NFL Week 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 2nd October-Monday 6th October)

The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books and the injuries are seemingly never ending with some of the top names in the League spending, or about to spend, serious time on the sidelines.

As has been mentioned before, picking Super Bowl Winners is so very hazardous in a League where seventeen regular season games have to be played to make the post-season and knowing that one or two injuries can change the entire outlook for a team.

At the time of writing, the Lamar Jackson injury has not been disclosed neither in seriousness or how many potential weeks he will miss, but he is almost certainly not going to be playing in Week 5. There won't be a single NFL fan that doesn't recognise the drop the Baltimore Ravens will have at the most important position in the game if Jackson is to miss time and Cooper Rush is going to take over and that is not only down to the talent differences.

Cooper Rush just won't be able to come close to replicating what Lamar Jackson will do, while the injuries in key Defensive positions had already weakened the team.

It could become a long 2025 season for the Ravens, although they will have little sympathy from AFC North rivals Cincinnati Bengals who have not been able to do much without Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Both of these teams could end up becoming involved in the trade market to fix things up, but they look short of Kansas City and Buffalo, who have to be the leading teams to once again compete in the AFC Championship Game.

Offensive Line injuries have also been occurring all over the place and on Thursday Night Football the San Francisco 49ers will hope a skeleton crew can somehow earn a victory in a Divisional game on the road.

More injuries will occur and thoughts go out for Tyreek Hill and the awful looking injury he suffered on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets.

Some of those last weekend impacted the selections made, but Week 5 offers the chance to bounce back.

Selections will be added over the course of the next couple of days, but we will begin with the Thursday Night Football game to be played in Los Angeles, although the personal focus will be on Game 3 of the Wild Card Series being played between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

The trio of London games will begin this Sunday featuring the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns, and Week 5 also represents the beginning of Bye Weeks for teams around the League.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Three teams are leading the way in the NFC West with the same 3-1 record and two of those are facing one another on Thursday Night Football when the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers.

It is the Rams who have won the last three in the head to head, and they also earned a victory in Week 4 on the same day that the San Francisco 49ers saw their unbeaten record ended in a home defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

That alone would not be a massive concern, but the 49ers are banged up across both Offensive and Defensive units and that leaves them very vulnerable in a short week.

Brock Purdy was playing at Quarter Back in Week 4, but he is trending towards sitting out on Thursday Night Football as the 49ers look to help Purdy manage his turf toe issues. It helps that Mac Jones is available this week and he has helped San Francisco earn a couple of wins while leading the team in Purdy's absence, although the bigger issue is that his top Receiving options are all hurt and some are going to have to sit out.

In most cases, teams would look to make up for that by handing the ball to the Running Back and using the ground game to stay in front of the chains. The 49ers have a very good Running Back in Christian McCaffrey, but the Offensive Line have not really been opening up the kind of gaps that McCaffrey would exploit, while they are also facing a Los Angeles Defensive Line that has been rebuilt with defending the run in mind.

This is going to make life difficult for Mac Jones, especially if some of the top targets have to sit, while the Rams pass rush has been very effective all season and has helped this Secondary play at a strong level.

After a late comeback defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams bounced back to score a late Touchdown in beating the Indianapolis Colts and this is a team that is playing with a lot of confidence.

Matthew Stafford is playing well and he has a couple of very strong Receivers to help out, while the Rams Offensive Line should have more success in establishing the run.

This will give Stafford the manageable down and distance to expose this San Francisco Secondary, especially as the 49ers pass rush has been struggling and is going to be without Nick Bosa the rest of the way. The Secondary have played the pass pretty well this season, but San Francisco have not faced a Quarter Back playing at the level of Matthew Stafford and this could be a game that potentially gets out of hand for the road team.

Sean McVay has Coached really well in Divisional games, while Kyle Shanahan is 3-6 against the spread in the last nine following a defeat. The latter also had a tough record when facing NFC West teams last season, while the San Francisco 49ers were 0-3 against the spread when set as the road underdog in 2024.

You could potentially make a case for a backdoor cover if the Rams lose a bit of focus, but you have to believe there is plenty of motivation to secure a big win over a Divisional rival.

If they can come out and make an early statement Defensively, Los Angeles should have the momentum to take the game to the 49ers and ultimately cover this line set. It is one that has moved out past the key number 7 since the news broke of the players sitting out for the San Francisco 49ers, but the Rams may still be able to secure a double digit win to push this Divisional rival back to 0.500 for the season.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: One blown coverage ended the unbeaten start to the season, but the Indianapolis Colts (3-1) will be looking to bounce back immediately and reinstate their belief that they are the best team in the AFC South.

Two crushing wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans and a fortunate one over the Denver Broncos made for a good start to the season, but the Colts were narrowly beaten by the Los Angeles Rams.

Being back at home will help and the Colts are also going up against a struggling Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) team that have been guilty of shooting themselves in the foot.

A one point loss to the Chicago Bears makes it three defeats in a row for the Raiders and it is never easy having to play in the early time slot for teams out West.

Running the ball has been the focus for the Raiders, but they have lost a key part of the Offensive Line to injury and that could make things tougher this week. They are also going up against an Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line that have looked improved at clamping down on the run and that will mean it could be up to Quarter Back Geno Smith to find a way to keep the chains moving.

The veteran has been struggling with the Raiders having issues in pass protection and Geno Smith has to know he is going to be put under pressure whenever in obvious passing situations. There are some talented Receivers on the roster, but that pressure has forced mistakes and Smith will need to be careful against this Secondary, even after the unexpected sudden retirement of Xavien Howard during the week.

Indianapolis received a bit of positive news on the other side of the ball with Matt Goncalves set to take his place on the Offensive Line and this should also be good news for Jonathan Taylor. The Running Back is facing a tough Defensive Line, but he will be hoping his healthy Offensive Line can open up a couple of lanes and Taylor has shown that is all he needs to take the ball and carry it down the field.

He will be aided by the running threat that comes with a Quarter Back like Daniel Jones and the Colts may feel they can get something going on the ground, even against a solid enough unit like the one the Raiders will trot out to stop them.

Daniel Jones won the starting job and has begun the season really well, although he did throw his first couple of Interceptions of the season last week.

Having eyes on Maxx Crosby is key and if the Colts can contain the pass rusher, Daniel Jones should have enough time in the pocket to attack this Secondary, while play-action is another important part of the game-plan. The Colts have really shown something Offensively through four games and they can keep that going, especially back at home, and it should give them a good chance to bounce back in a winning effort.

Raiders Head Coach Pete Carroll is still trying to stamp his authority on his team and it just feels like Las Vegas are making enough mistakes to believe one or two more in this game will help Indianapolis along to win and cover this line set.

Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Any team holding a perfect record through four weeks of the regular season have to be considered a good one, but there feels something a little underwhelming about the Philadelphia Eagles (4-0). The concern for the rivals who want to take the Super Bowl crown from the Eagles heads is that there was room for improvement midway through last season before Philadelphia really picked up their levels and ultimately won it all.

No one around the Eagles camp will be too concerned, but you have to accept that they are very fortunate to have an unbeaten record.

However, they do have some solid wins on the board and that makes Philadelphia dangerous if they are winning games without being at their best.

Next up is a game against the Denver Broncos (2-2) who ended a run of consecutive defeats by blowing out the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. The short week is not ideal, but Head Coach Sean Payton will have his team well prepared and there are going to be opportunities for Denver to capitalise on.

Sean Payton will want to keep the strong Eagles Offensive unit on the sidelines and the Denver Broncos have prided themselves on being able to run the ball really well behind this Offensive Line. They will have noted some of the early struggles that the Eagles have had up front, and Philadelphia are allowing 4.6 yards per carry in games since the Dallas opener when you could forgive the challenges up front after Jalen Carter was thrown out of the game.

JK Dobbins should be able to have a good game and that is going to be a positive for Quarter Back Bo Nix, who has been given some very strong Receiving options to aid in his development at the position.

This Broncos Offensive Line are not only very strong when it comes to paving the road for the Running Back, but they have given Bo Nix protection. On Monday Night Penalties was the only issue for the Linemen and Sean Payton will have spent some time looking to clear that up with Denver not expected to have much success if they keep penalising themselves.

Bo Nix will have to be careful of this Philadelphia Secondary, which is playing well even when the pass rushers have failed to generate the same kind of penetration into the backfield as last year. He does have players like Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin who can make plays for him, and Nix will also be much more comfortable if the Broncos establish the run as anticipated.

If the Broncos are moving the ball with some authority, it can only give confidence to the Defensive unit who are considered as good as any other in the NFL.

Lane Johnson is available for the Eagles and he has proven to be a lynchpin on the Offensive Line, although Philadelphia have yet to get the run game going. They are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and Saquon Barkley has made a quieter start to the season compared with his 2024 numbers, and it all adds up to being another tough day against this Broncos Defensive Line.

Jalen Hurts is another who can make plays with his legs, but the Eagles fans are looking for more out of the passing game- even Receiver AJ Brown has made his feelings clear about that. It hasn't helped that Hurts has been under pressure when dropping back to throw, especially as the team have been forced into third and long spots, and the Quarter Back could have Broncos pass rushers all around him during this game.

The pressure generated up front has been a big help to a solid Denver Secondary and this could be another game in which the Eagles are ultimately falling short of the number of yards the opponent has earned.

Opposing the Super Bowl Champions is never easy, but the Denver Broncos do look the right side with more than a key number 3 worth of points.

They can find a balance Offensively and the Broncos Defensive unit are capable of making some big plays to give the road team every chance of winning this one outright. However, taking the points is sensible in case of a late Field Goal kind of defeat.

Philadelphia could be potentially looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football Divisional game against the New York Giants and have simply not been playing at the level that may be required to beat a solid team like the Broncos.

The Eagles have covered the last five times they have played before a Thursday Night scheduled game, but they are only 7-6 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season. A blow out would be a surprise considering what we have seen through the first quarter of the new season and the Broncos are playing well enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one competitive.

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Neither of these teams is looking like one that could challenge for Playoff spots at the end of the season and that means additional pressure on the Head Coach, General Manager and the players that are currently on the roster.

Everyone has a point to prove, despite the opening records.

The Carolina Panthers (1-3) will be hosting and they were absolutely crushed in Week 4, which meant failing to build on the upset over Divisional rivals Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. It was such a poor outing that Bryce Young was once again benched for Andy Dalton at Quarter Back, although the veteran is not expected to be announced as the starter.

They are facing a Miami Dolphins (1-3) team playing on a short week, but one that finally got on the board in the Monday Night Football win over the New York Jets.

However, it was far from the perfect night when Tyreek Hill went down with an injury that is going to keep him out for the rest of the season and is almost certainly going to be one that threatens his career.

Jayden Waddle will step up as the Number 1 Receiver going forward, but losing Hill is a huge blow and will make it that much more difficult for Miami to build on the momentum they may have picked up in the Week 4 win.

The Dolphins will look to lean on De'Von Achane who is a threat as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield, but who is also running behind an Offensive Line that has opened up some significant gaps to be exploited. It is impossible to ignore the issues the Panthers Defensive Line have been having all season and so Miami are likely going to look for Achane to get going early, which in turn will open up the passing lanes.

Tua Tagovailoa has not had a great season, but he made enough positive plays last week to believe he can keep it going in this game. Being in front of the chains is huge for the way Miami runs the Offensive unit and Tagovailoa is unlikely to be under a lot of pressure, which should mean the Dolphins are able to move the ball with some consistency throughout the day.

Despite the obvious struggles in the blowout loss to New England in Week 4, the Carolina Panthers have to believe that Bryce Young can bounce back in this contest.

It would make his life easier if the Panthers could get on track when it comes to running the ball, but that has been an early struggle for the Offensive Line. However, they are facing a Miami team that have really had problems stopping the run all season and so this feels like a good opportunity for the home team to put Bryce Young in a position to succeed.

The Dolphins Secondary played well enough against the New York Jets, but that was also because of the pass rush they were able to generate and keep Justin Fields moving. That has to happen again if the Dolphins want to force Young into some mistakes, while the Quarter Back is perhaps lacking a consistent threat outside, which also makes it tough for Carolina to move into a position to string wins together.

Carolina are a narrow home underdog, and they have been good in this spot since the beginning of the 2024 season, but Miami have covered in their last five games when set as the road favourite facing a team that has a losing record overall.

Miami are far from a good team, which makes it tough to back them to win games, but they should have enough balance Offensively to get the better of a struggling Panthers team, even on the road.

Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Divisional losses really do hurt a lot more than a normal loss and a couple of those NFC West defeats have dropped the Arizona Cardinals (2-2) into the basement of that Division. They have had additional time to prepare for this Week 5 game and it is an important one, even in a non-Conference setting.

They are hosting a Tennessee Titans (0-4) team who have had their Number 1 Overall Pick Quarter Back voicing his frustrations this week at the way the season has unfolded to this point.

Cam Ward has to be given credit for wanting to win, but this is a very difficult situation to be dropped into and the Titans feel a long way from contending. Things can turn around in the NFL pretty quickly, especially as the Titans look like they could end up leading the way with the top Draft Pick in 2026 when a number of intriguing Quarter Backs could be coming into the League.

For now it is a struggle and the Titans have just had so many issues Offensively that it makes it tough to move the chains with any kind of consistency.

Everything begins on the Offensive Line and the Titans have simply not been able to run the ball with any authority, which shifts so much pressure onto the shoulders of a young Quarter Back. They are not expected to have a lot of ground success in this game and so it will be up to Cam Ward to find his Receivers and hope they can make some plays for him.

If the Offensive Line have struggled to help establish the run, they have been worse at giving Cam Ward the time to let routes develop down the field. Sacks have been racked up by opponents and that has contributed to a really poor passing game, which makes it tough to believe Tennessee can even expose this vulnerable Arizona Secondary.

Replacing James Connor is not going to be easy for the Arizona Cardinals, but Trey Benson can have a much stronger game than he did in the defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.

Where Seattle can play the run pretty well, this Titans Defensive Line have struggled to stop teams on the ground and Benson, along with Quarter Back Kyler Murray, should be able to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.

The Quarter Back was the leading rusher in the loss to Seattle, and his legs remain a big weapon, but the Cardinals will want to see a bit more consistency in the passing game. Kyler Murray should be able to target a couple of solid Receivers when in front of the chains considering the lack of pass rush pressure that the Titans have generated early this season, and with a Secondary that is allowing more and more yards in recent outings.

A connection with Marvin Harrison Jr is getting better all of the time and the Arizona Cardinals can use the extra prep time to make sure they are back over 0.500 by the end of Week 5. They can cover an awkward number with Murray having a 13-7 record against the spread when suffering back to back losses and the Cardinals may become the latest to get the better of Tennessee by at least 8 points.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: After losing in Week 1 to NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions (3-1) had to accept some of the criticism around the performance. After losing earlier than expected in the 2024 Playoffs, Head Coach Dan Campbell will not have been surprised by that, but this is a demanding Coach and the players have responded with three dominant wins.

They are facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 and so there is a chance that the Detroit Lions will be overlooking Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) who have lost two in a row since Joe Burrow went down with an injury.

Losses alone would not be a cause for panic, but the Bengals have looked completely uncompetitive without Burrow under Center- they have been outscored 76-13 in losing the last two games and Quarter Back Jake Browning has been struggling.

No one will dispute that going from Burrow to Browning is a big downgrade, but the Cincinnati Bengals have not helped their backup in any way.

For starters they have shown an inability to run the ball, even before their star Quarter Back was injured, and the Offensive Line is not expected to open up big holes against this Detroit front. It has meant Jake Browning being in obvious passing situations far too often, and he has been trying to allow the likes of Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase to get down the field, which has led to Sacks.

A healthier Detroit Secondary have been playing well and they do get plenty of pressure up front, which should set the Lions up for some short fields and potential turnovers.

Right now you do not want to give this Detroit team extra Offensive possessions and especially if your own Defensive Line is struggling to make a difference in the run game.

The one-two punch that Detroit continue to run out of the backfield is going to create huge problems for the Cincinnati Bengals and they should have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs picking up big yards at a time.

Detroit will still give Jared Goff some opportunities to throw the ball and the Quarter Back is going to be in comfortable field position, while he is also going to have a clean pocket when he does drop back to throw. The Bengals Secondary were a cause for concern when the season began and they are not likely to slow down the Lions, which should ultimately lead to a comfortable road win.

It is a big line when you think the Lions are on the road and Jake Browning has not played here since coming in and helping Cincinnati beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Being at home should just help the Quarter Back, although this Lions team are playing like they are reminding everyone how good they were in 2024 and what kind of ambitions they have in 2025 and that has seen them crush the likes of the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.

The latter's fellow AFC North team do not look like they have the Defensive unit to slow Detroit, and it would be a huge surprise if Jake Browning and the Offense can keep up on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

College Football Week 5 Picks 2025 (Saturday 27th September)

The last three weeks have been something of a frustrating time for the College Football Picks and there have been a number of late scores that have been given up to flip the spread.

Last week it was the USC Trojans who were on their way to a cover, but allowed a long Touchdown pass to be completed with less than three minutes left on the clock to give up a second backdoor cover in three games.

Backing them this week may feel a little risky with that in mind, but they should be ready to show the rest of the Big Ten that they are a genuine contender within the Conference and perhaps for even more.

Moving into Week 5 does mean the Conference schedules are really underway and there are some big, big games over the weekend.

All eyes will be on the Penn State-Oregon and Georgia-Alabama games, but those are very tough to predict and instead the focus is on other games as far as the selections go.

The majority of selections are from games in the first two windows of action on Saturday with the last being a late, late night show from the Big 12.

USC Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Some will argue that the Big Ten may be the toughest Conference in College Football with the Ohio State Buckeyes the National Champions and the likes of the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers all looking capable of matching the Playoff runs from 2024.

Add the USC Trojans (4-0) to the mix after they continued their perfect start to the season with a big home win over the Michigan State Spartans. That victory also means USC are leading the way in the Big Ten Conference with the 2-0 record in the books, although this is a team that is still going to learn a lot more about themselves in the weeks and months ahead.

Wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are decent enough, but the Trojans will be set for a challenge in Week 5 when visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1).

Granted, there may have been a really different feel around the game if the Fighting Illini had not just been crushed by 53 points at the home of the Hoosiers.

Losing is one thing and the Fighting Illini will be aware that they still have time to turn the perceptions around, but the bigger impact is the number of injuries suffered in the Secondary both before the loss to the Hoosiers and during the defeat. In the Big Ten you need your best players and Illinois are going to be without some hugely influential players that will make it tough to slow down a USC Offensive unit that have begun the season incredibly brightly.

The early Saturday kick off time is an issue, but USC did not let that bother them in the road win over Purdue.

There will be a real feeling on the Offensive side of the ball that the Trojans can do much of what they like considering how well the Offensive Line are playing. They should be able to establish the run very efficiently and this is just going to make things as comfortable as possible for Quarter Back Jayden Maiava, even if Ja'Kobi Lane has to miss another game.

With the injuries in the Secondary and the likelihood of the Trojans running the ball very well, Jayden Maiava should have his way as he continues to be well protected and it should mean the USC Trojans can pile up some points.

The pressure will subsequently be on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois Fighting Illini Offensive unit to at least be able to control the tempo of this game and to try and keep up with the Trojans on the scoreboard.

There are very little positives to take out of the beat down in Indiana and Luke Altmyer struggled with less than 150 passing yards thrown.

Problems began right up front as the Offensive Line struggled to open up holes in the running game and the grand total of 2 rushing yards last week was clearly a big issue. Despite the three wins secured early, the Fighting Illini had been inconsistent on the ground and they are not likely to see much change out of this strong looking USC Defensive Line.

It wasn't just run blocking, but the Illinois Offensive Line struggled in pass protection and there is every chance that the Quarter Back is going to be under siege for a second game in a row. Seven Sacks were produced by the Hoosiers and this Trojans pass rush are going to feel they are in and around Luke Altmyer all day if the Fighting Illini have struggled to run the ball.

As teams have chased big deficits, the Trojans have allowed some passing yards to be given up, but this looks another big test for the Fighting Illini Offensively having failed as comprehensively as they did in Week 4.

The Trojans are just 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen games in which they have been set as the road favourite and that does temper some enthusiasm to back them here.

However, they look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and this feels like a very tough spot for Illinois after all they suffered last week.

Head Coach Bret Bielema has a good record after a loss and he has been a solid underdog to back, but his Illinois team are just 2-3 against the spread as the home underdog in the last couple of seasons. They will be better than last week, which is not going to be too difficult, but the USC Trojans can do enough Offensively to pull away and then allow the pass rush to force the stops needed to secure a win by double digits for a fifth time in five outings in 2025.

Utah State Aggies @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: As a former player, Head Coach Clark Lea was always going to take the job with the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0) and the only way was up after the team had finished 0-9 in the 2020 season.

With that being said, the Commodores finished 2-10 in two of the first three seasons under this Head Coach and 5-7 in 2022, while Vanderbilt had not had a winning record since 2013.

All that changed in 2024 with the team winning a Bowl Game to end the season at 7-6 and that includes Clark Lea leading the team to a first ever win against a top five Ranked opponent when upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide. They finished 3-5 within the tough SEC, and Vanderbilt have brought back 19 starters from the team that achieved so much last time around, which has in turn sparked this 4-0 start.

Week 6 sees the rematch with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, but all of the focus this week is on Vanderbilt beating the Utah State Aggies (3-1).

Three straight losing seasons have been placed in the books, but Utah State are being led by Bronco Mendenhall in his first season as Head Coach and they are one win away from matching the total from last season. There is a huge amount of respect for Mendenhall in the Vanderbilt Coaching ranks, including Clark Lea who has described the veteran as a 'mentor'.

Utah State have an upset win on the board against the Air Force Falcons, but they were well beaten in the sole road game played at Texas A&M Aggies.

Healthy respect aside, this is a big chance for Vanderbilt to conclude September as an unbeaten team and playing with confidence before heading into Alabama where the home team will be desperate for revenge. They will accept that the Aggies can cause problems with a dual-threat at the Quarter Back position, but this Commodores Defensive Line have clamped down on the run early this season and they will be looking to do the same here.

Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has put up some solid numbers in the first four games of the season, but he will be under a lot of pressure if the Aggies are not able to run the ball. His Offensive Line have not been nearly as productive when it comes to pass protection and Barnes will be aware that this Vanderbilt pass rush is going to be coming for him.

That pressure up front has protected the Secondary and Bryson Barnes will just need to be aware of turning the ball over under pressure.

These issues were on display when Utah State were beaten at Texas A&M earlier this season and the road team are going to have to work hard to shut down what has been a very confident Vanderbilt Offensive unit.

Like the Mountain West team, Vanderbilt have a dual-threat playing from the Quarter Back position in Diego Pavia and he has almost 900 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards already this season. In the defeat to fellow SEC team Texas A&M, Utah State were not able to slow down the ground attack and this Commodores Offensive Line are going to believe they can set the team up in manageable spots throughout the game.

It should open things up for Diego Pavia, who has been very well protected when dropping back to throw the ball, and the Quarter Back can have success moving the chains with his arm.

The Commodores are not a team who have been set as the home favourite too often in recent seasons and they have generally underperformed when they have. However, this Vanderbilt team is extremely confident and experienced and they have covered as the home favourite twice, while blowing out the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road as a narrow underdog.

There is a chance that Clark Lea calls off the dogs if they have a big lead with the game against Alabama in mind, and that could allow a backdoor cover.

However, there is a feeling around this part of Nashville that hasn't been around for a long time and the Head Coach will want his team to ride to Alabama with a huge amount of belief. That should mean allowing the Offensive players to do their thing for long enough to win this game and cover the mark set as the Commodores continue to fly and try to prove themselves as something truly special this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies Pick: They may have lost two games last season, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) ran through the Playoff without being pushed and they ended the year as National Champions.

Once again they are amongst the favourites to win the National Championship and the win over the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 has only strengthened the claims.

Head Coach Ryan Day is preparing his team for the opening Big Ten Conference game and it looks a real test for the Buckeyes in a true road setting.

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have also made a perfect start to the 2025 season and Head Coach Jedd Fisch is looking for much better having guided the Huskies to a 6-7 record in 2024. He was in a tough spot when taking over from Kalen DeBoer who had taken the Huskies to the National Championship Game in 2023 and had helped the team win twenty-five games across two years.

It was also a season in which Jedd Fisch was taking a team that was moving into the tough Big Ten Conference and the Huskies finished 4-5 in those games, which makes this home opener something of a statement game for the underdog as much as the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Offensive Line let the Washington Huskies down last season, but that has been a unit that they have actively looked to improve. The early signs are better, but the Huskies are going to be tested up front by this Ohio State pass rush and especially if the home team are not able to establish the run.

It will be the Line of Scrimmage that is massively important on this side of the ball and the Buckeyes Defensive Line have to be confident having had at least one really difficult match up with the Texas Longhorns. The overall performances have been very good when it comes to playing the run and the Buckeyes will feel they can shift the pressure onto Demond Williams Jr at Quarter Back, although they will have to be wary of his ability to move the ball with his legs as much as his arm.

Demond Williams Jr is going to be up against a top Ohio State Secondary and care will have to be taken that he is not pushing the envelope so far to end up making costly mistakes.

The Huskies have won their last twenty-two games at home, but the Buckeyes represent as tough a visiting team that they will have hosted in that time.

We will also learn a lot more about the Washington Defensive unit, which has started the season very well, when they go up against this Buckeyes team.

Once again the Line of Scrimmage is going to be hugely important and the Buckeyes Offensive Line will look to impose themselves on the Washington Defensive Line. This is where the early scheduling can make a difference and the Huskies have simply not faced any team with the power of the Buckeyes, while the latter have already earned that win over Texas which has been mentioned above.

The strength to open up running lanes has also been backed up by very good pass protection and that should give Quarter Back Julian Sayin an opportunity to keep the chains moving. There have been one or two holes in the Washington Secondary that will excite the talented Receivers that the Buckeyes have and they will feel they can win their battles and give Sayin places to throw the ball.

Interceptions have been something of an issue for Julian Sayin, but he has plenty of talent around him to make up for any mistakes and the Ohio State Buckeyes can really display their superiority, even on the road.

The Huskies just feel like a team that have more to prove, and this is a significant step up in class compared with the three teams beaten.

Ohio State are also playing after a Bye Week and they are 10-7 against the spread with rest under Head Coach Ryan Day- he should have the Buckeyes really well prepared and they were also 5-2 against the spread as the road favourite in 2024, a number that they can improve in Week 5.

Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: There was plenty of controversy attached to the Auburn Tigers (3-1) losing their unbeaten record in a road loss at the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 4, but the team has to move on. The SEC admitted that the officials had made a mistake when allowing a Sooners Touchdown to stand and that will have made the 7 point loss sting, especially for a Head Coach who has had two losing seasons and can ill-afford a third.

Recent years have been tough for Auburn as they have slipped behind the standards of some of the other top schools in the SEC and losing records have become the norm. Hugh Freeze was appointed as Head Coach to turn that around, but he has an 11-14 record in the first two seasons.

There have been things to like about Auburn through the first four weeks of the season, but the loss last week means they need to show immediate recovery powers as they face an opponent that will be targeting a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M Aggies (3-0) have an upset win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish under their belt and they are playing for the first time since then.

An opening SEC game is always going to present a new challenge, but the Aggies are at home and there is a feeling that Texas A&M have shown something very positive in winning on the road at Notre Dame. Head Coach Mike Elko is trying to keep things in perspective by pointing out the team are 0-0 in SEC play this season, but the Aggies have been noted with a move into the top ten of the early Rankings.

This is the first of three consecutive home Conference games and the experienced Aggies should have taken full advantage of the Bye Week by focusing on the tape from the Oklahoma win over Auburn.

The key will be up front as the Aggies Defensive Line looks to control the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the Auburn rushing attack- this is a team that only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the season last year and Texas A&M have picked up from where they left off with a strong beginning to this campaign.

Slowing down the run and forcing Jackson Arnold to beat them with his arm will be seen as a big win for the Aggies, especially when you factor in the pass protection issues that were on display in the loss to the Sooners. Some of that has been put on the Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line should take a fair portion of the blame for the Sacks racking up and now they have to deal with a very productive Texas A&M pass rush.

Issues in pass protection have limited the numbers that Jackson Arnold has been able to produce, although there has to be some credit for the fact that the Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, despite the pressure being put on him.

Even then, it looks like it will be another difficult day moving the ball with any consistency and that will put the pressure on the Tigers Defensive unit.

There hasn't been much going wrong for the Aggies Offensive plans early in the season, although they may feel that this is the toughest Defensive unit they will have to face.

Both teams will be well aware of the battle at the Line of Scrimmage- last season the Aggies finished second in the SEC in terms of rushing yards per game, and they have begun this season with strong ground numbers, but they are facing an Auburn Defensive Line that prides itself on being able to slow the run. In 2024 the Tigers only allowed 3 yards per carry, and they limited the Sooners to just 35 ground yards last season with this Line looking even tougher this season.

You know that neither will want to take a backwards step and so there will be plenty of runs called by the home team to try and break through, while Quarter Back Marcel Reed is capable of moving the ball with his legs.

However, it is the arm that has been impressing through three games and Marcel Reed has one edge over Jackson Arnold and that is he is playing behind an Offensive Line that has offered him time in the pocket. Keeping the Auburn pass rush at bay will be a challenge, but Reed is also going to have noted some of the holes that have been evident in the Tigers Secondary and he is going to have talented Receivers finding a way to get open and give the home team an opportunity to move the chains.

This is where the Aggies may end up having the edge and they can earn revenge for the very narrow defeat to Auburn at the back end of the 2024 season.

It was a dramatic game won in a Fourth Overtime, while the Tigers had pushed the game into Overtime by scoring a Field Goal with 5 seconds remaining in regulation.

This will not have been forgotten by the Aggies, who have a 6-0 record against the spread when set as Conference favourites of less than 16 points and with the revenge angle on their side.

Auburn have bounced back from defeats pretty well against the spread under Head Coach Hugh Freeze, but they are 0-5 against the spread when facing an opponent playing with revenge and the Texas A&M Aggies can display they are a serious Playoff contender with a solid home win in Week 5 of the season as the SEC schedule gets underway at College Station.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have found a way to get the better of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), but there is still so much for the Volunteers to play for through the remainder of the regular season. One defeat is not going to keep them out of the College Football Playoff and the team responded to the heartbreaking defeat to the Bulldogs by crushing the UAB Blazers in Week 4.

However, there is a pressure on Tennessee to get back on track in the SEC having dropped the opening Conference game and they are facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) who lost all eight SEC games played last season.

Credit has to be given to the Bulldogs in the fact they have already doubled the win total of 2024 through the first four games, but the schedule has been relatively comfortable. The narrow win over the Arizona State Sun Devils, a team that made the Playoff Bracket last season, will have given Mississippi State a lot of belief, especially as they had been set as the home underdog in that game.

It is a win that could look very good come the end of the season, but this is the start of a run of eight SEC games in succession and that is when the schedule does look extremely challenging.

The Bulldogs do have some experienced players on the roster, although the team lost valuable players from last season in the transfer portal. Despite those losses, the start made to the 2025 campaign will have given the Bulldogs a huge amount of belief, even if they are about to step up a level or two in terms of competition.

Running the ball against this Volunteers Defensive Line has proven to be a huge challenge in recent years and everything points to this being a strength of the unit once again. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have begun the season very well, but the schedule has helped and the expectation is that Quarter Back Blake Shapen is going to have to make plenty of plays with his arm to keep things moving.

Blake Shapen was the understudy at the position last season so the system is not something that will be unfamiliar to him and he has made a strong start. 884 passing yards with 7 Touchdown passes has to be respected, but playing from behind the chains will be a different test for the Quarter Back, as will the fact that he is likely to be under pressure from this Tennessee pass rush.

There have been one or two spaces to exploit in the Secondary, which will give Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs something to attack, but finding the consistency will be the test for the home underdog.

Mississippi State have produced some early solid numbers on the Defensive side of the ball, but the level of competition cannot be ignored.

In Week 5 they are facing one of the stronger teams in the SEC who are being led very competently by Quarter Back Joey Aguiar.

Everything begins on the Offensive Line though and this Volunteers team have piled up the yardage on the ground and while playing stronger opponents than they one they face on Saturday. Stopping the run was a huge issue for the Bulldogs Defensive Line last season and the Tennessee Volunteers are likely to pummel them in this one and make sure Joey Aguilar is in a much more comfortable position to make plays against the Secondary.

If they are playing in front of the chains as expected, the Bulldogs Secondary are going to find it very difficult to make the same kinds of plays as they have against weaker opponents. This should give Tennessee the opportunities to move the ball pretty comfortably for much of the afternoon and they can win this game and cover the spread.

In recent years the Bulldogs have been a pretty poor home underdog with a 3-9-1 record against the spread since the beginning of the 2021 season. They are 2-3 against the spread in that spot under Head Coach Jeff Lebby, while Tennessee finished 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite last season.

This is the first true road game of the season, which is always going to be a test of character, but the Volunteers are going into a Bye Week following this one and they can put everything into this game.

Being 0-1 in the SEC means there is some urgency too and the Volunteers are unlikely to overlook the hosts, who have made a perfect start to the 2025 season, which should lead to a Tennessee win by double digits.

BYU Cougars @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: These two teams were involved in a rare Conference Bowl Game at the end of last season and the BYU Cougars (3-0) blew out the Colorado Buffaloes (2-2). Head Coach Deion Sanders has downplayed the revenge angle and instead is motivated by trying to help the Buffaloes move back above 0.500, while this is also an important game for Colorado in the Big 12 having dropped their opening Conference game.

So much has changed for the Buffaloes from 2024 with some key players Drafted to play in the NFL and most expected a step back for the team after the 9-4 finish last time around. Only tie-breakers prevented the Buffaloes from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and perhaps even the College Football Playoff, but matching that record and run looks much more uncertain with the team in something of a transition.

The Buffaloes improved from 4 wins in Coach Prime's first season in charge to 9 wins in 2024, but a winning record might be seen as a success in 2025.

A home loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackes and a blowout road loss to the Houston Cougars has been the outcome for the Buffaloes when playing Power 4 Conference teams. While the BYU Cougars have not exactly had the toughest of schedules to open the season, this is going to be another stiff test for Colorado considering how good the Big 12 Conference contenders have looked.

Last season BYU were another team who finished 7-2 in Big 12 play, but they also missed out on the Championship Game on tie-breakers.

Motivation is high to go at least a step further in 2025 and the Cougars have some key Offensive players back, and that experience makes them a considerable threat.

The Offensive Line have ripped open some big running games in this unbeaten start to the season and they will be hugely encouraged by the yardage that the Buffaloes have given up on the ground. It looks like the Colorado Defensive Line is set for a step backwards compared with 2024 and the Cougars should be able to establish the ground game, which in turn should makes things that much more comfortable for Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier.

He will have time in the pocket and Chase Roberts has begun 2025 from where he left off last season and the road team will feel they can move the chains with plenty of consistency over the course of this game.

One of the key reasons the Cougars were able to have such a successful 2024 was the play of the Defensive unit and the early signs is that the 2025 unit is going to be just as tough.

They have clamped down on the run through the opening three games and that is going to be key for them against the Buffaloes as they look to force the Quarter Back to make the big plays for the home team. There has been an uncertainty around the position early in the season and so the Cougars will be really confident if they can have Colorado backed up into third and long spots.

Kaidon Salter is almost certainly going to be given the start, but Deion Sanders is not going to be worried about having to shift him out if the game plan is not being executed. The Quarter Back will have picked up some confidence from his play against the Wyoming Cowboys last time out, but Salter is facing a Cougars Secondary that has played the pass very well.

BYU have also gotten plenty of pass rush pressure up front and Colorado's Offensive Line may not allow Kaidon Salter, or any other Quarter Back, to have the time needed if they are in third and long spots. Throwing under pressure is very dangerous against the Cougars Defensive Backs and a turnover or two may just set the road team on the way to a win and a cover.

Deion Sanders is a huge motivator for the Colorado players and they are 9-5 against the spread when set as the underdog, although 0-2 this season.

They are 8-2 against the spread playing with the revenge factor and the Bowl Game defeat will not have been forgotten by anyone in Boulder.

However, this BYU team look like genuine Big 12 Championship contenders and they are 4-2 against the spread in the last six games when set as the road favourite. Imposing themselves at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball should give the Cougars the edge and they can win this one by at least a converted Touchdown margin.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Vanderbilt Commodores - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 3rd October-Monday 7th October)

Last week was a true bounce back one for the NFL Picks after the first losing week of the season.

It has been a tough week to get my thoughts down before the Thursday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We should be in a more usual mode for next week and hopefully that will be after another solid week of selections.

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets Pick: The International Series has already grown in 2024 with a game played in Brazil, but the NFL are set to expand that over the coming years. More announcements could be made relatively soon as the first of three London games is played in Week 5 of the season.

All of the talk when this game was announced was about seeing Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets (2-2), but the excitement around the Minnesota Vikings (4-0) heading to the Great Britain Capital was tempered as soon as Kirk Cousins was traded away.

Things feel much different in Week 5 with the Vikings unbeaten and leading the tough looking NFC North, while the Jets have work to do.

Aaron Rodgers was not happy with himself after the loss to the Denver Broncos as a big favourite last Sunday, but the comments made by Head Coach Robert Saleh have been making the headlines. He did not seem that happy with the way the Offensive unit was run, and there have been some reports of tension between Head Coach and Quarter Back before that defeat.

It was a miserable day all around for the Jets as they scored just 9 points at home, but reinforcements will arrive if Rodgers has his way. The team are leading the way when it comes to trading for Davante Adams, but for now the Jets will have flown over to London looking for a much better all around performance.

That may be a tough ask for Aaron Rodgers and his team-mates considering the level being produced by the Vikings on the Defensive side of the ball. The Quarter Back has not really found a great rhythm or chemistry with his Receivers right now and so it may not be easy for the Jets to attack the Minnesota Secondary that has given up plenty of yards as teams have tried to find a way back into games.

While there have been plenty of yards allowed, Minnesota's team have forced Interceptions too and turnovers will be key to the outcome of this game. Aaron Rodgers has historically not given away too much when facing the Vikings in his time with the Green Bay Packers, but he was under immense duress every time he stepped back to throw the ball against Denver and pressure is going to be all around him in this one in obvious passing situations.

Leaning on the running game will still likely be the plan for the Jets, but this has been the real strength of the Minnesota Defensive unit so it may be tough for Breece Hall to have a big impact on the ground. Instead the Jets may look to scheme the Running Back into positions where he can take quick throws from Aaron Rodgers and try and turn them into big gains with Rodgers not expected to be playing behind an Offensive Line that could give him time to allow routes to develop.

You have to expect more than Week 4 from the Jets, but the conditions in London look mixed and it may be tough for New York to really improve. Aaron Rodgers is likely going to make some plays, but it's never easy behind an Offensive Line resembling a turnstile and so it could be another tough day for a 40 year old who took plenty of big hits last week.

Sacks might play a big part in this game on the other side of the ball too considering the pressure the Jets can generate and the recent problems the Vikings have had in pass protection. However, Sam Darnold will be heading into this 'revenge' game knowing that his running attack is likely going to put the Vikings in a much stronger position than what is expected from the New York Jets.

The Minnesota Offensive Line will have been encouraged by what Denver were able to do against the Jets last week and they have a more competent Quarter Back who will be given more respect than Bo Nix was afforded. Despite the lack of passing yards from Nix, Denver won the game behind a strong run and Aaron Jones could pick up from where the Broncos left off.

Keeping Sam Darnold in front of the chains has been key to the early successes the Quarter Back has had and he has been able to spread the ball around to some talented playmakers. There are some solid Defensive Backs that will need to be pointed out when the Vikings are setting to throw, but Darnold has to believe his Receivers will win out and his decision making has been absolutely right so far.

It should allow Minnesota to keep the chains ticking over and the Vikings may just maintain their perfect covering record in London.

Full focus can be on this game with a Bye Week coming up, while Aaron Rodgers has yet to remind the fans to 'relax'. Things might just have to get a little worse for the Jets before there are signs of getting better and Minnesota might get the better of the former Green Bay Packer, much to the delight of their fans from both sides of the pond.

The expectation is that this will be a competitive game thanks to the abilities of both Defensive units, but Minnesota's rushing attack could prove to be the difference maker on the day.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears Pick: There are always going to be comparisons between the top Quarter Backs taken in the NFL Draft and it is no surprise some talking heads are already suggesting the Chicago Bears (2-2) might regret picking Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels. You won't hear that from the organisation though considering the improvements they feel they are seeing from their rookie behind Center and the win over the Los Angeles Rams was perhaps Williams' best performance of this young season.

The Bears were favourites to beat the Los Angeles Rams at Soldier Field in Week 4 and they are favourites again before heading to London for a meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Next up is the Carolina Panthers (1-3), a team that have looked rejuvenated with a veteran at Quarter Back- much like the Bears, they spent a lot of time wondering whether picking Bryce Young over CJ Stroud was a mistake and ultimately it looks like a miss from the Panthers with Young benched and Stroud operating like one of the top players in the position.

Two more losses with Bryce Young behind Center meant a change was necessary and this is now Andy Dalton's team.

Offensively the Panthers have certainly looked more capable with Dalton at Quarter Back and that will give them an opportunity to spring the upset. With someone capable of throwing the ball with better success than Bryce Young managed, the Offensive Line have been able to offer Andy Dalton enough protection and they have also opened up some big running lanes.

Chuba Hubbard has taken advantage and he should have some success on the ground against this solid Bears Defensive Line. This is key for the Panthers as they look to manage the game and remain in front of the chains at all times, and it will also slow down any Chicago pass rush which did rattle Matthew Stafford.

The Rams Quarter Back still made some big time throws against this Bears Secondary and Andy Dalton should have a decent game when stepping back to throw. Avoiding Interceptions will be key for Dalton and the Panthers, but if he can play a clean game, the Panthers should be able to move the ball and the 60 points scored in the last two games is a number they can build upon.

Chicago snapped a two game losing run with their victory over the Rams in Week 4 and they saw some life from a struggling running game, and that was a huge benefit for their young Quarter Back. It took a bit of time for D'Andre Swift to get going in that victory, but the Running Back ended up having his most productive game of the season.

There will be a chance to back that performance up with another solid outing against this Panthers Defensive Line and that will be encouraging for Caleb Williams. The Offensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked this season, but they could be aided by some downhill running and staying in front of the chains will mean they do not have to protect Williams for too long.

Even if Caleb Williams needs time, the Panthers pass rush may not be able to take full advantage of the Chicago Offensive Line problems. Instead the Panthers will look to the Secondary to stay with some of the solid Receivers that Chicago have and will also be looking to tempt Williams into an errant throw or two.

You have to credit the Bears for covering as the favourite on two out of two occasions this season, but the distraction of playing in London next week is a factor. The improvements made by the Panthers in the last couple of games, especially Offensively, could see them keep this close and the play is taking the points with the road team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: In recent years, the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) have combined to dominate the AFC North and games between these Divisional rivals have been hugely important to the final standings.

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers may have something to say about top spot in the Division, but there is still a feeling that the Ravens and Bengals are amongst the top teams in the entire League.

It has been tough for the Bengals early in the season and it was hugely important for them to beat the Carolina Panthers and earn their first win of the season. Questions have begun to be asked about Joe Burrow and Head Coach Zac Taylor, but they can only be answered by how they play on the field and Cincinnati have to be massively motivated by being set as the home underdog.

There will be a feeling that the Bengals can build momentum if they are able to upset the odds and win this game with the likes of the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns to come. However, winning this game is going to be anything but easy and especially not against a Baltimore team that have won back to back games and just blown out the Buffalo Bills in a prime time spot.

Much will depend on the Cincinnati Offensive Line on this side of the ball as they look to try and establish the run and avoid the team becoming predictable or one-dimensional. Running the ball against the Baltimore Ravens has been a huge challenge for all of their opponents this season though and it feels like a tough spot for the Bengals to have much more success.

Ultimately the game will lean on Joe Burrow at Quarter Back and some talented Wide Receivers.

This Ravens Secondary may not be as strong as previous versions, but the pass rush is very effective and that can cover up some of the holes that Quarter Backs would love to exploit. If the Bengals are in third and long spots, that pressure could still make an impact on the game and help to stall drives, although you also have to expect some solid numbers from Burrow and the passing game.

Pass rush can slow down drives, but the Ravens will also feel they can control the clock and keep the Cincinnati Offensive unit sitting on the sidelines for an extended period.

Some thought Derrick Henry was perhaps not the player he once was with the Tennessee Titans, but he has been producing big time Football for the Baltimore Ravens and could pick up from where he left off in Week 4. There is no doubting the power and quality of Henry, but playing alongside Lamar Jackson feels unfair to Defensive Lines and the Cincinnati Bengals will struggle to contain the tandem on the ground.

Everything good that Baltimore will do Offensively begins with the powerful running game and the Ravens should have plenty of success. It also means Lamar Jackson has time when he has been asked to throw the ball and being in front of the chains means the Quarter Back has been able to avoid costly mistakes, which is also important in a tight game like this one.

This should be a competitive and fun game for fans to watch, especially for the neutrals, and something of a back and forth contest. The ability of the Ravens to run the ball should be a key difference and they have won three of the last four regular season games between these Divisional rivals, although Cincinnati do hold a PlayOff win over Baltimore in that time too.

The Ravens had lost three in a row in Cincinnati before getting the better of them last season and Baltimore can ride the momentum gained over the last two weeks to an important win and the chance to move above 0.500 for the first time this season.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders Pick: If you had said at the start of the season that one of these teams would have a 3-1 record and the other 1-3, it is almost certain you would have predicted the wrong team to be holding that mark ahead of this Week 5 non-Conference game.

The Cleveland Browns (1-3) have been a huge disappointment so far in 2024 and they are playing in a very tough Division. On the other side, the Washington Commanders (3-1) have bounced back from a Week 1 defeat and won three in a row to move to the top of the NFC East and Jayden Daniels has performed at a high level to have people wondering if he should not have been the Number 1 Overall Draft Pick rather than Caleb Williams.

One Quarter Back is playing on his rookie deal, but that is far from the case for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns. A lot of money and Draft Picks were invested into Watson when trading for him to take over as Quarter Back in Cleveland, but he has not been able to return to the form he had showed in his time with the Houston Texans.

It really does not make things easy when the Offensive Line is banged up and with Nick Chubb yet to return from a devastating injury. Even then, more has been expected from Watson at Quarter Back and there is no doubt that more will be needed if big decisions are to be avoided in the off-season.

The Offensive unit have struggled, but this game could be a chance for Cleveland to have a bit more success running the ball, which is all so important for them. Injuries have made it difficult for consistency, but the Commanders Defensive Line have not been clamping down on the run and so there is an opportunity for Cleveland to allow Watson to play in third and manageable situations.

Deshaun Watson has not really found any consistency in his passing, but being in front of the chains will help, even if that help is having a bit more time. He has been under a lot of pressure early in the season and the Commanders will bring the heat up front to rush the Cleveland Quarter Back.

This should give Washington the chance to at least slow the Cleveland Offensive unit and give the ball to Jayden Daniels in his bid to continue to impress.

Brian Robinson Jr is a potential big miss for the Washington Commanders having begun the season so well at Running Back, but Austin Ekeler is a capable replacement. With a dual-threat Quarter Back, the Commanders Offensive Line should be able to establish the run against this struggling Browns rushing Defense and that will help the rookie Jayden Daniels no end.

Credit has to be given to the Browns Defensive unit for keeping the team competitive since the Week 1 blowout to the Dallas Cowboys, but it will be tough to stop the Commanders if they continue to run the ball as effectively as they have been. For starters it should ease some of the pass rush and Jayden Daniels has shown an efficiency when throwing the ball, and that has impressed considering he has played just four NFL games.

Playing at that level will make it tough for the Browns and Washington look like they can keep the good times rolling through another week. The situation is different for both teams with the Cleveland Browns having been favoured while losing and the Washington Commanders coming through as the underdog in each of their last two victories.

Expectations can do funny things to players and teams, but the ability to run the ball like the Commanders have done will give them a slight edge and Jayden Daniels may just outplay Deshaun Watson.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Carolina Panthers + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.87 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)