Miami Tennis Day 4 Picks 2026 (Friday 20th March)

The Miami tournament continues to play catch up after Day 2 was washed out, but the Second Round of the WTA event has begun and there should be plenty of matches scheduled from that Round on Friday.

Some of those matches will only be put together at the conclusion of Day 3 and so any further selections will be added to this thread.

The opening totals from the tournament will also be updated and added to this thread on Friday when all of the first four selections have been completed.

UPDATE: As expected, the Miami Masters event is trying to get back on track and that means all twenty-eight WTA Second Round matches that have yet to be completed are all scheduled to be played on Friday, which starts an hour earlier than usual on the outdoor courts.

There is also the conclusion of the ATP First Round and Second Round matches scheduled from that event and I have added selections from markets that were formed overnight.

The Miami totals have also been updated after the opening four Picks were completed late on Thursday evening.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: The peak of her career may be behind her, but that does not mean Ajla Tomljanovic is going to roll over for any opponent she faces on the Tour.

However, the gap is increasing between the Australian and the better players on the Tour and that will mean matches are taking away from her, even if she is giving her all on the court.

Ajla Tomljanovic has never been higher than World Number 32, but she is operating with a number 81 next to her name these days- after a slow start to the 2026 season, Tomljanovic has reached the Quarter Final in Austin and the Third Round in Indian Wells where she was able to upset a Seeded player in the Second Round.

That was the Number 30 Seed in Indian Wells, but in Miami she is facing not only a top ten Ranked opponent, but someone who has reached Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open last year and a player who is very comfortable on this surface.

Amanda Anisimova did reach the Fourth Round in Miami last year, but another good run here and moving past that stage would see her edge that much closer to the top four places in the World Ranking. The 24 year old has become an all-court player and credit has to be given to Anisimova for putting together stronger numbers on the clay courts and grass courts in 2025 compared with the hard courts, which suggests this is a player that is a threat at all four Grand Slams played.

The Fourth Round loss in Indian Wells will have been something of a disappointment, but Amanda Anisimova has been a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open and Semi Finalist in Dubai and over the last twelve months she has been dominant when facing players outside the top 50 of the World Rankings on this surface.

The numbers have backed up the strong scoreboard wins and the American should have too much for veteran Ajla Tomljanovic- the latter has won the two Tour meetings, but one was back in 2017 and the other in 2021 and it was Tomljanovic who was Ranked higher on both occasions.

It is much different now and the Amanda Anisimova aggressive ball-striking should give her the edge in this match, while covering this big line is also well within her scope.

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Zeynep Sonmez: Coming through the Qualifiers and reaching the Australian Open Third Round has raised the Zeynep Sonmez profile, although that has perhaps meant expectations have also not been easy to meet. The 23 year old received a lot of support through the Middle East swing soon after her run at Melbourne, but three opening defeats has just reminded people that Sonmez still has some developing to get through if she wants to move up the World Rankings.

At the moment Zeynep Sonmez is the World Number 83 and her career best mark was set in October at Number 69.

She reached the Quarter Final in Merida since the Middle East swing ended without any victories and Zeynep Sonmez has won First Round matches at both Indian Wells and here in Miami. However, the run ended in Indian Wells in the Second Round and it is going to take some effort for Sonmez to beat the World Number 12 in the Second Round at this tournament.

Belinda Bencic dropped more Ranking Points when losing in the Fourth Round at Indian Wells last week, but she has nothing to defend here in Miami and the Swiss star is going to want to push back into the top ten ahead of the clay court season. Number 4 is still the career high for Belinda Bencic, but she has returned to the Tour after becoming a mother and there remain real ambitions to win a Major title.

After winning all five matches at the United Cup in early January, it has been more of a struggle for Belinda Bencic who has won four of seven matches played since that opening tournament. She was in good shape in Indian Wells before losing to Jessica Pegula in a competitive match and that will bode well for Belinda Bencic who will be looking to put a confidence boosting run on the board ahead of the build up towards the French Open.

She has particularly thrived when facing those opponents she would be expected to beat, namely those who are Ranked lower than her when entering the court- over the last twelve months, Belinda Bencic is 19-3 in those matches and her numbers have backed that up with noticeable improvements on the serve and return.

Underestimating Zoynep Sonmez would be a mistake considering the Turkish player has a 3-4 record over the last twelve months on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents. The underdog has won both matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in that time and with nothing to lose, Sonmez can become dangerous.

It should be noted that Zoynep Sonmez has come out of those two matches by just edging the very fine margins and that is hard to sustain.

A confident Belinda Bencic can be very tough to stop on the hard courts and it may be that the higher Ranked player can win a few more easy points behind the first serve that allows her to control this match. This will also mean Bencic can take a real swing on the return of serve and ultimately it may end up with the more experienced player coming through with a solid win on the scoreboard.

Clara Tauson - 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: Eighteen months ago, Katie Boulter was moving into her career best World Ranking mark of Number 23 and looking very capable of breaking into the top 20.

Injury and a loss of form prevented that happening and Boulter has struggled to get herself going again with her current World Ranking down at Number 67. A First Round win will help, but Katie Boulter has work to do if she is going to be in a position to be Seeded when Wimbledon comes around later this year.

She did not play badly on the clay courts last season so an opportunity will come up if Boulter can build up some confidence and momentum by earning an upset in the Second Round in Miami. These big WTA 1000 events makes it very difficult for any player to put together strong runs considering the quality of competition very early in the tournaments, but that is especially the case for those that begin in the First Round like the British player had to do.

Familiarising herself with the conditions has to be a positive, but a Second Round match against Clara Tauson is a tough prospect.

The 23 old is the World Number 16 and her hard court numbers have been pretty good this season, even if the results have not always backed that up. Consistency is a good thing for players like Clara Tauson who has a powerful serve on this surface, although there is room for improvement when it comes to the return.

Those improved numbers have been there over the last twelve months when Clara Tauson has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 50 and she came through a Second Round match in Indian Wells against such an opponent. However, the Dane will have been really disappointed to have lost a tight match against the World Number 92 in Talia Gibson and that is the kind of result that Katie Boulter must use as a form of encouragement about her own chances.

A career long problem for Katie Boulter has been facing the better players on the Tour on this surface- she has won just 32% of matches against top 50 Ranked opponents and that drops to 15% when only considering top 20 opponents.

Katie Boulter is 1-5 against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months in hard court matches and she would be 3-3 when it comes to covering this handicap mark. That is 2-3 when only considering the matches she has lost and the feeling is that Clara Tauson has a bit too much power behind her strokes, which will give her the edge in this contest.

The sole previous meeting ended in a routine win for Clara Tauson back in 2022, but that is largely irrelevant now- despite that, the higher Ranked player should still have a bit too much for Boulter and she can cover this handicap mark in this Second Round match in Miami.

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Christopher O'Connell: Another Qualifier looking to use some of the momentum and familiarity of the conditions in his favour is Christoper O'Connell, but he has once again been drawn to face Marton Fucsovics.

That did not go so well in Indian Wells as the Australian was beaten pretty handily, but some believe the courts in Miami will play a little faster and that should help.

However, it is the second one-sided loss suffered against the veteran over the last twelve months, albeit the first on a hard court, and Christoper O'Connell has been struggling for consistency to open 2026. That is underlined by his drop into World Number 130 and there has been some pressure on the O'Connell serve, which is not operating at the kind of standards he has set previously.

He struggled against Marton Fucsovics in Indian Wells and the latter ended up reaching the Third Round at that event in what has been a pretty inconsistent start to the season for him too.

Marton Fucsovics is 34 years old now, but he still has a decent game on the courts.

On the main Tour, Marton Fucsovics is 7-2 on the hard courts when facing those Ranked below him and that is over a twelve month sample.

Not only has he held 88% of his service games in that time, but Fucsovics has created constant pressure on the return with 32% of return games ending in a Break and that was shown in the Indian Wells win over this opponent.

If Christoper O'Connell serves well, this is a dangerous spread, but Marton Fucsovics has all of the tools he needs to overcome the mark and move into a Second Round match against the Number 7 Seed in the draw.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Clara Tauson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 3-1, + 2.35 Units (4 Units Staked, + 58.75% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 3rd)

The dominating win for Iga Swiatek over Naomi Osaka has underlined her position as the best player on the WTA Tour and completing the 'Sunshine Double' on the hard courts is an impressive performance. The last time that happened on the WTA Tour was when Victoria Azarenka completed the same double in 2016 and I think the soon to be World Number 1 is going to be a strong favourite going into the French Open.

Iga Swiatek is a former French Open Champion and the clay courts have long been her favoured surface, although the improvements on the hard courts are impossible to ignore.

On Sunday the Miami Masters comes to a close with the ATP Final to be played by two young guns on the Tour. Both Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud will feel they are ready to challenge for the biggest prizes in the sport already, but winning a Masters will just pump that confidence further and ahead of a portion of the season where both players are going to be feeling very comfortable.

I am hoping it will be a more competitive Final than the WTA one ended up being.

Casper Ruud + 3.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: He has reached his first Masters Final and I am expecting this is going to be the first of many big Finals that Carlos Alcaraz is going to play in his career. The stunning improvements made by the youngster over the last twelve months has excited tennis fans who have long been waiting for a really special talent to break onto the scene as the big names have reached the back end of their own careers.

Barring distractions off the court or injury, Carlos Alcaraz is almost certainly a World Number 1 in the making and I would be surprised if he is not able to pick up a huge amount of Grand Slam titles in the years ahead. He does look to be grounded and looks to have a very solid support team around him and the confidence of Carlos Alcaraz cannot be doubted.

There hasn't been too many times when you have watched Alcaraz and felt the moment has been too big for him so I am not anticipating a host of nerves in the Miami Final.

Performances over the last couple of weeks on the North American hard courts have been impressive and the numbers have largely backed that up. In Miami, Carlos Alcaraz has been able to lay the foundation for his successes behind a solid serve that he has been able to hold in almost 97% of service games played in the tournament.

The breaks of serve have been harder to come by though and that has been the case in his last two wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Hubert Hurkacz. It is something that may encourage Casper Ruud who is also playing in his first Masters Final and who also is a young player that is much improved over the last couple of years, especially on the hard courts.

There will be pressure on Casper Ruud as he looks to win the biggest title of his career and he has yet to had the impact at Grand Slam level that Carlos Alcaraz achieved at the US Open last year. Despite that, Ruud has been a consistent player on the Tour and that has helped him into the top ten of the World Rankings, while this is a big chance for him to show that he is ready to take the next step in his career.

Casper Ruud has served well enough in the Miami tournament with holds in 91% of service games played, but the real edge for him has been the strong returning numbers that have produced breaks in 36% of return games. He had a much more straight-forward Semi Final win, but Casper Ruud has also produced some big wins in Miami and I do think he can push his younger opponent.

The Norwegian is a pretty big underdog, but I think he has played solid tennis in Miami and I think he will have learned from the experience of losing heavily to Carlos Alcaraz last year on a clay court. That result will have surprised Casper Ruud on his favourite surface, but I certainly think he is a capable performer on the hard courts and can at least make this Final more competitive than their match in Marbella was.

It isn't easy to oppose Carlos Alcaraz considering how highly I rate him, but Casper Ruud has played well enough in Miami to avoid another heavy loss to this opponent. Being the underdog should help Casper Ruud in this one with all of the expectation on the shoulders of his younger opponent, but Ruud is a very solid player on the surface these days and has arguably played the superior tennis in the tournament.

MY PICK: Casper Ruud + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 29-27, - 4.10 Units (112 Units Staked, - 3.66% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 2nd)

The two ATP Semi Finals both returned winners on Friday evening, but the Miami Masters has proved to be a tough tournament for the Tennis Picks.

I am disappointed with the efforts since the Australian Open, when a winning record was produced, but I also think I've been mainly happy with the way the Picks were identified and a couple of 'bad luck' moments proved to be key to the week.

Still, I am hoping to round out the week with the momentum picked up on Friday and I will be looking for two winners when the WTA and ATP Finals are both played over the weekend. The clay court season will begin on Monday with four tournaments scheduled before the move to Monte Carlo for the ATP Tour, the next big Masters event on the calendar.

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Naomi Osaka: It sounds extremely harsh to criticise a player who is performing at the kind of level that Iga Swiatek is producing, but I did think there were one or two nerves at the very end of her victory over Jessica Pegula in the Semi Final. She actually failed to serve out the match in her first chance to do so, but Iga Swiatek held herself together the second time around and more than deserved her spot in the Miami Final.

It has been six years since a player has been able to complete the North American double at Indian Wells and Miami, but Iga Swiatek is a pretty big favourite to do that. You can't argue with the form guide in general and her return has proved to be a big difference maker, although the soon to be World Number 1 is also a very effective server on this surface.

She hasn't dropped a set since the Fourth Round at Indian Wells and I am going to put some of the late drama in her Semi Final down to the fact Iga Swiatek was playing on back to back days. Nerves can be a problem for players when they set in, but you do have to think the amount of wins that have been put together will help as Swiatek gathers herself and prepares for this big Final.

This is an important match for Iga Swiatek to show that is the top player on the Tour right now as she prepares to face Naomi Osaka. We all know how strong Naomi Osaka can be on the hard courts and she showed her character in coming from a set down to beat Belinda Bencic in her own Semi Final, while the four Grand Slam titles won on a hard court means Osaka remains a massive challenge to overcome on the surface.

Naomi Osaka has played just as well as Iga Swiatek in this tournament and even dropping her first set of the Miami Masters did not distract Osaka in the Semi Final. She has been serving really well throughout the tournament, although there is room for improvement for Naomi Osaka from the Semi Final performance.

Her return is perhaps not as strong as the one that Iga Swiatek will bring to the court, but Naomi Osaka has a big all-around game and her heavy groundstrokes will certainly put the pressure on any opponent she faces.

There are some question marks about the mental strength of Naomi Osaka and this is a pressurised environment she has not had to deal with for a long time. I am not suggesting a four time Grand Slam Champion won't be able to cope, but I do think the opponent will also keep Naomi Osaka in a tough place and Iga Swiatek has had time to prepare for this match as she looks to win another big title on the hard courts in 2022.

These players first and only match came on the hard courts in 2019 in Canada and was won by Naomi Osaka- however, Iga Swiatek is a much better player now and playing at World Number 1 level pretty consistently. That level may be enough to eventually break through Naomi Osaka's game and I think Iga Swiatek can continue her dominating form with a strong win in the Miami Open Final on Saturday.

Iga Swiatek looks to have the edge when it comes to the return of serve and that is where I think this Final can be won.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Update: 28-27, - 5.70 Units (110 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 1st)

Naomi Osaka failed to serve out the match when leading 5-2 in the final set against Belinda Bencic and it was the moment which meant the Picks were going to have to settle for another mixed day of results.

Iga Swiatek was surprisingly nervous closing out her own Semi Final, but continues to pile up the sets and the victories and the Final looks like it could be a top one between two players that may be battling for multiple Slam titles in the years ahead. The WTA Tour has been desperate for a top rivalry and I do think the two Finalists in Miami are their best hope, especially in hard court events going forward.

The WTA Final is scheduled to be played on Saturday, but Friday is reserved for the two Men's Semi Finals. There is one underdog left barking in the draw, but two top ten players and another who has all of the potential to be a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and moving very quickly towards the top ten in his own right. It should be a very good day of tennis in Miami as the early hard court season winds down.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: When the new World Rankings are released on Monday, Francisco Cerundolo will find himself close the top 50 even if he was to lose in this Semi Final. That is a career best World Ranking for the 23 year old Argentinian and will open the door for Francisco Cerundolo to really build on things when the Tour moves onto the clay courts.

His run in Miami is not over yet though as surprising as it has been to see Francisco Cerundolo reach the Semi Final. It has been an impressive tournament for a player that had limited hard court experience on the Tour and who had been beaten early in both the events in Indian Wells and Phoenix, but Francisco Cerundolo has impressed having beaten opponents that have all been Ranked at Number 57 or better this week.

Another step up is likely going to be needed for Francisco Cerundolo, although his numbers have been very impressive in Miami. The conditions may suit someone who is very happy on the clay courts, but even then you have to be impressed by any player that has held 89% of his service games played and broken in 36% of return games.

Casper Ruud is not going to improve his Ranking unless he wins the tournament in Miami, but this has still been a very important week for the Norwegian top ten player. He has not always found his best tennis against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud has beaten Cameron Norrie and Alexander Zverev in the last two Rounds and those are wins that will give him confidence ahead of the move onto his favourite surface.

With the top Seeds largely fallen by the wayside again, Casper Ruud has every chance of winning this big title in Miami and he is a big favourite in this Semi Final and rightly so. His hard court numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months when facing opponents outside the top 20 in the World Rankings, while Casper Ruud has held 92% of service games played this week and broken in 33% of return games.

The return numbers are slightly inferior to the ones that Francisco Cerundolo has produced, but Casper Ruud has arguably played the stronger opponents.

His experience should also be a key and I do think Casper Ruud is going to produce a level of tennis that may be difficult for a streaking Cerundolo to deal with.

It isn't easy opposing someone who is having the tournament of his career, but Casper Ruud is the superior hard court player and I do think Francisco Cerundolo's inexperience will allow the top ten player to win and find the breaks of serve to cover this mark.

Hubert Hurkacz + 2.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: There is no doubting the talent of Carlos Alcaraz and I am a big fan of the young player already, but I am surprised to see him set as the favourite to beat Hubert Hurkacz in this Semi Final.

The defending Champion hasn't really put a foot wrong in the tournament and it is clear that Hubert Hurkacz is very happy in the conditions. The serve is proving to be a big weapon for the Polish player and he has held 93% of service games played in this tournament, while Hubert Hurkacz has stayed steady with his return as the scoreboard pressure has built up.

He has also had a little more time to prepare for this Semi Final having been scheduled to play in the early spot on Thursday compared with Carlos Alcaraz who played in the evening and was pushed that much harder than Hubert Hurkacz. Carlos Alcaraz was a little fortunate to come out on the right side of the match against Miomir Kecmanovic as he struggled with his return for much of the match, which has to be a concern when facing a server like Hubert Hurkacz.

The Spaniard has had a big tournament and backed up the strong run at Indian Wells as he moves towards the top ten of the World Rankings. His serve has been important in the conditions and Carlos Alcaraz has held 95% of his own service games, while he continues to thrive on the return and that makes him dangerous.

However, the overall numbers are just leaning towards Hubert Hurkacz and you have to believe the big serving defending Champion can do enough to keep this one very, very close.

Both have been very competitive on the hard courts and it just feels like being a close match, although I thought it may have been set as a pick 'em at worst. My slight edge is with Hubert Hurkacz so getting this number of games with the underdog is hard to ignore.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 26-27, - 9.14 Units (106 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 31st)

The Miami Masters has been a mixed bag of results, but I have been hoping for a touch more fortune than received earlier in the tournament.

Another slight. winning day is one thing, but I am looking for the big day which may still produce a winning tournament for the Tennis Picks before the clay court season gets underway.

Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: I have to admit that I was pretty surprised to see Daniil Medvedev as such a big favourite to beat the defending Miami Masters Champion in this Quarter Final. Another win would see Daniil Medvedev restore his spot as the World Number 1 having lost that at the end of the tournament at Indian Wells, while he has played well in Miami, but I have yet to be fully convinced that the Russian is at his very best.

He benefited from what looked to be a tired Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round, and while the numbers have been impressive, this is a step up in terms of quality of opponent compare with the players that Daniil Medvedev has beaten so far.

Daniil Medvedev is serving well and has held in 93% of the service games played, and I have to say that the return of serve has been at a level that we have come to expect from him. Over the course of the 2022 season, Daniil Medvedev has not returned as well as he would have liked, but he has broken in 37% of return games played in his three matches in Miami.

However, this is a Quarter Final against Hubert Hurkacz who won the tournament here last year and who has held in 94% of service games played in the Miami Masters in 2022. The three wins have not been in as impressive fashion as Daniil Medvedev has produced, but Hubert Hurkacz is clearly confident in the conditions and has backed up the serve by breaking in 37% of return games played too.

It certainly suggests he can push a player that Hubert Hurkacz has pushed in their three previous matches. Hubert Hurkacz beat this opponent at Wimbledon last year, but their two hard court matches after that were both won by Daniil Medvedev, although those both needed three sets to separate the players.

The Polish player has held serve in 93% of his service games played against Daniil Medvedev in their two hard court matches, while Daniil Medvedev has done the same. This has me leaning towards this Quarter Final surpassing the total games line with both players serving really well in Miami and I am not anticipating a lot of breaks of serve.

Another three setter cannot be ruled out either and I do think both of these players have been able to contain the threat from the other in their three previous matches. An early break could put the cover under threat, but I do think this could be a serve-orientated match with very little between Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz again.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: The improvements in the tennis are being seen in leaps and bounds for those following Carlos Alcaraz and I do think the young Spaniard could be ready to have a huge impact in the upcoming Grand Slam at the French Open.

It is the Slams where the casual fan will begin to take notice of Carlos Alcaraz, but for most this is a player that has shown he is ready to win big titles. His performances over the last couple of weeks in big Masters events on the hard courts shows Alcaraz is becoming an all court player, if he wasn't already, and he is a big favourite to reach the Semi Final in Miami.

He didn't panic when trailing Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round and Carlos Alcaraz looks like a player who believes he should be competing and beating the very best on the Tour. It won't be long before he is the latest Spaniard to reach the top ten of the World Rankings and the performances in Miami have been impressive.

The overall numbers on the hard courts in 2022 have been strong and Carlos Alcaraz has held 96% of his service games played here in Miami. The stand out reason for his successes has been the impressive, aggressive return which has put a lot of pressure on opponents and Alcaraz is backing up his serving by breaking in 31% of games in this tournament, a number which is remarkably down on his overall break percentage on the surface this season.

Miomir Kecmanovic is another player having considerable success on the hard courts this season, although his performances have been more surprising than the young Spaniard's performances. The win over Indian Wells Champion Taylor Fritz will have given Miomir Kecmanovic more confidence, while he has held 93% of his service games in this tournament and broken in 23% of return games.

It is the advantage on the return which makes me favour Carlos Alcaraz to win and cover this big spread.

As the tournament has progressed, Miomir Kecmanovic has been riding the margins more than Carlos Alcaraz who has been much more consistent in Miami. The serve has remained strong when Kecmanovic has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but he has not nearly been as effective on the return and I think there will be plenty pressure put on him by Carlos Alcaraz.

I have mentioned that Carlos Alcaraz needs to find a bit of improvement on his serve on this surface to make his life easier, but it has not been an issue when the Spaniard has faced those Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface. I expect this to be close for a while, but Carlos Alcaraz can build the pressure and that may see him eventually break down the Miomir Kecmanovic game and cover this spread on his way to the Semi Final.

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This looks like it has the possibility of being a really high quality Semi Final as Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic meet in Miami.

Both of these players have been in very good form in the tournament and both Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic are very confident hard court players. Their numbers over the course of 2022 have been impressive, but there does seem to be a confidence about Osaka which led to her winning multiple Slam titles on this surface at both the Australian Open and US Open.

The conditions have been pretty good for both players, but Naomi Osaka may be getting a little bit more out of the serve. That could be key to the outcome of the match considering how well both players are returning, but it does feel like it is a level that Naomi Osaka can maintain more than Belinda Bencic.

You can't ignore the fact that Belinda Bencic has a very strong record against Naomi Osaka, including winning all three of their previous matches on the hard courts. However, the last of those matches was played back in 2019 at the US Open and I do think Naomi Osaka is much improved these days as long as she can hold herself together mentally.

It feels like a tournament in which Naomi Osaka has felt much calmer, although the issue with backing a player like this is that you don't always know what you are going to get. Belinda Bencic is a steadier player and is playing really well this week, but I think Naomi Osaka can use her serve to keep the scoreboard pressure on the Swiss player and ultimately lead to a win and a cover of this spread mark.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The soon to be new World Number 1 on the WTA Tour has clearly been inspired with the top spot in the Rankings up for grabs. Even before Ashleigh Barty decided to hang up her racquet, Iga Swiatek had been motoring towards the very peak of the WTA Tour and winning the title in Indian Wells will have given her plenty of confidence.

It is a confidence which has carried over to Miami where Iga Swiatek has won all of her matches in impressive fashion.

The latest to fall at the feet of her consistency was Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final and the Polish player has yet to drop more than three games in any set played.

Jessica Pegula has won their previous match on the Tour, although she was a little fortunate that day in 2019 and I do think Iga Swiatek is a much stronger player on the hard courts than she was. The other benefit for Jessica Pegula is that she has only played eleven games in her last two matches to progress through to the Semi Final so should be in a strong shape to compete with the best player on the Tour.

Injuries have helped Jessica Pegula move past Anhelina Kalinina and Paula Badosa, while her wins over Sloane Stephens and Elena Rybakina have to be respected. However, those were close wins and Iga Swiatek is playing at a level above those players right now, which is likely going to put Jessica Pegula under pressure.

Her numbers in 2022 have not really been that impressive, although Jessica Pegula has served pretty well and that is going to be a key for her. If she can keep some sort of pressure on Iga Swiatek, this could be a competitive Semi Final, but I find it hard to ignore how well Swiatek has been returning serve on this surface and I think that will see her win another match by a good margin.

Jessica Pegula has not really returned as well as she would have liked so far this season and I think Iga Swiatek can overcome the fact she played late Wednesday night to win this match and cover another wide mark.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 24-25, - 8.78 Units (98 Units Staked, - 8.96% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 30th)

Monday proved to be the late show for the Tennis Picks, but Tuesday was not so kind as the Miami schedule was completed.

The late losses were a little disappointing considering the position both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz found themselves in, but it is what it is.

It is Quarter Final day on Wednesday as the Miami Masters rattles to a close this weekend. The WTA Semi Final line up will be completed, but half of the ATP Quarter Final matches are set for Thursday with half played today.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: After some difficult moments over the last month, the former Miami Masters Runner Up Alexander Zverev is hoping to go one better in 2022. The tournament looks an open one as we have gotten down to the Quarter Final stage and Alexander Zverev is playing really well.

He is going to need all of his best tennis when taking on Casper Ruud who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and had a rare success over a top 20 Ranked opponent on the hard courts when beating Cameron Norrie in the Fourth Round. It is a win and a performance that has to give Casper Ruud confidence, while the slow conditions on the main court in Miami will suit a player who is very effective on the clay courts.

This time he is playing an opponent who is in very fine form of his own and Alexander Zverev will not be worried about the conditions himself. The slower court gives him plenty of time to set up the big groundstrokes and the final match scheduled to be played on Wednesday night in Miami looks to be a very strong one.

Both Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev will be very happy with the way they have been serving in the tournament- both are holding 96% of service games played, but it is Ruud who has the edge when it comes to the return of serve having broken in 41% of return games played compared with Zverev's mark of 25%.

One difference is that it feels like Alexander Zverev is peaking in this tournament and he has shown improvement in each of his three wins in Miami. Casper Ruud was very impressive in his first two wins, but the victory over Cameron Norrie was more competitive than the straight sets scoreline suggests and I do think he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to compete with someone as strong as Alexander Zverev.

Over the course of 2022 there is nothing between these players in terms of numbers, but over a twelve month period it is Alexander Zverev who has put together the stronger hard court numbers. There has also been the massive difference in level of performance when Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev have played top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I do think the higher Ranked player deserves to be set as the favourite.

Even the margin of favouritism doesn't concern me.

Alexander Zverev has won both previous hard court matches between these players and both of those wins came in 2021. The German has yet to drop a set to Casper Ruud and he has held 94% of service games played in those matches compared with Ruud's mark of 63% and there has been a huge advantage in favour of Alexander Zverev when it comes to the point percentage won behind serve.

It should be a decent Quarter Final, but I do think Alexander Zverev is going to have enough in his tennis to win the match and also cover the spread on his way to another Miami Semi Final.

Paula Badosa - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The season has been a little inconsistent from Jessica Pegula and she has not reached the heights produced in 2021, but I think the standards set have contributed to the feeling that she is underachieving. A run to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open should have really been a spark for Jessica Pegula, but some earlier than expected losses have prevented her from really making an impact on the Tour.

Things may feel different in Miami where Jessica Pegula has reached another Quarter Final and she has yet to drop a set in her three wins here. She also benefited from only needing to play a single set in her Fourth Round win, but I am not sure it is going to be too much of a concern for Paula Badosa considering there has been a day of rest between those Fourth Round matches and this Quarter Final.

Jessica Pegula's biggest problem so far this season on the hard courts has been the struggle to really get into her return games. However, the American has been happy in home settings this week in Miami and she has managed to win 51% of return points played in her three wins here compared with her overall 41% mark in 2022.

I expect the return to be challenged by Paula Badosa who has proven to be a pretty effective server on the hard courts, although the second serve can be vulnerable at times. I do think Jessica Pegula will be able to have success attacking the second serve, but Paula Badosa's first serve has been effective and she continues to show plenty of consistency when it comes to her return of serve.

Paula Badosa can also stay on top of Jessica Pegula by continuing to get a high percentage of first serves in play- she is just shy of 70% of first serves made this week in Miami and that is a number that will certainly put Pegula in a tough spot when it comes to trying to build some pressure on her Spanish opponent.

I do think Paula Badosa will see plenty more second serves on current form and I think that will help the higher Ranked player work her way through to the Semi Final. Conditions here won't be too much of a bother for Badosa and I think she can do enough to secure a victory in a manner to cover this mark.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Petra Kvitova: The abrupt decision to retire made by Ashleigh Barty means the WTA Tour is missing their World Number 1, but Iga Swiatek is producing the kind of form that means she is going to take over that spot sooner than later. At this moment in time, Iga Swiatek is the best player on the Tour and I certainly think the Polish player is going to very confident going into the clay court season.

The former French Open Champion may be the player to beat when Roland Garros comes around at the end of May, but Iga Swiatek has made steady improvements on the hard courts over the last couple of years. She won the title in Indian Wells last week and Iga Swiatek has refused to be satisfied by the success as she has arrived in Miami with more titles on her mind.

Iga Swiatek's numbers on the hard courts in 2022 have been very impressive and she has won a couple of titles on the surface, which has to be respected. The serve has been decent enough, but it is the fact that Iga Swiatek has won 51% of return points played on the surface which has sparked the kind of successes she has enjoyed so far this season.

Her overall numbers have been really impressive in the Miami Masters- Iga Swiatek has served very well and she has won 57% of return points played in her three matches here. She has broken at least four times in each of her matches played, while Iga Swiatek has dropped serve just twice in the tournament and is performing with a lot of confidence.

Someone like Petra Kvitova could be very dangerous and at her best the left-hander is a very confident hard court player in her own right. She was a little fortunate to win in the Fourth Round, while Petra Kvitova has suffered some heavy losses on the hard courts including when winning just three games in her defeat to Maria Sakkari in Indian Wells.

Inconsistent results have contributed to average hard court numbers and Petra Kvitova has not been as effective on the return of serve as her opponent. The serve can be a potent weapon at its best, but Petra Kvitova's second serve could be put under pressure by someone who is playing at the level that Iga Swiatek is playing at.

The slower conditions in Miami have given Petra Kvitova a chance to have a full swing when it comes to the return and she has won 50% of return points played in the tournament, although she has not come anywhere near the numbers that Iga Swiatek has produced on serve. It is the Petra Kvitova second serve which has really been vulnerable in the tournament and I think that will be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.

This is a very big spread when you think of how good Petra Kvitova can be, but her hard court numbers over the last twelve months suggest she is going to need to turn back the clock and produce a special performance to be as competitive as she would like. At the moment, Iga Swiatek doesn't look like a player that is going to leave too many openings for her opponent to exploit and I will look for the soon to be World Number 1 to win and cover on her way to another Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 23-24, - 8.98 Units (94 Units Staked, - 9.55% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 29th)

It looked like it was going to be a miserable day in the office for the Tennis Picks on Monday, but a couple of late winners at least limited the damage.

The Fourth Round of the ATP Miami tournament is set to be played through the day and we have a couple of the WTA Quarter Finals heading out to the court on Tuesday. My selections from the matches can be seen below.

Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: These two players were supposed to meet in Indian Wells, but Jannik Sinner was suffering with an illness which meant withdrawing before the match was played. It allowed Nick Kyrgios to move through to the Quarter Final at the last Masters event, but this is a player who is performing at a very high level at the moment and looks to be much happier with his tennis than we have become used to seeing.

There are still some moments of frustration as he showed when getting into an argument with some of the crowd in the defeat against Rafael Nadal, but in the main Nick Kyrgios has been focused and he has produced some stunning numbers in 2022. His run in Miami has also been very impressive and the big serve is now being backed up with a little more focus on the return of serve, which is proving to be the key for a player looking to move back into the top 100 of the World Rankings.

Nick Kyrgios will know how tough life becomes when failing to earn automatic entry into some of the biggest events on the Tour, while he is a player that should be much closer to the top ten in the World Rankings as he once was. If he continues to serve as big as he has been, Nick Kyrgios will be a tough out for anyone left in the Miami Masters, but he has also broken in 34% of return games played and that is very impressive from any player on the Tour.

This will be another test for Nick Kyrgios, but Jannik Sinner has not really impressed in his two wins in the Miami Masters and has been pushed to the limit in both. He has been fortunate to win both matches too, but it is a shame that the layers are on top of the current form after I was given the chance to back the Australian as the underdog when they were meant to meet at Indian Wells.

Jannik Sinner has only held 81% of his service games played in Miami and he has broken in 20% of return games played and that is not really going to be good enough to beat Nick Kyrgios on his current form.

Plenty of time has already been spent on the court by the young Italian and, while I have to respect the fight being shown, I do think that could add up to have an adverse affect on him. Jannik Sinner is going to have to serve well to keep Nick Kyrgios at bay, but this is the player that I always felt was inside of Kyrgios and he looks capable of moving through to another Quarter Final on the hard courts with a good, strong win in this Fourth Round match.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: This may be a Fourth Round match, but both Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie may feel they will be able to have a very big impact at the Miami Masters if they are able to get past the other. Two players who are both Ranked inside the top 15 of the World Rankings have been very content in playing hard court tennis, but both Ruud and and Norrie are also happy on the clay courts and so the conditions in Miami look to suit their respective games.

Out of the two, it is Cameron Norrie who has won the biggest title on a hard court, but the left hander has not shown the same kind of consistency as Casper Ruud.

The numbers back that up, although it is hard to ignore the fact that Casper Ruud has yet to really find the tennis he has needed to beat top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in a consistent manner. Both players have losing numbers against those opponents over the last twelve months, but there is no doubting that Cameron Norrie has been the more consistent and competitive of the two players when facing some of the top names on the Tour.

A real problem for Casper Ruud compared with Cameron Norrie has been the inability to fashion more breaks of serve when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

It is something that is a factor in the match, but I do like the fact that Casper Ruud has beaten Cameron Norrie twice on the hard courts during the last twelve months. That has to give him confidence and especially as the Casper Ruud serve has been a big weapon for him in those wins, while the Norwegian has held 90% of his service games played in those two wins over Cameron Norrie.

He has also created 11 break points compared to just 2 for Cameron Norrie in those hard court matches and I do think Casper Ruud has the edge in this match. The top 20 results on the hard courts are a concern, but I do think Casper Ruud has faced the elite of the ATP Tour in the last twelve months and he will feel more comfortable in this match up.

Cameron Norrie has played really well on the Tour over the last twelve months and he is a much improved player, but Casper Ruud may be able to serve well enough to edge to the victory in a competitive match.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Update: 19-21, - 9.84 Units (80 Units Staked, - 12.30% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 28th)

It was a mixed day for the Tennis Picks on Sunday, but I am looking for a strong week to turn this tournament around and just get the results moving as I would like.

This is not always easy, but I have been a touch unfortunate this week- I am always the first to be self-critical where I feel my selections have been poor, but a couple of results turning would have put this week in a much stronger place all around.

Hopefully Monday will be the start of that turnaround with the entire WTA Fourth Round scheduled to be played, while the remainder of the ATP Third Round is completed too. This is the busiest day left in the tournament in Miami and there are some big games set to head to the courts.

The conditions have been very tough for the players, but those still in the draw have done what they can and there is a big prize to be won this weekend before we move onto clay court tennis.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was a tough Second Round work out for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he needed a bit more time on the court than he may have hoped when seeing off JJ Wolf. The first two sets saw Stefanos Tsitsipas struggle to really impose himself on the match before running away with the decider and that will at least give him some confidence in what is likely to be tough conditions in Miami in this Third Round meeting.

It also doesn't help that Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be facing a confident opponent in Alex De Minaur who has been enjoying his 2022 season. After a relatively poor year on the hard courts in 2021, Alex De Minuar has bounced back in 2022 and he was a much more comfortable Second Round winner than the opponent he is going to meet in the Third Round.

Alex De Minaur has not been as effective protecting the serve as Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he has been the stronger return player with his athleticism around the court and the ability to force opponents to hit one more ball being key to his success. He looks to be heading back in the right direction as far as the World Rankings are concerned, although a much tougher stretch is coming up with the clay court season soon upon us.

The real challenge for the Australian is to try and be more competitive when he has faced a top 20 Ranked opponent on the hard courts and, despite the improvement in 2022, Alex De Minaur is just 1-4 in that situation this season. A look at the numbers in those matches over a twelve month period shows the fall in the percentage of return games in which Alex De Minaur has broken serve, while his own serve has been even more vulnerable.

It is a reason I really do believe Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to get the better of Alex De Minaur, while you cannot ignore how well he has matched up in their head to head.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has won nine of their ten professional matches and that includes the last eight in a row. The Greek player has held serve in 85% of service games played between them, while Alex Di Minaur is down at 70% and the numbers harden when you only consider the seven matches played between the players on the hard courts, all won by Stefanos Tsitsipas.

At the moment confidence is an issue for Stefanos Tsitsipas and that may give Alex De Minaur an opportunity to turn the tide on the head to head, but I do think he has plenty to prove when facing the top names on the Tour. The feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is still serving well enough to put some scoreboard pressure on the Australian and that could see the cracks exposed in his tennis.

In better form I woul expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to be asked to cover at least one more game than this, but the spread is still in a good spot for the World Number 5 to cover in a winning effort.

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: After opening the season with a title win in Sydney, the last couple of months have been much more difficult for Aslan Karatsev and inconsistent results have been the feature of his time on the Tour. He has dropped back outside the top 30 in the World Rankings and another slippage will mean losing his Seeding when it comes to the Grand Slam events and that can spiral into more poor results.

The last couple of years have been very effective for Aslan Karatsev, but his numbers have taken a serious dent in 2022 on the hard courts. The one that stands out the most is the issues he has been having when it comes to the return of serve with his break percentage dropping 9% from his 2021 numbers and the ones being produced in 2022.

That is a major drop off for a player that has never had a dominating serve and it has put Aslan Karatsev under pressure. The real surprise has been the fact that the player has lost so many matches to opponents Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and Aslan Karatsev has to be respected considering he has won all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season.

He faces another one in the Third Round when Aslan Karatsev takes on the defending Miami Champion- Hubert Hurkacz has held 90% of service games played on the hard courts and broken in 22% of return games this season and he is still Ranked inside the top 10, although Hurkacz will need a strong tournament to hold onto that position.

Hubert Hurkacz has had some solid results on the hard courts, but he has yet to really have a stand out tournament and was beaten in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells last time out. The hard courts have been an effective surface for him and winning the title here last season may mean he is back in inspired settings, while he has been playing much stronger tennis on the surface compared with Aslan Karatsev.

These two players split two hard court matches in 2021, but it was the Hubert Hurkacz serve which had the edge in terms of the numbers.

On current form it is hard to imagine Aslan Karatsev turning the form on the heavy loss suffered at Indian Wells in the Autumn of 2021 and I do think a big serving day from Hubert Hurkacz could give him a considerable edge. It builds scoreboard pressure and Hurkacz has shown he can put enough balls back in play on the return to force mistakes from opponents and that may be the case here as I look for him to move through and with a cover too.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Saville - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 15-16, - 7.04 Units (62 Units Staked, - 11.35% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 27th)

Any time you finish with a winning day from the Tennis Picks has to be appreciated, but it should have been a perfect day.

Irina-Camelia Begu was the only losing selection on the day, but she won more points than her opponent and somehow still managed to cover as the underdog. That one stung, but like I said after the difficult Friday, the selection was the right one in almost all the statistical categories bar the one that actually matters.

Those kind of losses hurt, because they have no right to lose, but I can at least point to the research and say it was a good call and just needed a bit more fortune to come away on the right side.

Hopefully Sunday can build on the positive Saturday and get this Miami Masters back on track.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: It has been a productive twelve months for Mackenzie McDonald and that has helped him improve the World Ranking to earn direct entry into the Masters events being played. He was beaten in the Second Round at Indian Wells, but an upset of a Seeded player has taken the American through to the Third Round in Miami this week.

Mackenzie McDonald is going to have to dig deep if he is going to beat the Number 2 Seed in the draw, although Alexander Zverev has had another difficult month on the Tour. The petulant display at the end of a defeat in a Doubles match in Acapulco saw Alexander Zverev thrown out of the Singles tournament there, but the controversy probably didn't help in the early loss in Indian Wells last week.

Losing to Tommy Paul will have hurt and Alexander Zverev will not want to be upset by another American player early in this tournament. Regardless, the German has been a consistent player on the Tour and he has become someone who can be very competitive on all surfaces, but a confidence boosting performance in Miami will carry Zverev forward when the clay court events come around next month.

The serve continues to be a big weapon for Alexander Zverev, but he did struggle through a tougher than expected Second Round match against Borna Coric. Over the last twelve months on the hard courts, Alexander Zverev has broken in 25% of return games played, but in recent matches there has been some real room for improvement on this side of the court.

Alexander Zverev should be able to get into the Mackenzie McDonald service games despite the strong performance in beating Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. The latter has held 74% of service games played on the hard courts in 2022, but the serve is vulnerable whenever Mackenzie McDonald has stepped to play a top 20 Ranked opponent on this surface.

Over the last twelve months, Mackenzie McDonald has been in that situation in seven matches and he has held just 57% of service games played.

One of those matches came against Alexander Zverev on an indoor hard court earlier this season, although the slower conditions in Miami are not expected to impact the World Number 4. The return game was working well for Zverev that day and in their two previous matches, he has been able to force Mackenzie McDonald to be under severe pressure when it comes to the serve.

The German has also been able to hold onto his own serve without too many issues and I do think Alexander Zverev is able to pull clear for a good looking win in this Third Round match.

Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Alexander Bublik: There is most definitely a feeling that Casper Ruud is improving at the rate of knots on the hard courts, but the next part of the season may actually be where he is most confidence. He has long been a very strong clay court player, but Casper Ruud may legitimately feel that he can challenge to win the French Open and even more so when you think of the issues that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic could be dealing with in Paris.

The hard courts are still a work in progress for Casper Ruud, but he has produced some solid numbers on the surface and has tended to be a player that has dominated those players he is expected to beat. A key for Casper Ruud is finding a way to be a lot more competitive when he has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but it is important to note that he has lost just three matches to those outside of those positions over the last twelve months.

Casper Ruud has held in 89% of service games played against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in that twelve month period, but backed it up with breaks in 30% of return games. This court and conditions should be one that Ruud enjoys as he looks to earn a measure of revenge over Alexander Bublik, who beat Casper Ruud in a Davis Cup tie earlier this month.

That was also a match played on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud had previously won all three matches between the players and two of those had been played on this surface.

Alexander Bublik has a winning record over the last twelve months, but his numbers have been anything but consistent and it does feel like he is overachieving. The serve can be decent on his best day, but Alexander Bublik has a relatively average return game and that is where his vulnerabilities can be exploited by some of the better players on the Tour.

I will take nothing away from the serve when Alexander Bublik is feeling his best, but you do wonder if the conditions in Indian Wells and Miami suit his game as he would like. He gave up nine break points to a pretty average opponent in the Second Round and I think Casper Ruud can earn some revenge with a good win in this match.

There has been a significant edge in favour of Casper Ruud in their service numbers from previous matches and even the loss in the Davis Cup tie came in a match in which he had created more break points. I think the superior tennis is still being played by the Norwegian and I think he can cover this spread on his way through to the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Update: 11-12, - 5.96 Units (46 Units Staked, - 12.96% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 26th)

It would be an understatement to say Friday night was frustrating.

To put it bluntly, it was a downright piss take- if someone had told me every Pick had been cursed, I honestly would have believed it.

I don't care if I get things wrong- I adjust and try and bounce back, but I am annoyed that things seemed to be so against the selections from the 'x factor' point of view.

Some were horrible Picks, those you end up regretting pretty quickly and not always down to the outcome. One of the adjustments I have made is to try not to pick 'bad' players that are artificially high in the Rankings or simply over-performing and thus being asked to cover big spreads, but I made that mistake with Sorana Cirstea who duly responded by winning two games.

Whatever, that one is on me.

But what can you do when a player is up 4-0, 40/0 and somehow only wins that set 6-4? Elena Rybakina beat her opponent in almost every metric bar the scoreboard and missed the cover by one game. She had more break points in more return games, but didn't manage to get out of one service game when facing a break point and ultimately made safe passage through to the Third Round, but without covering.

Later in the day more statistical anomalies seemed to be haunting my plays... Grigor Dimitrov was down 7-3 in games, despite losing just 4 more points, while Madison Keys had won 7 more points and was at 9-9 in games.

Oh, and Keys had been leading 6-3, 1-0, 40/0 and also found a way to allow herself to be broken before missing another break point and of course allowing her opponent to break twice from two chances earned.

It's a day that has irritated me off beyond belief, but mainly because the results largely went against the numbers and that hurts more than when it's just a bad day in the office. Bad picks can be criticised, but bad luck is a killer when it adds up as it did on Friday.

But then you have to move forward and not allow that negative spiral to overtake the thought process. I have always said I don't mind if a few stats go against me if I feel the Pick is the one I would have made any other time.

Avoiding those I instantly regret is the key and I think I have gotten better at that, but winning Picks is the only thing that really matters.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Being down at World Number 85 means relying on Wild Card entries into some of the bigger events on the Tour, although Andy Murray would earn direct entry into Grand Slam tournaments. He can invest his all into this Masters event in Miami with the expectation that Andy Murray will not be playing competitive tennis until after the clay court season when the Tour moves onto the grass, a surface on which Murray could still be a real danger to almost any player he faces.

It has not really been the case on the hard courts in 2022 and Andy Murray has continued to struggle for the consistency he would have liked to display. A win over Federico Delbonis in the First Round was solid enough, but there is no doubting how much higher the level is expected to be when he takes on the Number 1 Seed in the Miami tournament.

Daniil Medvedev lost his grip on World Number 1 last week in Indian Wells, but the chances are that he will return to that position before the clay court season when Novak Djokovic is expected to return as countries lower their criteria for allowing athletes to compete. It is important for Medvedev to produce a stronger tournament than the last Masters considering his usual disdain for the clay, although there is a feeling that he is playing under some pressure as a Russian citizen.

The hard court numbers have remained strong in 2022, although not quite to the level that Daniil Medvedev produced in 2021. Daniil Medvedev is still serving very well, but he will be the first to admit that he will want to offer more resistance in the return games having had a slight drop off on this side of his tennis.

Andy Murray has a mixed record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2022, but it has been miserable when going up against a top 20 Ranked opponent. He has lost all four matches against this opponents, while Murray has struggled to get into return games and managed to break in just shy of 6% of return games played.

It is a number that is not going to cut it against Daniil Medvedev and even a look at how Andy Murray has played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months offers little encouragement. The British player has broken in 14% of return games played in that time and Daniil Medvedev did crush Andy Murray when they met on the hard courts in Brisbane in January 2018.

The Russian has gone from strength to strength since then and I think Daniil Medvedev can bounce back from a relative early exit at Indian Wells by winning this Second Round match impressively.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v JJ Wolf: For most players on the Tour, a run to two Semi Finals and the Final of another tournament would be seen as a good start to the season. Stefanos Tsitsipas has bigger ambitions than most though and he may see it as a failure that he has yet to add another title to his collection, while the early loss in Indian Wells would have stung.

The hard court numbers are some way below the levels he has reached over the last couple of seasons, but Miami offers one last chance to better those before moving on the clay courts. In recent years Stefanos Tsitsipas has been a real threat on the red dirt, but he would love to take a confidence boosting tournament into the start of the run towards the French Open and just restore any lost belief in his own tennis.

It might be harsh to suggest that will be the case, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has raised expectations around his tenns over the last couple of years and will not want to feel like he is stuck in this current spot. And while the numbers are not as impressive as we know he can produce, Stefanos Tsitsipas is still a very effective player on the hard courts and his Second Round opponent will be well aware of that.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and JJ Wolf met last month in Acapulco and it was the former who won their match for the loss of just a single game.

No doubt that will have been a painful lesson for the young American, but I do think JJ Wolf will be more competitive in Miami. JJ Wolf has already won three matches here without dropping a set, so will feel he has the conditions under control, and he has produced plenty more wins in recent hard court events in Acapulco, Indian Wells and Phoenix.

Many of those wins have come against players lower down the World Rankings, but wins are important for the mentality of any tennis player.

However, I can't ignore the fact that JJ Wolf has struggled to be competitive when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- his serve has been a little vulnerable in those matches, while the 10% of return games in which he has broken is not really going to cut it.

Home support will help, and I think JJ Wolf will be more competitive than he was in Acapulco, but Stefanos Tsitsipas should have enough in his overall tennis to win this match and cover the spread put in front of him.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Irina-Camelia Begu + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 8-11, - 9 Units (38 Units Staked, - 23.68% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 25th)

The Thursday action returned a solid day for the Tennis Picks and gives me something to build on here in Miami.

We are only into the Second Round though so there is plenty of tennis to get through before seeing how the tournament will work out, but it is an encouraging day after a difficult first couple of days.

Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: 2021 was a very difficult season for all on the Tour, but the pandemic had a particular impact on those players from Australia and New Zealand who knew leaving the country would mean a tough time returning home. Many decided that it would be better for their own mental health and well-being to avoid travelling to tournaments as they usually would and one of those was Nick Kyrgios.

I think that has contributed to the decision made by Ashleigh Barty to retire at 25 years old and Nick Kyrgios has also spoken about not always having the love for tennis to put in the work that he needs to in order to win the biggest events. He looks much happier overall at the moment and 2022 has given Kyrgios a chance to travel alongside his girlfriend, which seems to have grounded the charismatic Australian and also helped him produce some very solid tennis.

The serve has always made Nick Kyrgios a tough person to play on the hard courts, but the opening three months of the season have been impressive thanks to his returning performances. He has broken in 21% of return games played, although a seven match sample is not the biggest, while Kyrgios reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells last week.

The two losses suffered by Nick Kyrgios have come against Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal this season, but Andrey Rublev is the Second Round opponent for him in Miami and this is a player who will feel he is right up alongside the top players on the Tour. Take away the surprising Third Round loss at the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev has been the epitome of consistency with two titles alongside two other runs to Semi Finals, including at Indian Wells.

Consistency has been the key for Andrey Rublev since the start of the 2020 season and it feels very dangerous to oppose him, but Nick Kyrgios will feel he is serving well enough to stay with the Russian.

Andrey Rublev has struggled to deal with the Nick Kyrgios serve in their two previous matches, although the last of those was in 2019. Those were days when Rublev was Ranked below Nick Kyrgios and that has changed now, but I do think the latter is playing well enough and with enough focus to keep this one close.

Tie-breakers will likely be needed, and the way Nick Kyrgios challenged both Medvedev and Nadal in defeats this season suggests he can do the same against Andrey Rublev. Much will depend how well Nick Kyrgios is able to serve in this one, but if he can, I think he is able to make the games given to him count.

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: An illness meant Jannik Sinner was unable to take to the court for his Fourth Round match at Indian Wells and the biggest question to answer is whether there has been enough time for him to make a full recovery. The Italian has been in fine form in 2022 and will feel the illness has come at a bad time, but big tournaments are still to come and Jannik Sinner can certainly make amends for not being able to finish as he would have liked in Indian Wells.

He received a Bye through to the Second Round and that means there has been more than a week between when Sinner last took to the court and this match in Miami. Travelling doesn't help, but Jannik Sinner has entered both the Singles and Doubles event here and that suggests he will feel he can compete at a good level.

Emil Ruusuvuori is the first player that Sinner will be facing in Miami after the young player Maxime Cressy impressively in the First Round. The Finnish player is once again approaching a career high World Ranking mark and has reached the Semi Final and a Final in hard court events this season, although Emil Ruusuvuori has benefited from the weak draws in the events in Melbourne and Pune.

Relatively early losses in Indian Wells and in a Phoenix Challenger will have dented some of the confidence, while Emil Ruusuvuori has found it tough to compete with top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This season he is 1-4 in those matches on this surface, while the numbers show the serve is vulnerable when facing some of the better players on the Tour.

That is going to be a problem for Emil Ruusuvuori when he takes on Jannik Sinner who has broken in 26% of return games played on the hard courts in 2022 and that is a number that stays steady when you take a look at the bigger sample of his performances over the last twelve months. The fact that Sinner is used to playing at a higher level than Ruusuvuori should only give him a further edge and the only doubt is the illness that he was dealing with in Indian Wells.

Jannik Sinner played Emil Ruusuvuori twice last season and one of those matches came here in Miami with the other at a hard court event in Washington. The Italian crushed Ruusuvuori in both matches and was able to hold serve in 94% of games played, while Jannik Sinner broke in 42% of return games played too.

It is a match up that Jannik Sinner has enjoyed and I do think he is the much stronger player this stage of their respective careers. As long as Sinner feels ready to take to the court, I do think he will be able to win and win well in the Second Round encounter.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-4, + 1.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.80% Yield)