Indian Wells Tennis Day 3 Picks 2026 (Friday 6th March)

It has been a conscious decision to make a slower start to the Tennis Picks at Indian Wells and that is partly down to the uncertainty as to how conditions are playing here this year.

The other reason is the continuous rumours of illnesses surging through the field, which is something that slightly concerns me whenever I've seen a price drifting.

Two selections have been made from the opening Second Round matches at the tournament as Day 3 gets underway.

On Thursday, the two selections were split with a win apiece, but that meant the narrowest of positive returns- at the moment the idea is to slowly build into the event, but you just never know when there are multiple matches that hit the criteria being used to move from shortlist to selection.

Victoria Mboko - 5.5 games v Kimberly Birrell: Like many sports, there is always going to be times when you want to identify the next big stars coming through.

Two teenagers are making waves in the top ten of the World Rankings and Victoria Mboko may be feeling most confident.

The 19 year old has reached the Final at a couple of tournaments on the hard courts in 2026, although Victoria Mboko has come up short both times. The latter of those appearances was in the Final of the WTA 1000 event in Doha and Mboko has also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

Twelve months ago, Victoria Mboko was sitting outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and would have been taking part in tournaments far below this elite level. It means the Canadian has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points until the Tour moves significantly into the clay court season in preparation for the French Open and Victoria Mboko has been playing well enough to believe she can have a strong impact in Indian Wells.

Playing here for the first time will be challenging, but Mboko has to be pretty comfortable with the opponent she is facing in the Second Round.

Kimberly Birrell was a comfortable winner in the First Round and reached the Semi Final in Austin last week, but it has been a real struggle for the World Number 69 when she has stepped up to face some of the top players on the Tour.

Over the last twelve months, Kimberly Birrell has a 4-8 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents and her numbers have taken a significant dip in those compared with her overall form on the surface.

The first serve has perhaps not had the impact she would have hoped and Kimberly Birrell has struggled on the return, which are both going to pose problems for her in this kind of match.

Both Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina have secured very strong wins over Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts in 2026, while Victoria Mboko beat her for the loss of just three games in the Adelaide Semi Final back in January.

This is the second time Victoria Mboko has beaten Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts over the last seven months and the younger player has been a much more confident server in those head to head matches. When they played in Montreal last August, Mboko wasn't quite as effective on the return, but still won pretty handily and was much improved in that aspect of her tennis when facing the Australian in Adelaide.

You have to expect Kimberly Birrell has picked up some confidence from her performance in Austin and then winning an opening Round match here, which also means being a bit more comfortable in the conditions.

However, not only has she lost all five hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but Kimberly Birrell would not have covered this line in four of those defeats and that may be the case again in the Second Round.

Alexandra Eala v Dayana Yastremska: One player who seemingly plays at an unexpected level when she is opposed on these pages, but is so far off it when she is backed, is Dayana Yastremska.

However, she is going to be opposed in this Second Round match at Indian Wells.

A win in the First Round will have made the World Number 52 feel a lot better about her tennis, but she has a 4-7 record prior to Indian Wells on the hard courts. Dayana Yastremska has struggled for any kind of consistency and her numbers on serve and return both back that up.

Draws can slant any record, but it should be noted that Dayana Yastremska is just 4-4 when going into a match as the higher Ranked player- even in those matches, the numbers remain disappointing for a former Australian Open Semi Finalist.

Without a doubt that has to have had an impact on the confidence.

At the moment it does feel like Alexandra Eala is a touch overrated in the main- she has played at Rafael Nadal's Academy, which will generate headlines, and the youngster has put some solid results on the board that means she climbed 100 places in the World Rankings from January 2025 to January 2026.

An early exit at the Australian Open would have hurt considering the support she received, but Alexandra Eala has bounced back with a solid run through the Middle East.

Out of the two players, Alexandra Eala has been putting up some solid hard court numbers and she will have taken confidence from the crushing win produced over Dayana Yastremska on the grass courts of Eastbourne last June.

A slow hard court is a different test, but Alexandra Eala comes into the match having won nine of the thirteen matches played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts this season. Her numbers have been very good, and she looks like she can edge past the Ukrainian into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexandra Eala @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 1-2, - 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 2 Picks 2026 (Thursday 5th March)

There have been some mixed reviews about how the Indian Wells surface has been playing through the opening few days at the first of two big Masters 1000 events to be played this month.

It certainly warrants something of a watching brief with some stating it is perhaps faster than usual, while others continue to describe Indian Wells as a slow hard court.

The ball change could be having an early impact too, but it is something to keep an eye upon as the First Round is completed on Thursday.

One selection was made on Wednesday and, unfortunately, that did not return as hoped, but there are two ATP selections for the completion of the First Round, which can be read below.

Terence Atmane v Grigor Dimitrov: There will be a hope that every tournament that Grigor Dimitrov plays will get him closer to the form he was displaying before his injury at Wimbledon last year. He was right on course to beat eventual Champion Jannik Sinner in that Fourth Round match at the third Grand Slam of the 2025 season, but the Bulgarian has not had any real success since returning to the Tour.

Grigor Dimitrov won a match at the Paris Masters at the end of 2025 before having to withdraw from the tournament.

Another return was made earlier this year in Brisbane in the preparation for the Australian Open and Grigor Dimitrov comfortably got the better of fellow veteran Pablo Carreno Busta.

However, that has been the highlight for the World Number 42 who has lost his next four matches with opening Round defeats at the Australian Open followed by more of the same in Dallas and Acapulco. Grigor Dimitrov has struggled massively on the return of serve with just 28% of points won when facing serve, and that has put a lot of pressure on his own serve.

The next month could see Dimitrov take a big slip in the World Rankings as he defends a Fourth Round run in Indian Wells and then a Semi Final run from the Miami Masters. If he can get healthy, there will be plenty of Ranking Points to pick up after Wimbledon, but the draws get tougher and having to Qualify for events will just add to the pressure around the former World Number 3.

The 34 year old faces an opponent who is ten years his junior and Terence Atmane will be confident having beaten Grigor Dimitrov last week on the hard courts of Acapulco.

He dominated that match with 74% of service points won and facing just a couple of Break Points, while Atmane won 41% of points played on the Grigor Dimitrov serve and broke serve three times.

Terence Atmane is playing at a career high World Ranking after reaching the Quarter Final in Acapulco, but he will know there is still room for improvement on the hard courts.

Despite that, he has been playing well enough to believe he can frank the win over Grigor Dimitrov having been much more effective on the return of serve since heading over to North and Central America following his trip Down Under. That can be very important in the conditions at the Masters event in Indian Wells and the Frenchman looks a decent underdog to get behind.

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 games v Francisco Comesana: A disappointing run in January and the early loss at the Australian Open may have dented some confidence, but much of that should be restored by Sebastian Korda after recent efforts.

He has clearly enjoyed being back in North America and Sebastian Korda returned by reaching the Final of a Challenger event held in San Diego.

Backing that up are his efforts in Dallas and Delray Beach having reached the Quarter Final of the former and winning the title at the latter and Korda is now well rested.

Facing an opponent who is more comfortable on the clay courts can be dangerous on what have usually been slower hard courts in Indian Wells, but Sebastian Korda is right to be set as a strong favourite when facing Francisco Comesana.

It is no surprise that Francisco Comesana took in clay court tournaments after the Australian Open, but he has not exactly been racking up the wins in those. Earlier this year through to the first Grand Slam of the season, Comesana finished with a 2-3 record on the hard courts and he certainly served well enough to offer some resistance in this First Round match, even if conditions tend to favour the returner.

His opponent has also been serving really well on the surface, but Sebastian Korda has broken in 21% of return games compared with Francisco Comesana's 11% mark and that is likely going to be a factor in the outcome of this match.

This is a big spread and can be awkward,  but Sebastian Korda looks worthy of backing in what is going to be a slow start to the tournament for the Tennis Picks.

MY PICKS: Terence Atmane @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Day 1 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 4th March)

The three weeks following the Australian Open were not as productive as the opening Grand Slam of the season for the Tennis Picks, but the solid return at the ATP Dubai event has pushed the season totals back in a positive direction.

The Final was not played in Dubai after Tallon Griekspoor decided he could not compete with the injury suffered in the Semi Final, but that tournament was unlikely to be concluded after escalating tensions in the Middle East led to open warfare in the region.

It is a concerning time for all, but the sporting world will try and continue and the Indian Wells Masters opens March with the first of two really important events.

This is also the time of the season when the opening hard court run comes to a conclusion and both Tours will soon turn the attention to the French Open.

We have had some clay court tennis played in South America, but the Tours will head back to Europe at the end of the Miami Masters later this month and that is when the serious push towards the French Open will begin with some big tournaments to be played.

Over recent years, most will have noted the conditions in Indian Wells and how different the hard courts play in the desert compared with the other North American hard court tournaments.

This has to be factored into the selections being made, but it has been a difficult tournament to read and that will also be considered.

Both ATP and WTA tournaments will be beginning on Wednesday and it will feature a similar schedule to Grand Slam events with the two halves of each draw being split to play on alternate days.

Unsurprisingly the fields are loaded with the best names on the Tour, including returning players like Aryna Sabalenka who have not been out on the court since Melbourne.

The top names will be entering the Masters event in the Second Round, which begins on Friday, but the First Round gets going on Wednesday and completed on Thursday before those big names enter the fray in what is long considered to be the 'biggest' tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

McCartney Kessler - 1.5 games v Zeynep Sonmez: Indian Wells may be described as the 'fifth Major', but this hard court tournament plays pretty differently to most on the Tour.

Adjustments have to be made to the criteria for selections compared with some of the other hard court events played through the course of the year.

That does not only apply to those of us watching, but the players themselves have to made adjustments in a tournament where the return has been very important. Most hard courts may favour stronger serving, but that has not always been the case in Indian Wells where the wind can pick up and the ball can fly through the air very quickly at times.

McCartney Kessler is the sole selection from the host of First Round matches to be played on Wednesday as the main draw gets underway in both the WTA and ATP events.

The American should be a little more familiar all around with the differences in events played in her country and Kessler has played in the main draw here before. Last season she was beaten in the Second Round by Aryna Sabalenka, but McCartney Kessler has been growing on the Tour and had much stronger runs at other WTA 1000 events played on the hard courts as the season progressed.

The 4-3 record to open 2026 may not inspire, but McCartney Kessler has been in with tough competition for the majority of those matches. That is certainly the case in terms of the World Rankings of opponents faced and Kessler has still been able to produce some solid numbers overall.

Her opponent has an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2026, but half of those wins have been in Qualifying settings and Zeynep Sonmez had lost four hard court matches in a row before reaching the Quarter Final in Merida last week.

The World Number 80 has built her opening record on getting the better of weaker players on the Tour and the 3-6 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents has to be a concern. Zeynep Sonmez actually upset the highest Ranked opponent she has faced in Ekaterina Alexandrova (World Number 11) at the Australian Open, but none of the other matches have been against anyone Ranked higher than World Number 39 and that makes the record look a little weaker.

The serve has really been an issue in those nine matches and McCartney Kessler may be able to tee off on some of the returns to get on the front foot in the rally.

It also should be said that Zaynep Sonmez has produced a slightly weaker return than the American and it may lead to the higher Ranked player coming through with a solid win.

A concern has to be the back issue that forced McCartney Kessler to miss the Middle East swing after reaching the Quarter Final in Abu Dhabi, but that is factored into the odds.

MY PICKS: McCartney Kessler - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 62-46, + 15.25 Units (174 Units Staked, + 8.76% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th March)

One winner, one loser, and that continues a relatively poor trend in Indian Wells, although it could be worse.

The poor weather delayed many of the matches, but the tournament has stayed on schedule and that means the remaining Fourth Round matches will be played on Wednesday as we move into the business end of the first of back to back Masters events.

Once again it will be two selections from the matches scheduled to be played and those can be read below.

Coco Gauff v Belinda Bencic: No one could have anticipated Belinda Bencic's return to the Tour to be as successful as it has been just several months after giving birth.

Even the former top ten Ranked player admitted that she had entered some events with little expectation, but Belinda Bencic played well in Melbourne at the Australian Open and has backed that up really well. Winning the WTA 500 event in Abu Dhabi will have provided another boost in confidence after the run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Belinda Bencis has been in fine form in Indian Wells.

Three wins have been secured here and the last two have been against top 20 Ranked opponents, including beating Doha Champion Amanda Anisimova in the Second Round.

Belinda Bencic has always been a decent server on the hard courts, but she is certainly playing with more aggression and belief in her return and that has been key to the performances and results produced.

Next up is another big test for the Swiss player when going up against Coco Gauff, who will have plenty of support from the stands.

The World Number 3 was beaten in the Australian Open Quarter Final, which was a huge disappointment, but followed up with opening defeats in both Doha and Dubai. That meant Coco Gauff entered the tournament in Indian Wells having lost three hard court matches in a row, and there is a vulnerability about her tennis despite winning twice in this WTA 1000 event.

Coco Gauff was better in the Third Round win over Maria Sakkari than in her opening victory here, but she will be tested by a confident Belinda Bencic.

They met at the Australian Open in January and Coco Gauff had to fight back from a set down to get the better of this opponent. Her serve is still an issue, especially the second serve, but Coco Gauff may feel she can get enough balls back into play to wear down Belinda Bencic, even if the latter is playing at a really good level.

Too many Double Faults are putting Coco Gauff under pressure, but the first serve could offer up some cheaper points and Belinda Bencic may just come up short against a top ten Ranked opponent for the fourth time in five matches played in 2025.

Brandon Nakashima-Ben Shelton over 23.5 games: Two American players will be looking for a strong serving day in order to book their place in the Quarter Final of the first ATP Masters played in 2025.

Brandon Nakashima has forced his way into the World Number 33 Ranking spot, which is his career best mark, and his confidence has to be in a good place after reaching the Semi Final in Acapulco and Quarter Final in Delray Beach. The hard courts are a surface on which Brandon Nakashima is very comfortable and his two wins in Indian Wells have come in dominant fashion.

There is room for improvement as far as the return of serve numbers go, but Brandon Nakashima has displayed quality serving and that has put the scoreboard pressure on opponents.

He will need to serve well when taking on compatriot Ben Shelton, who is the World Number 12, which is also his peak career Ranking.

Ben Shelton has certainly looked like a player that enjoys the big stage and that was backed up by reaching the Australian Open Semi Final. Early losses in hard court events in February will have been a disappointment, but Shelton has been in good form in Indian Wells and has won back to back matches for the first time since Melbourne.

Much like his opponent, Ben Shelton has been a very strong server and that has used that to try and build scoreboard pressure. His return still has room to be improved, again like Brandon Nakashima, and both players are likely going to be as successful as their serving can be on the day.

It is Ben Shelton who has won all three previous meetings between the players on the Tour and that includes a victory at the Australian Open. Ben Shelton has won all seven sets played against Brandon Nakashima, but it should also be noted that every set has seen both players win at least five games.

That is not surprising when you think Ben Shelton has won 71% of service points played and held 95% of those games played, while Brandon Nakashima has won 70% of service points played leading to holds in 88% of service games played.

The mental edge is with Ben Shelton having won the big points to secure the victories, but the players can combine to cover this total games line set. Both have served well enough to believe they can look after that aspect of their tennis and that should mean tie-breakers are in play, which can quickly put this Fourth Round match on the way to surpassing the total set.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Brandon Nakashima-Ben Shelton Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 3-3, - 0.52 Units (6 Units Staked, - 8.67% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th March)

Tennis Paradise.

The marketing promotes this side of Indian Wells and the fans and players do love playing in this part of California, but the opening day of the main draw of this Masters 1000 event was cold, windy and ultimately too rainy to complete.

It does mean a loaded Thursday at the tournament as the remainder of the First Round is all scheduled to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events taking place and all in preparation for the Seeded players to join the party on Friday.

The weather forecast for the rest of the tournament is looking much more like what we have come to expect from Indian Wells and it will be interesting to hear how players like the new conditions- the tournament had been operating one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but early indications is that the courts are much quicker in 2024 and the desert air will contribute to the balls flying through the court.

It is something we will have to keep in mind compared with previous Indian Wells tournaments.

The conditions were one negative of the opening day of the main draw, but the bigger story is clearly the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal who continues to feel he is unable to operate at the level needed to be back on the Tour.

An exhibition was played against Carlos Alcaraz, but poor movement in practice had suggested Nadal was dealing with a problem and it looks like any return to the Tour will now have to wait until the clay court season, which begins next month.

This is yet another hint towards retirement and it would not be a surprise if the Spaniard calls time on his career after the Olympic Games, also played at his favourite Grand Slam surroundings in Roland Garros. The only hope for fans is that we are going to get to see Rafael Nadal enjoying his tennis and being able to head off on his own terms, but there has to be a concern as to how he will be able to hold up through the tough clay court season in the build to the French Open.

Only half of the Tennis Picks were completed on Thursday as the rain hit the event and postponed a number of matches until Thursday.

A number of other selections from the First Round matches that were originally scheduled for Thursday can be read below as the tournament prepares to welcome some of the top names on the Tour to the action in the Second Round.

Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Conditions may favour the latter at Indian Wells if the courts are playing very quickly, but Lorenzo Sonego has been struggling for any kind of consistent form in 2024.

He has had his moments, and the serve makes him dangerous, but Sonego has not been returning very well and that may give Miomir Kecmanovic the edge in this First Round match.

The Serb has not exactly been piling up the wins, but the run to the Quarter Final in Acapulco will have him feeling better about his overall tennis.

Lorenzo Sonego may bemoan some of the early draws given to him in 2024, but his ending to 2023 on the hard courts was also pretty ineffective and Kecmanovic can move in front in their head to head on the Tour.

Tomas Machac - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The money has come in on the younger player who has produced some very good hard court performances this season and Tomas Machac has to be happy in hearing about the faster court conditions.

Take nothing away from the achievements Stan Wawrinka has had in his career, but he has only played one hard court match this season and has now dropped as low as World Number 70 having peaked at World Number 3.

The lack of hard court tennis has to be a concern, while the move from the clay courts to the faster Indian Wells court may be more difficult than it has been previously.

Stan Wawrinka still has quality and can produce eye-catching tennis, but doing so over a couple of hours may be difficult against this opponent.

Tomas Machac has had solid hard court wins over the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Andy Murray this season, and he will feel he should have gotten the better of Karen Khachanov in Melbourne and Alexander Bublik in Dubai.

He did get the better of Stan Wawrinka on an indoor hard court at the back end of the 2023 season and Machac can do the same at Indian Wells.

Arthur Fils - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: He may have disappointed me on the clay courts, but Arthur Fils can be backed to win this First Round match.

Take nothing away from Nuno Borges who has backed up the run at the Australian Open with some big performances, but the numbers are average and it feels like he has just played the big points at an unsustainable level.

He will be out for revenge having won just two games in a big loss to Arthur Fils earlier this season, but things have gone much better for the Portuguese player since then.

There is a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Fils, and he has yet to show the consistency that people would have hoped, but this is a solid hard court player. As long as he serves well, Arthur Fils can get the better of Nuno Borges for a second time in 2024 and pick up some big Ranking points before the clay court season gets underway.

Patrick Kypson - 1.5 games v Ethan Quinn: Any player that wins two Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw of any tournament has to be given a lot of respect. It means they are familiar with the conditions and there will be some confidence having won two matches in a row, while Ethan Quinn will also note that his two wins were against players Ranked higher than Patrick Kypson.

There may also be a little bit of motivation from the fact Patrick Kypson earned a Wild Card spot into the main draw, while these two players met in a tight, competitive Challenger tournament Final in Cleveland.

Ultimately Kypson got the better of Ethan Quinn on the day with the slightly stronger serving making a difference and the feeling is that this will be the case when they face off in the First Round.

Patrick Kypson followed that tournament win in Cleveland by reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and operating at a higher level than Ethan Quinn may give the higher Ranked American the edge to move through to bigger contests in the Second Round.

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 games v Pavel Kotov: Reaching the Final in his home tournament in Santiago will have been a positive on one hand, but Alejandro Tabilo has to be disappointed he was not able to win the title.

That match was played a few days ago and travelling to Indian Wells to move onto a new surface is going to be a big ask.

Most would also expect Alejandro Tabilo to have his best results on the clay courts, but he is up at a new career high World Ranking mark of 39 and he came through two Qualifying Rounds on his way to winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.

Pavel Kotov is struggling for consistency and he may need Tabilo to be a little fatigued to have a chance to beat the lefty.

With this match on a Thursday, Alejandro Tabilo cannot have many excuses about being too tired to compete and the feeling is that he will get the better of this opponent and continue to improve the World Ranking.

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: A couple of solid Qualifier wins will have given Rebeka Masarova confidence and it is not ideal backing a player speaking about being unworried about results.

That is what was coming from the Emma Raducanu camp ahead of this WTA 1000 event with the British player speaking about development rather than getting matches under the belt.

Ultimately those things do go hand in hand and Emma Raducanu should be winning a match like this one against a solid, but unspectacular hard court opponent.

It has been a mixed start to 2024, but only the loss at the Australian Open has to be considered a really poor one for the former US Open Champion. In general Emma Raducanu has gotten the better of those she should be beating and Rebeka Masarova is one of those players.

The wins in the Qualifiers will give Masarova confidence, but the Spaniard had lost five of six matches prior to arriving at Indian Wells and Emma Raducanu can find her way through to the Second Round.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anna Blinkova: The upset over Elena Rybakina a the Australian Open may end up being the absolute highlight of Anna Blinkova's 2024 season, but she will be looking for more.

Wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Dayana Yastremska in San Diego shows that confidence is not a problem, but Anna Blinkova is going to need to be at her best to beat Karolina Pliskova.

If the conditions are as expected, Pliskova's serve could be a major weapon on Thursday and potentially deep into the tournament.

An injury hit twelve months has just pushed Karolina Pliskova out of the limelight generated by Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, but the Czech player has just reminded everyone of the danger she poses. After winning a title in Cluj, Karolina Pliskova reached the Semi Final in Doha and Fourth Round in Dubai, two big hard court events, and the only defeat suffered was in three sets to Gauff.

She will certainly feel she should have won that match and Karolina Pliskova had strong runs in Indian Wells in the past having twice reached the Semi Final and twice reached the Quarter Final.

Serving well will put Anna Blinkova under pressure and Karolina Pliskova can earn solid passage into the next Round.

MY PICKS: Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Patrick Kypson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0 % Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 19th)

Most of the ATP and WTA Tour participants would have made the journey across the United States from Indian Wells to Miami as the next Masters event on the calendar begins on Tuesday with the WTA First Round, but four players remain in California.

Both Indian Wells Finals are to be played on Sunday and both look like they could produce a lot of fun tennis for those attending.

I was a touch disappointed with the 1-1 return for the Tennis Picks on Saturday, although it was perhaps a fair reflection of the performances of those selections.

Daniil Medvedev could have easily covered the big line against Frances Tiafoe having missed a number of Break Points to move into a position to do that, although Carlos Alcaraz did have to fight through a very tough match against Jannik Sinner, which could have gone the other way.

It has still been a very strong tournament for the Tennis Picks and finishing off the right way on Sunday is all that I am thinking about now.

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Elena Rybakina: A rematch of the Australian Open Final will take place on the hard courts of Indian Wells when the WTA Final is played and you could make a case for Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina to be two of the best three players in the world.

Not many are in stronger form than the reigning Australian Open Champion and Elena Rybakina would be a top four Ranked player if she had received the Ranking points from winning Wimbledon last year. I think both will feel they can have a massive impact at Wimbledon in July, assuming Sabalenka will be allowed to compete this year, and these head to head matches throughout the year on the Tour can provide a mental edge if they are to come up against one another in those big Slam matches.

At the moment Aryna Sabalena has the edge over Elena Rybakina and I think she will frank that with a win in this Final.

Both are big hitters who want to get on the front foot, while the serve is a potent weapon for the two players.

I am not surprised that so many of their previous matches have needed a deciding set when you consider how important a single break of serve can be in matches between them.

Aryna Sabalenka has had the better of the returning numbers this week and that was the case in Melbourne back in January- I think that is likely to be the outcome of this one as Sabalenka closes in on the World Number 1 Ranking a little further.

Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev: After eighteen months where Daniil Medvedev has not kicked on as far as it looked was possible, he is looking for a Masters title at Indian Wells which will have him back amongst the very top players on the ATP Tour.

Winning the title will not improve his World Ranking, but it will give Medvedev confidence to take into the next Masters event in Miami and maybe even for the clay court season if he can win on what he considers to be a slow surface.

The World Number 1 Ranking is on the line for Carlos Alcaraz and a win would take him back past Novak Djokovic- the Spaniard missed the Australian Open which was won by Djokovic, but the absence of the latter for these two American Masters events have opened the door for Carlos Alcaraz ahead of the clay court season when he may be considered the favourite alongside Novak Djokovic to win the next Grand Slam event at the French Open.

His return to the hard courts could not have gone much better and I do think the conditions will suit Carlos Alcaraz more than Daniil Medvedev. The numbers from the tournament have backed that up with Alcaraz getting a bit more out of his return as he looks to square up the professional match head to head with Daniil Medvedev at 1-1.

The highest Ranked player beaten by Medvedev at the Indian Wells tournament has been Alexander Zverev, the current World Number 14, but Carlos Alcaraz has seen off Felix Auger-Aliassime (World Number 10) and Jannik Sinner (World Number 13) and still produced the stronger numbers at the tournament.

Both are extremely confident hard court players, which has to be respected, but I think the conditions are more favourable to Carlos Alcaraz and he can find a way to come through as the favourite in the ATP Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 23-14, + 11.01 Units (75 Units Staked, + 14.68% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 18th)

I'm annoyed.

No, not with the sole Semi Final Pick from the WTA Semi Finals on Friday.

Aryna Sabalenka won and won well as we get set for a repeat of the Australian Open Final when she meets Elena Rybakina.

What I am irritated about is the fact I had wrote a full post out for the two Tennis selections to be made from the ATP Semi Finals and somehow managed to delete it completely... Not delete the content, but the whole post.

Urghh.

Right, so that means I am going to place my selections below instead of a fuller post.

I do like both of the favourites to cover- short analysis is that I think Daniil Medevedev and Carlos Alcaraz are the superior return players in the match.

Frances Tiafoe has had a very strong tournament, but Medvedev impressed in the last Round and has had a pretty good time matching up with the American.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner should be a lot of fun, but the Spaniard has had the better of their hard court meetings and been the much stronger return player.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 22-13, + 11.41 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.07% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 17th)

I have opted to miss out on making any Tennis Picks over the last two days and that is largely down to a narrowing of my criteria for selections this season.

After a disappointing 2022, and a pretty horrific day early at the US Open, those changes needed to be made and I think my adjustments had just fallen behind the layers having previously put together a number of successful seasons.

Being one step behind the odds compilers is a massive problem, but I do feel I may be in a better place now and the being tougher on the Picks has yielded a positive position early in this long season.

These are decisions that have to be made and I do think the open record makes it clear in black and white when it feels like things are not going as planned. Without that, you can end up in a terrible place in my opinion and it leads to maintaining the same approach over and over again and expecting results to change, which we all know is the definition of only one thing.

So the Indian Wells totals have remained in the same place as they were after the Fourth Round and we are down to the final three days at the tournament.

On Friday the WTA Semi Final matches are set to take centre stage before the two ATP Semi Finals on Saturday.

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: After winning the first professional meeting between these players, Maria Sakkari was to lose four in a row against Aryna Sabalenka. The tables have turned with the last two matches both won by Sakkari at the WTA Finals in 2021 and 2022, but the Greek player is going to have to up her level significantly in this Indian Wells Semi Final to make it three in a row against one of the best players in the world.

The Maria Sakkari win over Aryna Sabalenka at the WTA Finals at the end of last season came with a dominant performance and that will have given her a lot of confidence, but things have changed for the World Number 2 in the time that has passed between that last match and this one.

Winning the Australian Open will have given Aryna Sabalenka a whole boatload of belief in her tennis and she has backed that up with five wins from six matches played. Losing in the Dubai Quarter Final will have stung, but Sabalenka has earned some revenge for the defeat to Barbora Krejcikova by seeing her off in this tournament where her numbers have been hugely impressive.

The first serve has proven to be a major weapon for the winner of the first Grand Slam of 2023 and the conditions in Indian Wells have just allowed Sabalenka to really tee off when it comes to the return.

The pressure will be on Maria Sakkari to try and up her first serve percentage which stands at 54% for the tournament- allowing Sabalenka to see too many second serves could be a problem for Sakkari who has won 39% of points played behind her second serve this week. It has been a problem for Maria Sakkari who has dropped serve fifteen times in four wins and the World Number 7 has spent a considerable amount of time longer on the court compared to her Semi Final opponent.

Maria Sakkari has to have confidence from winning the last two meetings with Aryna Sabalenka, but the latter looks to be in a different frame of mind these days.

I do think Sakkari will pose problems and has the game to frustrate the higher Ranked opponent, but Aryna Sabalenka has been serving a little better than Maria Sakkari this week and I think she will see a few more second serves to earn the breaks of serve to cover this line on the way to the first Masters Final of the 2023 season.

A few thoughts on the other Semi Final- Elena Rybakina has gotten the better of the World Number 1 Iga Swiatek in the two occasions they have met since the end of the last calendar year and that includes a pretty comfortable win at the Australian Open.

However, the conditions in Indian Wells are much slower and Swiatek has been in imperious form since the conclusion of the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.

I think the World Number 1 has really enjoyed playing here and her numbers are very good, but covering this line against a server of the quality of Elena Rybakina will not be easy.

In saying that, I am not sure I could back Rybakina either having had a pretty good, but not a great week to reach the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 21-13, + 9.97 Units (69 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 9th)

I can't really complain about the start made from this tournament after the First Round got underway in Indian Wells on Wednesday.

Wins for two selections against the handicap, plus the upset from Jason Kubler, worked the Picks into a profitable start from the tournament, although I was disappointed to see Katie Swan fail to push her way into a third set in her eventual straight sets loss.

The British player led 5-3 and missed set points while serving before failing to capitalise at 5-4, 0-40 in the next game and eventually lost four games in a row to be dumped out of the event.

However, I have to be happy with the start even if the sweep of the selections was missed.

On Thursday there is a much busier schedule set as a large majority of the First Round matches are completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played on site. That does mean the biggest names of the sport, sans Novak Djokovic, are all going to get underway at the first Masters event of 2023 over the weekend and there are some big Ranking points up for grabs.

With one more hard court Masters event scheduled for the end of the month, we are fast approaching the clay court season in Europe as the build towards the French Open will begin in April. Hopefully we will see Rafael Nadal back and ready to defend his crown and Novak Djokovic will be set to play in all of the events in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season too.

For now the concentration of the majority of the Tour will be putting together two solid hard court tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and my focus is on the Tennis at those events as well.

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Brandon Holt: I actually considered Thanasi Kokkinakis as potentially the better of the two Australian players when he broke through onto the Tour with Nick Kyrgios, but injuries have been a major factor in his career.

He has looked healthier to open 2023 and has a title win at Challenger level, while reaching the Semi Final of an ATP 250 tournament ahead of the Australian Open. The Number 94 World Ranking is a reflection of the lack of tennis played, not Kokkinakis' ability, and winning a couple of Qualifiers makes him dangerous.

I am not surprised he is favoured to beat Wild Card Brandon Holt who is still struggling nearer the 200 World Ranking mark rather than the top 100. The young American is still learning his trade on the Tour and he has had a couple of solid runs at the last two Grand Slam events, but Holt has not been able to back up the performance at the Australian Open and has been beaten relatively early at all of his recent events.

This is a big step up for Brandon Holt considering only two of his recent losses have been against players Ranked inside the top 100 and he is just 2-6 in those matches on the hard courts over the last year.

He is going to need to rely on serving very well if he is going to earn the upset in the First Round, because I am not sure how much joy Brandon Holt will have against the Thanasi Kokkinakis serve. That builds pressure on Holt and he has held 77% of his service games against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last year, a number that will be challenged by Kokkinakis who has broken in almost 30% of his return games on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing an opponent Ranked outside the top 100.

The Australian is 11-1 in those matches too and he would have covered this handicap mark in nine of the ten wins that did not end in a retirement. Brandon Holt will receive plenty of support from the crowd, but Thanasi Kokkinakis has the tennis to break down his opponent and he can move through to the Second Round with some solid Ranking points secured.

Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: The first thing I want to say here is that this is a big spread for Andy Murray to cover considering where his tennis has been since returning full time to the Tour. There have been flashes of the old Murray, and that player would have been confident of covering this mark, but the new Andy Murray is prone to chucking in a poor run of games and so has to fight much harder to win his matches.

However, the lower Ranking has meant he has run into much tougher opponents early in tournaments and so has not been able to build into events as he has liked. Reaching the Final in Doha last month is a boost and Andy Murray is climbing back towards the top 50 with his goal of being Seeded at Grand Slam events going forward certainly achievable.

He has also not had the best record at Indian Wells, even at his best, where the ball flies and defending on this hard court is that much tougher than in other events around the world.

In saying all that, I do think Andy Murray can get the better of Tomas Martin Etcheverry who has been playing clay court tennis over the last month in the Golden Swing in South America. He did reach the Final of the last of those in Santiago and was rewarded with his career best World Ranking earlier this week, although the hard courts are still unfamiliar terrain to the Argentine.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry does hold a winning record on the hard courts in his career, but he is just 5-6 on the surface over the last twelve months and three of those wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100. This is only the seventh ever match against a top 100 Ranked on the hard courts and I do think Andy Murray should be better prepared even if he had to withdraw from the big event in Dubai following his Doha exploits.

Andy Murray might only have a 14-12 record on the hard courts over the last year, but that becomes 9-2 when only looking at matches against players Ranked outside the top 50, which backs up the point about the early, tough draws he has been handed. In those eleven matches, Andy Murray has held 80% of his service games and broken in 27% of return games and these are numbers that suggest he holds a big edge over his younger opponent.

We have seen Etcheverry break in just shy of 16% of return games played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last year and that is something to note, even from a small sample of matches. It feels like Tomas Martin Etcheverry will have to serve very big to have a chance in this one, although I am a touch concerned that Andy Murray has not had a very good time of covering a line like this one, even in the nine wins against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the surface over the last year.

However, I think the move from clay to the hard courts in Indian Wells works against Tomas Martin Etcheverry and I will take any odds against quotes for Murray to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Gregoire Barrere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 3-1, + 2.85 Units (7 Units Staked, + 40.71% Yield)