World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (October 8-10)

The second half of the final World Cup Qualifiers before the Play Offs are played next month will begin on Sunday and we are going to know the majority of nations who are playing in Russia next summer by Tuesday evening.

At the moment 13 of the 32 nations that can Qualify for the World Cup Final are known, but by the end of this next three days of Qualifiers that number will have become 22 of the 32 nations that can make it to Russia. The next few days are very important for a number of nations with the Netherlands effectively out of the World Cup, but who could be joined by the likes of Argentina and Chile who can't make it to the Finals.

Teams like France and Portugal, the two Euro 2016 Finalists still have work to do to finish in the automatic Qualification spots, and others like Italy and perhaps Croatia will have to work their way through the Play Offs.

Big games come thick and fast in the coming days and I will add the final World Cup Qualifier Picks in this thread.

Last week I also wrote a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here. It certainly may be more interesting than sitting through another England game to say the least.


Denmark v Romania Pick: The recent form that Denmark have put together has put them in command of 2nd place in the Group and they will be one of those nations that others will look to avoid in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. They are unlikely to win the Group with Poland needing just a point to secure top spot, but Denmark have won 4 in a row and they have pulled themselves into this spot with impressive performances.

Crushing Poland 4-0 at home and beating Montenegro 0-1 away shows what Denmark are capable of and I am not expecting them to slip up for 2nd place now. A point will do it for Denmark, but this is a team playing with confidence and scoring plenty of goals and I do think they will prove too good for Romania.

The away team have to be respected having won 3 of their last 4 games, but they are out of contention in the Group which is a disappointment for Romania. Playing away from home has been a big problem for Romania and they have suffered losses at Poland and Montenegro in their last couple of away games in the Group.

I expect Denmark to inflict a third straight defeat on Romania on their travels and I think the goals being scored makes the whole team very dangerous.

They have banged in four goals in each of their last couple of home Qualifiers including that thumping for Poland, and Denmark should prove too motivated and clinical for Romania. I will back Denmark to win and cover the Asian Handicap in their final Group game and then they can look forward to the Play Off draw which will be made in a few days time.


Lithuania v England Pick: The final World Cup Qualifier for both Lithuania and England is played on Sunday and there isn't a lot on the line for the two teams. At least England should have some motivation to try and put some wins on the board and earn a top Seed for the World Cup Finals, while Lithuania will want to produce what could be their biggest win.

It is hard to see Lithuania doing that considering the poor form they have been in in recent months. Before the 1-1 draw with Malta, Lithuania had lost 6 straight games and that includes a thumping at the hands of Scotland at home.

Lithuania were beaten 0-3 by England in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group too and I do wonder if they are going to be good enough to contain their visitors. The side have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 home Qualifiers and England will have a point to prove after being criticised for their performance in the 1-0 win over Slovenia a few days ago.

Gareth Southgate may make some changes to his starting eleven but England should still be too good for Lithuania. The Scotland win here last month is the benchmark for England and the expectation will be that the latter can at least win this one by a couple of goals.

It's hard to know what line up Southgate will pick and England laboured so much against Slovenia that they are hard to trust. However they should be a couple of levels better than Lithuania and I expect that to show up here with the away side winning with a comfortable margin on the day.


Poland v Montenegro Pick: The defeat in Denmark looks to be only real blip for Poland on the way to the World Cup Finals held in Russia next June and I fully expect them to earn their place in that tournament on Sunday evening.

Poland should have too much for Montenegro who can't afford to bide their time as they have to win and hope Denmark lose if they want to finish 2nd in the Group. It is a big ask for Montenegro just days after losing at home to Denmark which has put them in this poor position in the Group and the Montenegro players may just have lost a bit of heart.

Playing a Poland team who have been dominant at home in the last couple of Qualifying Groups is not ideal for Montenegro despite the solid results the latter have had away from home. Prior to the last fifteen months, Montenegro had not been the best travellers in Qualifiers and I think Poland have the quality in the final third to hurt them in this one.

If Montenegro have any belief, they will have to push forward in search of goals and that should pave the way for Poland to exploit spaces on the counter attack. Poland will also want to avoid any undue pressure by encouraging Montenegro in this one and potentially opening the door for an upset loss that may give Denmark a chance to steal top spot.

I can see Poland looking to dictate things from the off and they have been very good at home in recent Qualifiers. Poland have scored plenty of goals and I will be looking for them to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they counter attack a Montenegro side who are desperate for a win to keep their World Cup Finals dreams alive.


Slovenia v Scotland Pick: A really poor start to the World Cup Qualifiers saw Gordon Strachan on the brink of leaving his post as manager of Scotland, but they have been very good down the stretch and now hold their destiny in their own hands. However I wouldn't be rushing out to try and purchase Scotland Play Off tickets just yet with one more tough World Cup Qualifier in this Group to come.

They face a Slovenia team who were just minutes away from earning a draw at Wembley Stadium against England and who arguably created the better of the chances through the first hour of that game. Much of the success Slovenia have had in the Group is by being difficult to break down, but the team have not been able to produce a full performance in their away games to be left in a difficult position.

Slovenia now have to win and hope Slovakia fail to beat Malta at home and that will be the only way they can finish 2nd in this Group. A Slovakia win ends their chances and Scotland may hope an early Slovakia game sees the news filter down to the players and perhaps see Slovenia lose some competitive fire.

It is difficult to know how players will respond if they do hear Slovakia are winning but I do think Slovenia will be encouraged by being at home. They will likely come out with more attacking intent knowing a win is the only way they can have a chance of finishing 2nd in the Group and we could see a more entertaining game than the layers may think.

The layers are not expecting goals in this one, but the situation should mean both Slovenia and Scotland have to try and get on the front foot. Slovenia have not conceded a home goal which makes them very dangerous, but they will have to be more positive in this one as they look for the three points, while Scotland will know it's win or bust for them in terms of 2nd place in the Group.

Any goal will open up this game and I do think Slovenia getting forward will give Scotland a chance to counter. While the Slovenia home games have not featured a lot of goals in this Group, all 4 Scotland away games have produced at least three goals shared out even when the layers have not expected it (the price here is same as it was for at least three goals in the Lithuania-Scotland game last month).

I can't see Slovenia giving up even if they were to fall behind and the same can be said for Scotland as two teams attack until the end of the ninety minutes to try and finish 2nd in the section. There should definitely be the spaces to exploit for the teams in the final twenty minutes of this one and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.


Moldova v Austria Pick: Dead rubbers are familiar at this time of the year in the World Cup Qualifiers as teams play out the final fixtures in this Qualifying campaign. That is the case for Moldova and Austria who look set to finish in 6th and 4th place respectively in the Group.

That does make it harder to get a feel for how teams will approach the fixture, although it is likely that Austria are the superior team in this one. The confidence can't be in a great place considering how poorly this Qualifying section has gone for Austria, but Moldova have really struggled at home where they have lost 8 of 9 Qualifiers now.

Moldova have been beaten by the top three nations in this Group at home and it would be a surprise if they are able to earn another result against Austria after producing a 1-1 draw in Vienna. It does have to be said it is hard to trust Austria considering how they have played in the Group, but they showed they were good enough to win in Georgia and this is an 'easier' place to visit.

I would keep in mind that Austria don't have anything to really play for, but I will back them to finish this campaign on a high after beating Serbia on Friday and look for them to follow it up in Moldova. I will look for Austria to win by a couple of goals on the day by backing them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Serbia v Georgia Pick: All of the expectation is on the shoulders of Serbia as the fans will be looking for a confirmed place at the World Cup Finals at the end of this one. However that can build pressure on the players who may feel they have missed one shot of securing top spot in the Group by losing in Austria.

They are very much the favourites to beat Georgia who were 0-1 losers to Wales at home on Friday, but Serbia can't afford to underestimate a team who have shown considerable toughness in the section already.

Georgia were beaten narrowly in Ireland, but they have drawn in Wales and Austria so they will believe they can offer resistance to Serbia who will be anxious to win the game. That can put pressure on the home team to make the right passes in the final third and Georgia can be given additional respect when noting they only lost 2-1 in Germany in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

This is also a nation who beat Spain 0-1 in a friendly ahead of the Euro 2016 Finals and I think the away team can be backed on the Asian Handicap. Serbia did crush Moldova 3-0 at home, but they are only 2-2-0 at home in the Group and this has the makings of a tight game.

Backing Georgia with the start should return half the stake at the very least.


Ukraine v Croatia Pick: There are a couple of these World Cup Qualifiers on Monday where two teams are playing one another with 2nd place in the Group up for grabs. Like the Wales versus Republic of Ireland game, this is another one where both teams have to think they need to win the fixture if they want to earn a Play Off spot next month.

Another similarity with that other fixture is that one of the teams involved here in the game between Ukraine and Croatia knows that anything less than a win is curtains for them. Where Croatia will look at a point as a potentially being good enough to make the Play Offs, Ukraine know they have to win and that mindset can make a difference.

Ukraine have been a strong team in recent home Qualifiers and that has to give them confidence that they have enough to win this fixture. They are perhaps not as familiar to football fans around Europe as Croatia who have some real talent in the squad, but Ukraine have been playing the better football of late.

Where Ukraine have won 7 of their last 9 home Qualifiers and have won 3 in a row in this Group, Croatia have dropped back to back away Qualifiers in Turkey and Iceland. They were also held to a 1-1 home draw with Finland and I am not sure Croatia will be able to switch things back on.

The draw doesn't look like it will be much good to either nation in all honesty, and that should make this another fun fixture to watch. However goals have been a problem for both teams and I think the first goal could be critical and on current form and with home advantage you have to lean towards Ukraine in getting that.

Backing Ukraine on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing the stake will be returned in the event of a draw looks a very attractive price. Croatia may have the Luke Modric's and Ivan Perisic's who are familiar to fans, but the team ethic of Ukraine may be enough as it has been for Turkey and Iceland in home wins over Croatia and I will back the hosts to steal 2nd place and consign Croatia to watching the World Cup Finals on television next summer.


Wales v Republic of Ireland Pick: During the build up to this game you may hear about the importance of finishing 2nd in the Group with the assumption being that Serbia will beat Georgia and earn their spot at the World Cup Finals next June.

That means it is a direct fight between Wales and the Republic of Ireland for 2nd place in the section and I do think there has been some information that may have been lost on the fans. There are NINE World Cup Qualifying Groups in the UEFA section, but only EIGHT 2nd placed teams will be competing in the Play Offs next month.

What may have been lost for fans of these two nations is that currently Wales are right on the brink of finishing as the ninth team and a draw might be good enough to finish 2nd in the Group but not enough to earn a Play Off spot. You have to assume that if I know that, Chris Coleman and the management staff are aware of the situation and that makes this a tougher game for Wales than simply attempting to avoid defeat.

It is much easier for Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane who will be telling their players anything less than a win means the World Cup dream has come to an end.

Effectively it is the same situation for Wales where the draw is only going to be good enough if the Ukraine versus Croatia game in another Group also finishes in a draw and with the number of goals scored in that draw being the same or fewer than the number Wales score.

While I am expecting this to be a tense game where neither team can afford to make a mistake, the situation where both teams need to win could actually make it a little more open than the managers would want. The layers are certainly not expecting a lot of goals with Wales missing Gareth Bale and Ireland perhaps not being the most pleasing team to watch.

However the Ireland away Qualifiers have seen 4 of the last 7 finish with three or more goals and this is a game where the teams may have to take risks throughout the contest. The draw is not likely to be a result which suits either team which should mean more attacking intent is produced and Wales did show decent enough quality going forward a few days ago against Georgia, but also some defensive vulnerability.

The situation both teams find themselves in certainly makes it feel like risks will be taken by two teams that are not normally associated with that kind of football. There should be spaces to exploit in the second half, like there were in the Slovenia vs Scotland game on Sunday, and the situation suggests backing at least three goals to be shared out could be much more likely than the layers believe.


France v Belarus Pick: Barring something as incredible as France's goalless draw with Luxembourg happening again, the home team should comfortably make their way through to the World Cup Finals on Tuesday.

Lightning doesn't usually strike twice in the same place, but France will have to be a little better in front of goal than they were in their 0-1 win in Bulgaria a few days ago.

In all honesty Bulgaria are a decent home team as they have shown over the last fifteen months and the win was a very good result for France. Playing at home against a Belarus team who have struggled on their travels should be a much more comfortable evening for the French and I think they win in dominant style.

Take away the goalless draw with Luxembourg and France have scored 10 goals in their other three home games in the Group. They have scored four times against both the Netherlands and Bulgaria at home and France have the talent to do the same to Belarus.

That is added to by the fact that Belarus have conceded four times in losses at the Netherlands and Sweden and this talented France forward line should be able to take control of this match too. Belarus conceded three times in their 1-3 home defeat to Netherlands at the weekend too and I am looking for France to dominate proceedings and back up their win in Bulgaria.

It is always a challenge for a professional team to hammer others at the international level, but I think a motivated France can score at least four times in a victory on Tuesday at a decent looking price.


Netherlands v Sweden Pick: This was supposed to be the game that would give the Netherlands one last chance to help them move above Sweden into a Play Off spot in the Group. They looked to be doing all they could to make it a possibility, but Sweden's thumping of Luxembourg on Saturday has ended the hopes of the Netherlands.

Barring a win by a seven goal margin for the Netherlands it will be Sweden who have at least a 2nd place finish in the Group.

There is more on the line for Sweden who have a chance to potentially finish above France in the Group if they can win and France fail to beat Belarus at home. That doesn't look a realistic possibility for both things to happen, but football can throw in some strange results and Sweden can have a free shot at winning this game against a demoralised Netherlands.

However I do think Holland will look to be positive earlier and they have played well at home in the Group outside of their defeat to France. Big wins over Bulgaria, Belarus and Luxembourg coupled with the fact Sweden have lost in France and Bulgaria may give the Netherlands the edge in this fixture.

Losing out on a World Cup spot has to hurt the Netherlands and perhaps even see some of the younger players in the squad be given a chance to shine. However I think Dick Advocaat will send out a positive team and I do think they are the superior team to Sweden and can win the head to head against this nation with a victory here following the 1-1 draw in Solna.

I will back the hosts to earn a Pyrrhic victory on Tuesday.


Portugal v Switzerland Pick: There are not many World Cup Qualifiers in the UEFA section with a lot on the line as we complete the initial Group games on Tuesday. That is not the case in Lisbon where Portugal and Switzerland will battle it out for a place in the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer.

Portugal know they have to win if they want to top the Group with the superior goal difference over Switzerland giving them the edge. However the Swiss will head to Lisbon having won 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers knowing any positive result will be enough to finish ahead of the European Champions and consign them to a place in the Play Offs next month.

It should be a tense evening as Switzerland try to work out whether they should stick or twist knowing a draw is a good enough result for them. This is a nation that have become very good at dealing with the Qualifying campaigns before having more issues in the Finals of those tournaments, while Switzerland have to be respected for being unbeaten in 15 games overall.

However I do also think this Portugal team have the confidence that any European Championship winner would have. They have scored plenty of goals at home with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the way for them and Portugal will feel they can eventually wear down Switzerland here.

I feel the same way and I think Portugal will prove to be a little too good for their visitors on Tuesday. They were beaten in Switzerland, but didn't have Cristiano Ronaldo that day and I think the goals scored since that defeat shows how much stress is going to be on the Switzerland defence.

It wouldn't surprise me if Portugal are able to put an exclamation point on the win late in the game as Switzerland are perhaps caught chasing the game and I will back Portugal to cover the Asian Handicap here.


Brazil v Chile Pick: There has to be some conspiracy theorists out there that have to believe Brazil will have no intention of winning this final World Cup Qualifier against Chile knowing a defeat will only increase the pressure on Argentina to finish in the top five in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group.

However I don't think the players will be concerned about all that and will be giving a full effort to win their last home game in the Qualifiers after drawing a couple of games in a row. There is the issue of Brazil having played in the altitude of Bolivia just a few days ago which may have sapped some energy, but I don't believe the players will lie down for Chile.

There is plenty of pressure on Chile too as they will know a 2-0 loss here puts them in a precarious position, while they have everything to gain by avoiding defeat which would give them a Play Off spot at the very least. Chile have not been at their best away from home in the Group where Chile have gone 2-1-5 so far and I think this is a very tough game for them.

Instead Chile could be looking at the other results in the Group and hoping things have gone their way. A lack of motivation in the Brazil squad is a concern, but this has been the stand out team in the Qualifiers and they are 7-1-0 at home in the Group. I think Brazil can earn another victory here to finish the Qualifiers in the right way and put Chile in a vulnerable spot in the Group where they are hoping other nations have not earned the results to put one of the dark horses for World Cup success out of the tournament before the Finals even begin.


Ecuador v Argentina Pick: It all comes down to one game for Argentina who have been a massive underachiever in the World Cup Qualifiers which means they are on the brink of missing out on the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1970. For a team that has the attacking talent Argentina do and who finished as Runners Up in the last World Cup Finals, it would be an immense disappointment to miss out.

Currently they are outside the top five in the South American Qualifying Group with 5th place offering a team the chance to have a Play Off against New Zealand for a place in Russia next summer. Anything less than a win would mean it is all over for Argentina and the only hope they have is to win in Ecuador on Tuesday.

The home team have already seen their World Cup hopes go up in smoke thanks to losing their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers and that has to be an encouragement for Argentina. However there is a reason Argentina are also outside the top five and that is because they have won just 2 of their last 10 Qualifiers and none of their last 5 away from home.

The draw doesn't look like it will be a good enough result for Argentina with the fixtures other teams have and they have to know it is anything but easy to win here. Ecuador have lost their last couple of home Qualifiers, but they would love to play spoiler to end this Group and Argentina have not had a lot of success in recent Qualifiers here.

Ecuador are unbeaten in 3 home Qualifiers against Argentina and they had won back to back home games against them before the 1-1 draw in the last set of Qualifiers. They will play with nothing to lose, but I also expect Argentina to show a little more composure in the final third which has surprisingly been the weakness of this squad.

I think this could be a rare Argentina game that has more excitement than the majority of their Qualifiers have had. The way Ecuador approach games should mean they give this a good go and Argentina will have to take risks themselves to win the game and ensure a top five finish.

Goals have been a problem for Argentina but they have Lionel Messi and I will look for this game to feature at least three goals shared out.


Trinidad and Tobago v United States Pick: For a little while it looked like the United States may miss out on an automatic place at the World Cup Finals but now they are just a point away from securing a spot in Russia next summer. Facing the weakest team in the Group, albeit away from home, should be good enough for the United States to earn a result that ensures they finish in 3rd place.

At the moment the United States are only 2 points clear of both Honduras and Panama, but the 4-0 win over Panama means they are at least 7 goals clear of the teams below them. That should mean a point is enough for the United States who have not won any of their 4 away World Cup Qualifiers in this final Group and the side have drawn 3 in a row on their travels.

It is hard to think the United States can't at least earn a point here against Trinidad and Tobago who have lost their last 6 Qualifiers overall and have been beaten in 3 of 4 home Qualifiers in the section. However none of those losses have come easily with only Costa Rica winning by more than a single goal margin courtesy of an injury time second goal.

That could happen here, but I am not anticipating Bruce Arians taking risks for the United States late in the game. They should be leading at that point, but once the United States go in front I am expecting them to try and shut down their opponents knowing a draw would still be good enough for them.

Trinidad and Tobago host the United States in a home Qualifier eleven months ago which ended in a goalless draw. They have also hosted the United States in 6 previous home Qualifiers and Trinidad and Tobago have avoided defeat in half of those games, while all 3 losses have come by a single goal margin.

The situation feels like one where backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap is the way to go. The United States would be happy for a draw, but I don't see them pushing to win by a clear margin once they get in front and playing in Trinidad and Tobago has been difficult for the likes of Mexico and Costa Rica as well as the United States in recent years.

We are getting more than goal start on the Asian Handicap which means only a big United States win will see this come in as a loss. I think this will be close and I will take the start.

MY PICKS: Denmark - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Slovenia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Austria - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Georgia + 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales-Republic of Ireland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
France Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Netherlands @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Portugal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brazil @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ecuador-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Trinidad and Tobago + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (October 5-7)

Over the next few days the final World Cup Qualifiers in the Groups around the world are being played before the Play Offs in November will determine which teams are making up the next World Cup Finals.

I am going to split up the picks from the two rounds of fixtures with the picks from the penultimate fixtures placed in this thread for games to be played from Thursday through to Saturday.

The final set of World Cup Qualifiers will be placed in a thread I should have ready to go on Saturday evening which will cover games that are played from Sunday through to the following Wednesday.

I've written a short piece about Manchester United and what has been a strong start to the season which you can read here.


Syria v Australia Pick: Asia have already provided four representatives for the World Cup Finals next summer, but surprisingly Australia were not one of them. They have not played well in the Qualifiers and that means Australia have to negotiate a Play Off in the Asian Qualifiers before facing the team who will end up 4th in the CONCACAF Confederation which may easily be the United States.

It won't be easy for Australia who would have hoped they could have finished in the automatic Qualification spots on offer.

They are facing a team in Syria who are playing with 'house money' which does make them dangerous, but having to deal with a two Legged tie without any home advantage is difficult. Despite having to travel to host home games, Syria are unbeaten in 8 games and they have won 5 of those.

Syria ending up drawing 3 of their 5 'home' Qualifiers in the final Round and it has to be said that Australia's poor away form is why they were unable to finish higher than 3rd in their own Group. Missing out on a top two berth on goal difference can be directly linked to failing to win any of their last 4 away Qualifiers and 3 of those ended in draws.

Draws were what hurt Australia, but a draw here before the home Leg in Sydney next week might not be the worst result for the favourites in this Play Off Qualifier. This does feel like it will be a tight First Leg and the draw has been a big result when these two teams have been playing in the World Cup Qualifiers and that looks a real player here too.

I can't have Australia as odds on to win this First Leg with their away struggles in recent months and the draw does look a big price here. It is certainly worth a small interest.


Armenia v Poland Pick: The 4-0 loss to Denmark last month has just put some pressure on Poland in their bid to finish top of the Group, although they are still in a position of strength. It does mean Poland can't afford to drop more points with a home game against Montenegro to come, and they should have enough to do that in Armenia.

This has proven to be a tough place for Poland to visit over the years with a couple of previous Qualifiers here ending 1-1 and 1-0 to Armenia. They can't have that happen again and this is a Poland team that have looked stronger than the one that would have played here ten years ago.

Armenia have also been guilty of folding in matches recently as shown by the couple of heavy home losses they have had in the Qualifiers. The last fixture saw Armenia go down 1-4 at home against Denmark and they have conceded at least three times in 4 losses in their last 8 home Qualifiers.

The side also conceded four times in a defeat in Montenegro in June and that has to be a concern when considering Poland had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away Qualifiers before their thumping in Denmark.

Poland are not the easiest side to trust away from home, but they have been better in their last couple of Qualifying campaigns. They look like they have goals in the squad which makes them dangerous and I think they can record a big win in Armenia that will put Poland on the brink of confirming their place in Russia for the World Cup Finals next June.

If Armenia lose heart as they have in heavy home losses to Romania and Denmark, Poland should be able to take advantage and I will look for them to cover a big Asian Handicap.


England v Slovenia Pick: There simply isn't the same level of expectation for England heading towards a major international tournament as there has been over the years and that might work out well for Gareth Southgate. He will be looking for England to finish this Group on a high and try and improve the Ranking which could improve Seeding for the World Cup Finals assuming England will be playing there next summer.

It would need a couple of big upsets for England to miss out from automatic Qualification for the Finals, and in all honesty they should be securing their spot at the end of this round of fixtures.

Slovenia will have something to say about that as they try to at least finish 2nd in the Group and earn a Play Off berth. However this is a team who have not travelled as well as they would have liked and losing back to back games to Slovakia and Scotland by the same 1-0 scoreline has hurt Slovenia.

Now they have to earn some kind of result at Wembley where England have won 13 home Qualifiers and have scored at least twice in each of those wins. With Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford in the form they have displayed for their club sides, it would perhaps be a bigger surprise if England don't reach that number of goals again.

I fully expect England to be too strong for Slovenia in this one and confirm their spot in the World Cup Finals. Slovenia will be hoping they are still alive in the Group depending on what has happened in the game between Scotland and Slovakia being played at the same time, but I don't think they will be able to help themselves in this World Cup Qualifier and I will back England to win by a couple of goals on the evening.


Northern Ireland v Germany Pick: Playing at Windsor Park has become a real challenge for any visiting team and Northern Ireland have used that as the foundation for their performance in the Group. In fact it has been a key to their successes over the last few years which have enhanced the reputation of manager Michael O'Neill who sounds very committed to the national team.

Getting Northern Ireland to the World Cup Finals would be a huge achievement for O'Neill, but it does mean they have to negotiate a Play Off as Germany have dominated this Group. A win will give Northern Ireland an outside chance of finishing above Germany, but the focus has to be to get ready for the Play Off they are likely to face next month.

Northern Ireland have been very good at home which should give Germany a challenge to make it 9 wins out of 9 in the Group. However Germany have won in Czech Republic and Norway already in the section and they have scored plenty of goals which has been factored in by the layers who do make them big favourites to win here.

That is the most likely result, but Northern Ireland's performances have to be respected. They have made it hard for Germany in the two matches against one another over the last sixteen months even if both have resulted in German wins, while you can't forget that Germany were beaten at the Republic of Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers.

Ultimately I do think Germany will find a way to win here and I think they are worth backing to win by a one goal or two goal margin. They do have the quality to win by a wider margin if at their very best, but I think Northern Ireland have played well enough at home to make this competitive and Germany know a point is enough to win the Group so may not take undue risks.

Backing Germany to win those margins returns just short of odds against and it does feel the most likely outcome from this fixture.


Scotland v Slovakia Pick: England may have moved clear in this Group, but there is plenty to play for for the three teams immediately behind them with a potential Play Off berth on the line.

This is a fixture that could start to determine which of those nations will be likely to finish in 2nd spot in the Group as Scotland host Slovakia in a really important game for both nations.

With Slovenia playing in England, this is the fixture that could see the winning side move into a commanding position in 2nd spot assuming England will beat Slovenia. A Scotland win will give Gordon Strachan's men the confidence to take into Slovenia next week, but anything less than a victory would likely mean Slovakia have virtually assured themselves of 2nd spot with Malta to come at home.

It is a difficult fixture to read because Scotland have been decent at home, but are also under pressure to win the game. They likely need 2 wins to make it into 2nd place over the coming days and pushing too far forward could see Slovakia punish them on the counter attack.

However I can't ignore how strong Scotland have been at home in recent Qualifiers with only Germany having won here over the last couple of Qualifying campaigns. The points dropped against England may hurt Scotland considering they conceded the equaliser deep into injury time, but they will feel they can earn the win here.

I won't back Scotland outright, but will look to back them on the Asian Handicap here. Slovakia have lost both away games at England and Slovenia and I think they will be playing not to lose which may give Scotland the impetus to get on the front foot and find a way to win this one.

It will likely be very close, but I will back Scotland on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake if this fixture finishes in a draw.


Georgia v Wales Pick: The loss of Gareth Bale is a big blow for Chris Coleman and Wales who need at least 4 points over the next few days to earn their place in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. Winning the Group looks to be beyond them now, but 2nd place is up for grabs if they can make up for the loss of their one world-class talent.

Coleman's successes as Wales manager have come based on a solid foundation which has made them very difficult to beat. They have remained a tough team to crack during these World Cup Qualifiers as Wales are unbeaten, and they have not conceded a lot of goals.

The problems have been at the other end and that is where losing Bale is a bitter blow, but I think Wales may still have enough to beat Georgia.

Georgia will be respected having drawn with the Republic of Ireland in this Group and beating Scotland in the Euro 2016 Qualifying campaign. However this is a team who have lost to Austria and Serbia and I will be looking for Wales to show enough strength defensively which can lay the foundation for success here.

They will believe they can create chances in Georgia and I think that the Wales price is looking appealing since Bale was ruled out and there was a drift on the price for the away win. They did win both World Cup Qualifiers last month and Wales will be looking to keep their noses in front of the Republic of Ireland before hosting them next week.

It won't be an easy game for Wales, but I am looking for them to have the advantages at both ends of the field that lead to a narrow victory here.


Austria v Serbia Pick: You can only be disappointed with the way Austria have played over the last twelve months which has seen them way short of the three teams above them in the Group. Failing to hit the expectations at the last European Championship seems to have had a negative lingering effect on the squad and Austria have looked way short of what the other top teams in this Group have been able to produce.

There is an outside chance for Austria to finish in the top two, but they need some big upsets to go for them and I simply don't think that is going to happen. Playing spoiler is all Austria have left going for them, but that won't be easy against a Serbia team that have travelled so well in the Group.

The 0-1 win in Dublin last month has put Serbia in complete command of the Group and they are just a win away from guaranteeing their place in Russia next summer. This is a team that have also won in Georgia and Moldova and earned a draw in Wales, and Serbia have to be feeling confident against an Austria team that have underwhelmed since Qualifying for the Euro 2016 Finals.

Austria have been behind in eventual draws with Wales and Georgia here and Republic of Ireland won in Vienna. I think Austria may just struggle to get back into the game with Serbia if they fall behind here considering how the latter have played away from home.

The home team have simply not performed well in this Group and I think Serbia will be the latest to take advantage of their poor levels of confidence.


Turkey v Iceland Pick: With just 2 points separating the top four nations in this Group and only a couple of World Cup Qualifiers still to play, there really isn't much room for mistakes for Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine to make if they wish to be playing in Russia next June.

Croatia will head to the Ukraine in a few days time, but in this penultimate round of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers it is Turkey who host Iceland in a big game.

Anything less than a win for Turkey is likely to not be good enough to help them finish in the top two places in the Group, especially as both Turkey and Iceland will be favourites to win their final Group game. With Croatia hosting Finland on Friday, Turkey will know three points are key for them.

That won't be easy to earn, but Turkey have been playing better at home as shown when they beat Croatia 1-0 here last month. They are also facing an Iceland team who have lost half of their away World Cup Qualifiers in this Group and who were surprisingly beaten 1-0 in Finland in their last away Qualifier which may be the result that costs them a top two finish.

I have a lot of respect for how Iceland have developed their football team, but I do think they will struggle to earn a result here. Turkey have played well at home and beat Iceland 1-0 here during the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group and the confidence should be high enough in the squad to earn a similar result.

It will likely be a tight and competitive game that goes down to the wire, but I will back Turkey to earn a vital win which puts them in pole position for at least 2nd place in the Group.


Costa Rica v Honduras Pick: This is far from an easy game for Costa Rica against a desperate Honduras team who have been in better form than their recent results indicate.

Honduras have been difficult to beat and you can't ignore the fact that Costa Rica need just a point to move through to the World Cup Finals. That could mean a more cautious approach from a team who have drawn 2 of their last 3 home World Cup Qualifiers and who have met Honduras in two tight games already in 2017.

Being at home is important for Costa Rica considering Honduras have lost 3 of their last 7 away World Cup Qualifiers. They took a couple of heavy losses in that time, but this Costa Rica team have not shown they are capable of really battering teams at the moment.

Costa Rica have beaten Honduras in their last 2 meetings in the World Cup Qualifiers in Costa Rica and I do think the home team can win this one. I would keep stakes to a minimum when you think of how close the matches between these teams in 2017 have been, especially knowing a draw will suit the home team and likely the away team too.

However I think the fans can urge their team on a little more and I will back Costa Rica to win this one.


Bulgaria v France Pick: There really shouldn't be as much pressure on France as there is at the moment after they somehow failed to beat Luxembourg at home last month. That result has opened the door for Sweden to potentially finish above them in the Group, although both France and Sweden have a very tough away Qualifier still to play.

Sweden's away Qualifier against the Netherlands may determine who finishes higher in the Group in a few days time, but France's difficult trip comes on Saturday as they head to Bulgaria. While Bulgaria are unlikely to finish in the top two places in the Group, they have remained in touch with the leaders thanks to winning all 4 home World Cup Qualifiers they have played in this Group.

That makes Bulgaria a team that deserves respect, especially as France have not scored a lot of away goals. They have 5 in their 4 away Qualifiers in this Group and it does make me feel that the home team are getting too much of a head-start on the Asian Handicap.

Visiting Bulgaria has been very difficult for France over the years with 6 previous visits ending in 5 defeats and a draw. A draw may not be the worst result for France with a home game against Belarus to come, but they will want to avoid the pressurised atmosphere that would bring by finding a way to the three points here.

It will be far from easy and I think Bulgaria deserves full respect for the way they have played in the Group. Even a narrow France win would see Bulgaria return as a winner on the Asian Handicap, but I do think they are good enough to earn a positive result at home and I will back Bulgaria with the start.


Switzerland v Hungary Pick: This Group looks like it will come down to the Portugal vs Switzerland fixture to come next week, but Switzerland will know all the pressure will be on the home team if they can win this one. Overall goal difference is leaning towards Portugal, but a Switzerland win on Saturday will mean they can afford a draw to finish top of the Group.

That is for another day and Switzerland have to be focused on the three points on offer in this penultimate World Cup Qualifier. They are facing a team who are in 3rd place in the Group, but Switzerland and Portugal have been very much clear of the rest of the teams in the section.

Switzerland have won all 4 home World Cup Qualifiers which means they have won 8 home Qualifiers in a row and have kept clean sheets in 7 of those games. Hungary have failed to score in 3 of 4 away Qualifiers in the Group and have lost 3-0 at Portugal and 1-0 at Andorra in their last couple of away Qualifiers.

The last two times Switzerland have hosted Hungary have also led to home wins with clean sheets and the stats are all pointing to Switzerland winning with a clean sheet in this one too.

The defensive foundation has been key for Switzerland through this Group and Hungary have scored almost half of their goals in the Group against bottom placed Latvia. The struggles away from home in front of goal can't be ignored and I will look for Switzerland to win to nil.

MY PICKS: Syria-Australia Draw @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Poland - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Germany to Win by 1 or 2 Goals @ 1.94 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Scotland - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serbia @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Turkey @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Costa Rica @ 1.80 bet365 (1 Unit)
Bulgaria + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet365 (2 Units)
Switzerland Win to Nil @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)