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Showing posts with label Day 11 Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day 11 Picks. Show all posts

Friday, 27 March 2026

Miami Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Friday 27th March)

The Miami Open is down to the final three days of the tournament and the Women's Singles Final has been set for Saturday between two of the current top four players in the World Rankings.

Some may feel the second ATP Semi Final scheduled to be played on Friday is a de facto Final with the winner likely going to be set as a strong favourite in the title match on Sunday. The two other players left in the draw will certainly have something to say about that, but Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are playing at a really high level and the day of rest between the Semi Final and Final will certainly edge things in their favour.

A mixed Day 10 has continued to hold back the totals, but that is just the way the second half of this Masters event has gone.

One selection is available from the ATP Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11 and that can be read below.


Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: For the second Masters event in a row, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev meet and this is a match that really comes down to the racquet of the latter.

He must serve well if he is going to produce the upset, but it may be asking too much against the World Number 2.

In Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner dominated the second serve of Alexander Zverev and that saw him coast to a pretty comfortable win. Not only does that make it six wins in a row for Sinner, all on the hard courts, but the last three have been very one-sided and something will have to change for Alexander Zverev to even put a competitive performance on the board.

Protecting that second serve more effectively is important, but there is also considerable concern with the way Alexander Zverev has been dealing with the Sinner delivery.

In the last three matches, Alexander Zverev has not been able to win more than 31% of return points played and that has kept him under the pump. In their last meeting in Indian Wells, Zverev managed to win just 26% of return points played and he has now broken the Jannik Sinner serve once in the last five matches played.

During that same period, Alexander Zverev has been constantly having to fend off Break Points and it is very difficult to see much changing with the short turnaround between recent matches.

Jannik Sinner is playing exceptionally well in Miami and is on course to complete the Sunshine Double, which will give him a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court season as he looks to become the latest player to complete the career Grand Slam.

This is a big spread and a strong serving display from Alexander Zverev will make it very difficult to cover, but Jannik Sinner's recent head to head against the German makes him the right play in this second Semi Final scheduled for Friday.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 18-16, + 1.21 Units (33 Units Staked, + 3.67% Yield)

Friday, 13 March 2026

Indian Wells Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Saturday 14th March)

The WTA Semi Finals were played on Friday, but they both looked pretty tough to read.

Instead the focus is on the Saturday ATP Semi Final matches and the top two players in the World Rankings look like they will be very difficult to beat.

Things happen in sport, but this is the direction that has been taken by the Tennis Picks for Day 11 of the tournament and the reasoning can be read below.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Another solid win was produced in the Quarter Final and that has continued a fine winning sequence for Daniil Medvedev, which has included a title win in Dubai.

He has suggested the courts are playing faster than usual, which has helped in his ability to perform at Indian Wells, but Medvedev will also be well aware that he still needs to find another level if he is going to beat one of the top two players in the world.

Right now it is Carlos Alcaraz who is playing as the World Number 1 should and his form this week in Indian Wells has been very strong.

Of course the Spaniard plays at this level so often that it perhaps does not make anyone sit up and take notice as they would usually, but that also means Carlos Alcaraz has been able to pick up a couple of titles already this season and he still looks the player to beat.

These two players did split the first four meetings on the Tour, but in recent times Alcaraz has been pretty comfortable in the match up and the challenge for Daniil Medvedev is to turn that momentum around.

This match is also being played in a tournament where Carlos Alcaraz has crushed Daniil Medvedev twice before in 2023 and 2024, both times in the Final rather than the Semi Final. While some believe the conditions are slightly different this year, Carlos Alcaraz will have that mental edge in the contest, as well as the fact he has won four of the five hard court matches between these two Grand Slam Champions.

Daniil Medvedev has to make the best use out of his serve if he is going to upset the odds, but will also need to serve very well to make this competitive. He has held 97% of service games played in Indian Wells this year, but you also have to factor in the opponents faced and being that comfortable against someone who returns as effectively as Carlos Alcaraz is a big ask.

The World Number 1 has also been serving really well and in the previous hard court matches between these players, Carlos Alcaraz has held 89% of service games played compared with 76% for Daniil Medvedev.

Those are numbers that cannot be ignored and the Indian Wells conditions have favoured Carlos Alcaraz who has now won the title twice and reached the Semi Final in each of the last five years.


Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: In the years ahead, you have to believe the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will join an elite list of players that have reached the Semi Final of every Masters event played.

The Big Four of the last era have been joined by Alexander Zverev and the World Number 4 is now looking to add a Major title to his list of accomplishments. There are going to be opportunities for Alexander Zverev, but the pressure is on the German to show he can beat the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz in big events.

On Saturday he has a chance to prove himself when he faces the World Number 2 in the Semi Final in Indian Wells, which has long been considered the unofficial 'fifth Slam'.

The best of three set format should provide another chance with Alexander Zverev finding it tougher to come through those big Grand Slam matches, and it is imperative that he serves well.

Outside of one troubling match, Jannik Sinner has looked supremely confident here at Indian Wells and he crushed Learner Tien in the Quarter Final.

Players of this stature are judged on how many titles they win and so it is a huge disappointment for fans of the World Number 2 that he has yet to make a Final, never mind actually winning a title.

Over the coming weeks he should get a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz in the World Rankings, but Jannik Sinner knows that he is in an era where big titles mean so much more than World Ranking and he would be very keen to win this one in Indian Wells to remind people that there are a 'Big Two' and not just his Spanish rival coasting to title after title.

Jannik Sinner is playing well enough to win this Semi Final and he has beaten Alexander Zverev five times in a row.

Some of those matches have been really competitive where Zverev has used his serve very effectively, but the last couple of hard court defeats at the end of the 2025 season were worryingly one-sided.

In the last four hard court matches between these top four players, Alexander Zverev has only broken serve once and that is a problem for him against a quality returner like Jannik Sinner.

During the run to the Indian Wells Semi Final, Jannik Sinner has been much stronger returning than Alexander Zverev and that may show up here to set up what could be the Final that all of the fans want to see.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 11-13, - 3.98 Units (24 Units Staked, - 16.58% Yield)

Tuesday, 27 January 2026

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 28th January)

There really isn't much to complain about when you make three selections from the opening four Quarter Final matches played at the Australian Open and all return as winners.

Making it most pleasing is the ease in which the three selections came in- Alexander Zverev did need to win a fourth set Tie-Breaker, but should have won the second set Breaker and things would have been even more comfortable for him.

He has set up another Grand Slam meeting with Carlos Alcaraz, while Elina Svitolina's comprehensive win over Coco Gauff means the Ukrainian is back in the top 10 of the World Rankings and looking like she is playing at a level to finally win a Grand Slam title.

Of course, she only has the World Number 1, the top Seed and the three consecutive time Australian Open Finalist to beat to reach the showpiece event on Saturday evening.


This has not been a tournament of too many surprises, but that does mean there are four more good looking Quarter Final matches heading out on the Rod Laver Arena on Wednesday as we hit Day 11 of the Australian Open.

The two women's Quarter Finals look exceptionally strong, while wins for Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner would mean the men's event is going to be concluding with the top four players on the Tour facing off, although neither should assume that Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton are going to be willing to roll over easily.

On Day 11, three more selections are made from the matches scheduled to be heading out onto the courts as the first Grand Slam of 2026 gets closer and closer to crowning Champions.


Iga Swiatek v Elena Rybakina: When the draw was made a little under two weeks ago, most fans would have been hoping that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina were going to be on a collision course.

For moment Iga Swiatek fans may have been wondering if the former World Number 1 was going to be able to come through an awkward Third Round match that headed into a deciding set, but these two players have been untroubled for the majority of the tournament.

The numbers have been most impressive on the side of Elena Rybakina.

Not only has she won all four matches in straight sets, but Elena Rybakina has been serving at a really high level and that will always make her dangerous on the faster surfaces on the Tour. The first serve is about as good as any on the WTA Tour and Rybakina will know that she needs to land plenty of those if she is going to put Iga Swiatek under pressure.

However, it is the way Elena Rybakina has protected her second serve in the tournament which has really caught the eye, although there is no doubt that her opponent is going to offer a real test of that shot.

Before the tournament began, there were some question marks about Iga Swiatek and whether she had really prepared as well as hoped in the off-season.

Those concerns look to have been put to bed with her level in the event, although Swiatek has benefited from a kind draw with the toughest match being the Third Round contest against Anna Kalinskaya and that needed a deciding set.

The World Number 2 has been returning really well with over half of the return points being won by Swiatek, and that always puts an opponent under pressure. It is very unlikely that she will be able to do that against this Rybakina serve, but Iga Swiatek has tended to be able to get into the return games and eventually prove to have too much for the former Wimbledon Champion.

Elena Rybakina was able to break the mental hold that Swiatek may have had over her when beating this opponent at the WTA Finals a couple of months ago, but there is a feeling that the higher Ranked player was not quite at her best in Riyadh.

Another competitive match has to be expected, but Iga Swiatek may have the edge on the return of serve and that could see her through to the Semi Final.


Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: These two compatriots last met in the Final of the Canadian Masters in August 2024 and it was Jessica Pegula who got the better of Amanda Anisimova in three sets to win the title.

Fast forward to January 2026 and so much has changed for the latter, who is going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.

When Amanda Anisimova last faced Jessica Pegula, she was the World Number 132 and still making her way back onto the Tour after taking a break from the sport.

Now it is Anisimova who will go into this Quarter Final as the higher Ranked of the two players and she has also reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, which has given the World Number 4 a huge amount of confidence. The performances here in Melbourne have been from a player who has total belief in what she needs to do on the court and there is a consistency from Amanda Anisimova that will make her very dangerous.

Of course she has to respect Jessica Pegula who has been a consistent feature of the top 10 in the World Rankings and who has just beaten the defending Champion in the Fourth Round.

Prior to the win over Madison Keys, Jessica Pegula had been crushing all opponents behind some spectacular performances, but that is partly down to the draw opening up for her. The win over Keys was solid enough, although it was a match that could have seen the momentum swing at a couple of key moments and Pegula may feel that she has to find another level when facing someone like Amanda Anisimova.

She has never been beaten on the Tour by Anisimova, which has to be noted, but Jessica Pegula will also be aware that this may be the best version of her compatriot to date.

Over the last twelve months there has been contrasting results when these two have faced top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- Amanda Anisimova has won seven out of ten in that spot, while Jessica Pegula has lost seven out of eleven.

Throughout her career, Jessica Pegula has just found things a bit too tough at the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments and that has happened more often than not. She can cause problems with her returning ability, but Anisimova may just have the slight edge at key moments and she can move through to the Semi Final at the Australian Open for the first time.


Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Lorenzo Musetti: It is not going to surprise anyone that 38 year old Novak Djokovic has produced declining numbers on the hard courts over the last couple of seasons.

However, all credit has to be given to the twenty-four time Grand Slam Champion that he continues to produce at a level that most mortals would consider very high.

The drop from the previous level is hard to ignore and makes it easy to not see Djokovic at the same light as previously, but this is a player that continues to look after himself very well and has all of the experience to deal with adversity.

He has yet to be given a real challenge at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court and receiving a walkover in the Fourth Round can only be a positive for him. It has been some time that Novak Djokovic has been making it openly known that he feels he has run out of steam at the business end of Grand Slams and not had the energy to beat Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, while also feeling that he would have to beat both to win a twenty-fifth Slam title.

Lacking energy cannot be an excuse when not having to go out on the court in what have been tough conditions over the last few days in Melbourne and Novak Djokovic is the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Lorenzo Musetti just crushed Taylor Fritz and so will be playing with a lot of confidence, while the Italian has easily had his best year on the hard courts. His opening to 2026 suggests Musetti can build on that, while he took a set from Novak Djokovic on the hard courts for the first time when facing him in the Final in Athens at the back end of the 2025 season.

Despite that, Lorenzo Musetti came up short and has lost all four hard court matches played against the former World Number 1 and so will have something to prove.

Here at Melbourne Park, Lorenzo Musetti has been serving pretty well and he is going to have to keep Novak Djokovic from taking control of rallies by producing a strong opening shot.

This has been a challenge for him against this opponent and that may show up over the course of the three plus hours that these two players will likely need to spend on the court.

Novak Djokovic will know that while he is struggling to keep up with the top two players in the world, like many on the ATP Tour, that there is also a closing of the gap between some of those climbing the World Rankings.

However, he still has some real aura on the court and Novak Djokovic can serve well enough to get out of one or two more jams compared with the World Number 5 and that should see the Serb come through in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 33-19, + 14.48 Units (106 Units Staked, + 13.66% Yield)

Tuesday, 2 September 2025

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 3rd August)

The US Open is set to bring together the very best players as we reach the business end of the tournament and there is much to look forward to.

The Semi Final lineup is set to be completed on Day 11 in New York City and the matches are now all scheduled to be played on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

We should see more competitive matches as the tournament comes to a conclusion, but the last couple of days have seen players move in front and ultimately hold onto their positions. The expectation is for one potentially long match on Day 11, but the favourites look pretty strong all around and that could show up on the scoreboard when all is said and done.


Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: The level that Jannik Sinner has been producing on the hard courts over the last season and a half on the Tour makes questions about him pretty easy... Can the opponent win enough games to give the World Number 1 something to think about, especially against the spread that has been set in these Grand Slam tournaments?

Jannik Sinner himself is barely being pushed and the numbers are quite frankly ridiculous.

Beating Alexander Bublik in the fashion he did in the Fourth Round had his opponent laughing at the end of the match and it is going to take a monumental effort to stop Jannik Sinner from defending the title he won here last year.

The challenge goes to his compatriot in the Quarter Final when Lorenzo Musetti steps onto the court and the latter has had Grand Slam successes in the past that will give him the confidence to compete. He has not enjoyed the best of hard court preparation results, but Lorenzo Musetti has looked pretty comfortable in New York City and he has won the last eleven sets played and completed.

Last year, Lorenzo Musetti beat Alexander Zverev on the hard courts of Vienna, but he is just 3-11 when going up against top 10 Ranked players on this surface. That includes a defeat to Novak Djokovic in Miami earlier this year when winning just four games and Lorenzo Musetti will know more than most about the development and improvement in the Jannik Sinner game.

The problem for Lorenzo Musetti when going up against the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts is that he has not been able to get enough out of his serve. If he struggles on that front again, Jannik Sinner is going to dominate the direction of this Quarter Final and it makes it very difficult to see how the World Number 1 is going to be stopped.

A bigger question is the spread, but you have to feel that Sinner is going to find a set with a couple of breaks of serve in his favour and that could be enough to see him surpass the number where it currently stands.

In the two previous matches between the players on the Tour, Jannik Sinner has held 100% of his service games which is compared with Musetti's mark of 61%.

That will need to be closed dramatically for this Quarter Final to be much more competitive and that seems unlikely right now.


Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: For the first time since January 2021 and the first time since returning to the Tour, Naomi Osaka has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam tournament.

She has 'only' managed to do that four times in her career... However, it is the conversion rate that stands out with Naomi Osaka winning the title each time she has reached the last eight in a Grand Slam with two of those successes being here in New York City and the other two at the Australian Open.

There is no doubt that Naomi Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts and reaching the Final in Montreal in the build up to the US Open has clearly given her a lot of confidence. The performances in the tournament have backed that up and the crushing victory over Coco Gauff in the Fourth Round will just have reminded Naomi Osaka of her capabilities both on this court and in general.

She will certainly respect her next opponent.

Twelve months ago, Karolina Muchova beat Naomi Osaka in the Second Round at the US Open and she was clearly the better player. Things did change when they met in Melbourne earlier this year as Naomi Osaka rallied and was comfortably the stronger player in a three set win in the Second Round at the Australian Open, but Osaka will appreciate the threat posed by the opponent on the other side of the net.

Karolina Muchova has shown her character by winning every match at the US Open in three sets and she has shown she can deal with crowd support being against her having overcome Venus Williams.

There hadn't been much form shown in the preparation tournaments for the US Open and Karolina Muchova's overall hard court numbers this year have been pretty average. The World Number 13 was just 4-7 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open, although Muchova does have a couple of wins over that level of opponent within this run.

She will need to step things up if Naomi Osaka continues to play at her current level, but you cannot completely dismiss Karolina Muchova.

It is that respect that gives pause for thought, and this is a player that is rarely beaten easily.

However, Naomi Osaka will take plenty of confidence out of handling Muchova at the Australian Open and has proven to be a player that can be very tough to stop when she has picked up momentum within a tournament.

Karolina Muchova has to play her game with all the spins and slices to try and disrupt Naomi Osaka, but if the latter is serving at the level she has produced in this tournament, she should have too much for the higher Ranked player.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There are going to be plenty of talk about the Wimbledon Final ahead of this US Open Quarter Final and you can completely understand why that will be the case.

It is the only time Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova have met on the Tour and it was the former who won the title in London without dropping a single game.

Credit has to be given to Amanda Anisimova for the way she has been able to recover and put some solid results on the board since that defeat, while credit has to be given to the American for making the Final at Wimbledon. However, there is going to be a significant mental hurdle to overcome in this Quarter Final against a player who won the Cincinnati title in the days before the US Open begun.

Iga Swiatek has not been at her absolute best in the tournament, but she was a dominant Fourth Round winner and she has only dropped a single set in New York City. The World Number 2 is also a former Champion here in 2022 and that is the kind of confidence that could make her very difficult to shift, no matter how well the home player has been playing for a number of months.

Amanda Anisimova was also a very comfortable Fourth Round winner and she has also only dropped a single set in her run to the Quarter Final here.

However, the American was only 2-2 in the build up to the US Open and her overall hard court numbers in 2025 will need to be significantly improved if Anisimova is going to find a way to the upset.

She is now a member of the top 10 in the World Rankings, but Amanda Anisimova has a 6-16 record against those players on the hard courts in her career. Last year she was 1-4 in those matches, but confidence will come from the fact that Anisimova holds a 2-0 record in that spot in 2025.

This is a much tougher test than facing Paula Badosa or Mirra Andreeva though and Iga Swiatek is not someone who is going to be overwhelmed by the crowd noise. The atmosphere can be pretty hostile when the crowd really get into the match, but Amanda Anisimova will have to make a fast start otherwise memories of Wimbledon will come flooding back, both for the player and those watching on.

Iga Swiatek's 6-1 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2025 cannot be ignored and she would have covered this spread in four of those seven matches. You have to feel that the World Number 2 is going to eventually get in control during this match and that ultimately is going to lead to her pulling away from one of the last two American players left in the women's draw.


Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has been the producing a couple of upsets, which have also pushed a couple of the Tennis Picks into a losing spot, and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be going for a third in a row.

Wins over Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are impressive enough, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has dropped a single set in those matches.

He will certainly not be in awe of facing Alex De Minaur in this Quarter Final, even if the latter is the higher Ranked player, and it is Felix Auger-Aliassime who is the only one of these two competitors that have reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam.

Alex De Minaur has become very consistent and he has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slam events played, although back to back events had ended before that Round. Getting over the line has proven to be a difficulty for someone like Andrey Rublev and there is a lot of pressure on Alex De Minaur to reach the last four considering the way the draw has fallen for him.

He will know that and that is going to build pressure against an opponent who has a serve that can take the racquet out of the hands of any opponent.

That is key for Felix Auger-Aliassime and it has been the reason he has been able to beat the last two opponents as scoreboard pressure has built up.

The Canadian will also be well aware that he is facing an opponent that does not serve as big as the previous two players beaten in the US Open and that should mean Felix Auger-Aliassime can expect to continue the successes he has had.

However, he is also facing an opponent that is not likely to beat himself and this has all of the makings of being one of the more competitive matches at the latter end of the men's tournament.

We have not seen too many of those in the last Round, but both players in this Quarter Final should be full of belief and the expectation is that we will need at least four sets and, potentially, have a match that goes the distance.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Wednesday, 9 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th July)

Four days remain at Wimbledon in 2025 and that means we are down to the last eight players at the tournament as the third Grand Slam of the season draws to a close.

By the end of Thursday, we will have the Ladies Final and the next Champion will be a step closer to achieving their aim.

Both favourites are rightly favoured in the Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11, although conditions are going to be far from easy with the temperature soaring in London.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: The Quarter Final proved to be a very exhausting occasion for Aryna Sabalenka, both mentally and physically, but she remains a part of the Wimbledon draw. After the win over Laura Siegemund, the World Number 1 admitted her thoughts had turned to leaving another Grand Slam without the trophy as the lower Ranked player's style bamboozled Sabalenka.

There were a lot of spins and slices, a change of rhythm between points and just the all-around grass court tennis style that so few play with these days.

Allowing her frustration to build, Aryna Sabalenka showed plenty of character and resolve to eventually come through in almost three hours on the court and the day of rest between the Quarter Final and Semi Final will do her good.

You can guarantee that Amanda Anisimova will emphasise with the Belarusian having reached the Final at Queen's Club last month before being beaten by veteran Tatjana Maria and all of the grass court nous that the older player had. That has not stopped Amanda Anisimova from building her confidence on this surface and a strong run through to the Semi Final will have added to her belief.

This is also a match up that Amanda Anisimova has enjoyed- she has won five of the eight previous matches against Aryna Sabalenka, although the World Number 1 will point out that three of the last four have been won by herself. That includes revenge wins over the American at the Australian Open in 2024 and French Open in 2025 having lost at both of those Slams to Amanda Anisimova in 2019.

Aryna Sabalenka will appreciate that she will enjoy this match up much more than the Quarter Final in that she is going to be opposed by someone who will want to hit through the ball as much as she will herself. That should mean an 'easier' rhythm to understand, although Sabalenka will be well aware of the threat that Amanda Anisimova will bring onto the court.

Both are going to be well aware of the importance of serving well- on what is expected to be a hot day, the ball is going to be tough to deal with if the server is playing at a top level.

The consistent serving at the tournament has been with Anisimova, but there is little doubt that the higher level can come from Aryna Sabalenka and that is where the World Number 1 may prove to have an edge. She has not always looked at her most convincing this year at Wimbledon, but Sabalenka has shown plenty of character to come through difficult moments and she may also be a bit more battle-hardened having had a tougher pathway into the Semi Final.

When they met at Roland Garros last month, Amanda Anisimova was being given a couple more games on the handicap and she was able to cover, despite a straight sets defeat. This time the spread looks a bit more manageable for Aryna Sabalenka to win and cover, just as long as the top Seed can deal with the nerves and tension she has displayed at the business end of Slams throughout her career.

A first Wimbledon Final will mean a lot to Aryna Sabalenka and she can win a big-hitting Semi Final.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Belinda Bencic: The second Semi Final in the Ladies tournament is the one occasion in this Grand Slam where players are actually scheduled to play on back to back days.

Both winners came through in straight sets on Wednesday, which will help, although there was a slight concern about Belinda Bencic's health having called for the trainer towards the end of the second set.

However, it is the Wimbledon Semi Final and that is going to mean the adrenaline will be used to push Bencic through.

A bigger test may be the opponent standing on the other side of the net, even if Iga Swiatek is playing in her first Wimbledon Semi Final too.

The Quarter Final win over Liudmila Samsonova was another solid one for Swiatek, although she will know that she needs to improve her serving having faced ten Break Points in that win. She saved eight of those, but Iga Swiatek had been much more dominant behind serve before that victory and she will look for that to be a big weapon for her against Belinda Bencic.

In previous meetings between the players, the Iga Swiatek serve has been a big advantage for her, although Belinda Bencic has shown her own qualities behind that shot. It was the key to getting past youngster Mirra Andreeva and the Swiss player is going to be well aware of the importance of trying to keep the former World Number 1 under the pump.

Playing on the grass should help, but Belinda Bencic is going to need to be healthy and it is important to note that Iga Swiatek has beaten her here at Wimbledon before.

That was in July 2023 and it will give the multiple time Grand Slam Champion a little more belief in her ability to make it through to a maiden Wimbledon Final. It is Iga Swiatek who has dominated the break points in recent matches against Belinda Bencic and she has been playing well enough to put the pressure on the World Number 35 if there is any lingering injury concern.

Matches between the pair have been competitive, but it is Iga Swiatek who is playing at a good enough level to work her way through to the Final behind a solid win.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 3-2, + 0.66 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.60% Yield)

Tuesday, 3 June 2025

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 4th June)

The big Semi Final that most would have anticipated on the women's side of the French Open tournament has been set on Day 10 and the winner of that match between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will go into Saturday's Final as the favourite to win the second Grand Slam of the season.

At the time of writing, neither men's Quarter Final match from Day 10 has been completed, but the thoughts already turn to the other half of the draws.

We have the top Quarter Final of the Round set to round out the day on Wednesday as the tournament ticks into the final five days and my thoughts on three of the four Quarter Final matches to be played on Day 11 can be read below.


Madison Keys + 3.5 games v Coco Gauff: Winning the Australian Open earlier this year came as a surprise, despite the obvious qualities that Madison Keys has shown throughout her career. However, it felt her best days were now behind her and that winning a Grand Slam would be something that she missed out on.

Instead Madison Keys stunned everyone to take the title in Melbourne, and she is perhaps having an even more surprising push to take the title at Roland Garros.

In 2018 and 2019, Madison Keys did reach the Semi Final and Quarter Final respectively at the French Open so she has previous on the clay courts, but there has been just one Fourth Round run since then. A Quarter Final run at Madrid was the outlier in the build up to the French Open, but that is a tournament where you perhaps get the least form guide for the second Grand Slam of the season due to the unique conditions at the event.

The serve has been key for Keys, pardon the pun, at the French Open with at least 69% of points won behind the delivery and that is going to be a big factor in determining the outcome of this Quarter Final. Madison Keys will be well aware that she is going to have to serve well against Madrid Runner Up Coco Gauff, who has been returning really well in the tournament as she looks to add to the US Open title she has won previously.

Winning the title in New York City is the clear highlight of the career so far, but Coco Gauff's most consistent Grand Slam results have been earned in Paris- this is the fifth year in a row she has reached the Quarter Final at Roland Garros, although half of those previous runs have ended in this Round.

Coco Gauff is still having some issues with the serve, but she has won at least 60% of points played behind this shot in three of the four wins to move through the draw. The real advantage Coco Gauff has had over her opponents has been on the return of serve with at least 53% of return points won in each of the previous matches in the tournament and at least five breaks of serve per Round.

Of course it has to be noted that the Madison Keys serve is the best that Coco Gauff will have faced so far in the tournament, but the higher Ranked American will be confident in being able to put the Australian Open Champion under pressure.

It is Madison Keys who leads the head to head and the only previous clay court match between the two was won by Keys in Madrid last year.

This is expected to be another close fought contest though and the best approach may be backing Madison Keys with the start on the game handicap to at least keep this competitive, especially as she has a real opportunity to win this one outright.


Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Lois Boisson: The French Open has been a disappointing event for those players that the public may have expected to see at the business end of the tournament, but Lois Boisson has surprised by making full use of her Wild Card to reach the Quarter Final.

Twelve months ago, Lois Boisson suffered an ACL injury on the eve of the French Open, which meant missing out on using her Wild Card and then spending several months on the sidelines rehabbing. She only returned in February and has been playing outside of the main WTA Tour in a bid to get up to match sharpness and also rebuild the Ranking points, which have seen her slip to World Number 361 as the French Open started.

Her peak World Ranking was Number 152 thirteen months ago, but Lois Boisson is already guaranteed to have a higher number at the end of the tournament.

Full credit has to be given to the 22 year old having beaten two Seeds in the four wins in Paris and both times having to do so in a final set decider to underline the grit and determination Lois Boisson has shown over the last year.

This is going to feel like another step up as she prepares to take on a younger player, but one who has shown massive potential and already sits inside the top ten of the World Rankings. Mirra Andreeva has every chance of finishing this tournament as a top four player, and her experience of reaching the French Open Semi Final last year will mean she should be able to handle the occasion.

Of course the atmosphere is going to be one in which the underdog is going to be receiving so much more support, but Andreeva will be happy to be going out second on Wednesday, which means the teenager can have a little more rest having admitted that she hates being first up.

The lower Ranked player has spent considerable more time on the court than Mirra Andreeva, which is a potential factor, and there have been signs that the Lois Boisson serve is beginning to become a vulnerability. As accumulated fatigue builds up, that serve is going to be come more and more appealing for Mirra Andreeva to attack and that may put the underdog in some pressurised spots.

Lois Boisson has continued to do enough on the return to stay in matches and that is going to be key for her here, but the feeling is that Mirra Andreeva is still playing at a level that may be tough for the World Number 361 to reach having invested so much into the tournament already.

Covering this handicap mark will not be easy, but the Mirra Andreeva level may see her pull away as the match develops and she may find the breaks needed to secure a relatively strong win on the scoreboard.


Alexander Zverev-Novak Djokovic over 39.5 games: As has been the case in recent years since the French Open added a Night Session to the schedule and sold the rights to that individually, there have been criticisms of the organisers for not placing a women's match in the 'limelight'.

It would be a complete surprise to all if people expected anything other than Alexander Zverev vs Novak Djokovic to have that scheduling spot on Day 11 at the French Open in what is the stand out Quarter Final of the last two days.

These two players faced off at the Australian Open Semi Final earlier in the year, but the match finished prematurely when Novak Djokovic was unable to play through an injury having dropped the first set. Last year, Djokovic's run at the French Open was ended in the Quarter Final due to another injury, but he did win the Olympic Gold here and the former World Number 1 looks to be peaking at the right time.

This is the SIXTEENTH year in a row that Novak Djokovic has at least made the Quarter Final at the French Open, which is an incredible achievement from a player who has had an incredible career. Two of the last four runs have ended without a Semi Final appearance, but the other two have finished with Djokovic lifting the trophy and his level over the last two Rounds will give him a lot of confidence.

Of course this is also a tournament in which Alexander Zverev has thrived and he will still be thinking about twelve months ago when leading Carlos Alcaraz in the Final. This has been the Grand Slam in which Alexander Zverev has played his most consistent tennis and he will be chasing a Semi Final spot for the fifth year in a row when taking the court on Wednesday.

He benefited from an early ending to his Fourth Round win, while Zverev has been producing at a consistently strong level as he has eased his way through the draw. Other players have taken the headlines, but that will not concern the World Number 3, even as he sits in the tougher half of the French Open draw.

The serve will be key for Alexander Zverev and it has been a strong weapon for him in this tournament- it has definitely felt like a more consistent shot for Zverev than Novak Djokovic's has felt for the former World Number 1 and it is imperative that the slight underdog serves well.

Both have produced solid returning numbers and that should make for a very good Quarter Final and one that goes potentially long, and certainly long enough to cover the total game line set.

Despite both being in the top ten of the World Rankings in recent years, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic have missed one another at tournaments. This is only the third meeting since November 2021, which is pretty remarkable, and one of the previous two ended in Melbourne after just one set had been played.

They have met in the French Open Quarter Final before, in 2019, and it was Novak Djokovic who was a very comfortable winner on that day. However, six years later, this one has all of the hallmarks of being a much more competitive contest and the expectation is that we will see at least four sets, which should set the match on the road to surpass the total games line if Zverev and Djokovic continue to play to the level they have been as the tournament has progressed.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys + 3.5 Games
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games
Alexander Zverev-Novak Djokovic Over 39.5 Games

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 22nd January)

If you ever forget about Novak Djokovic's greatness, there is always another match where he will make sure that all are reminded.

This time it was in the Australian Open Quarter Final as he came from a set down to beat Carlos Alcaraz and that despite obviously having some kind of injury issue to overcome.

The Spaniard will be hugely disappointed by his own performance, but Novak Djokovic battled as hard as he could to remain hopeful of winning a twenty-fifth Grand Slam at the Australian Open and moving clear of Margaret Court to hold the record all on his own.

You wouldn't put it past him, but the favourite remains Jannik Sinner who has a big Quarter Final on Day 11 at the tournament.

Illness rather than injury forced Sinner to dig deep in his Fourth Round victory over Holger Rune, but he will be hoping to have recovered with a full day of rest.

The two Women's Quarter Finals scheduled for Day 11 look like they have been priced pretty well, but the two Tennis Picks will be from the two Men's matches scheduled and can be read below.


Ben Shelton-Lorenzo Sonego over 41.5 games: Big names and big matches have been played in the Australian Open Quarter Finals on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are also some surprising players making their way into the last eight.

The Second Quarter of the Men's tournament has seen plenty of upsets over the first ten days of this Grand Slam and that means the highest Seed left is Ben Shelton, the World Number 20.

He is a significant favourite against Lorenzo Sonego, the World Number 55, who at 29 years old may not have too many better opportunities to reach the Semi Final of a Grand Slam. This is the first time that the Italian will be playing in a Grand Slam Quarter Final and that is where Ben Shelton has a big experience edge having reached this Round at the Australian Open in 2023 and later followed up with a Semi Final run at the US Open.

Ben Shelton is an improving player and the big challenge for him in the years ahead is to perhaps build up his return game to back up what is going to be a monster serve. That will especially be needed when facing the best players on the Tour at the business end of the Majors, but Ben Shelton feels he is mentally capable of hanging with just about anybody in these best of five set matches.

The serving has been exceptional at the tournament with 94% of games being held, but Ben Shelton's return continues to make matches tougher than they perhaps should have been. He has broken in just shy of 16% of return games played, and that has contributed to matches perhaps going on a bit longer than Ben Shelton would want them to go.

All of that should be tested by Lorenzo Sonego who has held 95% of his own service games through four wins, although the Italian is not as consistent with his serve as much as Ben Shelton.

However, Lorenzo Sonego has shown a bit more from his return game and that could be key in a match that is likely going to need tie-breakers to separate the players.

Overall both players are not at their best on the return and so there is going to be pressure to serve well, which gives Ben Shelton the edge.

They have met twice before on the Tour- Lorenzo Sonego won a Grand Slam match in four sets on the clay courts of Roland Garros, while Ben Shelton was able to earn the win in three sets at the Cincinnati Masters on the hard courts. Both players dominated on the serve in that match on the hard courts and the feeling is that this is a Quarter Final that will likely need four sets to separate the players with the narrow edge going with Ben Shelton.

If the match does go four, you have to believe the serving has been where it should be and that should see this total games line surpassed. Tie-breakers are likely going to be needed at least twice and the two players are capable of running through their service games to at least maintain energy.

Lorenzo Sonego has benefited from a very good draw so Ben Shelton is expected to win the match, but the Italian may just play a part in this Quarter Final and give the fans plenty of tennis to enjoy.


Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The home crowd and the player across the net are going to be factors in this match, but the biggest as far as Jannik Sinner is concerned is whether a day of rest between the Fourth Round and this Quarter Final is enough time to shake off an illness.

He was clearly struggling during his Fourth Round win over Holger Rune and the defending Champion would almost certainly have withdrawn if this was not a Grand Slam tournament.

The fact is that Jannik Sinner was able to get himself together and he will have had considerable time to get himself ready for this match. It has been scheduled for the Night Session on the Rod Laver Arena so that is also a positive in terms of time to prepare for Jannik Sinner, but he is taking on a home player who is the last hope to see an Australian Champion at this year's Open.

Before May 2023, Alex De Minuar had only reached one Grand Slam Quarter Final, which is surprising for the World Number 8- things have changed now having reached the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open Quarter Finals over the last several months and matching that run at the Australian Open means De Minaur has reached this Round for the first time at his home Slam.

He has been playing at a very solid level in Melbourne, but Alex De Minaur has not faced an opponent inside the top 30 of the World Rankings and this is a significant step upwards.

To underline the point, Alex De Minuar has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months on the hard courts, while he has lost seven in a row on this surface when facing top 10 Ranked opponents. The Australian has seen his serve attacked by the best players on the Tour, while Alex De Minaur's style of tennis has been exploited with the consistency of those in the top 10 meaning they have been able to protect their serve against him.

Jannik Sinner has been no different with nine wins over Alex De Minaur and eight of those being earned on the hard courts.

It was Alex De Minaur who won the first set played between the players on the professional Tour on the hard courts (not including the Nxt Gen Finals which are sets played up to four games, not six). Since that tie-breaker success in Sofia, Jannik Sinner has won fifteen straight sets on the hard courts against Alex De Minaur and the latter has won more than four games within a set just twice in that run.

The World Number 1 has held almost 91% of his service games played against Alex De Minaur on the hard courts compared with a 63% mark for the latter.

The serve has been a mighty weapon for Jannik Sinner in his run to the Quarter Final in Melbourne and you have to give him a considerable edge as long as he is virtually over the illness that was bothering him on Day 9 at the tournament.

Alex De Minuar will be given a huge amount of support, but he was beaten pretty routinely by Alexander Zverev in the French Open Quarter Final and by Jack Draper in the US Open Quarter Final. The head to head match up with Jannik Sinner has certainly not been in his favour and the feeling is that the defending Champion will have too much strength for Alex De Minuar in front of the home fans.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton-Lorenzo Sonego Over 41.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 24-10, + 17.86 Units (65 Units Staked, + 27.48% Yield)

Wednesday, 4 September 2024

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th September)

By the time Day 11 begins, there will be just eight Singles players left at the US Open.

This is the point in which the women's and men's events separate with each being showcased on different days, beginning with the women's Semi Final matches on Day 11.

Day 12 will be reserved for the men's Semi Final matches before the tournament is concluded over the weekend with the women's Final on Saturday and the men's on Sunday.

The last of the women's Quarter Final matches is scheduled for the opening match of the Day 10 evening session and so any selection from that match will be added to this thread.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Emma Navarro: Twelve months ago, Emma Navarro had just lost in the First Round at the US Open and the World Number 57 made little noise in the tournament.

Fast forward to September 2024 and Navarro is going to be cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time having surpassed her Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. This will mean even more to Emma Navarro who was born in New York and reaching the Semi Final is a big achievement.

She has already beaten the defending Champion and now faces the 2023 Runner Up, although most will feel that Aryna Sabalenka is a much greater test than anyone that Navarro has beaten so far.

After missing Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics, Aryna Sabalenka has shown she is back to her very best with a title win in Cincinnati followed by a very strong run in this tournament. Getting over the Semi Final hurdle had proved too much for Sabalenka to handle mentally, but she is now a two time Grand Slam Champion and did make the Final at Flushing Meadows twelve months ago.

The World Number 2 crushed Emma Navarro at the French Open, but the belief in the lower Ranked player will be fuelled by the win she has over Aryna Sabalenka at the Indian Wells Masters on a hard court. On that day Navarro played well and was the more clinical when the Break Points came up, while she saved 4/6 Break Points played on her own serve.

Creating Break Points against the Sabalenka serve is never an easy task and that is going to be the challenge for Emma Navarro. Aryna Sabalenka has dropped serve just four times in the five wins she has produced at the US Open, which is very strong form, while three of her last four opponents have failed to convert any of their opportunities.

The expectation is that Emma Navarro will be able to have a bit more success considering her ability to get enough balls back into play to create problems. It is key to try and make Sabalenka feel she is working for every point and not having the easy service games to roll through and build confidence and momentum.

Emma Navarro has been serving very well for the majority of matches played in the tournament and maintaining that is also very important if she is going to give the World Number 2 something to think about. An aggressive player, Aryna Sabalenka has been keeping the pressure on her opponent's behind her return and she may just have the qualities to win a tight set before running away with this match.

Her experience is going to be so important, and that may see Aryna Sabalenka have the right tennis at the right moments to win the key points in a solid victory.

Emma Navarro has laid the foundation for more successes to come, but this is where her 2024 US Open may come to an end.


Jessica Pegula - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: She has reached as high as World Number 3 in the World Rankings, but the criticism of Jessica Pegula is that she had not made it past the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam.

Six defeats were suffered in that Round between 2021 and 2023 and Jessica Pegula had been set as a big underdog in her seventh attempt to make a Grand Slam Semi Final when facing Iga Swiatek on Day 10 at the US Open.

Not only did she crack through the glass ceiling, but Pegula did it in such style that she has to be feeling very, very confident right now. It has backed up the form shown in the build up to the US Open after Jessica Pegula won the Canadian Masters and reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters and the American is going to be receiving the lion's share of the support in this Semi Final.

Backing up the Quarter Final win will be a challenge and Pegula will have plenty of respect for Karolina Muchova, who is playing at a very high level herself. They actually played one another at the Cincinnati Masters and the first two sets were very competitive before Pegula was able to pull away for the victory, which will stand her in good stead.

Karolina Muchova was a comfortable winner in the Quarter Final, but she was dealing with some kind of illness and will not have a day of rest between matches to prepare for this contest. That is a potential additional factor at play for this Semi Final, although the overall form during this fortnight has been very impressive.

The lower Ranked player has been producing the stronger serving in this tournament, but Muchova has only had to beat a single top 20 Ranked opponent, while Jessica Pegula has beaten two, including the World Number 1.

It can be difficult to trust Pegula considering the amount of times she has thrown in a really poor performance at the business end of a tournament, while a victory over Iga Swiatek has raised the level of expectation around her. This pressure could be an issue, but the performances over the last month may just give Pegula the confidence to reach the US Open Final on Saturday, although it may take another three sets to get the job done.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-15, + 14.24 Units (82 Units Staked, + 17.37% Yield)

Thursday, 11 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 11th July)

It is Semi Final day on Thursday with both Ladies last four matches played on the same day.

The tournament has reached the business end and the third Grand Slam of the season is ready to be handed out.


Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: Despite having a longer career in the limelight, Donna Vekic is going to be the more inexperienced player in this surprising Wimbledon Semi Final from the bottom half of the Ladies tournament.

With a career best World Ranking of Number 19, Donna Vekic has perhaps not reached the kind of level that most tipped for her when she broke through onto the WTA Tour. She is only 28 years old now, but Donna Vekic played in the US Open Qualifiers all the way back in 2012 and her first main draw match at a Grand Slam a few months later at the Australian Open in 2013.

Injuries haven't always helped, but Vekic has perhaps struggled mentally when she has put decent runs together at the biggest events. The Croatian has made it through to her first Grand Slam Semi Final this week having previously reached just a couple of Quarter Finals, while it is quite amazing to note that Donna Vekic has never made the Quarter Final in any of the WTA 1000 events that are played throughout the year.

Her opponent in this Semi Final is a late bloomer on the Tour, but Jasmine Paolini is going to be playing with the confidence of a player that reached the French Open Final last month. Some fortune has been behind this run, most notably in her Fourth Round win over Madison Keys who picked up an injury while leading 5-2 in the third set, but Jasmine Paolini showed her class by completely dominating Emma Navarro in the Quarter Final.

This is a different kind of challenge against a player like Donna Vekic who can serve big and put some huge groundstrokes together- it will be a similar kind of match as the one that Paolini faced against Madison Keys.

Just like Keys, Donna Vekic can go through moments where the radar is out of sync leading to unforced errors and she will know that Jasmine Paolini is likely going to bring a consistent brand of tennis to the court.

You also have to factor in the amount of time Vekic has spent on the court in the last few days with each of the last three matches needing three sets and two of them being played into a third hour.

Jasmine Paolini has won two of the three previous matches between the players and both wins have been on a hard court, which should give her a solid mental edge. The most recent match between the players came last year in Canada and Paolini edged a tight first set before pulling away and there is a feeling that something similar may happen in this Semi Final.

There will be tension in the air considering how much is on the line, but Jasmine Paolini's confidence is at a super-high level right now and that is important. We saw moments in the Quarter Final win over Lulu Sun that Donna Vekic is still prone to feeling that pressure and Paolini's recent French Open run might just stand her in good stead as she looks to make it through to back to back Grand Slam Finals.


Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 games v Elena Rybakina: The two previous meetings have both ended in Barbora Krejcikova wins over Elena Rybakina, so that will help, but it is still a big ask to beat the 2022 Wimbledon Champion on Centre Court in the 2024 Semi Finals.

She snapped a losing run to get the better of Jelena Ostapenko in the Quarter Final and Barbora Krejcikova was able to serve very efficiently. This has been an aspect of her tennis that has improved after the struggles of the first couple of Rounds and it is vital for the former French Open Champion to make sure she looks after this side of her game.

In the first two Rounds, Barbora Krejcikova was winning fewer than 60% of her service points and she was very fortunate to get through those two matches.

Since then, Krejcikova has won at least 70% of her service points in each of the three matches played at Wimbledon and she has faced just eight Break Points in those three wins compared with twenty-two in the first two matches combined.

Serving well is one thing, but keeping Elena Rybakina on the back-foot is key.

We have seen the former Champion growing in matches as she has been allowed to really push through her groundstrokes on the return and Elena Rybakina has been freed up by her own big serve.

Trying to get enough of those serves back into play will be a significant challenge for Barbora Krejcikova who did have some struggles getting into the Jelena Ostapenko games in the Quarter Final. Unlike the Latvian, Elena Rybakina is not as wasteful with some of her rally balls and will not give away some of the games in a manner that Ostapenko can be prone to do.

Elena Rybakina is really looking after her serve in this tournament and that is why she is a clear favourite to win the Wimbledon title for a second time in three years. Even in the two losses to this opponent, Elena Rybakina has not had too many issues when it comes to the serve and that is likely going to be key for her again.

There is also the additional factor of Barbora Krejcikova playing in the Ladies Doubles this week as well as the Singles, and that has meant playing twice on Wednesday, just twenty-four hours before this big Semi Final.

We do know that Barbora Krejcikova is used to playing both Singles and Doubles in a Grand Slam tournament so it should not be a major problem, but this is already a tough match for her. It would be a surprise if Krejcikova is able to go all the way and earn the upset, but she should be competitive enough and the Czech player is perhaps being a little underrated in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 18-19, - 6.62 Units (74 Units Staked, - 8.95% Yield)

Tuesday, 4 June 2024

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th June)

It looked like a serious injury, but Novak Djokovic ended his Fourth Round match in such strong fashion that the feeling was that a day of rest would be enough for him to take to the court.

Unfortunately the MRI scan on Tuesday showed more knee damage than hoped, and Djokovic has to withdraw from the tournament.

The longer-term concern is that the 24 time Grand Slam Champion will be unable to compete at Wimbledon and then potentially the Olympic Games and US Open. More on that will likely come out in the days and weeks ahead, but the short turnaround into the third Grand Slam of the season makes it unlikely that Novak Djokovic can add to the seven titles he has won in SW19.

A new World Number 1 will be made official on Monday when Jannik Sinner moves into that slot, and deservedly so, but before that a new French Open Champion will be crowned on Sunday. Every player left in the draw will feel confident about winning the title and you can make a case for all five left in the draw, although Casper Ruud might benefit from the Novak Djokovic walkover in their Quarter Final.


Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The World Ranking points might suggest the top three are clear of the rest on the WTA Tour, but there is little doubt that the 2022 Wimbledon Champion Elena Rybakina is right up alongside Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka.

An Australian Open Runner Up and a Wimbledon Quarter Final were the highlights of her 2023 Grand Slam season, but a very disappointing Second Round defeat in Melbourne earlier this year has kept Rybakina from really closing on the top three players in terms of Ranking points.

Illness meant she could not defend the title she won in Rome last year, meaning more significant points came off the record, but Elena Rybakina has powered through the draw in Paris. She has matched her Quarter Final appearance in 2021, but Rybakina has to be feeling pretty confident about her all around tennis to believe she can set a new career mark for this tournament.

Overlooking Jasmine Paolini would be a mistake and a win for the Italian would mean she would enter the top ten in the World Rankings for the first time. While the path through to the Quarter Final has been relatively serene for Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini has come through a couple of three setters, although the sets won were very one-sided in her favour.

Earlier this year she reached the second week at a Grand Slam for the first time and Paolini has made it through to her first Quarter Final at this level in Paris on her favoured clay courts.

The build up to the French Open was perhaps a little disappointing as far as Jasmine Paolini is concerned, but her performances here will give her confidence. She also pushed Elena Rybakina in a three set loss in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court, but it was the higher Seed who created double the Break Point chances and that is likely to be the case here.

Defence is key for Paolini as she will look to frustrate Elena Rybakina and ask her to play one more shot wherever she can, but the serve looks to be a huge weapon as far as the World Number 4 goes.

Ruling out Jasmine Paolini completely would be a mistake and she can make this competitive, but Elena Rybakina has powered her way through big moments throughout this week. She looks to be playing with a real confidence and the bigger hitting could shine through even when the weather is perhaps taking a slight dip again.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: There is little doubting the sense of expectation around Mirra Andreeva and her potential as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion in the making.

She has only just turned 17 years old at the end of April and continues to show maturity beyond her years in handling the pressures that are around her.

In the Fourth Round, Mirra Andreeva faced a home player who had the crowd firmly behind her, but it did not rattle the youngster at all and she came through with a strong win. The victory marked her first Grand Slam Quarter Final appearance and plenty more are expected from a player who will be allowed to play more tournamnts and really grow onto the Tour.

Regardless of the result on Wednesday, Mirra Andreeva will be reaching a new career high World Ranking as she enters the top 30 for the first time. An upset would really see her making moves towards the top 20 and that will be motivation for Andreeva, although she will also understand there is a huge challenge in front o her.

Aryna Sabalenka is the current World Number 2 and she will not be able to improve on that position even if she was to win the title in Paris next Saturday. However, it would mean Sabalenka holds the first two Grand Slams of the 2024 season and not many would consider anyone else to be the top player in the world.

This is the seventh Grand Slam in a row that Aryna Sabalenka has made it through to the Quarter Final since her Third Round loss in Paris in 2022, and she made it into the Semi Final on each of the last six occasions. Two Slams have been won in that time, and she has been a beaten Finalist, while Sabalenka has become a very consistent force on the Tour.

She reached the Final in both Madrid and Rome, although was beaten both times by Iga Swiatek, and the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka will overpower Mirra Andreeva.

That has been the case in their two previous meetings, both in Madrid, in 2023 and this year. In both matches Mirra Andreeva has picked up just four games and the youngster has found very little joy at winning points against the big Sabalenka serve.

In Paris the conditions may suit Mirra Andreeva a bit more than Madrid, especially with the weather not as hot as it could be. However, it will still take a big shift in the match up for this to be much more competitive and right now Aryna Sabalenka might just be too powerful for a younger player still growing into her body.

Aryna Sabalenka has simply not been troubled in Paris and seems to be enjoying her time here and that makes her dangerous- she can come through this one with another reminder to Mirra Andreeva that there is still considerable work to be done before she really begins to mix it with the elite of the WTA Tour.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: Get things right, playing back to back five setters in a Grand Slam is extremely challenging for any player and especially when you think there are still three more matches to win if a title is to be secured.

That is the challenge for Alexander Zverev who is playing under the cloud of a legal case being heard in Germany regarding domestic abuse allegations.

While the ATP Tour and the French Open are trying to ignore those off the court issues, Alexander Zverev himself has also managed to bring in enough PR support to ensure that he is not being heckled by the crowd.

It has been a tough tournament from the outset with Zverev having to beat Rafael Nadal in the Spaniard's potentially last French Open appearance. That was in the First Round, while the last two wins over Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune have both needed some late drama for the World Number 4 to progress.

He has long had a liking for the clay courts and this Quarter Final may feel a step down in level of opponent compared with the Fourth Round when facing Holger Rune.

Alex De Minaur may have something to say about that after an impressive win over Daniil Medvedev, but the run to the Quarter Final has been surprising to say the least. He had never been beyond the Second Round at Roland Garros before, while the Australian has proven to be much happier on the faster surfaces rather than the red dirt.

An inconsistent build up to the second Grand Slam of the season would have underlined the feeling that Alex De Minaur would have been a vulnerable higher Seed, but all credit has to be given to him. He has dropped the first set in each of his last two wins, but this will feel a much tougher match up for him as long as Alexander Zverev is able to recover from a late night finish.

The German does have a solid match up record against Alex De Minaur and their one sole clay court match in Rome in 2022 ended up in a relatively comfortable win for Alexander Zverev. The serve is really working well for the higher Seed in this Quarter Final and that is likely going to be key for Zverev in his bid to reach another Semi Final in Paris.

Nothing ever comes easily against a tenacious competitor like De Minaur, but the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas have had strong wins over the Aussie on this surface over the last couple of months. Alexander Zverev is certainly playing up to that kind of level and overcoming any lingering fatigue can be helped with a strong Quarter Final win.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 18-5, + 18.02 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39.17% Yield)