Tennis Picks 2026 (Friday 13th February)

The business end of the current tournaments has come around with the Quarter Final matches scheduled at the three ATP events, while the WTA Doha event has reached the Semi Final.

It has been an inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks, but there is still an opportunity to finish with some strong form and to add some positive numbers to the season total.

Any selections from the tournaments in Dallas and Buenos Aires will be added to this thread once assessed after the markets have been fully formed.

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: After dropping the first set in her Quarter Final match against Iga Swiatek, Maria Sakkari was a significant underdog to progress.

Not only is the 30 year old dropping down the World Rankings, but Swiatek had not been beaten in her previous 109 WTA 1000 level matches after taking the opening set.

The World Number 52 has had to spend two and a half hours on the court in the Quarter Final, but that victory will be pushing Maria Sakkari back up towards the top 30 in the World Rankings. She will have taken a lot of confidence from the win over the top Seed in Doha and Maria Sakkari has put together four good wins in the tournament to move into the Semi Final.

After a decline in 2025, Sakkari will be feeling much better about her level of performance in the early events in 2026 and she will certainly feel she has the tennis to give Karolina Muchova plenty to think about.

One mid-match withdrawal aside, Karolina Muchova has eased through the draw and her win over Anna Kalinskaya in the Quarter Final continues her fine form.

She has faced a much more manageable part of the draw compared with Maria Sakkari who has two top ten wins on the board.

However, Karolina Muchova has been playing at a higher level on the hard courts over the last twelve months and she has been winning a lot of tennis matches on the surface since the beginning of January.

With the upsets that have taken place in the tournament, Karolina Muchova will feel there is a big opportunity for her to win the title here, while that may be good enough to earn her a return to the top ten herself.

Both players have been backing up the serve very effectively here in Doha, but it is Karolina Muchova who has been getting slightly more out of that shot. It is the World Number 19 who has also been the slightly more effective return player and that could show up in this latest meeting between the two veterans of the Tour.

They have not faced one another since August 2023 when Karolina Muchova beat Maria Sakkari on the hard courts of Cincinnati, but it was a match that went the distance. Back then Maria Sakkari was the higher Ranked player and it may be tough for her to bridge the gap, especially having put in so much physical and mental effort to win the Quarter Final on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Karolina Muchova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 8-7, + 0.23 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th February)

The WTA Doha tournament moves into the Quarter Final stage and all four matches are played back to back on Thursday.

We also move further into the three ATP tournaments being played this week, but the focus for the Tennis Picks remain on the biggest event taking place.

It has been a decent week so far for the selections, but this is looking like the busiest day so far and could determine the trajectory of the profit/loss mark.

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: Ten months ago, Ekaterina Alexandrova reached her career high World Ranking inside the top 20, but she is operating as the World Number 26 this week in Doha.

An early exit at the Australian Open was a blow, but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won a title in Linz and she has now won seven matches in a row. The disappointment of the poor start to the season looks to be behind the Russian and her three wins in Doha will have only increased the confidence.

One of those wins was against World Number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, and Ekaterina Alexandrova has backed that Second Round win up by beating Elise Mertens in the Third Round. That was her best performance of the week and Alexandrova will feel her level is high enough to perhaps earn the upset in this Quarter Final.

The layers certainly feel it is going to be an upset if Ekaterina Alexandrova is able to get the better of Jessica Pegula, the World Number 5 and who has produced two solid wins to take her place in the last eight.

Jessica Pegula reached the Final in Adelaide in the build up to the Australian Open before a Third Round upset defeat in Melbourne.

She has been serving well in her two wins in Doha and both players are going to be relying on that shot to set up control of the rallies. There looks to be a slight edge with the Ekaterina Alexandrova first serve and that may make the difference in what is expected to be a competitive match, especially with both players producing aggressive returning that will be targeting the second serves whenever they can.

Both players have managed to land 62% of their first serves and the player that can avoid falling below that mark is likely going to have the edge in what is expected to be close match.

When the players met in Miami on the hard courts last year, Ekaterina Alexandrova got the better of Jessica Pegula in three sets, but it was a match in which the American will feel she was the better player and deserved to win.

It will be a tough match again, but this time Jessica Pegula could just win the key points to find a way to earn passage into the Semi Final.

She has been the steadier player in the tournament so far, and Jessica Pegula can find one more break of serve than Ekaterina Alexandrova and ultimately that may be enough to cover this mark.

Elena Rybakina + 3.5 games v Iga Swiatek: Players would always love to concentrate on the tennis court and only really have to answer questions about things happening between the lines drawn.

Realistically that cannot always be the case when stories break and that is the case for Elena Rybakina who has been questioned about her former Coach Stefano Vukov remaining suspended from being able to work on the Tour.

They had split as Coach and player last year, but Elena Rybakina was hoping to rehire Vukov this year until the WTA stepped in- making the story harder to understand is that the Croatian has been banned for his treatment of Rybakina, which has been denied by the player herself, and the World Number 7 has stated that she wants to concentrate on her tennis moving forward.

There is clearly some relationship between player and Coach, one that goes beyond tennis, but Elena Rybakina is trying to let her tennis do the talking.

Two solid wins have been produced by Elena Rybakina in Doha, but she faces the highest Seed left in the tournament when renewing her rivalry with Iga Swiatek.

Winning the tournament would push Iga Swiatek right up behind Aryna Sabalenka in World Ranking points and the World Number 2 may feel she is playing with 'house money' after fortunately finding her way through to the Quarter Final. The Pole will have to lift her level again if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina, but Iga Swiatek managed to do that at the United Cup to open this season and she also beat this opponent in the Final here in Doha twelve months ago.

Both of those matches have been won on the hard courts in straight sets and Iga Swiatek is always a dangerous player to oppose.

However, Elena Rybakina has been operating at a good level in her two wins and she has a first serve that can just help her through some difficult moments. The return has been working well too this week and Swiatek could be pushed to the limit and that makes the games being given to the underdog look appealing.

In the last five completed matches between these two rivals, Elena Rybakina would have covered with this many games being given to her on four occasions. The exception was the defeat in the Doha Final in 2024, but that was a much closer match than the final scoreline indicated and this time the World Number 7 can ensure the games total remains within the line set.

Ons Jabeur - 2.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Last year was a very difficult year for Ons Jabeur and that has contributed to her slipping down to World Number 35, but the run to the Quarter Final has her trending back in a positive direction.

Plenty of fans will be pushing her to try and win the title in Doha and doing that would see Ons Jabeur move back into the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Tunisian may not be thinking beyond each match, and Jabeur has to be feeling more confident with plenty of wins already on the board in 2025.

This is the third time that Ons Jabeur has played a Quarter Final this season, but she has yet to win one of those matches and that is the pressure she will have to deal with on Thursday. She lost a very tight match in this Round against Elena Rybakina last week in Abu Dhabi, but Ons Jabeur reached that stage with a win over Jelena Ostapenko on the way.

The Latvian is the player across the court from Ons Jabeur again and Jelena Ostapenko will be motivated for revenge having lost a tight, competitive match when the players met in Abu Dhabi last week.

That loss had been a part of a poor start to the season for Jelena Ostapenko who had been 1-4 before the start of this event in Doha. Three wins in a row will have given her a real boost in confidence, while Ostapenko may put her poor start to the season down to some tough opening draws.

Losses against Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic can be put into the context of both of those players winning big tournaments this season and so clearly players in some strong form.

The defeat to Ons Jabeur might have hurt a bit more, but Jelena Ostapenko created more Break Points in that match and both sets played were very close.

Both players are performing well here in Doha, especially behind the first serve and that is going to be important for both Jabeur and Ostapenko.

However, Ons Jabeur has been getting a lot more first serves in play and she has protected her second serve more effectively than Jelena Ostapenko and it could be a decisive factor in the outcome of this Quarter Final.

Allowing too many looks at the second serve could be dangerous for Ons Jabeur, especially knowing how aggressive Jelena Ostapenko can be on the return. Getting the Latvian to try and attack the first serve could lead to plenty of mistakes and Ons Jabeur will be well backed by the fans in the stands in her bid to frank the win that was produced when the players met in Abu Dhabi.

It might come down to one or two points in each set, but Ons Jabeur might be able to get through the stickier moments with a more consistent first serve percentage and that could see her cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.57 Units (3 Units Staked, + 85.67% Yield)

NFL Super Bowl LVI Pick 2022- Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams (February 13th)

We are just about at the end of the 2021 NFL season, but there is one more game to be played before the seven month off-season.

Lots of interest will be around for the Free Agency and NFL Draft, but the Super Bowl headlines this weekend and that sees a team playing in their home Stadium for a second season in a row.

The season has not been a memorable one for the NFL Picks, but it is tough to put winning seasons together and I was much happier with the 2020 selections. However, I have at least got one more chance to end the 2021 season with a positive result.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams Pick: The decision to trade for Matthew Stafford looked to be one that was made with the Los Angeles Rams all in to their current window of trying to win a Super Bowl. While there have been some ups and downs in the 2021 season, there would have been plenty of people that picked the Los Angeles Rams to make the Super Bowl before the season began and so it cannot be a massive surprise.

However, it is a much different case for the Cincinnati Bengals who finished last in the AFC North last season and who were considered an improving team, but one that still had something to prove. Road wins over the top two Seeds in the AFC have seen the Bengals reach the big game and there will be plenty of belief in Ohio that their team can bring home a Super Bowl for the first time.

For the second season in a row a team will have the opportunity to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium and that has to give the Los Angeles Rams an edge, even as the designated road team. Last season it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who won with home comforts and the Rams have been set as the favourite to do the same in the 2021 season.

No one should be taking a one game sample as a trend, but the Rams have to be feeling pretty good about playing at home and every team in the NFL would sign up for the opportunity to play the Super Bowl in their own Stadium. That has contributed to the Rams being the favourites, but the star-studded team would likely have gone into the Super Bowl in that spot anyway.

In saying that, the Rams are not considered a huge favourite and so Joe, Burrow not Namath, will feel the upset is entirely possible as the Bengals chase a first Super Bowl in franchise history. Having a Head Coach who is familiar with the Rams will help Cincinnati, although Sean McVay has the experience of Coaching in a Super Bowl and the loss to the New England Patriots will certainly have given him a chance to just change things around and adjust whenever he made it back to the big game.

Rumours about retirement have been shut down for Sean McVay, even as he becomes the youngest Head Coach to reach two Super Bowls, but there may not be too many more opportunities for him to add the ring to his CV.

Much of what the Rams like to do is based on their ability to run the ball, but that has remained a tough task for them even with a returning Cam Akers. Struggles against the San Francisco and Tampa Bay Defensive Lines may not be an indicator of what the Rams can do in this one though as the Bengals Defensive Line has had some difficulty containing the run throughout the PlayOff run.

Unlike the Chiefs, I don't think McVay will lean away from the run and the Rams could be very tough to stop if they are able to keep Matthew Stafford in front of the chains. Cam Akers may have a big game and that will open things up for the Quarter Back with the play-action as he looks to hit talented Receivers down the field.

Cooper Kuup is the stand out name, but Odell Beckham Jr has thrived since signing with the Rams, although Tyler Higbee will be a real loss. Even then, Los Angeles have players who can expose this Secondary and Matthew Stafford has been given plenty of time to hit his Receivers thanks to a strong Offensive Line.

The Bengals Defensive unit has made big adjustments when needed though so Zac Taylor should feel his team will avoid any potential blow out. His knowledge of the way Sean McVay likes to work should help Cincinnati formulate a good game plan on this side of the ball, while the Head Coach will firmly believe his own Quarter Back and Offense can keep the Bengals rolling.

Joe Burrow has won a National Championship at College level and he is a player who exudes confidence on and off the field and I have no doubt the Quarter Back is going to fancy winning it all. It feels like the Bengals are going to have to rely on Burrow throwing the ball as they have struggled to establish the run, even with a star player like Joe Mixon in the backfield.

Facing up to the Los Angeles Defensive Line will be a huge test for the Bengals Offense and I am not sure Joe Mixon is going to get a lot of change out of them up front. That means Joe Burrow will be relying on the Offensive Line to try and keep the likes of Von Miller and Aaron Donald from out of the backfield, something that has been an issue for the Bengals in the PlayOffs.

Even then, Joe Burrow has shown he can scramble from the pressure and still make some big throws down the field. The momentum is with the Bengals having beaten the top two Seeds in the AFC and Burrow will be very keen in throwing against a Rams Secondary which has multiple holes away from where Jalen Ramsey will be playing.

Cincinnati may not have the star names at Receiver like Los Angeles do, at least not yet, but they have a talented unit that are very capable of making big time plays across the field.

Turnovers may end up being the key to the outcome of the Super Bowl, but I can't help feel the lack of balance that Cincinnati will have will end up costing them here. I am expecting the Rams to be able to move the ball on the ground, at least more efficiently than the Cincinnati Bengals, and both teams have Receivers that can win against the Secondary players they are facing.

Being at home HAS to be an advantage, although I am not overly confident in opposing the momentum of the Cincinnati Bengals who have covered in their last five games when set as the underdog. The never say die attitude was clear in the comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago, but I think the experience of the Rams helps them just turn that away.

The Rams are only 1-1 against the spread in their two PlayOff games as the favourite in their run to the Super Bowl, but I think the balance Offensively sees them become a rare Super Bowl favourite to cover in recent seasons.

MY PICK: Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 2-5, - 6.52 Units (14 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)

Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 81-80-1, - 12.54 Units (324 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara (February 13th)

Can you really believe it has only been a couple of months since Anthony Joshua's Heavyweight title defence against Kubrat Pulev?

Honestly this whole lockdown situation has got me a little confused with times and memories over the last year and it certainly feels a lot longer than two months since we had big time Boxing back in the United Kingdom.

Life is not that back to the point where the fans are even allowed to return in limited numbers, but Boxers really do fight for their paycheques and that means big names have to get out there and perform in front of the empty stands. The last thing you want is a long lay off waiting for the fans to return, especially when there is no clear indication of when that will be, and fighters of the stature of Canelo Alvarez and Joshua have shown time doesn't stop for anyone and have been out during the pandemic.

It is the kind of decision which should inspire others and over the next two months there are countless big cards that have been put together- some top fights have also been made, although the majority of us are waiting to hear if Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury have agreed terms and a date for their Heavyweight Unification bout that will stop the UK.

That won't be happening here, at least not the first time, but it will generate a huge buzz for the sport, although judging by the BBC Panorama documentary which came out last month, not all of that will be positive. There is no such thing as bad publicity and for all the critics I could find ten people who are going to be willing to pay to watch arguably the biggest fight in the history of British Boxing.

We may hear about that by the end of the month, but the date is likely to be in June or July and there are plenty of big fights happening in the interim.

The news that Joe Smith Jr's Light Heavyweight bout against Maxim Vlasov has been postponed has removed what looked like the best fight of the weekend, but this is still a decent way to get Boxing up and running again after a quiet January. The Light Heavyweight Division hasn't had much luck with fighters either popping for failed tests or Coronavirus infecting the fighters over the last few months, but I am hoping the Smith Jr-Vlasov fight for an Interim World Title can be re-arranged fairly soon.

Richard Commey is back this week though and Joseph Diaz should have been defending his World Title, but is overweight. That bout will still go on though and DAZN has the coverage of that one for us over in the United Kingdom, but Diaz has been stripped of the Title he took from Tevin Farmer and will have plenty disappointed with him.

In the UK we have the return of Josh Warrington who is finally fighting under the Matchroom banner again having returned to the stable, but missing 2020 through the Coronavirus issues which changed momentum for so many.

Hopefully this is the start of a really solid run of weekends as we are also hopefully moving back towards a time where we can see friends and family.

Leigh Wood vs Reece Mould

The vacant British Featherweight Title is on the line on the first Matchroom card of the 2021 year and it looks like being the last chance for Leigh Wood to pick up a big Title as he returns for the first time in almost a full twelve months.

Last time Wood was in the ring he was losing a very narrow Decision to James Dickens, a fighter who has gone on to position himself for an IBF World Title shot in the months ahead. That does underline the kind of level that Leigh Wood has been operating at and he will be hoping that experience will see him have too much for Reece Mould.

The latter is unbeaten in thirteen fights, but he has actually been out of the ring longer than Leigh Wood and it should be noted that this is a significant step up for Reece Mould. It will only be the third fight that has been scheduled for more then Six Rounds and only the third time Mould will be fighting someone with a winning record (and one of the previous two was against a 1-0 fighter).

Levels have long been talked about in Boxing and I do feel we are going to see that in this one with Wood's two defeats coming against a former World Champion and another to a fighter that will go on to challenge for a World Title. The latter defeat to James Dickens certainly looks better now considering how close it was and where Dickens has taken his career.

Leigh Wood had been on a run of four stoppages in a row before the defeat to Dickens and I do have a feeling he can take Reece Mould and drown him in the later Rounds in this one too.

Perhaps there is something in Reece Mould that can see him step up, but the long lay off, the lack of experience of operating close to this level and the ability of Leigh Wood suggests the favourite can end this one inside the distance.

Zelfa Barrett vs Kiko Martinez

At 27 years old you would think the best years are ahead of Zelfa Barrett and the feeling immediately is that Matchroom are giving him a chance to really put his name out there by beating a former World Title challenger in Kiko Martinez.

The Spaniard is well known in Britain having taken on Carl Frampton (twice), Scott Quigg and Josh Warrington since 2013, although Martinez has lost all four of those fights and twice inside the distance. He has also taken on Gary Russell Jr in the years since those fights and was stopped in that one too.

Now you would have to believe that Kiko Martinez is on the downward slide in his career and at 34 years old there is plenty of miles on the clock.

That makes this not only a winnable fight for Zelfa Barrett, but another one where he can make some noise by putting his name in the spotlight. The Mancunian was last seen at Fight Camp back in August, but Barrett will need to be more active in 2021 and having this early fight gives him a chance to do that.

He won't have to go looking for Kiko Martinez and while I expect the early Rounds to be competitive, I do think Zelfa Barrett will begin to take control at the midway mark and begin to find the target regularly and accurately. Zelfa Barrett looks to have bounced back from his sole loss and three of his last four fights have ended in stoppages with two of those coming in the second half of the fight.

You do have to wonder if Kiko Martinez can be caught early having seen three of his four stoppages come in the first Five Rounds. Those have come against world class operators though and my feeling is that Barrett will have to take a little bit more time than the likes of Russell Jr, Scott Quigg and Leo Santa Cruz, but I would be a little disappointed if the British fighter is not able to force someone to step in and save Martinez over the course of a Twelve Round bout.

That is more likely to come through and wear and accumulation and I think Barrett gets the job done in the second half before moving on to bigger fights both domestically and the world level.

Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara

He was once under the Matchroom banner, but Josh Warrington switched to rival promoter Frank Warren as he felt he was under-appreciated by Eddie Hearn's team. After becoming a World Champion, Hearn admitted he got it wrong about the level he once felt Warrington would reach, but the Leeds man has not allowed that to worry about re-joining Matchroom.

Now it is all about chasing the other Champions and really putting a strong legacy together, but the failure to lure Can Xu into a Unification has proved very costly for Josh Warrington who returns to the ring for the first time since October 2019 and for the first time since re-joining this stable.

The failure to secure the Unification has actually led to Warrington dropping his IBF World Title after a rematch with Kid Galahad was ordered by the organisation. It does make his bargaining position a little weaker, but Eddie Hearn is convinced he can put Warrington on the right road with an active year ahead of him.

We have already heard talk about Josh Warrington potentially being back out there in April, but that does make me wonder how much of a credible threat they see in Mauricio Lara.

The Mexican fighter has a good looking 21-2 record and anyone coming out of that nation is going to be willing to put it all on the line, but a little scratch at the surface and you do wonder how much Lara has to offer at this level. All but one fight has been in Mexico, while he has never been scheduled in a Twelve Round fight and only four times signed up for a bout longer than Eight Rounds.

The Knock Out run sounds good, but Mauricio Lara is stepping up considerable levels in this fight and I think much depends on how much ring rustiness that Josh Warrington will need to shake off. I have no doubt that Lara won't be hard to find, but Warrington has under-rated power and I do think it will give him a chance to unload barrages which will be difficult for the Mexican fighter to ride out.

With the long-term thinking that his promoters and team want him back out there pretty soon, I think Josh Warrington can get the job done in this one relatively early too. The seven stoppages in a 30-0 record doesn't really suggest there is a lot of power, but most who have stood in front of Josh Warrington say he hits harder than that and Mauricio Lara might be the perfect opponent to put a statement down with a big stoppage before chasing bigger names, belts and marquee bouts.

Patrick Teixiera vs Brian Carlos Castano

The WBO World Light-Middleweight Title is on the line this weekend and it is going to be a South American battle when Brazilian Champion Patrick Teixiera defends against Argentinian Brian Carlos Castano.

The only negatives on the combined resumes is a stoppage defeat for Patrick Teixiera against Curtis Stevens in 2016, while Brian Carlos Castano had a Split Draw with Erislandy Lara in a fight he might have edged.

It has been some time since we saw Castano in the ring and his WBA Light Middleweight Title has been taken on by Lara since then, but Brian Carlos Castano will be looking to get back into the mix by winning this WBO belt.

He is a really good fighter and I do think he will have too much for Patrick Teixiera, although the Brazilian has a couple of decent wins under his belt in recent fights. Like his opponent, Teixiera has been out of the ring for some time and both have suggested they are going to square up and try and take the fight to the other.

Boxing is about levels though and Castano has looked like someone who could operate alongside the other Champions in a deep 154 Division, while the same cannot necessarily be said for Teixeira.

I don't think Patrick Teixiera will just hand the Title over to Brian Carlos Castano, but the latter has the superior skills and hits plenty hard to put the pressure on the Champion. At 31 years old this is the time for Castano to really position himself to get into the big Unification fights and to do that he needs to make a statement by ripping the title away from the Champion.

There will be some hugely fun moments to watch for the fans, but in the rivalry I expect the superior talent of the Argentinian and the clear power punching he has to come through and earn the stoppage win as Castano is restored to the ranks of Champion.

Richard Commey vs Jackson Marinez

The most recent images of Richard Commey will have come in the Two Round blowout to Teofimo Lopez in December 2019, but the 33 year old Ghanaian is pushing to return to top of a loaded 135 Division.

He will need to earn his way into a World Title shot because not many are going to give Commey a shot if he proves to have something left in the tank. Richard Commey is adamant that he should have been given more time in the defeat to Lopez which saw him lose his grip on the IBF Title that had been defended once before.

Close losses to Robert Easter Jr and Denis Shafikov shows the kind of level the big hitting Richard Commey has been operating at and the feeling is that it is a step or two above Jackson Marinez.

The latter has to be respected after deserving more than he got in the defeat to Rolando Romero back in August, but there are still questions. The main one is whether Jackson Marinez is that good or whether Rolando Romero is simply not and the feeling is that it is more about the second part of the question than the first.

Keeping Richard Commey off will be a tough task for Marinez and if the former has any real ambitions of becoming a World Champion again he has to win fights like this one. The output and heavy hands should be too much for Marinez and I think at some point the power of Richard Commey will break through and lead to a win.

Some will feel the cards will be needed, but Commey can take the judges out of the picture with some power hitting taking him through Jackson Marinez.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Zelfa Barrett to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Josh Warrington to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Brian Carlos Castano to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Richard Commey to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2021 (February 13th)

Things have changed at the Australian Open both on and off the court and it will be interesting to know what kind of impact it is going to have on the overall tournament.

The lack of fans is something the players have become accustomed to, but it will have a bit of a 'shock element' to it having had the stands somewhat filled over the first five days and now playing in what will be near silence. It is a challenge both mentally and emotionally for players and I am sure most involved will be hoping that things change by the end of this Grand Slam and that the fans will return for the business end of the event.

On court the Men's draw looks wide open after the injury picked up by Novak Djokovic which puts his entire participation in the remainder of the tournament in doubt. It will be interesting to see if the World Number 1 can manage the pain to keep playing, but he admitted himself that he may not be in a position to take to the court on Day 7 when he is set to play his Fourth Round match against Milos Raonic.

It will mean the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be further encouraged to believe they can win this Grand Slam title.

The Woman's draw also looks to be building up nicely towards the end of the tournament and I think we are in for some enjoyable tennis.

No fans is a blow, but the Melbourne authorities have made the right call to try and get on top of the virus even if it means the people living in Victoria are under another strict lockdown. It is very difficult for anyone to be in lockdown and what it entails so you just have to hope people stay safe, stay mentally as strong as they can be and that things will improve sooner than later.

Personally I am fed up of the situation in London as it has become months since I've had any interaction with anyone outside of my own household- I miss people, I miss going out and I miss actually living, not merely surviving through the days.

Day 5 saw a bounce back after a couple of tough days for the Tennis Picks and on Day 6 there feels like a lot of selections that hit the mark I need to make them. Hopefully I can build back towards a positive mark for the tournament, while Outright selections look to book their places in the second week on what is another packed day with some quality matches out there.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 games v Mikael Ymer: When you represent a nation like Sweden there is always going to be some pressure on players to produce at the very top of the Tennis Tour. The Ymer brothers have understood that throughout their careers and both accept it will be part and parcel of the questions they will face whenever they are in front of the press, but Mikael is handling it the best way he can at 22 years old.

The young man sounds pretty level-headed, which is important for players making their way on the Tour, and Mikael Ymer has already produced his best result at a Grand Slam by reaching the Third Round here. A win over a Seeded player in the First Round opened up this portion of the draw and Mikael Ymer got the better of Carlos Alcarez Garfia in the Second Round, the much heralded Spanish teenager who looks to have a bright future in the game.

Neither win came in dominant fashion, but Mikael Ymer won't care about that as he gets set to take on one of the favourites to win the Australian Open. The time spent on court might be a concern for Ymer, but he is going up against Stefanos Tsitsipas who needed over four hours to deservedly come through his Second Round match against Thanasi Kokkinakis.

It might have taken five sets, but I think it is a huge mental success for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he could have easily been thinking of all the missed opportunities he had within that match. The Greek World Number 6 has previously produced some of his best tennis in Melbourne where he gets a huge amount of support from the locals, but it can be argued that Tsitsipas is playing at a level higher than we have seen even when considering the small small sample of matches played in 2021.

One of my 'criticisms' of Stefanos Tsitsipas is that he doesn't get more from his return game and I think he has probably been thinking about that himself judging by some of his remarks so far this week. Whatever he has been working on has showed up so far in his time Down Under and Tsitsipas is not only winning considerably more return points in terms of a percentage, but it is being rewarded with a lot more breaks of serve than we are used to from him too.

In the last three seasons Stefanos Tsitsipas has tended to break in around 18% of return games played on the hard courts, but he is running at 31% in his four matches in 2021. I am not sure that is sustainable from this player, but it makes Tsitsipas very dangerous considering how well he tends to serve on this surface.

This is going to represent a real challenge for Mikael Ymer who has a solid return, one that has been effective even when he has played against top 50 Ranked players on the Tour. He doesn't have much experience playing the really top names on the hard courts, but one meeting stands out and that is the 6-3, 6-1 defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas on an indoor hard court twelve months ago.

On that day it was the Tsitsipas serve which dominated the match having won almost 79% of points behind his serve against Mikael Ymer. Anything similar will put intense pressure on the Swedish underdog and that is mainly down to the fact that he has struggled to hold serve against the better players he has played on the Tour on the hard courts.

In that match last year, Stefanos Tsitsipas broke in 50% of the return games played and there is enough being shown in Melbourne over the last two weeks to think this will end up a relatively straight-forward win for the Greek star.

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: I have long made it clear that I am a fan of the Karen Khachanov game and consider him as someone who should be a Grand Slam Champion at some stage in his career. However I think the big hitting Russian is going to be meeting his match in this good looking Third Round encounter when he goes up against Matteo Berrettini.

Both players have a career high Number 8 World Ranking, but it is Matteo Berrettini who comes into the Australian Open as the higher Seed. He is still in the top 10 of the World Rankings, while Karen Khachanov is barely holding onto his top 20 spot, and it does feel like Matteo Berrettini is the one that is on a superior trajectory of the two players at this current time.

There should be plenty of power on display and the serve is going to be the big weapon for both players- Karen Khachanov is holding 92% of service games played in 2021 while Matteo Berrettini is at 90%. However there is something to note about those numbers and that is that Khachanov has yet to play a single player Ranked inside the top 20 and Berrettini has played four players inside those Rankings.

That is important because this is a step up for Karen Khachanov who over the last two seasons has held less than 84% of his service games played on the hard courts. His returning numbers have been steady at around 36% of return points being won leading to about a 19% break rate over a number of seasons, but all of these marks will be challenged by a confident Italian on the other side of the net.

Matteo Berrettini's service numbers have been stronger than his opponent's, but he has not been as effective in returning, although there have been signs that may also be developing from the small amount of matches played in 2021. As long as his serve is as big and dominating as it can be, Matteo Berrettini will feel it will put some huge mental pressures on any opponent he faces and that will give him a chance to win matches and have yet another deep run in a Grand Slam tournament.

My feeling is that in this match up it will come down to which of these players is able to serve the best to keep the other off balance and chasing the match. Neither is the best returner, but Matteo Berrettini's edge in the serving department and also in the head to head should give him the confidence to progress.

The Italian has won all three previous matches against Karen Khachanov, although they have not played since June 2019 having met all three times between February and June that year. Two of those meetings were on a grass court and one was on a hard court and Matteo Berrettini has had a huge edge when it comes to the serve having held in 97% of the service games he has played compared with Karen Khachanov's 76% mark.

In all three matches it is Berrettini who has created more break points and in the last match between these players he had more break points than Karen Khachanov has had in the three matches combined. While the Russian is playing really well to open up in 2021, he does have a 12-31 record against top 20 opponents on the hard courts and the match up edge to Matteo Berrettini makes me believe he can win this match in three or four sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players have only met once previously on the pro Tour and it was a remarkable match if only for the ease in which Filip Krajinovic was able to beat Daniil Medvedev at the Indian Wells Masters in 2019. Filip Krajinovic only faced two break points in that match and was able to win 42% of the points played on the Daniil Medvedev serve as he won 6-3, 6-2, but both players will feel they are much improved from that meeting almost two years ago.

It was later that year that Daniil Medvedev made the US Open Final and he has reached the Semi Final at the same event since then too. The Russian has moved into the top 10 of the World Rankings and he has become one of the top hard court players in the world, while the uncertainty about the injury Novak Djokovic picked up in his Third Round win has pushed Daniil Medvedev into favouritism for the tournament.

All of that brings a pressure to the fore, but Mevedev has long looked pretty level-headed and someone who will look to play his best tennis and see where that is going to take him. His hard court numbers improved from 2019 to 2020 and Daniil Medvedev has looked in imperious form as he put his 6-0 start on the board in 2021.

He has dominated his first two opponents at the Australian Open and Daniil Medvedev seems to be enjoying the conditions with his serve and return looking mighty effective. Unsurprisingly he is a strong favourite to make it through to the second week of the tournament, but Daniil Medvedev cannot take anything for granted when he takes on Filip Krajinovic on Day 6 of the tournament.

Filip Krajinovic is a solid hard court player and his two wins in the draw so far have been very good, although against a level of opponent far below what he is expected to see in the Third Round. His service numbers have simply not matched what Daniil Medvedev has been able to do on the hard courts and Filip Krajinovic has tended to have a harder time when facing the elite players on the surface.

The numbers take a significant dent when he has faced top 20 opponents on the hard courts and it is the return which has suffered. Filip Krajinovic has a 1-4 record against those opponents at Grand Slam level on this surface and that sole win came against Marco Cecchinato who was never a strong hard court player and who had an artificially high Ranking after a couple of surprising clay court runs.

His last two losses to top 20 Ranked players in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts have come in straight sets and Krajinovic has not been overly competitive in those outside a set or two. That has to be an issue and someone like Daniil Medvedev has an overall game that makes it very hard to see him losing a match like this one despite the head to head record.

It is a big spread to cover, but Daniil Medvedev is 19-0 against players Ranked outside the top 20 in the hard court Grand Slams played in Australia and the United States since August 2018. The numbers have been dominant in those matches and the last eight have been won in straight sets without a single tie-breaker being needed.

I am expecting the return to be the difference maker for the higher Seed in this match too and I will look for Daniil Medvedev to pull away for an impressive win.

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Without a doubt this looks a very big handicap on first viewing especially if veteran Feliciano Lopez is able to serve at his highest level, but the Spaniard is at the back end of what has been a long and successful career.

Even his place in the Third Round may be a surprise as Lopez has spent over six hours on court and was an underdog in both of the first two matches played at the Australian Open. Beating a Wild Card in the First Round is one thing, but Feliciano Lopez came from two sets down in the Second Round which has to have given him confidence.

However it will also have been a taxing mental and physical effort from Feliciano Lopez and that could hinder him the longer this match goes, especially as he goes up against a young and improving Andrey Rublev who will play every point to the best of his ability. The return game is good enough to at least get into the Lopez serve despite the power of the first serve and the serve-volley play that Lopez will employ to try and get on top of the rallies.

Feliciano Lopez was a touch fortunate in the last Round as Lorenzo Sonego created 11 break points compared with 3 faced, but the latter was only to take two of his chances and was broken every time he faced a break point. That is largely unsustainable and it is hard to ignore the fact that Kevin Anderson was able to break the Lopez serve twice in preparation for this tournament.

Make no mistake, Andrey Rublev is a much stronger returner than any Feliciano Lopez has faced in this tournament and that could wear on the veteran. Over the last twelve months the Russian has also shown clear signs of a much improved serve on this surface and it should mean he is able to keep the pressure on Feliciano Lopez and eventually wear down a player who has already spent a lot of time on the court.

As the match wears on I can see some fatigue seeing Lopez lose a touch of rhythm on the first serve and the more second serves seen by Andrey Rublev the better his opportunities will be to break the Spaniard's serve enough times to cover this mark. I would not be surprised if the match starts off pretty competitively, but at some point I expect Rublev to begin to take over with his superior recent numbers on both serve and return giving him a considerable edge in the match.

The Second Round match was perhaps tougher than expected, but Andrey Rublev was a little loose when the break points were created and a slightly better conversion percentage should see him pull away for a big win.

Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Cameron Norrie: A lot of players in the Men's draw would have stood up and taken notice of the Novak Djokovic injury struggles in his Third Round win and there will be plenty of Rafael Nadal fans hoping this is the time for their man to take over the record for most Grand Slam wins for a male player. At the start of this tournament Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have both got 20 majors under their belt and the back issues that may have been plaguing Nadal at the beginning of this tournament have not shown up just yet.

The first two wins have come in largely dominant fashion for Rafael Nadal, although he will want to show a little more composure when the break points come up for him. The Spaniard has created eleven break points in each of his first two matches in the tournament, and he has broken at a 50% conversion rate which is impressive, but there is still some room for improvement.

Rafael Nadal will take on the last British player left in either the Men's or Women's draws when Cameron Norrie is set to take him on for the first time. I imagine a call will have been made to Andy Murray who is playing in a Challenger event in Italy at the moment, but the lefty will be looking to impose his own game on Nadal and see how he handles it.

There is something to like about the Norrie game and he has played well enough on the hard courts having experienced the surface in his time playing tennis at an American university. A lefty playing a lefty should mean Cameron Norrie is aware of some of the angles that Rafael Nadal is going to want to try and work, but the challenge for the lower Ranked player is trying to get his teeth into the Nadal service games.

So far in this tournament Rafael Nadal has only faced five break points and only allowed one of those to be converted as he has won 74% of points played behind the serve. That is an incredible number and will be difficult for Cameron Norrie to change that considering he has broken in just 4% of return games played against top 10 players on the hard courts in his career.

That number is across five matches and the last two have seen Cameron Norrie win a total of seven games in four sets against Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev. Rafael Nadal may not be as strong a returner as those two have been operating at over the last twelve to eighteen months, but he is certainly good enough to force Norrie to have to hit a lot of balls to beat him and that could see the British player worn down like the first two opponents have been.

It is a large handicap if Rafael Nadal is slightly off his game, but he has enjoyed the conditions in Melbourne and he won't have to deal with any hecklers in this one. The lack of fans is a blow for Cameron Norrie who has a New Zealand background and would have likely been backed as the underdog, and I do think he could struggle to stay with Nadal who will want to book his place in the second week without expending too much energy or exerting too much pressure on the back before bigger matches to come.

Alex De Minaur - 6.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The majority will feel that the lack of crowd would impact the home players more than their opponents, but I do think someone like Fabio Fognini would have been inspired to take on the night crowd against an Australian hope. Instead it is going to be back to the sanitised settings that tennis players and many athletes have sadly become used to dealing with over the last several months.

While a place in the second week of a Grand Slam is motivation enough, you do have to wonder whether players will feel more of their physical exertions without having something to distract or inspire them from the stands. It is something that may be an issue for Fabio Fognini who needed almost four hours to get through his Second Round match against a compatriot, one that didn't take too kindly to Fognini's remarks at the net at the end of that five setter.

To underline my point about Fognini potentially being a player that may not enjoy this situation I point to the fact that he won just one match after the Tour resumed in 2020. He lost the other four played and I do think it is going to be a difficult match for him, more so than if Alex De Minaur had the fans cheering on every shot.

The Australian has been improving and would feel he could get the better of Fognini anyway having won both matches here in straight sets and looking really good in the process. Beating Tennys Sandgren and Pablo Cuevas are decent wins, but Alex De Minaur will need to take another step upwards if he is going to reach the second week here for the first time and back up the Quarter Final run he had at the US Open last September.

Alex De Minaur's best work tends to come on the hard courts and he will be confident in the way he has been serving and returning so far in this tournament. I have no doubt that the talented Italian will give him some problems with his quality, but Fabio Fognini's serve has tended to be more vulnerable than Alex De Minaur's and I think that makes the difference in the match.

The handicap won't be easy to cover, but I do think Fognini is perhaps going to fall away in at least one set as he does tend to allow sets to go if he wants to conserve energy for others. I do think he is capable of giving the Australian some troubles, but Alex De Minaur may pull clear for the win and the cover in what feels like a more open Men's draw than we have had for some time.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 27-25, - 2.66 Units (104 Units Staked, - 2.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 13th)

The last couple of days have been a touch frustrating as far as the Tennis Picks have been concerned and I am looking for a fightback on Thursday as the remaining Second Round matches are completed this week.

A strong Monday has been followed by disappointing Tuesday and a really poor Wednesday, but I am happy with the choices made and just needed a bit better fortunes to the selections. The worst Picks were probably from the WTA St Petersburg tournament- I should have looked past Johanna Konta until she shows she is back to full health- but largely I've been happy and a couple of moments here and there and it would have been a much better week.

I have turned around the last couple of weeks after slow starts so I am hoping this week is not going to be a reverse of those after the strong start followed by a couple of poorer days. There is still four days to go to complete the week, but I am looking for things to begin improving as soon as Thursday and put some momentum into the remainder of this week.


The remaining Second Round matches across five tournaments are set to be played on Thursday before we head into the Friday Quarter Final matches. There look to be a host of matches that are ticking the boxes for me and you can read those Tennis Picks below.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It was a very difficult match for David Goffin on Wednesday as he came from a set down to overcome home favourite Robin Haase in the First Round in Rotterdam. He had to spend virtually two and a half hours on the court to win the match and off a long week in Montpellier it may have put David Goffin in a difficult position.

Ultimately he did win and I am not sure any professional player should be exhausted after playing one long match. It is a minor factor that has to be considered especially when he is facing an opponent who has moved into the Second Round of the tournament without hitting a ball.

Jannik Sinner has plenty of eyes on his game as the 18 year old Italian looks like a star in the making on the ATP Tour. He benefited from a walkover in the First Round, but there is no doubting the kind of talent he has having produced a strong year on the hard courts in 2019.

The majority of those were at a lower level than the main ATP Tour where Sinner will still be learning. He is just 1-4 on the hard courts in 2020 and he has just had a few issues behind the serve which is going to be examined by someone like Goffin who has broken in 33% of return games played on the hard courts prior to this tournament and who managed to create ten break points in his win over Robin Haase.

It is the Jannik Sinner return which could keep him competitive as he not facing a big server in this match, but the youngster admits he is still learning and he is just 1-4 on the hard courts when playing top 50 Ranked opponents. David Goffin is someone who will give Sinner the chance to build his rhythm, but the slow start to 2020 compared with the Belgian's should give the higher Ranked player the edge.

I have every belief that Jannick Sinner is going to be a star on the ATP Tour in the years ahead, but at this moment David Goffin is perhaps a little too consistent for him. There will be moments where we see the Italian showcasing some of his talent, but I think his serve has been a little vulnerable to open 2020 and David Goffin may edge two sets here.


Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: These two players are both 22 years old and both are on their way to career best World Rankings if they can win this big Second Round match. Out of the two it is Andrey Rublev who had more expectation on his shoulders and he is moving ever closer to cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time.

A 12-1 start to 2020 is helping the young Russian, and what is an ever improving serve has been the key to the successes he is having. It was the serve that dominated Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round and it has allowed Andrey Rublev to take one or two chances when it comes to the return of serve.

The return has been pretty steady the last couple of years on this surface and Rublev looks to have picked up from where he has left off in 2019. While those numbers have been similar in 2018, 2019 and from the small sample of 2020 matches, the serve has improve in each passing year and it has given Andrey Rublev the platform from which to dominate opponents.

Alexander Bublik was also a good First Round winner, but he did not face someone as strong as Basilashvili. The Kazakhstani has enjoyed winning records on the hard courts in each of the last four seasons, but the numbers have been largely average and he is just 4-4 on the hard courts this year.

His serve has to be respected, but Bublik has held in 80% of the games played on the hard courts. It is the reason he has not been able to win more matches because the return remains a limited part of his game and it would be a huge upset if he can pull off the win on Thursday.

Andrey Rublev has won the last two hard court matches between these players and both of those matches were played in 2019. While holding serve in 85% of service games played, Rublev has restricted Alexander Bublik to 69% in those matches and that huge edge should have produced two more comfortable wins than the Russian enjoyed.

In both matches he did produce a 6-1 set though and I think an ever improving Andrey Rublev can get into a position to win this match and cover the big line at odds against. He looks to be serving very big and the Rublev return game is decent enough on the hard courts to believe he can secure a good looking win in the Second Round.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: To take the next step in his career I think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the first to admit that he needs to improve his return game on the hard courts. The big serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but it will be improvements made to the return of serve that will give the Greek superstar a chance to challenge the very best players and perhaps even start adding some Grand Slam titles to his collection.

On his day Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown he can compete with anybody on the ATP Tour, and his win at the ATP Finals shows the mentality of a Champion. However it was a poor Australian Open following a poor showing at the ATP Cup and Tsitsipas was in trouble in the First Round here in Rotterdam having dropped the opening set to Hubert Hurkacz and falling a break down in the second set.

His recovery was impressive, particularly the way he blunted what is a big serve and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to pick up confidence from the six breaks of serve converted. The return numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive from Stefanos Tsitsipas, but that was a rare day in which he excelled and it backed up what has largely been impressive serving.

The challenge to deal with a strong serve will be in front of Tsitsipas again on Thursday when he takes on Aljaz Bedene who upset Benoit Paire in the First Round. Aljaz Bedene is not that far below his career best World Ranking, but he has been an average hard court player and it is something of a surprise that he chose to miss the clay court swing in South America to play here instead.

Over the last twelve months Bedene has had better hard court numbers than clay court numbers though and his serve has been held in 86% of games played on the hard courts in 2020. Like his opponent, the return has held the Slovenian back and I do think whoever can get a bit more out of this side of their game will win.

Aljaz Bedene finished with a 5-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents last season and that has to be respected. However it is the return aspect of his game that he has really struggled and the serve is simply not as effective as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas brings to the court.

Those service numbers have taken a significant dent when Bedene has faced top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I think that will be the case here. You have to respect a player that could be dangerous with the chance of Stefanos Tsitsipas recovering breaks of serve a touch difficult with his own limitations on the return, but overall he should have the better of the match.

This is an intriguing line for the match, but the game handicap is one game less than where I would have placed it and I will look for Stefanos Tsitsipas to put another strong win in the books.


Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Go back fifteen months and Kyle Edmund was close to finishing the 2018 season and was up at a career best Number 14 in the World Rankings. Over the last twelve months the British player has struggled for consistency though and that has seen him drop back outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, although the tournament in New York offers Edmund a good chance to get some momentum back behind him.

He is only 3-3 on the hard courts in 2020 having won his First Round match here in straight sets, but Kyle Edmund has to also acknowledge he has been playing at a higher level than many of the other players in the draw here. One of those is Dominik Koepfer who is the World Number 94, although he might be playing with a bit more confidence having secured a sixth win of the 2020 season when beating last year's Finalist Brayden Schnur in the First Round.

Having a lefty serve makes Koepfer a little more awkward too, although I don't think Kyle Edmund will mind having his big forehand naturally going into the Koepfer backhand. Playing first strike tennis might be key for both players, and that is where Kyle Edmund could have the edge with his experience playing at a higher level.

As good as Dominik Koepfer's hard court numbers look on first glance, it is important to note that he spends a large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit. When he has stepped up to this level he has found his serve is not quite as effective and it is an area Kyle Edmund has to expect to have another advantage.

Confidence can be a funny thing in tennis though and my one doubt comes from the fact that Edmund does not have a lot of tournaments where he has put back to back wins together. He did do that last month in Auckland though and Edmund has beaten all three opponents he has played this season Ranked outside the top 50 and he has produced some very strong serving and returning in those matches.

His numbers are significantly stronger when taking on those players he is expected to beat over the last twelve months on the hard courts compared with his overall numbers. Kyle Edmund also is going up against Dominik Koepfer who is 4-15 in matches on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and the German has only held 75% of service games and found breaks in 14% of return games in those matches.

As I have said, confidence can lead to better than expected performances, but it would be a bigger surprise than the layers think if Kyle Edmund loses, at least as far as I am concerned. Backing the Brit to reach a second Quarter Final and cover the number is the selection.

MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-9, - 0.66 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.73% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 13th)

The tournaments continue on Wednesday and we move into the Second Round for the majority of those, although some First Round matches have also got to be played.

Tuesday proved to be a good, but not a spectacular start to the week despite a very good start to the day. The later picks in Doha, New York and Buenos Aires were not so positive but overall you can never complain about a winning start to the week.

Wednesday is going to be another busy day with a huge amount of matches scheduled. I have a full Picks written out which you can read below, but I may have to add those from Buenos Aires and New York once the markets have been put together. A number of those matches are involving players who have had to win First Round matches on Tuesday and so the layers take a little time to get the prices out on the next matches set to go.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: A couple of strong weeks have been put into the books by Daniil Medvedev and Jeremy Chardy, although it was the former who added yet another title to his collection in his young career. Last week Medvedev was barely pushed in winning the title in Sofia and that has seen the organisers in Rotterdam give him a little more time to be ready for another indoor event.

Backing up titles are tough for even the very best players on the Tour and the short turnaround from winning in Sofia and then flying to Rotterdam and getting used to the new conditions is tough for Medvedev. You have to assume Chardy has been on the site for a few more days having been beaten in the Quarter Final in Montpellier last week, but that was a good showing from the veteran Frenchman and he has something to build upon as he looks to improve his Ranking to the point of being Seeded at the bigger events coming up in the months ahead.

The goal for Medvedev is bigger than that this season as he looks to push on and perhaps challenge for a place in the ATP Tour Finals. He is one of a number of young players looking to take the next step in their career, but Medvedev has arguably opened 2019 in the best form of the likes of Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov, even if it is Tsitsipas who has had the run that has made the most impact on the Tour when reaching the Australian Open Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev has been looking after his own serve incredibly well over the last six weeks on the hard courts and an almost 87% hold rate is a strong showing. However the reason Medvedev has reached two Finals and won a title is because of the way he has been returning and the Russian has managed to break serve in 31% of return games on the surface which is a really good number.

The returning side of his game has really improved over the last thirteen months and that makes Medvedev a tough out for anyone not Ranked in the top 10 at the moment. He gave Novak Djokovic plenty of things to think about in their match at the Australian Open and that percentage of games where he has broken serve is almost double what Jeremy Chardy has produced at 17%.

In the last year Chardy has found the return of serve a little difficult on the hard courts and it does put a lot of pressure on him to find his best with the ball in hand. So far he is holding at 85% on the season on this surface, but I think that number will drop over the weeks and months ahead and this is going to be a tough challenge for him if Medvedev is feeling fresh and seeing the ball as well as he has been so far in 2019.

Plus in this match Chardy is taking on one of the better players on the Tour and he has not exactly thrived in this spot on the hard courts. Since the start of the 2017 season Chardy has played fourteen matches against players Ranked in the top 20 on the hard courts and his record is 3-11. In those matches the Frenchman's hold percentage drops significantly to 70% and his break percentage is down to 12% and that is not going to cut it against an in-form Medvedev who has played some strong tennis on this surface.

Fatigue is a concern, but Medvedev should be ready to go on Wednesday after playing the Sofia Final on Sunday and I think he will have too much power on the return for Chardy to deal with. I expect Medvedev to make enough balls back in play to get into rallies and break down Chardy and I think he can cover the big looking number on his way to another win in 2019.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: The title win in Montpellier was an important one for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if only to give him a real boost in confidence on his return to the Tour after a long injury issue meant playing just six matches at the back end of the 2018 season after being away from the Tour since March.

It helped to bring his World Ranking back up to Number 140 and the next few months are going to be a good chance for Tsonga to start making a significant move up the Rankings. With no points to defend everything he earns goes to improving that Ranking, but the danger is that he won't be Seeded at some of the big events coming up and thus could end up playing the likes of Novak Djokovic very early in the draws as he did at the Australian Open.

The Frenchman is not ready to compete with the likes of Djokovic just yet, but he was in great form last week in Montpellier as he continues to play some of his best tennis in front of home supporters. This week Tsonga has used his Protected Ranking to enter the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam and this is a tournament he has enjoyed in the past having reached one Final and also winning the title here when last competing at the event in 2017.

Tsonga has had a few days to get ready for this tournament and he should be well rested having not really been pushed too hard in the Semi Final or Final in Montpellier. That will help as will as the booming serve which has helped Tsonga win 70% of the points behind that shot as well as holding serve at just under 88% of the time. Take away the loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and you can see how important the serve has been to Tsonga and also covers up some of the deficiencies when it comes to the return of serve.

It is an area that Italian Thomas Fabbiano will try and expose especially as he has been showing some decent serving numbers in 2019. Over the last twelve months Fabbiano has a strong record on the hard courts, but his overall numbers have been boosted by the Challenger and Qualifying events he has participated in.

He still needs to be respected when you think he is holding at around 80% over the last twelve months in main ATP matches on the hard courts, but the returning numbers have been slightly down on what Tsonga is able to produce. That could be the key to the match with Tsonga likely able to get a little more consistency out of his serve compared with Fabbiano and the pressure build up may just see the Italian crack at times.

Unlike Tsonga, Fabbiano is going to have to work hard to make sure he is looking after his service games and can't rely on the cheap points that Tsonga is able to pick up. It does leave him vulnerable is Tsonga is rattling through games and I think the favourite can be backed to cover a number I would not usually be comfortable backing Tsonga to do so.

This could be fairly tight in terms of the cover, but I do think if Tsonga looks after his own serve as he has been doing he should get the chances to do that. The Fabbiano serve will be similar to the likes of Radu Albot and Gilles Simon and both of those players were broken down by Tsonga in Montpellier last week and I will look for him to do the same to the Italian here.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The Second Round gets underway at the ATP Rotterdam tournament on Wednesday and it is Gael Monfils who will be playing on back to back days. He battled hard to get past David Goffin in the First Round and now the Frenchman will be favoured to beat Andreas Seppi in this match.

It has been a good start to 2019 for Monfils who is looking to get his World Ranking moving back in a positive direction. The run to the Semi Final in Sofia last week was important for Monfils and the character shown in the First Round suggests he is looking to back up that week with another strong showing in Rotterdam having reached the Final when he last played in the event.

The serve has been a big weapon for Monfils who is holding at 84% so far in 2019 but he will feel there is some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve. The percentage of return points won has remained pretty steady since 2017, but Monfils would love to up the break percentage from the current 25% mark he is operating at.

It won't be easy to do that on the hard courts over the course of 2019, but Monfils should have some success facing Andreas Seppi who is holding serve at below 80% on the hard courts so far this season. That is slightly down on his 2017 and 2018 numbers, but the veteran is surely going to take a step back down in level of performance too and this may be the start of that.

The Italian has been returning well enough from the small sample we have from the first six weeks of the season, but Seppi has to find a way to get into the Monfils service games in this Second Round match. He has just been a little inconsistent when it comes to return games over the last few weeks, but Seppi did battle through a difficult First Round match that could give him some confidence to take into the match.

This is actually the seventh time these players are facing one another, but the last of those was some time ago and I am not sure those head to head stats are that relevant. Andreas Seppi beat Gael Monfils when they last met on a hard court in 2012, but that is a long time ago now and I do think Seppi is not quite as good as he once was.

We should be expecting a competitive match between these two players, but it looks like Monfils has a slight edge when it comes to the serve and the return of serve and that should add up to a win for the Frenchman. As long as he is not feeling too tired from his exertions in beating David Goffin I think Monfils is going to be working into a position to beat Andreas Seppi and also cover this number in the victory.


Julia Goerges - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: Over the last couple of years Julia Goerges has begun to show some serious form on the hard courts and she is now one of the better players on this surface on the WTA Tour. The German is still capable of producing a really poor performance on any given day and her return game needs work but Goerges has a serve that gives her every chance of winning matches on the hard courts.

When that serve is firing Goerges can be very difficult to stay with and she showed that by saving all eight break points faced in her First Round win over Qualifier Alja Tomljanovic on Tuesday. The first serve is a particularly strong weapon for Julia Goerges and she is going to need to see that shot at its best if she is going to beat Alison Riske in the Second Round.

The American has been given a second chance to enter the draw after losing in the Qualifiers and earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot in the main draw. She took full advantage by winning her First Round match and Alison Riske is playing well enough in 2019 to believe she can challenge one of the top players on the WTA Tour.

Her return game has mainly been much better than the Goerges return game in 2019, but you can't ignore the kind of level of opponents both have played. When Alison Riske has been asked to step up and play a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts since January 2017 she has struggled to maintain those return numbers and that puts too much pressure on her to produce a big serving day.

In those matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, Riske is 3-8 but her service numbers and return numbers take a big hit. The latter drops from around a 43% of return points won to 39% when facing those better players and it is going to be a real test for her to get involved in the Goerges service games considering how the latter has been playing.

I can't ignore the Goerges numbers which sees her winning around 41% of return points on the hard courts and that means a good serving day from Riske will give her the chance of the upset. However I can see the pressure building up thanks to the Goerges serve and that may see Riske go for a little more to protect her own serve and also begun to be picked off as she heads towards the net to shorten points.

In their one previous match, which was also played on the hard courts, it was the Goerges serve that dominated and she was able to break Riske four times in that match in Miami in 2017. I expect Goerges to have the majority of break points in this one too and I think she can make her way through to the Quarter Final with a good looking win that sees her cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 2.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.38% Yield)