Euro 2020 Last 16 Picks 2021 (June 26th-29th)

The path to Euro 2020 success has been laid out for the remaining sixteen teams in the tournament and there is no doubt that the Knock Out Stages are very much top loaded.

While Italy, Belgium, Portugal, France and Spain were all amongst the favourites before the Finals began, only one of those nations is going to be able to make the Euro 2020 Final at Wembley Stadium in just over two weeks time.

England, Germany and the Netherlands are the big names in the other half of the draw, but the likes of Wales, Denmark and Sweden will feel there is an opportunity for them too in what looks a much more open section.

Right now I would still have France down as the favourites with the most favourable of the Last 16 ties for those top nations, while Belgium are likely going to have to beat four top teams to take home a title the golden generation have been desperate to secure.

The winner of the England/Germany tie on Tuesday afternoon is going to be a big favourite to move through the draw to the Final, but I really like the way the Netherlands have approached things and they have winnable matches through to the Semi Final and made the inaugural Nations League Final which also has to be respected.

The tournament has been a little underwhelming to this point and I think that is down to a couple of factors- the event being held in multiple countries at a time when travelling for fans is restricted at best means the atmospheres have perhaps not matched previous tournaments, and the pandemic itself has had a huge impact as to the way fans approach watching these matches at home too.

There is also a lack of danger in the early stages of the tournament with only eight of the twenty-four teams playing in the European Finals exiting before the Knock Out Stages. That removes some of the intensity of the Group Stage and I would not be surprised if this is a competition that is expanded to thirty-two teams before the end of this decade to try and increase the importance of the Groups, even if the competition itself would be diluted significantly.

UEFA won't be too concerned about that knowing the financial rewards that will come with a bigger tournament and it would make sense to do that in time for Euro 2028 when the World Cup is increased to forty-eight teams two years earlier.

The one country approach going forward should also reinvigorate the competition, while the Knock Out Rounds of the 2020 (2021?) edition could really spark the entire event. There are some big matches in the Last 16 and with the top teams likely moving through there could be some huge fixtures to be played before a winner is decided.

England have a very good chance of ending a long wait for success, but I still lean towards France who have been pretty quiet in the Group Stages of Euro 2016 and 2018 World Cup before turning on the style in the Knock Out Rounds. A similar trend could see France blitz through the Knock Out Stages and become European Champions two years after taking over the world.

The Group Stages have been pretty decent for the Euro 2020 Picks I have been making, but things intensify in the Knock Out Rounds and that could lead to some tighter contests. I certainly think that could be the case as the tournament moves on, but the Last 16 draw looks a good one and I am hoping the entertainment value will rocket upwards.

Saturday 26th June

Wales vs Denmark Pick: The tragic Christian Eriksen situation played a major part in Denmark's opening loss to Finland, but the squad has rallied together after their friend and team-mate was considered over the bump and looking like he will be put on a road to recovery.

The inspired Danes have dominated their last two Group games, but they couldn't hold on against Belgium and so needed to beat the Russians at home. The second of those games was even more impressive from Denmark who hammered Russia 4-1 in Copenhagen and will now travel to Amsterdam in good form and with some real momentum behind them.

Before the tournament I did suggest Denmark could be a dark horse and they have been given the right draw with a Last 16 tie against Wales followed by a Quarter Final against the winner of the Netherlands-Czech Republic fixture.

Christian Eriksen will be a loss for any team, but Denmark have created a lot of chances in the last couple of games while they have continued to defend pretty well. A lack of clean sheets may suggest otherwise, but Denmark were punished by Belgium in one game despite having the better of the overall game, while Russia needed a Penalty to break through this defence.

Players like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey will help Wales carry a threat and they are in a position where some fans may feel only matching the Semi Final run of 2016 will be considered a positive tournament from here. The players are perhaps more realistic and understand the challenges ahead, but in Bale and Ramsey there are match winners in the Wales ranks that will make them dangerous.

Wales have played well in the tournament, but I think Denmark represent another level from the likes of Turkey and Switzerland. In only the fixture against Turkey have Wales really been deserving of the result they have obtained, but they were a little fortunate against Switzerland and Denmark are arguably better than both of those nations.

Denmark hold the mental edge having beaten Wales twice in the 2018/19 Nations League, while the momentum is also hard to shift behind the favourites for this Last 16 tie.

I imagine Robert Page will pick a team that looks to be solid at the back and try and hit Denmark on the counter, but the latter have been a better team than Wales in this tournament and I think that eventually shows up. The first goal is going to be crucial for both teams, but I do think Denmark are playing with the positivity and confidence that suggests they will have the better of this game and they can win in the ninety minutes scheduled.

Italy vs Austria Pick: You never want to peak too early in a tournament and that has to be the only worry for Italy fans that will be proud of their national team once again after the hugely embarrassing failure to even Qualify for the 2018 World Cup.

Not many would have seriously believed Italy can win Euro 2020, but the development of the national team will be a project that may reap rewards in the years ahead and for that Roberto Mancini will be much admired.

His team have played attacking, modern football but without losing the Italian identity of being strong in defence and that has played out in the Group Stage where Italy have scored seven goals and kept clean sheets against Turkey, Switzerland and Wales. Even a much changed team in the final Group game were comfortable against the Welsh and the Last 16 tie looks like one that Italy should be very happy with.

Bigger challenges are going to come in the heavy loaded top half of the draw and with that in mind Giorgio Chiellini is unlikely to be risked in this tie. The Italians will feel they can contain an Austria team that were well beaten by the Netherlands in the Group Stage in Amsterdam, but they will also have to respect the fact they finished 2nd in Group C.

I am not convinced that was the toughest section out there and Austria will have to defend a lot better than what we saw from them in their defeat to the Netherlands. On another day the margin would have been much greater than the 2-0 final score suggested and I do think Italy are the kind of team who could be rampant if there is any kind of repeat of that performance from Austria.

Finding a way to challenge an Italy team that have kept eleven clean sheets in eleven straight wins is a huge task for Austria who were crushed 0-4 by Denmark in a World Cup Qualifier in March. The manager likes his team to be a little more proactive on the attacking side of things, but that leaves Austria open at times and Italy have shown they can score plenty of goals with those being provided from players throughout the squad.

Before the 1-0 win over Wales, Italy had scored at least twice in ten straight wins, but it was a much changed team that saw that run come to an end. I think there is every chance Italy will at least begin a new trend of that many goals being scored in this Last 16 tie and I think that will be enough to see them past Austria and take their place in what is likely to be a huge Quarter Final next Friday evening.

Sunday 27th June

Netherlands vs Czech Republic Pick: The draw for the Knock Out Rounds of the Euro 2020 tournament looks extremely top loaded and there is a big opportunity for a big run for one of the dark horses to open the event.

The Netherlands and Czech Republic have both previously had huge successes in this continental competition and the current squads will sense there is a big opportunity in front of them. The winner will certainly believe they are favourites to beat whoever they face in the Quarter Final and once you get into the final four of any competition there has to be a real belief that something special can occur.

It would be a huge return to major international tournament events for the Netherlands who missed out on Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup and they haven't really put a foot wrong in the tournament so far. Granted all of those games were home games in Amsterdam and now they have to travel to Budapest, but the Netherlands will be happy with their level and they have been creating a lot of chances.

There are questions about their defensive stability, especially when they will move onto tougher tests, but the Czech Republic have not really created as much in the final third as they would have liked. A Penalty got them on the board against Croatia and the Czech Republic failed to score against England with very little created in those games, while they also have to answer questions defensively considering the positions Scotland and England managed to get into against the Czechs.

It is a concern for the Czech Republic who will have to feel that the Netherlands are going to get on the front foot and cause problems for them.

The first goal will be important, but I do think there has been enough creativity shown by the Netherlands to feel they can get in front and then hurt the Czech Republic on the counter attack.

A poor record against this nation is a slight concern, but the Netherlands are a squad of players that may feel there is more to come from them despite the eight goals scored in the Group. I think they will cause plenty of problems for the Czech Republic in this Last 16 tie and the Netherlands can continue their run of scoring at least twice and extend that to 11 games on their way to another victory and a place in the Quarter Final of the Euro 2020 Finals.

Belgium vs Portugal Pick: Before a ball was kicked at Euro 2020 the likes of Belgium and Portugal were right amongst the favourites to win the tournament and it is something of a shame that one of these nations will be exiting the event on Sunday.

Both teams are in the loaded top half of the draw and whoever is able to get through to the Final is going to have to beat some very good teams to do that.

Belgium and Portugal cannot look too far ahead and both Roberto Martinez and Fernando Santos will know how tough the task is to win this Last 16 tie. The two teams have tremendous talent littered through the squads and Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo are in fine form which will give Belgium and Portugal plenty of confidence they can find the goals to secure passage through to the next Round.

The narrow favourites are Belgium who have won all three Group games, while Portugal secured four points in their own section. However, it should be pointed out that Belgium had a much more comfortable Group compared with Portugal and they will have to be a lot better than they were in their narrow win over Denmark to win a game like this one.

Belgium have been creating chances though and they have players like Kevin De Bruyne and Lukaku who will feel they can hurt this Portugal defence. Five years ago Portugal won the Euro 2016 title with a strong defensive effort, but they have conceded six goals in a couple of games against Germany and France and those teams did create some good chances in those fixtures against the Portuguese.

That will be encouragement for Belgium who have a manager that will want his team to get forward and score goals and they have managed to do that in 33 consecutive fixtures. It is difficult to imagine those drying up here, but an ageing Belgian defence is vulnerable to the speed and quality that Portugal have in the final third and I do think that makes it an intriguing fixture.

While Portugal have given up some big chances in their last couple of games, they have scored at least twice in each fixture played at the Euro 2020 Finals. This is a team that has created chances and quick feet from their wide players have also forced teams to make mistakes and give away Penalties, something an ageing Belgium backline will have to be wary of.

I do think both teams will score in normal time, but this feels like it could develop into a very attacking game considering the approach we are likely to see from Belgium. That should leave spaces for Portugal too and I think there will be at least three goals shared out considering the performances we have seen from both teams so far in the tournament.

Picking a winner is not easy and I do think it is going to come down to which of Lukaku or Ronaldo is most clinical on the day.

I won't pick which way it goes, but will look for at least three goals to be shared out before that winner is decided.

Monday 28th June

Croatia vs Spain Pick: In recent times both Croatia and Spain have had considerable success on the international stage, but the feeling is that both of these teams are in transition at the moment.

While a smaller nation like Croatia are unlikely to produce a team like the one that reached the World Cup Final in 2018 any time soon, they have historically produced some very good sides. Since that World Cup key players have moved on and they are still heavily reliant on the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic, but Croatia have struggled for consistency in the final third through their opening Group fixtures.

It is a concern for them against a Spanish team that still likes to get the ball down and play and who are fresh off a big win over Slovakia. Despite that, there is still a feeling that Spain lack the quality needed in the final third to really go on and win this tournament, although you do have to respect a team that can create as many strong chances as Spain have so far in this tournament.

Both of these teams will like to control the ball and play the game at their own tempo, and I do think it will be a fixture that is competitive throughout. However, it is Spain who have looked more capable of creating a consistency of chances and they do have enough in the final third to believe they can earn a narrow victory in this Last 16 tie.

Spain do have to overcome some mental hurdles- since winning Euro 2012, Spain have not won a Knock Out tie at any of the next three major international tournaments, while Croatia are plenty experienced after working their way through to the World Cup Final three years ago.

That is a concern for Luis Enrique and his team, but I think Spain will do just enough to edge past an opponent that have perhaps hit their peak to reach the Knock Out Rounds.

France vs Switzerland Pick: While Germany will head to London to take on England and Portugal will be travelling to Seville to play Belgium, France have been rewarded for winning the 'Group of Death' with a fixture against Switzerland in Bucharest.

This is the 'easiest' of the fixtures the three teams coming out of Group F will be facing, but France can't take anything for granted. Back to back draws has dented some of the early momentum picked up in their win over Germany in Munich and Didier Deschamps will be looking for more from his team who have looked good at times, but have yet to really stamp their authority on this tournament.

They do have a chance to make a statement when hosting a Switzerland team that needed a special Xherdan Shaqiri performance to beat Turkey and move through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers. A change in approach has seen Switzerland try and get on the front foot, but they may return to type in this fixture knowing how dangerous their opponents can be.

An attacking approach saw Switzerland exposed by Italy in Rome in a 3-0 loss in the Group Stage, but it may be their best bet to try and upset the odds. We have yet to see France defend as well as they would like, but this is a team that can create chances and will see the Switzerland defence as one that is more vulnerable than it has been in recent years.

France have some very strong attacking talent and they have been creating plenty of chances in their last couple of games. They could also be very dangerous on the counter attack if France get their noses in front and this is a team that has scored plenty of goals in Knock Out ties at Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup.

I would not be that surprised if the Swiss look to frustrate and try and hit France on the counter themselves, but this France team is full of quality. We have yet to really see them hit their stride, but France have not really performed that strongly in each of the last two Group Stages in 2016 and 2018 before really turning it on in the attacking third in the Knock Out Rounds.

They should be too good for a Switzerland team that were overwhelmed by Italy in Rome and I think France win a game that features at least two goals on the night.

Tuesday 29th June

England vs Germany Pick: All anyone in England would have been hearing for a few days is how it would be better for the national team to avoid winning Group D and give themselves the best path through to the Euro 2020 Final.

That was before the 1-0 win over the Czech Republic which earned England top spot in their own section and the irony is that those calling for anything else would have been seriously wrong. Croatia face Spain and the Czech Republic face the Netherlands, but England have the benefit of hosting this Last 16 tie against old rivals Germany and the winner of this tie will be a considerable favourite to be playing in the Final of the Euro 2020 in a couple of Sundays time.

Winning Group D did mean England would have a tough test, but it was only a late Germany equaliser on Wednesday that prevented this being a home game against Hungary. Instead it is Germany who took 2nd place in Group F, but this is a team filled with inconsistencies and one that is vulnerable to the speed and counter attacking ability England play with.

Joachim Low's men will try and get forward and pressure an England defence which has kept five clean sheets in a row. Germany will certainly feel they can have some successes knowing the chances that Scotland created at Wembley Stadium and especially when you think of the opportunities that Germany have created in their opening three Group games.

All were played in Munich, but Germany have won 6 of their last 8 away competitive fixtures and they will feel they have plenty of attacking quality to hurt England.

This not a vintage Germany team, but they are one that has to be respected after seeing the way they tore through Portugal. They had enough chances to beat Hungary and earn a draw with France too and much is going to depend on what side of the bed the players get out of on Tuesday.

England will likely play the way they have been which is to focus on the defensive side of things and hope they can show enough quality to break down their opponents. The performances in the Nations League is some concern when England have come up against better opponents, but Germany look vulnerable too and I think an early goal will really open up this Last 16 tie.

There is pressure on both sets of players who will recognise the opportunity in front of them if they can win this tie, but Germany as an underdog will feel they have 'nothing to lose'. That makes them dangerous, but the style should also leave spaces for England to exploit and I would not be surprised if this is a high-scoring game between old rivals.

Games between England and Germany have historically been tight and competitive affairs, but the visitors have shown their best form of defence is to get forward and try and overwhelm opponents. Goals have been flowing in the last couple of matches, but defensively England will feel this German team is very exploitable to pacy attacks and goals look like they will be on the menu.

Having home advantage should give England enough of an edge to work their way past Germany here, but it might be a more enjoyable game for the neutrals than those invested in either nation.

Sweden vs Ukraine Pick: There will be fans of both of these nations that will already feel disrespected by the likes of England and Germany essentially speaking about their chances of reaching the Final of the Euro 2020 as long as they are able to make it through to the Quarter Final out of that Last 16 tie.

That isn't a complete disrespect to Sweden and Ukraine, but neither of these teams were really expected to contend at the tournament and yet they are on the brink of a Quarter Final. Sweden will have reached back to back major tournament Quarter Finals which would be remarkable considering it has happened in the years since Zlatan Ibrahimovic has retired and missed out.

Injury prevented Ibrahimovic playing in Euro 2020, but Sweden's squad have rallied together without their talisman and this is a team that is much greater than the sum of their parts. Beating out Spain and Poland to win this Group is no mean feat and they will be heading into the Last 16 tie with nothing to lose.

However, there is some sense of expectation around this tie which will be a new element for Sweden to deal with. They may not be big favourites, but they are favourites to beat a Ukraine team that had a negative goal difference and lost two of their three Group games and were still able to make it through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers.

Ukraine had some expectations around them to have a good tournament, but they haven't played as well as they would have liked in the defeats to Netherlands and Austria. Getting through gives them another chance, but Ukraine's confidence has to be dented by those losses and the manner in which they were beaten with both Holland and Austria creating plenty of really good chances.

Andriy Shevchenko wants Ukraine to play on the front foot, but they have not been as creative as they would have liked and this is a team that has struggled for goals. They scored twice against North Macedonia, but one of those was a Penalty and Ukraine also fought back to 2-2 against the Netherlands thanks to two special finishes, but over the last twelve months it has been a real issue for them in the final third.

Before Euro 2020 began, Ukraine beat Cyprus 4-0 in a friendly to snap a run of 12 games in which they had failed to score more than a single goal. The lack of chances created in the games with the Netherlands and Austria are thus a concern and I am not sure they will get much change out of Sweden despite the fact that this team has not been as watertight at the back as they would have liked.

Sweden have given up a huge amount of chances in their Group games with Spain and Poland and I do think better teams will take advantage of that as the Euro 2020 tournament continues, but I am not convinced Ukraine will be able to do the same. And as poor as Sweden have looked at times at the back, they have been creating chances in all of their games and I think that is where they have a narrow edge over this Last 16 opponent in what looks one of the weaker ties to come at this Stage of the tournament.

Extra Time would not be a massive surprise considering the limitations of both of these teams, but I think Sweden are the overall better team and backing them to Qualify for the Last Eight makes the most appeal.

MY PICKS: Denmark to Win @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Italy to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Netherlands to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belgium-Portugal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Spain to Win & Under 4 Total Goals @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

France to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

England-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sweden to Qualify @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)

Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)

Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (March 5-7)

We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.

Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.

The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.


This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.

Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.

They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.

It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.

While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.

Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.

At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.

In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.

My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.

You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.

However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.

They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.

This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.

Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.

It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.

The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.

I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.


Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.

There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.

That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.

Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.

However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.

It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.

Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.

I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.


Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.

That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.

Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.

That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.

The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.

Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.

10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.

The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.


Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.

That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.

It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.

The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.

It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.

Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.

Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.


Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.

Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.

In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.

Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.

In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.


Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.

In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.

For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.

It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.

With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.

Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.

I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.

You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.


Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.

For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.

It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.

Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.

Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.

They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.

With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 19-21)

The Champions League opening games might have been good ones for the neutral, but it wasn't much fun for Manchester United fans after suffering a home loss to Paris Saint-Germain that puts them firmly behind the black ball as far as progressing to the Quarter Finals goes.

That's something that will be revisited next month when United head to Paris and try and overturn the big advantage Paris Saint-Germain have built up, but the French Champions have had some memorable Champions League collapses before so you just never know.


This week it is the turn of the two biggest United rivals to get on with the opening of their Last 16 Champions League ties, while both Arsenal and Chelsea aim to put themselves into the hat for the Europa League Last 16 draw which takes place on Friday. Even though Arsenal were beaten in the First Leg, I would expect both of those clubs to find their way through to the next Round in what may soon become their best pathway back into the Champions League much like it was for Manchester United in the 2016/17 season.


The Premier League is going to be back this weekend, but fixtures begin on Friday so the Fantasy Football thread with the weekend selections will be ready to go around six hours before the FPL deadline on the day.


Liverpool v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Last 16 draw has pitted together three ties involving English Premier League clubs taking on Bundesliga representatives and this is the second of those three ties.

Last week Tottenham Hotspur weathered an early Borussia Dortmund storm and then cruised into a 3-0 lead against the Bundesliga leaders, but Dortmund might just be going through a sticky patch. That isn't the case as much for Bayern Munich who have been scoring goals and producing plenty of wins to close the gap on the leaders in Germany and also give themselves real momentum going into the First Leg of this Second Round tie.

They face a rested Liverpool team whose primary focus may be winning the Premier League title, but who showed they are a dangerous Champions League team on their run to the Final last season. While some would suggest Liverpool ignore all Cup competitions and solely focus on the League, Jurgen Klopp won't want to lose to a team from the Bundesliga and Liverpool should have had ample time to prepare for this tie.

The absence of Virgil Van Dijk is a real blow for Liverpool considering the strength he has helped impose at the back. That may leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's attacking play, but I also think Liverpool have players in the final third that will scare the Bavarian giants and who have to be respected.

Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals and have a long unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League. In their 8 games unbeaten, Bayern Munich have scored in each one and also beaten the likes of Sevilla and drawn at Real Madrid in a game they could have easily won on another day.

It makes me believe they can play their part in this First Leg, but my lean has been to Liverpool to have a lead to take to Germany next month. Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League games including the last 5 in a row, and one of the exceptions was a goalless draw with Porto in this Round twelve months ago after Liverpool had crushed them in Portugal.

Liverpool score plenty of goals at home in the Champions League and I think they edge out a high-scoring game which leaves the Second Leg with all to play for. The best play on the day may be backing Liverpool to win the First Leg in which both teams hit the net and that has to be worth a small interest.


Lyon v Barcelona Pick: A few days ago the layers were thinking about giving Lyon a full goal head-start on the Asian Handicap for this Last 16 First Leg tie and I would have been very keen to select the French side as the right play in this fixture.

Things have just changed slightly so while Lyon are getting a start, they are not getting the full goal which means a one goal loss would see half the stake refunded and the other half settled as a loser.

It worries me slightly, but I really do think Lyon have the talent and the confidence to earn a positive result in the First Leg of this Champions League tie, although Barcelona should be too strong over two Legs.

Lyon's recent home form in the Champions League is a worry with a single win from 10 games they have hosted in this competition, but only Juventus have managed to win from the last 6 visitors. Manchester City had massive problems dealing with Lyon in the Group Stage and I do think the confidence of the talented players the French side have can at least put Barcelona under pressure here.

They are also facing a Barcelona team who had won 1 of 7 away Champions League games prior to this season, although they did beat Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven on their travels in the Group. The win over PSV was a narrow one though and Barcelona are a team that are vulnerable away from the Nou Camp and I do think Lyon can take advantage of a team that has not been in the best form of late.

Lyon have drawn with Manchester City and beaten Paris Saint-Germain here and scored twice in both games. If they reach that number again I don't think they lose and I am not always convinced about Barcelona away from home despite the obvious talent they have.

Barcelona would likely be very happy with a score draw here and I will select Lyon with the start to get something from the First Leg.


Atletico Madrid v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties in the Champions League I do think the Atletico Madrid versus Juventus one is the toughest to call.

Both teams will play with a similar ambition in this one with neither wanting to give too much away and hoping for magic from their forward players.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns to Madrid for the first time since leaving Real Madrid and I am sure he is going to get a very 'warm' reception from the Atletico fans. He has provided the magic moments to help beat Atletico Madrid a number of times in the Champions League during his time with Real Madrid and looks to be the main Juventus threat on the pitch.

Antoine Griezmann will be looking to spark Atletico Madrid who would love to be playing the Champions League Final in their home Stadium in June.

Neither team has been in outstanding form which does make this tie that much tougher to call, although my lean is that home advantage in the Second Leg will be the critical factor and give Juventus the chance to edge through to the Quarter Final.

First they have to concentrate on this Leg and Juventus have been very good away from home in the Champions League in the last twelve months. During that time they have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, Valencia and Manchester United and so you have to think that Juventus will be feeling good about their chances here.

However Atletico Madrid have a very strong home record with 8 straight home European wins including beating the likes of Roma and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. I really am having a hard time separating the teams and this is a tie that could be decided by an outstanding piece of skill to break down two organised defences.

I don't think either will want to give too much away in the First Leg though and backing a draw might be worth a small interest on the day.


Schalke v Manchester City Pick: At this moment the layers are taking no chances with the Manchester City prices to win games of football and that has seen them being asked to cover some big handicaps as short priced favourites.

A week ago Manchester City were the favourites to win here, but they have seen that price shrink after resting key players in the win over Newport County on Saturday. All of those big names are expected back in the Champions League and you can't really argue that the expectation is that Manchester City are going to win this First Leg simply on current form.

Schalke have played better at home, but they are a team struggling in the Bundesliga and the style of play should work to Manchester City's advantage. The home team will know their best chance of upsetting the favourites in this tie is by winning the Home Leg and that should leave spaces for the speed of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to expose.

Manchester City have already won in Hoffenheim in the Group and I suggest this task is perhaps a slightly more 'easier' one for them as long as they focus. You have to respect every team when they are hosting the fixture, but Manchester City have the talent edge and I can see them opening up Schalke whenever the Bundesliga club come forward.

Schalke have lost 3 of their last 4 home games against Premier League opposition all 3 losses came by two or more goals. They have lost 6 home Bundesliga games and 4 of those have come by at least two goal margins, while Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away Champions League fixtures and 4 of those have come by two or more goals.

I can't see beyond a Manchester City win here and I think they will do it with room to spare and make the Second Leg little more than a formality to progress to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.75 Bet Victor
Lyon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Atletico Madrid-Juventus Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 12-14)

The Champions League is back this week as the first half of the Last 16 First Legs are played on Tuesday and Wednesday before the second half of those ties commence next Tuesday.

The Europa League has an extra Knock Out Round to negotiate than the Champions League so the entire Last 32 ties will be completed over the next ten days before the draw for the Last 16 is made and those ties are set to go in early March. That will be the same time as the Champions League Last 16 Second Legs are played.


With a number of the big name teams all getting through to the Last 16 of the Champions League it does mean we have been rewarded with some mouth-watering ties. The neutrals are going to really be in a position to enjoy those the most, but for fans of the clubs involved it can be an exciting and tense time.

As a Manchester United fan I certainly feel like the Last 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain is the pick of the Round, especially with the changes that have happened at Old Trafford since the day the draw was put together. Jose Mourinho was still in charge of Manchester United that Monday morning after the Liverpool defeat, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over a day later and Manchester United have responded with a fantastic run and are now narrow underdogs against PSG.

The French Champions are missing Neymar and Edinson Cavani for the First Leg which will only encourage United fans even more, but my gut feeling is that Paris are going to be a little too good over two Legs. I don't think they will have it easy though and if United can take a two goal lead to the French capital I may change my mind, but my feeling is that we are going to see two high-scoring games and Paris Saint-Germain may still be slightly stronger.

There is pressure on them to perform though considering the open secret of the owners prioritising the Champions League and a third straight Last 16 exit would be a huge blow for the club. Manchester United seem to have less to lose and that may be a factor that helps them earn the upset and book a spot in the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time since David Moyes was manager of the club.

Two of the other English clubs involved in the Second Round are also involved in good looking ties on paper- Tottenham Hotspur are battling through injuries as they host Borussia Dortmund in the First Leg, while Liverpool take on defending German Champions Bayern Munich.

I really believe both clubs have a very good chance of progressing, but they have to have leads to take to Germany next month if they are going to do that. My feeling is that the Premier League clubs will just have a little too much for the Bundesliga ones over two Legs, although I am sure some Liverpool fans won't begrudge going out of the competition if it enhances their chances of winning the Premier League.

Manchester City received the easiest of the Second Round ties, but they were the only English Group Winners so they deserve the reward of facing Schalke who are struggling in the Bundesliga. A sweep of the German top flight by English teams is a genuine possibility in the Second Round which would not be welcomed by the Bundesliga.


Real Madrid and Barcelona should be comfortable in making it through to yet another Champions League Quarter Final when they meet Ajax and Lyon respectively. Both of the underdogs impressed in the Group Stage, but things tend to be ramped up at this stage of the Champions League and the two Spanish clubs are amongst the favourites to win the top prize again. Those two teams have won the last five Champions League titles since Bayern Munich in 2013 and good luck if you're opposing them to continue that trend.


No disrespect to Roma and Porto, but the winner of that Second Round tie is going to be the team that the other seven who make it through to the Last Eight will be hoping to draw in the next Round. The edge has to be given to Roma after their Semi Final run last season, even if the team is not as strong this time around, and it would be a real surprise if either of these teams would make it beyond the Quarter Final.

Finally the Italian Champions Juventus look to take the next step in the Champions League having finished Runners Up in two of the last four seasons. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a breathtaking goal against Manchester United in the Group Stage, but the big investment was made in the striker to perform now and Juventus are hoping he can be the differential having lost some tight matches in recent years.

They meet Atletico Madrid in the Second Round in what looks a tactically fascinating match, although perhaps not one for those who like seeing high-scoring games of football. Atletico Madrid are another club who have come very, very close to winning the Champions League in recent years and they have the confidence of winning the Europa League last season behind them, but I can't help feel that Diego Simeone's window to win the top European competition has just shut a little bit.

Atletico Madrid should be highly motivated to reach the Final which is being played in their magnificent new Stadium, but I am leaning towards Juventus making it through this difficult tie especially with home advantage in the Second Leg.


The Europa League is also back this week as I have mentioned and that means the British interest is with Arsenal, Chelsea and Celtic.

After recent performances in the Premier League, both London clubs might just be taking a second look at the Europa League as the way to get back into the Champions League. It is far too early to think Arsenal or Chelsea prioritise the Europa League over the Premier League, but it is important for both teams to make it through to the Last 16 and keep two paths into the top European competition open going into March.

They face BATE Borisov and Malmo respectively and I won't be writing anything controversial by suggesting Arsenal and Chelsea are huge favourites to make it through those ties. The situation is clearer for Arsenal who face BATE Borisov twice over an eight day period without any fixtures in between, but Chelsea have to play Malmo around the Monday night FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Manchester United so Maurizio Sarri has to find the right blend in those games while also dealing with the fallout from the 6-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City.

Brendan Rodgers will be happy to take his Celtic team into European competition after Christmas which has long been the target for him. They failed to make it into the Champions League Group Stage for the first time under the former Liverpool manager and Celtic rode their luck to edge out Leipzig in the Europa League Group. Now they face a tough test from the Primera Division in Spain as they meet Valencia who only just finished behind Manchester United in the Champions League Group Stage back in December.

Most have Valencia down as a pretty big favourite to progress, but a good result in the First Leg could give Celtic a chance against a goal-shy opponent. It's still a long shot but Celtic have nothing to lose in a tie where they are a heavy underdog and the First Leg at Celtic Park is going to produce a top atmosphere like many of their European home nights tend to do.


Below you can read my thoughts and selections as to how I believe the European ties being played this week are going to go. The big one is on Tuesday night at Old Trafford, but the rest of the week has some good looking action too before we move into the FA Cup Fifth Round ties being played over the upcoming weekend.


Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: When the draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League was made in mid-December the initial reaction from the oddsmakers were that Paris Saint-Germain were going to be strong favourites to see off Manchester United.

At that time Manchester United had just been hammered 3-1 at Liverpool and Jose Mourinho was still in charge, but the last two months have seen things change drastically.

Now the players are performing with confidence and 10 wins from 11 games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer means they come into this tie with a lot of belief they can see off one of the Champions League favourites. Things have also changed for Paris Saint-Germain, but those changes have been far less positive with news that two of the vaunted front three could miss the First Leg.

Neymar is almost certainly out of both Legs, but Edinson Cavani suffered a knock which makes him a doubt for the game at Old Trafford too.

Before United fans get too carried away I do think Paris Saint-Germain still have plenty of quality going forward and Manchester United have looked far from secure defensively. However the positive attitude of Solskjaer has rubbed off on the players and their confidence getting forward should give Manchester United plenty of chances to try and expose a Paris Saint-Germain defence which has had problems in the Champions League in recent years.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Paris Saint-Germain have conceded at least two goals at Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Liverpool in the Champions League. The last four clubs all scored at least three home goals against Paris Saint-Germain and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough and have enough pace in the final third to at least get at their visitors.

Keeping the backdoor shut won't be easy even though PSG are without Neymar and possibly without Cavani.

With that in mind we could see one of the more entertaining ties in the Last 16 of the Champions League. Both Legs should see goals being scored and I believe it is going to be a tie that should be pleasing on the eye for the neutrals tuning in.

Paris Saint-Germain have a pretty poor record in England having won 1 of their last 9 visits across the Channel. They have been beaten in this country in half of their 6 visits since 2014 and I think Manchester United can add to that record.

I imagine the tie will still be very much alive when they reconvene in Paris next month, but I am going to back Manchester United to have a lead going into the Second Leg.

It is hard to imagine PSG leaving Old Trafford without a goal though and so I will have a small interest in Manchester United to win a game in which both teams score. Paris Saint-Germain still have enough of a threat in the final third to pose Manchester United problems and 1 clean sheet in 7 games at Old Trafford makes it hard to believe they can keep one here.

The French Champions have also scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 visits to England in the Champions League including twice at Liverpool in the Group Stage and so backing Manchester United to win a game where both teams score looks a very big price and worth a small interest.

Of course I would love United to win this one 4-0, but my head is ruling my heart with this selection from a fascinating Last 16 tie.


Roma v Porto Pick: The Champions League is always going to be a very important competition for clubs around Europe and this looks like a tie that both Roma and Porto will appreciate as they try and reach the Quarter Final of the tournament.

It is not one in which you can clearly pick who will make it through to the Last Eight and I do think the home Legs are going to be critical for both clubs.

This feels especially important for Roma who are perhaps not the best travellers in the Champions League. They had won 7 in a row at home in the competition before losing to Real Madrid in the Group Stage, but the away form has been miserable with 7 losses from their last 8 in the Champions League.

Roma have been a little out of sync domestically which raises some doubts about them, but they have remained steady at home and have won 4 of 6 here since the loss to Real Madrid. They have scored plenty of goals in those games and I think the play will be dominated by Roma in this First Leg.

However that may leave them vulnerable to the counter attack and Porto do have the kind of players in the final third who can spring quickly and cause huge damage when they exploit spaces left by teams. The goals scored in the wins at Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray shows how dangerous Porto can be, while they have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and that has to be respected.

Porto won in Rome in August 2016 as the home team fell apart when two men were sent off, but I do give this current Roma team the narrow edge in this First Leg.

As much as Porto need to be respected for their away run in the Champions League, they have just been struggling for goals in recent away games domestically and this should be a step up in terms of quality. Backing Roma on the Asian Handicap at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw and that is the selection I recommend in this one.


Ajax v Real Madrid Pick: Like the Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain tie, this feels like another that would have had a different feeling if the matches had been played in December when the draw was made rather than in February.

Ajax had just been through a tough Group Stage unbeaten and had held Bayern Munich to draws at home and away, while Real Madrid almost looked lost with their inconsistent performances and some difficult defeats to absorb.

Now the three time defending Champions League Winners look to be rounding back into form as the concentration picks up from the players into February. Real Madrid have been in fine form in recent games and their performance in the draw at Barcelona and win at Atletico Madrid suggest the players are locked in and ready for another strong Champions League run.

There is no doubting Ajax can make it tough for Real Madrid considering they are unbeaten in 30 at home in all competitions. They have won 5 of their 6 home Champions League games this season and Ajax had their chances to beat Bayern Munich in both games in the Group.

However they have come out of their Winter Break in erratic form having lost 2 and won 2 of 5 games played. Both defeats came away from home, but this is another step up in terms of a test for a young team and I think it is going to be difficult for Ajax to contain Real Madrid in the form they are in.

I think Ajax can play their part and they have shown they can score plenty of goals, but they also concede too many. Real Madrid look like they have turned a corner in terms of focus as we head into the final three months of the season and I think that change in mentality will see them battle hard and find a way to earn the win in Amsterdam to set them up for a place in the Quarter Final.

Real Madrid have been very good away from home in the Champions League having won 10 of their last 13 on their travels. They have scored at least twice in each of those wins too and I will back them to win here in a game that features two or more goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Over the years the feeling has been that the Knock Out Rounds of the big European competitions will develop into chess matches as managers try and minimise damage to their own teams as the first priority.

It does feel like there has been a shift in the approach of many over the last couple of years though and now teams look to get on the front foot and score the goals to take them through the Rounds.

In the 2014/15 season 14/29 matches finished with less than three goals in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds and that number has moved to 16, 9 and then 5 in the next three seasons.

Last season there were plenty of goals scored in the Knock Out Rounds and while VAR may have an impact against that, I do think the teams involved in the Champions League are much more known for positive, attacking play than strong arm defensive tactics.

Tottenham Hotspur versus Borussia Dortmund certainly feels like the making of two high-scoring fixtures as they meet in the First Leg in London on Wednesday evening. The home team have the onus to get forward and have a lead to take to Dortmund next month, while Borussia Dortmund are a real attacking threat mixed in with some defensive vulnerabilities.

The two previous matches between these clubs at Wembley Stadium in 2016 and 2017 both featured at least three goals and I do think there is enough quality in the final third to reach that number again. Keeping a clean sheet longs a long shot for either team on current form and I think there will be enough chances in this one to see at least three goals shared out despite the age old feeling that the First Leg of these ties can be feeling out affairs.

In the last three seasons only 8/24 First Legs have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and I don't think this will be one of those. Before Tottenham Hotspur's 1-0 win over Inter Milan their last 7 home Champions League games had ended with at least three goals shared out.

The Borussia Dortmund away games in the Group Stage did all end with two or fewer goals shared out, but they are not defending too well at the moment and I will look for three or more goals to be scored on Wednesday evening.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal Pick: This is not quite the time for Unai Emery to hitch his wagon to either the Europa League or trying to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but the manager will be keen to keep both avenues open for a return to the Champions League. His previous successes in the Europa League means the manager knows what needs to be done to progress from these Knock Out ties and Arsenal may also benefit from being out of the FA Cup as that means a free weekend to rest coming up.

With that in mind I would expect a strong Arsenal team to be selected in this First Leg as they look to get into a comfortable position in the tie before the Second Leg back at home next week. The team Unai Emery selected in the Group game in Lisbon against Sporting showed he is willing to play key players in the Europa League to make sure the job is done and I think that could be the case here with that free weekend next up.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may not be risked as he recovers from an illness, but the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Alex Iwobi and Alexandre Lacazette could be taken to Belarus and that would give Arsenal a real edge in this First Leg.

BATE Borisov have made it through to the Knock Out Rounds of a European competition for the first time so have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them. They pushed Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat to them in the Group Stage, but I do think they are dealing with a difficult situation as they play this tie in the middle of their Winter Break and the inexperience of building match fitness to be ready for this time of the year may cost the home team.

They have also suffered 3 losses to PSV Eindhoven, PAOK and Chelsea in Europe already this season and Arsenal have won 7 of 10 away Europa League games over the last eighteen months. One of those was the 2-4 win at BATE Borisov and I think Unai Emery selects a team that can give them a big advantage for the home Leg and thus allow him to rest one or two more key names ahead of the return of the Premier League the following weekend.

I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap and secure a fourth away win in the Europa League this week.


Celtic v Valencia Pick: Getting to play in any of the European competitions after Christmas is a big achievement for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers will be looking for his players to use the domestic momentum to try and surprise one of the favourites to win the Europa League.

Any chance of that happening will have seen the foundations of the upset laid at home and Celtic are going to have their chances to at least have a lead to take to Spain next week. It won't be easy with the squad being stretched by injuries, but Valencia are anything but convincing away from home and Celtic can cause them one or two problems.

Valencia have been tough to beat in recent games, but they have not been winning too many themselves and that makes it hard to see them as a pretty short favourite to win at a tough ground like Celtic Park. They were recently leading 0-2 at Barcelona in an eventual 2-2 draw, but Valencia have not travelled well in European games over the last few years and that includes failing to win as a favourite at Basel and Young Boys.

Some will suggest Celtic are arguably weaker than both of those Swiss teams, but they are still a tough out at home. Brendan Rodgers' style does leave Celtic more open than you would perhaps like against some of the better teams in Europe, but that style can also see them put Valencia under pressure and I think they will be roared on passionately by the supporters on Thursday.

The Celtic players can have a chance to express their love for the supporters on Valentines' Day by producing a big performance and at least avoiding defeat in the First Leg. They have been playing well enough at Celtic Park to think they can do that and I am not convinced Valencia will be pushing for a winner if they are holding a draw going into the last fifteen minutes of this one.


Malmo v Chelsea Pick: The Europa League is certainly going to be seen as a potential route back into the Champions League by the fans of Arsenal and Chelsea who both sit outside the top four of the Premier League as this competition resumes.

Maurizio Sarri has to be feeling the pressure to deliver Champions League Football back to Stamford Bridge and that will only have increased after yet another capitulation from his team away from home. This time it was at Manchester City as Chelsea were embarrassed 6-0 by the defending Champions on Sunday and the Italian manager has to be looking for an immediate reaction.

Chelsea have been in miserable form away from home though and this tie comes in the midst of a very tough run. The Blues have played at Manchester City and next face Manchester United in the FA Cup, Manchester City again, this time in the League Cup Final, and then Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.

That won't be enough of an excuse if Chelsea are not able to see off Malmo over two Legs and I don't think they will slip up against the Swedish team who have not played a competitive game since early December. However I do think Chelsea could be given some problems to deal with in the First Leg in Sweden where Malmo have a long unbeaten run and have also not lost any of their last 8 European games.

The majority of those games have been against teams far weaker than Chelsea though and even the changes expected to be made to the away team should not affect their chances of winning this fixture. It might make it a slightly tighter game though and I do think Chelsea will be pretty content if they don't lose here which means the Manchester United game on Monday could be the priority for them.

A team containing Andreas Christensen, Ross Barkley, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Willian and Olivier Giroud should do enough to manage Malmo and Chelsea have done that in the Europa League this season having secured two narrow wins and a draw away from home in the Group.

Malmo will likely be competitive even if they fall short of the quality needed to beat Chelsea on the day. That should give them a chance to at least keep this close with the start on the Asian Handicap appealing enough to back them considering Chelsea's form and likely team changes made.

There is a concern that Chelsea will put all their form together and earn a big win in Sweden on Thursday, but there aren't too many sweet nothings being whispered between the manager and the players and I don't foresee a St Valentines' Massacre being produced by Chelsea in the First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win & Both Teams to Score @ 4.00 Bet Fred
Roma - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor
Real Madrid Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Celtic + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Malmo + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor