Midweek Football Picks 2019 (October 1-3)

Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes centre stage during the week and I am looking to open up October in the same fashion in which September ended.

It was a much stronger month than August, and it was good to wipe out the poor first month of the 2019/20 season. I do want to kick on now and really start producing some strong returns to move forward and the few selections during this week will hopefully begin to do that.


I had wrote a short piece about Manchester United prior to their League Cup win over Rochdale which can be read here. They have an important game in the Europa League this week and a win would mean Manchester United can start thinking about Qualifying for the Last 32 with a couple of games to spare and that is important for a thin squad that will need some rest ahead of the busy December period that all English clubs face.


Onto the Champions League Picks from Match Day 2 and the update to the season totals below.


Real Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: You don't want to completely rule out Club Brugge causing problems for Real Madrid considering how they played in the Group Stage of the Champions League twelve months ago. Atletico Madrid needed late goals to see them off and Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a draw with them at home, while Real Madrid seem to be playing with some vulnerable confidence at the moment.

Even then it is hard to see Real Madrid doing anything but bouncing back after the 3-0 defeat in Paris on Match Day 1. They have looked very good in the League since that defeat to move to the top of the Spanish top flight, and Real Madrid have shown some resiliency with 3 clean sheets in a row.

The return of Nacho and Sergio Ramos will help and I do think Real Madrid are very dangerous at home where they are looking to snap a run of consecutive Champions League defeats. The side have scored at least twice in their last couple of wins here overall and Real Madrid should be able to get on the front foot against Club Brugge who were beaten heavily at Salzburg in the Europa League Last 32 last season.

Club Brugge will be playing with the belief of a team that is unbeaten in 14 games to open the 2019/20 season, but that may not be enough. They can create chances here with the spaces Real Madrid tend to leave behind when getting forward, but I am not sure it will be enough to really challenge a team who want to get this Group back on the right track.

Last season late goals saw Atletico Madrid pull clear of Club Brugge and I think Real Madrid will match that margin of victory.


Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really did fancy Paris Saint-Germain to get the better of Real Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage, but injuries to the front three tempered by enthusiasm for them. It ultimately proved to be little problem for the French Champions who deservedly won on the day and Paris Saint-Germain have to be looking to secure a Last 16 place as soon as possible.

Wins over Galatasaray and then in the double header with Club Brugge over the next month will put Paris Saint-Germain through to the Last 16 and I do think they are capable of doing that.

Both away games will be difficult beginning with this trip to Istanbul, but Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of their 12 away Champions League Group games and they have also won back to back away games in the competition overall at Crvena Zvezda and Manchester United.

Playing in Istanbul is rarely an easy task for any team in European Football and Galatasaray are unbeaten in 14 at home in all competitions. That has to be respected, but both Porto and Benfica won here in the Champions League and Europa League respectively last season and this Paris Saint-Germain team are stronger than those two even without Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

This won't always be easy for Paris Saint-Germain, but they have been defending well enough in recent away games to lay the foundation for success here. The chances created in Bordeaux is encouraging even if they have been lacking goals away from home and I think there is enough here to back Paris Saint-Germain to record a good looking win on the night and earn their third away win in a row in the Champions League.


Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The layers are not going to be offering anything too short in terms of a margin of victory for Manchester City in this fixture and I am not surprised when you think of the amount of goals the English Champions have been scoring. It is very difficult to see how Dinamo Zagreb are going to keep it competitive against a team who have scored four or more goals in 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games.

The win over Atalanta will make Dinamo Zagreb believe, but that was at home and this is a club who have lost 12 away games in a row in the Champions League Group Stage. A lot of those defeats have been by wide margins and I think Manchester City have rested enough big name players to believe they are going to produce a very strong win in this one.

It is a big Asian Handicap though and it will need a three goal margin of victory to secure a full payout, but I would be surprised if Manchester City did not win by that margin. The defensive problems are a concern as one goal for the visitors would make it very difficult to see how Manchester City can cover the number, but I think Dinamo Zagreb will soon see this as a damage limitation exercise.

Fast starts have been common for Manchester City since the 3-2 defeat to Norwich City and they have scored within 25 minutes in each of the four wins since then. Another one would set them up for a big win on Tuesday and put Manchester City in a very strong position to Qualify and win this Group before the end of November.

I think Dinamo Zagreb will find their 4-0 win over Atalanta on Match Day 1 has not really prepared them for a test like this and Manchester City can win easily enough on the day.


Barcelona v Inter Milan Pick: It sounds like Barcelona will have some attacking players back in contention for a starting spot for the Match Day 2 game in the Champions League, although Lionel Messi is a doubt.

Both Barcelona and Inter Milan drew their opening Champions League games which has increased the importance of this one as they look to get going in a difficult looking Group. The Barcelona draw in Dortmund certainly looks more positive than the home draw Inter Milan had with Slavia Prague and I do think the Italian club are built for success domestically and perhaps not in the European competitions.

Inter Milan appointed Antonio Conte to break the Juventus domination of Serie A and the manager has had his best successes in domestic competitions. He has struggled for an impact in the Champions League and Inter Milan looked short of ideas in their home draw with Slavia Prague.

Now they have to face a Barcelona team that remain very strong at home and who have won 29 of 32 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League. A Lionel Messi-less Barcelona beat Inter Milan 2-0 here last season and I think they can do the same on Wednesday on Match Day 2 of the Group Stage this time around too.

Barcelona have been scoring plenty of goals at home and they should be able to break down an Inter Milan team who do have questions to answer at the back. The Italian side will head to Spain with some confidence from their League form and they do have attacking players to make a difference, but Barcelona should be too strong on the day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is the selection.


Lille v Chelsea Pick: Both Lille and Chelsea were beaten on Match Day 1 of the Champions League which means this could be a vital game for both in their bids to get Qualification to the Last 16 back on track.

This should be a good match with both Lille and Chelsea capable of playing impressive attacking football while perhaps not looking as secure at the back as they would like.

Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every away game played under Frank Lampard and Lille have managed two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 home games going back to last season. All four played this season have seen Lille hit that mark so they will feel they can get hurt their visitors on Match Day 2.

On the other side Chelsea have scored eight goals in their last couple of away games and played well on their travels in the Europa League last season. The Blues have scored at least three goals in their last 2 away games at Norwich City and Wolves, and I do think they can challenge a Lille team who won't have faced too many teams of the quality of Chelsea on a regular basis.

Both teams will feel they can get on the scoreboard here and the importance of the three points should help encourage an attacking and expansive game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call here.


Liverpool v Salzburg Pick: This has the makings of a really good Champions League game with the approach that both Liverpool and Salzburg will take to the game.

While many teams will head to Anfield and look to be tight and well organised defensively, Salzburg have shown in the last couple of years in the Europa League that they are willing to take chances with their attacking play. Last season they were beaten 3-0 in Naples in the Europa League Last 16, but Salzburg created plenty of good chances of their own and they must recognise that the Liverpool defence is not playing as well as it was last season.

The absence of Alisson does leave Liverpool a little vulnerable at the back, but attacking this team at Anfield can expose defences to the much vaunted front three who should all be starting for the home team. Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have the perfect blend of pace and creativity in the final third and I do expect they will be in a position to hurt Salzburg in this one too.

Liverpool have been very strong at Anfield and 10 of their last 11 here have ended with wins by two or more goals. They also have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the Champions League and I do think the defeat in Napoli on Match Day 1 will focus the players for a big performance here.

I would not be surprised if Salzburg score here, but I think their attacking intent will leave them open to the home team too. It could be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals when two attacking teams take the field, but at the end of the fixture I would expect Liverpool have won by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lille-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 19-21)

The Champions League opening games might have been good ones for the neutral, but it wasn't much fun for Manchester United fans after suffering a home loss to Paris Saint-Germain that puts them firmly behind the black ball as far as progressing to the Quarter Finals goes.

That's something that will be revisited next month when United head to Paris and try and overturn the big advantage Paris Saint-Germain have built up, but the French Champions have had some memorable Champions League collapses before so you just never know.


This week it is the turn of the two biggest United rivals to get on with the opening of their Last 16 Champions League ties, while both Arsenal and Chelsea aim to put themselves into the hat for the Europa League Last 16 draw which takes place on Friday. Even though Arsenal were beaten in the First Leg, I would expect both of those clubs to find their way through to the next Round in what may soon become their best pathway back into the Champions League much like it was for Manchester United in the 2016/17 season.


The Premier League is going to be back this weekend, but fixtures begin on Friday so the Fantasy Football thread with the weekend selections will be ready to go around six hours before the FPL deadline on the day.


Liverpool v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Last 16 draw has pitted together three ties involving English Premier League clubs taking on Bundesliga representatives and this is the second of those three ties.

Last week Tottenham Hotspur weathered an early Borussia Dortmund storm and then cruised into a 3-0 lead against the Bundesliga leaders, but Dortmund might just be going through a sticky patch. That isn't the case as much for Bayern Munich who have been scoring goals and producing plenty of wins to close the gap on the leaders in Germany and also give themselves real momentum going into the First Leg of this Second Round tie.

They face a rested Liverpool team whose primary focus may be winning the Premier League title, but who showed they are a dangerous Champions League team on their run to the Final last season. While some would suggest Liverpool ignore all Cup competitions and solely focus on the League, Jurgen Klopp won't want to lose to a team from the Bundesliga and Liverpool should have had ample time to prepare for this tie.

The absence of Virgil Van Dijk is a real blow for Liverpool considering the strength he has helped impose at the back. That may leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's attacking play, but I also think Liverpool have players in the final third that will scare the Bavarian giants and who have to be respected.

Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals and have a long unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League. In their 8 games unbeaten, Bayern Munich have scored in each one and also beaten the likes of Sevilla and drawn at Real Madrid in a game they could have easily won on another day.

It makes me believe they can play their part in this First Leg, but my lean has been to Liverpool to have a lead to take to Germany next month. Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League games including the last 5 in a row, and one of the exceptions was a goalless draw with Porto in this Round twelve months ago after Liverpool had crushed them in Portugal.

Liverpool score plenty of goals at home in the Champions League and I think they edge out a high-scoring game which leaves the Second Leg with all to play for. The best play on the day may be backing Liverpool to win the First Leg in which both teams hit the net and that has to be worth a small interest.


Lyon v Barcelona Pick: A few days ago the layers were thinking about giving Lyon a full goal head-start on the Asian Handicap for this Last 16 First Leg tie and I would have been very keen to select the French side as the right play in this fixture.

Things have just changed slightly so while Lyon are getting a start, they are not getting the full goal which means a one goal loss would see half the stake refunded and the other half settled as a loser.

It worries me slightly, but I really do think Lyon have the talent and the confidence to earn a positive result in the First Leg of this Champions League tie, although Barcelona should be too strong over two Legs.

Lyon's recent home form in the Champions League is a worry with a single win from 10 games they have hosted in this competition, but only Juventus have managed to win from the last 6 visitors. Manchester City had massive problems dealing with Lyon in the Group Stage and I do think the confidence of the talented players the French side have can at least put Barcelona under pressure here.

They are also facing a Barcelona team who had won 1 of 7 away Champions League games prior to this season, although they did beat Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven on their travels in the Group. The win over PSV was a narrow one though and Barcelona are a team that are vulnerable away from the Nou Camp and I do think Lyon can take advantage of a team that has not been in the best form of late.

Lyon have drawn with Manchester City and beaten Paris Saint-Germain here and scored twice in both games. If they reach that number again I don't think they lose and I am not always convinced about Barcelona away from home despite the obvious talent they have.

Barcelona would likely be very happy with a score draw here and I will select Lyon with the start to get something from the First Leg.


Atletico Madrid v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties in the Champions League I do think the Atletico Madrid versus Juventus one is the toughest to call.

Both teams will play with a similar ambition in this one with neither wanting to give too much away and hoping for magic from their forward players.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns to Madrid for the first time since leaving Real Madrid and I am sure he is going to get a very 'warm' reception from the Atletico fans. He has provided the magic moments to help beat Atletico Madrid a number of times in the Champions League during his time with Real Madrid and looks to be the main Juventus threat on the pitch.

Antoine Griezmann will be looking to spark Atletico Madrid who would love to be playing the Champions League Final in their home Stadium in June.

Neither team has been in outstanding form which does make this tie that much tougher to call, although my lean is that home advantage in the Second Leg will be the critical factor and give Juventus the chance to edge through to the Quarter Final.

First they have to concentrate on this Leg and Juventus have been very good away from home in the Champions League in the last twelve months. During that time they have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, Valencia and Manchester United and so you have to think that Juventus will be feeling good about their chances here.

However Atletico Madrid have a very strong home record with 8 straight home European wins including beating the likes of Roma and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. I really am having a hard time separating the teams and this is a tie that could be decided by an outstanding piece of skill to break down two organised defences.

I don't think either will want to give too much away in the First Leg though and backing a draw might be worth a small interest on the day.


Schalke v Manchester City Pick: At this moment the layers are taking no chances with the Manchester City prices to win games of football and that has seen them being asked to cover some big handicaps as short priced favourites.

A week ago Manchester City were the favourites to win here, but they have seen that price shrink after resting key players in the win over Newport County on Saturday. All of those big names are expected back in the Champions League and you can't really argue that the expectation is that Manchester City are going to win this First Leg simply on current form.

Schalke have played better at home, but they are a team struggling in the Bundesliga and the style of play should work to Manchester City's advantage. The home team will know their best chance of upsetting the favourites in this tie is by winning the Home Leg and that should leave spaces for the speed of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to expose.

Manchester City have already won in Hoffenheim in the Group and I suggest this task is perhaps a slightly more 'easier' one for them as long as they focus. You have to respect every team when they are hosting the fixture, but Manchester City have the talent edge and I can see them opening up Schalke whenever the Bundesliga club come forward.

Schalke have lost 3 of their last 4 home games against Premier League opposition all 3 losses came by two or more goals. They have lost 6 home Bundesliga games and 4 of those have come by at least two goal margins, while Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away Champions League fixtures and 4 of those have come by two or more goals.

I can't see beyond a Manchester City win here and I think they will do it with room to spare and make the Second Leg little more than a formality to progress to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.75 Bet Victor
Lyon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Atletico Madrid-Juventus Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 12-14)

The Champions League is back this week as the first half of the Last 16 First Legs are played on Tuesday and Wednesday before the second half of those ties commence next Tuesday.

The Europa League has an extra Knock Out Round to negotiate than the Champions League so the entire Last 32 ties will be completed over the next ten days before the draw for the Last 16 is made and those ties are set to go in early March. That will be the same time as the Champions League Last 16 Second Legs are played.


With a number of the big name teams all getting through to the Last 16 of the Champions League it does mean we have been rewarded with some mouth-watering ties. The neutrals are going to really be in a position to enjoy those the most, but for fans of the clubs involved it can be an exciting and tense time.

As a Manchester United fan I certainly feel like the Last 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain is the pick of the Round, especially with the changes that have happened at Old Trafford since the day the draw was put together. Jose Mourinho was still in charge of Manchester United that Monday morning after the Liverpool defeat, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over a day later and Manchester United have responded with a fantastic run and are now narrow underdogs against PSG.

The French Champions are missing Neymar and Edinson Cavani for the First Leg which will only encourage United fans even more, but my gut feeling is that Paris are going to be a little too good over two Legs. I don't think they will have it easy though and if United can take a two goal lead to the French capital I may change my mind, but my feeling is that we are going to see two high-scoring games and Paris Saint-Germain may still be slightly stronger.

There is pressure on them to perform though considering the open secret of the owners prioritising the Champions League and a third straight Last 16 exit would be a huge blow for the club. Manchester United seem to have less to lose and that may be a factor that helps them earn the upset and book a spot in the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time since David Moyes was manager of the club.

Two of the other English clubs involved in the Second Round are also involved in good looking ties on paper- Tottenham Hotspur are battling through injuries as they host Borussia Dortmund in the First Leg, while Liverpool take on defending German Champions Bayern Munich.

I really believe both clubs have a very good chance of progressing, but they have to have leads to take to Germany next month if they are going to do that. My feeling is that the Premier League clubs will just have a little too much for the Bundesliga ones over two Legs, although I am sure some Liverpool fans won't begrudge going out of the competition if it enhances their chances of winning the Premier League.

Manchester City received the easiest of the Second Round ties, but they were the only English Group Winners so they deserve the reward of facing Schalke who are struggling in the Bundesliga. A sweep of the German top flight by English teams is a genuine possibility in the Second Round which would not be welcomed by the Bundesliga.


Real Madrid and Barcelona should be comfortable in making it through to yet another Champions League Quarter Final when they meet Ajax and Lyon respectively. Both of the underdogs impressed in the Group Stage, but things tend to be ramped up at this stage of the Champions League and the two Spanish clubs are amongst the favourites to win the top prize again. Those two teams have won the last five Champions League titles since Bayern Munich in 2013 and good luck if you're opposing them to continue that trend.


No disrespect to Roma and Porto, but the winner of that Second Round tie is going to be the team that the other seven who make it through to the Last Eight will be hoping to draw in the next Round. The edge has to be given to Roma after their Semi Final run last season, even if the team is not as strong this time around, and it would be a real surprise if either of these teams would make it beyond the Quarter Final.

Finally the Italian Champions Juventus look to take the next step in the Champions League having finished Runners Up in two of the last four seasons. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a breathtaking goal against Manchester United in the Group Stage, but the big investment was made in the striker to perform now and Juventus are hoping he can be the differential having lost some tight matches in recent years.

They meet Atletico Madrid in the Second Round in what looks a tactically fascinating match, although perhaps not one for those who like seeing high-scoring games of football. Atletico Madrid are another club who have come very, very close to winning the Champions League in recent years and they have the confidence of winning the Europa League last season behind them, but I can't help feel that Diego Simeone's window to win the top European competition has just shut a little bit.

Atletico Madrid should be highly motivated to reach the Final which is being played in their magnificent new Stadium, but I am leaning towards Juventus making it through this difficult tie especially with home advantage in the Second Leg.


The Europa League is also back this week as I have mentioned and that means the British interest is with Arsenal, Chelsea and Celtic.

After recent performances in the Premier League, both London clubs might just be taking a second look at the Europa League as the way to get back into the Champions League. It is far too early to think Arsenal or Chelsea prioritise the Europa League over the Premier League, but it is important for both teams to make it through to the Last 16 and keep two paths into the top European competition open going into March.

They face BATE Borisov and Malmo respectively and I won't be writing anything controversial by suggesting Arsenal and Chelsea are huge favourites to make it through those ties. The situation is clearer for Arsenal who face BATE Borisov twice over an eight day period without any fixtures in between, but Chelsea have to play Malmo around the Monday night FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Manchester United so Maurizio Sarri has to find the right blend in those games while also dealing with the fallout from the 6-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City.

Brendan Rodgers will be happy to take his Celtic team into European competition after Christmas which has long been the target for him. They failed to make it into the Champions League Group Stage for the first time under the former Liverpool manager and Celtic rode their luck to edge out Leipzig in the Europa League Group. Now they face a tough test from the Primera Division in Spain as they meet Valencia who only just finished behind Manchester United in the Champions League Group Stage back in December.

Most have Valencia down as a pretty big favourite to progress, but a good result in the First Leg could give Celtic a chance against a goal-shy opponent. It's still a long shot but Celtic have nothing to lose in a tie where they are a heavy underdog and the First Leg at Celtic Park is going to produce a top atmosphere like many of their European home nights tend to do.


Below you can read my thoughts and selections as to how I believe the European ties being played this week are going to go. The big one is on Tuesday night at Old Trafford, but the rest of the week has some good looking action too before we move into the FA Cup Fifth Round ties being played over the upcoming weekend.


Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: When the draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League was made in mid-December the initial reaction from the oddsmakers were that Paris Saint-Germain were going to be strong favourites to see off Manchester United.

At that time Manchester United had just been hammered 3-1 at Liverpool and Jose Mourinho was still in charge, but the last two months have seen things change drastically.

Now the players are performing with confidence and 10 wins from 11 games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer means they come into this tie with a lot of belief they can see off one of the Champions League favourites. Things have also changed for Paris Saint-Germain, but those changes have been far less positive with news that two of the vaunted front three could miss the First Leg.

Neymar is almost certainly out of both Legs, but Edinson Cavani suffered a knock which makes him a doubt for the game at Old Trafford too.

Before United fans get too carried away I do think Paris Saint-Germain still have plenty of quality going forward and Manchester United have looked far from secure defensively. However the positive attitude of Solskjaer has rubbed off on the players and their confidence getting forward should give Manchester United plenty of chances to try and expose a Paris Saint-Germain defence which has had problems in the Champions League in recent years.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Paris Saint-Germain have conceded at least two goals at Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Liverpool in the Champions League. The last four clubs all scored at least three home goals against Paris Saint-Germain and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough and have enough pace in the final third to at least get at their visitors.

Keeping the backdoor shut won't be easy even though PSG are without Neymar and possibly without Cavani.

With that in mind we could see one of the more entertaining ties in the Last 16 of the Champions League. Both Legs should see goals being scored and I believe it is going to be a tie that should be pleasing on the eye for the neutrals tuning in.

Paris Saint-Germain have a pretty poor record in England having won 1 of their last 9 visits across the Channel. They have been beaten in this country in half of their 6 visits since 2014 and I think Manchester United can add to that record.

I imagine the tie will still be very much alive when they reconvene in Paris next month, but I am going to back Manchester United to have a lead going into the Second Leg.

It is hard to imagine PSG leaving Old Trafford without a goal though and so I will have a small interest in Manchester United to win a game in which both teams score. Paris Saint-Germain still have enough of a threat in the final third to pose Manchester United problems and 1 clean sheet in 7 games at Old Trafford makes it hard to believe they can keep one here.

The French Champions have also scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 visits to England in the Champions League including twice at Liverpool in the Group Stage and so backing Manchester United to win a game where both teams score looks a very big price and worth a small interest.

Of course I would love United to win this one 4-0, but my head is ruling my heart with this selection from a fascinating Last 16 tie.


Roma v Porto Pick: The Champions League is always going to be a very important competition for clubs around Europe and this looks like a tie that both Roma and Porto will appreciate as they try and reach the Quarter Final of the tournament.

It is not one in which you can clearly pick who will make it through to the Last Eight and I do think the home Legs are going to be critical for both clubs.

This feels especially important for Roma who are perhaps not the best travellers in the Champions League. They had won 7 in a row at home in the competition before losing to Real Madrid in the Group Stage, but the away form has been miserable with 7 losses from their last 8 in the Champions League.

Roma have been a little out of sync domestically which raises some doubts about them, but they have remained steady at home and have won 4 of 6 here since the loss to Real Madrid. They have scored plenty of goals in those games and I think the play will be dominated by Roma in this First Leg.

However that may leave them vulnerable to the counter attack and Porto do have the kind of players in the final third who can spring quickly and cause huge damage when they exploit spaces left by teams. The goals scored in the wins at Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray shows how dangerous Porto can be, while they have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and that has to be respected.

Porto won in Rome in August 2016 as the home team fell apart when two men were sent off, but I do give this current Roma team the narrow edge in this First Leg.

As much as Porto need to be respected for their away run in the Champions League, they have just been struggling for goals in recent away games domestically and this should be a step up in terms of quality. Backing Roma on the Asian Handicap at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw and that is the selection I recommend in this one.


Ajax v Real Madrid Pick: Like the Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain tie, this feels like another that would have had a different feeling if the matches had been played in December when the draw was made rather than in February.

Ajax had just been through a tough Group Stage unbeaten and had held Bayern Munich to draws at home and away, while Real Madrid almost looked lost with their inconsistent performances and some difficult defeats to absorb.

Now the three time defending Champions League Winners look to be rounding back into form as the concentration picks up from the players into February. Real Madrid have been in fine form in recent games and their performance in the draw at Barcelona and win at Atletico Madrid suggest the players are locked in and ready for another strong Champions League run.

There is no doubting Ajax can make it tough for Real Madrid considering they are unbeaten in 30 at home in all competitions. They have won 5 of their 6 home Champions League games this season and Ajax had their chances to beat Bayern Munich in both games in the Group.

However they have come out of their Winter Break in erratic form having lost 2 and won 2 of 5 games played. Both defeats came away from home, but this is another step up in terms of a test for a young team and I think it is going to be difficult for Ajax to contain Real Madrid in the form they are in.

I think Ajax can play their part and they have shown they can score plenty of goals, but they also concede too many. Real Madrid look like they have turned a corner in terms of focus as we head into the final three months of the season and I think that change in mentality will see them battle hard and find a way to earn the win in Amsterdam to set them up for a place in the Quarter Final.

Real Madrid have been very good away from home in the Champions League having won 10 of their last 13 on their travels. They have scored at least twice in each of those wins too and I will back them to win here in a game that features two or more goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Over the years the feeling has been that the Knock Out Rounds of the big European competitions will develop into chess matches as managers try and minimise damage to their own teams as the first priority.

It does feel like there has been a shift in the approach of many over the last couple of years though and now teams look to get on the front foot and score the goals to take them through the Rounds.

In the 2014/15 season 14/29 matches finished with less than three goals in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds and that number has moved to 16, 9 and then 5 in the next three seasons.

Last season there were plenty of goals scored in the Knock Out Rounds and while VAR may have an impact against that, I do think the teams involved in the Champions League are much more known for positive, attacking play than strong arm defensive tactics.

Tottenham Hotspur versus Borussia Dortmund certainly feels like the making of two high-scoring fixtures as they meet in the First Leg in London on Wednesday evening. The home team have the onus to get forward and have a lead to take to Dortmund next month, while Borussia Dortmund are a real attacking threat mixed in with some defensive vulnerabilities.

The two previous matches between these clubs at Wembley Stadium in 2016 and 2017 both featured at least three goals and I do think there is enough quality in the final third to reach that number again. Keeping a clean sheet longs a long shot for either team on current form and I think there will be enough chances in this one to see at least three goals shared out despite the age old feeling that the First Leg of these ties can be feeling out affairs.

In the last three seasons only 8/24 First Legs have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and I don't think this will be one of those. Before Tottenham Hotspur's 1-0 win over Inter Milan their last 7 home Champions League games had ended with at least three goals shared out.

The Borussia Dortmund away games in the Group Stage did all end with two or fewer goals shared out, but they are not defending too well at the moment and I will look for three or more goals to be scored on Wednesday evening.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal Pick: This is not quite the time for Unai Emery to hitch his wagon to either the Europa League or trying to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but the manager will be keen to keep both avenues open for a return to the Champions League. His previous successes in the Europa League means the manager knows what needs to be done to progress from these Knock Out ties and Arsenal may also benefit from being out of the FA Cup as that means a free weekend to rest coming up.

With that in mind I would expect a strong Arsenal team to be selected in this First Leg as they look to get into a comfortable position in the tie before the Second Leg back at home next week. The team Unai Emery selected in the Group game in Lisbon against Sporting showed he is willing to play key players in the Europa League to make sure the job is done and I think that could be the case here with that free weekend next up.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may not be risked as he recovers from an illness, but the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Alex Iwobi and Alexandre Lacazette could be taken to Belarus and that would give Arsenal a real edge in this First Leg.

BATE Borisov have made it through to the Knock Out Rounds of a European competition for the first time so have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them. They pushed Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat to them in the Group Stage, but I do think they are dealing with a difficult situation as they play this tie in the middle of their Winter Break and the inexperience of building match fitness to be ready for this time of the year may cost the home team.

They have also suffered 3 losses to PSV Eindhoven, PAOK and Chelsea in Europe already this season and Arsenal have won 7 of 10 away Europa League games over the last eighteen months. One of those was the 2-4 win at BATE Borisov and I think Unai Emery selects a team that can give them a big advantage for the home Leg and thus allow him to rest one or two more key names ahead of the return of the Premier League the following weekend.

I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap and secure a fourth away win in the Europa League this week.


Celtic v Valencia Pick: Getting to play in any of the European competitions after Christmas is a big achievement for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers will be looking for his players to use the domestic momentum to try and surprise one of the favourites to win the Europa League.

Any chance of that happening will have seen the foundations of the upset laid at home and Celtic are going to have their chances to at least have a lead to take to Spain next week. It won't be easy with the squad being stretched by injuries, but Valencia are anything but convincing away from home and Celtic can cause them one or two problems.

Valencia have been tough to beat in recent games, but they have not been winning too many themselves and that makes it hard to see them as a pretty short favourite to win at a tough ground like Celtic Park. They were recently leading 0-2 at Barcelona in an eventual 2-2 draw, but Valencia have not travelled well in European games over the last few years and that includes failing to win as a favourite at Basel and Young Boys.

Some will suggest Celtic are arguably weaker than both of those Swiss teams, but they are still a tough out at home. Brendan Rodgers' style does leave Celtic more open than you would perhaps like against some of the better teams in Europe, but that style can also see them put Valencia under pressure and I think they will be roared on passionately by the supporters on Thursday.

The Celtic players can have a chance to express their love for the supporters on Valentines' Day by producing a big performance and at least avoiding defeat in the First Leg. They have been playing well enough at Celtic Park to think they can do that and I am not convinced Valencia will be pushing for a winner if they are holding a draw going into the last fifteen minutes of this one.


Malmo v Chelsea Pick: The Europa League is certainly going to be seen as a potential route back into the Champions League by the fans of Arsenal and Chelsea who both sit outside the top four of the Premier League as this competition resumes.

Maurizio Sarri has to be feeling the pressure to deliver Champions League Football back to Stamford Bridge and that will only have increased after yet another capitulation from his team away from home. This time it was at Manchester City as Chelsea were embarrassed 6-0 by the defending Champions on Sunday and the Italian manager has to be looking for an immediate reaction.

Chelsea have been in miserable form away from home though and this tie comes in the midst of a very tough run. The Blues have played at Manchester City and next face Manchester United in the FA Cup, Manchester City again, this time in the League Cup Final, and then Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.

That won't be enough of an excuse if Chelsea are not able to see off Malmo over two Legs and I don't think they will slip up against the Swedish team who have not played a competitive game since early December. However I do think Chelsea could be given some problems to deal with in the First Leg in Sweden where Malmo have a long unbeaten run and have also not lost any of their last 8 European games.

The majority of those games have been against teams far weaker than Chelsea though and even the changes expected to be made to the away team should not affect their chances of winning this fixture. It might make it a slightly tighter game though and I do think Chelsea will be pretty content if they don't lose here which means the Manchester United game on Monday could be the priority for them.

A team containing Andreas Christensen, Ross Barkley, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Willian and Olivier Giroud should do enough to manage Malmo and Chelsea have done that in the Europa League this season having secured two narrow wins and a draw away from home in the Group.

Malmo will likely be competitive even if they fall short of the quality needed to beat Chelsea on the day. That should give them a chance to at least keep this close with the start on the Asian Handicap appealing enough to back them considering Chelsea's form and likely team changes made.

There is a concern that Chelsea will put all their form together and earn a big win in Sweden on Thursday, but there aren't too many sweet nothings being whispered between the manager and the players and I don't foresee a St Valentines' Massacre being produced by Chelsea in the First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win & Both Teams to Score @ 4.00 Bet Fred
Roma - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor
Real Madrid Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Celtic + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Malmo + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 2-4)

The second round of Group games in both the Champions League and Europa League are being played this midweek before one more round of top flight Football across Europe comes this weekend.

That will wrap up this section of the season as we then enter a two week international break and for Manchester United fans it will be a testing time if the side can't put together a couple of wins at Old Trafford over the next few days.

It has been a turbulent time at Carrington and I will have my next 'United Corner' piece ready to go during the international break and prior to the Premier League visit to Stamford Bridge.


It is an important week coming up for United as well as the other English clubs in European action with all of the Champions League games looking very important. Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were beaten on Match Day 1 and need to bounce back immediately, while Liverpool can take a giant step towards the Second Round if they can win in Naples.

Qualifying from the Group as soon as possible could be a big advantage for Liverpool when we get closer to the extremely busy December period especially if Manchester City are being forced to fight for their place in the Last 16. Those two clubs also meet in a big Premier League game this Sunday which will determine which of those clubs go into the second international break of the season in top spot.

The Europa League Group Stages should be very manageable for Arsenal and Chelsea who can make it two wins from two on Thursday and continue to concentrate on what has been strong starts to the Premier League campaign.


September started off poorly for the Football Picks but the second half of the month was much better meaning back to back months with a positive return. Starting off October in a strong fashion will keep the momentum rolling and you can read my Midweek Football Picks below.


Hoffenheim v Manchester City Pick: The surprising results in this Group on Match Day 1 means Hoffenheim actually come into this fixture above Manchester City whose 1-2 home loss to Lyon means they are the only team chasing their first points in this section.

There won't be a rush of people backing Manchester City to miss out on the Second Round of the Champions League after the defeat to Lyon, but they have just tightened the margin for error in the Group. They certainly can't afford a second defeat in a row in the Champions League and extend a shocking run which has seen Manchester City lose 4 straight games in this competition and become the first English side to suffer through that.

Last season Manchester City showed they can perform away from home in the Champions League with 3 wins from 4 games played outside of England. They scored four goals in each of those wins in Feyenoord, Napoli and Basel and Manchester City are coming in off 3 straight wins since the defeat to Lyon.

The knock Sergio Aguero is playing through is a slight concern, but Manchester City will have noted how tough Hoffenheim have been having it this season since Julian Nagelsmann decided he will be moving on to Leipzig to take over as manager next season.

Hoffenheim did have a 9 game unbeaten run at home come to an end with a 1-2 loss to Leipzig this weekend and they have been conceding plenty of goals. They will believe they can challenge Manchester City with the attacking intent they have displayed, but Hoffenheim's surprising 2-2 draw at Shakhtar Donetsk has not changed my mind on where I see this team in the Group.

That was a very positive result, but Manchester City are a step above Shakhtar Donetsk and I do think they will win here. Hoffenheim may play their part by causing plenty of problems for their visitors when they build up some attacking momentum, but ultimately I think the English Champions will have too much quality all around for Hoffenheim.

I think that will lead to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Juventus v Young Boys Pick: There have been some serious allegations made about Cristiano Ronaldo with the Las Vegas Police Department reinvestigating matters which have been making some headlines this week. Ronaldo won't be able to play in this fixture after being sent off on Match Day 1, but he is yet to fully invest himself in the allegations made.

Juventus will try and put any of those issues aside and concentrate on their football as they look to back up an important win over Valencia. Another on Tuesday will see the Old Lady in a very strong position to Qualify from this Group which looked quite tough on paper.

It would be a big surprise if Juventus are not good enough to beat Young Boys without Ronaldo and I am looking to back the Italian Champions to win with a comfortable margin too.

You can't ignore the fact that Juventus have never really hammered teams in the Champions League, even at home, as they make sure they do what they need to. That has seen relatively narrow wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos here in the Champions League in recent years in the Group Stage which makes it a big tougher to trust Juventus to cover this Asian Handicap.

However Young Boys showed against Manchester United that there is a real gap to bridge to the very best teams in Europe and they have particularly struggled to impose themselves away from home. They look like being the dominant team in Switzerland again this season, but I would be surprised if Young Boys are very competitive in this one and I will back Juventus to win by at least two goals on the day.


Bayern Munich v Ajax Pick: Both of these clubs have a long and positive history in the European Cup with at least four trophies won by Bayern Munich and Ajax, although the latter are some way off those standards these days.

They might be catching Bayern Munich at the right time with the German Champions failing to win any of their last 2 games and they were beaten at Hertha Berlin over the weekend.

However there is enough quality in the Bayern Munich team to think they can bounce back and they are facing an Ajax team who simply aren't up to the level of the real elite of European Football. Ajax were also recently beaten 3-0 at PSV Eindhoven and I do worry about them when they face the very best teams.

Bayern Munich did not win their last 2 home Champions League games, but they had won their first 4 in the competition last season and all by at least two goal margins. The German Champions have been particularly dominant when it comes to home games in the Champions League Group Stage and they have tended to hammer those teams lower down the European food chain with big wins over those clubs.

Take away Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and you can see Bayern Munich have won 13 of their last 15 home Group games by at least two goal margins. It will be tough for this Ajax team to contain them I feel and I will back Bayern Munich to move into a commanding position in the Group with a solid win.


Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: One of the biggest surprises through the first round of matches in the Champions League Group Stage had to be the Lyon 1-2 win at Manchester City which has put the French side in a strong position in the Group already.

Manchester City are considered the team to beat in the Group so those points earned means Lyon will feel they have their own destiny in their hands going into the next four Champions League games.

Lyon have a very good recent home record in European competition with 7 wins in their last 10 home games. It will give them confidence against a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 7 of their last 8 away Champions League games and who had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Hoffenheim on Match Day 1.

I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a dangerous team who have to be respected, but Lyon have been in decent form over the last month and could have beaten Nantes this past weekend if not missing a late penalty. They have been scoring goals and I think Lyon back up their win over Manchester City be securing another vital three points here which will mean they are strong favourites to make it through to the Last 16.

The strong home record in recent European games adds to my belief in the French team and I will back them to win here.


Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: It was something of a 'no show' from Roma in their trip to Real Madrid on Match Day 1 as they were completely outplayed, but this is the Group Stage and most will expect the Italian club to bounce back.

That 3-0 loss to Real Madrid has been a part of what can only be described as a pretty poor start to the new season for a club that reached the Champions League Semi Final a few months ago. However there have been signs Roma are about to bounce back having recorded 2 big wins at home over the last seven days in the Italian top flight.

They will be expected to make it three in a row when they face Viktoria Plzen and Roma certainly have the goals in the squad to do that. Roma have now scored at least twice in all 4 home games played in the 2018/19 season, while they have extended their run to scoring at least twice in 8 of their last 9 here.

It doesn't bode well for Viktoria Plzen who have lost 4-0 at Slavia Prague and 3-0 at Jablonec in their last couple of away games. They have looked the weakest team in the Group and blowing a 2-0 lead at home against CSKA Moscow on Match Day 1 puts Viktoria Plzen in a difficult position.

This is another step up for Viktoria Plzen and I am not sure they are going to be able to make it against a Roma team who have won their last 5 Champions League games at home. Roma did struggle to put away Qarabag last season, but they did beat Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool by two or more goal margins.

I will back Roma to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and win a third straight home game in all competitions by two or more goals.


Paris Saint-Germain v Crvena Zvezda Pick: I don't think I was the only one who was disappointed with the level of performance Paris Saint-Germain produced in their 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage. They looked like a team that are not going to be able to challenge the elite of European Football, but you can't dismiss them out of hand with the talent Paris Saint-Germain put onto the field in every match they play.

They have certainly shown they can dominate those teams lower down the food chain and heavy wins over the likes of Celtic and Anderlecht twelve months ago underlines that point.

I would expect Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored at least three goals in every home game they have played so far in the 2018/19 season, to be far too good for Crvena Zvezda in this early kick off on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors are best known as Red Star Belgrade and are a former European Cup winner, but that was a long time ago and Crvena Zvezda have slipped from those standards of years gone by. Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is a huge achievement for them already and the draw with Napoli shows they can be hard to break down, although that match could have gone considerably differently if Napoli had taken the early chances they had fashioned.

Paris Saint-Germain are usually very clinical at home and so I am not anticipating them missing the same kind of opportunities as Napoli did. An early goal could see this fixture head in a similar manner as to Paris Saint-Germain's home wins over Anderlecht and Celtic in the Group Stage last season and I will back the French Champions to cover a big Asian Handicap and get this Group back on track.


Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: They may have won the Europa League last season but don't for one second believe Atletico Madrid were not embarrassed with their Group Stage exit in the Champions League. This is a team who have been very close to winning the competition over the last few years so the premature exit was a real surprise to everyone associated with the club.

They won't make the same mistakes this time around and showed that by coming from behind to beat Monaco 1-2 on Match Day 1.

However there is still something for Atletico Madrid to prove having failed to beat Qarabag in either Champions League Group game last season and so they won't be overlooking Club Brugge.

Atletico Madrid have been very good at home in Europe in general and they continue to be a tough team to break down. I think Diego Simeone will be looking to make sure they remain defensively sound in the belief that they will break down a Club Brugge team who have been a poor traveller at this level.

Scoring goals against better opposition has been a challenge for Club Brugge too and it is telling that 5 of their last 6 away defeats have come in matches they have not been able to score. Club Brugge have only scored in 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games too and I think Atletico Madrid remain the masters of the 'Win to Nil' at home and will back them to do that in this fixture.


Borussia Dortmund v Monaco Pick: Things have changed considerably for Monaco since they beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2017 in a tie that will be remembered for the blasts near the Dortmund coach which injured a couple of the players.

The Monaco team who played that Quarter Final have been broken up with key players now residing in Manchester and Paris and the poor form to open the season has to be a concern. They have already been beaten at home by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but the domestic form has been even more worrying as Monaco have slipped into the bottom three in France.

It is not ideal preparation for a visit to Borussia Dortmund who have been in good form to open the season.

At home they have been particularly strong with 3 straight wins and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. It is the kind of form that makes Borussia Dortmund very dangerous and I think they could overwhelm Monaco in this one and I do like the home team to win the fixture.

Covering the Asian Handicap won't be easy for Borussia Dortmund who have won 1 of their last 6 home European ties, but they are scoring plenty of goals and may be facing Monaco at the right time.


Porto v Galatasaray Pick: Group D in the Champions League looks the weakest one by some distance and I would imagine whichever two teams go through to the Last 16 won't be lasting much longer than that.

In saying that, Porto and Galatasaray won't be worrying what anyone thinks of the standard of the Group and are simply going to be fighting tooth and nail for a vital three points.

You have to give the edge to Porto in front of what is usually a loud home support and they are facing a Galatasaray team that hasn't played a lot of European Football over the last couple of years. Like many Turkish clubs, Galatasaray are also not the best travellers in Europe and they have lost their last 4 away European ties ahead of this one.

Their 3-0 home over Lokomotiv Moscow was a huge result for Galatasaray, but the challenge here is much bigger. Porto have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games but both of those have come by margins of two or more goals and I think they will be able to do the same here.

I will back Porto to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 2.


Napoli v Liverpool Pick: This Group looked a tough one on paper when it was drawn in August, but Liverpool can take a big step towards the Last 16 of the Champions League if they can win in Naples.

Last season Liverpool showed they can be very dangerous away from home in this competition with their ability to score plenty of goals and that has to be a concern for Napoli. The last time an English side came to Naples Manchester City hit four goals in a victory in the Champions League Group Stage twelve months ago, but Liverpool can also be vulnerable defensively.

That was underlined in their 4-2 loss at Roma in the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg and Napoli have to be confident having won all 3 home games under new manager Carlo Ancelotti. Goals haven't been a problem for Napoli and this has the makings of an entertaining game with both clubs better going forward than looking to sit back and defend in numbers.

Napoli's failure to beat Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1 has put the pressure on them to win all 3 home games in the Group if they want to try and work their way into the Last 16. That won't be lost on the manager and I think the attacking play will lead to some chances for Liverpool too and I think they can combine for a few goals in this one.

There is a feeling the Liverpool strikers are slightly out of form, but they continue to create a host of chances and both teams may in a position to help produce at least four goals on the night.


Bayer Leverkusen v AEK Larnaca Pick: In recent years Bayer Leverkusen have become a familiar name in the Champions League, but they missed out this season and have had to settle for a place in the Europa League.

This is a competition in which they could thrive if Bayer Leverkusen give it the due care and attention they should and the 2-3 win at Ludogorets on Match Day 1 suggests that may be the case.

They have not made the best start to the Bundesliga, but Bayer Leverkusen have faced both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich already. I expect an improvement from Bayer Leverkusen going forward and they can pick up a morale boosting win on Thursday.

AEK Larnaca are unlikely to roll over for Leverkusen, but this is a team who have already been beaten by Zurich in the Group and have done well to get to this Stage of the Europa League.

They have won 2 of their last 8 away games in this competition, but those have come in the Qualifying Rounds and this should prove to be a big step up for AEK Larnaca. I expect that to show up on the scoreboard too and I will back the home team to win on the Asian Handicap.


Salzburg v Celtic Pick: Brendan Rodgers is perhaps considering his future as Celtic manager with the financial constraints on him and the players perhaps losing a little belief in his methods showing up in the results the club have been earning. Everything seems to be hard work for Celtic at the moment and confidence looks to be at a low point with the club sitting in 5th place in the Scottish Premiership.

They might be able to express themselves with some freedom in Austria as the underdog, but Celtic have lost 4 of their last 7 away European ties and the lack of goals overall is a real concern.

The point is underlined when you think of how strong Salzburg have been all season and they have gotten over the real disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage. The away goals defeat was a real upset for Salzburg considering they reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season, but this is a team that could have another big impact at this level.

Home form is critical for Salzburg and I do think they can back up the impressive 2-3 win in Leipzig from Match Day 1. The side have won 13 of their last 14 home games and scored at least twice in all but one of those games so they clearly have the firepower to do away with Celtic here.

Celtic did earn a 2-2 draw in Salzburg in the 2014/15 Europa League Group Stage, but they don't look to have enough goals to do the same this time around. I will look for the more confident Salzburg team to wear down Celtic and eventually cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Qarabag v Arsenal Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for English clubs over the years but Manchester United proved it is a competition that can be won and a strong way back into the Champions League.

By hook or by crook getting back into the Champions League is all important for Arsenal this season and Unai Emery has admitted he would prefer to do that by winning the Europa League than finishing in the top four. His team selection on Match Day 1 and the squad travelling to Azerbaijan has underlined the importance the manager attaches to the Europa League and he is a serial winner of the competition from his time as manager of Sevilla.

A strong Arsenal team should be good to win in Qarabag even if the home team should be respected for drawing with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage last season. In that same section they were beaten by Roma and Chelsea with the English club running away with a dominant 0-4 win here.

Qarabag will have learnt some lessons from that defeat, but they look like a team who will struggle to deal with the speed of play Arsenal put together in the final third. Even so, Qarabag could potentially cause one or two problems of their own considering how Arsenal have yet to really fix their defensive issues despite the 7 game winning run they are enjoying.

The Gunners should have too much firepower though and can make up for their defensive shortcomings in this one. I respect Qarabag as they have rarely been blown away at home in European competition, but I do think Arsenal may have too much for them and can win by a couple of goals on the day.


Bordeaux v Kobenhavn Pick: Both Bordeaux and Kobenhavn failed to win their opening Group game in the Europa League this season which means there should be a little more pressure on the players to respond on Match Day 2.

There isn't as much between these teams as there would be between Kobenhavn and one of the stronger clubs in the French top flight, but I do still think Bordeaux should have the slight edge.

Home advantage only increases that edge and Bordeaux have been playing well here so far this season with 4 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. They might be facing Kobenhavn at the right time as the Danish club have slipped to defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games and the step up to the Europa League level is still a significant one for them.

I have to respect the fact that Kobenhavn knocked out Atalanta in the Play Off Round of the Europa League to enter the Group Stage. They battled to a goalless draw in Italy so can dig in to upset Bordeaux here, but the hosts have been scoring enough goals to think they can pick up the three points.

It may be close at times and both teams will need a bit of fortune, but I will look for Bordeaux to have home advantage tell in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Slavia Prague Pick: In usual weeks you could see Zenit St Petersburg and Slavia Prague being given one more day to recover from Europa League action and have their next League fixture moved to a Monday. That won't be the case this week with the international break upcoming and that raises a few more doubts as to the team selection of the managers.

There are more question marks about Zenit St Petersburg who face Krasnodar this weekend, the team currently closest to them in the Russian top flight standings. That is a big game for a club looking to return to the top of Russian Football, but Zenit St Petersburg could only force a draw on Match Day 1 of the Europa League so know the importance of winning this one too.

Zenit St Petersburg have been very good in the Europa League with 7 wins from their last 8 home games in this competition. That is plenty of reason to believe they will pick a team capable of beating a Slavia Prague team who have not travelled that well in European Football although one that did earn a surprising away draw at Villarreal last season in the Group.

I don't think Slavia Prague roll over for Zenit St Petersburg, but this is a tough place to play. They have three points on the board in the Group so there may be less pressure on Slavia Prague, but ultimately I think being at home gives Zenit St Petersburg enough of an edge to win this one.

Team news may be worth keeping an eye on, but I will back Zenit St Petersburg to win this game.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Lazio Pick: Both of these teams have made a positive start to the Europa League Group which also contains a tough Marseille team.

With wins on Match Day 1, the winner of this game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Lazio will put themselves in a commanding position to reach the Last 32 with a victory on Match Day 2.

Goals have been flowing in matches involving these teams in the last couple of weeks and that could be the case when they play one another. The win they have already earned in the Group could see the teams playing with some freedom in this one with the next three points putting them in such a strong position in the Group.

4 of the 6 away Europa League games Lazio played last season ended with three or more goals shared out and they have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games. 5 of the last 6 Eintracht Frankfurt games have also featured at least three goals shared out and I will look for these teams to combine for that number in this one too.


Rangers v Rapid Vienna Pick: Progressing in the Europa League through to the Knock Out Rounds could be a big achievement for Rangers and a progressive development for the club in general. Steven Gerrard has made it clear he wants to do well in every competition Rangers play and the 2-2 draw in Villarreal should give them plenty of confidence going forward.

Backing it up with a home win over Rapid Vienna is the key for Rangers if they have serious ambitions of making it through and they have played well enough at Ibrox to do that.

Rangers have won 4 of their 5 home Europa League games played in the last eighteen months and the draw in Villarreal was another positive result for them. Now they face a Rapid Vienna team who have been struggling away from home in recent games and who have a poor away European record with 6 losses from their last 9 away Europa League games.

I am a little concerned that Gerrard is perhaps going to be focusing on the big League games against Hearts to come this weekend, but Rangers have been strong at home throughout 2018/19. The manager will want this to be a difficult ground for any club to visit so will be looking to keep the momentum behind his players and I do think Rangers will edge out Rapid Vienna in this one.

The Austrian side have a lot more European experience than Rangers, but they simply haven't travelled well and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.


Sarpsborg v Genk Pick: Sarpsborg have surprised many domestically and also would have raised some eyebrows throughout the Europa League competition by making their way through four Qualifying Rounds in their maiden European campaign. It might have taken a toll on the players though and 7 straight losses in all competitions underlines that point.

However I expect the adrenaline to be pumping from the players to the fans as they play their first home Group Stage game in the Europa League. That should give the players a boost, but it may not be enough to beat an in-form Genk team who are looking to make it two wins out of two in the Group.

Genk are still chasing Club Brugge domestically, but they have been in very good form overall and 18 wins in their last 21 games is an impressive return. It has been just as good away from home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun having racked up 26 in that 8 game unbeaten run.

They are a team experienced in Europe and who have won 5 of their last 7 away Europa League games too and I think that experience can help Genk get the better of a team who have been treading water in recent games.

I do think Sarpsborg can offer some problems being at home where they have won 3 of their 4 Europa League games. However you can't ignore the really poor form they are in and they have conceded at least twice in their last 3 home games.

With the goals Genk are scoring I will look for the visitors to win a fixture that features two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roma - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bordeaux @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Genk & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

September 2018: 26-24, + 3.62 Units (100 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
August 2018: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)