Indian Wells Tennis Day 2 Picks 2026 (Thursday 5th March)

There have been some mixed reviews about how the Indian Wells surface has been playing through the opening few days at the first of two big Masters 1000 events to be played this month.

It certainly warrants something of a watching brief with some stating it is perhaps faster than usual, while others continue to describe Indian Wells as a slow hard court.

The ball change could be having an early impact too, but it is something to keep an eye upon as the First Round is completed on Thursday.

One selection was made on Wednesday and, unfortunately, that did not return as hoped, but there are two ATP selections for the completion of the First Round, which can be read below.

Terence Atmane v Grigor Dimitrov: There will be a hope that every tournament that Grigor Dimitrov plays will get him closer to the form he was displaying before his injury at Wimbledon last year. He was right on course to beat eventual Champion Jannik Sinner in that Fourth Round match at the third Grand Slam of the 2025 season, but the Bulgarian has not had any real success since returning to the Tour.

Grigor Dimitrov won a match at the Paris Masters at the end of 2025 before having to withdraw from the tournament.

Another return was made earlier this year in Brisbane in the preparation for the Australian Open and Grigor Dimitrov comfortably got the better of fellow veteran Pablo Carreno Busta.

However, that has been the highlight for the World Number 42 who has lost his next four matches with opening Round defeats at the Australian Open followed by more of the same in Dallas and Acapulco. Grigor Dimitrov has struggled massively on the return of serve with just 28% of points won when facing serve, and that has put a lot of pressure on his own serve.

The next month could see Dimitrov take a big slip in the World Rankings as he defends a Fourth Round run in Indian Wells and then a Semi Final run from the Miami Masters. If he can get healthy, there will be plenty of Ranking Points to pick up after Wimbledon, but the draws get tougher and having to Qualify for events will just add to the pressure around the former World Number 3.

The 34 year old faces an opponent who is ten years his junior and Terence Atmane will be confident having beaten Grigor Dimitrov last week on the hard courts of Acapulco.

He dominated that match with 74% of service points won and facing just a couple of Break Points, while Atmane won 41% of points played on the Grigor Dimitrov serve and broke serve three times.

Terence Atmane is playing at a career high World Ranking after reaching the Quarter Final in Acapulco, but he will know there is still room for improvement on the hard courts.

Despite that, he has been playing well enough to believe he can frank the win over Grigor Dimitrov having been much more effective on the return of serve since heading over to North and Central America following his trip Down Under. That can be very important in the conditions at the Masters event in Indian Wells and the Frenchman looks a decent underdog to get behind.

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 games v Francisco Comesana: A disappointing run in January and the early loss at the Australian Open may have dented some confidence, but much of that should be restored by Sebastian Korda after recent efforts.

He has clearly enjoyed being back in North America and Sebastian Korda returned by reaching the Final of a Challenger event held in San Diego.

Backing that up are his efforts in Dallas and Delray Beach having reached the Quarter Final of the former and winning the title at the latter and Korda is now well rested.

Facing an opponent who is more comfortable on the clay courts can be dangerous on what have usually been slower hard courts in Indian Wells, but Sebastian Korda is right to be set as a strong favourite when facing Francisco Comesana.

It is no surprise that Francisco Comesana took in clay court tournaments after the Australian Open, but he has not exactly been racking up the wins in those. Earlier this year through to the first Grand Slam of the season, Comesana finished with a 2-3 record on the hard courts and he certainly served well enough to offer some resistance in this First Round match, even if conditions tend to favour the returner.

His opponent has also been serving really well on the surface, but Sebastian Korda has broken in 21% of return games compared with Francisco Comesana's 11% mark and that is likely going to be a factor in the outcome of this match.

This is a big spread and can be awkward,  but Sebastian Korda looks worthy of backing in what is going to be a slow start to the tournament for the Tennis Picks.

MY PICKS: Terence Atmane @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Sebastian Korda - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th March)

The WTA Tour have had a couple of 1000 events played, but this is the first of those on the ATP Tour when both come together at Indian Wells.

Both Tours will move together onto Miami at the end of this event with March dominated by the two big Masters tournaments ahead of the start of the clay court season.

The top Seeds will not get underway until the Second Round later in the week, but the opening days are very busy with a host of First Round matches to be completed.

It has been a poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks but much of that is still down to the really poor Australian Open production.

Last week was looking better, but when both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas failed to serve out matches, and ultimately covers, and Andrey Rublev was denied a complete win over Sebastian Korda due to a retirement, it did prevent a second winning week to be recorded.

Things could always be a lot worse, but they should have been a lot better from that week and should have backed up the previous week which had ended with a profitable week.

Let's hope the Indian Wells Masters event proves to be one with a little more fortune attached to the selections that will be made over the next ten days.

Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Goffin: There was a time that a match between these two players would have been played in the Quarter Final of big Masters events, but both Andy Murray and David Goffin are still plugging away on the Tour.

One has spoken about potentially retiring at the end of the summer, while the other has had to battle through a couple of Qualifiers to even earn a spot in the main draw at the Indian Wells Masters.

This does cloud some of the potential outcome of the match- Andy Murray has been struggling to find wins, even if performances have not been as poor as the results, while David Goffin has begun to spend a lot of time playing matches against players outside of the top 100.

To underline the point, over the last twelve months through injury and a loss of form, David Goffin has played just eight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. The Belgian former World Number 7 has lost seven of those eight matches, although three of those losses in 2024 have been against players Ranked high enough to be Seeded in Grand Slam events.

After winning two Qualifiers, David Goffin has to be feeling pretty happy with the conditions and he will certainly feel he can finally win a set, never mind the match, against Andy Murray.

The head to head is perhaps not surprising- Andy Murray's style looks to be everything David Goffin can do, but only a little bit better as his former Grand Slam winning and World Number 1 form would underline.

There is little doubt that Andy Murray is not the player he once was and everything is much harder for him these days than when at his peak. The serve has never been the biggest weapon, but Murray has not returned as well as he would have expected from himself, although this is a match in which he can get his teeth into those games a little more.

David Goffin has only held 67% of his service games played in four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024, and that number is only at 71% against those opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This gives Andy Murray a chance and there could be a number of breaks of serve during this contest, although the feeling is that this is a match that the British player can still win.

Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Juncheng Shang: This is more to do with the form that Jordan Thompson has displayed over the last month and that gives him the edge over Juncheng Shang, despite the fact the latter has come through a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to become accustomed to the conditions.

Last year Jordan Thompson did reach the Third Round at Indian Wells and he has been playing with a lot of confidence through the first two months of the season.

Winning a title in Los Cabos, which includes victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, has to give the Australian plenty of belief, and he was a deserved winner when last going up against Juncheng Shang to level their personal head to head.

You have to credit the lefty for reaching the Hong Kong Semi Final and taking a set from Andrey Rublev, but he will have to serve well to contain Jordan Thompson.

The latter is not easy to trust to maintain the current levels having reached his career high World Ranking at the end of February, but Jordan Thompson is playing well enough to move through to the Second Round behind a solid victory.

Petra Martic - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It is never going to be easy to return from a long absence from the Tour and especially for those who are returning as mothers.

That has already proven to be the case for Angelique Kerber and it may take a bit of time to really find her timing and ability to string together wins.

It looks like a tough First Round match against veteran Petra Martic, who has been in decent if unspectacular form to open 2024. However, she has been competing and putting some wins together and that is more than what can be said for Angelique Kerber who is now Ranked outside the top 600.

Things are perhaps tougher for someone like Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki than they perhaps will be for Naomi Osaka because of the style of tennis- both the former players are largely seen as counter punchers, but finding that timing and the stamina to fight through the long rallies time after time will take a bit of getting used to again.

There have been a couple of competitive matches for Kerber on her return this year, but a lot of matches have got away from her too.

Petra Martic has lost matches to Alja Tomljanovic and Naomi Osaka, two returning players, already in 2024 and that makes it tougher to trust her. However, Angelique Kerber has been having some issues with her serve, which has added to the pressure on the return and ultimately that may show up in this First Round match.

Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 games v Robin Montgomery: Both of these players have com through the Qualifiers, but it is Hailey Baptiste who can progress through to the Second Round.

She has gotten the better of Robin Montgomery in both previous matches, including in a three setter this year, and looks to be playing well against those players she should beat.

Robin Montgomery will be competitive, but has to get more out of the return against the first serve to turn things around, especially as Hailey Baptiste has been able to attack both the first and second serve returns.

Two Qualifiers should be confident within the conditions at Indian Wells, but it is Hailey Baptiste getting closer to cracking the top 100 and she can move a step towards that with a victory in what may end up being a competitive three set match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 5th)

I won't deny that it has been another difficult week with some of the selections being bad ones, but some being afflicted by bad luck, although they add together to give us the same result either way.

At least Thursday proved to be a little better and gives me something to build upon going through the weekend and into the next set of tournaments that are going to begin on Monday. I will add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires Quarter Finals to this thread on Friday once the markets are out, but you can read my analysis of a couple of the selections below.

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: 2021 has started really well for Jessica Pegula and she is beginning to make a splash on the WTA Tour. The numbers last season were not bad at all, but this year there feels like another step in her development has been taken and her run through to the Semi Final in Doha has to be respected.

It comes after a good showing in Australia and Jessica Pegula came through the Qualifiers here despite the improvement in the World Ranking meaning she should be able to earn direct entry into these events going forward. A new career best Ranking is around the corner, but the American would love to earn that by winning the title here.

The layers are struggling to separate Pegula and Petra Kvitova and that has to be down to the manner in which the former has cruised through the draw. It may also take into account the tough Quarter Final Petra Kvitova had to get through when seeing off Anett Kontaveit in three sets and she is going to have to serve a lot better if she is going to win this match.

Petra Kvitova is very dangerous because she seems to have her eye in as far as the return of serve goes and I expect her to challenge Jessica Pegula much more than Karolina Pliskova was able to do in the Quarter Final. The last two opponents have not really been able to get after the Pegula serve as they would have liked, but it hasn't been the perfect weapon for the slight underdog in this match and I do think Petra Kvitova will edge the match.

They played a really close match at the US Open last September and the straight sets win for Petra Kvitova doesn't tell the whole story. The inches went her way to secure the win, but I think the Czech player will have enough from the return to edge this one too.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Spending a little over two hours on court won't be a major problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he won his Second Round match to move into Friday's Quarter Final. This looks another big hitting match in front of the Number 2 Seed in Rotterdam who is also the favourite to win the tournament now that Daniil Medvedev has exited the event.

He will need to do plenty of big hitting of his own if Tsitsipas is going to hold off Karen Khachanov who has won both his matches here relatively comfortably. The victory over Stan Wawrinka will have given Khachanov huge confidence, and he has yet to drop serve in the week on an indoor hard court that should suit his game.

Serving as well as he has seems to have opened up the return game and Karen Khachanov has been on his best form on that side of his game. However, you do have to wonder how much success he will have against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won 71% of his service points played in Rotterdam and held 89% of his service games played.

There is a slight concern that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been broken three times in the two wins so far this week, while he has not been returning as well his opponent, but he has enjoyed the head to head with Karen Khachanov.

Both players are capable of strong serving, but in the two wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Karen Khachanov there has been a significant edge to the Greek player when it comes to the return of serve. Their last meeting in October 2018 was a close one that barely went in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think he is the slightly better player at this stage of their career and I think that will show up here.

I expect both players to run through some of their service games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may find the inspiration to turn a set in his favour and I think he will work his way through to the Semi Final with a solid win.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-15, - 5.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 9.89% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (March 5-7)

We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.

Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.

The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.


This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.

Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.

They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.

It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.

While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.

Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.

At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.

In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.

My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.

You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.

However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.

They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.

This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.

Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.

It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.

The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.

I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.


Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.

There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.

That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.

Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.

However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.

It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.

Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.

I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.


Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.

That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.

Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.

That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.

The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.

Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.

10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.

The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.


Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.

That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.

It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.

The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.

It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.

Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.

Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.


Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.

Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.

In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.

Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.

In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.


Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.

In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.

For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.

It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.

With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.

Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.

I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.

You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.


Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.

For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.

It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.

Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.

Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.

They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.

With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 1-5)

In a couple of years we could be just about coming out of a Winter Break if the Premier League proposals are improved, but for now all of the teams in the top flight in England will be getting ready for another important round of fixtures.

I've started this thread on a Thursday to cover the Arsenal vs Manchester City fixture which is being made up from the weekend when the two teams met in the League Cup Final.

Arsenal would have seen the first silverware of the season slip away on Sunday and also their chances of a top four finish look as bleak as the weather to say the least.

The same could potentially be said for Chelsea who blew a 0-1 lead at Manchester United last weekend and have to revisit Manchester to take on the runaway leaders on Sunday. With the teams above them all having what look like winnable League games, Chelsea could find themselves 5 points off the top four with nine games remaining at the end of the weekend.

Antonio Conte is back under pressure and Chelsea have a big month ahead which includes hosting Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League as well as a trip to Barcelona after this game at Manchester City. Those three games may just determine how this season is going to end for Conte and Chelsea before what looks an inevitable parting in the summer.

The likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United have to take advantage of Chelsea's tough fixture this weekend. It is very important to the latter two teams who meet at Old Trafford next Saturday as the race for the Champions League places begins to heat up.

This weekend is also a big one at the bottom of the table with Southampton hosting Stoke City the biggest game for those teams threatened with relegation. It really feels like the losing team could spiral out of the Division in that fixture which only increases the importance of the three points on offer on another big weekend in England.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: The worst thing that could happen to Arsene Wenger and Arsenal is conceding early in this Premier League game on Thursday as they try and get the fans back behind them after a poor showing in the League Cup Final.

It may have been a different story if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had not missed what looked a big opportunity in the first ten minutes of the Cup Final, but there was not a lot of belief in the Arsenal ranks once they went 2-0 down.

Bouncing back against Manchester City won't be easy with Pep Guardiola unlikely to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven. I can imagine some defensive changes are made to make sure Vincent Kompany is fit for the Chelsea game on Sunday, while the likes of Bernado Silva, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus could also freshen attacking areas, but Manchester City will bring a strong squad to town.

Their recent away performances have not been as strong as Guardiola may have liked and that does make Manchester City look short odds to win here at the Emirates Stadium. As poor as Arsenal were on Sunday, I do expect a reaction at home where they have a strong record this season and I would be stunned if they waved the white flag as quickly at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal certainly can cause problems for Manchester City at the back, but the bigger concern for the fans will be how poor Arsenal have looked defensively. It would be a huge surprise if they are able to contain Manchester City and I am going back to the same market which only just let me down on Sunday.

Namely I expect to see four or more goals shared out.

Neither defence is watertight and Arsenal games at the Emirates Stadium against the teams above them have produced fireworks so far this season. The League games against Manchester United (1-3), Liverpool (3-3) and Chelsea (2-2) have all produced four or more goals and Arsenal showed considerable fight in all of those games despite being behind in all of those.

I expect a little more from Arsenal going forward at home, while Manchester City will play the same way and look to cause panic in the backline for the home team. As long as Arsenal don't give up in the same manner they did at Wembley Stadium, chances should come through the ninety minutes and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.


Burnley v Everton Pick: This may be the opening live Premier League game of the weekend but everything is pointing to a tight encounter with few goals scored.

There are times when that expectation can be blown away by an early goal which will produce an entertaining game, but Burnley and Everton will both focus on being tight and tough to beat. With Sean Dyche and Sam Allardyce having a week to organise the defences in the manner they would like, it could be difficult for the creative players to really show off their talents and goals may come at a premium.

Burnley home games have simply not featured a lot of goals this season with just twenty-one scored here in 14 Premier League games. Late goals have seen the last couple end 1-1 and that is the only scoreline that really worries me when it comes to my pick from this fixture.

Backing under 1.5 goals looks to be the call with only late goals preventing that happening in the last 3 Burnley home games. The team continue to be tough to break down and more than half of their 14 Premier League home games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out.

Everton have been poorer defensively away from home which is a concern, while they have some talented players in the attacking areas that could give Burnley problems. However the defeat last weekend at Watford showed an Everton team more focused on getting things right defensively which affected their attacking intent and I am going to have a small interest in one or fewer goals scored here.

Some may want to keep the 1-1 score on their side, which is a real player having occurred in 3 of the last 4 Burnley games, but I will look for both teams to be tight enough to prevent a huge outlay of goals in this one.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: There is still something for Leicester City to aim for from a strong finish in the Premier League but they were lacking some ideas in the 1-1 home draw with Stoke City last weekend. The Foxes improved once they equalised, but the focus has to be on winning the FA Cup now they have reached the Quarter Final Round.

However there is every chance 7th place in the Premier League will offer Leicester City the best chance for a return to European Football next season and they should be able to give Bournemouth a few problems in this one.

I don't doubt Bournemouth can have their successes too if Leicester City are as flat as they were last weekend. Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals in their recent games although defensively there remain some problems which comes with the style of play Eddie Howe wishes to employ.

Recent Leicester City home games have not featured as many goals as you may think, but I think they can get one more than last weekend when they host Bournemouth this weekend. The away side are capable of punishing Leicester City if they defend as they did against Stoke City, but I also expect more from the home team and will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Southampton v Stoke City Pick: A true relegation six pointer looks to be set to be played at St Mary's on Saturday when Southampton host Stoke City and there is a sense that the winning team can use this as a springboard to avoid relegation while the losing team would be in huge trouble.

That means tension in the air and that could restrict the way both Southampton and Stoke City are able to express themselves.

Both teams have had some positive results of late, but the problem has been turning some of those into wins. Stoke City may be particularly concerned having missed a penalty for a home win over Brighton, and also leading at both Bournemouth and Leicester City without picking up the three points.

However they have looked a little more solid under Paul Lambert's guidance and only a couple of mistakes have let them down. They are facing a Southampton team who have not scored more than once at home in any of their last 7 Premier League games going back to November and Stoke City may feel they can restrict the home team which could lead to an upset here.

Southampton look very short for a team who have not won a League game at home since the 4-1 win over Everton in November, especially as they failed to beat Huddersfield Town and Brighton in that run. Stoke City are a similar kind of team who will look to frustrate the home team and then look for their classy players like Xherdan Shaqiri to create something.

The lack of wins for Southampton makes it hard to think they can win this fixture comfortably and backing Stoke City on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in a narrow loss looks the call. Stoke City have not played well away from home for much of the season, but they have led in their last 2 away League games and getting in front will likely make it very tough for Southampton to beat them.

The home team haven't had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games at St Mary's so I will take Stoke City with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town Pick: Finishing in the top four and having a place back in the Champions League is very important for Tottenham Hotspur who are set to move into New White Hart Lane in August.

The late goal at Crystal Palace last weekend has helped Tottenham Hotspur move into the top four and they have a chance to put 5 points between themselves and 5th placed Chelsea who travel to Manchester City on Sunday.

Hosting Huddersfield Town at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have won 6 in a row in all competitions should be the kind of fixture Spurs are able to win comfortably enough.

The only doubt I really have is that Tottenham Hotspur play the Second Leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie against Juventus during the week with that tie finely balanced at 2-2 after the First Leg in Turin. The fans will be distracted by looking ahead to a big Champions League night so the key for Mauricio Pochettino is making sure his players are not overlooking a Huddersfield Town team who have won back to back Premier League games.

If they are Huddersfield Town can be organised enough to cause some problems, although they have not been capable of really shutting down the very best teams in the Premier League. There is no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur are one of those and their big names were rested in the win over Rochdale and I do like the home team to produce a comfortable win on the day.

Huddersfield Town did win at The Hawthorns last weekend, but they had been struggling away from home in the Premier League prior to that. Conceding goals has been an issue for Huddersfield Town and Tottenham Hotspur have been scoring plenty of goals at Wembley Stadium in recent months.

The Terriers have played 8 Premier League games against the top six clubs this season so far and they have conceded at least twice in 7 of those. They have lost 7 of those 8 games and 6 of those losses have come by two or more goals with 4 of those coming by three or more margins.

I would anticipate Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by at least a two goal margin on Saturday, but I am going to back them on the Asian Handicap to perhaps go one better. At worst I would expect the stake to be returned, but Liverpool and Arsenal have beaten Huddersfield Town by three or more goals in home games this season and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to do the same.

That would be ideal preparation for the Champions League Second Leg against Juventus on Wednesday.


Watford v West Brom Pick: This could be it as far as West Brom's future as a Premier League club is concerned as well as Alan Pardew's short time managing at The Hawthorns.

Pardew was reportedly criticised by Chris Brunt for the poor tactics employed in the 1-2 defeat to Huddersfield Town last weekend which has put West Brom in a really deep hole as far as survival is concerned. The fans were also very unhappy with the performance and the board have seemingly given Pardew one game to prove that he can turn things around in the final 10 Premier League games.

It is a big ask for West Brom even if they change manager and they head to Vicarage Road where Watford have won back to back League games. The home team have battled through a deep injury list which added Gerard Deulofeu to it last weekend, but Watford have looked much more settled with Javi Gracia than they were under Marco Silva during his final days in charge.

However this has to be the kind of fixture that Alan Pardew would have targeted for West Brom to try and get out of trouble. The same could be said last weekend against Huddersfield Town at home, but defensively there are too many goals being conceded by West Brom.

The Baggies have created some big chances of their own though and I think they will have chances in this one too. Even though Watford earned a clean sheet last weekend, they have been defensively poor at times and games at Vicarage Road have seen plenty of goals shared out prior to the 1-0 win over Everton.

I expect both teams will have their chances to score in this fixture, and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price. West Brom games have involved plenty of goals of late and they can't sit back in this one, while Watford have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at home prior to last weekend.

Earlier this season these teams shared out four goals, but I will simply look for at least three to be scored in this one.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: A cold snap has hit the United Kingdom over the last few days, but Liverpool and Newcastle United can combine to warm up the fans with an entertaining game of football on Saturday afternoon.

Games at Anfield have certainly not been short of goals in recent weeks, but Rafa Benitez will try and set Newcastle United up to frustrate his former club. That looks a long shot when you see how Newcastle United have defended away from home and instead the better option may be to try and get up further up the pitch and try and threaten Liverpool.

That has been made tougher with the likes of Jonjo Shelvey, Dwight Gayle and Islam Slimani not expected to be involved this weekend. However Newcastle United will still believe they have enough to at least cause problems for a Liverpool team who have not had a home clean sheet in their last 6 at Anfield in all competitions.

On the other hand, Liverpool have been very good in the final third in recent weeks which has seen the team score at least twice in their last 7 at Anfield. They will look to get Newcastle United on the back foot very early in this one and then look to counter their visitors when they do take some risks, and Liverpool will note how effective the other top clubs have been against Newcastle United at home.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all scored at least three times in home wins over Newcastle United this season, although The Magpies have scored in all 3 of those League games too. They could play a part in this one, but ultimately it would be a surprise if Liverpool don't win the game considering the kind of form they have been producing.

Backing at least four goals looks to be the play at odds against though and it is only a slightly shorter price than backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game with that many goals shared out. It covers a high-scoring draw like Tottenham Hotspur earned at Anfield recently, while West Brom won 2-3 here in the FA Cup at the end of January which has to be respected.

Of course I do give a strong lean towards a Liverpool win, but they could concede on the way to help reach the four goal mark. All 3 Newcastle United away Premier League games at teams in the current top five have ended with at least four goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome at odds against.


Brighton v Arsenal Pick: Arsene Wenger looked completely dejected in his post-match interview after watching his Arsenal team being outclassed by Manchester City for the second time in the space of a few days.

Questions have been raised about the future of Wenger again and the players have to pick themselves up from their confidence taking a battering worse than the United Kingdom has been from the 'Beast from the East'.

A poor away record in the Premier League doesn't inspire a lot of belief in Arsenal doing that this weekend even though they travel to the south coast to take on a Brighton team fighting relegation. However Brighton have picked up their form of late and 1 loss from their last 8 games in all competitions at the Amex Stadium makes them dangerous.

Brighton have begun to find goals from their play and have recorded 4 wins from their last 5 games at the Amex Stadium. They have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions while Brighton have beaten West Ham United 3-1 and Swansea City 4-1 in their last couple of Premier League games here and will feel they can pose questions for an Arsenal backline which is far from being watertight.

Those defensive issues were highlighted in Arsenal's defeats at Bournemouth and Swansea City in the Premier League since the turn of the calendar year. With the confidence Brighton have been playing with, they will certainly feel they can create chances against Arsenal, although I also expect a lot better from Arsenal when they go forward.

With the attacking players Arsenal can call upon, they will be able to get at a Brighton defence which has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 at home in all competitions. The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have all visited the Amex Stadium and scored at least twice and I do think Arsenal will have their chances in this one too.

Picking a winner isn't easy when you consider the form of the two teams- I would have favoured Brighton to avoid defeat if they had a better record against the top six clubs this season, but they concede too many goals in those games. On the other hand Arsenal have struggled away from home all season and instead I am backing at least three goals to be shared out.

That has happened in the last 6 Brighton home games in all competitions, while 5 of Arsenal's last 8 away games have also seen that number reached. Neither defence will be confident of keeping a clean sheet and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The Premier League title might be heading to Manchester City without too much fuss in the weeks ahead, but the other top clubs will be interested spectators as the race for the top four heats up.

I have little doubt that the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for a favour from the runaway League leaders and Manchester City are playing well enough to think they can provide that.

The only concern for Manchester City has to be the fact they have played two games since Chelsea finished up at Old Trafford last Sunday, but Pep Guardiola did get to see his team coast through the second half of their win at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. That should mean fatigue is not an issue for a team who have won 12 in a row at home in all competitions and their last 13 Premier League games here.

Chelsea could play a part with the performances they have produced against Barcelona and Manchester United, but failing to win games they led is a blow to the confidence. Worse still is losing at Old Trafford last weekend which has put their top four ambitions in a difficult spot especially if Chelsea fail to get something here.

It is hard to see them turning around form which has seen Chelsea lose their last 3 away games in all competitions, even though they led in a couple of those. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro capable of causing problems for their potentially tired hosts, Chelsea can play a part in this one but ultimately their away form has been a concern and I think Manchester City will win this one.

Defensively Chelsea will have to be a lot better than they have been in recent away games if they are going to avoid the loss, but I do think they can score here too.

The last 3 Chelsea away games have all ended in losses despite scoring though and I will back Manchester City to win a game featuring three or more goals on Sunday.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: There was evidence of Roy Hodgson's frustration in the 0-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the television cameras picking up the former England manager banging his head against his seat after the late goal conceded by his Crystal Palace team.

Injuries have really hurt the Hodgson options and it comes at a time of the season when Crystal Palace have some big games coming thick and fast. Even a full strength Crystal Palace team would be an underdog in those games, but one hit with the long injury list like this one will really have a hard time.

One thing Hodgson will insist upon is hard work and defensive discipline and that almost worked in their narrow defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. He will be looking to frustrate a Manchester United team who have lost back to back away Premier League games at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United without scoring, while goals have generally been something of an issue for Jose Mourinho's men having failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions.

However Manchester United should come into this Monday night kick off with some confidence after coming from behind to beat Chelsea last Sunday. Going behind and winning games is not something that has been that common for Manchester United in recent years, but doing so will have given the players a boost ahead of another big month.

This is a tough test to back that up with Crystal Palace being a tough team to play at Selhurst Park, even with the injuries in the squad. The absence of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Crystal Palace and games without him have seen the team struggle to pose a consistent goal threat.

That may be a problem on Monday evening too and I think Manchester United will be able to create the chances that Tottenham Hotspur did here. A better day from Harry Kane would have led to a comfortable win for Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the big opportunities that came his way, and I think Manchester United will be able to find a goal or two here.

Ultimately they will look to keep Crystal Palace from building too much without Zaha and potentially Yohan Cabaye. That takes away some real creativity from the Crystal Palace team and Manchester United can win this one with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Everton Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Newcastle United Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (March 4-6)

The last two months of the football picks has been two of the most brutal months I have had in the last five seasons.

Simple as that.

Missed penalties, late goals and poor decisions from the officials have conspired to go against me so many times in those two months that it really has felt incredible.

The missed penalties have been stunning to be honest- I didn't realise that so many are missed so often, but invariably it would be in games where I had picked goals or backed a team to win by a couple of goals.

Sevilla were at it last week against Leicester City in a game they could have won by five or six, but ultimately produced a unit loss because they 'only' won by one goal. That was added to by a Sheffield Wednesday missed penalty in the 52nd minute of their game at Leeds United which would have made it 1-1 as I looked for three goals, and can be added to a number of teams who have done the same.

Huddersfield Town also missed an early penalty in their win over Reading in another game where I was expecting goals and those three games are just from the last week!

It has actually got me in the mindset that I am expecting players to miss their penalties more than I am expecting them to score and that can't be a common occurrence going forward.

I also have had Fiorentina become the latest team to NOT win a game they were leading 2-0 to join the likes of Derby County and others over the last month.

It's been frustrating to say the least and I am striving to make sure the next three months are much better than the last three have been. The luck has to change, but I won't be changing my plan and just hope it is producing the results that are expected going forward.


It hasn't all been bad though- Manchester United did win the Cup last week.

Manchester United v Bournemouth Pick: The week off since winning the English Football League Cup has to have been music to the Manchester United players' ears as they have had a really busy February behind them. Successes in the Cup competitions has meant Manchester United are basically playing twice a week and the coming three months are going to be very busy if Manchester United keep winning their games.

Jose Mourinho won't want the momentum to end as Manchester United chase top four spots in the Premier League as well as more silverware and Bournemouth are the next challenge in front of them. Manchester United might not have been scoring lots of goals in the Premier League, but they might be facing the right opponent this weekend to create chances and score goals.

Bournemouth have been really struggling defensively and they continue to concede goals at an alarming rate which has left them dropping towards the bottom three. Eddie Howe won't sacrifice his principles, but that means Bournemouth continue to allow opponents to play their football and someone has been due a heavy defeat at Old Trafford in the Premier League.

Manchester United have scored three times in their last couple of matches against Bournemouth and I think they match that number here. With the team defending fairly well and a returning Phil Jones to give Mourinho more options in the back, I think Manchester United will have too much for their visitors.

I will back the home team to win this game by a couple of goals and set them up for a big March as Manchester United then set the Premier League aside for two weeks while they concentrate on FA Cup and Europa League commitments.


Leicester City v Hull City Pick: There are going to be plenty of fans upset at the desire the Leicester City players showed in their 3-1 win over Liverpool with reports that the players effectively stabbed Claudio Ranieri in the back. That issue is not going to go away quietly, but Leicester City were well backed by the home support on Monday night and have to feel they will be backed again in this big 'relegation six pointer'.

No one should doubt that this is a huge game when it comes to determining the teams that will be relegated to the Championship. Both Leicester City and Hull City are firmly in a relegation battle, but the winner can take a huge confidence boost this weekend.

Being at home should give Leicester City the edge, especially in light of the win over Liverpool, but they are facing a Hull City team who have shown improved performances. You can't read too much into the defeats on their travels under Marco Silva as those have come against the best teams in the Premier League, but the lack of goals has to be a concern.

They have found a way around that at home, but it has been much more difficult on their travels and it is hard to ignore the single goal in 5 away games under Silva. Again that has to be set along with the fact they have played some top teams in that time and I do think Hull City can play a part against a Leicester City defence that has struggled.

The home team have had 1 clean sheet in their last 9 home games in the Premier League and that includes facing struggling teams like Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough in that time. However I do think Leicester City might have turned a corner now they have gone back to basics and they might just have enough to sneak the three points.

I can't really back Leicester City at odds on to win this match after one good performance, but I can see both teams having their chances in this one. Backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against could pay out in this one as both teams look for a morale boosting win.


Stoke City v Middlesbrough Pick: A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park was a huge blow for Middlesbrough last weekend and being back out on their travels is going to be difficult for a team that has struggled for goals all season. Recent weeks have seen them suffer more losses than they were earlier in the campaign and it is going to be a big ask for Middlesbrough to perform against a Stoke City team who are looking to bounce back from a poor result of their own.

Last weekend a well rested Stoke City team were blitzed by Tottenham Hotspur in the first half and you have to think Mark Hughes has been punishing his players in training all week. The side have only lost back to back League games once since September and Stoke City will feel they can bounce back in this one.

There is some quality in the Stoke City team that can create chances in the final third and they will feel they can break down a Middlesbrough team who have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 8 away Premier League games.

Stoke City have had 4 clean sheets in their last 7 home games in the Premier League and another one here should be enough to secure the three points. I think the home team will definitely have a better reaction than Middlesbrough because Stoke City have had more positive results of late which they can fall back upon.

On the other hand, Middlesbrough have slipped down the Premier League table as they have struggled to find results and backing The Potters at odds against looks a decent enough price this weekend.


Swansea City v Burnley Pick: This certainly feels like a more important game for Swansea City than it does for Burnley when you think of their positions in the Premier League table, but Sean Dyche won't be letting anyone in the Burnley squad begin to coast.

Burnley have to be feeling confident after earning an important point at Hull City last weekend and another here will keep them ticking along nicely. A win is obviously going to send Burnley very close to the 40 point mark with 11 games left to play and they will almost certainly be safe from the drop, but this Swansea City team are much improved under Paul Clement.

The Swans have begun to score goals regularly and they have won their last 2 games at The Liberty Stadium while scoring twice against both Southampton and Leicester City. That is why they have been set as the favourite, but Burnley have also begun to find goals away from home without being able to do enough to earn their first win on their travels in the Premier League this season.

It does feel like both teams will score in this one with the way they have been attacking and defending respectively and I don't think Swansea City are going to be settling for a point.

That should keep a few chances coming and I think they can go a goal further than the Hull City versus Burnley game produced last week. Unlike Hull City, Swansea City have been winning plenty of games to feel they can push forward and win the three points on offer and that should produce a more open game than last weekend.

At odds against I will look for this game to produce at least three goals.


Watford v Southampton Pick: Both Watford and Southampton are in mid-table coming into this round of Premier League fixtures and neither looks in danger of being dragged into a relegation scrap which is developing behind them. However the winner may feel they have the momentum to end the season with a high and finish in the top half of the table which has to be the goal for both clubs.

Watford have been in decent form of late, but they were very fortunate to come away with a draw when hosting West Ham United last weekend. In the second half they were under the cosh for long periods and only some fortune enabled them to leave with another point.

They are facing a Southampton team who showed some real impressive character and quality in their 3-2 loss to Manchester United in the English Football League Cup Final. Coming back from 2-0 down showed the character and plenty would have seen The Saints as the better team on the day even if they were undone late on by Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Recovering mentally from losing the Cup Final won't be easy, but Southampton looked to have found a striker in Manolo Gabbiadini who can help them overcome some of their problems in front of goal. Gabbiadini has already scored 5 goals for Southampton since arriving in the January transfer window, and he can put an end product to the good football they have been playing.

The mental aspect is what is going to be key and prevents me getting that excited about The Saints as a pretty short favourite considering their overall form this season. A team that has won just 3 of 13 away Premier League games at just over odds against is not the most appealing, although Southampton look like they have the attacking threat to score here.

However Watford have only failed to score in 2 of their last 17 home Premier League games going back to last season and should pose a threat of their own. The 1-1 scoreline is a real player in this one, but the layers might be surprised by at least three goals being shared out by two teams who have nothing to lose.

3 of the last 6 Watford home games and 6 of the last 9 Southampton away games in the Premier League have produced at least three goals shared out. If both can play to a similar level as last weekend, they can contribute to a surprisingly high-scoring game this weekend too.


West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: The win over Middlesbrough last week will have given Crystal Palace a huge boost in confidence, but they are going to have a tough time backing that up at The Hawthorns.

This is a ground where West Brom have played really well all season and they have been scoring goals and feeling the confidence that they can turn around any setback as they did against Bournemouth last week. The potential return of Matt Phillips will give West Brom another boost in the final third and this is a team who are rightly favoured to win this match.

The Baggies still look a big price when you think they have won their last 4 at home in the Premier League and Crystal Palace have not been at their best on their travels in recent weeks. There is still enough quality in the Crystal Palace team to make them a dangerous opponent, but the fallout between Andros Townsend and Christian Benteke means the players might not all be on the same page.

There is another factor that makes me believe West Brom can win this game.

Tony Pulis.

Pulis has a really strong record against his two former clubs in the Premier League with 8 wins from 10 games against them. That includes winning 3 of 4 games against Crystal Palace since taking over at West Brom and I will back the home team to earn another three points this weekend.


Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: If Manchester United beat Bournemouth earlier in the day, Liverpool and Arsenal will be kicking off this tea time live television encounter outside of the top four of the Premier League. However the winner will be able to move back above Manchester United into the Champions League positions and there is no doubting the importance of the game.

Both teams have a lot to prove as Liverpool are heading into this weekend off a really disappointing 3-1 loss at Leicester City, while the Arsenal win at Sutton United won't have erased the painful memories of the defeat at Bayern Munich. There has been two weeks since Arsenal last played which could play a part, but suffice to say both squads have something to prove.

The absence of Jordan Henderson is a big blow for the home team as the underrated central midfielder is very difficult to replace. Liverpool have a tremendously poor record without Henderson starting too which was added to in the defeat at The King Power Stadium last time out, but I do expect a reaction at Anfield.

There were similar questions being asked of Liverpool prior to the 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur in their last game at Anfield and it also should be noted that they have tended to play well against the top six teams. In those games Liverpool have won 4 and drawn 4 so far this season and they have beaten Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City here while drawing with Chelsea and Manchester United.

Big games have tended to be big disappointments for Arsenal in recent seasons as they have underperformed in these games with some of their top players being accused of going missing. The Gunners have lost at Manchester City, Chelsea and Bayern Munich away from home while conceding at least twice in each of those games and Arsenal were more than a little fortunate to earn a 1-1 draw at Manchester United earlier in the season.

Arsenal do have a surprisingly good record at Anfield with a single defeat in their last 8 visits to this famous old Stadium, but the performances have not always matched the results. It is hard to know how the rest has affected the Arsenal players as we have seen teams come out cold in some cases, and really hot in others which makes that tough to read.

You know Jurgen Klopp is going to look for the high press and hope his front three players are better than they were at Leicester City. On the other hand Liverpool remain vulnerable defensively and goals have definitely followed these games whether they are played at Anfield or The Emirates Stadium.

6 of the last 7 overall have ended with three goals shared out, while 7 of the last 9 at Anfield have ended the same way. I can't see anything other than goals this weekend too and I will back at least three to be shared out by these teams chasing the Champions League spots.


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: After the performance from Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, I can't say I am surprised that they are short odds to win this home game against Everton. That feels a little disrespectful when you think Everton are unbeaten in 10 Premier League games in a row, including their last 5 away from home, even if only one of those games has come against a team from the top half.

Everton have also drawn at Manchester City in the Premier League, but the only other game against a team from the top six ended up in a 5-0 embarrassment at the hands of Chelsea. They have been improving over the course of the season under Ronald Koeman, but Everton are still short of the quality that the top six teams can send out onto the field.

However they do have a goalscorer in Romelu Lukaku and the injuries to Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld has to be music to his ears. Stoke City didn't create a lot last weekend, but they did have one or two big moments and Everton look like a side that can take those.

The more likely scenario is that Tottenham Hotspur are too strong for their visitors but backing them at the prices are not that appealing. However you can't easily ignore the fact that Tottenham Hotspur have conceded just a single goal in their last 7 at home in the Premier League and they have scored at least two goals in all but one of their last 8 games here in the League.

I do think Everton are playing with some confidence of late which should make them dangerous. However Tottenham Hotspur can match their hot striker by pointing to Harry Kane's form and I think the home team may end up having a little too much for Everton at White Hart Lane where they have been flying.

It does feel if Tottenham Hotspur are going to win this game, they will do it by a couple of goals and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.


Sunderland v Manchester City Pick: At the end of the 2013/14 season, Manchester City must have wondered what they had to do to earn a break at The Stadium of Light having lost for the fourth time in a row at this ground by the same 1-0 scoreline. So many of those games had seen Sunderland hit Manchester City for a sucker punch, but the players have figured it out more recently with 3 straight wins here.

There has been a similarity to a couple of those wins which have come for Manchester City by a 1-4 scoreline, and this current group of players are certainly in the kind of form to match those results. Manchester City have scored five times in wins over Monaco and Huddersfield Town in their last couple of games, while they have found something of a groove away from home too.

Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and all of those wins have come by at least two goals each time. They have also kept 4 clean sheets away from home since the 4-0 loss at Everton and there is a freedom to their play of late which makes Manchester City look very dangerous.

That won't really improve the mood of the Sunderland fans heading to The Stadium of Light on Sunday as their team remains rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table. They might also find themselves more than a win away from the safety positions by the time this game kicks off, while the fans have also experienced a 1-3 loss to Stoke City and a 0-4 defeat to Southampton in 2 of Sunderland's last 3 games here.

David Moyes has some defensive reinforcements back for this game, but Sunderland have simply not looked like a team that will be able to prevent Manchester City creating chances and scoring goals here. No one can deny Manchester City are not as stellar defensively as they are in attack, but they have kept 4 clean sheets on their travels and Sunderland have failed to score in their last 2 here.

Manchester City have won 2 of their last 3 games here by at least two goals each time and I am going to back them to cover the Asian Handicap here behind another strong attacking display.


West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: This is a big London derby which could potentially reignite the Premier League title race if Chelsea are unable to earn the full points at The London Stadium. West Ham United would like nothing more than to put a dent in the Chelsea title push and there is a fierce rivalry off the field which the players will be well aware of.

Recent weeks have seen the Chelsea strong defensive shape just take a knock or two and they are not keeping the clean sheets at the rate they were during the middle portion of the season. With West Ham United showing improvement in their own performances, The Hammers will feel they can test the Chelsea backline here especially if the pressure has been put on by Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City both winning their League games on Sunday.

The one concern for West Ham United has to be the poor form they have shown when hosting the top teams in the Premier League. Arsenal and Manchester City (twice) have hit at least four goals in their three wins in this Stadium this season while Manchester United also won 0-2 here.

However Chelsea have not been as free-scoring as both Arsenal and Manchester City have shown and so I can't really back Chelsea to win by more than a single goal margin here. Even them winning this game looks a short price considering how well West Ham United did against them in the English Football League Cup and they have shown some solid attacking potential in the final third.

Losing Michail Antonio to suspension is a blow to West Ham United, but I do think Slaven Bilic will send out an attacking team to challenge Chelsea. I do think they can play their part in what could be an entertaining live game on Monday night and I can see both teams scoring in this one.

The home fans will make sure West Ham United keep pushing for a win, while Chelsea will look for the counter attack which exploited the home team in their losses to Arsenal and Manchester City. I will look for this game to produce at least three goals on Monday in what looks like a 2-1 kind of game, even if picking the winner is more difficult


Bristol City v Burton Albion Pick: This is such a big game for both Bristol City and Burton Albion that there is a chance that the tension is going to make both sets of players just freeze a little thanks to the pressures of the game. Those tensions can lead to tight games, but both Bristol City and Burton Albion have been scoring goals of late, while not exactly producing top defensive efforts, which suggests this might surprise the layers.

The oddsmakers have set the line of at least three goals being scored at odds against, but I really do think both Bristol City and Burton Albion can score in this one. Lee Johnson has to send his Bristol City team out to attack and win the game, but they have been left exposed defensively which is where Burton Albion can make hay.

Burton Albion have scored in 6 of their last 8 away games in the Championship so will feel confident they can do the same here as Bristol City have had 1 clean sheet in their last 7 League games at Ashton Gate. On the other hand, Burton Albion's clean sheet at Derby County was the first they have achieved in 11 away games in the League and Bristol City have found their way to goals of late.

It just feels like the oddsmakers are hoping for the teams to cancel each other out with nerves, but I think the style of play could produce a game that does create chances and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big, and appealing, price.


Derby County v Barnsley Pick: These two clubs might only be separated by one place in the Championship standings, but Barnsley have to be feeling a lot more positive about their season than Derby County. The winner of this game may also feel they still have a chance of making the Play Offs at the end of the season, while the losing team is likely going to be consigned to another season at this level.

For Derby County that would be a huge disappointment, but for Barnsley this has been a season of overachievement. Recent form makes it hard to see how Derby County are pretty short odds on to win this fixture, especially when you consider Barnsley's recent away games on their own.

Barnsley do score goals and Derby County had been conceding them at an alarming rate at The iPro Stadium in recent games and it makes the away side appealing with the start.

They have lost their last 2 visits to Derby County, but the last of those was three seasons ago and The Rams can not be playing with a lot of confidence. I will take Barnsley with the start on the Asian Handicap and look for them to keep up a strong away record in recent League outings.


Ipswich Town v Brentford Pick: This is a really simple pick for me- both Ipswich Town and Brentford have been scoring and conceding goals for fun in recent weeks and I would be surprised if they can't get together to produce a decent game of football on Saturday.

Neither team has much to lose from the fixture so can play with some freedom and that has resulted in both Ipswich Town and Brentford producing decent stuff of late.

It is Brentford who have been involved in some really high-scoring games of late and I expect they can make the running here. With Ipswich Town being at home, Mick McCarthy will be expected to send out a team with attacking intent too and they should combine to produce some fireworks.

There were four goals here when they met in the League last season, but I will hope for at least three to be shared out at odds against.


Nottingham Forest v Brighton Pick: There is every chance both Nottingham Forest and Brighton could score in this game, but I like the chances of the away side bouncing back and earning a victory at The City Ground.

Both teams are desperate for the three points for differing reasons, but I have more confidence in Brighton who are much higher in the League table for a reason. I don't want to underestimate a Nottingham Forest team who have a strong home record, but Brighton have found ways to win games on their travels at this level and I think they can do that again.

Brighton have a decent recent record at Nottingham Forest with 2 wins from 3 visits to The City Ground and they have scored 5 goals in their last 2 away games in the League. Add in the fact that Sheffield Wednesday managed to come away with a 1-2 win from this ground in the last couple of weeks and I think Brighton can be backed at odds against to secure the three points to take them back to the top of the Championship for a couple of hours.

It will be tight and tense for both teams, but Brighton's goal scoring threat looks a bit more consistent than Nottingham Forest's and I will back the away side here.


Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: This could have been an absolutely mammoth fixture for the television cameras if Newcastle United had lost at Brighton when trailing going into the last ten minutes a few days ago. Instead it is a very important fixture and one that Huddersfield Town will be desperate to win if they have realistic ambitions of closing down the top two teams in the Championship.

There will be plenty of confidence that Huddersfield Town can win the game having beaten the likes of Brighton, Reading and Leeds United here in recent weeks. Those three teams are all in the top five of the Championship and Huddersfield Town have certainly enjoyed playing at home.

Of course the quality that Newcastle United have in their own squad can turn around any game in the Division as they showed in the win at Brighton. The Magpies have a really strong away record, the best in the Championship, and they too should be flying around the pitch after beating Brighton during the week.

Both teams have shown they are very confident going forward, and I think the attacking options will get the better of their defensive counterparts on the day. Huddersfield Town create plenty of chances at home and the starters are well rested with David Wagner shuffling his pack for the FA Cup Replay at Manchester City on Wednesday.

With Newcastle United having to put in a lot emotionally and physically, Wagner will hope fresh legs gives his team the edge in this game. However you have to think Newcastle United will score here as both Leeds United and Brighton have done in their defeats and I can see both teams trying to win the game rather than settling for a point if it is 1-1 during the course of ninety minutes.

Either way the oddsmakers are taking a real chance with the big quotes for at least three goals to be shared out and I am backing goals in this one. 5 of the last 8 Huddersfield Town home League games have ended with at least three goals shared out and 3 of the last 4 Newcastle United away League games have done the same.

The price just doesn't look correct to me and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this huge game in the Championship on Saturday afternoon.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Hull City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Swansea City-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Bristol City-Burton Albion Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Coral (2 Units)
Barnsley + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ipswich Town-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brighton @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 William Hill (2 Units)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)