Boxing Picks 2026- Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman (Saturday 28th March)

This weekend represents the beginning of a very busy run for those Heavyweights associated with Frank Warren and his Queensberry stable- over the next seven weeks, almost the entire Division led by Warren will be out in big fights or main events and the Heavyweight landscape could look very different at the end of that run.

A World Title will be defended, but there is plenty of intrigue around young (Moses Itauma) and older (Tyson Fury) fighters as they look to get into the mix.

Oleksandr Usyk is still the man to beat in the Division, but he is taking on an opponent that feels little more than an exhibition for the unbeaten Champion.

A bigger fiht will be expected at the end of the year and that is where the names going out over the next several weeks have to push their credentials.

Moses Itauma is headlining a solid fight card in Manchester, but there is also a significant night planned in the United States where Sebastian Fundora defends his Light Middleweight World Title against Keith Thurman.

Much like the card in Manchester, this is a fight that was delayed by an injury to the 'A' side name, but it is a solid looking card in Las Vegas and the main event is likely going to give the victorious fighter plenty of big options going forward.

The last ten months have been pretty disappointing for the Boxing Picks and that has covered the back end of 2025 into 2026.

A little bit of luck has been missing at times, but it is important to try and avoid the poor decisions which have made things a little more difficult.

Moses Itauma vs Jermaine Franklin

Soon after making his professional debut, suggestions that Moses Itauma had targeted becoming the youngest Heavyweight World Champion of all time quickly propelled the story forwards.

In a four Belt era, that did sound a possibility if Moses Itauma could fulfil his obvious potential, but the recent investment of Saudi Arabia tied those Belts up.

Moses Itauma has also had a couple of delays in his career through injury, but there is every chance that this 21 year old can place himself pretty high on the list of youngest Heavyweight Champions later this year.

All of those plans would be ripped up if Itauma is not able to move past Jermaine Franklin, an American Heavyweight best known for losing a tight Decision to Dillian Whyte before a more straightforward defeat to Anthony Joshua on the cards.

Those two fights came in a four month period between November 2022 and April 2023, but Franklin has not really been able to build on that experience. Losing both meant some lost momentum, but it is a disappointment to note that Jermaine Franklin has fought just three times in almost three years, albeit winning all three times.

Two of those wins were against unbeaten opponents, but this is a considerable step upwards and Franklin was pretty one-paced in his win over Ivan Dychko back in September.

He has promised a war, but Jermaine Franklin cannot rely on being the faster fighter in this one and Moses Itauma has shown he can close gaps and is very comfortable letting his hands go.

Frank Warren and those around Itauma would love to see him put some Rounds in the bank before stepping up towards the very World level. None of the last nine opponents have been able to hear the bell for the Third Round and that is why they have targeted Jermaine Franklin here.

However, it also feels a good opportunity for the connections to talk up Moses Itauma even further if he can do something that former World Title Challenger Dillian Whyte and World Champion Anthony Joshua have failed to do and actually Stop this opponent.

Jermaine Franklin has shown he can roll with the shots and is solid enough to take some big shots and steer out of trouble, but doing that against someone as ruthless as Moses Itauma is a big ask.

If he shows any sign of being hurt, Moses Itauma will step on the gas and he may be able to secure his latest Stoppage a little after the first two Rounds, but before the second half of the contest is set to begin.

At 36 years old, Nathan Heaney is looking for one last run and for a second win in a row as he looks to move towards a potential British Middleweight Title bid.

He is a former British Champion, but that Title was ripped away from him by Bradley Pauls.

Nathan Heaney was Stopped in a comeback fight in February 2025, but that result was later turned into a No Contest and he is going to be well backed by his huge supporter base when returning to the Co-Op Arena in Manchester.

His opponent may not be a former British Champion, but Gerome Warburton fought for the vacant Title last year and ultimately was Stopped by Kieron Conway.

Gerome Warburton has not really fought at that level prior to the defeat to Conway and this is another tough test for him, even if Nathan Heaney is past his best.

Neither is a huge puncher and the cards may be needed for Heaney to put a win on the board that will take him closer to a fight for the British Middleweight Title, which looks about the level he will reach at this latter stage of his career.

The aforementioned Brad Pauls is also on this deep card of domestic fighters looking to push onto the next level.

The 32 year old is a former British Champion and only relinquished his Title to Denzel Bentley on the cards, but the inactivity can be a problem when facing a hungry Shakiel Thompson.

Activity is the difference between the fighters after Thompson secured three wins in 2024 and two in 2025, while there is no doubt that the height and length work in favour of the unbeaten southpaw.

It is a step up in level against a former British Champion, but Shakiel Thompson has shown his power at the domestic level and can make a big statement here.

The chief support also looks a good one between Willy Hutchinson and Ezra Taylor.

It looks like it will be a competitive fight with Taylor protecting an unbeaten record, but stepping up his level against Willy Hutchinson who has the best win on the resume when getting the better of Craig Richards.

Losses to Lennox Clarke and Joshua Buatsi perhaps highlight a limit to where Hutchinson can go in his career, but he may still have a bit too much for Ezra Taylor.

Both fighters should have their moments, but Hutchinson may do enough to nick this one on the cards.

Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman

The WBC will have to make a decision about their Light Middleweight World Title sooner than later if Sebastian Fundora continues to insist that he will be targeting the big money fights rather than other Champions or his mandatories.

Those involve taking on big name veterans and there have been reports that Sebastian Fundora has already explored a fight with Errol Spence Jr, who is expecting to return after a three year layoff in the summer.

Overlooking Keith Thurman would be a mistake, but the 37 year old has been incredibly inactive and you do have to wonder what he has in the tank- at his peak, Thurman would have been a real threat with his style, but it feels like it will be much harder to execute across the full Twelve Rounds of this Title fight and especially against the relentless pressure that Sebastian Fundora will bring.

Keith Thurman has had just two fights since his 2019 defeat to Manny Pacquiao and just three Rounds since 2022- this is not ideal preparation against an awkward, active fighter like Sebastian Fundora.

Three years ago Sebastian Fundora was being KO'd by Brian Mendoza, who is on the undercard, but he has bounced back with three wins in a row- he fought twice last year, including a second win over Tim Tszyu and the momentum is going to be tough to stop.

A competitive fight is expected, at least early, but Sebastian Fundora may be able to wear down and ultimately overwhelm Keith Thurman in this main event.

A Stoppage could come from a compassionate corner or referee and that is likely after Keith Thurman has spent his gas tank, which is some time after the bell for the Seventh Round is rung.

The aforementioned Brian Mendoza is on the chief support against once beaten Yoenis Tellez- the latter is continuing his rebuild following the defeat to Abass Baraou.

Brian Mendoza is 32 years old, but he has not been active enough.

If he had been, Mendoza could be in a position to earn an upset, but the likelihood is that Yoenis Tellez will do enough to take this one on the cards.

There is plenty of action scheduled for the undercard, but the other fight that stands out is the continued development of Yoenil Hernandez who is unbeaten in nine fights and has earned eight Stoppages.

Not only does he fight in the wide open Middleweight Division, but Hernandez has already got himself a solid Ranking with a number of the organisations.

It would be a pretty big upset if veteran Terrell Gausha is able to derail Hernandez, especially having not been in the ring for twelve months.

However, Gausha is very savvy and tough and he has given opponents something to think about- he was beaten on a Split Decision by Elijah Garcia last year and was outpointed by Carlos Adames for the WBC World Title in this Division.

That toughness could see him push Yoenil Hernandez and at least force the unbeaten contender to have to lean on the scorecards for the victory.

MY PICKS: Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Nathan Heaney to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Shakiel Thompson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Willy Hutchinson to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Sebastian Fundora to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Yoenil Hernandez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2026: 7-15, - 9.97 Units (37 Units Staked, - 26.95% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 12 Pick 2026- Women's Final (Saturday 28th March)

The Miami Masters has proven to be a story of missed opportunities as yet more Break Points came and went in what turned out to be another fairly routine win for Jannik Sinner over Alexander Zverev.

The latter played better than he did in Indian Wells, but it was saving a single Break Point in one game followed by getting out of a 15-40 jam in the next that allowed Alexander Zverev to force a second set Tie-Breaker, which ultimately landed in the wrong direction for the German player.

We are about to head into the clay court season, but before that we have to see both Singles Finals completed.

The WTA Final goes up first on Saturday with the ATP Final on Sunday concluding this opening hard court run in the 2026 season.

While the majority of the top ATP players will then rest ahead of the Monte Carlo Masters in early April, the WTA takes in a clay court event in Charleston and plenty of experienced players will begin the clay court season there. In the past it has been a tournament that plays pretty differently to the European clay, but it is a big event with a 500 mark attached and that does mean seven of the current top 20 will be competing.

The clay court season does feel like it is long enough with the French Open beginning at the end of May, but the big tournaments come around very quickly and so players have to pick and choose their spots. The Madrid and Rome big 1000 events begin at the end of April through to the middle of May and at that point the majority of the big French Open contenders will take a break and prepare for what they hope will be a productive trip to Paris.

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Coco Gauff: This is going to be the thirteenth professional meeting between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff and the Miami Champion will end the night with a 7-6 lead.

It is the World Number 1 who has begun to get the better of Coco Gauff more often than not with four wins in the last six, but there is rarely a lot between the players and the slight adjustments made can turn things back around. There are perhaps some signs of that happening considering the last four between Sabalenka and Gauff have been split with two wins apiece, while the biggest win in that time is Coco Gauff's success in the French Open Final last year.

She is not just the home player in terms of this being played in the United States, but Coco Gauff was born in Florida and still lives there- this means having the local support and plenty of support from friends and family ahead of this big Final.

The run has been something of a surprise when you think the World Number 4 had to withdraw mid-match in Indian Wells and had some serious concerns about shooting pains in her arm. A MRI came back clear, but that would have reduced expectations in the second half of the Sunshine Double and it has already been a productive fortnight that will be concluded with a jump up to World Number 3 when the next set of World Rankings are released on Monday morning.

The overall level in 2026 has been a little below what is expected from Gauff, but she has looked stronger in the Miami event and that will help her confidence. The second serve continues to be a big weakness for the 22 year old as she continues to try and develop her tennis, but Coco Gauff has been able to cover up those issues by making more first serves and backing it up with solid returning numbers.

She is going to need all of that and more if she is going to upset the World Number 1 who has followed the title win in Indian Wells by producing high quality tennis here in Miami.

Aryna Sabalenka will be particularly pleased with getting the better of Elena Rybakina for a second tournament in a row after losing the Australian Open Final against the World Number 2, and the serve continues to put her in a strong position to win any match she plays.

There is room for improvement on the return with the numbers slightly below her usual level on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka may feel her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina is proof that everything is coming together just in time for another title to be secured.

Nothing ever comes easily against Coco Gauff and that is because the American can get plenty of balls back in play and neutralise rallies when at her best.

There have been signs of that in this tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka is playing at a much stronger level than most right now and the World Number 1 can complete the Sunshine Double with a solid win in the Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 18-17, + 0.21 Units (34 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 28th March)

For the first time in a little while, one of the Tennis Picks made on Thursday felt like it had gotten through the cracks and one that should not have been made.

There has been a real focus on my part to ensure that only selections that pass a few check boxes are written up, but the Arthur Fils selection in his Quarter Final felt like a wrong decision and is one to put in the learning box.

Jessica Pegula won, but did not cover on the day too, although that selection still feels like it would return as a winner more often than not and so it is not really one that will leave a bad taste in the mouth. In reality even the Picks that feel the best can ultimately lose, but it has been a clear approach to tighten the way the selection process is made.

We are onto ATP Semi Final day on Friday with the Women's and Men's Finals to be played over the weekend with both the headline match of Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Bouncing back from a poor Thursday is the only ambition from the Semi Final matches set to head out onto the court.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Failing to win a match since suffering an injury at the Australian Open had to have raised some concerns for fans of Novak Djokovic.

Reports suggested the former World Number 1 might have also called time on the surprising partnership with Andy Murray that had been announced on the eve of the new season beginning, although that was denied by Novak Djokovic.

With that in mind, it has been an important few days in Miami at the end of March with Novak Djokovic now the favourite to win the Masters event. His performances have been impressive and Djokovic has used the event to remind everyone that he remains one of the top players on the Tour, even if others are perhaps receiving a bit more attention for their tennis.

Novak Djokovic faces fellow veteran Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final with the Bulgarian also showing off considerable form at the event. Most importantly is the fact that Dimitrov has looked healthy with a number of mid-match retirements already on the board in 2025, which would have raised some concerns about the Bulgarian and his prospects.

The serve has been an immense weapon for Grigor Dimitrov in Miami, and that has perhaps covered up some of the returning shortcomings. This will be that much tougher to do on Friday in the ATP Semi Final against a return player as effective as Novak Djokovic and that will put Dimitrov under some pressure to get into the return games.

This looks a tough challenge considering the level of serving we have seen from Novak Djokovic throughout this Masters event.

He has also had significantly better returning numbers compared with Grigor Dimitrov, while Novak Djokovic holds the mental edge having won twelve of thirteen previous matches between the players. That record reads a perfect 7-0 on the hard courts and in those matches there has been a huge edge to Novak Djokovic on the serve (88% of games held compared with Grigor Dimitrov's 70% number).

There is no doubting the talent of Grigor Dimitrov and his ability to string points together when at his best, as he has been this week in Miami. However, Novak Djokovic is playing at a higher level and that has proven to be decisive when these players have met on the Tour in the past.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-9, + 1.24 Units (21 Units Staked, + 5.90% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 28th)

It was a tough day for the Tennis Picks and ended with a 2-3 record, but there is still some time left at the Miami Masters to turn things back in our favour.

The WTA Fourth Round matches were concluded on Monday and it is the turn of the ATP tournament to have their entire Fourth Round played on Tuesday. We also have a couple of the WTA Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played and the expectation is that the entire schedule will be completed, despite the chance of some rain later in the evening in South Florida.

Now we have gotten into the later stages of the Miami Masters, there are some top matches scheduled to be played and you can read my thoughts for the day below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Novak Djokovic is likely going to have something to say about this over the next several months, but there isn't a player performing at a higher level than Carlos Alcaraz playing in Miami at this Masters tournament. Daniil Medvedev might have had a case to make, but he was dismissed by the World Number 1 in the Indian Wells Final and Carlos Alcaraz is a favourite to complete the Sunshine Double having dominated in his two wins in this event.

He hasn't only been feasting on the kind of draw a Number 1 Seed can earn, but Carlos Alcaraz has wins over the likes of Cameron Norrie, Jannik Sinner and Medvedev and is a significant favourite against Tommy Paul in this Fourth Round match.

The American deserves a lot of credit for the kind of improvements he has made in his tennis over the last eighteen months and Tommy Paul is going to be back at his career best World Ranking of Number 18 regardless of the result on Tuesday. He could move much further up the World Rankings by going on and winning the Miami Masters, but over the last twelve months we have seen Tommy Paul struggle to compete with the top 10 players on the Tour, even on his favourite hard court surface.

In saying that, Tommy Paul did beat Carlos Alcaraz at the Canadian Masters last summer, although he had to save a lot of Break Points on the day. You have to think it would not take a lot to change the outcome of that match for the World Number 1, and the numbers produced in the last two hard court tournaments are extremely strong.

A strong serve should keep Tommy Paul at bay, but Carlos Alcaraz is also breaking in 36% of return games played and I do think he will put Paul under pressure.

In the eight matches played against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Tommy Paul has actually won fewer than 60% of service points played and I expect he will need to fend off plenty of Break Points in this match against Carlos Alcaraz. He may even be able to do that, but the pressure could be telling and Alcaraz looks like a player keen to hold onto the Number 1 Ranking before the start of the clay court season, one in which he will feel amongst the favourites to win the French Open.

Carlos Alcaraz can earn the revenge for the sole loss to Tommy Paul at this event and I think he is playing at an extremely high level that can see him break down the opponent.

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: I have a lot of time for Andrey Rublev, who seems a genuinely good person, but he will need to give himself time to really appreciate how good a tennis player he is. I say that in light of the recent viral video which saw him talking up Carlos Alcaraz having watched him hitting in training, while also downplaying his own ability and that may have contributed to the tough results Rublev has had against the better players on the Tour.

In Tennis, like many sports, you need to have belief in yourself before you can really produce your best.

I think Andrey Rublev knows he is a good player, but he certainly feels there are better players out there and that can produce a mental hurdle that is difficult to overcome in the most pressurised of spots.

Over the last twelve months, Andrey Rublev has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, and his numbers drop significantly on the serve and return in those matches compared with his overall totals. He is clearly a capable player, but Rublev perhaps does not see himself in the same way as those around him in the Rankings and that has contributed to the big drop in level.

He is facing a tough opponent in Jannik Sinner in this big Fourth Round match, but the Italian has also struggled to a 2-6 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. However, Jannik Sinner has been unfortunate in a couple of very close matches that could have easily gone his way and that is backed up by the numbers.

Jannik Sinner needs to get a little more out of his serve when it comes to playing the better players on the Tour, but we have seen signs of that in 2023. In five matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface this calendar year, Sinner has won 65% of his service points played and he has stronger numbers on the serve and return compared with Andrey Rublev.

They have met four times on the Tour, but Rublev's two wins have come in matches that have not been finished as Jannik Sinner has been forced to 'retire'. The other two have resulted in Sinner wins, but this is the first time they will have had a proper match on the hard courts (just three games played when they faced off in Vienna in October 2020).

While I am anticipating a close match, I do think Jannik Sinner has been the stronger player to open 2023 and has had a bit more success when facing the stronger players compared with Andrey Rublev. I am expecting Sinner to get a bit more out of the return of serve and that could be key to the outcome of this Fourth Round match and I will look for him to progress.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 24-23, - 5.44 Units (96 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 28th)

It was a mixed day for the Tennis Picks on Sunday, but I am looking for a strong week to turn this tournament around and just get the results moving as I would like.

This is not always easy, but I have been a touch unfortunate this week- I am always the first to be self-critical where I feel my selections have been poor, but a couple of results turning would have put this week in a much stronger place all around.

Hopefully Monday will be the start of that turnaround with the entire WTA Fourth Round scheduled to be played, while the remainder of the ATP Third Round is completed too. This is the busiest day left in the tournament in Miami and there are some big games set to head to the courts.

The conditions have been very tough for the players, but those still in the draw have done what they can and there is a big prize to be won this weekend before we move onto clay court tennis.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was a tough Second Round work out for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he needed a bit more time on the court than he may have hoped when seeing off JJ Wolf. The first two sets saw Stefanos Tsitsipas struggle to really impose himself on the match before running away with the decider and that will at least give him some confidence in what is likely to be tough conditions in Miami in this Third Round meeting.

It also doesn't help that Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be facing a confident opponent in Alex De Minaur who has been enjoying his 2022 season. After a relatively poor year on the hard courts in 2021, Alex De Minuar has bounced back in 2022 and he was a much more comfortable Second Round winner than the opponent he is going to meet in the Third Round.

Alex De Minaur has not been as effective protecting the serve as Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he has been the stronger return player with his athleticism around the court and the ability to force opponents to hit one more ball being key to his success. He looks to be heading back in the right direction as far as the World Rankings are concerned, although a much tougher stretch is coming up with the clay court season soon upon us.

The real challenge for the Australian is to try and be more competitive when he has faced a top 20 Ranked opponent on the hard courts and, despite the improvement in 2022, Alex De Minaur is just 1-4 in that situation this season. A look at the numbers in those matches over a twelve month period shows the fall in the percentage of return games in which Alex De Minaur has broken serve, while his own serve has been even more vulnerable.

It is a reason I really do believe Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to get the better of Alex De Minaur, while you cannot ignore how well he has matched up in their head to head.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has won nine of their ten professional matches and that includes the last eight in a row. The Greek player has held serve in 85% of service games played between them, while Alex Di Minaur is down at 70% and the numbers harden when you only consider the seven matches played between the players on the hard courts, all won by Stefanos Tsitsipas.

At the moment confidence is an issue for Stefanos Tsitsipas and that may give Alex De Minaur an opportunity to turn the tide on the head to head, but I do think he has plenty to prove when facing the top names on the Tour. The feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is still serving well enough to put some scoreboard pressure on the Australian and that could see the cracks exposed in his tennis.

In better form I woul expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to be asked to cover at least one more game than this, but the spread is still in a good spot for the World Number 5 to cover in a winning effort.

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: After opening the season with a title win in Sydney, the last couple of months have been much more difficult for Aslan Karatsev and inconsistent results have been the feature of his time on the Tour. He has dropped back outside the top 30 in the World Rankings and another slippage will mean losing his Seeding when it comes to the Grand Slam events and that can spiral into more poor results.

The last couple of years have been very effective for Aslan Karatsev, but his numbers have taken a serious dent in 2022 on the hard courts. The one that stands out the most is the issues he has been having when it comes to the return of serve with his break percentage dropping 9% from his 2021 numbers and the ones being produced in 2022.

That is a major drop off for a player that has never had a dominating serve and it has put Aslan Karatsev under pressure. The real surprise has been the fact that the player has lost so many matches to opponents Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and Aslan Karatsev has to be respected considering he has won all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season.

He faces another one in the Third Round when Aslan Karatsev takes on the defending Miami Champion- Hubert Hurkacz has held 90% of service games played on the hard courts and broken in 22% of return games this season and he is still Ranked inside the top 10, although Hurkacz will need a strong tournament to hold onto that position.

Hubert Hurkacz has had some solid results on the hard courts, but he has yet to really have a stand out tournament and was beaten in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells last time out. The hard courts have been an effective surface for him and winning the title here last season may mean he is back in inspired settings, while he has been playing much stronger tennis on the surface compared with Aslan Karatsev.

These two players split two hard court matches in 2021, but it was the Hubert Hurkacz serve which had the edge in terms of the numbers.

On current form it is hard to imagine Aslan Karatsev turning the form on the heavy loss suffered at Indian Wells in the Autumn of 2021 and I do think a big serving day from Hubert Hurkacz could give him a considerable edge. It builds scoreboard pressure and Hurkacz has shown he can put enough balls back in play on the return to force mistakes from opponents and that may be the case here as I look for him to move through and with a cover too.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Saville - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 15-16, - 7.04 Units (62 Units Staked, - 11.35% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 6 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 28th)

The conditions in Miami have been very hot, but the wind has picked up around the courts and that has made things tougher for players who have not really been able to hit through the court as they would on other hard courts around the Tour.

It has made for some decent Tennis being played before the move onto the clay courts and the extended rallies will have encouraged some of those who are happy on the red dirt. The big hitting players have had to temper some of their frustration when they have not seen the same reaction from their shots as they would have done when playing in the Middle East recently.

The clocks turn forward in the United Kingdom on Saturday which evening which means having to wait an extra hour before the opening matches in Miami on Sunday when Day 6 gets underway.

The remaining Third Round matches in the WTA tournament are set to be completed on another warm, but potentially windy, day and we will also see the beginning of the Third Round for the ATP players as we push towards the business end of the first Masters of the season. Some huge names are still in the draw and this is an important time for those on the WTA Tour to pick up some vital Ranking points with changes set to be made to the system which has been used to overcome the pitfalls produced by the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago.

I was hoping to have a fuller post for the Day 6 action, but that has not really panned out the way I wanted and instead I will get back to that on Day 7.

On Sunday you can see 'My Picks' for the matches scheduled.

I will update the Miami Masters totals on Sunday morning once the remaining Saturday matches have been completed. At the time of writing it does feel the Tennis Picks have bounced back after the poor Friday showing, but there are a couple of selections playing as I finish this thread which will determine whether it is a strong recovery or not.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sofia Kenin - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 18-12, + 7.58 Units (60 Units Staked, + 12.63% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 28th)

I only had the one Tennis Pick on Wednesday and Simona Halep's strong run of five games in a row to close out the match enabled that selection to be returned as a winner.

On Thursday we have two remaining ATP Quarter Final matches to be played as well as both WTA Semi Final matches on the last really busy day at the Miami Masters. The new surroundings have looked decent on the television of the limited tennis I have managed to see over the last ten days, but I am going to be interested to hear how the players feel and that should be much clearer in the weeks ahead.

There have been some fresh new faces reaching the business end of the tournament, but I am not sure that is down to the conditions as much as how the draw has panned out. Some of those faces are also players that look set to be at the start of very promising careers too, but the breakdown of the Miami event will be there for all to see soon.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: The rain in Miami meant Roger Federer's Fourth Round match against Daniil Medvedev had to be postponed until Wednesday. He did manage to move past the youngster in efficient manner, but Federer is going to have had little rest compared with opponent Kevin Anderson who won his Fourth Round match against Jordan Thompson on Tuesday.

I am not anticipating that being a big problem for Federer and I do think the Swiss player is going to be able to get past Anderson for a place in the Semi Final of the Miami Masters. I also am expecting Federer to do that in relatively serene fashion and backing him to cover a number I thought would potentially be at least one game higher.

The most famous match played between Federer and Anderson clearly occurred at Wimbledon last summer when the South African was able to rally from 0-2 down in sets for a stunning win in the Quarter Final. It was just one of those days for Federer who had the chances to win the match on multiple occasions, and I do think this is a match up that hasn't really bothered him too much.

An element of revenge was exacted by Federer in the ATP World Tour Finals in November when he proved to be an easy winner over Anderson and that also improved his record to 4-0 against the big man on the hard courts. In those matches Anderson has only held serve in 58% of his games which is a remarkably low number for someone used to holding in the high 80's as a percentage.

He has not been able to get into the Federer service games either with the former World Number 1 winning almost 75% of the points behind his own serve. I don't think Anderson is going to improve that much against Federer in Miami considering how well the latter has been serving in 2019 in general and in this tournament, while Federer's return game has been much improved over the last month at Indian Wells and here which gives him every chance of covering this spread.

Kevin Anderson has some impressive numbers in his return to the Tour having not played since the Australian Open, but this is a step up by a considerable margin from having played Jaume Munar, Joao Sousa and Jordan Thompson. With a historically bad match up in front of him, I think Anderson is going to have a hard time keeping Federer off of him and I think the latter will find the breaks of serve he needs to win this match and cover this number.

Federer has broken in just under 25% of the return games played over the last month on the hard courts and his strong performances against Anderson suggests he can make enough balls in play to find those breaks in this one too.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Backing up a big win like the one Ashleigh Barty had over Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final is going to be a tough task, but the Australian has become used to playing and winning matches at the top tournaments and that should put her in a good position to earn a spot in this Premier Event Final.

Recovering from dropping the second set to breeze through a third shows Barty is now very much amongst the best players on the Tour, although the clay court season is going to present a different test for her in the weeks ahead. However Barty has shown an all around improvement in her game over the last twelve months and I fully expect her to crack the top 10 and keep moving up the World Rankings.

Winning the title in Miami would be a huge boost of confidence for Barty and she should have a little too much for Anett Kontaveit who has battled her way through to the Semi Final.

The Estonian has really had to battle after needing three sets to win three matches in the tournament while the other saw Bianca Andreescu forced to retire in the second set. Those wins have been close affairs too and Kontaveit has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent so far in the tournament.

Matches against the top 10 players on the hard courts have been tough throughout her career and I think Kontaveit is going to have to up her level significantly if she is going to win this match against someone soon to join those Rankings. So far Kontaveit has returned very well in the tournament, but Barty has an edge on that side of her game and also seems to be serving at a higher level too.

This is a big number considering the power that Kontaveit has and the ability she has to hit through the court, but Barty's defensive skills should be a frustration to her too. The conditions are generally slower in Miami and I think that will allow Barty to switch from attack to defence and vice versa much better than her opponent and lead to a strong looking win on the day.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Miami Update: 7-3, + 5.82 Units (20 Units Staked, + 29.10% Yield)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (March 23-28)

The final international break of the season gives all domestic clubs the chance to take a breath, keep their fingers crossed that the players return without any injuries and then get ready for the big push over the final two months of the season.

That is when the big trophies are handed out and when other clubs learn their fate as to which Division they will be playing in next season, but first we have to get through the two week gap between games.

I've made my disdain for the internationals clear over the last couple of years and the 'excitement' of seeing the likes of England take on the likes of Lithuania can be hard to contain at times. There is going to be a new 'Nations Cup' in operation in the next eighteen months which is supposed to improve the quality of these breaks, but for now we have to make do with a number of mismatches as teams take another step towards the World Cup Finals in Russia which begin in fifteen months time.

There are not many rounds of Qualifiers left before we make up the next World Cup Finals though and so perhaps the intensity of games will pick up, especially those being played in the South American Qualifying Group. There are six nations who will feel they are good enough to be playing in Russia next year, but only four automatic spots and one Play Off spot for those teams.

With six games left, a big name nation looks set to miss out and so every game has taken on a new importance with two of those six games being played in the next few days. The European Qualifiers seem to be a little more 'boring' with the big nations taking on overmatched opponents, although there are at least a couple of really open looking Groups that will keep fans interested.


The World Cup Qualifiers will be played over the next few days and I will put up any picks from those games in this one thread. That will cover both rounds of games in the South American Qualifiers as well as all the European Qualifiers which are played from Friday through to Sunday.


Colombia v Bolivia Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for Colombia who can't afford to drop more points if they do want to finish in the top five of a tough section. That is the very least they would have expected when these Qualifiers began, but it does look like one of the bigger nations will miss the trip to Russia as the top six teams in South America all battle for their places.

Beating a poor travelling team like Bolivia has to be the least Colombia expect before a vital game in Ecuador next week.

Bolivia can't be underestimated having proven they can provide a shock result on their travels through previous editions of the Qualifiers having earned draws in Brazil and Argentina. They also drew in Chile earlier in this Group, even if that result was changed in the aftermath of an ineligible player being in the Bolivia line up.

Those results are the exception to the usual rule that Bolivia lose on their travels in these Qualifiers having fallen to a defeat in 28 of their last 32 away Qualifiers. They also have a poor record in Colombia having lost their last 6 games played in that country and I do think Colombia will be a little too good for them.

When Bolivia lose, they do tend to lose by a wide margin and I think Colombia can win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Paraguay v Ecuador Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for both Paraguay and Ecuador as the games begin to run out and the Group takes a more permanent shape. Anything other than a win for Paraguay will surely mean their run to the World Cup Finals in Russia is over, while a defeat for Ecuador will make them vulnerable to the three teams who are currently behind them.

However a win for Ecuador will keep the pressure on Chile, Argentina and Colombia below them and give the nation a huge step towards another World Cup Finals appearance. That should encourage them to get forward, but Ecuador have struggled away from home in recent World Cup Qualifiers and have conceded at least twice in 4 straight Qualifiers on their travels.

It should be something that inspires Paraguay who have won all 7 home Qualifiers against Ecuador in the past, but the fact that Ecuador have scored in their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers makes them dangerous too.

Both teams should have their chances to score and I would be surprised if either is satisfied with a draw which could produce an exciting game. The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here between these nations have produced at least three goals shared out and the last 3 overall between Paraguay and Ecuador have done the same.

The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think one of these teams pushes forward for the win and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a big price.


Argentina v Chile Pick: Both Argentina and Chile will be hoping they can do enough over their last six games to finish inside the top four of the World Cup Qualifying Group in South America and the winning team in this game will take a big step towards that goal. There is plenty of quality that both Argentina and Chile can call upon which should be good enough to automatically Qualify for the World Cup Finals, but both have had some struggles during this long slog.

Being at home should be an advantage for Argentina, but they have not always capitalised on that. They did, however, crush Colombia in their last World Cup Qualifier here and I think Argentina can back that up with a victory over Chile.

As well as Chile have played in recent Qualifiers to move above Argentina, they have not been as consistent away from home and their last two World Cup Qualifiers in Argentina have ended in routine losses.

The feeling is that something similar will happen here as Argentina exert their quality on a Chile team that might have a hampered and out of confidence Alexis Sanchez in the line up. Chile have lost heavily at Uruguay and Ecuador during this World Cup Qualifying campaign and I will back Argentina to cover the Asian Handicap in a win over them on Thursday.


Venezuela v Peru Pick: These two nations might have regularly become part of the also-rans in the South American World Cup Qualifiers, but this edition might have a different feel for Peru if they can win in Venezuela. That would take them onto the brink in cracking the top five places in a tough Qualifying Group, but Peru have struggled in Venezuela as they have lost their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here.

Those games have been exciting affairs for the neutrals and this one has every chance of going the same way.

Venezuela will attack at home and they do tend to score and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans. You have to think Peru will play with a little more caution as they know they have something to gain from this fixture, but this is a team who are not as strong on their travels and have been involved in some high-scoring games in recent away Qualifiers.

The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here may have been won by Venezuela, but all have seen at least three goals shared out. In fact 5 of the last 6 between Venezuela and Peru in World Cup Qualifiers have resulted in goals and this one feels it could go the same way with both teams likely to have their opportunities in front of goal.

It surprises me that the oddsmakers are offering odds against on this game featuring at least three goals and I will back that to happen.


Georgia v Serbia Pick: The oddsmakers have set Serbia as an odds on favourite to win in Georgia but it is hard to be that excited about those prices when you think they have won 3 of their last 11 away Qualifiers. The Serbian national team have won at Albania and Moldova in recent away Qualifiers, but Georgia will offer them plenty of problems in this one and I think it might be a close game.

The Serbia win in Albania came thanks to two injury time goals and they are now facing a Georgia team who don't usually collapse in home Qualifiers.

Both Poland and Germany won by at least two goals here in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but Georgia were narrowly beaten by the Republic of Ireland and have also suffered narrow home losses to the likes of Spain, Finland and Austria in recent years.

While I do think Serbia can match those teams and earn the win here, I don't think it will be an easy game for them and I do think Georgia will make life difficult. It has to be said when Serbia win away from home in these Qualifiers, they tend to do it by a wide margin, but that might not be the case here.

I am leaning towards Serbia earning a vital three points which can put them in a strong position in the Group, but I will back them to win by a one goal margin for a small interest.


Turkey v Finland Pick: The oddsmakers have set Turkey as a pretty strong favourite to win this Qualifier and you have to think home advantage is going to be telling against Finland. However I think it is going to be far from a straight forward game for Turkey who are under pressure to stay with the three teams above them in the Group with little room for error.

A slow start was overcome in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers but that had a lot to do with the additional places being offered in the Finals of that tournament. Those simply don't exist in the World Cup Qualifiers and the likes of Croatia, Iceland and Ukraine are all going to want to get to Russia having reached the Euro 2016 Finals.

Failing to win home games against Finland and matching what Iceland and Ukraine have already done would be a huge blow for Turkey and I do think they will do enough to earn the three points.

However it should be noted that Finland's 3 defeats in the Group have all come by a single goal margin and that includes in those visits to Iceland and Ukraine. Digging a little deeper into their recent away Qualifiers and you will see Finland have earned a draw in Spain and won in Greece, while also narrowly losing at Euro 2016 participants Northern Ireland and Hungary.

I have every faith Finland make this a tough day in the office for Turkey and I think the home team will have to be patient and wait for the chances to come their way. While I do think Turkey will just about edge the game, I will have a small interest on them winning this one by a single goal margin instead of looking for Turkey to win this while covering the Asian Handicap.

The oddsmakers have got the Asian Handicap at a good line and so backing Turkey to win by a single goal margin looks a decent angle for this Qualifier.


Croatia v Ukraine Pick: Over the last few years you will have regularly seen Croatia tipped as a dark horse to win a major international tournament, but they have yet to really fulfil their promise in the Finals since finishing 3rd in the 1998 World Cup. Last year was another disappointment as they went out with a whimper against Portugal in Euro 2016 despite showing so much promise in the Group.

They are the favourites to progress to the World Cup Finals in Russia next year, but one of the issues that I think Croatia need to resolve is finding a consistent goal scoring threat. They have a lot to like about their play as they reach the final third, but putting the finishing touch on chances is key to Croatia's chances of taking the next step.

It will be tested in this game against Ukraine who have played well in the Group but might be a position based on the fact that three of four Qualifiers have been played at home. The 2-2 draw in Turkey was a very good result and Ukraine have shown they are a tough team to beat in these away Qualifiers with some solid results over the last two campaigns.

Ukraine suffered a narrow loss in Spain, but they have avoided defeat in Slovakia and Slovenia and that toughness can keep them in this important game.

Ultimately I do think Croatia will be a little better on the day with home advantage important for them. It would be a surprise if it is a comfortable win though and I think backing Croatia to win by a single goal margin at minimum stakes might be the best call in this one.


Republic of Ireland v Wales Pick: As we reach the halfway stage of the European World Cup Qualifiers, this Group looks like one that might be a lot clearer by the end of this round of games. The Republic of Ireland have made a really positive start to the Group and a win on Friday night over Wales will put them in a very strong position to make it to Russia next summer.

The pressure does feel like it is on Wales to produce something having played three of their five home Qualifiers and returned just 6 points overall. While they have become harder to beat, teams have learnt that you don't want to give Wales the space to counter attack and that has made it more difficult for them to win games.

That was highlighted in the 1-1 home draw with Georgia as Wales struggled to put together the system that sees them dominate possession and break down opponents. It is likely to be a little more positive from the Republic of Ireland being at home, but Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have shown a pragmatic approach to games and the draw definitely suits them more than Wales.

Ireland have won 4 home Qualifiers in a row which will give them plenty of confidence, but this is not a team who will score a lot of goals and so opponents always have a chance against them. The injuries won't be used as an excuse for O'Neill or Keane, but it might make the draw even more appealing as it will keep the Republic of Ireland in a very strong position in the Group going into the second half of the Qualifiers.

Wales did play well away from home in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but I don't think there will be a lot between these teams. It is likely to be a tight game that might not feature a lot of goals either, but I think the draw could be the result that suits the home team and it may be the most likely outcome of this one.


Sweden v Belarus Pick: The retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the end of the Euro 2016 tournament means a new era for Sweden, but the players have responded in the right way by producing some solid performances in the World Cup Qualifiers. They are unlikely to catch France in this Group, but Sweden have every chance of finishing above the Netherlands and earning a Play Off spot.

That goal can only be achieved if they win Qualifiers like this one and I do think Sweden will be too good for Belarus when they host them on Saturday.

You can't completely discount Belarus as they have shown they are capable of producing a surprise result or two. They won in Slovakia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, which is an impressive result, but defeats to the Netherlands and Bulgaria in this Group won't inspire a lot of confidence.

The side have also 'only' managed a home draw with Luxembourg and Sweden tend to be very tough to beat at home. Sweden crushed Bulgaria 3-0 here and they have won 5 of their last 7 home Qualifiers with all but one of those wins coming by a two goal margin at the least.

At odds against I will look for Sweden to continue that run by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap in a home Qualifier win to keep the pressure on their two main rivals for the World Cup berths in this section.


Belgium v Greece Pick: This game could determine the outcome of this Group with Belgium and Greece leading the way in the section, although Bosnia-Herzegovina will still believe they can finish in the top two in the Group.

The points earned by Greece are off the back of a nice portion of their schedule with none of the wins they have earned unlikely to be matched by the other two big nations in the Group. Three of the next four games for Greece sees them take on Belgium twice and also visit Bosnia-Herzegovina and that might determine whether they are capable of making the top two in the section and a third straight World Cup Finals.

Belgium certainly look like they are going to win the Group and a win on Saturday will put them in firm control of the section. They have been playing very well in the Qualifiers as Roberto Martinez has found a way to get the attacking side of their game working to the point of scoring plenty of goals.

The home wins have been important to the foundation of their Qualifying campaigns over the last few years and Belgium have already hammered both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia at home while scoring at least four goals in each game. They should have most of the attacking play in this one and can beat Greece with something to spare.

Greece have a decent away record in recent Qualifiers, but they were beaten in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and I would expect Belgium to match that. With the goals in the squad, I will look for Belgium to win this one by a couple of goals.


Azerbaijan v Germany Pick: An impressive start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign has to have given the Azerbaijan fans some excitement that they might be able to gate crash the party being hosted by neighbours Russia next summer. It would be a real stunner if Azerbaijan were able to reach the World Cup Finals, but their win over Norway and draw in the Czech Republic will have given them a lot of confidence.

That would have been dented some by the 4-0 loss in Northern Ireland, but an upset of Germany on Sunday would reignite the Azerbaijan belief in achieving a miracle over the next several months.

That upset looks unlikely and I think Germany will prove to be too good in this one as they should be able to pull away for a comfortable win. All 4 Germany wins in the Qualifiers have been very comfortable and it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to contain a team that should have a more familiar look than the one that started the friendly with England last week.

Azerbaijan have to be respected in the fact they have challenged teams when they have visited Baku and they have not been beaten by more than two goals at home since 2011 in a Qualifier. Even the German wins here have both come by a two goal margin in their two visits during the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 Qualifiers.

However Germany have looked very strong in this set of Qualifiers and have won both away Qualifiers played by at least three goals each time. I will back them to reach that margin again in this one, but will back Germany on the Asian Handicap with the option of getting at least half the stakes returned in case of a two goal margin of victory.


England v Lithuania Pick: Most of the play is going to be made by England and they should prove to be too good for a Lithuania team they beat 4-0 in the last set of Qualifiers and who have suffered a 4-0 loss in Slovakia and a 3-0 loss in the Czech Republic in their last couple of away games.

This was a team that were also beaten 4-0 in Switzerland in the last set of Qualifiers and England have won 11 straight home Qualifiers with all of those coming by at least a two goal margin.

England have had a couple of 'poor' results in that time when you think they have 'only' beaten Estonia and Malta by the same 2-0 scoreline, but the majority of the weaker teams they have played have been brushed aside. They have won by at least three goals against the likes of San Marino (twice), Moldova, Montenegro, Lithuania and Scotland.

It should be England who have the chances and the possession to win this one at a canter and I will back them to record a comfortable win on Sunday and cover the Asian Handicap.


Northern Ireland v Norway Pick: A few years ago Northern Ireland would likely have been the underdog when facing Norway in a Qualifier, even in a game that was going to be played at Windsor Park. That is not the case at this time with Northern Ireland playing in the Euro 2016 Finals and looking like a team that has real ambitions of getting through to the World Cup Finals compared with Norway who are looking to earn experience they can use to good effect going forward.

It is a tough game to get a read on because Northern Ireland are not really a team you would associate with a lot of goals. That just means a Norway goal could be enough to avoid a defeat, but Northern Ireland have played well in home Qualifiers and I think they may just do enough to win this one.

Their home form has been strong in the Qualifiers, while Norway have been really poor in their most recent away Qualifiers. The 1-0 loss to Azerbaijan was a terrible result for Norway and it is going to be as tough in this environment where Northern Ireland have thrived.

Northern Ireland do have a terrible home record against Norway down the years, but the teams look to be in much different places now. While Northern Ireland are now a team that does look to make the major tournament Finals, Norway are just struggling to put wins on the board consistently.

It won't be easy for Northern Ireland but I do think they can earn the three points by a narrow margin in this one. I will simply look for the home team to win this one and keep the pressure on those nations chasing 2nd place in the Group.


Bolivia v Argentina Pick: This is a very important game for Argentina in their bid to make it to the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer. A tight Group means you can't really afford to drop points in a bid to finish in the top four especially not with games in Uruguay and Ecuador to come later in the Group for Argentina.

Visiting La Paz has been anything but routine for Argentina and it is hard to back them at odds on to win here this time. The side have only won 2 of their 6 away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and playing in the altitude of Bolivia has proven to be an equaliser for the home team who clearly don't have the talent that other South American sides can call upon.

Bolivia have been able to trouble teams when they have visited here and the fact they have 2 wins to Argentina's 1 over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers in La Paz indicates this will be a tough game for the away team.

However this is quite a poor Bolivia team who have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers. On the other hand they had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home Qualifiers before the 1-0 win over Paraguay and I do think Bolivia can cause some problems for an Argentina team that have struggled for goals.

Then again, Argentina had scored at least twice in 3 consecutive away World Cup Qualifiers before the 3-0 loss in Brazil, a result which means they have conceded at least twice in 3 consecutive away Qualifiers including in Venezuela and Peru.

This does feel like a game that both teams will have their chances and I am expecting both teams to score. The 1-1 is a clear scoreline that could be a player, but I think there might be enough opportunities for more and backing at least three goals to be shared out at close to odds against is a tempting enough price.

The last time these teams played here it did end 1-1, but the previous 4 World Cup Qualifiers between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz had produced at least three goals each time.


Ecuador v Colombia Pick: One of the harder teams to get a read on in the South American Qualifying Group has to be Colombia who have shown they are capable of some big results when fully focused. However they have also shown they can struggle under the weight of expectation for a nation that loves their football and the inconsistent results makes them dangerous.

This is a tough away game for Colombia as Ecuador have used their home form as a foundation for success in the Group. Ecuador have scored plenty of goals at home in the World Cup Qualifiers and have won half of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers against Colombia.

Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina have been the only teams to beat Colombia at home during the World Cup Qualifiers, but Ecuador have played well at home and can match those teams.

Colombia have only once scored more than one goal in their away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and that gives Ecuador a real chance of winning this one. This is an Ecuador team who have scored at least twice in every home game in the Qualifiers except for the when they played Group leaders Brazil and I think the home advantage could be key in a narrow win for Ecuador which takes them back into the top four in this Group.


Peru v Uruguay Pick: Nothing has been decided in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group outside of Bolivia and Venezuela being out of contention. The Peru fightback in Venezuela last week has kept them within touching distance of a place in the World Cup Finals next summer, but this is almost a must win game.

While not quite as desperate for the visitors, Uruguay have suffered heavy losses in back to back World Cup Qualifiers which has seen the gap close between them and the nations below them. Uruguay remain 2nd in the Group, but they are just 3 points clear of Chile in 6th place and they need to bounce back immediately, especially as the next two Qualifiers are against Argentina and Paraguay.

This is a tough game for Uruguay considering they have won none of their last 5 away Qualifiers and have lost 3 of those games. They have conceded at least twice in 4 of the games and will be tested by a Peru team who had scored in every home Qualifier, at least twice in 4 of 5, before the 0-2 defeat to Brazil.

Both teams will feel they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one and the onus is on Peru to keep pushing forward and try to win the game with the three points imperative for their World Cup hopes. 4 of the 6 Peru home Qualifiers and Uruguay away Qualifiers have produced at least three goals and there looks like a real potential for this game to go the same way.

The last World Cup Qualifier between Peru and Uruguay here did end with three goals shared out and I am going to back goals in this World Cup Qualifier.

MY PICKS: Colombia - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venezuela-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serbia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Turkey to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Wales Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sweden - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Northern Ireland @ 2.45 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bolivia-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 2.15 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Peru-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

March Update: 31-32-3, + 1.50 Units (129 Units Staked, + 1.16% Yield)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)