French Open Outright Picks 2015 (May 24-June 7)

The second Grand Slam event of the season begins on Sunday 24th May and I think we are going to have a fun two weeks after seeing the draw which was made on Friday. On this thread I will put down my outright picks from the French Open with both men's and women's draws analysed.

Men's Tournament

After the way the clay court season has developed and taking into account the entire 2015 season to date, it is little wonder that Novak Djokovic has hardened as favourite to win his maiden French Open title.

There is no doubt that the French Open has been the prize that Djokovic has wished to win more than any other over the last couple of years as he looks to complete the career Grand Slam. After winning the titles in Monte Carlo and Rome, Novak Djokovic would likely have been favourite to win the French Open, but Rafael Nadal's struggles on the European clay courts have just strengthened the belief in Djokovic.

Nadal's lack of titles over the last six weeks of the season means he has dropped in the World Rankings and was always going to meet one of the top four players in the Quarter Finals stage. The draw has put together Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to meet at that stage, although the latter has a tougher four matches to negotiate to get to that Quarter Final.

Someone like Grigor Dimitrov can be very difficult to play on his day and is a potential Fourth Round opponent for Nadal, while Richard Gasquet looks to be the most difficult hurdle for Djokovic to negotiate in the first four Rounds.

Novak Djokovic would be a clear favourite to win any potential Quarter Final match between the two players because Rafael Nadal's confidence is far lower than the last two seasons when the Serb had his backers to overcome Nadal. You have to respect what Nadal has managed to do in Paris through his career and his 66-1 record makes his 5-1 quote to win the title look huge, but I would make Novak Djokovic a huge favourite to win this title and continue his strong run of wins.


Andy Murray is the third favourite to win the title in Paris having shown his best clay court form of the season by winning the events in Munich and Madrid in preparation for this event. However I am not convinced that Murray is really capable of winning seven best-of-five set matches on his worst surface and I think he should take the confidence of his run into stronger runs at Wimbledon and the US Open in the final two Grand Slams of the season.

He hasn't been helped by being placed in the same half of the draw as the top two favourites for the title, although Murray did beat Nadal comfortably in the Final in Madrid. However, that tournament is played on a much faster clay court than the one he will see in Paris and I wouldn't be confident backing Murray to beat Nadal at this event if they were to meet in the Semi Final. Suffice to say I'd be less confident in any win he could manage over Novak Djokovic and I think Murray looks short enough.

In fact it could pay to challenge Andy Murray in this second quarter of the draw by picking David Ferrer to come through on his favourite surface. You can't ignore the fact that Ferrer seems to be on the way down from his peak in his career, but the Spaniard is able to play the long gruelling rallies on the clay and has a draw that should see him work through to a potential Quarter Final with the British Number 1.

Ferrer has never been beaten by Andy Murray on the clay courts and I think he would challenge the latter more than most have on this surface during Murray's 10-0 run. At 4.00, Ferrer looks a big price to win this quarter and has to be worth a small interest.


With the top two favourites to win the Paris title in the top half of the draw, there is a real opportunity for someone from the bottom half to get all the way to the Final in two weeks time. Whoever that is will be a real underdog, but the likes of Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Fabio Fognini, Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer have to be very pleased with the draw and the opportunities that it has presented them.

Fabio Fognini and Tomas Berdych are Seeded to meet in a huge Third Round match and the Italian could be the surprise package of the tournament at triple digits to win, but half of that just to reach the Final.

That Third Round match makes both of those players tough to figure which one will go deepest in the draw, while Kei Nishikori has an awkward draw with some big hitters in his section that could cause problems.

I am still not convinced Stan Wawrinka is back to form after his run at Rome to the Semi Finals with the Swiss Number 2 struggling to balance his personal and professional lives and that leaves Roger Federer as the player that could take most advantage of the draw.

Federer can clearly point to the clay courts as being his worst surface these days and he might privately be thinking about his preparation for Wimbledon which quickly follows this event. However he has been given a boost by the draw where his biggest threat prior to the Quarter Finals might be Gael Monfils who has given Federer all he can handle in their last few meetings.

Monfils has been struggling with an injury that means he could be vulnerable early in the draw and may not get to the Fourth Round to face Federer, which would mean the latter has every chance to get to yet another Paris Final.

I can see a situation where Federer takes advantage of players who have had to battle through much more difficult matches in the Quarter Final and Semi Final. That will give him every chance to reach the Final in two weeks time although Federer is unlikely to be a favourite even if he does reach that stage unless something crazy has happened in the top half of the draw with Djokovic and Nadal both knocked out.


I can't look beyond Novak Djokovic here and he has to be the main point of interest for the picks, although I will also have a small interest on Rafael Nadal because of his history here. Roger Federer also deserves a small interest in the each-way market which would create a profit if he was to reach the Final on Sunday 7th June.

I will also have a small interest on David Ferrer to win the Second Quarter where Andy Murray is a strong favourite because I think the Spaniard is the better clay court player. The draw has given Ferrer every chance to face Andy Murray in the Quarter Final, although the British Number 1 has a couple of tough roadblocks to negotiate and Ferrer could give us a profit by simply reaching the Quarter Final.

Women's Tournament

The favourite for every WTA event she enters is Serena Williams but there have to be some huge red flags up for anyone that is thinking about backing her to win the French Open. Serena Williams has been struggling with some kind of injury which is affecting her service action, while the American has only won the French Open twice and she has been stunned in early losses here twice in the last three years, although winning the other tournament.

Add in the fact that Serena Williams has the likes of Victoria Azarenka and Venus Williams as potential opponents BEFORE the Quarter Finals and you can see why Serena Williams looks a vulnerable favourite. In saying that, her price reflects the issues that Serena Williams is going to need to overcome to win the title, although it is not big enough to attract me to putting her in my pricing plan for the next two weeks.

One player who could take advantage in her half of the draw has to be Petra Kvitova who seems to have been revitalised by her decision to take six weeks off from the Tour. Kvitova has won the title in Madrid in preparation for the French Open, where she also beat Serena Williams, but the one concern has to be that Kvitova has never been beyond the Semi Final here and that was the only time she has been beyond the Fourth Round in Paris.

There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the best surface for Kvitova who hits the ball very hard and has a big serve, but her movement can be a problem when the rallies are extended.

Kvitova does seem to have a favourable draw, although she would probably like to see someone knock out Svetlana Kuznetsova from her section, and she could be the player to take advantage of Serena Williams' issues.

Maria Sharapova also looks to have received a favourable draw and she has reached the Final of the French Open in three consecutive years while winning twice. The clay courts never used to sit well with Sharapova, but it can be argued she is the best player on these courts and I can see the Russian clean up after players have had to play tough matches ahead of meetings with her.

There are some dangers in her section with the likes of Sam Stosur playing well, but Sharapova would feel confident in her chances to get through that kind of match. The likes of Simona Halep, Carla Suarez Navarro, Angelique Kerber all have played well during the last six weeks to think they can be a threat to Sharapova in the bottom half, but they all have to get through some difficult matches before they face the Russian who may just have more both physically and mentally when those matches take place.

With her previous experiences at Roland Garros, Maria Sharapova will feel confident she can go all the way again this year and I think she is worthy of a couple of units to do that.

It is always difficult to pick an outright winner in a tournament where Serena Williams is involved that is not called Serena Williams because she is clearly the best player in the World on her day. However, the injury doubts and the awkward looking draw might give someone else a chance to take the title and I will have interests in Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova to be those players.

I really did consider Caroline Garcia to win the third quarter of the draw too considering her record against Ana Ivanovic who is the second highest Seed in that section. My concern was that Garcia is still very inconsistent and has to deal with the pressure of playing at home and so I will take a watching brief with the expectation that Simona Halep is the player most likely to come out of that quarter.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 1.91 Paddy Power (8 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 6.00 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer @ 11.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)
David Ferrer Win Second Quarter @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova @ 12.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Maria Sharapova @ 5.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 7-7, - 2.04 Units (28 Units Staked, - 7.29% Yield)

Season 2015: + 39.95 Units (681 Units Staked, + 5.87% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Australian Open Outright Picks 2015 (January 19th-February 1st)

The tennis season officially began two weeks ago, but I have made a conscious effort to wait until the Australian Open before I make my opening picks of this 2015 season after looking through the records from the last couple of seasons.

The opening weeks of the season are usually a little more difficult with players coming back of their pre-season training sessions and it is clear that most will have been focusing on the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the season.

It seemed to be a decision that was justified by some of the results that had come through from Doha in the first week of the season with both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal exiting early from that event, while I can't imagine too many would have picked Ivo Karlovic going as deep in the event as he did.

A look at my results from the last three seasons showed I was very much behind the black ball after the first two weeks of the season, but the Australian Open, like the majority of Grand Slam events have provided decent returns so it made most sense to sit out the first two weeks. The only way it will be fully seen as the right decision is if the Australian Open develops into a good tournament for the picks and get the 2015 season off to a good start.

Men's Tournament

First Quarter

The top quarter of the draw is where the World's Number 1 player, Novak Djokovic, is usually placed and the Serb cannot be that disappointed with the manner in which the draw panned out for him. The Australian Open has been his most successful tournament to date and Djokovic will be desperate to put aside the defeat by Stan Wawrinka last season and return to winning ways here.

The early Rounds look very much a cruise for Djokovic, although Fernando Verdasco has had previous form at Melbourne Park even if he is not the same player as he was back in 2009. The Fourth Round is likely to be the first real test for Djokovic, especially if John Isner can work his way through the draw as a real dangerous player when serving at his 'A' level.

Juan Martin Del Potro and Gael Monfils are two players that can potentially upset the apple-cart on the way to a Quarter Final with Djokovic, but neither would really be expected to beat the World Number 1 for a couple of different reasons. Del Potro is only just back from a wrist injury that made 2014 a lost season, while Monfils doesn't always show the mental belief against the top players.

That means Milos Raonic is the most likely Quarter Final opponent for Djokovic and the Canadian player has begun to show a little more to his game than simply a bludgeoning serve and a heavy forehand. He is a little more consistent from behind the baseline, but his return of serve has to improve if there are serious ambitions for Raonic to win a Grand Slam event and beat a player of the calibre of Djokovic in a best of five set match.

First Quarter Winner: Novak Djokovic

Second Quarter

The highest seed in the second quarter, and the defending Australian Open Champion, Stan Wawrinka has to be very happy with the way the draw has also worked out for him with the threats in the section unlikely to come before the Quarter Final.

The seeds in his half of this quarter are Alexandr Dolgopolov, who is potentially going to withdraw with an injury, Fabio Fognini and Pablo Cuevas and you have to think Wawrinka is unlikely to lose too many sets, let alone lose a match, in the first four Rounds of the tournament.

It is very unlikely to be so easy for him in the Quarter Final with both David Ferrer, who won in Doha, and Kei Nishikori, who reached the Final at the US Open, expected to face off in the Fourth Round to meet Stan Wawrinka.

Someone like Gilles Simon could spoil that potential Fourth Round classic, while both Ferrer and Nishikori have the kind of game that will give players chances against them as they have to work so hard to hold service games. However, neither player has too many players in their sections that could spoil their first Grand Slam of the season and Stan Wawrinka will be hoping to pick up the pieces if Ferrer and Nishikori have a tough, long battle against one another in the Fourth Round.

Second Quarter Winner: Stan Wawrinka to pick the bones of the winner of the David Ferrer-Kei Nishikori potential Fourth Round match

Third Quarter

The third quarter of the draw is very open due to the fact that there are enough doubts about Rafael Nadal and his fitness going into the event having been beaten early in the Singles draw in Doha. The lack of tennis since Wimbledon last June has to be a concern, but Nadal has enjoyed previous visits to Melbourne Park and the Spaniard would be tough to oppose any time he takes to the court.

I am convinced that Nadal would have liked an easier First Round match than facing the veteran Mikhail Youzhny, but he should be too strong for him and potentially also has to face Lukas Rosol in the Third Round, a player that has given Nadal some real problems in two matches at Wimbledon in the past.

One player in this section that would love to see Nadal fall early is Tomas Berdych considering his struggles against him in the past, as well as the fact that Nadal would have played himself in by the time the Quarter Finals roll around. Berdych was a Semi Finalist in Australia last season, but he is in the tougher half of the draw if he would like to surpass that achievement this time around.

The enigmatic Ernests Gulbis is a potential Fourth Round opponent, but he has struggled with injury and form since a strong showing at the French Open last season and Berdych will be expected to at least line up in the Quarter Final. However, Rafa Nadal remains the favourite to come through this section if he can come through the first two Rounds here.

Third Quarter Winner: Rafael Nadal

Fourth Quarter

The bottom half of the men's draw is certainly one that is likely to produce the most fireworks before the Quarter Finals, and it is the fourth quarter of the draw that does look like producing the best matches.

Roger Federer is the Number 2 player in the World Rankings and won in Brisbane to give his supporters more belief that he can win his first Grand Slam tournament since winning at Wimbledon in 2012. He showed consistency in the 2014 season to get back to this position in the Rankings, but only reached one Final (and two Semi Finals) at the Grand Slam events and there still remains some doubts that the best of five set matches will see the best from the Swiss superstar.

There are two major threats in this section to Roger Federer's hopes of at least making the Semi Final and those come in the form of Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov. To be fair, Federer has dominated Dimitrov in the head to head and will feel he can get the better of him, but Andy Murray has been in decent form since the US Open last season and looks to be getting back to the kind of level that saw him win two Grand Slam titles in 2012/2013.

Murray has reached the Final three times here before so he is used to the conditions at Melbourne Park and he should be well rested before a potential Fourth Round clash with Grigor Dimitrov. There are some mental issues to overcome after being close to embarrassed by Dimitrov at Wimbledon last season, but Dimitrov may have faced a tough Third Round match against David Goffin and Murray could out-last him.

I don't anticipate too many issues for Federer before the Quarter Final and I think that could give him the edge over his potential opponent in that Round. Federer won't want to under-estimate someone like Tommy Robredo who beat him at the US Open in 2013, although there were some injury issues that Federer had been dealing with, while the home support will be hoping Nick Kyrgios can show he is a potential Grand Slam winner of the future.

Fourth Quarter Winner: Roger Federer with the slightly easier run than Andy Murray/Grigor Dimitrov

Winner and Picks
There were rumours on Saturday that Novak Djokovic was about to pull out of the Australian Open, but he has admitted he has overcome some illness over the last couple of days and is feeling good for this tournament. With the way the draw has developed, it is going to be a tough task to knock off the player that has won 4 Australian Open titles and 3 Quarter Finals over the last seven years.

Djokovic should have the chance to play himself into contention through this tournament and I expect him to get stronger and stronger and it is hard to see beyond him winning the title here.

The defending Champion Stan Wawrinka is a potential Semi Final opponent and will have the belief he can beat Djokovic for the second time in a row at Melbourne Park, but he has the tougher path to the Semi Final and I expect Djokovic to exact revenge.

He might not think much of his own chances at this event, but I am going to have a small interest in Rafael Nadal to perhaps come out of the bottom half of the draw. If Nadal can come through a couple of awkward early matches, he is another player whose confidence could get stronger as the week progresses and has reached the Final the last two times he has played at the Australian Open.

Nadal hasn't really performed that well the first two weeks of the season, but he has the mental edge over Roger Federer, the most likely Semi Final opponent, and over Tomas Berdych, the most likely Quarter Final opponent. As I said, if he can get through the opening three Rounds, Nadal may just surprise some of his detractors and at least get to the Final again.

Women's Tournament

First Quarter

Serena Williams didn't have a great season in 2014 in terms of Grand Slam events won and her performances at the Hopman Cup have seen the layers lengthen her odds to win at the Australian Open. The American is the Number 1 Seed at Melbourne Park, but heavy losses in her only event prior to the first Grand Slam event of the season has to be a real concern and she is vulnerable in Australia where she hasn't won the title since 2010.

She will get a chance to try and play herself into the tournament, but there dangers lurking in this section including from Garbine Muguruza who beat Serena at the French Open last year. The young Spaniard is a potential Fourth Round opponent for Williams and players like Dominika Cibulkova and Victoria Azarenka have had a lot of success in this tournament in the past to believe they could potentially surprise Williams before the Semi Final stage.

One player that I am not convinced about is the second highest Seed in the section, Caroline Wozniacki, who has been suffering with an injury that could take away her chances. Wozniacki has been playing well over the last six months which would have made her a possible threat to win her first Grand Slam title, but I think it will be tough for her, especially with a potential match against Azarenka in the Second Round in her path.

First Quarter Winner: Hard to back against Serena Williams despite a tough draw

Second Quarter

After winning Wimbledon for the first time, Petra Kvitova admitted that she didn't deal with her new found fame in the manner she would have liked, so it will be interesting to see how this season develops after winning that Grand Slam title for the second time last June. The US Open was something of a let down, but Kvitova won the title in Sydney last week and she looks a big threat at Melbourne Park to take advantage of any let down that Serena Williams may have.

The draw looks very kind for Kvitova and I think she can come through the first few matches without dropping a set, which has been an issue for her over the last two seasons. Kvitova's biggest threat ahead of the Quarter Final could come from Andrea Petkovic as Sam Stosur has struggled in her home Grand Slam event, but the biggest match she is likely to face in this section is from Agnieszka Radwanska.

Radwanska should be able to come through the early Rounds as comfortably as I am expecting from Kvitova, but Venus Williams did show her capabilities by winning the title in Auckland to open the new season and the veteran American is a potential Fourth Round opponent. Williams could have a tough Third Round match against Flavia Pennetta to overcome and I am not convinced she has the same level of fitness as she had in her prime to win another Grand Slam event.

However, I do think Venus Williams can perhaps upset the odds and reach the Quarter Final, although that is where I would expect Petra Kvitova to just have too many winners in her locker.

Second Quarter Winner: Petra Kvitova

Third Quarter

Over the last couple of seasons, the women's draw in the Grand Slam events have been much more open than the men's event and that has led to a number of different faces reaching the latter stages of competition. The third quarter of the draw looks an interesting one which is led by Simona Halep and Ana Ivanovic when it comes to the Seeding.

Those two players are going to overcome some tough obstacles to reach the Quarter Final that has been seeded and it wouldn't be a surprise if one, perhaps both, of those players fail to reach the last eight. Sabine Lisicki, Ekaterina Makarova, Karolina Pliskova and Belinda Bencic will all feel they could potentially upset the top two players in the section, although the latter three of those players are in the same part of the draw as Ana Ivanovic.

Simona Halep was very consistent last season as she reached the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in the first three Grand Slam tournaments in 2014 and I will count the early US Open exit as an exception than anything more of a long-term concern. Halep has beaten Sabine Lisicki the last three times they have played one another, and I think she can pick the bones off the player that comes through to meet her in the Quarter Final and so surpass her last eight appearance here last season.

Third Quarter Winner: Simona Halep

Fourth Quarter

The final quarter of the draw is where Maria Sharapova resides and she has to be fairly pleased with her draw compared with someone like Serena Williams, especially after winning in Brisbane. However, Sharapova has only reached one Final in the last five years at the Australian Open and one other Semi Final in that time which suggests she isn't at her best at Melbourne Park which could open the door for someone to perhaps grab a surprising Semi Final appearance.

Eugenie Bouchard would be the only other player that fans would expect to be a challenger for the Semi Final place after her success at the Grand Slams during 2014, but that also means she comes into this season as a 'scalp' for other players on the Tour. Dealing with that pressure can be tough and Bouchard was a little inconsistent at the Hopman Cup, while the Canadian could definitely have asked for a better draw.

Players like Svetlana Kuznetsova and Angelique Kerber are potential opponents for Bouchard before the Quarter Final, especially Kuznetsova who beat Bouchard twice in 2014. That Third Round match could be the one that ends her run at Melbourne Park and the draw has favoured Sharapova who doesn't seem to have the same threats in her part of the draw.

Someone like Sorana Cirstea could bring her 'A' game and potentially surprise Sharapova in the Second Round if the latter is having troubles with the conditions here, while Lucie Safarova is a potentially awkward Fourth Round opponent. However, Sharapova can play her way into this tournament and perhaps reach the Semi Final from this section where the main threats seem to be in the upper half of the quarter.

Fourth Quarter Winner: Maria Sharapova

Winner and Picks

Over the last few seasons, any Grand Slam tournament was going to go off with Serena Williams a short price to win the event, but her performances at the major events in 2014 coupled with a disappointing Hopman Cup has raised enough doubts to make her as big as 4.00 to win this event.

The draw is potentially awkward and Serena Williams hasn't been beyond the Quarter Final in her last three appearances at the Australian Open, while she hasn't won the tournament since 2010. Those results and her results in Grand Slam events in 2014 and the Hopman Cup earlier this month would make it extremely difficult for me to back the American even if she has the capability to beat anyone she faces as long as she brings her best to the court.

Her quarter of the draw has a couple of tough players in it who could take advantage of the an under-performing Serena or make the most of a surprise exit, but it is difficult to be confident as to who that will be and instead I will have a couple of each-way picks on two players that could go all the way.

Maria Sharapova is the second favourite in the event, but she is another player that has struggled to impose herself at the Australian Open. Sharapova does have a decent draw, but her serving was letting her down towards the end of last season and that has to be a concern for a player that has only won this title once before.

Instead, I am looking for a couple of potential first time winners here- Petra Kvitova had an awful Grand Slam record outside of Wimbledon last year and you can't ignore that she has not been past the Third Round at any Grand Slam outside of SW19 since the US Open in 2012 (Fourth Round exit).

Kvitova hasn't got through the Second Round here in her last two appearances at Melbourne Park, but the draw gives her a chance to play herself into the tournament and she was in good form in Sydney last week in a competitive draw. I think she will make a lot more use of her second Wimbledon crown and I am expecting a much better showing from her at this level than she has had outside of that Slam.

The second player is Simona Halep who had a breakout 2014 season and could be the player that takes advantage of the fact she has could be playing opponents who are expected to come through tougher matches than herself. She could pick the bones of tired opponents and Halep performed well in three of the four Grand Slams last season and has the fitness to go very deep in this tournament. If Sharapova is beaten before the Semi Final stage, Halep could go all the way to the Final here having lost in the Quarter Final last season and has to be worth an interest too.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.00 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 12.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit E/W)
Petra Kvitova @ 11.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)

Simona Halep @ 11.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit E/W)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (June 10-16)

Just like that, the second Grand Slam of the season is in the books as Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams both picked up the titles in the Men's and Women's tournaments. They were the two players that started as favourites to win at Roland Garros two weeks ago and barring a couple of blips, they were the two best players in Paris.

The end of the French Open signals the start of the short grass court season and two of the bigger preparation tournaments for Wimbledon, on the ATP Tour, begin on Monday. Queens and Halle have generally had the biggest players in the Men's game taking part, although both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are two players that won't be playing either tournament this week.

Djokovic has decided against playing one of these events for the last couple of years so his absence wasn't a surprise, but Nadal pulled out of Halle on Saturday citing fatigue from his exploits at the French Open before the Final was to be played.

It is a short turnaround in the next three weeks between the second and third Grand Slam events of the season and it is also wise to keep in mind those players that struggle on the grass, while also being aware of those that seem to come alive for this month of the year.


ATP London/Queens
The Number 1 seed at the tournament in London this week is Andy Murray who makes his return to the Tour after deciding to pull out of the French Open with a lingering back issue. He has been back on the grass courts for around ten days so I do expect he will be feeling better, while the grass tends not to aggravate the injury he has to the same extent as the long, drawn out rallies on the clay certainly can.

I can understand why Murray has been set as the favourite to win this tournament considering he is a two-time former winner of the event here, while he also reached the Final at Wimbledon and won the Olympic Gold on the grass courts last season. I do believe he is one of the more effective grass court players on the Tour, but he could potentially face a very awkward first competitive match back if Nicolas Mahut gets through to face him in the Second Round.

It was Mahut who beat Murray at Queens last season and his serve-volley game is perfectly suited to these courts for the former Finalist who is best known for his epic match against John Isner at Wimbledon in 2010.

Even if Murray can get through that Second Round match, as I would expect, he could face another tough challenge in Michael Llodra in the next Round with potential matches against Lukas Rosol, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just to get to the Final.

I do expect Murray to get through to the Final, but there are too many question marks for me to feel comfortable at 3.00 and I will instead look at the other half of the draw.


There are some big names in the second half of the draw with the likes of Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, defending Champion Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov, but I do think it could make the most sense to back a different former winner in the form of Sam Querrey to come through to the Final at the least.

You can definitely question the credentials of every player in the second half of the draw- Berdych has been poor on the grass last season, Del Potro is coming off a lay-off, Cilic has struggled for form, Dimitrov has a tough draw with a potential match against Lleyton Hewitt in the Second Round, and Querrey hasn't won a title since July last year.

So why have I decided to pick the American Querrey? He has a decent record here as a winner in 2010 and reaching the Semi Final last season and he has the game that makes him a big threat on these faster surfaces. Querrey has a big serve and forehand and that certainly gives him a chance against anyone on the surface, while the draw could open up for him if he can come through his first couple of matches.

I am a little concerned that he doesn't have the best head to head record against potential Semi Final opponents like Berdych and Cilic, but the 29.00 being offered on Querrey looks far too big to me considering his previous form at Queens.

Berdych and Del Potro at single figures look remarkably short, while Cilic does not have the best draw and a lot is pointing at Querrey as being the man that could take advantage in this event.


ATP Halle
There was no doubt that Roger Federer would be feeling very disappointed in the manner in which he was beaten at the French Open, but he has been bullish about his chances to win titles now that he is back on his favourite surface. Federer has yet to win a title this season and he went to Paris for the first time in 13 years without having done so and I do believe that a good tournament here is imperative for his confidence ahead of his defence at Wimbledon.

I don't think he can complain too much about the field he faces here at Halle, a tournament he has won 5 times, even if he is likely going to face the big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the Quarter Final and then a potential match with the defending Champion Tommy Haas or Milos Raonic in the Semi Final.

Haas did indeed beat Federer in the Final last year to make it the third German Champion in the last four years, but the veteran could be a little tired from his exploits in Paris last week and also has been given a very tough draw. His first match is going to be against the winner of the Ernests Gulbis-Marcos Baghdatis match and both could cause real problems while Raonic will likely be awaiting next.


The bottom half of the draw is headed up by Richard Gasquet and I do believe the Frenchman can get to the Final from the section. His biggest threat is likely to come from Philipp Kohlschreiber, the player who won this tournament in 2011.

Both players are capable of performing on the grass courts thanks to their strong first serves and ability to get to the net and volley effectively. However, of the two players, I do think Gasquet has been given the 'kinder' draw on paper and I do think he can ride the momentum of a solid performance in Paris into this tournament.


Even though Federer is the most likely winner of the event, I don't feel comfortable including him in my staking plan this week as he does have some potentially very tough matches to get through. Instead, I will just have an interest in Richard Gasquet to at least get to the Final.


MY PICKS: Sam Querrey @ 29.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Richard Gasquet @ 5.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)


French Open Daily Picks: 20-15, + 9.18 Units (68 Units Staked, + 13.5% Yield)
French Open Outright Picks: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.36 Units (658 Units Staked, + 3.24% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

French Open Outright Picks 2013

I don't know what it is- is the cool looking clay courts, is it the longer rallies, but I love the French Open and am very much looking forward to visiting the tournament for the first time next week.

I booked tickets to go on the first Friday of the tournament, Third Round day, and even the disappointment of both Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Murray missing out was ended when a draw of huge potential was made.

Personally, I don't see a lot of value left in the Women's draw as Serena Williams looks the pick after being given a good chance to go all the way to her third clay court title in succession. However, while Serena is certainly the pick in my mind, her poor record at the French Open is tough to ignore even if I can't see who will beat her before the Final.

Still, I didn't see Virginie Razzano beating Serena in the First Round last season so the World Number 1's odds on quotes to win here look poor value even if I do think she is the most likely winner.

Men's Draw

First Quarter

At the start of the tournament, I only considered two players as genuine contenders to win the title here at Roland Garros and the Gods have not been kind enough to split those players. Novak Djokovic is the Number 1 seed here and is the player I think is capable of breaking the Rafael Nadal strangle-hold on the French Open.

It isn't the worst draw in the world for Djokovic although he has been given the potentially awkward Third Round match against Grigor Dimitrov- however, while the Bulgarian has certainly improved his game, I am not sure he is ready to knock off one of the top players in a best of five set match.

Players like Tommy Haas and John Isner could be tough to play if they are on their game, but I would fancy Djokovic to beat either of those and I am pretty confident the World Number 1 will be in the Semi Final from this section.

Semi Final Prediction: Novak Djokovic after a tough Third Round win over Grigor Dimitrov

Second Quarter

While Novak Djokovic was one of my two contenders to win this title, the other is of course Rafael Nadal, a man coming into his first Grand Slam tournament since Wimbledon last June. Nadal has won the big two clay court events leading into Roland Garros and his record at the French Open speaks for itself.

I look at his section of the draw and I really don't see who is going to beat Nadal on a clay court in a best of five set match. In fact, I would be a little surprised if Nadal even dropped a set ahead of the Semi Final and I do believe the Spaniard comes through this section with little to no trouble at all.

Prediction: No need to waste time- this is Rafael Nadal's Quarter of the draw.

Third Quarter

Andy Murray's absence from the Tour means David Ferrer is the highest seed in this quarter of the draw, although the likes of Tomas Berdych will certainly have something to say about that.

This is probably the most dangerous section for some of the top seeds as the likes of Nicolas Almagro, Milos Raonic and the in-form Ernests Gulbis are all in the quarter and I do think Tomas Berdych will do very well to reach the Quarter Final.

Out of Ferrer and Berdych, I certainly think Ferrer has the 'easier' path and I think there is the potential for Gulbis to reach the Quarter Final, especially if he can knock off Berdych in a potential Second Round meeting.

The top half of this quarter has a lot of uncertainty and I do believe that is why David Ferrer will be able to outlast his rivals in the section. The Spaniard seems to have a more comfortable path to a Quarter Final than anyone else and he should be able to outlast anyone he faces in that Round.

Prediction: David Ferrer, although Ernests Gulbis could be the surprise package

Fourth Quarter

The main main in the final section of the draw is a former winner at Roland Garros and the 17 time Grand Slam Champion Roger Federer. There is no way Federer could have picked a better draw for himself than the one he has here, and he has a decent path through to a Quarter Final, barring a potential Third Round match against Julien Benneteau.

The Frenchman has given Federer plenty of problems in the past, including a win earlier this season, although I would fancy the Number 2 seed to beat him on the slower courts and more comfortably than people would initially imagine.

At that point, it could get a lot tougher for Federer as he is likely to face his toughest challenge of the tournament with either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic and Juan Monaco potential opponents.

All three of those players have doubts surrounding their form, even though Monaco won a weak ATP event at Dusseldorf last week, but the biggest concern for Federer would be facing the mercurial Tsonga.

Last season, we saw Tsonga push Novak Djokovic all the way here at Roland Garros and he certainly has the big game that can make Federer extremely uncomfortable at times. That would be the biggest test for the World Number 2 before the Semi Finals in my opinion, but there is no guarantee that Tsonga will make it to the Quarter Final.

Prediction: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be an awkward Quarter Final opponent, but I think Roger Federer will get through to the Semi Final.

Winner

So where do I think the winner is coming from? I think it is hard to see anyone but the winner of the Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal Semi Final as the winner of the tournament, although there will be some players in the bottom half of the draw hoping the loser of the Semi Final will extract everything out of the winner.

I believe Novak Djokovic has the kryptonite to beat Rafael Nadal on the clay courts- granted, Nadal won three in a row before Monte Carlo this season, including in the Final here last season, but Djokovic has the game to make life awkward for Nadal and that is why I think the World Number 1 will beat him if they play.

While I will take Djokovic to win the tournament, I think it is also wise to take Roger Federer with a small each-way interest. Federer is still a very good clay court player, even if he is unlikely to beat the big two.

However, Federer making the Final would give you a small profit and there is also the small chance that he can take advantage of any fatigue that the winner of the Nadal-Djokovic Semi Final is feeling. The potential Quarter Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a concern, but Federer has a dominant record over David Ferrer, his most likely Semi Final opponent. It is a shame that the layers are only offering a third of the price for an each-way pick this time rather than the half odds offers, but that is down to the top heavy nature of the draw.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 3.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Roger Federer @ 10.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)

Tennis Outright Picks (May 20-26)

The back to back Masters tournaments have been completed and the path to the French Open has been set for most of the big names in the Men's and Women's draws.

Rafael Nadal won both tournaments in Madrid and Rome and that has enabled him to move back up to the World Number 4 Ranking and also avoids the possibility of him having to face one of his main rivals as early as the Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. Since losing the Final in Monte Carlo, Nadal has won three straight tournaments and will surely go into the French Open as the favourite to hold on to his crown as the 'King of Clay'.

He dismantled Roger Federer in the Final of Rome and although Federer was positive about his state of mind going into the French Open, I don't consider the 2009 Champion to be a real threat to win the tournament this season. He has failed to win a title this season, the first time he goes into Paris without a title since 2000, and Federer would certainly be a big underdog to beat either Nadal or Novak Djokovic if they meet in the French Open.


The Woman's draw also looks like it will be fairly predictable as Serena Williams continues to dominate all of her rivals. Serena won both the big events in Madrid and Rome and the undisputed World Number 1 has not lost since the Final of Doha back in February.

The French Open has not been kind to Williams in the past, but I would find it tough to look beyond her at the moment. If Serena is surprised, as she was twelve months ago, I would guess Maria Sharapova or Victoria Azarenka are the most likely winners and there aren't too many other players that are in this draw that have shown any form to suggest they can win a Grand Slam title.


The draw for the French Open will be made on Friday with the tournament to begin next Sunday. That means most of the big names are taking a week to get their minds and bodies ready for the two week Grand Slam slog, although there are still four tournaments taking place this week.

I am only making an outright pick from one of those events and I couldn't make a strong case for any player in the other events taking place this week.


ATP Dusseldorf
This is the first time that the tournament in Dusseldorf is in a traditional form as it was the home of the World Tennis Team Championships in previous seasons. The two home players, Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber will both feel they can win this inaugural tournament, but they are both in the tougher bottom half of the draw.

Both the German players are in the top three of the outright markets this week, but I think it could make more sense to back Juan Monaco, the player splitting the two home players in the market.

Monaco hasn't had the best of seasons, but he has shown some signs of getting back to form in recent weeks. The clay courts remain Monaco's best surface and he has been beaten in close matches by players that have gone on to show some very good form in his last two tournaments.

This time, Monaco is given a decent start to the tournament here with a bye through to the Second Round and then facing an opponent that he would be a big favourite. The Quarter Final could pose problems if he goes up against Nikolay Davydenko, a player that has a strong head to head record against Monaco and is certainly capable of outhitting him off the ground.

However, if Monaco can get through that test, he can go all the way at a venue where he previously won with Argentina in 2010. I do think Monaco is worth having a small interest in to win the event here this week at the prices available.


MY PICKS: Juan Monaco @ 5.00 Bwin (1 Unit)


Rome Picks: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 24.48 Units (569 Units Staked, + 4.30% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks Madrid (May 4-12)

The next month of the tennis season sees a lot of crossover tournaments as the build of the second Grand Slam of the season takes centre stage.

That means both the WTA and ATP Tours are heading to Madrid this week, Rome next week and then beginning the French Open in three weeks time. In between Rome and Roland Garros, there are a couple of smaller tournaments but the next month is full of a lot of Ranking points and big tournaments to be won.

Unsurprisingly, the bigger the tournaments, the more famous names are in the draw and it is good to see an ATP draw where all of the big four are in action. The players will all be happy to see Madrid has returned to the more natural clay courts after the experiment with the blue clay twelve months ago saw a lot of complaints. The bounce and the surface just didn't work and the organisers here took the threat of big names withdrawing seriously enough to go back to basics.


We also saw the sad news this week that Brad Drewett passed away- he did a lot of good work to improve the ATP Tour which you can read about here


Last week I didn't make too many picks from the tennis tournaments in Portugal and Germany simply because the layers were spending too much time creating the markets for the matches and I was fairly content with the two outright picks I had made at the beginning of the week.

While the few picks I did make had ended with a slight loss, both Philipp Kohlschreiber and David Ferrer have reached their respective Finals and that has already resulted in a slight profit. If both can win, or at least one can win, it will be another profitable week ahead of this month.

I'll update the season tally on the Monday thread for picks once the two Finals in Germany and Portugal have been concluded on Sunday.


ATP Madrid
The Masters 1000 Tournaments have been dominated by the big four players on the ATP Tour and it is hard to see beyond Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer as the most likely winner. I would rule out Andy Murray on this surface at the moment too, but the other three names are the most likely winners of the tournament here in Madrid.

The draw has separated Djokovic and Nadal until the Final and a repeat of the Monte Carlo Final from last month is very much on the cards in my opinion. Those two players look head and shoulders the best on the clay court currently on the Tour and I would be surprised if either is beaten before the Final this week.

When you take a look at the draw, it does seem that Rafael Nadal has been given the kinder path to the Final of the top two in the market. The likes of Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer are tough competitors on the clay courts, but Nadal would more than expect himself to get through those matches before the Semi Final.

Unless you have been living in a cave over the last ten years, you know Nadal would be a big favourite to beat Roger Federer in any potential Semi Final, while there is no guarantee as to how Federer is going to be playing having had around six weeks off from the Tour.

Federer fans will point to the fact that one of his two wins on the clay courts against Nadal has come in Madrid, but that also came after the Spaniard had been through hell to get past Djokovic in the Semi Final back in 2009 and I would back Nadal to be too good at this point in their careers.


On the other hand, Djokovic will have to be on his game from the very beginning of the tournament with his first match likely to be against Grigor Dimitrov- the Bulgarian youngster is certainly starting to feel more comfortable with the big names and he was unfortunate not to surprise Nadal at the Monte Carlo Masters.

Dimitrov has also pushed Djokovic and Murray this year in different tournaments, although coming up short in both matches, but that is a tough start to the tournament for the Number 1 seed.

Even coming through that match would see Djokovic having to face Stanislas Wawrinka and then Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just to get through to any potential Semi Final and it is a tough path through the draw.

Djokovic would likely face either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the last four and while I think he would win that Semi Final, you can appreciate it is a far tougher draw than the Number 5 seeded Rafael Nadal has received.


I do believe that the clay court tournaments will be split up by Djokovic and Nadal, but the draw here favours the Spaniard and he will be my choice to win this tournament.


WTA Madrid
In a similar way as the ATP Tour big tournaments, you immediately look to Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams when the draw is made for a big WTA event.

This time around, it is Williams and Azarenka that have been placed in the same half of the draw and that should open the door for Sharapova to continue her recent successes on the clay courts, a real surprise considering her early struggles on the surface.


Sharapova won the recent big tournament in Stuttgart and I look at her half of the draw and I don't foresee too many problems and hurdles for her to overcome. I would expect her to be too strong for Petra Kvitova, her most likely challenger before the Semi Final, and by that time the Russian player will be comfortable with her surroundings.

At the Semi Final stage, she would likely face the winner of the Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska clash, but Sharapova would be considered a big favourite to beat either of those players.


The top half of the draw sees the return of Victoria Azarenka from an ankle injury which has seen her fail to play a competitive match on the Tour since being forced out at Indian Wells. The lack of competitive tennis could be exposed as early as the First Round when she takes on Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the winner of the Portugal Open last week.

It doesn't get much easier for Azarenka as the likes of Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci are in her quarter of the draw and she might not be back to something of her best until the tournaments in Rome and the French Open.

That should also open the door for the World Number 1 Serena Williams to come out of the top half of the draw having won this tournament a year ago and also winning in Charleston last month. Williams will get a chance to play her way into the tournament with a qualifier first up and I wouldn't expect too many early problems, perhaps when she is most vulnerable in the draw.

One danger for Serena is the presence of Na Li, the former French Open Champion and a player that is very comfortable on the clay courts. While Li hasn't quite been able to get the better of Williams in recent matches, she has always given the American a tough time despite the lop-sided head to head.


However, it wouldn't be a surprise if Serena is the player that gets through that potentially awkward match with Na Li and is then able to get back to the Final from twelve months ago. The clay courts are definitely still where Serena Williams is most vulnerable, but the draw seems to be on her side here and I think she will come through and win the tournament.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams @ 3.75 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 29-May 5)

We are now less than a month away from the French Open so this week is the last one where the main players on both Tours decide to take off. After this, both Tours head to Madrid and Rome for the big tournaments at Masters and Premier level and then there will be just the eight days until the French Open will begin.

This week we have a joint tournament taking place in Portugal and another ATP event in Munich.

ATP Portugal Open

The Number 1 seed in at this tournament is David Ferrer and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 4 in the field that has come together for the Portugal Open this season. He was surprisingly beaten in his first match at the Barcelona Open last week against Dmitry Tursunov, but David Ferrer is certainly very capable of running some form together as proven by his title win in Buenos Aires earlier this season.

The draw seems to be kind to Ferrer here as he receives a bye in the First Round thanks to being one of the top four seeds here in Portugal and I don't think he will be too worried by any of the names in the top half.

The biggest danger may just be Tommy Robredo in the top half of the draw, but Ferrer has been too good for his veteran compatriot over the last twelve months and I would back the World Number 4 to be too battle hardened and consistent for Robredo.

I am not surprised that Stanislas Wawrinka is considered the second favourite, but Ferrer has a solid head to head record against him and I would back the Spaniard in that one. Other names in the bottom half like Fabio Fognini and Horacio Zeballos have had success on the clay courts, but neither would feel they have a favourable match up with Ferrer the Number 1 seed has to be the pick at odds against in this field.


ATP Munich
One of the more open tournaments in recent times takes place in Munich and it says a lot that the field is priced at 5.50 or better. There are plenty of big names in the draw and I have a feeling that backing a home favourite to come through the draw may pay dividends this week.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this event twice already in his career, including last season, and he has reached at least the Quarter Final in five of his last six appearances here. The German is in the better half of the draw here and receives a bye in the First Round which may give him enough of an edge to come through the top half.

His main rivals are Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic, but there are some doubts about the chances of both of those players and Kohlschreiber looks the most likely to take advantage of those doubts.


The bottom half of the draw looks a lot more loaded with the likes of Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic all involved in the section. Cilic has enjoyed a lot of success in the tournament without quite winning it, but this is a really tough half of the draw and I think taking Kohlschreiber each way is the best way to be involved in this tournament.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)


Daily Picks: 10-5, + 8.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 29.21% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 41.28 Units (517 Units Staked, + 7.98% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 22-28)

The tournament in Monte Carlo is in the books and for the first time in over eight years, the engraver for the trophy will have to learn the spelling of a name other than Rafael Nadal.

It was a surprise that Novak Djokovic was able to knock off Nadal in the sense that his ankle had continued giving him trouble for much of the week, although he did say he was feeling better towards the back end of the week.

The win is a big statement ahead of the French Open, which will begin in a little over a month from now, and I think it is perfectly acceptable to declare Djokovic as the favourite for that title. He was close to winning at Roland Garros last season and I do think he is playing much more solid tennis at this moment in time, although the draw is going to be key with Rafael Nadal being a likely Number 5 seed at that tournament.

If Djokovic can avoid Nadal and be paired with David Ferrer in one half of the draw at the French Open, I would make him a big favourite to go all the way and complete the career Grand Slam. There are some dangerous players as lower seeds, like Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych, but Djokovic should be able to outlast them over a best of five set match and barring a surprise the World Number 1 would likely be in the Final.

Nadal has said at his press conference that he is not worried about this as it is just one loss, but Djokovic had begun to get the better of him in Masters tournaments on the clay ahead of the injury to Nadal last Summer. With the way things are going, I would make the Serb the favourite to take the title home at Roland Garros ahead of the draw.


The picks were not in great form last week and it has proved to be the worst week of the 2013 season so far as some luck was missing and there were just some simply bad picks. However, it remains a solid start to the season as the Tours move on to Barcelona, Bucharest, Stuttgart and Marrakesh.

This week I will only be making the one outright pick from the tournament at Stuttgart as I feel there are too many unanswered questions for me to take anyone else. The event in Barcelona is dominated at the head of the market by Rafael Nadal and I do think he will win that event without any of the top three players involved, while in Bucharest I have question marks around all of the top contenders for the title.


WTA Stuttgart
This is one of the Premier events on the WTA Tour so it is no surprise to see seven of the top ten in the World Rankings all taking part here. The Number 1 seed is Maria Sharapova, but I am still not convinced the Russian should be a short favourite on the clay courts despite her stellar season last year.

While she is in the top half of the draw, I am going to look at the bottom half for a potential winner and I look at Petra Kvitova as being someone who could possibly do that after reaching a Final on the surface already in 2013.

The one big roadblock to the Final is a potential Quarter Final against Na Li, a player that is a former winner at Roland Garros, although this is her first tournament on the clay courts this season. However, despite the successes that Li has had on the clay courts in the last few seasons, it is telling that she hasn't found her best form here in Stuttgart having been a loser in the Second Round twice and Quarter Final twice in the last four visits here.

With that in mind, it could open the door for Kvitova to move through the draw and I would favour her to beat Sara Errani or Samantha Stosur in a potential Semi Final meeting. My only real issue with Kvitova these days is she can be erratic and is vulnerable early in the draw, but she certainly looks an each-way interest at 12.00 being offered and does look a lively contender to take the title home.


MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova @ 12.00 Bet 365 (1 Unit E/W)


Daily Picks: 6-11, - 11.72 Units (34 Units Staked, - 34.47% Yield)

Season 2013: + 35.10 Units (487 Units Staked, + 7.21% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 8-14)

So we have got through the Davis Cup Quarter Finals and the early hard court part of the season and one of my favourite periods in the tennis season will begin this week- that's right, it is time for clay court action.

This is a quiet week in terms of big names as most will be saving themselves for the main run towards the French Open- the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will certainly include Monte Carlo in their scheduling, which begins next Sunday, while the WTA Tour has had a couple of their premier events back to back and so the main players that will be competing for the French Open title will not be in action this week.

All of this doesn't mean we can't learn anything from the tournaments taking place in Morocco, Poland and the United States and I think the events do provide some interest ahead of the first clay court Masters of the season.


ATP Morocco
This week we have two defending Champions in Morocco as Pablo Andujar looks to make it three in a row at this tournament, while the Number 1 seeded Stanislas Wawrinka returns to the event for the first time since winning it in 2010 in his first time in Morocco.

Stanislas Wawrinka certainly looks the player to beat this week and it is unsurprising that he has been set as the favourite considering how kind the draw has been for him. Even his absence since Indian Wells isn't really a worry as he did the same last season before reaching the Quarter Final at the Monte Carlo Masters.

The Swiss Number 2 certainly is very comfortable on the clay courts and has already reached the Final of an event on the surface earlier this season, although falling short against David Ferrer. He has a 64-31 on the clay courts, at ATP Main Tour level, in the last five seasons and he does look head and shoulders the best player in his half of the draw, after receiving a bye in the First Round.

I think Jurgen Melzer has shown a mini-resurgence in the last couple of tournaments he has played so he could pose problems as a possible Semi Final opponent, but the Austrian has not performed at his best on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons so I would fancy Wawrinka, with some matches under his belt, at that stage.

The big names on the other side of the draw to look out for this week are Kevin Anderson and Pablo Andujar, but I think there could be some benefit in backing Martin Klizan to find some form and perhaps make it through to the Final.

Klizan is the Number 3 seed here, but four consecutive losses on the Tour means he is a big outsider to win the tournament, but the Slovakian has certainly showed his ability on the clay courts over the last twelve months and could surprise. There is no doubt that he hasn't got the best draw with matches against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Robin Haase to come before any Semi Final against one of the other two big names in his half of the draw, but Klizan did win four Challenger tournaments on this surface last season as well as reaching the Final of another.

I will be honest and say that Klizan hasn't transferred that kind of form onto the Main Tour events on the clay courts just yet, but I think he is worth a small interest to find a bit of a run here.


ATP Houston
You can sometimes tell how good a field is by looking at the weakest seed in the draw and this week it is Michael Russell, although there are still some quality names in the draw.

However, it does mean that the top of the outright market is dominated by five players and I would be surprised if the winner of the tournament comes from outside of Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Juan Monaco or John Isner.

Personally I can't buy Juan Monaco's chances of defending his crown from last season in the form he has been to open up 2013, including a heavy loss in the Davis Cup on Sunday against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, although Monaco is certainly in the best Quarter of the draw.

In my mind, the Number 1 seed, Nicolas Almagro is the one most likely to win this tournament as he makes his first appearance here in Houston, even though the clay courts here tend to play faster than they do in Europe. However, as I have mentioned before, Almagro certainly has the style of play that can be transferred from the clay courts to the faster surfaces so I don't imagine he will be hindered as much as other players might be.

Almagro certainly has a tough opening match against the winner of the Gael Monfils-James Blake clash, but I would favour him to beat either on the clay, while the Spaniard has a strong winning record against Sam Querrey who is a potential Semi Final opponent.

One player that would certainly have been an awkward opponent a few months ago would have been Fernando Verdasco, but he has not been himself in recent weeks as he is supposedly suffering from some kind of neck issue. I would be surprised if Verdasco could move through to the Semi Final to play Almagro with the lack of form he has displayed, so backing the top seed and favourite will be my pick from this tournament.


MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka @ 3.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Martin Klizan @ 21.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Nicolas Almagro @ 3.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)



Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.54 Units (6 Units Staked, + 25.67% Yield)

Season 2013: + 48.57 Units (445 Units Staked, + 10.91% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks Miami 2013 (March 19-31)

The first Masters tournament of the season has really got the appetite going for more as far as I am concerned because we have finally seen Juan Martin Del Potro return to something like the form that took him to the US Open title back in 2009 and also reach the Final of the End of Year Championship in the same season.

It is nice to see someone outside of the top four reach the Final here, particularly as he beat Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic along the way, the current two best players in the Men's game.

Coming up a little short against Rafael Nadal was no surprise considering the effort that Del Potro had to put in to reach the Final, but the Spaniard's return was a real surprise- after all the complaints surrounding his issues with hard courts, I didn't expect Nadal to run through the draw as he did, even if he didn't face the real challengers in Murray and Djokovic.

Nadal played well and is certainly going to get back to his position in the World Rankings, but I am not yet convinced that he is ready to beat the likes of Murray and Djokovic, even though we are next going to see him on his beloved clay courts. It is no real surprise that Nadal has chosen to miss the event in Miami to give him suitable rest before the clay court season begins in mid-April.


Another issue that seemed to be at the forefront on people's minds was the continued absence of the Williams sisters at Indian Wells- personally, I think the tournament needs them more than they need this event and I don't think they should turn up if they say what happened back in 2001 was true. No one has disputed those events and I think both Venus and Serena have every right to miss the tournament here.


The picks were mixed from Indian Wells with a lot of profit from the daily picks being taken away by the outright picks. However, at least it was another profitable tournament and keeps the season ticking over nicely.

At the end of the day, I am not silly enough to think that every tournament is going to bring in huge yields, but I do think every profitable tournament will contribute to another successful season. The last two seasons have proved that to be the case, despite some less than stellar weeks, so I am happy with the event at Indian Wells and hope Miami can continue the upward trend that followed an average Australian Open.


WTA Miami
The Women's event is loaded with every big name you can think of and I am not surprised that it is Serena Williams that leads the outright markets.

In a weird twist, last season was the first time Serena had played in Miami since 2009 and she was beaten in the Quarter Final by Caroline Wozniacki. However, this has been an event that Williams has found very much to her liking in the past, especially with her outside interests in Miami, and I can see her returning to the winners' roll in this one. Before last season, Serena had reach the Final in 6 of her previous 7 appearances in Miami and had won the tournament 5 times, although the last of those was back in 2008.

I don't see too many problems for Serena early in the draw, when she is perhaps most vulnerable, and I would expect her to overturn the result from twelve months ago if she met Caroline Wozniacki in the Quarter Final again.

The likes of Petra Kvitova, Agnieszka Radwanska and her Australian Open conqueror Sloane Stephens are potential Semi Final threats to Serena, but I would expect the World Number 1 to be battle hardened by then and would favour her to beat all of those players.


The other half of the draw is headed by Victoria Azarenka, but there are serious doubts as to whether the current Australian Open Champion will take part having withdrawn with an ankle issue from the tournament last week at Indian Wells.

Instead, it would probably make more sense to keep Maria Sharapova in the staking plan as she has reached the Final here in Miami in each of the last two seasons. Some may be wary as Sharapova won in Indian Wells last week, but she will have a few days to rest and also reached back to back Finals (without winning either) last season.

Looking through this half of the draw, the names don't exactly stand out as being capable of beating the Russian, especially if Azarenka is not taking part. I expect Sharapova will be able to deal with Maria Kirilenko again and I don't like Sara Errani's match up against her.

Others like Angelique Kerber always seem to threaten to show and then collapse in the most obscure way so I'll be very boring and keep the big two in the market together.


ATP Miami
With both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal missing the tournament here in Miami, it is no real surprise to see the World Number 1 and 3 time winner of the event here, Novak Djokovic, being priced as the short favourite to win the title again.

The last two seasons has seen Djokovic win the tournament and when you look at his half of the draw, it is tough to imagine him being defeated before the Final.

Juan Martin Del Potro is the potential Semi Final opponent for a second Masters in a row, but it is hard to gauge how the big man is feeling following the taxing exploits of last week. While the early Rounds are not expected to cause too many problems, a potential Quarter Final against David Ferrer would be an altogether more difficult task and I think Del Potro is plenty short at 9.00 in the outright market.

Some may wonder if the Spaniard Ferrer will make it to the Semi Final after being defeated early in Indian Wells, but that has been something of a routine for him. However, he has twice reached the Semi Final here in the past and also reached the Quarter Final last season, beating Del Potro on the way, before falling to Djokovic.

Ferrer is likely to have a much more winnable match to start his tournament here this week rather than facing a big serving machine like Kevin Anderson and I think he can build ahead of steam to reach the Semi Final where Djokovic is expected to be too strong again.


While it is no surprise to see Djokovic as a short favourite without Nadal and Federer, it is also no surprise that Andy Murray is the second favourite in the market. However, I can't back the British Number 1 here with what looks a tough draw to negotiate right from the off.

Facing the likes of Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov will be tough for Murray and it doesn't get much easier for him. In a normal one-off match, I would favour Murray to get through his section of the draw 7 or 8 out of 10 attempts, but those little doubts has me looking to see if I can oppose him with anyone.

One man who had a good tournament last week, but fell a little short, was Tomas Berdych and I think it could be worth backing the big man to at least reach the Final.

I look at his section and I don't see too many problems for Berdych ahead of the potential Semi Final with Murray, although Milos Raonic could be the biggest threat.

The likes of Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco are not in great form, while Berdych disposed of Richard Gasquet fairly comfortably at Indian Wells last week. However, Berdych was beaten by Raonic in their sole meeting and I think the 100-1 on the Canadian is a huge price.

At the moment, I am not convinced that Raonic has added enough to his game outside of the big serve, but he is capable of runs in North America and has been placed in a section where he could beat Berdych in the Fourth Round and really open up the whole draw for himself. That would be the case if Murray goes out early so I think a small each-way interest in both Berdych and Raonic have to be taken.


MY PICKS: Serena Williams @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (3 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic @ 1.83 Bet Victor (6 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 17.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Milos Raonic @ 101.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W)


Daily Picks: 21-11, + 19.92 Units (63 Units Staked, + 31.62% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-5, - 13 Units (13 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)


Season 2013: + 42.99 Units (370 Units Staked, + 11.62% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 6-17)

The first thought I had at the end of last week was 'he's back'... Rafael Nadal played some wonderful tennis in the last couple of matches against Nicolas Almagro and in particular against David Ferrer as he proved that he is feeling healthy and will find his best tennis in time to defend his title at the French Open.

It was great news that Nadal also decided to head to Indian Wells for the first Masters of the season considering many thought he would take a month off and only return when the Tour moves on to the European clay court season. However, it was great to hear Nadal talking about joining the Tour as it moves through a couple of hard court tournaments in the United States.

That doesn't mean I am expecting big things from Nadal immediately as this is the first tournament he will enter alongside the absolute cream of the Men's game. It is a positive sign that Nadal feels his knee is in a position to compete on the hard courts, but I'd be surprised if he gets beyond the Quarter Final regardless of the draw as he will likely have to play one of the top three that he has faced throughout his career at the business end of Grand Slams.

I'll be interested to see how Nadal feels after a couple of matches on the hard courts, but he did play an exhibition on the surface in a losing effort against Juan Martin Del Potro and I think we will see the Spaniard get back to something close to his best by the time the French Open comes around.

Novak Djokovic, Sara Errani and Ernests Gulbis were other key winners of events in the past week and the one that disappointed me the most was the last of those as I had tipped him to come through the qualifiers and possibly go all the way, but the layers hadn't put any prices up for the outright markets.


Other than the disappointment around Gulbis, it was a pretty standard week last time out after the positive results from the previous three weeks. David Ferrer was my one outright pick and his challenge was dismissed in the Final by Rafael Nadal, while the daily picks provided the smallest of profits. Overall, it was a slight loss on the week, but nothing major to be concerned about.


WTA Indian Wells
While this is one of the premier events on the WTA Tour, it is one that will not be featuring Serena Williams or Venus Williams as Indian Wells remains a tournament they choose to by-pass after some issues they had there a few seasons ago.

That leaves Victoria Azarenka as the absolute favourite to win the tournament and that really is not surprising considering her form to open 2013 and her general success over the last 14 months.

Azarenka did miss out a couple of weeks ago in Dubai as she was recovering from her exploits in Doha and I do think she will be in good shape to defend her title from a year ago. The draw has been very kind to her early on and I would think she can get through to any Quarter Final without too many problems.

One potential player that could have upset the apple-cart on some recent showings is Caroline Wozniacki but she had a poor loss last week and there are some rumours that she is having a few personal problems in her relationship with Rory McIlroy. If she isn't focused, then Victoria Azarenka should be a Semi Finalist without too many problems.

No doubt there are some big names that could face the World Number 2 in the Semi Final with the likes of Angelique Kerber, Sam Stosur, Mona Barthel and Ana Ivanovic as potential opponents, but none of those are playing at the level of Azarenka right now.


With the way the draw has panned out, there is every chance we could see a repeat of the Final of twelve months ago as Maria Sharapova is the Number 2 seed her in the absence of Serena Williams. Sharapova really couldn't have asked for a much better route to the Semi Final with a number of the potential opponents she can play in her section not really having the power to trouble the Russian consistently.

One player that may give Sharapova problems is Mona Barthel, but she has too often shown inconsistent form to get through matches when she isn't playing at her best and there is every chance the German won't get through to any potential Quarter Final.

However, I think the biggest danger to a repeat Final from last season is the in-form Petra Kvitova who won the tournament in Dubai where she showed the form that had a lot of people believing she was the player most likely to kick on in the Women's game.

Kvitova also pushed Serena Williams all the way in Doha and I think she will be able to grab another win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the Quarter Final and become the player most likely to meet Sharapova in the Semi Final.


The problem for the Women's game at the moment is that there aren't too many players that are showing the form to suggest they can win the big tournaments and the absence of Serena Williams has also skewed the tournament slightly.

Victoria Azarenka is main beneficiary as she seems to have a clear path through to the Final to retain her title and I think she is worth backing in the outright market. The World Number 2 and Number 1 seed here will be my main pick for the tournament, but I also think there is a good reason to take Petra Kvitova on the each-way markets to make it to the Final from the bottom half.

Kvitova has been playing some excellent tennis over the last three weeks and has finally showed the form that everyone knows she can reach. She doesn't have the best head to head against Maria Sharapova, losing the last 3 matches they have contested against one another, but Kvitova has certainly shown enough in the last month to think she can break that little run.


ATP Indian Wells Masters
It is the first time since Wimbledon that the 'big four' players are all in action at the same tournament and the first thing to notice is that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been scheduled to meet in the Quarter Final.

That could be important news for Andy Murray as he has a chance to move into the World Number 2 Ranking if he wins this tournament and Federer fails to make the Final. However, he has been placed in the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic and it will be tough for the British player to make it past an in-form World Number 1.

The top half of the draw has a number of big name players that can be very dangerous as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic certainly capable of pushing the big names at the very least. However, I would suggest that both Djokovic and Murray will be too good, although I couldn't fully trust the latter after some poor performances in these early Masters tournaments over the last couple of seasons.


The bottom half of the draw is highlighted by the potential Quarter Final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but both will need to put a couple of big wins in place to get there. Federer could get the chance to avenge his loss in Rotterdam as he could potentially face Julien Benneteau and the dangerous John Isner before the Quarter Finals.

Obviously the biggest fight Nadal has on his hands is getting through the tournament without any new issues with his knee. The likes of Janko Tipsarevic have been a little out of form, while Mikhail Youzhny is not the player of old that used to trouble Nadal so much. With that in mind, the Spaniard does have the easier path to the Quarter Finals, but doubts about his ability to complete a hard court tournament would put off some backers.

The other side of the bottom half has the in-form Tomas Berdych and he will be looking to reach his third Final in a row, although he did fall short in Marseille and Dubai. The Czech player was in good form at those events, but I am a little concerned that he hasn't shown his best at Indian Wells in the past.

Berdych should get through his early matches without too many issues, but potential matches against Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer will be incredibly tough matches to negotiate. Ferrer in particularly has been a match up nightmare for Berdych on all surfaces, but the Spaniard has only ever reached one Quarter Final in the past here and may find the change from clay courts to the hard courts a little tough to negotiate.

A potential clash with Kevin Anderson in the Second Round could be tough for Ferrer and may just open the door for Berdych to make a run.


The problem for the Men's game at the moment is that there hasn't been too many winners of the top events outside of the usual suspects and that means the prices are skewed to the top four players. It says quite a lot about the Men's tournaments that someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro has failed to ever win a Masters tournament.

Novak Djokovic looks really short in the market considering the presence of Andy Murray in the section, but the draw looks a good one for him and Murray has been an early loser at this event the last couple of seasons. Djokovic has won 2 of the last 5 tournaments in Indian Wells and he was unlucky to lose in the Semi Final last season and I do think he is worth keeping on-side here considering his start to the 2013 season.

Another couple of players worth backing here are Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych from the bottom half of the draw and I'll have an interest in them each-way. The latter has been in good form and looks like he has been rewarded with a nice draw, while I still think Roger Federer is going to be too strong for an undercooked Rafael Nadal.

Federer is the defending Champion here and has won the event four times, while he is also missing Miami so can focus fully on this tournament. It's not the easiest draw, but I think he showed enough in Dubai to think he can at least get to the Semi Final here and that would make him a dangerous prospect here.

Berdych is in as good form as anyone not called Novak Djokovic and he did reach the Final at the Miami Masters in 2010 to suggest he can put in enough solid performances to possibly reach the Final. David Ferrer's presence is a concern, especially with his record against Berdych, but he has struggled at Indian Wells in the past so the Czech player is another I'll keep on my side this week.


MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka @ 2.50 Blue Square (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 10.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Novak Djokovic @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (4 Units)
Roger Federer @ 6.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych @ 23.00 Stan James (0.5 Units E/W)


Daily Picks: 11-11-1, + 0.60 Units (44 Units Staked, 1.36% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)


Season 2013: + 36.07 Units (294 Units Staked, + 12.27% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units