The second half of the final World Cup Qualifiers before the Play Offs are played next month will begin on Sunday and we are going to know the majority of nations who are playing in Russia next summer by Tuesday evening.
At the moment 13 of the 32 nations that can Qualify for the World Cup Final are known, but by the end of this next three days of Qualifiers that number will have become 22 of the 32 nations that can make it to Russia. The next few days are very important for a number of nations with the Netherlands effectively out of the World Cup, but who could be joined by the likes of Argentina and Chile who can't make it to the Finals.
Teams like France and Portugal, the two Euro 2016 Finalists still have work to do to finish in the automatic Qualification spots, and others like Italy and perhaps Croatia will have to work their way through the Play Offs.
Big games come thick and fast in the coming days and I will add the final World Cup Qualifier Picks in this thread.
Last week I also wrote a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here. It certainly may be more interesting than sitting through another England game to say the least.
Denmark v Romania Pick: The recent form that Denmark have put together has put them in command of 2nd place in the Group and they will be one of those nations that others will look to avoid in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. They are unlikely to win the Group with Poland needing just a point to secure top spot, but Denmark have won 4 in a row and they have pulled themselves into this spot with impressive performances.
Crushing Poland 4-0 at home and beating Montenegro 0-1 away shows what Denmark are capable of and I am not expecting them to slip up for 2nd place now. A point will do it for Denmark, but this is a team playing with confidence and scoring plenty of goals and I do think they will prove too good for Romania.
The away team have to be respected having won 3 of their last 4 games, but they are out of contention in the Group which is a disappointment for Romania. Playing away from home has been a big problem for Romania and they have suffered losses at Poland and Montenegro in their last couple of away games in the Group.
I expect Denmark to inflict a third straight defeat on Romania on their travels and I think the goals being scored makes the whole team very dangerous.
They have banged in four goals in each of their last couple of home Qualifiers including that thumping for Poland, and Denmark should prove too motivated and clinical for Romania. I will back Denmark to win and cover the Asian Handicap in their final Group game and then they can look forward to the Play Off draw which will be made in a few days time.
Lithuania v England Pick: The final World Cup Qualifier for both Lithuania and England is played on Sunday and there isn't a lot on the line for the two teams. At least England should have some motivation to try and put some wins on the board and earn a top Seed for the World Cup Finals, while Lithuania will want to produce what could be their biggest win.
It is hard to see Lithuania doing that considering the poor form they have been in in recent months. Before the 1-1 draw with Malta, Lithuania had lost 6 straight games and that includes a thumping at the hands of Scotland at home.
Lithuania were beaten 0-3 by England in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group too and I do wonder if they are going to be good enough to contain their visitors. The side have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 home Qualifiers and England will have a point to prove after being criticised for their performance in the 1-0 win over Slovenia a few days ago.
Gareth Southgate may make some changes to his starting eleven but England should still be too good for Lithuania. The Scotland win here last month is the benchmark for England and the expectation will be that the latter can at least win this one by a couple of goals.
It's hard to know what line up Southgate will pick and England laboured so much against Slovenia that they are hard to trust. However they should be a couple of levels better than Lithuania and I expect that to show up here with the away side winning with a comfortable margin on the day.
Poland v Montenegro Pick: The defeat in Denmark looks to be only real blip for Poland on the way to the World Cup Finals held in Russia next June and I fully expect them to earn their place in that tournament on Sunday evening.
Poland should have too much for Montenegro who can't afford to bide their time as they have to win and hope Denmark lose if they want to finish 2nd in the Group. It is a big ask for Montenegro just days after losing at home to Denmark which has put them in this poor position in the Group and the Montenegro players may just have lost a bit of heart.
Playing a Poland team who have been dominant at home in the last couple of Qualifying Groups is not ideal for Montenegro despite the solid results the latter have had away from home. Prior to the last fifteen months, Montenegro had not been the best travellers in Qualifiers and I think Poland have the quality in the final third to hurt them in this one.
If Montenegro have any belief, they will have to push forward in search of goals and that should pave the way for Poland to exploit spaces on the counter attack. Poland will also want to avoid any undue pressure by encouraging Montenegro in this one and potentially opening the door for an upset loss that may give Denmark a chance to steal top spot.
I can see Poland looking to dictate things from the off and they have been very good at home in recent Qualifiers. Poland have scored plenty of goals and I will be looking for them to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they counter attack a Montenegro side who are desperate for a win to keep their World Cup Finals dreams alive.
Slovenia v Scotland Pick: A really poor start to the World Cup Qualifiers saw Gordon Strachan on the brink of leaving his post as manager of Scotland, but they have been very good down the stretch and now hold their destiny in their own hands. However I wouldn't be rushing out to try and purchase Scotland Play Off tickets just yet with one more tough World Cup Qualifier in this Group to come.
They face a Slovenia team who were just minutes away from earning a draw at Wembley Stadium against England and who arguably created the better of the chances through the first hour of that game. Much of the success Slovenia have had in the Group is by being difficult to break down, but the team have not been able to produce a full performance in their away games to be left in a difficult position.
Slovenia now have to win and hope Slovakia fail to beat Malta at home and that will be the only way they can finish 2nd in this Group. A Slovakia win ends their chances and Scotland may hope an early Slovakia game sees the news filter down to the players and perhaps see Slovenia lose some competitive fire.
It is difficult to know how players will respond if they do hear Slovakia are winning but I do think Slovenia will be encouraged by being at home. They will likely come out with more attacking intent knowing a win is the only way they can have a chance of finishing 2nd in the Group and we could see a more entertaining game than the layers may think.
The layers are not expecting goals in this one, but the situation should mean both Slovenia and Scotland have to try and get on the front foot. Slovenia have not conceded a home goal which makes them very dangerous, but they will have to be more positive in this one as they look for the three points, while Scotland will know it's win or bust for them in terms of 2nd place in the Group.
Any goal will open up this game and I do think Slovenia getting forward will give Scotland a chance to counter. While the Slovenia home games have not featured a lot of goals in this Group, all 4 Scotland away games have produced at least three goals shared out even when the layers have not expected it (the price here is same as it was for at least three goals in the Lithuania-Scotland game last month).
I can't see Slovenia giving up even if they were to fall behind and the same can be said for Scotland as two teams attack until the end of the ninety minutes to try and finish 2nd in the section. There should definitely be the spaces to exploit for the teams in the final twenty minutes of this one and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.
Moldova v Austria Pick: Dead rubbers are familiar at this time of the year in the World Cup Qualifiers as teams play out the final fixtures in this Qualifying campaign. That is the case for Moldova and Austria who look set to finish in 6th and 4th place respectively in the Group.
That does make it harder to get a feel for how teams will approach the fixture, although it is likely that Austria are the superior team in this one. The confidence can't be in a great place considering how poorly this Qualifying section has gone for Austria, but Moldova have really struggled at home where they have lost 8 of 9 Qualifiers now.
Moldova have been beaten by the top three nations in this Group at home and it would be a surprise if they are able to earn another result against Austria after producing a 1-1 draw in Vienna. It does have to be said it is hard to trust Austria considering how they have played in the Group, but they showed they were good enough to win in Georgia and this is an 'easier' place to visit.
I would keep in mind that Austria don't have anything to really play for, but I will back them to finish this campaign on a high after beating Serbia on Friday and look for them to follow it up in Moldova. I will look for Austria to win by a couple of goals on the day by backing them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Serbia v Georgia Pick: All of the expectation is on the shoulders of Serbia as the fans will be looking for a confirmed place at the World Cup Finals at the end of this one. However that can build pressure on the players who may feel they have missed one shot of securing top spot in the Group by losing in Austria.
They are very much the favourites to beat Georgia who were 0-1 losers to Wales at home on Friday, but Serbia can't afford to underestimate a team who have shown considerable toughness in the section already.
Georgia were beaten narrowly in Ireland, but they have drawn in Wales and Austria so they will believe they can offer resistance to Serbia who will be anxious to win the game. That can put pressure on the home team to make the right passes in the final third and Georgia can be given additional respect when noting they only lost 2-1 in Germany in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.
This is also a nation who beat Spain 0-1 in a friendly ahead of the Euro 2016 Finals and I think the away team can be backed on the Asian Handicap. Serbia did crush Moldova 3-0 at home, but they are only 2-2-0 at home in the Group and this has the makings of a tight game.
Backing Georgia with the start should return half the stake at the very least.
Ukraine v Croatia Pick: There are a couple of these World Cup Qualifiers on Monday where two teams are playing one another with 2nd place in the Group up for grabs. Like the Wales versus Republic of Ireland game, this is another one where both teams have to think they need to win the fixture if they want to earn a Play Off spot next month.
Another similarity with that other fixture is that one of the teams involved here in the game between Ukraine and Croatia knows that anything less than a win is curtains for them. Where Croatia will look at a point as a potentially being good enough to make the Play Offs, Ukraine know they have to win and that mindset can make a difference.
Ukraine have been a strong team in recent home Qualifiers and that has to give them confidence that they have enough to win this fixture. They are perhaps not as familiar to football fans around Europe as Croatia who have some real talent in the squad, but Ukraine have been playing the better football of late.
Where Ukraine have won 7 of their last 9 home Qualifiers and have won 3 in a row in this Group, Croatia have dropped back to back away Qualifiers in Turkey and Iceland. They were also held to a 1-1 home draw with Finland and I am not sure Croatia will be able to switch things back on.
The draw doesn't look like it will be much good to either nation in all honesty, and that should make this another fun fixture to watch. However goals have been a problem for both teams and I think the first goal could be critical and on current form and with home advantage you have to lean towards Ukraine in getting that.
Backing Ukraine on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing the stake will be returned in the event of a draw looks a very attractive price. Croatia may have the Luke Modric's and Ivan Perisic's who are familiar to fans, but the team ethic of Ukraine may be enough as it has been for Turkey and Iceland in home wins over Croatia and I will back the hosts to steal 2nd place and consign Croatia to watching the World Cup Finals on television next summer.
Wales v Republic of Ireland Pick: During the build up to this game you may hear about the importance of finishing 2nd in the Group with the assumption being that Serbia will beat Georgia and earn their spot at the World Cup Finals next June.
That means it is a direct fight between Wales and the Republic of Ireland for 2nd place in the section and I do think there has been some information that may have been lost on the fans. There are NINE World Cup Qualifying Groups in the UEFA section, but only EIGHT 2nd placed teams will be competing in the Play Offs next month.
What may have been lost for fans of these two nations is that currently Wales are right on the brink of finishing as the ninth team and a draw might be good enough to finish 2nd in the Group but not enough to earn a Play Off spot. You have to assume that if I know that, Chris Coleman and the management staff are aware of the situation and that makes this a tougher game for Wales than simply attempting to avoid defeat.
It is much easier for Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane who will be telling their players anything less than a win means the World Cup dream has come to an end.
Effectively it is the same situation for Wales where the draw is only going to be good enough if the Ukraine versus Croatia game in another Group also finishes in a draw and with the number of goals scored in that draw being the same or fewer than the number Wales score.
While I am expecting this to be a tense game where neither team can afford to make a mistake, the situation where both teams need to win could actually make it a little more open than the managers would want. The layers are certainly not expecting a lot of goals with Wales missing Gareth Bale and Ireland perhaps not being the most pleasing team to watch.
However the Ireland away Qualifiers have seen 4 of the last 7 finish with three or more goals and this is a game where the teams may have to take risks throughout the contest. The draw is not likely to be a result which suits either team which should mean more attacking intent is produced and Wales did show decent enough quality going forward a few days ago against Georgia, but also some defensive vulnerability.
The situation both teams find themselves in certainly makes it feel like risks will be taken by two teams that are not normally associated with that kind of football. There should be spaces to exploit in the second half, like there were in the Slovenia vs Scotland game on Sunday, and the situation suggests backing at least three goals to be shared out could be much more likely than the layers believe.
France v Belarus Pick: Barring something as incredible as France's goalless draw with Luxembourg happening again, the home team should comfortably make their way through to the World Cup Finals on Tuesday.
Lightning doesn't usually strike twice in the same place, but France will have to be a little better in front of goal than they were in their 0-1 win in Bulgaria a few days ago.
In all honesty Bulgaria are a decent home team as they have shown over the last fifteen months and the win was a very good result for France. Playing at home against a Belarus team who have struggled on their travels should be a much more comfortable evening for the French and I think they win in dominant style.
Take away the goalless draw with Luxembourg and France have scored 10 goals in their other three home games in the Group. They have scored four times against both the Netherlands and Bulgaria at home and France have the talent to do the same to Belarus.
That is added to by the fact that Belarus have conceded four times in losses at the Netherlands and Sweden and this talented France forward line should be able to take control of this match too. Belarus conceded three times in their 1-3 home defeat to Netherlands at the weekend too and I am looking for France to dominate proceedings and back up their win in Bulgaria.
It is always a challenge for a professional team to hammer others at the international level, but I think a motivated France can score at least four times in a victory on Tuesday at a decent looking price.
Netherlands v Sweden Pick: This was supposed to be the game that would give the Netherlands one last chance to help them move above Sweden into a Play Off spot in the Group. They looked to be doing all they could to make it a possibility, but Sweden's thumping of Luxembourg on Saturday has ended the hopes of the Netherlands.
Barring a win by a seven goal margin for the Netherlands it will be Sweden who have at least a 2nd place finish in the Group.
There is more on the line for Sweden who have a chance to potentially finish above France in the Group if they can win and France fail to beat Belarus at home. That doesn't look a realistic possibility for both things to happen, but football can throw in some strange results and Sweden can have a free shot at winning this game against a demoralised Netherlands.
However I do think Holland will look to be positive earlier and they have played well at home in the Group outside of their defeat to France. Big wins over Bulgaria, Belarus and Luxembourg coupled with the fact Sweden have lost in France and Bulgaria may give the Netherlands the edge in this fixture.
Losing out on a World Cup spot has to hurt the Netherlands and perhaps even see some of the younger players in the squad be given a chance to shine. However I think Dick Advocaat will send out a positive team and I do think they are the superior team to Sweden and can win the head to head against this nation with a victory here following the 1-1 draw in Solna.
I will back the hosts to earn a Pyrrhic victory on Tuesday.
Portugal v Switzerland Pick: There are not many World Cup Qualifiers in the UEFA section with a lot on the line as we complete the initial Group games on Tuesday. That is not the case in Lisbon where Portugal and Switzerland will battle it out for a place in the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer.
Portugal know they have to win if they want to top the Group with the superior goal difference over Switzerland giving them the edge. However the Swiss will head to Lisbon having won 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers knowing any positive result will be enough to finish ahead of the European Champions and consign them to a place in the Play Offs next month.
It should be a tense evening as Switzerland try to work out whether they should stick or twist knowing a draw is a good enough result for them. This is a nation that have become very good at dealing with the Qualifying campaigns before having more issues in the Finals of those tournaments, while Switzerland have to be respected for being unbeaten in 15 games overall.
However I do also think this Portugal team have the confidence that any European Championship winner would have. They have scored plenty of goals at home with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the way for them and Portugal will feel they can eventually wear down Switzerland here.
I feel the same way and I think Portugal will prove to be a little too good for their visitors on Tuesday. They were beaten in Switzerland, but didn't have Cristiano Ronaldo that day and I think the goals scored since that defeat shows how much stress is going to be on the Switzerland defence.
It wouldn't surprise me if Portugal are able to put an exclamation point on the win late in the game as Switzerland are perhaps caught chasing the game and I will back Portugal to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Brazil v Chile Pick: There has to be some conspiracy theorists out there that have to believe Brazil will have no intention of winning this final World Cup Qualifier against Chile knowing a defeat will only increase the pressure on Argentina to finish in the top five in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group.
However I don't think the players will be concerned about all that and will be giving a full effort to win their last home game in the Qualifiers after drawing a couple of games in a row. There is the issue of Brazil having played in the altitude of Bolivia just a few days ago which may have sapped some energy, but I don't believe the players will lie down for Chile.
There is plenty of pressure on Chile too as they will know a 2-0 loss here puts them in a precarious position, while they have everything to gain by avoiding defeat which would give them a Play Off spot at the very least. Chile have not been at their best away from home in the Group where Chile have gone 2-1-5 so far and I think this is a very tough game for them.
Instead Chile could be looking at the other results in the Group and hoping things have gone their way. A lack of motivation in the Brazil squad is a concern, but this has been the stand out team in the Qualifiers and they are 7-1-0 at home in the Group. I think Brazil can earn another victory here to finish the Qualifiers in the right way and put Chile in a vulnerable spot in the Group where they are hoping other nations have not earned the results to put one of the dark horses for World Cup success out of the tournament before the Finals even begin.
Ecuador v Argentina Pick: It all comes down to one game for Argentina who have been a massive underachiever in the World Cup Qualifiers which means they are on the brink of missing out on the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1970. For a team that has the attacking talent Argentina do and who finished as Runners Up in the last World Cup Finals, it would be an immense disappointment to miss out.
Currently they are outside the top five in the South American Qualifying Group with 5th place offering a team the chance to have a Play Off against New Zealand for a place in Russia next summer. Anything less than a win would mean it is all over for Argentina and the only hope they have is to win in Ecuador on Tuesday.
The home team have already seen their World Cup hopes go up in smoke thanks to losing their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers and that has to be an encouragement for Argentina. However there is a reason Argentina are also outside the top five and that is because they have won just 2 of their last 10 Qualifiers and none of their last 5 away from home.
The draw doesn't look like it will be a good enough result for Argentina with the fixtures other teams have and they have to know it is anything but easy to win here. Ecuador have lost their last couple of home Qualifiers, but they would love to play spoiler to end this Group and Argentina have not had a lot of success in recent Qualifiers here.
Ecuador are unbeaten in 3 home Qualifiers against Argentina and they had won back to back home games against them before the 1-1 draw in the last set of Qualifiers. They will play with nothing to lose, but I also expect Argentina to show a little more composure in the final third which has surprisingly been the weakness of this squad.
I think this could be a rare Argentina game that has more excitement than the majority of their Qualifiers have had. The way Ecuador approach games should mean they give this a good go and Argentina will have to take risks themselves to win the game and ensure a top five finish.
Goals have been a problem for Argentina but they have Lionel Messi and I will look for this game to feature at least three goals shared out.
Trinidad and Tobago v United States Pick: For a little while it looked like the United States may miss out on an automatic place at the World Cup Finals but now they are just a point away from securing a spot in Russia next summer. Facing the weakest team in the Group, albeit away from home, should be good enough for the United States to earn a result that ensures they finish in 3rd place.
At the moment the United States are only 2 points clear of both Honduras and Panama, but the 4-0 win over Panama means they are at least 7 goals clear of the teams below them. That should mean a point is enough for the United States who have not won any of their 4 away World Cup Qualifiers in this final Group and the side have drawn 3 in a row on their travels.
It is hard to think the United States can't at least earn a point here against Trinidad and Tobago who have lost their last 6 Qualifiers overall and have been beaten in 3 of 4 home Qualifiers in the section. However none of those losses have come easily with only Costa Rica winning by more than a single goal margin courtesy of an injury time second goal.
That could happen here, but I am not anticipating Bruce Arians taking risks for the United States late in the game. They should be leading at that point, but once the United States go in front I am expecting them to try and shut down their opponents knowing a draw would still be good enough for them.
Trinidad and Tobago host the United States in a home Qualifier eleven months ago which ended in a goalless draw. They have also hosted the United States in 6 previous home Qualifiers and Trinidad and Tobago have avoided defeat in half of those games, while all 3 losses have come by a single goal margin.
The situation feels like one where backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap is the way to go. The United States would be happy for a draw, but I don't see them pushing to win by a clear margin once they get in front and playing in Trinidad and Tobago has been difficult for the likes of Mexico and Costa Rica as well as the United States in recent years.
We are getting more than goal start on the Asian Handicap which means only a big United States win will see this come in as a loss. I think this will be close and I will take the start.
MY PICKS: Denmark - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Slovenia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Austria - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Georgia + 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales-Republic of Ireland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
France Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Netherlands @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Portugal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brazil @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ecuador-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Trinidad and Tobago + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Thursday, 23 March 2017
World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (March 23-28)
The final international break of the season gives all domestic clubs the chance to take a breath, keep their fingers crossed that the players return without any injuries and then get ready for the big push over the final two months of the season.
That is when the big trophies are handed out and when other clubs learn their fate as to which Division they will be playing in next season, but first we have to get through the two week gap between games.
I've made my disdain for the internationals clear over the last couple of years and the 'excitement' of seeing the likes of England take on the likes of Lithuania can be hard to contain at times. There is going to be a new 'Nations Cup' in operation in the next eighteen months which is supposed to improve the quality of these breaks, but for now we have to make do with a number of mismatches as teams take another step towards the World Cup Finals in Russia which begin in fifteen months time.
There are not many rounds of Qualifiers left before we make up the next World Cup Finals though and so perhaps the intensity of games will pick up, especially those being played in the South American Qualifying Group. There are six nations who will feel they are good enough to be playing in Russia next year, but only four automatic spots and one Play Off spot for those teams.
With six games left, a big name nation looks set to miss out and so every game has taken on a new importance with two of those six games being played in the next few days. The European Qualifiers seem to be a little more 'boring' with the big nations taking on overmatched opponents, although there are at least a couple of really open looking Groups that will keep fans interested.
The World Cup Qualifiers will be played over the next few days and I will put up any picks from those games in this one thread. That will cover both rounds of games in the South American Qualifiers as well as all the European Qualifiers which are played from Friday through to Sunday.
Colombia v Bolivia Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for Colombia who can't afford to drop more points if they do want to finish in the top five of a tough section. That is the very least they would have expected when these Qualifiers began, but it does look like one of the bigger nations will miss the trip to Russia as the top six teams in South America all battle for their places.
Beating a poor travelling team like Bolivia has to be the least Colombia expect before a vital game in Ecuador next week.
Bolivia can't be underestimated having proven they can provide a shock result on their travels through previous editions of the Qualifiers having earned draws in Brazil and Argentina. They also drew in Chile earlier in this Group, even if that result was changed in the aftermath of an ineligible player being in the Bolivia line up.
Those results are the exception to the usual rule that Bolivia lose on their travels in these Qualifiers having fallen to a defeat in 28 of their last 32 away Qualifiers. They also have a poor record in Colombia having lost their last 6 games played in that country and I do think Colombia will be a little too good for them.
When Bolivia lose, they do tend to lose by a wide margin and I think Colombia can win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.
Paraguay v Ecuador Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for both Paraguay and Ecuador as the games begin to run out and the Group takes a more permanent shape. Anything other than a win for Paraguay will surely mean their run to the World Cup Finals in Russia is over, while a defeat for Ecuador will make them vulnerable to the three teams who are currently behind them.
However a win for Ecuador will keep the pressure on Chile, Argentina and Colombia below them and give the nation a huge step towards another World Cup Finals appearance. That should encourage them to get forward, but Ecuador have struggled away from home in recent World Cup Qualifiers and have conceded at least twice in 4 straight Qualifiers on their travels.
It should be something that inspires Paraguay who have won all 7 home Qualifiers against Ecuador in the past, but the fact that Ecuador have scored in their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers makes them dangerous too.
Both teams should have their chances to score and I would be surprised if either is satisfied with a draw which could produce an exciting game. The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here between these nations have produced at least three goals shared out and the last 3 overall between Paraguay and Ecuador have done the same.
The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think one of these teams pushes forward for the win and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a big price.
Argentina v Chile Pick: Both Argentina and Chile will be hoping they can do enough over their last six games to finish inside the top four of the World Cup Qualifying Group in South America and the winning team in this game will take a big step towards that goal. There is plenty of quality that both Argentina and Chile can call upon which should be good enough to automatically Qualify for the World Cup Finals, but both have had some struggles during this long slog.
Being at home should be an advantage for Argentina, but they have not always capitalised on that. They did, however, crush Colombia in their last World Cup Qualifier here and I think Argentina can back that up with a victory over Chile.
As well as Chile have played in recent Qualifiers to move above Argentina, they have not been as consistent away from home and their last two World Cup Qualifiers in Argentina have ended in routine losses.
The feeling is that something similar will happen here as Argentina exert their quality on a Chile team that might have a hampered and out of confidence Alexis Sanchez in the line up. Chile have lost heavily at Uruguay and Ecuador during this World Cup Qualifying campaign and I will back Argentina to cover the Asian Handicap in a win over them on Thursday.
Venezuela v Peru Pick: These two nations might have regularly become part of the also-rans in the South American World Cup Qualifiers, but this edition might have a different feel for Peru if they can win in Venezuela. That would take them onto the brink in cracking the top five places in a tough Qualifying Group, but Peru have struggled in Venezuela as they have lost their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here.
Those games have been exciting affairs for the neutrals and this one has every chance of going the same way.
Venezuela will attack at home and they do tend to score and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans. You have to think Peru will play with a little more caution as they know they have something to gain from this fixture, but this is a team who are not as strong on their travels and have been involved in some high-scoring games in recent away Qualifiers.
The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here may have been won by Venezuela, but all have seen at least three goals shared out. In fact 5 of the last 6 between Venezuela and Peru in World Cup Qualifiers have resulted in goals and this one feels it could go the same way with both teams likely to have their opportunities in front of goal.
It surprises me that the oddsmakers are offering odds against on this game featuring at least three goals and I will back that to happen.
Georgia v Serbia Pick: The oddsmakers have set Serbia as an odds on favourite to win in Georgia but it is hard to be that excited about those prices when you think they have won 3 of their last 11 away Qualifiers. The Serbian national team have won at Albania and Moldova in recent away Qualifiers, but Georgia will offer them plenty of problems in this one and I think it might be a close game.
The Serbia win in Albania came thanks to two injury time goals and they are now facing a Georgia team who don't usually collapse in home Qualifiers.
Both Poland and Germany won by at least two goals here in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but Georgia were narrowly beaten by the Republic of Ireland and have also suffered narrow home losses to the likes of Spain, Finland and Austria in recent years.
While I do think Serbia can match those teams and earn the win here, I don't think it will be an easy game for them and I do think Georgia will make life difficult. It has to be said when Serbia win away from home in these Qualifiers, they tend to do it by a wide margin, but that might not be the case here.
I am leaning towards Serbia earning a vital three points which can put them in a strong position in the Group, but I will back them to win by a one goal margin for a small interest.
Turkey v Finland Pick: The oddsmakers have set Turkey as a pretty strong favourite to win this Qualifier and you have to think home advantage is going to be telling against Finland. However I think it is going to be far from a straight forward game for Turkey who are under pressure to stay with the three teams above them in the Group with little room for error.
A slow start was overcome in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers but that had a lot to do with the additional places being offered in the Finals of that tournament. Those simply don't exist in the World Cup Qualifiers and the likes of Croatia, Iceland and Ukraine are all going to want to get to Russia having reached the Euro 2016 Finals.
Failing to win home games against Finland and matching what Iceland and Ukraine have already done would be a huge blow for Turkey and I do think they will do enough to earn the three points.
However it should be noted that Finland's 3 defeats in the Group have all come by a single goal margin and that includes in those visits to Iceland and Ukraine. Digging a little deeper into their recent away Qualifiers and you will see Finland have earned a draw in Spain and won in Greece, while also narrowly losing at Euro 2016 participants Northern Ireland and Hungary.
I have every faith Finland make this a tough day in the office for Turkey and I think the home team will have to be patient and wait for the chances to come their way. While I do think Turkey will just about edge the game, I will have a small interest on them winning this one by a single goal margin instead of looking for Turkey to win this while covering the Asian Handicap.
The oddsmakers have got the Asian Handicap at a good line and so backing Turkey to win by a single goal margin looks a decent angle for this Qualifier.
Croatia v Ukraine Pick: Over the last few years you will have regularly seen Croatia tipped as a dark horse to win a major international tournament, but they have yet to really fulfil their promise in the Finals since finishing 3rd in the 1998 World Cup. Last year was another disappointment as they went out with a whimper against Portugal in Euro 2016 despite showing so much promise in the Group.
They are the favourites to progress to the World Cup Finals in Russia next year, but one of the issues that I think Croatia need to resolve is finding a consistent goal scoring threat. They have a lot to like about their play as they reach the final third, but putting the finishing touch on chances is key to Croatia's chances of taking the next step.
It will be tested in this game against Ukraine who have played well in the Group but might be a position based on the fact that three of four Qualifiers have been played at home. The 2-2 draw in Turkey was a very good result and Ukraine have shown they are a tough team to beat in these away Qualifiers with some solid results over the last two campaigns.
Ukraine suffered a narrow loss in Spain, but they have avoided defeat in Slovakia and Slovenia and that toughness can keep them in this important game.
Ultimately I do think Croatia will be a little better on the day with home advantage important for them. It would be a surprise if it is a comfortable win though and I think backing Croatia to win by a single goal margin at minimum stakes might be the best call in this one.
Republic of Ireland v Wales Pick: As we reach the halfway stage of the European World Cup Qualifiers, this Group looks like one that might be a lot clearer by the end of this round of games. The Republic of Ireland have made a really positive start to the Group and a win on Friday night over Wales will put them in a very strong position to make it to Russia next summer.
The pressure does feel like it is on Wales to produce something having played three of their five home Qualifiers and returned just 6 points overall. While they have become harder to beat, teams have learnt that you don't want to give Wales the space to counter attack and that has made it more difficult for them to win games.
That was highlighted in the 1-1 home draw with Georgia as Wales struggled to put together the system that sees them dominate possession and break down opponents. It is likely to be a little more positive from the Republic of Ireland being at home, but Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have shown a pragmatic approach to games and the draw definitely suits them more than Wales.
Ireland have won 4 home Qualifiers in a row which will give them plenty of confidence, but this is not a team who will score a lot of goals and so opponents always have a chance against them. The injuries won't be used as an excuse for O'Neill or Keane, but it might make the draw even more appealing as it will keep the Republic of Ireland in a very strong position in the Group going into the second half of the Qualifiers.
Wales did play well away from home in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but I don't think there will be a lot between these teams. It is likely to be a tight game that might not feature a lot of goals either, but I think the draw could be the result that suits the home team and it may be the most likely outcome of this one.
Sweden v Belarus Pick: The retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the end of the Euro 2016 tournament means a new era for Sweden, but the players have responded in the right way by producing some solid performances in the World Cup Qualifiers. They are unlikely to catch France in this Group, but Sweden have every chance of finishing above the Netherlands and earning a Play Off spot.
That goal can only be achieved if they win Qualifiers like this one and I do think Sweden will be too good for Belarus when they host them on Saturday.
You can't completely discount Belarus as they have shown they are capable of producing a surprise result or two. They won in Slovakia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, which is an impressive result, but defeats to the Netherlands and Bulgaria in this Group won't inspire a lot of confidence.
The side have also 'only' managed a home draw with Luxembourg and Sweden tend to be very tough to beat at home. Sweden crushed Bulgaria 3-0 here and they have won 5 of their last 7 home Qualifiers with all but one of those wins coming by a two goal margin at the least.
At odds against I will look for Sweden to continue that run by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap in a home Qualifier win to keep the pressure on their two main rivals for the World Cup berths in this section.
Belgium v Greece Pick: This game could determine the outcome of this Group with Belgium and Greece leading the way in the section, although Bosnia-Herzegovina will still believe they can finish in the top two in the Group.
The points earned by Greece are off the back of a nice portion of their schedule with none of the wins they have earned unlikely to be matched by the other two big nations in the Group. Three of the next four games for Greece sees them take on Belgium twice and also visit Bosnia-Herzegovina and that might determine whether they are capable of making the top two in the section and a third straight World Cup Finals.
Belgium certainly look like they are going to win the Group and a win on Saturday will put them in firm control of the section. They have been playing very well in the Qualifiers as Roberto Martinez has found a way to get the attacking side of their game working to the point of scoring plenty of goals.
The home wins have been important to the foundation of their Qualifying campaigns over the last few years and Belgium have already hammered both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia at home while scoring at least four goals in each game. They should have most of the attacking play in this one and can beat Greece with something to spare.
Greece have a decent away record in recent Qualifiers, but they were beaten in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and I would expect Belgium to match that. With the goals in the squad, I will look for Belgium to win this one by a couple of goals.
Azerbaijan v Germany Pick: An impressive start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign has to have given the Azerbaijan fans some excitement that they might be able to gate crash the party being hosted by neighbours Russia next summer. It would be a real stunner if Azerbaijan were able to reach the World Cup Finals, but their win over Norway and draw in the Czech Republic will have given them a lot of confidence.
That would have been dented some by the 4-0 loss in Northern Ireland, but an upset of Germany on Sunday would reignite the Azerbaijan belief in achieving a miracle over the next several months.
That upset looks unlikely and I think Germany will prove to be too good in this one as they should be able to pull away for a comfortable win. All 4 Germany wins in the Qualifiers have been very comfortable and it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to contain a team that should have a more familiar look than the one that started the friendly with England last week.
Azerbaijan have to be respected in the fact they have challenged teams when they have visited Baku and they have not been beaten by more than two goals at home since 2011 in a Qualifier. Even the German wins here have both come by a two goal margin in their two visits during the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 Qualifiers.
However Germany have looked very strong in this set of Qualifiers and have won both away Qualifiers played by at least three goals each time. I will back them to reach that margin again in this one, but will back Germany on the Asian Handicap with the option of getting at least half the stakes returned in case of a two goal margin of victory.
England v Lithuania Pick: Most of the play is going to be made by England and they should prove to be too good for a Lithuania team they beat 4-0 in the last set of Qualifiers and who have suffered a 4-0 loss in Slovakia and a 3-0 loss in the Czech Republic in their last couple of away games.
This was a team that were also beaten 4-0 in Switzerland in the last set of Qualifiers and England have won 11 straight home Qualifiers with all of those coming by at least a two goal margin.
England have had a couple of 'poor' results in that time when you think they have 'only' beaten Estonia and Malta by the same 2-0 scoreline, but the majority of the weaker teams they have played have been brushed aside. They have won by at least three goals against the likes of San Marino (twice), Moldova, Montenegro, Lithuania and Scotland.
It should be England who have the chances and the possession to win this one at a canter and I will back them to record a comfortable win on Sunday and cover the Asian Handicap.
Northern Ireland v Norway Pick: A few years ago Northern Ireland would likely have been the underdog when facing Norway in a Qualifier, even in a game that was going to be played at Windsor Park. That is not the case at this time with Northern Ireland playing in the Euro 2016 Finals and looking like a team that has real ambitions of getting through to the World Cup Finals compared with Norway who are looking to earn experience they can use to good effect going forward.
It is a tough game to get a read on because Northern Ireland are not really a team you would associate with a lot of goals. That just means a Norway goal could be enough to avoid a defeat, but Northern Ireland have played well in home Qualifiers and I think they may just do enough to win this one.
Their home form has been strong in the Qualifiers, while Norway have been really poor in their most recent away Qualifiers. The 1-0 loss to Azerbaijan was a terrible result for Norway and it is going to be as tough in this environment where Northern Ireland have thrived.
Northern Ireland do have a terrible home record against Norway down the years, but the teams look to be in much different places now. While Northern Ireland are now a team that does look to make the major tournament Finals, Norway are just struggling to put wins on the board consistently.
It won't be easy for Northern Ireland but I do think they can earn the three points by a narrow margin in this one. I will simply look for the home team to win this one and keep the pressure on those nations chasing 2nd place in the Group.
Bolivia v Argentina Pick: This is a very important game for Argentina in their bid to make it to the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer. A tight Group means you can't really afford to drop points in a bid to finish in the top four especially not with games in Uruguay and Ecuador to come later in the Group for Argentina.
Visiting La Paz has been anything but routine for Argentina and it is hard to back them at odds on to win here this time. The side have only won 2 of their 6 away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and playing in the altitude of Bolivia has proven to be an equaliser for the home team who clearly don't have the talent that other South American sides can call upon.
Bolivia have been able to trouble teams when they have visited here and the fact they have 2 wins to Argentina's 1 over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers in La Paz indicates this will be a tough game for the away team.
However this is quite a poor Bolivia team who have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers. On the other hand they had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home Qualifiers before the 1-0 win over Paraguay and I do think Bolivia can cause some problems for an Argentina team that have struggled for goals.
Then again, Argentina had scored at least twice in 3 consecutive away World Cup Qualifiers before the 3-0 loss in Brazil, a result which means they have conceded at least twice in 3 consecutive away Qualifiers including in Venezuela and Peru.
This does feel like a game that both teams will have their chances and I am expecting both teams to score. The 1-1 is a clear scoreline that could be a player, but I think there might be enough opportunities for more and backing at least three goals to be shared out at close to odds against is a tempting enough price.
The last time these teams played here it did end 1-1, but the previous 4 World Cup Qualifiers between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz had produced at least three goals each time.
Ecuador v Colombia Pick: One of the harder teams to get a read on in the South American Qualifying Group has to be Colombia who have shown they are capable of some big results when fully focused. However they have also shown they can struggle under the weight of expectation for a nation that loves their football and the inconsistent results makes them dangerous.
This is a tough away game for Colombia as Ecuador have used their home form as a foundation for success in the Group. Ecuador have scored plenty of goals at home in the World Cup Qualifiers and have won half of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers against Colombia.
Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina have been the only teams to beat Colombia at home during the World Cup Qualifiers, but Ecuador have played well at home and can match those teams.
Colombia have only once scored more than one goal in their away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and that gives Ecuador a real chance of winning this one. This is an Ecuador team who have scored at least twice in every home game in the Qualifiers except for the when they played Group leaders Brazil and I think the home advantage could be key in a narrow win for Ecuador which takes them back into the top four in this Group.
Peru v Uruguay Pick: Nothing has been decided in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group outside of Bolivia and Venezuela being out of contention. The Peru fightback in Venezuela last week has kept them within touching distance of a place in the World Cup Finals next summer, but this is almost a must win game.
While not quite as desperate for the visitors, Uruguay have suffered heavy losses in back to back World Cup Qualifiers which has seen the gap close between them and the nations below them. Uruguay remain 2nd in the Group, but they are just 3 points clear of Chile in 6th place and they need to bounce back immediately, especially as the next two Qualifiers are against Argentina and Paraguay.
This is a tough game for Uruguay considering they have won none of their last 5 away Qualifiers and have lost 3 of those games. They have conceded at least twice in 4 of the games and will be tested by a Peru team who had scored in every home Qualifier, at least twice in 4 of 5, before the 0-2 defeat to Brazil.
Both teams will feel they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one and the onus is on Peru to keep pushing forward and try to win the game with the three points imperative for their World Cup hopes. 4 of the 6 Peru home Qualifiers and Uruguay away Qualifiers have produced at least three goals and there looks like a real potential for this game to go the same way.
The last World Cup Qualifier between Peru and Uruguay here did end with three goals shared out and I am going to back goals in this World Cup Qualifier.
MY PICKS: Colombia - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venezuela-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serbia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Turkey to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Wales Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sweden - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Northern Ireland @ 2.45 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bolivia-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 2.15 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Peru-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
That is when the big trophies are handed out and when other clubs learn their fate as to which Division they will be playing in next season, but first we have to get through the two week gap between games.
I've made my disdain for the internationals clear over the last couple of years and the 'excitement' of seeing the likes of England take on the likes of Lithuania can be hard to contain at times. There is going to be a new 'Nations Cup' in operation in the next eighteen months which is supposed to improve the quality of these breaks, but for now we have to make do with a number of mismatches as teams take another step towards the World Cup Finals in Russia which begin in fifteen months time.
There are not many rounds of Qualifiers left before we make up the next World Cup Finals though and so perhaps the intensity of games will pick up, especially those being played in the South American Qualifying Group. There are six nations who will feel they are good enough to be playing in Russia next year, but only four automatic spots and one Play Off spot for those teams.
With six games left, a big name nation looks set to miss out and so every game has taken on a new importance with two of those six games being played in the next few days. The European Qualifiers seem to be a little more 'boring' with the big nations taking on overmatched opponents, although there are at least a couple of really open looking Groups that will keep fans interested.
The World Cup Qualifiers will be played over the next few days and I will put up any picks from those games in this one thread. That will cover both rounds of games in the South American Qualifiers as well as all the European Qualifiers which are played from Friday through to Sunday.
Colombia v Bolivia Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for Colombia who can't afford to drop more points if they do want to finish in the top five of a tough section. That is the very least they would have expected when these Qualifiers began, but it does look like one of the bigger nations will miss the trip to Russia as the top six teams in South America all battle for their places.
Beating a poor travelling team like Bolivia has to be the least Colombia expect before a vital game in Ecuador next week.
Bolivia can't be underestimated having proven they can provide a shock result on their travels through previous editions of the Qualifiers having earned draws in Brazil and Argentina. They also drew in Chile earlier in this Group, even if that result was changed in the aftermath of an ineligible player being in the Bolivia line up.
Those results are the exception to the usual rule that Bolivia lose on their travels in these Qualifiers having fallen to a defeat in 28 of their last 32 away Qualifiers. They also have a poor record in Colombia having lost their last 6 games played in that country and I do think Colombia will be a little too good for them.
When Bolivia lose, they do tend to lose by a wide margin and I think Colombia can win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.
Paraguay v Ecuador Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for both Paraguay and Ecuador as the games begin to run out and the Group takes a more permanent shape. Anything other than a win for Paraguay will surely mean their run to the World Cup Finals in Russia is over, while a defeat for Ecuador will make them vulnerable to the three teams who are currently behind them.
However a win for Ecuador will keep the pressure on Chile, Argentina and Colombia below them and give the nation a huge step towards another World Cup Finals appearance. That should encourage them to get forward, but Ecuador have struggled away from home in recent World Cup Qualifiers and have conceded at least twice in 4 straight Qualifiers on their travels.
It should be something that inspires Paraguay who have won all 7 home Qualifiers against Ecuador in the past, but the fact that Ecuador have scored in their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers makes them dangerous too.
Both teams should have their chances to score and I would be surprised if either is satisfied with a draw which could produce an exciting game. The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here between these nations have produced at least three goals shared out and the last 3 overall between Paraguay and Ecuador have done the same.
The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think one of these teams pushes forward for the win and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a big price.
Argentina v Chile Pick: Both Argentina and Chile will be hoping they can do enough over their last six games to finish inside the top four of the World Cup Qualifying Group in South America and the winning team in this game will take a big step towards that goal. There is plenty of quality that both Argentina and Chile can call upon which should be good enough to automatically Qualify for the World Cup Finals, but both have had some struggles during this long slog.
Being at home should be an advantage for Argentina, but they have not always capitalised on that. They did, however, crush Colombia in their last World Cup Qualifier here and I think Argentina can back that up with a victory over Chile.
As well as Chile have played in recent Qualifiers to move above Argentina, they have not been as consistent away from home and their last two World Cup Qualifiers in Argentina have ended in routine losses.
The feeling is that something similar will happen here as Argentina exert their quality on a Chile team that might have a hampered and out of confidence Alexis Sanchez in the line up. Chile have lost heavily at Uruguay and Ecuador during this World Cup Qualifying campaign and I will back Argentina to cover the Asian Handicap in a win over them on Thursday.
Venezuela v Peru Pick: These two nations might have regularly become part of the also-rans in the South American World Cup Qualifiers, but this edition might have a different feel for Peru if they can win in Venezuela. That would take them onto the brink in cracking the top five places in a tough Qualifying Group, but Peru have struggled in Venezuela as they have lost their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here.
Those games have been exciting affairs for the neutrals and this one has every chance of going the same way.
Venezuela will attack at home and they do tend to score and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans. You have to think Peru will play with a little more caution as they know they have something to gain from this fixture, but this is a team who are not as strong on their travels and have been involved in some high-scoring games in recent away Qualifiers.
The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here may have been won by Venezuela, but all have seen at least three goals shared out. In fact 5 of the last 6 between Venezuela and Peru in World Cup Qualifiers have resulted in goals and this one feels it could go the same way with both teams likely to have their opportunities in front of goal.
It surprises me that the oddsmakers are offering odds against on this game featuring at least three goals and I will back that to happen.
Georgia v Serbia Pick: The oddsmakers have set Serbia as an odds on favourite to win in Georgia but it is hard to be that excited about those prices when you think they have won 3 of their last 11 away Qualifiers. The Serbian national team have won at Albania and Moldova in recent away Qualifiers, but Georgia will offer them plenty of problems in this one and I think it might be a close game.
The Serbia win in Albania came thanks to two injury time goals and they are now facing a Georgia team who don't usually collapse in home Qualifiers.
Both Poland and Germany won by at least two goals here in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but Georgia were narrowly beaten by the Republic of Ireland and have also suffered narrow home losses to the likes of Spain, Finland and Austria in recent years.
While I do think Serbia can match those teams and earn the win here, I don't think it will be an easy game for them and I do think Georgia will make life difficult. It has to be said when Serbia win away from home in these Qualifiers, they tend to do it by a wide margin, but that might not be the case here.
I am leaning towards Serbia earning a vital three points which can put them in a strong position in the Group, but I will back them to win by a one goal margin for a small interest.
Turkey v Finland Pick: The oddsmakers have set Turkey as a pretty strong favourite to win this Qualifier and you have to think home advantage is going to be telling against Finland. However I think it is going to be far from a straight forward game for Turkey who are under pressure to stay with the three teams above them in the Group with little room for error.
A slow start was overcome in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers but that had a lot to do with the additional places being offered in the Finals of that tournament. Those simply don't exist in the World Cup Qualifiers and the likes of Croatia, Iceland and Ukraine are all going to want to get to Russia having reached the Euro 2016 Finals.
Failing to win home games against Finland and matching what Iceland and Ukraine have already done would be a huge blow for Turkey and I do think they will do enough to earn the three points.
However it should be noted that Finland's 3 defeats in the Group have all come by a single goal margin and that includes in those visits to Iceland and Ukraine. Digging a little deeper into their recent away Qualifiers and you will see Finland have earned a draw in Spain and won in Greece, while also narrowly losing at Euro 2016 participants Northern Ireland and Hungary.
I have every faith Finland make this a tough day in the office for Turkey and I think the home team will have to be patient and wait for the chances to come their way. While I do think Turkey will just about edge the game, I will have a small interest on them winning this one by a single goal margin instead of looking for Turkey to win this while covering the Asian Handicap.
The oddsmakers have got the Asian Handicap at a good line and so backing Turkey to win by a single goal margin looks a decent angle for this Qualifier.
Croatia v Ukraine Pick: Over the last few years you will have regularly seen Croatia tipped as a dark horse to win a major international tournament, but they have yet to really fulfil their promise in the Finals since finishing 3rd in the 1998 World Cup. Last year was another disappointment as they went out with a whimper against Portugal in Euro 2016 despite showing so much promise in the Group.
They are the favourites to progress to the World Cup Finals in Russia next year, but one of the issues that I think Croatia need to resolve is finding a consistent goal scoring threat. They have a lot to like about their play as they reach the final third, but putting the finishing touch on chances is key to Croatia's chances of taking the next step.
It will be tested in this game against Ukraine who have played well in the Group but might be a position based on the fact that three of four Qualifiers have been played at home. The 2-2 draw in Turkey was a very good result and Ukraine have shown they are a tough team to beat in these away Qualifiers with some solid results over the last two campaigns.
Ukraine suffered a narrow loss in Spain, but they have avoided defeat in Slovakia and Slovenia and that toughness can keep them in this important game.
Ultimately I do think Croatia will be a little better on the day with home advantage important for them. It would be a surprise if it is a comfortable win though and I think backing Croatia to win by a single goal margin at minimum stakes might be the best call in this one.
Republic of Ireland v Wales Pick: As we reach the halfway stage of the European World Cup Qualifiers, this Group looks like one that might be a lot clearer by the end of this round of games. The Republic of Ireland have made a really positive start to the Group and a win on Friday night over Wales will put them in a very strong position to make it to Russia next summer.
The pressure does feel like it is on Wales to produce something having played three of their five home Qualifiers and returned just 6 points overall. While they have become harder to beat, teams have learnt that you don't want to give Wales the space to counter attack and that has made it more difficult for them to win games.
That was highlighted in the 1-1 home draw with Georgia as Wales struggled to put together the system that sees them dominate possession and break down opponents. It is likely to be a little more positive from the Republic of Ireland being at home, but Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have shown a pragmatic approach to games and the draw definitely suits them more than Wales.
Ireland have won 4 home Qualifiers in a row which will give them plenty of confidence, but this is not a team who will score a lot of goals and so opponents always have a chance against them. The injuries won't be used as an excuse for O'Neill or Keane, but it might make the draw even more appealing as it will keep the Republic of Ireland in a very strong position in the Group going into the second half of the Qualifiers.
Wales did play well away from home in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but I don't think there will be a lot between these teams. It is likely to be a tight game that might not feature a lot of goals either, but I think the draw could be the result that suits the home team and it may be the most likely outcome of this one.
Sweden v Belarus Pick: The retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the end of the Euro 2016 tournament means a new era for Sweden, but the players have responded in the right way by producing some solid performances in the World Cup Qualifiers. They are unlikely to catch France in this Group, but Sweden have every chance of finishing above the Netherlands and earning a Play Off spot.
That goal can only be achieved if they win Qualifiers like this one and I do think Sweden will be too good for Belarus when they host them on Saturday.
You can't completely discount Belarus as they have shown they are capable of producing a surprise result or two. They won in Slovakia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, which is an impressive result, but defeats to the Netherlands and Bulgaria in this Group won't inspire a lot of confidence.
The side have also 'only' managed a home draw with Luxembourg and Sweden tend to be very tough to beat at home. Sweden crushed Bulgaria 3-0 here and they have won 5 of their last 7 home Qualifiers with all but one of those wins coming by a two goal margin at the least.
At odds against I will look for Sweden to continue that run by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap in a home Qualifier win to keep the pressure on their two main rivals for the World Cup berths in this section.
Belgium v Greece Pick: This game could determine the outcome of this Group with Belgium and Greece leading the way in the section, although Bosnia-Herzegovina will still believe they can finish in the top two in the Group.
The points earned by Greece are off the back of a nice portion of their schedule with none of the wins they have earned unlikely to be matched by the other two big nations in the Group. Three of the next four games for Greece sees them take on Belgium twice and also visit Bosnia-Herzegovina and that might determine whether they are capable of making the top two in the section and a third straight World Cup Finals.
Belgium certainly look like they are going to win the Group and a win on Saturday will put them in firm control of the section. They have been playing very well in the Qualifiers as Roberto Martinez has found a way to get the attacking side of their game working to the point of scoring plenty of goals.
The home wins have been important to the foundation of their Qualifying campaigns over the last few years and Belgium have already hammered both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia at home while scoring at least four goals in each game. They should have most of the attacking play in this one and can beat Greece with something to spare.
Greece have a decent away record in recent Qualifiers, but they were beaten in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and I would expect Belgium to match that. With the goals in the squad, I will look for Belgium to win this one by a couple of goals.
Azerbaijan v Germany Pick: An impressive start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign has to have given the Azerbaijan fans some excitement that they might be able to gate crash the party being hosted by neighbours Russia next summer. It would be a real stunner if Azerbaijan were able to reach the World Cup Finals, but their win over Norway and draw in the Czech Republic will have given them a lot of confidence.
That would have been dented some by the 4-0 loss in Northern Ireland, but an upset of Germany on Sunday would reignite the Azerbaijan belief in achieving a miracle over the next several months.
That upset looks unlikely and I think Germany will prove to be too good in this one as they should be able to pull away for a comfortable win. All 4 Germany wins in the Qualifiers have been very comfortable and it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to contain a team that should have a more familiar look than the one that started the friendly with England last week.
Azerbaijan have to be respected in the fact they have challenged teams when they have visited Baku and they have not been beaten by more than two goals at home since 2011 in a Qualifier. Even the German wins here have both come by a two goal margin in their two visits during the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 Qualifiers.
However Germany have looked very strong in this set of Qualifiers and have won both away Qualifiers played by at least three goals each time. I will back them to reach that margin again in this one, but will back Germany on the Asian Handicap with the option of getting at least half the stakes returned in case of a two goal margin of victory.
England v Lithuania Pick: Most of the play is going to be made by England and they should prove to be too good for a Lithuania team they beat 4-0 in the last set of Qualifiers and who have suffered a 4-0 loss in Slovakia and a 3-0 loss in the Czech Republic in their last couple of away games.
This was a team that were also beaten 4-0 in Switzerland in the last set of Qualifiers and England have won 11 straight home Qualifiers with all of those coming by at least a two goal margin.
England have had a couple of 'poor' results in that time when you think they have 'only' beaten Estonia and Malta by the same 2-0 scoreline, but the majority of the weaker teams they have played have been brushed aside. They have won by at least three goals against the likes of San Marino (twice), Moldova, Montenegro, Lithuania and Scotland.
It should be England who have the chances and the possession to win this one at a canter and I will back them to record a comfortable win on Sunday and cover the Asian Handicap.
Northern Ireland v Norway Pick: A few years ago Northern Ireland would likely have been the underdog when facing Norway in a Qualifier, even in a game that was going to be played at Windsor Park. That is not the case at this time with Northern Ireland playing in the Euro 2016 Finals and looking like a team that has real ambitions of getting through to the World Cup Finals compared with Norway who are looking to earn experience they can use to good effect going forward.
It is a tough game to get a read on because Northern Ireland are not really a team you would associate with a lot of goals. That just means a Norway goal could be enough to avoid a defeat, but Northern Ireland have played well in home Qualifiers and I think they may just do enough to win this one.
Their home form has been strong in the Qualifiers, while Norway have been really poor in their most recent away Qualifiers. The 1-0 loss to Azerbaijan was a terrible result for Norway and it is going to be as tough in this environment where Northern Ireland have thrived.
Northern Ireland do have a terrible home record against Norway down the years, but the teams look to be in much different places now. While Northern Ireland are now a team that does look to make the major tournament Finals, Norway are just struggling to put wins on the board consistently.
It won't be easy for Northern Ireland but I do think they can earn the three points by a narrow margin in this one. I will simply look for the home team to win this one and keep the pressure on those nations chasing 2nd place in the Group.
Bolivia v Argentina Pick: This is a very important game for Argentina in their bid to make it to the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer. A tight Group means you can't really afford to drop points in a bid to finish in the top four especially not with games in Uruguay and Ecuador to come later in the Group for Argentina.
Visiting La Paz has been anything but routine for Argentina and it is hard to back them at odds on to win here this time. The side have only won 2 of their 6 away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and playing in the altitude of Bolivia has proven to be an equaliser for the home team who clearly don't have the talent that other South American sides can call upon.
Bolivia have been able to trouble teams when they have visited here and the fact they have 2 wins to Argentina's 1 over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers in La Paz indicates this will be a tough game for the away team.
However this is quite a poor Bolivia team who have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers. On the other hand they had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home Qualifiers before the 1-0 win over Paraguay and I do think Bolivia can cause some problems for an Argentina team that have struggled for goals.
Then again, Argentina had scored at least twice in 3 consecutive away World Cup Qualifiers before the 3-0 loss in Brazil, a result which means they have conceded at least twice in 3 consecutive away Qualifiers including in Venezuela and Peru.
This does feel like a game that both teams will have their chances and I am expecting both teams to score. The 1-1 is a clear scoreline that could be a player, but I think there might be enough opportunities for more and backing at least three goals to be shared out at close to odds against is a tempting enough price.
The last time these teams played here it did end 1-1, but the previous 4 World Cup Qualifiers between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz had produced at least three goals each time.
Ecuador v Colombia Pick: One of the harder teams to get a read on in the South American Qualifying Group has to be Colombia who have shown they are capable of some big results when fully focused. However they have also shown they can struggle under the weight of expectation for a nation that loves their football and the inconsistent results makes them dangerous.
This is a tough away game for Colombia as Ecuador have used their home form as a foundation for success in the Group. Ecuador have scored plenty of goals at home in the World Cup Qualifiers and have won half of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers against Colombia.
Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina have been the only teams to beat Colombia at home during the World Cup Qualifiers, but Ecuador have played well at home and can match those teams.
Colombia have only once scored more than one goal in their away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and that gives Ecuador a real chance of winning this one. This is an Ecuador team who have scored at least twice in every home game in the Qualifiers except for the when they played Group leaders Brazil and I think the home advantage could be key in a narrow win for Ecuador which takes them back into the top four in this Group.
Peru v Uruguay Pick: Nothing has been decided in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group outside of Bolivia and Venezuela being out of contention. The Peru fightback in Venezuela last week has kept them within touching distance of a place in the World Cup Finals next summer, but this is almost a must win game.
While not quite as desperate for the visitors, Uruguay have suffered heavy losses in back to back World Cup Qualifiers which has seen the gap close between them and the nations below them. Uruguay remain 2nd in the Group, but they are just 3 points clear of Chile in 6th place and they need to bounce back immediately, especially as the next two Qualifiers are against Argentina and Paraguay.
This is a tough game for Uruguay considering they have won none of their last 5 away Qualifiers and have lost 3 of those games. They have conceded at least twice in 4 of the games and will be tested by a Peru team who had scored in every home Qualifier, at least twice in 4 of 5, before the 0-2 defeat to Brazil.
Both teams will feel they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one and the onus is on Peru to keep pushing forward and try to win the game with the three points imperative for their World Cup hopes. 4 of the 6 Peru home Qualifiers and Uruguay away Qualifiers have produced at least three goals and there looks like a real potential for this game to go the same way.
The last World Cup Qualifier between Peru and Uruguay here did end with three goals shared out and I am going to back goals in this World Cup Qualifier.
MY PICKS: Colombia - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venezuela-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serbia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Turkey to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Wales Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sweden - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Northern Ireland @ 2.45 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bolivia-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 2.15 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Peru-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
March Update: 31-32-3, + 1.50 Units (129 Units Staked, + 1.16% Yield)
February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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