Miami Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 25th March)

Day 8 came down to Frances Tiafoe and he looked in a decent position when taking the first set 6-4 and quickly moving into a 0-40 position to take complete command of the Fourth Round match.

However, Tiafoe served a reminder as to why he is rarely selected as he not only failed to convert those Break opportunities, but wilted in the second set.

As stated, Frances Tiafoe is a battler though and he wins plenty of matches- he just doesn't tend to cover as a favourite and that was proved again as he dropped the second set 6-1, but won two 6-4 sets around it.

The last few days have been a little disappointing for the Tennis Picks and that has dented the totals that had been produced through the opening six days of the tournament.

Wednesday feels important to try and bounce back and there are two selections from the four Quarter Final matches that are scheduled to be played.

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: If it wasn't for the WTA decision to remove Ranking Points from the 2022 Wimbledon event that was won by Elena Rybakina, the latter may have actually earned a top two World Ranking before last week.

It has felt like she has been playing as the second best player in the world for some time and winning the Australian Open title backed that up.

Elena Rybakina was not quite able to add the Indian Wells title to her collection, but the run to the Final was enough to move past Iga Swiatek and the Kazakhstan player may already be thinking about closing on the World Number 1 spot. Taking that away from Aryna Sabalenka is not going to be easy, but Elena Rybakina has little to defend at the next two very important WTA 1000 events on the clay and her run to the Quarter Final here in Miami has improved on the Second Round loss last year.

Thinking too far ahead would be a mistake, but this could be a special year for Elena Rybakina if she can stay healthy and she will certainly be amongst the favourites at Wimbledon and the US Open.

The current top two players in the world are setting the standard and Jessica Pegula is desperately trying to bridge the gap.

She may be the World Number 5 and put together some very strong results to open 2026, but Jessica Pegula has already suffered two important defeats to Elena Rybakina in Melbourne and Indian Wells.

A title was won in Dubai, but Jessica Pegula is desperate to win a Major and that would mean having to beat the likes of Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka from her current World Ranking mark.

There is little wrong with the quality of tennis that Jessica Pegula is playing- she serves much more effectively than some may think and Pegula backs that up with solid returning, but this match up will test her mentally.

Two defeats suffered to Elena Rybakina this season can be added to the two hard court losses against this opponent after the US Open last year.

Three years ago she was beaten by Elena Rybakina in Miami and it is hard to ignore that the higher Ranked player has been the superior one in those head to heads with Jessica Pegula.

The American has not been overwhelmed, but Elena Rybakina has played the bigger points best and she has covered this handicap line in all of those wins.

Jessica Pegula is unlikely to roll over, but it is Rybakina who has the edge on the serve and that can be the difference maker in this Quarter Final.

Tommy Paul v Arthur Fils: This is going to be a close, competitive Quarter Final and the winner is going to be the favourite to progress to the Miami Final on Sunday.

They will have a Semi Final to play, but Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils look like they are clearly the best players left in the top half of the draw as we reach the last eight of this Masters event.

No one can argue about the level being produced by Arthur Fils right now, but Tommy Paul looks an interesting underdog to back, despite not having those big time results this year.

He has played well when going up against some of the stronger players on the Tour, but the Arthur Fils numbers have dipped when taking in his hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents.

That is not to say Fils cannot win this match, because he clearly can, but Tommy Paul is a very solid hard court player and the home crowd could push him over the line in the last match scheduled to be played on Day 9 at the tournament.

It is Tommy Paul who has won the sole previous meeting, but that was long enough go to be largely irrelevant.

What does remain important is that Paul has been serving well enough and may have the edge on the return, which ultimately could prove to be the difference between them in a match that may go all the way.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Tommy Paul @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 16-12, + 3.30 Units (27 Units Staked, + 12.22% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 25th March)

It can only be described as 'frustrating' when players miss Break Points, Set Points or Match Points at a moment when they would cover and win for the Tennis Picks, but that has been the case over the last couple of days.

On another day and with an inch here or there, the last two days could have easily produced a 4-1 record rather than a 2-3 one.

Monday saw Aryna Sabalenka dominate Danielle Collins, but she missed the Set Point to win the first set 6-3 and then had two Match Points at 15-40, 6-4, 5-3, and converting either of those would have led to a cover too.

The day prior saw Gael Monfils miss four Break Points n a single game that prevented his ability to cover as well and so there has to be some irritation to those results.

In saying that, the Miami totals are still in a positive position and there are six days remaining in South Florida as the first quarter of the season is wrapped up.

The entire ATP Fourth Round is scheduled to be played on Tuesday with two of the WTA Quarter Finals also set to go and that means it is the busiest day left at the event. Three selections have been found, which can be read below, and it would be nice to be on the right side of the tight margins to just move the tournament back in a positive direction.

Gael Monfils v Sebastian Korda: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils for the opening to the 2025 season and his attention will soon turn to having one more big run at the French Open.

Before thoughts turn to clay court preparation, Monfils is looking to move through to the Miami Quarter Final having battled through three sets in each of the three wins recorded at the tournament. Another victory would see him moving back towards the top 32 and that would potentially mean being Seeded at Roland Garros, which would offer Gael Monfils that much of a better opportunity to have the kind of impact that the fans will be hoping to see.

He will have to beat a confident Sebastian Korda, who has won two matches in Miami in solid fashion.

The victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas will have shown Korda that he is capable of getting through sticky moments within matches and not lose the momentum to go on and win those matches. This wll help the American as he looks for a bit of revenge over Gael Monfils having lost to the veteran at Indian Wells earlier this month.

However, the feeling is that the day of rest between matches will help Gael Monfils recover from the tough Third Round win over Jaume Munar and he can frank that victory over Sebastian Korda with another on a faster surface.

He was the much more effective server in Indian Wells and Gael Monfils may feel that is going to be the case again in the Fourth Round in Miami.

Sebastan Korda has been returning well through his first two wins in Miami, but Gael Monfils still holds the edge on the serve and that may be the key to the outcome of this match.

You can never tell how accumulated fatigue will play a part, but Monfils is still looking pretty sharp and the day of rest should help as he looks to upset the odds in this Fourth Round match.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Two wins in Miami will have given Novak Djokovic a boost in confidence having struggled after Melbourne, although the former World Number 1 will be well aware that the level of opponent is going up considerably compared with those already beaten.

Neither opponent faced so far at the tournament have been Ranked higher than World Number 65, but in the Fourth Round Novak Djokovic is faced by Lorenzo Musetti, the current World Number 16.

The Italian's Ranking is boosted by a surprising run at Wimbledon last year on the grass courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is most respected on the clay courts like many of his compatriots. He has proven to be a solid, but unspectacular hard court player, and Lorenzo Musetti had a 4-3 record on the surface in 2025 before winning two matches here.

Both wins have been in three set affairs, which can provide a confidence boost for the Italian, although there is room for improvement and there is likely going to have to be an improvement if he is going to win this Fourth Round match against Novak Djokovic.

Overall the numbers have looked stronger than last year with Lorenzo Musetti serving and returning a little better on the surface than he did in 2024. That will be tested over the course of the year, but it may give Musetti the belief that he can get the better of Novak Djokovic for the second time in their career meetings.

Ultimately it is Djokovic who has won seven of the eight matches played and the most competitive meetings have been on the clay courts. The two previous hard court matches have ended pretty decisively in favour of Novak Djokovic and the Serb looks to be serving well enough to give himself the chances to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.

In their previous matches, Lorenzo Musetti has struggled to protect his serve against the strong returning that Novak Djokovic brings to the court.

On the clay, Musetti has been able to challenge the Novak Djokovic serve, but that has been much tougher for him on the hard courts and that is something that may hold firm in this big Fourth Round match.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The final scoreline might have suggested two tough sets, but Aryna Sabalenka was a dominant winner over Danielle Collins and will be looking to continue her dominance of Qinwen Zheng in this Miami Quarter Final.

These players have met five times beginning with the 2023 US Open Quarter Final and all of those have been won by Aryna Sabalenka on the hard courts.

She has dropped just a single set in that time and it is impossible to ignore the numbers.

Aryna Sabalenka has dominated behind serve when playing Qinwen Zheng, but she has also found a way to get into the return games thanks to winning 44% of points played on the Zheng serve.

The one 'positive' for Qinwen Zheng is that she produced her best serving day against Aryna Sabalenka when the two met in Riyadh at the WTA Finals at the end of 2024, although the conditions perhaps helped with the World Number 1 still coming out as a solid 6-3, 6-4 winner.

Qinwen Zheng had lost three hard court matches in a row before arriving at Indian Wells where she reached the Quarter Final and was ultimately beaten by Iga Swiatek. She has backed that up with three wins in Miami, but the highest Ranked player that has been seen off is at World Number 40 and over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has yet to beat a player Ranked in the top three on a hard court.

A couple of sets have been won in that time, but the feeling is that this match is on the racquet of the World Number 1 who is desperate to win a title before moving into the clay court season.

The form shown in the three wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka makes her a strong favourite and she can find the breaks needed to cover a wide number in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 9-6, + 1.59 Units (15 Units Staked, + 10.60% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 25th)

I was pretty firm in my post for the Friday Tennis Picks that I would be expecting a much better day than the really poor showing on Thursday and sticking to the process which has helped the 2023 season get off to a strong start worked out for the best.

Twelve selections, eight winners is pretty good and I did earn a bit of fortune with a player securing a cover with a break at the end of her match, although that was also after missing two Match Points which reminded me of what had happened the day before.

As the tournament progresses, we have Third Round WTA action and Second Round ATP action on Saturday and you can see my Picks below.

From Monday I should be able to write down a few thoughts on a couple of the Picks being made to fatten up the posts, but the early starts in Miami without the usual five hour gap between the East Coast and London has made that more difficult over the last week. At least in Indian Wells we still had a seven hour time difference to offer up more time to write out some of the reasonings behind the selections being made, but that should change soon.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 14-15, - 5.86 Units (60 Units Staked, - 9.77% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant (March 25th)

After the back and forth, both on social media and behind the scenes, it is almost certain that the Undisputed Heavyweight Fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk is officially OFF.

We may be Boxing fans, but the sport really does not help itself at times and what felt like a pretty simple discussion to be had is once again going to see the fans miss out.

Ever since Usyk won the rematch against Anthony Joshua, the fight with Tyson Fury looked very easy to make- they have virtually been discussing terms since back in August and things only took a turn for the worse when it became clear that the big site fee was not going to be coming from the Middle East.

Even then we have seen compromises made, but this looks like a fight to set alongside Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford as one that should have happened, but will not.

Oleksandr Usyk will now go and fulfil some mandatories and the biggest fight that he could potentially make going forward looks to be either against former WBC Champion Deontay Wilder or Joe Joyce, the Interim WBO Champion. A third fight with Anthony Joshua would only make sense if the British fighter returns with three or four big wins beginning with his return on April 1st, but that third fight would be at least eighteen months away and there is no telling what direction Matchroom will take when it comes to Joshua.

As for Tyson Fury, the fight with Anthony Joshua makes a lot of sense and a voluntary defence against Joe Joyce should do decent numbers, but I am not sure the latter fight will produce the kind of monetary return that Fury may want.

And so it is perhaps unsurprising that Frank Warren hinted that Fury could potentially retire again, this time by officially relinquishing the WBC World Title.

I really don't know what will happen, but we could get some clarity over the next month.

In that time both Anthony Joshua and Joe Joyce will have completed their next fights scheduled and the mandatory calls for Oleksandr Usyk could be answered.

It looks like Daniel Dubois will be next for Usyk, although there is every chance that his three World Titles are fractured by the end of the year. Any hopes of a four belt Heavyweight Champion will also have been fractured for now, although there is a pathway that could hopefully open up an Undisputed Champion fight in around eighteen to twenty-four months from now.

Here's hoping negotiations will be more fruitful when/if that time comes around as the Division continues to wait for a first Undisputed Champion since Lennox Lewis.

Fights that are not going to happen, or not happen any time soon, are not really my concern as disappointed as I may be.

There may not be any World Titles on the line in Las Vegas on Saturday, but make no mistake that this is a massive Super Middleweight showdown and a genuinely good fight taking place.

Other cards will feature a World Title being defended at Cruiserweight and there is also a return bout for a former World Champion looking to climb back up the mountain.

After a disappointing opening two months for the Boxing Picks, a strong showing a couple of weeks ago have just turned things back around. I still want to improve the 'strike rate', but moving back into a positive number for the year is something to be happy with as I look to back up the strong returns of 2022.

David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant

All of the Super Middleweight full World Titles are held by Canelo Alvarez, but this genuinely feels like a fight that features the next two in terms of the top 168 pounders in the world.

David Benavidez is hoping to secure a shot at the Undisputed Champion with a win over Caleb Plant, a former World Champion who was beaten by Canelo and looking to move into a position to have a rematch.

The winning fighter is likely going to have to wait for any crack at Alvarez, who is likely going into a rematch with Dmitry Bivol if he can beat his mandatory challenger John Ryder in early May. Some may feel that Canelo Alvarez could soon choose to drop some of his World Titles held and that is where the winner of this one could become a full World Champion and try and force Canelo Alvarez into the ring.

Neither can afford to think too far ahead in this one and there looks to be a real life needle between Benavidez and Plant, which only increases the anticipation around this huge fight.

David Benavidez has held the full World Title before, but he has twice lost his belt outside of the ring, which is a real disappointment. However, he remains unbeaten and has worn down twenty-three opponents from the 26-0 record held.

Caleb Plant has linked up with Stephen Edwards as his new trainer following the loss to Canelo and he did produce a memorable KO of Anthony Dirrell in his sole fight in 2022. A former World Champion, Plant will feel he has all of the skills to work through the pressure that Benavidez is going to bring for much of the night, while he has more power than his thirteen Stoppages from twenty-two wins suggests.

Knocking out David Benavidez is going to be some challenge and keeping this pressure fighter away will be tough. Linking up with Edwards as the trainer does mean Caleb Plant should know what to expect as Stephen Edwards trained Kyrone Davis who had a decent showing against the unbeaten Benavidez, even in a losing effort.

This time Stephen Edwards has a fighter who would have had a full camp preparing for David Benavidez, and one who matches up size wise rather than Davis who was coming up in weight. An intelligent trainer, Edwards will be looking for Caleb Plant to set up traps for Benavidez, but much is going to depend on how much punishment Plant is willing to take.

He will have to take some, even if the quick feet and defensive movement should help Plant.

I like Caleb Plant and I think he may be the superior pure Boxer of the two.

However, I do think David Benavidez is the fighter with momentum and he has shown that he can grind down and break down opponents. I know he is talking up his chances of breaking Caleb Plant relatively early, but this will take time and Plant is effective enough to make Benavidez have to reset early before perhaps slowing down in the second half of this one and allowing his unbeaten rival to take control.

David Benavidez is going to make Caleb Plant work hard all night and that will likely see him just slow for long enough to be cornered and stopped.

Canelo Alvarez hits hard and managed to do that against Plant in their Undisputed Super Middleweight clash, and I just feel that David Benavidez may pack a bit more. That is something I think will be telling in the second half of the contest and the younger, unbeaten Interim Champion can force the stoppage of Sweet Hands.

The United Kingdom Light Heavyweight Division looks to be thriving, even if we have yet to see one of those fighters break through and win a World Title. That is perhaps not a massive surprise with Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev at the top of the mountain, but there are still some huge fights between the likes of Anthony Yarde, Joshua Buatsi, Callum Smith and Dan Azeez that can be put together over the next twelve months.

I think we will see some of those and you can perhaps add Lyndon Arthur to the mix who will be fighting on Friday night in an IBO World Title bout (this is an important fight for momentum, but the actual belt on the line is not going to be one that the other Champions will be hoping to hold).

Since his Fourth Round loss to Anthony Yarde in the big rematch following an upset win, Lyndon Arthur has been rebuilding with a couple of stoppage wins. He will be looking for a third of those when facing Braian Nahuel Suarez, an Argentinian with a solid looking 18-1 record, but one who has never fought outside his own country.

Lyndon Arthur is unlikely to need to find his opponent and I do think Suarez has been brought over to make the Manchester man look good as he continues his rebuild.

In his sole loss, Braian Nahuel Suarez was blitzed inside the First Round- this one may go a little longer, but Lyndon Arthur can secure the victory inside the first half of the fight before calling out Dan Azeez for a big domestic showdown.

[UPDATE]  After his original opponent had to be withdrawn, Lyndon Arthur will now take on Boris Crighton in a non-title main event on Friday evening.

Facing a new opponent is far from ideal for Arthur, but I still think he will have too much for Boris Crighton. The latter may have been training, but he is going up two or three levels compared to his usual and I think this will quickly feel like a survival job for the step in.

Lyndon Arthur has to show that he is ready to compete with some of the top domestic Light Heavyweights around and he can get this done inside the first Five Rounds of a scheduled Ten.

On Saturday evening we have a couple of cards taking place in the United Kingdom, while there is also a decent card taking place in the United States away from the big card headlined by Caleb Plant and David Benavidez.

I think Michael Gomez Jr is worth a small interest to edge Levi Giles on the cards in their Ten Round bout for the vacant English Title. This is a big opportunity for both fighters who have a single loss between them, but I think the taller home fighter may do enough to earn the edge, although there is a chance there will be some controversy attached.

Frazer Clarke should win his Heavyweight fight pretty early on the undercard and he could soon be joined in the Division by headliner Lawrence Okolie who will be making a long awaited return to the ring.

A much publicised falling out with Eddie Hearn has been making the headlines, and that will also have put some pressure on The Sauce to respond with a big performance in the ring. He is still an unbeaten Cruiserweight World Champion and there is some unfinished business in the Division before moving up to Heavyweight, but Lawrence Okolie will have to shake off some of the ring rust that will come with a thirteen month lay off.

David Light has to be respected as the unbeaten mandatory contender, but I am not sure the New Zealander has fought anyone of this level and Lawrence Okolie will likely have early success.

The Champion has sometimes been criticised for not entertaining the fans, but I think Light will be there to fight and that should help Lawrence Okolie who can score a good, solid first half Stoppage before calling out domestic rivals and other World Champions for Unifications.

Both of the above fights are on the Manchester card, but Andrew Cain will be back in action in Telford on a Queensbury promotion.

The unbeaten fighter takes on Ionut Baluta who is another step up for Cain in his development in the professional ranks.

Ionut Baluta is going to be confident and he is used to fighting in the United Kingdom and I do think he challenges Andrew Cain. He has not been Stopped before despite being in with the likes of Michael Conlan, Brad Foster and Liam Davies and I think Baluta can show enough toughness to get to the cards, although I would expect Andrew Cain to come away with his hand raised.

We will learn plenty about Cain who has yet to go beyond the Sixth Round as a pro, but I think he will pass this test even if he has to take the Decision on the cards.

Jose Carlos Ramirez came awfully close to winning the Undisputed Light Welterweight Title in a loss to Josh Taylor and this is only the second fight he has had in the two years since that loss to the British fighter.

He remains amongst the best fighters in the Division, but Ramirez needs to be more active as he returns as a big favourite against Richard Commey.

The latter was a surprise World Champion at Lightweight, but he was blitzed by Teofimo Lopez and Richard Commey has now won one of his last four fights. He took a pretty bad beating from Vasyl Lomachenko, who urged Commey's corner to pull their fighter before seemingly taking his foot off the gas and I do think the veteran has seen his best days.

Of course you have to expect Jose Carlos Ramirez to have to shake off some ring rust, but he is the naturally bigger man and I don't think he will be as likely to come off the boil if he does have Richard Commey hurt.

As he has moved into the elite level of World Boxing, the Stoppages have unsurprisingly slowed down, but Jose Carlos Ramirez can break down Richard Commey in this one and secure a solid looking victory in the second half of this one.

MY PICKS: David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 Coral (2 Units)

Lyndon Arthur to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Michael Gomez Jr to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrew Cain to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.33 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jose Carlos Ramirez to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 7-10, + 0.76 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.38% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 25th)

The Thursday action returned a solid day for the Tennis Picks and gives me something to build on here in Miami.

We are only into the Second Round though so there is plenty of tennis to get through before seeing how the tournament will work out, but it is an encouraging day after a difficult first couple of days.

Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: 2021 was a very difficult season for all on the Tour, but the pandemic had a particular impact on those players from Australia and New Zealand who knew leaving the country would mean a tough time returning home. Many decided that it would be better for their own mental health and well-being to avoid travelling to tournaments as they usually would and one of those was Nick Kyrgios.

I think that has contributed to the decision made by Ashleigh Barty to retire at 25 years old and Nick Kyrgios has also spoken about not always having the love for tennis to put in the work that he needs to in order to win the biggest events. He looks much happier overall at the moment and 2022 has given Kyrgios a chance to travel alongside his girlfriend, which seems to have grounded the charismatic Australian and also helped him produce some very solid tennis.

The serve has always made Nick Kyrgios a tough person to play on the hard courts, but the opening three months of the season have been impressive thanks to his returning performances. He has broken in 21% of return games played, although a seven match sample is not the biggest, while Kyrgios reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells last week.

The two losses suffered by Nick Kyrgios have come against Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal this season, but Andrey Rublev is the Second Round opponent for him in Miami and this is a player who will feel he is right up alongside the top players on the Tour. Take away the surprising Third Round loss at the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev has been the epitome of consistency with two titles alongside two other runs to Semi Finals, including at Indian Wells.

Consistency has been the key for Andrey Rublev since the start of the 2020 season and it feels very dangerous to oppose him, but Nick Kyrgios will feel he is serving well enough to stay with the Russian.

Andrey Rublev has struggled to deal with the Nick Kyrgios serve in their two previous matches, although the last of those was in 2019. Those were days when Rublev was Ranked below Nick Kyrgios and that has changed now, but I do think the latter is playing well enough and with enough focus to keep this one close.

Tie-breakers will likely be needed, and the way Nick Kyrgios challenged both Medvedev and Nadal in defeats this season suggests he can do the same against Andrey Rublev. Much will depend how well Nick Kyrgios is able to serve in this one, but if he can, I think he is able to make the games given to him count.

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: An illness meant Jannik Sinner was unable to take to the court for his Fourth Round match at Indian Wells and the biggest question to answer is whether there has been enough time for him to make a full recovery. The Italian has been in fine form in 2022 and will feel the illness has come at a bad time, but big tournaments are still to come and Jannik Sinner can certainly make amends for not being able to finish as he would have liked in Indian Wells.

He received a Bye through to the Second Round and that means there has been more than a week between when Sinner last took to the court and this match in Miami. Travelling doesn't help, but Jannik Sinner has entered both the Singles and Doubles event here and that suggests he will feel he can compete at a good level.

Emil Ruusuvuori is the first player that Sinner will be facing in Miami after the young player Maxime Cressy impressively in the First Round. The Finnish player is once again approaching a career high World Ranking mark and has reached the Semi Final and a Final in hard court events this season, although Emil Ruusuvuori has benefited from the weak draws in the events in Melbourne and Pune.

Relatively early losses in Indian Wells and in a Phoenix Challenger will have dented some of the confidence, while Emil Ruusuvuori has found it tough to compete with top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This season he is 1-4 in those matches on this surface, while the numbers show the serve is vulnerable when facing some of the better players on the Tour.

That is going to be a problem for Emil Ruusuvuori when he takes on Jannik Sinner who has broken in 26% of return games played on the hard courts in 2022 and that is a number that stays steady when you take a look at the bigger sample of his performances over the last twelve months. The fact that Sinner is used to playing at a higher level than Ruusuvuori should only give him a further edge and the only doubt is the illness that he was dealing with in Indian Wells.

Jannik Sinner played Emil Ruusuvuori twice last season and one of those matches came here in Miami with the other at a hard court event in Washington. The Italian crushed Ruusuvuori in both matches and was able to hold serve in 94% of games played, while Jannik Sinner broke in 42% of return games played too.

It is a match up that Jannik Sinner has enjoyed and I do think he is the much stronger player this stage of their respective careers. As long as Sinner feels ready to take to the court, I do think he will be able to win and win well in the Second Round encounter.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-4, + 1.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.80% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 3 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 25th)

The Miami Masters continues on Thursday and the way the draws and Qualifiers have been scheduled means the majority of the Second Round matches set to be played have not had full markets put together at the time of writing.

I do have a couple of Tennis Picks that I have found from the matches set to be played, but I may add some more when the full markets are available with some matches of interest as long as the handicaps hit my marks.

I will also update the weekly totals at the Miami Masters on Thursday when completing this thread. Any remaining Tennis Picks will be added to the 'My Picks' section at the bottom of the post.

[THURSDAY UPDATE] Another positive day has got the Miami Masters up and running for the Tennis Picks and I have updated the tally from the first two days below.

I have also added a few selections to the 'My Picks' section below now the full Second Round matches in the WTA tournament have been put together. On Friday the Second Round of the ATP tournament will begin and the remainder of the WTA matches will be completed and I will have a post up for any Picks from Day 4 in the next post which should go live later today.

Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro over 22.5 games: We haven't seen much of Kevin Anderson since he was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and that lack of tennis could hurt him as he enters the Miami Masters in the First Round. Injuries have really put up a couple of blockades on Anderson's career over the last couple of years, although the big South African still has a huge serve that at least gives him a chance in matches.

Like Anderson, Thiago Monteiro has not played a hard court match since the Australian Open, but the Brazilian has made use of the Golden Swing clay tournaments that are played in South America between the first Grand Slam of the season and the first Masters 1000 events. The early form on the hard courts was encouraging for Monteiro though and it took a big effort from Andrey Rublev to get past him at the Australian Open, while he has a run to the Semi Final under his belt this season.

In 2020 Thiago Monteiro might have finished with a 7-9 record on the hard courts, a win number he is close to matching in 2021 already, but it was largely down to the struggles on the return of serve. He actually held 88% of service games played on hard courts in 2020 and he won 70% of points played and Monteiro is backing that up early in 2021 with a 90% mark and 69% mark in those categories respectively.

Conditions in Miami can be slower, but those service numbers will be encouraging for Thiago Monteiro. The numbers have also been important for a player who broke in 14% of return games played on the hard courts last season and has only managed to improve that to 17% in 2021, and Thiago Monteiro will be tested by the Kevin Anderson serve which remains a big weapon for the former top 5 Ranked player.

Kevin Anderson is 2-2 in his limited hard court matches played in 2021, but he has won 72% of service points played which has led to a 93% hold mark going into the Miami Masters. The South African has always been a largely limited return player though and he has broken in just 10% of return games played on the hard courts in the four matches played this season, while the best mark Anderson has produced in recent years over the course of a season is an 18% break percentage in hard court matches.

Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was clearly a serve-orientated match until Thiago Monteiro found himself struggling and had to retire in the second set.

Despite the slower conditions, I think this is a match that is likely going to be controlled by the serve of the two players as they face limited returners. That should see at least one tie-breaker needed and I would not be that surprised if all sets competed go very deep.

With that in mind I think Kevin Anderson and Thiago Monteiro will combine to cover this total games like in what looks a tight match that will be decided by the inches with tie-breakers possibly the only way to split them.

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: It wasn't exactly in the manner I would have expected, but Barbora Krejcikova was able to earn her place in the Second Round in Miami a couple of days ago. She just about held herself together to beat Anna Blinkova, but the Czech player will know she has to be a lot better if she is going to get the better of an ever improving Iga Swiatek.

Confidence will have been built from the run in Dubai when Barbora Krejcikova was beaten in the Final by Garbine Muguruza, but she did only beat one player inside the top 40 of the World Rankings at that tournament. That has been the test for Krejcikova on the Singles court as she has struggled to compete with the very best players on the Tour, but she has shown enough improvement to be respected.

There has been a definite increase in her level of performance in 2020 and 2021, but Iga Swiatek is a Grand Slam Champion and has looked to have taken that on board in a much stronger way than many first time winners in recent years.

She was a little disappointed with her performance in the Fourth Round loss to Simona Halep at the Australian Open, but Iga Swiatek has shown her mental strength to follow up by winning a WTA Title in Adelaide. Like Krejcikova, Swiatek was beaten by Garbine Muguruza in Dubai and she was not as competitive as the former in that match, but I do like the way the Pole has been performing on the hard courts.

The serve has been a big weapon for Iga Swiatek on this surface to open 2021, and it is the manner in which she has been able to look after the second serve which has impressed the most.

Iga Swiatek has a considerable advantage on the return of serve in this match and I do think that is going to be the key to the outcome. As well as Barbora Krejcikova has played, she has only won 39% of return points when playing against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season and Swiatek has been serving well enough to keep her at bay in this one before imposing her own return game on the match.

You don't really want to underestimate the Barbora Krejcikova first serve, but I expect Iga Swiatek to really attack the second serve. The feeling is that Swiatek will have a real edge when the rallies develop with the level she has shown on this surface and I think it is enough for the Pole to come through and cover the mark.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 5-2, + 4.18 Units (14 Units Staked, + 29.86% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 25th)

So I haven't made any Tennis Picks since the end of Indian Wells and that is very much down to being away from the United Kingdom and just taking a bit of time to reset.

I can't really complain about the performance of the Tennis Picks as another winning week was put on the board and it honestly felt like being my first winning tournament from Indian Wells in forever

The decision to get away between Indian Wells and the second week in Miami beginning was made a long time ago and very much down to one simple factor- the international break in Football which meant not missing any Manchester United games.

I've a patient partner to say the least.


This week is going to be a busy one for the blog- there should be Tennis Picks daily from the remainder of the Miami tournament and I am going to update season totals before the clay season begins in Charleston next week and kicks into overdrive heading towards the French Open at the end of May.

I will also be posting the next Fantasy Football post and thoughts from the weekend Premier League action on Friday as we hit the first Double GameWeek of the season. Plenty of points are up for grabs so mini-Leagues are not lost for those playing and I've been on a pretty good roll when it comes to selecting key players.

And finally the week is going to be rounded off with the next set of Boxing selections.


First things first is the Tennis from Miami and the continuing rise of Bianca Andreescu is creating headlines for the WTA as she backs up her title win in Indian Wells with a strong run here. It is a loaded field entering the Fourth Round which is completed on Monday, while the ATP Masters Fourth Round line up is completed on the same day.

The shift to the clay courts will then be welcomed by some of the players on the Tour and others less so, but it is one of my favourite times of the season and I am hoping to have a strong part of the year to really set 2019 up to becoming a top one for the selections.


Below you can read the analysis of a couple of the matches being played on Monday and full selections can then be seen in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: I am going against one of my more recent rules on Monday in the ATP Masters Third Round and that is backing Roger Federer to cover more than a four game handicap in a best of three set match on a hard court.

The spot has to be very much the reason for it and I do think it is a good place for Federer to continue the roll from Indian Wells and especially after coming through a tough Second Round match. The former World Number 1 needed three sets to get past a much improved Radu Albot and it is clear that Federer is not the force of old, especially when it comes to the return of serve.

That makes this kind of spread a difficult one for him to cover in my opinion, although Federer is playing an opponent who had difficulty holding serve against him in their two meetings on a hard court in 2018. The second match was much tougher for Federer, but the latter has been serving at a very high level throughout 2019 and it is the ability to break the Filip Krajinovic serve that should give him a chance to win and cover.

It won't be too long before Krajinovic is back approaching his peak World Ranking of Number 28 which was achieved eleven months ago, but injuries have knocked him out of the top 100. That hasn't stopped him producing some strong results and the run to the Indian Wells Fourth Round coupled with winning two matches in Miami will have built the confidence.

There is no doubting what a dangerous player Krajinovic can be and his numbers are strong on the hard courts for 2019 and very similar to the level he was producing in 2017 before an injury hit 2018. However this is a step up to a level he has not been used to playing and last week we saw Krajinovic struggle to get into the Rafael Nadal service games in Indian Wells.

Now he has to face an opponent holding almost 95% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and that is going to make it very difficult for the Serbian to get his teeth into this match. I do think he has the talent to test Federer, but this could be a comfortable match up for the latter in terms of the type of tennis he is facing from the other side of the net.

Over the last two weeks Federer has shown a little more out of his return game too and I think that can see him cover this number at odds against. I would not back him at odds on with these kinds of spreads because so much is determined by the coin toss at the start of the match, but Federer should have the majority of break point chances and the superior serving should give him a chance to put pressure on Krajinovic and find the breaks of serve needed to cover.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Two of the bright young talents of the ATP Tour meet in the Miami Masters Third Round on Monday and it has the makings of being a really good watch.

The higher Ranked player going into this match is Denis Shapovalov who is getting close to reaching a new career high World Ranking and eyeing up a spot in the top 20. His game is a dynamic one, although there is no doubt the teenager is still looking for the consistency to challenge the very best out there.

He faces Andrey Rublev who had been close to dropping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to a series of injuries that had seen his form drop away from levels he had displayed on the Tour. Coming through two Qualifiers is always a confidence booster and Rublev has also upset Marin Cilic on his way through the Miami draw, while the hard court numbers have improved with a run to the Indian Wells Final in a Challenger event at the same site as the Masters event is played.

Rublev is the superior returner in this match, but there have been definite signs that Shapovalov is improving that side of his game all the time. A better conversion rate of the break points will help the young Canadian, but he should also have a real edge when it comes to the serve and I feel that is going to make the difference on the day in what looks a close match to call.

In the last month Shapovalov has been creating more break points than he has been allowing and Rublev's 73% hold percentage on the hard courts at the main ATP level is not really going to be good enough. He might have more success playing a returner like Shapovalov, but the improvement mentioned means Rublev will have to deal with the pressurised moments if he is going to earn the upset.

Confidence that has been built up by Rublev can't be ignored and he did win their previous head to head. That caame in the ATP Next Gen Finals at the end of 2017, but the rules are different and even on that day Shapovalov had a host of break point chances that slipped through his fingers.

As long as he can be a little more clinical when the chances come his way, I think Shapovalov can win and cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2017- Jorge Linares vs Anthony Crolla II (March 25th)

There have been so many good fights already in 2017 and March has been something of a month of upsets beginning with Tony Bellew's win over David Haye.

Last weekend saw Roman Gonzalez lose his unbeaten record, while Gennady Golovkin was a narrow winner over Daniel Jacobs in a fight where GGG was made to look the most human he has in years.

I actually had Jacobs winning the fight, but it wasn't a robbery of a decision because so many of the Rounds were very, very closely contested and it comes down to whether you liked Jacobs' slickness or Golovkin's come forward attitude.


This week the main card that is drawing the attention of the fans will come from the Manchester Arena as Anthony Crolla tries to earn a measure of revenge over Jorge Linares having lost the first fight on a Unanimous Decision back in September. There is a half decent undercard put together too in a week where yet another big fight in England was announced as Kell Brook gets ready to defend his World title against Errol Spence Jr at Bramall Lane in May.

We should hear an announcement from Amir Khan in the next couple of weeks for his next fight and the British boxing scene continues to thrive.

It was also good to hear Dereck Chisora is going to get his chance to earn revenge over Robert Helenius when he travels to Helsinki to take on the home fighter. It has been a few years since Helenius received a very fortunate decision against Chisora, but the latter will head over to get the better of him and line up a World Title shot against Deontay Wilder.

Brian Rose vs Jack Arnfield

There is local rivalry on the line as both Brian Rose and Jack Arnfield are looking to become known as the Number 1 Middleweight fighting out of Blackpool.

Things have become tense between Rose and Arnfield to the point that they had to be separated after the weigh in and during the traditional face off. It had been respectful for a while, but it is clear that Rose feels he is way above Arnfield while Bobby Rimmer has used his familiarity with Arnfield to accuse his former charge of being jealous of Rose.

You can't ignore the resumes of the two boxers as Rose has been in with the bigger names and been involved in the bigger fights. The Majority Decision loss to Matthew Macklin last year might have been the end of the road for Rose, but he still believes he has one more run in him.

Losing this fight isn't an option for Rose if that is the ambition as I am not sure where he can go if he is defeated by Arnfield. The latter is showing improvements in his fights, but I am not sure he is going to be a World Champion although it does feel like Arnfield has perhaps passed by Rose who is on the way down.

Arnfield has won four fights in a row since his loss to Nick Blackwell but this is his toughest test since then. The key question has to be how much Rose has left in the tank because he would have been a big favourite in a fight like this eighteen months ago, but the feeling is that Rose has perhaps seen his best days.

If Rose still has something he can win this fight, but Arnfield is the younger and physically bigger man and I think that will be a difference maker. Neither can really describe themselves as power punchers, but I can see them delving into something of a tear up at times with local pride at stake.

Rose has been stopped in three of his four previous losses, and Arnfield has stopped two of his last four opponents. That might tempt some in to back the younger fighter to earn a big win for his CV with a stoppage, but I think the most likely result is Arnfield winning this one on points.

I like Rose, but I do think this is the end of his career and Arnfield can out-box him from range and stay out of trouble. I did consider Arnfield winning this one late on as perhaps he picks off Rose as the potential for The Lion's corner to prevent him taking too much punishment is high. There is needle from the weigh in too but pride should make sure Rose hears the final bell in what is likely to be a losing decision.

Jorge Linares vs Anthony Crolla II

When these fighters met in September, I picked Jorge Linares to win the fight and was surprised that they were set as a pick 'em.

I can't say much has changed in this one except the fact the layers have understood that Linares is one of the top fighters in this Division and so this time he comes in as a healthy favourite to beat Anthony Crolla.

You have to like Crolla- he is a Manchester United fan, which will always sit well with me, but his recovery from the attack he suffered when preventing a neighbour being burgled is inspiring. Some thought he wouldn't fight again, but instead he became a legitimate World Champion and so you have to root for someone like that.

I'd love to see Crolla win the title and either have the trilogy fight with Linares or head to Vegas to take on Mikey Garcia, the American who will be a keen observer while working for Showtime in the United States. However that means Crolla being able to overturn the clear difference in quality that Linares showed against him in the first fight and I am not sure he can do that.

Some will point to the way Crolla beat Darleys Perez in the second fight after a draw was the outcome of the first, but Crolla should have earned the decision in the first fight and knew he could win the rematch. I am not sure he will really believe he can get the better of Linares without the Venezuelan having an off day, but most who have seen him this week will suggest Linares looks in better shape than he did for the first fight.

The big money fights are there for Linares with a win and I think he is showing plenty of confidence in coming back to Manchester to take on the home fighter again. He looks a little stronger this time and Linares came close to stopping Crolla in Round 6 in the first fight and is definitely someone who could be a threat to close the show early in this one.

Linares has talked up the prospect of the early Knock Out, but he is a smart and wily fighter who won't take unnecessary risks early. For Crolla there has been talk of upping the pressure in the second half of the fight than he did the first time around and looking for that to change a couple of Rounds around to help him secure the upset, but I do think Linares has all the tools to diffuse Million Dollar.

I think this is a fight that Linares will feel comfortable in and he can make his counter shots more telling than they were in the first fight. I think he might be able to catch Crolla a little more cleaner in the second half of the fight this time around and perhaps produce an emphatic win without the need to take the risk of going to the cards.

Anthony Crolla has only been stopped once before and he showed how tough he is when he came back from a terrible Round 6 to reach the cards last time out. However I am looking for Linares to be a little sharper with his shooting this time and I think the Champion will take away the judges with a late stoppage in this one as Crolla is perhaps saved by his corner or caught with something as he tries desperately to close the gap on the cards.

That is likely to happen, if at all, in the second half of the fight as Linares wears down Crolla and I will have a small interest in that happening.

MY PICKS: Jack Arnfield Decision or Technical Decision @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jorge Linares Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Tennis Picks 2016 (March 25th)

The tournament in Miami has proven to be another good one for the picks in the early days, but there is still plenty of work to be done to make sure this is another tournament that gets the season moving back towards the positive.

The Second Round in the ATP Masters event begins on Friday and you know most eyes are going to be on Roger Federer taking on Juan Martin Del Potro.

We all know the Del Potro story as he continues his return from another long injury lay-off and he remains my favourite player on the Tour so I will always watch his matches with a keen interest. This would be a big match regardless, but the added factor is trying to figure out how Roger Federer is feeling coming off his first surgery of his career which has seen him miss the Tour since the Australian Open.

Federer is coming back earlier than expected and he has spent the last couple of years missing the Masters event in Miami so this looks a great match to look forward to.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The head to head is in favour of Jeremy Chardy who has won both previous matches against Fernando Verdasco although they haven't played against one another since 2010. However the Frenchman hasn't been at his best in 2016 and he has lost three matches in a row which will have dented some of his confidence.

In saying that, Fernando Verdasco is not someone I plan on backing too often this season unless he can start bringing some consistency back into his performances. He is another player that hasn't really had a lot of success in 2016, but his win over Gilles Muller in the First Round was impressive and suggests the conditions might suit him in Miami.

The Spaniard did have four early exits in a row before reaching the Fourth Round last season and I do think the slower conditions here gives Verdasco more of a chance to play his natural game than Jeremy Chardy. The latter has a decent first serve which will help him, but Verdasco might feel he will get the better of the extended rallies if he can use his forehand to pepper the backhand.

I'd be surprised if this is anything but a close match, but it is one that I feel Verdasco might have more confidence to deal with the big moments. There are times when it feels tough to trust Verdasco but he can get the better of Chardy for the first time on the professional Tour with a 64, 67, 75 kind of win.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: I will be putting aside some time on Friday evening to watch this Second Round match live as two players I love to watch meet in Miami. Juan Martin Del Potro has always been one of my favourite players on the Tour, while Roger Federer's style and panache makes it tough to really dislike him and not many play tennis in his way.

The only disappointment at this moment is the uncertainty that surrounds both players ahead of this match. Federer is coming off knee surgery and it will be interesting to see how he deals with his first significant injury and long lay-off from the Tour not of his own making.

On the other hand we have Del Potro still working his way back to being full time on the Tour, although I have been impressed with how he has dealt with the lower Ranked players he has played. Del Potro even challenged Tomas Berdych in Indian Wells before falling away in the second set and there is a real confidence he can get back to the top of his game in the coming months as long as the Argentinian can steer clear of injuries.

So why do I think Federer will be a little too good on the day? I am still not convinced Del Potro is fully comfortable with his backhand and that is going up against Federer's own improved shot from that wing. I also think Del Potro is trying to get back up to speed and that has resulted in a couple of poor service games in a set of tennis which will give Federer a chance to take control of this match.

Mentally it will be interesting to see how Federer deals with the return from an injury, but I think physically he will be ready to compete. The conditions don't really suit either player as much as you'd think, but Federer can work his way to a 75, 64 win and a place in the Third Round as well as improving his head to head against Del Potro.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It might be Richard Gasquet that leads the head to head, but all three previous matches have gone the distance against Albert Ramos-Vinolas. The Second Round match in Miami might be another close one especially with the conditions slower than other hard courts which should favour Ramos-Vinolas.

I am not sure it will be enough for the Spaniard to win the match outright, but it should make him feel a little more comfortable on the court. Ramos-Vinolas may prefer the clay courts, but he had a decent week in Indian Wells with a big win over Nick Kyrgios in the Second Round, and the slower conditions in Miami may make him feel he can have some joy from the extended rallies.

The last three appearances in Miami suggests that Richard Gasquet has also begun to appreciate the conditions at this tournament and he has reached the Semi Finals in 2013. However, he did miss last season and Gasquet might be caught cold by Ramos-Vinolas who has given him troubles in the past.

The key for Ramos-Vinolas is making sure he makes full use of the lefty serve and try and put some pressure on Gasquet by getting him to move around the court. His forehand does naturally go into the Gasquet backhand which remains a big weapon for the Frenchman, but I think Ramos-Vinolas might be able to steal at least one set which should give him a chance to cover with this number of games in his pocket.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Betway (2 Units)

Miami Update: 7-2, + 8.52 Units (18 Units Staked, + 47.33% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (March 25th)

The Miami Open is underway, but I can best describe the Wednesday action as being qualifier loaded which also meant the matches had been set late and the layers were playing catch up when it came to prices being dished out.

Half of the matches scheduled for Wednesday involve a player that has come through the qualifiers and that can work in two ways for those players- the first is that they are tired after playing on back to back days and are then picked off by their First Round opponent, or two that they are battle hardened and can catch an opponent who is not as familiar with the conditions as they are.

Of course the majority of those coming through the qualifiers will be hoping it is the latter as the First Round action continues. The big names on the Tour won't be in action until the end of the week but that doesn't mean there isn't any potential for picks before that.


After the disappointment of Indian Wells for the picks, there is a feeling that this new week can be more productive after both picks came in on Tuesday. The Monica Niculescu pick had the element of luck that was missing at Indian Wells and hopefully that will be built upon over the next couple of weeks.


Alison Riske - 3.5 games v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni: These players meet for the second tournament in a row, but I would be very surprised if Alison Riske is able to dismiss Mirjana Lucic-Baroni as comfortably as she did in Indian Wells.

Well it was comfortable on the scoreboard at least, but could have been a completely different match if Lucic-Baroni had taken the chances that had come her way.

Neither player can really point to a lot of form to take into the match so the win at Indian Wells may be an important deciding factor and also means Riske has won the last two matches between these players. Both players can be erratic though and you can never be completely sure what you're going to see on the court when either takes to it.

Lucic-Baroni did had to pull out of the tournament in Acapulco with an injury and I do wonder if that is still a lingering concern for her and I will look for Riske to win a closer match than at Indian Wells. If Lucic-Baroni can take the chances that come her way, she has every chance of causing an upset, but I think Riske will have enough confidence in her return game to come through 64, 64.


Jan-Lennard Struff v Benjamin Becker: It has been a poor start to the 2015 season for Jan-Lennard Struff who may have felt it is the right time for him to really start pushing up the World Rankings. Instead he has slipped a little after winning just two matches since Auckland in January and now faces his compatriot Benjamin Becker.

Becker is another player that might have looked at his 2014 performances and expected himself to kick on up the World Rankings, but he too has suffered a lot more losses than wins in the first three months of the season. However, Becker may have gained some confidence from two wins at the Irving Challenger last week and I can understand that as being a reason he is favoured to win this match.

In saying that, I think Struff has been unfortunate not to have more wins under his belt as he has missed match points in a defeat in Rotterdam and lost a Davis Cup rubber 10-8 in the fifth set to Gilles Simon.

I do think Struff has some real upside about his game, but he has to cut out the sloppy errors that have put him in trouble in matches, but I expect him to be aided by Becker who is never far away from a sloppy service game himself. There is every chance this needs a deciding set to separate the players, but I will look for Struff to earn the breakthrough and perhaps set him up for a decent run in a kind draw in Miami.


Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: He has come through the qualifiers and plays left-handed, but I struggle to make much more of a case for Ruben Bemelmans against Juan Monaco in this First Round match on Wednesday.

Any player that comes through the qualifiers has to be respected, especially as Bemelmans had to come from a set down to beat Dustin Brown in the final qualifying match. However, he won't be helped by the mistakes that Brown makes in this match as Juan Monaco is capable of sitting out on a court all day and playing long rallies.

Monaco is making his way back up the Rankings at a good time of the season for him with the clay court season not far away and the last month on the Tour has been particularly productive for him. The hard courts are not his favoured surface, but I think he can outlast Bemelmans in this First Round match, particularly as the Belgian player is not really accustomed to playing at this level.

As I said, you have to respect a qualifier, but I would imagine Monaco will wear down Bemelmans who has had a couple of days tennis under his feet already. Both sets should feature a number of break point chances for both men, but I expect Monaco is perhaps a little more ruthless in a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 2-0, + 3.32 Units (4 Units Staked, + 83% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (March 25-26)

The games continue to come thick and fast, but more weekends like the one we just seen would bankrupt the layers after 19 of the 20 strongest favourites through Europe all came through as winners.

It was bliss for the casual fan with the top teams all producing wins, including last minute goals for Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur at odds on... While most will have been celebrating this week, I would urge caution that there is bound to be a week when all the favourites fail to win their games, especially with the pressure of the end of the season beginning to weigh heavy on the shoulders.


There should be a fascinating end to the top flights in Spain and England after the results this weekend and it may now come down to which of the teams can hold their nerves best in the big games. In England, there does seem to be more competition that will produce the surprise results compared with Spain where the big three teams look head and shoulders above the rest of the Division.

In Spain, that means there is a different type of pressure with none of the teams being able to afford dropped points, but a lot is pointing the Barcelona v Atletico Madrid game that ends the season as being a potential title decider.

The Premier League will be no less fascinating as Manchester City and Chelsea both have to visit Liverpool, while the former also has trips to Manchester United and Arsenal this week.

All in all, I expect fireworks down the stretch in both those Divisions.


This midweek has a full schedule of games from the Primera Division and a few 'catch up' games in the Premier League, including the huge Manchester derby which rarely fails to produce fireworks.


Arsenal v Swansea Pick: The 6-0 thumping at the hands of Chelsea will have left Arsene Wenger heartbroken and you could tell from his press conference that he had been extremely let down by his team who just failed to turn up for a huge game.

For the third time this season, Arsenal were crushed at the hands of a title rival and it will take something special for them to pick themselves up and get back in the race for the Premier League. A top four spot is the best they can really hope for now unless the three teams ahead of them all collapse at the same time and Arsenal have to avoid slipping up here to give the teams below them a sniff of the Champions League places.

However, they are dealing with a number of injuries coming into the game and that may make it more difficult to see off a Swansea team that have found goals away from home in recent weeks.

Swansea created plenty of chances at Everton, but were poor defensively in their 3-2 loss at the weekend, but it does also mean they have scored in 5 straight away games in all competitions. That includes at Liverpool and Napoli so Garry Monk will be insisting to his side that they can cause troubles for an Arsenal team that will also be missing Laurent Koscielny as well as a number of midfield players.

It also has to be noted that Arsenal have conceded in their last 4 games at the Emirates Stadium and there will be a feeling that Swansea may be able to cause a surprise in this one. Personally, I think Arsene Wenger has helped his side recover from devastating defeats already this season that the home side sneak the win, but I can't back them to do so at short odds.

Instead, I have a feeling that both teams will have the chance to score in this one and will back that to happen.


Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: The Manchester derby is a big occasion for both teams as Manchester United look to show they have finally turned a corner in a difficult season, while Manchester City will look to put some more pressure on the two teams above them in the Premier League table.

It could also be important for Manchester City to show themselves that they can get through this daunting run of fixtures that will see the side stop off at Old Trafford, the Emirates Stadium and Anfield in the next three weeks. If City can win this game, they will move on with confidence of securing the necessary points at Arsenal and Liverpool, but a defeat may place a real seed of doubt in their player's minds and make those two games incredibly difficult to win.

Being out of all the other competitions will only help Manuel Pellegrini focus on the task at hand now and I do think this is going to be an incredibly difficult game for Manchester United, despite the improved results in the last seven days.

If you're being critical, the wins over Olympiacos and West Ham United are not really setting a benchmark for taking on a team of the calibre of Manchester City, especially if Manchester United play as they did against Liverpool.

There was a lack of grit in that game and I think Michael Carrick will be given a much tougher examination by this Manchester City side than he was at Upton Park if he has to remain in one of the centre half positions.

In saying that, I thought United played with a real attacking fluidity in the game at West Ham and I think it only highlights my thought that David Moyes had to pick either Wayne Rooney or Robin Van Persie and allow Juan Mata to play in a more natural position. The absence of Van Persie has forced Moyes' hand and I do think they can get at a Manchester City team that can be vulnerable to being attacked.

However, even in the absence of Sergio Aguero, Manchester City should have a lot of success when they have the ball at their own feet and the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva and Samir Nasri should exploit the space they have as well as having the pace to cause panic in the United defence.

Manchester City have won 4 of the last 5 Premier League games against Manchester United and have also won on their last 2 visits to Old Trafford. Both teams have also usually troubled the scoreboard with 5 of the last 6 Premier League games seeing both score as well as the last  5 games at Old Trafford and the best value may be backing the away team to win this one after both teams score, although I would love United to prove me wrong.


Newcastle United v Everton Pick: This looks an extremely difficult game from which to pick a winner considering the poor away form Everton have shown in recent weeks and Newcastle United finding a couple of late winners at home to earn back to back wins.

The layers believe Everton are the more likely winners and that is probably a correct assessment, but I can't back them after they have lost 4 straight away games in all competitions and haven't won an away game in the Premier League since before Christmas.

The only aspect of this game that seems to have been prevalent in both teams recent form is the chance of there being a late goal in this one. Newcastle have scored late goals in their last 2 home games to earn the three points, but it also has to be pointed out that there have been goals scored in the last 10 minutes of their last 6 games at St James' Park.

Everton have also scored or conceded a goal in the last 10 minutes of their last 5 games including in their last 2 away games at Chelsea and Arsenal.

With all that in mind, I think there is a chance that both teams are pushing for goals with this game going down to the final quarter of the match and there is every chance there will be another late goal in this fixture, as there was when the teams met at Goodison Park.


Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: There really isn't a lot to say about Liverpool at the moment as they are simply blowing teams away with their attacking prowess and it is hard to imagine how Sunderland are going to be able to slow them down, especially at Anfield.

Here a few numbers: Liverpool have scored at least three goals in 6 straight Premier League games, while they have scored at least four goals in their last 3 games at Anfield and their last three wins have all come by three goal margins.

That makes it incredibly tough for Sunderland to try and keep up considering Steven Fletcher and Fabio Borini won't be taking part in this game and you can forgive Gus Poyet for perhaps already be looking ahead to the West Ham United game on Monday night.

However, with 10 games left to play, Sunderland can't afford to let any games slip by and there will be a definite concern when it comes to goal difference which may prove to be critical when it is all said and done in May.

I expect Poyet to put together a solid defensive scheme for Sunderland, but they have looked a tired squad at times in recent weeks and may have an extremely difficult time dealing with Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge. These two players will use their pace to stretch the away team and I can only see them helping the home team secure another three points and likely in very straight-forward fashion.


West Ham United v Hull City Pick: As bad as West Ham United looked in attack on Saturday, Sam Allardyce is very good at getting his team to raise their levels in games they should be winning and I expect a much stronger performance in this game.

Before the loss to Manchester United, West Ham had won 3 in a row at home against the likes of Norwich City and Swansea and I think they have enough in their squad to find the goals to win this game.

I don't under-estimate what Hull City bring to the table as they are a solid team who play as a real team and they have shown they are feeling confident with away wins at Sunderland and Cardiff City.

However, I do wonder if the players just take a breath in this game having secured an important three points on Saturday against West Brom and perhaps thoughts have turned to the FA Cup Semi Final against Sheffield United in two and a half weeks from now. Steve Bruce will guard against complacency, but it can be human nature at times and I think I will have a small interest in West Ham winning this game at a decent price.

MY PICKS: Arsenal-Swansea Both Teams to Score @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Newcastle-Everton Time of Last Goal After 73rd Minute @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

March Update: 20-18, + 9.46 Units (66 Units Staked, + 14.33% Yield)

February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)