Indian Wells Tennis Day 12 Picks 2026 (Sunday 15th March)

It did prove to be a difficult tournament to turn around after the two ATP Semi Finals were split 1-1, but that does not mean we move past the last day of the Indian Wells Masters.

The two Finals are both scheduled to be played on the day and both look like they could be very enjoyable for the neutrals tuning in.

A repeat of the Women's Australian Open Final and a Men's Final featuring two of the very best hard court players in the world can only be a positive and my thoughts can be read below.

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Elena Rybakina: A repeat of the Australian Open Final will be played in the Indian Wells Final and both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have put together strong runs here.

Out of the two players, Aryna Sabalenka has been producing the higher level of tennis, but she has also struggled to get the better of this opponent.

In the last nine hard court matches between the pair, it is Elena Rybakina who has won seven times including in Melbourne in January. They met three times on the hard courts in 2025 and Rybakina won two of those, while the sole meeting in Indian Wells was also won in the Final by the World Number 3 in 2023.

All of that will give her a lot of confidence, but Aryna Sabalenka will feel she was very unfortunate to lose the Australian Open Final and the performances so far in the Indian Wells conditions will give her confidence in turning that form around. She has found it very difficult to read the Rybakina serve, but it was the World Number 1 who had more Break Points in the defeat in Melbourne and that is another reason Sabalenka can believe she has the game to get the better of this rival.

Aryna Sabalenka has been the much stronger server so far this week and she can certainly contain much of the threat from the World Number 3, although there is always that mental pressure to deal with.

That comes from the fact she has lost so many recent matches against Elena Rybakina, but the latter has not been nearly as impressive as the top Seed. That is not to say that Elena Rybakina has played poorly, but the wins have been in more competitive matches, even if that can sometimes be a help rather than a hindrance.

Both players should produce some good tennis in this Final, but the narrow edge is rightly with Aryna Sabalenka and she may just pick up a big title that gives her momentum to carry into the clay court season after a stop in Miami later this month.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The win over Carlos Alcaraz will have given Daniil Medvedev a huge amount of confidence and has also maintained what has been a really strong run of form being produced by the World Number 11.

He now takes aim at winning back to back titles and arguably the biggest one anyone can win outside of the Grand Slams when competing for the Indian Wells trophy.

Daniil Medvedev served really well in the Semi Final win and he is going to have to do the same if he is going to put together a rare tournament in which a player beats the top two players in the world in back to back matches.

Beating Carlos Alcaraz means Daniil Medvedev is more than capable of winning this Final, but there will be a lot of respect for the way Jannik Sinner is playing and the World Number 2 produced a dominant win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final.

No one is going to be surprised to read that Jannik Sinner has been serving well, but it is the aggressive performance on the return that has proved to be the key to the Italian reaching his first Final of the 2026 season. This week Sinner has broken in almost 40% of return games played and dealing with the very solid Alexander Zverev serve will mean he is not intimidated by what Daniil Medvedev can produce.

Jannik Sinner began his career by losing the first six matches against Daniil Medvedev, but he has now won eight of the last nine matches, including the last three in a row.

Eight wins in a row have been produced on the hard courts and Jannik Sinner would have covered what looks like a big line in the last four hard court matches played in a best of three set format.

During this eight match winning run on the hard courts, Jannik Sinner has held 90% of his service games compared with Daniil Medvedev's 75% mark and that is a significant difference.

Respect has to be given to Daniil Medvedev for the current level being produced, but it is still a little short of the standard being set by Jannik Sinner and the latter can win the Indian Wells title with a solid looking success on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 12-14, - 3.98 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.31% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Saturday 14th March)

The WTA Semi Finals were played on Friday, but they both looked pretty tough to read.

Instead the focus is on the Saturday ATP Semi Final matches and the top two players in the World Rankings look like they will be very difficult to beat.

Things happen in sport, but this is the direction that has been taken by the Tennis Picks for Day 11 of the tournament and the reasoning can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Another solid win was produced in the Quarter Final and that has continued a fine winning sequence for Daniil Medvedev, which has included a title win in Dubai.

He has suggested the courts are playing faster than usual, which has helped in his ability to perform at Indian Wells, but Medvedev will also be well aware that he still needs to find another level if he is going to beat one of the top two players in the world.

Right now it is Carlos Alcaraz who is playing as the World Number 1 should and his form this week in Indian Wells has been very strong.

Of course the Spaniard plays at this level so often that it perhaps does not make anyone sit up and take notice as they would usually, but that also means Carlos Alcaraz has been able to pick up a couple of titles already this season and he still looks the player to beat.

These two players did split the first four meetings on the Tour, but in recent times Alcaraz has been pretty comfortable in the match up and the challenge for Daniil Medvedev is to turn that momentum around.

This match is also being played in a tournament where Carlos Alcaraz has crushed Daniil Medvedev twice before in 2023 and 2024, both times in the Final rather than the Semi Final. While some believe the conditions are slightly different this year, Carlos Alcaraz will have that mental edge in the contest, as well as the fact he has won four of the five hard court matches between these two Grand Slam Champions.

Daniil Medvedev has to make the best use out of his serve if he is going to upset the odds, but will also need to serve very well to make this competitive. He has held 97% of service games played in Indian Wells this year, but you also have to factor in the opponents faced and being that comfortable against someone who returns as effectively as Carlos Alcaraz is a big ask.

The World Number 1 has also been serving really well and in the previous hard court matches between these players, Carlos Alcaraz has held 89% of service games played compared with 76% for Daniil Medvedev.

Those are numbers that cannot be ignored and the Indian Wells conditions have favoured Carlos Alcaraz who has now won the title twice and reached the Semi Final in each of the last five years.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: In the years ahead, you have to believe the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will join an elite list of players that have reached the Semi Final of every Masters event played.

The Big Four of the last era have been joined by Alexander Zverev and the World Number 4 is now looking to add a Major title to his list of accomplishments. There are going to be opportunities for Alexander Zverev, but the pressure is on the German to show he can beat the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz in big events.

On Saturday he has a chance to prove himself when he faces the World Number 2 in the Semi Final in Indian Wells, which has long been considered the unofficial 'fifth Slam'.

The best of three set format should provide another chance with Alexander Zverev finding it tougher to come through those big Grand Slam matches, and it is imperative that he serves well.

Outside of one troubling match, Jannik Sinner has looked supremely confident here at Indian Wells and he crushed Learner Tien in the Quarter Final.

Players of this stature are judged on how many titles they win and so it is a huge disappointment for fans of the World Number 2 that he has yet to make a Final, never mind actually winning a title.

Over the coming weeks he should get a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz in the World Rankings, but Jannik Sinner knows that he is in an era where big titles mean so much more than World Ranking and he would be very keen to win this one in Indian Wells to remind people that there are a 'Big Two' and not just his Spanish rival coasting to title after title.

Jannik Sinner is playing well enough to win this Semi Final and he has beaten Alexander Zverev five times in a row.

Some of those matches have been really competitive where Zverev has used his serve very effectively, but the last couple of hard court defeats at the end of the 2025 season were worryingly one-sided.

In the last four hard court matches between these top four players, Alexander Zverev has only broken serve once and that is a problem for him against a quality returner like Jannik Sinner.

During the run to the Indian Wells Semi Final, Jannik Sinner has been much stronger returning than Alexander Zverev and that may show up here to set up what could be the Final that all of the fans want to see.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 11-13, - 3.98 Units (24 Units Staked, - 16.58% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Thursday 12th March)

The tournament has been a difficult one for the Tennis Picks, but there may be some late momentum that can be carried through to the end of the weekend.

Both selections on Wednesday returned as winners and it may have been better if Katerina Siniakova had been able to complete her Fourth Round match, although she did look spent a couple of days earlier and perhaps did well to manage nine games before withdrawing.

The schedule for the rest of the tournament means all of the Quarter Final matches are set to be played on Thursday.

That will be followed by the WTA Semi Finals on Friday, the ATP Semi Finals on Saturday and both Singles Finals concluding the tournament on Sunday.

It is not the usual ending to these joint Masters events, but the organisers clearly feel that works best and that means an extremely busy Thursday with some of those Quarter Final matches only put together in the Evening Session on Wednesday in the Californian desert.

Four Picks have been made and those can be seen below, while the updated totals for the Indian Wells tournament have also been added.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Learner Tien: There will be plenty of support for young American Learner Tien in this Indian Wells Quarter Final and an upset in this Round will almost certainly mean cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time.

Regardless of the result, Learner Tien is set for a new career high World Ranking mark on Monday morning after coming through some very tight matches in each of the previous three Rounds. He has had to spend a considerable amount of court to come through in back to back three setters, but all of this will give the young player a lot of confidence to take into the rest of the season.

Learner Tien has already beaten two players Ranked inside the top 20 so this is not a match that should keep him up at night, although the American will be aware of the size of the task in front of him

Joao Fonseca and a heckler were not enough to put Jannik Sinner off in his own Fourth Round win and the World Number 2 will be very happy with his performance on the court.

He met a younger opponent playing close to his best, but Jannik Sinner was able to keep himself focused and ended up winning the match turning points.

In this Quarter Final, Sinner will know he is going to have more control of the rallies than he was awarded by Joao Fonseca and that always makes players feel more comfortable about what they can produce on the court. Big hitting was taking the racquet out of Sinner's hands in the last Round, but that is not expected to be the case in the Quarter Final, much like when the players met on the hard courts of Beijing in October in a Final that was dominated by the higher Ranked player.

You will expect Learner Tien to have used that match to make adjustments as to how he would prepare and challenge the best players on the court, but he will need to have replenished his energy levels.

The lefty serve can be a little awkward for opponent's to read and Learner Tien is going to have to serve well to try and put some scoreboard pressure on Jannik Sinner.

If he can do that, he can win a few more games than he managed in Beijing, but you still have to give the Italian a big edge in the contest.

Jannik Sinner has been quite considerably the stronger returner of the two players and he can have a bit more time to dictate things in the rallies to turn a few more points in his favour than he did in the Fourth Round.

Covering this number will not be easy, but Sinner looks the right play here and he may just have too much on both sides of the net for the improving Learner Tien.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Victoria Mboko: There are a couple of young players in the WTA Tour who look really close to having a serious breakthrough and not many would back against Victoria Mboko being the first of those to do that at Grand Slam level.

Her growth over the last twelve months has be monumental and the Canadian is stringing wins together.

She has won a big WTA 1000 event in Montreal, but this year Victoria Mboko has been able to back that up by reaching the Final in Doha and she is on another strong run in Indian Wells. She also reached the Fourth Round in the Australian Open and it has taken some of the biggest names on the Tour to stop her runs.

One of those was Aryna Sabalenka who beat Victoria Mboko in straight sets in Melbourne, although it was anything but a one-sided contest, especially after the teenager got to grips with what she was facing in the second set. A Tie-Breaker was needed by Sabalenka to get through on her way to another Final at that tournament, but she was the stronger player and would like to frank that victory.

Aryna Sabalenka is playing in her first tournament since losing the Australian Open Final and she has not been troubled here, although may be the first to admit that this looks like it could be the toughest test to date.

The serve continues to be an advantage for the World Number 1 and she is going to need to serve well to try and contain the obvious threat that Victoria Mboko brings onto the court.

The World Number 10 has been playing well and the dominant win over Amanda Anisimova will have gotten many sitting up and taking notice. She holds a win over Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina this year and so there is nothing in this match that will intimidate Mboko, but she will look to try and get on the front foot and dictate behind her own serve to see if she can rattle the best player on the Tour.

When they met in Melbourne, Aryna Sabalenka was the stronger return player and that is likely going to be the case again, which makes it right to believe she can eventually have a bit too much for the youngster standing across the net.

Covering is going to be challenging considering what we have seen from Victoria Mboko on the hard courts over the last nine months, but Aryna Sabalenka may just be playing at a high enough level to edge past this line set. It may be a Quarter Final with some swings in momentum, but eventually the Belarusian may have done enough to progress with a stylish looking win on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 9-11, - 3.76 Units (20 Units Staked, - 18.80% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 11th March)

The last couple of years have proven to be a little difficult in terms of reading the Indian Wells Masters and the 2026 tournament looks to be no different.

There has been some meat left on the table with a couple of selections coming up short of the criteria and producing the winners that have been lacking so far this week.

On Wednesday, the Fourth Round is concluded at this Masters event and there are some very good looking matches heading out onto the courts, but it would be greatly appreciated if at least two of the three selections enter the Winners' Enclosure and start pulling things back as we approach the business end of the first of two big events to be played in March.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The Fourth Round defeat at the Australian Open not only hurt because it came relatively early in the draw, but the manner in which Daniil Medvedev was beaten would have stung.

There may have been something of a hangover after that tournament with early defeats in Rotterdam and Doha on the board, but Daniil Medvedev cruised through the draw at the ATP 500 event in Dubai and won the title.

The World Number 11 concluded the title win just hours after the Middle East erupted into a war that meant airspace was closed and that also meant Daniil Medvedev arrived in Indian Wells a little later than planned. However, that has not impacted the confidence that he would have picked up from that run in Dubai and Daniil Medvedev has impressed through the first two wins at the opening ATP 1000 event of the season.

Another strong run will help Daniil Medvedev move back into the top ten of the World Rankings and it will also offer him a boost as he looks to find a way to bridge the gap between himself and the top two players in the world.

Once again Daniil Medvedev is producing some strong numbers on the hard courts and he is backing up his serve by keeping opponents under pressure on the return.

The returning side of his tennis will be tested by Alex Michelsen who had been struggling for consistency since reaching the Semi Final in Brisbane and before he arrived in Indian Wells. The American had not won consecutive matches since Brisbane, but Michelsen is back on track with three wins at this tournament and that will give him some belief.

Adding to the confidence is the fact he was able to beat Taylor Fritz in the Third Round and Alex Michelsen is already moving his World Ranking back in the right direction with the run he is putting together here.

Reaching the Fourth Round is already the best run he has produced at Indian Wells and he is really making the best use out of the serve in the conditions.

Alex Michelsen is going to be well aware that he needs to continue serving well if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time having been beaten in all three previous matches.

Two have been on the hard courts, including here in Indian Wells last year in a match that lasted just two games and the other in the Brisbane Semi Final in January and Alex Michelsen has really struggled to impose his serve on this opponent.

Putting the very short match here at Indian Wells aside, it should be noted that Alex Michelsen only won 53% of points behind serve when facing Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane and he was broken four times in that match. He did create chances against the Medvedev serve, but the biggest points were won by the higher Ranked player and that could be the outcome in this Fourth Round match too.

Daniil Medvedev will recognise that his opponent is playing with some confidence, but the World Number 11 has been in really good nick for a couple of weeks now and he may have the superior returning numbers to edge to a cover of this handicap mark set.

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: The emotion came pouring out of Katerina Siniakova after her Third Round win over defending Champion Mirra Andreeva- she admitted in the post match interview that she had very little left in the tank as the match was concluded and Tuesday is an important recovery day.

Three wins have been produced in Indian Wells, but the World Number 44 has battled for everything earned.

These days the majority of the successes that Katerina Siniakova has is on a Doubles court, but she has long been an effective and awkward Singles player to beat and most of the top players know that. However, prior to the tournament in Indian Wells, Siniakova had not won consecutive Singles matches within an event and she had put together a 2-5 record on the hard courts.

All three wins have been in three sets this week and Katerina Siniakova eight hours on the court.

It is going to add up and take a toll and this is a tough match up for the lower Ranked player against Elina Svitolina who tends to give little away.

All four previous matches between the players have been won by the Ukrainian, including two years ago right here in Indian Wells.

Elina Svitolina is not someone who will take anything for granted when noting that all of those four previous head to head matches have needed to go the distance before the current World Number 9 has found a way through. The numbers have been skewed in favour of Svitolina in those head to head matches, but she will know that she needs to be focused and has to give Katerina Siniakova little encouragement.

The wins have been piling up in 2026, but Elina Svitolina plays with fine margins and that has meant she has sometimes been pushed a bit more than she would have expected within matches. That happened in the Second Round at this latest WTA 1000 event, but Svitolina was comfortable in the Third Round and should have far too much energy for her opponent, which will ultimately show up on the scoreboard.

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The Covid pandemic meant the Indian Wells tournament was moved out of its usual spot in the calendar, but it has been restored to the month of March in recent times.

In four editions of the tournament back in its normal place, Iga Swiatek has manaed to win the title twice and she has been a Semi Finalist in the other two appearances here.

Over the last twelve months, Iga Swiatek has remained a solid force on the hard courts, but Quarter Final runs at the Australian Open and in Doha are underwhelming returns for the World Number 2.

The Pole has been in good nick through the first couple of matches in Indian Wells, but this is a big step up in level when taking on Karolina Muchova, who has won all eight matches played since her Fourth Round loss at the Australian Open. That run has secured one title and Karolina Muchova could soon move back inside the top ten of the World Rankings if she can maintain current form.

She is an all-court player and Muchova has long been seen as someone who can upset the odds and win a Major, but her head to head with Iga Swiatek has been a problem.

In 2026, Karolina Muchova's serve on the hard courts continues to be a big weapon, but Iga Swiatek has matched those numbers and it is the latter who has been a little more effective when it comes to the return of serve.

That has really shown up when it comes to the head to head and it is Iga Swiatek who has won all three previous hard court matches- while the World Number 2 has been broken five times across those matches, Swiatek has broken the Karolina Muchova serve fourteen times and has a real advantage when it comes to the returning numbers produced.

Just twelve months ago they met here at Indian Wells at the same stage of the tournament and Karolina Muchova was able to win just two games as she was brushed aside.

It is very hard to believe she struggles as much as that considering how well she has been playing, but Karolina Muchova may end up being edged out in the opening two sets and that should be enough for Iga Swiatek to get the better of this handicap line.

This is the toughest test that Iga Swiatek will have faced in the tournament, but she is playing well enough to maintain her current advantages over Karolina Muchova and can end the winning run being produced by the latter.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 7-11, - 5.20 Units (18 Units Staked, - 28.89% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 10th March)

It has been an inconsistent opening week as the Tennis Picks have taken one step forwards and then two steps back, but that is just the nature of the Tour at times.

There have been moments when it has looked like there has been some momentum behind the selections, but Madison Keys failed to build on a 6-2 first set in losing her match on Monday evening and that meant another 2-2 day.

Tuesday looks a much more difficult day with the matches being competitively priced, but there are two more Picks from the day, which can be read below.

Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: Don't expect this to be a match filled with rallies considering the serving powers of both Arthur Fils and Felix Auger Aliassime.

That proved to be the difference in favour of Felix Auger Aliassime when he beat the Frenchman in Montpellier last month, although that was also a match played on an indoor hard court. Playing in outdoor conditions is always going to be a little different and especially in a tournament like the one held in Indian Wells where it can be that much more challenging, although Auger Aliassime is playing with enough confidence to back up that previous win over this opponent.

In that Quarter Final match last month, Felix Auger Aliassime dominated behind serve and it ended up putting pressure on Arthur Fils to respond.

Felix Auger Aliassime won 90% of service points played compared with Arthur Fils at 58% and the higher Ranked player will be confident in having the edge again.

Things will feel a little different as that event in Montpellier was the first Arthur Fils was competing in this season, but he has since reached the Final of an ATP 500 event held in Doha and the World Number 32 has impressed in his two wins in Indian Wells.

Confidence can be such a big factor and Arthur Fils is playing with a lot of that right now- his serve is still an important weapon and Fils is also showing plenty of athleticism around the court on his return, although that aspect of his tennis going to be severely tested by Felix Auger Aliassime.

The first month of the season was massively disappointing for Felix Auger Aliassime and included a First Round loss in Melbourne, but he has been flying since then.

Winning the title in Montpellier was followed by a run to the Final in Rotterdam and Semi Final in Dubai and the Canadian has been serving very well.

However, that has always been a strength of the Auger Aliassime game and it is the 18% Break percentage that actually stands out the most- he has not always been the best return player on the hard courts, but Felix Auger Aliassime is applying pressure on that side of the net and it may be a key reason that he can edge past Arthur Fils and most likely in straight sets.

He has needed to go three sets in both wins in Indian Wells, but there has been little wrong with the serve and Felix Auger Aliassime has continued to find the Breaks that he has needed and he can do something similar in this Fourth Round match up.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Joao Fonseca: There are some huge expectations on the shoulders of 19 year old Brazilian Joao Fonseca, but that has perhaps contributed to the player struggling to have the kind of impact people may have wanted to see from him.

Third Round runs at the French Open and Wimbledon helped push him close to the top 20 of the World Rankings at the end of the 2025 season, but Joao Fonseca arrived at Indian Wells as the World Number 35.

The numbers being produced over the last twelve months overall have been very solid and shows the growing presence around this player, but there has been little hard court action taken in this season.

With that said, Joao Fonseca has done very well to win three matches here and move through to this big Fourth Round match.

Joao Fonseca showed tremendous character to do just enough to edge past Karen Khachanov in the Second Round, but was so much more impressive in crushing Tommy Paul for the loss of five games last time out. In that win, Fonseca backed up his serve by keeping the home player under pressure on the return, but everyone around the teenager will be reminding him of the step up in level he will be facing in the Fourth Round.

That is because the Brazilian will be playing the World Number 2 and one of the top hard court players in the world in Jannik Sinner.

The latter has only played a couple of tournaments so far this season and will have been disappointed to have lost in the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final in Doha. That doesn't mean the Jannik Sinner numbers have dipped with him continuing to produce at an exceptionally high level on the hard courts, but he will be looking to build up some momentum.

Over the next couple of months, Sinner has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points and will be expecting to push up a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz, but he will also want to win some titles and look to get something positive going ahead of the clay court season.

Jannik Sinner has looked a man on a mission with his two very convincing wins to open his time at Indian Wells and he did reach the Semi Final in his last appearance at this tournament two years ago.

He will certainly feel he serves well enough to contain much of the threat that will be posed by the youngster on the other side of the net, and Jannik Sinner exerts plenty of pressure on the return.

It means Joao Fonseca will have to serve really well to keep this one competitive and there are still levels for the Brazilian to develop to really get into a position to compete with the top two players on the Tour.

There is little doubt that Fonseca can have successes for a while, but maintaining the level needed to beat Jannik Sinner is going to be very difficult to achieve. One of the sets will be competitive, but it also would not be a big surprise if there is a period when the World Number 2 is able to string the games together and that can push Jannik Sinner into a position to cover the wide line set for the match.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 3.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 6 Picks 2026 (Monday 9th March)

The opening five days at the Indian Wells tournament have been disappointing for the Tennis Picks, but it is still early and the opportunity remains to turn things around and get this event back on track.

Things could have been worse, but they certainly could be a lot better and there are a few more selections from Day 6 with the Third Round set to be completed.

A bit of fortune at key times would be nice, but this is just one of those moments on a long Tour when things are not quite going to plan and that is just something we have to navigate, while also remembering it has been a positive start to the 2026 season to back up the winning 2025 campaign.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Aleksandar Kovacevic: The crowd is likely going to give Aleksandar Kovacevic some decent support at Indian Wells, but Novak Djokovic is a legend and there will be plenty backing him to make the Fourth Round.

This is the first tournament taken in by Novak Djokovic since coming up short at the Australian Open Final and the win in the Second Round means he is already putting some World Ranking Points in the bank.

These days Novak Djokovic is unconcerned about his Ranking with the focus being on winning another Major, but staying in the top four would mean avoiding having to face the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz before the Semi Final at any Grand Slam coming up. He knows how tough it will be to beat both players, but facing them in the Semi Final and Final is better than having to use up too much energy early in a Slam and Novak Djokovic will be confident in his chances at the remaining three Majors.

Motivation for other tournaments is harder to find, but Novak Djokovic should have enough quality to get past the World Number 72 who has a 5-9 record on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.

When he finds a rhythm, the serve can be a big weapon for Kovacevic, but he has struggled on the return of serve and that has kept him under pressure.

Novak Djokovic can exert that pressure on this opponent and he remains a solid return player on the surface, even if the former World Number 1 is not at the level he once was.

He did drop a set in the Second Round, but this may end up being a more routine win for the Serb as he progresses into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.

Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Sonay Kartal: She has had a mixed time at Indian Wells, but Madison Keys reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and looked in decent form on her return to the Tour.

This is the first tournament that Madison Keys has played since the defence of her Australian Open crown ended in the Fourth Round in Melbourne.

There is room for improvement on the Second Round win over Diane Parry, but Madison Keys showed enough on the return of serve to be feeling pretty good about her latest run in Indian Wells. She did need to save eight Break Points to avoid being dragged into a real battle, but Keys did what was needed and is rightly favoured in this Third Round match on Monday.

Sonay Kartal has once again reached the Third Round in Indian Wells, but she would be dropping in the World Ranking if she is not able to at least match the performance of 2025 when she made it through to the Fourth Round.

Saving Match Points to beat Emma Navarro will have given the British player a lot of confidence and Sonay Kartal has reached a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts this season. The Middle East swung began well, but Kartal has just had issues with her consistency and she had lost four in a row against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface before beating Navarro in the Second Round.

Over the last twelve months, Madison Keys has won twelve of fourteen hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20.

She has also beaten Sonay Kartal on the grass courts of Wimbledon, although that was in a match played in 2023 and the World Number 54 is a much more experienced player now.

That should mean Kartal is able to have some successes, but she has struggled with the return of serve against the higher Ranked players faced this year and Madison Keys may do just enough to clear this handicap line.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Belinda Bencic @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-7, - 2.94 Units (12 Units Staked, - 24.50% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 5 Picks 2026 (Sunday 8th March)

The time change in the United States means we are going to be seeing the Indian Wells tournament beginning an hour earlier in the United Kingdom than the opening four days at the event.

Fans of US Sport have to enjoy this brief period when the Eastern Time Zone is only four hours behind London time, especially as the UK clocks will not change for a couple of weeks.

It won't make picking winners any easier as the tournament moves into the Third Round, but there are four selections from the schedule with stronger matches now beginning to take place- this remains a big tournament with many considering that 'fifth Major', and having deep runs here is important for those looking to build their Ranking Points and improve potential Seeding spots for the clay court and grass court seasons soon coming up.

The Tennis Picks have been very mixed in the early part of the tournament, but there is plenty of time to get things back on track over the coming days.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: Only one tournament has been played by Alexander Zverev since he was beaten in the Australian Open Semi Final and he barely made an impact in Acapulco.

You have to believe that Zverev is now at an age and a stage of his career where the Majors take on a lot more focus compared with the rest of the tournaments on the Tour, but he will still want to build some momentum ahead of the run into the clay court season. Two North American hard court events give him an opportunity, but Alexander Zverev knows that this is a potentially awkward Second Round match.

A win over Matteo Berrettini and in the fashion it was produced will certainly help Alexander Zverev settle into this tournament, but there will be ample respect for the opponent.

The World Number 30 reached the Semi Final in Acapulco last week, and Brandon Nakashima has come through a Second Round match without suffering too much.

He also reached the Final in a warm up tournament ahead of the Australian Open, although Nakashima will be very disappointed with his effort in Melbourne.

Brandon Nakashima has held 90% of his service games played on the hard courts this season, but that number has dipped to 80% when facing top 20 Ranked opponents. There has also been a vulnerability about his return performances, and that has really be exploited by the top players, which will give Alexander Zverev confidence.

Adding to that is the fact that Zverev has won all five previous matches against Brandon Nakashima and there has been a big advantage in favour of the German when it comes to the serving numbers.

Three of those wins have been on hard courts where Brandon Nakashima has held 71% of service games played compared with Alexander Zverev's 97% mark.

Even on a slower hard court, Alexander Zverev has the edge and he may do just enough to find the Breaks of serve needed to push clear of this handicap spread.

There have been a couple of disappointing losses on the Alexander Zverev ledger this year, but his numbers continue to be very strong on the hard courts.

Alexander Zverev has not always enjoyed his time in 'Tennis Paradise', but he should be unperturbed by the match up and that should help the World Number 4 settle for a solid win on the scoreboard.

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Both of these players are very comfortable on the hard courts and that makes this a fascinating Third Round match.

There are similarities with the level of performance that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Jakub Mensik have produced on the hard courts, although the latter has surprisingly been the more effective return player.

This should be a key factor on the courts at Indian Wells and Jakub Mensik has been playing with real confidence even as he has taken on some of the stronger players on the Tour.

Unlike the 20 year old, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had his problems when he has faced top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. His service numbers have not been impacted too much in those matches, but the Spaniard has really had his problems when it comes to the return of serve and that could be a difference between the players in this Third Round contest.

You cannot overlook the match up here though- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won the last four between the players and three of those have been on the hard courts. The Spaniard dominated when the players met at the Canadian Masters in August in the lead up to the US Open, while he came from 2-0 down to beat Mensik at the Australian Open last year, and those have to be considered ahead of this Third Round match.

That does raise a couple of doubts, but the younger player still has room to grow and he may just have enough out of his return game to edge past Davidovich Fokina.

In the hard court matches, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had a slight edge in terms of points won behind serve, but six months on from the last meeting, Jakub Mensik may just turn things around to a level where he can edge to the win.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 4-5, - 1.85 Units (9 Units Staked, - 20.56% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 4 Picks 2026 (Saturday 7th March)

Some of the top names on the Tennis Tour joined the Indian Wells party on Friday and the remainder of the draw will now enter the fray on Saturday as the Second Round is completed.

There have been some mixed results with the last two days ending with 1-1 records, but there is a long week to go in the first of two Masters events to be played in North America this month.

Saturday looks to be a busier day for the Tennis Picks with four selections made, all from the ATP tournament, and this is when the tournament really begins to motor.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Twelve months ago, Carlos Alcaraz crushed Grigor Dimitrov for the loss of just two games right here in Indian Wells, but that was a Fourth Round match and the World Number 1 had to snap a two match losing run to this opponent.

In 2026, Carlos Alcaraz is playing at a much higher level than Grigor Dimitrov on his return from an injury.

Even with that in mind, it is not expected to be as comfortable a win for Carlos Alcaraz as it was when these two met in 2025, although the Spaniard is right to be considered a significant favourite.

This is the first competitive match that Carlos Alcaraz will have played in Indian Wells this year, but he has been on the grounds for some time and that will help. Confidence is not going to be any issue considering Alcaraz has won all twelve matches played in 2026 and has picked up titles in Melbourne and Doha.

Grigor Dimitrov battled for almost two and a half hours to win his First Round match, but he was far from convincing and the level increases significantly in the Second Round.

The Bulgarian has yet to find his best form since his return from injury and he will be under pressure to serve well enough to contain the threat that Carlos Alcaraz brings onto the court.

There was nothing wrong with the Grigor Dimitrov performance in the First Round, and the signs of improving the return game will certainly give him belief.

However, this is a tough test for any player on the Tour and especially for one that. is perhaps not feeling quite at his very best.

Over the last twelve months, Carlos Alcaraz has been keeping opponents under constant pressure with his returning and that may see him break down the Dimitrov game on Saturday.

Luciano Darderi - 2.5 games v Rinky Hijikata: It is no surprise that Luciano Darderi took in the South American Golden Swing on the clay courts rather than the hard court events.

He had a successful time with a title secured and the World Number 21 will be looking to make a better transition onto the hard courts compared with last year. An early loss at Indian Wells means Luciano Darderi has plenty of Ranking Points to pick up with a couple of wins, even if he has struggled to put the consistency together on the hard courts.

2026 might be looking brighter having finished up at the Australian Open with a 4-2 record, but there is still room for improvement in his game on this surface.

Despite that, the Italian is rightly favoured to beat Rinky Hijikata who has slipped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

The Australian has always been pretty happy on the hard courts and he has won plenty of Qualifiers to earn spots in main draws, although without having a big impact in a tournament as he would have liked.

Rinky Hijikata has yet to win two matches in a row in the main draw of any ATP Tour event, but he will take aim at doing that in the Second Round here.

Out of the two players, Hijikata has been the one having more success on the return and that could be important on a surface like the one that tends to play at this hard court Masters event.

However, Luciano Darderi will take plenty of confidence out of beating Rinky Hijikata at a couple of Grand Slam events, including a crushing display at the US Open last year.

The Italian has won all six sets against this opponent and Luciano Darderi may do enough to edge past this spread.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.53 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Luciano Darderi - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 2-3, - 1.10 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 3 Picks 2026 (Friday 6th March)

It has been a conscious decision to make a slower start to the Tennis Picks at Indian Wells and that is partly down to the uncertainty as to how conditions are playing here this year.

The other reason is the continuous rumours of illnesses surging through the field, which is something that slightly concerns me whenever I've seen a price drifting.

Two selections have been made from the opening Second Round matches at the tournament as Day 3 gets underway.

On Thursday, the two selections were split with a win apiece, but that meant the narrowest of positive returns- at the moment the idea is to slowly build into the event, but you just never know when there are multiple matches that hit the criteria being used to move from shortlist to selection.

Victoria Mboko - 5.5 games v Kimberly Birrell: Like many sports, there is always going to be times when you want to identify the next big stars coming through.

Two teenagers are making waves in the top ten of the World Rankings and Victoria Mboko may be feeling most confident.

The 19 year old has reached the Final at a couple of tournaments on the hard courts in 2026, although Victoria Mboko has come up short both times. The latter of those appearances was in the Final of the WTA 1000 event in Doha and Mboko has also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

Twelve months ago, Victoria Mboko was sitting outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and would have been taking part in tournaments far below this elite level. It means the Canadian has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points until the Tour moves significantly into the clay court season in preparation for the French Open and Victoria Mboko has been playing well enough to believe she can have a strong impact in Indian Wells.

Playing here for the first time will be challenging, but Mboko has to be pretty comfortable with the opponent she is facing in the Second Round.

Kimberly Birrell was a comfortable winner in the First Round and reached the Semi Final in Austin last week, but it has been a real struggle for the World Number 69 when she has stepped up to face some of the top players on the Tour.

Over the last twelve months, Kimberly Birrell has a 4-8 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents and her numbers have taken a significant dip in those compared with her overall form on the surface.

The first serve has perhaps not had the impact she would have hoped and Kimberly Birrell has struggled on the return, which are both going to pose problems for her in this kind of match.

Both Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina have secured very strong wins over Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts in 2026, while Victoria Mboko beat her for the loss of just three games in the Adelaide Semi Final back in January.

This is the second time Victoria Mboko has beaten Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts over the last seven months and the younger player has been a much more confident server in those head to head matches. When they played in Montreal last August, Mboko wasn't quite as effective on the return, but still won pretty handily and was much improved in that aspect of her tennis when facing the Australian in Adelaide.

You have to expect Kimberly Birrell has picked up some confidence from her performance in Austin and then winning an opening Round match here, which also means being a bit more comfortable in the conditions.

However, not only has she lost all five hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but Kimberly Birrell would not have covered this line in four of those defeats and that may be the case again in the Second Round.

Alexandra Eala v Dayana Yastremska: One player who seemingly plays at an unexpected level when she is opposed on these pages, but is so far off it when she is backed, is Dayana Yastremska.

However, she is going to be opposed in this Second Round match at Indian Wells.

A win in the First Round will have made the World Number 52 feel a lot better about her tennis, but she has a 4-7 record prior to Indian Wells on the hard courts. Dayana Yastremska has struggled for any kind of consistency and her numbers on serve and return both back that up.

Draws can slant any record, but it should be noted that Dayana Yastremska is just 4-4 when going into a match as the higher Ranked player- even in those matches, the numbers remain disappointing for a former Australian Open Semi Finalist.

Without a doubt that has to have had an impact on the confidence.

At the moment it does feel like Alexandra Eala is a touch overrated in the main- she has played at Rafael Nadal's Academy, which will generate headlines, and the youngster has put some solid results on the board that means she climbed 100 places in the World Rankings from January 2025 to January 2026.

An early exit at the Australian Open would have hurt considering the support she received, but Alexandra Eala has bounced back with a solid run through the Middle East.

Out of the two players, Alexandra Eala has been putting up some solid hard court numbers and she will have taken confidence from the crushing win produced over Dayana Yastremska on the grass courts of Eastbourne last June.

A slow hard court is a different test, but Alexandra Eala comes into the match having won nine of the thirteen matches played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts this season. Her numbers have been very good, and she looks like she can edge past the Ukrainian into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexandra Eala @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 1-2, - 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 2 Picks 2026 (Thursday 5th March)

There have been some mixed reviews about how the Indian Wells surface has been playing through the opening few days at the first of two big Masters 1000 events to be played this month.

It certainly warrants something of a watching brief with some stating it is perhaps faster than usual, while others continue to describe Indian Wells as a slow hard court.

The ball change could be having an early impact too, but it is something to keep an eye upon as the First Round is completed on Thursday.

One selection was made on Wednesday and, unfortunately, that did not return as hoped, but there are two ATP selections for the completion of the First Round, which can be read below.

Terence Atmane v Grigor Dimitrov: There will be a hope that every tournament that Grigor Dimitrov plays will get him closer to the form he was displaying before his injury at Wimbledon last year. He was right on course to beat eventual Champion Jannik Sinner in that Fourth Round match at the third Grand Slam of the 2025 season, but the Bulgarian has not had any real success since returning to the Tour.

Grigor Dimitrov won a match at the Paris Masters at the end of 2025 before having to withdraw from the tournament.

Another return was made earlier this year in Brisbane in the preparation for the Australian Open and Grigor Dimitrov comfortably got the better of fellow veteran Pablo Carreno Busta.

However, that has been the highlight for the World Number 42 who has lost his next four matches with opening Round defeats at the Australian Open followed by more of the same in Dallas and Acapulco. Grigor Dimitrov has struggled massively on the return of serve with just 28% of points won when facing serve, and that has put a lot of pressure on his own serve.

The next month could see Dimitrov take a big slip in the World Rankings as he defends a Fourth Round run in Indian Wells and then a Semi Final run from the Miami Masters. If he can get healthy, there will be plenty of Ranking Points to pick up after Wimbledon, but the draws get tougher and having to Qualify for events will just add to the pressure around the former World Number 3.

The 34 year old faces an opponent who is ten years his junior and Terence Atmane will be confident having beaten Grigor Dimitrov last week on the hard courts of Acapulco.

He dominated that match with 74% of service points won and facing just a couple of Break Points, while Atmane won 41% of points played on the Grigor Dimitrov serve and broke serve three times.

Terence Atmane is playing at a career high World Ranking after reaching the Quarter Final in Acapulco, but he will know there is still room for improvement on the hard courts.

Despite that, he has been playing well enough to believe he can frank the win over Grigor Dimitrov having been much more effective on the return of serve since heading over to North and Central America following his trip Down Under. That can be very important in the conditions at the Masters event in Indian Wells and the Frenchman looks a decent underdog to get behind.

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 games v Francisco Comesana: A disappointing run in January and the early loss at the Australian Open may have dented some confidence, but much of that should be restored by Sebastian Korda after recent efforts.

He has clearly enjoyed being back in North America and Sebastian Korda returned by reaching the Final of a Challenger event held in San Diego.

Backing that up are his efforts in Dallas and Delray Beach having reached the Quarter Final of the former and winning the title at the latter and Korda is now well rested.

Facing an opponent who is more comfortable on the clay courts can be dangerous on what have usually been slower hard courts in Indian Wells, but Sebastian Korda is right to be set as a strong favourite when facing Francisco Comesana.

It is no surprise that Francisco Comesana took in clay court tournaments after the Australian Open, but he has not exactly been racking up the wins in those. Earlier this year through to the first Grand Slam of the season, Comesana finished with a 2-3 record on the hard courts and he certainly served well enough to offer some resistance in this First Round match, even if conditions tend to favour the returner.

His opponent has also been serving really well on the surface, but Sebastian Korda has broken in 21% of return games compared with Francisco Comesana's 11% mark and that is likely going to be a factor in the outcome of this match.

This is a big spread and can be awkward,  but Sebastian Korda looks worthy of backing in what is going to be a slow start to the tournament for the Tennis Picks.

MY PICKS: Terence Atmane @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 1 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 4th March)

The three weeks following the Australian Open were not as productive as the opening Grand Slam of the season for the Tennis Picks, but the solid return at the ATP Dubai event has pushed the season totals back in a positive direction.

The Final was not played in Dubai after Tallon Griekspoor decided he could not compete with the injury suffered in the Semi Final, but that tournament was unlikely to be concluded after escalating tensions in the Middle East led to open warfare in the region.

It is a concerning time for all, but the sporting world will try and continue and the Indian Wells Masters opens March with the first of two really important events.

This is also the time of the season when the opening hard court run comes to a conclusion and both Tours will soon turn the attention to the French Open.

We have had some clay court tennis played in South America, but the Tours will head back to Europe at the end of the Miami Masters later this month and that is when the serious push towards the French Open will begin with some big tournaments to be played.

Over recent years, most will have noted the conditions in Indian Wells and how different the hard courts play in the desert compared with the other North American hard court tournaments.

This has to be factored into the selections being made, but it has been a difficult tournament to read and that will also be considered.

Both ATP and WTA tournaments will be beginning on Wednesday and it will feature a similar schedule to Grand Slam events with the two halves of each draw being split to play on alternate days.

Unsurprisingly the fields are loaded with the best names on the Tour, including returning players like Aryna Sabalenka who have not been out on the court since Melbourne.

The top names will be entering the Masters event in the Second Round, which begins on Friday, but the First Round gets going on Wednesday and completed on Thursday before those big names enter the fray in what is long considered to be the 'biggest' tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

McCartney Kessler - 1.5 games v Zeynep Sonmez: Indian Wells may be described as the 'fifth Major', but this hard court tournament plays pretty differently to most on the Tour.

Adjustments have to be made to the criteria for selections compared with some of the other hard court events played through the course of the year.

That does not only apply to those of us watching, but the players themselves have to made adjustments in a tournament where the return has been very important. Most hard courts may favour stronger serving, but that has not always been the case in Indian Wells where the wind can pick up and the ball can fly through the air very quickly at times.

McCartney Kessler is the sole selection from the host of First Round matches to be played on Wednesday as the main draw gets underway in both the WTA and ATP events.

The American should be a little more familiar all around with the differences in events played in her country and Kessler has played in the main draw here before. Last season she was beaten in the Second Round by Aryna Sabalenka, but McCartney Kessler has been growing on the Tour and had much stronger runs at other WTA 1000 events played on the hard courts as the season progressed.

The 4-3 record to open 2026 may not inspire, but McCartney Kessler has been in with tough competition for the majority of those matches. That is certainly the case in terms of the World Rankings of opponents faced and Kessler has still been able to produce some solid numbers overall.

Her opponent has an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2026, but half of those wins have been in Qualifying settings and Zeynep Sonmez had lost four hard court matches in a row before reaching the Quarter Final in Merida last week.

The World Number 80 has built her opening record on getting the better of weaker players on the Tour and the 3-6 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents has to be a concern. Zeynep Sonmez actually upset the highest Ranked opponent she has faced in Ekaterina Alexandrova (World Number 11) at the Australian Open, but none of the other matches have been against anyone Ranked higher than World Number 39 and that makes the record look a little weaker.

The serve has really been an issue in those nine matches and McCartney Kessler may be able to tee off on some of the returns to get on the front foot in the rally.

It also should be said that Zaynep Sonmez has produced a slightly weaker return than the American and it may lead to the higher Ranked player coming through with a solid win.

A concern has to be the back issue that forced McCartney Kessler to miss the Middle East swing after reaching the Quarter Final in Abu Dhabi, but that is factored into the odds.

MY PICKS: McCartney Kessler - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 62-46, + 15.25 Units (174 Units Staked, + 8.76% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 16th March)

The tournament has proven to be the first of the 2025 season that will finish with a significant dip, but it was never going to be an eleven months where only ticking in a positive direction was going to be the outcome.

There is one selection from the WTA Final at Indian Wells before thoughts will turn to Miami and the opportunity to bounce back, and Picks from that Masters event will begin on Tuesday or Wednesday. The second of the hard court events played this month will round out March and then everyone will begin preparation for the French Open at the end of May with European clay court tournaments helping the players every step of the way.

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: If you think the Australian Open Final defeat did not hurt Aryna Sabalenka after winning that title twice in a row, her Semi Final performance will have made no doubt about how much she thinks about Melbourne 2025.

That defeat came at the hands of Madison Keys, but Aryna Sabalenka crushed the American for the loss of a single game in the Semi Final and admitted afterwards how much the match meant to her.

It is only part of a run of five strong wins and Aryna Sabalenka continues to show she is the player to beat on the hard courts.

Taking up the challenge is 17 year old Mirra Andreeva who has to be given all credit for beating Iga Swiatek in the Semi Final, despite having a tough second set. Any time a player beats someone as good as Iga Swiatek, they are going to be feeling good about their tennis, but Mirra Andreeva is becoming accustomed to beating the biggest names on the Tour having done the same on her way to the Dubai title last month.

Mirra Andreeva has continued her fine serving here in Indian Wells and she is going to need all of that if she is going to beat the World Number 1.

She played the key points well behind that shot in her Semi Final win with five of six Break Points saved, but Andreeva will need to find a way to be a bit more productive on the return. In that Semi Final win over Iga Swiatek, Mirra Andreeva won 39% of return points played and she is facing a much bigger server with the title on the line in Indian Wells.

The World Number is always going to be a tough server to face, but Aryna Sabalenka is backing that up with aggressive returning and that may just give her the edge in the Indian Wells Final.

Last year Mirra Andreeva upset Aryna Sabalenka at the French Open, but it is the latter who has won both matches played in 2025 on the hard courts, including a crushing win at the Australian Open.

In those two hard court matches this season, Aryna Sabalenka's serve has been strong enough to just contain Mirra Andreeva and allowed the World Number 1 to play with attacking intent on the return. This has led to a couple of pretty straight-forward victories and the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka can win and cover in this Final on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-8, - 3.93 Units (13 Units Staked, - 30.23% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th March)

The two WTA Semi Finals were scheduled for Friday, but they feature what many may feel are the current top four players in the world and neither match has been very easy to call.

Mirra Andreeva will be looking to really start making her mark against the top players by beating Iga Swiatek on the hard courts again, while Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys is a repeat of the Australian Open Final and with both playing well enough in Indian Wells to want to take a watching interest.

Saturday will feature the two ATP Semi Finals and selections can be read below.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Holger Rune: Conditions in Indian Wells can become very difficult and that may have contributed to Daniil Medvedev's mid-match slump in his eventual Quarter Final win over Arthur Fils. He was the deserved winner on the day, but Medvedev will also be happy to hear that the conditions at the tournament are set to be warmer and a lot less windy over the final couple of days.

That will also suit Holger Rune, who needed three sets for the second time in four matches to win his own Quarter Final.

An inconsistent opening to 2025 will have felt like a disappointment for Holger Rune who had a 6-5 record on the hard courts before entering Indian Wells. Four wins in a row will have given him confidence, especially when you consider how well Rune has played in those matches, and he will certainly feel he can offer plenty in this Semi Final against the World Number 6.

He will need to produce some quality tennis if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev, who has only needed to win three matches to earn his own spot in the Semi Final having been the beneficiary of a Third Round match that lasted just two games.

However, the level of tennis being produced by Daniil Medvedev has to be very encouraging, even after that dip against Arthur Fils in the Quarter Final, and the conditions should have eased to help the Russian with his serve and style of play.

Both players will be pretty happy with the returning numbers and will believe they can maintain those levels, but Daniil Medvedev may believe he is the one that has more to come behind the serve.

Holger Rune has been producing really well behind that shot at this tournament, but he has not been at his best on the serve in 2025, whereas Daniil Medvedev has not quite matched his overall season numbers. This is a factor that could easily swing back towards Medvedev within this match, especially having won the last two meetings against Holger Rune, including here in Indian Wells twelve months ago.

Both have slipped from the World Ranking mark they held going into the 2024 tournament, but Daniil Medvedev is still operating at a level where he will believe he can frank that victory with another at the same tournament.

In that Quarter Final match, it was Daniil Medvedev who showed off the stronger returning play and he had Holger Rune under the cosh in plenty of his service games. The two sets played were competitive thanks to Rune's own ability to get stuck into the return, but Daniil Medvedev was the right winner and has produced more so far this season to believe he edges past the Dane again.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Jack Draper: Some have accused Jack Draper of 'quitting' in matches against Carlos Alcaraz, but that will be put to the test when they meet in the Semi Final in Indian Wells.

The British player beat Carlos Alcaraz on the grass of Queen's Club last year, which is a huge win for Jack Draper considering Alcaraz is now a two time Wimbledon Champion. However, either side of that victory, Draper has been forced to pull out mid-match against Carlos Alcaraz both here in Indian Wells in 2023 and at the Australian Open earlier this year.

In both of those matches, Jack Draper was well on the way to defeat and it is those moments that many feel is something that can be used to beat him with.

No excuses will be made for the World Number 14 this week and the performances in winning four matches at the tournament will have given Jack Draper a lot of confidence. He has won all eight sets played and the strong lefty serve has allowed him to play with some freedom on the return, which has ultimately led to some dominant victories.

Three American players have been beaten so Jack Draper should be accustomed to his opponent earning the majority of the support from the stands, and he has to be given credit for the way he has played the big points.

Doing that again will be key for Jack Draper as he prepares to face the World Number 3 and a player who has opened 2025 in very strong form, even after the disappointing Quarter Final exit at the Australian Open.

Carlos Alcaraz has produced some special numbers, but is somehow exceeding those in Indian Wells having also won all four matches in straight sets.

The Quarter Final win was the toughest with the second set needing a tie-breaker, but five of the eight sets have been won with the loss of three or fewer games and two others had seen the opponent win just four games as Carlos Alcaraz has shown his comfort in playing through windy conditions.

Serving well has been huge for both Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper and both have won at least 70% of points played behind that shot, but it is Alcaraz who has shown the stronger returning ability.

That is not only through the tournament, but in general on the hard courts and Carlos Alcaraz' returning numbers are right in line with the way 2025 has opened up for him. On the other side of the court, Jack Draper is returning better here than he had been before Indian Wells and so it may be tougher for the lower Ranked player to keep finding that level, especially against some with the obvious qualities of the Spaniard across the net.

In their previous four pro meetings, Carlos Alcaraz has shown he can get his teeth into the Jack Draper serve and the expectation is of more of the same in this Semi Final.

Covering the handicap will be far from easy if Jack Draper is concentrating fully on his serving, but the feeling is that the scoreboard pressure will tell at key times and that should see Carlos Alcaraz through to another Masters Final with a solid victory under his belt.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-6, - 1.93 Units (11 Units Staked, - 17.55% Yield)