French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 28th May)

Wow, six Picks, six losers, and the start of the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season could not have gone any worse.

The most frustrating part is how incredible some of the performances have been- players moving into a position to win sets/matches and suddenly deciding that they don't want to be on the court has really added to the irritation around the manner in which the selections have fallen into a pit.

Daniil Medvedev was leading 4-2 in the first set against an opponent who has never won a set against him, never mind a match, but absolutely lost all focus in losing nine of the next ten games.

Even then he had a chance to cover in the fifth set when refocusing, but it was too late and that is yet another selection in which the player has not only failed to cover, but has lost outright as a pretty strong favourite.

All things considered, the next two days feels important- I have regularly mentioned the Australian Open 2024 when the tournament kiboshed my entire season and that was another in which strange results continued to dump on the selections made. Much like the opening in Paris, that tournament in Melbourne featured so many matches that had players right on the brink of becoming a winning selection, but then falling apart.

With that in mind, the Second Round is important here and the numbers need to start moving in a positive direction and perhaps even significantly.

If not, the next two weeks will still see me releasing my thoughts on each day at the Grand Slam, but I am refusing to throw what has been a positive year under the bus when outside factors are playing such a big part in the outcome of the selections.

So it will either be a change of luck, or it will be a tournament where a watching interest will be the outcome and the next official Tennis Picks will be made from the grass court season.

I said after Day 1 things can only get better, but the reality is that I am not prepared for them to get significantly worse before shutting it down at this event.

Victoria Mboko - 1.5 games v Eva Lys: The tennis world is always ready for the next breakthrough star and there is a feeling that 18 year old Canadian Victoria Mboko is ready to move her career forward on the WTA Tour.

There are other young players out there who have a bigger reputation right now, but Mboko has begun to earn some of the limelight too and winning four matches at the French Open can only be a positive for her. In recent months there have been plenty of wins away from the main WTA Tour, but three Qualifying wins and a success in the First Round without dropping a set has to give Victoria Mboko a lot of belief in her own game.

This looks to be another tough test when going up against Eva Lys, who upset Peyton Stearns in the First Round.

The 23 year old German does have plenty of clay court experience, but she will need to back up that level produced in the crushing win over Stearns and consistency to do that may be beyond Eva Lys. She will certainly not want to offer up too many looks at the second serve against an aggressive player like Victoria Mboko, while the amount of wins produced by the latter will make her believe.

Further to that, Mboko was able to take a set from Coco Gauff in Rome earlier this month, a player right amongst the favourites to win the title here.

Victoria Mboko has not only made hay by beating those she is expected to, but she has a 5-3 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts prior to the French Open. Her opening win has added to that collection and Victoria Mboko may have the confidence to edge past Eva Lys, even if the latter is able to push her into a deciding set.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: The World Number 14 may not have faced too many issues coming through her First Round match, but Elina Svitolina is also going to be experienced enough to know that her own level will have to be lifted as she moves through the draw at Roland Garros.

The Second Round match looks very winnable on paper, but Svitolina will have a respect for Anna Bondar who has been on the Tour for long enough to avoid being overwhelmed by the occasion.

Anna Bondar had hit the top 50 of the World Rankings in July 2022, but it has been tough for her to remain competitive at the main WTA level. At the same time, the Hungarian has found the drop a lot more comfortable to manage and she has won titles below the main Tour this season and on this surface, which is deserving of respect.

In reality Anna Bondar has not really faced opponents of this level all too often in the last couple of years and it is a considerable step up. That step looks all the tougher when you think of how well Elina Svitolina has played in the build up to the French Open with one title secured and a Quarter Final and Semi Final run under her belt at the two Masters tournaments played.

Being an honorary Frenchwoman will help with the crowd firmly behind Elina Svitolina every time she steps on the court and that is another factor landing in her favour in this Second Round match.

In her clay court matches in 2025, Elina Svitolina has been really strong behind the serve and that has allowed her return to really put the pressure on opponents. If she can continue serving as she has been, Svitolina should be able to put the pressure on Anna Bondar and that could lead to some cracks as the Seeded player moves through with a cover of this line set.

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: Both of these players had to battle through three setters in the opening Round, but both coulld have taken some confidence from the fact they were able to get through in the manner that they did.

Caroline Dolehide and Jelena Ostapenko dropped the opening set at the French Open before rallying and that should give the pair confidence ahead of this match.

The former may actually feel that there is an upset potential around this match having perhaps been the more consistent player on the clay over the last couple of years. The results have not always backed that up for Caroline Dolehide and she has not really competed at the top, top level in that time, which is backed up by the fact she has a 3-7 record on the clay when facing top 50 Ranked players.

In saying that, she has won three matches and Carolina Dolehide will know that there is every chance that Jelena Ostapenko will come out in a bad mood and just start spraying losing shots all over the court.

Ten times Jelena Ostapenko has played at the French Open and she has only surpassed the Second Round twice in that run- one of those ended in the Third Round so you may not feel this is a great tournament for the Latvian.

However, the other time Ostapenko was able to move past the Second Round was in 2017 when she went on to lift the French Open title and the World Number 21 also won a big event in Stuttgart in April during which she beat Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

Jelena Ostapenko is 1-2 since winning that title in Germany and she is not always capable of showing the patience you can need on a clay court. After a poor start to the tournament, Ostapenko is perhaps not the most appealing player to back, but a decent first serve and an aggressive return gives her an opportunity.

You have to respect Caroline Dolehide, but her serve has been vulnerable in those matches against top 50 Ranked players and she has not always been the most convincing of return players.

It is difficult to trust Ostapenko to produce her best tennis on any given day, but the momentum of the First Round win should carry over and the higher Ranked player should have the breaks of serve needed to move past this line when all is said and done.

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Emma Raducanu: All four previous matches between these players have been won by Iga Swiatek, although it is something of a surprise to note that the two clay meetings have been much more competitive than the two hard court match ups.

In four hard court sets, Emma Raducanu has managed to win just five games, including just the single game when these two met at the Australian Open back in January.

However, it has been a different story on the clay, despite this long being Iga Swiatek's favoured surface, and in the four sets on this surface, Emma Raducanu has managed to win seventeen games. Those two matches were both played in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court, while the two hard court defeats have been outside and that may be an additional factor when these two face off in the Second Round at the French Open.

Emma Raducanu is playing through the pain, but showed some grit and determination which has arguably been missing in her young career. This should bode well for the former US Open Champion who has never really got back to those heights and Emma Raducanu will be looking to show how much she has learned from the humbling loss in Melbourne.

It is still a tough task, especially when not operating at 100%, even if Iga Swiatek is struggling to find her best level.

The defending Champion came through a couple of tough moments in what turned out to be a relatively straight-forward First Round win, but Swiatek will know that better has to come if she is going to win the French Open for a fourth year in a row.

Motivation will not be hard to find for Emma Raducanu, but she is still a significant underdog on this surface and has been on the wrong end of a couple of heavy losses over the last month. She will need to serve well and hope Iga Swiatek is having an off day, but that is going to be perhaps asking too much when you note that the Pole's worst results on the clay this season have been against top 20 Ranked opponents.

Outside of that, Iga Swiatek has produced better numbers- they may not have gotten up to the levels shown in recent years, but they are still solid enough and Swiatek may end up rolling through this match to move clear of the handicap mark set.

Diana Shnaider - 3.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: The First Round can be a difficult one to negotiate at the Grand Slam events with the pressure that is placed on the top Seeds and that may have contributed to the slow start made by Diana Shnaider. By the end she was rolling, but this is a considerable step up for the World Number 12 and Diana Schnaider is going to have to be that much more solid to negotiate the test.

Next up is Dayana Yastremska who had a huge run to the Australian Open Semi Final in 2024, but who has now dropped back into World Number 48.

The Ukrainian is capable of the clay courts, but Dayana Yastremska has tended to beat those she is expected to beat and lose to those that she is not.

Backing that up is the fact that her last seven matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts have all ended in defeat, including all three played in 2025. In those defeats, Dayana Yastremska has simply not been able to look after her serve and that puts a lot of pressure on the return game, which has ultimately led to those defeats.

Beating a Wild Card in the First Round and in impressive fashion will give Dayana Yastremska confidence, but Diana Shnaider is playing very well on the clay courts and closing the gap between them will be tough.

Much will depend on the Shnaider serve, and that has been an improving weapon for the 21 year old over the last couple of years. Those numbers have looked stronger on the clay court compared with last year and it gives Diana Shnaider the edge in this match, especially with what feels like a more consistent return game to go with it.

In their sole previous meeting on the Tour, Diana Shnaider thumped Dayana Yastremska for the loss of just four games on a grass court- the youngster is still developing her experience of being favoured in Grand Slam event matches and so this is expected to be closer, but with the higher Ranked player capable of winning and covering the handicap on her way to the Third Round.

Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Nuno Borges: In the last three French Open tournaments played, Casper Ruud has reached the Final twice and the Semi Final so suffice to say he is pretty happy with the conditions in Paris. Since 2022, you would have to consider Ruud right amongst the very best players on the clay courts, although the opportunity to win a major title is always going to be tough to take considering some of the other favourites in and amongst the draw.

He made a solid start to the latest bid to win the French Open and Casper Ruud is a strong favourite to come through this Second Round match.

A title was won in Madrid and Casper Ruud has reached the Quarter Final at both Barcelona and Rome events, although the stunning beatdown given to him by Jannik Sinner may have left one or two scars. That is something that could be in play the further we move into the tournament, but Casper Ruud should feel he is playing well enough to negotiate the early Rounds with the minimum of fuss.

Next up is Nuno Borges who reached the top 30 in the World Rankings just last September, but who has struggled for any kind of clay court consistency in 2025. He has an 8-7 record after the First Round win, but Nuno Borges found himself in a deep hole at two sets down against a Qualifier.

Turning that around has to give any player belief, but this is a considerable step up for Nuno Borges who has struggled to hold serve in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this season. He did beat an injured Holger Rune at the Monte Carlo Masters, but you cannot ignore the injury nor the fact that Nuno Borges won just two games a couple of Rounds later against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

A competitive set or two cannot be ruled out, but you have to believe Casper Ruud will be able to get the better of them with his superior serve and the likely help he will get when attacking the Borges serve. There should also be a moment when Ruud is able to move through the gears and stack the games together and that could see the World Number 8 begin to push towards clearing this handicap.

Their sole previous meeting saw Casper Ruud win 6-3, 6-2 on a hard court last year and his superior clay court tennis ability should see the Norwegian come through with a strong result on the scoreboard against Nuno Borges again.

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: It is never ideal having to dig deep and come through an opening Grand Slam match in five sets, but doing so from two sets behind might just offer some momentum to take into the tournament. That is what Miomir Kecmanovic has to be hoping having gotten the better of a solid clay courter in Sebastian Baez in the First Round.

The test for the World Number 46 is recovering and preparing to face a hostile crowd when taking on one of the French players in the draw.

He is also going to be facing an opponent in Quentin Halys who benefited from a mid-match retirement in the First Round and that should mean the home player is in better physical condition to compete. It should be a boost, along with the crowd support, but Halys still has something to prove after an incredibly underwhelming build up towards the French Open.

The 2-5 record prior to the start of Roland Garros is one thing, but Quentin Halys had also taken in a couple of Challenger events this past six weeks and still could not turn his form around. He has one top 100 Ranked win on the clay this season and Quentin Halys has really been struggling on the return of serve, which has placed him under duress.

Miomir Kecmanovic has hardly been ripping up trees in his own preparation, but did take in the Challenger in Estoril and reached the Semi Final at that event. The clay court losses he has suffered feel much more reasonable compared with Quentin Halys, who has been beaten in some disappointing matches, and this could indicate that the narrow favourite is deserving of his position.

If it was not for the First Round matches ending in different ways for the two players, you have to believe Miomir Kecmanovic would be a stronger favourite here. Even then, he looks worthy of backing to make his way into the Third Round and Kecmanovic may just break a few home hearts on the way.

Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Any player who has won thirty-two clay court matches this season at a 74% strike rate has to be respected, even if Emilio Nava has spent the majority of that time facing opponents Ranked outside of the top 100. Winning does breed confidence and the 23 year old American was able to beat one of those players in the First Round at Roland Garros and in straight sets too.

Prior to the tournament beginning, Wild Card Emilio Nava had lost four of five clay court matches played and so the opening win here in the French capital will certainly have him feeling a whole lot better.

And he will need to be a whole lot better when taking on one of the top ten Seeds in the men's tournament and a player who won a significant title in Barcelona in preparation for the second Grand Slam of the season.

Holger Rune has reached the second week in each of his last three appearances at the French Open and has twice been as far as the Quarter Final to underline his effectiveness and comfort on the clay.

Dropping the first set in the First Round was followed by an increasingly dominant Holger Rune rolling through the gears and a solid server could become very dangerous with a bit more consistency on the return. It is a part of his game that needs a bit of development on the clay courts, but Rune may be able to get into the return games in this Second Round match and his eventual quality should tell.

One of the issues Holger Rune has had in his relatively young career is making matches harder than they should be and that makes it tough to cover lines like the one that has been set in this Second Round match. However, he will know the Emilio Nava game, which will help, and the American's serve has been something of a vulnerability when he has stepped up to face a top 100 Ranked opponent.

A couple of competitive sets cannot be ruled out and it would not be a big surprise if Emilio Nava takes one, but Holger Rune showed in the First Round that he can get stronger within matches and that may see him take this one away from the less experienced player standing across the other side of the net.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Diana Shnaider - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-6, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 28th May)

The first few days of the French Open are going to be busy for myself, so the threads will mainly be focusing on putting a few thoughts down noting why selections are being made.

The update from the tournament will be added as soon as Day 2 is completed.

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The 20 year old Alex Michelsen is continuing his surge up the World Rankings and he is operating at a career best number, but like so many American players, the clay courts are a real learning experience for him. This is a talented player, but many from the States are used to the hard courts and the relative quickness of the courts compared with the patient approach needed to constructing points on the clay.

He has found that tough to do, although a couple of wins in Geneva last week will have given Alex Michelsen a boost in confidence ahead of a first match in Paris.

Prior to the two wins last week, Michelsen had won just two of the nine matches played on the clay courts this season and is lack of experience has been telling. The service numbers have really taken a dent with Alex Michelsen not getting as many cheap points as he may do on the faster surfaces, while the inexperience on the red dirt has not helped when it comes to constructing return points.

The First Round match is not against the strongest clay court player, but Alex De Minaur is competent enough on the surface.

He has not had a lot of wins on the clay over the last several weeks, but De Minaur has not been given too many kind draws and defeats to the likes of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas can be forgiven. The Australian did beat Nadal in Barcelona before losing to the Spaniard in Madrid, while Alex De Minaur has beaten the players he would have expected to beat and perhaps lost to those he wouldn't expect to better.

The serve can be vulnerable, but De Minaur looks to be the stronger player when it comes to the return and he should be able to beat Alex Michelsen with some comfort by the time all is said and done.

Alex Michelsen did beat Alex De Minaur earlier this season, but that was on a hard court and the latter can earn some revenge with a big win in the First Round at the second Grand Slam of the season.

Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Felipe Meligeni Alves: The majority of the top contenders usually avoid playing in the week prior to a Grand Slam beginning, but playing in Geneva has proved a good building block for Casper Ruud. He won that title for a third year in a row on Saturday and has followed the last two by reaching the French Open Final, albeit coming up short against Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

With so much uncertainty surrounding some of the other contenders, Casper Ruud fans have to believe that their man can go one better this time around.

He has long been one of the better clay court players and Casper Ruud has won two titles on the surface in the lead up to the French Open. He also reached the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, although the relatively early losses in Madrid and Rome were disappointing.

Casper Ruud will begin his French Open bid on Tuesday so he should be well rested by the time he is asked to take to the court. Being one of the top Seeds, Ruud has also benefited from a kind looking First Round draw, even if Felipe Meligeni Alves is going to be very comfortable on this surface.

The Brazilian reached a new career high World Ranking last month, but he is yet to have cracked the top 100 and so might be a little hardened to the conditions in Paris having coming through three Qualifying Rounds to earn a spot in the main draw. That will help Felipe Meligeni Alves mentally, but this is a significant step up in class compared to the opponents he has beaten to enter the First Round and the general level on which he operates.

Felipe Meligeni Alves has won four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this season to improve his career mark to five wins against such opponents. However, Meligeni Alves was well beaten by Lorenzo Musetti earlier this month who is the second highest Ranked opponent that he has played on the clay.

This is the first time these players are meeting so it may take Ruud a bit of time to understand what is coming back his way, but in a best of five set match, the expectation is that the World Number 7 will pull clear as it progresses.

Elena Rybakina - 6.5 games v Greet Minnen: An illness meant Elena Rybakina was not able to defend the title she won in Rome last year, but a couple of solid tournaments on the clay courts will have given the World Number 4 real belief ahead of her return to Paris. Last season she was not able to compete in the Third Round match at the French Open, but Elena Rybakina has shown enough on the clay courts in the last couple of years to believe she is a genuine threat to win the title.

Being in the opposite half of the draw to Iga Swiatek will help, although the World Number 1 remains the clear favourite to win the title.

Barring an upset on Monday, that will still be the case when Elena Rybakina takes to the court, but the focus has to be on winning this match and getting her own tournament off to a strong start.

Elena Rybakina and her team have to be happy with the draw that has pitted her agaisnt Greet Minnen in the opening Round.

The Belgian player has dropped down to World Number 86 after a poor run of results on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Greet Minnen has not had a single win against someone Ranked inside the top 100 and she has lost four matches in a row, while she has also suffered some one-sided defeats on the red dirt in 2024.

A major problem for Greet Minnen is that her second serve has proven to be a real weakness in her game and you have to believe Elena Rybakina will be able to exploit that. It has added up to pressure on the Minnen return game, but she will struggle to get a lof of joy from Rybakina barring a poor serving day from one of the favourites.

It is unlikely and Elena Rybakina may be able to get her French Open tournament off to a strong start.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 2-1, + 0.88 Units (6 Units Staked, + 14.67% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (May 28th)

The absence of Rafael Nadal has hurt the French Open, but the second major of the 2023 season still has plenty of storylines attached to it.

The organisers have been put under pressure to have more WTA matches in the showcase slots, but I do think that they are in a tough position. Some of the incidents in Madrid have been out of their control, while the Rome Masters have added to what many feel is a slightly disrespectful approach to the scheduling for the WTA Tour matches.

After having very few women's matches in the Evening Session slot that the French Open used for the first time twelve months ago, more eyes are on the approach that will be taken this year.

If I am being honest, I would be disappointed if I paid big money for a match that could potentially be over inside an hour, while some people do prefer the ebbs and flows of a best of five set match more than a best of three set match anyway. At the end of the day, the organisers do owe more to the paying public than anyone else and they have to find the balance between perceived 'fairness' and actually doing what is expected from them.

This is not an easy discussion in a world where people want to be seen to be doing the right thing even when they perhaps don't believe it is the right reasons for a decision being made. The fairest way would be to have two matches in an evening session, but clay court matches can go very long and I don't think that is the right approach either, but simply picking seven women's and seven men's matches over the course of two weeks doesn't feel correct either.

An improving WTA Tour will make it easier and I do think the stronger results produced by three top names will make the entire appeal of the Tour stronger too. Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are trying to create a new 'Big Three' and I do think the WTA will benefit if these three players are able to lead the way and start picking up multiple Slam titles.

I do think they are all capable of winning the title in two weeks time and all three have a clay title under their belt over the last two months, although Rybakina and Sabalenka perhaps come into the French Open with fewer health concerns than Iga Swiatek.

There will be some challengers behind these three players, but I think the confidence the top three names are playing with makes them favourites to win all of the Slams left and I do think, as mentioned, that this will benefit the Tour.

No Rafael Nadal has opened up the top of the men's tournament and Daniil Medvedev winning in Rome might have just created a new threat on the surface with the Russian player previously describing how much he hates playing on the clay.

He played well in Paris twelve months ago and I do think Medvedev is a threat to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, while Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have belief in their own tennis.

I think it is going to mean a fascinating two weeks in Roland Garros which gets underway on Sunday as a number of First Round matches have been scheduled for the day.

A couple of really poor tournaments meant I have taken a step back from the Tennis Picks in the lead up to the French Open, but that is something that I will be prepared to do in 2023 in a bid to reverse the poor 2022 numbers.

There will be a thread for each day through the entirety of the Tournament and I am looking for the kind of results that I came away with from the Australian Open back in January.

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Laslo Djere: He might not be considered as a genuine title contender in Paris over the next two weeks, but Andrey Rublev has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open in two of the last three seasons and I think he can come through what is an awkward looking First Round match here.

It should be noted that Andrey Rublev was a First Round loser in 2021 between the Quarter Final runs and so he might be a little vulnerable, especially against someone who is quite happy playing on the red dirt like Laslo Djere.

However, there is a gap in the level of tennis that the two of these players can produce and I think that Andrey Rublev will be able to lean on the fact that he has had the better of their previous meetings on the Tour. The match played at the US Open between these players did need to go the distance so there will be encouragement for Laslo Djere, but the latter will have to serve well and he will need a bit of help from Andrey Rublev and not hitting the kind of level he can on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has a 3-4 record against top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2023, but his numbers have taking a hit and I do think he could struggle to stay with Andrey Rublev over a best of five set match.

Andrey Rublev has broken in 32% of return games played on the clay courts in 2023 and he did win the Monte Carlo Masters, while following up with a couple of Fourth Round appearances in Madrid and Rome. He is clearly enjoying playing on the surface and Rublev has been pretty consistent against the opponents faced and I do think he can cover this handicap mark even if this match needs to go at least four sets.

Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Plenty of headlines would have been made by Mikael Ymer in his last tournament, but none of them for good reasons after an argument with the umpire escalated to the Swedish player cracking his racquet against the umpire's chair.

It led to the Disqualification and means Ymer has not played as much clay court tennis in preparation for the French Open as he may have hoped.

The serve is not a strength for Mikael Ymer and that leaves him more vulnerable on the slower clay courts with every point being a challenge to win. He did reach the Third Round in Paris last year before being taken apart by Stefanos Tsitsipas so has to be respected, but I would expect a clay courter like Lorenzo Musetti to have too much for his opponent in this interesting First Round match.

Lorenzo Musett is into the top 20 of the World Rankings and he has long been thought of right up alongside Jannik Sinner as the future of Italian Tennis. Injury issues have perhaps hindered the progress in the last couple of years, but Musetti is very comfortable playing on the red dirt and he has the kind of numbers that suggest he will have too much for Mikael Ymer.

The difference I expect to see is that Lorenzo Musetti may get a few more cheaper points on the serve, while he can match the kind of return game that Mikael Ymer may have felt is a strength against many on the Tour.

When they met on an indoor hard court, Lorenzo Musetti was the solid winner and he did create a lot more Break Points on the day, although Mikael Ymer had twelve himself. I do think we will see a few breaks of serve in this one, but Musetti should be able to earn a few more than Mikael Ymer and I do think it will put the Italian in a position to win and cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2022- Gervonta Davis vs Rolando Romero (May 28th)

I understand the decision made by Eddie Hearn to take Matchroom Boxing to another platform that was offering a lot more money than Sky, but last weekend underlined the downside of the move.

Moving onto an app means there is far fewer eyes on the product than there should be and you can tell that is frustrating Hearn.

He was critical of his former partners at Sky for not promoting the Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano fight last month, but this really should not be a surprise to him. During his time with Sky, there was little to no mention of the Deontay Wilder trilogy with Tyson Fury that was going to be shown on a rival channel so Eddie Hearn must have known what to expect.

And last weekend it showed in the ticket sales for a main event that really was one of the better fights that Matchroom have promoted in the United Kingdom for a long time.

Joshua Buatsi and Craig Richards produced a really good fight that showed both are at World level, but it is such a shame they did not have the crowd, nor the television backing that the fight deserved.

Will things change? Maybe not any time soon, but you can understand why it sounds like Anthony Joshua wants to remain with Sky for his own fights and that rumours suggest Dillian Whyte is now a free agent ready to do business with whoever he likes.

Matchroom will push on with DAZN, but for the majority of fighters on the platform it will feel like they are perhaps not moving ahead to be PPV stars as they may have been if performing on the Sky/BT platforms instead.

The bigger question for Eddie Hearn may just be how he can keep those fighters well paid and happy and not lose them to rivals who have strong backing from the partners he left behind.

In reality it shouldn't matter to fight fans as long as we get to see what we want and at a reasonable cost- the Buatsi-Richards fight was a really good one and the win for Joshua may just have put him in line for a huge fight in the Autumn.

He is highly Ranked and due a World Title shot and Joshua Buatsi may have benefited from the news that Canelo Alvarez will move back down to Super Middleweight and take on rival Gennady Golovkin.

That should mean Dmitry Bivol is looking for a big fight and there is plenty of talk of him coming to London again to take on another British World Title hopeful. It would be a huge fight for the British fans at the O2 Arena and one that would deserve big numbers to attend.

Last weekend also saw David Benavidez and Zhanibek Alimkhanuly both win impressively and both will be looking for some big fights in the months ahead.

And definitely keep an eye on Andrew Cain who impressed again as he continues to step up his level of competition.

Gervonta Davis vs Rolando Romero

There is no love lost between two fighters that are currently both under the Mayweather promotional banner, although the suggestion is that Gervonta Davis may choose a different path at the end of this fight.

Both Davis and Rolando Romero are very familiar with one another and seem to have had an issue way before they signed up to fight last December.

It was a bout that has to be postponed when serious allegations were made against Rolando Romero, but those have been withdrawn and that means we get a chance to see this one on Saturday night.

Gervonta Davis had to dig very deep to beat Isaac Cruz, a replacement for Rolly Romero, but he remains unbeaten and it was only the second time he was taken the distance.

Rolando Romero is also unbeaten and has twelve stoppages in his fourteen wins and he has been talking up his chances. Some find him a little obnoxious, perhaps even a little immature, but Romero is convinced he will not only win, but beat Gervonta Davis in the First Round.

This is a big step up though for Rolando Romero and his resume is not one that will worry Gervonta Davis. It has also been hard to shake off the fact that Romero is fortunate to still be unbeaten having looked like he lost against Jackson Marinez and I do think his style is tailor-made for Davis to produce a highlight reel KO.

There is no doubting that Rolando Romero is the naturally bigger man, while Gervonta Davis has carried power up the weights, but does not hit as hard at 135 or 140 as he does at 130.

Even then, he hits hard enough to hurt someone that should not be hard to find and I think the come-forward basic approach of Rolando Romero is going to see the speed and countering of Gervonta Davis drag him onto something big very early.

We are going to learn a lot about Rolando Romero on Saturday night, but I think Gervonta Davis will prove to be a step above his current level and can win this fight in the first half of the Twelve Rounds scheduled.

Before the main event, Erislandy Lara will continue his run in the Middleweight Division as he has his second fight at 160.

The close draw with Brian Castano at Light Middleweight looks all the better considering the latter's performances, but Erislandy Lara is focusing on himself and trying to win a World Title in the Middleweight Division.

There are some potentially big fights ahead, but this is another tick-along moment for him as he takes on veteran Gary O'Sullivan who has regularly come up short when fighting at World level.

Three of the four losses suffered by O'Sullivan have been in stoppages, although there hasn't been a consistency to those either. He was blown away by David Lemieux in the First Round, but managed to last Seven Rounds with Chris Eubank Jr and Eleven Rounds with Jaime Mungaia.

Erislandy Lara did win his first Middleweight fight very early, but I don't think Spike O'Sullivan is going to be as easy to get rid of in this one.

The former is the better boxer and may look to build a lead and break down O'Sullivan over the course of the fight, and Erislandy Lara has looked to be more aggressive as he ages.

I have no doubt that Lara will want to make a statement by stopping Gary O'Sullivan earlier than Jaime Mungaia did, but he will likely have to be patient. I think the first step for Erislandy Lara will be to just wear down the O'Sullivan tank with movement and pot shots and I think that will see the Irish fighter slow down enough for Lara to really plant his feet and let some big shots go.

A small interest on Lara to get the job done in the Championship Rounds is the play as he looks for bigger fights at Middleweight.

MY PICKS: Gervonta Davis to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Erislandy Lara to Win Between 9-12 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 17-29, + 15.06 Units (84 Units Staked, + 17.93% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2022 (May 28th)

A really frustrating day for the Tennis Picks reminded me why I do get frustrated when you have a week in which a number of players miss a cover by a small margin, especially those who have got to Match Point or get to serve for the match.

There was another couple of bad luck losses on Friday with Victoria Azarenka somehow failing to serve out the match at the end of the second and third set in a very tight loss.

Those moments would have made all the difference for the totals for the week, but a miserable Day 6 has sent the numbers spinning in the wrong direction.

Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: A much more comfortable win in the Second Round compared to the First should be good news for Casper Ruud who remains active in the weaker half of the men's draw. He is a solid clay courter, even though the numbers are down from last season, and the early issues that Stefanos Tsitsipas has faced should give Ruud further confidence as he bids to reach his first Grand Slam Final.

Things should get tougher in the Third Round, but I do make Casper Ruud a pretty strong favourite to beat Lorenzo Sonego, despite the Italian being happy on a surface he will be very used to playing on.

It has been pretty straight-forward progression for Casper Ruud, but Lorenzo Sonego has made even shorter work of the first two opponents he has faced in Paris. He has yet to drop a set, while only one of those has seen Lorenzo Sonego lose more than four games, although this is another step up in level for Sonego to deal with.

Prior to the tournament, Lorenzo Sonego had not been in the best form with four losses in five matches played on the European clay courts. Overall he has held 80% of the service games played on the clay this season and broken in 22%, but the break numbers have dipped during the European clay court swing and that has to be a concern in this Third Round match.

The way Casper Ruud is able to serve on the clay, I would make it very difficult for Lorenzo Sonego to really get into a lot of those games and that will put pressure on his own serve. It is a clay court so there will be chances of course, but Ruud has been playing well on this side of his tennis for the most part and the question is whether the Norwegian can do enough on the return.

Casper Ruud certainly returned more effectively in the Second Round than the First, while the head to head with Lorenzo Sonego should offer encouragement and confidence.

The higher Ranked player has won all three previous matches between these two, including beating Lorenzo Sonego in the Rome Masters on the clay. The overall numbers in those head to head matches show Casper Ruud is breaking in 30% of return games played, but that jumped to 44% in that sole clay court meeting in Rome.

At the same time, Casper Ruud has held 88% of his service games and even the 80% mark in the clay court match is a serious edge and one that should see Ruud come through with a good looking win in this Third Round meeting.

David Goffin v Hubert Hurkacz: This has already been the best run that Hubert Hurkacz has enjoyed at the French Open having been beaten in the First Round on his three previous visits to Paris, but the draw has been a kind one and there is a much bigger challenge ahead in the Third Round.

Wins over two players Ranked outside the top 100 had to be expected for the Polish player, while he is bidding to reach the second week of a Grand Slam for just the second time. That is a pressure of its own for a player Ranked inside the top 20 and who may be losing big Ranking points next month when Wimbledon is over (where Hubert Hurkacz reached the Semi Final last season).

As solid as the clay court season has been for Hubert Hurkacz, he has only beaten one top 50 Ranked opponent since the Monte Carlo Masters and now has to face a confident David Goffin who has moved through the last couple of Rounds in four sets each time. After winning a title on the clay earlier on the clay courts and with a battling loss against Rafael Nadal under his belt, I do think David Goffin is playing some solid red dirt tennis.

His numbers on the clay courts back that up prior to the French Open, although David Goffin has to have a respect for Hubert Hurkacz who has a big serve that can build scoreboard pressure.

However, David Goffin handled that very well in the Rome Masters where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets, albeit in two tie-breakers. The Belgian had the stronger serving numbers on the day with 68% of service points won compared with 65% for Hubert Hurkacz, while David Goffin also created one more break point on the day too.

I am expecting this one to be very close with the match decided by a couple of points here and there, but I do think David Goffin can be backed as the underdog. He is the better clay court player in general and the mental edge of having won that match in Rome should do him the world of good.

The French crowd have been firmly behind David Goffin and I do think that can play a part in the outcome of this match and the underdog can edge through to the second week.

Holger Rune - 5.5 games v Hugo Gaston: There was a moment in the Second Round win over Henri Laaksonen when Holger Rune took a bad tumble at the back of the court at a time he was leading by two sets and a break up. He looks to have escaped a serious injury and the youngster will be pleased with the way he backed up the upset win over Denis Shapovalov in the First Round.

The clay courts have long been a surface that Holger Rune will have favoured, but he has already shown enough to believe he can be very effective on the hard courts too.

So many believe Holger Rune is destined for the top of the men's game with the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic coming towards the end of their careers and being in the bottom half of the draw gives Rune a good chance to have a really good run here in Paris. The Dane has won a title on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open and he also enjoyed a strong run in Lyon last week.

The numbers produced on the clay courts certainly make it correct to have Holger Rune favoured in this Third Round match, but the inexperience could be a slight worry.

For starters he is playing in Paris where the home crowd are going to be firmly behind Hugo Gaston, who has surprisingly made it through to the Third Round at his home Slam after a poor set of results leading into the tournament. Being at home has inspired Hugo Gaston who has a unique style that can bamboozle opponents not used to seeing the tennis he produces and I think this is going to come down to how quickly Holger Rune gets to grips with the drop shots and volleys that Gaston will produce.

Dealing with the crowd is never easy in Paris, but I do think Holger Rune has the tennis to really put Hugo Gaston under pressure. The serve is still a work in progress so Gaston will have some chances, but I do think Holger Rune's 32% of return games ending in breaks on the clay courts before this tournament will mean the Frenchman has to fend off plenty of break points of his own.

Even if this match goes four sets, Holger Rune should have the opportunities to cover this big handicap mark and I think he will end the strong Hugo Gaston run in the Third Round.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 games v Mikael Ymer: There are some questions for Stefanos Tsitsipas to answer as he bids to reach the second week at Roland Garros once again and that is largely down to the previous two performances in the tournament being underwhelming to say the least.

He had to come from 2-0 down against Lorenzo Musetti and then surprisingly dropped a set to a Qualifier in the Second Round after being pushed much more than expected throughout the match. There has been some illness around the French Open so you do have to wonder if he is fully healthy, or another suggestion is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is not handling the pressure of being the favourite to come out of the bottom half of the draw.

Either way it has not been the opening two Rounds that the Greek player would have wanted or expected and Stefanos Tsitsipas will want to make much more serene progress in this Third Round.

The match up looks a good one against Mikael Ymer who had shown no form ahead of the French Open before winning two matches in Paris. The draws have not been bad, but the Swede also benefited from playing an ill Daniel Evans in the Second Round and even then had to come back from a break down in the pivotal third set before winning in four.

Without a doubt, Mikael Ymer is going to have to be at his very, very best in this one and also perhaps hope the Stefanos Tsitsipas of earlier in the tournament is on the court in the Third Round match too.

There is little to suggest Mikael Ymer can really compete having held just 58% of service games played on the clay courts before the French Open began. A limited Daniel Evans managed to get into those service games regularly until he wore down at the end, while Tsitsipas has really enjoyed facing this opponent on the Tour.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has won all three previous matches between himself and Mikael Ymer and that includes two wins at Grand Slam level. All of those have been on the hard courts and Stefanos Tsitsipas is a stronger player on the clay courts, while he has really been able to hurt the Ymer serve.

In those matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas has broken in 55% of return games played, which is a remarkable number, and I would anticipate him having plenty of break points on this surface. You also cannot ignore how hard Mikael Ymer has found it trying to get into the Stefanos Tsitsipas service game with breaks in just shy of 9% of return games and I think this could be the most straight-forward win that Tsitsipas has had in the tournament so far.

His return numbers are much better on the clay courts than the hard courts so the successes Stefanos Tsitsipas has had in returning the Mikael Ymer should really show up here.

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: The hard courts are clearly the favoured domain of Andrey Rublev, but this is a serious competitor and is a much improved player on the clay courts these days. Winning the French Open is still a huge ask, but Andrey Rublev has managed to reach the Quarter Final in Paris in one of his three visits with the other two both ending in the First Round.

Now he has a couple of wins under his belt, Andrey Rublev will be keen to return to the second week of this Grand Slam and the first time he has done that since Wimbledon having lost disappointingly in the Third Round at both the US Open and Australian Open. He has played well in the tournament, but Rublev has lost his focus a couple of times and that has meant needing four sets in the previous two Rounds.

This is another step up in level for Andrey Rublev too, but Cristian Garin has not been at 100% or so it feels in the lead to the French Open.

A clay court specialist, Cristian Garin showed signs of getting closer to his best at the Rome Masters and he has won his two matches in Paris in solid fashion against decent opponents in Tommy Paul and Ilya Ivashka. Those wins have to give the Chilean confidence to take into this Third Round match, but he was well beaten by Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Zverev in clay events prior to the French Open.

Cristian Garin does have a vulnerable serve which can be exploited by someone as aggressive as Andrey Rublev, but the Garin return will be the key to the outcome of this match. If he can find a way to get into the Rublev service games and build pressure, this could be a competitive Third Round match, but it won't be easy against someone like the World Number 7 who has held 81% of his service games on the clay courts in 2022.

It has been a particularly dangerous weapon for Andrey Rublev when facing opponents that are not Ranked inside the top 20 and I think that will be the key to the outcome of the match.

The return has been effective too, but Andrey Rublev will have noted that two top 10 Ranked opponents that Cristian Garin has faced on the clay this season have held him to just 11% of return games with a break of serve. As long as he serves well here, Rublev will have his chances to break serve and I think this is a match he can win in three or four sets, which will give him every chance to cover the handicap set.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

David Goffin @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 36-36, - 5.94 Units (144 Units Staked, - 4.13% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2019 (May 28th)

We are going to get into a more familiar pattern of the Grand Slam format from Wednesday onwards when the beginning of the Second Round matches are scheduled to be played.

Before that the final First Round matches have to be completed on Day 3 at the French Open and there are still one or two big names that have to get their tournaments underway.

I've mentioned the French Open is unique in terms of having a Sunday start at a Grand Slam and playing the First Round across three days, but there is another uniqueness to the event which is going to be less popular for the fans. In the coming years it will be changing, but the French Open is the only Grand Slam without a roof for the Tennis and the weather expected on Tuesday and Wednesday has to be a concern for the organisers.

The other three Grand Slams don't just have a roof on the main court, but have additional roofed courts now with Court 1 at Wimbledon ready for an adverse conditions too. Soon the French Open will be joining the ranks as Chatrier is expected to have a roof in time for the 2020 tournament, but for now it could be a couple of days of frustrations for the viewers and the fans.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v John Millman: We have seen a couple of players who went deep into events that finished on Saturday already exit the French Open in the First Round and that may be a concern in backing Alexander Zverev here. A relatively poor clay court campaign saw the German decide to take a Wild Card into the event in Geneva to build some confidence and he managed to see off Nicolas Jarry in three sets in a rain affected Final on Saturday.

With the way the French Open First Round is split over three days, Zverev has been in the right half of the draw and also received a Tuesday start. It should mean he is fully recovered from his title exploits in Geneva, although the exits of Nikoloz Basilashvili and Dayana Yastremska does show how difficult it can be for players to perform in the week before a Grand Slam is set to begin.

While the Zverev numbers have remained pretty good for the most part, they are down on 2018 and it has led to one or two defeats that you may not have expected. I still think there is real room for improvement behind the serve considering how big Zverev's shot is, but the bigger factor in 2019 on the clay courts has been the fewer return points being won which has led to fewer breaks of serve naturally.

There is some pressure on the German to defend his Quarter Final points from last season if he is going to prevent a slip down the World Rankings. The French Open remains the only Grand Slam in which Zverev has managed to reach the last eight and that is another disappointment for a player who has performed so well at Masters level and below.

The opening match here is far from an easy one for Zverev when he faces battling Aussie John Millman who has performed decent enough on the clay in the last couple of years. However a deeper look at the opponent level shows Millman has yet to win a match at the French Open, while he is also 0-4 when facing opponents Ranked in the top 50 on this surface in 2019 and 1-2 in 2018.

Combining 2018 and 2019 numbers we can see that Millman has held 65% of the service games played on the clay courts against top 50 Ranked opponents and I would expect Alexander Zverev to make hay against that number considering he has broken in 30% of return games played on the surface.

I think Millman could also aid Zverev in getting settled into this tournament considering he has only broken in 15% of return games against the top 50 Ranked players he has faced on the clay courts in the last fourteen months. The slight lack of confidence in Zverev's game is an issue when it comes to covering this amount of games, but he should have the chances to do that as long as there isn't too much lingering fatigue from his Geneva title win.


Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 games v Daniel Evans: A year ban for taking cocaine came at the wrong time for Daniel Evans who had been playing some of his best tennis in his career at that point. The British Tennis Association did not really offer any support to Evans who had to take responsibility for his own mistakes and, unlike Maria Sharapova, Evans has had to claw his way back up the World Rankings without a host of Wild Cards into bigger events to leap forward.

Daniel Evens himself won't complain about where his career has ended up and there have been signs that he is returning to some of his more effective tennis that took him up to World Number 41 at the peak of his powers. He is now back in a position to earn his spot in the main draw of Grand Slams, and the next couple of months are very important to Evans with the grass court season coming up to really put some strong Ranking points on the board.

That doesn't mean he is heading to Paris with little ambition as he gets set to take on veteran Fernando Verdasco in the First Round. It has not been a great clay court season for Verdasco, but he looked to be getting better after overcoming an injury and also spending time away after the birth of his child just prior to the clay court campaign beginning.

One of the main areas of concern for Verdasco has been the return of serve which has seen him break in 22% of return games in 2019 compared with 28% in 2018 on this surface. He might find room to have more success against the Evans serve which is not that strong on any surface, but that is particularly highlighted on the slower clay courts.

I think we will see service games in which Verdasco struggles too, but Evans could be under immense pressure to take his chances when they come about. At some stage I think that will tell as Verdasco is able to pull away for a solid win against an opponent who is making only his second appearance at the French Open having been worn down by Tommy Robredo in 2017.

Something similar can happen here for Verdasco who has played some solid opponents on the clay courts that have affected his numbers. The veteran is someone that can be difficult to trust and he can be vulnerable in the early Rounds of Slams, but I think Verdasco is comfortably the stronger clay court player and looks like he will have more success on the return of serve than Evans in this one.

Even in a four set win I think Verdasco could find the breaks of serve that can lead to him covering this number.


Stefano Travaglia - 1.5 sets v Adrian Mannarino: When you come through the Qualifiers the chances are you are not going to receive the most favourable of draws in the First Round of a Grand Slam. In all honesty Stefano Travaglia has to be very happy with the one that has been presented to him and the Italian could soon hit the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time in his career.

It was last month when Travaglia reached a new career best Ranking of Number 108, but winning three matches to reach the First Round of the French Open helps his cause to move back towards that mark.

Anyone who has not reached the top 100 of the World Rankings at age 27 can't really be considered as a threat to go deep into the tournament, but Travaglia has received a kind draw. Take away the fact that the home crowd will get behind Adrian Mannarino and I am struggling to think of too many better opponents for someone who is looking to win just his third ever Grand Slam match.

The Italian only dropped one set on his way through the tough Qualifiers, but the general tournaments we tend to find Travaglia is on the Challenger circuit. He has had limited experience of clay court matches at the main ATP level, although Travaglia played three such matches in 2018 and managed to hold 82% of his service games. His main issue was converting return games into breaks of serve and that could still be his Achilles Heel in this match.

However he is facing Adrian Mannarino who has never found his best tennis on the clay courts. This year he is only holding 63% of his service games played on the clay courts, although the Frenchman has been returning about as well as he can on the surface which does make him a threat in this match.

Even playing in front of his home supporters may not matter to Mannarino who is 2-10 at the French Open and has held just 61% of service games played in the tournament. Looking through some of the players that have beaten Mannarino in Paris does not inspire a lot of confidence in a player who may be looking forward to moving back onto the grass where he has tended to play much better tennis.

It can be difficult backing someone as inexperienced as Travaglia to be able to exert enough pressure to win a Grand Slam match, but he should have the superior service numbers on the day. As long as the confidence of coming through the Qualifiers has not been lost in the last few days, I think the Italian will win this one in three or four sets against an opponent who has regularly struggled on this surface.


Fabio Fognini - 6.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The Monte Carlo Masters Champion may be considered a dark horse to win the French Open, but much depends on which side of bed Fabio Fognini gets out of before each match he plays. A player who is capable of beating Rafael Nadal on the clay courts is never too far away from a mental meltdown on the court and Fognini is going to need to keep his energy in check if he is going to go deep into the tournament in Paris.

Even though Fognini won the title in Monte Carlo, his general clay court numbers are far from overwhelming. The serve has always been one of the weaknesses of the Fognini game and he is holding just 72% of the service games he has played on the clay courts in 2019 which always makes Fognini vulnerable.

Fognini has always been an effective returner on the clay though and that is a key reason I think he can get the better of compatriot Andreas Seppi who has really had a difficult time on the clay courts this season.

Andreas Seppi has lost all six clay court matches played in 2019 and the real worry for him has to be the fact that some of those defeats have come to players Ranked towards the bottom of the top 100. He has really been struggling to look after his serve, but unlike Fognini we have seen Seppi break in just 10% of the return games played which has led to some heavy losses.

After losing the first five matches to Seppi on the Tour, Fognini has won the last five between these compatriots. The last of those came here at the French Open two years ago and Fognini was able to win in straight sets and by a margin of seven games on the day.

While I am not that keen to get behind Fognini too often, this looks a good chance to do that. He will have games that he throws away behind serve, but I think Fognini's return game is in a healthy state and that should see him put a lot of pressure on Seppi and what has been a struggling serve.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: If you were going to name one of the more surprising Grand Slam Champions of recent years on either the men's or women's events then I would imagine Jelena Ostapenko's name would be close to the top of the list. It has only been two years since the Latvian blitzed her way through the French Open draw to take the title home, but Ostapenko has struggled to maintain that kind of standard and has slipped down to Number 39 in the World Ranking.

Being Unseeded at a Grand Slam does mean the draw can be unkind, especially if you end up facing one of the top ten Ranked players in the tournament. While Ostapenko has avoided that fate, she has been paired with the ever improving Victoria Azarenka who is close to moving past her in the World Rankings.

Azarenka is also Unseeded here as she has struggled at key moments in matches to really put a strong together a strong run up the World Rankings. The Belarusian reached a couple of Quarter Final matches on the clay courts over the last couple of months and Azarenka has played some decent tennis on the red dirt even if it is perhaps not her favourite surface.

Much stronger performances behind the serve have really helped Azarenka compared with 2018 when she was just 1-3 on the clay courts. There has also been an improvement on the return of serve and Azarenka is someone who will believe she can cause one or two problems whilst building on her First Round exit from twelve months ago to improve her World Ranking approaching a better time of the season for her.

Jelena Ostapenko had a memorable two weeks in Paris two years ago, but her performances in 2019 on the clay courts have not been for the scrapbook. An injury in Rome meant she could not complete her match with Mihaela Buzarnescu and that has to be another concern for a player who has suffered First Round exits in Paris either side of the title win in 2017.

Over the last fourteen months Ostapenko is just 4-7 in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts. That number is 1-4 in 2019 and there has been a real decline in her service and return numbers which could see Azarenka really dominate this match.

I have to respect the fact that Ostapenko is capable of taking the racquet out of any opponent's hands when she is hot, but Azarenka is a big hitting player herself and should be playing with a lot more confidence. Covering this number won't be easy, but I think Azarenka can do that against the former French Open Champion.


Monica Puig - 4.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: I've mentioned Jelena Ostapenko as one of the more surprising Grand Slam Champions out there, but Monica Puig's Olympic Gold Medal success in Rio de Janeiro really came out of left field too. While a talented player, Puig has struggled to put the run of performances together to really be challenge much higher up the World Rankings than her current Ranking of Number 59.

Even Puig's peak Ranking is 'only' Number 27 and she is a player that can be as wonderful to watch as she can be frustrating when not playing at her best.

The run to the Strasbourg Quarter Final last week has at least kept Puig playing with some confidence to go into the French Open. In something of a down year in terms of her serving on the clay courts, Puig has shown improvement behind that weapon on both the first and second serves in 2019 and maintained decent returning numbers to help put the wins together.

Last year Puig also beat Kirsten Flipkens for the first time in four professional matches between the players and I can understand why the Puerto Rican is such a favourite to win this match too. Kirsten Flipkens has long played her best tennis away from the red dirt and the Belgian has lost all four clay court matches in 2019.

I would imagine Flipkens is going to be keen to get the grass court season going and she has won just two of her last seven matches at the French Open. It is going to be difficult for her to improve that record if the second serve continues to be as vulnerable as it has been for Flipkens who is then under pressure to do better on the return of serve than she has been able to do.

On her day Flipkens can frustrate opponents and really make them work hard to break her down and that is a potential worry in opposing her. Someone like Monica Puig can also be guilty of having a run of unforced errors which adds to the concern, but Puig has been playing with a lot more confidence than Flipkens at the moment and I think that will lead to a good looking win on the scoreboard in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefano Travaglia - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 35.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mikael Ymer - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Priscilla Hon + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chloe Paquet @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 15-8, + 10.78 Units (46 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2018 (May 28th)

The majority of the matches scheduled for Sunday managed to get through on Day 1 at the French Open despite some sketchy weather reports in Paris. The first few days of the tournament do look like they will be affected by the weather, but the split of the First Round across three days should ensure the tournament remains on track.

Sunday looked to have started serenely with the top names all managing to get through without any scares, but then we have Venus Williams and Jelena Ostapenko both beaten in the First Round.

Williams' defeat is perhaps less of a surprise considering she has not had a lot of clay court success, but Ostapenko going out in the First Round as the defending Champion was a real upset and opens up the Third Quarter of the women's draw.

Later on David Goffin had to dig deep to come from 0-2 down in sets to beat Robin Haase in five sets- while it is always a positive to get through in the Grand Slams, Goffin may feel he should not have had to come from such a deficit having made some key mistakes at critical times in the first two sets.


On Monday there are a huge amount of First Round matches scheduled with some of the leading contenders all set to get their Grand Slam underway. With more matches come more picks after a winning start to the tournament on Sunday thanks to Goffin's fightback against Haase.

A little more consistency with the Picks is the demand I have for myself though and those from Monday can be found below. I am putting out my analysis for the men's First Round matches to be played and I will add the women's matches to the 'MY PICKS' section for this day.

You can also read my outright preview and picks from the tournament here.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez v Stan Wawrinka: In a normal situation Stan Wawrinka would be going into this First Round match as a big favourite, but injury has held him back over the last several months and there are signs he has not fully recovered. At least Wawrinka has been able to take his place in the main draw of the last couple of events, but a 1-2 record on the clay courts aren't great reading for him.

Being back at the French Open may be a good time to turn things around for Wawrinka who has reached the latter stages of this tournament a number of times including the Final in 2017. As a former winner he knows how to get it done at the French Open, but the last time he was beaten in the First Round here happened to be at the hands of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who opposes him on Monday.

There are clear signs that Garcia-Lopez' game is on the decline which has to be considered, but he played well enough to push Dominic Thiem all the way in Lyon last week. That should have given the Spaniard confidence even if he has struggled against the very best players throughout his career on the clay courts.

Wawrinka has been going through some timing issues which is an issue for his style when coming off a long lay off and I do think it will be tough for him here. Garcia-Lopez has been serving well enough to put the pressure on Wawrinka who has struggled with his return in his three matches on the clay courts this season.

Perhaps the best of five set format will give Wawrinka a chance to work his way into this match, but I think it might come a little too soon for him. While Garcia-Lopez is not exactly one of the top clay courters in the world, he plays solid enough tennis to give himself a chance of upsetting Wawrinka at Roland Garros in the First Round for the second time in his career.

The Spaniard as the underdog has to be worth chancing in this one.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Carlos Taberner: This looks a really big mismatch as far as I can tell, although you have to take down some of the enthusiasm when backing a young player in a Grand Slam like I am going to do with Stefanos Tsitsipas. He doesn't have the same kind of experience as Alexander Zverev, but we have seen how the young German has had his issues in making a breakthrough at the Slam level and Tsitsipas is not near the level Zverev has produced all year around.

Even with that in mind, I think Tsitsipas has produced some high quality tennis on the clay courts in 2018 and he is clearly one to take note of for the future on this surface. That level is far above what Carlos Taberner has produced, although you have to respect the Spaniard for coming through three Qualifying Rounds to make the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.

That is important for me as I think there will be just as many nerves in the Taberner game as there is in the Tsitsipas game- while Taberner is not used to playing at this level, Tsitsipas is dealing with the new expectation around him which can play on a young players mind.

The Tsitsipas raw numbers are very encouraging though with a big serve being backed up by some strong returning and Taberner will have to have a career best performance by a huge margin to remain competitive. His serve is likely to be put under pressure by Tsitsipas and the latter has also managed himself well in matches against those players Ranked outside the top 100 with a solid 3-0 record against them on this surface in 2018.

Taberner is 0-3 when facing top 100 opponents in his career and I expect that to drop to 0-4 at the end of Monday. While he can make a set competitive, I think Tsitsipas' pressure will see Taberner wear down here over the course of a couple of hours and the 'Next Gen' star can work his way to a convincing win.

While a big number, Tsitsipas should have every chance of covering in the First Round thanks to a superior all around game than Taberner as long as he holds the nerves together.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The general feeling is that Novak Djokovic is still some way short of his best tennis, but there are definite signs he is getting back to his very best which were on display in the clay court season. While it would be a stunning win if he takes the title home in Paris, I do think Djokovic could be a real threat at the US Open later this season if he manages his improvement as he has been.

It is correct to assert that Djokovic has not reached the level that he was producing when he was the World Number 1 or when he won his French Open title, but the improvements being made are clear to see.

Djokovic was holding at 80% during the clay court swing and he is breaking at 31% which are down on his stellar 2015 numbers, but still very good compared to so many on the Tour. The display in losing to Rafael Nadal in Rome would have increased the optimism around Djokovic and those kinds of numbers should be good enough to beat Qualifier Rogerio Dutra Silva.

All credit to the Brazilian for making his way back into the main draw, but he hasn't had much success at Grand Slam level and his general numbers are influenced by a lot of success against players not of the quality that Djokovic will bring. Dutra Silva has been a challenge for the top 50 Ranked players he has faced this season by taking a set each time, but he is 0-3 in those matches and both his hold and break percentages drop significantly compared to the rest of his clay court numbers.

The Brazilian has a poor record against top 20 Ranked players on the clay, and I think it is a big ask for him to match last season by taking a set off a top player like Milos Raonic on the clay courts. Novak Djokovic is a much different challenge than Raonic and the strong wins he has put together on the clay courts in 2018 against the lesser lights highlights the challenge in front of Dutra Silva.

Once Djokovic gets into a rhythm, I expect a strong win to show up on the scoreboard in this match.


Dusan Lajovic - 4.5 games v Jiri Vesely: A first look at the number being set for the handicap of this match does make for interesting reading, but I think the match is on the racquet of Dusan Lajovic. He has been in very good form on the clay courts in 2018 and comes into this with real confidence, although Jiri Vesely has shown he is very adept at playing on this surface himself.

The problem for Vesely has been injuries and a loss of form have seen him slip down to playing Challenger events at the same time Lajovic has found a successful formula for playing on the main Tour. While Vesely would have been the favourite even two years ago, the layers have this right by flipping those odds.

Generally the numbers have been strong from Vesely on the clay courts in 2018 despite his 7-6 record which suggests there are still some confidence issues to overcome. Also it can't be forgotten that I've stated the majority of his time has been spent off the main Tour and Vesely is now 0-4 on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked players this season.

Losing to a player Ranked almost down at 500 in the World in the Heilbronn Challenger won't have given Vesely a lot to believe in and now he faces Lajovic coming in off another strong week on the Tour. There is room for improvement on the return of serve, but Lajovic's 83% holding percentage on the clay courts could set him up to put Vesely under some real pressure in this First Round match.

Lajovic has also been more successful when being drawn to players Ranked outside the top 50 when his hold percentage improves to 86% and his break percentage improves to over 36% in producing an 11-2 record.

It is Vesely who won their two previous matches, but both came back in 2013 and I think an improved Lajovic can get the better of the Czech player in three or four sets which will give him the chance to cover this handicap.


Rafael Nadal - 11.5 games v Simone Bolelli: This is a huge number for any professional tennis player to clear against another but just goes to show how strongly the layers feel Rafael Nadal is playing on the clay courts. Facing a competent clay courter like Simone Bolelli doesn't matter for the layers, and I tend to agree with them that the World Number 1 can produce a big performance to send out a marker to the rest of the field.

His Italian opponent is coming in as a Lucky Loser, although I am not sure how lucky Bolelli feels right now with the prospect of facing Nadal. This isn't the first time these players have met at Roland Garros with Nadal destroying Bolelli for the loss of five games a few years ago.

Something similar may happen if Bolelli struggles as he did in his final Qualifier when beaten 6-0, 6-2 by Santiago Giraldo who is nowhere near the level Nadal produces on this surface. While Bolelli's general clay court numbers will be strong, he is just 3-7 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last three years and he is going to be heavily reliant on the serve working to full power to have any chance in this one.

Realistically Bolelli isn't going to beat Nadal but the question is whether he can make this competitive enough to take advantage of the huge start he is getting. Rafael Nadal has been dominating opponents on the clay in 2018, but his service numbers are ever so slightly down on 2017 which could make it a tougher prospect of covering a huge number like he was used to doing in Paris last year on the way to a tenth French Open title.

He did cover this number in four of his six completed matches in Paris last season and Bolelli has to be a little fearful of a player who has seen his break percentage improve all the way up to 48% in 2017. Bolelli might be 0-6 against top 5 Ranked players in Grand Slam matches and half of those defeats have come by margins of eleven or more games.

Nadal in the current form is capable of handing out a heavy loss to anyone and I think he can cover this mark at odds against.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 11.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Su-Wei Hsieh @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 4-3, + 2.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 15.43% Yield)