Miami Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Friday 27th March)

The Miami Open is down to the final three days of the tournament and the Women's Singles Final has been set for Saturday between two of the current top four players in the World Rankings.

Some may feel the second ATP Semi Final scheduled to be played on Friday is a de facto Final with the winner likely going to be set as a strong favourite in the title match on Sunday. The two other players left in the draw will certainly have something to say about that, but Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are playing at a really high level and the day of rest between the Semi Final and Final will certainly edge things in their favour.

A mixed Day 10 has continued to hold back the totals, but that is just the way the second half of this Masters event has gone.

One selection is available from the ATP Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11 and that can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: For the second Masters event in a row, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev meet and this is a match that really comes down to the racquet of the latter.

He must serve well if he is going to produce the upset, but it may be asking too much against the World Number 2.

In Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner dominated the second serve of Alexander Zverev and that saw him coast to a pretty comfortable win. Not only does that make it six wins in a row for Sinner, all on the hard courts, but the last three have been very one-sided and something will have to change for Alexander Zverev to even put a competitive performance on the board.

Protecting that second serve more effectively is important, but there is also considerable concern with the way Alexander Zverev has been dealing with the Sinner delivery.

In the last three matches, Alexander Zverev has not been able to win more than 31% of return points played and that has kept him under the pump. In their last meeting in Indian Wells, Zverev managed to win just 26% of return points played and he has now broken the Jannik Sinner serve once in the last five matches played.

During that same period, Alexander Zverev has been constantly having to fend off Break Points and it is very difficult to see much changing with the short turnaround between recent matches.

Jannik Sinner is playing exceptionally well in Miami and is on course to complete the Sunshine Double, which will give him a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court season as he looks to become the latest player to complete the career Grand Slam.

This is a big spread and a strong serving display from Alexander Zverev will make it very difficult to cover, but Jannik Sinner's recent head to head against the German makes him the right play in this second Semi Final scheduled for Friday.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 18-16, + 1.21 Units (33 Units Staked, + 3.67% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 27th March)

With the new rules within tennis that they will not have matches beginning after a certain time to cut out the super late finishes that had frankly become far too common in recent years, the Miami Masters is slightly out of line right now.

Rain on Tuesday has meant a couple of matches have been pushed back and the Sebastian Korda-Novak Djokovic Quarter Final was bumped on Wednesday and instead will be played alongside two other ATP Quarter Final matches. However, the two WTA Semi Finals are also scheduled to take place on Thursday and there is every chance that one of those will have to be played on Friday, especially with the potential of another late start.

The schedulers have all five Singles matches set to be played on the same main court, but the 1pm start time means they will want all to be relatively quick if they are going to get through the entire day of play.

With that in mind, the second Pick on this thread is one that may ultimately be played on Friday instead, but it is the way the tournament has shaken up thanks to the huge amount of rain delays that were in place a couple of days ago.

A win for the one selection on Wednesday has just turned the Miami totals back around after a slump in the middle of the week- with a strong finish, there is every chance that the poor outcome from the Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks can be erased and push some momentum behind us prior to the clay court season getting underway.

In all likelihood, the first Picks from those tournaments will begin at the Monte Carlo Masters in the first full week of April with the opening events taking place in North America, Morocco and Bucharest.

The draws will determine if that is the case, but that is a matter for the weekend and the focus is on securing a few more winning selections before that.

Arthur Fils v Jakub Mensik: Two players who were young enough to compete in the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2024 meet in a big Masters Quarter Final on Thursday and the layers are struggling to split the two.

You can partly explain that away by the fact that Arthur Fils had to come from behind to beat Alexander Zverev in the Fourth Round on Wednesday. That match had originally been scheduled for Tuesday, but the rain in Miami meant having to wait, although the only benefit for Arthur Fils is that the upset over Alexander Zverev did not last more than two hours on the court.

However, while Arthur Fils was battling for a place in the Miami Quarter Final, Jakub Mensik had benefited from a walkover twenty-four hours earlier. Some of the rhythm may have been broken, but Mensik has had plenty of time to rest and recuperate for this big match as he looks for a win that would see him earn a new career high World Ranking at the event of the weekend.

Jakub Mensik is not Seeded in Miami and that means he has started a Round earlier than Arthur Fils so both players have had the same three wins to earn the spot in the last eight.

The 19 year old player from Czechia upset Jack Draper, the Indian Wells Champion, in the Second Round and Jakub Mensik has been serving very well in the conditions. The courts are playing pretty quickly in Miami and that has been an issue when it comes to the Mensik return and the slightly stronger numbers Arthur Fils has been producing in the event here should give him the edge.

In their meeting at the Next Gen Finals, Arthur Fils was able to produce the much more effective return play and he is playing well enough in Miami to believe he can do the same in this Quarter Final. Those Finals are played in a shorter set format, but the numbers on the day gave Fils a considerable edge and his performances this week look more in line with the season numbers and that should suggest that the higher Ranked player can at least maintain the standards set.

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Alexandra Eala: The 19 year old Filipino has stood next to tennis royalty in her time graduating from Rafa Nadal's Academy, but Alexandra Eala had not really pushed her way onto the main WTA Tour before taking a Wild Card in Miami.

She did not even attempt to make the main draw in Indian Wells, but instead had been playing at the lower level events on the hard courts in Mumbai and Trnava. Little impact had been made there with a 2-2 record and Alexandra Eala had failed to Qualify for the Australian Open and the tournament played in Singapore.

With all that in mind, Alexandra Eala may have arrived in Miami with very little expectation- winning one match would have given the World Ranking a boost, but things have clicked together for the left-hander and it has been an amazing run through to the WTA 1000 Semi Final.

This run has guaranteed a place in the top 100 for the first time, which will open up other opportunities, but it has been anything but a lucky run and that is where the confidence could really grow. In Miami, Alexandra Eala has beaten Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek, three former or current Grand Slam Champions and all without dropping a set.

It has been an incredible run.

Alexandra Eala may feel she has nothing to lose and there will be plenty of respect for Jessica Pegula, but no sense of fear about playing the World Number 4.

The serve has been a little vulnerable, but Eala has impressed massively on the return numbers and that is going to be a key battle in this Semi Final considering how well Jessica Pegula has been serving in the conditions. It was that serve that kept Emma Raducanu at bay in the Quarter Final and the last American left in the WTA tournament will feel that there is still more to come from the return of serve.

It will be important to try and keep Alexandra Eala under pressure on both the first and second serve deliveries. The 19 year old has similar numbers behind both of those shots and so Jessica Pegula has to feel she can get into most rallies on the return, while also trying to get on top of the first strike momentum that landing her own opening shot can produce.

Some players on the WTA Tour have shown that they can ride the momentum all the way to a surprise title and Alexandra Eala has all of the momentum after the performances and results to work her way through to the Semi Final.

However, she is playing an opponent in Jessica Pegula that has been operating at a high level over the last month on the Tour and it may just see the World Number 4 find the breaks of serve to push clear of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Arthur Fils @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-7, + 3.24 Units (19 Units Staked, + 17.05% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 27th)

The first week of the Miami Masters is in the books and we are into the business end of the tournament with the WTA Fourth Round matches scheduled to be played on Monday as well as the conclusion of the ATP Third Round.

Most of the top names are still involved in the tournament, which should lead to an uptick in the quality of the tennis being produced and it is a big week for those who don't have the same love for the clay courts as they do for other surfaces on the Tour.

The early hard court season is concluded in the next few days, but there is no real let up on the gruelling Tour with a big clay court event in Charleston scheduled for the WTA players next week.

There are three ATP events being played before the first Masters on the red dirt in Monte Carlo and the run will begin towards the French Open with important stops in Stuttgart, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome to come.

After a pretty poor first four days at the Miami Masters, the Tennis Picks made it three winning days in a row on Sunday, although there is still work to do to bring home a profitable tournament.

I will be hoping to inch further towards the black from the Monday selections and then look for the momentum to kick on through the rest of the week to get back into the positive numbers.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There is no doubt that this would feel like a very big handicap mark if we were talking of the Elise Mertens of three or four years ago, but the 27 year old is arguably better known for her Doubles successes these days.

She has won three Grand Slam titles as a Doubles player, but Mertens has not really come that close to matching the run to the Australian Open Semi Final as a Singles player like she did in 2018.

Elise Mertens is still a top 40 Ranked player and that deserves respect, but she has found it tough to compete with the top 20 and her record in those matches over the last two and a half seasons is pretty poor, especially when it comes to hard court matches. The Belgian has lost ten of her last twelve matches on the hard courts against those higher Ranked opponents and the biggest concern for Elise Mertens is that she has won just a single set across those ten losses.

In eight of those ten defeats, Elise Mertens would not have got within this number of games set for the handicap and I do think she will struggle to deal with Elena Rybakina who is looking to complete a 'Sunshine Double'.

I won't ignore the two tough matches that Rybakina has played in Miami and you do have to wonder if some accumulated fatigue is catching up with her, but the big hitting player will likely be able to earn a few more cheaper points in the match. That is key as Elena Rybakina continues to close on the top two in the World Rankings and I do think she has been returning at a consistent level that should be enough to take this Fourth Round match away from her opponent.

Elena Rybakina is not really a player who will cover this kind of line very often, even as she has grown into one of the best players on the Tour and that is perhaps down to her overall level on the return. One break is usually enough to win a set, especially as far as she is concerned, but I do think Rybakina will have chances against the Elise Mertens serve and can do just enough to win this match by a five game margin.

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Varvara Gracheva: If reports are to be believed, Varvara Gracheva will soon be representing France instead of Russia on the Tour, but the young player is not allowing off court decisions to affect her performances.

She reached the Final in Austin last month and has backed that up by not only Qualifying for both Indian Wells and Miami, but also reaching the Fourth Round at both events. Her tournament was ended in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells by Elena Rybakina and another former Grand Slam Champion stands in front of Varvara Graceva in Miami.

A thumb issue was bothering Petra Kvitova in Indian Wells, but she was playing well there and has backed that up in Miami. The lefty has had a bounce back year on the hard courts, at least up until now, and Petra Kvitova has been dominant when facing those opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Her numbers have backed that up and the return improvement is likely going to be key to determining the outcome of this Fourth Round match.

A win for Varvara Gracheva would see her crack the top 40 in the World Rankings and she is going to be rewarded with a career best World Ranking regardless of the outcome of this match. However, there are still some improvements to be made when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I do think Gracheva has benefited from the draw to reach the Fourth Round this week.

Beating Ons Jabeur deserves more respect perhaps, but Jabeur is not in the best of form and I think Petra Kvitova will have too much on the serve for her younger opponent. That should lead to the chances to pull clear of this handicap mark, as Kvitova has proven to be the case when facing those players outside of the top 20 this season.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 22-20, - 2.32 Units (86 Units Staked, - 2.69% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 27th)

Any time you finish with a winning day from the Tennis Picks has to be appreciated, but it should have been a perfect day.

Irina-Camelia Begu was the only losing selection on the day, but she won more points than her opponent and somehow still managed to cover as the underdog. That one stung, but like I said after the difficult Friday, the selection was the right one in almost all the statistical categories bar the one that actually matters.

Those kind of losses hurt, because they have no right to lose, but I can at least point to the research and say it was a good call and just needed a bit more fortune to come away on the right side.

Hopefully Sunday can build on the positive Saturday and get this Miami Masters back on track.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: It has been a productive twelve months for Mackenzie McDonald and that has helped him improve the World Ranking to earn direct entry into the Masters events being played. He was beaten in the Second Round at Indian Wells, but an upset of a Seeded player has taken the American through to the Third Round in Miami this week.

Mackenzie McDonald is going to have to dig deep if he is going to beat the Number 2 Seed in the draw, although Alexander Zverev has had another difficult month on the Tour. The petulant display at the end of a defeat in a Doubles match in Acapulco saw Alexander Zverev thrown out of the Singles tournament there, but the controversy probably didn't help in the early loss in Indian Wells last week.

Losing to Tommy Paul will have hurt and Alexander Zverev will not want to be upset by another American player early in this tournament. Regardless, the German has been a consistent player on the Tour and he has become someone who can be very competitive on all surfaces, but a confidence boosting performance in Miami will carry Zverev forward when the clay court events come around next month.

The serve continues to be a big weapon for Alexander Zverev, but he did struggle through a tougher than expected Second Round match against Borna Coric. Over the last twelve months on the hard courts, Alexander Zverev has broken in 25% of return games played, but in recent matches there has been some real room for improvement on this side of the court.

Alexander Zverev should be able to get into the Mackenzie McDonald service games despite the strong performance in beating Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. The latter has held 74% of service games played on the hard courts in 2022, but the serve is vulnerable whenever Mackenzie McDonald has stepped to play a top 20 Ranked opponent on this surface.

Over the last twelve months, Mackenzie McDonald has been in that situation in seven matches and he has held just 57% of service games played.

One of those matches came against Alexander Zverev on an indoor hard court earlier this season, although the slower conditions in Miami are not expected to impact the World Number 4. The return game was working well for Zverev that day and in their two previous matches, he has been able to force Mackenzie McDonald to be under severe pressure when it comes to the serve.

The German has also been able to hold onto his own serve without too many issues and I do think Alexander Zverev is able to pull clear for a good looking win in this Third Round match.

Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Alexander Bublik: There is most definitely a feeling that Casper Ruud is improving at the rate of knots on the hard courts, but the next part of the season may actually be where he is most confidence. He has long been a very strong clay court player, but Casper Ruud may legitimately feel that he can challenge to win the French Open and even more so when you think of the issues that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic could be dealing with in Paris.

The hard courts are still a work in progress for Casper Ruud, but he has produced some solid numbers on the surface and has tended to be a player that has dominated those players he is expected to beat. A key for Casper Ruud is finding a way to be a lot more competitive when he has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but it is important to note that he has lost just three matches to those outside of those positions over the last twelve months.

Casper Ruud has held in 89% of service games played against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in that twelve month period, but backed it up with breaks in 30% of return games. This court and conditions should be one that Ruud enjoys as he looks to earn a measure of revenge over Alexander Bublik, who beat Casper Ruud in a Davis Cup tie earlier this month.

That was also a match played on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud had previously won all three matches between the players and two of those had been played on this surface.

Alexander Bublik has a winning record over the last twelve months, but his numbers have been anything but consistent and it does feel like he is overachieving. The serve can be decent on his best day, but Alexander Bublik has a relatively average return game and that is where his vulnerabilities can be exploited by some of the better players on the Tour.

I will take nothing away from the serve when Alexander Bublik is feeling his best, but you do wonder if the conditions in Indian Wells and Miami suit his game as he would like. He gave up nine break points to a pretty average opponent in the Second Round and I think Casper Ruud can earn some revenge with a good win in this match.

There has been a significant edge in favour of Casper Ruud in their service numbers from previous matches and even the loss in the Davis Cup tie came in a match in which he had created more break points. I think the superior tennis is still being played by the Norwegian and I think he can cover this spread on his way through to the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Update: 11-12, - 5.96 Units (46 Units Staked, - 12.96% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte II (March 27th)

I don't really like revisionist history or those who use outcome bias to determine how they feel about something... Instead I think it is only right to be honest about what you felt about something and admit when you have got things wrong.

Early in his career I saw Lawrence Okolie as an awkward fighter who is very big for the Cruiserweight Division, but one who had a tendency to fight very cautiously which led to some boring grab and hug fights when he has stepped up.

In saying that I did think he was going to be good enough to stop Krzysztof Glowacki, although I needed one more Round to bring home a winning Pick.

Regardless of that, I did think Lawrence Okolie produced a career best performance in completely befuddling a former World Champion and doing it in a very appealing style. Shane McGuigan should be given some credit for the work he is doing with the new World Champion, but I have to also credit Okolie for implementing the game plan to the highest level and I am now looking forward to seeing him back out there if he can build on this performance.

Lawrence Okolie unsurprisingly called out the other World Champions as he looks to Unify the Division and has admitted he is looking to go up to the newly formed Bridgerweight Division before ultimately landing with the Heavyweights where he also believes he can make his mark. Winning a World Title is clearly a very big personal achievement for Okolie, but I think it is also important that he would have gained some favourable feedback on the type of performance he put in to win that Title and it is going to lead to more willing to sit down and watch him when he is back out there.

No matter what people say, it is very important to be appealing to watch as much as it is to be a quality Boxer and Lawrence Okolie might be ticking both boxes going forward which will be a surprise to many, including myself. The talent was not really questioned, but the style had been and I hope he can push on an look to impose himself going forward in the manner he did to blow out Glowacki.

Artur Beterbiev was also back last weekend, although Adam Dienes will have left that fight with his stock higher than it was going into it. Shaking off the ring rust is important for Beterbiev who is looking to take on the other Light Heavyweight Champions later this year and potentially become the leading name to take on Canelo Alvarez in 2022 assuming the Mexican superstar Unifies the Super Middleweight Division in the remainder of this calendar year.

We also saw Vergil Ortiz Jr continue his rampage up the Welterweight Rankings with a win over former World Champion Maurice Hooker in Seven tough Rounds last weekend. The young man looks like a star in the making and doesn't want to be slowed down as he called out the very best names in the 147 pound Division for a bout later this year. I like the style, although Ortiz Jr looks like he is still short of the likes of Errol Spence Jr or Terence Crawford and another couple of fights at the level between Hooker and the elite of the Division could stand Vergil Ortiz Jr in good stead going forward.

A card that was scheduled to be showcased earlier this month has come around on Saturday 27th March and it is headlined by Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin who get set for a big rematch from a stunning upset seen at Fight Camp last August.

The Heavyweight Division is currently on hold as we look to see whether the two Champions Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua can agree a date for their first bout and that means the contenders are still waiting to see what they will do while waiting for a World Title bid.

Both Povetkin and Whyte are amongst the leading names looking to challenge for full World Title honours going forward, but this is a big rematch first. The WBC Title shot is unlikely to come before 2022, but the winner will have an Interim World Title Belt to carry around and it is a huge fight for both with the losing Boxer struggling where to go next.

A win for Whyte could set up the trilogy if Fury-Joshua are locked down for two fights, but it is a big night for the British Heavyweight who was stunned in the first fight several months ago.

There are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard in Gibraltar, while Queensberry have scheduled a couple of cards for Friday and Saturday as they showcase some of the talent they have under their promotional banner.

However, most eyes will be on the big fight in Gibraltar and especially after the fireworks seen the first time around.

Willy Hutchinson vs Lennox Clarke

The vacant British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Titles are on the line when Willy Hutchinson and Lennox Clarke meet in the main event of the Queensbury card coming live from London on Saturday evening.

The two Belts were fought for by Lennox Clarke in his last bout seventeen months ago, but he was on the wrong side of a Split Decision against Lerrone Richards. It was a close fight between two unbeaten fighters on the night, but Richards got the nod and has moved ahead without the Titles which gives Clarke the second straight opportunity to pick them up.

Once again Lennox Clarke will be in with an unbeaten fighter, although the man from the Midlands should still be confident with only the sole loss on his record. He is talking a good game in the build up to this Title bout, but it does have to be noted that Lennox Clarke has not really been in with too many high level opponents and his overall record may be a little padded.

He has certainly not been in the ring with too many like Willy Hutchinson, the unbeaten Scotsman who has looked very comfortable on his move up the Rankings. This is only the fourteenth fight that 'Braveheart' will have had as a professional, but big things are expected of him and so far he has met every challenger brilliantly.

No one will doubt that this is the toughest fight that Hutchinson will have had in the pro ranks, but he is plenty confident and hits pretty hard and that makes him dangerous. A decent amateur pedigree suggests the skills are strong too and I do think Willy Hutchinson is someone who can push on towards World Titles going forward.

I don't think Hutchinson is going to need to go looking for Lennox Clarke in this Title bout and I think we could be rewarded with a decent scrap. My issue for Clarke is that I am not sure he has the power to stand and trade with Willy Hutchinson through the entirety of the Twelve Rounds scheduled and the Scot can begin to break him down.

While we have yet to see Willy Hutchinson in with someone of Lennox Clarke's level and standing, I do think the former is above this level and will show that here. He has power and the skills and I think Hutchinson will be able to wear down Clarke who may find this is an opponent even better than the last unbeaten fighter he faced.

Being out of the ring for almost eighteen months is not ideal preparation for Lennox Clarke and I like Willy Hutchinson to keep pushing up the World Rankings with a big stoppage win.

Erik Pfeifer vs Nick Webb

A number of Heavyweight fights are scheduled on the undercard of the Alexander Povetkin-Dillian Whyte rematch this weekend and this is set to be a Ten Rounder.

Realistically I would be very surprised if we need the final bell when Erik Pfeifer and Nick Webb meet in the ring and anything less than a win for the former would likely make it very difficult to build on the unbeaten start to life in the pro ranks. Erik Pfeifer has a decent amateur record, but at 34 years old he can't afford a setback at this stage of his career and he is not exactly going up against one of the elite of the blue ribbon Division.

The German may have been a familiar name to British fight fans if he had been given the opportunity to fight Daniel Dubois last summer and since then Erik Pfeifer has signed on with Dillian Whyte. That suggests this is nothing more than a showcase fight against Nick Webb who has been stopped twice before in his career and not against elite competition either.

I am not sure Erik Pfeifer will be an elite Heavyweight, but he has a decent amateur career which suggests he will be better than Dave Allen and Kamil Sokolowski who both needed fewer than Five Rounds to stop Nick Webb.

The latter has put three wins on the board since the last of those defeats and won the Golden Robe at Ultimate Boxxer 6 in December 2019, but Nick Webb has not been in the ring since then. That is less time out of the ring than Erik Pfeifer, but I think his level has been found out and I do think Pfeifer will be able to take advantage of what has been a pretty short gas tank Webb has displayed previously.

It could be fun early as both let their hands go, but I think Erik Pfeifer can ride out any storm he faces and stop Nick Webb in the first half of this one. Dillian Whyte has signed the Heavyweight to fast track him up the Rankings and this will be a good chance for Pfeifer to show the watching public what he is about in a solid Division.

Chris Kongo vs Michael McKinson

Two unbeaten British Welterweights believe they have been overlooked by their peers both domestically and abroad, but Chris Kongo and Michael McKinson have an opportunity they can't afford to miss on Saturday evening.

It doesn't matter that both believe they should be operating at a much higher level and with a bigger profile. Boxing is a sport where you have to take your chances when they pop up and being on a big rematch undercard gives Kongo and McKinson a solid opportunity to try and steal the show and then move into a position where they can challenge the big names around the 147 pound Division.

Experience is very much in favour of Michael McKinson who is 19-0, but there is a concern about his power. Only two of those wins have been by stoppage, although McKinson has Knocked Down the last two opponents he has faced before winning by Decision. He is also a southpaw which can be very awkward to face and McKinson is obviously quite happy to put his Boxing together and pile up the Rounds.

I expect that will be the game plan in this big fight for McKinson who has not really had the stand out, eye catching win on the resume. However, Michael McKinson has won his last five fights against opponents who have lost a combined four times and I expect he will look to make life awkward for his opponent by moving and popping as much as he can.

The problem is the lack of power and I do think Chris Kongo will be willing to walk through what he has in front of him to land the big shots of his own. He has shown he has plenty of pop in the punches and Chris Kongo has found the stoppage in seven of his wins while building up the 12-0 record as a professional.

He did really impress in stopping Luther Clay during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August and I think that power edge is going to be critical in a fight where Kongo may drop some of the early Rounds as he gets to grip with where he expects the southpaw to be.

I do think McKinson has the skills to win this fight on the cards, but I believe the power will be telling when all is said and done and that favours Chris Kongo. The latter has had a decent amateur schooling which suggests he can win a Decision on the cards, but I think he will need to impose himself on Michael McKinson and hurt him to win this fight.

Both can come again even if they lose, but my feeling is that Chris Kongo may have a come from behind win here as he finds the power shots to force the referee to step in even when he may be down on the cards.

Ted Cheeseman vs James Metcalf

There are some solid names at Light-Middleweight in the British ranks and two of them meet for the right to hold the British Title at 154 pounds.

James Metcalf is the unbeaten favourite, but he has been out of the ring over the last thirteen months and the Liverpudlian has only fought a single Round since his stand out win in June 2019 over Jason Welborn. The rest of the fighters that make up his 21-0 record don't really leap off the page and even the win over Welborn will be questioned by some who believe he had seen his best days at that point of his career.

You can't really argue that, but Kid Shamrock will have the confidence of an unbeaten fighter and a win over Ted Cheeseman would set him up for some big North West battles against the likes of Scott Fitzgerald and Anthony Fowler. At 32 years old it is time for Metcalf to really start motoring up the Rankings if he is going to achieve something really big in his Boxing career and a win on Saturday will certainly put him in a position to demand some of the biggest names in Britain going forward.

Winning won't be easy against Ted Cheeseman who is looking to get his own career back on track after some inconsistent performances over the last couple of years. Some of that was down to issues Cheeseman had been having outside of the ring, but he sounds like he is over those now and the Londoner has operated at a higher level than Metcalf.

Ted Cheeseman had been beaten by Sergio Garcia and Scott Fitzgerald and been awarded a disputed Draw with Kieron Conway as his career stalled, but he did earn an important Decision win over Sam Eggington during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August. The underdog also felt he deserved the Decision against Fitzgerald, something that others agreed with, and I do think Cheeseman is more than the rough, come forward fighter he was earlier in his career.

in the last couple of fights he has showcased some of his Boxing skills which have been important for a Boxer who has been involved in a number of wars already. I expect Ted Cheeseman to try and impose his skills in this fight against James Metcalf too, but I also like the resiliency he has displayed which means he can step into the pocket and mix it with opponents if necessary.

I am a little surprised that Metcalf is such a strong favourite to win this fight as I do feel he has plenty to prove despite the unbeaten record. This is a considerable step up and I am not sure Kid Shamrock has the power to stop The Big Cheese in this one, while I have been impressed by the some of the Boxing displayed by Ted Cheeseman in his last couple of fights.

My feeling is that Ted Cheeseman is being written off a little too easily in this one and I will back the underdog to find a way to reach a level that James Metcalf has yet to display. It should be one of the fights of the night with both willing to stand in the pocket and trade big shots, but I think the superior Boxing may come from Cheeseman which will lead to a tight win on the scorecards as he picks up the British Title again.

Fabio Wardley vs Eric Molina

There are two Heavyweight up and comers who are under the guidance of Dillian Whyte these days and thus have an opportunity to perform on the undercard of this PPV fight.

Erik Pfeifer will be out earlier in the night, but Fabio Wardley will be in a spot where a lot more eyes will be on him as he looks to step up his level of competition. He might not have the same amateur experiences as Pfeifer, but Fabio Wardley feels further along as a professional and he will be looking for a tenth stoppage and an eleventh win from eleven fights.

A blow out win over Richard Lartey saw Wardley better the likes of Daniel Dubois and Nathan Gormon in getting him out in Two Rounds, and he has had two solid wins as he stepped up his level of competition in 2020.

Now he takes on a fighter who has been in World Title fights and shared the ring with some of the very biggest names in the Division. Eric Molina is definitely on the late road of his career, but he will look for the experience gained from fighting the likes of Deontay Wilder, Anthony Joshua and Dominic Breazeale to stand him in good stead.

However, Molina has not fought since a Third Round Stoppage at the hands of Filip Hrgovic in December 2019 and that kind of lay off is hard to ignore. All six previous losses have been by Stoppage too and I do wonder if there is going to be much will to stand up to the kind of test a young and hungry fighter like Fabio Wardley will bring to the ring.

The British fighter is athletic and looks to hit plenty hard enough to beat Eric Molina at this stage of his career and the only question for me is how long the latter is able to last. The first two defeats in his career came in the First Round, but Eric Molina was able to reach the Third Round against both Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic.

Matching those results will be very impressive by Fabio Wardley if he can do that, but the young Heavyweight has admitted that he may need to weather some of the early storm before imposing his will on this fight. As I have said, the biggest question may actually be how much Eric Molina is going to want to take from a younger, fresher Heavyweight and I am not buying into the words of the American when he suggests he has found holes that can be exploited.

I think this fight is like to go a few Rounds, but Fabio Wardley has only allowed a single opponent to get past the Fourth Round and that was a rugged Argentinian who was eventually Stopped in the Sixth Round. Eric Molina has not shown the same kind of resistance even though he did make it to the second half of the bouts with Dominic Breazeale and Deontay Wilder before being undone.

The defeat to Breazeale was in late 2017 and Eric Molina has only had two fights since then which suggests he could be a little rusty in this one too. Fabio Wardley might need a touch longer than he did against Richard Lartey, but I would not be surprised if he matched Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic in producing a Third Round finish.

Even if Molina is able to get out of that Third Round, I think the tide would have turned by then and Fabio Wardley has shown the finishing power to make sure the American veteran is not able to hear the bell to signal the start of the Fifth Round.

Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte

I had a look back at my thoughts before the first fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin which ultimately concluded that I believed Whyte would win by Stoppage.

Back in August I felt that some of the punch resistance from Alexander Povetkin had gone having shown vulnerability in the Draw with Michael Hunter, and also the fact that he had been hurt by David Price. I figured Dillian Whyte had the power to hurt Povetkin even more than Hunter, but did write that I would not be that surprised if Alexander Povetkin was to hurt the British fighter too.

Much of what I had written seemed to be coming to fruition, but I did not figure Povetkin would find the punch he did to basically KO Dillian Whyte before he had even hit the floor. It was truly the most special of uppercuts and that coming in the Round immediately after being put on the canvas twice himself.

No will have doubted the amateur experience of Alexander Povetkin which meant he was showing off some of his skills in the first fight as he targeted the Dillian Whyte body, but the reduction of punch resistance was evident having been put down twice. Neither of the punches that put Povetkin on the floor were clean and it does suggest that a more aggressive Dillian Whyte might be able to earn plenty of revenge in this rematch.

I am usually of the feeling that you can't really recover from a Knock Out defeat in a rematch, but there are exceptions to the rule. Anthony Joshua showed that against Andy Ruiz Jr and I do think Dillian Whyte will be desperate to right what he will feel was a wrong in losing the first fight.

Alexander Povetkin is that much older now and he has also had to battle against Covid-19 since winning at Fight Camp and I do think he will need to find a special punch to win this one. Dillian Whyte could decide to keep things at range a little longer than he did in the first fight, but he will also know he can hurt the veteran and this time I don't believe Whyte will hold off when he does put Alexander Povetkin in trouble.

There are going to be denials now, but I do think Alexander Povetkin was close to being pulled in the first fight before finding his best punch. If he gets too carried away with looking for the one punch to turn things again, I expect Dillian Whyte to use the jab and heavier shots to hurt the veteran who does look like his best days are behind him.

Some are expecting this one to go much longer than the first fight, but I think we will see a similar fight develop with Dillian Whyte being a touch more aggressive to make sure he doesn't allow Povetkin to stick around. Anthony Joshua took Seven Rounds to get Alexander Povetkin out after getting through an early storm, but I think Dillian Whyte will have more control from the first bell and this time he will be the one with the big Stoppage win and likely earlier than Joshua managed to do against the Russian former World Champion.

MY PICKS: Willy Hutchinson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Erik Pfeifer to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Chris Kongo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ted Cheeseman to Win @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

Fabio Wardley to Win Between 3-4 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dillian Whyte to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 7-14, - 5.18 Units (40 Units Staked, - 12.95% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 5 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 27th)

It has not been a very good day for the Tennis Picks on Day 4 at the time of writing, but I am going to be updating the Miami Masters numbers on Saturday.

As poor as the day has been, I am still hopeful it won't completely erase the start to the week that has been made, but that will only be decided once the selections that are scheduled to be played later in the day complete their matches.

On Day 5 the WTA Third Round begins, while the ATP tournament completes their own Third Round line up with the remaining Second Round matches scheduled. Windy conditions on a slower court is making life a little more difficult for the players heading out there, but I am hoping that the following Tennis Picks get this tournament back on track.

I have had a busy Friday so I am not going to be able to write out full analysis for the Tennis Picks, but I have managed to find the matches that have fit my criteria and I looking for a positive return from them.

I should have a few of the Tennis Picks written out for the Sunday post when Day 6 is set to begin.

[UPDATE]: That was a pretty horrific day, but it happens and you just have to roll with the punches and accept it is 'one of those days'.

I didn't have much luck early and it seemed to snowball through the day, but you have to take it as it comes. Hopefully Day 5 will be a lot stronger all in all.

MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics-Thanasi Kokkinakis Over 22.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 11-9, + 0.96 Units (40 Units Staked, + 2.40% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 27th)

Tuesday was a little more frustrating than Monday, but these things happen and I am not going to be negative about a week which is still producing a positive return.

The Miami Masters has reached the business end of the tournament with the WTA Premier Event Semi Final line up being put together by the end of Wednesday and the first of the ATP Masters Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.

There are five matches scheduled to be played on Wednesday as we get down to the final few days of the first half of the hard court season. The next hard court events on the main Tour will be played at the end of July when we will begin the run towards the US Open, and many players exiting in Miami will be heading to Europe and beginning preparation for the clay court season which will begin next week.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Qiang Wang: Winning two matches to reach a Premier Event Quarter Final is rare, but that is the case for Qiang Wang who has benefited from Serena Williams being forced to withdraw from the tournament in Miami. Wins over Johanna Konta and Yafan Wang have come in straight sets, but this is a step up for Wang against a player who is chasing to return to World Number 1 ahead of her favourite time of the season.

Simona Halep is a quality operator on the hard courts, but I don't think it is wrong to suggest that the clay courts are her favoured surface. The two month run to the French Open begins at the end of this week, but Halep has remained very consistent and can return to World Number 1 if she wins the title in Miami after Naomi Osaka's early exit.

The Romanian has dropped one set in three matches so far this week and Halep dominated Venus Williams in a comfortable win. This is a match in which the Halep serve will be tested, but she is returning very well in the conditions in Miami which may suit her game and I think that returning ability is going to put Qiang Wang under some pressure.

I have no doubt that Wang is an improved player, but she has yet to really put wins together against the very best players on the WTA Tour on the hard courts. A 10-10 record against top 20 opponents on this surface over the last fifteen months isn't horrible, but her numbers have taken a big dent compared to her overall hard court ones when she has been in those matches.

You can't completely draw a line through Wang considering her own ability to return serve, but I do thinK Simona Halep has an edge over her on that side of her game. I expect that will show up in this match and I can see Halep edging Wang out with at least one more break of serve in each set of a straight sets win and I think she is worth backing to cover the slightly smaller spread being offered by a couple of layers.

The odds are reflected in that smaller handicap, but I like Halep in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-3, + 4.38 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.33% Yield)

Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (March 27-29)

I am not a big fan of the international breaks, but the Euro 2016 Qualifiers are almost reaching very important times for some of the teams looking to make their way to France next summer. For the majority of the 'big' nations, it looks plain sailing, but teams like Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have some work to do and games this weekend are very important for them to get back on track.

There is a range of games being played for television coverage over the next three days so you're bound to find some entertainment, but I can't wait to roll back with the Premier League next weekend.


England v Lithuania Pick: I don't think there is anything wrong in saying that England are not always the most entertaining team to watch and this game is not one that looks set to get the pulse racing for fans on a Friday night. The tension of qualification has almost gone thanks to wins over Switzerland and Slovenia and the additional places to qualify for the extended Euro 2016 tournament in France and attendances to England games have dropped.

All credit to Roy Hodgson for getting on with things, but the only way he will keep the media off his back is if England run out comfortable winners on Friday.

And they should do just that... Lithuania are not the best travellers and have found the best teams they have played to be far too good for them for the most part. Heavy losses in Bosnia and Switzerland over the last two qualifying campaigns suggest England shoul be routine winners, while England themselves have scored at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 qualifiers at Wembley Stadium.

In Harry Kane, England have someone in red-hot form and the home team should show the difference in levels between these teams and win by at least three goals I feel.


Kazakhstan v Iceland Pick: This is the kind of qualifier that Iceland have to circle as a 'must win' game if they have serious ambitions of qualifying for their first major international tournament, especially knowing they have to visit Turkey and the Netherlands later in the Group.

Kazakhstan are a competitive team, but they have struggled defensively which should mean Iceland have chances to score the goals to carry them to three points in this one. However, Kazakhstan have also scored against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey which makes them a danger to a team like Iceland who have to play pressure-free football.

I seriously considered backing Iceland on the Asian Handicap considering Kazakhstan have lost their last three games by two goals each, but the attacking threat the home team clearly has can't be under-estimated. They have scored in 7 of their last 13 home qualifiers and a fair few of those have come against teams of Iceland's level.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan have lost a lot of those games and backing both teams to score in a game Iceland win has to be worth a small interest.


Andorra v Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina heading into this latest qualifier as another failure to win might be enough to put them out of the European Championship. They have had some disappointing results in the qualifiers so far, but this would be the ultimate embarrassment if they ended Andorra's run of 48 straight qualifier losses.

However, it has to be remembered that Andorra are unlikely to just roll over and play dead as the have troubled plenty of visitors to them in recent games. The fact remains that only 4 of 12 visitors have scored three or more goals against Andorra, although Bosnia do have the attacking talent to get to that number.

The big question for Bosnia is whether the change in the calendar year has been enough to change the mindset and finally put the World Cup to the back of their minds. This is a team that scored a lot of goals in wins in Liechtenstein and Latvia in the World Cup qualifiers and they are capable of putting Andorra to the sword in this one.

An early goal would definitely settle the Bosnian minds and I like them to prove they are still alive in this Group with a routine and comfortable win in Andorra.


Belgium v Cyprus Pick: This is an important week for Belgium who are looking to get their qualification campaign back on track as they face Cyprus and Israel in the coming days. Wins in both of those games will make Belgium the favourites to top the section, but dropping any points and the pressure really is on as they look to finish in one of the top two places in the Group.

To be honest, the two automatic qualifiers and third place being sent into the Play Offs means it would take a huge upset for Belgium to fail to have the chance to play in France next summer, although they can't allow complacency to set in and just think they have to turn up to right the situation.

They should be far too strong for a Cyprus team that has a number of injuries affecting the squad they were able to pick for this qualifier as well as the fact that they have been a poor traveller in competitive games. Cyprus have lost 9 of their last 10 away qualifiers, although they have to be respected for keeping the score down in the majority of them.

Belgium are not exactly a team that is going to put up big numbers in terms of goals themselves, but the injury crisis for Cyprus may make things easier for them in this game. If Belgium get their noses in front early, this could be one-way traffic for much of the ninety minutes and I will back the home team to really get qualification back on track with a convincing win.


Netherlands v Turkey Pick: This is a huge game for both the Netherlands and Turkey where the winner will feel their European Championship qualifying campaign is back on track, while the loser would begin to wonder if they are going to make it to France next summer.

It is a bigger game for Turkey, but home advantage should give the Netherlands the edge in the match and I expect they will prove too strong. For all the disappointment of losing to the Czech Republic and Iceland, the Netherlands know destiny is still with them as they host both of those teams later in the Group, while they have won 17 home qualifiers in a row.

Most of those wins have come with some relative comfort and the Netherlands beat Turkey 2-0 at home and away during the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Brazil. While they have struggled to match the results they achieved last summer, the Netherlands have been very good at home in these kinds of games and I will back them to win this one with room to spare.

MY PICKS: England - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Iceland to Win @ 4.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

March Update: 27-16, + 27.96 Units (79 Units Staked, + 35.39% Yield)

February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (March 27th)

There were a number of surprising results through the tournament at Indian Wells and it doesn't look like things will be changing in Miami if Maria Sharapova's exit in the Second Round is anything to go by. I really thought she had a chance to go deep into the draw over the next two weeks, but Sharapova has disappointed this week, although she might feel the turn to the clay courts favours her more than she would have in previous years.


The Second Round of the Masters event will begin on Friday which means the top players are all making their first appearance at Crandon Park this week and that can be a dangerous time for them. They will be playing opponents who have at least one win under their belt and will have dealt with the conditions already this week and might find a way to surprise any of the Seeded players they run into.


It was a mixed bag of results for the picks on Thursday as the four ended up with two winners and two losers, although it was a bad start with the first two both losing before the recovery on the day. In that regards I have to say I am not too disappointed, and it is still a good start to the week.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Donald Young: I backed Andy Murray to beat Donald Young handily when they met on the indoor hard courts during the Davis Cup earlier this month and the British Number 1 didn't disappoint. That continues his dominance over Young since being surprised by him at Indian Wells four years ago and Murray has won the next four matches all very comfortably.

The problem for Young is that his serve, despite being an awkward left-handed one, is not the best and players like Andy Murray return enough balls back into play to extract errors from his game. It sounds harsh, but I think Young is guilty of over-estimating what he can produce on a tennis court and that leads him to going for 'Hollywood' shots that have little chance of actually coming off.

Someone like Murray can make Young play a lot of shots to win points and can grind him down and I would expect a fairly comfortable time for him in this match as long as he serves well. It was Rafael Nadal's serving that kept Young in the match against the Spaniard at Indian Wells and Murray can be guilty of being sloppy in that aspect of his game.

However, the match up is clearly one that he has enjoyed and a routine 64, 62 win could be on the cards.


Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Two left-handed players meet in this Second Round match and I have to favour Adrian Mannarino to find a way to get past Albert Ramos-Vinolas on the hard courts.

The latter is a decent player that has produced some good performances on the hard courts in the past, but Ramos-Vinolas is definitely much happier on the clay courts. However, Ramos-Vinolas has to be respected having put together three solid wins over the last two tournaments at Indian Wells and here and he pushed Novak Djokovic much closer than anyone would have expected in the last Masters event.

In saying that, Adrian Mannarino is an improving player on the Tour who is Seeded at events of this level which shows how far he has come. He has been serving better than what I believed he was going to be capable of, while the return game continues to be one of his strengths.

I expect Mannarino will find a way to get his teeth into the Ramos-Vinolas service games and will end up using that pressure to come through with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v James Duckworth: This is another rematch from Indian Wells as Fernando Verdasco looks to take out James Duckworth for the second time in a row and I do believe the Spaniard will find a way to get that done.

All credit to Duckworth for qualifying for the second Masters tournament in a row and also coming through his First Round match which should improve his Ranking again having cracked the top 100. That will mean he could find himself automatically in the draw for the Grand Slam events upcoming which has to be one of his goals for the coming year.

Unfortunately for the Australian, tennis can be all about levels and I don't believe he has the serve to really trouble the better players. That also means someone like Fernando Verdasco can dictate the points off his return and I still believe Verdasco is playing well enough to beat Duckworth for a second time this month.

Their match at Indian Wells ended with a 62, 76 win for Verdasco and I think he will have a similar kind of margin of victory in this one with more chances to break serve than Duckworth is likely to have. However, Verdasco has to stay focused to get the job done as the second set was closely contested at Indian Wells, although I do fancy him to do that.


Lucie Safarova - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The last two months have been very good for Lucie Safarova as she gets closer to cracking the top ten of the World Rankings having won the tournament in Doha. The Indian Wells Premier Event has to be something of a disappointment to Safarova with a Third Round exit under her belt, but I expect a reaction in Miami and think she will be too strong for Johanna Larsson.

Larsson had a good solid win in the First Round against Yaroslava Shvedova, but Safarova is another step up in opponent and the Swede has struggled to raise her game in that regard. She is generally a much better clay court player than a hard court one and part of the reason is that Larsson tries to play with the same margin on error on the latter and is out-hit.

There is no doubting that Safarova is capable of doing that, while I also think she has the more consistent serve that will make it hard for Larsson to break. Not impossible mind you because Larsson will play from deeper in the court and try and extract errors from Safarova, which can be a problem for her at times, although allowing Safarova to dictate play isn't expected to be the right way to approach this match.

It is unlikely that Larsson takes a different approach though and the result should be a fairly comfortable 62, 64 win for Safarova.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: It is still very strange to see Victoria Azarenka outside the top 32 in the World Rankings, but a strong week in Miami could see her at least return to the Seeding positions for the big tournaments coming up.

As dangerous as Azarenka can be for any player on the WTA Tour, I think she would definitely prefer to ease her way into tournaments and not remain outside the Seeding positions and face early matches with the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova as she has had to already this season.

There are still some inconsistencies in the Azarenka game as she looks to recover from an injury-plagued 2014 when she was never at full tilt, but I do think she will be too good for Jelena Jankovic who had a long week at Indian Wells.

It was a surprising week for Jankovic who hadn't played that well in 2015, but who somehow dug deep to escape a couple of matches and use it to a run to the Final. Even with four days rest since that Final, Jankovic might still be feeling all the three set matches she had to play over the last two weeks as well as all the physical exertions she put into the Final against Simona Halep before ultimately coming up short.

Azarenka's serving hasn't been the best with too many breaks given up, but I still think she finds her way through to the Third Round following a 64, 63 win.


Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: Two young, hard-hitting American tennis players meet in this Second Round match that should bring in quite a bit of media attention. Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens are supposed to lead the next generation of American WTA stars once Serena Williams decides to hang up her racquet and both are expected to be at the forefront of the Tour.

However, I do feel there is more upside and potential in the Madison Keys game as she seems to play with a clearer though process on the court and has other elements on the courts beside the booming serve and heavy forehand. Stephens will look to play that way too and those who love first-strike tennis could be in for a fun day, but I think Keys has the better control of her shots off the ground and will likely dictate more of the points.

Sloane Stephens had the better Indian Wells tournament of the two players, but that was a sharp contrast to her recent form and I think she lets her mind wonder a little more on the court than Madison Keys.

After a lot of powerful winners and some eye-catching tennis from both players, I think Keys can battle through with a 64, 67, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-3, + 5.62 Units (18 Units Staked, + 31.22% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2014 (March 27th)

Yesterday was a frustrating day for the picks not because they went 2-2 for the day, but Roger Federer was beaten in his Quarter Final and means I am down to my final two players in the outright picks I made at the start of the event.

I have absolutely no idea what happened to Federer during the match against Kei Nishikori, but I have read his comments about being disappointed with his serve and that shot letting him down after being so strong over the last month.

The fact of the matter is Federer was a set and a break up, twice, but couldn't put away Nishikori despite my feeling that the latter may have been physically and mentally exhausted after his three set win over David Ferrer.

From the end of the first set to the conclusion of the match, the Federer serve seemed to disappear, but he will look at this week as one that could have produced so much more. He will be improving in the Rankings this week though and that is important as we get set to enter the clay court season and particularly when we get to Wimbledon where Federer will certainly feel he has one of the better chances to add to his Grand Slam career tally.


Novak Djokovic will be the strong favourite to win the men's Masters tournament after seeing off Andy Murray with the aid of a controversial point at the end of the first set. That seemingly played havoc on Murray's mind as he failed to make the second set competitive and now the Serb will be the one people will expect to win back to back Masters tournaments following his win in Indian Wells.

I am still hopeful that Rafael Nadal can win his first title in Miami having been a three time Finalist before, but the Spaniard does have the tougher tests ahead of him from here on out.


I also still have Serena Williams on my side and she must have hardened as the favourite to win the women's Premier Event and take her first title since before the Australian Open.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: The last two times Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova have played, the matches have been more competitive on the scoreboard than usual but a lot of that has to do with the way the Russian has saved critical break points.

Unfortunately for Sharapova, she is likely going to need to fend off plenty more in this match which is clearly one that excites Serena Williams and that is not a good thing for her opponent.

Williams was very complimentary of Sharapova in her press conference a couple of days ago, but there is a clear dislike between the players and the American likes to embarrass Sharapova where she can.

She was serving much better in her last two matches and that doesn't bode well for Sharapova... I think Williams will create the chances to win this match fairly comfortably and I will back her to take this match with a 63, 63 win.


Na Li - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Na Li has played pretty efficiently this week and I think it will be tough for Dominika Cibulkova to perhaps rally against an opponent that matches up very well against her.

Yesterday, Cibulkova fended off match points to beat Agnieszka Radwanska in the Quarter Final and had to win the match in three long sets.

It was poor serving that kept Cibulkova in real trouble as she was broken in 8 of her first 9 service games and any kind of similar performance today will see Li win comfortably.

This has been a good match up for Li as she has more power and the better serve of the two players, while also producing the consistent tennis that is enough to take away the speed and movement of Cibulkova. They played a three set match in the last tournament in Indian Wells, but that was down to a sloppy second set from Li and I expect this one to be a little more straight-forward.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: I have to say I am liking the change in attitude that Alexandr Dolgopolov is bringing to the court at the moment, but I am still yet to discover if he can handle the amount of tennis he has been playing in the last month.

Dolgopolov has reached a Final in Buenos Aires, a Semi Final in Acapulco and Indian Wells and now the Quarter Final here in Miami.

He is not someone that is used to this kind of consistent success and I think he will be pressured to breaking point by Tomas Berdych who has been in very good form in 2014 bar his early exit at Indian Wells.

Berdych should keep the pressure on Dolgopolov with his serve and I think he is returning serve a little more aggressively to keep his opponent off balance. I respect how well Dolgopolov has been playing, but Berdych is feeling confident and I think he finds the 76, 63 win in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Miami Update: 13-8, + 7.76 Units (42 Units Staked, + 18.48% Yield)

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 27th)

Hands up if you thought Tommy Haas would give Novak Djokovic a lot of problems, let alone actually beat the World Number 1? Unsurprisingly, I don't see too many hands but that was the situation last night as Haas played some outstanding tennis to knock off the Serb.

It was Haas that was the more comfortable throughout the match and his serving statistics were off the chart as the best returner in the Men's game could not put enough pressure on him. It just goes to show that Tommy Haas is still a very capable player on his day, although I don't know how he will follow that up as we get to the Quarter Final stage.

The upset also means my main outright pick this week, Novak Djokovic, is out of the tournament and I have only a couple of runners left. Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova should be in a decent position in the Women's draw, but it is Andy Murray, not Tomas Berdych, that is the most likely to take advantage of Djokovic's exit.


Tommy Haas - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: I usually avoid, or go against, players that have put together a huge win and then have to return to the court soon after, but Tommy Haas is an experienced player. The German is a former World Number 2 and has reached the latter stages of tournaments in his career so I am expecting him to be focused on reaching the Semi Final here.

I like his match up against Gilles Simon as Haas is very comfortable getting into the net off attacking shots and I think his aggression will put him on the front foot in this one. Simon is very consistent, but I think Haas can cut off some of the longer rallies by volleying away some of the chipped and loopy shots that Simon can begin playing when feeling he is defending.

The serve should favour Haas a little more in the contest and I think it is not a big surprise that the German has a 4-1 head to head record, including a couple of wins last season. As long as Haas doesn't suffer a letdown moment, I think he will be a little too strong and will be in the Semi Final.


Roberta Vinci v Jelena Jankovic: I know Jelena Jankovic is the bigger name in this match, but I am a little surprised that Roberta Vinci is the underdog as I think she has shown more consistency over the last twelve months.

In that time, Vinci has beaten Jankovic twice, both on the hard courts, and I think the Italian has the consistency to give Jankovic fits in this one. The problem for Jankovic is that she is still not sure whether she needs to be more aggressive or whether she should go back to the defensive game that took her to the very top of the Women's game.

Unfortunately, Jankovic has been by-passed by a number of players on the Tour, including Vinci, and I do think this is a match that will feature a fair few breaks of serve before falling the way of the underdog.


MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 15-7, + 15.30 Units (44 Units Staked, + 34.77% Yield)

Tennis Picks March 27th (Miami)

It seems the layers are a little ahead of the game so far in Miami and they are making it a little difficult for me to find something to lay my hat on today, even though there are 10 matches due to take place.

The only match that interests me is below:

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: The spread does look a little high, but I think Andy Murray can cover it as he has a very similar kind of game compared with Gilles Simon, but is a little better in all departments.

He has covered this spread in 5 of his 8 wins over the Frenchman and I think the exit of Tomas Berdych will make the British Number 1 believe the path is open to the Semi Finals at the very least.

Gilles Simon has picked up a bit of form in the last couple of weeks since he moved back on to the hard courts, but this represents a step up in class of opponent and I believe Murray will likely win 6-2, 6-4.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 7-7, + 0.81 Units (21 Units Staked)

English and European Midweek Picks (March 27-29)

On this thread I will put down my picks for the different matches taking place during the week as the First Legs of the Quarter Finals in both the Champions League and Europa League are scheduled, while we also have FA Cup ties and Championship fixtures.

As always, my picks will come in staggered periods over the next couple of days and I will update my Twitter page with a link to this thread whenever new picks are posted.

Apoel v Real Madrid Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13562-Apoel-Nicosia-v-Real-Madrid.htm)

Benfica v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13563-Benfica-v-Chelsea.htm)

Tottenham Hotspur v Bolton Wanderers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13564-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)

Sunderland v Everton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13565-Sunderland-v-Everton.htm)

Leicester City v Nottingham Forest Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13558-Leicester-City-v-Nottingham-Forest.htm)

Peterborough United v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13561-Peterborough-United-v-West-Ham.htm)

Marseille v Bayern Munich Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13570-Marseille-v-Bayern-Munich.htm)

AC Milan v Barcelona Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13571-AC-Milan-v-Barcelona.htm)


MY PICKS: Real Madrid win to nil @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chelsea to score first and fail to win @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jermain Defoe to score anytime @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Everton Both to Score @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Peterborough United-West Ham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Coral (1 Unit)
Marseille-Bayern Munich Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
AC Milan-Barcelona Over 2.75 Goals @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)