Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 14th May)

The Rome Masters is into the last of the Quarter Final matches in the ATP event being played in the Italian capital and the two WTA Semi Final matches are scheduled for Thursday as well, although the weather will need to play ball.

It was the weather that changed the momentum of the Casper Ruud eventual win over Karen Khachanov and perhaps prevented the Norwegian from making it 2-0 for the Tennis Picks on Wednesday.

This has still been a decent tournament to add to the earlier positive clay court numbers and that is going to give the pages a boost ahead of the French Open, which is now a little over a week away from beginning at the end of the month.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Retirement at the end of the season has already been announced, but there has to be some second thoughts in the Sorana Cirstea camp having played some of the best tennis of her career.

If the Rankings were released in the morning, Sorana Cirstea would be back at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 21 and she is very much trending towards cracking the top 20 for the first time. The veteran is also at Number 11 in the WTA Race to determine the best players in the world and Sorana Cirstea has upset Aryna Sabalenka during her run to the Semi Final here in Rome.

A confident player is a dangerous player and Cirstea has a very solid 10-2 record on the clay courts in the build up towards the French Open.

However, both losses have been against some of the better clay courters on the WTA Tour and one of those came at the hands of Coco Gauff at the Madrid Masters.

The defending French Open Champion has shown plenty of character to come through three setters in her run in Rome and Coco Gauff has long been very comfortable on the clay courts. This is a surface where a vulnerable second serve is not punished nearly as much as it is on the faster surfaces where recovering breaks of serve can be very difficult against the best players on the Tour.

On the clay courts, Coco Gauff will always feel she has enough quality from the return to neutralise rallies and ultimately break down an opponent and she is playing well on the surface this season. The numbers are not quite as good as the previous two seasons, but Gauff has shown she can dig in and overcome problems and that makes her the right favourite in this match.

Beating Sorana Cirstea in all three previous matches on the Tour, including twice this year, will also give the World Number 4 the confidence to push past this opponent again.

It was the Coco Gauff returning prowess that helped her beat Sorana Cirstea in Madrid and she created five more Break Points on the day.

Sorana Cirstea is playing with confidence and an almost 'nothing to lose' attitude, which makes her dangerous, but Coco Gauff can find those breaks of serve that helps her cover this spread set for this last four contest.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Martin Landaluce: There have been flashes of his ability on the clay courts, but Daniil Medvedev has long stated his dislike for this part of the season and he is never that far from completely losing his temper when things are not panning out as expected. Little form had been shown prior to the arrival in Rome, which is the last big tournament Daniil Medvedev is set to take in before the French Open, but this is one of the clay court events that the World Number 9 has enjoyed.

In his career, Daniil Medvedev has reached one Quarter Final at the French Open and a couple of Fourth Round runs, but he has won the title here in Rome and followed up with back to back Fourth Round appearances.

He has already progressed at least one stage further here in Rome in 2026 and Daniil Medvedev is rightly set as the favourite to get the better of Lucky Loser Martin Landaluce.

The 20 year old is going to take another leap in the World Rankings thanks to his performances in the main draw, but the Spaniard is not the most convincing of clay courters.

In most cases you would expect anyone from his country to be very comfortable on the clay, but Martin Landaluce had a 4-4 record on the surface before winning one Qualifier and losing the other here in Rome. He earned a reprieve with the Lucky Loser spot, and Martin Landaluce has taken full advantage by winning three matches in a row without dropping a set, although this is another step up in level of opponent compared with what the youngster has faced in the main draw.

Martin Landaluce had never beaten a top 100 Ranked player on the clay courts in his career before his three main draw wins here, but none of the opponents beaten have been Ranked higher than Number 47 and so Daniil Medvedev should offer a much tougher challenge.

Confidence in putting a run like this together will make Martin Landaluce dangerous, but his serve can be vulnerable and that has been the main reason he had a 0-8 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface before the last few days.

The expectation is that Daniil Medvedev can exert some pressure with his own serve and the higher Ranked player may have enough to cover this spread set.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: The latter played a Quarter Final that ended after two and a half hours on Wednesday evening and that is going to have an impact on Elina Svitolina, who has lost both previous clay court matches against Iga Swiatek.

The lower Ranked player has produced some very good tennis on the clay, but Swiatek is rounding into the kind of form that has seen her win multiple French Open titles.

The Pole was not pushed at all by Jessica Pegula to continue her incredible form in Rome and that long match played by Elina Svitolina has to be a factor without a day of rest between Quarter and Semi Final.

Covering this kind of spread against Elina Svitolina is always a challenge, but Iga Swiatek would have done that in both previous clay court wins over this opponent.

Energy and intensity should be with Iga Swiatek from early in this contest and she can eventually roll into the Final behind another confident win.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 5-2, + 1.94 Units (7 Units Staked, + 27.71% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 13th May)

The Rome Masters has reached the Quarter Final stage and there are several big names looking to win the first of potentially two big clay titles over the next few weeks.

Jannik Sinner is going to be the man to beat in Paris, but a wide open women's tournament here in Rome and at the French Open looks really interesting and one that will create the sporting drama that fans would all love to see.

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Jessica Pegula: This is already looking like becoming the most productive year on the clay courts for Jessica Pegula who has moved into the Rome Quarter Final and has won nine of the ten matches played on the surface. A couple of those have been against top 20 Ranked opponents, which can only build the confidence, while the Third Round defeat at the Madrid Masters came at the hands of Marta Kostyuk, who eventually won the title in the Spanish capital.

The performances here in Rome are a real benchmark of the kind of successes the World Number 5 can have at the upcoming French Open.

She has reached the Quarter Final out in Paris before, but Jessica Pegula has one other Fourth Round run and so the wins she is putting on the board can only help as she looks to attack what feels like another wide open Grand Slam event.

Beating Iga Swiatek, the four time French Open Champion, would be a real statement of intent from the American.

Jessica Pegula has won four of the last six against Iga Swiatek, but one of those was on the grass courts and the others on hard courts and this will be only the second clay court contest between these highly Ranked players. The one previous occasion came all the way back in 2022 in the French Open Quarter Final and that was won pretty convincingly by Iga Swiatek on her way to a second title in the French capital.

We have yet to see vintage Iga Swiatek on the clay courts in 2026 and her Semi Final defeat in Paris, and the manner in which it ran away from her in the final set, will still be stinging. She has won five of the seven clay court matches played this season and Swiatek has produced very strong numbers, but a defeat to the World Number 9 Mirra Andreeva in Stuttgart suggests there is still a vulnerability about one of the favourites to win the next Grand Slam title.

This is something of a 'prove it' match for Swiatek, who will be keen to win the Rome title and just make a statement to her main rivals.

She is certainly the stronger return player on this surface and that is so important in clay matches, but the Iga Swiatek serve is to be respected and that should give her a chance to turn things around in the recent head to head.

Nothing is ever easy when facing a battler like Jessica Pegula, but the quality and confidence of Iga Swiatek on this surface should pay dividends at key moments within the sets.

The World Number 3 looks like a real potential winner at the French Open and she can be backed to make it through to the Semi Final in Rome with a big performance.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The hopes of winning a Grand Slam title remain high for Casper Ruud and his team, and the French Open may be the one tournament where he has his best opportunity.

The performances on the clay courts have remained strong and Casper Ruud is having a very strong run in the Rome Masters, which is laying a solid foundation for what can be achieved in the French capital. Not only has Casper Ruud won all three matches in the tournament, but he has done so in very strong fashion and wins over the likes of Jiri Lehecka and Lorenzo Musetti will have given Ruud a huge amount of confidence.

Next up is a Quarter Final against Karen Khachanov, who has had a much more battling run into this Round of the tournament.

In the past the World Number 15 has proven to be a solid competitor on the clay courts, and Karen Khachanov has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open twice. There had been little form produced before the Rome Masters as Khachanov had lost three of four clay court matches played, but three wins in a row will have rebuilt the confidence and this is a dangerous player when at his best.

The serve can be a big weapon for Karen Khachanov and he will need to employ that shot at a high level to just contain the threat coming from the other side of the net.

Out of the two players, Casper Ruud has been the happier return player on this surface of the two players contesting this Quarter Final and that may put the World Number 25 in a position to win the match and cover the spread set.

That slightly superior returning has been the key to Casper Ruud winning two of the three previous matches played between the players, although the most recent was won by Karen Khachanov last year on a North American hard court in the build towards the US Open.

The one sole clay court meeting took place in Rome in 2020 and was won by Casper Ruud in a back and forth battle- that was a tournament played in September, rather than May, and the difference in the conditions has to be noted.

However, the performances over the last several days suggest Casper Ruud is still playing well enough to earn another clay court win over Karen Khachanov. The spread is going to be tougher to deal with, but Ruud has looked very good at this event and that kind of level may be high enough to cover this handicap line.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 William Hill (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 4-1, + 2.28 Units (5 Units Staked, + 45.60% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2026 (Sunday 10th May)

After a decent start to the clay court season, the decision had been made to miss the Madrid Masters and resume Tennis Picks at the Rome Masters in the last big event before the French Open.

There have already been some upsets in the early days at this tournament, but Jannik Sinner will be heading to Paris as the player to beat on the Men's side of the draw.

We could have another wide open second Grand Slam as far as the WTA players are concerned, but this is the last chance to lay down a marker for Paris with some big names still fighting through the draw.

The season totals have been updated below and there are two selections from the Sunday tennis in the Italian capital.

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The first point you have to make is that the home player is not going to lose this match to Iga Swiatek having won a single game, as was the case right here in Rome last year. That was a devastating Second Round performance from the multiple time French Open Champion, but Elisabetta Cocciaretto may be more prepared by what she is going to be facing and will be looking to use the home crowd to push her forward.

There has not been a lot of positive clay court form to call upon, but a couple of wins in the main draw in Rome will have given Cocciaretto some belief, even if she is well aware that this is a big step upwards in terms of level of opponent.

Iga Swiatek will go into the French Open as one of the favourites, but she will be looking for a strong run in Rome after some inconsistent results of her own during this portion of the Tour.

Three wins and two losses on the clay courts may mean Iga Swiatek is in danger of heading to Paris a little undercooked, although the numbers have been solid and some of her main rivals at the next Grand Slam have also had their issues.

The serve is always a strong part of the Iga Swiatek game- if she is serving well, the rest of her tennis seems to flow and the numbers in the five clay court matches this season have been decent enough. The World Number 3 has also been having strong success on her return in the limited sample of matches played and Iga Swiatek may still have enough to cover this spread, even if it is not expected to be as one-sided as when these two players met last year.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto did take a set from Jessica Pegula in Charleston earlier this year, but this is a big step up compared with recent level of opponents and that should play out on the scoreboard in favour of the higher Ranked player.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alexander Blockx: He started the season having to Qualify for the Australian Open, but there is every chance that youngster Alexander Blockx will be Seeded when Wimbledon rolls around at the end of June.

Even as recently as the Monte Carlo Masters, Blockx was playing in the Qualifiers, but his run to the Madrid Masters Semi Final means the Belgian has pushed his way into World Number 36.

That run was ended by Alexander Zverev, who was eventually beaten by Jannik Sinner, and it is going to be tough for the younger player to change the scoreline.

Alexander Blockx does have a serve that can keep him in matches, but the clay courts are always tougher to impose that shot alone and in Madrid it was Alexander Zverev who had the bigger serve by some margin.

The experience is also an edge and Alexander Zverev has long been very comfortable on the clay courts and two of the three defeats on the surface this year have been against the World Number 1.

While the numbers are impressive, there is also a feeling that Alexander Zverev has room for improvement and he will be looking to peak at the French Open beginning at the end of the month and not at this stage of the clay court season. He will be expecting a bit more out of the serve and will feel there is more pressure he can exert on the return, but Zverev did more than enough to get the better of Alexander Blockx at the last tournament and can frank that form.

Respect has to be given to Alexander Blockx for the confidence he would have earned from some of the upsets produced during the clay court season, but he may not have had enough time to make the adjustments for this match up.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 97-82, + 10.54 Units (244 Units Staked, + 4.32% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 13 Pick 2026- Men's Final (Sunday 29th March)

It could be a final day in Miami which features a number of rain delays, but there is a hope that there will be enough of a window to conclude the Masters.

After Aryna Sabalenka completed the Sunshine Double, Jannik Sinner will be looking to do the same when the ATP Final is played to complete the first half of the hard court season.

His opponent has been in strong form over the last few days, but Sinner is the favourite and the expectation is that he will pick up the title when all is said and done,

And then it will be time for the clay court season.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: The Miami Final has one familiar name lining up to take the title home, but credit has to be given to Jiri Lehecka for working his way through the draw.

He has been far from fortunate.

The World Number 22 going into the tournament, Jiri Lehecka will be setting a new career best mark on Monday regardless of the result. His live World Ranking is up to Number 14, which surpasses his previous best of Number 16, and an upset on Sunday would see the Czech player move into the top twelve.

He has had a solid fifteen months on the hard courts, but Jiri Lehecka's run in Miami has been special having yet to have his serve broken and facing just nine Break Points in the five wins produced in the tournament. The return game has always been effective enough for the hard courts and Lehecka will have the confidence of having dropped a single set in this Masters event.

There has been one top ten win produced in this run, but Jiri Leheckha has not beaten anyone higher than World Number 31 in the other four wins.

Suffice to say he is about to have a big step up in competition as he bids to stop Jannik Sinner from completing the Sunshine Double.

Another win over Alexander Zverev keeps the hold over one of the top players in the world, but Sinner was not at his very best on Friday evening.

It says plenty about this player that he still won and Jannik Sinner is playing like the best hard court player in the world, which has been the feeling around him for a couple of years. Carlos Alcaraz will have plenty to say about that statement having won the last two Grand Slams on the surface, but Sinner's numbers are really impressive and winning Miami after Indian Wells will give the Italian a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court campaign.

In this tournament, Jannik Sinner has only faced six Break Points and been broken once, and he has been the slightly more effective return player.

He would have been a big favourite in the Final regardless, but those numbers make it very difficult to see how Jiri Leheckha gets the better of the World Number 2.

Four previous meetings on the Tour have all ended in Jannik Sinner's favour and two of those have been on the hard courts- there has been a huge gap in the service numbers in those two hard court meetings and Jannik Sinner should be able to get the better of Jiri Leheckha again.

The expectation is that he will have a couple more Breaks of serve compared with the lower Ranked player and that may be enough to cover this mark.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 

Miami Update: 19-17, + 0.93 Units (35 Units Staked, + 2.66% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 12 Pick 2026- Women's Final (Saturday 28th March)

The Miami Masters has proven to be a story of missed opportunities as yet more Break Points came and went in what turned out to be another fairly routine win for Jannik Sinner over Alexander Zverev.

The latter played better than he did in Indian Wells, but it was saving a single Break Point in one game followed by getting out of a 15-40 jam in the next that allowed Alexander Zverev to force a second set Tie-Breaker, which ultimately landed in the wrong direction for the German player.

We are about to head into the clay court season, but before that we have to see both Singles Finals completed.

The WTA Final goes up first on Saturday with the ATP Final on Sunday concluding this opening hard court run in the 2026 season.

While the majority of the top ATP players will then rest ahead of the Monte Carlo Masters in early April, the WTA takes in a clay court event in Charleston and plenty of experienced players will begin the clay court season there. In the past it has been a tournament that plays pretty differently to the European clay, but it is a big event with a 500 mark attached and that does mean seven of the current top 20 will be competing.

The clay court season does feel like it is long enough with the French Open beginning at the end of May, but the big tournaments come around very quickly and so players have to pick and choose their spots. The Madrid and Rome big 1000 events begin at the end of April through to the middle of May and at that point the majority of the big French Open contenders will take a break and prepare for what they hope will be a productive trip to Paris.

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Coco Gauff: This is going to be the thirteenth professional meeting between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff and the Miami Champion will end the night with a 7-6 lead.

It is the World Number 1 who has begun to get the better of Coco Gauff more often than not with four wins in the last six, but there is rarely a lot between the players and the slight adjustments made can turn things back around. There are perhaps some signs of that happening considering the last four between Sabalenka and Gauff have been split with two wins apiece, while the biggest win in that time is Coco Gauff's success in the French Open Final last year.

She is not just the home player in terms of this being played in the United States, but Coco Gauff was born in Florida and still lives there- this means having the local support and plenty of support from friends and family ahead of this big Final.

The run has been something of a surprise when you think the World Number 4 had to withdraw mid-match in Indian Wells and had some serious concerns about shooting pains in her arm. A MRI came back clear, but that would have reduced expectations in the second half of the Sunshine Double and it has already been a productive fortnight that will be concluded with a jump up to World Number 3 when the next set of World Rankings are released on Monday morning.

The overall level in 2026 has been a little below what is expected from Gauff, but she has looked stronger in the Miami event and that will help her confidence. The second serve continues to be a big weakness for the 22 year old as she continues to try and develop her tennis, but Coco Gauff has been able to cover up those issues by making more first serves and backing it up with solid returning numbers.

She is going to need all of that and more if she is going to upset the World Number 1 who has followed the title win in Indian Wells by producing high quality tennis here in Miami.

Aryna Sabalenka will be particularly pleased with getting the better of Elena Rybakina for a second tournament in a row after losing the Australian Open Final against the World Number 2, and the serve continues to put her in a strong position to win any match she plays.

There is room for improvement on the return with the numbers slightly below her usual level on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka may feel her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina is proof that everything is coming together just in time for another title to be secured.

Nothing ever comes easily against Coco Gauff and that is because the American can get plenty of balls back in play and neutralise rallies when at her best.

There have been signs of that in this tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka is playing at a much stronger level than most right now and the World Number 1 can complete the Sunshine Double with a solid win in the Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 18-17, + 0.21 Units (34 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Friday 27th March)

The Miami Open is down to the final three days of the tournament and the Women's Singles Final has been set for Saturday between two of the current top four players in the World Rankings.

Some may feel the second ATP Semi Final scheduled to be played on Friday is a de facto Final with the winner likely going to be set as a strong favourite in the title match on Sunday. The two other players left in the draw will certainly have something to say about that, but Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are playing at a really high level and the day of rest between the Semi Final and Final will certainly edge things in their favour.

A mixed Day 10 has continued to hold back the totals, but that is just the way the second half of this Masters event has gone.

One selection is available from the ATP Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11 and that can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: For the second Masters event in a row, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev meet and this is a match that really comes down to the racquet of the latter.

He must serve well if he is going to produce the upset, but it may be asking too much against the World Number 2.

In Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner dominated the second serve of Alexander Zverev and that saw him coast to a pretty comfortable win. Not only does that make it six wins in a row for Sinner, all on the hard courts, but the last three have been very one-sided and something will have to change for Alexander Zverev to even put a competitive performance on the board.

Protecting that second serve more effectively is important, but there is also considerable concern with the way Alexander Zverev has been dealing with the Sinner delivery.

In the last three matches, Alexander Zverev has not been able to win more than 31% of return points played and that has kept him under the pump. In their last meeting in Indian Wells, Zverev managed to win just 26% of return points played and he has now broken the Jannik Sinner serve once in the last five matches played.

During that same period, Alexander Zverev has been constantly having to fend off Break Points and it is very difficult to see much changing with the short turnaround between recent matches.

Jannik Sinner is playing exceptionally well in Miami and is on course to complete the Sunshine Double, which will give him a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court season as he looks to become the latest player to complete the career Grand Slam.

This is a big spread and a strong serving display from Alexander Zverev will make it very difficult to cover, but Jannik Sinner's recent head to head against the German makes him the right play in this second Semi Final scheduled for Friday.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 18-16, + 1.21 Units (33 Units Staked, + 3.67% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 10 Picks 2026 (Thursday 26th March)

So what can you say about that match?

Tommy Paul has Break Points in the opening two returns games of the deciding set and then FOUR Match Points in the Tie-Breaker, all in succession, and still manages to lose?

That result is kind of how the last few days have been going at the Miami Masters with the fine edges now working against the selections. It means instead of a proper bounce back fortnight after Indian Wells, the target is simply to head away with a positive return from the tournament and hoping the bounces begin to fall inside our lines, rather than just outside.

Matches are running down with four scheduled for Thursday and then just two on Friday- after that we have the Singles Finals played on Saturday for the WTA event and Sunday for the ATP event and then the entire Tour can settle down and get ready for some big clay court action.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Winning matches is what will always matter most in any sports field, but the current levels being produced by Frances Tiafoe are going to have to be significantly improved if he is going to pose a threat to the World Number 2.

The last couple of wins here in Miami have been a touch fortunate, but Frances Tiafoe should be credited for finding a way to turn momentum around. He has dropped the middle set in each of the last two Rounds, but has rallied to win the decider and the World Number 20 will be playing with plenty of support behind him in the stands.

Frances Tiafoe has taken advantage of the Miami conditions and that has led to holds in 90% of service games played this week, although he has also struggled on the return.

The bigger points have landed in Tiafoe's favour and that has seen him come through the last couple of matches despite facing more Break Points than he has created.

All of this is well and good, but Frances Tiafoe will need to raise his levels considerably if he is going to upset Jannik Sinner.

The World Number 2 was tested by Alex Michelsen in the Fourth Round, but he was largely in control thanks to the dominance behind serve and that meant Sinner cannot have ever been really concerned about the position within the match. Over the last couple of years on the hard courts, Jannik Sinner has been one of the more dominant servers and his numbers in Miami make him a clear favourite to win the title on Sunday.

He may not have returned to the usual level in the Fourth Round win over Michelsen, but that did not stop Jannik Sinner from creating seven Break Points.

In the first two matches in Miami, Sinner had been much more consistent on the return of serve and he will be relatively comfortable within this match up having dominated Frances Tiafoe the last couple of times they have faced each other in competition.

Over eighteen months have passed since they last played one another, but Jannik Sinner will feel he can still predict what is to come from the American.

You can never dismiss Frances Tiafoe's ability to serve at a very high level when putting together that rhythm, but he could be under a lot of scoreboard pressure throughout this Quarter Final and the expectation is that Jannik Sinner will have a bit too much in the locker and that may allow him to cover this spread.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: It has been a very productive trip to Miami for Francisco Cerundolo and he will be keen for it to continue for at least another Round.

Very little strong hard court form had been presented by the World Number 19 over the last few years and Francisco Cerundolo had a 4-3 record in the surface in 2026 before the three wins already secured here.

The win over Daniil Medvedev is the stand out result achieved, but Francisco Cerundolo is facing an even higher Ranked opponent in this Quarter Final. His serve has proven to be a decent weapon in the conditions, but Cerundolo has really impressed with the level of the return and 45% of return games ending in a Break of serve across three wins is impressive.

None of that will be lost on Alexander Zverev who will have hoped to have been on the other side of the draw where he would have now been a big favourite to reach the Miami Final. Instead Zverev is going to have go through this tough Quarter Final opponent and then likely have another crack at trying to beat World Number 2 Jannik Sinner on Friday and it is a challenging position for the German player.

Alexander Zverev has only faced 3 Break Points in the three wins secured in Miami, but he has still spent some significant time on the court in the last two Rounds. Having a day off between the Fourth Round and the Quarter Final will help and the World Number 4 is going to be very comfortable with the serving numbers produced this season.

The returning numbers have not been as encouraging in the tournament, but Alexander Zverev has to feel there is more to come from himself.

He will take significant belief out of the fact he has won the last three matches against Francisco Cerundolo and all on the hard courts, including a very comfortable win at the Australian Open in January. The match late in 2025 was a more competitive affair in the Davis Cup, but Alexander Zverev may be the player with the majority of Break Points in this Quarter Final and that could see him edge past this spread, even if some may feel it is a game too high.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 16-14, + 1.30 Units (29 Units Staked, + 4.48% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 25th March)

Day 8 came down to Frances Tiafoe and he looked in a decent position when taking the first set 6-4 and quickly moving into a 0-40 position to take complete command of the Fourth Round match.

However, Tiafoe served a reminder as to why he is rarely selected as he not only failed to convert those Break opportunities, but wilted in the second set.

As stated, Frances Tiafoe is a battler though and he wins plenty of matches- he just doesn't tend to cover as a favourite and that was proved again as he dropped the second set 6-1, but won two 6-4 sets around it.

The last few days have been a little disappointing for the Tennis Picks and that has dented the totals that had been produced through the opening six days of the tournament.

Wednesday feels important to try and bounce back and there are two selections from the four Quarter Final matches that are scheduled to be played.

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: If it wasn't for the WTA decision to remove Ranking Points from the 2022 Wimbledon event that was won by Elena Rybakina, the latter may have actually earned a top two World Ranking before last week.

It has felt like she has been playing as the second best player in the world for some time and winning the Australian Open title backed that up.

Elena Rybakina was not quite able to add the Indian Wells title to her collection, but the run to the Final was enough to move past Iga Swiatek and the Kazakhstan player may already be thinking about closing on the World Number 1 spot. Taking that away from Aryna Sabalenka is not going to be easy, but Elena Rybakina has little to defend at the next two very important WTA 1000 events on the clay and her run to the Quarter Final here in Miami has improved on the Second Round loss last year.

Thinking too far ahead would be a mistake, but this could be a special year for Elena Rybakina if she can stay healthy and she will certainly be amongst the favourites at Wimbledon and the US Open.

The current top two players in the world are setting the standard and Jessica Pegula is desperately trying to bridge the gap.

She may be the World Number 5 and put together some very strong results to open 2026, but Jessica Pegula has already suffered two important defeats to Elena Rybakina in Melbourne and Indian Wells.

A title was won in Dubai, but Jessica Pegula is desperate to win a Major and that would mean having to beat the likes of Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka from her current World Ranking mark.

There is little wrong with the quality of tennis that Jessica Pegula is playing- she serves much more effectively than some may think and Pegula backs that up with solid returning, but this match up will test her mentally.

Two defeats suffered to Elena Rybakina this season can be added to the two hard court losses against this opponent after the US Open last year.

Three years ago she was beaten by Elena Rybakina in Miami and it is hard to ignore that the higher Ranked player has been the superior one in those head to heads with Jessica Pegula.

The American has not been overwhelmed, but Elena Rybakina has played the bigger points best and she has covered this handicap line in all of those wins.

Jessica Pegula is unlikely to roll over, but it is Rybakina who has the edge on the serve and that can be the difference maker in this Quarter Final.

Tommy Paul v Arthur Fils: This is going to be a close, competitive Quarter Final and the winner is going to be the favourite to progress to the Miami Final on Sunday.

They will have a Semi Final to play, but Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils look like they are clearly the best players left in the top half of the draw as we reach the last eight of this Masters event.

No one can argue about the level being produced by Arthur Fils right now, but Tommy Paul looks an interesting underdog to back, despite not having those big time results this year.

He has played well when going up against some of the stronger players on the Tour, but the Arthur Fils numbers have dipped when taking in his hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents.

That is not to say Fils cannot win this match, because he clearly can, but Tommy Paul is a very solid hard court player and the home crowd could push him over the line in the last match scheduled to be played on Day 9 at the tournament.

It is Tommy Paul who has won the sole previous meeting, but that was long enough go to be largely irrelevant.

What does remain important is that Paul has been serving well enough and may have the edge on the return, which ultimately could prove to be the difference between them in a match that may go all the way.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Tommy Paul @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 16-12, + 3.30 Units (27 Units Staked, + 12.22% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 24th March)

Day 7 was not an impressive one for the Tennis Picks, but there was a little bit of misfortune around some of the selections.

Ugo Humbert, Aryna Sabalenka and Jakub Mensik all came very close to doing enough to cover, but a Break of serve here or a poor service game there proved costly.

However, overall it has been a solid tournament and there is every hope that Day 7 is only a slight setback.

It is another busy day coming up on Tuesday with the ATP Fourth Round completed and the opening two WTA Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.

The weather is continuing to play ball with the tournament, which is a good thing, and there are five selections on Day 8, which can be read below and with the Miami totals updated.

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 games v Martin Landaluce: Upsets have opened this portion of the ATP Miami draw and a big opportunity comes up for both Sebastian Korda and Martin Landaluce to reach the business end of a 1000 level event.

They have not taken advantage of others doing the hard work so there is going to be a lot of confidence in both camps.

Sebastian Korda has the biggest win after coming through against World Number 1 Carlos Alcaraz in the Third Round- he should have won in straight sets, but all credit should be given to Korda for overcoming the disappointment in the middle of the match and still finding a way to fight through in three sets.

The American is plenty experienced and is a former top 20 Ranked player so it is no surprise that Sebastian Korda is the favourite in this Fourth Round match.

However, he has to be very aware of the fact that Martin Landaluce has already beaten two opponents Ranked higher than Korda in making his way through to the Fourth Round here having begun his tournament in the Qualifying Rounds. The 20 year old has beaten four top 100 Ranked players in Miami and all of his wins have been against players Ranked higher than himself, and it is a run that will have surprised Martin Landaluce's team as much as anyone else.

Over the last twelve months, Martin Landaluce has put together some solid hard court numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents and that will have to be respected. The serve has been a huge weapon in Miami and the numbers have been considerably stronger than his overall hard court serving numbers and so you do have to wonder how long he can keep this going.

Following up an important win can be tough, but Sebastian Korda will point out that he has won eighteen of the twenty-two hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 over the last twelve month period. However, he will have to be careful in this Fourth Round match as all four of those defeats have been disappointing ones facing players Ranked outside the top 100, even if the numbers have remained relatively strong.

This is a big spread, but Sebastian Korda may do enough to edge past the handicap mark set against an opponent who will be edging back towards his career best World Ranking after an unexpectedly strong run here.

Tommy Paul - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Finding enough consistency to push on with improving his career high World Ranking has been difficult for Tomas Martin Etcheverry and the numbers have been steady on all surfaces.

The clay court season feels like it will be important for Etcheverry and he may be entering that part of the 2026 year with more confidence having put a solid run together here in Miami.

He is going to be the underdog in this Fourth Round match against Tommy Paul, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry is a solid enough hard court player to feel he has every chance of earning the upset. However, the Argentinian player has not beaten a player Ranked in the top 20 on this surface over the last twelve months and, in fact, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been beaten in all four of those matches played.

The problem has been that he has struggled to impose his serve on those matches, while the return game has simply not been good enough to make up for that fact.

Tommy Paul has dropped out of the top 20 of the World Rankings, but he needs one or two more wins to push back into that elite portion of the Tour. The hard court results have perhaps not been as good as the overall performances, but Tommy Paul will have taken plenty of belief out of the two wins he has had in Miami having had to dig deep to win both in three sets.

There has been little wrong with the serving, but Tommy Paul will know there is room for improvement when it comes to the return- those numbers have not been as strong as they were in 2025, and Paul will be looking to be a bit more effective in that side of his tennis to push forward.

The 28 year old is pretty effective on all surfaces so the next several months is a chance to rebuild some of the confidence, as well as the World Ranking, while Tommy Paul may feel his current return level is still enough to find the opportunities to win this Fourth Round match.

Covering the handicap will be challenging on recent form, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry has just had a bit of a struggle for consistency and that may give Tommy Paul the opportunity to produce a solid victory in this match.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The two hard court wins that Jannik Sinner holds over Alex Michelsen were both played in 2024, and both are improved since those matches.

However, it is Sinner who has improved that much more and his hard court numbers over the last two years are very special.

He is on for the Sunshine Double, which has not been completed by many players previously, and Carlos Alcaraz already exiting the tournament only strengthens Jannik Sinner's position as favourite.

Alex Michelsen is going to be under pressure to serve at his very best.

Anything below that level will give Jannik Sinner all of the momentum, especially as Michelsen has only broken in 8% of return games played against the World Number 2 in those previous matches. His return can still be something of a weakness, especially against the elite players on the Tour and the two losses to Daniil Medvedev earlier this season back that up.

It is a wide spread, but Jannik Sinner is playing with some supreme confidence after picking up the title in Indian Wells and he will be looking to push much closer to the World Number 1, if not overtake him in the World Rankings, over the next six weeks.

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Terence Atmane: The World Number 20 has tremendous grit and determination and that has to be respected, but Frances Tiafoe is rarely backed to cover any spread on these pages.

Why? The main reason is that his numbers are always pretty average and that means he is rarely winning matches with much confidence for those watching on.

Even in a recent run to the Final in Acapulco, Frances Tiafoe came through a couple of very tight matches before being fortunate to beat Brandon Nakashima in the Semi Final before finally coming up short- he was a little lucky to get through his Third Round match here in Miami on Monday too.

However, Terence Atmane can say the same after upsetting Felix Auger Aliassime and the Frenchman has much poorer overall numbers compared with his opponet in the Fourth Round here.

Terence Atmane had won just four of twelve hard court matches prior to his arrival in Miami and his Hold and Break percentages are considerably lower than those Frances Tiafoe has put together.

They actually played one another last month in Dallas and it was Atmane who won the opening set before Frances Tiafoe rallied and coasted through the next two.

On that day, the difference in the serving efficiency was evident and that may be the case again, although you do have to hope Frances Tiafoe has recovered from spending an hour longer on the court than the World Number 53 in their respective Third Round wins.

Karolina Muchova v Victoria Mboko: This is the second time these two are meeting in a big spot having contested the WTA 1000 Final in Doha last month.

This time a Semi Final spot is on the line for Victoria Mboko and Karolina Muchova and both have been producing strong hard court tennis all season.

The older player has been set as the narrow underdog, but Karolina Muchova will take confidence from the fact she has won a big title on the surface and her three defeats have been one apiece to the current top three in the World Rankings.

Victoria Mboko has perhaps passed Mirra Andreeva as the leading teenager capable of winning a Major after the development over the last twelve months- she was beaten in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open to the current World Number 1, but that has not dented any of the confidence and Victoria Mboko has reached at least the Quarter Final in every other hard court event played.

She will have learnt a lot from the defeat to Karolina Muchova in the Middle East, but the experience of the latter and the slightly stronger performances on the surface in 2026 suggests the World Number 14 can edge through here.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tommy Paul - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Karolina Muchova @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 14-9, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Monday 23rd March)

The Miami Masters continues at a pace on Monday with the entire WTA Fourth Round scheduled to be played alongside the remaining half of the ATP Third Round matches.

We are reaching the business end of the tournaments at a rapid pace and the upset of Carlos Alcaraz in the Third Round will have opened the door for a surprising player to make it through to the Final here and pick up some very valuable Ranking Points.

For the World Number 1, the early exit offers him a chance to go home and reset ahead of the clay court season beginning in a couple of weeks time, but he will be disappointed.

The WTA event looks largely intact going into the latter stages of that event, and it should mean an interesting end to the first half of the hard court season next weekend.

The Tennis Picks at Miami have bounced back from the poor Indian Wells returns, but there is still a long week of work to get through before the final totals will be placed in the books.

Focus is key and keeping things as tight as possible with the selection criteria.

On Day 7, time has been a factor and so only the selections will be posted below without the full analysis that has accompanied those for much of the 2026 season.

MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-5, + 6.67 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.69% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 4 Picks 2026 (Friday 20th March)

The Miami tournament continues to play catch up after Day 2 was washed out, but the Second Round of the WTA event has begun and there should be plenty of matches scheduled from that Round on Friday.

Some of those matches will only be put together at the conclusion of Day 3 and so any further selections will be added to this thread.

The opening totals from the tournament will also be updated and added to this thread on Friday when all of the first four selections have been completed.

UPDATE: As expected, the Miami Masters event is trying to get back on track and that means all twenty-eight WTA Second Round matches that have yet to be completed are all scheduled to be played on Friday, which starts an hour earlier than usual on the outdoor courts.

There is also the conclusion of the ATP First Round and Second Round matches scheduled from that event and I have added selections from markets that were formed overnight.

The Miami totals have also been updated after the opening four Picks were completed late on Thursday evening.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: The peak of her career may be behind her, but that does not mean Ajla Tomljanovic is going to roll over for any opponent she faces on the Tour.

However, the gap is increasing between the Australian and the better players on the Tour and that will mean matches are taking away from her, even if she is giving her all on the court.

Ajla Tomljanovic has never been higher than World Number 32, but she is operating with a number 81 next to her name these days- after a slow start to the 2026 season, Tomljanovic has reached the Quarter Final in Austin and the Third Round in Indian Wells where she was able to upset a Seeded player in the Second Round.

That was the Number 30 Seed in Indian Wells, but in Miami she is facing not only a top ten Ranked opponent, but someone who has reached Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open last year and a player who is very comfortable on this surface.

Amanda Anisimova did reach the Fourth Round in Miami last year, but another good run here and moving past that stage would see her edge that much closer to the top four places in the World Ranking. The 24 year old has become an all-court player and credit has to be given to Anisimova for putting together stronger numbers on the clay courts and grass courts in 2025 compared with the hard courts, which suggests this is a player that is a threat at all four Grand Slams played.

The Fourth Round loss in Indian Wells will have been something of a disappointment, but Amanda Anisimova has been a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open and Semi Finalist in Dubai and over the last twelve months she has been dominant when facing players outside the top 50 of the World Rankings on this surface.

The numbers have backed up the strong scoreboard wins and the American should have too much for veteran Ajla Tomljanovic- the latter has won the two Tour meetings, but one was back in 2017 and the other in 2021 and it was Tomljanovic who was Ranked higher on both occasions.

It is much different now and the Amanda Anisimova aggressive ball-striking should give her the edge in this match, while covering this big line is also well within her scope.

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Zeynep Sonmez: Coming through the Qualifiers and reaching the Australian Open Third Round has raised the Zeynep Sonmez profile, although that has perhaps meant expectations have also not been easy to meet. The 23 year old received a lot of support through the Middle East swing soon after her run at Melbourne, but three opening defeats has just reminded people that Sonmez still has some developing to get through if she wants to move up the World Rankings.

At the moment Zeynep Sonmez is the World Number 83 and her career best mark was set in October at Number 69.

She reached the Quarter Final in Merida since the Middle East swing ended without any victories and Zeynep Sonmez has won First Round matches at both Indian Wells and here in Miami. However, the run ended in Indian Wells in the Second Round and it is going to take some effort for Sonmez to beat the World Number 12 in the Second Round at this tournament.

Belinda Bencic dropped more Ranking Points when losing in the Fourth Round at Indian Wells last week, but she has nothing to defend here in Miami and the Swiss star is going to want to push back into the top ten ahead of the clay court season. Number 4 is still the career high for Belinda Bencic, but she has returned to the Tour after becoming a mother and there remain real ambitions to win a Major title.

After winning all five matches at the United Cup in early January, it has been more of a struggle for Belinda Bencic who has won four of seven matches played since that opening tournament. She was in good shape in Indian Wells before losing to Jessica Pegula in a competitive match and that will bode well for Belinda Bencic who will be looking to put a confidence boosting run on the board ahead of the build up towards the French Open.

She has particularly thrived when facing those opponents she would be expected to beat, namely those who are Ranked lower than her when entering the court- over the last twelve months, Belinda Bencic is 19-3 in those matches and her numbers have backed that up with noticeable improvements on the serve and return.

Underestimating Zoynep Sonmez would be a mistake considering the Turkish player has a 3-4 record over the last twelve months on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents. The underdog has won both matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in that time and with nothing to lose, Sonmez can become dangerous.

It should be noted that Zoynep Sonmez has come out of those two matches by just edging the very fine margins and that is hard to sustain.

A confident Belinda Bencic can be very tough to stop on the hard courts and it may be that the higher Ranked player can win a few more easy points behind the first serve that allows her to control this match. This will also mean Bencic can take a real swing on the return of serve and ultimately it may end up with the more experienced player coming through with a solid win on the scoreboard.

Clara Tauson - 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: Eighteen months ago, Katie Boulter was moving into her career best World Ranking mark of Number 23 and looking very capable of breaking into the top 20.

Injury and a loss of form prevented that happening and Boulter has struggled to get herself going again with her current World Ranking down at Number 67. A First Round win will help, but Katie Boulter has work to do if she is going to be in a position to be Seeded when Wimbledon comes around later this year.

She did not play badly on the clay courts last season so an opportunity will come up if Boulter can build up some confidence and momentum by earning an upset in the Second Round in Miami. These big WTA 1000 events makes it very difficult for any player to put together strong runs considering the quality of competition very early in the tournaments, but that is especially the case for those that begin in the First Round like the British player had to do.

Familiarising herself with the conditions has to be a positive, but a Second Round match against Clara Tauson is a tough prospect.

The 23 old is the World Number 16 and her hard court numbers have been pretty good this season, even if the results have not always backed that up. Consistency is a good thing for players like Clara Tauson who has a powerful serve on this surface, although there is room for improvement when it comes to the return.

Those improved numbers have been there over the last twelve months when Clara Tauson has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 50 and she came through a Second Round match in Indian Wells against such an opponent. However, the Dane will have been really disappointed to have lost a tight match against the World Number 92 in Talia Gibson and that is the kind of result that Katie Boulter must use as a form of encouragement about her own chances.

A career long problem for Katie Boulter has been facing the better players on the Tour on this surface- she has won just 32% of matches against top 50 Ranked opponents and that drops to 15% when only considering top 20 opponents.

Katie Boulter is 1-5 against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months in hard court matches and she would be 3-3 when it comes to covering this handicap mark. That is 2-3 when only considering the matches she has lost and the feeling is that Clara Tauson has a bit too much power behind her strokes, which will give her the edge in this contest.

The sole previous meeting ended in a routine win for Clara Tauson back in 2022, but that is largely irrelevant now- despite that, the higher Ranked player should still have a bit too much for Boulter and she can cover this handicap mark in this Second Round match in Miami.

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Christopher O'Connell: Another Qualifier looking to use some of the momentum and familiarity of the conditions in his favour is Christoper O'Connell, but he has once again been drawn to face Marton Fucsovics.

That did not go so well in Indian Wells as the Australian was beaten pretty handily, but some believe the courts in Miami will play a little faster and that should help.

However, it is the second one-sided loss suffered against the veteran over the last twelve months, albeit the first on a hard court, and Christoper O'Connell has been struggling for consistency to open 2026. That is underlined by his drop into World Number 130 and there has been some pressure on the O'Connell serve, which is not operating at the kind of standards he has set previously.

He struggled against Marton Fucsovics in Indian Wells and the latter ended up reaching the Third Round at that event in what has been a pretty inconsistent start to the season for him too.

Marton Fucsovics is 34 years old now, but he still has a decent game on the courts.

On the main Tour, Marton Fucsovics is 7-2 on the hard courts when facing those Ranked below him and that is over a twelve month sample.

Not only has he held 88% of his service games in that time, but Fucsovics has created constant pressure on the return with 32% of return games ending in a Break and that was shown in the Indian Wells win over this opponent.

If Christoper O'Connell serves well, this is a dangerous spread, but Marton Fucsovics has all of the tools he needs to overcome the mark and move into a Second Round match against the Number 7 Seed in the draw.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Clara Tauson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 3-1, + 2.35 Units (4 Units Staked, + 58.75% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 2 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 18th March)

The Indian Wells Masters tournament was a great one for Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner, but it was not a very good tournament at all as far as the Tennis Picks go.

Thing started poorly and the selections just did not rally as hoped, which was summed up by Sabalenka failing to serve out the Final, then miss five Break Points to have another shot at doing that, and only then to battle through the Tie-Breaker to take the title.

She won't care with the World Number 1 happy to get one over on Elena Rybakina and both players will join the rest of the Tour in Miami where the WTA event begins a day before the ATP.

Those two players will enter the tournament later in the week in the Second Round, but it is a tough switch with the courts in Miami historically playing quite differently to those in Indian Wells. The conditions are a lot different too and there are expected to be a fair few rain delays throughout the Masters event played here over the remainder of the month.

Aryna Sabalenka won the WTA title and it was a big week for Jannik Sinner who won the ATP title and picked up his first trophy in 2026 in what has been a difficult year so far.

Well difficult in terms of his own expectation levels and Jannik Sinner will be feeling much better about his overall game after winning the big title, while he can spend the next two months chasing Carlos Alcaraz in the World Rankings with nothing to defend until the French Open.

Like the top WTA players, Sinner and other Seeded ATP participants in Miami will join the tournament in the Second Round and this has the makings of another intriguing week on the Tour as the hard court portion of the season takes a break at the end of the event here.

Soon all of the attention will be on the clay court events in the build up to the French Open and that will mean another adjustment is needed to the criteria in narrowing down a shortlist.

After the last tournament, Miami is an important one to try and bounce back and pick up some momentum to take into the red dirt part of the season.

Ethan Quinn v Hubert Hurkacz: There was nothing wrong with the way Hubert Hurkacz played at the United Cup in the build up to the Australian Open and he won four of the five matches played in that tournament.

He carried that form through to an opening win at the first Grand Slam of the season, but things have gotten away from the World Number 75 and he has since suffered six straight defeats on the hard courts.

The serve always gives Hubert Hurkacz a chance to make things competitive on the scoreboard, but in this run of defeats, he has won one of the fourteen sets played. Hubert Hurkacz even decided to leave Indian Wells following another opening defeat and take part in a Challenger event to build up some confidence, but he was beaten by the World Number 94 and has taken another body blow.

His opponent in the First Round in Miami will receive plenty of support from the stands, but Ethan Quinn had also suffered three defeats in a row at Dallas, Delray Beach and in his first match at Indian Wells and so also decided to take in a Challenger event.

However, this time Ethan Quinn went on to win the title in Phoenix and there are a couple of solid wins on the resume in that run to the trophy that will have only added to the confidence of the 22 year old.

Prior to that Challenger event, Ethan Quinn had been struggling for form as well, but he will take confidence from the fact that he was able to beat Hubert Hurkacz in Melbourne in January.

The first two sets were very competitive in that Second Round match at the Australian Open and Ethan Quinn had to save a lot of Break Points, but he will be encouraged by the success he had against the Hubert Hurkacz serve. Winning 38% of return points will give the young American belief he has the tennis to secure another upset over the former top ten Ranked opponent and especially with the way things have been going for both players in recent weeks.

Ethan Quinn will have to just lift his serving numbers slightly to make sure he offers little encouragement to his opponent and he will also have to likely come through at least one Tie-Breaker.

None of that is going to be easy, but Hubert Hurkacz has not been playing well enough to be favoured when noting he has lost four of his last six hard court matches to opponents Ranked lower than himself when the match has been played. The Pole will serve effectively, as is always the case, but it is the younger player who can came through a tough match.

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschlup: At 26 years old, there is still time for Denis Shapovalov to reach the kind of level that many felt he would after some very strong early successes in his career.

By January 2022, Denis Shapovalov had reached the Quarter Final in three of the four Grand Slams played with the exception being the French Open, but he has only reached the second week of a Major once in the next fifteen appearances in Slam tournaments.

Suffice to say that this is a big disappointment and Shapovalov is the World Number 38 having reached a career best of World Number 10 back in 2020.

There have been some signs that he may be returning to something like his best after a Semi Final run in Dallas and winning two matches in Indian Wells before losing to eventual Champion Jannik Sinner in the Third Round. Over the last twelve months, the Canadian has shown something different in his return games, although that has had a negative impact on his service numbers on the hard courts.

Despite that, it should be noted that Denis Shapovalov has a 16-8 record on the hard courts when facing a lower Ranked opponent over the last twelve months and that is the situation for him in the First Round in Miami.

Botic Van De Zandschlup reached the Third Round at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final in Rotterdam, but there has been too many losses around those runs.

On his day, Van De Zandschlup has a serve that can be very dangerous, but his return game has been limited and the three losses in a row cannot have done very much for his confidence as he slips down the World Rankings.

When these players last met in the 2024 US Open, it was Botic Van De Zandschlup who won as the higher Ranked player with Denis Shapovalov sitting outside of the top 100. Earlier that season, Shapovalov had beaten the same opponent at the Indian Wells Masters and the feeling is that on current form the Canadian can be backed to get the better of this opponent.

Dismissing Botic Van De Zandschlup's chances would be a mistake, but Denis Shapovalov may just do enough at critical moments in this match to edge past the Dutchman into the Second Round.

The slightly superior returning can make that difference in this match and that is how it feels like it will play out.

MY PICKS: Ethan Quinn @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 74-62, + 9.27 Units (202 Units Staked, + 4.59% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 10th March)

It has been an inconsistent opening week as the Tennis Picks have taken one step forwards and then two steps back, but that is just the nature of the Tour at times.

There have been moments when it has looked like there has been some momentum behind the selections, but Madison Keys failed to build on a 6-2 first set in losing her match on Monday evening and that meant another 2-2 day.

Tuesday looks a much more difficult day with the matches being competitively priced, but there are two more Picks from the day, which can be read below.

Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: Don't expect this to be a match filled with rallies considering the serving powers of both Arthur Fils and Felix Auger Aliassime.

That proved to be the difference in favour of Felix Auger Aliassime when he beat the Frenchman in Montpellier last month, although that was also a match played on an indoor hard court. Playing in outdoor conditions is always going to be a little different and especially in a tournament like the one held in Indian Wells where it can be that much more challenging, although Auger Aliassime is playing with enough confidence to back up that previous win over this opponent.

In that Quarter Final match last month, Felix Auger Aliassime dominated behind serve and it ended up putting pressure on Arthur Fils to respond.

Felix Auger Aliassime won 90% of service points played compared with Arthur Fils at 58% and the higher Ranked player will be confident in having the edge again.

Things will feel a little different as that event in Montpellier was the first Arthur Fils was competing in this season, but he has since reached the Final of an ATP 500 event held in Doha and the World Number 32 has impressed in his two wins in Indian Wells.

Confidence can be such a big factor and Arthur Fils is playing with a lot of that right now- his serve is still an important weapon and Fils is also showing plenty of athleticism around the court on his return, although that aspect of his tennis going to be severely tested by Felix Auger Aliassime.

The first month of the season was massively disappointing for Felix Auger Aliassime and included a First Round loss in Melbourne, but he has been flying since then.

Winning the title in Montpellier was followed by a run to the Final in Rotterdam and Semi Final in Dubai and the Canadian has been serving very well.

However, that has always been a strength of the Auger Aliassime game and it is the 18% Break percentage that actually stands out the most- he has not always been the best return player on the hard courts, but Felix Auger Aliassime is applying pressure on that side of the net and it may be a key reason that he can edge past Arthur Fils and most likely in straight sets.

He has needed to go three sets in both wins in Indian Wells, but there has been little wrong with the serve and Felix Auger Aliassime has continued to find the Breaks that he has needed and he can do something similar in this Fourth Round match up.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Joao Fonseca: There are some huge expectations on the shoulders of 19 year old Brazilian Joao Fonseca, but that has perhaps contributed to the player struggling to have the kind of impact people may have wanted to see from him.

Third Round runs at the French Open and Wimbledon helped push him close to the top 20 of the World Rankings at the end of the 2025 season, but Joao Fonseca arrived at Indian Wells as the World Number 35.

The numbers being produced over the last twelve months overall have been very solid and shows the growing presence around this player, but there has been little hard court action taken in this season.

With that said, Joao Fonseca has done very well to win three matches here and move through to this big Fourth Round match.

Joao Fonseca showed tremendous character to do just enough to edge past Karen Khachanov in the Second Round, but was so much more impressive in crushing Tommy Paul for the loss of five games last time out. In that win, Fonseca backed up his serve by keeping the home player under pressure on the return, but everyone around the teenager will be reminding him of the step up in level he will be facing in the Fourth Round.

That is because the Brazilian will be playing the World Number 2 and one of the top hard court players in the world in Jannik Sinner.

The latter has only played a couple of tournaments so far this season and will have been disappointed to have lost in the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final in Doha. That doesn't mean the Jannik Sinner numbers have dipped with him continuing to produce at an exceptionally high level on the hard courts, but he will be looking to build up some momentum.

Over the next couple of months, Sinner has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points and will be expecting to push up a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz, but he will also want to win some titles and look to get something positive going ahead of the clay court season.

Jannik Sinner has looked a man on a mission with his two very convincing wins to open his time at Indian Wells and he did reach the Semi Final in his last appearance at this tournament two years ago.

He will certainly feel he serves well enough to contain much of the threat that will be posed by the youngster on the other side of the net, and Jannik Sinner exerts plenty of pressure on the return.

It means Joao Fonseca will have to serve really well to keep this one competitive and there are still levels for the Brazilian to develop to really get into a position to compete with the top two players on the Tour.

There is little doubt that Fonseca can have successes for a while, but maintaining the level needed to beat Jannik Sinner is going to be very difficult to achieve. One of the sets will be competitive, but it also would not be a big surprise if there is a period when the World Number 2 is able to string the games together and that can push Jannik Sinner into a position to cover the wide line set for the match.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 3.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)