Weekend Football Picks 2018 (October 5-7)

The last Premier League round of fixtures prior to the next international break will take place from Friday across Sunday and it is a big weekend with the top two facing one another to conclude the fixtures this weekend.

It is also a big weekend for Jose Mourinho and Manchester United who need a positive result just to ease some of the tension around Old Trafford. I do think there will be a change in management sooner rather than later with the way the situation has developed at Manchester United, but that whole process could be sped up if Manchester United were to lose to Newcastle United.

Even dropping points won't be tolerated by the fans who have just shown some dissatisfaction with the football at the end of the goalless draw with Valencia.

I will have a short piece about Manchester United next week with my thoughts on how things are developing and the surprising choice I would make as manager if Jose Mourinho is moved on.


This weekend we have a Friday Night Football feature from the Premier League and I am looking to get October into a good position after back to back months with a positive return.

You can read my full Picks from the Premier League below.


Brighton v West Ham United Pick: The Premier League games last weekend did not feature a lot of goals but this opening game could potentially set the trend for the next round of games.

Both Brighton and West Ham United will have circled games like this one as important to win if they want to reach their goals for the season and I do think both sets of players will believe they can win this one.

The form guide is pointing to West Ham United who have turned a corner in their season with 3 wins from their last 4 games in all competitions. They have started to score plenty of goals and Manuel Pellegrini has got the squad playing some decent football.

West Ham United will certainly feel they can expose some holes in the Brighton defence which has been evident all season. The home side have conceded at least twice in every game at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League and that does not bode well when you think of the chances that West Ham United have begun to create.

On the other hand Brighton have been pretty good going forward and they are creating chances themselves. They will be much more proactive in this one than they were at Manchester City last weekend and Brighton also have the confidence of beating West Ham United in both Premier League games last season.

The chances being created by both clubs suggest we are going to see goals in this fixture and that is where I am going with this selection. I did consider to simply back both teams to score, but last season both League games produced at least three goals and the attacking football played by both Brighton and West Ham United suggests we can reach that number again.

At odds against I will pick at least three goals to be scored in this one with both teams creating enough to reach that number.


Burnley v Huddersfield Town Pick: They may have had to ride some luck last week and ask for a decent game from Joe Hart, but Burnley won't care now they have the three points secured from their trip to Cardiff City. Winning back to back Premier League games is huge for Sean Dyche and his players who had sunk into the bottom three after a tough start to the campaign.

Making it three in a row would move Burnley onto 10 points which would be a reasonable place to be going into the second international break of the season.

They are favoured to do that against a Huddersfield Town who look short of quality and confidence to compete at the Premier League level. A strong start to the 2017/18 season meant Huddersfield Town had the points in the bank to avoid relegation last time around, but they have been in relatively poor form throughout the 2018 calendar year and I do fear for them.

The lack of goals in the squad is a real concern, but you can't completely rule Huddersfield Town out this weekend.

Why? Well all 3 League goals have been scored away from home this season and they have led in their last 2 away Premier League games. Burnley are not a team who are likely to blow others away regularly, despite what they did to Bournemouth, and so conceding a goal would make this a tough game to win especially if they fall behind.

Huddersfield Town have also drawn 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games going back to last season and they have scored in 4 straight which means they need to be respected.

In saying that I do think Burnley are playing with more confidence and they should be able to edge to the win. Losing James Tarkowski is a blow, but Burnley can battle to the three points in this important game although my respect for Huddersfield Town's away performances means I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake if the game finishes in a draw.


Crystal Palace v Wolves Pick: There is so much to admire about Wolves beginning with the style of football they have produced and the amount of chances they create in games. Better composure in the final third would have seen Wolves perhaps win at Manchester United and they have shown they are more than capable of reaching and perhaps exceeding the top ten prediction many had for the club before the season began.

This is a tough away trip for Wolves who are still looking for a little more consistency at the Premier League level, but they have shown enough to think they can earn the victory at Selhurst Park.

Crystal Palace is never an easy place to visit, but there has been some sort of fall out between the 'ultras' and the club and that has seen the atmosphere not reach the level of past years. I am not sure that is the main reason Crystal Palace have yet to win a Premier League game here, but the bigger factor may be scoring enough goals as they search for the first in the League at home.

For all the endeavour and quality that Crystal Palace clearly possess, I do think they are struggling to create enough chances. They should have beaten Newcastle United here in their last League game at Selhurst Park, but Crystal Palace have looked short of goals in other games while not defending as well as they would have liked.

I do think the home team will create chances against Wolves, but I also respect how well the latter have been playing. Wolves don't offer a lot of opportunities against them and they have shown there is a bite going forward which has me leaning towards the visitors.

Essentially the Asian Handicap is a 'Draw No Bet' market and I will look at getting behind Wolves with the knowledge the draw will return the stake.


Leicester City v Everton Pick: There have been some very positive signs for both Leicester City and Everton over the last month since the last international break and both will want to head into the next one with the momentum behind them.

This could be a decent game of football on Saturday especially as Everton tend to try and play attacking football under Marco Silva which does leave spaces to be attacked. Those are the kind of spaces Leicester City enjoy, especially if Jamie Vardy is passed fit as expected, and I think it makes for an interesting fixture.

You have to like the way Leicester City have played in the last couple of weeks with strong wins and performances against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United. Granted both opponents have yet to win this season and are in the bottom three, but the chances created will make the fans believe Claude Puel is getting the best out of his squad.

Everton crushed Fulham last weekend, but they had been a little unfortunate in losses prior to that and I do think they are much more dangerous with Richarlison back in the line up. They can cause problems for a Leicester City team who have conceded in their last couple of home Premier League games, but I do have to worry about the number of goals Everton have been conceding.

The visitors have conceded at least twice in each of their last 4 away Premier League games and also conceded three times to West Ham United at home last month. With that amount of goals being conceded it is hard to have faith in Everton to do enough to earn a result here and I am going to back Leicester City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City Pick: There will be a few teams who are beaten by Barcelona at home in the manner Tottenham Hotspur were on Wednesday, but it was always going to be an even tougher ask for the home team with the injuries scattered around the squad.

A couple of those could potentially clear up this weekend, but even if they don't you would think facing Cardiff City is a considerably 'easier' task than facing Barcelona.

Neil Warnock has admitted his squad have not really been prepared for the step up in level to the Premier League having surprisingly earned promotion from the Championship. That doesn't mean the manager has given up on causing another surprise by keeping Cardiff City in the top flight, but Warnock hasn't had a lot of success in his career in doing that.

This team does look short of the level needed to compete in the Premier League and Cardiff City have to rely on outworking their opponents and also hoping for an off day from them. They will be motivated by playing at Wembley Stadium, but Cardiff City have struggled to contain the best teams they have faced and Tottenham Hotspur are playing at a decent enough level of late.

Tottenham Hotspur have won back to back Premier League games and they have created solid chances in those while Harry Kane looks to be ready for another good goal-scoring run. With the opportunities that Cardiff City have allowed the top teams they have faced to create, I do think Spurs can win this fixture by a couple of goals at least.


Watford v Bournemouth Pick: Two of the more surprising teams through the first two months of the 2018/19 season will meet on Saturday and it looks like a match that could be very enjoyable for the fans attending Vicarage Road.

Watford come into the weekend in 6th place and Bournemouth are 7th, but the form guide is pointing to the away team. While Watford have yet to win between the last international break and the one upcoming, Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 4 games and so I imagine the away team will have their backers as the underdog.

However the results alone don't tell the full story as Watford have played well enough to have gotten much more than they have in recent matches. They could easily have won at Arsenal last weekend and Watford continue to create enough chances to be given respect by any team they face at the moment.

The Bournemouth defending remains inconsistent to say the least so I do think Watford will create chances in this fixture and they will just have to show the composure that was lacking last weekend to make sure they can score some goals.

On the other side I also feel Bournemouth have played well enough to score here even if they have not managed to do that in their last 2 away games in the Premier League. The Cherries have had their chances in both games at Chelsea and Burnley and I don't think you can ignore the fact that the last 2 games between these teams at Vicarage Road have both ended 2-2.

There should certainly be enough chances for both teams to get close to that number of goals again and I am going to back at least three to be shared out.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: It has not been much fun being a Manchester United fan over the last couple of weeks as the side have lurched from one poor result to another. The football has been far from inspiring and the constant battles between the manager and the players has worn the fans down.

On Tuesday the fans seemed to be voicing more discontent as they booed off Manchester United following the goalless draw with Valencia in the Champions League. The second half was much better than the first, but there does seem to be a lack of conviction or a real game plan in the final third.

It has meant there has been an almost desperate feel to some of the attacking play, but Manchester United can bounce back prior to the two week international break by winning this fixture. As poor as the results have been, Manchester United have at least shown some life compared with Newcastle United who have been in miserable form in the 2018/19 season.

Rafa Benitez has not been given a real chance to purchase the players he would like and at the moment he is struggling to get more out of what is a limited squad. The lack of goals is a real problem for Newcastle United to try and resolve and this is a not a team who create a lot of chances.

There is no love lost between Benitez and Jose Mourinho so there is that tension at play, but this shouldn't be a fair fight with Mourinho being able to call on much better players than Benitez. The latter will look to make life as difficult as possible by organising his Newcastle United team into two banks of four, but a real concern for the fans has to be the poor defensive performances produced so far.

With the way Manchester United are playing this is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but I think they will be able to do enough in the final third to break down this Newcastle United team who have conceded too many goals in recent games. It is a risky play because Manchester United haven't been very good over the last month, and they have not won at Old Trafford since early August, but this may be the ideal opponent to bounce back against and I will back the hosts to be too strong.


Fulham v Arsenal Pick: The long away trips in the Europa League can play havoc with preparations for the next Premier League game and Arsenal will be playing in the early Sunday slot which makes it that much tougher for them.

They were able to rest some key players in the win over Qarabag, but a strong squad travelled and it will be a big ask of them to win at Fulham.

The home team have been far from consistent in the 2018/19 season as Fulham have returned to the Premier League. There have been some good performances but Fulham have looked very poor defensively and that has to be an issue against an Arsenal team who have scored at least twice in 4 straight away games in all competitions.

However Arsenal have really not been as strong defensively as their 3 clean sheets in the last 4 games would suggest. Teams have created some very promising chances against Arsenal but they have not shown the composure in front of goal to finish those off, but I am not so concerned about Fulham being unable to take their chances if they are presented in this Premier League game.

It is no surprise to me the layers have shortened the price of seeing at least three goals in this one and even the option of picking four or more goals to be scored is a much shorter price than you may expect. The layers aren't far wrong to do that though with both teams showing real vulnerability defensively that can be exploited by the other.

I am expecting goals with that in mind and I think Fulham can definitely push Arsenal as much as Cardiff City did last month. I will look for at least four to be shared out in this early live televised game on Sunday.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Like I have said about Arsenal, playing in the Europa League on a Thursday and in the Premier League on a Sunday has proven to be a tough experience for English clubs in recent years.

The positive for Chelsea is their last Europa League game was played at Stamford Bridge and they have also managed to give some players a rest which should mean they are prepared for their trip to Southampton.

The layers are very much expecting a Chelsea win, but I don't think it will be plain-sailing on the south coast with Southampton having plenty of energy in the final third and looking pretty effective going forward. There is a confidence issue at St Mary's which has to be addressed by Mark Hughes as Southampton have won 1 of their last 14 Premier League games here and I do think nervousness does affect the players highlighted most in their 2-2 draw with Brighton in a game they had led 2-0.

Last season Southampton also blew a 2-0 lead against a Chelsea team that had looked disinterested in the last few weeks of the Premier League season and that means Chelsea have won on their last 3 visits to this ground.

It is all about the mentality of the Southampton players and whether they can perform with a little bit more conviction in front of their own fans, but even then it is a tough ask for them to beat a Chelsea team who are in decent form.

Chelsea may not have won their last 2 Premier League games, but they have created enough chances to do that and Eden Hazard looks to be in wonderful form. It was actually a Hazard miss against Liverpool that left them vulnerable to the late Daniel Sturridge strike eight days ago, but Chelsea have looked very threatening when they have come forward.

I don't believe the home team are good enough defensively to contain that threat either and I fancy Chelsea to win here. However I do think they will need to score at least twice to do that with Southampton producing some decent football in the final third themselves and so backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals is my selection.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League is about to go on a two week hiatus but they might be saving the best game of the weekend until last with the top two meeting at Anfield.

Unsurprisingly the layers are not having an easy time picking a favourite although I have to admit I thought it would be Manchester City going in as the marginal shorter price considering the current form of the two teams.

However you can't dismiss the fact that Liverpool have beaten Manchester City 3 times in a row and also won the last 6 matches between them at Anfield. That has to be factored into the price and so it is the slightly out of form Liverpool who come in as the one the layers believe will be top of the League come the end of the weekend.

I am really struggling to pick the winner- I can make a case for both with Liverpool being very strong at home and their dominance over Manchester City in the 2018 calendar year, while Manchester City look to be in the better overall form and have been creating chances for fun in recent games.

Something that has surprised me is the slight lack of composure both Liverpool and Manchester City have shown in the final third despite the amount of goals they have been scoring. Both teams have been guilty of some glaring misses over the last couple of weeks and even the managers have pointed out that they want more from their players.

Goals have flowed when these teams have met and I would be surprised if we didn't see at least three again on Sunday. All 4 matches between these teams hit that number last season and half of those saw at least five goals shared out by the teams including a crazy 4-3 win for Liverpool in the Premier League.

Over the years these teams have combined for plenty of goals when facing each other and the style both managers employ suggest there will be plenty of chances in this one too. Backing at least three goals to be shared out might not be the most appealing price, but I do fancy that very much in this one.

However I think there is enough of a reason to back at least one more goal being shared out on Sunday. Liverpool have already beaten Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 here in the Champions League and Manchester City have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games overall.

The home team will always create chances against the defensive shape Manchester City employ and it looks a big price to see four or more goals on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Brighton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

October Update: 10-7-1, + 3.66 Units (36 Units Staked, + 10.17% Yield)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (October 5-7)

Over the next few days the final World Cup Qualifiers in the Groups around the world are being played before the Play Offs in November will determine which teams are making up the next World Cup Finals.

I am going to split up the picks from the two rounds of fixtures with the picks from the penultimate fixtures placed in this thread for games to be played from Thursday through to Saturday.

The final set of World Cup Qualifiers will be placed in a thread I should have ready to go on Saturday evening which will cover games that are played from Sunday through to the following Wednesday.

I've written a short piece about Manchester United and what has been a strong start to the season which you can read here.


Syria v Australia Pick: Asia have already provided four representatives for the World Cup Finals next summer, but surprisingly Australia were not one of them. They have not played well in the Qualifiers and that means Australia have to negotiate a Play Off in the Asian Qualifiers before facing the team who will end up 4th in the CONCACAF Confederation which may easily be the United States.

It won't be easy for Australia who would have hoped they could have finished in the automatic Qualification spots on offer.

They are facing a team in Syria who are playing with 'house money' which does make them dangerous, but having to deal with a two Legged tie without any home advantage is difficult. Despite having to travel to host home games, Syria are unbeaten in 8 games and they have won 5 of those.

Syria ending up drawing 3 of their 5 'home' Qualifiers in the final Round and it has to be said that Australia's poor away form is why they were unable to finish higher than 3rd in their own Group. Missing out on a top two berth on goal difference can be directly linked to failing to win any of their last 4 away Qualifiers and 3 of those ended in draws.

Draws were what hurt Australia, but a draw here before the home Leg in Sydney next week might not be the worst result for the favourites in this Play Off Qualifier. This does feel like it will be a tight First Leg and the draw has been a big result when these two teams have been playing in the World Cup Qualifiers and that looks a real player here too.

I can't have Australia as odds on to win this First Leg with their away struggles in recent months and the draw does look a big price here. It is certainly worth a small interest.


Armenia v Poland Pick: The 4-0 loss to Denmark last month has just put some pressure on Poland in their bid to finish top of the Group, although they are still in a position of strength. It does mean Poland can't afford to drop more points with a home game against Montenegro to come, and they should have enough to do that in Armenia.

This has proven to be a tough place for Poland to visit over the years with a couple of previous Qualifiers here ending 1-1 and 1-0 to Armenia. They can't have that happen again and this is a Poland team that have looked stronger than the one that would have played here ten years ago.

Armenia have also been guilty of folding in matches recently as shown by the couple of heavy home losses they have had in the Qualifiers. The last fixture saw Armenia go down 1-4 at home against Denmark and they have conceded at least three times in 4 losses in their last 8 home Qualifiers.

The side also conceded four times in a defeat in Montenegro in June and that has to be a concern when considering Poland had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away Qualifiers before their thumping in Denmark.

Poland are not the easiest side to trust away from home, but they have been better in their last couple of Qualifying campaigns. They look like they have goals in the squad which makes them dangerous and I think they can record a big win in Armenia that will put Poland on the brink of confirming their place in Russia for the World Cup Finals next June.

If Armenia lose heart as they have in heavy home losses to Romania and Denmark, Poland should be able to take advantage and I will look for them to cover a big Asian Handicap.


England v Slovenia Pick: There simply isn't the same level of expectation for England heading towards a major international tournament as there has been over the years and that might work out well for Gareth Southgate. He will be looking for England to finish this Group on a high and try and improve the Ranking which could improve Seeding for the World Cup Finals assuming England will be playing there next summer.

It would need a couple of big upsets for England to miss out from automatic Qualification for the Finals, and in all honesty they should be securing their spot at the end of this round of fixtures.

Slovenia will have something to say about that as they try to at least finish 2nd in the Group and earn a Play Off berth. However this is a team who have not travelled as well as they would have liked and losing back to back games to Slovakia and Scotland by the same 1-0 scoreline has hurt Slovenia.

Now they have to earn some kind of result at Wembley where England have won 13 home Qualifiers and have scored at least twice in each of those wins. With Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford in the form they have displayed for their club sides, it would perhaps be a bigger surprise if England don't reach that number of goals again.

I fully expect England to be too strong for Slovenia in this one and confirm their spot in the World Cup Finals. Slovenia will be hoping they are still alive in the Group depending on what has happened in the game between Scotland and Slovakia being played at the same time, but I don't think they will be able to help themselves in this World Cup Qualifier and I will back England to win by a couple of goals on the evening.


Northern Ireland v Germany Pick: Playing at Windsor Park has become a real challenge for any visiting team and Northern Ireland have used that as the foundation for their performance in the Group. In fact it has been a key to their successes over the last few years which have enhanced the reputation of manager Michael O'Neill who sounds very committed to the national team.

Getting Northern Ireland to the World Cup Finals would be a huge achievement for O'Neill, but it does mean they have to negotiate a Play Off as Germany have dominated this Group. A win will give Northern Ireland an outside chance of finishing above Germany, but the focus has to be to get ready for the Play Off they are likely to face next month.

Northern Ireland have been very good at home which should give Germany a challenge to make it 9 wins out of 9 in the Group. However Germany have won in Czech Republic and Norway already in the section and they have scored plenty of goals which has been factored in by the layers who do make them big favourites to win here.

That is the most likely result, but Northern Ireland's performances have to be respected. They have made it hard for Germany in the two matches against one another over the last sixteen months even if both have resulted in German wins, while you can't forget that Germany were beaten at the Republic of Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers.

Ultimately I do think Germany will find a way to win here and I think they are worth backing to win by a one goal or two goal margin. They do have the quality to win by a wider margin if at their very best, but I think Northern Ireland have played well enough at home to make this competitive and Germany know a point is enough to win the Group so may not take undue risks.

Backing Germany to win those margins returns just short of odds against and it does feel the most likely outcome from this fixture.


Scotland v Slovakia Pick: England may have moved clear in this Group, but there is plenty to play for for the three teams immediately behind them with a potential Play Off berth on the line.

This is a fixture that could start to determine which of those nations will be likely to finish in 2nd spot in the Group as Scotland host Slovakia in a really important game for both nations.

With Slovenia playing in England, this is the fixture that could see the winning side move into a commanding position in 2nd spot assuming England will beat Slovenia. A Scotland win will give Gordon Strachan's men the confidence to take into Slovenia next week, but anything less than a victory would likely mean Slovakia have virtually assured themselves of 2nd spot with Malta to come at home.

It is a difficult fixture to read because Scotland have been decent at home, but are also under pressure to win the game. They likely need 2 wins to make it into 2nd place over the coming days and pushing too far forward could see Slovakia punish them on the counter attack.

However I can't ignore how strong Scotland have been at home in recent Qualifiers with only Germany having won here over the last couple of Qualifying campaigns. The points dropped against England may hurt Scotland considering they conceded the equaliser deep into injury time, but they will feel they can earn the win here.

I won't back Scotland outright, but will look to back them on the Asian Handicap here. Slovakia have lost both away games at England and Slovenia and I think they will be playing not to lose which may give Scotland the impetus to get on the front foot and find a way to win this one.

It will likely be very close, but I will back Scotland on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake if this fixture finishes in a draw.


Georgia v Wales Pick: The loss of Gareth Bale is a big blow for Chris Coleman and Wales who need at least 4 points over the next few days to earn their place in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. Winning the Group looks to be beyond them now, but 2nd place is up for grabs if they can make up for the loss of their one world-class talent.

Coleman's successes as Wales manager have come based on a solid foundation which has made them very difficult to beat. They have remained a tough team to crack during these World Cup Qualifiers as Wales are unbeaten, and they have not conceded a lot of goals.

The problems have been at the other end and that is where losing Bale is a bitter blow, but I think Wales may still have enough to beat Georgia.

Georgia will be respected having drawn with the Republic of Ireland in this Group and beating Scotland in the Euro 2016 Qualifying campaign. However this is a team who have lost to Austria and Serbia and I will be looking for Wales to show enough strength defensively which can lay the foundation for success here.

They will believe they can create chances in Georgia and I think that the Wales price is looking appealing since Bale was ruled out and there was a drift on the price for the away win. They did win both World Cup Qualifiers last month and Wales will be looking to keep their noses in front of the Republic of Ireland before hosting them next week.

It won't be an easy game for Wales, but I am looking for them to have the advantages at both ends of the field that lead to a narrow victory here.


Austria v Serbia Pick: You can only be disappointed with the way Austria have played over the last twelve months which has seen them way short of the three teams above them in the Group. Failing to hit the expectations at the last European Championship seems to have had a negative lingering effect on the squad and Austria have looked way short of what the other top teams in this Group have been able to produce.

There is an outside chance for Austria to finish in the top two, but they need some big upsets to go for them and I simply don't think that is going to happen. Playing spoiler is all Austria have left going for them, but that won't be easy against a Serbia team that have travelled so well in the Group.

The 0-1 win in Dublin last month has put Serbia in complete command of the Group and they are just a win away from guaranteeing their place in Russia next summer. This is a team that have also won in Georgia and Moldova and earned a draw in Wales, and Serbia have to be feeling confident against an Austria team that have underwhelmed since Qualifying for the Euro 2016 Finals.

Austria have been behind in eventual draws with Wales and Georgia here and Republic of Ireland won in Vienna. I think Austria may just struggle to get back into the game with Serbia if they fall behind here considering how the latter have played away from home.

The home team have simply not performed well in this Group and I think Serbia will be the latest to take advantage of their poor levels of confidence.


Turkey v Iceland Pick: With just 2 points separating the top four nations in this Group and only a couple of World Cup Qualifiers still to play, there really isn't much room for mistakes for Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine to make if they wish to be playing in Russia next June.

Croatia will head to the Ukraine in a few days time, but in this penultimate round of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers it is Turkey who host Iceland in a big game.

Anything less than a win for Turkey is likely to not be good enough to help them finish in the top two places in the Group, especially as both Turkey and Iceland will be favourites to win their final Group game. With Croatia hosting Finland on Friday, Turkey will know three points are key for them.

That won't be easy to earn, but Turkey have been playing better at home as shown when they beat Croatia 1-0 here last month. They are also facing an Iceland team who have lost half of their away World Cup Qualifiers in this Group and who were surprisingly beaten 1-0 in Finland in their last away Qualifier which may be the result that costs them a top two finish.

I have a lot of respect for how Iceland have developed their football team, but I do think they will struggle to earn a result here. Turkey have played well at home and beat Iceland 1-0 here during the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group and the confidence should be high enough in the squad to earn a similar result.

It will likely be a tight and competitive game that goes down to the wire, but I will back Turkey to earn a vital win which puts them in pole position for at least 2nd place in the Group.


Costa Rica v Honduras Pick: This is far from an easy game for Costa Rica against a desperate Honduras team who have been in better form than their recent results indicate.

Honduras have been difficult to beat and you can't ignore the fact that Costa Rica need just a point to move through to the World Cup Finals. That could mean a more cautious approach from a team who have drawn 2 of their last 3 home World Cup Qualifiers and who have met Honduras in two tight games already in 2017.

Being at home is important for Costa Rica considering Honduras have lost 3 of their last 7 away World Cup Qualifiers. They took a couple of heavy losses in that time, but this Costa Rica team have not shown they are capable of really battering teams at the moment.

Costa Rica have beaten Honduras in their last 2 meetings in the World Cup Qualifiers in Costa Rica and I do think the home team can win this one. I would keep stakes to a minimum when you think of how close the matches between these teams in 2017 have been, especially knowing a draw will suit the home team and likely the away team too.

However I think the fans can urge their team on a little more and I will back Costa Rica to win this one.


Bulgaria v France Pick: There really shouldn't be as much pressure on France as there is at the moment after they somehow failed to beat Luxembourg at home last month. That result has opened the door for Sweden to potentially finish above them in the Group, although both France and Sweden have a very tough away Qualifier still to play.

Sweden's away Qualifier against the Netherlands may determine who finishes higher in the Group in a few days time, but France's difficult trip comes on Saturday as they head to Bulgaria. While Bulgaria are unlikely to finish in the top two places in the Group, they have remained in touch with the leaders thanks to winning all 4 home World Cup Qualifiers they have played in this Group.

That makes Bulgaria a team that deserves respect, especially as France have not scored a lot of away goals. They have 5 in their 4 away Qualifiers in this Group and it does make me feel that the home team are getting too much of a head-start on the Asian Handicap.

Visiting Bulgaria has been very difficult for France over the years with 6 previous visits ending in 5 defeats and a draw. A draw may not be the worst result for France with a home game against Belarus to come, but they will want to avoid the pressurised atmosphere that would bring by finding a way to the three points here.

It will be far from easy and I think Bulgaria deserves full respect for the way they have played in the Group. Even a narrow France win would see Bulgaria return as a winner on the Asian Handicap, but I do think they are good enough to earn a positive result at home and I will back Bulgaria with the start.


Switzerland v Hungary Pick: This Group looks like it will come down to the Portugal vs Switzerland fixture to come next week, but Switzerland will know all the pressure will be on the home team if they can win this one. Overall goal difference is leaning towards Portugal, but a Switzerland win on Saturday will mean they can afford a draw to finish top of the Group.

That is for another day and Switzerland have to be focused on the three points on offer in this penultimate World Cup Qualifier. They are facing a team who are in 3rd place in the Group, but Switzerland and Portugal have been very much clear of the rest of the teams in the section.

Switzerland have won all 4 home World Cup Qualifiers which means they have won 8 home Qualifiers in a row and have kept clean sheets in 7 of those games. Hungary have failed to score in 3 of 4 away Qualifiers in the Group and have lost 3-0 at Portugal and 1-0 at Andorra in their last couple of away Qualifiers.

The last two times Switzerland have hosted Hungary have also led to home wins with clean sheets and the stats are all pointing to Switzerland winning with a clean sheet in this one too.

The defensive foundation has been key for Switzerland through this Group and Hungary have scored almost half of their goals in the Group against bottom placed Latvia. The struggles away from home in front of goal can't be ignored and I will look for Switzerland to win to nil.

MY PICKS: Syria-Australia Draw @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Poland - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Germany to Win by 1 or 2 Goals @ 1.94 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Scotland - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serbia @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Turkey @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Costa Rica @ 1.80 bet365 (1 Unit)
Bulgaria + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet365 (2 Units)
Switzerland Win to Nil @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)