NFL Week 5 Picks 2021 (October 7-11)

Week 5 of the NFL is set to begin on Thursday Night Football with a huge NFC West Divisional game and I have a selection from that game which can be read below.

I will add to this thread before Sunday when the majority of the Week 5 games are to be played, including the first game in London for two years. Three winning weeks have gotten the 2021 season trending in a positive direction for the NFL Picks and I am looking to keep that going beginning with the Los Angeles Rams trip to the Seattle Seahawks.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC West looked like a Division that could provide multiple PlayOff teams at the end of this season, but some of the recent results for the two teams without a winning record have knocked them down a couple of notches. At least the Seattle Seahawks (2-2) got back to winning ways after an awful first half in Week 4 and that snapped a two game losing run ahead of a big Thursday Night Football game.

They are facing a team off a loss when the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) come to town after a blowout defeat to the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals. You have to wonder how much of that was down to a lack of focus after a win over the Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, but the Rams need to show they can pick themselves up by bouncing back on the short week.

You have to feel the match up is a good one for them from an Offensive point of view and Matthew Stafford has been in fine form at Quarter Back since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Lions. He has thrown 11 Touchdown passes with just 2 Interceptions and Matthew Stafford is facing a Seattle Secondary which is so far removed from the days of the 'Legion of Boom'.

Massive amounts of yards have been given up through the air and Stafford has the Receiving corps to fully expose the issues Seattle have in the Secondary. Even Jamal Adams is banged up and Seattle are going to have trouble getting to the Quarter Back who has been well protected by the Los Angeles Offensive Line, which should mean Matthew Stafford is able to have a very strong game.

The Quarter Back will only be helped by the fact that the Seahawks Defensive Line has struggled to contain teams on the ground too so Matthew Stafford can lean on Darrell Henderson to keep the team in third and manageable spots. Opening up the play-action is only music to the ears of Head Coach Sean McVay and I do think the Los Angeles Rams are going to have considerable Offensive success throughout this game.

We didn't really see Russell Wilson at his very best last week in the road win at the San Francisco 49ers, but turnovers helped the Seahawks and their Quarter Back made enough plays to ensure they avoided losing for a third game in succession. He may have things slightly easier in this one with some of the holes that have been evident on the Los Angeles Rams Defensive unit, but much is going to depend on the Seattle Offensive Line.

They have not been able to protect Russell Wilson as they would have liked, but the Offensive Line has paved the way for some strong gains on the ground. Last week the Los Angeles Rams were hammered on the ground by the Arizona Cardinals and even the potential absence of Chris Carson should not limit Seattle's ability to do the same here.

However, they are going to be facing a very productive Los Angeles pass rush and any time the Seahawks are behind the chains, the feeling is that the Rams are going to be all over Russell Wilson who has not been able to scramble away from pressure previously. Last week Russell Wilson was being destroyed by the San Francisco pass rush in the first half and the likes of Aaron Donald are likely going to create havoc in the backfield in this one.

It will also mean Wilson is being forced to throw into his dangerous Secondary under pressure and that could see the Rams stall drives and perhaps even create turnovers to give their powerful Offensive unit the opportunity to win the game.

The Los Angeles Rams have a decent record against the spread off a defeat under Sean McVay and they have won six of the last eight games between these Divisional rivals. That includes a win here in the PlayOffs last season and with an improved Quarter Back, I do think the Rams can win as the road favourite.

Los Angeles are 12-3-1 in their last sixteen against the spread when losing by ten plus points at home, while they are also 10-4-1 against the spread in their last fifteen against Divisional rivals. The Seahawks are 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven following a win and they are also 3-7 against the spread in their last ten against NFC West opponents, spreads that look to back up the Rams being the right side here.

Some of that enthusiasm for the selection has to be countered by noting a couple of strong trends in favour of the Seattle Seahawks- they have won their last nine on Thursday Night Football and Pete Carroll has to be respected for the way he prepares his team on the short week. Russell Wilson also has a 6-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog.

However, I think the Los Angeles Rams will have the time on the Offensive side of the ball that Seattle won't be able to offer Russell Wilson. At some point that is likely to make the difference and I think Matthew Stafford can lead the Rams to an important road win to avoid falling into a 0-2 Divisional hole.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: It has been a very difficult week for both of these AFC South teams and the Week 5 game between them is a very important one to try and turn some of the negative headlines into positive ones.

The feeling is that the Tennessee Titans (2-2) will be clearer in what they need to do as they look to bounce back from an Overtime defeat to the previously winless New York Jets. That could be a bad defeat in the weeks ahead as the Titans look to push back towards the PlayOffs, but they are still on top of a weak Division and are favoured to move to 2-0 within the Division on Sunday.

It has been a much more difficult week for the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) and not only for the fact they have lost their last nineteen NFL games. Head Coach Urban Meyer had a video going viral which has embarrassed his family and the organisation and the rumours are that he will not be in charge of Jacksonville for much longer.

The players have continued to offer their support to Meyer, but the Head Coach looks out of his depth in the pro ranks and it is unclear whether he has actually lost the respect of the dressing room. While College players may still put in a full shift, pro players can be known for 'downing tools' and even the additional time between the Week 4 game at the Cincinnati Bengals and this one may not be enough time to douse the flames in this part of Florida.

A trip to London is coming up for the Jaguars to further cloud the focus for this game, even against a Divisional rival, and the only real hope for the underdog is that they can keep this close on the spread by exposing what has been a vulnerable Tennessee Defensive unit. However, they will need to rely on Trevor Lawrence's arm to do so and the rookie Quarter Back is going through a difficult time with the losses mounting up.

It is not something that Lawrence has ever had to deal with before and he is not likely to be given a lot of support on the ground with the Tennessee Defensive Line proving to be pretty stout against the run. In saying that, Zach Wilson showed there are holes to exploit in the Secondary and Trevor Lawrence has shown enough to believe he will be able to do the same here against a banged up Tennessee team.

That is the main reason they will have a chance of the cover even if they are likely to lose again, but you do have to wonder if Jacksonville have been prepared enough to do that.

The Titans have had some issues Offensively which may actually be the biggest question when it comes to any potential cover for them in Week 5. A banged up Receiving corps may have a couple of big name players returning this week and that will be important for Ryan Tannehill who was able to lead the Titans down the field in the defeat to the New York Jets, but had to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns early in the game.

It came back to bite the Titans in the defeat, but AJ Brown looks like he is trending towards a return and the Offensive Line should also be close to full strength. You have to credit the Jacksonville Jaguars for some improvements when it comes to clamping down on the run, but stopping Derrick Henry has been too much for them in recent meetings and I expect the big time Running Back to put the Titans in a position to be in front of the chains more often than not.

Ryan Tannehill may then have a touch more time to make his throws down the field having seen the Offensive Line struggle in pass protection. In short distance Downs, Tannehill could employ play-action to move the ball through the air, while there is not guarantee that the Jacksonville pass rush is good enough to exploit issues on the Tennessee Line anyway.

The Titans have a 6-2 record against the spread in the last eight between these Divisional rivals and they beat the Jaguars by 21 points on the road in 2020.

That is the only cover the Titans have had as a road favourite in their last seven in that spot, but this does feel like a good week to be rolling into Jacksonville to repeat that win and cover. With some key players back, Tennessee should have too much and they can bounce back from a bad loss to keep control of the AFC South with a strong win in this part of Florida.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers Pick: One of the more surprising teams after the first month of the NFL season have to be the Carolina Panthers (3-1) who have the same record as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the top of the NFC South. However, the Panthers have to bounce back from their first defeat of the 2021 season when they were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys, but they will be returning home to take on another NFC East team this week.

This time they are facing the Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) who have dropped a third game in a row and who have given up 40 plus points for a second game in a row. This was always going to be a work in progress for the Eagles in a first season under a new Head Coach and they are not being helped by injury on both sides of the ball.

Jalen Hurts has yet to really convince as the starting Quarter Back for the Eagles and, despite some positives, this is a big season for him to show he can lead the team going forward. He had some big time plays against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, but the Carolina Panthers Defensive unit have been playing at a higher level than the Chiefs and it is going to be a big challenge for Hurts and the Eagles Offensive unit to keep the ball moving with any kind of consistency.

It does not help that the Eagles are playing behind a banged up Offensive Line which can have some difficulty in pass protection. Even with a mobile Quarter Back, the Eagles have not really protected Jalen Hurts as they would have liked and they will be without a couple of key Linemen this week too.

Handing the ball to Miles Sanders may be the best approach for the Eagles as the Offensive Line have been capable of opening holes for him, while the Panthers Defensive Line is much happier pinning their ears back to get after the Quarter Back than clamping down on the run. They have been able to hold teams to under 100 yards on average this season, but Carolina are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and while this is close it could be a good way for the Eagles to ease the pass rush and give their Quarter Back every chance to have some success.

That may work while they are in the game, but the Eagles have given up some big points in the last couple of weeks and have had to rely on Jalen Hurts throwing the ball. His personal numbers are quite good, but Hurts is going to be attacking a Carolina Secondary that has been bolstered by Stephon Gilmore and who had barely allowed over 150 passing yards on average for the season before his arrival.

It will be a challenge for the Eagles to move the ball consistently and so the pressure is on the Defensive unit to step up and make up for two poor performances. Injuries are not helping the Eagles though and even a Carolina Offensive unit without Christian McCaffrey will feel they can have success in this one.

Sam Darnold looks rejuvenated having arrived in a trade from the New York Jets, while Chuba Hubbard has at least been able to give the Panthers some running game without McCaffrey in the backfield. The Quarter Back is leading the League with rushing Touchdowns and the Panthers will likely have noted the issues the Eagles Defensive Line have had stopping the run ever since Brandon Graham was lost for the season.

Hammering Philadelphia on the ground will keep Sam Darnold in front of the chains and mean the Quarter Back does not have to push himself to make plays when throwing the ball. It will also mean having a touch more time to throw the ball against the Eagles Secondary which has allowed some big plays and Sam Darnold will likely be able to look after the ball considering the struggles Philadelphia have had to turn it over.

This does look a good spot for the Carolina Panthers to bounce back from the loss in Week 4 and they may also be playing an Eagles team that could be distracted with this being the meat in the last two Super Bowl Winning team sandwich. A Thursday Night Football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is likely to be a distraction, despite the three losses in a row, and I think the Carolina Panthers are perhaps still a little underestimated here.

The Panthers are 10-1-1 against the spread in their last twelve home games when playing off a straight up and against the spread defeat to a non-Division opponent. They have already covered as a home favourite against the New York Jets this season and have beaten the New Orleans Saints here and I do think they can expose the Philadelphia Defensive vulnerabilities.

Add in the fact that the Eagles are 1-11 against the spread in their last twelve coming in off a double digit defeat at home and are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine as a Conference underdog following a double digit defeat, and you can see the trends may favour the home team here too.

With the big Thursday Night Football game coming up, Philadelphia may come up short here.

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There are not going to be too many times I want to go up against Aaron Rodgers, but him and the Green Bay Packers (3-1) look a vulnerable favourite in Week 5 despite the fact they have won three in a row. Wins over the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers have got the Packers back on track after the awful Week 1 defeat to the New Orleans Saints, but they have a Divisional game on deck and are facing a surprising opponent.

Joe Burrow showed he could be the franchise Quarter Back for the Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) before injury struck in 2020 in his rookie season and the big question was how healthy he would be coming into the 2021 season. He looks to have answered most of those, although Burrow will be the first to admit that the much improved Cincinnati Defensive unit has been just as important to their start which has taken them to the top of the impressive AFC North.

Bigger tests begin this week against the Green Bay Packers, but this might be an ideal time for the Bengals to host them. A myriad of injuries on both sides of the ball have hurt the Packers and they could be vulnerable to the Cincinnati passing game in this one.

Joe Mixon is likely going to have to sit out for the Cincinnati Bengals, which is a blow, but Joe Burrow can pick up the slack with the Green Bay Packers likely going in without their top Corner Back. Jaire Alexander may be out for multiple weeks and others are banged up on this side of the ball which should be music to the ears of the Cincinnati Offensive players.

Having additional preparation time has not always worked in favour of the Bengals, but it should mean they are healthier than they were in the Week 4 victory over the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. That can't be dismissed and the feeling is that the Bengals can find the balance they will need Offensively, even without Mixon in the backfield. The Packers have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush too so I would expect Joe Burrow to have time without Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith in the Green Bay line up and it should mean the Bengals can score enough points to earn the upset.

However, completing the upset will be down to the Defensive unit and whether they can do enough to rattle Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back for the Green Bay Packers. That is never an easy task, but Cincinnati have been playing well on this side of the ball and they may be able to affect the Green Bay Offensive play-calling, especially with the banged up Offensive Line the Bengals are going to be facing in this one.

There has been an effectiveness to the Cincinnati pass rush this season which should be able to get the better of the Green Bay Offensive Line and at least force Aaron Rodgers to make quicker decisions. The Quarter Back is more than capable of doing that and having considerable success doing that, but drives can be stalled with the pressure the Bengals can get up front and that could be very important in their bid to earn the home upset.

The key to the success may be making sure they keep a close eye on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon when it comes to running the ball and the Bengals Defensive Line has been strong against the run. If they can force the Packers to have to throw from third and long spots, the Bengals should be able to make enough plays against Aaron Rodgers to at least force Green Bay to have drives stalling and I think there is every chance the Bengals can earn the upset.

Cincinnati are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog and the Packers do have an important Divisional game coming up against the Chicago Bears which may take away some of the focus from a non-Conference opponent. No one wants to lose a game at any time, but the Bengals may just take advantage of that and I do think the Bengals have the edge on the Defensive side of the ball which could set up the upset.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

College Football Week 6 Picks 2020 (October 10th)

So usually I have been playing the College Football Picks on a weekly basis, but let's be honest this has been a strange year all around.

After looking like any College Football season would be pushed back to the Spring, the individual Conferences slowly came together to produce a new, smaller schedule and the teams were set to go. Players have had to make choices as to whether they would like to play or not, while Covid-19 cases in some Colleges have meant teams have had to play with second, third or fourth string players.

My personal feeling was that I would not attempt to make Picks with as much uncertainty around as there had been, but also believing that by the opening couple of weeks of October we would have a much better idea as to whether the season could be completed in the current climate. When the SEC decided they were returning to the field, my interest picked up and even though this pandemic is far from over, it is good to have Saturday evening Football back on the screens and with a lot more competitive games on a weekly basis than the usual schedules provide.

It seems the Bowl Season and the College Football PlayOff will all be good to go assuming the season finishes as expected, while the Championship Games have been pushed back to mid-December.

I am looking forward to seeing how things develop and of course I just hope there are not the huge outbreaks which will make everyone wonder if it was the right decision to play in the first place.

Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: The SEC is still the top Conference in College Football and the winner of it will be heading into the College Football PlayOff as the team to beat after the LSU Tigers were crowned National Champions in 2019. The Florida Gators have opened the season with consecutive wins and they are a legit contender in this Conference as they are one of three teams in the SEC East who have won both games played.

By the end of the weekend there may only be a maximum of two unbeaten teams in the Conference, but that is mainly down to the Gators as the other two unbeaten teams, Georgia and Tennessee, are also playing each other in Week 6. On the other hand the Florida Gators head out on the road to take on an old rival in Jimbo Fisher who is now the Head Coach of the 1-1 Texas A&M Aggies.

The Aggies dropped the second game of the season against the powerhouse of the Alabama Crimson Tide and they are going to find it tough to bounce back in this one. However, while they have Kellen Mond throwing the ball to some talented Receivers, the Aggies will always feel they have enough points to challenge any team they face in this Conference.

Kellen Mond has plenty of College experience behind him and he didn't have a bad outing against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5 having thrown three Touchdown passes and a single Interception, although that was taken back to the house. The Quarter Back is helping the Aggies average over 250 passing yards per game in the early part of the season and this Florida team, despite being a strong one, are vulnerable through the air as Head Coach Dan Mullen has admitted when talking about the problems the Aggies Offensive unit will give his team.

The Gators have allowed almost 330 passing yards on average this season, although a part of that is down to the fact that teams have needed to throw to keep up with them. Even then it is no excuse to have those kind of numbers and Florida will be more disappointed by the lack of Interceptions this Secondary have had in those games.

Where Florida have excelled is with their pass rush, although Kellen Mond has been well protected to this point, and the strength on the Defensive Line which makes it difficult for teams to produce on the ground. The Gators Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they will believe they can make the Aggies one-dimensional at worst although they have to show they can slow down Kellen Mond and prevent him having another big game.

Ultimately the Gators will believe they have enough big plays in the locker to be able to do that on the Defensive side of the ball, while they will also believe they can increase the pressure with their own Offensive output. Kyle Trask is a potential Heisman winner and he is helping the Gators average over 350 passing yards per game in the early weeks of the SEC season which has helped Florida remain unbeaten behind two strong wins.

There is very little faith that the Aggies Secondary can consistently stop Trask and his Receiving talent having given up almost 300 passing yards per game and with a very limited pass rush trying to rattle the Quarter Back. Florida's Offensive Line have protected Trask, while also paving the way for some big running lanes, although like Texas A&M it may be more about the Quarter Back's throwing talent than expecting huge chunks to be gained on the ground.

The Aggies have been able to pick up some turnovers and that could be key in this game where both Offensive units will believe they can move the ball up and down the field at will. It will come down to superior talent and that is where I give the Florida Gators a narrow edge over the Aggies and ultimately think it will lead to a win by a Touchdown at least.

Florida are 31-12 against the spread in their last forty-three as the road favourite and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games overall.

On the other hand, Texas A&M are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and they are 8-21 against the spread in their last twenty-nine following a straight up loss. This is a team that has sometimes struggled when the level picks up in Conference play and I do think that is the case here with the Florida Gators looking like a team that could be a potential National Champion.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: In usual circumstances the ACC Conference is split into two Divisions and we would have a Championship Game at the end of the season. In 2020 nothing is usual and this year the entire Conference is placed in one standings and the top two teams will end up competing for the Championship in mid-December.

Only five of the teams have an unbeaten record going into Week 6 of the weird 2020 season and two of those are meeting here when the Virginia Tech Hokies visit the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday.

The Hokies are unbeaten despite the fact that they have had a Covid-19 outbreak in the dressing room and were forced to play some of the second string players. They have missed twenty players in the last couple of games played and that has seen opponents have a chance to attack the Secondary and I have to believe the North Carolina Tar Heels are going to take the same approach.

It may not be easy to throw the ball in the conditions though and that is going to be the challenge for the Tar Heels here despite some decent numbers in the early part of the season. The pandemic will have broken some of the rhythm that the North Carolina Offensive unit may have had otherwise seeing as they have played a single competitive game in a month and with rain and wind forecasted it may be tough to throw the ball forty times in this one.

That will mean leaning on a strong rushing attack, although the Virginia Tech Hokies have remained strong on the Defensive Line even when the Secondary have been struggling. The Hokies have only given up 3.5 yards per carry so it may be difficult for Michael Carter to pick up from where he left off against the Boston College Eagles in Week 5 when piling up over 100 yards on the ground.

North Carolina will have more trust in their Quarter Back, although it won't be easy for Sam Howell if his team are not able to stay in front of the down and distance in this game. Howell has not impressed as the Tar Heels would have liked, but he has been decent enough behind an Offensive Line which has not always been at their best in pass protection. That has to be a major concern for the Quarter Back considering how effectively the Virginia Tech Defensive Line have been at getting Sacks on the board and it may be the best way for the Hokies to at least keep North Carolina in check and have a chance to upset the odds here.

Quarter Back play has been a real issue for the Hokies already this season, but there could be some better news coming for them and possibly as early as Week 6. The expected starter was supposed to be Hendon Hooker, but College Football protocols have meant he has not been able to play as he has been in quarantine, although that may be coming to an end now.

Even if Hooker is able to go, it won't be down to the Quarter Back whether the Virginia Tech Hokies are able to win this game. Instead the focus in their first two games has been pounding the rock and they have been very effective at doing that with the Offensive Line mowing down opponents and opening holes for 7 yards per carry.

Those numbers have been compiled against the NC State Wolfpack and the Duke Blue Devils, but this week the Hokies are going up against the Tar Heels Defensive Line which has held opponents to 2 yards per carry. Without any doubt it is the team that controls the line of scrimmage best which is going to be in a position to win this game and I do think it will be tough to stop the Hokies even though everyone knows what they want to do.

The Tar Heels have not exactly managed to stop two of the elite running teams in the nation, but the Defensive Line does deserve respect.

Even then I think the Hokies will be able to do enough to be in front of the chains in this one and that should allow their Quarter Back, whoever it is, to make some plays to keep things moving. Staying in front of the chains is important to slow down what is a fierce North Carolina pass rush, although the Defensive Line might not be pinning back their ears while the game is competitive knowing the first port of call is stopping the run.

The Hokies have gotten the better of this rivalry in recent seasons with four straight wins over the North Carolina Tar Heels.

They are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to North Carolina and Virginia Tech are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog. Getting more than a Field Goal worth of points looks good enough to back the road team here to keep this one competitive against a good looking North Carolina team.

Florida State Seminoles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: We would usually be watching the Notre Dame Fighting Irish try and run through a very difficult schedule as an Independent College Football team and that also meant that they would be in a very tough spot when it came to trying to earn a College Football PlayOff spot.

2020 has given the Fighting Irish an unexpected chance to play within a Conference setting as they were allowed to join the ACC and they are 1-0 within the Conference going into Week 6. Other teams have had issues trying to get through the weeks without being impacted by the pandemic the world is living with, but the Fighting Irish were not able to avoid the same and that has meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are taking to the field for the first time in almost a month.

Some feel that may have seen the Fighting Irish lose some rhythm, but they remain big favourites to remain unbeaten having beaten the Duke Blue Devils and South Florida Bulls in their first two games. Only one of those was a Conference game, but the Fighting Irish are one of five unbeaten teams within the ACC and they will be looking to make it two out two when they host the Florida State Seminoles.

The Seminoles might have had a miserable start to the 2020 season, but they at least managed to snap their losing start in Week 5 even if it came against an overmatched opponent. Being able to take to the field will at least mean Florida State are game-ready for this big test in Week 6, although the Seminoles have to show more heart and grit than they did in losing to Georgia Tech and then being embarrassed by their State rivals the Miami Hurricanes.

Beating Jacksonville State is one thing, but facing one of the teams that could be a National Title contender is a whole different ball game for the Seminoles this week. They have had Quarter Back issues all season with a third player going behind Center in their win over Jacksonville State after early struggles for James Blackman and Tate Rodemaker.

Jordan Travis rallied Florida State for the win over Jacksonville State in Week 5 and he has been given the starting spot for the team at Quarter Back this week. It is a big test for Travis who is going to be facing a Notre Dame team that have simply not been giving up much Defensively.

The Fighting Irish have given up less than 200 passing yards per game and restricted teams to 2.9 yards per carry and that has helped them dominate their first two opponents. Of course the Seminoles are expected to be better than the Blue Devils or Bulls that Notre Dame have played, but this is a team that has struggled to throw the ball consistently and the feeling is that Travis is more comfortable running the ball than throwing it.

It will be important for Travis to use his wheels to try and open up the passing game and also to ease the pressure on the Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection all season. The Fighting Irish have the pass rush pressure to get to Jordan Travis and it may be an evening where the Florida State Seminoles struggle Offensively as they did in their two games against FBS opponents.

Head Coach Brian Kelly has admitted it was a difficult time for Notre Dame with all of the Covid-19 positive tests they had to deal with, but they have had almost three weeks to make sure players are healthy and feeling better. It should mean a strong team is able to take to the field and the Fighting Irish will be confident that Ian Book will be able to pick up from where he left off in mid-September.

It may not all be down to Book to throw the ball because the Seminoles Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and Kyren Williams has been able to establish the run effectively for the Fighting Irish. If Williams is able to run the ball behind his Offensive Line as he has in the first two games, Ian Book will be in third and manageable spots where he can expose the Secondary that has struggled to stop the pass.

Florida State have not really been able to pressure the Quarter Back so Book should have plenty of time to pick his targets against a Secondary which has allowed almost 280 passing yards per game this season which includes facing one FCS team. That has to be a real concern for the Seminoles and I think the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be too strong across the board as long as they are fully healthy.

I do expect that to be the case with the way the schedule has worked out and two years ago the Fighting Irish blew out the Florida State Seminoles at home. The Seminoles are now 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog and Notre Dame are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite.

It may begin close as Notre Dame just work off the cobwebs, but eventually I think they will be able to create some big Defensive plays which sparks them Offensively and allows them to roll through the Florida State Seminoles.

Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers Pick: In recent years we have seen the top College Football programs refuse to allow a bad ending to one season seep into the next and that is where the Clemson Tigers find themselves. Losing the National Championship Game would have hurt and the manner of the defeat would have stung all the more, but the Tigers might be the team to beat in the College Football ranks this season.

They are the current Number 1 Ranked team in the country, but nothing matters aside from winning the ACC Conference and looking to do so as an unbeaten Champion to confirm their spot in any College Football PlayOff which is going to be played. They are 3-0 for the season and the Tigers are 2-0 in Conference play, but this is a big game in front of them as they are set to take on the Miami Hurricanes.

Like the Clemson Tigers, the Hurricanes are 3-0 in 2020 and 2-0 within the Conference and so it feels like the winner of this one will be well on the way to earning a spot in the Championship Game in mid-December.

D'Eriq King transferred across from the Houston Cougars to give the Miami Hurricanes a new starting Quarter Back to lean on and his start has been very impressive as his team have seen off UAB, Louisville and Florida State. You can't ignore how well King has played, but facing the Clemson Defensive unit is a completely different level of challenge for him and the chance to prove himself.

The Quarter Back will be trying to make plays against the Clemson Secondary which has held their first three opponents to an average of 213 yards per game through the air. That number is aided by the fact that the Defensive Line have been incredibly strong at shutting down teams on the ground and forcing them to become one-dimensional by having to throw the ball to stay competitive.

Cam'Ron Davis might be able to help King in this one with his ability to break tackles and rip off chunks on the ground, but the Tigers will feel they can control the line of scrimmage despite the strong numbers Miami's Offensive Line have produced. D'Eriq King is capable of scrambling for yards on the ground too, but the Hurricanes are going to be tested by this pass rush too and I do think the Tigers are looking to show they are ready to beat any team put in front of them.

It helps the Defensive unit to take chances knowing Trevor Lawrence is leading the team from the Quarter Back position and scoring points is rarely going to be a problem for them. Lawrence is a leading Heisman candidate and the player most expect to go Number 1 Overall in the NFL Draft whenever he declares for the next level.

The Tigers have not exactly faced a tough schedule, but Lawrence is a National Champion and has shown he can beat any team he faces when at his best. He is helping the team average over 300 passing yards per game and the Miami Secondary have simply not played as well as their Clemson counterparts, although they are stout enough.

Where Clemson might have a real edge is that they should be able to get more out of Travis Etienne when it comes to running the ball than Miami are able to get from Cam'Ron Davis. The Tigers Defensive Line have been tough to run on, but the Hurricanes Defensive Line has proven to not be as strong even though they are far from easy to run on themselves.

If Etienne can make some big plays, it should ease the Miami pass rush and give Trevor Lawrence the chance to put some big plays on the field even in what could be tough conditions with remnants of Tropical Storm Delta likely to be felt.

Rain and wind may make throwing the ball a little more difficult than normal, but that is where the Clemson rushing Offense may have the edge over Miami and make sure the Tigers are not only ready to win, but ready to cover a big mark.

The Tigers are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home and they are 18-8 against the spread in their last twenty-six as the favourite. I think this is a season in which they are trying to redeem themselves for the way the 2019 season ended and I like the Tigers here.

MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Virginia Tech Hokies + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats - 1.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Women's Final (October 10th)

The Men's Final we all were hoping to see at the French Open will be taking place on Sunday, but before that we get to see the unexpected Women's Final.

This should be a fun Final and much is going to depend on how well the players are able to hold their emotions in check in a big match for both.

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Sofia Kenin: You would have to have some incredible skills to have a good reason for picking Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin to compete against one another for the final Grand Slam title of the 2020 season. The former is definitely a player filled with potential, but there has been nothing to suggest she was ready to reach these heights just yet, while the latter is an Australian Open Champion but someone who has yet to prove she is really happy and confident on the clay courts.

None of that will matter on Saturday when these two young players head out onto the main show court in Paris with the chance to win a Grand Slam title at the French Open.

The success earlier this year at the Australian Open should give Sofia Kenin some confidence and also an ability to deal with the obvious nerves that comes when competing for a Major title. She played really well in Melbourne and Kenin has shown she is someone who can dig deep and put aside any setbacks she has within matches to turn things back around in her favour.

That resiliency and ability cannot ever be discounted and Sofia Kenin is not someone who is going to allow herself to crumble away without leaving all she can on the court. It might be funny to read that considering she was beaten 6-0, 6-0 by Victoria Azarenka at the Rome Masters last month in her sole clay court match, but she has come from behind to turn matches around in this tournament and even the fightback that Petra Kvitova showed in each set of the Semi Final was quickly doused away by Kenin.

I have a lot of time and respect for any player who competes like Sofia Kenin does, but I also can't ignore the fact that she is not the best clay courter out there and her run really has come out of left field. It is much more surprising than her Australian Open success and I think Kenin is going to need some help from her younger opponent playing in a maiden Singles Grand Slam Final.

Iga Swiatek has backed up her stunning dismantling of Simona Halep by beating Qualifiers in back to back Rounds to earn her place in the Final and the Polish player has all the tools to be successful on this surface. She has certainly shown more than her higher Ranked opponent and you cannot deny she has been the more impressive winner throughout this tournament than Sofia Kenin has.

Her levels have been higher for much of the last two weeks and Swiatek has needed exactly seven hours to win her previous six matches so there should be absolutely no worries when it comes to fatigue. At the same time Sofia Kenin has needed almost ten hours on the court, although her fitness is not something I am questioning at all.

In this tournament Iga Swiatek has been stronger behind serve and return compared with Kenin, but I do think the American is going to challenge her more than the last two opponents have been able to do. The bigger question for Kenin is whether she can fight off Swiatek when she is serving because the young Polish player has been dominant on the return throughout the tournament and won more than half the return points played and broken at least four times in all six matches.

That is considerable pressure that is expected to pile down on Kenin who has faced more break points than she has created in half of the six matches she has won to reach the Final. Even in the Semi Final Petra Kvitova had to be considered wasteful on the big points, but Iga Swiatek is breaking at a high rate when those chances have come her way.

I think that is going to be the key in this first meeting on the professional Tour- they did play as Juniors at the French Open in 2016 and it was Iga Swiatek who won in straight sets with a break more secured in each one.

Sofia Kenin has clearly not forgotten about that, but I do think she will find it difficult to earn revenge on this surface and I am going to back the younger player to win her first Grand Slam of her career on Saturday. While I fully expect Kenin to give her all until the end, I think Iga Swiatek will also have enough to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 10th)

There have already been a number of surprise results at the Shanghai Masters and you could add Nicolas Jarry's win over Marin Cilic to that list in the first few days at this tournament.

The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.

One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.

On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.


The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.

Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.


On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.

I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.

Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.

I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.

The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.

With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.

Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.

Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.

He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.

The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.

He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.

Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.

Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.

The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.

That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.

The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.

It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.

Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.

Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.

Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.

He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.

The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.

There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.

Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.

He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.

It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (October 8-10)

The second half of the final World Cup Qualifiers before the Play Offs are played next month will begin on Sunday and we are going to know the majority of nations who are playing in Russia next summer by Tuesday evening.

At the moment 13 of the 32 nations that can Qualify for the World Cup Final are known, but by the end of this next three days of Qualifiers that number will have become 22 of the 32 nations that can make it to Russia. The next few days are very important for a number of nations with the Netherlands effectively out of the World Cup, but who could be joined by the likes of Argentina and Chile who can't make it to the Finals.

Teams like France and Portugal, the two Euro 2016 Finalists still have work to do to finish in the automatic Qualification spots, and others like Italy and perhaps Croatia will have to work their way through the Play Offs.

Big games come thick and fast in the coming days and I will add the final World Cup Qualifier Picks in this thread.

Last week I also wrote a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here. It certainly may be more interesting than sitting through another England game to say the least.


Denmark v Romania Pick: The recent form that Denmark have put together has put them in command of 2nd place in the Group and they will be one of those nations that others will look to avoid in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. They are unlikely to win the Group with Poland needing just a point to secure top spot, but Denmark have won 4 in a row and they have pulled themselves into this spot with impressive performances.

Crushing Poland 4-0 at home and beating Montenegro 0-1 away shows what Denmark are capable of and I am not expecting them to slip up for 2nd place now. A point will do it for Denmark, but this is a team playing with confidence and scoring plenty of goals and I do think they will prove too good for Romania.

The away team have to be respected having won 3 of their last 4 games, but they are out of contention in the Group which is a disappointment for Romania. Playing away from home has been a big problem for Romania and they have suffered losses at Poland and Montenegro in their last couple of away games in the Group.

I expect Denmark to inflict a third straight defeat on Romania on their travels and I think the goals being scored makes the whole team very dangerous.

They have banged in four goals in each of their last couple of home Qualifiers including that thumping for Poland, and Denmark should prove too motivated and clinical for Romania. I will back Denmark to win and cover the Asian Handicap in their final Group game and then they can look forward to the Play Off draw which will be made in a few days time.


Lithuania v England Pick: The final World Cup Qualifier for both Lithuania and England is played on Sunday and there isn't a lot on the line for the two teams. At least England should have some motivation to try and put some wins on the board and earn a top Seed for the World Cup Finals, while Lithuania will want to produce what could be their biggest win.

It is hard to see Lithuania doing that considering the poor form they have been in in recent months. Before the 1-1 draw with Malta, Lithuania had lost 6 straight games and that includes a thumping at the hands of Scotland at home.

Lithuania were beaten 0-3 by England in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group too and I do wonder if they are going to be good enough to contain their visitors. The side have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 home Qualifiers and England will have a point to prove after being criticised for their performance in the 1-0 win over Slovenia a few days ago.

Gareth Southgate may make some changes to his starting eleven but England should still be too good for Lithuania. The Scotland win here last month is the benchmark for England and the expectation will be that the latter can at least win this one by a couple of goals.

It's hard to know what line up Southgate will pick and England laboured so much against Slovenia that they are hard to trust. However they should be a couple of levels better than Lithuania and I expect that to show up here with the away side winning with a comfortable margin on the day.


Poland v Montenegro Pick: The defeat in Denmark looks to be only real blip for Poland on the way to the World Cup Finals held in Russia next June and I fully expect them to earn their place in that tournament on Sunday evening.

Poland should have too much for Montenegro who can't afford to bide their time as they have to win and hope Denmark lose if they want to finish 2nd in the Group. It is a big ask for Montenegro just days after losing at home to Denmark which has put them in this poor position in the Group and the Montenegro players may just have lost a bit of heart.

Playing a Poland team who have been dominant at home in the last couple of Qualifying Groups is not ideal for Montenegro despite the solid results the latter have had away from home. Prior to the last fifteen months, Montenegro had not been the best travellers in Qualifiers and I think Poland have the quality in the final third to hurt them in this one.

If Montenegro have any belief, they will have to push forward in search of goals and that should pave the way for Poland to exploit spaces on the counter attack. Poland will also want to avoid any undue pressure by encouraging Montenegro in this one and potentially opening the door for an upset loss that may give Denmark a chance to steal top spot.

I can see Poland looking to dictate things from the off and they have been very good at home in recent Qualifiers. Poland have scored plenty of goals and I will be looking for them to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they counter attack a Montenegro side who are desperate for a win to keep their World Cup Finals dreams alive.


Slovenia v Scotland Pick: A really poor start to the World Cup Qualifiers saw Gordon Strachan on the brink of leaving his post as manager of Scotland, but they have been very good down the stretch and now hold their destiny in their own hands. However I wouldn't be rushing out to try and purchase Scotland Play Off tickets just yet with one more tough World Cup Qualifier in this Group to come.

They face a Slovenia team who were just minutes away from earning a draw at Wembley Stadium against England and who arguably created the better of the chances through the first hour of that game. Much of the success Slovenia have had in the Group is by being difficult to break down, but the team have not been able to produce a full performance in their away games to be left in a difficult position.

Slovenia now have to win and hope Slovakia fail to beat Malta at home and that will be the only way they can finish 2nd in this Group. A Slovakia win ends their chances and Scotland may hope an early Slovakia game sees the news filter down to the players and perhaps see Slovenia lose some competitive fire.

It is difficult to know how players will respond if they do hear Slovakia are winning but I do think Slovenia will be encouraged by being at home. They will likely come out with more attacking intent knowing a win is the only way they can have a chance of finishing 2nd in the Group and we could see a more entertaining game than the layers may think.

The layers are not expecting goals in this one, but the situation should mean both Slovenia and Scotland have to try and get on the front foot. Slovenia have not conceded a home goal which makes them very dangerous, but they will have to be more positive in this one as they look for the three points, while Scotland will know it's win or bust for them in terms of 2nd place in the Group.

Any goal will open up this game and I do think Slovenia getting forward will give Scotland a chance to counter. While the Slovenia home games have not featured a lot of goals in this Group, all 4 Scotland away games have produced at least three goals shared out even when the layers have not expected it (the price here is same as it was for at least three goals in the Lithuania-Scotland game last month).

I can't see Slovenia giving up even if they were to fall behind and the same can be said for Scotland as two teams attack until the end of the ninety minutes to try and finish 2nd in the section. There should definitely be the spaces to exploit for the teams in the final twenty minutes of this one and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.


Moldova v Austria Pick: Dead rubbers are familiar at this time of the year in the World Cup Qualifiers as teams play out the final fixtures in this Qualifying campaign. That is the case for Moldova and Austria who look set to finish in 6th and 4th place respectively in the Group.

That does make it harder to get a feel for how teams will approach the fixture, although it is likely that Austria are the superior team in this one. The confidence can't be in a great place considering how poorly this Qualifying section has gone for Austria, but Moldova have really struggled at home where they have lost 8 of 9 Qualifiers now.

Moldova have been beaten by the top three nations in this Group at home and it would be a surprise if they are able to earn another result against Austria after producing a 1-1 draw in Vienna. It does have to be said it is hard to trust Austria considering how they have played in the Group, but they showed they were good enough to win in Georgia and this is an 'easier' place to visit.

I would keep in mind that Austria don't have anything to really play for, but I will back them to finish this campaign on a high after beating Serbia on Friday and look for them to follow it up in Moldova. I will look for Austria to win by a couple of goals on the day by backing them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Serbia v Georgia Pick: All of the expectation is on the shoulders of Serbia as the fans will be looking for a confirmed place at the World Cup Finals at the end of this one. However that can build pressure on the players who may feel they have missed one shot of securing top spot in the Group by losing in Austria.

They are very much the favourites to beat Georgia who were 0-1 losers to Wales at home on Friday, but Serbia can't afford to underestimate a team who have shown considerable toughness in the section already.

Georgia were beaten narrowly in Ireland, but they have drawn in Wales and Austria so they will believe they can offer resistance to Serbia who will be anxious to win the game. That can put pressure on the home team to make the right passes in the final third and Georgia can be given additional respect when noting they only lost 2-1 in Germany in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

This is also a nation who beat Spain 0-1 in a friendly ahead of the Euro 2016 Finals and I think the away team can be backed on the Asian Handicap. Serbia did crush Moldova 3-0 at home, but they are only 2-2-0 at home in the Group and this has the makings of a tight game.

Backing Georgia with the start should return half the stake at the very least.


Ukraine v Croatia Pick: There are a couple of these World Cup Qualifiers on Monday where two teams are playing one another with 2nd place in the Group up for grabs. Like the Wales versus Republic of Ireland game, this is another one where both teams have to think they need to win the fixture if they want to earn a Play Off spot next month.

Another similarity with that other fixture is that one of the teams involved here in the game between Ukraine and Croatia knows that anything less than a win is curtains for them. Where Croatia will look at a point as a potentially being good enough to make the Play Offs, Ukraine know they have to win and that mindset can make a difference.

Ukraine have been a strong team in recent home Qualifiers and that has to give them confidence that they have enough to win this fixture. They are perhaps not as familiar to football fans around Europe as Croatia who have some real talent in the squad, but Ukraine have been playing the better football of late.

Where Ukraine have won 7 of their last 9 home Qualifiers and have won 3 in a row in this Group, Croatia have dropped back to back away Qualifiers in Turkey and Iceland. They were also held to a 1-1 home draw with Finland and I am not sure Croatia will be able to switch things back on.

The draw doesn't look like it will be much good to either nation in all honesty, and that should make this another fun fixture to watch. However goals have been a problem for both teams and I think the first goal could be critical and on current form and with home advantage you have to lean towards Ukraine in getting that.

Backing Ukraine on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing the stake will be returned in the event of a draw looks a very attractive price. Croatia may have the Luke Modric's and Ivan Perisic's who are familiar to fans, but the team ethic of Ukraine may be enough as it has been for Turkey and Iceland in home wins over Croatia and I will back the hosts to steal 2nd place and consign Croatia to watching the World Cup Finals on television next summer.


Wales v Republic of Ireland Pick: During the build up to this game you may hear about the importance of finishing 2nd in the Group with the assumption being that Serbia will beat Georgia and earn their spot at the World Cup Finals next June.

That means it is a direct fight between Wales and the Republic of Ireland for 2nd place in the section and I do think there has been some information that may have been lost on the fans. There are NINE World Cup Qualifying Groups in the UEFA section, but only EIGHT 2nd placed teams will be competing in the Play Offs next month.

What may have been lost for fans of these two nations is that currently Wales are right on the brink of finishing as the ninth team and a draw might be good enough to finish 2nd in the Group but not enough to earn a Play Off spot. You have to assume that if I know that, Chris Coleman and the management staff are aware of the situation and that makes this a tougher game for Wales than simply attempting to avoid defeat.

It is much easier for Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane who will be telling their players anything less than a win means the World Cup dream has come to an end.

Effectively it is the same situation for Wales where the draw is only going to be good enough if the Ukraine versus Croatia game in another Group also finishes in a draw and with the number of goals scored in that draw being the same or fewer than the number Wales score.

While I am expecting this to be a tense game where neither team can afford to make a mistake, the situation where both teams need to win could actually make it a little more open than the managers would want. The layers are certainly not expecting a lot of goals with Wales missing Gareth Bale and Ireland perhaps not being the most pleasing team to watch.

However the Ireland away Qualifiers have seen 4 of the last 7 finish with three or more goals and this is a game where the teams may have to take risks throughout the contest. The draw is not likely to be a result which suits either team which should mean more attacking intent is produced and Wales did show decent enough quality going forward a few days ago against Georgia, but also some defensive vulnerability.

The situation both teams find themselves in certainly makes it feel like risks will be taken by two teams that are not normally associated with that kind of football. There should be spaces to exploit in the second half, like there were in the Slovenia vs Scotland game on Sunday, and the situation suggests backing at least three goals to be shared out could be much more likely than the layers believe.


France v Belarus Pick: Barring something as incredible as France's goalless draw with Luxembourg happening again, the home team should comfortably make their way through to the World Cup Finals on Tuesday.

Lightning doesn't usually strike twice in the same place, but France will have to be a little better in front of goal than they were in their 0-1 win in Bulgaria a few days ago.

In all honesty Bulgaria are a decent home team as they have shown over the last fifteen months and the win was a very good result for France. Playing at home against a Belarus team who have struggled on their travels should be a much more comfortable evening for the French and I think they win in dominant style.

Take away the goalless draw with Luxembourg and France have scored 10 goals in their other three home games in the Group. They have scored four times against both the Netherlands and Bulgaria at home and France have the talent to do the same to Belarus.

That is added to by the fact that Belarus have conceded four times in losses at the Netherlands and Sweden and this talented France forward line should be able to take control of this match too. Belarus conceded three times in their 1-3 home defeat to Netherlands at the weekend too and I am looking for France to dominate proceedings and back up their win in Bulgaria.

It is always a challenge for a professional team to hammer others at the international level, but I think a motivated France can score at least four times in a victory on Tuesday at a decent looking price.


Netherlands v Sweden Pick: This was supposed to be the game that would give the Netherlands one last chance to help them move above Sweden into a Play Off spot in the Group. They looked to be doing all they could to make it a possibility, but Sweden's thumping of Luxembourg on Saturday has ended the hopes of the Netherlands.

Barring a win by a seven goal margin for the Netherlands it will be Sweden who have at least a 2nd place finish in the Group.

There is more on the line for Sweden who have a chance to potentially finish above France in the Group if they can win and France fail to beat Belarus at home. That doesn't look a realistic possibility for both things to happen, but football can throw in some strange results and Sweden can have a free shot at winning this game against a demoralised Netherlands.

However I do think Holland will look to be positive earlier and they have played well at home in the Group outside of their defeat to France. Big wins over Bulgaria, Belarus and Luxembourg coupled with the fact Sweden have lost in France and Bulgaria may give the Netherlands the edge in this fixture.

Losing out on a World Cup spot has to hurt the Netherlands and perhaps even see some of the younger players in the squad be given a chance to shine. However I think Dick Advocaat will send out a positive team and I do think they are the superior team to Sweden and can win the head to head against this nation with a victory here following the 1-1 draw in Solna.

I will back the hosts to earn a Pyrrhic victory on Tuesday.


Portugal v Switzerland Pick: There are not many World Cup Qualifiers in the UEFA section with a lot on the line as we complete the initial Group games on Tuesday. That is not the case in Lisbon where Portugal and Switzerland will battle it out for a place in the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer.

Portugal know they have to win if they want to top the Group with the superior goal difference over Switzerland giving them the edge. However the Swiss will head to Lisbon having won 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers knowing any positive result will be enough to finish ahead of the European Champions and consign them to a place in the Play Offs next month.

It should be a tense evening as Switzerland try to work out whether they should stick or twist knowing a draw is a good enough result for them. This is a nation that have become very good at dealing with the Qualifying campaigns before having more issues in the Finals of those tournaments, while Switzerland have to be respected for being unbeaten in 15 games overall.

However I do also think this Portugal team have the confidence that any European Championship winner would have. They have scored plenty of goals at home with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the way for them and Portugal will feel they can eventually wear down Switzerland here.

I feel the same way and I think Portugal will prove to be a little too good for their visitors on Tuesday. They were beaten in Switzerland, but didn't have Cristiano Ronaldo that day and I think the goals scored since that defeat shows how much stress is going to be on the Switzerland defence.

It wouldn't surprise me if Portugal are able to put an exclamation point on the win late in the game as Switzerland are perhaps caught chasing the game and I will back Portugal to cover the Asian Handicap here.


Brazil v Chile Pick: There has to be some conspiracy theorists out there that have to believe Brazil will have no intention of winning this final World Cup Qualifier against Chile knowing a defeat will only increase the pressure on Argentina to finish in the top five in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group.

However I don't think the players will be concerned about all that and will be giving a full effort to win their last home game in the Qualifiers after drawing a couple of games in a row. There is the issue of Brazil having played in the altitude of Bolivia just a few days ago which may have sapped some energy, but I don't believe the players will lie down for Chile.

There is plenty of pressure on Chile too as they will know a 2-0 loss here puts them in a precarious position, while they have everything to gain by avoiding defeat which would give them a Play Off spot at the very least. Chile have not been at their best away from home in the Group where Chile have gone 2-1-5 so far and I think this is a very tough game for them.

Instead Chile could be looking at the other results in the Group and hoping things have gone their way. A lack of motivation in the Brazil squad is a concern, but this has been the stand out team in the Qualifiers and they are 7-1-0 at home in the Group. I think Brazil can earn another victory here to finish the Qualifiers in the right way and put Chile in a vulnerable spot in the Group where they are hoping other nations have not earned the results to put one of the dark horses for World Cup success out of the tournament before the Finals even begin.


Ecuador v Argentina Pick: It all comes down to one game for Argentina who have been a massive underachiever in the World Cup Qualifiers which means they are on the brink of missing out on the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1970. For a team that has the attacking talent Argentina do and who finished as Runners Up in the last World Cup Finals, it would be an immense disappointment to miss out.

Currently they are outside the top five in the South American Qualifying Group with 5th place offering a team the chance to have a Play Off against New Zealand for a place in Russia next summer. Anything less than a win would mean it is all over for Argentina and the only hope they have is to win in Ecuador on Tuesday.

The home team have already seen their World Cup hopes go up in smoke thanks to losing their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers and that has to be an encouragement for Argentina. However there is a reason Argentina are also outside the top five and that is because they have won just 2 of their last 10 Qualifiers and none of their last 5 away from home.

The draw doesn't look like it will be a good enough result for Argentina with the fixtures other teams have and they have to know it is anything but easy to win here. Ecuador have lost their last couple of home Qualifiers, but they would love to play spoiler to end this Group and Argentina have not had a lot of success in recent Qualifiers here.

Ecuador are unbeaten in 3 home Qualifiers against Argentina and they had won back to back home games against them before the 1-1 draw in the last set of Qualifiers. They will play with nothing to lose, but I also expect Argentina to show a little more composure in the final third which has surprisingly been the weakness of this squad.

I think this could be a rare Argentina game that has more excitement than the majority of their Qualifiers have had. The way Ecuador approach games should mean they give this a good go and Argentina will have to take risks themselves to win the game and ensure a top five finish.

Goals have been a problem for Argentina but they have Lionel Messi and I will look for this game to feature at least three goals shared out.


Trinidad and Tobago v United States Pick: For a little while it looked like the United States may miss out on an automatic place at the World Cup Finals but now they are just a point away from securing a spot in Russia next summer. Facing the weakest team in the Group, albeit away from home, should be good enough for the United States to earn a result that ensures they finish in 3rd place.

At the moment the United States are only 2 points clear of both Honduras and Panama, but the 4-0 win over Panama means they are at least 7 goals clear of the teams below them. That should mean a point is enough for the United States who have not won any of their 4 away World Cup Qualifiers in this final Group and the side have drawn 3 in a row on their travels.

It is hard to think the United States can't at least earn a point here against Trinidad and Tobago who have lost their last 6 Qualifiers overall and have been beaten in 3 of 4 home Qualifiers in the section. However none of those losses have come easily with only Costa Rica winning by more than a single goal margin courtesy of an injury time second goal.

That could happen here, but I am not anticipating Bruce Arians taking risks for the United States late in the game. They should be leading at that point, but once the United States go in front I am expecting them to try and shut down their opponents knowing a draw would still be good enough for them.

Trinidad and Tobago host the United States in a home Qualifier eleven months ago which ended in a goalless draw. They have also hosted the United States in 6 previous home Qualifiers and Trinidad and Tobago have avoided defeat in half of those games, while all 3 losses have come by a single goal margin.

The situation feels like one where backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap is the way to go. The United States would be happy for a draw, but I don't see them pushing to win by a clear margin once they get in front and playing in Trinidad and Tobago has been difficult for the likes of Mexico and Costa Rica as well as the United States in recent years.

We are getting more than goal start on the Asian Handicap which means only a big United States win will see this come in as a loss. I think this will be close and I will take the start.

MY PICKS: Denmark - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Slovenia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Austria - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Georgia + 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales-Republic of Ireland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
France Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Netherlands @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Portugal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brazil @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ecuador-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Trinidad and Tobago + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)