The Olympic Games are over, as far as the tennis players are concerned anyway, and everyone will be moving to Canada in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning in a little over three weeks from today.
Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.
Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.
I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.
I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.
However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.
In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.
What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.
Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.
I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.
Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.
My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.
The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.
Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.
No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.
Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.
Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.
In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.
He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.
How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.
He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.
If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.
Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)
Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)
Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)
Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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Showing posts with label London Olympics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label London Olympics. Show all posts
Sunday, 5 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 5th (London Olympics Day 9 and Washington)
There was absolutely no surprise in my mind when Serena Williams beat Maria Sharapova to take home the Gold Medal along with the Wimbledon title and she must now be the huge favourite to win the final Grand Slam of the year at the US Open.
I was surprised that Williams was able to win so comfortably as Sharapova was blown off the court and I do think Williams is the real Number 1 in Women's tennis. I don't think she will be able to take that Ranking spot any time before the US Open, but at least Williams' ranking means the top players won't have to face her before the Semi Finals at the earliest unlike twelve months ago when she came in as a dangerous floater in the draw.
The other big news in the tennis World is the fact that Roger Federer has pulled out of the Masters tournament in Toronto which begins on Monday- that means there is a chance that he may drop the World Number 1 Ranking, but it is unlikely and he should be back in action at Cincinnati. Federer stated too much tennis on the schedule, including the London Olympics, and I don't think it is a massive surprise to the organisers in Toronto that this has happened as they had already made changes to the tournament to ensure the top 16 all receive First Round byes.
Rafael Nadal is another player that won't be at the event having pulled out with the injury that saw him miss the Olympic Games- that is more worrying as I am beginning to have real doubts about whether the Spaniard plays in the final Grand Slam of the season at Flushing Meadows and perhaps will then think about shutting down for the rest of the season including missing the End of Year Championships in London.
Nadal is in real danger of dropping further in the Rankings with Andy Murray playing as well as anyone at the moment and fears are once again prominent that his knees just won't cope with the demands of top level tennis unless he makes serious changes to the way he works his schedule during the clay court swing.
I guess we can only sit and wait on the Spaniard at the moment and see whether he takes his place in the draw in Cincinnati which will begin a week on Monday and is the last real chance for the top players to get some hard court practice ahead of the US Open.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: I might be missing the point here, but Juan Martin Del Potro has to be mentally and physically exhausted after his exploits in the Semi Final and I think that will cost him his chance of winning a Medal from this Olympic Games.
Del Potro put in so much in his loss to Roger Federer which lasted well over four hours that it is hard to see how he will have the energy in this one against a player in Novak Djokovic that he trails 1-4 in the head to head.
Granted Del Potro won their last meeting when Djokovic was forced to retire with an injury in a Davis Cup tie just days after winning the US Open title last year, but the Serb had lost just one of the eleven previous sets they had competed against one another.
I will say that Djokovic has not played that well this week and has not looked himself since losing at the French Open while the whole of 2012 has been tough to replicate the form he showed last year. However, I just think he is the fresher of the two players and Djokovic will be desperate for a Medal for his country and I think he is going to be a little too good for Del Potro in this one.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-9, + 2.32 Units (37 Units Staked)
I was surprised that Williams was able to win so comfortably as Sharapova was blown off the court and I do think Williams is the real Number 1 in Women's tennis. I don't think she will be able to take that Ranking spot any time before the US Open, but at least Williams' ranking means the top players won't have to face her before the Semi Finals at the earliest unlike twelve months ago when she came in as a dangerous floater in the draw.
The other big news in the tennis World is the fact that Roger Federer has pulled out of the Masters tournament in Toronto which begins on Monday- that means there is a chance that he may drop the World Number 1 Ranking, but it is unlikely and he should be back in action at Cincinnati. Federer stated too much tennis on the schedule, including the London Olympics, and I don't think it is a massive surprise to the organisers in Toronto that this has happened as they had already made changes to the tournament to ensure the top 16 all receive First Round byes.
Rafael Nadal is another player that won't be at the event having pulled out with the injury that saw him miss the Olympic Games- that is more worrying as I am beginning to have real doubts about whether the Spaniard plays in the final Grand Slam of the season at Flushing Meadows and perhaps will then think about shutting down for the rest of the season including missing the End of Year Championships in London.
Nadal is in real danger of dropping further in the Rankings with Andy Murray playing as well as anyone at the moment and fears are once again prominent that his knees just won't cope with the demands of top level tennis unless he makes serious changes to the way he works his schedule during the clay court swing.
I guess we can only sit and wait on the Spaniard at the moment and see whether he takes his place in the draw in Cincinnati which will begin a week on Monday and is the last real chance for the top players to get some hard court practice ahead of the US Open.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: I might be missing the point here, but Juan Martin Del Potro has to be mentally and physically exhausted after his exploits in the Semi Final and I think that will cost him his chance of winning a Medal from this Olympic Games.
Del Potro put in so much in his loss to Roger Federer which lasted well over four hours that it is hard to see how he will have the energy in this one against a player in Novak Djokovic that he trails 1-4 in the head to head.
Granted Del Potro won their last meeting when Djokovic was forced to retire with an injury in a Davis Cup tie just days after winning the US Open title last year, but the Serb had lost just one of the eleven previous sets they had competed against one another.
I will say that Djokovic has not played that well this week and has not looked himself since losing at the French Open while the whole of 2012 has been tough to replicate the form he showed last year. However, I just think he is the fresher of the two players and Djokovic will be desperate for a Medal for his country and I think he is going to be a little too good for Del Potro in this one.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-9, + 2.32 Units (37 Units Staked)
Saturday, 4 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 4th (London Olympics Day 8 Picks and Washington)
There are just a couple of days left at the London Olympics for these tennis stars and on Saturday we get the Women's Medals settled with two matches.
None of the players will have much time to enjoy their achievements this week as they head to Montreal for a tournament beginning on Monday in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning at the end of the month.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Maria Kirilenko: There wasn't a lot Victoria Azarenka could do against the form Serena Williams displayed in the Semi Final on Friday, but I expect her to end her tournament with a Bronze Medal consolation (she is also going well in the Mixed Doubles where a Gold Medal is a distinct possibility).
Maria Kirilenko is not an easy test on the grass courts, but she too was dismantled in her Semi Final and I think she may find it tough against someone like Azarenka who is normally very consistent.
I think Azarenka has the edge in the rallies and she has the consistency to break down the Kirilenko game. It is no surprise that Azarenka has won the last two matches between the two, even if they were back in 2010, and I think the Belarusian has improved as a player since then and is going to record another win in this one.
This could be tight when it comes to covering this spread, but I wouldn't be surprised if Azarenka is a 6-4, 6-2 winner and takes the Bronze Medal.
Maria Sharapova + 4.5 games v Serena Williams: I already backed Serena Williams to win this tournament in the outright market and I think the American has shown too much over the course of the week to miss out on the Gold Medal now.
In saying that, I still think this spread looks slightly high in a match where we could potentially see a deciding set as well as the chance of a tie-break. Maria Sharapova has also been playing well this week and won't want to roll over as Williams' other opponents have and she can serve well enough to at least keep the score respectable.
However, Serena has a dominating record against Sharapova, winning 8 of their 10 matches including a thumping win in Madrid earlier this season which is the last of a run of 7 consecutive wins against the Russian.
In fact, Williams would have covered this spread in 5 of their last 6 matches, the exception coming on the grass courts here at Wimbledon in 2010 when she won 7-6, 6-4.
That means they are 1-1 on the grass courts in their career, with Williams failing to cover the spread in both of those and I wouldn't be surprised if Serena is a 6-3, 7-6 winner in the Final to take home the Gold Medal and make herself the big favourite to win the final Grand Slam of the season at Flushing Meadows.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 1.86 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova + 4.5 games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 2.60 Units (33 Units Staked)
None of the players will have much time to enjoy their achievements this week as they head to Montreal for a tournament beginning on Monday in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning at the end of the month.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Maria Kirilenko: There wasn't a lot Victoria Azarenka could do against the form Serena Williams displayed in the Semi Final on Friday, but I expect her to end her tournament with a Bronze Medal consolation (she is also going well in the Mixed Doubles where a Gold Medal is a distinct possibility).
Maria Kirilenko is not an easy test on the grass courts, but she too was dismantled in her Semi Final and I think she may find it tough against someone like Azarenka who is normally very consistent.
I think Azarenka has the edge in the rallies and she has the consistency to break down the Kirilenko game. It is no surprise that Azarenka has won the last two matches between the two, even if they were back in 2010, and I think the Belarusian has improved as a player since then and is going to record another win in this one.
This could be tight when it comes to covering this spread, but I wouldn't be surprised if Azarenka is a 6-4, 6-2 winner and takes the Bronze Medal.
Maria Sharapova + 4.5 games v Serena Williams: I already backed Serena Williams to win this tournament in the outright market and I think the American has shown too much over the course of the week to miss out on the Gold Medal now.
In saying that, I still think this spread looks slightly high in a match where we could potentially see a deciding set as well as the chance of a tie-break. Maria Sharapova has also been playing well this week and won't want to roll over as Williams' other opponents have and she can serve well enough to at least keep the score respectable.
However, Serena has a dominating record against Sharapova, winning 8 of their 10 matches including a thumping win in Madrid earlier this season which is the last of a run of 7 consecutive wins against the Russian.
In fact, Williams would have covered this spread in 5 of their last 6 matches, the exception coming on the grass courts here at Wimbledon in 2010 when she won 7-6, 6-4.
That means they are 1-1 on the grass courts in their career, with Williams failing to cover the spread in both of those and I wouldn't be surprised if Serena is a 6-3, 7-6 winner in the Final to take home the Gold Medal and make herself the big favourite to win the final Grand Slam of the season at Flushing Meadows.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 1.86 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova + 4.5 games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 2.60 Units (33 Units Staked)
Friday, 3 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 3rd (London Olympics Day 7 and Washington)
We have reached the Semi Finals of the Olympic Games meaning the winners will now be guaranteed a Medal from the Games. I am also still in a solid position of having my two main picks from the outrights still in the competition, although both are going to need to win a couple of tough matches if they are to win the tournament.
Roger Federer meets Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow and is now just two matches away from fulfilling his dream of winning the Gold Medal and completing his career 'Golden Slam'.
In the Women's draw, Serena Williams remains the big favourite, but she meets Victoria Azarenka and is likely going to have to beat Maria Sharapova in the Final if she is to replicate her elder sister Venus and win the Gold Medal in the singles event.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro came awful close to beating Roger Federer for the first time in six meetings when he led the Swiss man by 2 sets to love at the French Open a couple of months ago, but he failed to get the job done and has now lost all five matches against Federer in 2012.
The grass courts should favour the Federer game even more and I think he has the mental edge in this match and that is why I believe he will likely earn a break in each set to cover the spread.
Del Potro has quietly moved through the draw this week, but grass is not his favourite surface and he is still to beat one of the top guys since coming back from his injury that ruled him out for around a year back in 2010.
Since beating Federer in London at the End of Year Championships in 2009, Del Potro has been comfortably beaten by the World Number 1 in four of their six matches. That makes it tough mentally for him, especially on the grass courts, and I wouldn't be surprised if Federer is a 6-3, 6-4 winner.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams looks the pick of the Women still in this tournament and she has been serving wonderfully well this week and I think that will make the difference, again, when she plays Victoria Azarenka in this Semi Final.
I heard Virginia Wade said something along the lines of 'Azarenka is a lot better than Serena when it comes to playing off the ground' but I think she is one of the worst 'experts' out there and clearly watches around five minutes of tennis per year.
Anyone who has seen their two matches this year and their two matches last year will know that Serena has looked the dominant player in most aspects and has been the player dictating the points with her power.
Williams also looks the more likely to break serve and I think she is going to win with a little more room to spare than she did at Wimbledon last month. On that occasion, Serena would have covered this spread but got a little nervous before coming through 6-3, 7-6 to reach the Final.
The previous three matches shows that Serena has more joy when it comes to breaking serve and she has won all of those comfortably, while Williams also recorded a 6-2, 6-3 win over Azarenka here at Wimbledon in 2009.
With the way Williams is playing at the moment and the confidence she is displaying, I think she wins this one 6-3, 6-4 and will be a little less nervous when she approaches the winning line than when she got to that stage at Wimbledon last month and that should enable the cover.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.60 Units (29 Units Staked)
Roger Federer meets Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow and is now just two matches away from fulfilling his dream of winning the Gold Medal and completing his career 'Golden Slam'.
In the Women's draw, Serena Williams remains the big favourite, but she meets Victoria Azarenka and is likely going to have to beat Maria Sharapova in the Final if she is to replicate her elder sister Venus and win the Gold Medal in the singles event.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro came awful close to beating Roger Federer for the first time in six meetings when he led the Swiss man by 2 sets to love at the French Open a couple of months ago, but he failed to get the job done and has now lost all five matches against Federer in 2012.
The grass courts should favour the Federer game even more and I think he has the mental edge in this match and that is why I believe he will likely earn a break in each set to cover the spread.
Del Potro has quietly moved through the draw this week, but grass is not his favourite surface and he is still to beat one of the top guys since coming back from his injury that ruled him out for around a year back in 2010.
Since beating Federer in London at the End of Year Championships in 2009, Del Potro has been comfortably beaten by the World Number 1 in four of their six matches. That makes it tough mentally for him, especially on the grass courts, and I wouldn't be surprised if Federer is a 6-3, 6-4 winner.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams looks the pick of the Women still in this tournament and she has been serving wonderfully well this week and I think that will make the difference, again, when she plays Victoria Azarenka in this Semi Final.
I heard Virginia Wade said something along the lines of 'Azarenka is a lot better than Serena when it comes to playing off the ground' but I think she is one of the worst 'experts' out there and clearly watches around five minutes of tennis per year.
Anyone who has seen their two matches this year and their two matches last year will know that Serena has looked the dominant player in most aspects and has been the player dictating the points with her power.
Williams also looks the more likely to break serve and I think she is going to win with a little more room to spare than she did at Wimbledon last month. On that occasion, Serena would have covered this spread but got a little nervous before coming through 6-3, 7-6 to reach the Final.
The previous three matches shows that Serena has more joy when it comes to breaking serve and she has won all of those comfortably, while Williams also recorded a 6-2, 6-3 win over Azarenka here at Wimbledon in 2009.
With the way Williams is playing at the moment and the confidence she is displaying, I think she wins this one 6-3, 6-4 and will be a little less nervous when she approaches the winning line than when she got to that stage at Wimbledon last month and that should enable the cover.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.60 Units (29 Units Staked)
Thursday, 2 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 2nd (London Olympics Day 6 and Washington)
I've had a pretty rough couple of days as I received some bad personal news, so I haven't seen as much of the tennis as I would have normally.
That isn't to say I haven't followed some of the results as they come through, and I was heavily disappointed that yesterday didn't produce a winning record despite looking good for a little while.
I was most disappointed with Marcos Baghdatis' collapse against Andy Murray- he got himself into a pretty strong position at 6-4, 1-1, but then decided to stop playing... I can only guess at what happened as I didn't see any of that match, but the fact of the matter is he lost seven straight games and gave the cover no chance despite getting into a decider as I imagined.
Getting almost a sets worth of games looked like it couldn't miss if the match did go into a final set, yet it was that collapse in the middle of the match that left the Cypriot short of the cover.
While that was largely irritating, the fact that Serena Williams, Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova have all made the Quarter Finals is something to keep me in a positive frame of mind. The first two players I mentioned remain strong favourites to pick up the Gold Medal, but both face awkward Quarter Finals, while Kvitova has been a little inconsistent so far this week.
I guess it will all be made a lot clearer as this tournament quickly draws to a close and the players begin looking forward to the North American hard court swing leading up to the US Open.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: I have a feeling this pick may just need a little bit of luck for it to come to pass, but I am sure the first set is going to end in a tie-break and so I will be hoping Roger Federer is serving first and so will likely need to break serve twice or more to cover this spread.
John Isner is one of those players that can be unplayable when he is on form with his serve and he has been playing well so far this week. He has proven his ability to push the best players on the Tour when he is serving well and I also think Roger Federer can sometimes struggle to find a rhythm when it comes to returning serve.
Federer does hold a 3-1 head to head against Isner and would have covered this spread in each of those wins, but I don't think the big American will come into this feeling any fear and he may just be able to push the World Number 1 enough to cover this spread.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Both of these players came through a tough test in their last match to reach this Quarter Final and both have already shown they are very comfortable on the grass courts having reached the Semi Finals at Wimbledon last month.
I think the difference between them will be that Victoria Azarenka is the better player and she is mentally in a much tougher place, while we saw signs of Angelique Kerber 'giving up' on a couple of occasions at Wimbledon and that attitude will not get the job done here.
Azarenka has had a couple of tough matches here this week, and she is playing a lot of tennis being involved in the mixed doubles as well as these singles, but I think she is going to be too consistent for Kerber who is having a good season.
Earlier this season, Azarenka won in straight sets at Indian Wells against Kerber and I think we could see something similar here.
Mardy Fish - 3.5 games v Richard Berankis: The biggest issue surrounds Mardy Fish's fitness, but he was a comfortable winner in his first game so his ankle injury must be doing better than it may have been from a couple of weeks ago.
I like his chances in this match if he is feeling better, despite the fact that Richard Berankis has had a decent hard court swing in the United States over the last couple of weeks.
However, Berankis reached the Final in LA last week and while that will give him confidence, it also means he has played a lot of tennis and that has the tendency of catching up with players that are not so used to going deep in tournaments on the Main Tour.
Berankis was crushed in the Final last week by Sam Querrey and won just 2 games in that match, but he should perform much better than that in this match. However, I still expect Mardy Fish to be too strong and can see the American recording a 6-3, 7-6 win to cover this spread.
MY PICKS: John Isner + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.08 Units (23 Units Staked)
That isn't to say I haven't followed some of the results as they come through, and I was heavily disappointed that yesterday didn't produce a winning record despite looking good for a little while.
I was most disappointed with Marcos Baghdatis' collapse against Andy Murray- he got himself into a pretty strong position at 6-4, 1-1, but then decided to stop playing... I can only guess at what happened as I didn't see any of that match, but the fact of the matter is he lost seven straight games and gave the cover no chance despite getting into a decider as I imagined.
Getting almost a sets worth of games looked like it couldn't miss if the match did go into a final set, yet it was that collapse in the middle of the match that left the Cypriot short of the cover.
While that was largely irritating, the fact that Serena Williams, Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova have all made the Quarter Finals is something to keep me in a positive frame of mind. The first two players I mentioned remain strong favourites to pick up the Gold Medal, but both face awkward Quarter Finals, while Kvitova has been a little inconsistent so far this week.
I guess it will all be made a lot clearer as this tournament quickly draws to a close and the players begin looking forward to the North American hard court swing leading up to the US Open.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: I have a feeling this pick may just need a little bit of luck for it to come to pass, but I am sure the first set is going to end in a tie-break and so I will be hoping Roger Federer is serving first and so will likely need to break serve twice or more to cover this spread.
John Isner is one of those players that can be unplayable when he is on form with his serve and he has been playing well so far this week. He has proven his ability to push the best players on the Tour when he is serving well and I also think Roger Federer can sometimes struggle to find a rhythm when it comes to returning serve.
Federer does hold a 3-1 head to head against Isner and would have covered this spread in each of those wins, but I don't think the big American will come into this feeling any fear and he may just be able to push the World Number 1 enough to cover this spread.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Both of these players came through a tough test in their last match to reach this Quarter Final and both have already shown they are very comfortable on the grass courts having reached the Semi Finals at Wimbledon last month.
I think the difference between them will be that Victoria Azarenka is the better player and she is mentally in a much tougher place, while we saw signs of Angelique Kerber 'giving up' on a couple of occasions at Wimbledon and that attitude will not get the job done here.
Azarenka has had a couple of tough matches here this week, and she is playing a lot of tennis being involved in the mixed doubles as well as these singles, but I think she is going to be too consistent for Kerber who is having a good season.
Earlier this season, Azarenka won in straight sets at Indian Wells against Kerber and I think we could see something similar here.
Mardy Fish - 3.5 games v Richard Berankis: The biggest issue surrounds Mardy Fish's fitness, but he was a comfortable winner in his first game so his ankle injury must be doing better than it may have been from a couple of weeks ago.
I like his chances in this match if he is feeling better, despite the fact that Richard Berankis has had a decent hard court swing in the United States over the last couple of weeks.
However, Berankis reached the Final in LA last week and while that will give him confidence, it also means he has played a lot of tennis and that has the tendency of catching up with players that are not so used to going deep in tournaments on the Main Tour.
Berankis was crushed in the Final last week by Sam Querrey and won just 2 games in that match, but he should perform much better than that in this match. However, I still expect Mardy Fish to be too strong and can see the American recording a 6-3, 7-6 win to cover this spread.
MY PICKS: John Isner + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.08 Units (23 Units Staked)
Wednesday, 1 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 1st (London Olympics Day 5 and Washington)
Sabine Lisicki + 4.5 games v Maria Sharapova: This is a rematch of one of the surprise results from the tournament at Wimbledon and I am a little surprised that Sabine Lisicki is given such a head start considering her form on the grass courts.
I don't like under-estimating Maria Sharapova, but Lisicki has the game that can cause her to feel a lot of pressure and has also overcome the mental burden of never having beaten the Russian in three previous meetings before their latest one.
Lisicki also earned a tough win in the last Round against Yaroslava Shvedova and should be confident having reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon the year after reaching the Semi Final.
Sharapova is also very comfortable on the grass courts and this match has all the makings of being a close one that could potentially need a deciding set to separate the players. In that case, taking the games at a little under odds against looks the call.
Feliciano Lopez v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is a pick made on the basis that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had an extremely long match yesterday that ended with a record breaking third set at the Olympic Games.
I just think Feliciano Lopez is being under-rated anyway considering his form on the grass courts in his career. He has posted wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Roddick over the last couple of season although I do have a concern with his form in recent weeks.
Still, there has to be a mental obstacle for Tsonga to get past in this match, while physically he has to be a little tired after his exploits yesterday.
Lopez has lost all three previous matches against Tsonga, but the long nature of the Frenchman's Second Round match makes me think it is definitely worth a small interest play and could give us a run for our money.
Marcos Baghdatis + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: As I said with the Sabine Lisicki pick, I think Marcos Baghdatis is being under-rated here considering how much trouble he gave Andy Murray in their match at Wimbledon, particularly in the first three sets.
He has Miles Maclagen in his corner so will have the inside information on Murray and Baghdatis is also very adept at playing on the grass courts despite having a couple of downward years on the Tour.
Generally these players do match up well against one another and that makes for close contests and, with that in mind, getting 4.5 games looks pretty big.
It wouldn't surprise me greatly if Baghdatis is able to take this into a decider and that may be enough for the cover to come in.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki + 4.5 games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Marcos Baghdatis + 4.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-6, - 1.92 Units (18 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 31 July 2012
Tennis Picks July 31st (London Olympics Day 4 and Washington)
As I wrote yesterday, I will be making picks from the tournament in Washington a bit later considering their order of play will not be out for a while and the markets need time to catch up.
The Olympic tournament in London has been going pretty smoothly for most of the top players, but it should begin heating up as the limit of 16 seeds means there are plenty of good matches to watch.
Serena Williams, Petra Kvitova and Roger Federer are also keeping my outright interests alive in the tournament following the exit of Tomas Berdych and all three look solid so far, although Kvitova has needed three sets to win both of her first two matches.
However, I am not so concerned with Serena Williams and Federer who moved through easily enough, although the challenges are going to get a lot better in the coming days.
Sabine Lisicki v Yaroslava Shvedova: This has been set as a pick 'em contest as Yaroslava Shvedova has been playing some very good tennis since the French Open and Sabine Lisicki can be a little frustrating to watch.
However, I think the German player probably favours grass more than any other surface and that should give her the belief that she can win this match.
Her serve can be effective and she just has to be careful that she doesn't make too many unforced errors, something that can be a problem in her game.
Shvedova has played some of her best tennis in her Singles career over the last couple of months, but this is as tough a test she would have faced. I really respect the fact that she pushed Serena Williams all the way in a three set loss at Wimbledon, and there is every chance this match also needs a decider.
However, I do believe Lisicki is going to be a little too good when it is all said and done and I will pick her to win this one.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Both of these players are very comfortable on the grass courts, but I just think Marcos Baghdatis is being under-rated in this one and is more than capable of winning at least a set and that could ensure that he covers the spread.
Baghdatis gave Andy Murray all sorts of problems when they met at Wimbledon last month, while Richard Gasquet was a disappointing loser to Florian Mayer.
The Cypriot is not really someone I would have high on a list of players I would trust to give their all if they were playing for my life, but I think he is strong enough to take at least a set even if he doesn't win the match, and that may be enough to see the cover come in.
Baghdatis has also won the only meeting between Gasquet and himself and I am going to look to him to keep this tight.
Jesse Levine v Marinko Matosevic: This is a close match but one where I think Jesse Levine will be a little too strong and is worth a small interest.
He is playing in front of a crowd that should be supporting him fully and he did record a straight sets win over Marinko Matosevic in Newport at the beginning of the month.
However, I think Matosevic has been set as the favourite because of the form he showed on Los Angeles last week where he reached the Semi Final, while Levine has not won a match on the hard courts so far this season (on the Main Tour).
Levine has won a couple of qualifying matches here to get to this stage so will be more than familiar with the conditions and that may give him an edge in this one.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jesse Levine @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-5, - 4.72 Units (13 Units Staked)
The Olympic tournament in London has been going pretty smoothly for most of the top players, but it should begin heating up as the limit of 16 seeds means there are plenty of good matches to watch.
Serena Williams, Petra Kvitova and Roger Federer are also keeping my outright interests alive in the tournament following the exit of Tomas Berdych and all three look solid so far, although Kvitova has needed three sets to win both of her first two matches.
However, I am not so concerned with Serena Williams and Federer who moved through easily enough, although the challenges are going to get a lot better in the coming days.
Sabine Lisicki v Yaroslava Shvedova: This has been set as a pick 'em contest as Yaroslava Shvedova has been playing some very good tennis since the French Open and Sabine Lisicki can be a little frustrating to watch.
However, I think the German player probably favours grass more than any other surface and that should give her the belief that she can win this match.
Her serve can be effective and she just has to be careful that she doesn't make too many unforced errors, something that can be a problem in her game.
Shvedova has played some of her best tennis in her Singles career over the last couple of months, but this is as tough a test she would have faced. I really respect the fact that she pushed Serena Williams all the way in a three set loss at Wimbledon, and there is every chance this match also needs a decider.
However, I do believe Lisicki is going to be a little too good when it is all said and done and I will pick her to win this one.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Both of these players are very comfortable on the grass courts, but I just think Marcos Baghdatis is being under-rated in this one and is more than capable of winning at least a set and that could ensure that he covers the spread.
Baghdatis gave Andy Murray all sorts of problems when they met at Wimbledon last month, while Richard Gasquet was a disappointing loser to Florian Mayer.
The Cypriot is not really someone I would have high on a list of players I would trust to give their all if they were playing for my life, but I think he is strong enough to take at least a set even if he doesn't win the match, and that may be enough to see the cover come in.
Baghdatis has also won the only meeting between Gasquet and himself and I am going to look to him to keep this tight.
Jesse Levine v Marinko Matosevic: This is a close match but one where I think Jesse Levine will be a little too strong and is worth a small interest.
He is playing in front of a crowd that should be supporting him fully and he did record a straight sets win over Marinko Matosevic in Newport at the beginning of the month.
However, I think Matosevic has been set as the favourite because of the form he showed on Los Angeles last week where he reached the Semi Final, while Levine has not won a match on the hard courts so far this season (on the Main Tour).
Levine has won a couple of qualifying matches here to get to this stage so will be more than familiar with the conditions and that may give him an edge in this one.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jesse Levine @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-5, - 4.72 Units (13 Units Staked)
Monday, 30 July 2012
Tennis Picks July 30th (London Olympics Day 3 and Washington)
The tournament in Washington, which is an ATP 500 event, will be beginning on Monday, but any picks from that event will be made tomorrow once all the markets are up.
Santiago Giraldo - 1.5 games v Steve Darcis: Steve Darcis caused the biggest surprise of First Round in the Olympics when he knocked out Tomas Berdych, my dark horse pick.
That may have seen his chances of winning this match being a little over-rated and I do like the Colombian, who was an impressive straight sets winner over Ryan Harrison in the First Round, to come through this one.
First off, Darcis may just have a let down performance after playing so effectively against Berdych and he is still the same player that was beaten in five sets by Guillermo Rufin in the First Round at Wimbledon and he failed to qualify for that Grand Slam last year.
Santiago Giraldo has also won his two previous meetings against Darcis, although he doesn't have the best grass court pedigree. However, Giraldo has a decent serve and a solid ground game and I think he is going to be a little too good for Darcis in this one.
Gilles Simon - 1.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Gilles Simon has perhaps been better known outside of tennis circles as the 'evil man who dared to suggest equal pay is stupid at Grand Slam level', but it shouldn't be forgotten that he is a former top 10 player.
To be honest, I think Simon's style is quite off-putting as he seems to prefer keeping the ball in play as long as possible and waiting for errors rather than putting the front foot forward and trying to outright win points.
He might still be too consistent for Grigor Dimitrov at this stage of their careers and he does hold a 3-0 head to head over 'Baby Federer' including a straight sets win over him in Nice earlier this season.
Simon also holds a win over Dimitrov on the grass courts and I think he is worth backing to move to 4-0 against the Bulgarian in this Second Round match.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: This is one of the matches taking place at the tournament in Washington and I like Jeremy Chardy to be too strong for his compatriot in the First Round match.
Chardy is moving up the Rankings after struggling last season and I think he has shown enough form in recent weeks to suggest he will be too good for Edouard Roger-Vasselin in this one. Roger-Vasselin also had to pull out with a stomach issue from the tournament in Gstaad a couple of weeks ago so he could also be a little rusty.
Roger-Vasselin does lead the head to head 2-1, but it was Chardy who won their last meeting. That also occurred on a hard court, the only meeting that has been played on a surface other than clay, and I think Chardy may be a little too good in this one too.
MY PICKS: Santiago Giraldo - 1.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 games @ 2.13 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 2.98 Units (7 Units Staked)
Santiago Giraldo - 1.5 games v Steve Darcis: Steve Darcis caused the biggest surprise of First Round in the Olympics when he knocked out Tomas Berdych, my dark horse pick.
That may have seen his chances of winning this match being a little over-rated and I do like the Colombian, who was an impressive straight sets winner over Ryan Harrison in the First Round, to come through this one.
First off, Darcis may just have a let down performance after playing so effectively against Berdych and he is still the same player that was beaten in five sets by Guillermo Rufin in the First Round at Wimbledon and he failed to qualify for that Grand Slam last year.
Santiago Giraldo has also won his two previous meetings against Darcis, although he doesn't have the best grass court pedigree. However, Giraldo has a decent serve and a solid ground game and I think he is going to be a little too good for Darcis in this one.
Gilles Simon - 1.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Gilles Simon has perhaps been better known outside of tennis circles as the 'evil man who dared to suggest equal pay is stupid at Grand Slam level', but it shouldn't be forgotten that he is a former top 10 player.
To be honest, I think Simon's style is quite off-putting as he seems to prefer keeping the ball in play as long as possible and waiting for errors rather than putting the front foot forward and trying to outright win points.
He might still be too consistent for Grigor Dimitrov at this stage of their careers and he does hold a 3-0 head to head over 'Baby Federer' including a straight sets win over him in Nice earlier this season.
Simon also holds a win over Dimitrov on the grass courts and I think he is worth backing to move to 4-0 against the Bulgarian in this Second Round match.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: This is one of the matches taking place at the tournament in Washington and I like Jeremy Chardy to be too strong for his compatriot in the First Round match.
Chardy is moving up the Rankings after struggling last season and I think he has shown enough form in recent weeks to suggest he will be too good for Edouard Roger-Vasselin in this one. Roger-Vasselin also had to pull out with a stomach issue from the tournament in Gstaad a couple of weeks ago so he could also be a little rusty.
Roger-Vasselin does lead the head to head 2-1, but it was Chardy who won their last meeting. That also occurred on a hard court, the only meeting that has been played on a surface other than clay, and I think Chardy may be a little too good in this one too.
MY PICKS: Santiago Giraldo - 1.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 games @ 2.13 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 2.98 Units (7 Units Staked)
Saturday, 28 July 2012
London Olympic Basketball Picks (July 29-August 12)
I am going to be using this one thread to collate the picks I make from the basketball at the Olympics in London.
First things first, I don't watch Women's basketball so I won't be making picks on a sport where I don't know anything about what is going on.
The second thing to point out is I won't try and look 'smart' by picking the United States to win the Gold Medal as even someone who has been living under a rock will be able to pick them as the winners.
July 29th
Brazil v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14596-Brazil-v-Australia.htm)
Great Britain v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14597-Great-Britain-v-Russia.htm)
July 31st
Great Britain v Brazil Pick: I didn't have time for full previews due to work commitments, but I do like Brazil to cover the spread in this game with Great Britain.
Great Britain were fairly comfortably beaten by Russia in their first game and only kept things as close as they did because of very solid production on the offensive boards- I don't think they will be able to have the same dominance in this one due to the Brazilian size and I would be surprised if they have half as many offensive boards as they did in the first game.
The shooting from the field was actually pretty poor and that is not going to see them keep things close against a Brazilian team that has plenty of scoring power and I expect they will win by closer to 20 points in this one.
France v Argentina Pick: Argentina were probably the most impressive winners in the first set of games (outside of the USA who were favoured by 24 points anyway) and I think they are going to be a little too good for a France team that has a few injuries to be concerned with.
With Tony Parker being 34, he can't be expected to log long minutes when games are played every other day and I think the French don't have the same depth as Argentina and that may be the difference in this game.
I think Argentina are probably the third best team in the tournament and I think they will be able to win this game and put themselves in a very strong position to qualify from the group, most likely behind the USA, but that alone should give them a good chance to get into the Medal contention.
August 2nd
France v Lithuania Pick: France surprised many people, including me, with their win over Argentina last time out and that puts them in a very strong position to finish behind the United States in Group A and avoid having to play them again until the Final at the earliest.
That can be almost all but guaranteed if they can win this game as they will have Nigeria and Tunisia left to play, two matches the French will expect to win.
Lithuania are actually ranked at Number 5 in the World Rankings, but they haven't played that well so far and so are considered the dogs in this one. However, I do believe they are a better team than they have shown and I would be surprised if they are blown out as badly as they were in the first game against Argentina.
I expect this to be a close contest, so I will take the points and hope Lithuania show off their real ability in this game.
Argentina v Tunisia Pick: Argentina were the team surprised by France in the last set of games and I think that means they will come out fired up to make a point against Tunisia who look the weakest team in this Group.
The Argentines still have to play the United States, but they will want to build confidence with remaining games against Nigeria and Tunisia also on slate. As one of the Medal favourites at the start of the tournament, anything less than a Bronze will not be acceptable, but that means they need to finish in the top three places and avoid a tough looking match against Spain, the most likely winner of Group B.
Tunisia look a little overmatched when it comes to talent, but I am surprised that they are only given half the points that they were against the United States and they look worth opposing in this one.
Spain v Great Britain: Spain look the best of the teams in Group B and I think the may just take advantage of a Great Britain team that has to be emotionally fragile after coming so close to upsetting Brazil in their last game.
With just a day of rest between games, Great Britain may also be considering reserving some energy for their final two games against Australia and China, especially if they fall into an early hole in this one. To qualify from the Group, I expect Great Britain will need to beat both Australia and China and there is a chance that they are looking ahead to those games with this one coming in a letdown spot.
I am a touch concerned that Spain themselves are potentially looking ahead to their final two games against Russia and Brazil which will decide the winner of the Group and the opportunity to avoid the United States until the Final at the earliest, but they will know they cannot take their eye off the ball here and will look to maintain momentum.
Russia beat Great Britain by 20 points and I think Spain are going to match that so will back them to cover the spread.
August 8th
I was absolutely fuming after missing two of my last three picks by a combined 3 points and couldn't believe the way my luck had landed so held off until the Quarter Finals where the urgency should be greater in a 'play hard or go home' setting.
Russia v Lithuania Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14611-Russia-v-Lithuania.htm)
France v Spain Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14612-France-v-Spain.htm)
United States v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14613-United-States-v-Australia.htm)
August 10th
I don't think I have ever been on a run of form where so many of the picks I have made have literally been beaten by so little... In fact, five of the picks that have fallen by the wayside have done by a combined 10 points and that is just bad luck and great work by the layers that have got the lines dead right.
With the way the Olympics have been, the layers have had the advantage in a competition like this, but it's the little things that have cost me- be that missed free throws once the cover looks certain to come in, meaningless buckets late or teams fouling into an against the spread loss, and there isn't a lot you can do about that except hope things fall the right way in the final four games.
Spain v Russia Pick: The first Semi Final has all the makings of a close one and I am a little surprised that Russia are being given as many points as they are... It is almost like the spread has been set as to how the game should go, but with little account of how these teams have played in the tournament so far.
Russia have looked good, while Spain have looked a little lethargic- whether they have just been saving themselves for this stage of the competition is up for debate, but I struggle to see how a team can just turn on the switch and play good basketball after having such a hard time over the last couple of weeks.
The three point shooting will be the key, but Russia have shown they can get that going and they have looked slightly better in defence of the two teams so taking the points looks the only sensible option for me (although they will probably lose by 6 on the nose with the way a lot of my picks have been going).
United States v Argentina Pick: The United States are really going to have to play some sloppy basketball if they are to fail to get the Gold Medal and I think they are going to be totally up for this Semi Final against the Argentinians and thus erase the memories, once and for all, of their Semi Final defeat at the same stage in Athens eight years ago.
The USA beat Argentina fairly comfortably in the Group Stage as they put a defensive clamp on them in the second half of that game before pulling away for the 29 point win. Too many players can get hot for the States that is hard to see how Argentina pull the surprise other than trying to hit a very high percentage of three pointers and then hope for a lot of luck.
The fight between some of the players in an exhibition game before the Olympics should have the United States fully motivated, something they didn't always show in the win over Australia, and that may allow them to replicate the Group game and win by more than 26 points in this one.
MY PICKS: 29/07 Brazil - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
29/07 Russia - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
31/07 Brazil - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
31/07 Argentina - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Lithuania + 6.5 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Argentina - 23.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
02/08 Spain - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Lithuania + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Spain - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
08/08 United States - 33.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
10/08 Russia + 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
10/08 United States - 24.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Olympic Update: 2-8, - 12.46 Units
First things first, I don't watch Women's basketball so I won't be making picks on a sport where I don't know anything about what is going on.
The second thing to point out is I won't try and look 'smart' by picking the United States to win the Gold Medal as even someone who has been living under a rock will be able to pick them as the winners.
July 29th
Brazil v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14596-Brazil-v-Australia.htm)
Great Britain v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14597-Great-Britain-v-Russia.htm)
July 31st
Great Britain v Brazil Pick: I didn't have time for full previews due to work commitments, but I do like Brazil to cover the spread in this game with Great Britain.
Great Britain were fairly comfortably beaten by Russia in their first game and only kept things as close as they did because of very solid production on the offensive boards- I don't think they will be able to have the same dominance in this one due to the Brazilian size and I would be surprised if they have half as many offensive boards as they did in the first game.
The shooting from the field was actually pretty poor and that is not going to see them keep things close against a Brazilian team that has plenty of scoring power and I expect they will win by closer to 20 points in this one.
France v Argentina Pick: Argentina were probably the most impressive winners in the first set of games (outside of the USA who were favoured by 24 points anyway) and I think they are going to be a little too good for a France team that has a few injuries to be concerned with.
With Tony Parker being 34, he can't be expected to log long minutes when games are played every other day and I think the French don't have the same depth as Argentina and that may be the difference in this game.
I think Argentina are probably the third best team in the tournament and I think they will be able to win this game and put themselves in a very strong position to qualify from the group, most likely behind the USA, but that alone should give them a good chance to get into the Medal contention.
August 2nd
France v Lithuania Pick: France surprised many people, including me, with their win over Argentina last time out and that puts them in a very strong position to finish behind the United States in Group A and avoid having to play them again until the Final at the earliest.
That can be almost all but guaranteed if they can win this game as they will have Nigeria and Tunisia left to play, two matches the French will expect to win.
Lithuania are actually ranked at Number 5 in the World Rankings, but they haven't played that well so far and so are considered the dogs in this one. However, I do believe they are a better team than they have shown and I would be surprised if they are blown out as badly as they were in the first game against Argentina.
I expect this to be a close contest, so I will take the points and hope Lithuania show off their real ability in this game.
Argentina v Tunisia Pick: Argentina were the team surprised by France in the last set of games and I think that means they will come out fired up to make a point against Tunisia who look the weakest team in this Group.
The Argentines still have to play the United States, but they will want to build confidence with remaining games against Nigeria and Tunisia also on slate. As one of the Medal favourites at the start of the tournament, anything less than a Bronze will not be acceptable, but that means they need to finish in the top three places and avoid a tough looking match against Spain, the most likely winner of Group B.
Tunisia look a little overmatched when it comes to talent, but I am surprised that they are only given half the points that they were against the United States and they look worth opposing in this one.
Spain v Great Britain: Spain look the best of the teams in Group B and I think the may just take advantage of a Great Britain team that has to be emotionally fragile after coming so close to upsetting Brazil in their last game.
With just a day of rest between games, Great Britain may also be considering reserving some energy for their final two games against Australia and China, especially if they fall into an early hole in this one. To qualify from the Group, I expect Great Britain will need to beat both Australia and China and there is a chance that they are looking ahead to those games with this one coming in a letdown spot.
I am a touch concerned that Spain themselves are potentially looking ahead to their final two games against Russia and Brazil which will decide the winner of the Group and the opportunity to avoid the United States until the Final at the earliest, but they will know they cannot take their eye off the ball here and will look to maintain momentum.
Russia beat Great Britain by 20 points and I think Spain are going to match that so will back them to cover the spread.
August 8th
I was absolutely fuming after missing two of my last three picks by a combined 3 points and couldn't believe the way my luck had landed so held off until the Quarter Finals where the urgency should be greater in a 'play hard or go home' setting.
Russia v Lithuania Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14611-Russia-v-Lithuania.htm)
France v Spain Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14612-France-v-Spain.htm)
United States v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14613-United-States-v-Australia.htm)
August 10th
I don't think I have ever been on a run of form where so many of the picks I have made have literally been beaten by so little... In fact, five of the picks that have fallen by the wayside have done by a combined 10 points and that is just bad luck and great work by the layers that have got the lines dead right.
With the way the Olympics have been, the layers have had the advantage in a competition like this, but it's the little things that have cost me- be that missed free throws once the cover looks certain to come in, meaningless buckets late or teams fouling into an against the spread loss, and there isn't a lot you can do about that except hope things fall the right way in the final four games.
Spain v Russia Pick: The first Semi Final has all the makings of a close one and I am a little surprised that Russia are being given as many points as they are... It is almost like the spread has been set as to how the game should go, but with little account of how these teams have played in the tournament so far.
Russia have looked good, while Spain have looked a little lethargic- whether they have just been saving themselves for this stage of the competition is up for debate, but I struggle to see how a team can just turn on the switch and play good basketball after having such a hard time over the last couple of weeks.
The three point shooting will be the key, but Russia have shown they can get that going and they have looked slightly better in defence of the two teams so taking the points looks the only sensible option for me (although they will probably lose by 6 on the nose with the way a lot of my picks have been going).
United States v Argentina Pick: The United States are really going to have to play some sloppy basketball if they are to fail to get the Gold Medal and I think they are going to be totally up for this Semi Final against the Argentinians and thus erase the memories, once and for all, of their Semi Final defeat at the same stage in Athens eight years ago.
The USA beat Argentina fairly comfortably in the Group Stage as they put a defensive clamp on them in the second half of that game before pulling away for the 29 point win. Too many players can get hot for the States that is hard to see how Argentina pull the surprise other than trying to hit a very high percentage of three pointers and then hope for a lot of luck.
The fight between some of the players in an exhibition game before the Olympics should have the United States fully motivated, something they didn't always show in the win over Australia, and that may allow them to replicate the Group game and win by more than 26 points in this one.
MY PICKS: 29/07 Brazil - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
29/07 Russia - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
31/07 Brazil - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
31/07 Argentina - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Lithuania + 6.5 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Argentina - 23.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
02/08 Spain - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Lithuania + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Spain - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
08/08 United States - 33.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
10/08 Russia + 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
10/08 United States - 24.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Olympic Update: 2-8, - 12.46 Units
Tennis Picks July 28th (London Olympics Day 1)
The major talking point from this week on the tennis calender is the London Olympics which will be played at Wimbledon from July 28th-August 5th.
However, there will also be an ATP 500 event in Washington which will begin on Monday and this is all before the two Masters tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati begin on Monday 6th August.
I have made four outright picks from the Olympic tournament and those can be found here
Below, I have started the picks from the First Round matches that will be played on Saturday:
David Nalbandian v Janko Tipsarevic: This is a rematch from Wimbledon when these two players also met in the First Round and saw Janko Tipsarevic win in straight sets.
However, that match was much closer than it seems on first viewing with David Nalbandian missing a huge number of break point chances in that match which would have seen him split the first two sets and made a real match of it.
Tipsarevic has also been spending a lot of time on the clay courts between Wimbledon and this tournament and so he will also be looking to make a quick adjustment between surfaces while Nalbandian has taken a few weeks off (likely to avoid the press after what happened at Queens as much as getting ready for this tournament).
I just find it strange that the layers have actually made Nalbandian a much bigger price to win this match than when they met at Wimbledon and I actually believe the best of three sets will likely suit him better as he proved when reaching the Final at Queens in the lead up to the third Grand Slam of the year.
With the match at Wimbledon being as close as it was, I think the odds on Nalbandian are a bit of a joke to be honest and I will back him for the minimum stakes to get the better of Tipsarevic this time.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Olivier Rochus: I think John Isner has had a bit of a disappointing season after some impressive Davis Cup performances which has seen him beat the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Roger Federer on the clay courts.
He was a First Round loser at Wimbledon, but should have picked up some confidence from winning a grass tournament in Newport and reaching the Semi Finals in Atlanta and I think his serving may cause the diminutive Oliver Rochus some problems and build up the scoreboard pressure that will eventually see the Belgian crack.
Rochus makes up for his lack of size with a big heart, but I find it hard to see him getting too much joy from the Isner service game and that may be the difference between them.
Isner has also beaten Rochus in both previous matches, including on a grass court last season, and would have covered this spread on offer on both occasions.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Lukasz Kubot: I am a little high on the way Grigor Dimitrov has been going about his business in recent weeks and there are some real signs that he is going to be able to fulfil some of the potential he has.
He reached the Semi Final at Queens earlier this year and was showing something on the grass courts at Wimbledon before he had to pull out with an injury. He has since reached the Semi Final of a clay court event and that includes a ridiculously comfortable win over Lukasz Kubot.
The Polish player is a solid competitor that has had his best time on the Tour over the last couple of seasons and he did reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2011. However, he has not shown that level of form on the grass courts this season and I think Dimitrov is going to be too strong in all aspects of the game.
The first set could be close and may even need a tie-break, but I expect the Bulgarian to earn two breaks of serve in this match and that could be enough to see him through with a cover of this spread.
Fernando Verdasco v Denis Istomin: This has been set slightly close to a pick 'em contest and I just believe that Fernando Verdasco should be a stronger favourite in my opinion.
Let's not beat around the bush- Verdasco has not had the most consistent of two seasons and he hasn't really shown a lot of positive form since beating Rafael Nadal in Madrid.
However, he does have a 3-0 head to head against Denis Istomin and that kind of positive vibe will not be lost on a player that may have lost some confidence after recent results. Istomin did reach the Quarter Final in Eastbourne and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon so he is clearly comfortable on the grass courts, but he can be a little hit and miss and it is hard to see him so short to beat a player like Verdasco.
It has the makings of a three set match, but it is one that I believe Verdasco can win and move on to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: David Nalbandian @ 2.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games @ 2.01 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.84 Pinnacle (2 Units)
However, there will also be an ATP 500 event in Washington which will begin on Monday and this is all before the two Masters tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati begin on Monday 6th August.
I have made four outright picks from the Olympic tournament and those can be found here
Below, I have started the picks from the First Round matches that will be played on Saturday:
David Nalbandian v Janko Tipsarevic: This is a rematch from Wimbledon when these two players also met in the First Round and saw Janko Tipsarevic win in straight sets.
However, that match was much closer than it seems on first viewing with David Nalbandian missing a huge number of break point chances in that match which would have seen him split the first two sets and made a real match of it.
Tipsarevic has also been spending a lot of time on the clay courts between Wimbledon and this tournament and so he will also be looking to make a quick adjustment between surfaces while Nalbandian has taken a few weeks off (likely to avoid the press after what happened at Queens as much as getting ready for this tournament).
I just find it strange that the layers have actually made Nalbandian a much bigger price to win this match than when they met at Wimbledon and I actually believe the best of three sets will likely suit him better as he proved when reaching the Final at Queens in the lead up to the third Grand Slam of the year.
With the match at Wimbledon being as close as it was, I think the odds on Nalbandian are a bit of a joke to be honest and I will back him for the minimum stakes to get the better of Tipsarevic this time.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Olivier Rochus: I think John Isner has had a bit of a disappointing season after some impressive Davis Cup performances which has seen him beat the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Roger Federer on the clay courts.
He was a First Round loser at Wimbledon, but should have picked up some confidence from winning a grass tournament in Newport and reaching the Semi Finals in Atlanta and I think his serving may cause the diminutive Oliver Rochus some problems and build up the scoreboard pressure that will eventually see the Belgian crack.
Rochus makes up for his lack of size with a big heart, but I find it hard to see him getting too much joy from the Isner service game and that may be the difference between them.
Isner has also beaten Rochus in both previous matches, including on a grass court last season, and would have covered this spread on offer on both occasions.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Lukasz Kubot: I am a little high on the way Grigor Dimitrov has been going about his business in recent weeks and there are some real signs that he is going to be able to fulfil some of the potential he has.
He reached the Semi Final at Queens earlier this year and was showing something on the grass courts at Wimbledon before he had to pull out with an injury. He has since reached the Semi Final of a clay court event and that includes a ridiculously comfortable win over Lukasz Kubot.
The Polish player is a solid competitor that has had his best time on the Tour over the last couple of seasons and he did reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2011. However, he has not shown that level of form on the grass courts this season and I think Dimitrov is going to be too strong in all aspects of the game.
The first set could be close and may even need a tie-break, but I expect the Bulgarian to earn two breaks of serve in this match and that could be enough to see him through with a cover of this spread.
Fernando Verdasco v Denis Istomin: This has been set slightly close to a pick 'em contest and I just believe that Fernando Verdasco should be a stronger favourite in my opinion.
Let's not beat around the bush- Verdasco has not had the most consistent of two seasons and he hasn't really shown a lot of positive form since beating Rafael Nadal in Madrid.
However, he does have a 3-0 head to head against Denis Istomin and that kind of positive vibe will not be lost on a player that may have lost some confidence after recent results. Istomin did reach the Quarter Final in Eastbourne and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon so he is clearly comfortable on the grass courts, but he can be a little hit and miss and it is hard to see him so short to beat a player like Verdasco.
It has the makings of a three set match, but it is one that I believe Verdasco can win and move on to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: David Nalbandian @ 2.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games @ 2.01 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.84 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Friday, 27 July 2012
Outright Picks London Olympics (July 28-August 5)
I took the last week off from making any picks from the three tennis tournaments going on as I felt there was just not enough motivation for some of the better players with this event beginning on Saturday 28th July.
While it is a smaller event than the Grand Slams, it still needs to be given a lot of respect as it actually has more participants than the Masters events that will be taking place in North America in the first couple of weeks in August.
There are a couple of notable absentees, but the major one is Rafael Nadal and that has skewed the Men's outright winner market with two clear favourites in Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. In the Women's tournament, Serena Williams has continuously seen her coming in as the favourite since winning at Wimbledon at the beginning of the month.
While it is a smaller event than the Grand Slams, it still needs to be given a lot of respect as it actually has more participants than the Masters events that will be taking place in North America in the first couple of weeks in August.
There are a couple of notable absentees, but the major one is Rafael Nadal and that has skewed the Men's outright winner market with two clear favourites in Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. In the Women's tournament, Serena Williams has continuously seen her coming in as the favourite since winning at Wimbledon at the beginning of the month.
Men's Tournament
First Quarter
For the first time in a long time, Roger Federer will be heading up the draw and he has been given an intriguing First Round match against Alejandro Falla who had match points against Federer back in the First Round at Wimbledon in 2010. On that occasion, Falla actually won the first two sets and that would be enough for him to earn the win this time although I think the Colombian is unlikely to play to the level he did in that match a couple of years ago.
Federer could also potentially meet Julian Benneteau in the Second Round, a player that had a two set lead over the World Number 1 in the Third Round at Wimbledon this year, but it would be a big surprise if the confidence of winning at Wimbledon sees Federer drop to either of these players.
The Quarter as a whole looks there for the taking for Federer and I don't expect him to miss out with the importance he has put on earning a Gold Medal as a singles player for the first time. However, there is a potentially awkward match against John Isner that could be set for the Quarter Final.
Isner won a recent tournament at Newport on the grass, but he has not really fulfilled the promise of a season where he has beaten Federer in a best of five sets match on a clay court in Switzerland. He was beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon, but the best of three sets played at Wimbledon may just suit him a little more, although it would be a big surprise if anyone but Roger Federer is playing in the Semi Final.
Prediction: Got to be Roger Federer after winning Wimbledon and with a kind looking draw
Second Quarter
David Ferrer is the top seed in this section thanks to the absence of Rafael Nadal and it looks like this could be his third successful foray on to the grass courts this season alone. Ferrer won the tournament ahead of Wimbledon in Holland and then reached the Quarter Final at the Grand Slam.
The Spaniard looks like he is going to have a little too much consistency for anyone else in the section and he has a winning record over most of his potential opponents ahead of the Quarter Final here.
Some out there will be intrigued by Juan Martin Del Potro who is a potential opponent at that stage, but I remain convinced that the Argentine is not comfortable on the grass courts despite seemingly having all the tools that should make him a success. However, the lower bouncing balls makes it harder for him to dominate behind his groundstrokes in my opinion and he won just 8 games against Ferrer when they met in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon earlier this month.
He also has a couple of potentially awkward matches against Andreas Seppi, Grigor Dimitrov or Gilles Simon in his mini-section and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the big man doesn't reach the Quarter Final. Del Potro does have the quality to get to that stage, but all three of those players I mentioned can play very well on the grass courts and could cause a surprise.
Prediction: David Ferrer has the consistency, the quality and the draw to get through to the Semi Final
Third Quarter
After the disappointment of the Wimbledon Final, Andy Murray will get his Olympic Gold Medal search underway but he won't be that happy with the draw. I remember we heard all the same things ahead of Wimbledon this year, but I actually this is a little more awkward than that one mainly because a best of three match can be finished before a player really gets going.
That will be the case for Murray if he doesn't have the right mindset with Stanislas Wawrinka his first opponent on slate, a player that has had a tough season for consistency but one that can perform well on the grass.
Further danger may lie in the Third Round where a rematch of his tough Wimbledon match with Marcos Baghdatis could await or a match with Richard Gasquet. I personally think Baghdatis would be the more dangerous opponent as Gasquet has a mental block it seems in matches he is not expected to win.
Tomas Berdych may provide the biggest danger to Murray as a potential Quarter Final opponent, but the Czech player needs to find form quickly if he is to get through to the Semi Final. He was a disappointing First Round loser at Wimbledon and was also beaten by Tommy Haas in his second match at Halle and has perhaps been under-performing in 2012 despite winning over 70% of his matches.
If the big man can find a bit of form, the draw looks like one that will suit him with the biggest problem likely to come from his rival Nicolas Almagro in the Third Round. However, the Spaniard hasn't got the best form on grass courts and Berdych should be too good on this surface.
Prediction: Tomas Berdych has a winning record over Andy Murray and may just be too good in a best of three set potential Quarter Final
Fourth Quarter
The final Quarter of the draw has a number of players that will consider the grass courts as being comfortable to play on- the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Milos Raonic, Feliciano Lopez, Marin Cilic, Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic all are involved in the section and there are the potential of some really interesting matches.
Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the tournament, but he has a really awkward looking match with Andy Roddick on slate in the Second Round, while a potential Third Round match with Marin Cilic will not be easy after the Croatian won at Queens last month.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be awaiting a chance to gain some revenge over Djokovic after coming so close to beating him at the French Open a couple of months ago, but there is no guarantee the Frenchman can reach that stage as he has a potential match with Milos Raonic in the Second Round and that looks like it could be a long three setter with a couple of tie-breaks thrown in.
Prediction: I'd be a fool to write off Novak Djokovic reaching the Semi Final, but there are so many dangers throughout this section that I can see him going out at some point before the last four... Who takes advantage is anyone's guess?!
Gold Medal Winner
I think Roger Federer has to be very pleased with the draw that he has been given and he is likely to be secretly very happy to note that his nemesis Rafael Nadal will not be at the tournament.
After winning Wimbledon, Federer achieved a couple of his main goals for the 2012 season and that was winning a Grand Slam and reclaiming the World Number 1 spot. That should also give him plenty of confidence that he can win the last remaining piece that is missing on his CV as a singles player and that is the Gold Medal at this tournament.
Winning Wimbledon would also have shown Federer that he can beat anyone on the grass courts and he has the added bonus of not having to meet Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic until the Final when the Gold Medal is decided in a best of five sets match. I believe that will give Federer a little bit of mental comfort that the biggest threats to him winning this tournament would have to beat him over the longer distance rather than the best of three that can quickly get away against the best players (and would have seen him come VERY close to defeat at Wimbledon against Murray if that was decided in a best of three rather than five).
I am not surprised that Federer has joined Djokovic in the outright markets and he will be my main choice from the Men's draw.
The other pick I will make is Tomas Berdych as an each-way pick. I think he is questionable with the way his form has been over the last three months, but the likes of Murray and Djokovic have some really awkward looking matches in front of them and Berdych may just be able to take advantage.
The vast difference in prices makes the Czech player more appealing than those two, while he has seen it and done it before at Wimbledon as a former Finalist a couple of years ago.
Serena Williams, like Roger Federer, can only strengthen their position at the top of the Women's game and their place in history by winning this Gold Medal and I don't see too many players that are capable of beating her if I am honest, particularly not on the grass courts.
Women's Tournament
First Quarter
After her run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, Victoria Azarenka returned to the World Number 1 position and is thus given the honour of heading up the draw at the Olympics.
The first three Rounds of the draw don't seem to provide too many issues for Azarenka to negotiate, although a potential Third Round clash with Nadia Petrova wouldn't be an easy match. However, Azarenka has won the last two meetings with Petrova, both on a grass court no less, and I would favour her to be too good overall in that match.
It is at the Quarter Final stage that Azarenka is likely to face her biggest obstacle as she could play Angelique Kerber, the other Semi Finalist at Wimbledon that exited at that stage.
Kerber is the most likely opponent despite having Venus Williams in her mini-section of the draw, but I think the German is going to be too strong for the elder Williams sister that has struggled for consistency with the syndrome she is dealing with. As it is one that saps energy, I find it hard to believe Venus can roll back the clock in a tournament where players are likely going to play every day and so I do believe Kerber is the player that will move through to the Quarter Final.
Prediction: Victoria Azarenka looks the class in this section, but Angelique Kerber has shown how dangerous she can be on the grass courts.
Second Quarter
Serena Williams is rightly the favourite for this tournament after winning at Wimbledon and she should be fully motivated as winning the Singles Gold Medal will complete her career and ensure she has won everything possible while also matching older sister Venus who won in Sydney back in 2000.
The draw, on first viewing, looks to have been unkind to the Number 4 Seed, but I think Serena won't be too concerned. A match with Jelena Jankovic would have been a really tough one a couple of years ago, but the Serb is far from her best and she hasn't shown the pedigree needed to beat Serena on a grass court.
It would be more than a surprise if Serena Williams is not playing in the Quarter Final in a few days time.
Her opponent at that stage is not so obvious to pick as there are players that are very capable on going on a run- Caroline Wozniacki, Daniela Hantuchova, Na Li, Yanina Wickmayer and Tamira Paszek are all in this mini-section of the draw and it is the Austrian that I think may come through after her exploits at Wimbledon last month.
Paszek has shown she is more than capable on the grass courts and has been in the best form of the players I mentioned and I think she may be able to come through as long as she can bring her form from Wimbledon in.
Prediction: Regardless of who she plays in the Quarter Final, it is hard to look beyond Serena Williams here
Third Quarter
This section is all about whether Maria Sharapova can gain a measure of revenge against Sabine Lisicki, the player that beat her at Wimbledon last month. These two players are due to meet in the Third Round in this tournament, and I would expect the winner of that match will be the favourite to get through to the Semi Final.
One potential roadblock in the Quarter Final is Kim Clijsters although she will have to play a little better than she did at Wimbledon when hammered by Angelique Kerber.
However, there are other threats in this mini-section as the likes of Sam Stosur and Ana Ivanovic are likely opponents for Clijsters. However, Stosur has consistently under-performed when playing on the grass courts despite having what looks the right tools to play on the surface and Ana Ivanovic is still very inconsistent and wouldn't beat a fully-fit Clijsters in my opinion.
Prediction: This is a tough section, but I do believe the winner of it will be the winner of the Sabine Lisicki-Maria Sharapova match in the Third Round... That is a really close one to call in my opinion, but I think Sharapova's motivation for revenge may just send the pendulum her way
Fourth Quarter
This section comes down to two players as far as I am concerned and those two are Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska.
Both have shown their pedigree on the grass courts and had their Wimbledon runs ended by the same player in Serena Williams. Petra Kvitova was a Quarter Final victim the year after winning at Wimbledon, while Radwanska was the runner-up after showing some real resolve in overcoming an illness.
Of the two players, I think Kvitova has the more negotiable path to the Quarter Final and I fully expect her to make use of her draw and get to that stage.
On the other hand, Radwanska has a tough beginning against Julia Goerges, but it is the potential Third Round match with Maria Kirilenko that could really pose the most problems. Kirilenko pushed Radwanska to three sets in their Quarter Final at Wimbledon last month and that was one that could easily have gone either way.
Prediction: Agnieszka Radwanska has a tough looking draw and I believe Petra Kvitova moves through the draw to the Semi Final
Gold Medal Winner
Much as I said about the Men's event, it is hard to overlook a player that has achieved it all in the game as a Singles player and one who should be fully motivated to pick up the last prize on the list of achievement players set out for at the beginning of their career.
Serena Williams, like Roger Federer, can only strengthen their position at the top of the Women's game and their place in history by winning this Gold Medal and I don't see too many players that are capable of beating her if I am honest, particularly not on the grass courts.
Williams will also be full of confidence having won at Wimbledon earlier this month and she will be my main pick from the Women's draw.
I'll also have an each-way interest on Petra Kvitova in the bottom half of the draw after her achievements at Wimbledon over the last three years- she has won the event, reached a Semi Final and a Quarter Final and has only been beaten by Serena Williams in those events.
In that time, Kvitova has knocked off Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka (twice), Tsvetana Pironkova and Caroline Wozniacki at Wimbledon, while also earning wins over Daniela Hantuchova and Agnieszka Radwanska on the grass courts.
That list of names is not to be ignored and I think the Czech player has been given a draw to work her way into the tournament and could be a real threat this time next week.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.75 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 41.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Serena Williams @ 2.80 Boyle Sports (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 9.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Serena Williams @ 2.80 Boyle Sports (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 9.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Profit/Loss Recap
Daily Picks Final: 5-9, - 6.21 Units (22 Units Staked)
Outright Picks: - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)
Week Final: - 8.21 Units (24 Units Staked)
Season 2012: + 59.33 Units (654 Units Staked, 9.07% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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