opened up the top half of the draw, although the first look at the draw looks like the bottom half is loaded with the talent that are most likely to win the event.
Rafael Nadal could be the big winner in the section now that Djokovic is out, but I would suggest that players like Kei Nishikori and Gael Monfils would be favourites to at least reach the Final next Sunday if they had been in the top half rather than bottom half of the draw.
I would love to see Del Potro continue his run all the way to the Final, but it looks tough and Andy Murray is now a strong favourite to go and win a second Gold Medal at the Olympic Games. He has a decent run before the Semi Final and I'd back Murray to beat anyone he faces at that stage, although momentum built up at the end of the week is important.
The Women's draw has seen the majority of the big names work their way through to the Third Round and so there should be some quality matches out on the courts on Tuesday. It has also been a good tournament for the picks being made so far from this tournament as I look to make another dent in the season totals and continue the momentum that has been built up from Wimbledon through to last week.
Like Monday, I will add the picks from the Olympic Games in a few hours once all the markets have been released.
Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: The Third Round of the women's Olympic Games Singles event begins on Tuesday and Ekaterina Makarova will know she needs to be a little more solid if she is going to get past fellow lefty Petra Kvitova to move into the Quarter Final.
Both times this week Makarova has had to come from a set behind to win her matches while Kvitova has made light work of Timea Babos and Caroline Wozniacki. The former two time Wimbledon Champion has dropped just nine games in four sets to move into the Third Round and that form makes her a very dangerous opponent for Makarova in this one.
However it is Makarova who has gotten the better of Kvitova in their recent matches having won three of the last four including both played this year. The win on the Miami hard courts might be the most revealing one as those courts tend to play a little slower like they have felt in Rio this summer and Makarova has the ability to give Kvitova all sorts of problems on the court.
Makarova hasn't been in the best form since Wimbledon, but she enjoys this match up and Kvitova has not often managed three wins in a row over the last twelve months. Kvitova has only managed to do that twice since the US Open last year and she will be feeling the pressure against someone who has gotten the better of her in recent matches and I will take the underdog with the games in hand.
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: Both of these players have had to come from a set behind in the First Round at the Olympic Games before securing much more routine wins in the Second Round. Now Daria Kasatkina and Sara Errani play one another for a place in the Quarter Finals of this tournament and I think it could be a long drawn out match.
Even a straight sets match would be a long one as both Errani and Kasatkina are very comfortable in rallies and looking to outlast their opponent. There is a little more power behind the Kastakina game which might see her dictate more points though, while the Errani serve continues to be one of the most vulnerable shots in the women's game.
The title win in Dubai is the reason why Errani's best results have come on the hard courts this season, but she didn't play well on the clay which was a surprise. Also, take away the five wins she had in Dubai and the Italian would be just 7-7 on the hard courts this season and I can see Kasatkina being too good for her if she makes use of the return games.
The Kasatkina serve can be an issue at times, but she showed she can deal with similar players like Errani in her run to the Canadian Premier Event Quarter Final. I do have to respect Errani for looking strong so far this week, but I think Kasatkina will be a little too good for her when it is all said and done and move through with a 63, 36, 63 win.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This might look a lot of games on paper for Angelique Kerber to cover, but I think the German is rounding into some strong form and can beat Samantha Stosur for a place in the Quarter Final. Kerber's experiences in the Grand Slams this season would have given her plenty of confidence to take into the tournament and she is playing the big points very well so far in Rio.
It was playing the big points effectively that helped Kerber beat Eugenie Bouchard on Monday, especially in the second set when she managed to win four of five games that had been at 30-30 or Deuce. Those moments build further confidence in a player who reached the Semi Final in Montreal ten days ago and Kerber is also pretty comfortable with the match up with Sam Stosur.
As big as the Australian's first serve can be, Kerber is certainly an effective returner and her movement around the court can eventually see Stosur make errors. More importantly is the match up of the Kerber forehand which naturally goes into the weaker Stosur backhand wing and that can earn the short ball and give Kerber the advantage.
Kerber has won three of the last four matches between the players and all of those wins have come on the hard courts. The German would have covered this number in each of those wins too and I think she will get the better of Stosur who has been inconsistent all season and who might not be able to rely on her first serve getting her out of jail in this one.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Elina Svitolina: It always looked like being a tough Second Round match for Serena Williams when she faced off against Alize Cornet if only from a mental perspective. The American spent the first set battling with her emotions as well as her opponent, but Serena Williams rolled through the second set and should be a lot freer with her actions on Tuesday.
At least she will have had the time to get ready to face Elina Svitolina who has proven to be a tough competitor but one who is perhaps lacking the consistency to challenge the very best players on the Tour. The Ukrainian has come through two matches where she has needed three sets to see off opponents and now the level of her opponent is raised significantly from what Svitolina has dealt with so far.
The problem I see for Svitolina is that her serve is not the weapon that it should be and she is likely to throw in a really poor set where she struggles to hold. That is not good news when facing someone as good as Serena Williams and I can see the American proving too good for her like she was when they faced off at the French Open in May.
The two previous hard court matches between the players have been competitive, but this match very much depends on the Serena Williams racquet. After coming through the Second Round as effectively as she did, I think Williams will get her nose in front in this one and then run away for a 63, 62 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: There will have been a few players that would have hoped they were in the top half of the Olympic draw after seeing Novak Djokovic knocked out in the First Round. Unfortunately for these two players that is not the case, but David Ferrer and Evgeny Donskoy won't be looking too far ahead as they meet in the Second Round.
This is the second time in the space of a few months that Ferrer and Donskoy will play one another and the latter will be hoping for much better than winning three games in three sets at the French Open. Donskoy has to feel the hard courts gives him better chances against Ferrer, especially as the latter is not quite as quick around the court as he used to be, but the conditions in Rio might be suiting the Spaniard more.
It has looked pretty difficult to hit through the court (unless your name is Juan Martin Del Potro) and that should mean Ferrer is able to make enough balls back to extract mistakes from Donskoy. While the Russian has had his strongest results on the hard courts, those have come at Challenger and Qualifier level and he has come up short against the better players on the main Tour.
Ferrer has definitely slipped and is now outside of the top 10 in the World Rankings, but he should still have too much for Donskoy. The Ferrer serve is a weakness but I can see him earning three or four breaks of serve which should produce a 64, 63 win for the veteran.
Steve Johnson - 4.5 games v Gastao Elias: It has been a promising few months for Gastao Elias who has moved up to Number 6o in the World Rankings but the positive results have been built on the clay courts. In fact this is just his fourth hard court match of the season and Elias' win over Thanasi Kokkinakis has to have an asterisk attached considering Kokkinakis was coming off a big injury.
This should be a much bigger test for Elias as he faces Steve Johnson who has been in fine form since June and should be capable of breaking into the top 20 of the World Rankings in the coming weeks. The hard courts have been his favoured surface in his career, which is no surprise for an American player, although Johnson has been a little inconsistent on the surface in 2016.
The return game can sometimes be a little weakness for Johnson but his serve is strong and he should have success against the Elias second serve in this match. The longer the rally goes, the more it should favour Elias, but Johnson can play quick strike tennis when his forehand is in form and I think he will be too good on the day.
I do think Johnson will have the majority of the break point chances in this one and that can lead to a 64, 63 win for the American and a place in tomorrow's Third Round.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The one concern I have in backing Rafael Nadal in this Second Round match is how the wrist is feeling after being off the Tour since May. He has been playing Doubles as well this week so I am guessing Nadal feels strong, while he has to be motivated from the chance of winning a second Gold Medal now that Novak Djokovic is out of the draw.
Nadal looked good in the First Round win over Federico Delbonis, but Andreas Seppi should pose more problems in this one. On the other hand, the Italian is a little fortunate to have made it through to the Second Round having just about edged out Illya Marchenko who was arguably the better player in their First Round match.
It is Nadal who has won six of their previous seven matches, but I think it is right to also point out they are 1-1 on the hard courts and both matches have been highly competitive. The last of those did come back in 2009, but it shows that Seppi won't be overawed by the occasion although I am not convinced he is at full health for this match.
Seppi has also had a difficult time finding his consistency on the hard courts in 2016 and Nadal has played well on the surface with a Final in Doha and Semi Final in Indian Wells under his belt. The Nadal serve can be a problem, but he should have a fair few chances to break the Seppi serve too and I think the Spaniard can move through to the Third Round with a 75, 63 win.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Dudi Sela: This is a lot of games being asked of David Goffin to cover, but I think the match up with Dudi Sela will give him every chance of doing that. Both players have a similar style on the court, but Goffin is more effective consistently and that can prove to be a major difference between the two players in this Second Round match.
Neither player can really point to a terrific serve to get them out of a jam, but they will look to dictate the points behind the first serve. Both will rally from the back of the court and the key will be which of either Goffin or Sela is able to keep the unforced errors in check for long enough to win the match.
I do believe Goffin's first serve is slightly more effective than Sela's though and I think the Belgian is also the stronger returner of the two players. Putting those together should mean it is Goffin who has the majority of break point chances in this one and converting his chances should mean being firmly in control of the match.
Sela can be competitive in matches, but this looks a bad match up for him on paper and I think he might be worn down in a 64, 62 win for David Goffin.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 12-8, + 4.78 Units (40 Units Staked, + 11.95% Yield)
Monday, 8 August 2016
Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 8th)
On normal weeks I would be suggesting that Monday is the worst day of the week for tennis picks with plenty of tournaments deciding to play one or two First Round matches on the day.
That is not the case on this Monday as the Olympic Games tennis tournament has been played over the weekend and the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Monday as the tournament moves on.
It has been a solid couple of days which have backed up another strong week on the Tour as I continue making a dent in the losing record for 2016 and I am looking for another strong week on the Tour. This week I will be putting in records for the Olympic Games picks as well as any I make from Los Cabos, the sole ATP event being played this week, and I am very much hoping the momentum of the last few weeks can keep the picks moving in the positive direction.
Picks from all of those tournaments will be added here on Monday once the full schedule for the day has been released by the organisers in Rio and Los Cabos.
Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: There are some really big Second Round matches taking place at the Olympic Games and this might be the biggest of all in the women's draw. It does have to be said that Eugenie Bouchard is not playing at the level of 2014 when she had considerable success at the Grand Slam level, but this has been a much better year than 2015 already.
The hard courts have been her best courts this season and Bouchard might feel she has every chance of earning the upset over Angelique Kerber who has not been at her best over the last few weeks.
It is Bouchard who has won their last three matches including in Rome earlier this season, while Kerber has been battling through an injury which forced her out of Bastad. The German did reach the Semi Final of the Canadian Premier Event in Montreal a couple of weeks ago, and she has had considerable success on the hard courts including winning the Australian Open back in January.
However I am not sure Kerber is totally at full tilt for the Olympic Games and she did have a tougher than expected win in the First Round. Bouchard was solid enough in the First Round to think she can make plenty of use out of this number of games and I will back her to stay within the number at the end of the match.
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Saisai Zheng: I am convinced that Daria Kasatkina is destined for the very top of the women's game in the coming years and the 19 year old has been playing well enough to keep her run going at the Olympic Games. She did come close to an exit in the First Round in a huge upset, but battling through that one should give Kasatkina a little momentum to take further into the tournament.
She looks to be the more consistent player in this one when she takes on Saisai Zheng who is coming off a big upset win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the First Round. The latter blamed a lack of preparation time for her defeat, but Kastakina should not be caught cold as Radwanska was.
Both players have put in a solid result over the last few weeks on the hard courts with Zheng reaching the Quarter Final in Stanford and Kasatkina doing the same at the Premier Event in Montreal. That should mean both are confident for this match, but Zheng has not shown the same consistency on this surface as Kasatkina has through the year.
It was a one sided win for Kasatkina when these players met in Charleston earlier in the season, but I expect this one will be closer. However I do like the youngster to come through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Third Round.
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: It took a battling display from Samantha Stosur to come from behind and Jelena Ostapenko in the First Round. She dropped the first set 61, but Stosur bounced back to dominate the final two sets and the Australian moves through to face Misaki Doi in the Second Round.
This has been a strong match up for Stosur in the past with three wins in a row against Doi, although she did need three sets to beat her at the French Open in May.
A key for Stosur has been the first serve and that is a weapon against Doi who has struggled to deal with that shot in the past. That only increases the pressure on Doi to try and stay with Stosur on the scoreboard but her own serve is not as effective and it means the Australian is able to take control of the match.
It might need three sets to separate them again, but I can see Stosur winning at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve and that can see her cover this number. Stosur missed the cover by a single game yesterday which was disappointing for me, but I will back her again and look for her to come through 64, 46, 62.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Heather Watson: It has to be said that Heather Watson made life difficult for herself in the First Round win over Shuai Peng but getting through was the most important thing. Watson had been 2-8 in her last ten matches on the Tour prior to the win over Peng and this is a significant increase in terms of quality she is facing in the Second Round.
Elina Svitolina came from a set behind to beat Andrea Petkovic in the First Round and she did reach the Third Round at the Canadian Premier Event in Montreal a couple of weeks ago. The Ukrainian should have beaten Angelique Kerber in that Third Round having served for the match, and she has won a title on the hard courts in 2016.
The serve is still not as consistent as Svitolina would like, but her return game is going to put some pressure on Watson in this one. Recent matches would have knocked some of the confidence out of Watson even though she did also win a title on the hard courts earlier this year, but she will be under pressure to play the big points effectively having lost so many recent matches.
I do think Watson will have her moments in this one, but I think Svitolina is in the better form and that can be the difference maker. Both players will have their break point chances and it will be a fun match to watch, one that I believe Svitolina will eventually win and cover this number of games.
Alize Cornet + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: There won't be too many active players on the WTA Tour that can say they have won three matches in a row against Serena Williams. It has been a couple of years since Alize Cornet has played Serena Williams, and the last of those matches might have ended in a retirement, but the Frenchwoman has won the last two completed matches against the World Number 1 with both of those coming in 2014.
Cornet was a huge underdog in both of those wins and she is a big underdog in this Second Round match at the Olympic Games, but I can't help think she is being given too many games. The form has not been that impressive over the last few weeks on the hard courts, but Cornet is a player that can make Serena Williams work for a win and I do think she can win enough games to stay within this number.
Opposing Serena Williams is never easy because she can make life very easy for herself when at her very best. You have to think she will be really focused on this match having lost the last three matches to Cornet in upset defeats and knowing the kind of challenge that Cornet will bring to the court.
If Williams is serving well she is capable of blowing away anyone on the court, but the World Number 1 has not covered this number in any of her last six hard court matches. Serena Williams will likely be a fairly comfortable winner, but I will look for Cornet to win at least six games over the course of two sets to stick within the number.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: Being Ranked outside of the top 100 and not playing any hard court matches of note over the last couple of seasons had Andrej Martin as an underdog in his First Round match at the Olympic Games. However he comfortably dismissed Denis Kudla, who has not been in great form, and now faces a bigger challenge when running into Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Second Round.
It took a big effort from Kohlschreiber to turn around his First Round match against Guido Pella who took the first set before the German took control. I have said a few times this season that I think Kohlschreiber might have lost a little speed around the court and so makes more mistakes than before, but I still believe he should have the winning of this match.
Kohlschreiber does look set to earn more Tour wins than in 2015, and he is back inside the top 3o of the World Rankings which might go against my feeling about him losing a little bit of his game. However he has struggled on the hard courts and is now coming back into that part of the season, while Kohlschreiber is only 5-4 on the hard courts in 2016 after his First Round win.
This is the kind of match that Kohlschreiber should still be winning as long as he is looking after his serve. He should have chances against the Martin serve through the match and I think he will eventually find the breaks of serve to record a 63, 64 win.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The home crowd will be behind Rogerio Dutra Silva in this Second Round match, but it is going to be difficult for the Brazilian to get the better of an in-form Gael Monfils. The exit of Novak Djokovic from the draw will have many players believing they can win the Gold Medal in Rio de Janeiro and Washington Champion Monfils has to believe he is one of those.
The Frenchman backed up the Washington win by reaching the Semi Final at the Canadian Masters and Monfils crushed Vasek Pospisil in the First Round.
Rogerio Dutra Silva took advantage of a kind draw in the First Round, but he is going to be given a real test by Gael Monfils. This is a player that spends almost all of his time exclusively on the clay courts and Dutra Silva has been beaten in three of his four hard court matches played in 2016.
Those three defeats have all come by the same margin of seven games and his sole win was as a very big favourite. With the way Monfils has been playing over the last three weeks, Dutra Silva will do very well to stay with him and I think the Frenchman will have enough break point chances to eventually come to a 63, 62 win which would match the scores in all of Dutra Silva's defeats on the hard courts in 2016.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v John Millman: It isn't often on the men's Tour that you see a double bagel handed out, but John Millman did that to Ricardas Berankis in the First Round. As impressive as that scoreline looks, Millman is going to be given a whole different test by Kei Nishikori who will feel his recent form gives him every chance of winning a Medal at the Olympic Games.
Reaching the Final of the Canadian Masters in Toronto would have given Nishikori the confidence to take into the Rio Games and this is also a former US Open Finalist. I still wonder if Nishikori will be able to take the next step in his career by winning major tournaments with the poor serve he has, but the return game will always make the Japanese player a danger.
This match up should not be one that taxes Nishikori as he should be able to get involved in a number of rallies against Millman. From the back of the court, Nishikori will feel he has the edge in the match and I think there will be a number of break points fashioned against the average Millman serve.
Millman has lost eight times on the hard courts in 2016 and he would have failed to get within this number on five occasions. As long as Nishikori can protect the serve effectively, he should be too strong for Millman and come through with a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet + 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 8-5, + 4.02 Units (26 Units Staked, + 15.46% Yield)
That is not the case on this Monday as the Olympic Games tennis tournament has been played over the weekend and the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Monday as the tournament moves on.
It has been a solid couple of days which have backed up another strong week on the Tour as I continue making a dent in the losing record for 2016 and I am looking for another strong week on the Tour. This week I will be putting in records for the Olympic Games picks as well as any I make from Los Cabos, the sole ATP event being played this week, and I am very much hoping the momentum of the last few weeks can keep the picks moving in the positive direction.
Picks from all of those tournaments will be added here on Monday once the full schedule for the day has been released by the organisers in Rio and Los Cabos.
Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: There are some really big Second Round matches taking place at the Olympic Games and this might be the biggest of all in the women's draw. It does have to be said that Eugenie Bouchard is not playing at the level of 2014 when she had considerable success at the Grand Slam level, but this has been a much better year than 2015 already.
The hard courts have been her best courts this season and Bouchard might feel she has every chance of earning the upset over Angelique Kerber who has not been at her best over the last few weeks.
It is Bouchard who has won their last three matches including in Rome earlier this season, while Kerber has been battling through an injury which forced her out of Bastad. The German did reach the Semi Final of the Canadian Premier Event in Montreal a couple of weeks ago, and she has had considerable success on the hard courts including winning the Australian Open back in January.
However I am not sure Kerber is totally at full tilt for the Olympic Games and she did have a tougher than expected win in the First Round. Bouchard was solid enough in the First Round to think she can make plenty of use out of this number of games and I will back her to stay within the number at the end of the match.
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Saisai Zheng: I am convinced that Daria Kasatkina is destined for the very top of the women's game in the coming years and the 19 year old has been playing well enough to keep her run going at the Olympic Games. She did come close to an exit in the First Round in a huge upset, but battling through that one should give Kasatkina a little momentum to take further into the tournament.
She looks to be the more consistent player in this one when she takes on Saisai Zheng who is coming off a big upset win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the First Round. The latter blamed a lack of preparation time for her defeat, but Kastakina should not be caught cold as Radwanska was.
Both players have put in a solid result over the last few weeks on the hard courts with Zheng reaching the Quarter Final in Stanford and Kasatkina doing the same at the Premier Event in Montreal. That should mean both are confident for this match, but Zheng has not shown the same consistency on this surface as Kasatkina has through the year.
It was a one sided win for Kasatkina when these players met in Charleston earlier in the season, but I expect this one will be closer. However I do like the youngster to come through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Third Round.
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: It took a battling display from Samantha Stosur to come from behind and Jelena Ostapenko in the First Round. She dropped the first set 61, but Stosur bounced back to dominate the final two sets and the Australian moves through to face Misaki Doi in the Second Round.
This has been a strong match up for Stosur in the past with three wins in a row against Doi, although she did need three sets to beat her at the French Open in May.
A key for Stosur has been the first serve and that is a weapon against Doi who has struggled to deal with that shot in the past. That only increases the pressure on Doi to try and stay with Stosur on the scoreboard but her own serve is not as effective and it means the Australian is able to take control of the match.
It might need three sets to separate them again, but I can see Stosur winning at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve and that can see her cover this number. Stosur missed the cover by a single game yesterday which was disappointing for me, but I will back her again and look for her to come through 64, 46, 62.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Heather Watson: It has to be said that Heather Watson made life difficult for herself in the First Round win over Shuai Peng but getting through was the most important thing. Watson had been 2-8 in her last ten matches on the Tour prior to the win over Peng and this is a significant increase in terms of quality she is facing in the Second Round.
Elina Svitolina came from a set behind to beat Andrea Petkovic in the First Round and she did reach the Third Round at the Canadian Premier Event in Montreal a couple of weeks ago. The Ukrainian should have beaten Angelique Kerber in that Third Round having served for the match, and she has won a title on the hard courts in 2016.
The serve is still not as consistent as Svitolina would like, but her return game is going to put some pressure on Watson in this one. Recent matches would have knocked some of the confidence out of Watson even though she did also win a title on the hard courts earlier this year, but she will be under pressure to play the big points effectively having lost so many recent matches.
I do think Watson will have her moments in this one, but I think Svitolina is in the better form and that can be the difference maker. Both players will have their break point chances and it will be a fun match to watch, one that I believe Svitolina will eventually win and cover this number of games.
Alize Cornet + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: There won't be too many active players on the WTA Tour that can say they have won three matches in a row against Serena Williams. It has been a couple of years since Alize Cornet has played Serena Williams, and the last of those matches might have ended in a retirement, but the Frenchwoman has won the last two completed matches against the World Number 1 with both of those coming in 2014.
Cornet was a huge underdog in both of those wins and she is a big underdog in this Second Round match at the Olympic Games, but I can't help think she is being given too many games. The form has not been that impressive over the last few weeks on the hard courts, but Cornet is a player that can make Serena Williams work for a win and I do think she can win enough games to stay within this number.
Opposing Serena Williams is never easy because she can make life very easy for herself when at her very best. You have to think she will be really focused on this match having lost the last three matches to Cornet in upset defeats and knowing the kind of challenge that Cornet will bring to the court.
If Williams is serving well she is capable of blowing away anyone on the court, but the World Number 1 has not covered this number in any of her last six hard court matches. Serena Williams will likely be a fairly comfortable winner, but I will look for Cornet to win at least six games over the course of two sets to stick within the number.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: Being Ranked outside of the top 100 and not playing any hard court matches of note over the last couple of seasons had Andrej Martin as an underdog in his First Round match at the Olympic Games. However he comfortably dismissed Denis Kudla, who has not been in great form, and now faces a bigger challenge when running into Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Second Round.
It took a big effort from Kohlschreiber to turn around his First Round match against Guido Pella who took the first set before the German took control. I have said a few times this season that I think Kohlschreiber might have lost a little speed around the court and so makes more mistakes than before, but I still believe he should have the winning of this match.
Kohlschreiber does look set to earn more Tour wins than in 2015, and he is back inside the top 3o of the World Rankings which might go against my feeling about him losing a little bit of his game. However he has struggled on the hard courts and is now coming back into that part of the season, while Kohlschreiber is only 5-4 on the hard courts in 2016 after his First Round win.
This is the kind of match that Kohlschreiber should still be winning as long as he is looking after his serve. He should have chances against the Martin serve through the match and I think he will eventually find the breaks of serve to record a 63, 64 win.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The home crowd will be behind Rogerio Dutra Silva in this Second Round match, but it is going to be difficult for the Brazilian to get the better of an in-form Gael Monfils. The exit of Novak Djokovic from the draw will have many players believing they can win the Gold Medal in Rio de Janeiro and Washington Champion Monfils has to believe he is one of those.
The Frenchman backed up the Washington win by reaching the Semi Final at the Canadian Masters and Monfils crushed Vasek Pospisil in the First Round.
Rogerio Dutra Silva took advantage of a kind draw in the First Round, but he is going to be given a real test by Gael Monfils. This is a player that spends almost all of his time exclusively on the clay courts and Dutra Silva has been beaten in three of his four hard court matches played in 2016.
Those three defeats have all come by the same margin of seven games and his sole win was as a very big favourite. With the way Monfils has been playing over the last three weeks, Dutra Silva will do very well to stay with him and I think the Frenchman will have enough break point chances to eventually come to a 63, 62 win which would match the scores in all of Dutra Silva's defeats on the hard courts in 2016.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v John Millman: It isn't often on the men's Tour that you see a double bagel handed out, but John Millman did that to Ricardas Berankis in the First Round. As impressive as that scoreline looks, Millman is going to be given a whole different test by Kei Nishikori who will feel his recent form gives him every chance of winning a Medal at the Olympic Games.
Reaching the Final of the Canadian Masters in Toronto would have given Nishikori the confidence to take into the Rio Games and this is also a former US Open Finalist. I still wonder if Nishikori will be able to take the next step in his career by winning major tournaments with the poor serve he has, but the return game will always make the Japanese player a danger.
This match up should not be one that taxes Nishikori as he should be able to get involved in a number of rallies against Millman. From the back of the court, Nishikori will feel he has the edge in the match and I think there will be a number of break points fashioned against the average Millman serve.
Millman has lost eight times on the hard courts in 2016 and he would have failed to get within this number on five occasions. As long as Nishikori can protect the serve effectively, he should be too strong for Millman and come through with a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet + 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 8-5, + 4.02 Units (26 Units Staked, + 15.46% Yield)
Season 2016: - 16.16 Units (1315 Units Staked, - 1.23% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 7 August 2016
Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 7th)
The Olympic Games tennis tournament got underway on Saturday and the rest of the First Round matches will be completed on Sunday.
It was a very strong start to the tournament for my picks as they went 5-1 on Saturday and I am looking to back that up with another strong showing on Sunday to get some momentum behind the tennis picks this week.
I am going to be doing something a little different with the way I show the results this week- I will have totals from the Olympic Games matches and a separate one from the picks from the ATP tournaments in Atlanta and Los Cabos. At the end of the week the results will all be pooled together in the season totals anyway, but I think it is the best way to view the results this week.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: I don't think it is wrong to suggest that Roberto Bautista Agut is the most underrated player in the top 20 of the World Rankings. He hasn't played a lot of tennis in preparation for the Olympic Games, but Bautista Agut is comfortable on almost any surface and I do think he will get the better of Andrey Kuznetsov in this First Round match.
It could have been a much easier draw for the Spaniard than facing Kuznetsov who has had some solid results on the hard courts in 2016. Take away the surprising loss to Ryan Harrison last week in Toronto and you would notice Kuznetsov has reached the Third Round in Indian Wells and Fourth Round in Miami this season.
Both of those runs were further than where Bautista Agut reached the same tournaments, but I think the Spaniard's game will match up well with Kuznetsov. Bautista Agut will make sure he gets plenty of balls back in play, while he protects his serve better than you might expect, especially when up against players Ranked much lower than he is.
I think a few games will be tight and Bautista Agut has to play the big points effectively to make sure he isn't dragged into a potential upset alert. I think Bautista Agut can do that and I like his chances of finding a 64, 64 win.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: It has been a season of injury for Jerzy Janowicz who made his return to the Tour last week for the first time since the Australian Open. He was beaten by Luca Vanni in the first match he played, but the Italian went on to win that Challenger event and we don't really know how Janowicz is feeling heading into the Olympics.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller in this one and the lack of tennis might mean more mistakes when it comes to shot selection which is a feature of Janowicz performances. The serve can be a big weapon, but Janowicz doesn't always back that up as he should and too many drop shots or big errors can give Muller his chances to break the serve.
Muller has not been as effective on the hard courts as someone with his serve should perhaps be, but he hasn't always had the kindest draw. The lefty did push Novak Djokovic in Toronto last week and that is going to give him confidence, while Muller is much more match ready than Janowicz at this point of their careers.
I think that is going to be important and see Muller earn a break more in each of the first two sets in this one and get passed Janowicz with a 64, 64 win.
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: On first glance there will be plenty of people out there that feel this is too many games for Fabio Fognini to cover. The Italian isn't blessed with the biggest serve while his erratic play means he could be in a difficult position to cover very quickly within a match.
However I do think Fognini can get the better of Victor Estrella Burgos as the veteran usually reserves his best form for the clay courts. In fact a deeper look will show that take out the success that Estrella Burgos had in Quito, where he won the title, and he would have a poor 7-14 record on the main Tour this season.
It has been really bad for Estrella Burgos on the hard courts where is 1-6 this season and he has lost his last five hard court matches. Of those losses, Estrella Burgos would have failed to get within this number four times and losses to the likes of Jordan Thompson, Sam Groth and Taylor Fritz won't inspire a lot of confidence in him.
Like I've said, you don't know what you will get from Fognini on any day. However I think the Italian does play very strong tennis when representing his nation and Fognini can find a way to win this one 64, 63.
Robin Haase v Joao Sousa: Last year was a career year for Joao Sousa, but this is a player who is now slipping down the World Ranking. In 2015 Sousa won 34 matches on the Tour, but he has only won 15 this season and brings in a losing record into what is a difficult time of the season for him.
Maybe the Olympic Games can change things, but the hard courts have not been the favoured surface for Sousa, although he can at least point to the fact that Robin Haase is not at his best on the surface either.
This is the first hard court match Haase has played since the Indian Wells tournament back in March, but the Dutchman has played well since Wimbledon. Winning a Challenger event and reaching the Semi Final of a main Tour event is better form than what Sousa has produced in 2016 and Haase has produced it at the right time to build momentum into this tournament.
I don't think there will be much between the players, but confidence can be huge for players going into tournaments and that is where Haase has to have the edge. It is a pick 'em contest, but I like Haase winning this one.
Monica Puig - 4.5 games v Polona Hercog: It is going to be interesting to see how the players that performed in Florianopolis last week are able to cope with the quick turnaround into the Olympic Games. Monica Puig had a very good week in Florianopolis where she reached the Semi Final and I am looking for her to maintain that momentum against Polona Hercog.
The latter hasn't played a lot of tennis these past few weeks and her confidence can't be in a great place after going 6-15 on the main Tour in 2016 so far. Hercog has lost six of her seven hard court matches on the main Tour this season and all but one of those losses would have seen her fail to come within this number.
Much of the match is going to be determined by the Puig racquet and a strong serving day would give her a significant advantage in this one. That isn't always the case with Puig, but she played well enough last week and looks to be the stronger player on the hard courts compared with Hercog.
There will be competitive moments in this one, but Puig should have the majority of the break point chances and I am looking for her to come through with a 75, 63 win.
Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games v Nao Hibino: I backed Irina-Camelia Begu to beat Nao Hibino and cover the spread last week and she managed to do that with some comfort, even if she made life a little more difficult in the second set than it needed to be. This week she is a slightly stronger favourite to win this match and I am going to back the Florianopolis Champion to back up that success at least through this Round.
Winning a title and maintaining that momentum can be difficult for players on the Tour and you see that on a regular basis through the year. However playing in the Olympic Games should keep Begu focused and she has had a day to get over to Rio de Janeiro and become accustomed to the conditions here.
That isn't a lot of time to get ready, but Begu should be comfortable in this match up where she will have the majority of break points and has to feel she can dictate points for much of the match. The Begu serve has been something of an issue at times over the last week and she can fail to back up the first shot as effectively as she would have wanted, but Begu still managed to win the title last week and that has to give her confidence.
She was the better player when she met Hibino last week and I think she might have a similar margin of victory in this one as last week so I will back her to cover this number.
Caroline Garcia - 5.5 games v Teliana Pereira: On first glance I have to say this looks a big number especially for a Caroline Garcia who has not been in the best recent form. In fact she hasn't been in good form since winning the title in Mallorca prior to Wimbledon and the Frenchwoman is yet to really start fulfilling the potential so many believe she has.
The serve can be a big weapon and Garcia has all the shots as she is effective from the back of the court as much as when she wants to attack the net. However mentally she can lose focus at critical moments and Garcia is also taking on a home favourite in the draw when facing Teliana Pereira.
Backing from the fans can help, but it also may increase the pressure on Pereira to perform in a year in which she has struggled on the main Tour. The hard courts have always been a tough surface for Pereira to get to grips with and she has lost eight of her last nine matches on this surface.
More worrying for her fans has to be way Pereira has fallen away in those matches and she would not have covered this number of games in any of those losses. If Garcia remains focused, she should get enough joy out of her serve to come to a 64, 62 win in this one.
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Jelena Ostapenko won a couple of matches in Florianopolis last week which would have given her a little confidence to take into the Olympic Games. Those wins came after early losses in Washington and Montreal, but Ostapenko would have liked an easier First Round match than this one.
She is facing Samantha Stosur, a player who has produced some of her best tennis on the hard courts through her career. Her serve is a real weapon on this surface, although Stosur has to make sure she protects the limited backhand that so many opponents look to expose when they play the Australian.
Ostapenko had lost four in a row on the hard courts prior to her wins in Florianopolis although it has to be noted that the tournament didn't feature too many big names early in the draw. She had reached the Final in Doha earlier this year which shows Ostapenko can be dangerous on this surface, but she will have to be serving a lot better than she was when losing to Timea Babos last week.
This will be close because Stosur has not exactly been in top form herself and lost a couple of disappointing matches. However I think she can serve a little more effectively than Ostapenko through this match and I believe Stosur can come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 5-1, + 6.96 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58% Yield)
Weekly Update: 10-7, + 5.84 Units (34 Units Staked, + 17.18% Yield)
It was a very strong start to the tournament for my picks as they went 5-1 on Saturday and I am looking to back that up with another strong showing on Sunday to get some momentum behind the tennis picks this week.
I am going to be doing something a little different with the way I show the results this week- I will have totals from the Olympic Games matches and a separate one from the picks from the ATP tournaments in Atlanta and Los Cabos. At the end of the week the results will all be pooled together in the season totals anyway, but I think it is the best way to view the results this week.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: I don't think it is wrong to suggest that Roberto Bautista Agut is the most underrated player in the top 20 of the World Rankings. He hasn't played a lot of tennis in preparation for the Olympic Games, but Bautista Agut is comfortable on almost any surface and I do think he will get the better of Andrey Kuznetsov in this First Round match.
It could have been a much easier draw for the Spaniard than facing Kuznetsov who has had some solid results on the hard courts in 2016. Take away the surprising loss to Ryan Harrison last week in Toronto and you would notice Kuznetsov has reached the Third Round in Indian Wells and Fourth Round in Miami this season.
Both of those runs were further than where Bautista Agut reached the same tournaments, but I think the Spaniard's game will match up well with Kuznetsov. Bautista Agut will make sure he gets plenty of balls back in play, while he protects his serve better than you might expect, especially when up against players Ranked much lower than he is.
I think a few games will be tight and Bautista Agut has to play the big points effectively to make sure he isn't dragged into a potential upset alert. I think Bautista Agut can do that and I like his chances of finding a 64, 64 win.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: It has been a season of injury for Jerzy Janowicz who made his return to the Tour last week for the first time since the Australian Open. He was beaten by Luca Vanni in the first match he played, but the Italian went on to win that Challenger event and we don't really know how Janowicz is feeling heading into the Olympics.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller in this one and the lack of tennis might mean more mistakes when it comes to shot selection which is a feature of Janowicz performances. The serve can be a big weapon, but Janowicz doesn't always back that up as he should and too many drop shots or big errors can give Muller his chances to break the serve.
Muller has not been as effective on the hard courts as someone with his serve should perhaps be, but he hasn't always had the kindest draw. The lefty did push Novak Djokovic in Toronto last week and that is going to give him confidence, while Muller is much more match ready than Janowicz at this point of their careers.
I think that is going to be important and see Muller earn a break more in each of the first two sets in this one and get passed Janowicz with a 64, 64 win.
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: On first glance there will be plenty of people out there that feel this is too many games for Fabio Fognini to cover. The Italian isn't blessed with the biggest serve while his erratic play means he could be in a difficult position to cover very quickly within a match.
However I do think Fognini can get the better of Victor Estrella Burgos as the veteran usually reserves his best form for the clay courts. In fact a deeper look will show that take out the success that Estrella Burgos had in Quito, where he won the title, and he would have a poor 7-14 record on the main Tour this season.
It has been really bad for Estrella Burgos on the hard courts where is 1-6 this season and he has lost his last five hard court matches. Of those losses, Estrella Burgos would have failed to get within this number four times and losses to the likes of Jordan Thompson, Sam Groth and Taylor Fritz won't inspire a lot of confidence in him.
Like I've said, you don't know what you will get from Fognini on any day. However I think the Italian does play very strong tennis when representing his nation and Fognini can find a way to win this one 64, 63.
Robin Haase v Joao Sousa: Last year was a career year for Joao Sousa, but this is a player who is now slipping down the World Ranking. In 2015 Sousa won 34 matches on the Tour, but he has only won 15 this season and brings in a losing record into what is a difficult time of the season for him.
Maybe the Olympic Games can change things, but the hard courts have not been the favoured surface for Sousa, although he can at least point to the fact that Robin Haase is not at his best on the surface either.
This is the first hard court match Haase has played since the Indian Wells tournament back in March, but the Dutchman has played well since Wimbledon. Winning a Challenger event and reaching the Semi Final of a main Tour event is better form than what Sousa has produced in 2016 and Haase has produced it at the right time to build momentum into this tournament.
I don't think there will be much between the players, but confidence can be huge for players going into tournaments and that is where Haase has to have the edge. It is a pick 'em contest, but I like Haase winning this one.
Monica Puig - 4.5 games v Polona Hercog: It is going to be interesting to see how the players that performed in Florianopolis last week are able to cope with the quick turnaround into the Olympic Games. Monica Puig had a very good week in Florianopolis where she reached the Semi Final and I am looking for her to maintain that momentum against Polona Hercog.
The latter hasn't played a lot of tennis these past few weeks and her confidence can't be in a great place after going 6-15 on the main Tour in 2016 so far. Hercog has lost six of her seven hard court matches on the main Tour this season and all but one of those losses would have seen her fail to come within this number.
Much of the match is going to be determined by the Puig racquet and a strong serving day would give her a significant advantage in this one. That isn't always the case with Puig, but she played well enough last week and looks to be the stronger player on the hard courts compared with Hercog.
There will be competitive moments in this one, but Puig should have the majority of the break point chances and I am looking for her to come through with a 75, 63 win.
Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games v Nao Hibino: I backed Irina-Camelia Begu to beat Nao Hibino and cover the spread last week and she managed to do that with some comfort, even if she made life a little more difficult in the second set than it needed to be. This week she is a slightly stronger favourite to win this match and I am going to back the Florianopolis Champion to back up that success at least through this Round.
Winning a title and maintaining that momentum can be difficult for players on the Tour and you see that on a regular basis through the year. However playing in the Olympic Games should keep Begu focused and she has had a day to get over to Rio de Janeiro and become accustomed to the conditions here.
That isn't a lot of time to get ready, but Begu should be comfortable in this match up where she will have the majority of break points and has to feel she can dictate points for much of the match. The Begu serve has been something of an issue at times over the last week and she can fail to back up the first shot as effectively as she would have wanted, but Begu still managed to win the title last week and that has to give her confidence.
She was the better player when she met Hibino last week and I think she might have a similar margin of victory in this one as last week so I will back her to cover this number.
Caroline Garcia - 5.5 games v Teliana Pereira: On first glance I have to say this looks a big number especially for a Caroline Garcia who has not been in the best recent form. In fact she hasn't been in good form since winning the title in Mallorca prior to Wimbledon and the Frenchwoman is yet to really start fulfilling the potential so many believe she has.
The serve can be a big weapon and Garcia has all the shots as she is effective from the back of the court as much as when she wants to attack the net. However mentally she can lose focus at critical moments and Garcia is also taking on a home favourite in the draw when facing Teliana Pereira.
Backing from the fans can help, but it also may increase the pressure on Pereira to perform in a year in which she has struggled on the main Tour. The hard courts have always been a tough surface for Pereira to get to grips with and she has lost eight of her last nine matches on this surface.
More worrying for her fans has to be way Pereira has fallen away in those matches and she would not have covered this number of games in any of those losses. If Garcia remains focused, she should get enough joy out of her serve to come to a 64, 62 win in this one.
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Jelena Ostapenko won a couple of matches in Florianopolis last week which would have given her a little confidence to take into the Olympic Games. Those wins came after early losses in Washington and Montreal, but Ostapenko would have liked an easier First Round match than this one.
She is facing Samantha Stosur, a player who has produced some of her best tennis on the hard courts through her career. Her serve is a real weapon on this surface, although Stosur has to make sure she protects the limited backhand that so many opponents look to expose when they play the Australian.
Ostapenko had lost four in a row on the hard courts prior to her wins in Florianopolis although it has to be noted that the tournament didn't feature too many big names early in the draw. She had reached the Final in Doha earlier this year which shows Ostapenko can be dangerous on this surface, but she will have to be serving a lot better than she was when losing to Timea Babos last week.
This will be close because Stosur has not exactly been in top form herself and lost a couple of disappointing matches. However I think she can serve a little more effectively than Ostapenko through this match and I believe Stosur can come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 5-1, + 6.96 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58% Yield)
Weekly Update: 10-7, + 5.84 Units (34 Units Staked, + 17.18% Yield)
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