Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 3rd August)

The Quarter Final lineup at the Canadian Masters will be confirmed at the end of the Sunday action and there were a couple of upsets on Saturday that will have made the leading contenders a little more focused.

It looks a difficult day from which to make Picks, but there are two matches on the Men's side of the tournament in Toronto that seem to fit the bill.

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This is the time of the season when Frances Tiafoe has tended to flourish with strong runs in his home Grand Slam the highlight.

He also reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters in 2024, although Frances Tiafoe has not had a big impact at the Canadian Masters with some early exits in the last couple of years. It looked like being another opening Round defeat earlier in the event, although Tiafoe showed his character to rally, while following up with another victory that needed all three sets to be played.

Now he has to take on Washington Champion Alex De Minaur who has benefited from a Walkover in the Third Round.

This should mean the Australian is fresh having played through to the weekend in Washington and he has only needed to play a single match here in Toronto to take his place in the Fourth Round. It has been a really solid season for Alex De Minuar on the hard courts and he is getting closer to surpassing the career best World Ranking mark of Number 6 which was set thirteen months ago.

With nothing to defend in terms of Ranking points in Canada and Cincinnati, Alex De Minaur can play with some freedom and he continues to operate as a player that tends to beat those he is expected to beat, but perhaps still looking to find a way to get closer to the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

The World Number 8 is getting plenty out of an improving serve, and Alex De Minaur remains a very dangerous return player.

These players have not met on the Tour since October 2022 so there will be some learning to be done on the court with both Tiafoe and De Minaur stronger than they were when last facing off on an indoor court at the Paris Masters.

Frances Tiafoe is going to have to serve well to try and keep Alex De Minaur contained, but there is a big difference in the way they have gone about their return games and the successes that they have had.

He is better than the sum of his parts, but Frances Tiafoe continues to operate at very fine margins and someone playing at the level of Alex De Minaur may have too much about him. As long as the higher Ranked player continues to return as well as he has been, he can wear down Tiafoe in a tournament where the latter has not had the same type of successes as Cincinnati and New York City.

Andrey Rublev v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: One Washington Finalist can force their way through to the Quarter Final of the Canadian Masters, but it may be tougher for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to work his way past Andrey Rublev.

After playing so well in Washington and arguably deserving to win the title, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been very good in winning two matches in Toronto. The form is hard to ignore and he is at a peak career World Ranking inside the top 20, although it feels like the Spaniard has operated at a higher level than that.

It is the third Final lost on the hard courts in 2025, but the Alejandro Davidovich Fokina numbers have not exactly leapt off the page.

The serve is sometimes a vulnerability on the hard courts, but the Spaniard is a capable returner and that does give him chances.

Andrey Rublev has fallen out of the top ten in the World Rankings and he has a 13-9 record on the hard courts in 2025, although he has been a dominant winner to keep the numbers at a decent level. He has won two good matches in Toronto, but there have been plenty of disappointing losses over the course of the season as Andrey Rublev has tried to turn his form around, at least from a consistency point of view.

His serve can be very productive on the hard courts and that is going to be important to try and keep the opponent under the cosh.

He has also broken in 20% of return games played on the hard courts this season and that makes Andrey Rublev dangerous against an opponent he had beaten five straight times before losing to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won their last match on the clay courts of Barcelona earlier this season.

They have been competitive matches between the players, but the Rublev serve could be key with a few more cheaper points that can be earned. This can make the difference in what should be another close match and Andrey Rublev can come through as the narrow underdog in this Fourth Round encounter.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 9-4, + 3.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.69% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Israil Madrimov vs Terence Crawford (Saturday 3rd August)

July is usually a good time to have a break in the Boxing season, although the reimagining of the sport does mean we are more spoiled as fans with plenty of decent cards being produced every weekend.

The last month has seen some of the contenders return to the ring in a bid to earn a bigger fight later in the year, while some potential star names have also been in action.

And the best news is that plenty of solid fights have already been put together for the second half of the year, culminating in what is expected to be the Heavyweight rematch between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk.

There is no doubting the influence of the Saudi money that has entered the sport and we will see more evidence of that this weekend when the first card run under the Riyadh Season banner is produced outside of Saudi Arabia.

Another one of those events is taking place at Wembley Stadium in around six weeks time, but this weekend the eyes of the fans will turn to Los Angeles and the return of Terence Crawford.

He will be aiming to become a World Champion in the Light Middleweight Division and a win will see Bud turn his attention back to becoming an opponent for Canelo Alvarez. This is a fight that the Saudi Arabians are very keen to get on in 2025, but a loss to Israil Madrimov will temper some of the enthusiasm and so there is pressure on Crawford in moving up from the Welterweight Division where was crowned King in 2023.

Like many Saudi run cards, the undercard is a decent one too even if some of the star power of the announcement has been dampened with the removal of the Tim Tsyzu vs Vergil Ortiz Jr fight after the Australian was not able to recover from severe cuts in time.

There is still plenty for the fans to enjoy and the fighters have plenty of motivation to perform knowing that there is an undercard to fill later this year when the Heavyweight rematch between Fury and Usyk takes place.

In terms of the first six months of the 2024 season, the Boxing Picks have produced a positive return.

However, the feeling is that the overall win-loss could still be improved, and that would only strengthen the returns even more. Regardless, any season with a winning return has to be appreciated and the bounce back from the disappointing 2023 has been solid, even if the numbers have not quite reached the 2022 numbers set.

There are still five months of 2024 to go though and a chance to pick up some momentum into the next 'season' and that has to be the aim the rest of the way.

Israil Madrimov vs Terence Crawford

The last twelve months have spoilt Boxing fans with some believing this card in Los Angeles is not as strong as it might have been under the Riyadh Season banner.

Personally, the glass half full approach is still working with the kind of fights we are seeing and there is little doubt that many of those taking place on this card would not be happening without that influence from the Middle East.

Another positive for fans is the willingness to put the money into events that are not happening solely in Saudi Arabia and having an opportunity to see Terence Crawford has to be big news for the fans who will be attending.

Undisputed successes as a Light-Welterweight and Welterweight has had Bud searching for new challenges- after moving up from Light-Welterweight, Crawford quickly picked up the WBO World Title and eventually was able to dismantle Errol Spence Jr a little over twelve months ago to hold all the World Titles in the Division.

He had been waiting on Errol Spence Jr and his decision to activate a rematch, but as soon as it became clear that was not going to be the case, Bud Crawford called out Canelo Alvarez. This was an unlikely fight to be put together in 2024 and instead Crawford is going up to Light Middleweight in his bid to become a World Champion in another Division.

Terence Crawford is favoured against the Champion Israil Madrimov, but it would be foolish to overlook the obvious qualities of the undefeated Uzbek.

The dimensions of the two fighters are pretty similar with Crawford having the edge in reach, but Israil Madrimov is the naturally bigger man. All of his bouts have been in the Light Middleweight Division and Madrimov has proved to be a tough, grizzled fighter, and he will need all of that in this bout.

My personal expectation is that Israil Madrimov is going to be able to give Terence Crawford something to think about through the first quarter of this World Title fight.

He is going to come forward and look to use his natural size to cause problems, but there is a feeling that Bud Crawford is then going to begin to make the adjustments that we have seen throughout his career. The Uzbek is a quality fighter, but perhaps lacks a bit of experience at this very elite level and the style is perhaps a touch basic, which is only going to make things that much more comfortable for Crawford when the adjustments are made.

Changing things in the ring will feel more difficult for Madrimov and this is where Crawford can begin to target the body and use the counter shot to really begin to put the dent into his opponent. The Champion is a much liver opponent than some will believe and it would not be a surprise if he is leading on the cards through the first two-thirds of the contest, but Bud will be reeling him in and a spiteful fighter he has been will likely see him pushing through the gears and wear out his man.

The Points call for Terence Crawford is certainly one that looks to offer some value, but he is on an eleven fight streak of winning by Stoppage and he can force an intervention in this one too. If he does hurt Madrimov, Bud is not likely to step off, but will pour it on and the feeling is that he might do enough to wear down, break down and eventually get this one done without the cards.

The year out of the ring has to be a slight concern for Crawford fans and it would be a huge statement if he can force the first half Stoppage, but you have to note that four of the last eleven Stoppages have been before the bell for the Seventh Round. Israil Madrimov is a proud, unbeaten World Champion and one who is grizzled enough to take plenty of shots before it becomes too much and a small play on the second half Terence Crawford Stoppage is the call.

The Riyadh Season cards have been pretty loaded and this one feels the same, if perhaps not meeting the inflated expectations Boxing fans have after being spoiled over the last twelve months.

David Morrell is another up and coming Super Middleweight who has felt his career is perhaps being stalled by the hold up of all the World Titles by Canelo Alvarez, who does not sound like he has much interest in facing the unbeaten Cuban.

Instead of waiting around, Morrell is following the David Benavidez path and that means moving into the Light Heavyweight Division and fighting for the Regular WBA World Title with the Super belt held by Dmitry Bivol. The idea will be to be in a position to fight the winner of the Beterbiev-Bivol Undisputed World Title fight set for early October, whlle Morrell can operate between the two Divisions for now.

He is a massive favourite to beat Radivoje Kalajdzic, a fighter who was Stopped in the Fifth Round when facing Artur Beterbiev in 2019.

Stepping up is tough and the layers are taking no chances with the prices for this one, but David Morrell has shown a brutal streak and he should be able to match the Beterbiev victory and just put his name in line to take on the bigger fights that the Saudi Arabians may be thinking of putting together over the next nine months.

The fast moving Andy Cruz should be a comfortable winner and he will want to step up his competition following this weekend, while there is plenty of intrigue when Jared Anderson, one of the potential new stars in the Heavyweight Division with plenty of hype behind him, takes on Martin Bakole, a fighter who believes he has been avoided by the elite.

This is the fight that the layers feel is the most competitive on the card and one that will be a lot of fun for however long it lasts.

Two fighters who will forever be spoken about in the same breath thanks to June 1st 2019 will be meeting one another in what is very much a crossroads fight.

Jarrell Miller failed a drugs test when he was supposed to be facing Anthony Joshua for the World Titles at Madison Square Garden, but his misfortune was Andy Ruiz Jr's blessing and the latter upset the odds by beating Joshua in the Seventh Round.

Six months later he came in overweight for the rematch, was comfortably beaten on the cards and Ruiz Jr has fought just twice since in 2021 and 2022. A lot of fighters have claimed that Andy Ruiz Jr has priced himself out of fights in the last couple of years and it will be very difficult to restart the career if he is to be beaten by Miller on Saturday considering Big Baby is coming in off a Stoppage loss of his own.

The New Yorker has been much more active than Andy Ruiz Jr in recent times, but Jarrell Miller had been given three comfortable opponents before being paired up with Daniel Dubois just before Christmas in 2023. He was beaten around the ring and eventually Stopped in the final Round before having more out of the ring issues and Miller will know that another defeat here will mean his career is in danger.

You have to believe the quickness edge is with Ruiz Jr and that is why he is a pretty strong favourite, but his mental approach to boxing has to be questioned. Money is a motivation, but does Ruiz Jr really want to get back to the top and the two year lay off is a huge concern.

In saying that, Jarrell Miller looked really poor against Daniel Dubois and so this is an intriguing fight between two friends who know one will move onto bigger prizes, while the other might have to wonder whether the rebuild is really going to be worth putting themselves through.

The chief support is going to be provided by Isaac Cruz who faces an interesting challenger in Jose Valenzuela with the WBA Light Welterweight World Title on the line.

The mistake for Cruz and his team would be to overlook this opponent- they have been calling for a potential rematch with Tank Davis, who looks to be at a loose end come the end of the 2024 calendar year, but Jose Valenzuela is coming into the fight having ended a run of consecutive defeats with a very strong Stoppage of Chris Colbert.

The initial defeat to Colbert nine months earlier had been filled with controversy, but Jose Valenzuela made sure the judges could not do the same in the Sixth Round win last December.

He is moving up in weight to take on the challenge of Pitbull who fights for a second time in 2024 having crushed Rolly Romero to win this World Title. The key for Isaac Cruz is going to be his focus and he will have noted that Valenzuela has been Stopped before by big hitting Edwin De Los Santos.

These two are unlikely to have to go looking for the other and that should mean a really fun contest for the fans to enjoy.

The power edge may be with Isaac Cruz, but Jose Valenzuela will believe in his own and that should make for a good watch.

My edge is with Isaac Cruz who has the momentum behind him, but he has been troubled by a southpaw before and that is something that the Valenzuela team will lean into. The challenger is the taller fighter and could try and frustrate Pitbull by keeping the fight at length, but it is tough to do over Twelve Rounds and there is some history between the two which could see emotion drag Valenzuela into a fight, rather than sticking to the game plan.

Jose Valenzuela may also want to prove he is not 'chinny' but that could lead to being in dangerous positions in the ring and Isaac Cruz hits plenty hard.

Once again, the layers look to be on top of this bout, but the lean has to be that Isaac Cruz finds a big shot or two that forces this to become a firefight and ultimately that is where he should prevail.

There is a card being held in a Stadium in the United Kingdom on Saturday and the Sky Sports television cameras will head to Barnsley to see if home fighter Callum Simpson looks to win the British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Titles.

At 14-0 and 27 years old, Simpson will be looking for a real move up the Rankings towards the World level in a Division headed up by Canelo Alvarez. The chances that the World Titles will be fracturing over the next twelve months by which time Callum Simpson will have hoped to have developed to the extent of being able to challenge for any of the titles available.

Slipping up here is not on the agenda as he faces Champion Zak Chelli who feels like he has been around a long time, but who is actually the younger fighter.

Make no mistake, there are more miles on the clock for Chelli in comparison with Callum Simpson, although the Londoner will feel that his experience is going to be telling at this level.

Zak Chelli is tough, grizzled and will not allow Callum Simpson room to breathe, but the latter has shown he is not simply a Knock Out merchant. A couple of tough Unanimous Decision wins over Ten Round distance will just show Simpson that he does have the gas tank to operate deep into fights, although he will be tested like never before.

Stopping Chelli is not going to be easy considering the strength and resolve the Champion has, but he has been beaten on the cards. Mark Jeffers showed that a little over twelve months ago when beating Chelli for the English Super Middleweight Title, and Callum Simpson can just show his quality in winning this one after the cards have been read.

MY PICKS: Terence Crawford to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Callum Simpson to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 24-41, + 12.04 Units (88 Units Staked, + 13.68% Yield)

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 8 Picks 2024 (Saturday 3rd August)

The men's Gold Medal match is the one that the fans would have all hoped for at the Paris Olympic Games, but the Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz hype will just have to slow down for a while.

Iga Swiatek has won the Bronze Medal, but the women's Gold Medal match is set for Saturday and we are going to have another surprising winner regardless of the outcome. This has been a feature of women's tennis in recent years, while especially being the case at the recent Olympic Games, and the entire draw will feel there is an opportunity to win a big title when they head to New York City for the US Open.

Qinwen Zheng - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: Winning a Grand Slam remains the ultimate prize for any player on the Tour, but the opportunity to win a Gold Medal is one that many would like to have.

It is Qinwen Zheng and Donna Vekic who have that chance on Saturday having made their way through the Paris Olympics draw and both have been playing with plenty of confidence over the last month.

Last month Donna Vekic reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon before losing a tough battle against Jasmine Paolini, but all credit has to be given to the Croatian for the performances so far this week. The clay courts are the weakest surface on which Vekic will perform and she had a losing record on the surface for the second season in a row prior to her run in Paris.

Donna Vekic did reach the Third Round at the French Open, but had only won one match in her three tournaments in Stuttgart, Madrid and Rome and she would have been a big price to reach the Gold Medal match at this event.

Qinwen Zheng also had a disappointing run at the French Open, but she won a clay court title in Palermo in July between Wimbledon and the Olympic Games. This means she has a 22-8 record on the clay over the last two seasons before arriving in Paris and winning five matches here, including the upset of Iga Swiatek in the Semi Final.

There have been some rough moments for both players- Zheng was very close to losing to Emma Navarro and Angelique Kerber, while Donna Vekic was incredibly fortunate to beat Marta Kostyuk in the Quarter Final. Those will not be a major concern going into the Gold Medal match, especially with a day of rest for the players between the Semi Final and this one.

Out of the two players, Qinwen Zheng has the clay court pedigree to take home the Gold Medal, while she also went one better than Donna Vekic as the Australian Open Finalist earlier this season before losing to Aryna Sabalenka. That should help in trying to handle the nerves and the pressure of the occasion, while the Zheng serve has perhaps been operating in a stronger fashion than the Croatian's.

This could make the difference in the Gold Medal match and Qinwen Zheng can back up the most recent meeting between the players which was won in three sets on a hard court in October 2023. On the clay, you would have to favour Qinwen Zheng a little bit more and she can find a way to win the match and cover this mark, especially with Donna Vekic perhaps not as accustomed to the conditions in the middle of the day as her opponent.

MY PICKS: Qinwen Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Paris Olympics Update: 7-10, - 8.50 Units (34 Units Staked, - 25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 3rd)

I have begun writing this post out on Thursday, but the lack of angles from the ATP Kitzbuhel Semi Final matches meant I was always going to wait until Friday before posting any Tennis Picks.

Looking back at the overnight results from Thursday and it has become clear that this week has been turned around effectively after opening up with a 0-4 start.

Since then the Tennis Picks have gone 13-3 to move this week into a positive position, but I do want to put a neat bow on things by making sure there is something to add to the season totals. We still have a couple of days this week before the first of the back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati so there is still work to be done.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: If you're looking for a player to be a genuine contender for the US Open title at the end of this month and want to oppose the favourites then I think Juan Martin Del Potro could be the man you want on your side.

He is currently at double digit quotes to win a second US Open title but that could shorten significantly if he has a strong time on the hard courts over the next three weeks. The Argentinian has already showed how good he can be on this surface by winning titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells already this season, while Del Potro backed those weeks up by reaching the Miami Semi Final.

Being injury free is always the question mark around Del Potro these days, but he is coming into this month as healthy as he has looked all season and is also closing in on his highest ever World Ranking. There also has been no suggestions he has arrived in Los Cabos to only enjoy the beach with a couple of dominating wins, although Damir Dzumhur provides a tougher challenge.

Even then Del Potro has some stunning numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and his return game has been of a similar level to when he won the US Open back in 2009. Those will put some real pressure on Dzumhur who has not been at his best on the hard courts in 2018 and I do think the serve is going to be under attack for much of this match.

Del Potro has won both previous matches against Dzumhur and he has been strong in both of those wins. I anticipate he will have the majority of break point chances in this match and I like Del Potro to cover a big looking number on his way to the Final here.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: On Thursday I backed David Goffin to cover this same number against another talented youngster coming up on the Tour and he managed to do that very comfortably. I have little doubt it will be tougher for him when he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I will look for the Belgian to do that again.

There is no doubt that Tsitsipas is developing in a manner which will make him a threat to win many Grand Slam titles in the years ahead and he has all the makings of a future World Number 1. However Tsitsipas is still a work in progress and has to get more out of his return game if he is going to take the next step in his very young career.

The serve is a huge weapon for the Greek player though and it is one that can build pressure on opponents when Tsitsipas is at his best. Winning two matches in Washington already suggests he is near his top level especially when you look at the way Tsitsipas has beaten Jared Donaldson and James Duckworth but this is a significant step up in class.

David Goffin might not have the eye-catching serve that some players have, but it has been good enough for him and he is holding almost 80% of his service games on the hard courts. That should be a number he can replicate against Tsitsipas who has struggled on the return, while that also should give Goffin a chance to go on the attack when in his own return games.

The Belgian has a very good return game and I do think he can put some pressure on Tsitsipas in this Quarter Final from that side of things. I expect Goffin to really try and get after the second serve and I like his chances of beating Tsitsipas in a tight match.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The Australian Open was a huge tournament for Elise Mertens who reached the Semi Final Down Under, but playing on the hard courts has been much more difficult for her since then.

Since that stunning run through the draw which came up a little short, Mertens' numbers have really declined and it is perhaps no surprise that she is just 4-5 on this surfaced since February.

Now she has to face a confident Johanna Konta who backed up her crushing of Serena Williams with another strong performance in the Second Round. Konta inflicted the worst loss in Serena's career and she is a player that has had considerable success on the hard courts over the last couple of years to believe she could round into some good form over the next month despite a disappointing 2018 so far.

To be fair to Konta, her numbers on the hard courts have been very similar to the last couple of years but she has not been able to win the close matches to prolong her run in tournaments. The win over Serena Williams may be the shot of confidence Konta needed to make those close losses turn into close wins and I think she is the superior hard court player in this match.

These players met at the Miami Premier Event earlier this season and it was Konta who crushed Mertens for the loss of just three games. I doubt it is as straight-forward as that again, but I do think Konta can keep things rolling in San Jose by winning this match and covering the number.


Venus Williams - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: I picked Timea Babos to beat Maria Sakkari on Thursday and that has to be the worst pick I have made this week as Babos won a single game in a heavy loss.

However I am not willing to knock my theory on the head that Sakkari is massively overachieving in terms of her results at the moment and her numbers don't back her up.

I have to give her some credit for protecting the second serve as she has done, but Sakkari's return numbers are down and now she faces Venus Williams who is still playing at a decent level. The American is clearly in decline these days but she has managed to produce a solid 10-4 record on the hard courts and the serve remains a decent weapon for her.

The key to this match is that Venus Williams is still returning much better than Sakkari and I don't think the latter will be able to get away with too many second serves in this one. All credit to Sakkari for putting the wins together as she has, but I do want to oppose her here even if I am on the wrong side of things for a second day in a row.

I was expecting Venus Williams to be a much stronger favourite than is the case and I will look for the veteran to get this done and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, + 24.10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (August 3rd)

Novak Djokovic has called an end to his 2017 season with a lingering injury, and another big name will be worrying about their own injury issues going into the next month ahead of the US Open.

Maria Sharapova has only just returned from a long lay off from injury, but she had to pull out of her Second Round match in Stanford, although the Russian insists it is only a precautionary decision. After all the hullabaloo surrounding her return from the ban imposed by the ITF, Sharapova has had a tough time in 2017 with those injuries beginning to have a toll on her.

She is likely going to have to play the Qualifiers at the US Open barring a surprising Wild Card into the main draw and Sharapova will be hoping she can be healthy for the big events in Toronto and Cincinnati upcoming. All in all it has not been the fairytale return to the Tour that some would have been expecting (remember Sharapova was the second favourite to win the French Open a few days after her return to the Tour) and she looks to be in a position where she will simply be hoping to have a few months of injury free tennis before using the off-season to recharge the batteries.


The tournaments being played this week continue on Thursday and the tennis matches are spread throughout the day with events being played in Europe and North and Central America. With the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos having their markets prepared in the coming hours, I will begin with the two picks from Kitzbuhel before adding any picks I have from those events in Washington, Los Cabos and Stanford.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: It is hard to trust Fabio Fognini when you know this is a player who can blow hot and cold as much as the Italian can. Add in the fact he had a long week in Gstaad where he won the title and those factors do concern me.

He is also facing an opponent in Thomaz Bellucci who is very capable on the clay courts and who has had two solid wins already in the main draw to move into the Quarter Final. Those have come at an important time for the Brazilian who had lost nine of his last ten matches including the last seven in a row before this week.

Some of those losses have been narrow ones which may underline the lack of confidence Bellucci had to be playing with in recent weeks. However narrow losses also means it could be a big ask for Fognini to cover the number of games I am looking from him.

In saying Bellucci has lost some tight matches, I really mean by the numbers rather than on the scoreboard. During his run of nine losses in ten matches, Bellucci was beaten seven times in best of three set matches and would not have covered this number six times.

A poor record against Fognini can't be ignored either, even if there is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind that the Italian could always be in 'gift giving' mode. On this day I am hoping for the motivated Fognini that had been in action last week and I will look for him to find his way past Bellucci with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.


Gerald Melzer + 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: It might be something of a surprise that I am taking the games with a player that spends the majority of his time in tournaments on the Challenger Tour when facing an opponent who has played ATP events throughout 2017. But that is the case when I look for Gerald Melzer to give Joao Sousa plenty to think about in this Quarter Final.

You have to give Melzer credit for another good run in Kitzbuhel as he reached a Quarter Final for the second year in a row. Last year Melzer made it through to the Semi Final and I think the two wins he has this week have to be respected.

Now he faces Joao Sousa who has just started winning matches again after a really poor run of form. Sousa reached the Quarter Final last week in Gstaad and he has done the same here despite previously losing eleven of twelve matches on the Tour. That would have knocked the confidence of Sousa and he has needed three sets twice already this week.

If this one is to go into a third set, Melzer will have his chance to cover with this number of games behind him. Melzer has some confidence having had two strong showings in the Challenger events in Perugia and Cortina, although I do respect the fact that Sousa is an upgrade in level of opponent to anyone that Melzer has played since his participating in the Golden Swing tournaments in South America.

Home comforts may help Melzer control the nerves and I think he can keep this match close. His numbers in 2017 have suggested that too, while Sousa is 0-3 when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2017 and with some poor numbers behind him. I will look for Gerald Melzer to take at least a set and that should give him a chance to cover with the games.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: With the Canada Masters event just a few days away, the ATP event in Los Cabos has reached the Quarter Final Round on Thursday. That will give time for the players to head over to Montreal, even those who may be competing on Finals day, and one of those keen to go all the way will be Tomas Berdych.

A great field hasn't been put together for this draw, which is no surprise with the back to back Masters events which will begin next week. Add in the fact there is an ATP 500 event being played in Washington, and this tournament has felt more in line with a glorified Challenger tournament adding in a couple of big names.

Berdych does look the stand out player in the draw and he is a big favourite to see off Adrian Mannarino against whom he has a 4-0 head to head record. That includes a relatively straightforward win in the Miami Masters on the hard courts and I think Berdych is likely to match that margin here.

On that day it ended 6-3, 7-5 for Berdych as he was able to dictate things behind the serve and force a couple of loose games from the Mannarino serve. While I do think the left-handed Frenchman will be able to get through a few games on serve, he is always close to throwing in a really poor one and that can make up for the declining return numbers Berdych has produced over the last twelve months.

To give Berdych his credit, he has been returning a little better in recent matches and I think that will be enough to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are definitely some positive signs for Jared Donaldson as he learns more and more from being on the main ATP Tour. The experiences he is having will be a positive for the 20 year old player in the coming years, but I still think he is a little short of being able to compete with the better players on the Tour.

Jack Sock may not be in the best form and he may have a limited return game which puts pressure on him to serve at his highest level. However he is still strong on the North American hard courts and the heavy forehand can give Donaldson some problems as it did when they met earlier in 2017 in a match where the younger American won just three games.

The Donaldson numbers have been slightly weaker when he has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts compared to when he has faced top 50 players. Slightly weaker service points won and return points won do make a big difference and I think that is going to show up when he faces Sock in the Third Round in Washington.

This isn't the kind of number Sock is used to covering as shown by the fact he has won eleven of twelve matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings on the hard courts, but only in five of those has he covered this number. At odds against it is worth chancing though having shown he can get into the Donaldson service games when they played in Miami as well as Donaldson's generally weaker numbers when serving against top 20 opponents.

Sock will have to take the chances that do come his way, but I think he can earn enough break point chances to bring up three breaks of serve which may be enough for a 7-6, 6-3 win on the day.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for the way he was serving in his Second Round win over Lucas Pouille, although the Frenchman underlined my belief that his limited return game is going to prevent him staying inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

If Paul is serving as well as he was this will be a tough match for Gilles Muller, although the mental edge belongs to the latter having crushed the young American for the loss of four games last week in Atlanta.

Fatigue may have gotten the better of Paul last week as that defeat came after winning four matches in a row all in three sets. That has to be considered, but Paul will also be dealing with the mental pressure of losing return games fairly comfortably if Muller is serving as well as he can.

This is still a big number of games being asked of Muller and I am only interested because it is offered at odds against for him to cover. He crushed Dmitry Tursunov on Wednesday and Paul is coming off a career best win which can be tough for inexperienced players to back up as we see regularly through the course of a year on the Tour.

Muller serving first would be important and I think he can then earn the two breaks to win this one 6-3, 6-4.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: The problem with backing Simona Halep to cover spreads like this one on the hard courts is the fact that her serve is not the biggest and she has to work so hard to protect it. Over the course of a match that means opponents do have their chances to break serve and those can be critical despite the Romanian being the kind of returner who will create plenty of pressure off the return herself.

The return game is very important on the WTA Tour and Mariana Duque-Marino is capable of breaking the Halep serve. The win over Shelby Rogers was impressive in the First Round, but this is another step up in class for Duque-Marino.

She is facing an opponent who has a 14-3 record on the hard courts over the last four years when facing a player Ranked outside the top 100. Halep has been very good in that spot in 2017 with strong numbers produced, but I don't think those are sustainable which is a concern for me.

However, Halep is 9-5 against this number in those fourteen wins in that time while Duque-Marino is 0-6 lifetime against a top 10 Ranked player and is 1-5 with this number of games behind her. Duque-Marino is also 0-7 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and she has only covered with this number of games once and I do think Halep will prove to be too good on the day.

Clay is the best surface for Mariana Duque-Marino and her numbers on the hard courts are slightly weaker across the board compared with clay. While she challenged Halep on the clay back in 2011, Halep is a much stronger player these days and I will look for her to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.


Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have said for a few years that Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most overrated players on the WTA Tour with many pricing her up on her one strong season back in 2014. While Bouchard did have a winning record in 2016, this is a player that has struggled on the Tour and her Number 59 World Ranking is testament to that.

The Canadian is overrated and that can be highlighted by the fact she has been a favourite twenty-one times over the last twelve months. Bouchard has won just 33% of those matches which is a remarkably poor record (7-14) and some of her best results in that time have come when set as the underdog and the pressure free environment that may be creating for her.

Even her First Round win here came as the underdog against Christina McHale so I am questioning the fact I am taking Bouchard to win this match as the favourite. However I thought she would be a much stronger favourite to beat the declining Andrea Petkovic who has slipped down to Number 78 in the World Rankings.

Petkovic is just 8-15 on the Tour this season and the German is another player who tends to be priced up with her previous form in mind rather than what she is producing on the court these days. Over the last two seasons Petkovic is just 28-35 when playing top 100 Ranked players and that becomes 16-17 on the hard courts.

Both players have had their issues, but I think Bouchard has been the slightly superior performer which can show up on the scoreboard. Expect breaks of serve and expect a deciding set, but I will look for Bouchard to earn the narrow victory and cover this number.


Alison Riske v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The final pick from the Thursday tennis matches comes from Stanford where I am looking for the underdog Alison Riske to get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

I am not entirely sure why Riske is the underdog considering she has the 3-1 advantage on the head to head and has certainly been showing superior form in recent weeks compared with Pavlyuchenkova.

The better hard court results in 2017 have come from Pavlyuchenkova, but she is returning to the surface after a poor grass court season. This is also an event where Riske reached the Semi Final last season and the American put together a solid win in the First Round which will have given her confidence back in Stanford.

The recent numbers on this surface are very similar for both Riske and Pavlyuchenkova and that is where the recent positive form and the head to head lead Riske has could pay off.

It won't be an easy match for Riske if Pavlyuchenkova is at her best with her ability to hit very big and take the racquet out of the hand of the American. However, I think Riske is playing well enough and Pavlyuchenkova has not been in the best form to think the former can come through with a three set win and I will back the underdog here.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-11, - 8.50 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.61% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 3rd)

We might only be in the middle of the week, but the tournament in Florianopolis has already reached the Quarter Final stage as they look to get that event done before the Olympic Games begin on Saturday.

The other event are taking a more recognisable course during their week as we will see half of the Second Round matches played in Atlanta and Nanchang on Wednesday and the other half on Thursday which means the final three days of the tournaments are left for the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Final.

I am not that interested in the Nanchang event with the lack of real quality in the field, while any picks from the matches that have not been set in Atlanta and Florianopolis will have to be added on Wednesday if they do make appeal.

For now I will concentrate on picks from the three ATP Second Round matches set in Atlanta for Wednesday.


Reilly Opelka + 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: Backing a former Junior Wimbledon Champion whose career has been stalled thanks to injuries might be dangerous when not getting that many games against someone as solid as Kevin Anderson. However Reilly Opelka is a big man with a big serve and while there is still room for improvement in his game, that serve alone could make him a dangerous player in years to come.

It won't be often that Anderson has to look up at an opponent, but that is the case in this Second Round match and the courts are playing fast enough to make Opelka a danger to the Seeded player. I do think the Opelka return game has plenty of room for improvement, but Anderson is also a limited returner and the chances of seeing tie-breakers and few break point chance can make this number of games very appealing.

Anderson played well in Toronto last week which might be a sign of a change in his performances in 2016, but he has been inconsistent through the season. While he will also have plenty of success behind the serve, the Opelka wing span might be able to get enough balls back in play to fashion mistakes, although the key to this match in respect of this spread is how well Anderson returns.

His own size will mean he will likely get more balls back in play than Opelka is perhaps going to be accustomed to, and that can cause problems. However this is a big serve that will take Anderson out of his comfort zone and the price on the handicap makes this appealing to back the young American with the head start.


Tim Smyczek + 3.5 games v Donald Young: This might be the closest tournament at home for Donald Young but he hasn't made use of that in the past with his First Round win being only his second ever win in the tournament. He is the favourite to move through to the Quarter Final, but Tim Smyczek will have something to say about that.

Smyczek had to come from a set down to beat Tiago Monteiro in the last Round, but the American did say he was feeling good about his game. He has not been in the best form of late and Smyczek has taken two heavy losses in Washington and Toronto before heading to Atlanta in a field in which he can make hay if building up some steam.

There won't be anything that the other player has not seen before with this being the sixteenth time that Young and Smyczek will face one another. Eight of the previous fifteen have been won by Young, although it is Smyczek that has won four in a row including in both matches played in 2016 and I can see this one being another tight match between them.

That makes this number of games appealing at odds against especially when you consider it is Smyczek who has been getting the better of their recent matches. Even though Young has been in better form of the two players in recent weeks, none of his three wins on the hard courts would have seen him cover this number. Add in the poor record in Atlanta overall and Smyczek can turn this into a competitive match and I will take the games.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: This has not been a productive time of the season as John Isner would have been hoping, but he can begin to turn things back around if he can win the title in Atlanta. He has won the title here in each of the last three seasons and Isner is looking to make it four in a row as he gets his tournament up and running against Adrian Mannarino.

Backing Isner to cover this number has not been productive for me over the last couple of weeks on the hard courts, but he has had his chances to break serve early enough to get into a position to cover. Isner created plenty of chances against the Adrian Mannarino serve when these players met in Indian Wells back in March and I think he will have the majority of chances in this one too.

It does have to be said that Isner has covered this number in two of his five wins over Mannarino and the latter can have a dangerous lefty serve which needs to be respected. However it does have to be said that the Frenchman has struggled on the hard court so far this summer and he will be under immense scoreboard pressure against Isner.

There is no doubting it is a big number when you consider the limited return game Isner possesses, but he has created seventeen break points in the last two matches against the Frenchman. If Isner can take his chances better than he did in his defeat to Ryan Harrison in Toronto last week, I do think he is capable of recording a 64, 64 win in this one.


Taylor Fritz - 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: There has been a lack of real American threats in the mens draws of recent tennis seasons ever since Andy Roddick retired and the likes of Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey and John Isner failed to fill that gap as effectively as fans would have liked. Now a new generation of American players are moving onto the Tour with some of those featuring here in Atlanta.

The leading name has to be Taylor Fritz who had a strong Junior career and has made a solid start to life on the ATP Tour through 2016. There is nothing wrong with having a losing record on the Tour in your first year and Fritz can say he has already pushed the likes of Roger Federer in matches and he has reached the Final in a tournament in Memphis.

The hard courts will be his favoured surface which is no surprise considering the nation of his birth and Fritz should be looking at Atlanta as a big chance to secure top Ranking points in what is a weak field compared to what he will see the rest of the summer.

Fritz had an easy win in the First Round, but it will be tougher against Bjorn Fratangelo although he hasn't been able to turn into a consistent performer at this level. While Fratangelo had a solid win on Tuesday evening, he has not had the best set of results on the hard courts this summer and has had a couple of poor losses in that time including last week against Andrew Whittington.

Both players will rely on their serve to put them in a position to win this match, but I think Fritz has the edge when it comes to the returning game. That should provide him the difference maker in the big moments of the match and I like the younger player to move through to the Quarter Final behind a 64, 64 win.


Irina-Camelia Begu - 3.5 games v Nao Hibino: The third Quarter Final in Florianopolis on Wednesday will be played between Irina-Camelia Begu and Nao Hibino and I do think the former is perhaps not rated as strongly as I thought she would be.

It is Begu who has had the tougher run through the weak draw having dropped the first set she played in Brazil, but she has bounced back by winning her next four sets comprehensively. There have been plenty of early losses on the hard courts for an inconsistent player like Begu, but the difference has been clear once she gets a couple of wins in an event under her belt as she uses the momentum very well.

Begu could not have asked for a better Quarter Final against an opponent who has struggled at this level through the season. Take away the two wins Hibino has had earlier this week and she would be 5-9 on the hard courts this season while her defeats tend to be one sided and that is a concern for the young Japanese player.

Looking back through her hard court losses, Hibino would have come within this number once in her last twenty-two hard court defeats. Hibino's serve is vulnerable and Begu should have the edge off the ground which is likely to lead to a 63, 64 kind of win for the higher Ranked player and a move through to the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Reilly Opelka + 3.5 Games @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Smyczek + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 3rd)

It was a big week for Rafael Nadal who earned a morale boosting title in Hamburg but I still think he is far short of his best and unlikely to make a big impact over the next six weeks which will culminate with the US Open.

The serve continues to look vulnerable and Nadal's movement is still not up to his very best, while the depth on his shots are lacking the consistency that took him to the top of the men's game. Nadal is still far short of what Novak Djokovic has been producing, but it is clear that the Spaniard has some big goals for the rest of the season including reaching the ATP Tour Finals in London.

Nadal has spoken about that all week in Hamburg and the 500 points he earned will be very important for him and I think he is on course to finish in the top eight of the Singles Race despite his World Ranking dropping to Number 10.

He will need to try and take the momentum of the title win this week into the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters which begin next week for two weeks and Nadal can hope for a couple of strong showings to take into the US Open. However, there is still some road to tread before Nadal is able to say he is back to his best and the hard work will continue for him despite the clear emotion he displayed after winning the title in Hamburg.


John Isner won the title in Atlanta for the third time in a row, but the other big news in my opinion was the second title in a row for Dominic Thiem. He was an impressive winner over David Goffin and two titles in back to back weeks has to be applauded.

Thiem has shown he is perhaps ready for another move up the World Rankings and goes for a third consecutive title in Kitzbuhel this week before heading to North America. I am a big fan of Thiem so it is very good to see him beginning to pick up titles and show plenty of consistency and I hope he can build on it heading into the final Grand Slam of the season.


Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Two clay court players who might see this as their last big chance to put up some big Ranking points will meet in the First Round at Kitzbuhel. I would imagine both Federico Delbonis and Pablo Carreno Busta would have been disappointed with their summer clay court showings over the last couple of weeks, but both are also comfortable on the clay and will be expectant for more.

For me the edge goes to Delbonis in this match as he has performed better on the clay courts at the main Tour level as well as on the Challenger circuit than Carreno Busta. I believe his left handed serve can give Carreno Busta something to think about and the Argentinian has won the two previous matches between them.

Some will point out that Carreno Busta has won a title on the Challenger Tour more recently than Delbonis, while his win over Robin Haase last week is a higher profile win that anything his opponent has produced over the last two events. However, Delbonis has had the more difficult draws early in an event so I am not reading too much into that.

It will likely be tight and Carreno Busta is capable of producing a strong set of games as he did in this three set loss to Dominic Thiem last week. But I do think Delbonis can come through in three tight sets and the last seven losses Carreno Busta has suffered on the clay courts in a main Tour event has seen him fail to get within this number.


Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: Any time a player comes through the qualifiers, I have admitted that they can be dangerous with a familiarity with the conditions that perhaps their opponent does not have. That might be the only reason that Rogerio Dutra Silva has the chance for the upset over Santiago Giraldo, but the latter was playing well last week and I do think he will find a way through to the Second Round.

Santiago Giraldo decided to miss his home tournament in Bogota this year in a bid to play three European tournaments on the clay courts. The last two have perhaps not been as effective as he would have liked, but he did reach the Quarter Finals last week and that is some decent form to take into Kitzbuhel.

He will need to be at his best both mentally and physically to see off Rogerio Dutra Silva who has won plenty of matches on the Challenger Tour on this surface. The Brazilian has beaten Benoit Paire on the clay and pushed the likes of Federico Delbonis and Pablo Carreno Busta in matches too, but I think Giraldo has the power to push Dutra Silva onto the back foot.

There are vulnerabilities in the Dutra Silva game and Giraldo did crush him in Houston when they met earlier this season for the loss of four games. Dutra Silva had a couple of tough it out wins in the qualifiers and may be worn down by Giraldo in a 64, 64 win for the Colombian.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 14-10, + 4.96 Units (48 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Season 2015: + 15.77 Units (1226 Units Staked, + 1.27% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (August 3rd)

The draw for the Montreal Masters was made on Friday and all of the top players are going to be in Canada, except the notable absence of Roger Federer. He has been complaining about a back issue following his couple of tournaments in Europe in July, but it is probably a decision made with the knowledge that he has a lot more points to defend in Cincinnati having missed the Canadian Masters last year due to his participation at the Olympics.

I'll have a full preview of the coming tournaments either on Saturday evening, or more likely on Sunday, as the Tour gets set for the run towards the US Open.

The Final at Kitzbuhel will be taking place on Saturday this week while the rest of the tournaments this week will have reached the Semi Final stage.


Marcel Granollers + 2.5 games v Juan Monaco: Anyone who followed the outright picks earlier this week would have Juan Monaco in the bag to win this tournament at a decent price and the Argentine is favoured to win this Final, although I certainly don't think it will be easy.

When you look at how these two players match up against one another, you certainly notice that Marcel Granollers has the more effective serve and can certainly pick up the cheaper points while Monaco has to work that much harder to hold on to serve.

We have also seen more lapses in form from Monaco of the two players this week although 2.5 games has proven not to be a terrible burden to cover for players, especially when one players loses heart in a match.

However, even with that in mind, I just have a feeling that this is going to be decided in three close sets and there is also a slight chance that Monaco gives up his set with a 62/63 score that will make this spread look a lot healthier during the course of the match. Granollers is certainly capable of pushing Monaco in this match and he can find a way to make this a real match and I believe the Spaniard does have a real chance of even causing the shock and winning the title here.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: Dmitry Tursunov really struggled with his second serve in his Quarter Final win yesterday and there were also signs that this long week is beginning to take a toll on him physically. He won't be able to be so generous with his double faults, which totalled at 13 yesterday, if he is to beat John Isner in this Semi Final.

After winning in Atlanta last week, Isner has shown little sign that he is feeling all the tennis he has played in the last couple of weeks and he was serving huge stuff in his win over Marcos Baghdatis yesterday. It was probably the best performance the big man has put in in the last couple of weeks as he found a way to create chances on the Cypriot's serve, although he was helped by a poor first serve percentage Baghdatis had.

The scoreboard pressure could be the biggest thing for Tursunov to overcome if Isner serves as well as he did yesterday. I don't really think Tursunov is the best return of serve and his own first serve percentage can be a little too low and will give Isner the chance to attack the ball.

If Tursunov is also gift wrapping points with double faults, it will only take a couple of unforced errors for Isner to take control of the match and I think the American reaches his second Final on the hard courts in succession with a 76, 64 win.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Tommy Haas: When I wrote my outright preview of the tournaments this week, I picked Tommy Haas to come through the top half of the draw with the feeling that Juan Martin Del Potro could possibly be caught cold early in the draw.

However, the big man, and favourite to win Washington for a third time, has come through the draw and he has totally dominated Haas in the past and is playing to a level which makes it tough to see any other kind of result in this one.

Del Potro has won all four matches they have played in the past, winning all eight sets they have played and only two of those sets has seen Haas win at least 4 games. It is understandable that Del Potro has been dominant in the match up as he does almost everything, bar volleying, better than Haas and has the consistency and power to overwhelm him.

Tommy Haas hasn't been in great form this week but has shown some heart in coming through tough battles to reach this Semi Final, but this looks a level too much, especially with the way Del Potro has played. I wouldn't be surprised if there is yet another set where the World Number 7 grabs a double break of serve before winning it and thus helping himself to a cover en route to the Final.


Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Virginie Razzano beat Petra Kvitova in a long three set match yesterday and it will be interesting to see how she responds physically to the battle she went through to reach the Semi Final. It doesn't help that she is playing Sam Stosur, a player very comfortable on the hard courts of North America and one that can put pressure on her opponent with a strong serve.

Stosur is having a good week so far and her surprise win over Agnieszka Radwanska yesterday makes her the favourite to reach the Final. I do think she will be the one pushing all the tennis in this one as her serve can be very effective on these courts, while Razzano is a little hit and miss behind her own.

The biggest issue could be whether Razzano has recovered from her win over Kvitova with this match starting a little under 24 hours after she came through to the Semi Final- physically, Razzano has struggled for some time and that could be an issue against a player she has never beaten. I can see this being close for a set, but losing that could see Razzano lose some heart and belief and lead to a Stosur 75, 62 win.


MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-15, - 6.24 Units (52 Units Staked, - 12% Yield)

Tennis Picks August 3rd (London Olympics Day 7 and Washington)

We have reached the Semi Finals of the Olympic Games meaning the winners will now be guaranteed a Medal from the Games. I am also still in a solid position of having my two main picks from the outrights still in the competition, although both are going to need to win a couple of tough matches if they are to win the tournament.

Roger Federer meets Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow and is now just two matches away from fulfilling his dream of winning the Gold Medal and completing his career 'Golden Slam'.

In the Women's draw, Serena Williams remains the big favourite, but she meets Victoria Azarenka and is likely going to have to beat Maria Sharapova in the Final if she is to replicate her elder sister Venus and win the Gold Medal in the singles event.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro came awful close to beating Roger Federer for the first time in six meetings when he led the Swiss man by 2 sets to love at the French Open a couple of months ago, but he failed to get the job done and has now lost all five matches against Federer in 2012.

The grass courts should favour the Federer game even more and I think he has the mental edge in this match and that is why I believe he will likely earn a break in each set to cover the spread.

Del Potro has quietly moved through the draw this week, but grass is not his favourite surface and he is still to beat one of the top guys since coming back from his injury that ruled him out for around a year back in 2010.

Since beating Federer in London at the End of Year Championships in 2009, Del Potro has been comfortably beaten by the World Number 1 in four of their six matches. That makes it tough mentally for him, especially on the grass courts, and I wouldn't be surprised if Federer is a 6-3, 6-4 winner.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams looks the pick of the Women still in this tournament and she has been serving wonderfully well this week and I think that will make the difference, again, when she plays Victoria Azarenka in this Semi Final.

I heard Virginia Wade said something along the lines of 'Azarenka is a lot better than Serena when it comes to playing off the ground' but I think she is one of the worst 'experts' out there and clearly watches around five minutes of tennis per year.

Anyone who has seen their two matches this year and their two matches last year will know that Serena has looked the dominant player in most aspects and has been the player dictating the points with her power.

Williams also looks the more likely to break serve and I think she is going to win with a little more room to spare than she did at Wimbledon last month. On that occasion, Serena would have covered this spread but got a little nervous before coming through 6-3, 7-6 to reach the Final.

The previous three matches shows that Serena has more joy when it comes to breaking serve and she has won all of those comfortably, while Williams also recorded a 6-2, 6-3 win over Azarenka here at Wimbledon in 2009.

With the way Williams is playing at the moment and the confidence she is displaying, I think she wins this one 6-3, 6-4 and will be a little less nervous when she approaches the winning line than when she got to that stage at Wimbledon last month and that should enable the cover.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.60 Units (29 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks August 3rd Washington and San Diego

I couldn't help but feel a little disappointed in following the David Nalbandian loss to James Blake last night- Nalbandian was my favourite player in the early part of the last decade and one that I felt has not quite reached the heights that his talent has deserved, either through injury or not quite finishing the job at key times.

His biggest moment came in 2005 when he overturned a 2 set deficit against Roger Federer in the ATP End of Year Championships, a remarkable feat when considering where Federer was in his career.

Nalbandian remains the best player I have seen in my lifetime that failed to win a Grand Slam, which is a real disappointment considering how close he came in a couple of different tournaments.

He should have won the US Open in 2003 when leading Andy Roddick 2-0 in the Semi Final before the American fought through and went on to win his only Grand Slam title.

Nalbandian was also a Finalist at Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps a little too early in his career at that time,  and in 2004 he was the big favourite to beat Gaston Gaudio in the Semi Final at the French Open before losing to the eventual winner.

Time looks to have passed Nalbandian by when it comes to a singles Grand Slam win, but I will be cheering on Argentina in the Davis Cup and hope he has one more big achievement left in him. Twice he has helped lead Argentina to the Final, but this year he will have the additional support of Juan Martin Del Potro.

He still remains an exceptional player to watch and I have been fortunate to see him in action live on a couple of occasions this year- hopefully he will be back in the UK for tournaments next season too.

Now on to the Picks:

Double; Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik and Jurgen Melzer vs Donald Young: There is a lot of choice today from the ATP tournament in Washington, but there were too many question marks for me to make too many picks.

This is one double I picked out from the coupon which I feel should come in- Radek Stepanek was serving very well in his 1st Round win over Philipp Petzschner and perhaps should have won the match in straight sets and he faces a player that has only returned to the tour in recent months and comes into the tournament as a 'Lucky Loser'.

Wayne Odesnik has recently won a Challenger event on the hard courts but was beaten in straight sets by Rajeev Ram in the qualifying here and Stepanek represents a significant step up of recent competition.

Stepanek is coming to the end of his career but he remains competitive and has had a good time on the hard courts in previous years. He also holds a winning record over Odesnik in the head to head and I think his chances have been underestimated by the layers.

Jurgen Melzer has not had a great season following last years exploits and he also had the additional problem of having to move from the clay to the hard courts. These first matches on a new surface can be tough, but I think Melzer can take down the underachieving Donald Young.

Young took advantage of an overmatched opponent in the 1st Round, but recent defeats to Michael Russell and Alex Bogdanovic do not really inspire confidence in him.

Melzer has also won both previous meetings with Young, one of those on a hard court, and I think the Austrian will be too strong here.


Ryan Harrison vs Victor Troicki: Ryan Harrison has played a lot of tennis, with success, in the last couple of weeks and was forced to go the distance in beating Mischa Zverev yesterday. However, he plays an opponent that has only played a couple of Davis Cup ties since Wimbledon and he could catch him cold.

Troicki is having a good season and it took Novak Djokovic to stop his runs at Miami and Indian Wells earlier this year. He didn't have a great Summer Swing here last year and was beaten in this Round in Washington when falling to Mardy Fish.

Harrison has not beaten someone of the level of Troicki over the last couple of weeks, but I will have a small interest that he can cause a surprise against an undercooked opponent.


Sofia Arvidsson vs Alberta Brianti: This is a pick for the minimum stakes but I think the wrong player has been set as the underdog in the match.

I think Alberta Brianti has been set as the favourite after she beat Flavia Pennetta in the last Round, but I actually think Sofia Arvidsson has the better hard court pedigree.

Brianti has lost matches against Sophie Ferguson, Heather Watson and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn on the hard courts this year and she was beaten in the 1st Round of a Challenger tournament in the Bronx last year, a tournament in which her opponent reached the Final.

Arvidsson has won both previous matches against Brianti in straight sets, and that includes a win on the hard courts in Miami last year.

Arvidsson is not someone to back with any kind of certainty but, as I said above, I think she should be the favourite in this match.


MY PICKS: Double; Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sofia Arvidsson @ 2.18 Pinnacle (1 Unit)




WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 2.5 Units