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Showing posts with label Roland Garros. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roland Garros. Show all posts

Saturday, 7 June 2025

French Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 8th June)

The way the last week of the French Open has played out, it is making my decision earlier in the tournament to shut things down look a very good one.

Matches that have swung wildly are great for the fans, but not so much for the selections and it felt like a weird tournament just a few days into the event.

The last of the French Open matches will be played on Sunday before all attention turns to the relatively short grass court season and the build towards Wimbledon. It should be a really good Men's Final between two players who may be competing in many more Grand Slam Finals against one another over the coming years and I don't think anyone would be surprised if we see Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner going at it again either at Wimbledon or the US Open later this season.


Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz over 39.5 games: This is the Men's Final at Roland Garros that most would have wanted to see as the World Number 1 takes on the defending Champion.

In something of a surprise, we have not really had the Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz all that often at Grand Slam events, despite most of the fans believing this is the rivalry that will move forward at the end of the Big Four era.

This will be the fourth time the pair will meet at a Grand Slam and only the second time since the 2022 US Open, which again is a big, big surprise. The last time Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz met at a Grand Slam was right here in Paris twelve months ago as the latter got the better of the Italian in a five set Semi Final on his way to winning the title here.

Jannik Sinner may be the World Number 1, but he has lost eight of the twelve previous matches against Carlos Alcaraz- they had split the first four matches, but Alcaraz has begun to take control of the rivalry with four wins in a row, which includes beating Sinner at the Rome Masters last month.

That may give Carlos Alcaraz the mental advantage, although he is going to have to play with a little more consistency than he did in the Semi Final win over Lorenzo Musetti. He will need to serve well to try and move into control in the rallies, and Carlos Alcaraz can take some encouragement from the way Novak Djokovic was able to use his serve against Jannik Sinner in the Semi Final two days ago.

The Spaniard has been able to produce some decent serving numbers against Sinner in their previous matches, no matter the surface on which they have played, but it has not been a dominant shot. There are likely to be moments when the top Seed is able to get his teeth into the return games, which will not surprise anyone, but Sinner only created 2 Break Points in the match in Rome.

In that match, Jannik Sinner only faced 3 Break Points of his own, but was broken twice and he is going to need to get a bit more out of his serve. His numbers in this tournament have been decent, but Sinner has not been able to use his serve as he would have liked in matches against Carlos Alcaraz.

After saying all that, the overriding feeling is that this is going to be a competitive Men's Final and one that could go pretty long.

The last two Grand Slam matches between the players have both needed the fifth set to determine the winner and Carlos Alcaraz had to go five sets to win the French Open in 2024.

Backing a winner is tough, although the edge may be with the defending Champion.

The layers are finding it difficult to separate them, which is unsurprising, and the only disappointment for the fans is if the players are not able to both push this into a very competitive, long Final.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 39.5 Games

French Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 7th June)

The French Open comes to a conclusion this weekend and we should have two quality Finals to watch, beginning with the Women's Final on Saturday.


Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Coco Gauff: Moving into the World Number 1 spot should have been an indicator as to who is the best WTA player in the world, but there have still be some vulnerabilities around Aryna Sabalenka. She has won Grand Slam titles, but has perhaps not been the kind of dominant Champion that most would associate with the clear top player in the world.

Things may be changing after her run at Roland Garros, although Aryna Sabalenka has to get over the line to prove the point.

She reached the Australian Open Final earlier this season, but was upset by an American in that Final and Aryna Sabalenka will be much more wary of the abilities of Coco Gauff compared with Madison Keys.

They are different players- Keys is a big hitter capable of taking the ball away from any opponent she faces, while Gauff has a much more all around tennis style. However, it is a style that has seen Coco Gauff beat Aryna Sabalenka in a Grand Slam Final before and she is playing with plenty of confidence having beaten the last home hope in the Semi Final.

Coco Gauff will know that this is a much tougher challenge compared with the Semi Final, but she will be confident in the way she is playing. She will need to serve more effectively to just contain the threat that is going to be coming from the other side of the net, but the Coco Gauff movement and ability to get the ball back into the court when seemingly beyond most players can be hugely effective tools on the clay courts.

Throughout the French Open, Coco Gauff has been able to get into return games and put immense pressure on her opponents, and that is something she will feel she can do even against a top server like Aryna Sabalenka. She will have taken some encouragement from the way Iga Swiatek was able to create pressure on the Sabalenka serve, although the win over the three time defending Champion will certainly give the World Number 1 all of the confidence she needs.

As good as Aryna Sabalenka is, there are still some vulnerabilities about her, especially from a mental point of view.

If Coco Gauff can keep the sets competitive, Aryna Sabalenka could be put under some pressure and she has had a number of disappointing results late in Grand Slam events.

However, Aryna Sabalenka has won four of the last six matches against Coco Gauff and that can be a factor.

The serve has ended up being a key weapon in those matches and Aryna Sabalenka may have that edge again in this Women's Final to round out the second Grand Slam of the season. It is unlikely to be a match that doesn't have some swings and roundabouts, especially at the French Open in 2025, but the repeat of the Madrid Final may end up with the same winner and with a similar margin, which would be good enough to cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games

Wednesday, 4 June 2025

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 5th June)

The Grand Slam events can see players create some magical stories, but the Lois Boisson one at Roland Garros is historic.

Emma Raducanu's success at the US Open in 2021 was an incredible story with the Qualifier coming through and winning the tournament, but it can be argued that Boisson's run is even more impressive.

For the first time in this event, Lois Boisson will be playing on consecutive days and it will be interesting to see how she continues to handle the increasing pressure, although the soon to be top 70 Ranked player may feel she has 'nothing to lose'.

It is the women Semi Final matches that will take centre stage in Paris on Day 12 of the tournament and both are going to be intriguing matches.

My thoughts on those matches can be read below as the first of the two Singles Finals at the French Open are set by the end of Thursday's action.


Iga Swiatek v Aryna Sabalenka: The only disappointment some tennis fans may feel is that this is a Semi Final rather than the Final when the World Number 1 takes on the three time defending French Open Champion.

For the first time in a long time, Iga Swiatek entered the tournament here in Paris with plenty of doubters around her after a mixed clay court season. Her World Ranking is in danger of suffering another drop and only holding onto her crown as the Queen of Clay would see Swiatek end the tournament as a top four Ranked player.

It has been tough.

However, Iga Swiatek has looked pretty comfortable back on the red dirt in the French capital and it has felt like her Fourth Round win over Elena Rybakina has just reminded the Pole about her own abilities. Winning that in the manner she did will have provided Iga Swiatek with a shot of confidence and belief and this is a Semi Final she can win.

Opposing Aryna Sabalenka is dangerous with the World Number 1 looking capable of winning Grand Slam titles on any surface, but who has yet to actually prove that by doing so at either the French Open or Wimbledon. That means there is still something to show as far as the Belarusian is concerned and this match up has still been a tough one for Aryna Sabalenka.

She did snap a three match losing run to Iga Swiatek by beating her in Cincinnati last year, but this is going to be played on the clay and Aryna Sabalenka has only won one of the previous six against the Pole on this surface.

Last year they had a very close match in Madrid that was won by Iga Swiatek and that was followed by a more comfortable win for the dominant clay courter in Rome.

There are more doubts around this Semi Final simply because of the form that both were showing prior to the start of the French Open, but the runs produced by both at the tournament suggests there is not much between them now.

Aryna Sabalenka has to take a huge amount from the Fourth Round performance of Elena Rybakina and that is going to be the blueprint she looks to follow. If she can just maintain that for a little longer than Rybakina did, Aryna Sabalenka could win this match, but we have seen the World Number 1 come up short at around this stage of multiple Grand Slams previously.

Ultimately she is going to have to break through some of the aura that Iga Swiatek has continued to hold on the clay courts and it can be tough for Aryna Sabalenka to do that.

The last couple of Rounds have been a bit more stressful for Aryna Sabalenka, even if she is still playing at a strong level, but this is a significant test for her. She will have to serve well and there is little doubt that Iga Swiatek is playing better than expected when this tournament began.

When all is said and done, it is difficult to see Iga Swiatek as the underdog in the Semi Final and it may be the defending Champion's serve that proves to be slightly more effective on the day.


Lois Boisson + 5.5 games v Coco Gauff: On paper you have to feel that there can only be one winner, but tennis in Paris is played on clay and Lois Boisson is riding a momentum that could be very, very difficult to stop.

She will soon be entering the top 70 of the World Rankings, but there had been nothing to suggest the French Wild Card was going to be having a tournament like this one when the French Open began. Inexperience should have been a factor and that is before considering the time Lois Boisson had to spend away from the court after the ACL injury suffered last year, but momentum and confidence is firmly with the 22 year old.

The win over Mirra Andreeva will have given her a huge amount of belief and this is the second top ten Ranked player that Lois Boisson has beaten at this tournament as she takes aim at the third.

The crowd certainly helped as Mirra Andreeva lost her way and reminded everyone that she is still a teenager, no matter how much talent she possesses.

Whether the same mental breakdown can be expected from an experienced player like Coco Gauff is a question to be answered and this could yet be a decisive factor.

In recent years, Gauff has spoken about the positive support she has received in Paris and she has clearly enjoyed playing here with the crowd getting behind her. However, she will not have experienced an atmosphere like the one that is expected for this Semi Final as she takes on a home player with the fans hoping for the first French Champion in Paris since Mary Pierce in 2000.

With a serve that is still looking vulnerable, Coco Gauff is going to have to deal with the cheers after Double Faults and missed first serves and that can wear down even the most experienced of players.

The World Number 2 showed her resiliency to come through in three sets her Quarter Final against Madison Keys and Coco Gauff is returning well enough to believe she can overcome shaky service games. She will likely put Lois Boisson under more consistent pressure than Mirra Andreeva was able to do and Gauff is also a strong defensive player who can make the less experienced player have to hit one more shot than she may expect.

Ultimately we should see the higher Ranked player come through, but it is unlikely that Lois Boisson will go quietly and the layers are putting a lot more respect on her in this Semi Final. That is highlighted by the handicap being below the mark set, by some layers, for Boisson's matches against Andreeva and Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff can be considered a stronger clay court player than both at this stage of their respective careers.

However, it is the vulnerable serve that may end up making this a very competitive Semi Final and Coco Gauff is going to have to get through some emotions if she is able to reach another French Open Final.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek
Lois Boisson + 5.5 Games

Tuesday, 3 June 2025

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 4th June)

The big Semi Final that most would have anticipated on the women's side of the French Open tournament has been set on Day 10 and the winner of that match between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will go into Saturday's Final as the favourite to win the second Grand Slam of the season.

At the time of writing, neither men's Quarter Final match from Day 10 has been completed, but the thoughts already turn to the other half of the draws.

We have the top Quarter Final of the Round set to round out the day on Wednesday as the tournament ticks into the final five days and my thoughts on three of the four Quarter Final matches to be played on Day 11 can be read below.


Madison Keys + 3.5 games v Coco Gauff: Winning the Australian Open earlier this year came as a surprise, despite the obvious qualities that Madison Keys has shown throughout her career. However, it felt her best days were now behind her and that winning a Grand Slam would be something that she missed out on.

Instead Madison Keys stunned everyone to take the title in Melbourne, and she is perhaps having an even more surprising push to take the title at Roland Garros.

In 2018 and 2019, Madison Keys did reach the Semi Final and Quarter Final respectively at the French Open so she has previous on the clay courts, but there has been just one Fourth Round run since then. A Quarter Final run at Madrid was the outlier in the build up to the French Open, but that is a tournament where you perhaps get the least form guide for the second Grand Slam of the season due to the unique conditions at the event.

The serve has been key for Keys, pardon the pun, at the French Open with at least 69% of points won behind the delivery and that is going to be a big factor in determining the outcome of this Quarter Final. Madison Keys will be well aware that she is going to have to serve well against Madrid Runner Up Coco Gauff, who has been returning really well in the tournament as she looks to add to the US Open title she has won previously.

Winning the title in New York City is the clear highlight of the career so far, but Coco Gauff's most consistent Grand Slam results have been earned in Paris- this is the fifth year in a row she has reached the Quarter Final at Roland Garros, although half of those previous runs have ended in this Round.

Coco Gauff is still having some issues with the serve, but she has won at least 60% of points played behind this shot in three of the four wins to move through the draw. The real advantage Coco Gauff has had over her opponents has been on the return of serve with at least 53% of return points won in each of the previous matches in the tournament and at least five breaks of serve per Round.

Of course it has to be noted that the Madison Keys serve is the best that Coco Gauff will have faced so far in the tournament, but the higher Ranked American will be confident in being able to put the Australian Open Champion under pressure.

It is Madison Keys who leads the head to head and the only previous clay court match between the two was won by Keys in Madrid last year.

This is expected to be another close fought contest though and the best approach may be backing Madison Keys with the start on the game handicap to at least keep this competitive, especially as she has a real opportunity to win this one outright.


Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Lois Boisson: The French Open has been a disappointing event for those players that the public may have expected to see at the business end of the tournament, but Lois Boisson has surprised by making full use of her Wild Card to reach the Quarter Final.

Twelve months ago, Lois Boisson suffered an ACL injury on the eve of the French Open, which meant missing out on using her Wild Card and then spending several months on the sidelines rehabbing. She only returned in February and has been playing outside of the main WTA Tour in a bid to get up to match sharpness and also rebuild the Ranking points, which have seen her slip to World Number 361 as the French Open started.

Her peak World Ranking was Number 152 thirteen months ago, but Lois Boisson is already guaranteed to have a higher number at the end of the tournament.

Full credit has to be given to the 22 year old having beaten two Seeds in the four wins in Paris and both times having to do so in a final set decider to underline the grit and determination Lois Boisson has shown over the last year.

This is going to feel like another step up as she prepares to take on a younger player, but one who has shown massive potential and already sits inside the top ten of the World Rankings. Mirra Andreeva has every chance of finishing this tournament as a top four player, and her experience of reaching the French Open Semi Final last year will mean she should be able to handle the occasion.

Of course the atmosphere is going to be one in which the underdog is going to be receiving so much more support, but Andreeva will be happy to be going out second on Wednesday, which means the teenager can have a little more rest having admitted that she hates being first up.

The lower Ranked player has spent considerable more time on the court than Mirra Andreeva, which is a potential factor, and there have been signs that the Lois Boisson serve is beginning to become a vulnerability. As accumulated fatigue builds up, that serve is going to be come more and more appealing for Mirra Andreeva to attack and that may put the underdog in some pressurised spots.

Lois Boisson has continued to do enough on the return to stay in matches and that is going to be key for her here, but the feeling is that Mirra Andreeva is still playing at a level that may be tough for the World Number 361 to reach having invested so much into the tournament already.

Covering this handicap mark will not be easy, but the Mirra Andreeva level may see her pull away as the match develops and she may find the breaks needed to secure a relatively strong win on the scoreboard.


Alexander Zverev-Novak Djokovic over 39.5 games: As has been the case in recent years since the French Open added a Night Session to the schedule and sold the rights to that individually, there have been criticisms of the organisers for not placing a women's match in the 'limelight'.

It would be a complete surprise to all if people expected anything other than Alexander Zverev vs Novak Djokovic to have that scheduling spot on Day 11 at the French Open in what is the stand out Quarter Final of the last two days.

These two players faced off at the Australian Open Semi Final earlier in the year, but the match finished prematurely when Novak Djokovic was unable to play through an injury having dropped the first set. Last year, Djokovic's run at the French Open was ended in the Quarter Final due to another injury, but he did win the Olympic Gold here and the former World Number 1 looks to be peaking at the right time.

This is the SIXTEENTH year in a row that Novak Djokovic has at least made the Quarter Final at the French Open, which is an incredible achievement from a player who has had an incredible career. Two of the last four runs have ended without a Semi Final appearance, but the other two have finished with Djokovic lifting the trophy and his level over the last two Rounds will give him a lot of confidence.

Of course this is also a tournament in which Alexander Zverev has thrived and he will still be thinking about twelve months ago when leading Carlos Alcaraz in the Final. This has been the Grand Slam in which Alexander Zverev has played his most consistent tennis and he will be chasing a Semi Final spot for the fifth year in a row when taking the court on Wednesday.

He benefited from an early ending to his Fourth Round win, while Zverev has been producing at a consistently strong level as he has eased his way through the draw. Other players have taken the headlines, but that will not concern the World Number 3, even as he sits in the tougher half of the French Open draw.

The serve will be key for Alexander Zverev and it has been a strong weapon for him in this tournament- it has definitely felt like a more consistent shot for Zverev than Novak Djokovic's has felt for the former World Number 1 and it is imperative that the slight underdog serves well.

Both have produced solid returning numbers and that should make for a very good Quarter Final and one that goes potentially long, and certainly long enough to cover the total game line set.

Despite both being in the top ten of the World Rankings in recent years, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic have missed one another at tournaments. This is only the third meeting since November 2021, which is pretty remarkable, and one of the previous two ended in Melbourne after just one set had been played.

They have met in the French Open Quarter Final before, in 2019, and it was Novak Djokovic who was a very comfortable winner on that day. However, six years later, this one has all of the hallmarks of being a much more competitive contest and the expectation is that we will see at least four sets, which should set the match on the road to surpass the total games line if Zverev and Djokovic continue to play to the level they have been as the tournament has progressed.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys + 3.5 Games
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games
Alexander Zverev-Novak Djokovic Over 39.5 Games

French Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 3rd June)

Five days remain in Paris at the second Grand Slam of the season, but the Singles events have moved into the Quarter Final Round and that means the number of matches per day are down to four.

Two men's and two women's matches are scheduled for Day 10 at Roland Garros.

There is a narrow lean towards Carlos Alcaraz finding a way to wear down Tommy Paul and cover a big line, but Frances Tiafoe is playing well enough to believe he can push Lorenzo Musetti and get within the number set.

As has been the case over the last few days, my thoughts are an indication of where my Picks would have leaned, even though the Picks had been shut down for a few days.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: She may be the multiple time former French Open Champion, but Iga Swiatek is going to have to deal with what is expected to be a crowd that is fully behind honorary Frenchwoman Elina Svitolina in this Quarter Final.

Some players do want to feel the love from the crowd, but Iga Swiatek perhaps does not strike me as one of those and her Fourth Round win over Elena Rybakina will have given her a lot of confidence. This has not been the best of seasons so far for Iga Swiatek, and her clay court performances have been way below the kind of standards she has set on the surface, but that win over Rybakina is a real reminder of the kind of aura the former World Number 1 will continue to hold whenever she steps onto this court.

Elena Rybakina will be kicking herself, but Iga Swiatek can build on that victory having produced some solid, if unspectacular, tennis to move through the draw into the second week.

She had been serving well before being pushed all the way by a big hitting Elena Rybakina in the Fourth Round and there is a feeling that a match up like this one will suit Iga Swiatek so much more.

Instead of feeling like she is being powered off of the court, Iga Swiatek is likely going to be involved in more comfortable rallies and that should aid her in her bid to reach yet another French Open Semi Final. The serve will still be attacked by Elina Svitolina, but perhaps not as effectively as an aggressive Rybakina was able to do, and this should help the Number 5 Seed.

It also should be noted that nothing much has come easy for Elina Svitolina in her run in Paris and all of the tennis she has needed to play could produce some level of accumulated fatigue. In only one of the four wins produced in Paris has Svitolina created more Break Points compared with her opponent and she could have easily been beaten in straight sets in her Fourth Round win over Jasmine Paolini.

If she is going to earn the upset, the serve has to improve significantly, but that may be asking too much considering how much success Iga Swiatek has had on the return against Elina Svitolina. The second serve in particularly has been exploited by the former World Number 1 and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek is going to have all of the tools at her disposal to secure a relatively comfortable passage into the next Round.

The favourite will also feel there is room for improvement after the Fourth Round win, but this is a match up where Iga Swiatek is unlikely to feel the racquet is out of her hands as much as it did against Elena Rybakina and it should lead to the breaks needed to cover the line set.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: A real rivalry in tennis can only be formed if it does not end up being a one-sided head to head and so it feels very important for Qinwen Zheng to have secured a victory over Aryna Sabalenka earlier this month.

That occurred in Rome, on the clay courts, and all of a sudden there will be plenty ready to back the Olympic Gold Medal winner to come through and earn her spot in the Semi Final at the French Open.

Big wins on this court are not unfamiliar to Qinwen Zheng having beaten Iga Swiatek right here on the way to winning the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympic Games last summer. That is about as big a challenge as anyone could face on the clay courts on the WTA Tour and so Qinwen Zheng is not going to be lacking for confidence.

She may feel she has nothing to lose after almost being beaten in the Fourth Round and the ability to battle through those difficult moments will help a player desperate to win a maiden Grand Slam title. Prior to the win over Liudmila Samsonova, Qinwen Zheng had been making her way through the French Open draw impressively and she will certainly not be afraid to beat Aryna Sabalenka for a second straight time on the clay.

However, Aryna Sabalenka has certainly been playing at a consistently high level in her run to the Quarter Final and the World Number 1 has yet to drop a set.

The Belarusian has not had to spend nearly as much time on the court as her opponent and Aryna Sabalenka's numbers on the serve and return have been impressive. She will expect to be given another stern test by Qinwen Zheng, but Aryna Sabalenka may feel she cannot be as poor as she was in Rome and will believe to be in better shape having played that tournament just days after winning the Madrid Masters.

Recent matches between these two top 10 rivals have been much more competitive on the court, if not the scoreboard, and that will offer the lower Ranked player confidence in her bid to earn the upset.

However, the overall performances of the two players here in Paris means the lean has to be with Aryna Sabalenka, just as long as she is a bit more composed when the Break Points come her way compared with the Fourth Round win.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games

Saturday, 31 May 2025

French Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 31st May)

As mentioned previously, there are not likely to be any Picks from the French Open after a frustrating first week and it feels like that was a good decision after the results on Friday.

The two selections below is where I would target if I was still placing any units down, but it may be best to fade them on current form.


Alexander Bublik - 5.5 games v Henrique Rocha: Both of these players were perhaps thinking about their scheduling following the French Open when trailing Seeded players 2-0 in sets in the Second Round. To further that potential loss of focus is the fact that they had won a combined seven games across those four sets and there would not have been too many 'in play' backers of either Alexander Bublik or Henrique Rocha.

That has to be especially the case for Henrique Rocha, who had to battle through three Qualifiers to make the main draw in Paris but who had won just two of nine clay court matches prior to entering that Qualifying draw for the French Open. Only two of those matches had been played against top 100 Ranked opponents, which ended in relatively comfortable defeats, and the Portuguese player was in a desperate position in the last Round.

As stated, it has felt like a tournament in which really strange results have been occurring throughout the first week and Henrique Rocha's win in the Second Round has to be right up there with the strangest- he had shown nothing prior to the tournament to suggest he would be that competitive and then losing 6/2, 6/1 against a top 20 Seed should have ended all beiief.

With nothing to lose Henrique Rocha is potentially dangerous, but Alexander Bublik will be feeling confident after recovering to upset Alex De Minaur in the last Round.

He is an erratic player, which makes it hard to trust Alexander Bublik, and his form over the last twelve months has been pretty poor, which has resulted in the World Ranking dropping 45 places.

However, Alexander Bublik has at least shown some clay court form prior to the French Open- he reached the Fourth Round in Madrid and won a Challenger event, which were against opponents who are all Ranked higher than Henrique Rocha, at least prior to this event.

It would not be a major surprise if this does go at least four sets, but Alexander Bublik should still have the qualities to exert his strengths over Henrique Rocha and that can show up on the scoreboard. The tournament has been a funny one with not all numbers being backed up by the final tally on the board, but Bublik looks capable of moving into the second week behind a strong looking win.


Jack Draper - 1.5 sets v Joao Fonseca: There is a lot of hype around Joao Fonseca and there is little doubt that he is going to be a star on the Tour if he can steer clear of injuries and maintain his current progressive trajectory.

However, this is still early in his career and Joao Fonseca finished his preparation for the French Open with three straight losses on the clay courts. That has not stopped the layers asking for the Brazilian to perhaps cover lines higher than he should and they refuse to underestimate a player that will receive plenty of backing.

It can lead to some funny prices around Joao Fonseca matches and Jack Draper is capable of getting the better of this opponent for a second time this season.

A Final in Madrid and Quarter Final in Rome underlines the ability of Jack Draper on the clay and he had positive numbers last year too, despite the win-loss record being against him. The improvements being made by Draper has seen him become a real threat on all surfaces and the victory over Gael Monfils in the Second Round should be a reminder that he can come through hostile environments to win matches.

The fans are likely going to be behind the youngster making headlines, but Joao Fonseca has not been playing at his very best level on the clay in the lead to the French Open. Beating Hubert Hurkacz in the First Round is a positive performance and result, but Fonseca made hard work of the Second Round when set as a big favourite and he is still a work in progress when it comes to fulfilling all of the obvious potential he has.

Jack Draper has the edge in the serving and returning numbers on the clay courts, and that win in Indian Wells in March should give him confidence against this teenager. He might drop a set, but Draper should be strong enough to still get the better of Joao Fonseca and he can come through in four sets on his way to the second week at the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik - 5.5 Games
Jack Draper - 1.5 Sets

Thursday, 29 May 2025

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 30th May)

There are just some tournaments that seem to fly in the face of 'normal' and it really feels like something odd is happening at the French Open, especially through the first week of the tournament.

Regardless of how much the top players dominate a match, it is like the lower Ranked guys or underdogs have been given a boost in power and that they are able to play the big points that much better than those who have been picking up titles and operating in the higher echelons of the sport.

Case in point- Day 5 proved to be another awfully frustrating day in which nothing is seemingly as it should be.

Two massive favourites blew 2-0 lead to be downed in five sets (Alex De Minaur being one of those), while another, Arthur Fils, only just about hung on a fifth set decider having allowed his opponent to recover from two sets down as well.

Or how about two players winning 31 and 28 points more than their opponents, but going 1-1 in terms of covering the same line- Alexander Zverev managed a late break to do that, but Andrey Rublev crushed Adam Walton everywhere barring the scoreboard. While both struggled, Jannik Sinner won 29 more points than Richard Gasquet and covered his bigger line set, but for the Tennis Picks the 1-1 from those two players mentioned has added to the tournament following the 2024 Australian Open in finding a way to have losing selections when everything has pointed to the match ending on the winning side.

It has been the story of the French Open and it makes little sense to understand- the numbers, in this case, are not being backed up by the final scores and the frustration about that is setting in.

You can accept losing selections, that will happen over the course of a tournament and over the course of the year, but this has all of the hallmarks of what happened in Australia last year when the tournament just trended in a negative direction and against all sense or reason.

Over the last three or four days, there have been a number of matches that have drifted away from a strong position and that is not something that can continue to happen without thinking about shutting down the selections and clearing the mind for the grass court campaign and run through Wimbledon.


It was not only the 2-3 record, but what has really frustrated me over the last couple of days is the absolute hardship that any winner has had, and the shocking way some of the losers have come in.

To sum it up, Jack Draper's miss by a single game.

Not only did he have 22 Break Points compared with Gael Monfils, but in the fourth set those numbers were 13 and 3, but take a guess who struck first and who had to fight back and barely miss any covering opportunity?! It has been happening time and again in this tournament, and the fact is that he won 27 more points in the match and was still only able to win by a six game margin.

Ultimately that is just annoying me, like it did in Melbourne a little under eighteen months ago and the lesson has been learned that some tournaments simply do not make any sense and it is no point trying to work them out.

Even the winning selections are in matches where players have barely covered, despite absolutely crushing opponents, while the Andrey Rublev missed cover was another joke if I am being honest. He could not have been any more on top and that match would end with a much, much more comfortable winning margin if played the same way, but just on another day.

There is so much of a season to go and I will continue to have some thoughts on upcoming matches, which will be researched as normal, and perhaps this Bizzaro World of the Roland Garros tournament will begin to make more sense.

But the reality is I am not prepared to blow the season work when there is clearly something amiss right now and now with so much tennis left to play in 2025.


Sebastian Korda v Frances Tiafoe: Two American players meet in the Third Round at the French Open and with what will feel like a big opportunity to reach the second week at a Grand Slam where they perhaps hold the lowest expectations.

Neither Sebastian Korda nor Frances Tiafoe can really point to a lot of quality form on the European clay courts and the warm up events have been about what is to be expected from them.

Both had losing records on the European clay, but Sebastian Korda can at least say that three of his four losses have been against top 30 Ranked opponents, including against solid clay competitors in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud. The exception was a loss to Jaume Munar, but Frances Tiafoe has also lost to the Spaniard since arriving in Europe and the World Number 16 had lost his previous three clay court matches to those Ranked Number 44 or lower.

With that in mind, Sebastian Korda may feel he has been a victim of poor draws rather than upsets and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in three straight matches to give him belief in winning this Third Round match.

The only previous clay court match was won by Frances Tiafoe in 2022, but he was a fortunate winner on that day having created half of the Break Points that his compatriot had against him.

Credit has to be given to both players for the solid wins they have earned at the French Open in 2025, and that will give them the confidence to take into this match. It feels like one that will need four or maybe even five sets, but Sebastian Korda has had more recent success at Roland Garros and that may still be a factor.

In recent matches between the pair, Sebastian Korda has looked the stronger player and his pre-tournament form does feel like an edge in his favour.


Hamad Medjedovic - 3.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: The best win that either of these players have produced in the tournament is the one that Daniel Altmaier secured over Taylor Fritz. This upset has opened up this little section of the draw and the opportunity to earn a spot in the second week of a Grand Slam comes with huge Ranking points, as well as being a confidence builder.

That is the opportunity for Daniel Altmaier and Hamad Medjedovic with both outside of the top 60 in the World Rankings at the start of the French Open.

Pushing inside those positions lead to entry into bigger events and the feeling is that the 21 year old Hamad Medjedovic is going to be the player who came come through this match.

It is the younger player who has gotten a bit more out of serve on the clay compared with Daniel Altmaier and that could be key, especially with both having similar kind of levels on the return. There is plenty of experience that Altmaier can call upon, which is a huge help, but his clay numbers have taken a serious dent when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.

Unsurprisingly the same can be said for Hamad Medjedovic, but his numbers remain pretty significantly stronger than the opponent and he looks the right player to back in this tough Third Round of action on Friday in the French capital.

These players met on the hard courts earlier this season, also in France, and it was Hamad Medjedovic who came through in three competitive sets. However, it was a match in which he had 10 Break Points compared with 4 for Daniel Altmaier and the expectation is that the Serb will have the superior number in this one, which should eventually tell on the scoreboard, even if the tournament in general has flown in the face of the numbers produced by players.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda
Hamad Medjedovic - 3.5 Games

French Open Update: 5-14, - 9.56 Units (19 Units Staked, - 50.32% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 29th May)

The only positive from Day 4 is that at least some of the selections were able to return with winners, but this has not been a fun tournament for the selections so far.

Some of the Picks may not have looked like they have stood a chance from the outset, but the frustration has been getting on the wrong end of some of the fine margins.

For instance, Miomir Kecmanovic is going to be wondering just as much as we are as to how he was beaten by Quentin Halys having dominated the Break Point count- he had ten across three games in the third set and was still not able to win it, and it really is a match that was effectively read correctly, but without the luck that is needed.

Jelena Ostapenko missed the cover by one game having taken too long to really take control of her match, while Diana Shnaider then allowed a 4-0 lead to slip in the opening set.

And just in case it feels like only the bounce of the ball that is seemingly going against the selections in the French capital, Casper Ruud is injured and loses twelve of thirteen games played in the final two sets. He had no reason to continue to play when the injury had completely limited his movement, and there is no way you back someone who is injured, but that is the way the cookie crumbles and sums up the poor luck that has been attached to the Picks.

It does make Thursday important and anything less than a winning return may mean a choice has to be made to shut down the Picks for the rest of the event- I would still offer up some thoughts on the matches to be played, but without any units to be attached to them, but it is something to assess after the Thursday schedule is completed.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Corentin Moutet: It has not been a year to remember so far for Novak Djokovic and the former World Number 1 had been struggling on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. He skipped Rome after consecutive defeats, but Novak Djokovic made a rare decision to play in Geneva in the week before the start of the French Open to try and rebuild some confidence.

The plan worked with Djokovic winning the title before heading to Paris and he did not need to be at his best to win in the First Round at Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic may go down as the best player of all time, but he has not always been given love from the tennis watching crowd and certainly not like Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. That could be the case again in the Second Round with a match against a home player, although Djokovic admitted feeling good being back in Paris having last stepped out here with the Gold Medal win at the Olympic Games.

He is going to be tested by Corentin Moutet who has a style that can take opponents out of their rhythm when performing at his best.

The World Number 73 had not shown a lot of form before reaching the Fourth Round in Rome, but that will have given Corentin Moutet a lift and he was also a relaxed First Round winner here. Last year, the Frenchman had his best run in his home Grand Slam when reaching the Fourth Round and he even took the first set from Jannik Sinner, and so deserves respect, but Novak Djokovic has seen it all in his time on the Tour and that should mean he is well versed in what to expect from Corentin Moutet.

Corentin Moutet will know that his serve is vulnerable, but he is a decent return player and that will give him some hope.

However, it is tough to expect him to stay with Novak Djokovic for long enough to really build towards a potential upset.

They have met twice before on the pro Tour and it is Novak Djokovic who has won both matches, including on an indoor hard court at the Paris Masters. Their most recent meeting came twelve months ago on clay at the Rome Masters and Novak Djokovic's return was devastatingly effective on the day and there is every reason to believe he can come through a competitive first set before really exerting his qualities over this Second Round match.


Alexander Zverev - 8.5 games v Jesper de Jong: If you consider the kind of successes that Alexander Zverev has had at Roland Garros and the fact he was 2-1 up in the Final of the French Open in 2024, you have to say he gets to fly relatively under the radar.

He is also the World Number 3, but it is Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz who lead the expert picks when it comes to selecting a potential Champion and this should be something that suits Alexander Zverev.

Some criticism of his performances over the last month have irked him, but he did win a clay court title in Munich and reached the Quarter Final in Rome. It was something of a surprise to see Alexander Zverev enter the Hamburg tournament last week, but the appearance fee may have persuaded him and the relatively early exit is not something that will bother him too much.

Alexander Zverev moved through the First Round without dropping a set, and he could be capable of covering what is an exceptionally wide line in the Second Round.

He is going up against Jesper de Jong, the World Number 88 who is set to end the French Open at a new career high World Ranking if he can put another win on the board. That is the challenge for the Dutch player who came through the First Round having dropped the first two sets and especially as he now has to face an opponent much stronger than the opener.

During this clay court season, the top players have gotten the better of Jesper de Jong, which is going to be a potential factor. Both Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner were very comfortable winners over him in Barcelona and Rome respectively, and in those defeats, de Jong simply struggled to protect his serve.

Alexander Zverev should know he can put the pressure on having crushed Jesper de Jong in Hamburg last year for the loss of just four games and you have to believe the World Number 3 is aware that he does not want to use too much energy in this first week. That should drive some focus, but it has been a tough tournament for some of the big names and it is up to Zverev to keep his intensity high and break down a player who is still quite vulnerable at the very top level.


Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Adam Walton: There has not been a lot wrong with the numbers produced over the last twelve months, but Andrey Rublev has been trying to find the mentality to overcome those moments when things have gone against him. Instead of fighting through and turning things back in his favour, Andrey Rublev has suffered too many defeats in that time and it is a clear reason he has dropped out of the top 10 in the World Rankings.

He only reached the Third Round at the French Open in 2024 and so there is an opportunity in front of the World Number 15 to reverse the declining trend.

No one will doubt the abilities of Andrey Rublev, who reached the Hamburg Final last weekend, but the results have been a little disappointing through this clay court season.

Dropping a set in the First Round is not a major problem for Andrey Rublev, especially as he was able to roll through the next two sets for a comfortable 3-1 success and the Russian is a very strong favourite to win this match against an opponent who has very little clay court experience.

Adam Walton is playing just his seventh clay court match in his career and he was 1-4 going into the French Open.

The draw was a kind one, but Adam Walton could not take anything for granted and still needed all five sets to move through to this Second Round match and a huge challenge that is coming up. His serve has been a vulnerable part of his tennis on the clay courts and Walton will find it tough to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve if the latter is anywhere near the kind of level he can produce.

In all honesty, Andrey Rublev has not been serving that well on the clay courts this season and certainly not to the standard of the last two years. However, he has still been getting enough from that shot to believe he will be the stronger on the day and the returning pressure could end up seeing the higher Ranked player move through the gears into another Third Round in Paris.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 8.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arthur Fils - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jack Draper - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 3-11, - 8.48 Units (14 Units Staked, - 60.57% Yield)

Wednesday, 28 May 2025

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 28th May)

Wow, six Picks, six losers, and the start of the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season could not have gone any worse.

The most frustrating part is how incredible some of the performances have been- players moving into a position to win sets/matches and suddenly deciding that they don't want to be on the court has really added to the irritation around the manner in which the selections have fallen into a pit.

Daniil Medvedev was leading 4-2 in the first set against an opponent who has never won a set against him, never mind a match, but absolutely lost all focus in losing nine of the next ten games.

Even then he had a chance to cover in the fifth set when refocusing, but it was too late and that is yet another selection in which the player has not only failed to cover, but has lost outright as a pretty strong favourite.

All things considered, the next two days feels important- I have regularly mentioned the Australian Open 2024 when the tournament kiboshed my entire season and that was another in which strange results continued to dump on the selections made. Much like the opening in Paris, that tournament in Melbourne featured so many matches that had players right on the brink of becoming a winning selection, but then falling apart.

With that in mind, the Second Round is important here and the numbers need to start moving in a positive direction and perhaps even significantly.

If not, the next two weeks will still see me releasing my thoughts on each day at the Grand Slam, but I am refusing to throw what has been a positive year under the bus when outside factors are playing such a big part in the outcome of the selections.

So it will either be a change of luck, or it will be a tournament where a watching interest will be the outcome and the next official Tennis Picks will be made from the grass court season.

I said after Day 1 things can only get better, but the reality is that I am not prepared for them to get significantly worse before shutting it down at this event.


Victoria Mboko - 1.5 games v Eva Lys: The tennis world is always ready for the next breakthrough star and there is a feeling that 18 year old Canadian Victoria Mboko is ready to move her career forward on the WTA Tour.

There are other young players out there who have a bigger reputation right now, but Mboko has begun to earn some of the limelight too and winning four matches at the French Open can only be a positive for her. In recent months there have been plenty of wins away from the main WTA Tour, but three Qualifying wins and a success in the First Round without dropping a set has to give Victoria Mboko a lot of belief in her own game.

This looks to be another tough test when going up against Eva Lys, who upset Peyton Stearns in the First Round.

The 23 year old German does have plenty of clay court experience, but she will need to back up that level produced in the crushing win over Stearns and consistency to do that may be beyond Eva Lys. She will certainly not want to offer up too many looks at the second serve against an aggressive player like Victoria Mboko, while the amount of wins produced by the latter will make her believe.

Further to that, Mboko was able to take a set from Coco Gauff in Rome earlier this month, a player right amongst the favourites to win the title here.

Victoria Mboko has not only made hay by beating those she is expected to, but she has a 5-3 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts prior to the French Open. Her opening win has added to that collection and Victoria Mboko may have the confidence to edge past Eva Lys, even if the latter is able to push her into a deciding set.


Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: The World Number 14 may not have faced too many issues coming through her First Round match, but Elina Svitolina is also going to be experienced enough to know that her own level will have to be lifted as she moves through the draw at Roland Garros.

The Second Round match looks very winnable on paper, but Svitolina will have a respect for Anna Bondar who has been on the Tour for long enough to avoid being overwhelmed by the occasion.

Anna Bondar had hit the top 50 of the World Rankings in July 2022, but it has been tough for her to remain competitive at the main WTA level. At the same time, the Hungarian has found the drop a lot more comfortable to manage and she has won titles below the main Tour this season and on this surface, which is deserving of respect.

In reality Anna Bondar has not really faced opponents of this level all too often in the last couple of years and it is a considerable step up. That step looks all the tougher when you think of how well Elina Svitolina has played in the build up to the French Open with one title secured and a Quarter Final and Semi Final run under her belt at the two Masters tournaments played.

Being an honorary Frenchwoman will help with the crowd firmly behind Elina Svitolina every time she steps on the court and that is another factor landing in her favour in this Second Round match.

In her clay court matches in 2025, Elina Svitolina has been really strong behind the serve and that has allowed her return to really put the pressure on opponents. If she can continue serving as she has been, Svitolina should be able to put the pressure on Anna Bondar and that could lead to some cracks as the Seeded player moves through with a cover of this line set.


Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: Both of these players had to battle through three setters in the opening Round, but both coulld have taken some confidence from the fact they were able to get through in the manner that they did.

Caroline Dolehide and Jelena Ostapenko dropped the opening set at the French Open before rallying and that should give the pair confidence ahead of this match.

The former may actually feel that there is an upset potential around this match having perhaps been the more consistent player on the clay over the last couple of years. The results have not always backed that up for Caroline Dolehide and she has not really competed at the top, top level in that time, which is backed up by the fact she has a 3-7 record on the clay when facing top 50 Ranked players.

In saying that, she has won three matches and Carolina Dolehide will know that there is every chance that Jelena Ostapenko will come out in a bad mood and just start spraying losing shots all over the court.

Ten times Jelena Ostapenko has played at the French Open and she has only surpassed the Second Round twice in that run- one of those ended in the Third Round so you may not feel this is a great tournament for the Latvian.

However, the other time Ostapenko was able to move past the Second Round was in 2017 when she went on to lift the French Open title and the World Number 21 also won a big event in Stuttgart in April during which she beat Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

Jelena Ostapenko is 1-2 since winning that title in Germany and she is not always capable of showing the patience you can need on a clay court. After a poor start to the tournament, Ostapenko is perhaps not the most appealing player to back, but a decent first serve and an aggressive return gives her an opportunity.

You have to respect Caroline Dolehide, but her serve has been vulnerable in those matches against top 50 Ranked players and she has not always been the most convincing of return players.

It is difficult to trust Ostapenko to produce her best tennis on any given day, but the momentum of the First Round win should carry over and the higher Ranked player should have the breaks of serve needed to move past this line when all is said and done.


Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Emma Raducanu: All four previous matches between these players have been won by Iga Swiatek, although it is something of a surprise to note that the two clay meetings have been much more competitive than the two hard court match ups.

In four hard court sets, Emma Raducanu has managed to win just five games, including just the single game when these two met at the Australian Open back in January.

However, it has been a different story on the clay, despite this long being Iga Swiatek's favoured surface, and in the four sets on this surface, Emma Raducanu has managed to win seventeen games. Those two matches were both played in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court, while the two hard court defeats have been outside and that may be an additional factor when these two face off in the Second Round at the French Open.

Emma Raducanu is playing through the pain, but showed some grit and determination which has arguably been missing in her young career. This should bode well for the former US Open Champion who has never really got back to those heights and Emma Raducanu will be looking to show how much she has learned from the humbling loss in Melbourne.

It is still a tough task, especially when not operating at 100%, even if Iga Swiatek is struggling to find her best level.

The defending Champion came through a couple of tough moments in what turned out to be a relatively straight-forward First Round win, but Swiatek will know that better has to come if she is going to win the French Open for a fourth year in a row.

Motivation will not be hard to find for Emma Raducanu, but she is still a significant underdog on this surface and has been on the wrong end of a couple of heavy losses over the last month. She will need to serve well and hope Iga Swiatek is having an off day, but that is going to be perhaps asking too much when you note that the Pole's worst results on the clay this season have been against top 20 Ranked opponents.

Outside of that, Iga Swiatek has produced better numbers- they may not have gotten up to the levels shown in recent years, but they are still solid enough and Swiatek may end up rolling through this match to move clear of the handicap mark set.


Diana Shnaider - 3.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: The First Round can be a difficult one to negotiate at the Grand Slam events with the pressure that is placed on the top Seeds and that may have contributed to the slow start made by Diana Shnaider. By the end she was rolling, but this is a considerable step up for the World Number 12 and Diana Schnaider is going to have to be that much more solid to negotiate the test.

Next up is Dayana Yastremska who had a huge run to the Australian Open Semi Final in 2024, but who has now dropped back into World Number 48.

The Ukrainian is capable of the clay courts, but Dayana Yastremska has tended to beat those she is expected to beat and lose to those that she is not.

Backing that up is the fact that her last seven matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts have all ended in defeat, including all three played in 2025. In those defeats, Dayana Yastremska has simply not been able to look after her serve and that puts a lot of pressure on the return game, which has ultimately led to those defeats.

Beating a Wild Card in the First Round and in impressive fashion will give Dayana Yastremska confidence, but Diana Shnaider is playing very well on the clay courts and closing the gap between them will be tough.

Much will depend on the Shnaider serve, and that has been an improving weapon for the 21 year old over the last couple of years. Those numbers have looked stronger on the clay court compared with last year and it gives Diana Shnaider the edge in this match, especially with what feels like a more consistent return game to go with it.

In their sole previous meeting on the Tour, Diana Shnaider thumped Dayana Yastremska for the loss of just four games on a grass court- the youngster is still developing her experience of being favoured in Grand Slam event matches and so this is expected to be closer, but with the higher Ranked player capable of winning and covering the handicap on her way to the Third Round.


Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Nuno Borges: In the last three French Open tournaments played, Casper Ruud has reached the Final twice and the Semi Final so suffice to say he is pretty happy with the conditions in Paris. Since 2022, you would have to consider Ruud right amongst the very best players on the clay courts, although the opportunity to win a major title is always going to be tough to take considering some of the other favourites in and amongst the draw.

He made a solid start to the latest bid to win the French Open and Casper Ruud is a strong favourite to come through this Second Round match.

A title was won in Madrid and Casper Ruud has reached the Quarter Final at both Barcelona and Rome events, although the stunning beatdown given to him by Jannik Sinner may have left one or two scars. That is something that could be in play the further we move into the tournament, but Casper Ruud should feel he is playing well enough to negotiate the early Rounds with the minimum of fuss.

Next up is Nuno Borges who reached the top 30 in the World Rankings just last September, but who has struggled for any kind of clay court consistency in 2025. He has an 8-7 record after the First Round win, but Nuno Borges found himself in a deep hole at two sets down against a Qualifier.

Turning that around has to give any player belief, but this is a considerable step up for Nuno Borges who has struggled to hold serve in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this season. He did beat an injured Holger Rune at the Monte Carlo Masters, but you cannot ignore the injury nor the fact that Nuno Borges won just two games a couple of Rounds later against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

A competitive set or two cannot be ruled out, but you have to believe Casper Ruud will be able to get the better of them with his superior serve and the likely help he will get when attacking the Borges serve. There should also be a moment when Ruud is able to move through the gears and stack the games together and that could see the World Number 8 begin to push towards clearing this handicap.

Their sole previous meeting saw Casper Ruud win 6-3, 6-2 on a hard court last year and his superior clay court tennis ability should see the Norwegian come through with a strong result on the scoreboard against Nuno Borges again.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: It is never ideal having to dig deep and come through an opening Grand Slam match in five sets, but doing so from two sets behind might just offer some momentum to take into the tournament. That is what Miomir Kecmanovic has to be hoping having gotten the better of a solid clay courter in Sebastian Baez in the First Round.

The test for the World Number 46 is recovering and preparing to face a hostile crowd when taking on one of the French players in the draw.

He is also going to be facing an opponent in Quentin Halys who benefited from a mid-match retirement in the First Round and that should mean the home player is in better physical condition to compete. It should be a boost, along with the crowd support, but Halys still has something to prove after an incredibly underwhelming build up towards the French Open.

The 2-5 record prior to the start of Roland Garros is one thing, but Quentin Halys had also taken in a couple of Challenger events this past six weeks and still could not turn his form around. He has one top 100 Ranked win on the clay this season and Quentin Halys has really been struggling on the return of serve, which has placed him under duress.

Miomir Kecmanovic has hardly been ripping up trees in his own preparation, but did take in the Challenger in Estoril and reached the Semi Final at that event. The clay court losses he has suffered feel much more reasonable compared with Quentin Halys, who has been beaten in some disappointing matches, and this could indicate that the narrow favourite is deserving of his position.

If it was not for the First Round matches ending in different ways for the two players, you have to believe Miomir Kecmanovic would be a stronger favourite here. Even then, he looks worthy of backing to make his way into the Third Round and Kecmanovic may just break a few home hearts on the way.


Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Any player who has won thirty-two clay court matches this season at a 74% strike rate has to be respected, even if Emilio Nava has spent the majority of that time facing opponents Ranked outside of the top 100. Winning does breed confidence and the 23 year old American was able to beat one of those players in the First Round at Roland Garros and in straight sets too.

Prior to the tournament beginning, Wild Card Emilio Nava had lost four of five clay court matches played and so the opening win here in the French capital will certainly have him feeling a whole lot better.

And he will need to be a whole lot better when taking on one of the top ten Seeds in the men's tournament and a player who won a significant title in Barcelona in preparation for the second Grand Slam of the season.

Holger Rune has reached the second week in each of his last three appearances at the French Open and has twice been as far as the Quarter Final to underline his effectiveness and comfort on the clay.

Dropping the first set in the First Round was followed by an increasingly dominant Holger Rune rolling through the gears and a solid server could become very dangerous with a bit more consistency on the return. It is a part of his game that needs a bit of development on the clay courts, but Rune may be able to get into the return games in this Second Round match and his eventual quality should tell.

One of the issues Holger Rune has had in his relatively young career is making matches harder than they should be and that makes it tough to cover lines like the one that has been set in this Second Round match. However, he will know the Emilio Nava game, which will help, and the American's serve has been something of a vulnerability when he has stepped up to face a top 100 Ranked opponent.

A couple of competitive sets cannot be ruled out and it would not be a big surprise if Emilio Nava takes one, but Holger Rune showed in the First Round that he can get stronger within matches and that may see him take this one away from the less experienced player standing across the other side of the net.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Diana Shnaider - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-6, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tuesday, 27 May 2025

French Open Day 3 Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 27th May)

The first two days at the French Open could not have gone any worse.

The opening two Picks were just poor, but Monday was much more frustrating and could easily have landed 2-1 on another day, rather than the 0-3 humbling faced.

Elena Rybakina was two games away from completing a routine First Round win, but managed to lose serve and ultimately become embroiled in a real battle.

The Iga Swiatek win was close, but she started slowly and dropping serve right at the beginning of the second set made it tough.

And then we come to Naomi Osaka who was two points away from opening up a 3-0 lead in the final set... To compound matters, it was a tale of two shots on the same line that swung the match against the former World Number 1 when Osaka missed to drop serve and, after the changeover, Paula Badosa hit the back end of the line at almost the exact same point to save Break Point.

It is early, but this is a difficult opening and that cannot be ignored.

A bit of fortune will help, but just narrowing the parameters a little may just be the key to moving this tournament back towards a positive position in the first week in the French capital.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Three years ago, Cameron Norrie reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon and two months later he was playing at a career high World Ranking of Number 8.

Things have changed considerably for the British player in May 2025 with his World Ranking dipping out of the top 80 and Cameron Norrie has struggled for consistency. However, he is still only 29 years old and Norrie will enter the French Open with a lot more confidence having reached the Geneva Semi Final last week and only being beaten by Novak Djokovic in a deciding set.

He was forced to join the Qualifying Rounds in Barcelona and Rome, while also coming through the Qualifiers in Geneva.

Cameron Norrie should take confidence from that run last week and he has long been a solid, if unspectacular clay court player. Prior to his First Round exit last year, Norrie had reached the Third Round at the French Open in three straight seasons, but he may have wished for an 'easier' First Round opponent.

The World Number 11 stands in the way and Daniil Medvedev has beaten Cameron Norrie in all four previous matches on the Tour, including in Rome earlier this month. The numbers have been heavily weighted in favour of Medvedev in those previous matches and it is going to take a considerable effort from Cameron Norrie to turn that form around.

There was a time when Daniil Medvedev would be considered a vulnerable Seed in the early Rounds of clay court tournaments, but he has been much more comfortable on the surface in recent years. He has reached the Fourth Round in three of the last four years at the French Open and the Medvedev wins on the red dirt in 2025 have all been against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20.

His return has been particularly strong in those matches and the Daniil Medvedev win over Cameron Norrie in Rome can be franked with another solid victory over the British player here.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Monday, 26 May 2025

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2025 (Monday 26th May)

Let's be honest, the French Open could not have begun any worse.

The opening selection lost the first set 6-0, and Peyton Stearns will be really disappointed with her overall defeat.

Diana Shnaider had a stronger end than beginning to her match, but never got close to the cover either.

As the song goes, things can only get better.

The First Round matches continue on Monday with three selections that can be read below.


Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Rebecca Sramkova: The defending three time French Open Champion and a winner in four of the last five seasons in Paris will be opening her 2025 bid as the Number 5 Seed.

That underlines the kind of year that Iga Swiatek has been having and she has admitted that the confidence is not where it should be. In recent years, the Pole has dominated this portion of the Tour, but that has been far from the case for Iga Swiatek over the last couple of months.

However, Iga Swiatek has been in better mood after arriving in Paris and the draw will give her the chance to build into the tournament, which can be important. The familiarity of winning matches on the Roland Garros dirt is another factor and Iga Swiatek may still have some of her aura when she steps out here.

It is clear that the serve has not been as dominant as it has been in recent years and that has put pressure on the return, which has been operating at a level where Iga Swiatek has won 45% of return points compared with the virtual 50% mark set in each of the last three seasons.

An opportunity to make a strong start in Paris is right in front of the World Number 5 as she prepares to face Rebecca Sramkova in the First Round.

The 28 year old has slipped back out of the top 40 in the World Rankings having compiled a 2-3 record on the clay in 2025.

Rebecca Sramkova will at least point out that a couple of those defeats have been in competitive matches and that will give her some belief. She took a set from Jelena Ostapenko in Rome, a former French Open Champion, but this is a significant step for Sramkova who had to Qualify for this Grand Slam last season before losing in the First Round.

These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and Rebecca Sramkova managed to win just two games.

Everything worked for Iga Swiatek that day, but this should be a little bit more competitive even if the dominant clay courter of recent years is able to still cover what is a very big number for a best of three set match.


Naomi Osaka v Paula Badosa: These two players will be familiar of one another, but they have not played on the Tour before with Naomi Osaka's best tennis being played a couple of years before Paula Badosa really started to make waves on the Tour. They were supposed to meet during this clay court season, but Badosa was not able to make it onto the court and instead this 'popcorn' match is to be played in the First Round at the French Open.

Injuries have been something of an issue for Paula Badosa over the last seventeen months, but she does arrive in Paris as the World Number 10.

However, this is going to be just the third match played on the clay courts having played a couple of matches last week in Strasbourg and you do have to wonder if Paula Badosa is perhaps a little undercooked. She did not play badly in her defeat in Strasbourg, which will give the Spaniard some confidence, but Badosa only holds a 7-6 record on the clay courts since the beginning of 2024.

Encouragement can be taken from the fact that she is set to face Naomi Osaka on the least favoured surface of the former World Number 1, but there have been some positive signs from the Japanese star. She won her first title since returning to the Tour after becoming a mother during this clay court season, much to Osaka's own surprise, and she did reach the Fourth Round in Rome.

Twelve months ago, Naomi Osaka should have ended Iga Swiatek's run in the Second Round at the French Open and she has the game to be very competitive on the surface. The key is whether Osaka can show some of the patience that is needed to come through some of the tougher moments, but there has been enough to like from her tennis to think she can edge past Paula Badosa in this strong First Round match.

Naomi Osaka has to take advantage of the cheap points she can generate behind the very good first serve and she may be able to keep the higher Ranked player under some pressure. Both players will have their moments, but Osaka looks capable of getting the better of Paula Badosa on Monday.


Elena Rybakina - 6.5 games v Julia Riera: Off court issues and two pretty early defeats in Madrid and Rome will have seen many write off the chances of Elena Rybakina winning the second Grand Slam of the season. She has looked out of sorts as she has slipped out of the top ten in the World Rankings, but Rybakina may feel much better all around after winning the title in Strasbourg in the last tournament to prepare for the French Open.

The serve has continued to be an effective weapon for Elena Rybakina, even on the clay courts, and she has been a solid competitor on the surface.

However, the poor record prior to the tournament in Strasbourg was largely down to the disappointing return numbers being produced and they are considerably below the standards that have been set in recent years. Make no mistake, Elena Rybakina is going to have to improve on that side of her tennis if she is going to have a big impact in Paris, especially being set on the tougher side of the draw.

It all begins with a Qualifier and there has to be a respect for Julia Riera after the three wins posted to make the main draw. This should mean the familiarity with the conditions offers Julia Riera a potential route towards an upset and even more so when you think that Elena Rybakina will have been travelling from winning a tournament this past weekend.

Julia Riera is going to be very comfortable playing on the clay courts as an Argentinian, while the confidence will be improved after dropping just a single set in three Qualifying wins.

She reached the Semi Final of a tournament played in Bogota on the surface, but a defeat in that Round sparked a run of four losses in five matches for Julia Riera and at a level considerably below what she will be facing in the First Round here.

Eleven losses have been suffered in succession on the clay courts when facing top 100 Ranked opponents and the real concern for Julia Riera is that none of those have been against anyone Ranked inside the top 40.

Credit has to be given to Julia Riera for showing a real competitive spirit in those defeats, but she may be put under pressure by the Elena Rybakina serve and that could see the Seeded player eventually roll through the gears. This could lead to a relatively comfortable win in the First Round, but there are expected to be some considerable tests ahead for the former World Number 3 and Wimbledon Champion.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Elena Rybakina - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)